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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome back on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Thomas Mayola, and it's almost time. There's

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Speaker 1: so much going on this Saturday, including UFC two seventy

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Speaker 1: four in Phoenix, Arizona. So today here to help me

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Speaker 1: talk about it none other than one of the sharpest

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Speaker 1: fighting guys in town, Gamblu himself, Lou Finichiaro.

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Speaker 2: How are you doing today?

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Speaker 3: I'm doing great, Thomas.

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Speaker 4: I appreciate you having me on, and it's always a

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Speaker 4: pleasure to break down great fights, especially when they're in

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Speaker 4: my own bankyard exactly.

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Speaker 2: That's perfect.

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Speaker 1: We're used to them being out in my backyard here

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Speaker 1: in Vegas, but it's nice to see the fights wherever

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be.

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Speaker 2: And this is gonna be a fun card. Are you

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Speaker 2: excited for it?

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Speaker 4: I love every card, but there's some really great matchups

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Speaker 4: on this one, and you know, it's fourteen fifteen fights deep,

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Speaker 4: so that's always awesome.

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Speaker 1: Now, of course, we're gonna get to olivera versus gate

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Speaker 1: Ge in a minute here, but first let's talk about

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Speaker 1: the under card. Is there anything in the lower down

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Speaker 1: in the fight card that you're taking a look at

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Speaker 1: for some of these fights.

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Speaker 4: There's a handful of interesting ones, a couple that I'll highlight,

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Speaker 4: and it's just because let's understand, now, these fights are

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Speaker 4: going to be in Phoenix. Phoenix is basically northern Sonora, Mexico.

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Speaker 4: Even though it's the United States side, there's a huge

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Speaker 4: Mexican population here. That Mexican population is proud and they're traditionally,

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Speaker 4: i mean, generationally unbelievably fervent fight fans.

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Speaker 3: So you're getting.

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Speaker 4: These fights in the heart of Mexican fight country, and

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Speaker 4: you got a couple of Mexican fighters on the card, So.

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Speaker 3: I'll take us there.

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Speaker 4: Carnilosi in the ladies strawweight one fifteen little teeny ladies,

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Speaker 4: both five two Brazilian cardinal against Lupita Gadinez, who's the

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Speaker 4: Mexican fighter. Gadinaz has got great wrestling chops, she's really

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Speaker 4: really busy, she's got unending cardio. But she's in against

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Speaker 4: Degel a little bit more experienced than her usually, or

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Speaker 4: at least I should say. What I've been taught is

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Speaker 4: that kryptonite to b JJ is really high end wrestling.

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Speaker 4: I think Lupita has that.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 4: She's a favorite here in the you know, minus one

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Speaker 4: eighties or so, but the number has been coming.

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Speaker 3: Down a little bit. I'd be patient there. I think

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Speaker 3: she's interesting.

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Speaker 4: And then in the next fight, Jerny Newsom fights Fernie

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Speaker 4: Garcia fight. Fernie fights out of Fortis, that's Dallas, but

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Speaker 4: he's also a Mexican heritage fighter. These two individuals will

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Speaker 4: receive voracious fan support, or at least fan support from

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Speaker 4: the fans that are there that early in the fight.

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Speaker 4: Guard that's a bantam weight fight, and in that fight,

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Speaker 4: Garcia has got two inches on his opponent.

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Speaker 3: And even though he's.

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Speaker 4: A little bit of a decision fighter, he's making his debut.

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Speaker 4: I think he's live against Newsom and he's just a

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Speaker 4: slight favorite in that fight.

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Speaker 2: Thomas, that's right.

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Speaker 1: He's listed at minus one forty five now at our

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Speaker 1: friends at Circa and Lupita Gadinaz, she's minus one sixty seven.

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Speaker 1: You said that was minus one eighty a little earlier.

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Speaker 1: That number is dropping a little bit. Where should people

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Speaker 1: look if they want to try and take a price

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Speaker 1: on Gadinaz? What would you think the market? The time

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Speaker 1: to pounds in the market is.

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Speaker 4: Well right now the way it's going it was it

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Speaker 4: was minus two hundred early in the week, so I'd

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Speaker 4: be in no hurry to get in front of what

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Speaker 4: appears to be a popular underdog. I would continue to

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Speaker 4: hold off and wait, and you know, part of the

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Speaker 4: homework is watching that number and if you see it

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Speaker 4: percolate up a couple of pennies, that's maybe when you jump.

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Speaker 1: Are there any other fights on the undercard that you're

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Speaker 1: getting a little excited about.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Randy Brown and Chaos Williams. That'll be the main

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Speaker 4: fight on the undercard. Those are welterweights, so we're getting

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Speaker 4: into bigger boys there. Randy Brown, longer, taller, more well rounded.

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Speaker 4: Chaos Williams bad attitude, forward pressure, tremendous power, and a

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Speaker 4: lot of action. There should be really an excellent fight

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Speaker 4: where Williams wants to press and pound and the other

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Speaker 4: kid that I like in this fight Randy Brown. He

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Speaker 4: wants to move and groove, So fight, which way is

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Speaker 4: that gonna go? I think Brown has more ways to win,

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Speaker 4: and earlier in the week he was an underdog that

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Speaker 4: fights close to Pickham.

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Speaker 2: Now, Thomas, that's right.

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Speaker 1: That fight minus one oh five for Brown, the slightest

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Speaker 1: of dogs. Chaos Williams minus one fifteen. Now you mentioned

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Speaker 1: these are a couple of the bigger boys fighting in

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Speaker 1: this one. The over two and a half or this

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Speaker 1: fight to go the distance is plus one ten books

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Speaker 1: are definitely expecting for this fight to be decided before

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Speaker 1: we hit the end of round three. Do you think

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Speaker 1: that this fight could go the distance or with these

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Speaker 1: heavyweight heavier weighted fighters, is it more of a case

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Speaker 1: of maybe stay away from this market because there is

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Speaker 1: that knockout potential.

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Speaker 4: I think that really depends on how you see the fight.

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Speaker 4: And I think if you see the Williams has a

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Speaker 4: lot of fans, those fans are going to believe that

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Speaker 4: Williams will get to Brown and therefore probably lean under

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Speaker 4: the way I see this fight is that it's it

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Speaker 4: would be Brown that has more ways to take this

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Speaker 4: fight to decision, make Williams look, you know, maybe uncomfortable

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Speaker 4: or at least awkward, and get it to a decision.

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Speaker 4: And for that reason, then I think if you lean

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Speaker 4: to Brown, you lean towards an over or you want

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Speaker 4: to consider it brown via decison.

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Speaker 3: I'd have no argument with that. At a nice plus prize.

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Speaker 1: Now, lou as we move a little bit up the

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Speaker 1: card to the main card here a common theme you're saying.

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Speaker 1: First off, we've got a couple rematches here from fights

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Speaker 1: in December of twenty fourteen. Obviously it's been a very

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Speaker 1: long time since those fights, but still something's changed. Somethings

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Speaker 1: stay the same. Carla Asparza and Rose Nama Junas here

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Speaker 1: this fight. Asparza won the first spot to claim the

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Speaker 1: title way back at the start of the strawweight division

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Speaker 1: for women, but now she's a dollar ninety dog in

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Speaker 1: this fight to Nama Yunis, who has come up and

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Speaker 1: been able to claim two titles and is the current

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Speaker 1: title holder. Where do you see this fight gone?

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Speaker 4: Well, I saw it Rose opening one sixty or one

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Speaker 4: sixty five and if the money's come steadily on Rose,

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Speaker 4: and I tend to agree with that because I think

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Speaker 4: since eight years ago, when these two thought Rose was

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Speaker 4: in her second or first fight in the USC or professionally,

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Speaker 4: let me take that back, I think it was one

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Speaker 4: of her first UFC fights. I think at that point

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Speaker 4: in time she was just green as a cucumber, and

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Speaker 4: she's a much different fighter, more evolved, more dangerous, and

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Speaker 4: with many more tools as opposed to the asparsa side

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Speaker 4: that I don't think has gained any more diversity, rather

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Speaker 4: has gained maybe a little bit more mastery of her wrestling,

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Speaker 4: because she seems to be able to overwhelm women that

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Speaker 4: know she's got one way to win, and that's to

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Speaker 4: get in close, get on top, stay on top, and

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Speaker 4: use that wrestling.

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Speaker 3: Rose knows it will she be able to do anything

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Speaker 3: about it.

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Speaker 4: The difference here is that for Asparsa, she's stepping away

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Speaker 4: up in caliber of opponent, and Rose has seen this.

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Speaker 3: Caliber of opponent over the course of.

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Speaker 4: The last six fights, two with Yan Jayshik Twojang and

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Speaker 4: another couple too with Jessica andraj sprinkled in world class fighters.

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Speaker 3: So I think Rose is.

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Speaker 4: The rightful favorite here, and if anything, because it's five rounds,

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Speaker 4: maybe Rose inside the distance might be where I go

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Speaker 4: in a fight that I see similarly similarly to as

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Speaker 4: far as his title defense against Johanna, where it was

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Speaker 4: a one sided beat down from distance.

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Speaker 3: Com for details.

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Speaker 1: Now, you think that Rose is gonna win it, but

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Speaker 1: she's a minus two to twenty favorite in this fight.

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Speaker 1: When it comes to the fighting game, I feel like

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Speaker 1: there are some differences between that and other sporting events

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Speaker 1: like the NFL or a basketball game, when it comes

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Speaker 1: to how much juice you're willing to lay. How much

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Speaker 1: is too much juice in the fighting game? Is minus

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Speaker 1: two to twenty a price that you can look at

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Speaker 1: and say, I can convince myself to make a play here,

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Speaker 1: or are you going to go in a different direction

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Speaker 1: to try and bet this way?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's if I did.

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Speaker 4: I would use it in one of the rare, rare

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Speaker 4: parlays that I use, but I very rarely use a parlay. Rather,

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Speaker 4: I look for other ways to derive plus numbers, and

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Speaker 4: that would be Rose inside the distance or Rose via tkoko,

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Speaker 4: which I think is likely even fight does not go

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Speaker 4: the distance. I'm not sure where that's lying, because those

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Speaker 4: numbers are just kind of starting to percolate and come

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Speaker 4: out now. But to answer your question, everyone has to

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Speaker 4: determine what their range is. But when I lay a

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Speaker 4: dollar out, I want to get at least a dollar

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Speaker 4: in return. So I'm looking for value in underdogs, and

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Speaker 4: I'm looking to get a plus price in any position.

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Speaker 4: And with the advent of DraftKings and fan duel and

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Speaker 4: the Circa Westgate and the plethora of crops that are

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Speaker 4: now coming out in the UFC, that's easier and easier

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Speaker 4: to do.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 1: You talk about looking for plus money, looking for dogs

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Speaker 1: with value, Is there anyone on this card, aside from

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Speaker 1: maybe the main two fights here, that you think could

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Speaker 1: provide some of that value?

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Speaker 2: Anyone you're looking at.

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Speaker 4: Well, everything will be pending weigh ins, of course. And

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Speaker 4: really the best one that I thought was mister Brown

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Speaker 4: that we mentioned a little bit earlier. The other thing

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Speaker 4: I mean, if you want to look at Serroni and

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Speaker 4: loz On fight, Donald Serroni opened well higher than he

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Speaker 4: is now. He opens two forty, and now he's sitting

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Speaker 4: at one sixty or one seventy. So there's been a

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Speaker 4: tsunami wave of money coming in on Joe Low, which

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Speaker 4: is great, except I don't buy it. I don't get it.

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Speaker 4: I think that I think this could be a really

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Speaker 4: good matchup for Serroni. However, he hasn't fought at fifty five,

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Speaker 4: he hasn't fought in a year or so, and he

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Speaker 4: hasn't fought at fifty five for some time. So no

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Speaker 4: way to commit on that just yet until I see

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Speaker 4: him standing in their underwear on the scales.

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Speaker 1: And so you'll wait a little bit until after the

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Speaker 1: weigh in is to start betting on some of these fighters.

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Speaker 4: In almost every single case. Yes, Now, in the case

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Speaker 4: of the main event, Olivera and Gaichie, that is a

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Speaker 4: fight that was originally going to be in Brazil, and

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Speaker 4: when Olivera opened minus one fifty, I have a podcast

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Speaker 4: also called the Bout Business Podcast, So months ago when

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Speaker 4: this line opened, I released Olivera at minus one fifty,

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Speaker 4: believing that because of the Brazilian location of the fight,

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Speaker 4: there'd be a lot more money coming in on.

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Speaker 3: Charles as the fight got closer.

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Speaker 4: Well, what happened, Brazil wasn't ready to hold a UFC

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Speaker 4: event to the comfort of the UFC. Apparently that location

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Speaker 4: gets moved to Phoenix, and Phoenix is the backyard for

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Speaker 4: Gay Sheets, so there's you see that ola Ara price

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Speaker 4: one sixty five, one seventy. I don't think it's going

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Speaker 4: to get much higher than that, understanding now that the

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Speaker 4: dynamics of location have changed as they.

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Speaker 1: Have, Guys, real quick, remember when you're looking for free

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Speaker 1: picks and sports betting advice, bettingpros dot Com has you

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00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:37,160
Speaker 1: covered with tips from over one hundred and fifty experts

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Speaker 1: most accurate experts and vetted systems in play. Betting Pros

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00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:52,640
Speaker 1: monitors all of the major sports books, most accurate experts,

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00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:57,080
Speaker 1: and top systems to identify the best betting opportunities. So

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Speaker 1: download today in the Apple or Google Play store. And

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Speaker 1: so let's talk about that main fight on the card,

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Speaker 1: of course, a comain fight with the asparziantnam a Unis fight,

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Speaker 1: but justin Gaechee going up against Charles Olivera.

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Speaker 2: Olivera, like you said.

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Speaker 1: Minus one seventy right now from our friends at Circa Gaichee.

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Speaker 1: He's plus one fifty and the total for rounds right

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Speaker 1: now over one and a half rounds is juiced heavily

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Speaker 1: at circa to minus one eighty five. To have the

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Speaker 1: route and have about not go one and a half

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Speaker 1: is plus one sixty. Now do you still like Olivera

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Speaker 1: despite the change of venue or you may be looking

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Speaker 1: a little more at Gaichee.

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Speaker 4: Now in this particular case, nothing will get me off

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Speaker 4: of Olivier. I think he's the more diverse fighter. He's

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Speaker 4: about the same size, but he's got to reach advantage.

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Speaker 4: He has more ways to win, and quite honestly, Gaichie

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Speaker 4: can be reckless, and reckless is no way to attack

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Speaker 4: a world decoration Brazilian's US issue specialist who now has

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Speaker 4: also fashioned the other aspects of his mixed martial arts game.

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Speaker 3: Olivia is a killer and I equate him very very

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Speaker 3: close in par to Nrmaga Metov and watching interviews this week,

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Speaker 3: Gaichi absolutely does not, and I think it could be

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Speaker 3: a mistake for him, because I believe he's overlooking Olivera

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Speaker 3: to some extent. That said, Gaichie's clear in his pronouncement

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Speaker 3: of his plan in this fight, and that is he's

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Speaker 3: going to walk Olivera down and go out there and

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Speaker 3: try and completely bludgeon him, and we'll have to see

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Speaker 3: what kind of condition Olivera's in to force Gaichie to

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Speaker 3: work for five minutes in that first round, expend some

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Speaker 3: energy and then take him into the latter rounds where

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Speaker 3: I think the latter, the later this fight goes, the

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Speaker 3: more oliver Ea has a chance, the more oliver Era

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Speaker 3: has a chance to finish.

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Speaker 4: But that first five minutes is going to be a firefight.

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Speaker 4: A la gai chie ferguson, excuse me, a lah gai

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Speaker 4: chie chandler the last fight they had.

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Speaker 1: Now, if the first round does favor Gaichie just a

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Speaker 1: little bit, of course, Olavera, right now minus one seventy

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Speaker 1: you said you like to get that plus price. Do

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Speaker 1: you think there's the potential for the first round to

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Speaker 1: come out Gaichie has a bit of an upper hand,

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Speaker 1: the line shifts a little more in his favor, and

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Speaker 1: there might be an opportunity to end game on Olivera.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but you're playing a dangerous game because of that

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Speaker 4: over under one and a half, gai Chie's dry. What

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Speaker 4: happens to a dry guy when they fight a submission guy.

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Speaker 4: It's easier to grab a neck in an arm or

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Speaker 4: a shoulder, So you're playing a risky game that way.

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Speaker 4: I don't think I would go that way.

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Speaker 1: Gotcha, Now, how would you go for this fight? Are

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Speaker 1: you just laying the minus one seventy or are you

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Speaker 1: looking at something else in here?

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Speaker 3: I think there.

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Speaker 4: I think I would probably look at a straight bet

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Speaker 4: to Olivera. I'd look at Olivera perhaps tied to Lupe

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Speaker 4: Gaddas as I mentioned earlier in the podcast. Or I

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Speaker 4: would consider Olivera inside the distance. I don't think Gaychie

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Speaker 4: will be able to go five rounds with him.

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Speaker 1: All right, And looking at some of those numbers here,

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Speaker 1: you've got OLIVERA by decision at six to one. OLIVERA

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Speaker 1: by submission is plus one twenty. Does that sound maybe

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Speaker 1: like the way to go to get on that, to

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Speaker 1: get on that plus money price with something pretty realistic?

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Speaker 4: Well, a lot of times they price a via submission

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Speaker 4: or via kotko DQ. I don't want to play that game.

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Speaker 4: I want inside the distance. So that's probably going to

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Speaker 4: be closer to a pick them plus one hundred, But

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Speaker 4: that's where I would go as opposed to try to

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Speaker 4: get cute, because there's no question gay chee after three

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Speaker 4: four rounds of really high output can get a little

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Speaker 4: sloppy and tired, and that's when, guys. That's how Poier

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Speaker 4: finished him. He endured two and a half rounds of

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Speaker 4: test and then finished him late. I can see that

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Speaker 4: happening with Olivera and I wouldn't I wouldn't buy at

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Speaker 4: all on sub because he could easily end it with strikes.

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Speaker 2: That makes sense to me.

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Speaker 1: Now, one one other fight on this card that we

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Speaker 1: want to talk about here, Mauricio Shogunua versus Ovin Saint

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Speaker 1: pru Saint Prue minus two to twenty five in this

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Speaker 1: fourth fight, the former Tennessee Vall football player. We mentioned

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Speaker 1: a couple rematches here from twenty fourteen fights. This is

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Speaker 1: one of them. Saint Prux won that fight with a

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Speaker 1: thirty four second knockout that kind of vaulted him to

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Speaker 1: a more notorious level in UFC. Who what now, forty

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Speaker 1: plans to retire after one more fight? What are you

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Speaker 1: looking at in this bout?

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Speaker 4: I'm looking at a fight where my heart says hua,

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Speaker 4: and my head says this is gonna be another osp knockout.

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Speaker 3: You love who? But he is forty. I know he.

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Speaker 4: Thinks he can make this competitive. But OSP has recently

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Speaker 4: fought at heavyweight. This is one again. I'll watch the scales.

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Speaker 4: If OSP makes two five easy, which is the light

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Speaker 4: heavyweight limit, then I don't know how it's not a

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Speaker 4: good night for him.

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Speaker 3: This is a bad spot for who as I handicap it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it seems like it's going to be a tough one.

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Speaker 1: I mean, OSP just looks like one of those fighters

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Speaker 1: that is going to do a lot here. And you

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Speaker 1: know that Hua is starting to get over the hell.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that he is going to retire after

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Speaker 1: one more fight?

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Speaker 4: I don't know. I saw no indication of that in

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Speaker 4: the interviews. Rather, I think that the move down from

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Speaker 4: heavyweight could affect OSP late. And do you want to

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Speaker 4: bet your money on a forty year old to have

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Speaker 4: more cardio than a younger man. And it's a tenuous

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Speaker 4: situation this fight. To me, gun to the head, it's

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Speaker 4: probably OSP. You know, Ko Tko or inside the distance?

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Speaker 1: All right, Lou any other fights that you're looking at

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Speaker 1: on the card.

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Speaker 2: Here we've kind of hit the big ones.

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Speaker 3: But there, yeah, we.

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Speaker 4: Hit the big ones. Another favorite, Brandon roy Val. He's

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Speaker 4: in a very good opportunity. He's a big favorite. You

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Speaker 4: want to consider him with Gadnaz that that might be

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Speaker 4: a way to go as well. But he's a talented

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Speaker 4: fighter in a good position too.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Lou, Before I get you out of here, I

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Speaker 1: want to ask you if you were making one bet

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Speaker 1: to give out to our friends listening to us here,

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Speaker 1: what would you go with?

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Speaker 4: It would be Charles OLIVERA straight up in the main event,

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Speaker 4: lay the one seventy to win one, or rather bet

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Speaker 4: a one unit bet. If you're on a hundred dollars, better

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Speaker 4: bet one hundred and you end up winning, you know,

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Speaker 4: forty two dollars, forty three dollars, whatever it is, if

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Speaker 4: you want to. I always work on keeping my losses

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Speaker 4: at a minimum and try and maximize my profits.

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Speaker 2: Lout, thank you so much for joining us here today.

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Speaker 1: Of course your podcast about business podcast where can people

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Speaker 1: find you in all the awesome work you're doing.

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Speaker 3: Thank you so much.

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Speaker 4: So what will happen is tomorrow after WEIGHNS I will

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Speaker 4: tape and the podcast is a synopsis of my final

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Speaker 4: releases for this card, most of which you guys have

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Speaker 4: heard right here. So that final list will be on

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Speaker 4: a sixteen minute pod. It's available at any podcasts location,

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Speaker 4: or you can catch it at Blue at gamblue dot

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Speaker 4: com And just one more time, Thomas, thanks for having

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Speaker 4: me on.

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Speaker 1: I appreciate thank you so much for your time today, Lou.

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Speaker 1: I really appreciate you coming on and helping us out

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Speaker 1: here to break down the fight. I look forward to

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Speaker 1: having you back on again soon. It is going to

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Speaker 1: be a fun weekend. Ladies and gentlemen. Whatever you're betting on,

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00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 1: be at UFC two seventyfore. We've got the Kentucky Derby.

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00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 1: You can check out our breakdown for that out now.

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00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 1: I had an awesome conversation yesterday with Dan Silver of

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00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 1: the Racetrack Network. Check it all out on bettingcros dot

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00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 1: com on our YouTube channel. Don't forget to give us

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00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 1: that like, subscribe and share. Tell your friends if you

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00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,920
Speaker 1: like what we're doing over here. It is greatly appreciated.

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00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 1: And of course you can follow me on Twitter at

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00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 1: TV at work, you can follow Lou at gam Blue

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Speaker 1: g A M B l O U.

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Speaker 3: Lou.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much, guys, Best of luck this weekend,

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Speaker 1: have a good one and let's cash some tickets