1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,360 Speaker 1: Hey, guys, thanks for listening to Breaking Points with Crystal 2 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:04,280 Speaker 1: and Sager. We're going to be totally upfront with you. 3 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: We took a big risk going independent to make this work. 4 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:11,920 Speaker 1: We need your support to beat the corporate media CNN, Fox, MSNBC. 5 00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:15,800 Speaker 1: They are ripping this country apart. They are making millions 6 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:18,400 Speaker 1: of dollars doing it to help support our mission of 7 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: making all of us hate each other, less hate the 8 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: corrupt ruling class more support the show. 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We have an amazing show for everybody today. 19 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 1: What do we have, Crystal? Indeed we do. Once again, 20 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:13,319 Speaker 1: we have all angles of the Ukraine crisis covered for 21 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 1: you the very latest updates as far as we can 22 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 1: tell from the ground, some new sort of indications of 23 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 1: how China may be grappling with all of this, which 24 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 1: of course is incredibly significant for the reordering of all 25 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:27,400 Speaker 1: of geopolitics, but also hopefully to try to get to 26 00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:30,680 Speaker 1: an end of this war. Also some updates on what 27 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 1: is going on with the oligarchs, some signs of splits there, 28 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: also some of their luxury goods being seized, while the 29 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 1: Biden administration a little bit wishy washy on if they're 30 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 1: going to do what it takes to get the banks 31 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:45,320 Speaker 1: to actually go along with this program of sanctions. Some 32 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 1: new comments from our former President Trump that are not 33 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: particularly helpful. Also all the very latest from across the 34 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 1: board CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News on their worst possible 35 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 1: Ukraine takes. So we have all of that for you, 36 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 1: so bad. We also have Congress and Rokana going to 37 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 1: join us both to talk about his book but also 38 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 1: to update us on the Ukraine situation, and that indeed 39 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 1: is where we want to start. Yeah, so let's start 40 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 1: with Ukraine. As we guys have been seeing, we use 41 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 1: this mapping service that's going to put it up there 42 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:17,640 Speaker 1: on the screen. It's an excellent kind of summary of 43 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 1: where things stand. So you can see there that the 44 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 1: front line has moved a little bit closer than where 45 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 1: it was previously. We continue to see a Russian attack 46 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,119 Speaker 1: on the city of Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. Now 47 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 1: they've made no real progress in the last two days, 48 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 1: and we're going to get to the logistical problems that 49 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 1: are facing that forty mile long convoy. But over in 50 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 1: the east of the country, there's been some pretty significant 51 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 1: military development. So the city of Kharkiv remains really under 52 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: pretty fierce attack by the Russian military, and there's a 53 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:50,960 Speaker 1: lot of strategic objectives that they're moving from in there. 54 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: In the east, the front line remains relatively stable, but 55 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 1: the city of Mariopol is undergoing pretty heavy bombing and shelling. 56 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 1: But the major Russian victory actually came yesterday after the 57 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 1: map was made. So let's go ahead and put this 58 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:07,240 Speaker 1: up there on the screen, which is that the strategic 59 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:12,120 Speaker 1: city of Kerson in Ukraine's south falls to the Russian forces. 60 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 1: This is the first major city, it's got a population 61 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:18,239 Speaker 1: of three hundred thousand. There's some limited elements of the 62 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 1: Ukrainian government left within the city, but by and large 63 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 1: the Russians have militarily taken it over. It matters because 64 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: it's down there in the south near the Crimean Peninsula, 65 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 1: and it's a strategic way in order for them to 66 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 1: move weapons, have a staging area, a base, and all 67 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 1: of that. So top line, as we said, by and large, 68 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 1: it's been a pretty big I wouldn't say a military disaster, 69 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 1: but they have faced some big roadblocks and anybody watching 70 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 1: this can tell you the Russian military has not been 71 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: doing a particularly good job. At the same time, Crystal, 72 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 1: they have overwhelming firepower advantage, they have a lot of 73 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 1: obviously they have the advantage in this conflict. And as 74 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 1: time goes on, and this is what we were warning 75 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:00,880 Speaker 1: you in the opening days the campaign. You know you're 76 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 1: going to see heroic elements and all that, and we 77 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 1: should never diminish what's happening. But in the long run, 78 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 1: you know, it's obviously on the Russian side about what's happening, 79 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 1: and unfortunately, we're very likely to continue to see these 80 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 1: military pushes inward and eventually I expect the Russians to 81 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 1: take all of their military objectives. That being said, at 82 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 1: a tremendous loss of life, which we'll also get to soon, 83 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:23,920 Speaker 1: and a major strategic loss grant strategically in terms of 84 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 1: being cut off essentially from the entire global financial system. 85 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:30,039 Speaker 1: This fits with what we've the sort of narrative that 86 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:32,919 Speaker 1: we've been laying out for you of things have not 87 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 1: gone for Russia as they thought they would. First of all, 88 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 1: I think there was a lot more resistance. I think 89 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:40,719 Speaker 1: there was some element that truly believed they'd be like 90 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 1: greeted as liberators and everybody it's thought that would take 91 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 1: the city in two days, roll over and be able 92 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 1: to take over Kiev in a very short amount of time. 93 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 1: That obviously hasn't happened, and they have sustained some level 94 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: of loss. It's very difficult to say exactly how many 95 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:55,280 Speaker 1: we're going to get to that, but they are even 96 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,480 Speaker 1: admitting that there have been significant losses on the Russian 97 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 1: side at this time. Now we're starting to see an 98 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 1: escalation in tactics, potentially more civilian loss of life as 99 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 1: cities like Mariopaul are subjected to horrific shelling and with 100 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:17,480 Speaker 1: this particular strategic city in the south falling. The reason 101 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 1: this matters is because it allows Russian troops to be 102 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:23,360 Speaker 1: able to advance north into central Ukraine and also over 103 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:26,839 Speaker 1: to the port city of Odessa. So it does seem 104 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:28,719 Speaker 1: like we're at a bit of a turning point where 105 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: Ukrainian forces, which have resisted fiercely and very effectively, the 106 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:36,600 Speaker 1: Russians are really starting to gain me up at upperhand 107 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 1: right now as far as we can tell. And also 108 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:43,360 Speaker 1: there are reports that they're supposed to have another set 109 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 1: of diplomatic meetings today, but I haven't seen anyone who's 110 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:49,600 Speaker 1: truly hopeful that there's going to be a resolution. Yeah, 111 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:52,039 Speaker 1: I mean, the demands on both sides are ridiculous. You know, 112 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 1: Russia is saying you need demilitarization. Well, that's not going 113 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 1: to happen after you literally invaded their country. I also 114 00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:01,239 Speaker 1: have no expectation that they could stum the Zelensky regime 115 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:04,599 Speaker 1: staying within power, so that's also obviously not going to 116 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:07,480 Speaker 1: happen at this time. On the Ukrainian side, they want 117 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:11,160 Speaker 1: an immediate ceasefire and a withdrawal of Russian troops. It's like, okay, well, 118 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 1: that's also not going to happen at this point in 119 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 1: terms of saving face. To give you just an idea 120 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 1: of the problems the Russian military is facing. These are 121 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:22,720 Speaker 1: some pretty basic problems that they are having logistically which 122 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 1: are pretty stunning to a lot of people who are 123 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: watching this from the west. Let's put this up there 124 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:31,039 Speaker 1: on the screen, which is that the armed convoy stalling 125 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 1: is showcasing some major logistical problems that the Russian military 126 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 1: has not been undergoing pretty basic maintenance of a lot 127 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 1: of its equipment. One of the things that was actually 128 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 1: pointed out by an expert in military transport tires, Yes 129 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:51,279 Speaker 1: there is such a thing, is that armed con these 130 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 1: Russian military these Russian military convoy equipment needs to be 131 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 1: moved all of the time. The reason why is if 132 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 1: you let it sit out in the sun. Specifically, these 133 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:07,159 Speaker 1: level of tires, these tires which are very important to 134 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 1: moving off terrain which is not roads that they need 135 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:14,160 Speaker 1: to be and cannot be left sitting in the sun. 136 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: And he looked at a lot of open source intelligence 137 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: that ended up coming out of Ukraine and he's watching 138 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 1: all of these tires getting shredded. There's a lot of 139 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 1: abandoned Russian transport vehicles in the mud. And the same time, 140 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 1: one of the reasons why you see Russian Russian transport equipment. 141 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 1: All massing on roads is because if they go off road, 142 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 1: they're going to sink and get stuck in the mud. 143 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 1: There's actually a specific terminology in Russian for this muddy 144 00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 1: season quote unquote in the East. And part of the 145 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 1: issue is that their lack of upkeep has made it 146 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 1: so that a lot of their tires are getting shredded 147 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 1: and they're just getting abandoned, stuck completely in the mud. 148 00:07:56,520 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 1: So then they have to stick to the roads, which 149 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 1: make you sitting ducks. Anybody knows in warfare, choke points 150 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 1: and all this. It just goes to show you lack 151 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 1: of maintenance is going to have them downstream effects in 152 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 1: the actual combat itself. But we should again not underestimate 153 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 1: the Russian military here. They have massive amount of firepower, 154 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:19,280 Speaker 1: especially whenever it comes to sea and land and cruise 155 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 1: based missiles, and we are seeing unfortunately some of that. 156 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 1: We have a little bit of a video from the 157 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: city of Kharkiev. Let's go ahead and put this on 158 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 1: the screen. I'm going to talk over this. You can 159 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:34,239 Speaker 1: see there a apartment. The building is from the Faculty 160 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: of Sociology of Karazen National University, is on fire, and 161 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 1: it was hit by some sort of Russian munition. It 162 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: was a Russian strike of some kind. It's either an 163 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 1: airstrak or possibly a missile. It hasn't exactly been confirmed, 164 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 1: but there's video that coming out from the streets of 165 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 1: Kharkiev which are really just horrible. I mean almost it 166 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: looks like Aleppo. You know, it's like you've got ash 167 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 1: all over the ground and there's no civilian in the streets, 168 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 1: and things are all on fire. And you know, even 169 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 1: if Russia does militarily accomplish its objectives, that's the lengths 170 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: through which it's going to have to go. So I 171 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 1: didn't know this, Crystal, but apparently this is rhyming very 172 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:15,240 Speaker 1: much with the Chechen War, which is that there was 173 00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 1: a lead general under Putin in nineteen ninety nine who 174 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 1: told him I just need two days and I can 175 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 1: go in there and take the city of Grosny. Well, 176 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 1: you know, many massacred civilians. Later, a massive strategic air 177 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 1: campaign to level the city to the ground, and you know, 178 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 1: a year's long in broglio resulting in occupation and then 179 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:40,960 Speaker 1: installation of a friendly you know, a friendly dictator who 180 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:44,440 Speaker 1: is himself ten times more ruthless than Putin. This hasn't 181 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:47,560 Speaker 1: end up what you get, except this time, not only 182 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: do you have to level a city, the entire world 183 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 1: is watching, and you are essentially culturally and financially cut 184 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:56,560 Speaker 1: off from the entire West and East. So I don't know. 185 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 1: I mean, you watch this happening, it seems clear to 186 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 1: me they're probably going to accompli their military objectives. But 187 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,960 Speaker 1: at what cost to the Russian regime, especially Russian people. 188 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,560 Speaker 1: I mean, they are getting so screwed. Yeah, oh absolutely. 189 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 1: I was reading someone saying basically like I mean, there's 190 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 1: new reports this morning of all of the Western companies 191 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:16,960 Speaker 1: fleeing Russia, you know, closing down shop, and someone saying 192 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 1: basically like the Apple iPhone that you're holding in your 193 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:21,679 Speaker 1: hand right now is the last one that you'll ever have. Yeah, yes, 194 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: Apple out. I mean, that's obviously the least of the 195 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 1: horrific economic costs the Russian people are going to bear. 196 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 1: And I'm actually talking about that more in my monologue. 197 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:32,959 Speaker 1: But you're exactly right, Sager. It really leads to a 198 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 1: lot of questions about, even within Ukraine, what is Putin's 199 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 1: endgame here? Because if he thought he could roll in 200 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 1: take Kharkiev in two days, take Kiev in two days, 201 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 1: install a puppet government and then kind of be done. 202 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 1: That's obviously not on the table because you have a 203 00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 1: very fierce resistance here that is not going away. So 204 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: if you're going to hold onto Ukraine, that looks more 205 00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 1: like you know, our occupation of Afghanistan or something of 206 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 1: the sort, which is, you know, a massive drain on 207 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 1: resources and the fighting never goes away, and you're constantly 208 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: having to be there and eventually, you know, the population 209 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 1: gets sick of it, you drain all of your sort 210 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:16,680 Speaker 1: of will your money, you decide this wasn't really worth 211 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:19,679 Speaker 1: it in the end, or just as a continued suck 212 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 1: on national resources. So you know, if he thought this 213 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 1: was going to be easy and simple and he could 214 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 1: just get red of Zelenski, put in a government that 215 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 1: was more favorable and then call it a day, that 216 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 1: option is obviously not on the table. And at the 217 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: same time, of course, you know, with these escalating tactics, 218 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:42,680 Speaker 1: we have escalating humanitarian crisis. We have latest numbers of refugees. 219 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 1: Actually the number I saw this morning, let's go ahead 220 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 1: and put this up on the screen. This number says 221 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:50,240 Speaker 1: refugees at six hundred thousand, but the very latest numbers 222 00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 1: I saw this morning was that more than a million 223 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:55,320 Speaker 1: people had fled Ukraine. I mean, that is a really 224 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:59,120 Speaker 1: significant portion of their population, and I do have to 225 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 1: say it is very noteworthy. How listen, I think all 226 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 1: of these refugees should be welcome. I saw Airbnb's putting 227 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 1: them up for free in their properties, et cetera, et cetera. 228 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,439 Speaker 1: But there is a massive contrast between how these refugees 229 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 1: have been treated and those who are, for example, coming 230 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 1: out of Afghanistan, where we are causing the refugee crisis 231 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:20,800 Speaker 1: by effectively stealing their assets. There has been a wildly 232 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 1: disparate treatment of those groups of people. Yeah, I mean 233 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: a million refugees is a lot. You know, many of 234 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 1: them have gone to Russia, many of them going to Belarus, 235 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:31,319 Speaker 1: all around the European you know, a million people out 236 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 1: of forty four million, that's just the beginning of what's happening. 237 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 1: And this isn't just a refugee crisis out of Ukraine. 238 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 1: I was reading this morning the brain drain out of 239 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:42,960 Speaker 1: Moscow right now is crazy. Anybody who's a dual Russian 240 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: citizen is getting the hell out of Moscow at this time, 241 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 1: and a lot of their most Western eyes educated citizens 242 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:52,080 Speaker 1: are like, screw it, I'm not going to deal with 243 00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:54,680 Speaker 1: this and are flying, you know, to whoever they possibly 244 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 1: can and are getting out. So Putin is both draining 245 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 1: obviously the most well connected people in all of Ukraine, 246 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 1: they probably either left or left before or left right during, 247 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 1: and now in his own country as well, because those 248 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:09,319 Speaker 1: people don't want to have to live under the regime 249 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: which is basically financially cut off from the entire world. 250 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 1: Something we also just want to underscore, and let's we 251 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 1: want to underscore, is just the tremendous loss of life 252 00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:22,439 Speaker 1: that we are now beginning to see on a scale 253 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 1: that has not been seen in many years, almost since, 254 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:29,320 Speaker 1: like the Vietnam War level of losses, especially from a 255 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:31,840 Speaker 1: military standpoint. So let's go ahead and put this next 256 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 1: one up there, which is that the official number that 257 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:38,559 Speaker 1: the Russian Ministry of Defense acknowledges is four hundred and 258 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 1: ninety eight Russian combat deaths with fifteen hundred injured. Now 259 00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 1: that's probably on the lower end, there's no way to know. 260 00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:50,200 Speaker 1: The Ukrainians are claiming some like forty five hundred to 261 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 1: five thousand. I would take that with him. The latest 262 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 1: I saw from them was eight thousand. That just seems tremendously, 263 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:58,880 Speaker 1: tremendously high. That's double the amount of troops that we 264 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 1: lost in the entire war Iraq in like twenty years. 265 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:04,640 Speaker 1: So I would just be very skeptical of that number. 266 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:07,960 Speaker 1: That being said, they're acknowledging five hundred. Okay, well, that's 267 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:11,080 Speaker 1: a lot of troops in such a short period of time. 268 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:13,440 Speaker 1: I put it into perspective. Put my tweet up there, 269 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 1: which is I want to go ahead and pull the numbers. 270 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 1: Russia has lost as many troops officially in one week 271 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 1: that it took the United States ten months of war 272 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 1: in Iraq to arrive at four hundred and eighty two 273 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 1: combat debts. On our side, now, as Glenn Greenwall pointed out, 274 00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 1: we had a very very different military strategy. We basically 275 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: leveled the entire Iraqi cities and the military from Shakhanah campaign, 276 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 1: and that the Russians are pursuing a much more twentieth 277 00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 1: century man first, and lack of airpower and all that. Second. Regardless, 278 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 1: four hundred and eighty two young kids blown to hell 279 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 1: and killed, and that's just the official number, let's say 280 00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:53,880 Speaker 1: it is fifteen hundred. That's fifteen hundred parents who don't 281 00:14:53,880 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 1: have kids. Yeah, and it may not be probablar to say, 282 00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 1: but I feel horrific for them. Oh you should. I mean, 283 00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 1: have you seen the these videos coming out of these kids. 284 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 1: They're like, we don't even know why are we here? 285 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 1: I mean, listen, Yeah, those things are being put on 286 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:10,160 Speaker 1: by the Ukrainians. They may be total propaganda, but I 287 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 1: don't think it's a stretch to imagine that they didn't 288 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 1: think that this is what they were signing up to 289 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: it because teen year old Russian make the decision to 290 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 1: invade Ukraine. No, exactly, and so you know, this is 291 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 1: also not the war that's been sold to the Russian public, 292 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 1: which is part of why Putin is having some trouble 293 00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:30,359 Speaker 1: at home. And again it's impossible to say how widespread 294 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 1: that is. They put on a new poll from like 295 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 1: a Russian government affiliated polster that's like, actually Putin's approval 296 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 1: rating went up. Hard to say that that's the case, 297 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 1: but who knows. There's certainly some descent, very brave descent 298 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 1: in the streets right now that we should absolutely applaud. 299 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 1: But yeah, it's a horrific loss of life, and it 300 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 1: would not be surprising if the reports a very low 301 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:55,840 Speaker 1: morale from the Russian troops are true. Yeah, I think 302 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 1: it is true, because what were they told. They were 303 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 1: told this is a peacekeeping mission, you know, they were told, look, 304 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 1: we're not the aggressors here, and then you go in 305 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 1: and you're you're having to meet Ukrainians face to face, 306 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 1: you're being given the orders to shell apartment buildings and 307 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 1: things of this nature. It would not be at all 308 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 1: shocking if those reports of low morale are in fact true. 309 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 1: It's impossible to know exactly how many lives have been 310 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 1: lost on either side of this conflict. At this point, 311 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 1: there was an independent estimate that projected about fifteen hundred 312 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 1: lives lost for the Russians and about the same for 313 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians. Make yeah, it makes sense again, And even 314 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 1: this independent estimate said, like, we really don't we really 315 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 1: can't know precisely, but that's what people who are trying 316 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 1: to be objective about this are projecting. And again, for 317 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:50,680 Speaker 1: one more comparison, during our twenty years of war in Afghanistan, 318 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 1: we lost twenty five hundred American troops. So if the 319 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 1: independent estimates are at fifteen hundred. We lost twenty five 320 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 1: hundred total over twenty years, and that was a horrific 321 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 1: and catastrophic loss of life obviously. So you know, there 322 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 1: are a lot of mothers who are losing their children 323 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:11,840 Speaker 1: right now on both sides of this conflict that should 324 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:13,760 Speaker 1: not be overlooked and who are not going to be 325 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:16,400 Speaker 1: happy about what's going on, right And look like you said, yeah, 326 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 1: it's propaganda, but I have to believe. I mean, what 327 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:22,239 Speaker 1: I do believe is that, regardless of circumstance, losing your 328 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:25,679 Speaker 1: child on both sides of this conflict is a horrific experience. 329 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:27,920 Speaker 1: And this is something I've been trying to point out 330 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: in terms of domestic Russian support. Do not underestimate what 331 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 1: it means whenever somebody loses their kid, they are liable 332 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:38,639 Speaker 1: to come out and actually speak out and say something. 333 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:42,480 Speaker 1: It happened here in America. Remember Code Pink. I mean, 334 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:45,640 Speaker 1: I forget what her name is, Cindy Sheen, Yes, right, 335 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:50,680 Speaker 1: she was a national figure in America. Sammy outside of 336 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 1: the Waco, Texas ranch being like, you know, I'm not 337 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:55,359 Speaker 1: going to leave here until you come out and apologize 338 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:57,919 Speaker 1: to me, because my son died in Iraq. She was 339 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 1: all over the news. I'm not saying that's going to 340 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,439 Speaker 1: happen in Russia, but having read a little bit about 341 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 1: the moms who lost Russian soldiers in Afghanistan and how 342 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,359 Speaker 1: they were treated terribly, the Russian Soviet Union was not 343 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:15,880 Speaker 1: allowing them to hold official ceremonies and not allowing them 344 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 1: to grieve in public because they didn't want to destroy morale. 345 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:23,119 Speaker 1: Those fifteen thousand soldiers who died their parents made a 346 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:26,359 Speaker 1: big stink in Moscow and all throughout the country, and 347 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 1: it had a significant impact. It was whispered amongst oh, 348 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:32,239 Speaker 1: so and so just died in Afghanistan. So and so 349 00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 1: just died in Afghanistan. And look, I mean they've already 350 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:38,280 Speaker 1: come out and said we're going to pay families. I 351 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:40,159 Speaker 1: think it's one hundred dollars a year some sort of 352 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:43,080 Speaker 1: pension of which is nothing. You know, come on and 353 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:46,439 Speaker 1: to these people. But really it goes to show you 354 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 1: that when people start dying and when parents start losing 355 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:54,159 Speaker 1: their kids, if there is not a major buy in 356 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 1: from the population, that is going to have a domestic 357 00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:59,920 Speaker 1: political effect, whether you like it or not. No matter 358 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:03,399 Speaker 1: how locked down your country, state media and all of 359 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:06,360 Speaker 1: that is. And whatever the number is, it's only been 360 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,280 Speaker 1: eight days and it's going to rise. The civilian number also, 361 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:13,159 Speaker 1: we have no idea. The United Nations right now says 362 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 1: two hundred and twenty seven civilians have been killed and 363 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 1: five hundred and twenty five have been injured between February 364 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,640 Speaker 1: twenty fourth and March first. They say that's very likely 365 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:25,440 Speaker 1: dramatically undercounts that, but that's what the UN says, probably 366 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:27,439 Speaker 1: the best figure that's floating out there, So let's go 367 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,200 Speaker 1: with it, because there's so much propaganda really on both 368 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,440 Speaker 1: sides about exactly which one it is, and even the 369 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,959 Speaker 1: UN is exactly the most trustworthy figure. So you know, 370 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 1: the bottom line, it's been a week. At least a 371 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 1: couple hundred Russians are dead, at least what a couple 372 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:46,240 Speaker 1: hundred Ukrainians are dead, yeah, civilians, and then at least 373 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 1: probably more than a couple hundred Ukrainian soldiers are dead. 374 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,119 Speaker 1: And that's just in the first week. So it really 375 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:56,840 Speaker 1: is just a total, total tragedy. Yeah, it's horrific, especially 376 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 1: you put it in the scale, especially probably what's to come, 377 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,120 Speaker 1: which is a brutal insurgency and a brutal takeover of 378 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: a lot of these cities. I really feel for these people. Yeah, no, 379 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:09,679 Speaker 1: that's absolutely right, And you can also see that, you know, 380 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 1: the Krumlin is taking a lot of aggressive actions within 381 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 1: Russia to shut down any media that is at all independent, 382 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:21,480 Speaker 1: which also indicates a level of insecurity about how the 383 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,520 Speaker 1: population is feeling about this war and its impact on 384 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 1: their own lives. And you know, their sense that this 385 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:31,200 Speaker 1: was not in fact a sort of righteous defensive maneuver, 386 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:33,440 Speaker 1: which is what the Krumlin is trying to sell them on. 387 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,720 Speaker 1: That's one indication. Obviously, the people who continue to come 388 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:41,840 Speaker 1: out very bravely into the streets facing arrest and persecution 389 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 1: from authorities is another indication that they did not do 390 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:49,000 Speaker 1: whatever they needed to do in order to be able 391 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 1: to get the population fully on board. And again, it's 392 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:56,840 Speaker 1: impossible to know what the sort of breakdown is of 393 00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:00,399 Speaker 1: public sentiment for and against this war, but I think 394 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:04,320 Speaker 1: judging from the external signs of people by the thousands 395 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:08,240 Speaker 1: being willing to come into the streets and the Russian 396 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 1: authorities shutting down every semblance of independent media, that tells 397 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:14,919 Speaker 1: you they are not feeling like they have done a 398 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 1: great job winning the propaganda war. And again in terms 399 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 1: of I say this every day, but I think it's 400 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:25,160 Speaker 1: really important to remember as we're evaluating what is happening 401 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 1: on the ground, the Russians also are not because of 402 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,359 Speaker 1: the way they've tried to sell this war to their population, 403 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:35,880 Speaker 1: they're not really able to tout their battleground wins. Battlefield 404 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:39,320 Speaker 1: wins must important the way that the Ukrainians are, so 405 00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 1: that also creates an asymmetric sort of information environment. So 406 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 1: just keep that in mind. But even that being said, 407 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:51,200 Speaker 1: we now see this morning some significant Russian gains where 408 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,880 Speaker 1: some of the Ukrainian defenses are starting to fall. Yeah, 409 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:55,960 Speaker 1: and we will go and put this up there on 410 00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,879 Speaker 1: the screen. In terms of the reports of lower morale, 411 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,119 Speaker 1: it all fits. It would make a lot of sense. 412 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 1: There are some videos actually coming out of Russian troops 413 00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,439 Speaker 1: having to go into grocery stores in some of the 414 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,680 Speaker 1: cities that they conquered. All that just shows you is 415 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,359 Speaker 1: that if they're going and they're not they're taking food, 416 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,679 Speaker 1: that means that they're probably not being well fed. Uh. 417 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,040 Speaker 1: You can also surmise, like I said, on the maintenance 418 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,280 Speaker 1: of a lot of this stuff. It's very demoralizing to 419 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: have to lose equipment, of bandon equipment, and you know, 420 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 1: even taking prisoner, running out of fuel, all these things. 421 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,040 Speaker 1: It just shows you that the higher command in the 422 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,480 Speaker 1: brass are not thought really about your well being and 423 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,200 Speaker 1: your welfare. So look, that could all change. Like we says, 424 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 1: it's only been eight days since this happened, that's extraordinarily 425 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 1: early in the history of warfare. It's very likely this 426 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,320 Speaker 1: is going to drag on for years, five years or 427 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:46,119 Speaker 1: something like that. People don't want to hear that. But 428 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 1: and I'm not saying it's going to be a shooting 429 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,200 Speaker 1: warrant all that time. But in terms of a settlement 430 00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,159 Speaker 1: and in terms of when things get back to normal 431 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 1: a they could never be, we don't know what that is. 432 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,879 Speaker 1: And insurgencies that lasts a long time. I mean that 433 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 1: another reason that that number of four hundred to combat debts. 434 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 1: We didn't really have a full blown insurgency in Iraq 435 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:06,640 Speaker 1: until two years in since two thousand and five. I mean, 436 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 1: it can take a long time. So this is why 437 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 1: I said at the beginning, never underestimate they follow on 438 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 1: in the fortieth effects of war, and I think the 439 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:17,520 Speaker 1: Russians are going to find that out really the hard 440 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 1: way in the years to come. Yeah, as much as 441 00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,359 Speaker 1: they are more committed to Ukraine than we are, the 442 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:26,080 Speaker 1: Ukrainians are more committed to Ukraine than the Russians are. 443 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 1: And I think there were some dramatic miscalculations here going in. Yeah, 444 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:31,919 Speaker 1: that's smart, Okay, why don't we go ahead and move 445 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 1: on to China. Yeah, So there has been some contradictory 446 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:41,639 Speaker 1: reports and signs about exactly China's positioning in all of this. 447 00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:43,960 Speaker 1: So let's take you through all of those. Let's go 448 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 1: ahead and put this first New York Times piece up 449 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 1: on the screen, which is their reporting. And again this 450 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:53,280 Speaker 1: is based on a Western intelligence report and we don't 451 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 1: have the evidence, so keep all of those grains of 452 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,040 Speaker 1: salt in mind. But they're reporting that China basically had 453 00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:02,479 Speaker 1: a heads up before for this invasion and kind of 454 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 1: gave the okay as long as the Russians waited until 455 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,639 Speaker 1: after the Olympic. Yes, and that, of course is exactly 456 00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:13,520 Speaker 1: when the invasion actually happened. And it's funny because I 457 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 1: was talking to a friend of mine who works for 458 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:19,480 Speaker 1: the government last week who's just a regular like civilian 459 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 1: Jude and He's like, I called this date because I 460 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 1: knew they wouldn't do it while the Chinese Olympics in China, 461 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,359 Speaker 1: we're going on the time. But it actually seems to 462 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,879 Speaker 1: be a real thing. It may have been actually legit, 463 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,440 Speaker 1: I mean, and that brings China into kind of a 464 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:37,760 Speaker 1: level of complicity and makes some of their actions after 465 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:39,879 Speaker 1: the fact makes sense, the fact that they've helped to 466 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:42,800 Speaker 1: bolster the Russian wheat market. Let's put the next element 467 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:46,320 Speaker 1: up on the screen. There's a UN Security Council, there's 468 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 1: a UN General Assembly vote, and one of the countries 469 00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:54,000 Speaker 1: that continues to abstain is China. Now I guess that's 470 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 1: better than them, you know, voting against the resolution to 471 00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 1: condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But they're trying to keep 472 00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 1: hands off. However, the very latest comments from China sort 473 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:10,399 Speaker 1: of signal a bit of a shift potentially in how 474 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,600 Speaker 1: they're viewing all of this, because I think they also 475 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,800 Speaker 1: have to feel, like, like Putin, this isn't going exactly 476 00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,440 Speaker 1: the way that they expected it would go. The Western 477 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 1: countries are more unified, there's been more consequences to bear 478 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:25,480 Speaker 1: on Russia. The military campaign itself is not going all that, well, 479 00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:27,919 Speaker 1: so let's put this next piece up on the screen. 480 00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,439 Speaker 1: China is signaling that they are ready to play a 481 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,760 Speaker 1: role in finding a ceasefire in Ukraine. And this is 482 00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,439 Speaker 1: the strong language here, This is the strongest they used. 483 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:42,119 Speaker 1: They deplored quote the outbreak of conflict. Those are their 484 00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:46,320 Speaker 1: strongest comments yet on Russia's invasion, and of course this 485 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:50,359 Speaker 1: really matters. They also said that they were extremely concerned 486 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 1: about the harm to civilians that came after a phone 487 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 1: call between the Chinese Foreign Minister and their Ukrainian counterparts, 488 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:02,280 Speaker 1: So there are conversations that are happening back and forth here. 489 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:06,360 Speaker 1: They also added they respected the territorial integrity of all countries, 490 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:10,399 Speaker 1: without directly indicating whether Beijing accepted Russia's claim to the 491 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,680 Speaker 1: Crimean Peninsula or shared its recognition of separatists in the 492 00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:17,879 Speaker 1: Dawnbas region of eastern Ukraine. So there seems to be 493 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,720 Speaker 1: a bit of a tonal shift here, and it matters 494 00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:26,960 Speaker 1: obviously massively, because China is Russia's biggest ally in this 495 00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:31,720 Speaker 1: fight in terms of the geopolitics. Part of what this 496 00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:35,240 Speaker 1: looked like going in is this sort of realignment of 497 00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:39,359 Speaker 1: Russia allied with China, with the West another on the 498 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,159 Speaker 1: other side, and so any signs of a sort of 499 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,480 Speaker 1: schism in how China is approaching this and thinking about this, well, 500 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:47,720 Speaker 1: they're the ones who are really in position to put 501 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,359 Speaker 1: a lot of pressure on Russia. There's one more piece 502 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:53,320 Speaker 1: that may give some insight into why they feel like 503 00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,560 Speaker 1: this is not, you know, furthering their interest if you're 504 00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,119 Speaker 1: the Chinese. This is from Foreign Policy. Our producer James 505 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:04,200 Speaker 1: found this piece Putin's War has killed China's Eurasian railway dreams. 506 00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 1: So a key part of the Belton Road initiative is 507 00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:12,439 Speaker 1: something they've dubbed the Iron Silk Road. This is a 508 00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:18,120 Speaker 1: railway corridor that crosses all of Eurasia, runs through Kazakhstan, Russia, 509 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:23,000 Speaker 1: and Belarus. And effectively, if you have this railway going 510 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:26,720 Speaker 1: through all of these countries, they could be massively impacted 511 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:30,639 Speaker 1: by European sanctions on Russia. Because almost half of the 512 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,960 Speaker 1: roots in this initiative, which is really again a sort 513 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,120 Speaker 1: of key priority, which has been held up and really 514 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:40,880 Speaker 1: used as propaganda with the Chinese population as well, half 515 00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:44,320 Speaker 1: of those routes passed through Russia. So they have their 516 00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:48,560 Speaker 1: own financial and strategic considerations here that they feel like, 517 00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,480 Speaker 1: are maybe this whole Russia invading Ukraine thing is not 518 00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,920 Speaker 1: going the way that they also had wanted it to go. Yeah, 519 00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:56,920 Speaker 1: it's very important that you put it that way. The 520 00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:01,520 Speaker 1: Belton Road initiative is central to the communist parties staying 521 00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 1: in power and selling the economic vision to the Chinese people. 522 00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,800 Speaker 1: So when you look at this, what you see is 523 00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,960 Speaker 1: a catastrophe for the Chinese to lose even a part 524 00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:14,359 Speaker 1: of that. Then geopolitically, for them to be aligned with 525 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 1: Russia in this way, it's a huge problem because if 526 00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,520 Speaker 1: you think Russia getting cut off from the global financial 527 00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,840 Speaker 1: system is bad, imagine China getting cut off from the 528 00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:27,080 Speaker 1: global financial system. I doubt many of these companies and 529 00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:29,200 Speaker 1: others would be willing to do that, given how much 530 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,679 Speaker 1: of the size of the market actually is. Yeah, that 531 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,480 Speaker 1: would cause them to really have to choose about what's happening. 532 00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,119 Speaker 1: That being said, even a ten percent drop would be 533 00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:40,560 Speaker 1: catastrophe for the Chinese economy and for the entire global 534 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 1: financial system. So when they're looking at what's happening with Russia, 535 00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,480 Speaker 1: they have to play this very very hard diplomatically, because 536 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 1: obviously they can't abandon the Russians. But abstaining in the 537 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:55,320 Speaker 1: Security Council on their behalf with Iraq, India and I 538 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:57,600 Speaker 1: forget what the other country was, they went ahead and 539 00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:00,800 Speaker 1: did so. That was a big gesture because they combine 540 00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:04,680 Speaker 1: that with that statement deploring the outbreak of the conflict, 541 00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 1: which obviously you can read both ways. But in terms 542 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,320 Speaker 1: of the actual relations between Moscow and Beijing in this, 543 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:15,440 Speaker 1: I think it's no question that Beijing obviously wanted Russia 544 00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,680 Speaker 1: not to do this until after the Olympics, but has 545 00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:21,880 Speaker 1: also looked at this with great alarm. Beijing has long 546 00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 1: believed that they can pursue kind of strategic autonomy in 547 00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:28,080 Speaker 1: terms of what they get to do in their country 548 00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,000 Speaker 1: and that the West would mostly frown but they could 549 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:32,840 Speaker 1: get away with whatever they want, and I mean they're 550 00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,640 Speaker 1: mostly and that has been true. But when they saw 551 00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:40,000 Speaker 1: what happened in terms of the global backlash to Ukraine, 552 00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:41,920 Speaker 1: and this is why there's a lot of takes out 553 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:43,840 Speaker 1: there like, oh, I think China is going to move 554 00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:47,000 Speaker 1: on Taiwan, I actually think this sets that back significantly. 555 00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,840 Speaker 1: I would say it reduces the likelihood if you're watching 556 00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:53,800 Speaker 1: the geopolitical cancelation quote unquote of all of Russia. If 557 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 1: you're China, you're ten times more vulnerable to that. And 558 00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,720 Speaker 1: if you have even twenty something percent of that backlash, 559 00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:02,720 Speaker 1: that crater your entire domestic economy. And if you think 560 00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:06,560 Speaker 1: the Russian oligarchs are reliant on outside banks and all that, 561 00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:10,400 Speaker 1: wait until you meet the Chinese oligarchs. These people are 562 00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,680 Speaker 1: probably ten times shadier, more corrupt, and have a lot 563 00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,640 Speaker 1: more to lose, and are in themselves also an important 564 00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 1: power broker within that country. So I think what we're 565 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:24,080 Speaker 1: watching with the global financial system cutting off Russia, the 566 00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:28,120 Speaker 1: kind of cultural pushback is something Beijing cannot risk and 567 00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:33,240 Speaker 1: actually needs to not happen for their economic expansion goals. 568 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,920 Speaker 1: A key part of for example, the Belton Road initiative 569 00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,640 Speaker 1: and they're twenty made in China twenty twenty five plan 570 00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:43,760 Speaker 1: is the ability to import massive amounts of natural gas 571 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:47,320 Speaker 1: and oil. Well, what's the easiest thing to cut off, Well, 572 00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,600 Speaker 1: it's energy resources. The same thing whenever it comes to 573 00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:52,920 Speaker 1: their trading routes. Part of the whole reason they even 574 00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:55,600 Speaker 1: want Taiwan and the Taiwan Straits in the first place 575 00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:58,480 Speaker 1: is to control the rules of the game for forty 576 00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:01,160 Speaker 1: something percent of the world old shipping, same in the 577 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:03,920 Speaker 1: Straits of Malacca and all of their ability to project 578 00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,280 Speaker 1: power in the sea. This is what it all comes 579 00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:08,840 Speaker 1: down to global trade, and if they get cut off 580 00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,720 Speaker 1: from the trading system, they're screwed. I mean, they truly 581 00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,040 Speaker 1: will crater and a lot of their power and ability 582 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:16,479 Speaker 1: to project power is gone. The way they look at 583 00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:18,760 Speaker 1: soft power is the same thing in terms of Africa 584 00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:20,240 Speaker 1: and a lot of the deals that they have in 585 00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,280 Speaker 1: terms of financing all of this. They're not even close 586 00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:27,320 Speaker 1: to being able to have a truly autarchic system in China. 587 00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:29,760 Speaker 1: So I would look at this and I would say, 588 00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,520 Speaker 1: what's happening as a catastrophe. There's going to actually be 589 00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:37,320 Speaker 1: and probably will invite diplomatic backlash on Beijing specifically because 590 00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:39,920 Speaker 1: of what has happened here. Combine that with the entire 591 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:43,880 Speaker 1: world rightfully blames them for not lying about COVID in 592 00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:45,800 Speaker 1: the beginning, and you have a big problem on your hands. 593 00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:49,160 Speaker 1: I mean, the Pew Research polling shows that favorable views 594 00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:52,560 Speaker 1: of China fell like fifty some percent across the entire 595 00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:56,160 Speaker 1: world East and West after COVID. Combine that with this, 596 00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:58,800 Speaker 1: they're now on par with Russia, not as much of 597 00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,840 Speaker 1: a pariah state, but very much have the like in 598 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:05,280 Speaker 1: terms of domestic political will to cut them off. It 599 00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:08,239 Speaker 1: exists if they do something in Taiwan. Yeah. And so 600 00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:12,120 Speaker 1: the reason this is so incredibly critical is because they 601 00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:14,320 Speaker 1: are the people who could really put pressure off. Yeah, 602 00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:18,680 Speaker 1: and they are yes, and it seems like they are again. 603 00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 1: You always want to take these things with a grain 604 00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:24,280 Speaker 1: of salt, but if they are truly shifting, you know, 605 00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:28,280 Speaker 1: hopefully that could force Putin to look for an off 606 00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 1: ramp here instead of looking to continue to escalate, looking 607 00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,800 Speaker 1: at other, you know, potential areas that he would want 608 00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:38,440 Speaker 1: to expand into. That's the hope. And you know, again 609 00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:40,760 Speaker 1: there are diplomatic talks that are happening today. I don't 610 00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:44,600 Speaker 1: think anybody expects much to come out of that, but 611 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:48,080 Speaker 1: somebody has to move off of their current positions if 612 00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:51,480 Speaker 1: you're going to have any resolution to this conflict in 613 00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,760 Speaker 1: anything approaching the near term. And if China can bring 614 00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,360 Speaker 1: pressure to bear on Russia, that would be a tiny 615 00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:03,480 Speaker 1: sliver of hope that you could see and opening some 616 00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,640 Speaker 1: of the other pressure that's being brought to Barrel. Let's 617 00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:09,800 Speaker 1: talk about the latest situation with the oligarchs here, So 618 00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,000 Speaker 1: let's go ahead and with this first pieces up on 619 00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:17,640 Speaker 1: the screen. So the Germans have seized a Russian billionaire's 620 00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,680 Speaker 1: super yacht. This ship. Are they called ships? Is that 621 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:23,920 Speaker 1: what they call them? A yacht? I don't know. Is 622 00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:25,760 Speaker 1: there a difference between a yacht and a ship? I 623 00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:29,320 Speaker 1: don't really know. There's anyway screaming into their cars right now, 624 00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,880 Speaker 1: I truly have no idea. Okay, I know people get 625 00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:35,480 Speaker 1: very picky about these distinctions. Anyway, this giant super yacht, 626 00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:39,520 Speaker 1: one of the largest in the world, was seized in Germany. 627 00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,920 Speaker 1: We've had new indications from the US government that they 628 00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:47,760 Speaker 1: want to even expand their list of which oligarchs are sanctioned. 629 00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:50,600 Speaker 1: We've also had reports from the UK, because a lot 630 00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:53,320 Speaker 1: of their money and toys are stashed there as well, 631 00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:56,640 Speaker 1: that they're going to get more serious about cracking down. 632 00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,719 Speaker 1: This is another interesting thing that we've been tracking here 633 00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:03,600 Speaker 1: is a little bit of schisms in the Russian oligarch 634 00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:07,440 Speaker 1: community with regards to their orientation towards the Kremlin. So 635 00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:10,000 Speaker 1: to put this next piece up on the screen. We 636 00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:14,479 Speaker 1: had told you before that this particular Russian billionaire, who 637 00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:19,000 Speaker 1: Roman Abramovich, who owned the Chelsea Football Club. Initially he 638 00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:21,440 Speaker 1: was stepping back from that ownership. Now he's saying he's 639 00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:24,440 Speaker 1: selling it all together and will use the proceeds to 640 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:28,319 Speaker 1: benefit quote all victims of the war in Ukraine. So 641 00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:32,880 Speaker 1: clearly there's not just direct government pressure. There's also a 642 00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:36,839 Speaker 1: lot of sort of social cultural public pressure being brought 643 00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,719 Speaker 1: to bear on these individuals. I have no problem with 644 00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:43,399 Speaker 1: that whatsoever. However, the other side of this, and this 645 00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,640 Speaker 1: gets a little bit tricky, but this is really important, 646 00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:50,000 Speaker 1: is of course all of these global financial institutions. They're 647 00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,000 Speaker 1: the ones that handle the money. They're the ones that 648 00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:55,799 Speaker 1: finance the superyachts, that finance the private jets, and so 649 00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:58,600 Speaker 1: you can't just go after the oligarchs. You have to 650 00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:02,920 Speaker 1: make sure that you know these global financial institutions are 651 00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:07,040 Speaker 1: also playing ball, and that gets very uncomfortable for governments 652 00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:10,240 Speaker 1: like ours that are in bed with these very same banks. 653 00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:13,560 Speaker 1: So one instance of this, let's put the Financial Times 654 00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:17,319 Speaker 1: tearsheet up on the screen, is Credit Suisse. They have 655 00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:22,520 Speaker 1: asked investors to destroy documents linked to oligarch and tycoon 656 00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:27,560 Speaker 1: yacht loans, which is a little suspicious. They've asked hedge 657 00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,160 Speaker 1: funds and other investors. This is a quote from them 658 00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:33,160 Speaker 1: to destroy documents relating to its richest clients yachts and 659 00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:36,719 Speaker 1: private jets, in an attempt to stop information leaking about 660 00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:38,480 Speaker 1: a unit of the bank that has made loans to 661 00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:42,200 Speaker 1: oligarchs who were later sanctioned. Investors this week receive letters 662 00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:46,200 Speaker 1: from the Swiss Bank requesting they destroy the documents relating 663 00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:50,360 Speaker 1: to a securitization of loans backed by jets, yachts, real estate, 664 00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:53,360 Speaker 1: and or other financial assets. That's according to three people 665 00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:56,879 Speaker 1: whose firm received the request. This story actually goes even 666 00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:02,960 Speaker 1: a level deeper. Credit Swse had massive losses because of 667 00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:06,200 Speaker 1: previous rounds of oligarch sanctions because they were sort of 668 00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:09,480 Speaker 1: a key player in the financing of the oligarch jet 669 00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,959 Speaker 1: and yacht market. And so what they did to help 670 00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:16,120 Speaker 1: to lower their own losses as they bundled these all together, 671 00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:17,879 Speaker 1: they turn them into a security and then they sold 672 00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:20,760 Speaker 1: them off to these hedge funds to try to limit 673 00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:24,080 Speaker 1: their own risk. So that's why these hedge funds had 674 00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:27,800 Speaker 1: these documents detailing all of these sort of like oligarch 675 00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:31,600 Speaker 1: yacht and private jet loans, and that's why they're being told, okay, 676 00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:34,680 Speaker 1: let's not really highlight the fact, let's keep any other 677 00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:37,600 Speaker 1: leaks from coming out about just how involved we are 678 00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:42,360 Speaker 1: with this dirty money. So that's peace number one, Peace 679 00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:44,959 Speaker 1: number two. And this is from our great friends at 680 00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:49,399 Speaker 1: the Daily Poster, David Zorota and co. So they're at 681 00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:52,520 Speaker 1: the same time that they're asking these investors to destroy documents, 682 00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:57,920 Speaker 1: the Biden administration is potentially taking a sort of giving 683 00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:03,120 Speaker 1: credit Suite a pass on an exemption that they need 684 00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:06,680 Speaker 1: in order to be able to be involved in pension funds. 685 00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:11,160 Speaker 1: So again, this gets to our government and other governments 686 00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,919 Speaker 1: around the world going to be willing to actually hold 687 00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:18,840 Speaker 1: these financial institutions to account in order to effectively sanction 688 00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:23,040 Speaker 1: these oligarchs. And there's some indications that they're going to 689 00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:26,239 Speaker 1: kind of give credit Suites a pass, allow them to 690 00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:29,680 Speaker 1: have an exemption that allows them to continue to profit 691 00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:34,000 Speaker 1: in the pension retirement fund industry even though they have 692 00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:36,880 Speaker 1: been convicted of fraud and should be kicked out of 693 00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:40,400 Speaker 1: that market. So again, the reason this is significant is 694 00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:43,000 Speaker 1: because it's an indication of whether or not the Biden 695 00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:45,880 Speaker 1: administration is going to really do what it takes to 696 00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:49,000 Speaker 1: go after these finances and the dirty money. Yeah, no, 697 00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:51,640 Speaker 1: That's why it matters the most on all of this. 698 00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:55,040 Speaker 1: And it's actually very interesting to consider the architecture of 699 00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:57,960 Speaker 1: the West financial system. For as much as we like 700 00:37:58,040 --> 00:37:59,719 Speaker 1: to think that we're clean and we have all these 701 00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:04,000 Speaker 1: banks regulations, here's the truth. We invited these Russians over here. 702 00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:06,600 Speaker 1: Why because we wanted their money. That's what a lot 703 00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:09,520 Speaker 1: you think. All of Europe opened its doors and I 704 00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:11,880 Speaker 1: was like, come on in, we got bangs. Oh you 705 00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:14,200 Speaker 1: want to hang on Monaco, It's all good. Oh you 706 00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:16,919 Speaker 1: like this, Oh, we'll take your credit whenever it comes 707 00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:20,239 Speaker 1: to this. Oh, the Swiss have your back. Great, sounds good. 708 00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,359 Speaker 1: We accept the check. Mister Abramovich, welcome to Chelsea. You know, 709 00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:26,880 Speaker 1: this is exactly the problem, which is that for years 710 00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:29,600 Speaker 1: we were willing to play foot see the entire West. 711 00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:33,480 Speaker 1: I'm using the Royal We was willing to play foot 712 00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:36,239 Speaker 1: see with this Russian money because they had a ton 713 00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:39,000 Speaker 1: of it. And this is the thing too about Russia, 714 00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:41,759 Speaker 1: They're just they're not even that big of a they 715 00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:45,440 Speaker 1: don't even punch that big on the world stage. These oligarchs, 716 00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,520 Speaker 1: they're from all over the world, use the Western financial 717 00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,280 Speaker 1: system to wash their cash and to use their dirty 718 00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:54,440 Speaker 1: money to purchase influence and to live lavish lifestyles. I mean, 719 00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:59,120 Speaker 1: the Chinese own half of New York along with the Russians. 720 00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:01,560 Speaker 1: That's where half of it is. Is the Brazilians Latin 721 00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:06,600 Speaker 1: American oligarchs, they own all of Miami. In terms of London, 722 00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:10,359 Speaker 1: London is literally known as a Russian hub for oligarchs, 723 00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:12,680 Speaker 1: and part of the reason why even some of the 724 00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,880 Speaker 1: British crackdown on the oligarchs rhetorically might be there in 725 00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:17,640 Speaker 1: terms of what I've been reading, in terms of the 726 00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:21,560 Speaker 1: actual enforcement, it would cause like an actual recession in 727 00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:23,960 Speaker 1: terms of the housing market for the highest cup of 728 00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:26,400 Speaker 1: the high end real estate in the city of London. 729 00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:28,399 Speaker 1: You can have a high end real estate receive It's 730 00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:31,680 Speaker 1: like yeah, I know, like little Moscow in certain parts 731 00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:34,760 Speaker 1: of High Kensington and some of these areas in London. 732 00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:36,600 Speaker 1: Saying in the south of France, I mean, you know, 733 00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,560 Speaker 1: if you even go there, you know, to see anybody 734 00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:42,719 Speaker 1: who is not from you know, Saudi Arabia or desk 735 00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:46,279 Speaker 1: Spot regime is you know, out of the ordinary. So 736 00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:49,359 Speaker 1: I think that's what it really reveals to me is 737 00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:52,759 Speaker 1: just how corrupt and how much corrupt money is in 738 00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:55,440 Speaker 1: the global financial system and is readily allowed that we 739 00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:58,080 Speaker 1: don't even get to see until this happens. I have 740 00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:01,800 Speaker 1: no sympathy for these people. Threw them, take their yachts, 741 00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:05,680 Speaker 1: make their lives miserable. They're not good. But the fact 742 00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:07,759 Speaker 1: that it was even here in the first place, that 743 00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:09,960 Speaker 1: reveals a lot about us. Yeah, a lot of us 744 00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:13,400 Speaker 1: were willing to just catch those checks hundred percent. And 745 00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:16,720 Speaker 1: I think the previous report that we brought you yesterday 746 00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:18,880 Speaker 1: from the Daily Poster is also an important piece of this, 747 00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:22,399 Speaker 1: And just to remind you of those details. Because Wall 748 00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:26,200 Speaker 1: Street has made our financial system so opaque, so that 749 00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:30,040 Speaker 1: you know, a lot of these luxury condominium multimillion dollar 750 00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:33,520 Speaker 1: condos that are being snatched up in places like Manhattan, 751 00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:35,959 Speaker 1: like you can't even tell who the owner is because 752 00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:38,640 Speaker 1: there's such a series of shell companies and it's so 753 00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:42,920 Speaker 1: incredibly opaque. And so when you know, the Biden administration 754 00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:46,440 Speaker 1: says we're going to sanction these oligarchs, it makes it 755 00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:50,000 Speaker 1: very difficult to actually do that because if you don't 756 00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:53,040 Speaker 1: know what they own, then you can't really sanction them. 757 00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:56,680 Speaker 1: So the fact that Wall Street has made those the 758 00:40:56,719 --> 00:41:01,640 Speaker 1: financial system so lacking in transparency makes it more difficult 759 00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:05,400 Speaker 1: to kind of exact any pain on the ruling elite class. 760 00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:07,600 Speaker 1: I'm going to be talking my monologue about how I 761 00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:09,880 Speaker 1: think those types of sanctions are what we should be 762 00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:13,240 Speaker 1: leaning into, and that the history of leaning into broad 763 00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:17,040 Speaker 1: sanctions that devastate the entire public is not one that 764 00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:20,560 Speaker 1: has resulted in, you know, the outcomes that we would 765 00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:23,040 Speaker 1: like to see. Not to mention the immoral dimension of that, 766 00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:26,279 Speaker 1: but the financial system has completely hobbled our ability to 767 00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:30,280 Speaker 1: go after people who have dirty money effective. Here's another one, Krystal. 768 00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:32,880 Speaker 1: It just came out of the Times of London this morning, 769 00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:36,759 Speaker 1: which is that building the sanctions case against Abramovich and 770 00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:39,759 Speaker 1: many of these other Russians in London quote may take 771 00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:43,080 Speaker 1: months because the Foreign Office in the National Crime Agency 772 00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:46,799 Speaker 1: has to have quote reasonable grounds for designating the oligarchs, 773 00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:49,920 Speaker 1: which requires them to then go through and subpoena their 774 00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:52,920 Speaker 1: banks and have to look at all this. So you know, 775 00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:56,799 Speaker 1: it's just another example, right of how difficult it's going 776 00:41:56,880 --> 00:42:00,640 Speaker 1: to actually be, given the architecture of this and when 777 00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:03,480 Speaker 1: you allow it in the first place to worm its 778 00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:06,719 Speaker 1: way into your financial system and into your society. It 779 00:42:06,800 --> 00:42:09,560 Speaker 1: is so incredibly difficult to root out. This is why 780 00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:11,839 Speaker 1: even letting them in in the first place was of 781 00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:14,239 Speaker 1: colossal and a gigantic mistake. I am not just talking 782 00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:16,319 Speaker 1: about the Russians. I'm talking about all oligarchs of the 783 00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:18,399 Speaker 1: Third world. I have a solution to this. I think 784 00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:21,479 Speaker 1: we should just seize all of the superyachts and the 785 00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:24,719 Speaker 1: private jets, and that way we can just take care 786 00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:27,319 Speaker 1: of it. Then there's no hypocrisy, there's no saying our 787 00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,160 Speaker 1: oligarchs they're better than those oligarchs. Let's just get all 788 00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:32,920 Speaker 1: of the superyachts off the map, and then we'll as 789 00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:36,840 Speaker 1: long as they see Jeff Bezos's rocket as well. Okay, 790 00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:39,520 Speaker 1: I'm down. I'm definitely down with that. The rockets and 791 00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:42,440 Speaker 1: the lay and the superyachts. Yes, I'm good with all 792 00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:44,719 Speaker 1: of that. Okay, all right. We also wanted to bring 793 00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:48,319 Speaker 1: you the very latest comments and from President former President Trump. 794 00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:52,160 Speaker 1: And the reason that this matters is because, as we've 795 00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:55,799 Speaker 1: been reporting, public opinion is very much in flux right 796 00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:58,880 Speaker 1: now about how they think about this crisis, how involved 797 00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:01,200 Speaker 1: they want to be, how much more they want to do, 798 00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:06,920 Speaker 1: and even whether they want to get directly militarily involved. Obviously, 799 00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:11,480 Speaker 1: the most significant factor in shaping Republican base public opinion 800 00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:14,560 Speaker 1: is Donald Trump, and that's why his comments here are 801 00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:18,239 Speaker 1: significant and I would say extremely troubling. Let's take a 802 00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:20,480 Speaker 1: listen to what he has to say. This is a 803 00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:24,280 Speaker 1: this is a holocaust. This is a horrible thing that's happening. 804 00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:27,279 Speaker 1: You're witnessing and then you're seeing it on television every night. 805 00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:32,960 Speaker 1: Who can believe that there's hit them in the building? 806 00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:36,320 Speaker 1: Do you hit their oil sector? That's a far cry 807 00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:39,799 Speaker 1: crystal from the original turn of phrase that Trump used, 808 00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:42,360 Speaker 1: why don't you remind us on the screen where he 809 00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:46,239 Speaker 1: said that Putin was a genius and very savvy. This 810 00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:49,920 Speaker 1: is the problem with Trump. You know, words matter, and 811 00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:52,040 Speaker 1: when you also, I would love to see you know, 812 00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:56,319 Speaker 1: where is the Jewish community in condemning this comparison? You know, 813 00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:59,759 Speaker 1: we should actually be very careful in our language. If 814 00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:02,560 Speaker 1: this this is the Holocaust, then you are implying what 815 00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:07,480 Speaker 1: we are implying, a genocidal campaign that must be stopped, 816 00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:10,680 Speaker 1: the whole never again campaign that would kick in a 817 00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:14,120 Speaker 1: very significant military response from the United States for that 818 00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:18,000 Speaker 1: to happen. Do not use these words lightly. Just as 819 00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:21,440 Speaker 1: in the hypocrisy is that many of these people, because 820 00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:24,160 Speaker 1: they politically align with Trump, are not willing to call 821 00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:27,560 Speaker 1: him out on this. This type of rhetoric is dangerous. 822 00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:30,319 Speaker 1: If you are saying that that's what's happening here, then 823 00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:33,080 Speaker 1: that implies a level of military response which the United 824 00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:36,640 Speaker 1: States and the West is not currently undergoing. Also, calling 825 00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:39,200 Speaker 1: Putin a genius and savvy is bad. It's like, this 826 00:44:39,239 --> 00:44:41,680 Speaker 1: is the problem with the variance of Trump and why 827 00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:44,000 Speaker 1: whenever you're all over the place. I love the people 828 00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:45,920 Speaker 1: too who are like, oh, this never would have happened 829 00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:49,160 Speaker 1: on a Trump. Maybe maybe, but this level of back 830 00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:51,440 Speaker 1: and forth and all of that goes to show you 831 00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:53,719 Speaker 1: that if he's willing to call it a holocaust, here's 832 00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:57,080 Speaker 1: what's going to happen if he was still president. What's happening. 833 00:44:57,160 --> 00:44:59,719 Speaker 1: They're going to use those words inside of the deep 834 00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:02,520 Speaker 1: state and the administration and the neocons will say, mister President, 835 00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:04,000 Speaker 1: you said it was a holocaust, So that means we 836 00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:06,000 Speaker 1: got to respond with X, Y, and Z. From a 837 00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:08,239 Speaker 1: military strategy, He's gonna be like, oh, okay, you know, 838 00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:10,719 Speaker 1: or allow that to happen or not rain those people in, 839 00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:13,200 Speaker 1: and it just goes to show to me that he 840 00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:18,080 Speaker 1: has no grand conception of what's happening here being purely reactive. 841 00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:21,399 Speaker 1: Sometimes that's good, I genuinely believe that, Yeah, But when 842 00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:23,560 Speaker 1: it comes to this, that's terrible. When it comes to 843 00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:27,040 Speaker 1: potential World War three, that is horrendous, and you should 844 00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:30,120 Speaker 1: not people. What did we learn from the biggest idiocy 845 00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:33,240 Speaker 1: of stop the Steal? A lot of people believe every 846 00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:36,520 Speaker 1: single thing that this man has to say. Yeah, and 847 00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:40,959 Speaker 1: that's a problem. Whenever you're gonna use words like holocaust 848 00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:45,680 Speaker 1: and whenever that is put into the minds of people downstream, 849 00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:49,520 Speaker 1: effects are then going to be the most hawkish political options. 850 00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:51,960 Speaker 1: This is why I did a whole monologue saying, don't 851 00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:55,840 Speaker 1: compare this to Munich and to Hitler. Not everything is Hitler. 852 00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:58,680 Speaker 1: And whenever you use this type of language. Both on 853 00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:00,480 Speaker 1: the other side too, saying is a genius and a 854 00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:03,279 Speaker 1: savvy is going to invite, you know, actual sympathy to 855 00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:06,600 Speaker 1: what's happening. It is possible to say very nuanced thing, 856 00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:09,920 Speaker 1: what's happening with the invasion is really bad. The West 857 00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:13,440 Speaker 1: also played a role in rising tensions. However, that doesn't 858 00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:16,680 Speaker 1: invite a maximalist response. What's happening to the Ukraine is 859 00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:19,680 Speaker 1: very sad. It's not a holocaust. Yes, it should be 860 00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:23,040 Speaker 1: responded to. It also should not lead to an outright 861 00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:26,919 Speaker 1: nuclear exchange between the United States and Russia. Why there's 862 00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:31,680 Speaker 1: a vast landscape between Putin is a genius and it's 863 00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:35,040 Speaker 1: a holocaust. There's a whole ground in the middle where 864 00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:37,480 Speaker 1: you can where you can occupy and actually make a 865 00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:40,520 Speaker 1: little bit of sense and be a little bit useful here. 866 00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:43,719 Speaker 1: I mean, this is where, Yeah, it's unfortunate that so 867 00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:47,279 Speaker 1: much rests on the utterances and like the mood of 868 00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:49,480 Speaker 1: this one man. This is one of those times where 869 00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:51,640 Speaker 1: I'm kind of like it was wronged for them to 870 00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:53,239 Speaker 1: kick him off Twitter. But I'm kind of glad he's 871 00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:56,200 Speaker 1: not on Twitter right now. But we do see in 872 00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:59,919 Speaker 1: real time the GOP base completely changing how they're thinking 873 00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,280 Speaker 1: about this. I mean, they're the ones now eighty percent 874 00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:04,800 Speaker 1: say we're not doing enough right because they think Biden 875 00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:06,680 Speaker 1: is weak. And look, I agree with you on a 876 00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:09,360 Speaker 1: personal level, but you know, in terms of yes, but 877 00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:12,480 Speaker 1: I have to say I would way rather have Biden 878 00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:15,680 Speaker 1: in there right now, who showed some restraint on Afghanistan 879 00:47:15,719 --> 00:47:18,920 Speaker 1: and wasn't pressured into you know, going back in or 880 00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:21,760 Speaker 1: staying in by the deep state. There, then either Trump 881 00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:24,240 Speaker 1: or the other person that we've been highlighting is Hillary Clinton. 882 00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:27,560 Speaker 1: My god, God, thank god she's not in there and 883 00:47:27,640 --> 00:47:29,759 Speaker 1: chief right now. Woman is not the present. I mean, 884 00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:34,759 Speaker 1: like every day she floats some other horrible idea like, hey, 885 00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:38,040 Speaker 1: let's let's just casually have cyber warfare, you know, let's 886 00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:42,479 Speaker 1: casually have McCarthyism at home. It's anyway, I'm very glad 887 00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:45,120 Speaker 1: that neither of those two individuals is commander in chief 888 00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:47,240 Speaker 1: right now, even as I have all kinds of issues 889 00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:49,919 Speaker 1: and lack of confidence in Biden as well. It's a 890 00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:52,560 Speaker 1: low bar to meet, but I certainly prefer him to 891 00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:55,879 Speaker 1: those alternatives because you see the level of irresponsibility here, 892 00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:58,719 Speaker 1: the layer of lack of care with language when it 893 00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:02,120 Speaker 1: really really counts. So yeah, we called it out when 894 00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:06,479 Speaker 1: it was Pelosi making the you know, Nazi comparisons, and 895 00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:09,200 Speaker 1: with him it's even more significant because I don't think 896 00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:12,000 Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi is swinging a whole lot of democratic based 897 00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:15,600 Speaker 1: public opinion at this point, but he really is the 898 00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:17,880 Speaker 1: one that people look to to see where they should 899 00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:20,759 Speaker 1: fall on an issue and how hard is it we're 900 00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:22,840 Speaker 1: going to tell you about, you know, Sager's about to 901 00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:26,040 Speaker 1: tell you about the media as well. How hard is 902 00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:30,320 Speaker 1: it to switch from we should do more to convince 903 00:48:30,400 --> 00:48:33,200 Speaker 1: those do more people to that do more as a 904 00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:36,000 Speaker 1: no fly zone, or that do more is you know, 905 00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:39,040 Speaker 1: more army in a way that is even more provocative 906 00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:42,040 Speaker 1: than what we've already done. It's not that hard once 907 00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:44,640 Speaker 1: you already have people bought into the idea of we're 908 00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:47,839 Speaker 1: not doing enough and this is a holocaust that justifies 909 00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:51,399 Speaker 1: all kinds of escalation that we don't want. I unfortunately 910 00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:54,640 Speaker 1: see this so clearly, which is that what I saw 911 00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:56,959 Speaker 1: in Afghanistan was that a bunch of people who claim 912 00:48:57,040 --> 00:49:01,600 Speaker 1: to be America first are actually just reactive, emotional people 913 00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:04,239 Speaker 1: willing to be played by the media and the neocons 914 00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:07,080 Speaker 1: because they hate Joe Biden so much it short circuits 915 00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:10,040 Speaker 1: their brain into what an actual foreign policy of what 916 00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:12,319 Speaker 1: they claim to want looks like. This is going to 917 00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:14,680 Speaker 1: be the same thing, which is that it's going to 918 00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:17,000 Speaker 1: come down to the narrative of Biden is weak and 919 00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:20,360 Speaker 1: when weakness is implied, like I said, I even agree 920 00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:23,360 Speaker 1: with you on a personal level, but when weakness is 921 00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:25,440 Speaker 1: implied that means you should do more and you should 922 00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:29,120 Speaker 1: be strong, and then the people who have a professional 923 00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:34,080 Speaker 1: ability to translate being strong with war mongering can hijack 924 00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:37,360 Speaker 1: use that rhetoric in order to then justify series of 925 00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:41,399 Speaker 1: escalatory actions which will lead to a nuclear exchange with Russia. Also, 926 00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:44,440 Speaker 1: I think everybody continues to make fun of US crystals, 927 00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:46,960 Speaker 1: being like you keep saying that this is going to 928 00:49:47,040 --> 00:49:49,600 Speaker 1: lead to nuclear war? What's your evidence for that? My 929 00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:53,279 Speaker 1: evidence is actually that NATO former NATO commander that we 930 00:49:53,320 --> 00:49:56,879 Speaker 1: brought all of you, Philip Reedlove, he actually laid it out. 931 00:49:57,480 --> 00:49:59,480 Speaker 1: A no fly zone does not just mean oh there's 932 00:49:59,480 --> 00:50:02,440 Speaker 1: a Russian over Ukraine, you should shoot it down. Well, 933 00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:05,359 Speaker 1: when you shoot that down, then they're going to fire back, 934 00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:08,120 Speaker 1: and where they fire back from is Russia. And as 935 00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:10,279 Speaker 1: part of a no fly zone, to enforce that, to 936 00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:14,279 Speaker 1: protect the safety of our planes, we would then have 937 00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:18,280 Speaker 1: to bomb their anti aircraft defense. And then they would 938 00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:21,520 Speaker 1: have to ensure that their anti aircraft defences get bombed, 939 00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:24,239 Speaker 1: so they would have to bomb our station in a 940 00:50:24,280 --> 00:50:27,200 Speaker 1: forward deployed NATO country. Oh look, you just hit the 941 00:50:27,280 --> 00:50:30,440 Speaker 1: NATO tripwire and now we are at what a fifty 942 00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:34,400 Speaker 1: percent likelihood of nuclear war. That's how quickly that can happen. 943 00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:38,600 Speaker 1: Two planes getting shot down and then a retaliatory action. Yeah, 944 00:50:38,760 --> 00:50:42,080 Speaker 1: that's five days away from a full blown consideration of 945 00:50:42,120 --> 00:50:44,640 Speaker 1: an actual nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Well, 946 00:50:44,680 --> 00:50:48,040 Speaker 1: and here's the thing about nuclear war is you don't 947 00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:50,880 Speaker 1: even want to have a one percent So are we 948 00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:53,960 Speaker 1: sitting here saying it's definitely that it's happening, it's gonna happen. No, 949 00:50:54,560 --> 00:50:58,480 Speaker 1: But you want to avoid even a tiny, little percentage 950 00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:02,280 Speaker 1: possibility that you end up in that situation, which is why. 951 00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:05,239 Speaker 1: That's the real reason why. I think that's the other 952 00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:08,479 Speaker 1: thing is why does this conflict matter so much? Why 953 00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:10,440 Speaker 1: do we devote so much attention to it? Why are 954 00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:13,239 Speaker 1: we following all of the ins and outs? That's the 955 00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:17,719 Speaker 1: real reason why is because this is how how much 956 00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:19,799 Speaker 1: this is the closest we have come to that kind 957 00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:24,600 Speaker 1: of nuclear precipice in decades, and so too, it's so 958 00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:27,680 Speaker 1: much closer than people think. That's that's it, And so 959 00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:32,480 Speaker 1: that's why we have a direct interest in every little 960 00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:34,959 Speaker 1: thing that happens here that we can possibly figure out, 961 00:51:35,280 --> 00:51:38,759 Speaker 1: because even if it's a tiny percentage chance that is 962 00:51:38,800 --> 00:51:40,880 Speaker 1: something that we need to pay very close attention to 963 00:51:41,080 --> 00:51:43,760 Speaker 1: and be very very deeply concerned about and do everything 964 00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:46,080 Speaker 1: we can do. I've I've been reading as much as 965 00:51:46,080 --> 00:51:48,600 Speaker 1: I can to try and give everybody historical parallels here, 966 00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:51,560 Speaker 1: like the world was so close to nuclear war in 967 00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:54,080 Speaker 1: the Berlin Crisis of nineteen sixty one and then the 968 00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:57,640 Speaker 1: October Cuban missile crisis of nineteen sixty two. I mean, 969 00:51:57,840 --> 00:52:01,719 Speaker 1: it came down to pure luck, Robert McNamara has said 970 00:52:01,760 --> 00:52:04,239 Speaker 1: in terms of a Cuba missile crisis and in terms 971 00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:07,040 Speaker 1: of the planes, this is a good example. An American 972 00:52:07,120 --> 00:52:10,640 Speaker 1: fighter pilot of a U two or sorry, of one 973 00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:13,440 Speaker 1: of the spy aircraft was shot down over Cuba and 974 00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:17,520 Speaker 1: there was significant consideration within the Joint Chiefs of Staff. 975 00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:19,399 Speaker 1: They're like, we got to respond, we got to shoot 976 00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:21,160 Speaker 1: them down, we got to go into that. That would 977 00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:23,520 Speaker 1: have led to a nuclear exchange within twenty four hours 978 00:52:23,680 --> 00:52:26,240 Speaker 1: of that happening. I'm just trying to outline that for people. 979 00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:28,880 Speaker 1: Same in the Berlin crisis in nineteen sixty one, with 980 00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:32,440 Speaker 1: the Berlin Wall going up, and there was a significant 981 00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:35,600 Speaker 1: escalation where there was an idea and a consideration they're 982 00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:38,840 Speaker 1: like if a tank crosses West Berlin, they're like the 983 00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:42,919 Speaker 1: nukes start flying within you know, twenty minutes, thirty minutes. Yeah, 984 00:52:42,920 --> 00:52:46,080 Speaker 1: that's all it takes. So don't underestimate even the slightest 985 00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:50,000 Speaker 1: little actions can and have led to the outright break 986 00:52:50,160 --> 00:52:52,680 Speaker 1: of a nuclear war. And I don't want you know it. 987 00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:55,839 Speaker 1: I just think I said this in our last show. 988 00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:58,960 Speaker 1: The unthinkable becomes thinkable quickly in times of madness. Well 989 00:52:59,080 --> 00:53:02,400 Speaker 1: especially while this is definitely a time of madness. I 990 00:53:02,400 --> 00:53:04,600 Speaker 1: mean there is a mass hysteria that is taking hold 991 00:53:04,760 --> 00:53:08,160 Speaker 1: that has you know, everybody banning anything that has anything 992 00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:12,319 Speaker 1: to do with Russia, vandalizing Russian seeming businesses, and I 993 00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:14,319 Speaker 1: mean all of that. You're in DC actually a great 994 00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:16,680 Speaker 1: bar Russia House. Shout out to Russia House. Yeah, which 995 00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:19,640 Speaker 1: is I mean this this type of hysteria and just 996 00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:24,879 Speaker 1: blatant xenophobia also leads to horrendous places. But the other 997 00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:28,279 Speaker 1: thing I was thinking about is the sort of the 998 00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:32,560 Speaker 1: incentive and the media environment is so much worse now 999 00:53:32,640 --> 00:53:36,400 Speaker 1: because you have the defense industrial complex, the military industrial complex, 1000 00:53:36,440 --> 00:53:39,759 Speaker 1: so much larger and more powerful. You know, every year 1001 00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:42,200 Speaker 1: they grow more powerful. Of course, their stock while the 1002 00:53:42,200 --> 00:53:44,920 Speaker 1: stock market has not been doing well overall, their stocks 1003 00:53:44,960 --> 00:53:48,080 Speaker 1: are way up. They have a vested interest in continuing 1004 00:53:48,080 --> 00:53:51,040 Speaker 1: to push escalating conflicts. And then you know, on the 1005 00:53:51,080 --> 00:53:55,480 Speaker 1: other side of this, the media only cheers in one direction, like, 1006 00:53:55,600 --> 00:53:59,040 Speaker 1: you know, politically, you're going to be rewarded every time 1007 00:53:59,120 --> 00:54:03,480 Speaker 1: for doing war and taking more hawkish actions, and oftentimes 1008 00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:08,160 Speaker 1: you're politically really hurt by, you know, taking the de 1009 00:54:08,360 --> 00:54:12,719 Speaker 1: escalatory tactics because sometimes that requires putting ego aside, that 1010 00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:15,560 Speaker 1: requires sort of acknowledging the limits of our power to 1011 00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:17,600 Speaker 1: something that you know, it's easy to kind of rail 1012 00:54:17,640 --> 00:54:20,360 Speaker 1: against and say, no, we got to be the we 1013 00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:22,480 Speaker 1: got to be the bad guy, we got to be 1014 00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:23,880 Speaker 1: the big guys. We got to be the bullies on 1015 00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:26,239 Speaker 1: the block, we got to be the world police. So 1016 00:54:26,600 --> 00:54:30,000 Speaker 1: that's also why this is a dangerous situation, and why 1017 00:54:30,080 --> 00:54:32,560 Speaker 1: do take comfort in the fact that we saw Biden 1018 00:54:32,640 --> 00:54:34,920 Speaker 1: resist some of that pressure with the Afghan withdrawal. I 1019 00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:36,600 Speaker 1: thank God for it too. Okay, let's go ahead and 1020 00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:38,879 Speaker 1: move on specifically to what you're talking about, because each 1021 00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:40,880 Speaker 1: of the examples that we're going to show you is 1022 00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:45,000 Speaker 1: exactly one where you can see what Chrystal just laid out, 1023 00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:49,640 Speaker 1: which is that the media rewards hawkishness and sleeplessly is 1024 00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:53,319 Speaker 1: willing to just walk you right into World War three 1025 00:54:53,480 --> 00:54:57,760 Speaker 1: under the griyse of compassion. First, let's put up Gail 1026 00:54:57,880 --> 00:55:01,160 Speaker 1: King from CBS News pressing Kamala har why aren't you 1027 00:55:01,239 --> 00:55:03,600 Speaker 1: doing more? Put that up there on the screen in 1028 00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:06,600 Speaker 1: terms of Russia's aggression. I hear you on that, But 1029 00:55:06,680 --> 00:55:10,040 Speaker 1: those images are heartbreaking to watch. We see innocent civilians 1030 00:55:10,080 --> 00:55:13,239 Speaker 1: being killed, we see children being killed, and the administration 1031 00:55:13,280 --> 00:55:15,680 Speaker 1: has made it clear there will be no boots on 1032 00:55:15,760 --> 00:55:19,000 Speaker 1: the ground. What will it take, Will anything change that? 1033 00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:21,719 Speaker 1: Will we stand by and watch innocent people continue to 1034 00:55:21,719 --> 00:55:26,120 Speaker 1: be killed? Here? Well, Gailia absolutely right. It's heart wrenching. 1035 00:55:26,200 --> 00:55:31,239 Speaker 1: It's heartbreaking the image of a missile that's struck just 1036 00:55:31,600 --> 00:55:35,960 Speaker 1: right next to a children's playground. The Ukrainians who are 1037 00:55:36,280 --> 00:55:40,799 Speaker 1: as civilians taking up defense of their nation out of 1038 00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:43,720 Speaker 1: pride and also an understanding of what is at stake 1039 00:55:43,760 --> 00:55:47,120 Speaker 1: in terms of their vitality and their independence. So it 1040 00:55:47,200 --> 00:55:50,000 Speaker 1: is heart wrenching, to be sure, But I will tell 1041 00:55:50,040 --> 00:55:52,759 Speaker 1: you the President is clear, we are clear we are 1042 00:55:52,800 --> 00:55:55,879 Speaker 1: not going to put US troops in Ukraine to fight 1043 00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:58,080 Speaker 1: the Russians, not on the ground, not in the air. 1044 00:56:00,000 --> 00:56:02,359 Speaker 1: But are we really just going to stand by and 1045 00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:05,600 Speaker 1: do nothing? And then what are we going to stand 1046 00:56:05,640 --> 00:56:09,480 Speaker 1: by and allow a nuclear war to erupt between our 1047 00:56:09,520 --> 00:56:12,759 Speaker 1: two nations? The lack of consideration by some of these 1048 00:56:12,760 --> 00:56:15,280 Speaker 1: people who are at the highest levels of the news 1049 00:56:15,320 --> 00:56:18,720 Speaker 1: media is stunning. You need to understand what you're saying. 1050 00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:21,200 Speaker 1: And it's not a coincidence that that exact same sentiment 1051 00:56:21,440 --> 00:56:25,160 Speaker 1: was expressed by NBC needs to chief Foreign correspondent Richard Engele. 1052 00:56:25,480 --> 00:56:27,960 Speaker 1: You know, something Glenn Greenwall has been pointing out is 1053 00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:31,959 Speaker 1: the outright shamelessness which which these people who are quote 1054 00:56:32,000 --> 00:56:35,279 Speaker 1: unquote reporters are willing to just admit that they are 1055 00:56:35,360 --> 00:56:38,440 Speaker 1: outright activists and are allowing their emotion to get the 1056 00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:41,240 Speaker 1: better of them. Richard Engle apparently bragged about how getting 1057 00:56:41,239 --> 00:56:43,440 Speaker 1: into Iraq was the greatest thing that ever happened to 1058 00:56:43,560 --> 00:56:46,239 Speaker 1: his career. You know Clarissa Ward, who actually praised some 1059 00:56:46,360 --> 00:56:49,880 Speaker 1: of her reporting on Afghanistan, well, apparently she's admitted on 1060 00:56:49,920 --> 00:56:52,800 Speaker 1: a podcast that she sent an email to Ben Rhoades 1061 00:56:52,880 --> 00:56:56,040 Speaker 1: during the bombing of Aleppo saying something like I hope 1062 00:56:56,120 --> 00:56:57,759 Speaker 1: that you know you guys can sleep well at night 1063 00:56:57,800 --> 00:57:01,960 Speaker 1: because Aleppo is bombed to the great hold on a second. 1064 00:57:02,120 --> 00:57:05,160 Speaker 1: Hold on, you're a reporter, you should not be advocating 1065 00:57:05,360 --> 00:57:09,000 Speaker 1: for that type of response. Also, let's take the Syrian example, 1066 00:57:09,040 --> 00:57:10,839 Speaker 1: and I'll admit at the time, I was a lot 1067 00:57:10,880 --> 00:57:13,160 Speaker 1: more hawkish, and I blame a lot of the media 1068 00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:16,400 Speaker 1: environment that I was consuming, which is, let's consider what 1069 00:57:16,480 --> 00:57:18,840 Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton and the establishment wanted to do at that time. 1070 00:57:19,040 --> 00:57:22,240 Speaker 1: They wanted to institute a no fly zone over Syria 1071 00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:25,800 Speaker 1: at the time when Russian active jets were flying around 1072 00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:29,320 Speaker 1: this place and dropping cluster munitions on people. I think 1073 00:57:29,360 --> 00:57:31,480 Speaker 1: that's terrible. What's gonna happen? Though we're gonna shoo down 1074 00:57:31,480 --> 00:57:33,400 Speaker 1: a Russian plane, you just ended up in the exact 1075 00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:36,000 Speaker 1: same scenario that I outlined in our previous block about 1076 00:57:36,040 --> 00:57:39,800 Speaker 1: a nuclear exchange, the thoughtlessness which which you're gonna stand 1077 00:57:39,800 --> 00:57:43,720 Speaker 1: by and do nothing. You cannot have that mindset when 1078 00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:46,160 Speaker 1: you were dealing with a nuclear power. This is when 1079 00:57:46,200 --> 00:57:48,040 Speaker 1: we talk about North Korea. It's the same thing. What 1080 00:57:48,080 --> 00:57:49,880 Speaker 1: the world's just gonna stand by and let Kim Jong 1081 00:57:49,960 --> 00:57:52,640 Speaker 1: uns starve his own people. It's not that easy, man. 1082 00:57:52,920 --> 00:57:56,520 Speaker 1: He's got an ICBM, he can destroy Los Angeles. We 1083 00:57:56,640 --> 00:58:00,320 Speaker 1: have to consider that. This is why nuclear power just 1084 00:58:00,360 --> 00:58:03,800 Speaker 1: the whole game of how we must consider politics. And 1085 00:58:03,880 --> 00:58:06,280 Speaker 1: unfortunately it is a guarantee for a lot of these 1086 00:58:06,320 --> 00:58:08,760 Speaker 1: regimes that if you have one, you can basically do 1087 00:58:09,080 --> 00:58:12,120 Speaker 1: whatever you want. I mean, that's the truth. Yeah, in 1088 00:58:12,200 --> 00:58:14,400 Speaker 1: terms of this technology. Well, and the thing that is 1089 00:58:14,480 --> 00:58:18,040 Speaker 1: so nefarious about the framing both of Richard Engel that 1090 00:58:18,040 --> 00:58:21,480 Speaker 1: we covered before and also Gail King of basically like, oh, 1091 00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:24,240 Speaker 1: you're just gonna let innocent people get slaughtered. This is 1092 00:58:24,240 --> 00:58:26,800 Speaker 1: how you end up with people who are supposedly liberal 1093 00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:30,760 Speaker 1: or progressive humanitarians being the most hawkish people on the planet. 1094 00:58:30,960 --> 00:58:32,520 Speaker 1: I mean, this is how you end up with the 1095 00:58:32,560 --> 00:58:36,560 Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton mindset of like, we have to do something, 1096 00:58:36,640 --> 00:58:40,240 Speaker 1: we have to Innocent people are getting killed, and lord knows, 1097 00:58:40,280 --> 00:58:43,480 Speaker 1: like it is horrific watching what is going on on 1098 00:58:43,520 --> 00:58:46,120 Speaker 1: the ground right now and tracking the loss of human 1099 00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:48,880 Speaker 1: life and the civilians who are being killed and the 1100 00:58:48,920 --> 00:58:51,920 Speaker 1: families that are sheltering underground, like we see all of that. 1101 00:58:52,040 --> 00:58:57,720 Speaker 1: It is horrible. But if you escalate those life losses 1102 00:58:58,200 --> 00:59:02,520 Speaker 1: just become even greater, even more suffering. And you know, 1103 00:59:02,680 --> 00:59:05,760 Speaker 1: if there's one thing that we've proved for our military adventurism, 1104 00:59:05,760 --> 00:59:08,080 Speaker 1: it's that we're not particularly good at accomplishing the goals 1105 00:59:08,120 --> 00:59:10,280 Speaker 1: that we set out to in the first place. So 1106 00:59:10,400 --> 00:59:15,560 Speaker 1: that's why I find this framing so really nefarious, because 1107 00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:18,000 Speaker 1: you end up turning people who should be on the 1108 00:59:18,080 --> 00:59:21,120 Speaker 1: side of de escalation, who should be looking at that 1109 00:59:21,160 --> 00:59:25,040 Speaker 1: bigger picture. You end up pushing them to think that 1110 00:59:25,200 --> 00:59:28,640 Speaker 1: the good and righteous and civilized society thing to do 1111 00:59:28,760 --> 00:59:30,919 Speaker 1: is to call for like a no fly zone and 1112 00:59:31,000 --> 00:59:35,480 Speaker 1: to intervene in a more aggressive way. Yes, seems so casual. 1113 00:59:35,840 --> 00:59:38,840 Speaker 1: That's exactly That's exactly right. And listen, I mean the 1114 00:59:38,920 --> 00:59:41,360 Speaker 1: Vice president's answer was fine there, but I wish they 1115 00:59:41,400 --> 00:59:43,920 Speaker 1: would make it a little more clear and lay out 1116 00:59:43,960 --> 00:59:47,400 Speaker 1: the terms a little bit more starkly of what exactly 1117 00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:50,120 Speaker 1: you are suggesting here. Yeah, they should push back, be like, wait, 1118 00:59:50,160 --> 00:59:53,520 Speaker 1: so you want a world war? We should use that 1119 00:59:53,600 --> 00:59:57,240 Speaker 1: sort of language so people really get what is going 1120 00:59:57,280 --> 00:59:59,320 Speaker 1: on and what that is ultimately all about. The same 1121 00:59:59,360 --> 01:00:03,080 Speaker 1: thing wh to Andrea Mitchell was like she would criticize 1122 01:00:03,240 --> 01:00:07,480 Speaker 1: Biden's response on Ukraine again for not wanting to do more. 1123 01:00:07,640 --> 01:00:10,280 Speaker 1: Let's take a listen and he could have done a 1124 01:00:10,360 --> 01:00:13,960 Speaker 1: much better job of explaining why we care, of broadening 1125 01:00:13,960 --> 01:00:19,480 Speaker 1: that conversation about democracy versus autocracies and describing what we 1126 01:00:19,560 --> 01:00:24,680 Speaker 1: faced with Vladimir Putin, describing what the irrationality is of 1127 01:00:24,720 --> 01:00:27,560 Speaker 1: his positions about Ukraine, why we should care about this 1128 01:00:27,680 --> 01:00:31,280 Speaker 1: country so much. So. You had the pageantry, you had 1129 01:00:31,280 --> 01:00:35,240 Speaker 1: the flags, you had the colors, the Ukrainian ambassador, but 1130 01:00:35,520 --> 01:00:39,080 Speaker 1: not explaining why we're not on the ground there because 1131 01:00:39,080 --> 01:00:41,720 Speaker 1: we may have to get involved in a counterinsurgency outside 1132 01:00:41,760 --> 01:00:44,760 Speaker 1: the borders. Yeah, why we're not on the ground, Why 1133 01:00:44,760 --> 01:00:46,400 Speaker 1: we're not on the ground there. Why we're not on 1134 01:00:46,400 --> 01:00:48,640 Speaker 1: the ground there. This again, this is what they want. 1135 01:00:48,640 --> 01:00:52,440 Speaker 1: They're thirsting for it. These people are crazy in the 1136 01:00:52,480 --> 01:00:54,800 Speaker 1: way that they set this all up. And you found 1137 01:00:54,800 --> 01:00:57,840 Speaker 1: this one, I mean, from Michael McFall This is insanity. 1138 01:00:57,920 --> 01:01:00,280 Speaker 1: Put this up there on the screen, the former US 1139 01:01:00,280 --> 01:01:05,040 Speaker 1: ambassador to Russia. There are no more innocent, neutral Russians anymore. 1140 01:01:05,240 --> 01:01:09,240 Speaker 1: Everyone has to make a choice support or oppose this war. 1141 01:01:09,520 --> 01:01:12,320 Speaker 1: The only way to end it is if hundreds thousands, 1142 01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:15,800 Speaker 1: not thousands protests, Putin can't arrest all of you. He 1143 01:01:15,840 --> 01:01:20,600 Speaker 1: also tweeted just yesterday Crystal. The arguments against moderates who 1144 01:01:20,600 --> 01:01:24,200 Speaker 1: do not want to invade Ukraine or star a war 1145 01:01:24,680 --> 01:01:28,640 Speaker 1: remind him of Mlk's frustrations with white moderates while he 1146 01:01:28,720 --> 01:01:31,919 Speaker 1: sat in jail in Birmingham. God, so he is now 1147 01:01:31,960 --> 01:01:35,960 Speaker 1: trying to justify a literal world war with Russia, invoking 1148 01:01:36,040 --> 01:01:39,440 Speaker 1: the name of Martin Luther King Junior, going against the 1149 01:01:39,480 --> 01:01:43,080 Speaker 1: white moderate. That's how much these people's brains have been 1150 01:01:43,160 --> 01:01:48,080 Speaker 1: rotted by this situation. It is a truly appalling, appalling 1151 01:01:48,200 --> 01:01:53,000 Speaker 1: sentiment to say there are no more innocent, neutral Russians anymore. 1152 01:01:53,520 --> 01:01:59,440 Speaker 1: What that justifies is horrific. I mean that justifies genocide. 1153 01:02:00,160 --> 01:02:02,120 Speaker 1: You say, okay, in our history, I mean we put 1154 01:02:02,200 --> 01:02:04,200 Speaker 1: Japanese people in camps. Is that what you're saying, is 1155 01:02:04,200 --> 01:02:07,080 Speaker 1: that what you're saying there are no innocent or neutral Russians. 1156 01:02:07,120 --> 01:02:10,200 Speaker 1: And this was some of the hysteria that I referred 1157 01:02:10,240 --> 01:02:15,520 Speaker 1: to earlier. Now they're banning Paralympic athletes from competing. Like 1158 01:02:15,960 --> 01:02:18,240 Speaker 1: what I'm going to talk about in my monologue, this 1159 01:02:18,640 --> 01:02:23,400 Speaker 1: oncology network to try to benefit cancer patients is pulling 1160 01:02:23,480 --> 01:02:27,320 Speaker 1: out of any Russian affiliation. Like what are people who 1161 01:02:27,360 --> 01:02:31,200 Speaker 1: are struggling with cancer, suffering from cancer have to do 1162 01:02:31,680 --> 01:02:35,200 Speaker 1: with what Putin's decision was here. Imagine if that same 1163 01:02:35,240 --> 01:02:39,280 Speaker 1: logic was applied to all of us during the Iraq War. Oh, 1164 01:02:39,320 --> 01:02:42,640 Speaker 1: there's no innocent or neutral Americans during the you know, 1165 01:02:42,680 --> 01:02:46,120 Speaker 1: the crimes we committed in the Iraq War with Guantanamo 1166 01:02:46,240 --> 01:02:49,640 Speaker 1: or any of our other many sins that we have committed. 1167 01:02:50,000 --> 01:02:55,880 Speaker 1: This is really horrific and it ends up justifying dehumanization 1168 01:02:56,280 --> 01:02:59,200 Speaker 1: and terrible ends. And by the way, you will never 1169 01:02:59,200 --> 01:03:02,520 Speaker 1: get out of a cod this way because ultimately, look 1170 01:03:02,560 --> 01:03:04,320 Speaker 1: at his point of you need some of the Russian 1171 01:03:04,320 --> 01:03:08,760 Speaker 1: people on your side putting pressure, internal pressure that makes 1172 01:03:08,760 --> 01:03:11,200 Speaker 1: this uncomfortable as well. You think this is a way 1173 01:03:11,240 --> 01:03:14,560 Speaker 1: to get there by smearing and sliming them all. Is 1174 01:03:14,600 --> 01:03:18,680 Speaker 1: basically like complicit in the crimes of Vladimir Putin. Insanity, 1175 01:03:18,800 --> 01:03:23,520 Speaker 1: absolutely insane. Xana Tafiki, is that how you should say it? Name? 1176 01:03:23,920 --> 01:03:27,080 Speaker 1: She said, there's so much complicity in Western countries by 1177 01:03:27,080 --> 01:03:29,920 Speaker 1: taking Russia's great corrupt money too, all the banker's luxury, 1178 01:03:29,920 --> 01:03:32,080 Speaker 1: real estate, sellers, yacht makers, business people. There was no 1179 01:03:32,160 --> 01:03:34,240 Speaker 1: secret to where the money has been coming from, and 1180 01:03:34,320 --> 01:03:36,560 Speaker 1: yet we let it flow. That might be a better 1181 01:03:36,600 --> 01:03:38,640 Speaker 1: target in my opinion, which goes to what we were 1182 01:03:38,640 --> 01:03:41,840 Speaker 1: talking about with the oligarchs here. So you know, to 1183 01:03:42,200 --> 01:03:46,720 Speaker 1: make these blanket statements is just leading to a blatantly 1184 01:03:46,840 --> 01:03:50,600 Speaker 1: xenophobic hysteria. People like Eric Swallow while calling for all 1185 01:03:50,720 --> 01:03:52,840 Speaker 1: Russian students to be kicked out in the country, I 1186 01:03:52,840 --> 01:03:55,960 Speaker 1: saw calls to like seize assets of all Russians and 1187 01:03:56,000 --> 01:03:59,960 Speaker 1: take their property and you know, pour out your Russian vodka, 1188 01:04:00,200 --> 01:04:03,520 Speaker 1: destroy any sort of like Russian cultural affiliation. This is 1189 01:04:04,000 --> 01:04:07,320 Speaker 1: It's scary how quickly a sizeable chunk of the public 1190 01:04:07,680 --> 01:04:11,760 Speaker 1: can be convinced that just blanket bigotry and xenophobia is 1191 01:04:11,800 --> 01:04:14,840 Speaker 1: the polite, civilized society thing to do. Yeah. Absolutely, And 1192 01:04:15,200 --> 01:04:18,520 Speaker 1: the kude gras of the dumbest response so far comes 1193 01:04:18,520 --> 01:04:21,760 Speaker 1: from Sean Hannity. Let's take a listen. You know, if 1194 01:04:21,800 --> 01:04:25,560 Speaker 1: we can see on satellite imagery where the convoy is, 1195 01:04:26,040 --> 01:04:30,200 Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe some smart country, maybe NATO, might 1196 01:04:30,320 --> 01:04:33,480 Speaker 1: take some of their fighter jets, or maybe they can 1197 01:04:33,640 --> 01:04:36,080 Speaker 1: use some drone strikes and take out the whole damn 1198 01:04:36,160 --> 01:04:39,840 Speaker 1: convoy and then nobody takes credit for it, so then 1199 01:04:39,840 --> 01:04:43,360 Speaker 1: Putin won't know who to hit back. Well, he's threatening 1200 01:04:43,440 --> 01:04:45,880 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons, Hannity, you talk about nuclear war. I'm not 1201 01:04:45,880 --> 01:04:48,640 Speaker 1: talking about nuclear war, nor would I support one American 1202 01:04:48,680 --> 01:04:52,360 Speaker 1: boot on the ground here. Yeah, that's exactly the idiocy 1203 01:04:52,640 --> 01:04:54,959 Speaker 1: that we've been talking about this whole show. Yeah, let's 1204 01:04:55,000 --> 01:04:57,080 Speaker 1: just bomb the convoy and they won't be able to 1205 01:04:57,080 --> 01:04:59,160 Speaker 1: figure it out because they're so dumb. Yeah, the don't 1206 01:04:59,160 --> 01:05:03,720 Speaker 1: have no idea who could be behind it? Who? We 1207 01:05:04,000 --> 01:05:06,160 Speaker 1: just won't talk about it. That is one of the 1208 01:05:06,240 --> 01:05:10,080 Speaker 1: most colossally stupid things that I've ever heard. And yet 1209 01:05:10,200 --> 01:05:13,600 Speaker 1: when you pair that with Trump saying this is a holocaust, 1210 01:05:13,800 --> 01:05:16,920 Speaker 1: that's the type of low IQ garbage now which is 1211 01:05:16,960 --> 01:05:20,080 Speaker 1: being beamed into the ears of boomers all across this country. 1212 01:05:20,200 --> 01:05:21,520 Speaker 1: And they're gonna be like, oh, you know, that's a 1213 01:05:21,560 --> 01:05:24,440 Speaker 1: pretty good point. Well, this is the issue. Look, I mean, 1214 01:05:24,680 --> 01:05:26,520 Speaker 1: I'm not saying those people don't think for themselves. I'm 1215 01:05:26,520 --> 01:05:28,520 Speaker 1: sure many people also thought it was as dumb as 1216 01:05:28,520 --> 01:05:31,120 Speaker 1: I was, as I did. But when you listen and 1217 01:05:31,160 --> 01:05:33,320 Speaker 1: this type of rhetoric heats up, it can lead to 1218 01:05:33,360 --> 01:05:37,400 Speaker 1: serious consequences. Obviously, the Russians would know it was US 1219 01:05:37,600 --> 01:05:40,480 Speaker 1: or any NATO country, and the whole principle of NATO 1220 01:05:40,760 --> 01:05:42,880 Speaker 1: is that they do it, it's we have to also 1221 01:05:43,000 --> 01:05:46,080 Speaker 1: defend them, so it doesn't matter who which country it is. 1222 01:05:46,240 --> 01:05:48,080 Speaker 1: And just because we didn't take do you think of 1223 01:05:48,120 --> 01:05:51,520 Speaker 1: the Russians bombed America and they didn't take credit for it, 1224 01:05:51,560 --> 01:05:55,240 Speaker 1: that we wouldn't immediately know who it was, especially drones. 1225 01:05:55,360 --> 01:05:57,440 Speaker 1: They're not that many countries that have that ability in 1226 01:05:57,520 --> 01:05:59,640 Speaker 1: order to do something like that, So I don't know. 1227 01:06:01,160 --> 01:06:03,840 Speaker 1: I mean, this is how touchy things are. We actually 1228 01:06:04,240 --> 01:06:08,640 Speaker 1: wisely canceled just nuclear missile tests. I was very happy 1229 01:06:08,640 --> 01:06:11,240 Speaker 1: with that. We're pre scheduled for this weekend, just to 1230 01:06:11,280 --> 01:06:17,160 Speaker 1: not cause any undo, alarm or potential for misconception about 1231 01:06:17,200 --> 01:06:20,480 Speaker 1: what our intentions were there. That's how touchy this is. 1232 01:06:20,840 --> 01:06:22,520 Speaker 1: So to think you're going to be able to like 1233 01:06:22,680 --> 01:06:27,920 Speaker 1: casually bomb with American drones this convoy and get away 1234 01:06:27,960 --> 01:06:30,320 Speaker 1: with it, and that that's not going to escalate and 1235 01:06:30,360 --> 01:06:35,720 Speaker 1: spark broader tensions and spark reaction from the Russians. This 1236 01:06:35,880 --> 01:06:38,200 Speaker 1: is insane And this is why I keep warning against 1237 01:06:38,280 --> 01:06:41,960 Speaker 1: You know, the large part of the population that says 1238 01:06:42,000 --> 01:06:44,720 Speaker 1: we need to do more, those are the people who 1239 01:06:44,760 --> 01:06:47,800 Speaker 1: are susceptible to this messaging and the media. And we've 1240 01:06:47,840 --> 01:06:51,920 Speaker 1: just shown you examples from NBC, We've shown you examples 1241 01:06:51,960 --> 01:06:55,680 Speaker 1: from CNN, We've shown you examples from the former ambassador 1242 01:06:55,800 --> 01:06:59,880 Speaker 1: to Russia, and from Fox News. They only push it 1243 01:07:00,200 --> 01:07:04,360 Speaker 1: one direction. There is not a single voice on any 1244 01:07:04,400 --> 01:07:07,520 Speaker 1: of these channels that saying we need to take a 1245 01:07:07,560 --> 01:07:09,600 Speaker 1: step back, We need to figure out how we give 1246 01:07:09,640 --> 01:07:12,040 Speaker 1: an off ramp to putin, we need to figure out 1247 01:07:12,240 --> 01:07:15,280 Speaker 1: how we take the tensions down. What does that look like, Hey, 1248 01:07:15,280 --> 01:07:18,360 Speaker 1: maybe these sanctions that are blanketing the Russian public, maybe 1249 01:07:18,400 --> 01:07:20,920 Speaker 1: they're going to turn the public against us and provoke 1250 01:07:20,960 --> 01:07:24,000 Speaker 1: a further escalation instead of doing what we want them 1251 01:07:24,000 --> 01:07:25,800 Speaker 1: to do, which is to bring Russia to the table. 1252 01:07:26,120 --> 01:07:30,040 Speaker 1: You will never never hear those voices, and not only that, 1253 01:07:30,320 --> 01:07:33,200 Speaker 1: a lot of those voices will be completely like treated 1254 01:07:33,200 --> 01:07:36,240 Speaker 1: as treasonus. They'll be you know, they'll have their podcasts 1255 01:07:36,280 --> 01:07:38,880 Speaker 1: pulled down and be kicked down of the public square. 1256 01:07:39,520 --> 01:07:43,080 Speaker 1: So that's why this is so volatile, is because the 1257 01:07:43,160 --> 01:07:47,720 Speaker 1: media only ever pushes you in one direction, and politicians 1258 01:07:47,840 --> 01:07:52,840 Speaker 1: know that they will likely benefit from a positive media 1259 01:07:53,040 --> 01:07:56,520 Speaker 1: environment that bolsters their popularity if they take the most 1260 01:07:56,720 --> 01:08:01,480 Speaker 1: the most aggressive toughest, most hawkish actions. They will benefit 1261 01:08:01,520 --> 01:08:05,040 Speaker 1: from that, and they will pay a massive price across 1262 01:08:05,080 --> 01:08:07,600 Speaker 1: the board from all of these outlets if they do 1263 01:08:07,760 --> 01:08:12,200 Speaker 1: anything to step back down that ladder of escalation. So 1264 01:08:12,400 --> 01:08:18,320 Speaker 1: that's why these media clips are so incredibly important, Crystal, 1265 01:08:18,520 --> 01:08:21,040 Speaker 1: you taking a look at well, guys, we have to 1266 01:08:21,080 --> 01:08:23,680 Speaker 1: do something. We must make them pay. That is the 1267 01:08:23,760 --> 01:08:27,720 Speaker 1: sentiment undergirding our response right now to Putin's war in Ukraine. 1268 01:08:27,960 --> 01:08:30,040 Speaker 1: And I have to tell you I totally get it. 1269 01:08:30,240 --> 01:08:33,400 Speaker 1: Seeing the images of apartment buildings blown up, civilians maime, 1270 01:08:33,560 --> 01:08:37,800 Speaker 1: civilians killed, and ominous forty mile long military convoy looming 1271 01:08:37,840 --> 01:08:42,120 Speaker 1: outside of Kiev. The completely natural human response is cannot 1272 01:08:42,200 --> 01:08:45,080 Speaker 1: allow these horrible deeds to go unpunished. That's to say 1273 01:08:45,120 --> 01:08:47,880 Speaker 1: nothing of the potentially broader threat that Putin's actions here 1274 01:08:47,920 --> 01:08:50,840 Speaker 1: in Ukraine represent. Will he stop at Kiev? Will he 1275 01:08:50,920 --> 01:08:54,160 Speaker 1: leave NATO countries unmolested? Will he be satisfied until his 1276 01:08:54,200 --> 01:08:58,280 Speaker 1: own imperial ambitions are realized? But as I watch our response, 1277 01:08:58,640 --> 01:09:01,200 Speaker 1: I fear we have usually embarked on a course of 1278 01:09:01,240 --> 01:09:05,160 Speaker 1: action that is unlikely to deter further war and instead 1279 01:09:05,520 --> 01:09:09,200 Speaker 1: may rush us towards it. Specifically, in our quest to 1280 01:09:09,560 --> 01:09:13,200 Speaker 1: do something, we have embarked on a program of unprecedented 1281 01:09:13,200 --> 01:09:16,000 Speaker 1: sanctions that will not only hurt Putin and his holigarchs, 1282 01:09:16,120 --> 01:09:20,679 Speaker 1: but will decimate the entire Russian economy. Not only did 1283 01:09:20,680 --> 01:09:23,040 Speaker 1: we kick major banks out of swift, but for the 1284 01:09:23,120 --> 01:09:26,639 Speaker 1: first time in history, we have sanctioned a G twenty 1285 01:09:26,680 --> 01:09:31,320 Speaker 1: central bank. We are directly attempting to force a complete 1286 01:09:31,520 --> 01:09:34,640 Speaker 1: collapse of the ruble. In other words, we have, with 1287 01:09:34,920 --> 01:09:38,920 Speaker 1: very little debate, committed ourselves to all out economic warfare. 1288 01:09:39,360 --> 01:09:42,719 Speaker 1: And if history serves as a guide, that economic warfare 1289 01:09:42,840 --> 01:09:45,320 Speaker 1: will be just as brutal and just as devastating for 1290 01:09:45,320 --> 01:09:48,479 Speaker 1: our opponent as conventional warfare would be. Is just instead 1291 01:09:48,479 --> 01:09:51,080 Speaker 1: of civilians dying from bombs and bullets, it will be 1292 01:09:51,160 --> 01:09:54,720 Speaker 1: famine that sends innocent people to their graves. We must 1293 01:09:54,800 --> 01:09:57,760 Speaker 1: consider carefully the morality of those human costs. But to 1294 01:09:57,920 --> 01:10:01,120 Speaker 1: really analyze what we're doing from a t tactical perspective, 1295 01:10:01,560 --> 01:10:04,679 Speaker 1: we need to first be specific about what our goals are. Here. 1296 01:10:05,000 --> 01:10:07,559 Speaker 1: It may be unpopular to say, but I actually don't 1297 01:10:07,600 --> 01:10:10,360 Speaker 1: really care about punishing the oligarchs or Putin or making 1298 01:10:10,360 --> 01:10:14,439 Speaker 1: sure anyone pays a price. I care about peace, ending 1299 01:10:14,439 --> 01:10:17,120 Speaker 1: the war in Ukraine, and even more importantly, averting a 1300 01:10:17,160 --> 01:10:21,360 Speaker 1: broader war, preventing nuclear annihilation. Those are the stakes, and 1301 01:10:21,479 --> 01:10:24,800 Speaker 1: that is what I care about. And unfortunately, the historical 1302 01:10:24,840 --> 01:10:28,639 Speaker 1: record on broad punishing sanctions makes it pretty clear they 1303 01:10:28,640 --> 01:10:31,400 Speaker 1: are more likely to push leaders to war than to 1304 01:10:31,439 --> 01:10:33,920 Speaker 1: bring about peace. First of all, let's have a little 1305 01:10:33,920 --> 01:10:35,960 Speaker 1: bit of context. There's a lot of speculation right now 1306 01:10:35,960 --> 01:10:38,880 Speaker 1: that Putin might be ill, either mentally or physically, that 1307 01:10:38,960 --> 01:10:41,679 Speaker 1: he might have become paranoid and detached from reality during 1308 01:10:41,720 --> 01:10:44,479 Speaker 1: these long years of COVID quarantine. Any or all of 1309 01:10:44,520 --> 01:10:46,760 Speaker 1: that might be true, but you don't actually have to 1310 01:10:46,760 --> 01:10:50,040 Speaker 1: assume a terminally ill or clinically insane Putin to expect 1311 01:10:50,320 --> 01:10:52,559 Speaker 1: that he might lash out in ways that would seem 1312 01:10:52,640 --> 01:10:55,680 Speaker 1: insane if he's pushed. Now, we've talked here about the 1313 01:10:55,720 --> 01:10:59,680 Speaker 1: political science concept of gambling for resurrection. That is a 1314 01:10:59,720 --> 01:11:02,160 Speaker 1: fan way of saying that people backed into a corner 1315 01:11:02,200 --> 01:11:07,040 Speaker 1: will take big risks, including doing seemingly crazy things. Putin 1316 01:11:07,160 --> 01:11:09,280 Speaker 1: is down big at the poker table here, so he 1317 01:11:09,360 --> 01:11:12,839 Speaker 1: going to cut his losses and walk away. That's unlikely. Instead, 1318 01:11:12,880 --> 01:11:15,439 Speaker 1: he is likely to double down, placing big bets with 1319 01:11:15,520 --> 01:11:18,080 Speaker 1: a slim chance of payoff and the desperate hope that 1320 01:11:18,120 --> 01:11:20,760 Speaker 1: he can still come out on top. The more that 1321 01:11:20,800 --> 01:11:23,080 Speaker 1: we back him into a corner, the more likely that 1322 01:11:23,160 --> 01:11:26,920 Speaker 1: outcome becomes. And that's not crazy, it's just typically irrational 1323 01:11:27,040 --> 01:11:29,960 Speaker 1: human nature. Add on top of that a massive ego 1324 01:11:30,000 --> 01:11:33,280 Speaker 1: and nationalistic fervor of the type reflected in comments coming 1325 01:11:33,280 --> 01:11:36,080 Speaker 1: out of Russian state media. Consider what we brought you 1326 01:11:36,080 --> 01:11:39,320 Speaker 1: before Pravda publishing this off ed stating that quote the 1327 01:11:39,439 --> 01:11:42,880 Speaker 1: little red buttons may seem the only viable alternative to 1328 01:11:42,960 --> 01:11:48,160 Speaker 1: a humiliating defeat. That type of nihilistic doomsday analysis should 1329 01:11:48,160 --> 01:11:50,240 Speaker 1: be enough to persuade you that the threat is in 1330 01:11:50,320 --> 01:11:55,240 Speaker 1: fact credible, that Putin would actually contemplate total destruction to 1331 01:11:55,320 --> 01:11:58,960 Speaker 1: avoid painful humiliation at the hands of the West. In fact, 1332 01:11:59,280 --> 01:12:02,759 Speaker 1: with his wild miscalculations in a wholesale invasion of Ukraine, 1333 01:12:02,800 --> 01:12:06,200 Speaker 1: heat has already proven that that is the case. History 1334 01:12:06,200 --> 01:12:09,439 Speaker 1: also provides terrifying cautionary tales about the actual response to 1335 01:12:09,479 --> 01:12:12,120 Speaker 1: sanctions versus what we wish cast the response would be. 1336 01:12:12,479 --> 01:12:15,280 Speaker 1: In fact, the last time we sanction a great power 1337 01:12:15,280 --> 01:12:17,120 Speaker 1: was in the build up to World War II. The 1338 01:12:17,240 --> 01:12:19,559 Speaker 1: use of sanctions had been pioneered and codified by the 1339 01:12:19,600 --> 01:12:23,040 Speaker 1: League of Nations, which required automatic collective embargoes of any 1340 01:12:23,120 --> 01:12:26,240 Speaker 1: nation starting an aggressive war. The aim of this pact was, 1341 01:12:26,240 --> 01:12:29,160 Speaker 1: of course, noble liberals believe that the very threat of 1342 01:12:29,200 --> 01:12:32,680 Speaker 1: financial warfare would be enough to deter hostile actors from aggression. 1343 01:12:33,160 --> 01:12:37,719 Speaker 1: Instead those sanctions, that threat of sanctions had the exact 1344 01:12:37,840 --> 01:12:41,959 Speaker 1: opposite impact. According to Henry Ferrell, writing at Lawfair, sanctions 1345 01:12:42,000 --> 01:12:45,639 Speaker 1: instead spurred Italy, Germany, and Japan to take aggressive actions 1346 01:12:45,640 --> 01:12:48,320 Speaker 1: in an attempt to make their nations impervious to the 1347 01:12:48,360 --> 01:12:51,559 Speaker 1: threatened financial attacks. We've already discussed a few times how 1348 01:12:51,600 --> 01:12:54,479 Speaker 1: sanctions taken casually with little debate by the US government 1349 01:12:54,840 --> 01:12:58,920 Speaker 1: emboldened Japanese hardliners, who viewed US sanctions as an overt 1350 01:12:59,000 --> 01:13:02,320 Speaker 1: and aggressive act of war, pushing the government into what 1351 01:13:02,400 --> 01:13:05,000 Speaker 1: was clearly in a rational move, striking our forces at 1352 01:13:05,000 --> 01:13:07,599 Speaker 1: Pearl Harbor and drawing US off the sidelines and into 1353 01:13:07,640 --> 01:13:11,160 Speaker 1: the war. The threatening position of sanctions on Germany may 1354 01:13:11,200 --> 01:13:15,120 Speaker 1: have had even more perverse results, According to Ferrell quote, 1355 01:13:15,240 --> 01:13:18,320 Speaker 1: the Nazi leadership saw the threat of foreign sanctions as 1356 01:13:18,400 --> 01:13:23,640 Speaker 1: further justifying its hegemonic ambitions. The more territoried influencer controlled, 1357 01:13:23,920 --> 01:13:26,760 Speaker 1: the less vulnerable it would be to the Jews in Bolsheviks, 1358 01:13:26,800 --> 01:13:30,799 Speaker 1: whom it believed were orchestrating the international campaign against Germany. 1359 01:13:31,280 --> 01:13:35,439 Speaker 1: In other words, far from limiting Germany's actions, Ferrell argues 1360 01:13:35,439 --> 01:13:40,240 Speaker 1: that sanctions were a factor pushing Hitler towards additional territorial conquest. 1361 01:13:40,800 --> 01:13:43,160 Speaker 1: In fact, we've already seen some echoes of this behavior 1362 01:13:43,160 --> 01:13:45,360 Speaker 1: from Russia, which has been under some measure of sanctions 1363 01:13:45,360 --> 01:13:48,479 Speaker 1: since twenty fourteen. And take this with a million grades 1364 01:13:48,520 --> 01:13:52,679 Speaker 1: of salt. But reportedly one intelligence analysis indicated that Putin 1365 01:13:52,760 --> 01:13:56,200 Speaker 1: expressed extreme anger over Western sanctions put in place in 1366 01:13:56,240 --> 01:13:59,040 Speaker 1: response to his attack on Ukraine, and quote felt that 1367 01:13:59,080 --> 01:14:02,760 Speaker 1: the sanctions had escalated the situation faster than he expected 1368 01:14:03,040 --> 01:14:05,840 Speaker 1: and beyond what he considered to be appropriate. But we 1369 01:14:05,880 --> 01:14:08,479 Speaker 1: don't have to trust the CIA or CNN for that matter, 1370 01:14:08,600 --> 01:14:11,760 Speaker 1: to see that Western leaders issued a joint statement last 1371 01:14:11,760 --> 01:14:15,120 Speaker 1: Saturday announcing swift and Central Bank sanctions, and that the 1372 01:14:15,280 --> 01:14:18,960 Speaker 1: very next day Putin raised the nuclear alert to HIE. 1373 01:14:19,000 --> 01:14:21,640 Speaker 1: We might see sanctions as something less than warfare, a 1374 01:14:21,680 --> 01:14:25,120 Speaker 1: peaceful means of pursuing noble objectives. It is very clear 1375 01:14:25,280 --> 01:14:28,360 Speaker 1: that the Russian government sees them as a direct active war, 1376 01:14:28,680 --> 01:14:31,200 Speaker 1: and the more that Putin is attacked and backed into 1377 01:14:31,240 --> 01:14:34,040 Speaker 1: a corner economically, the more likely he is to strike 1378 01:14:34,080 --> 01:14:37,760 Speaker 1: out militarily in response. At this point, if you want 1379 01:14:37,800 --> 01:14:40,600 Speaker 1: peace and not retribution or some other goal, what we 1380 01:14:40,640 --> 01:14:42,880 Speaker 1: should be looking at first and foremost is how to 1381 01:14:43,000 --> 01:14:46,519 Speaker 1: give Putin an offering, how to provide some sort of 1382 01:14:46,600 --> 01:14:50,120 Speaker 1: path that's not just face saving but actually meaningfully addresses 1383 01:14:50,160 --> 01:14:52,719 Speaker 1: the parts of its concerns which are valid in hopes 1384 01:14:52,720 --> 01:14:57,000 Speaker 1: of avoiding a broader conflagration. That might feel terrible. It 1385 01:14:57,080 --> 01:14:59,800 Speaker 1: might feel and in reality be the case that you 1386 01:14:59,840 --> 01:15:03,519 Speaker 1: are rewarding bad behavior, but it is the only viable 1387 01:15:03,560 --> 01:15:05,960 Speaker 1: path to an end of this conflict. This is not 1388 01:15:06,040 --> 01:15:08,880 Speaker 1: an easy thing for a declining superpower such as ourselves 1389 01:15:08,920 --> 01:15:11,400 Speaker 1: to do, because the truth is the sanctions serve an 1390 01:15:11,400 --> 01:15:14,400 Speaker 1: important domestic political purpose as well. They are a signal 1391 01:15:14,439 --> 01:15:16,719 Speaker 1: to our population that we are still the all powerful, 1392 01:15:16,840 --> 01:15:20,000 Speaker 1: unipolar players shaping world events to suit our ends. That's 1393 01:15:20,080 --> 01:15:23,519 Speaker 1: another problem with sanctions. Domestically, there is only an on ramp, 1394 01:15:23,560 --> 01:15:26,559 Speaker 1: there is never an exit. The politics of removing sanctions 1395 01:15:26,560 --> 01:15:29,439 Speaker 1: once they've been levied are disastrous. We remove some sanctions 1396 01:15:29,479 --> 01:15:32,000 Speaker 1: from Iran, only to have them restated under Trump, remove 1397 01:15:32,080 --> 01:15:34,240 Speaker 1: some sanctions from Cuba, only to also have this put 1398 01:15:34,280 --> 01:15:37,360 Speaker 1: back in place under Trump. In Afghanistan, our electorate is 1399 01:15:37,400 --> 01:15:40,559 Speaker 1: pretty much silent as our sanctions trigger a horrific famine 1400 01:15:40,600 --> 01:15:44,200 Speaker 1: and complete humanitarian crisis. But you can bet if we 1401 01:15:44,280 --> 01:15:47,920 Speaker 1: unfroze the Afghan government's assets, Democrats and Republicans would push 1402 01:15:47,960 --> 01:15:51,480 Speaker 1: to the mic to decry our supposed funding of terrorists. 1403 01:15:51,720 --> 01:15:55,120 Speaker 1: Sanctions on Russia, first levied in twenty fourteen, have only escalated, 1404 01:15:55,200 --> 01:15:57,760 Speaker 1: layering new sanctions on top of old ones and never 1405 01:15:57,800 --> 01:16:01,080 Speaker 1: going in reverse. In fact, current public sentiment is on 1406 01:16:01,160 --> 01:16:03,920 Speaker 1: the side of quote doing more, whatever that means. A 1407 01:16:04,000 --> 01:16:06,920 Speaker 1: Quinnipiac poll found that fifty seven percent of Americans believe 1408 01:16:06,920 --> 01:16:11,200 Speaker 1: our current historically devastating sanctions are quote not tough enough. 1409 01:16:11,720 --> 01:16:15,040 Speaker 1: Only three percent say they're too tough, and twenty nine 1410 01:16:15,080 --> 01:16:18,799 Speaker 1: percent say they're about right. In a potentially hopeful sign, however, 1411 01:16:18,880 --> 01:16:22,600 Speaker 1: Americans do remain committed to avoiding military conflict. What we 1412 01:16:22,680 --> 01:16:26,599 Speaker 1: need people to understand is that economic war, it's still war. 1413 01:16:27,040 --> 01:16:28,960 Speaker 1: There may not be tanks in the streets, but make 1414 01:16:29,040 --> 01:16:32,200 Speaker 1: no mistake the actions we've already taken constitute a hostile 1415 01:16:32,280 --> 01:16:36,120 Speaker 1: act of aggression. The consequences are deadly, and our attacks 1416 01:16:36,120 --> 01:16:39,479 Speaker 1: post an existential threat to the Russian nation. Removal from 1417 01:16:39,520 --> 01:16:42,880 Speaker 1: swift central Bank sections, seizing of assets, not to mention 1418 01:16:43,280 --> 01:16:47,160 Speaker 1: cultural humiliations like blocking Russian planes from our airspace, banning 1419 01:16:47,200 --> 01:16:50,479 Speaker 1: Russian media, banning Russian athletes, and even firing a prominent 1420 01:16:50,560 --> 01:16:53,880 Speaker 1: Russian conductor from his posts with the Munich Philharmonic, a 1421 01:16:53,920 --> 01:16:58,200 Speaker 1: network dedicated to caring for cancer patients, even proudly announced 1422 01:16:58,200 --> 01:17:01,800 Speaker 1: they were pulling out of all Russian collect operations. Seriously, 1423 01:17:02,320 --> 01:17:04,840 Speaker 1: what the hell? How does punishing people who might be 1424 01:17:04,920 --> 01:17:08,920 Speaker 1: terminally ill serve anything other than a venal desire for revenge. 1425 01:17:09,240 --> 01:17:11,200 Speaker 1: Fransan's foreign minister made the goal of all of this 1426 01:17:11,320 --> 01:17:14,479 Speaker 1: totally clear. We will provoke the collapse of the Russian economy. 1427 01:17:14,920 --> 01:17:16,800 Speaker 1: Do you think we would respond to that type of 1428 01:17:16,800 --> 01:17:19,559 Speaker 1: threat by declaring defeat and slinking to the negotiating table. 1429 01:17:20,120 --> 01:17:22,559 Speaker 1: Not a chance. We would escalate, and we would vow 1430 01:17:22,600 --> 01:17:25,920 Speaker 1: to make our enemy pay. Being tough it might feel good, 1431 01:17:26,000 --> 01:17:29,320 Speaker 1: it might feel righteous, but starving innocent Russian civilians, some 1432 01:17:29,360 --> 01:17:31,519 Speaker 1: of whom have bravely taken in the streets to protest. 1433 01:17:31,520 --> 01:17:34,680 Speaker 1: This war is not justice, nor is it wise. In 1434 01:17:34,720 --> 01:17:37,840 Speaker 1: the end, our economic warfare is a moral but more importantly, 1435 01:17:38,120 --> 01:17:41,880 Speaker 1: it is insanely dangerous. Maybe Pudin is not the only 1436 01:17:41,920 --> 01:17:45,640 Speaker 1: crazy one here and sagur there is a public appetite, 1437 01:17:45,640 --> 01:17:48,360 Speaker 1: fueled by the media always to be hawkish. And if 1438 01:17:48,360 --> 01:17:51,160 Speaker 1: you want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue, become 1439 01:17:51,160 --> 01:17:57,400 Speaker 1: a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com. All right, saga, 1440 01:17:57,400 --> 01:17:59,080 Speaker 1: what are you looking at? If you watched our awesome 1441 01:17:59,120 --> 01:18:00,800 Speaker 1: State of the Union life coverage, you'll allught to be 1442 01:18:00,840 --> 01:18:03,559 Speaker 1: briefly familiar with my mologue today. I thought it was well, 1443 01:18:03,920 --> 01:18:07,439 Speaker 1: mostly fine, a laundry list of the traditional checkboxes that 1444 01:18:07,520 --> 01:18:10,760 Speaker 1: any generic Democratic president would make. A missed opportunity, in 1445 01:18:10,800 --> 01:18:13,439 Speaker 1: my opinion, to use the Ukraine crisis to unify the 1446 01:18:13,479 --> 01:18:18,080 Speaker 1: country around a single message, no war abroad, war against fear, 1447 01:18:18,160 --> 01:18:21,200 Speaker 1: and scarcity here at home, central to both of those aims, 1448 01:18:21,200 --> 01:18:25,360 Speaker 1: with something conspicuously absent from that speech, nuclear power. Biden 1449 01:18:25,439 --> 01:18:28,519 Speaker 1: spent a significant portion of the speech allaying the concerns 1450 01:18:28,520 --> 01:18:31,640 Speaker 1: of Americans over higher gas prices, noting that he, in 1451 01:18:31,760 --> 01:18:35,120 Speaker 1: concert with US allies would release sixty million barrels of 1452 01:18:35,120 --> 01:18:38,479 Speaker 1: oil from the various strategic petroleum reserves across the world. 1453 01:18:38,720 --> 01:18:41,320 Speaker 1: I applaud that action, and yet what happened to the 1454 01:18:41,320 --> 01:18:45,280 Speaker 1: oil price? It soared after the Biden announcement. Besides that news, 1455 01:18:45,360 --> 01:18:47,840 Speaker 1: with some analysts now predicting that we could still hit 1456 01:18:48,000 --> 01:18:50,439 Speaker 1: as high as one hundred and fifty dollars a barrel 1457 01:18:50,560 --> 01:18:53,920 Speaker 1: despite the announcement, an average gas price across this country 1458 01:18:54,040 --> 01:18:56,080 Speaker 1: of four dollars a gallon or even five dollars a 1459 01:18:56,160 --> 01:18:59,439 Speaker 1: gallon is very much a possibility as this crisis continues 1460 01:18:59,479 --> 01:19:03,040 Speaker 1: to drag on. Effectively, every cent increase in the price 1461 01:19:03,040 --> 01:19:07,200 Speaker 1: of gas is a tax on working class Americans. It 1462 01:19:07,280 --> 01:19:10,280 Speaker 1: is a bomb dropped on the average Americans household finances. 1463 01:19:10,439 --> 01:19:12,920 Speaker 1: And if you combine that with higher food costs, which 1464 01:19:12,960 --> 01:19:15,880 Speaker 1: we are all going to have from the massive spike 1465 01:19:15,920 --> 01:19:18,800 Speaker 1: and wheat prices due to this crisis, we see a 1466 01:19:18,880 --> 01:19:22,439 Speaker 1: full fledged financial war on working people right here at home. 1467 01:19:22,680 --> 01:19:26,600 Speaker 1: And this war was an avoidable one born of idiotic 1468 01:19:26,720 --> 01:19:31,479 Speaker 1: green ideology which excludes nuclear power and wholesale corruption pushed 1469 01:19:31,479 --> 01:19:35,160 Speaker 1: by the fossil fuel industry. Both seemingly have a vested 1470 01:19:35,200 --> 01:19:39,360 Speaker 1: interest in keeping America more vulnerable, higher energy prices, and 1471 01:19:39,479 --> 01:19:42,920 Speaker 1: keeping the status quo through their respective idiocies. But while 1472 01:19:42,960 --> 01:19:47,200 Speaker 1: we were arguing amongst ourselves, our adversary was watching and grinning. 1473 01:19:47,560 --> 01:19:51,280 Speaker 1: Russia produces a tremendous amount of oil and natural gas, 1474 01:19:51,600 --> 01:19:54,400 Speaker 1: much more than they could ever need. And yet Putin 1475 01:19:54,439 --> 01:19:58,200 Speaker 1: has dramatically expanded nuclear power in his own country over 1476 01:19:58,240 --> 01:20:02,719 Speaker 1: the last decade. Why because he wanted a reliable source 1477 01:20:02,760 --> 01:20:06,080 Speaker 1: of domestic energy and to instead sell all of his 1478 01:20:06,160 --> 01:20:08,800 Speaker 1: surplus as much as possible to Europe and the rest 1479 01:20:08,840 --> 01:20:12,080 Speaker 1: of the world. All of Russia's natural gas. You never 1480 01:20:12,160 --> 01:20:14,559 Speaker 1: have that high on your own supply, as the drug 1481 01:20:14,560 --> 01:20:18,080 Speaker 1: dealers say, and he hooked Western Europe on his supply. 1482 01:20:18,439 --> 01:20:21,960 Speaker 1: They were hooked because they succumbed to their green faction, 1483 01:20:22,320 --> 01:20:26,160 Speaker 1: which demanded the Germany decommission its own nuclear power plants. 1484 01:20:26,439 --> 01:20:28,519 Speaker 1: And that's great and all if you have something to 1485 01:20:28,640 --> 01:20:31,799 Speaker 1: replace it with. But unfortunately for the Germans, that something 1486 01:20:31,880 --> 01:20:35,120 Speaker 1: is called Russian natural gas. And then when a war 1487 01:20:35,280 --> 01:20:38,759 Speaker 1: erupts on the European continent, what happens, well, what happens 1488 01:20:38,840 --> 01:20:42,000 Speaker 1: is that the German consumers are screwed and the German 1489 01:20:42,080 --> 01:20:45,719 Speaker 1: government had to bend over backwards to accommodate Russia until 1490 01:20:45,760 --> 01:20:49,280 Speaker 1: the invasion actually began. They are now scrambling to expand 1491 01:20:49,320 --> 01:20:53,479 Speaker 1: their energy infrastructure for more imports, and hilariously enough, they 1492 01:20:53,479 --> 01:20:56,439 Speaker 1: are now thinking about delaying the decommissioning of those nuclear 1493 01:20:56,479 --> 01:20:59,720 Speaker 1: power plants because they are in such dire straits economically. 1494 01:21:00,080 --> 01:21:02,840 Speaker 1: We can never let this happen here. Our reliance on 1495 01:21:02,960 --> 01:21:05,720 Speaker 1: global energy markets is a noose around our neck as 1496 01:21:05,720 --> 01:21:09,280 Speaker 1: a country, both economically and from a national security standpoint. 1497 01:21:09,479 --> 01:21:12,559 Speaker 1: And yet, during Biden's speech, when he made many of 1498 01:21:12,560 --> 01:21:16,080 Speaker 1: the same directional points I'm making, he conspicuously left out 1499 01:21:16,120 --> 01:21:19,519 Speaker 1: a source of clean, reliable, cheap power. Let's take a 1500 01:21:19,560 --> 01:21:23,040 Speaker 1: listen to all Americans. I'll be honest with you, as 1501 01:21:23,040 --> 01:21:27,160 Speaker 1: I always promised, I would be a Russian dictator. Of 1502 01:21:27,200 --> 01:21:32,360 Speaker 1: invading the foreign country has cost around the world, and 1503 01:21:32,479 --> 01:21:34,960 Speaker 1: I'm taking robust action to make sure the pain of 1504 01:21:35,000 --> 01:21:38,519 Speaker 1: our sanctions is targeted at Russian economy and that we 1505 01:21:38,680 --> 01:21:41,839 Speaker 1: use every tool at our disposal to protect American businesses 1506 01:21:41,880 --> 01:21:46,000 Speaker 1: and consumers. Tonight, I can announce the United States has 1507 01:21:46,040 --> 01:21:50,080 Speaker 1: worked with thirty other countries to release sixty million barrels 1508 01:21:50,120 --> 01:21:55,120 Speaker 1: of oil from reserves around the world. America will lead 1509 01:21:55,160 --> 01:21:59,320 Speaker 1: that effort. Did they see thirty million barrals of our 1510 01:21:59,360 --> 01:22:02,960 Speaker 1: own strategy patrol and reserve and we stand ready to 1511 01:22:03,040 --> 01:22:07,599 Speaker 1: do more if necessary. Unite it with our allies. These 1512 01:22:07,600 --> 01:22:10,600 Speaker 1: steps will help blunt gas prices here at home. But 1513 01:22:10,720 --> 01:22:13,320 Speaker 1: I know news about what's happening can seem alarming to 1514 01:22:13,360 --> 01:22:16,960 Speaker 1: all Americans. What I want you to know, We're going 1515 01:22:17,000 --> 01:22:21,000 Speaker 1: to be okay. We're going to be okay, are we? 1516 01:22:21,200 --> 01:22:23,759 Speaker 1: Because he continues to say that we can have solar, 1517 01:22:23,960 --> 01:22:27,519 Speaker 1: wind and quote so much more, so much more is 1518 01:22:27,560 --> 01:22:30,880 Speaker 1: the whole ballgame, folks. Wind and solar are really not 1519 01:22:31,000 --> 01:22:34,080 Speaker 1: that great uses of power, as Biden's own government admits, 1520 01:22:34,280 --> 01:22:37,559 Speaker 1: Solar and wind power only produce their maximum power potential 1521 01:22:37,720 --> 01:22:40,560 Speaker 1: are respective twenty five percent and thirty five percent of 1522 01:22:40,600 --> 01:22:43,160 Speaker 1: the time. Nuclear power, on the other hand, is at 1523 01:22:43,320 --> 01:22:46,960 Speaker 1: ninety three percent. Nuclear power produces just four to five 1524 01:22:46,960 --> 01:22:50,000 Speaker 1: percent of the carbon emissions of a natural gas powered 1525 01:22:50,040 --> 01:22:53,559 Speaker 1: power plant. It actually releases less radiation into the environment 1526 01:22:53,720 --> 01:22:57,559 Speaker 1: than any other known energy source than even solar, wind, 1527 01:22:57,720 --> 01:23:01,000 Speaker 1: natural gas, and coal. If you can care about the environment, 1528 01:23:01,160 --> 01:23:03,080 Speaker 1: you need to be pro nuclear and if you care 1529 01:23:03,120 --> 01:23:05,200 Speaker 1: about having an energy source that can run in the 1530 01:23:05,240 --> 01:23:08,160 Speaker 1: good times and the bad at high capacity, then you 1531 01:23:08,200 --> 01:23:11,519 Speaker 1: should also be pro nuclear. In fact, nuclear power is 1532 01:23:11,560 --> 01:23:15,440 Speaker 1: the only power source where legacy costs are not externalized, 1533 01:23:15,640 --> 01:23:18,519 Speaker 1: in other words, where the production of the energy itself 1534 01:23:18,720 --> 01:23:22,320 Speaker 1: produces costs for the community, a lah greenhouse gases and 1535 01:23:22,400 --> 01:23:25,679 Speaker 1: other negative externalities. As for the so called toxic waste, 1536 01:23:25,720 --> 01:23:29,200 Speaker 1: solar power actually creates three hundred times more heavily toxic 1537 01:23:29,280 --> 01:23:32,320 Speaker 1: waste per unit of energy than nuclear power plants. So 1538 01:23:32,840 --> 01:23:35,840 Speaker 1: why are people anti nuclear? Number one? There are two 1539 01:23:35,880 --> 01:23:38,240 Speaker 1: decades worth of investment in wind and solar, and a 1540 01:23:38,280 --> 01:23:40,559 Speaker 1: lot of people just don't want to admit that those sources, 1541 01:23:40,760 --> 01:23:43,519 Speaker 1: while finding good in some respects, are not the future 1542 01:23:43,560 --> 01:23:47,719 Speaker 1: in any measurable way alone. Number two, people and specifically boomers, 1543 01:23:47,760 --> 01:23:51,640 Speaker 1: are still very scared of three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima. 1544 01:23:51,760 --> 01:23:55,400 Speaker 1: Yet if you even assume a Chernobyl level event the 1545 01:23:55,439 --> 01:23:58,400 Speaker 1: worst possible accident, and a nuclear power plant is still 1546 01:23:58,479 --> 01:24:01,280 Speaker 1: less destructive than many of the major industrial events in 1547 01:24:01,320 --> 01:24:04,639 Speaker 1: the last city. A chemical leak, for example, in Bopal, India, 1548 01:24:04,720 --> 01:24:07,559 Speaker 1: killed tens of thousands of people. We did not stop 1549 01:24:07,680 --> 01:24:11,880 Speaker 1: using industrial chemicals, we tighten safety standards. Twenty six thousand people, 1550 01:24:11,960 --> 01:24:14,439 Speaker 1: for example, died in China when a dam broke. We 1551 01:24:14,520 --> 01:24:18,200 Speaker 1: don't stop using dams. As for nuclear waste, we've actually 1552 01:24:18,200 --> 01:24:21,200 Speaker 1: already solved the problem. The current US waste isolation plan 1553 01:24:21,280 --> 01:24:25,320 Speaker 1: in Carlsbad, New Mexico could accommodate the entire world's nuclear 1554 01:24:25,360 --> 01:24:29,400 Speaker 1: waste for the next one thousand years. Yes, you heard 1555 01:24:29,400 --> 01:24:32,439 Speaker 1: me correctly. The day that Russian invaded Ukraine, we called 1556 01:24:32,479 --> 01:24:35,160 Speaker 1: on this show for a nuclear new deal. Now stand 1557 01:24:35,160 --> 01:24:38,200 Speaker 1: by it even stronger. Right now, in the short term 1558 01:24:38,320 --> 01:24:42,080 Speaker 1: we need to bring price pressure down, drill frack, and 1559 01:24:42,160 --> 01:24:45,280 Speaker 1: alleviate concerns at the pump for people's bills. But in 1560 01:24:45,320 --> 01:24:48,280 Speaker 1: the long run, we have a moral and strategic imperative 1561 01:24:48,400 --> 01:24:51,640 Speaker 1: to secure our country with the most efficient, clean and 1562 01:24:51,720 --> 01:24:55,240 Speaker 1: sustainable energy source that is around. If you believe maximalist 1563 01:24:55,280 --> 01:24:57,720 Speaker 1: rhetoric about climate change, I've got an answer for you. 1564 01:24:58,439 --> 01:25:00,759 Speaker 1: And if you believe that America need to be stronger 1565 01:25:00,880 --> 01:25:03,880 Speaker 1: and more resilient, here's your answer too. It is time 1566 01:25:04,040 --> 01:25:07,280 Speaker 1: to build some nuclear power plants for the future of America, 1567 01:25:07,439 --> 01:25:10,080 Speaker 1: the future of the West, and the future of the planet. 1568 01:25:10,320 --> 01:25:12,839 Speaker 1: It's just amazing to me, Crystal that they left nuclear 1569 01:25:12,880 --> 01:25:15,559 Speaker 1: out and it's because of a very strong and if 1570 01:25:15,560 --> 01:25:18,400 Speaker 1: you want to hear my reaction to Sager's monologue, become 1571 01:25:18,400 --> 01:25:24,240 Speaker 1: a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot Com. Joining us 1572 01:25:24,240 --> 01:25:26,479 Speaker 1: now to give us an update on the situation with 1573 01:25:26,600 --> 01:25:31,479 Speaker 1: Ukraine and Russia from his perspective is Congressman Rokanna of California. Great, Caesar, 1574 01:25:31,560 --> 01:25:34,760 Speaker 1: here's azer great to be back on. I also want 1575 01:25:34,760 --> 01:25:36,120 Speaker 1: to say, we're going to get to this in a minute, 1576 01:25:36,120 --> 01:25:38,040 Speaker 1: but you've also just penned a new book. Let's go 1577 01:25:38,040 --> 01:25:40,400 Speaker 1: ahead and put the book jacket up on screen. There 1578 01:25:40,479 --> 01:25:44,639 Speaker 1: dignity in a digital age making tech work for all 1579 01:25:44,680 --> 01:25:47,040 Speaker 1: of us. So excited to talk about that as well. 1580 01:25:47,080 --> 01:25:51,120 Speaker 1: But Connors Kanna, if you could just lay out for us, 1581 01:25:51,280 --> 01:25:55,360 Speaker 1: what do you think the most important US interest in 1582 01:25:55,640 --> 01:25:59,519 Speaker 1: the Russia invasion of Ukraine are right now? And how 1583 01:25:59,520 --> 01:26:01,840 Speaker 1: do you think that President Biden has done thus far? 1584 01:26:03,640 --> 01:26:07,400 Speaker 1: The most important interest is to save human lives, stand 1585 01:26:07,479 --> 01:26:11,720 Speaker 1: up for human rights, and to avoid a world war. Obviously, 1586 01:26:11,720 --> 01:26:17,799 Speaker 1: Putin's aggression is totally unconscionable. He is hitting civilian targets 1587 01:26:17,800 --> 01:26:21,280 Speaker 1: inarguable of war crimes, and we need to stand with 1588 01:26:21,920 --> 01:26:25,439 Speaker 1: the Ukrainian people, but we also don't want a no 1589 01:26:25,680 --> 01:26:29,120 Speaker 1: fly zone, which is basically a shooting war with Russia. 1590 01:26:29,160 --> 01:26:31,360 Speaker 1: And we have to figure out how we put pressure 1591 01:26:31,400 --> 01:26:36,360 Speaker 1: on Putin ultimately, but continue the talks which President Zlynsky 1592 01:26:36,400 --> 01:26:38,920 Speaker 1: has called for, so that there can be some ceasefire 1593 01:26:39,240 --> 01:26:42,599 Speaker 1: and so that there aren't this catastrophic loss of human life. 1594 01:26:42,640 --> 01:26:44,840 Speaker 1: We have to continue to try for that. I think 1595 01:26:44,840 --> 01:26:48,320 Speaker 1: President Biden has actually been fairly restrained and not responding 1596 01:26:48,360 --> 01:26:51,800 Speaker 1: to Putin, ted for tad, not rushing to these things 1597 01:26:51,840 --> 01:26:53,760 Speaker 1: like the FLI zone. So so far, I think he's 1598 01:26:53,800 --> 01:26:57,360 Speaker 1: handled that well. So Congressman, what role are you and 1599 01:26:57,439 --> 01:26:59,599 Speaker 1: in Congress going to have to play in this conflict. 1600 01:26:59,680 --> 01:27:02,120 Speaker 1: Some of the things that we've seen in previous American conflicts, 1601 01:27:02,160 --> 01:27:04,480 Speaker 1: which you've been in the forefront of, is an abdication 1602 01:27:04,600 --> 01:27:08,200 Speaker 1: of responsibility by the legislative branch. Can you at least 1603 01:27:08,240 --> 01:27:10,559 Speaker 1: pledge here as long as many of your colleagues do 1604 01:27:10,640 --> 01:27:12,599 Speaker 1: that you will be taking an active role in order 1605 01:27:12,680 --> 01:27:15,519 Speaker 1: to make sure that the legislative branch's voice is heard 1606 01:27:15,760 --> 01:27:20,559 Speaker 1: if there is an escalation. Yes, absolutely, I support the 1607 01:27:20,600 --> 01:27:25,680 Speaker 1: administration and increasing weapons to Ukrainian people so they have 1608 01:27:25,720 --> 01:27:28,200 Speaker 1: a fighting chance to stand up for their freedom in 1609 01:27:28,240 --> 01:27:32,400 Speaker 1: the face of this assault. I support also increase in 1610 01:27:32,439 --> 01:27:35,639 Speaker 1: humanit here in ad but absolutely everything ought to be 1611 01:27:35,680 --> 01:27:40,479 Speaker 1: properly authorized through Congress. And if there were ever an 1612 01:27:40,960 --> 01:27:44,439 Speaker 1: escalation on something like a no fly zone, that would 1613 01:27:44,520 --> 01:27:49,559 Speaker 1: require confessional approval, and I don't support them. What does 1614 01:27:49,600 --> 01:27:53,000 Speaker 1: it look like? How do we have any hope of 1615 01:27:53,040 --> 01:27:56,080 Speaker 1: bringing this conflict to an end? Because I can see 1616 01:27:56,120 --> 01:27:59,280 Speaker 1: the ladder of escalation very clearly in what that looks like. 1617 01:27:59,800 --> 01:28:01,719 Speaker 1: It's it's hard for me to see what the off 1618 01:28:01,840 --> 01:28:05,280 Speaker 1: ramp potentially looks like. So just lay out for us 1619 01:28:05,280 --> 01:28:08,800 Speaker 1: how you're thinking about that. Well, first, I think this 1620 01:28:08,920 --> 01:28:11,639 Speaker 1: war has been far more costly to putin than he expected. 1621 01:28:11,720 --> 01:28:14,920 Speaker 1: I mean, the Ukrainians have put up a bigger resistance. 1622 01:28:15,000 --> 01:28:18,640 Speaker 1: They're fighting with great spirit. It's been much harder for 1623 01:28:18,720 --> 01:28:21,679 Speaker 1: him to take TeV. The convoy out there has been stuck. 1624 01:28:21,840 --> 01:28:25,920 Speaker 1: He's losing soldiers, have been more protests in Russia. So 1625 01:28:26,000 --> 01:28:30,160 Speaker 1: the hope is that the crushing sanctions, combined with the 1626 01:28:30,280 --> 01:28:34,400 Speaker 1: unity of NATO and the United States, will force Putin 1627 01:28:34,520 --> 01:28:38,280 Speaker 1: to the bargaining table. The question is wet, and the 1628 01:28:38,360 --> 01:28:42,760 Speaker 1: question is how many lives will be lost before then. 1629 01:28:43,320 --> 01:28:49,040 Speaker 1: But ultimately we need a ceasefire and we need a settlement. 1630 01:28:50,040 --> 01:28:54,000 Speaker 1: But Putin has to fear enough of consequence for him 1631 01:28:54,040 --> 01:28:55,400 Speaker 1: to do that. Now it would be more helpful of 1632 01:28:55,520 --> 01:28:59,000 Speaker 1: China and India also turned away from Russia. It doesn't 1633 01:28:59,040 --> 01:29:03,800 Speaker 1: help that they are not condemning Russia. Thomerson. So we've 1634 01:29:03,840 --> 01:29:06,439 Speaker 1: seen the sort of stick from the Biden administration with 1635 01:29:06,640 --> 01:29:08,880 Speaker 1: sanctions that are punishing, you know, not just to Putin 1636 01:29:08,920 --> 01:29:11,120 Speaker 1: in the oligarchs of but to the broader Russian population. 1637 01:29:11,520 --> 01:29:14,080 Speaker 1: What does a potential carrot look like though, because I 1638 01:29:14,120 --> 01:29:16,719 Speaker 1: don't think there's any sort of negotiated settlement without giving 1639 01:29:16,840 --> 01:29:22,240 Speaker 1: him something. Well, he has to first be willing to 1640 01:29:22,280 --> 01:29:26,600 Speaker 1: stop the violence to have a seasfire. And then Zolenski, 1641 01:29:26,840 --> 01:29:30,439 Speaker 1: as I understand it, has been willing to negotiate and 1642 01:29:31,320 --> 01:29:35,320 Speaker 1: willing to come to some compromise, and I think we 1643 01:29:35,360 --> 01:29:40,160 Speaker 1: can follow Zelenski's lead. But the reality here is this 1644 01:29:40,240 --> 01:29:43,679 Speaker 1: is not about previous policy, it's not about NATO policy. 1645 01:29:43,720 --> 01:29:46,360 Speaker 1: I mean, Putin has a paper that is worth reading. 1646 01:29:46,400 --> 01:29:49,280 Speaker 1: He believes is part of Greater Russia, and he's attacking 1647 01:29:49,720 --> 01:29:52,559 Speaker 1: to make it part of Russia. And what we really 1648 01:29:52,600 --> 01:29:56,519 Speaker 1: need to do is clearly say it's unjustified. Clearly say 1649 01:29:57,320 --> 01:29:59,040 Speaker 1: that he needs to stop, and that there needs to 1650 01:29:59,040 --> 01:30:01,800 Speaker 1: be a seasfire, and then I would follow a. Zelenski's 1651 01:30:01,880 --> 01:30:05,880 Speaker 1: lead in the negotiation. Yeah, Congressman, you're also here to 1652 01:30:05,880 --> 01:30:07,360 Speaker 1: talk about this book. I know it's a bit of 1653 01:30:07,360 --> 01:30:08,960 Speaker 1: a hard pivot here, but let's put it up there 1654 01:30:09,000 --> 01:30:12,200 Speaker 1: on the screen again just so people can understand what 1655 01:30:12,320 --> 01:30:14,519 Speaker 1: it is. Why did you decide to write this book 1656 01:30:14,560 --> 01:30:17,920 Speaker 1: at this time about dignity and the digital age and technology. 1657 01:30:17,960 --> 01:30:20,160 Speaker 1: I know you're the congressman from Silicon Valley itself, so 1658 01:30:20,160 --> 01:30:22,559 Speaker 1: you've been thinking a little bit about this. I have. 1659 01:30:22,920 --> 01:30:25,759 Speaker 1: I actually worked on some of these issues with Bristol. 1660 01:30:25,840 --> 01:30:28,120 Speaker 1: She may not remember well before she was famous on 1661 01:30:28,200 --> 01:30:32,720 Speaker 1: Breaking Point. The idea is that, you know, we have 1662 01:30:32,760 --> 01:30:36,040 Speaker 1: eleven trillion dollars of economic activity in my district, but 1663 01:30:36,200 --> 01:30:39,479 Speaker 1: so much of rural America, black and brown communities, they 1664 01:30:39,520 --> 01:30:43,160 Speaker 1: aren't participating in modern wealth generation. They're going to be 1665 01:30:43,200 --> 01:30:46,160 Speaker 1: twenty five million digital jobs. Nine of the ten richest 1666 01:30:46,200 --> 01:30:48,720 Speaker 1: companies or tech companies, A lot of the billionaires are 1667 01:30:48,720 --> 01:30:53,000 Speaker 1: tech billionaires. We've got to get digital economic opportnity into 1668 01:30:53,080 --> 01:30:56,680 Speaker 1: rural America, into the heartland. I like Intel going to 1669 01:30:56,800 --> 01:31:01,120 Speaker 1: Ohio and many of these jobs are manufacturing construction does 1670 01:31:01,200 --> 01:31:04,280 Speaker 1: and most of them don't require a college degree. And 1671 01:31:04,320 --> 01:31:08,200 Speaker 1: so it's about decentralizing economic opportunity in this country and 1672 01:31:08,240 --> 01:31:11,160 Speaker 1: not concentrating it in the coast. So this isn't a 1673 01:31:11,240 --> 01:31:15,600 Speaker 1: kind of like hashtag learned to Code kind of a message. 1674 01:31:16,000 --> 01:31:21,720 Speaker 1: So what could we do to help decentralize that? The economics, 1675 01:31:21,760 --> 01:31:24,160 Speaker 1: you know, of the fastest growing sectors in the country, 1676 01:31:24,240 --> 01:31:26,080 Speaker 1: And do you think that you know, there's a lot 1677 01:31:26,120 --> 01:31:28,240 Speaker 1: of talk about the pandemic and the way it's reshaping 1678 01:31:28,280 --> 01:31:29,960 Speaker 1: work life and the number of people who are sort 1679 01:31:29,960 --> 01:31:31,679 Speaker 1: of moving on in the big cities. Do you think 1680 01:31:31,720 --> 01:31:36,040 Speaker 1: that that helps to sort of further your agenda here? Absolutely? 1681 01:31:36,360 --> 01:31:38,600 Speaker 1: First of all, it's absolutely not learned to Code. The 1682 01:31:38,960 --> 01:31:41,240 Speaker 1: book starts with the story of Alex whos is making 1683 01:31:41,640 --> 01:31:46,839 Speaker 1: refrigerators and dishwashers and has some technology that he's grasped 1684 01:31:46,840 --> 01:31:49,639 Speaker 1: to make them smart, but the reality is actually silicon Elli. 1685 01:31:49,680 --> 01:31:52,080 Speaker 1: They talk about no code, low code, which means that 1686 01:31:52,120 --> 01:31:55,880 Speaker 1: these new technology jobs don't require much coding, it's just 1687 01:31:56,160 --> 01:32:01,680 Speaker 1: understanding basic technology to doom facturing, retail and these kind 1688 01:32:01,760 --> 01:32:06,439 Speaker 1: of occupations. And the COVID realignment gives a lot of 1689 01:32:06,479 --> 01:32:09,040 Speaker 1: opportunity because people realize, you know what, you don't have 1690 01:32:09,120 --> 01:32:11,519 Speaker 1: to move to Silicon Valley or Palo Alto. People can 1691 01:32:11,560 --> 01:32:15,240 Speaker 1: stay in Pennsylvania or West Virginia or Kentucky or Ohio 1692 01:32:15,280 --> 01:32:17,840 Speaker 1: and be close to their families and they can still 1693 01:32:17,920 --> 01:32:20,720 Speaker 1: work and they can be productive. And I think that 1694 01:32:20,840 --> 01:32:23,320 Speaker 1: would be very good for the country. Well, see that's 1695 01:32:23,320 --> 01:32:24,920 Speaker 1: an interesting part though, I mean, isn't kind of bad 1696 01:32:24,920 --> 01:32:29,120 Speaker 1: for your district? Though I have a lot of people 1697 01:32:29,320 --> 01:32:31,120 Speaker 1: who are living I mean, what is it ten percent 1698 01:32:31,200 --> 01:32:33,920 Speaker 1: or something of the city ended up leaving during COVID. 1699 01:32:33,960 --> 01:32:35,519 Speaker 1: I don't know how much has come back. My own 1700 01:32:35,560 --> 01:32:38,519 Speaker 1: sister left San Francisco as a result of the pandemic 1701 01:32:38,560 --> 01:32:40,960 Speaker 1: and wanted to get out and pay cheaper rent. Somehow 1702 01:32:40,960 --> 01:32:42,800 Speaker 1: she ended up moving to New York. But like, as 1703 01:32:42,880 --> 01:32:46,040 Speaker 1: personally as a defense, like, in terms of representing your district, 1704 01:32:46,120 --> 01:32:49,040 Speaker 1: isn't that not necessarily the best thing? Actually not? So 1705 01:32:49,479 --> 01:32:52,639 Speaker 1: Here's why I can represent it, because you know there 1706 01:32:52,640 --> 01:32:55,080 Speaker 1: are I represent San Jose, Silicon Valley, or you get 1707 01:32:55,120 --> 01:32:58,880 Speaker 1: a little south in San Francisco. We have ten jobs 1708 01:32:59,080 --> 01:33:02,599 Speaker 1: for every housing The national average is one point five 1709 01:33:02,720 --> 01:33:06,000 Speaker 1: jobs for every housing unit. So our big challenge is 1710 01:33:06,120 --> 01:33:09,240 Speaker 1: that our housing prices are through the roof and homelessness 1711 01:33:09,320 --> 01:33:12,320 Speaker 1: in part. And most people say, yeah, we can't sustain 1712 01:33:12,479 --> 01:33:14,680 Speaker 1: ten jobs for a housing did it. We need some 1713 01:33:14,720 --> 01:33:17,400 Speaker 1: of these jobs to decentralized. So what I'm advocating is 1714 01:33:17,439 --> 01:33:19,639 Speaker 1: actually what a lot of people in my district want, 1715 01:33:19,680 --> 01:33:23,960 Speaker 1: a better equilibrity. Well, Congressman, recommend everybody check out the book. 1716 01:33:23,960 --> 01:33:25,559 Speaker 1: As Hager said, I know you've been thinking about these 1717 01:33:25,560 --> 01:33:28,240 Speaker 1: things for a long time, because we've had conversations about 1718 01:33:28,240 --> 01:33:30,759 Speaker 1: it for quite a number of years. We always appreciate 1719 01:33:30,760 --> 01:33:32,919 Speaker 1: you taking the time to engage with us here. Thank you, Congresson. 1720 01:33:32,960 --> 01:33:35,200 Speaker 1: Thank you sir. Always love being on. Thank you for 1721 01:33:35,240 --> 01:33:38,439 Speaker 1: having me pleasure. All right, guys, we really appreciate you 1722 01:33:38,479 --> 01:33:40,840 Speaker 1: joining us. I mean, it's been it's not a crazy week. 1723 01:33:40,880 --> 01:33:44,639 Speaker 1: Were the live stream we Russia the first full week 1724 01:33:44,680 --> 01:33:46,880 Speaker 1: of an actual war. I just want to say thank 1725 01:33:46,880 --> 01:33:49,000 Speaker 1: you to all the premium members and the subscribers. I mean, 1726 01:33:49,160 --> 01:33:51,080 Speaker 1: the state of the Union live stream ended up getting 1727 01:33:51,080 --> 01:33:54,559 Speaker 1: about three hundred thousand views currently at this time. That's 1728 01:33:54,680 --> 01:33:56,719 Speaker 1: just astounding. At one point, I think we had thirty 1729 01:33:56,760 --> 01:34:00,800 Speaker 1: something thirty two thousand concurrent viewers. None of that is 1730 01:34:01,400 --> 01:34:04,280 Speaker 1: able to be done without your guys' support. It costs 1731 01:34:04,280 --> 01:34:06,080 Speaker 1: a lot of money to keep these lights on, to 1732 01:34:06,160 --> 01:34:09,519 Speaker 1: pay our crew, studio travel, all of that stuff in 1733 01:34:09,640 --> 01:34:11,640 Speaker 1: order to make sure that this all was able to 1734 01:34:11,640 --> 01:34:14,040 Speaker 1: be put on for a real live news event in 1735 01:34:14,080 --> 01:34:16,240 Speaker 1: the middle of a crisis. And that's what it means 1736 01:34:16,240 --> 01:34:18,960 Speaker 1: in order to run and support this operation. It cannot 1737 01:34:19,000 --> 01:34:21,479 Speaker 1: be done without all of your support. So thank you 1738 01:34:21,479 --> 01:34:24,200 Speaker 1: all so much for supporting us in this time of crisis, 1739 01:34:24,200 --> 01:34:26,280 Speaker 1: and I think that that's a real preview of what's 1740 01:34:26,320 --> 01:34:29,320 Speaker 1: to come. We're living through some crazy times and now 1741 01:34:29,520 --> 01:34:32,000 Speaker 1: because of your support, we have the nimble ability to 1742 01:34:32,080 --> 01:34:36,639 Speaker 1: respond in real time, to have it editing capacity. We've 1743 01:34:36,680 --> 01:34:40,639 Speaker 1: now have significant number of partnerships. Kyle Kolinski's channel will 1744 01:34:40,640 --> 01:34:43,880 Speaker 1: be posting clips on breaking points. We all have marshal 1745 01:34:43,920 --> 01:34:45,479 Speaker 1: costs off my REALIGNM and co host is going to 1746 01:34:45,520 --> 01:34:47,479 Speaker 1: be doing news interviews for us, which are going to 1747 01:34:47,479 --> 01:34:50,120 Speaker 1: be previewing on the channel. We've got David Sirota, We've 1748 01:34:50,120 --> 01:34:53,680 Speaker 1: got Matt Stoler, We've got if James Lee. I mean, 1749 01:34:53,720 --> 01:34:56,679 Speaker 1: we have so many people now creating high quality content 1750 01:34:56,760 --> 01:34:59,200 Speaker 1: other than us, and we are able to support them 1751 01:34:59,280 --> 01:35:01,559 Speaker 1: with our editing infrastructure, the support of our channel, the 1752 01:35:01,560 --> 01:35:03,600 Speaker 1: support of all of our users, people like you. So 1753 01:35:03,840 --> 01:35:05,479 Speaker 1: thank you all so much, and if you can help, 1754 01:35:05,600 --> 01:35:07,880 Speaker 1: we do it deeply. Apreci Yeah, we're appreciate it. We're 1755 01:35:07,920 --> 01:35:10,000 Speaker 1: thinking about all the time how we can just make 1756 01:35:10,040 --> 01:35:12,760 Speaker 1: sure that you're getting a product that takes, you know, 1757 01:35:12,880 --> 01:35:16,320 Speaker 1: a comprehensive look at the world that isn't dependent on 1758 01:35:16,640 --> 01:35:19,040 Speaker 1: these giant tech companies that are just talking to Congressman 1759 01:35:19,120 --> 01:35:22,479 Speaker 1: Conna about. And we are so grateful the way that 1760 01:35:22,520 --> 01:35:24,519 Speaker 1: you guys have shown up for us. Thank you for 1761 01:35:24,560 --> 01:35:28,880 Speaker 1: supporting us this week and every week, and enjoy your weekend, guys. 1762 01:35:29,080 --> 01:35:29,920 Speaker 1: We'll see back here next