WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Richard Clarida & Francois Trahan

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio, news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best Idea and it was just a wonderful day.

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<v Speaker 2>We could do like a three hour single best idea.

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<v Speaker 2>We just wonderful guests given the exceptional news for a

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<v Speaker 2>major shout out to our Tea Live service. It's on

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<v Speaker 2>the Bloomberg terminal and it's a team of five, six,

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<v Speaker 2>eight of our senior editors basically from Dublin through London,

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<v Speaker 2>down through Europe into the Middle East, moving all the

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<v Speaker 2>different dialogue and really with an advantage of translation as

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<v Speaker 2>well of what we're getting out of Iran. Just thank

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<v Speaker 2>you to them for driving all of our news flow

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<v Speaker 2>forward today. With Michael Barr and Monica Rix as well.

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<v Speaker 2>Richard Clareda came by the former vice chairman of the FED.

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<v Speaker 2>Great conversation on his Columbia University. I asked him about

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<v Speaker 2>all of the different FED officials and how unique Governor

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<v Speaker 2>Myron is here is Richard Clareda.

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<v Speaker 1>Models are tools, but they're backward looking, and in particular,

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<v Speaker 1>I think oftentimes the argument that Governor Myron has made

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<v Speaker 1>is he has a personal individual belief that the neutral

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<v Speaker 1>interest rate in the US is well below the current

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<v Speaker 1>level and well below where the committee believes. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>he could be right, but I don't think that is

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<v Speaker 1>the view on the committee, So I think he'll continue

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<v Speaker 1>to be a minority view on that.

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<v Speaker 2>Years and years of practice. There a delicate answer, nicely

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<v Speaker 2>said from Richard Clarita of his colleague and economic Stephen Myron,

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<v Speaker 2>a governor of the Federal Reserve System at this time,

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<v Speaker 2>Friend Sua Trehan with the Bank of Montreal BEIMO Capital Markets.

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<v Speaker 2>Friend Suatrehan on the moment at hand and risk.

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<v Speaker 3>People say, all right, we can't have non inflationary growth

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<v Speaker 3>because we don't have excess capacity. Why can't AI play

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<v Speaker 3>that role with productivity? And that sounds logical when you

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<v Speaker 3>think about it, when you dig into the data, you

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<v Speaker 3>realize that it's not feasible in twenty twenty six and so.

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<v Speaker 3>And the reason for this is that AI is really

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<v Speaker 3>for now a phenomenon of the very large companies. Small

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<v Speaker 3>business America has not really embraced it. And small business

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<v Speaker 3>America creates three quarters of jobs in the US. And so,

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<v Speaker 3>until you know this is adopted broadly, I don't think

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<v Speaker 3>we're going to see the employment phenomenon that a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of people are looking for.

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<v Speaker 2>Beautifully frames the risk of AI in this twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 2>six and the total mystery or where We'll be out

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<v Speaker 2>there somewhere Friends Hotan, BMO Capital Markets on our podcast

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<v Speaker 2>run Apple, on Spotify, particularly Good Morning to the Pacific RIM,

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<v Speaker 2>which we hear does well of Spotify and on YouTube podcasts.

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<v Speaker 2>A single best idea m HM