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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast. All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go.

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Speaker 2: Spreading the court ten seconds or mainings can just go

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Speaker 2: show me up to the basket. Under the basket, it's.

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Speaker 3: The truit for the wind God a miracle.

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Speaker 4: I just chuck the water.

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Speaker 1: Hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by

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Speaker 2: bet MGM. I am your host, Kai McEwan, joined by

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Speaker 2: the rest of the Three Men Weave, Crew Metcox and

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Speaker 2: Jim Root. Today we are cannonballing into the deep end

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Speaker 2: of the Sweet sixteen, previewing every game on both Thursday

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Speaker 2: and Friday. Goliath or Cinderella, it's win or go home.

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Speaker 2: We're talking sides, maybe some totals, and of course any

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Speaker 2: possible props that might jump out to us. Not really

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Speaker 2: a prop group the Three Men Weave, but you never

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Speaker 2: know where you can find value in March madness. Let's

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Speaker 2: jump right into it chronological order. We are starting with

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Speaker 2: the Thursday games with Michigan State and Kansas State six

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Speaker 2: thirty pm Eastern Tip in New York City.

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Speaker 1: Jim Root, what do you got, Well, yeah, we've got

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Speaker 1: the surprise line here. Michigan State favorite I don't think

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Speaker 1: many people expected that Kansas State was an underdog to Kentucky. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I sort of saw that given the talent level of Kentucky,

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Speaker 1: but seeing Kansas State a dog to Michigan State really

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Speaker 1: raised an eyebrow. I guess they're giving Michigan State a

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Speaker 1: lot of credit for the time they played without Molie Call.

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Speaker 1: From a predictive standpoint, it's interesting Matt Sparty is here

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Speaker 1: in the sweet sixteen despite having shot terribly from beyond

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Speaker 1: the arc, and that's kind of been their calling card

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Speaker 1: all year. They don't take a ton. They're not like

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Speaker 1: Mega reliant on the three, but they have been a

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Speaker 1: top ten three point shooting team all season. By efficiency,

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Speaker 1: that hasn't been the case. Their two point defense has

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Speaker 1: been dominant to the stage. Really an impressive work by

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Speaker 1: so Soco, Houser, Hall and the paint taking that away

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Speaker 1: from both of their first two opponents. I just think

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Speaker 1: that's going to be really tough against Kansas State, who

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Speaker 1: is much more dynamic offensively. They've got the two best

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Speaker 1: players on the floor. Noel Speed really took over against Kentucky,

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Speaker 1: can't they. Johnson didn't even have that good of a

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Speaker 1: game and they still moved on against the Wildcats. I

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Speaker 1: can't help it. I like Kansas State getting points here

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Speaker 1: with arguably the two best players on the floor, and

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Speaker 1: I don't feel like this is any sort of coaching

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Speaker 1: mismatch with Izovers, a first year guy. I'm ran with

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Speaker 1: Tang Matthew Tang Gang for me.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this one's tough. Like the Michigan State scoring. It's

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Speaker 4: weird to think of Michigan State as an offensive leaning team,

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Speaker 4: and that's kind of what they've turned into down the

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Speaker 4: stretch to to fuel their recent run here. Just the

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Speaker 4: shot making of Hogarden Walker. I know they haven't shot

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Speaker 4: well from three to date, but every team has been

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Speaker 4: kind of suffering from that same three point regression lull.

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Speaker 4: It's been a lot's been made of how poor three

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Speaker 4: point shooting has been in the tournament so far. They've

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Speaker 4: made a lot of mid range tough shots though, and

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Speaker 4: tough twos in clutch moments. I think you have two

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Speaker 4: guards that had that clutch team Michigan State. KSE State

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Speaker 4: only has one, but I like the one on k

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Speaker 4: State side. I mean Noel just the way he's playing,

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Speaker 4: the way he can get into the teeth, the defense

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Speaker 4: completely car people up. I am trusting ky State here.

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Speaker 4: I cannot believe that kuy have been an anti k

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Speaker 4: State guy all season. Michigan State, I think played very

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Speaker 4: well in those first two rounds. I think they benefited

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Speaker 4: from really really poor efforts from USC and a Marquette

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Speaker 4: team that was playing without their best player at one

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Speaker 4: hundred percent, who also played his worst game of the season.

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Speaker 4: So I'm kind of poking holes in the two games

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Speaker 4: it took Smart to get here and more impressed with

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Speaker 4: I guess k State's efforts.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of agree that too. Weirdly, even though

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Speaker 2: Michigan State played Marquette. Yeah, I have no clue why

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Speaker 2: Michigan State's favored. Honestly, it makes no sense to me.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying to break it down and like understand the

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Speaker 2: bookmakers process here. I just don't get it. KSE State's

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Speaker 2: higher and kimpom they're the better seed. They're hiring Bart

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Speaker 2: Torvik since February fifteenth. I don't understand. I don't get

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Speaker 2: the dis back for Kansas State. Mark Easton, well, this

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Speaker 2: is a huge opportunity for him. He's from New York City.

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Speaker 3: It's a big moment. We love guards in March, and

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Speaker 3: this would be a great story for him to win

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Speaker 3: this game.

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Speaker 2: Coaching pretty near even for me. I'm a big Tang guy.

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Speaker 2: That's how much I like Tang. I'm putting him pretty

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Speaker 2: close to Izzo on that tier. I'm just not scared

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Speaker 2: in Michigan State, man, they're solid on both ends, but

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Speaker 2: they're not elite. Case State is near elite on defense.

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Speaker 2: They scraped, they work hard. I took the cats, guys,

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Speaker 2: I found a plus two and I jumped on it.

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Speaker 2: Kansas State for me. There you go, Kai.

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Speaker 1: We're seeing some action come in on Case State as

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Speaker 1: we record down to one and a half. As we're

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Speaker 1: recording on Wednesday morning, Pacific time, seeing a little bit

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Speaker 1: of buyback. The one other angle worth mentioning this is

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Speaker 1: one of the few totals in this entire tournament that's

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Speaker 1: been but up a little bit from openers at certain places.

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Speaker 1: Considering how strong the unders have been. Are you guys

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Speaker 1: feeling the over real quick, Kai, or are you thinking

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Speaker 1: let's just keep riding the undertrain?

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Speaker 2: And yeah, I don't have much of a feel here.

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Speaker 2: Didn't overs do really well last round? Taking my bowling,

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Speaker 2: especially on Saturday.

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Speaker 3: I think it's Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Unders, but Sunday had had quite a few overs.

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Speaker 2: Not a huge feel here, I guess Gud says under.

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Speaker 2: Now the team wows me offensively, so I just kind

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Speaker 2: of leaned towards that way, but nothing strong there on

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Speaker 2: the on the total. I heard Jim Adam Burke over

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Speaker 2: at Easton talk about high MSG is known as an

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Speaker 2: under venue for especially in college games. Interesting to see

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Speaker 2: this game, but the other game in this region we'll

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Speaker 2: talk about was was met pretty heavy to the under.

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Speaker 2: So I guess just I'm going to keep in mind

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Speaker 2: if you're into those venue related angles controls tempo.

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Speaker 1: They did the same thing to Marquette. That was a

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Speaker 1: relatively easy under until some of the late shot making.

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Speaker 1: So Kayli, I lean towards the under on that one

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Speaker 1: as well.

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Speaker 2: Right on, right on, Let's continue with Arkansas Yukon. Jim,

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Speaker 2: you're going to be at this game in Vegas. What

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Speaker 2: an awesome set of games you get to see in Vegas.

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Speaker 2: We'll talk about the next one just a little bit.

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Speaker 2: But Arkansas versus Yukon, Yukon favored by four. Now across

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Speaker 2: the board, it was three and a half this morning.

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Speaker 2: The Yukon's taking a bit of money here. I even

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Speaker 2: see some four and a half out there for the Huskies.

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Speaker 1: Worth noting.

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Speaker 2: Kim Pom does make this one, I think five or six.

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Speaker 2: I have not checked recently on that one. Matthew, we're

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Speaker 2: going to you first. Who do you like in this game?

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Speaker 3: Also, total wise, we're sitting around one thirty nine.

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Speaker 4: Went back and forth in this one as well. I

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Speaker 4: think the market's pretty sharp on both side and total here.

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Speaker 4: I think Connecticut was the more impressive team, to be honest,

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Speaker 4: in the first two. Obviously, both teams for Megan impressive.

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Speaker 4: Arkansas beating Kansas is no joke, but just the way

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Speaker 4: Yukon responded to two really really tough coaching challenges, a

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Speaker 4: ton of pressure eyeballs on that program with Dan Hurley's

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Speaker 4: early tournament failures, takes care of my own easily, you know,

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Speaker 4: renowned tournament coach and Rick Patino. They put away Saint

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Speaker 4: Mary's pretty easily too. I mean, obviously fifteen points, it

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Speaker 4: was closer later than I think. Maybe the final score

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Speaker 4: indicates that's a hard team to blow out, and to

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Speaker 4: do it on a neutral's court. To see them making shots, Jim,

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Speaker 4: I think that actually carries over here at that momentum.

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Speaker 3: The talent gap here not very big Arkansas.

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Speaker 4: I think that's what kind of gave them the edge

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Speaker 4: against Kansas is just pound for pound, Arkansas may have

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Speaker 4: been the more talented team, even though Kansas kind of

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Speaker 4: has that championship pedigree. I think the talent gap here

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Speaker 4: rises for Yukon. That negates what's helped Arkansas get to

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Speaker 4: this point and I will probably be losing money betting

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Speaker 4: against Eric Musselman in the tournament for the third straight year.

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Speaker 1: Jim Hey, he's only seven and eight against the spread

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Speaker 1: in the tournament because it's not some master class muscleman.

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Speaker 1: Impossible to top him in March. I think he's like

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Speaker 1: three of his last four, but even some of the

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Speaker 1: wins to get to the Elite eight. In the past,

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Speaker 1: he hasn't covered those spreads, so it's not like it's

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Speaker 1: an auto be muscleman. You mentioned the shot making for Yukon.

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Speaker 1: Kay said it all year. When this team makes shots,

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Speaker 1: they are unbeatable, and they've been over forty percent in

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Speaker 1: both of their first two games from beyond the arc.

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Speaker 1: Last game against Saint Mary's, you got to combine seven

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Speaker 1: for nine from Newton and Hawkins that is nearly impossible

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Speaker 1: to stop, especially with the way Sunoga was playing bullyball.

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Speaker 1: This is probably my least confident game from a side

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Speaker 1: perspective in this round. A slight lean towards Arkansas, but

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Speaker 1: it's just hard to trust either team. For me, I

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Speaker 1: don't feel great about the shot decision making, the shot

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Speaker 1: selection for each team. That really is where I get

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Speaker 1: stuck KAI So maybe I lean to the under on

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Speaker 1: the total, but gosh, this one is a real challenge

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Speaker 1: I think to handicap.

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Speaker 2: I agree Eric Musselman. By the way, another double digit

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Speaker 2: down victory for them Arkansas. They're done twelve to KU

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Speaker 2: fifteen minutes left and they win outright. And he does

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Speaker 2: this every single tournament. I don't get it. I don't understand.

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Speaker 2: It's almost like you don't want to be up by

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Speaker 2: ten or more against Arkansas because you know they're going

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Speaker 2: to come back and win.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I agree with Matt here, Arkansas extremely talented, Yukon pretty close.

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Speaker 2: Arkansas that doesn't play like a team. Man, I think it's

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Speaker 2: more individuals out there than it is a team. Their

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Speaker 2: lack of shooting is going to be really tough against Yukon.

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Speaker 2: You cannot score inside against Yukon, perhaps to get to

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Speaker 2: the line. Yukon does have quite a high foul rate,

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Speaker 2: and Arkansas has been known to have success from the

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Speaker 2: free throw line this season, but Yukon has the glass advantage. Again,

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Speaker 2: Jim mentioned it too when they hit shots. They're the

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Speaker 2: best team in the country. They were at their peak.

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Speaker 2: They have that top gear. I'm not sure Arkansas does.

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Speaker 2: So I do like Yukon here a little bit, but

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Speaker 2: I am scared to fade the horseshoe up muss buses.

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Speaker 1: But there you go.

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Speaker 3: How about that for a line.

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Speaker 1: I just don't get why he's not playing Nick Smith again,

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Speaker 1: like he's back in the dog house. There no points

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Speaker 1: against Kansas. I thought the best version of Arkansas would

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Speaker 1: involve Nick Smith, and it didn't against Kansas. But I

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Speaker 1: think they need him that they're going to beat Yukon.

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Speaker 1: So if he continues to be in the doghouse, I

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Speaker 1: do lean the Huskies potentially on a lie. I bet

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Speaker 1: there if it seems like he's.

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Speaker 2: Just going to be benched, absolutely next one fau Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: I'm glad we got the Als guys to the Sweet sixteen.

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Speaker 2: No offense to Fairley Dickinson. We've been on the Ford

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Speaker 2: Atlantic train all season long. Heck, Matt's been to a

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Speaker 2: game in person. This one tips off in New York

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Speaker 2: City after Michigan State Kansas State at nine pm Eastern.

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Speaker 2: Realistically probably a little bit after that. The line out

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Speaker 2: there five and a half, pretty much across the board

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Speaker 2: in favor of the Valls. Got a pretty low total here,

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Speaker 2: one thirty and a half, one thirty one. Jim I said,

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Speaker 2: I'd basically take FAU blind because I love them so much,

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Speaker 2: but I will admit four or five is kind of low.

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Speaker 3: Five five and a half. But it's a really good team.

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Speaker 3: What do you think?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I thought it would be more, but then Kenhbb's

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Speaker 1: got it four, which is shocking.

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Speaker 3: Wow.

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Speaker 1: And that's if you factor in the year long of

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Speaker 1: having Ziegeler and whether you think this Tennessee version is

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Speaker 1: significantly worse or even a little bit worse. That tells

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Speaker 1: me more towards three, three and a half. But FA

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Speaker 1: used to spend that good and I think this is

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Speaker 1: a problem matchup for Tennessee. They have not played teams

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Speaker 1: that can shoot all year. In the SEC, they did

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Speaker 1: not play a team that could shoot in duke in

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Speaker 1: the round to thirty two. The Cajuns could a little

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Speaker 1: bit in the first round. They don't prefer to do that,

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Speaker 1: but they can shoot, and I think that helped them

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Speaker 1: keep that close a little bit. Now, you take an

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Speaker 1: FA who just lives to space the floor four out

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Speaker 1: with a bunch of different playmakers, a bunch of different creators.

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Speaker 1: I think FAU can shoot and stay in this and

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Speaker 1: kind of give Tennessee a little bit of a root

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Speaker 1: awakening from the perimeter. It's just can they handle the toughness,

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Speaker 1: the physicality that Tennessee is going to bring. That's what

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Speaker 1: kind of punk duke. I'm sure Plovsik who's going to

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Speaker 1: hit Golden in the face with an elbow early to

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Speaker 1: try to set the tone. Golden is no slouch, though

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Speaker 1: I don't expect him to back down, and Dusty may

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Speaker 1: joke that they were going to watch rugby to prepare

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Speaker 1: for this one and this potential matchup against the brawlers

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Speaker 1: that Tennessee throws out there. I think they're up to

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Speaker 1: the task. Matt the depth, two headed monster they have

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Speaker 1: up front to use fouls if need be. It could

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Speaker 1: be tough on the defensive glass given the size athleticism

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Speaker 1: the Tennessee throws at you in waves. But I just

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Speaker 1: trust Fau's offense, the game plan, and their ability to

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Speaker 1: step up in that physicality class. Look, they already be

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Speaker 1: at Memphis, that's a physical monster. I don't think there's

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Speaker 1: anything crazy new to them. I like Fau back in

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Speaker 1: the underdog position here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I have a million reasons why I

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Speaker 4: love Fau in general and in this game. But I

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Speaker 4: want to hit on two things that I think are

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Speaker 4: going to ultimately dictate the outcome.

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Speaker 3: I first is how this game is refereed.

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Speaker 4: The whistle, which I thought really was the prevailing edge

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Speaker 4: for Tennessee against Duke. I'm not saying, you know, you

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Speaker 4: can litigate how loose or how you know accurate the

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Speaker 4: whistle is called in that game. If the refs let

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Speaker 4: the boys play, Tennessee will certainly have a big edge

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Speaker 4: in this game, just.

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Speaker 1: The way it's going to go two hundred and forty

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Speaker 1: fifth nationally and defensive free throw rate and they committed

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Speaker 1: eleven fouls versus total total.

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Speaker 4: Both had total right, which I mean the since they

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Speaker 4: committed they committed more than that, they just weren't called.

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Speaker 4: Let's just call it how it was. But again, I

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Speaker 4: think that's kind of the thing with the sec rights.

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Speaker 4: They come out of that league where you know, the

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Speaker 4: referees come from everywhere, and this just sort of you

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Speaker 4: don't know what you're gonna get. We'll see how it's called.

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Speaker 4: I think the whistle being whistled like it was against

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Speaker 4: Duke gives a huge edge to Tennessee. Whoever, I think

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Speaker 4: FAU is up to the physical boxing match challenge, unlike Duke.

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Speaker 4: Like this FAU team, they're not big, but they're older

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Speaker 4: than Duke. I think people talk about FAU being a

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Speaker 4: young team, but their freshman sophomores or like COVID freshman sophomores,

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Speaker 4: they're not like the Green Green just out of high school,

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Speaker 4: grassroot guys like Proctor, who like is seventeen and you

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Speaker 4: know in Whitehead. So I think in Philipowski, I think

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Speaker 4: FAU actually has like some real grit to them, even

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Speaker 4: though they're not all that big. I worry though kai

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Speaker 4: fa use one matchup issue this season was Middle Tennessee

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Speaker 4: kind of a physical type of team that that's kind

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Speaker 4: of how they make their pay and they struggle to

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Speaker 4: kind of get separation from them and their two wins,

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Speaker 4: they actually lost to them on the road. I look

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Speaker 4: at that as a precedent that gives me some pause.

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Speaker 4: But I've been all in on this FAU team all year.

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Speaker 4: I just trust the mojo they have right now. Now

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Speaker 4: they're back as the underdog spot after the being the

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Speaker 4: favorite the villain against FTU Man. I just like that

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Speaker 4: they make some shots get out in transition. I think

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Speaker 4: they actually can pull off the upset here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I do too.

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Speaker 2: But Jim's point about the rugby game, what may said

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Speaker 2: and miss presser and your point about if the rest

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Speaker 2: call this in Tennessee's favor, it's gonna be really a

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Speaker 2: really big channel. I think because of how physical, how tough,

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Speaker 2: how rough dirty, maybe Tennessee plays. If the refs aren't

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Speaker 2: calling it close, they can be anybody in the country.

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00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:14,079
Speaker 2: They're that physical and that overwhelming to face when they're

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Speaker 2: allowed to do that.

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Speaker 3: But FAU is tough. I agree totally.

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Speaker 2: John ol Davis one of the tougher guys in the

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Speaker 2: country my opinion. In the backcourt, I agree, they are

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00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,000
Speaker 2: much older than they look on paper. They are mostly

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Speaker 2: juniors and sophomores really not freshman sophomores. And they're a team.

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Speaker 2: They're not Arkansas individual players. They're a team. Multiple guys

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Speaker 2: can beat you. They're connected on offense and defense, a

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Speaker 2: very good interior defense. Need to force Tennessee to shoot,

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Speaker 2: hope they're cold, keep them off the glassing they kind

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Speaker 2: of can. I think it's competitive close. I'm taking fau

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Speaker 2: Jim Yeah.

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Speaker 1: From one player prop perspective, Matt, you've mentioned you think

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Speaker 1: one of FA's weaknesses if you post up the foe

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Speaker 1: man because they just don't have size. I think Kamwa

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Speaker 1: can have another huge game here for Tennessee. Huge Yes, yeah,

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Speaker 1: play him alongside Ado and Plot six. I think they're

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Speaker 1: going to go through Commona. Make Nellie Davis cover in

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Speaker 1: the post, make make Elijah Martin try to d up there.

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Speaker 1: That's a real issue. If you can't play ad Implasa

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Speaker 1: shots the court with spacing, then Coma could have a

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Speaker 1: monster game. I think looking at his points or rebounds

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Speaker 1: or combined overs or potential good look there. College hoops

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Speaker 2: Moving on to the nightcap in Las Vegas, Gonzaga versus

365
00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:55,360
Speaker 2: UCLA around nine forty five Eastern tip. Here, it's a

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Speaker 2: matchup we all wanted here, Zag's Ucla. Man, what a

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00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,120
Speaker 2: It's gonna be an awe some awesome game of course,

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00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,040
Speaker 2: a rematch of the previous final four game we saw

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Speaker 2: a few years ago, which was also incredible. Hey, money

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00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:09,200
Speaker 2: coming in right now on the Zags. It's pretty much

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Speaker 2: painted one and a half now everywhere. Ucla was a

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00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:14,200
Speaker 2: two I think even two and a half point favorite

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Speaker 2: at one point high ish total, though maybe not as

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Speaker 2: high as we'd expect.

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Speaker 3: We'll see.

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Speaker 2: It's a bit of a pace battle in this game.

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00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:24,600
Speaker 2: One forty five and a half, one forty six right now, Matthew,

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00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:27,440
Speaker 2: who do you think gets it done here?

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Speaker 4: I liken Zaga, I really do. I'm wondering if the money,

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00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:34,359
Speaker 4: which could just be late money. Of course, people probably

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Speaker 4: waiting to bet later in the week at higher limits,

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00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,639
Speaker 4: but I think it's mostly in g related. As people

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00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:42,360
Speaker 4: are tracking the ADM Bona updates, it looked a lot

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00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:47,040
Speaker 4: more ominous when he went down last weekend. All signs

385
00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:49,280
Speaker 4: are porting to him playing this week, but it's just

386
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:52,359
Speaker 4: been one of those recurring shoulder things that you can't

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00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:54,119
Speaker 4: trust or few one hundred percent confident he's going to

388
00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:56,080
Speaker 4: go or he's not going to go, And if he goes,

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00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:57,720
Speaker 4: how well is he going to play? And not to

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00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:01,800
Speaker 4: belittle that point, but he is absolutely critical against Gonzaga.

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00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:03,960
Speaker 4: You know, I would think he would be a candidate

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00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:06,560
Speaker 4: to check Timmy if he was in there. Well, he

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00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,640
Speaker 4: was curious how Cronin decides to handle that. I think

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00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,800
Speaker 4: the bigger, interesting and more interesting, poor Jim, is how

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00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:15,560
Speaker 4: fast this game's played. How much does UCLA try and

396
00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:17,400
Speaker 4: slow it down? And does that actually work to their

397
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,600
Speaker 4: favor I tend to think it actually works against them

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00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,480
Speaker 4: sometimes because they're actually pretty good in transition when.

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Speaker 3: They get out there.

400
00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:26,200
Speaker 4: But against Gonzaga, I think you're walking into a You're

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00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:27,760
Speaker 4: walking on on fire there.

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00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:29,440
Speaker 3: If you get into a tract me with those.

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00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:32,000
Speaker 1: Guys, Yeah, I think you want to slow down Gonzaga,

404
00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:34,399
Speaker 1: frustrate them, take away the running game. Whay, they just

405
00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:36,760
Speaker 1: get the ball and walk it up. It's what Arkansas

406
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:38,320
Speaker 1: did to him last year. They just got sick of

407
00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:41,320
Speaker 1: trying to run against a great transition defense, and that

408
00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:44,600
Speaker 1: takes away an awesome aspect of the Zaga offense. They

409
00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:47,959
Speaker 1: are a steamroller when they get running. The other injury

410
00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:50,920
Speaker 1: news worth with monitoring here David Singleton for UCLA. He

411
00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:53,280
Speaker 1: had the ankle roll that we were worried was a knee.

412
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,080
Speaker 1: There's a video of him walking to the bus yesterday

413
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Speaker 1: for UCLA. He looks healthy fine. He's obviously not cutting

414
00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:02,760
Speaker 1: or jumping in that view, but he's not limping. Seems

415
00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,280
Speaker 1: to be in good spirits. They need him otherwise you're

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00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:08,000
Speaker 1: going to get what a lot of Dylan Andrews, I

417
00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:10,600
Speaker 1: guess a lot of Like they're basically going to play

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00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:14,520
Speaker 1: five guys. Campbell, Hakez, and Bailey played thirty eight minutes

419
00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:17,000
Speaker 1: against Northwestern, probably going to be thirty eight to forty

420
00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:20,480
Speaker 1: in this game. Again, that makes me lean towards under.

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00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:22,800
Speaker 1: They are really going to turn this into a grinder

422
00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,240
Speaker 1: given their lack of depth. So lean the under. KAI

423
00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 1: slightly in the UCLA on side because they just don't

424
00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 1: believe in the Gonzaga defense, and it will take issue

425
00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:34,160
Speaker 1: with this being the matchup we all wanted to see

426
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 1: because I wanted my Frogs here. I wanted the CLA

427
00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:39,040
Speaker 1: and the Frogs, and I know Stucky did as well.

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00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:43,160
Speaker 1: So that's hurtful. But this is a great game. Nonetheless,

429
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:44,520
Speaker 1: excited to see it in Vega. It's going to be

430
00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,480
Speaker 1: an awesome atmosphere because both fan bases have been here

431
00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:52,200
Speaker 1: for Pactell Tournament. They will travel certainly, So Lean UCLA

432
00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:54,560
Speaker 1: not betting the side, I don't think, but I really

433
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:55,160
Speaker 1: like the under.

434
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:57,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, you have to keep Gonzaga out of transition. I

435
00:19:57,800 --> 00:19:59,920
Speaker 2: don't you see, it doesn't have a chance if Gonzaga

436
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 2: gets to play their game. In my opinion, they just

437
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:04,920
Speaker 2: have a lack of depth and Gonzaga is too good

438
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,880
Speaker 2: in transition. I agree that with their defense point it's

439
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 2: a major weakness. How long can they survive in this

440
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,560
Speaker 2: tournament with a subpar defense? So the third worst than

441
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:14,880
Speaker 2: the tournament of teams left. I'll bring this up later

442
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,120
Speaker 2: with Miami as well, but the offense is the best

443
00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 2: in the country. They can out of every single team left.

444
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,840
Speaker 2: They are the team that can simply outscore opponents and

445
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,400
Speaker 2: still win games here. And I think the injured Jalen

446
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 2: Clark has finally felt here for UCLA right. He'd be

447
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,560
Speaker 2: huge as a defender of the pactual defensive player of

448
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 2: the Year against Gonzaga. I don't think anybody can stop

449
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:36,239
Speaker 2: through Temmy, but I do think UCLA can score as

450
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,440
Speaker 2: well against Gonzaga Campbell of course, senior point guard Hakes

451
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,359
Speaker 2: All American Bailey. He's a great scorer as well, just

452
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,119
Speaker 2: not as potent as Gonzaga. I think it's gonna be

453
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,560
Speaker 2: close back and forth. Cronin no doubt has a great

454
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,399
Speaker 2: game plan for this one. My heart wants Gonzaga, so

455
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 2: I'm sticking with Gonzaga here one and a half tough

456
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:55,440
Speaker 2: money line. I guess, yeah, small lean there.

457
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:57,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, Ucla had one point one to three points per

458
00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:01,879
Speaker 4: possession against a very vaunty Northwest defense with again that

459
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,000
Speaker 4: was with Singleton going down in Bona as well. So

460
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:07,280
Speaker 4: I mean it's basically three guys Bailey, Hawkes, Campbell. It's

461
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:08,920
Speaker 4: a three man show for the Bruins at this point.

462
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:10,160
Speaker 4: So they're up against.

463
00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 1: It, all right.

464
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,000
Speaker 2: Let's shift to Friday, guys. Four more great games here,

465
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:17,320
Speaker 2: starting with Alabama San Diego State six thirty pm Eastern

466
00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:22,240
Speaker 2: tip in Louisville. Louisville, Alabama, guys, is no doubt the

467
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 2: favorite in this game. A whopping drummer please, seven and

468
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 2: a half points pretty much across the board. Some sevens

469
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 2: out there as well, total one thirty six and a

470
00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:34,120
Speaker 2: half one thirty seven. Jim, start with.

471
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:37,919
Speaker 1: You, what do you think Alabama's rolling man? They have

472
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 1: figured it out. They put Javon Quinnerley into the starting

473
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,640
Speaker 1: lineup five games ago in the SEC tournament, and they

474
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 1: have beaten five straight NCAA Tournament teams by nineteen or

475
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 1: more just running them out of the gym. That includes Texas,

476
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:52,800
Speaker 1: A and m pretty good team Missippi stayed a play

477
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:57,639
Speaker 1: in team Maryland seven eight nine seed. This is the

478
00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,679
Speaker 1: best team they've played in that stretch if you go

479
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,880
Speaker 1: by seed. But I still just believe Alabama is a

480
00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:07,719
Speaker 1: skyrocketing force right now. If you want to back San

481
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 1: Diego State, maybe you do it first half, but Matt,

482
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 1: I think the fade Mountain West is still a little

483
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,719
Speaker 1: bit in order. San Diego State barely crept by the

484
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,880
Speaker 1: first round, barely covered against Charleston. I think they got

485
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,719
Speaker 1: an awesome matchup second round in Furman that just couldn't

486
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:26,160
Speaker 1: withstand their physicality. This is where the Aztecs run into trouble.

487
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:28,120
Speaker 1: For me. I tried to make an argument they keep

488
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 1: it close. Maybe they do for a little bit, but

489
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 1: I think the depth potency of Alabama wears them down

490
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 1: and perhaps even get a slightly healthier Brandon Miller, who

491
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 1: has not been efficient yet this tournament. Suddenly he could

492
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,919
Speaker 1: have a big game and this turns into a runaway.

493
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 1: So I lean the tide even at seven and a half.

494
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,639
Speaker 4: I always wish they would arrest him more last weekend.

495
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:48,919
Speaker 4: They didn't really need them. And this is kind of

496
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 4: a theme with Alabama is like Yeah, brand Miller is amazing,

497
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 4: but that played basically wasn't nothing Burger against who is

498
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 4: against Corpus Christy zero points and they ran away against

499
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 4: Miszoo in the SEC tournament. Semi is one of thirteen

500
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 4: Choinorly and Sears from three combined one by eleven. Right, Like,

501
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 4: there's so much potency in terms of offensive fire. Probably

502
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 4: can score inside out, and there's never going to be

503
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,400
Speaker 4: a situation where you're gonna get like Brandon Miller and

504
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:19,479
Speaker 4: Quinerly and Sears and the other guys not hitting. And

505
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 4: if they're not, they still have the defense to back

506
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 4: them up and keep them in his pack. There's just

507
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 4: so many like layers of protection that can keep them

508
00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 4: from losing, and not just losing but also covering spreads.

509
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:30,359
Speaker 4: Like it's just hard to find an avenue that Satium

510
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 4: Stay can really exploit here, maybe just through general identity

511
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 4: and physicality and put the potential upside that those guards

512
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:37,880
Speaker 4: have this season, Like maybe this is the game where

513
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 4: Matt Bradley comes out. You know, Torps is the nets,

514
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:43,360
Speaker 4: Tremll makes some really tough shots, Butler gets out in transition,

515
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 4: maybe makes some stuff happen in the open core you

516
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 4: could thrive them this type of.

517
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 3: Up and down game.

518
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:49,399
Speaker 4: I don't know though, man, Like, if you're betting Aeast Alabama,

519
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 4: I think you're really trying to find something that's just

520
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 4: not there.

521
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 1: Yeah.

522
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,480
Speaker 2: I think San Diego State tends to fare better when

523
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 2: it can win the athlete and the physicality battle, and

524
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,200
Speaker 2: you really can't do either against Alabama.

525
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 3: Just just not gonna happen.

526
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 2: So they're gonna try to muck it up. San Diego

527
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 2: State does have a great defense, but I think Bama's

528
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 2: just too talented. And this offense for San Diego State

529
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,440
Speaker 2: is definitely better than the offenses we're used to seeing

530
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,679
Speaker 2: from the Aztecs, but it's still prone to stagnation. Bama

531
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,879
Speaker 2: has a top three defense in the country. It's just

532
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 2: a really tough matchup for them. So the spreads about

533
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,120
Speaker 2: right in my opinion, Yeah, maybe it's slightly in Alabama.

534
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 2: It's very hard for me to see San Diego State

535
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 2: winning this game outright.

536
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, they get their offense down, the stretch of games

537
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 1: just turns into muck. It is like, what are we doing?

538
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 1: Just Matt Bradley kind of like spinning, spinning, spinning, trying

539
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 1: to get down the lane and then fading away from

540
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:39,440
Speaker 1: sixty feet or whatever. It's it's it's not pretty not yeah,

541
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 1: definitely not against Bama.

542
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 2: Matt Bradley not exactly a long player, pretty compact Matt

543
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 2: Bradley against Salabama defense. All right, next game here in

544
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 2: Kansas City, it's Houston versus Miami seven to fifteen pm

545
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 2: Eastern Tip Matthew going to you first, thoughts Canes wait Canes,

546
00:24:57,800 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 2: and we were in Houston.

547
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 3: This spread is also seven.

548
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 4: Seven and a half, basically the same spread we saw

549
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 4: for Bama San Diego State seven seven and a half,

550
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 4: pretty similar total two one thirty seven and a half

551
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 4: one thirty eight. Yeah, Houston with sassarback was partly impressive,

552
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:17,439
Speaker 4: partly concerning I guess if you're talking about Houston's title

553
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 4: prognosis and the dominant team, dominant force that we saw

554
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,239
Speaker 4: for most of the year, although we you know, some

555
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 4: cracks emerged in some spots. I do think some cracks

556
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 4: emerged last game. Defensively, not all as organized as I thought.

557
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 4: I know Alburn made some tough shots there, but the

558
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 4: fact that they were down against the team I don't

559
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:34,080
Speaker 4: like an Auburn.

560
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 3: Sassar's second game back.

561
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 4: While he should have play better this game, he still

562
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 4: isn't one hundred percent healthy. I don't believe in Just

563
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 4: the fact that you have that long layoff gives me

564
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:44,640
Speaker 4: a little bit of he B gbs because this offense

565
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 4: Houston needs him badly. Maybe not against Miami, maybe not

566
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 4: against a shorter, more brittle front line, but whatever, they

567
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 4: get stuff money on the second, third chance opportunities. I

568
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 4: think Miami can also get into gaps on the offensive

569
00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 4: end and actually make shots, even though Houston's defenses were Now,

570
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 4: I just think Miami's elite shot making can help the

571
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,439
Speaker 4: gate that the general theme great offense beats great defense.

572
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 4: Miami has two great offensive players that if they're on

573
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,120
Speaker 4: doesn't matter how good defense Houston plays, like, I think

574
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 4: they're going to be right there to cover the seven.

575
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,159
Speaker 4: I actually like the dog here, Jim and I's kind

576
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,639
Speaker 4: of cover your eyes back going against Houston. But I

577
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 4: don't think there as invincible as they looked a couple

578
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 4: of weeks ago.

579
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:24,640
Speaker 3: Played pretty well. Man, he was played well, he was great,

580
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 3: he was awesome.

581
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, the second half was like, oh this is this

582
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,679
Speaker 1: is Houston fifty to twenty three against Auburn, Like just

583
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 1: absolutely demolished them. They sucked the life out of them.

584
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 1: Somebody caught it like an and Akana, just squeezing the

585
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: life out of Auburn. And they did that while also

586
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 1: getting a great offensive game from Mark from Sassar. Mark's

587
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,679
Speaker 1: kind of the swing guy. Like if you get the

588
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:51,879
Speaker 1: contributions on the ball from him, especially with Shed and

589
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:55,880
Speaker 1: Sassar banged up, suddenly this team is unstoppable. I rewatched

590
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 1: them play Oral Roberts way way back early in the season,

591
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 1: and Mark was running a lot of ball screens, pulling

592
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: up in the mid range. Kind of brought that same

593
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 1: thing to the Auburn game. That's huge. I think Houston's

594
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 1: going to get a ton on the offensive glass. Miami

595
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 1: not great on the defensive glass. I know they just

596
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 1: absolutely punked Indiana on the on the boards, like forty

597
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:17,439
Speaker 1: eight to thirty one, got more than half their misses

598
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 1: against that Indiana front line. That is wild. I don't

599
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 1: think they're going to have the same success here. Houston's

600
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 1: not a dominant defensive rebounding team, but they are offensively.

601
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 1: They're much more physical. They're going to be tuned into

602
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,679
Speaker 1: what Miami's trying to do on the OA glass, and

603
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 1: there's no nobody bigger on Miami to take advantage of

604
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,439
Speaker 1: the Houston Biggs being like six seven sixty eight. So

605
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: despite being well, I think Houston wins KAI. But I

606
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 1: do think the depotency of the Miami guards makes me

607
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 1: lean that way on the spread getting seven.

608
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I'm gonna pose the defensive question again I

609
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 2: did with Gonzaga. How long can Miami last having a

610
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 2: defense that ringks outside the top one hundred nationally? Because

611
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 2: Houston score one point two to seven points per possession

612
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 2: against Auburn is no o. They have talent, skill, and

613
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 2: of course extreme toughness and physicality. I do think it's

614
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 2: going to be a pretty huge advantage in the glass

615
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,679
Speaker 2: for them. Offensively, arguably the best offensive rebounding team in

616
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 2: the country against the defensive rebounding squad in Miami. It's

617
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 2: not been that great this season on that end. Omeir

618
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 2: is great, but I just think Houston has too much

619
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:21,639
Speaker 2: size up front. Can out muscle him and their defense?

620
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 2: Of course, Houston incredible. Can I harass Miami's.

621
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 3: Group of guards?

622
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 2: Can Miami's group of guards shoot over the top absolutely

623
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 2: and march the guards game? But good luck those shots

624
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,679
Speaker 2: aren't falling for Miami because you're not going to get

625
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,240
Speaker 2: buckets inside. I think the line is about right here.

626
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 2: I'm rooting for the Kougs for futures purposes, but I

627
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 2: would not be surprised when Miami kept it close and

628
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 2: covered seven. I think Houston moves on sneaky.

629
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 1: Injury note Wooga Poplar, who's actually been pretty good for

630
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 1: Miami Good has yet to practice this week, per the

631
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 1: Miami Herald as of Wednesday morning. Maybe he gets in

632
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 1: there by Friday. But I do think they need him.

633
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: That's a lot of Bensley, Joseph and some of the

634
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 1: bigger lineups they have to play with Miller. Yeah, I

635
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 1: think they need Popular. He's actually been really really good

636
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 1: for him.

637
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, probably the most physical defensive guard. Like you need

638
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 4: a kind of counter against Houston's. That's a good point,

639
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 4: all right.

640
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 2: Nightcap Phillis in Louisville, Louisville Brighton Princeton nine pm. Eastern

641
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 2: Creighton favored by nine and a half. I do see

642
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 2: a ten out there, and I'm telling you right now,

643
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 2: Matthew I grabbed the ten for Princeton Tigers. Yes, sir,

644
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 2: do you agree with me? What do you think I'm

645
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 2: torn on this one. I tend to agree. I thought

646
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 2: that NC State.

647
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 4: Would be better at exploiting the Ryan Colchrder drop coverage

648
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:36,719
Speaker 4: and just try and put a bunch of ball screens

649
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 4: at him and to hope those guards make shots. I

650
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 4: think Princeton makes they come at it that will come

651
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:44,479
Speaker 4: out crave from like a little bit different of an angle, right,

652
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 4: like with Tosan as their quasi five, the way he

653
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 4: can bring it up and transition, the way they can

654
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 4: kind of use him as a trigger man on offense.

655
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 1: Wait, can I can I take issue? I don't think

656
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 1: he's there five Like Kelman is pretty obviously their five, right.

657
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, sorry, I guess he's like, ye, he's positionless five.

658
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 4: But I still vid him is like they're five. But

659
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 4: you're I guess Calemen is really their five.

660
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 3: Maybe they play at five, though occasionally they'll throw them

661
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 3: at a five.

662
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,239
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, if they go small, like when Kalm's off

663
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 1: the floor for sure.

664
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 2: Yeah.

665
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 4: So it's to your point you think Kulk will be

666
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 4: on on Cauleman. That's that's probably fair. I think you

667
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 4: see a lot more toast on at five. I think

668
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 4: if Henderson's they should do they're gonna come out with

669
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 4: a little more smaller to look like it. Just don't

670
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 4: match up with the bigger guy and don't look them

671
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 4: in the mirror trying to do something different to hoorit

672
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 4: they have if they can do that, I really like

673
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 4: Princeton's chance to score here because Toson in the open

674
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 4: floor is like fantastic great passer. Uh and the way

675
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 4: Princeton has shot the ball, which actually hasn't been that great.

676
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 4: Right one of these mid major teams like FAU that's

677
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 4: actually made their run despite not being white hot from three.

678
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,720
Speaker 4: You know, they blew by your Missouri Tigers without making

679
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 4: outside shots just because they got so many good open looks.

680
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 4: Crads more to more disciplined defensively, I'm with Kaido.

681
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 3: I just felt big Lill too big for me.

682
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 1: Jim maybe a tad high, I don't know. I think

683
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 1: Princeton benefit from playing two teams that need to run.

684
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 1: Both Arizona and Miszoo love transition game, especially if they

685
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 1: can force turnovers on the Missoo side, and Princeton took

686
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 1: care of the ball kind of cut them at the

687
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 1: knees offensively, They're forced them to execute in the half court.

688
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 1: I think Creighton's better in the half court than either

689
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 1: Arizona or Miszoo. They have played really effectively through Calkbrenner

690
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 1: pick and roll so far. Nemhard had the monster game

691
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 1: against Baylor. Klkbrenner dominated the opening round matchup with NC State.

692
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 1: You mentioned the defensive discipline of Creighton. They forced Flagler

693
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 1: and Cryer into combined twenty one twos last round and

694
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 1: the opening round Joiner and turk Smith took thirty five

695
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 1: twos against this defense. They run you off the line,

696
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 1: They kind of force into that mid range, make you

697
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 1: challenge Calkbrenner, who just never foiles. He's perfect with his verticality.

698
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 1: I think this is a much tougher matchup for Princeton,

699
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:54,719
Speaker 1: so I tend to agree the numbers is a bit high,

700
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 1: but I think Creighton is rolling right now, and as

701
00:31:57,760 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 1: long as they don't do anything silly with their show,

702
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 1: I think they can actually cover this game. So KaiA

703
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 1: split on the on the ten, but I definitely lean

704
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 1: to towards the under. By the way, I think Princeton

705
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 1: continues to just turn games into a grind.

706
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 2: Yeah to the four or five debates. So Kelman's played

707
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 2: fifteen minutes per game. Last two games, they played a

708
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 2: lot of Zach Martini against Arizona a little foul trouble,

709
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 2: but they also just chose to play him against the Zoo.

710
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 2: It could be matchups. You might actually need Kelman more

711
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 2: against Calckbrinner, but I guess they didn't do it against Arizona.

712
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 2: Can get away with it again. Yeah, I've said it

713
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 2: all tournament. Princeton offense very tough to prep against. Creaton

714
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 2: has a little more time to do that, but I

715
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 2: still think it's hard to prep in practice for all

716
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 2: the cutting, the counters, the intricracies of the offense. I

717
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,200
Speaker 2: think it's just tough to do. Maybe first half is

718
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 2: where you look for Princeton again like he did against Arizona.

719
00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 2: Of course they won the game outright eventually. I just

720
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 2: think it's simply too much, too many points for the

721
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 2: pace that I think it will be played at.

722
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 3: I agree with Jim's under angle.

723
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 2: I do think Tosun would be a tough matchup for

724
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 2: even Kaluma if that ends up being the matchup. I mean,

725
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 2: he's just a great player. He's a tough matchup for anybody.

726
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 2: Creyton does run teams off the line. But Princeton with

727
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 2: those cuts, I don't know. Maybe they're okay with that.

728
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 2: It's just a weird dynamic. I don't know if Creighton

729
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 2: seen is a cutting team quite as good as this.

730
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 2: Maybe Marquette would be up there as well. Jays obviously

731
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 2: have the talent, edge, athleticsis match. I do think they're

732
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 2: gonna win. Just tends a little bit too much for me,

733
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 2: so I did take the Princeton Tigers here against the spread.

734
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 2: All Right, last game, fellas, We're going back to Kansas

735
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 2: City for Xavier in Texas nine to forty five pm

736
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 2: Eastern tip. This one is four four and a half

737
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 2: in favor of the Longhorns. Just about every look, starting

738
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 2: with Jim, what do you got here?

739
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 1: Boy? This version of Texas is really good since the

740
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 1: Big twelve tournament where Timmy Allen missed. They're getting Dylan

741
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 1: Desu playing at basically all American levels. Last five games

742
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 1: averaging eighteen to nine in twenty six minutes. That was

743
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 1: always kind of the knock as, all right, where do

744
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 1: they get easy, consistent buckets from the PA? They had

745
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 1: great guard play, especially with the emergence of Serjabari Rice.

746
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 1: But if DC is going to do this look out

747
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 1: man that is that makes Texas really deadly. It was

748
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:12,399
Speaker 1: impressed with what they did down the stretch against Penn

749
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 1: State when they took a ten oh punch and responded

750
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 1: with a ten oh run right back, retook the lead,

751
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 1: retook control. There's some spread drama late in that game

752
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 1: with shot making from north from Penn State, but Texas

753
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 1: still managed to get the victory. We're looking at player props.

754
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 1: DC's up to thirteen and a half. People are very

755
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 1: onto how well he's playing. I don't know if I

756
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 1: would strongly recommend that, but he has been dominant lately.

757
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:41,479
Speaker 1: Going against Jack Nuge, that's a pretty tough matchup as well, Matt.

758
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,359
Speaker 1: Who do you trust more from a perimeter playmaking shot

759
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:47,440
Speaker 1: making perspective, sou Le Boom and Adam Kunkle or Marcus

760
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:50,799
Speaker 1: Carr and Serjabari Rice Texas.

761
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,760
Speaker 4: Rice is the X factor for me, Like the emergence

762
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,239
Speaker 4: of Rice. The emergence of DC is why Texas went

763
00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 4: from fringe top tennis for me to like probably the

764
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 4: second best team behind Bama at this point, because these

765
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:04,279
Speaker 4: would gets you someone on the defensive end too, right,

766
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:05,840
Speaker 4: He's the rim protector that didn't really have. So the

767
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 4: defense is lifted, their offensive balance is lifted. DC has

768
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,280
Speaker 4: had favoral matchups. I will say that in his recent

769
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 4: run he's been awesome. But now he gets a Xavier

770
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:18,360
Speaker 4: front line which isn't as vaunted in terms of just

771
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:20,839
Speaker 4: pure size without fremantle, but it's still bigger. It's tougher, right,

772
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 4: Sean Miller Hunter non g you know they're not soft.

773
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 4: Kolby Jones. I know plays on the pimter, but like

774
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 4: they're a little tougher, I think. But I think their

775
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 4: guards are weak defensively on the perimeter. Right, we saw

776
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 4: kind of saw run circles around him, getting every shot

777
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 4: they wanted for thirty five minutes. I think this is

778
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 4: a big Marcus Car, big Jabari Rice, big tires Hunter game.

779
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 4: I think the guards for Texas are the differentiator for

780
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 4: me here, and I think they win. I think this

781
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 4: is probably the best bet in the first round for me. Yeah,

782
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 4: the first round, Matthew, it's close too. I think I

783
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:49,360
Speaker 4: lay it up to like six, I really would. I

784
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:51,400
Speaker 4: think they I think that takes over the woodshed.

785
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, we've.

786
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 2: Talked about Xavier's defense has been a little bit better

787
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 2: lately though, right they're they've kind of retooleds figured it

788
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 2: out since Freemantle has been out. But yeah, the Stanta

789
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 2: to Texas, I don't know. I agree Texas is scary good,

790
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:05,719
Speaker 2: super old, tons of weapons in the back court.

791
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:06,759
Speaker 3: You guys mentioned d Su.

792
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, if he plays this level, I agree, they might

793
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 2: be the second best team in the country behind Alabama.

794
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:14,319
Speaker 2: Of course, I always have Houston up there as well.

795
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 2: Xavier has shooting to their advantage that they have a

796
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:19,239
Speaker 2: knockdown group of shooters, you know, one of the best

797
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 2: three point shooting teams in the country.

798
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 3: Always the equalizer.

799
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:24,839
Speaker 2: But Texas I think can cause some issues back there

800
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 2: in the back court. Boom, Kunkle and Jones. They're fantastic.

801
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:30,279
Speaker 2: They're not immune to turnovers. They're an experienced group, but

802
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:32,800
Speaker 2: they're not immune to getting a little flustered back there.

803
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 2: Weird question, does Texas have an answer for Nungji? Nunjee

804
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 2: has been a very impressive guy for me. He can shoot,

805
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:43,719
Speaker 2: he can score in the post, he's a legit seven feet.

806
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 2: DC's been great. He is a shop blocker. But I

807
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 2: weirdly think Nunji has a nice matchup in this one.

808
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 2: I do think Sean Miller is a much better coach

809
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 2: than Rodney Terry. No offense to Rodney Terry. I don't know, guys,

810
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:56,399
Speaker 2: I kind of in towards Xavier here.

811
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:57,600
Speaker 3: Am I crazy? Am I nuts?

812
00:36:57,760 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 4: Yeah?

813
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:02,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're crazy? Get out of here. Texas feels like

814
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 1: closer to Kennesaw than to Pitt, where there's a bunch

815
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:10,320
Speaker 1: of athletes and physicality guards that can make plays. Pitt

816
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 1: is more Guardardian, not as physical in the paint. I

817
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 1: agree with you, Nunjee might be worth a looking in

818
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 1: a player pop market or something because DC doesn't have

819
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:21,399
Speaker 1: the same size as him. But I think the way

820
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:23,840
Speaker 1: Jerome Hunter has been playing, maybe that could be a

821
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:26,239
Speaker 1: little inflated ten and a half. I was thinking it'd

822
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 1: be higher given out how much he's scoring, by the way, Yeah,

823
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 1: he's been That's why I was hoping he'd be like

824
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half for his prop market and he

825
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 1: could take the under and points there. But now I'm

826
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:41,280
Speaker 1: I'm with Matt Texas and kaya's crazy and we're gonna

827
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 1: pillage him if this game works out in our favor.

828
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 2: Hey to be fair, kempom Texas top fifteen in both

829
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:49,920
Speaker 2: offense and defense nothing to sneeze at. I'm not sure

830
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 2: how many teams in the country you can claim that.

831
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:56,399
Speaker 2: Maybe two other ones. Yeah, that's insane, all right, fellas. Hey,

832
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 2: good podcast. Thank you out there for joining us on

833
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 2: the BBOC Big Bets on Campus podcast presented by MGM.

834
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 2: Once again, we will see you guys next time for

835
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 2: a special Final four episode next week. Yes, sir, the

836
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 2: Final four is coming up very very soon in Houston.

837
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 2: Until then, good luck in your sweet sixteen and your

838
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:17,880
Speaker 2: Elite eight bets, and again enjoy watching college basketball.

839
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

840
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

841
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,359
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

842
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:41,240
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