1 00:00:01,720 --> 00:00:05,640 Speaker 1: All Zone Media. 2 00:00:06,760 --> 00:00:09,400 Speaker 2: Welcome to it could happen here, a podcast where the 3 00:00:09,440 --> 00:00:12,240 Speaker 2: economy is falling apart and do it exciting ways faster 4 00:00:12,360 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 2: than I can write about it. I am your host, 5 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 2: Mia Loong. Welcome to what has turned into a kind 6 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:25,480 Speaker 2: of emergency? Is the Economy Collapsing? Episode? This episode was 7 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 2: originally supposed to be about tariffs, but while I was 8 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 2: writing the tariff episode, a bunch of shit happens, like 9 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 2: we invaded or run and KOs By, which is the 10 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:39,520 Speaker 2: leading Korean stock market index, had its largest single drop 11 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:44,519 Speaker 2: in its entire history, which triggered its circuit breaker. Circuit 12 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 2: Breakers are a thing that stock markets have now where 13 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 2: if the stock market collapses, like if it loses points 14 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:53,600 Speaker 2: too fast in a certain period of time, all trading 15 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 2: will automatically stop for a bit, so it hits its 16 00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 2: circuit breaker. The Tie index also hits at circuit breaker. 17 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 2: And then in the wee hours of sort of Monday 18 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 2: morning American time, I start seeing a bunch of people 19 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 2: posting that Coachy hit the circuit breaker, and I'm very 20 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 2: confused because that happened on Wednesday, right, like this already happened. No, no, no, no, wrong, wrong, 21 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:23,119 Speaker 2: happened again. It's two circuit breakers in like four sessions. 22 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 2: So this has turned into an unbelievable crisis. Yeah, so 23 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 2: we're gonna get the tariff episode at some point, talking 24 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 2: about the Supreme Court tariff rulings and stuff like that 25 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:37,319 Speaker 2: that will happen. There's a lot of interesting stuff there. 26 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 2: But right now we need to answer the question is 27 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:47,040 Speaker 2: the economy about to collapse? And tendively it has been 28 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 2: held off at least for a little bit. Now. This 29 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 2: is being recorded early Monday afternoon on March ninth. By 30 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 2: the time this goes out on March tenth, who the 31 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 2: fuck knows what will have happened. But let's talk about 32 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 2: what happened in the run up to all of this, 33 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 2: because it's very important. So in the lead up to 34 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:12,799 Speaker 2: the open of the American markets, we had a massive 35 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 2: spike in oil futures, like one of the largest single 36 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 2: day spikes in oil futures ever. It looks like it's 37 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 2: going to be the apocalypse for the markets. And the 38 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 2: reason it looks like this is because and this is 39 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 2: something that's genuinely astounding. So one fifth of the world's 40 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:35,080 Speaker 2: oil moves through the strait of farmos we're going to 41 00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 2: talk about this in more detail later. And obviously there 42 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 2: is now a war, which means that you can't move 43 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 2: oil through it, and people suddenly realized that, oh my god, 44 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 2: this is going to raise oil prices. Now. When I 45 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:52,080 Speaker 2: was originally writing this episode in the housey in days 46 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 2: of Friday of last week, part of this episode was 47 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 2: about why oil prices were not spiking because they didn't 48 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:02,119 Speaker 2: spike and be upon the start of the war, right. 49 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 2: And I was very confused about this because the explanation 50 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:07,680 Speaker 2: at the time was that people were like, Oh, I'll 51 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:10,840 Speaker 2: be fine. The US Navy can escort oil tankers through 52 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 2: the straight ocrewer moves. No, they can't, like the narrowest 53 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,359 Speaker 2: part of it's twenty three miles wide. Like what are 54 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 2: we doing here? 55 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:17,240 Speaker 1: What? 56 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 2: Wait, Like forget drones. You can hit these oil tankers 57 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:22,680 Speaker 2: with like a fucking trebuchet. What are we doing here? 58 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 2: What was the administration telling to oil companies? Right? And 59 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 2: then a few days later everyone collectively realized, oh my god, 60 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 2: we can't move oil, and yeah, no, shit, you can't 61 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 2: move oil. Jesus Christ, like this is unbelievable stuff from 62 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 2: the people who are in the oil markets, from the 63 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 2: oil executives, from the golf monarchies, from all of the 64 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 2: people planning this, Why would you think this wouldn't happen? 65 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 2: And we're gonna get into that actually in a little bit, 66 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 2: because there is apparently a reason why they thought this 67 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 2: was going to happen, which is some combination of just 68 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 2: pure lies and a full belief and some of the 69 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 2: worst strategic planning I've ever seen in my entire life. 70 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 2: But you know, the ability to close the straight upward 71 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 2: news is the reason why even if you are like 72 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 2: President Donald Trump, the kind of person who doesn't give 73 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 2: a shit if you know your army burns a running 74 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:20,840 Speaker 2: and children to death, right, even if you don't care 75 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:25,919 Speaker 2: that you fucking bombed a fucking school, you don't fight 76 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:29,599 Speaker 2: this war because it fucks with the money. Now, in 77 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 2: anticipation of what looked like it was going to be 78 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 2: just a market pounding, Trump gave a phone interview with 79 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 2: CBS's senior White House correspondent Weija Jang, who posted this 80 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 2: on Twitter. This is her reporting of his statements. This 81 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 2: is from Donald Trump quote. I think the war is 82 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 2: very complete pretty much. They have no navy, no communication, 83 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 2: they've got no Air Force. He added that the US 84 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 2: is quote very far ahead of his initial three to 85 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 2: four timeframe. You know, he also said that ships are 86 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 2: moving through it now, but he's also quote thinking about 87 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 2: taking it over, which what is officially conquering the strait 88 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:18,599 Speaker 2: up a moves instead of merely like protecting it with 89 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 2: the American fleet assets. This is completely unhinged. And that 90 00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 2: he also said, quote they've shot everything they have to shoot, 91 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:28,479 Speaker 2: and they better not try anything cute or it's going 92 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 2: to be the end of that country now. Okay, So 93 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 2: the part of this right that went to the markets 94 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:39,719 Speaker 2: is that he thinks the war is over now. The 95 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:41,840 Speaker 2: part of it where he says if Iraan fights back 96 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:44,720 Speaker 2: in any way, quote, it's going to be the end 97 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 2: of that country apparently did not hit the markets. The 98 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 2: people running the markets are really really dumb. They think 99 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 2: and act like herd animals. This is, I guess slightly 100 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 2: an insult to herd animals because herd animals react that 101 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:57,840 Speaker 2: way for a reason. These people are human beings. They 102 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:00,080 Speaker 2: have the capacity for logic and reason. They have the 103 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:01,919 Speaker 2: same capacity for logic and reason that we do, and 104 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:05,159 Speaker 2: they still act like this. But this has calmed the 105 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 2: markets down, and it's sent oil prices back down again. 106 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 2: We're going to get into why that's kind of nonsense 107 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:16,479 Speaker 2: in a little bit, but it's also worth noting in 108 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:18,400 Speaker 2: terms of Trump saying the war is nearly over, that 109 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 2: every single other quote Trump has said about this war 110 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 2: has been He's in this for the long haul. He's 111 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:28,839 Speaker 2: thinking about troops on the ground, he is not going 112 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:30,679 Speaker 2: to get bored with it. He doesn't care the gas 113 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:34,040 Speaker 2: prices are going up. Someone asked his press secretary about 114 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:36,039 Speaker 2: whether he's ruled out the draft, and she said no, 115 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 2: he hadn't, which is I mean, like they're not going 116 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:41,280 Speaker 2: to do a draft, But like, that's ridiculous, why would 117 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:45,279 Speaker 2: you say that. It's also worth noting that, so he 118 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 2: has a two hundred and fifty year anniversary commission thing 119 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:52,040 Speaker 2: that he set up that he's very very excited about. 120 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 2: That's like it's America's two hundred and fifty year blah 121 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 2: blah blah blah blah. And that commissions like one of 122 00:06:56,760 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 2: their big people was ringing the opening bella shake this morning. 123 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 2: So you know, I suspect that there's a lot of 124 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 2: sort of motivated reasoning here going on with Trump saying, oh, 125 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:09,400 Speaker 2: that's fine, It's gonna be fine. The war is nearly over. 126 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 2: Do do do do do? Okay? So, I quite frankly 127 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 2: do not believe the President when he says that the 128 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 2: war is nearly over. I mean, I guess maybe there's 129 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 2: a scenario where everything we're about to talk about causes 130 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 2: a crisis that is large enough to, you know, actually 131 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 2: set off Trump pulling out of the war under pressure 132 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 2: from his allies in the region, which is to say, 133 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 2: the air of monarchies. I don't know to what extent 134 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 2: that's actually going to happen, but let's talk about what 135 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 2: the crisis here is. So the US's war against Iran 136 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 2: has triggered what could be the start of a full 137 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 2: on energy crisis. The energy crisis has been postponed for 138 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 2: one day, I guess as of again time of recording, Monday, 139 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 2: March ninth. But this could be the start of a 140 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 2: fall on energy crisis. And it's not just me saying this. 141 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 2: Here is the subtitle of the Wall Street Journal's big 142 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 2: piece on this quote. Traffic through the Strade of four 143 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,960 Speaker 2: mus has ground to a virtual halt, unleashing the most 144 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 2: severe energy crisis since the nineteen seventies. And threatening the 145 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 2: global economy. So that's not good. Now. I began this 146 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:28,680 Speaker 2: episode talking about a collapse on South Korean and high markets, 147 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 2: and I also mention by the way that like when 148 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:33,839 Speaker 2: that collapse happened, all the other Asian markets kind of 149 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 2: ate shit. The Chinese markets were sort of more stable 150 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 2: for reasons we'll get you in a second, but like Japan, 151 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:41,440 Speaker 2: like the nik was down like four percent, like all 152 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:43,679 Speaker 2: of the other Asian markets kind of ate shit, right, 153 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 2: Tawinese market. And the reason for that is well, again, 154 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 2: as I said above, one fifth of the world's oil 155 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 2: supply crude oil is shipped through the trade of farmuz 156 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:58,680 Speaker 2: and this is an issue for a country like South Korea, 157 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 2: which imports almost all of its oil, you know, and 158 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 2: whose economy, like manufacturing economy in particular, is very, very 159 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 2: heavily dependent on oil. This is true of a lot 160 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 2: of other countries in that region, and South Korea and 161 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:13,720 Speaker 2: Thailand and Taiwan and Japan are not countries like China, 162 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:16,199 Speaker 2: which have much of oil stockpiles and have the ability 163 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 2: to get oiled through other ways. Now, I want to 164 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:22,079 Speaker 2: take a second to actually explain what the strait of 165 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 2: Carmus is. So the Strait of Ramus is a straight 166 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 2: it's like there's a little bit of water, but it's 167 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 2: close to land. I talked to said earlier. At the 168 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 2: narrowest part of it is twenty three miles, so it's 169 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 2: very narrow, and it is a passage between the Persian 170 00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:38,840 Speaker 2: Gulf and effectively the Indian Ocean, right and what you're 171 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 2: out into the Indian Ocean, you can get to the 172 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 2: rest of the world that is, you know, east of that, 173 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 2: which is all of Asia, most of the rest of 174 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 2: the world that's not west of view right now, she's 175 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:55,960 Speaker 2: bordering the Persian Gulf. Who are in the area who 176 00:09:56,040 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 2: need to ship their oil out through here include Iran, Iraq, 177 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 2: Bahrain Cutter, the UAE in Saudi Arabia. Those are a 178 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 2: bunch of oil producing countries. You know. They are now 179 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:10,320 Speaker 2: also countries that are embroiled in this war because they 180 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 2: are part of the American Alliance. And you can ask 181 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 2: the very reasonable question, Okay, so if you're part of 182 00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:19,840 Speaker 2: the American Alliance, why the fuck would you be like, okay, 183 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,320 Speaker 2: with the United States launching this attack on Iran. On 184 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 2: a more vulgar level, you can ask the question, how 185 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:27,840 Speaker 2: the fuck was this allowed to happen. This is the money, 186 00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 2: This is the global economy that you are fucking with 187 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 2: right now. One of the things that the Wall Street 188 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 2: Journal talks about is that officials in the US and 189 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 2: Israel told the Gulf States that there wouldn't be retaliation 190 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 2: by Iran, right, that Iran wouldn't target oil facilities, they 191 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:50,400 Speaker 2: would just target American military bases. They had a whole 192 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 2: thing about how oh were in the war with Israel. 193 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:55,200 Speaker 2: They did only target American military basis. They didn't like 194 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 2: bomb any oil infrastructure. They were sending mister Bean memes 195 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 2: in their group chats about how weak the Iranian retaliation 196 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:06,960 Speaker 2: was going to be. So this is not just a 197 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 2: situation of pure, you know, motivated reasoning. We were lying 198 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 2: to them, etc. Et cetera. Like the Americans appeared to 199 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 2: have actually believed some of this, that Iran's retaliation was 200 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:20,959 Speaker 2: going to be weak. I've seen reports that they thought 201 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:22,880 Speaker 2: that Aram was out of drones. I don't know why 202 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:26,280 Speaker 2: you would think this baffling. Their drones are extremely cheap 203 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:29,199 Speaker 2: to produce, like they've used them, but why would you 204 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:32,679 Speaker 2: think they didn't have more? And I just want to 205 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 2: point out, right, so their point of reference here was 206 00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:37,880 Speaker 2: oh Iran showed restraint in the war with Israel. You know, 207 00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:40,080 Speaker 2: this is a twelve day conflict where Israel and Iran 208 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 2: sort of fired missiles at each other and stuff after 209 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:47,440 Speaker 2: Israel assassinated a bunch of people for doing nuclear stuff. 210 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:51,240 Speaker 2: But okay, let's look at this for a second. My 211 00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:55,439 Speaker 2: brother in Christ, you killed the fucking Ayatola. This is 212 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:59,199 Speaker 2: an existential war for survival of the regime. Of course, 213 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 2: they were going to forget your oil facilities. Are you 214 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:05,320 Speaker 2: fucking kidding me? Your goal here was regime change. You 215 00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 2: literally assassinated their fucking head of state. You literally killed him. 216 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 2: What the fuck did you think was going to happen? 217 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:15,319 Speaker 2: Oh my god. 218 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:19,680 Speaker 3: These people are so fucking dumb and like, you know, 219 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:23,080 Speaker 3: and it's obviously not clear exactly like who knew what 220 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 3: about this plan? But again, like it seems like the 221 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:28,080 Speaker 3: plan was put into place because they had the opportunity 222 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:31,560 Speaker 3: to to kill a tool a committee And like, okay, 223 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:36,680 Speaker 3: if that's true, and presumably the goal states would know that, 224 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 3: why the fuck would they not expect retaliation? 225 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 2: I expected this. I'm a podcaster. I mean, I know, 226 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 2: I'm very smart, but like these people are these people 227 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:47,880 Speaker 2: and their advisors are running fucking like some of the 228 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:51,240 Speaker 2: most important governments in the entire world. I don't know, monarchy, 229 00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:54,920 Speaker 2: bad system of governments electing Donald Trump also apparently bad 230 00:12:54,960 --> 00:13:00,320 Speaker 2: system of government. You're getting just oh my god, holy fuck. 231 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 2: These people are stupid. Oh my god. They really truly, 232 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 2: they really truly believed that Iran was not going to 233 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:10,280 Speaker 2: pick up the weapon that it has always had, that 234 00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 2: has always been the thing. For what reason why you 235 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 2: don't fight this fucking war even if you don't care 236 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 2: about Iranian lives, that you're willing to spend American lives? Right? 237 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 2: They really thought they wouldn't do it. I just, I 238 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:26,240 Speaker 2: just I can't get over this. I just oh my god. 239 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:30,560 Speaker 2: Oh I don't know. I don't know. 240 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 4: Okay, we're gonna go to ads. I'm mad as hell. 241 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:41,960 Speaker 4: I'm not gonna take it anymore. Here's some ads. 242 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 5: Okay, calm me down a little bit. Let's get back 243 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,640 Speaker 5: to the actual oil of it all. So let's talk 244 00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 5: about the quality of the oil here now. Sharp eared 245 00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 5: listeners may remember that when I talked about Venezuelan oil 246 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 5: Battery nor Executive Disorder episode about the previous war, A 247 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 5: couple of months ago, a sentence so unhinged. I had 248 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 5: to go back check the date to make sure that 249 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:12,640 Speaker 5: I wasn't hallucinating. But no, it was January third, twenty 250 00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 5: twenty six, when we had our last war with a 251 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 5: major oil producer where read in some way incapacitated or 252 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 5: killed the head of state. By the way, we're still 253 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 5: just like holding Maduro hostage. 254 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:24,680 Speaker 2: This is just still a thing that we're doing right now. 255 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 2: Incredible stuff, incredible like normal government shit, bad things happening. 256 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 2: But in that episode, which would have been the executive 257 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:34,880 Speaker 2: disorder that came out on Friday of the January ninth, 258 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 2: I talked about how Venezuelan crude oil is not very good, right, 259 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 2: It's extremely sour, kind of sucks. The cumbo composition is bad. 260 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 2: The oil in the golf is not like that. This 261 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 2: is good oil. This is one fifth of the world's 262 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 2: crude oil supply, right, And also it is now because 263 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 2: of cutters from that like liquified natural gas production. This 264 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 2: is now also a shutdown of a significant portion of 265 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 2: the world's liquified natural which is again extremely important to 266 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 2: the economy. And also you know, one of the biggest 267 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 2: sort of climate hoaxes in all of this, right, and 268 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 2: I'm saying climate hoaxes here. There's been a whole push 269 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 2: to be like, oh, we should transition to natural gas 270 00:15:11,800 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 2: because it's cleaner than oil, and like kind of a 271 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 2: little bit in the sense that like dunking your head 272 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 2: into a swamp is probably cleaner than dunking your head 273 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 2: directly into like a shitful toilet. And also it's only 274 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 2: cleaner assuming that no methane escapes through the production process. 275 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 2: But the thing is, methane fucking escapes during the production 276 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 2: process of natural gas all the fucking time, and methane 277 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 2: is like to get a sense, So we're talking about 278 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 2: greenhouse greenhouse gases here, right, and obviously we're familiar with 279 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 2: CO two is like the major pollutant that we that 280 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 2: we produce. Methane is a greenhouse gas that is so 281 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 2: fucked that it is better to light it on fire 282 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 2: and have it burn and have it admit that CO 283 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,280 Speaker 2: two into the air. That is better for the environment 284 00:15:57,320 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 2: than letting fucking methane into it. It is that fucked 285 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 2: of a greenouse gas, right, And you know a lot 286 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 2: of this stuff escapes and and this this is the 287 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 2: point that I've been, you know, trying to find a 288 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 2: thing to put in this episode. Right, one of the 289 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 2: big things here is why are we still using oil 290 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 2: to this extent? And you know, it has to do 291 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 2: with sort of, I mean just just the the the 292 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 2: utter cowardice and evil and short sighted profit motive chasing 293 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:24,960 Speaker 2: of the entire world ruling class. It has to do 294 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 2: with specific efforts by the oil lobby in order to 295 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 2: make sure that politics would happen like this. You know, 296 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 2: we can talk about like the role of Pennsylvania and 297 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,920 Speaker 2: like fracking as like an electoral thing. We can talk 298 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 2: about sort of the kind of Andrea's molm fossil capital 299 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 2: thesis about the place that you want to produce things 300 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,680 Speaker 2: being a place that both has stable energy and also 301 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 2: a sort of I don't know, I guess the capitalists 302 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 2: would call it disciplined workforce, but like a workforce that's 303 00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 2: not like organized, and that's not militant, so you can 304 00:16:57,120 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 2: exploit them. And the places where those things are true, 305 00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 2: for example, like this century largely has been China, where 306 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 2: you know, if you try to do independent union organizing, 307 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 2: they will arrest you. Sometimes you will get disappeared. And 308 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:11,920 Speaker 2: that also coincides with you know, they have an energy grid, 309 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:15,879 Speaker 2: and the energy grid is extremely pollution intensive. It still is, 310 00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:18,440 Speaker 2: even as you know, trying to sort of renewable energy 311 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 2: push has been happening, is still extremely carbon intensive. So okay, obviously, 312 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 2: like we're in this nightmare because a whole bunch of 313 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 2: people who really, really, really really desperately want us to 314 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 2: burn the entire world alive so they can keep making money. 315 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:37,399 Speaker 2: But we're turning to the original thing before I got 316 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 2: kissed off about people saying that natural gas is cleaner 317 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 2: than oil. It's like, just fucking use literally any other 318 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:48,679 Speaker 2: way to generate energy that's not fucking oil or natural 319 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:51,440 Speaker 2: gas or coal or I guess nuclear too. But like I, 320 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:54,399 Speaker 2: we have other ways of generating power. We could do this. 321 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:57,399 Speaker 2: But because we haven't done this, this massive decrease in 322 00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 2: oil supply because again nothing's fucking going through the gull. 323 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 2: There's like a couple of ships have gone through. This 324 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 2: is causing a crisis in the global economy. I'm going 325 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:07,240 Speaker 2: to quote the Wall Street Journal. If the Strait is 326 00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:09,880 Speaker 2: still closed this Friday, output in the region could follow 327 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 2: by more than four million barrels. Kind of analystical Quoting 328 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 2: earlier estimates, the decline could reach about nine million by 329 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,920 Speaker 2: the end of March, representing almost a tenth of global demands. 330 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:25,239 Speaker 2: Now it's worth noting here, right that you know, you 331 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 2: look at a tenth of global demand and you go, oh, okay, 332 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 2: so it's like a ten percent reduction, but it's actually 333 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 2: way worse than that, because again, people have this tendency 334 00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 2: to look at oil as just liquid money that moves 335 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 2: freely around the world. But that reduction in supply is 336 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:45,000 Speaker 2: not evenly distributed across the world. Right there are countries 337 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 2: who have extraordinary needs of it who get their oil 338 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,399 Speaker 2: from the Middle East. This is the places like for example, 339 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:53,000 Speaker 2: Korea from Thailand, b and mar We're gonna get to 340 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 2: you in a little bit, are places who are relying 341 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:57,880 Speaker 2: on this oil. And you know, for South Korea, it's 342 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 2: like seventy percent of their oil comes from this region. Right, 343 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 2: So that ten percent of global demand is not spread 344 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:07,200 Speaker 2: eatingly across the world is intensified into acute crises and 345 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 2: very very specific economies. And this is a compounding crisis because, 346 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 2: as the Wall Street Journal points out, like it's not 347 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 2: just that the Strait is closed for the first time, ever, Right, 348 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 2: this rait has never been closed. Like there was a 349 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 2: point where the US was like escorting things through a 350 00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 2: dream the arad of rock War, but like, it's never 351 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:30,000 Speaker 2: just been closed before. It's not just that, like you know, 352 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 2: oil and natural gas and fertilizer isn't coming out of 353 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:34,440 Speaker 2: there either, which is a real fucking problem that we'll 354 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:37,479 Speaker 2: talk about in a second. This is not just an 355 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 2: immediate crisis of we can't move the oil that we 356 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:42,959 Speaker 2: have out there is a secondary crisis, which is that 357 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 2: where the fuck do you put the oil? Right? If 358 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:48,280 Speaker 2: you get one thing out of listening to me talk 359 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 2: about oil, it's that again, it's not just liquid money, 360 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:55,480 Speaker 2: it's a material substance. And the actual substance of oil 361 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 2: and what it is and how it's produced has really 362 00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:01,160 Speaker 2: wide reaching political effects, right, because when you take ausself 363 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,919 Speaker 2: out of the ground, the system is designed so that 364 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,359 Speaker 2: it is moved extremely quickly. Now, there are countries like 365 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:10,920 Speaker 2: a rock that you could in theory still produce oil, right, 366 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:12,959 Speaker 2: but there aren't enough containers to store it, so they 367 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:14,920 Speaker 2: have to shop production down. Now you could be like, okay, well, 368 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 2: but why don't they just ship it out through the 369 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 2: Mediterranean and the answers that the pipelines and the shipping 370 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:22,679 Speaker 2: equipment there just don't have the throughput. Oil distribution is 371 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 2: very very flexible, and this is what makes disrupting it 372 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,879 Speaker 2: harder than something like coal used to be. But it 373 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 2: is designed to a point to be sort of nodal 374 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:36,679 Speaker 2: and flexible and able to sort of deal with supply 375 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:41,480 Speaker 2: reduction crises. Right, It's not designed to deal with this, 376 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 2: which is a full on energy crisis level, like, oh 377 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 2: by god, we can't get oil out through this radio removes. 378 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:50,919 Speaker 2: This is a scale of issue that can't simply be 379 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 2: solved by just moving the supply around and distributing it differently. 380 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:56,679 Speaker 2: That this is not a solution to this, and so 381 00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 2: these are having these interlocking effects right because also again 382 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 2: these things are designed to be going constantly, and it's 383 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:05,159 Speaker 2: not just a thing where you can just turn it 384 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 2: off and turn it back on again. It doesn't work 385 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 2: like that. These are actual, very very complicated, had to 386 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:12,000 Speaker 2: go processes. If you turn these things off, this is 387 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:15,199 Speaker 2: again very important. If you turn these wells off, some 388 00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:17,640 Speaker 2: of them will never turn back on again. So we're 389 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 2: talking about permanent damage to the supply, right, even if tomorrow, Right, 390 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 2: like the war is suddenly over and everything quote unquote 391 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 2: goes back to normal. We're talking about still like permanent 392 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:31,480 Speaker 2: damage to the supply. And this is where again you 393 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 2: can be like, well, okay, like why don't we just 394 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,760 Speaker 2: transition from oil? And again you can also ask like 395 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:38,080 Speaker 2: why should we give a shit about this? There's a 396 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 2: few reasons when I say this is a compounding crisis. 397 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,199 Speaker 2: The Water Journal talked about this a little bit, but 398 00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 2: in every article you read about this, you will see 399 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,919 Speaker 2: people making the argument that, oh, it's fine, Like the 400 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,040 Speaker 2: US is more insulated than it was from oil prices 401 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 2: in the seventies when it just like caused a major 402 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:08,359 Speaker 2: global crisis. And that's kind of true to a certain extent, right, 403 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,639 Speaker 2: the US is an oil producer, but also again, oil 404 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,159 Speaker 2: is not just something that's used for cars, right, and 405 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 2: our domestic economy doesn't just rely on oil, Like you 406 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 2: can't just you know, you can you make plastics out 407 00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 2: of oil, right, but even that, you don't just make 408 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 2: things whole sale out of oil. Like everything you consume 409 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:31,199 Speaker 2: has other things in it, and it relies on products like, 410 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,840 Speaker 2: for example, a luminum and you know, things like copper 411 00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,320 Speaker 2: and everything from basic commodities to sort of like refined 412 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:44,280 Speaker 2: goods that rely on there being oil. Right, Like again 413 00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 2: we're talking about South Korea's economy. South Korea produces. There's 414 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,160 Speaker 2: a whole bunch of microtrip production stuff that goes on there. 415 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:53,239 Speaker 2: You know, there's like Samsung, right, major foam manufacturer, So 416 00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,200 Speaker 2: there's all of this very very high tech stuff too. 417 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:56,800 Speaker 2: On the sort of on the bottom end we're talking 418 00:22:56,800 --> 00:23:00,360 Speaker 2: about like you can't refine the luminum anymore, know right, 419 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,159 Speaker 2: not that you can't like like places are shutting down 420 00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 2: their cassidy to do it because they can't get oil 421 00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:07,720 Speaker 2: or they can't afford this oil. To the extent that 422 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,199 Speaker 2: we're seeing something called forcemith Zura and being deployed by 423 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,639 Speaker 2: a whole bunch of companies across the world in different 424 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,160 Speaker 2: sectors and forced majoram is. This is this legal concept 425 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,200 Speaker 2: you can apply that it's like an act of god, 426 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:19,480 Speaker 2: where for example, like I don't know, if there's like 427 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,960 Speaker 2: a once in a century earthquake and it like obliterates 428 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,360 Speaker 2: your factory, you're not legally liable to pay stuff out 429 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 2: to people because it's an act of God, like you, 430 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,359 Speaker 2: you can't be legally held liable for it. And people 431 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,840 Speaker 2: are doing this for their aluminum production to say like, yeah, sorry, 432 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 2: we can't meet our contracts, we can't meet our quotas 433 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,880 Speaker 2: that you bought from us, Like not our fault, nothing 434 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,879 Speaker 2: we can do about it. It's happening with oil producers. 435 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 2: Because it's also worth noting that it's not just that 436 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 2: the strait is closed. Iran is also hitting oil facilities. 437 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:53,280 Speaker 2: Israel is also hitting oil facilities in Iran. They hit 438 00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:57,120 Speaker 2: one in Tehrun, like a massive one in Tehran that's 439 00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:00,360 Speaker 2: releasing all of these fucking toxic chemicals into the error, 440 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:06,480 Speaker 2: and that has set off a massive ecological crisis because 441 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,560 Speaker 2: all of these people are Enormous numbers of people in 442 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 2: Iran are going to die because of this, not just 443 00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:13,520 Speaker 2: because of the bombings, but because it turns out when 444 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,640 Speaker 2: you fucking blow up an oil facility releases a bunch 445 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,919 Speaker 2: of extremely toxic chemicals into the air that caused fucking 446 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 2: cancer and stuff like that. And so what you're dealing with, right, 447 00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 2: is this crisis in which all of these different aspects 448 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 2: of the economy that rely on oil are impacted. Right, 449 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 2: it's basic commodities, it's highly advanced like parts of like 450 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:37,400 Speaker 2: some MAAC conductor manufacturing. It's you know, all of these 451 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:42,159 Speaker 2: things that rely on oil are suddenly constrained, and suddenly 452 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 2: the supply chains are fragmenting. You know, the US gets 453 00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 2: things from all over the world, but the crisis right 454 00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 2: now has mostly been hitting East Asia. Right. I talked 455 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 2: about Korea, we talked about high Land. The thing is right, 456 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,639 Speaker 2: crises in East Asia do not stay in East Asia. 457 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:02,439 Speaker 2: Like the Asian mark collapse, heralded a whole bunch of 458 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 2: other debt crises. This is the Asian market class in 459 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,879 Speaker 2: the nineties, right, Herald's a bunch of debt crises in 460 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 2: places like Mexico. Heralds the collapse of the US economy 461 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,280 Speaker 2: and drain the dot com bubble. It causes, as say 462 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,159 Speaker 2: it with me, long time listeners of the show, is 463 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,880 Speaker 2: what causes the reverse Plaza Accords try to bail out 464 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 2: the entire world economy, which is where the US like 465 00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 2: nuked its own manufacturing economy. By reversing Reagan's attempt to 466 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 2: force all of the rest of the countries in the 467 00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,480 Speaker 2: world to increase the value of their currencies relative to 468 00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 2: the dollars of the US, he compete in manufacturing better. 469 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 2: You know, so it affects all these places, you know, 470 00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,800 Speaker 2: and that that effect will boomerang back here. But as 471 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,440 Speaker 2: as is always true with American imperialism, the people suffering 472 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,280 Speaker 2: from this the most are not Americans. It's people in 473 00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:53,320 Speaker 2: a run, right, It's people who are getting fucking blown up. 474 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:58,160 Speaker 2: It's people who are breathing in toxic chemicals as people 475 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,680 Speaker 2: whose lives have been destroyed and ruined by American imperialism. 476 00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:06,880 Speaker 2: And beyond Ron, it's Pakistan, it's India, it's Bangladesh, it's Taiwan, 477 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:10,959 Speaker 2: it's Thailand, it's the Philippines, South Korea, it's Mia and 478 00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:15,160 Speaker 2: mar Like it's Indonesia. I mean, it's Western's and Indonesia. 479 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:19,680 Speaker 2: But you know, we're talking about potential crop failures from 480 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:24,440 Speaker 2: lack of fertilizer, right, we're talking about economic ruin. We're 481 00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:27,879 Speaker 2: talking about the destabilization of the world economy, or we're 482 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,400 Speaker 2: talking about people dying for fucking cancer when we're talking 483 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,560 Speaker 2: about the global economic effects of this, That's what we're 484 00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 2: really dealing with here, regardless of what happens on the 485 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 2: American stock markets, is a whole bunch of people who 486 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:45,199 Speaker 2: never had anything to do with this fucking suffering and 487 00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:49,360 Speaker 2: dying because of the fucking greed and pride and vanity 488 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:53,679 Speaker 2: and hatred of the American ruling class. Now I'm going 489 00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:56,879 Speaker 2: to close on a slightly lighter note, which is people 490 00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 2: who follow the economy very closely will be talking about 491 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,879 Speaker 2: how post B the Korean Index had a massive bubble 492 00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,440 Speaker 2: and that's why it collapsed, and that's why it had 493 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:07,440 Speaker 2: like two circuit breakers, and that's why it's going down 494 00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:12,320 Speaker 2: so much. That's kind of true, right, But that bubble 495 00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:16,480 Speaker 2: is an AI bubble. Now it is a larger and 496 00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:21,119 Speaker 2: more concentrated version of the American AI bubble. But you know, 497 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:25,880 Speaker 2: the American economy is an AI bubble. And the thing 498 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:29,600 Speaker 2: about AI is that it's propped up by gas prices. Right. 499 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:36,000 Speaker 2: AI is enormously enormously fuel intensive. That's just it. It 500 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:40,719 Speaker 2: wastes a staggering, un hinged amount of energy, right, And 501 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,359 Speaker 2: it can only really function as long as those oil 502 00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:47,000 Speaker 2: prices are very cheap and as long as natural gas 503 00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 2: prices are cheap. And it's also worth noting that, you know, 504 00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:52,680 Speaker 2: these AI things are also doing a physical infrastructure, because 505 00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:56,720 Speaker 2: these people are just like absolute clowns. They've been buying 506 00:27:56,760 --> 00:28:00,640 Speaker 2: into the Golf monarchy's attempts to attract a tech sector there, 507 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:02,879 Speaker 2: so they've been hit. And Iran has been taking advantage 508 00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:04,639 Speaker 2: of this by hitting an Amazon data centers in the 509 00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:09,200 Speaker 2: Golf States. So that's another way where this can potentially 510 00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,880 Speaker 2: just sort of toss a nuke into the global economy. 511 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,920 Speaker 2: Is that like the price of running all of these 512 00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 2: AI things suddenly starts to increase. And the kind of 513 00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,359 Speaker 2: worst case scenario scenario for this, right, the one that 514 00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:26,639 Speaker 2: we've been looking at in terms of what could happen 515 00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:31,119 Speaker 2: to the world economy is what's been being discussed more 516 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:33,320 Speaker 2: and more, which is a version of the Crisis of 517 00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:37,320 Speaker 2: the seventies, which is an economic crisis of increasing inflation 518 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:42,320 Speaker 2: and also increasing unemployment that completely reshaped the entire global economy. 519 00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:44,920 Speaker 2: It's why we have neoliberalism, you know. It's a complete 520 00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:47,600 Speaker 2: collapse with the social democratic system that had come before it. 521 00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:51,120 Speaker 2: It changes the entire global world order. Right, the US 522 00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 2: goes off the gold standard, like things change that had 523 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,560 Speaker 2: never changed before. And we're going to talk about that 524 00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:00,200 Speaker 2: more on the tariff episode. But that to a large then, 525 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 2: to the ruling class is what is at stake here, right, 526 00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:09,000 Speaker 2: It's whether it is worth destroying the global economy in 527 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:11,160 Speaker 2: order for Trump to kill what people are or on 528 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:13,360 Speaker 2: this has been It could Happen Here. 529 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,840 Speaker 1: It could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media. 530 00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:23,040 Speaker 1: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website 531 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,720 Speaker 1: Coolzonmedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 532 00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:28,680 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you. 533 00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 2: Listen to podcasts. 534 00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 1: You can now find sources for it could Happen here 535 00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:35,040 Speaker 1: listed directly in episode descriptions. 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