1
00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:03,400
Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody at betting Pros's time to place your bets.

2
00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:06,760
Speaker 1: It's me Joey Paid Joe Pizapia, and today we're going

3
00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:09,200
Speaker 1: to take a look at the upcoming race. The one

4
00:00:09,280 --> 00:00:12,200
Speaker 1: hundred and forty ninth Kentucky Derby is upon us this

5
00:00:12,320 --> 00:00:16,040
Speaker 1: weekend and to help us break it down from the

6
00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:18,280
Speaker 1: Magic Mike Show and Dudes who Bet Daily is the one,

7
00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:20,439
Speaker 1: the only Mike Samich. You could follow him on the

8
00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:24,240
Speaker 1: Twitter machine at Samobam eighteen. Of course check out all

9
00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:26,279
Speaker 1: of his great work at racing dudes. And I'm so

10
00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:29,840
Speaker 1: happy he's here because I know very little about horse racing.

11
00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:31,560
Speaker 2: There you go. I'm just keeping it real here on

12
00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:33,800
Speaker 2: the show. I always do. But I will say this.

13
00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:37,479
Speaker 1: The first sports bet I ever made it a Vegas casino,

14
00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:39,800
Speaker 1: was on the Kentucky Derby. It was unjustified and I

15
00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:42,760
Speaker 1: want it. It was a magical day. It was fantastic.

16
00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:44,800
Speaker 1: I was there for a wedding mic it was an

17
00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,520
Speaker 1: Elvis wedding. We had the wedding, we went out there,

18
00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:49,080
Speaker 1: we hung out, we went to the sportsbook for a

19
00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:51,239
Speaker 1: little while. After I said, let's put some money on

20
00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:53,440
Speaker 1: the Kentucky Derby. When you know it, it ended up

21
00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:56,480
Speaker 1: returning some cash. So I want you to pick much

22
00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:58,360
Speaker 1: better winners than I would pick on this. So, Mike,

23
00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:00,920
Speaker 1: I appreciate you being on the show. And how much

24
00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:02,440
Speaker 1: dancing do you do on the Magic Mic Show?

25
00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:03,120
Speaker 2: That's what I want to know.

26
00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:05,400
Speaker 3: Well, you know you got to check out the show

27
00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:07,200
Speaker 3: to watch. We we got the YouTube stream now every

28
00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:09,600
Speaker 3: week and it gets pretty crazy over there. You never

29
00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:12,560
Speaker 3: know what's gonna happen. It's it's a class to be here. Joe,

30
00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:15,199
Speaker 3: thank you very much for having me justify phenomenal horse

31
00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:17,520
Speaker 3: there well, first first triple crown winner in years. It

32
00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:19,240
Speaker 3: was great to see him get the job done. It's

33
00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:21,360
Speaker 3: a beauty of horse racing and the Kentucky Derby. This

34
00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:24,640
Speaker 3: is the one race that everyone bets every year and

35
00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:27,639
Speaker 3: it's going to be really interesting after having Rich Strike

36
00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:29,720
Speaker 3: win it last year. Is the fastest opening half mile

37
00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,360
Speaker 3: in the Kentucky Derby history. A historic payout from a

38
00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:35,120
Speaker 3: win perspective, I would expect you're not going to have

39
00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:37,160
Speaker 3: any monster prices, but that means there's gonna be a

40
00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:39,520
Speaker 3: ton of value in those middle prices because of how

41
00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:41,160
Speaker 3: many people are going to play these long shots. This

42
00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:42,720
Speaker 3: year because of the result last year.

43
00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:44,720
Speaker 1: All right, well they're going to break down all the

44
00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:47,840
Speaker 1: horses and obviously we're gonna break down the turf. We're

45
00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:50,320
Speaker 1: gonna break down also talking about you know where they're

46
00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:52,440
Speaker 1: going to be you know posted, because that's very important

47
00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:54,360
Speaker 1: too in terms of positions. So before we get to

48
00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:57,360
Speaker 1: all that, just quick reminder. Also bet mgm is offering

49
00:01:57,360 --> 00:01:59,920
Speaker 1: one thousand dollars new users in their first free bet.

50
00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:01,880
Speaker 1: Sign up to a bet mgm and use that promo

51
00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,280
Speaker 1: code Juice, and you get paid back up to one

52
00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:06,480
Speaker 1: thousand dollars in free bonuses even if you don't win.

53
00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,240
Speaker 1: So sign up for bet mgm today and use that

54
00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:11,320
Speaker 1: promo code Juice when you do, and don't forget to

55
00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:13,640
Speaker 1: subscribe to betting Pros YouTube channel. Is when you do

56
00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:15,440
Speaker 1: and you click that little bell for notifications and you

57
00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:17,600
Speaker 1: drop a comment below tell me who you think is

58
00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:19,600
Speaker 1: going to win the derby, you can win an opportunity

59
00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:22,919
Speaker 1: to get a free premium upgrade to Betting Pros Premium.

60
00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,080
Speaker 2: So if you're looking for access to exclusive.

61
00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:26,600
Speaker 1: Picks, top rate of player props, whatever it might be,

62
00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:29,040
Speaker 1: Betting Pros Premium has you covered. You get sign up

63
00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:31,679
Speaker 1: today without even waiting for the contest. Bettingpros dot com

64
00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:35,320
Speaker 1: slash upgrade. Start betting smarter, not harder. That's a good

65
00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:37,760
Speaker 1: thing to do, So let's talk about it first. Obviously

66
00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:40,040
Speaker 1: we have the favorite is forte, so we know that

67
00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:41,880
Speaker 1: we're gonna get to your long shots in the second.

68
00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:44,760
Speaker 1: Walk me through, Mike, what's going on here in terms

69
00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:46,919
Speaker 1: of the position, how important it is for some of

70
00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,160
Speaker 1: these horses, and who runs well on this track.

71
00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:51,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, eight of the last ten winners have been forwardly

72
00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:53,919
Speaker 3: placed in the Kentucky Derby, so right out of the gate,

73
00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,040
Speaker 3: since we switched over to the points system, you've seen

74
00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:58,760
Speaker 3: horses that are more forwardly placed win. It's one of

75
00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,440
Speaker 3: the biggest knocks against sitting at three to one, he's

76
00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:03,760
Speaker 3: not a horse that is generally forwardly placed. So he's

77
00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:06,799
Speaker 3: gonna sit mid to backpack and try and make one

78
00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:08,680
Speaker 3: big run around the far turn and see if he's

79
00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:11,919
Speaker 3: able to get the job done. The fifteen post where

80
00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:14,000
Speaker 3: he drew is not a problem for him. I mean,

81
00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:15,680
Speaker 3: he did not want to be all the way on

82
00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:17,280
Speaker 3: the inside because that can get you in a lot

83
00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:19,839
Speaker 3: of traffic trouble in there. But drawing that fifteen post

84
00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:21,520
Speaker 3: would set him up to get his one run in.

85
00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:23,240
Speaker 3: The question is how wide is he haveing to go

86
00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:25,440
Speaker 3: and what type of trip is Irad or t Is

87
00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:27,200
Speaker 3: gonna be able to get on him. Now he's got

88
00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:30,000
Speaker 3: arguably the best jockey in the world, so that's a

89
00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:33,600
Speaker 3: huge positive for Forte here. He is won twice at Keenland,

90
00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:37,400
Speaker 3: so he likes these Kentucky tracks. The question is gonna

91
00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:38,760
Speaker 3: be where is he gonna be and is he gonna

92
00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:40,520
Speaker 3: be close enough to be able to get the job

93
00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:41,320
Speaker 3: done down the lane?

94
00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:43,880
Speaker 1: And he have Forte at one ninety with the points

95
00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:46,560
Speaker 1: he a practical move at one sixty, Angel Vampire one

96
00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:49,720
Speaker 1: fifty four, and then a few other horses behind that.

97
00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:53,280
Speaker 1: So Forte obviously the heavy favorite three to one. Here

98
00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:57,280
Speaker 1: we're looking at Tapa Trice at five to one. Can

99
00:03:57,320 --> 00:03:59,200
Speaker 1: you make a case for any of the other favorites

100
00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:02,880
Speaker 1: who are in let's say that ten under range here

101
00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:04,320
Speaker 1: that you think might have a shot or is it

102
00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:06,400
Speaker 1: really Fourte's race to lose in that sense?

103
00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:08,960
Speaker 3: The other horse that's under ten to one, I think

104
00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:10,400
Speaker 3: that you got to take a look at is Angel

105
00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:14,000
Speaker 3: of Empire. Angel of Empire is a Bradcox trainee Flavian

106
00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,560
Speaker 3: Pratt picked this horse over Kings Barnes, so we're going

107
00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:18,120
Speaker 3: to talk about a little later as well, the six

108
00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:21,360
Speaker 3: horse for Todd Pletcher. This horse won in two different ways,

109
00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:23,240
Speaker 3: which I love to see. So it was able to

110
00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:25,360
Speaker 3: win down in Louisiana in a pace collapse, so they

111
00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:28,120
Speaker 3: had a really fast pace and you saw Angel of

112
00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:30,000
Speaker 3: Empire be able to close into that and get the

113
00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,040
Speaker 3: job done. Then in the Arkansas Derby, you had every

114
00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:35,719
Speaker 3: horse pretty much get a good trip and a reasonable pace,

115
00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:37,720
Speaker 3: so there was no one that could really complain about

116
00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:40,440
Speaker 3: about the run they got. And Angel Vampire actually smoked

117
00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:42,360
Speaker 3: that field one by four and a half lengths, never

118
00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:45,080
Speaker 3: looked like a loser, saved ground and then tilted off

119
00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:47,120
Speaker 3: the rail and just had this big kick coming from home.

120
00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:50,040
Speaker 3: The biggest issue with Angel of Empire again, much like Forte,

121
00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:51,880
Speaker 3: gonna want to come from off the pace and so

122
00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:53,800
Speaker 3: the question is how is that going to set up?

123
00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:55,840
Speaker 3: So those would be the two sub ten to one

124
00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,039
Speaker 3: horses I'm interested in. When you look at horses like

125
00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:01,080
Speaker 3: tap at Trice who drew the five post here maybe

126
00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:03,719
Speaker 3: the most talented horse in this race long term, in

127
00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:06,560
Speaker 3: a world of trouble in this specific spot. He's run

128
00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:09,480
Speaker 3: five times. He has never broken well. All five of

129
00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,599
Speaker 3: those races broken poorly. When you're drawn in that inside

130
00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:14,520
Speaker 3: part of this race and you break out of that

131
00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:16,719
Speaker 3: five gate and you don't break well, you're going to

132
00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:20,120
Speaker 3: have fifteen horses to your outside just crushing down towards

133
00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:21,480
Speaker 3: the rail because they're all going to be trying to

134
00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:23,760
Speaker 3: get position, and they're all faster than him. You could

135
00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:26,400
Speaker 3: easily see him sitting in twentieth going under the finish

136
00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:28,480
Speaker 3: line for the first time. And that is a recipe

137
00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:31,360
Speaker 3: for disaster. When you look at practical move ten to one,

138
00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:33,960
Speaker 3: the horse is coming out of California, has looked much

139
00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:36,040
Speaker 3: better as a three year old than a two year old.

140
00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:39,000
Speaker 3: But his sire is practical joke, so his dad's practical joke,

141
00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:41,240
Speaker 3: a horse that does not want two turns at all.

142
00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:43,839
Speaker 3: So there's a distance concern here with practical move. And

143
00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:46,120
Speaker 3: when you look at the last two races, was able

144
00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:47,800
Speaker 3: to win go in two turns a mile sixteenth and

145
00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:49,040
Speaker 3: then a mile and an eighth. We're going to go

146
00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,600
Speaker 3: a mile and a quarter. So for long longer here

147
00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:54,880
Speaker 3: today than his last race. He was starting to breathe

148
00:05:54,880 --> 00:05:57,320
Speaker 3: a little heavily going down that lane there, and he

149
00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:00,520
Speaker 3: tripped out, which means in horse racing terms, he got

150
00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:02,799
Speaker 3: to save ground on both turns. He had no issues

151
00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:05,400
Speaker 3: from a traffic perspective. He was able to sit close

152
00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:07,800
Speaker 3: to the pace and then just make one move. That's

153
00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:10,520
Speaker 3: the easiest way to get a distance that you struggle getting.

154
00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:13,400
Speaker 3: So he got the perfect setup, perfect trip in both

155
00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:16,640
Speaker 3: of those races, and specifically in the sanity of the derby,

156
00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:19,760
Speaker 3: he barely held on to Mandarin Hero, who didn't qualify

157
00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:22,479
Speaker 3: for the race, and probably would be thirty to one

158
00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:24,320
Speaker 3: forty to one if he does make it into the

159
00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:26,320
Speaker 3: field and you're sitting there staring at ten to one

160
00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:28,400
Speaker 3: on practical move, I have a lot of concerns about

161
00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:29,840
Speaker 3: him being able to get the actual distance.

162
00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:32,200
Speaker 2: There was some good phase there, including tap a trice

163
00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:32,720
Speaker 2: a five to one.

164
00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:34,240
Speaker 1: I'm sure it's gonna be a popular bet, but you

165
00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:35,800
Speaker 1: make a really good case there on the fade on

166
00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:38,680
Speaker 1: that horse. Everybody loves long shots, and everybody loves some

167
00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:40,840
Speaker 1: of these ones that are a little bit fuller out

168
00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:43,640
Speaker 1: in terms of odds, because it's fun to bet. Angel

169
00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:46,599
Speaker 1: Vampire is at eight to one so that is definitely

170
00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:48,560
Speaker 1: more of a long shot. Is there somebody that's even

171
00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:50,760
Speaker 1: further down the list where you think has a real

172
00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:52,240
Speaker 1: shot to win this Derby race.

173
00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:55,240
Speaker 3: I'm going to go to the eight horse mage here,

174
00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:58,960
Speaker 3: and this was one where I picked this horse to

175
00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:01,599
Speaker 3: run second to four in the Florida Derby. Ended up

176
00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:04,320
Speaker 3: running second there. But we talked about the trip with

177
00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:07,920
Speaker 3: practical move. Mage has gotten an awful trip in his

178
00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:10,040
Speaker 3: last two races, so did not break well in either

179
00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:11,960
Speaker 3: of those races, and that is really the biggest concern

180
00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:15,200
Speaker 3: with Mage. Mage needs to break well on Saturday to

181
00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:17,360
Speaker 3: be a factor. But if he breaks well and is

182
00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:19,920
Speaker 3: sitting in that first five horses and he has the

183
00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:22,200
Speaker 3: early speed to do that, if he breaks he is

184
00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:24,800
Speaker 3: a very very live long shot at fifteen to one.

185
00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:27,280
Speaker 3: If you go back in the watches Florida Derby, he

186
00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,760
Speaker 3: breaks poorly, he gets bumped early, he's forced four wide

187
00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,080
Speaker 3: and is in dead last. And this is the horse

188
00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:35,640
Speaker 3: who wants to be upfront, is in dead last. He

189
00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:38,120
Speaker 3: makes a massive move, actually hits the lead and just

190
00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,480
Speaker 3: gets run down by fourte there in the last sixteenth

191
00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:42,720
Speaker 3: of a mile. To me, when you have fourt a

192
00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:44,600
Speaker 3: three to one, and this horse ran second to him

193
00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:47,120
Speaker 3: last time with a terrible trip, and you're sitting there

194
00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:49,880
Speaker 3: staring at fifteen to one. There's a lot of value

195
00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:51,800
Speaker 3: there if Mage can just break out of the gate.

196
00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:55,080
Speaker 3: Now it's a big if, but if he does, I

197
00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:56,960
Speaker 3: would have him somewhere in that five to seven to

198
00:07:57,000 --> 00:07:58,840
Speaker 3: one range, not fifteen to one. So I do think

199
00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:00,840
Speaker 3: there's quite a bit of value on me, all right.

200
00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:04,000
Speaker 1: Kings Barnes is another one that you've got kind of

201
00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:04,880
Speaker 1: locked and loaded here.

202
00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:09,040
Speaker 3: Why kings Barnes is interesting because it's it's really a

203
00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:11,640
Speaker 3: wild card in a lot of ways. Broke his maiden

204
00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:14,160
Speaker 3: n ack Gulfstream Park and it was a race that

205
00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:16,520
Speaker 3: didn't really produce any other great horses, so you don't

206
00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:18,200
Speaker 3: know how good it is. He went down to Tampa

207
00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:21,160
Speaker 3: and he won that race really easily, but the horse

208
00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:24,000
Speaker 3: that ran second ran second to last in the Tampa

209
00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:26,320
Speaker 3: Bay Derby, so not a ton behind him there either.

210
00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:29,360
Speaker 3: Then he goes to Louisiana and wins Louisiana Derby, which

211
00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:32,080
Speaker 3: is a major prep for this Kentucky Derby race. But

212
00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:34,280
Speaker 3: he is able to do it. In these He sets

213
00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:37,760
Speaker 3: the pace and wins with the slowest six furlongs that

214
00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:40,360
Speaker 3: we have seen in any major Kentucky Derby prep since

215
00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:44,439
Speaker 3: the points era started, so really an easy trip for Kingsbarnes.

216
00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:47,400
Speaker 3: So we're not sure how good he is, but he's

217
00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:49,840
Speaker 3: got tactical speed in a race that does not feature

218
00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:52,120
Speaker 3: a lot of tactical speed. He should be sitting close

219
00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:54,280
Speaker 3: to the pace, and we talked about this earlier. Eight

220
00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:56,720
Speaker 3: of the first last ten Derby winners have all been

221
00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:59,440
Speaker 3: sitting close to the pace. He checks all of those

222
00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:02,280
Speaker 3: boxes and that sixth post position is a great draw

223
00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:04,240
Speaker 3: for him. You're going to see speed from the two

224
00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:07,200
Speaker 3: horse verifying from the four horse confidence game. He's gonna

225
00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,680
Speaker 3: be able to sit right behind those horses and get

226
00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:13,480
Speaker 3: that dream trip here. We don't know if he's good enough,

227
00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:16,400
Speaker 3: and he's probably the third most talented pletcher in this race.

228
00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:19,160
Speaker 3: On top of that, it took him forever. He just

229
00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:21,200
Speaker 3: got a jockey over the weekend, so it took that

230
00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:23,000
Speaker 3: long for someone to actually pick up the mount here,

231
00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:26,520
Speaker 3: which was shocking, and Flavian Pratt picked Angel Vampire over

232
00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:30,119
Speaker 3: kings Barnes. But all that being said, kings Barnes probably

233
00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:31,800
Speaker 3: going to be one of the best horses that's sitting

234
00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:33,280
Speaker 3: in that first flight, So twelve to one is a

235
00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:34,120
Speaker 3: nice price on him.

236
00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:35,600
Speaker 1: I know there's another horse you have your eye on

237
00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:38,319
Speaker 1: to Dermasotagake, which you know is another one where you're

238
00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:40,719
Speaker 1: looking at the board and you're looking at returns ten

239
00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:41,040
Speaker 1: to one.

240
00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:42,480
Speaker 2: That's a pretty good number there.

241
00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:44,719
Speaker 1: Why are you excited about this one that's running out

242
00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:46,080
Speaker 1: of the seventeenth position.

243
00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:49,640
Speaker 3: Well, this is this is an interesting horse because we

244
00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:53,360
Speaker 3: have the least amount of information on Dermosotagate. This is

245
00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:55,679
Speaker 3: the wild card in the field. If you will, won

246
00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:59,400
Speaker 3: the UA Derby and this horse is from Japan. Neither.

247
00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:02,000
Speaker 3: We never had a Derby winner from Japan. We've never

248
00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:04,719
Speaker 3: had a UA Derby winner win the Kentucky Derby. Oh

249
00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:06,480
Speaker 3: by the way, we've never had a horse break out

250
00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:08,760
Speaker 3: of the seventeen post and win the Kentucky Derby either.

251
00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:12,040
Speaker 3: So he's trying to break three separate trends here.

252
00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:13,360
Speaker 2: So why do you think he can?

253
00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:16,800
Speaker 3: I don't think this is a very good field. This

254
00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:18,960
Speaker 3: is one of the weaker Kentucky Derbies we've seen in

255
00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:22,040
Speaker 3: a long time, and there are probably four or five

256
00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,439
Speaker 3: horses that are not in this race because of injury

257
00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:27,160
Speaker 3: or because they didn't qualify. Who are would be the

258
00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:29,079
Speaker 3: second or third choice in the race if they got in.

259
00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:32,559
Speaker 3: And because of that, when you have an unknown like Dermosotagte,

260
00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,160
Speaker 3: I'm more drawn to that horse. I know a lot

261
00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:38,480
Speaker 3: of these horses, and I'm not impressed with what they

262
00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:40,959
Speaker 3: can offer. Dermosota Goatte went gate to wire and the

263
00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:44,280
Speaker 3: UA Derby just misbreaking the track record. There should be

264
00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:47,400
Speaker 3: forwardly placed in this race, which again gives him an

265
00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:50,520
Speaker 3: advantage in that seventeen post. Well, it's not wonderful for him.

266
00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,120
Speaker 3: He should be sitting in fifth or sixth around that

267
00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:55,360
Speaker 3: first turn because of that tactical speed, So I think

268
00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:57,880
Speaker 3: he can overcome that. The other thing that we've seen

269
00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:01,360
Speaker 3: consistently across the globe is these Japanese horses absolutely showing

270
00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:03,360
Speaker 3: up and showing out. At some point there will be

271
00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:05,719
Speaker 3: a Japanese horse that wins the Kentucky Derby. It's now

272
00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:09,200
Speaker 3: a when, not an if, and this could easily be

273
00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:11,720
Speaker 3: that year. When you have a lot of talented horses

274
00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:14,240
Speaker 3: who are coming from off the pace and a Japanese

275
00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:16,160
Speaker 3: horse that's going to be more forwardly placed. That is

276
00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:19,120
Speaker 3: a very good horse. A lot of question marks, but

277
00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:21,560
Speaker 3: at the same time, if we can get the right price,

278
00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:23,360
Speaker 3: I think Dermosolta Goata is awfully interesting.

279
00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:24,280
Speaker 2: I think it's fascinating.

280
00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:26,520
Speaker 1: You're saying all these things that have historically never happened,

281
00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:29,120
Speaker 1: yet you got ten to one odds. So what are

282
00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:31,199
Speaker 1: the odds makers seeing here? And maybe they're seeing the

283
00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:34,000
Speaker 1: opportunity for a lot of this history to be made

284
00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:37,520
Speaker 1: if I will that you've kind of presented to us,

285
00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:39,360
Speaker 1: But it feels like they think it's a little bit

286
00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:41,920
Speaker 1: more feasible than maybe they're letting on.

287
00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:44,480
Speaker 3: Well, there's two things that you have to remember with

288
00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:46,680
Speaker 3: the morning line odds. So the morning line odds aren't

289
00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:49,880
Speaker 3: necessarily someone's opinion on what they believe will happen in

290
00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:52,240
Speaker 3: the race. It's how they believe the race will be bet.

291
00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:54,959
Speaker 3: So they're trying to essentially guess what the off odds

292
00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:56,880
Speaker 3: are for the race to give the public a better

293
00:11:56,920 --> 00:11:59,280
Speaker 3: idea of what to expect from a payout. Since this

294
00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:03,200
Speaker 3: is a paramutol versus just betting against the sports book.

295
00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:05,080
Speaker 3: You don't lock in the odds. When you place your

296
00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:07,240
Speaker 3: wager on the Kentucky Derby, you get whatever the gates

297
00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:10,200
Speaker 3: open at. So the morning. Lines maker's goal is to

298
00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:12,560
Speaker 3: actually have the horses go off at the same price,

299
00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,280
Speaker 3: so they're trying to predict what the public will do

300
00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:17,920
Speaker 3: when they get to the window and they decide to bet.

301
00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:22,120
Speaker 3: I mentioned that that Japan swing. Japan has been on fire,

302
00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:23,920
Speaker 3: and because of that, you've seen a lot of these

303
00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:27,560
Speaker 3: horses get bet in international races when they ship into

304
00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:29,760
Speaker 3: when they ship to Europe, when they ship to the

305
00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:31,920
Speaker 3: Middle East, even when they came for the Breeders Cup,

306
00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:33,680
Speaker 3: a lot of the Japanese horses got bet and they've

307
00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:35,680
Speaker 3: been successful the last two years at the Breeders Cup

308
00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:39,520
Speaker 3: as well. That is going to create just some general

309
00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:43,559
Speaker 3: Japanese horse money. I'm both germosoltag Goatte and continue Are.

310
00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:45,920
Speaker 3: I think ten to one is probably a little bit short.

311
00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:47,920
Speaker 3: I'm hoping we get twelve to fifteen to one on

312
00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:50,360
Speaker 3: race day, but I understand why the line maker made

313
00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:51,320
Speaker 3: that ten to one line.

314
00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:53,600
Speaker 1: One other thing, Mike that you mentioned that I think

315
00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:56,800
Speaker 1: is bears fruit, which is you said that it's not

316
00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:58,800
Speaker 1: a great field. If it's not a great field, does

317
00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:01,440
Speaker 1: that make Forte even more peeling from a betting standpoint,

318
00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:03,079
Speaker 1: even though it's the favorite.

319
00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:06,720
Speaker 3: Forte hasn't done anything wrong, and that's that's why he

320
00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:07,560
Speaker 3: is the favorite here.

321
00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:07,800
Speaker 2: Right.

322
00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:10,600
Speaker 3: He's gotten a very good trip in almost every single race.

323
00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:13,319
Speaker 3: The one exception there the Florida Derby, where he showed

324
00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:15,600
Speaker 3: the heart of a champion. I mean, Forte was two

325
00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:17,960
Speaker 3: lengths back with a sixteenth a mile to go and

326
00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:20,160
Speaker 3: was able to make up that ground and roll right by.

327
00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:23,440
Speaker 3: He has no distance concerns. There just aren't any real

328
00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:26,480
Speaker 3: question marks with Forte. I'd I'd be very surprised if

329
00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:28,640
Speaker 3: he doesn't hit the board as long as he doesn't

330
00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:29,880
Speaker 3: get stopped at some point.

331
00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:32,719
Speaker 2: All right, but drop these Oh god, oh I'm sorry,

332
00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:33,319
Speaker 2: I thought you were done.

333
00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:36,360
Speaker 3: Go ahead. But he's also not a rock star. He's

334
00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:39,319
Speaker 3: not a justify, right, He's not an Americans go out

335
00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:40,880
Speaker 3: there when the next two races after is what you're

336
00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:43,920
Speaker 3: saying exactly, And there's enough things that can go wrong

337
00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:46,079
Speaker 3: from a trip perspective that makes you willing to take

338
00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:48,280
Speaker 3: a shot against him when he has not shown an

339
00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:50,560
Speaker 3: improvement at three that you were hoping to see after

340
00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:51,960
Speaker 3: being the two year old champion.

341
00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:54,240
Speaker 2: All right, so drop the sam obam on me.

342
00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:56,800
Speaker 1: Tell me how you are going to be betting this

343
00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:59,240
Speaker 1: in terms of spreading out the units, when you're looking

344
00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:01,400
Speaker 1: in terms of long shots, in terms of the favorites,

345
00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:03,679
Speaker 1: in terms of trifecta, like, whatever you have in your

346
00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:06,360
Speaker 1: mind that you think is your approach to betting the

347
00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:07,200
Speaker 1: Derby this weekend.

348
00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,719
Speaker 3: Well, my favorite bet probably all year is the one

349
00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,319
Speaker 3: dollar SuperFect in the Kentucky Derby. A lot of tracks

350
00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:15,959
Speaker 3: off for a ten cent superfecta, and so you really

351
00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:20,200
Speaker 3: water down the value of long shots, and a lot

352
00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:21,920
Speaker 3: of people are able to spread out more. And so

353
00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:23,760
Speaker 3: for ten cents you can play a lot of horses

354
00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,000
Speaker 3: on that ticket. For a dollar, you really got to

355
00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:27,880
Speaker 3: shorten up your opinion. And so I like to play

356
00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:30,600
Speaker 3: a couple dollars superfectas when I play the Derby, I'll

357
00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:33,400
Speaker 3: put a couple different horses on top. For me, I'm

358
00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:35,760
Speaker 3: probably gonna have Mage on top of one at fifteen

359
00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:38,360
Speaker 3: to one, and I would have Angel Vampire on top

360
00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:40,160
Speaker 3: of the other at eight to one, and then I

361
00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:42,640
Speaker 3: would put the other four horses underneath. So I would put,

362
00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:45,760
Speaker 3: you know, the eight Mage with the six Kings Barn

363
00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:48,920
Speaker 3: the well, let me pull this up here for you.

364
00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:51,880
Speaker 3: The six Kings Barn thirteen, the fourteen Angel of Empire,

365
00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:55,560
Speaker 3: the fifteen forte and the seventeen Dermosotagatte underneath, and then

366
00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:57,480
Speaker 3: I'd flip that around. I put the fourteen Angel of

367
00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:00,680
Speaker 3: Empire on top with the six Kings Barn eight Maje,

368
00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:04,680
Speaker 3: the fifteen forty and the seventeen dermosotagat De. That would

369
00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:06,600
Speaker 3: cost you twenty four dollars for each of those if

370
00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:07,520
Speaker 3: you play it for one dollar.

371
00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:10,960
Speaker 2: Incredible stuff here, Mike so much everybody.

372
00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:13,400
Speaker 1: Make sure you follow him on Twitter at SAMO bomb

373
00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:16,440
Speaker 1: eighteen and check out the YouTube channel. Tell everybody what

374
00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:17,600
Speaker 1: you got going on there too, because I know you

375
00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:20,560
Speaker 1: got live stuff happening. You've got wall to wall coverage here,

376
00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:22,480
Speaker 1: so if people are really into the derby, you're the

377
00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:23,960
Speaker 1: place to go. So I want to hear about it.

378
00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:26,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's gonna be a busy week for us. Make

379
00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:29,080
Speaker 3: sure you check out YouTube Best backslash Racing Dudes. We've

380
00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:31,520
Speaker 3: got capsules for all of the twenty horses that are

381
00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:33,080
Speaker 3: in the Kentucky Derby, so you can go learn more

382
00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:35,480
Speaker 3: about each of those horses. We have a live reporter

383
00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:37,400
Speaker 3: who has been breaking down some of the workouts there.

384
00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:39,240
Speaker 3: We have a live Derby Draw show that we just

385
00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:41,040
Speaker 3: wrapped up, so you can check out that replay if

386
00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:42,880
Speaker 3: you'd like to as well. We're gonna be live at

387
00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:47,560
Speaker 3: ninety in Pacific noon Eastern Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday

388
00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:49,440
Speaker 3: morning to get any type of the Derby updates, so

389
00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:51,200
Speaker 3: any of the news that breaks, we'll be covering that,

390
00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:54,160
Speaker 3: and then on Friday and Saturday we'll be live during

391
00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:55,960
Speaker 3: the races. You can come join us and listen to

392
00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:58,760
Speaker 3: us handicap and give out our picks and hopefully get

393
00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:01,160
Speaker 3: a couple winners home from both the Kentucky Oaks and

394
00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:02,360
Speaker 3: the Kentucky Derby Cards.

395
00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:03,520
Speaker 2: Well, I don't know about.

396
00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:05,440
Speaker 1: Everybody listening, but I certainly feel a lot more confident

397
00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:07,880
Speaker 1: betting it now that I've talked to you, So thank

398
00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:09,520
Speaker 1: goodness you're here and gave us the time.

399
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:10,360
Speaker 2: We appreciate it.

400
00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:12,200
Speaker 1: Believe me, and go follow them on Twitter again sam

401
00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:14,640
Speaker 1: Obam eighteen for all the latest when it comes to

402
00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:16,480
Speaker 1: horse racing and all the racing in general.

403
00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:17,200
Speaker 2: Don't forget.

404
00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:20,160
Speaker 1: Also download the betmgm app or just go to betmgm

405
00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:23,240
Speaker 1: dot com sign up with that promo code Juice when

406
00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:25,360
Speaker 1: you do, and also hit up bettingpros dot com slash

407
00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:28,240
Speaker 1: upgrade to go premium over at Betting Pros and download

408
00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:29,520
Speaker 1: the apps. You can stay on top of all the

409
00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,320
Speaker 1: latest that's going on in all the betting world in

410
00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:34,520
Speaker 1: terms of line movement, in terms of news, all that

411
00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:35,880
Speaker 1: is there for you at Betting Pros.

412
00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:37,800
Speaker 2: Again, download the app. It's free.

413
00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:39,840
Speaker 1: It's good for you, especially if you're starting to take

414
00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:41,640
Speaker 1: this stuff real seriously, and I know that you do.

415
00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:42,440
Speaker 2: Because you're watching the show.

416
00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:44,240
Speaker 1: When you're listening to the show, that'll do it for us,

417
00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:46,120
Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on for Mike.

418
00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:48,680
Speaker 2: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids,