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Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day. If Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot com the radio plus mobile lapp and on your radio,

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Speaker 1: this is a Bloomberg Business flash and I'm Karen Moscow.

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Speaker 1: This updates brought to you by National Realty Returns on

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Speaker 1: cash and rented real estate find them at n r

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Speaker 1: i A dot net, US and European stocks, gaining him

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Speaker 1: his speculation that the recent selloff was overdone as investors

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Speaker 1: look past lashes in Asian markets triggered by a weekending

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Speaker 1: u Wan. Crude oil is rising and we checked the

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Speaker 1: markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: s and P five hundred up seven tenths per cent

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Speaker 1: or thirteen points to nineteen o eight down Jones Industrial

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Speaker 1: average of seven tenths percent or one hundred ten points

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Speaker 1: to sixteen thousand, three hundred five. Nasdacs up seven tenths

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Speaker 1: percent or thirty one points to forty four sixty six

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Speaker 1: ten year Treasury down eleven thirty seconds. The yield one

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Speaker 1: point eight one percent yield on the two year points

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Speaker 1: seven four percent. Ninemex scrude oil up two point four

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Speaker 1: percent or sixty eight cents to seventy three a barrel

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Speaker 1: comes gold is up three ten percent or three dollars

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Speaker 1: eighty cents to twelve nine announced the euro and dollar

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Speaker 1: eleven thirty five the end one fourteen point one eight.

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Speaker 1: US manufacturing output rising in January by the most since

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Speaker 1: July fifteen. The half percent advanced at factories, which make

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Speaker 1: up sev of all production, followed a two ten percent

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Speaker 1: decrease the prior month, and price lying among the best

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Speaker 1: performer in the SMP five hundred today, the largest US

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Speaker 1: online travel agent jumping as much as sixteen percent after

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Speaker 1: reporting fourth quarter earnings at beat analysts estimates. It's now

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Speaker 1: up ten and a half percent. And that's a Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: business flash, Tom and Mike, Thank you, Karen, Tom. How's

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Speaker 1: this for a prediction? Sisan Garamoni, president of sth Macro Advisors,

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Speaker 1: sent a note doubt lest Thursday, I believe, saying that

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Speaker 1: within hours he expected there to be an announcement of

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Speaker 1: a piece deal in Syria, a cease fire, not a

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Speaker 1: peace deal, but a cease fire, and that that would

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Speaker 1: be followed by a Russian Saudi agreement on oil. Very prescient.

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Speaker 1: He did not say that they would be cutting oil significantly,

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Speaker 1: or that there would be peace in the Middle East.

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Speaker 1: But those two things were forecasts ahead of time, so

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Speaker 1: we wanted to bring Sasan on and say, well, if

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Speaker 1: you got that right, what's next? Where do you see

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Speaker 1: all of this going from here? Sas Hi, Mike, thank

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Speaker 1: you very much for having me on, and I appreciate

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Speaker 1: the the very nice introduction. Well, we think that the

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Speaker 1: the the oil agreement or the oil discussions now are

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Speaker 1: a very very very significant development for macro markets, for

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Speaker 1: oil markets. UH. And if there's kind of one message

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Speaker 1: that I would like your viewers to take away is

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Speaker 1: that I think a lot of what you were seeing

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Speaker 1: and a lot of the skepticism that you're reading about,

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Speaker 1: you know, sort of having an oil freeze between Russia

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Speaker 1: and Saudi Arabia, UH, this is to a large extent analysts,

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Speaker 1: I think are missing the fourth through the trees here

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Speaker 1: and we are potentially, you know, on on a one

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Speaker 1: of the bigger macro traits of the of the year

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Speaker 1: and one that impacts all markets, global markets. And the

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Speaker 1: shift that occurred wasn't really um last week, had actually

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Speaker 1: started a little earlier in January, UH in Saudi Arabia,

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Speaker 1: and that was essentially a subtle but very important shift

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Speaker 1: from the policy that they had vowed to pursue. If

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Speaker 1: everybody recalls that the HPEC meeting where they sort of

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Speaker 1: pulled the rugouts from under oil prices and said that

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Speaker 1: they are basically pursuing a maximum production policy and that

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Speaker 1: they would not, uh, you sacrifice market share to the

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Speaker 1: quote unquote high cost producers, which you know, people can

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Speaker 1: interpret as Russia, can interpret as shale can interpret as

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Speaker 1: as all of the above, causing the plunge in prices

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Speaker 1: down to the levels that we've seen recently. Um, what

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Speaker 1: happened is clearly the strain on finances among all the

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Speaker 1: oil producers in Saudi Arabia specifically, as well as in

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Speaker 1: other countries. And uh, what has happened once we sort

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Speaker 1: of reached this thirty dollar ish level in oil and

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Speaker 1: it was a big wake up call for everybody to

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Speaker 1: start to for the producers to start talking among themselves

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Speaker 1: and to see how they could tidy up the market.

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Speaker 1: So it's a state, big shift. So sign you have

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Speaker 1: such a heritage with your Iran attending a whole set

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Speaker 1: of schools is the is the offspring of of of

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Speaker 1: a diplomat the Anglo American School of Moscow, Tehran International School,

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Speaker 1: and the acclaimed American School of Madrid. What do we

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Speaker 1: most get wrong about your Iran? Uh? Thank you very much,

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Speaker 1: tom Uh. I think what people get wrong most about

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Speaker 1: Iran is that the the Islamic Republic is a very

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Speaker 1: pragmatic UH leadership and they are it is a post

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Speaker 1: revolutionary leadership. You're in the second and third generation. And

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Speaker 1: I think this is a holdover really from the nineteen

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Speaker 1: eighties from you know, from Homany, from the very sort

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Speaker 1: of messianic government that that that ran Iran at the time,

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Speaker 1: that to one that has turned into basically a government

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Speaker 1: that's really trying to protect its own self interests and

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Speaker 1: it is in a bit of a defensive position quite frankly,

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Speaker 1: but economically visa the world and so on. And so

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Speaker 1: you know, I have a very good friend, Karen Saidjapoor,

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Speaker 1: and I will borrow quotes that that he uses and

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Speaker 1: you may have spoken to him before, and he says,

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Speaker 1: the people think that the Iranian regime is UH is suicidal,

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Speaker 1: but it's not. So it might be homicidal, but it's

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Speaker 1: not suicidal. And I think this is business is business,

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Speaker 1: That's what people miss well, some people have suggested that

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Speaker 1: the big issue, or one of the big issues of

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Speaker 1: the next couple of years, it's going to be the

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Speaker 1: Iranian face off with the saudiast in the Middle East.

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Speaker 1: Proxy war underway in Syria already. How do you see

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Speaker 1: that playing out? Uh, that's that is a there is

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Speaker 1: already a proxy war, and and and and it's been

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Speaker 1: going on for a long time. As I'm sure you're

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Speaker 1: all aware. It's not just in Syria, it's in it's

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Speaker 1: in Yemen. Uh. And those are really kind of a

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Speaker 1: big hot spots. You know, to a lesser extent, there's

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Speaker 1: some skirmishes and you know, lemon on occasionally and so on,

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Speaker 1: but those are the two big hot spots. And um,

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Speaker 1: what has happening now that that and I would say

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Speaker 1: it's it's it's almost a hot war. People underestimate people

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Speaker 1: are There's been a lot of articles about the Hesbalah

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Speaker 1: involved in Interia, but the Saudis have been funneling an

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Speaker 1: enormous amount of military capability into into the region. And

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Speaker 1: what's happening there is that the Saudi um young Deputy

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Speaker 1: Crown Prince mom and been Salmon has I think he's

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Speaker 1: overextended it a little bit, and this is one of

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Speaker 1: the issues. And uh, the U s policy, to put

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Speaker 1: it in a nutshell on Syria is quite frankly too

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Speaker 1: sort of trying to extricate ourselves from the from from them,

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Speaker 1: from the region. And so what what we are seeing

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Speaker 1: his you know, the Saudis talk about sending troops. This

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Speaker 1: is the biggest news that you've seen recently is there's

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Speaker 1: been an ESCALATIONE will you see the action to go

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Speaker 1: with the talk. I think they're hesitant to do that,

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Speaker 1: and I think it's it's limited. This is a and

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Speaker 1: there it goes back to my earlier point that I

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Speaker 1: think they are a little bit over extended. Uh, Yemen

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Speaker 1: is a you know, it's that bogged on in Yemen

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Speaker 1: and Syria. You know, quite frankly, the Russians are doing

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Speaker 1: some mop up operations on Alempa right now. The studies

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Speaker 1: are hiding behind the US on this saying will send

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Speaker 1: it if there's a US left, watch for that, even

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Speaker 1: if there's the carnage in supply demand. Microeconomics of oil

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Speaker 1: the sun Grimani, is there a geopolitical amount in the

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Speaker 1: price of oil at thirty dollars a barrel. Do you

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Speaker 1: have X amount of dollars? Is geopolitical risk or is

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Speaker 1: that an analysis of another era. I don't think there's

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Speaker 1: I don't think we have a extra bid and oil

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Speaker 1: right now because of geopolitical risk. I think it's actually

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Speaker 1: maybe even a little bit the opposite. And you know,

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Speaker 1: we've we've put out these reports since January. We've we've

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Speaker 1: seen some bottoming of oil UM. He's saw some spike

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Speaker 1: up off the lows. But I think there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of skepticism of anything in the oil markets UM right now.

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Speaker 1: And you're seeing that in the response to so that

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Speaker 1: these latest developments. What about Russia, what about China? What

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Speaker 1: about Iran? Yes, yes, but this is a long process.

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Speaker 1: This is a confidence building, trust building process between big

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Speaker 1: rivals UM and and quite frankly enemies, but for practical reasons,

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Speaker 1: and we are going into a maintenance season and I

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Speaker 1: think it's uh that we could there there their objectives

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Speaker 1: have been lowered. The Satis everybody would be more than

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Speaker 1: happy to see oil at fifty dollar region now and

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Speaker 1: I see that as very very plausible. I think we

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Speaker 1: could would see that through the course of you know,

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Speaker 1: over the next right, son, Thank you so much, Sincen

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Speaker 1: Garrimani s g H. Macro Advisors, particularly there on the

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Speaker 1: next marginal barrel, which I believe is heading out of

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Speaker 1: Tehran uh in the number of weeks, this has been

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Speaker 1: a most interesting day. Thank you for your many comments

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Speaker 1: on the appearance of the president, the newly minted president

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Speaker 1: of the Minneapoplis Fed Nil Kushki. We got a lot

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Speaker 1: of headlines out of that and really strong language from

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Speaker 1: him on a symposium a are full measured analysis that

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Speaker 1: will be done by his Minneapolis Fed on our larger banks.

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Speaker 1: That certainly was an important speech at Brooker's. Congratulations to

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Speaker 1: David Wessele and Brookings Institution for really driving forward this

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Speaker 1: conversation as they have in the list forty eight hours.

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Speaker 1: With that, we say good morning Washington, Bloomberg ninety nine

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Speaker 1: point one FM, Bloomberg tw Boston Waking Up nine sixty

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Speaker 1: the Bay Area, Good morning Corey and Carol on here

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Speaker 1: in a moment, and of course Bloomberg eleven three. Always gorgeous,

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Speaker 1: spring like New York today. I guess it's winter, but

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Speaker 1: it's certainly on the edge of spring as well. The

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Speaker 1: market has that left to at up thirty five sixteen

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Speaker 1: thousand three and thirty one, the VICS Better twenty three

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Speaker 1: point five four and by point five seven Vicks Points

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Speaker 1: West Texas and the media Fragile Earlier Think five am

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Speaker 1: twenty nine cents up sixty four cents of a crewed

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Speaker 1: thirty three oh six barrel. We are produced by y

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Speaker 1: U N. Ken Felio, our global technical director from New York.

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Speaker 1: It's Bloomberg Surveillance