1 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: The volume. The Colin Cowherd Podcast brought to you by 2 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:09,720 Speaker 1: Fan Duel. It's never been easier to play fantasy on 3 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 1: Fan Duel. Whether you love basketball, golf, soccer, or any 4 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: fantasy sport. There is a contest for every fan Fan 5 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 1: Duel More Ways to win. Hi, everybody Chad Millman in 6 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:34,159 Speaker 1: ten minutes first though, it's fake questions, real answers. We 7 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:36,879 Speaker 1: do it every Friday morning. I got things I want 8 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:39,199 Speaker 1: to talk about. I don't want to wait for you 9 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: to ask me the question. Dear Colin, it seems like 10 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: everybody in the world wants you to comment on Tom 11 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 1: Brady wearing his hat backwards Sunday against the Bears. You 12 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:50,880 Speaker 1: want to give the people what they want. Yeah. Fine. 13 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 1: As a society, we've gotten more casual. You can go 14 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 1: to a Vegas show. They used to wear suits to 15 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 1: Vegas shows. You'll see guys in surfboard shorts. People at 16 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 1: steakhouses come in with their hat on backwards. It used 17 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:11,319 Speaker 1: to be twenty five years ago you wouldn't go to 18 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: a steakhouse with a hat period forward or backwards. Society 19 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:20,400 Speaker 1: has just gotten more casual. I'm not an overly rigid 20 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 1: person Generationally, I think it looks tacky, especially in more 21 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:29,559 Speaker 1: professional settings. But I kind of go where society tells 22 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 1: me to go. There's the speed limit, get a vaccine, 23 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: here's a law, here's a regulation. I don't fight society. 24 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: I consider myself a surfer and life is one big 25 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: wave and I just try to ride the momentum of 26 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: life and stay happy. I'm okay with it. It's not 27 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: what I would do. I'm okay with it. Dear Colin. 28 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 1: Everybody wants to know if there's any new inside information 29 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: on the USC head coaching job. What do you have? Actually, 30 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 1: I have great new information. The number one candidate is 31 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 1: James Franklin. The number one concern is the cost of 32 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 1: a staff. USC initially concerned that James Franklin, who has 33 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 1: a big presence and is a great recruiter, he tends 34 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 1: to be a little bit and Nick Saban is to 35 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 1: a control freak. Urban Meyer is too. Most of the 36 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 1: great coaches are USC I've been told has gotten over 37 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 1: that concern. The concern now what is the budget for 38 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 1: the staff. James Franklin is a big presence and a 39 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 1: great recruiter. He won it Vandy, he wins at Penn State. 40 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:32,679 Speaker 1: He needs a great offensive coordinator. The better the coordinator, 41 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 1: the better is teams. And that will probably cost, considering 42 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 1: the LA housing market, one point seven five million a year. 43 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 1: It would cost in the SEC maybe one point two five. 44 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 1: LA is a different animal. James Franklin, I'm told is 45 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 1: the number one target. LSU. The number one target I'm 46 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 1: told is Mel Tucker. Both Mel Tucker at a press 47 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 1: conference this week and James Franklin at a press conference 48 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 1: this week both came off, in my opinion, a little 49 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:09,720 Speaker 1: evasive as they stumbled through questions about those jobs. Mike 50 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:12,800 Speaker 1: Tomlin of the Steelers did not stumble, because he's not 51 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 1: been offered it, he wouldn't accept it and had no interest. 52 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 1: In twenty five seconds, Mike Tomlin put the rumor out. 53 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 1: James Franklin and Mel Tucker, when asked about the USC 54 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 1: and LSU jobs, both stumbled, evasive, clunky. Why because their 55 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 1: agents have been contacted and those job offers are in 56 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 1: the works. Dear Colin, did you see TNT moved inside 57 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 1: the NBA off Thursday so they don't compete against Thursday 58 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 1: Night football? Being the media insider you are, what's your take, Well, 59 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 1: it's a smart move. The NBA actually has self awareness. 60 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 1: You know, an intelligent skier avoids the avalanche, not tries 61 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 1: to ski it down the hill. There is nothing even 62 00:03:58,160 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 1: competitive between NFL and the other sports leagues. It's trying 63 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 1: to compete with hockey in Canada. It's trying to compete 64 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 1: with the English Premier League in London. The NFL is 65 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 1: not only the most popular sports league in America, it's 66 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 1: the most powerful, the best run, the most bet the 67 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 1: most consumed. Everything they touch works. And the NBA, which 68 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 1: has lost thirty six percent of its TV ratings in 69 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:32,280 Speaker 1: two years, finally came to a realization. We have got 70 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 1: to stop the bleeding with our TV ratings. How get 71 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 1: off TV up against the NFL and Thursday Night until 72 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 1: the season is over. I've argued for years that the 73 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 1: NBA season should start on Christmas. That should be the 74 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 1: first TV games on Christmas. That's when the season starts. 75 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:55,799 Speaker 1: Push it back so to seventy five percent of the season. 76 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 1: Eighty percent of the season. Not only doesn't compete with 77 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 1: the NFL and college football, it doesn't compete with NFL 78 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:07,839 Speaker 1: training camp and it ends August first. You're not lacking 79 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:12,720 Speaker 1: courage when you don't want to be buried by an avalanche. 80 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 1: You lack intelligence when you're willing to challenge it. Dear Colin, 81 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:21,159 Speaker 1: is it unfair that the rules have changed to hurt 82 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 1: James Harden in the NBA? Well, no rules were used 83 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 1: to slow down Kareem Abdul Jabbar. The NCAA in nineteen 84 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:32,480 Speaker 1: sixty seven made dunking illegal. It became known as the 85 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 1: lou Alcinder rule. There were rules to slow down Wilt Chamberlain. 86 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 1: The NBA widened the lane from twelve to sixteen feet. 87 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:46,000 Speaker 1: The NBA instituted offensive goaltending. The NBA changed how you 88 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:49,160 Speaker 1: could inbound the ball and also how to shoot free throws, 89 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:51,599 Speaker 1: since he would leap from the line to put the 90 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 1: ball in the basket. This is what the league does 91 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 1: when they feel there's a star that can manipulate a rule. 92 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 1: Wilt Chamberlain at the free throw line, leaping and doing 93 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:08,599 Speaker 1: a finger roll into the basket. The PGA tiger proof courses. 94 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 1: Major League Baseball has lowered the mound or raised it 95 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:17,480 Speaker 1: twenty four times. Leagues and athletes have to adapt. Harden 96 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 1: was manipulating the rules. He'll be fine once he gets 97 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: in better shape, but he was taking advantage of a rule, 98 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: and the NBA smartly put an end to it. Dear Colin, 99 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: is Kadi's moved to the nets becoming one of the 100 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,240 Speaker 1: worst moves in sports history. Yes, I think it's one 101 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 1: of the worst moves a star has ever made. Let 102 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:41,479 Speaker 1: me get an example. When I was at ESPN, people 103 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:45,520 Speaker 1: thought I was crazy to go to FS one, And 104 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: what I had told many of my friends is what 105 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:53,559 Speaker 1: does Fox? In The Murdoch family failed at Fox TV 106 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:58,239 Speaker 1: stations around the country, succeeding wildly, Fox News a billion 107 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 1: dollars a year revenue, Monster, Fox Business, the Wall Street Journal, 108 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 1: the movie business. Then they created a second movie business 109 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:09,160 Speaker 1: called Searchlight, which did smaller, more independent feeling films that 110 00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 1: was a big hit. Fox had succeeded at virtually everything 111 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 1: they had done. Doesn't matter if I have to agree 112 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 1: politically with their ideology on every issue, So Fox was 113 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 1: an easy move for me. Meanwhile, think about Katie played 114 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 1: with Steph Curry. Steph Curry's life is nothing but successes. 115 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: He was a great high school player, a great college player, 116 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 1: a great husband, a great charitable spokesperson, a great shooter, 117 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 1: a great NBA player, a great teammate, a great dad. 118 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 1: What had he failed at? Katie left that to go 119 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 1: with Kyrie Irving, who first of all failed geography. We 120 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 1: know that because he thinks the world is flat. He 121 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 1: couldn't stay healthy at Duke. He was initially in the 122 00:07:57,160 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 1: NBA at Cleveland, largely considered a bust because he couldn't 123 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:04,559 Speaker 1: stay healthy. He worked briefly with Lebron, but then blew 124 00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 1: that up. He went to Boston and blew that franchise's 125 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 1: momentum up, and KD chose Kyrie over Steph. Steph's report 126 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 1: card was all a's. Kyrie's report card was incompletes and failures. 127 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 1: I think it's a tragic move and may stop KaDee 128 00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:38,680 Speaker 1: from ever capturing another title. All right, Chad Millman, my buddy, 129 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 1: chief content officer Action Network. By the way, before we start, 130 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 1: FanDuel wants me to mention this, so I might as 131 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 1: well mention it. I went through an OL one of 132 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:50,479 Speaker 1: my college picks. I love Notre Dame over USC comfortably. 133 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:53,199 Speaker 1: I think USC's in a tailspin with an interim head 134 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 1: coach who's really more of a position coach. Dante Williams. 135 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: Good recruiter, though I took old mister Hammer LSU. I 136 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 1: think there are a a mess right now with the 137 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:04,440 Speaker 1: d Oor John situation. And I said, there's no way 138 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 1: Tennessee can stop Alabama's offense in the second half. They couldn't, 139 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 1: So I went three and on my college football picks. 140 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 1: I do like Michigan State plus the points this week 141 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 1: against Michigan. I don't think Michigan State secondary. I think 142 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 1: it's incredibly vulnerable, but I don't think Michigan can punish it. 143 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:24,200 Speaker 1: They don't throw the ball consistently down the field. I 144 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: think that's a very close game. Although I will tell 145 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:30,599 Speaker 1: you I'm a little concerned with Mel Tucker and being distracted. 146 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 1: James Franklin and Penn State put up a complete dog 147 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 1: performance last week. What a shock. He's rumored to be 148 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 1: up for the USC job. So as coaches tall their agents, 149 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 1: as coaches call their agents and get in line to 150 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: take these big jobs, Mel Tucker at LSU, the leading candidate, 151 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:53,560 Speaker 1: who I just told you, James Franklin leading candidate right 152 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 1: now at USC. They start assembling their staffs, they start 153 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 1: being distracted. Don't kid yourself. I've seen this a million 154 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 1: times in bowl games where a staff is leaving and 155 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 1: a underdog team that's totally focused blows them out. Watch 156 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 1: Michigan State being distracted because Mel Tucker is putting together 157 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 1: a staff potentially for LSU. He would take that job 158 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 1: if offered. Franklin, I'm told, wants the USC job, and 159 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 1: as I said earlier, both at press conferences this week 160 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 1: sounded completely distracted with really bad answers when asked about 161 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 1: the rumors of them leaving their respective schools. All right, 162 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 1: all right, chat here we go. Now. This last week 163 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,160 Speaker 1: was a terrible week in terms of odds. I went 164 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:41,440 Speaker 1: two and three. I stink. I'm okay with it. I'm 165 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 1: comfortable in my own skin. So let me start with 166 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:46,040 Speaker 1: this week. I like the Cowboys minus one and a 167 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:48,880 Speaker 1: half at the Vikings. One of the reasons is in 168 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:53,600 Speaker 1: standalone games, Kirk Cousins historically shrinks. I also think the 169 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:57,079 Speaker 1: calf injury for Dak Prescott is an advantage. The Cowboys 170 00:10:57,080 --> 00:10:59,360 Speaker 1: are at their best when they run the football about 171 00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 1: fifty five to fifty seven percent of the time. Because 172 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 1: of the calf injury, they will Zeke and Tony Pollard 173 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 1: will get lots of work. They're healthy upfront. I think 174 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 1: the Cowboys this is the only team that's covered the spread. 175 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 1: Why they're still undervalued. I like him to beat the 176 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 1: Vikings Sharper square, Melman square. And the reason you went 177 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:23,959 Speaker 1: to in three last week is because you probably and 178 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:25,599 Speaker 1: listen to me and everything I was saying, because I 179 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 1: didn't go too and three last week. In my best five, 180 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 1: I went three and two and three and two over 181 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 1: the course of the season. That's how you put money 182 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:36,440 Speaker 1: in your pocket. So this is a square pick, my friend. 183 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 1: It's a square like a a Quentin Tarantino movie. It 184 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 1: is square. The Vikings defense is top ten across a 185 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:51,439 Speaker 1: variety of metrics. You mentioned Dak Prescott and the calf injury. 186 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 1: Dak Prescott has not been pressured much this year. When 187 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: he is pressured, he is not a very good quarterback. 188 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 1: And the Vikings defense, while they haven't been forcing a 189 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 1: lot of turn was, they are able to pressure the 190 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 1: quarterback and do it effectively. That's going to be a 191 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 1: challenge for a guy who has a calf injury. What's 192 00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 1: most impressive though about the Vikings defenses their top ten 193 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:15,479 Speaker 1: in a variety of metrics without forcing a lot of turnovers, 194 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 1: which is really all the Cowboys have been doing on defense. 195 00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 1: And it's sort of made everything else shine a little 196 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 1: bit brighter. And so you're talking about a defense that 197 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 1: is good, fundamentally good, not getting the value against a 198 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 1: defense that is not so good, getting a lot of attention. 199 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 1: That's why the line, even though the Cowboys are the 200 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:39,040 Speaker 1: team getting the majority of the bets here, it's moved 201 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 1: in the opposite direction. You've got a reverse line move here, 202 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:43,080 Speaker 1: so the Vikings are the right side in this game. 203 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 1: A couple of the things you know some Mike Zimmer 204 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 1: stats against non division opponents since two thousand and three, 205 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 1: he's forty eight twenty six and once about sixty five. 206 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 1: He's also about sixty percent against the spread at home, 207 00:12:55,920 --> 00:13:00,280 Speaker 1: so most wise, guys, they've got this power rated head 208 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 1: closer to a coin flip. One other thing you have 209 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 1: to think about, Dallas is undefeated against the spread six 210 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 1: and oh right, this has only happened six other times 211 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 1: this late in the season in the past twenty years. 212 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 1: So you have to ask yourself, are the Cowboys due 213 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:18,440 Speaker 1: for an aggression with a defense that commits a lot 214 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 1: of that forces a lot of turnovers, but isn't that 215 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,839 Speaker 1: great otherwise? Or are they unbeatable? I'm going to take 216 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 1: a Vikings team at home that performs well with a 217 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:30,080 Speaker 1: good defense. Which one more thing. One more thing, I 218 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:33,840 Speaker 1: will say, look at the Vikings losses right now. Two 219 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 1: of them are against two teams that we now see 220 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 1: as being two of the better teams in the NFL, 221 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 1: the Cardinals and the Bengals, two games that they should 222 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:45,240 Speaker 1: have won. So it's a team that would they really 223 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 1: be two point underdogs or want to have point undogs 224 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 1: if they were five and one with wins over the 225 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 1: Bengals and the Cardinals, probably not take the Vikings. Hey, 226 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 1: the NFL season is approaching the halfway point. FANDUL Sports 227 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 1: books a little something different to offer for the Sunday 228 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 1: Night matchup between Dallas and Minnesota. Listen up. 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In Michigan, Tennessee 257 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 1: redline is one hundred and eighty nine seven eight nine, 258 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 1: or go to one one hundred gamble dot net in 259 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 1: West Virginia or called one eight hundred next step or 260 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 1: text next step to five three three four two in Arizona, 261 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 1: or visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut. All right, 262 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 1: I took the Patriots at a much better line than 263 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: it is now. I got the Patriots at plus five 264 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 1: and a half. It's now down to four and a half. 265 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 1: I'm told this is why I like the Patriots. So 266 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: the Chargers, if they didn't get a boatload of turnover, 267 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 1: don't be the Chiefs. The Chargers, if they don't get 268 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:07,560 Speaker 1: a PI call, lose to the Browns. The Chargers lost 269 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 1: to the Cowboys. Justin Herbert still really really young. Bill 270 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:17,680 Speaker 1: Belichick against quarterbacks with under twenty five starts is really 271 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 1: really good. And Mac Jones and his last ten quarters 272 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 1: has played excellent football. I got him at five and 273 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 1: a half. I'll take him at four and a half. 274 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 1: I think the Patriots to the side sharper square. This 275 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 1: is really interesting. You're on the sharp side, and you 276 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 1: can tell because of the way the number has moved. 277 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 1: It has been a sharp love since the number opened 278 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: at six. Bet down to five and a half, Bet 279 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 1: down to five, like you mentioned, down to four and 280 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 1: a half. Personally, I would make an executive decision here. 281 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 1: I'm going to be on the Chargers only because I 282 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 1: think you're buying mac Jones at the peak of the market. 283 00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 1: He just dropped fifty two on the New York Jets, right, 284 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 1: But also think about this, who is Mac Jones beaten? 285 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 1: He beat the Texans, he beat the Jets twice. He's 286 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:08,960 Speaker 1: in an offense that is designed to throw the ball 287 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 1: three to five yards down field. He's in an offense 288 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:15,080 Speaker 1: that is designed to rely on the rush. The Chargers 289 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 1: are coming off a bye. The Chargers are a team 290 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 1: that was relying on third and fourth down conversion and 291 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 1: by the way, third and long and fourth and long. 292 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:28,040 Speaker 1: So when they lost to the Ravens a couple of 293 00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 1: weeks ago, and we love the Ravens, we expected that 294 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 1: kind of regression to the mean, but it's still a 295 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 1: team that is going to go for it often, and 296 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,840 Speaker 1: the Patriots are much more conservative with Mac Jones than 297 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,600 Speaker 1: they were with Tom Brady. This is a game that 298 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 1: could very well come down to fourth downs, and if 299 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 1: it's going to come down to fourth towns, it's also 300 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:49,399 Speaker 1: going to come down to the Chargers going for it 301 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 1: to score more points when the number is getting much lower, 302 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 1: which is at four and a half, and I wouldn't 303 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 1: be surprised if it got to four. I like the 304 00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 1: Chargers of this number. I'm going to take the Jaguars 305 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:06,120 Speaker 1: plus four at the Seahawks. Trevor Lawrence and that offense 306 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 1: is actually playing pretty well. They're off of Buy Seattle 307 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 1: without Russell Wilson really doesn't do anything particularly well. They're 308 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: on a short week, the Jaguars probably four to five 309 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 1: extra days to prep. The weather looks like the cyclone 310 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:27,159 Speaker 1: bomb is gone. I think this is a lot of 311 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:29,959 Speaker 1: value here. I don't know if Jackson Bill can win, 312 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:35,160 Speaker 1: but I think the offensive side of the football they've 313 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:37,880 Speaker 1: done a really good job. I think they're highly competent. 314 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 1: I think they're running backs work. I think they're receivers work. 315 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:43,800 Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence has cut back in the turnovers. I get 316 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:46,240 Speaker 1: more than a field goal against a team with Gino Smith, 317 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:49,879 Speaker 1: I'm on the jag side. Sharper square, sharp as attack, 318 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 1: my friend. The Jacks can run the ball, right I 319 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 1: think the Jackson the Jags can run the ball right now. 320 00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 1: They've got the better quarterback. Seahawks without Russell Wilson are 321 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 1: a bottom five team. You're seeing the value of Russell 322 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:09,399 Speaker 1: Wilson in real time with Geno Smith. He should not 323 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 1: be favored against anyone. This is a this is a 324 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 1: This is betting on the helmet, which is what the 325 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 1: public is going to do. They're going to bet on 326 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 1: the Seahawks because the Jags historically are not going to 327 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:24,520 Speaker 1: be the team that you want to bet on. I 328 00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 1: probably will bet the Jags outright to win this game 329 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 1: because I don't think the Seahawks are a very good team. 330 00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:33,879 Speaker 1: I think they're in shambles. With Gino Smith, I completely agree. 331 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 1: The wise guys agree the Jags are the right side 332 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,359 Speaker 1: at three and a half at four, even if you 333 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,679 Speaker 1: want to bet him on the money line. All right now, 334 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,440 Speaker 1: I'm going to take a favorite Cleveland, even with case 335 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 1: Keenum or Baker at minus three and a half. Okay, 336 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,920 Speaker 1: the Steelers beat the Seahawks and Geno Smith and struggle 337 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:54,959 Speaker 1: to do it. This is the twenty seventh rated offense. 338 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:59,000 Speaker 1: Now consider that that's counting all the bad rookie quarterbacks. 339 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:02,920 Speaker 1: That's that's counting all the Teddy Bridgewaters. That's counting the 340 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 1: Daniel Jones who aren't rookies but not playing protacularly. Well. 341 00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 1: This is a terrible offense in a league which punishes 342 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:14,919 Speaker 1: bad offenses. And Cleveland with case Keenum is not as 343 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:18,160 Speaker 1: good as Cleveland with Baker Mayfield. But they're getting healthier. 344 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 1: I think we saw the Ernest Johnson. They can still 345 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 1: run the football. I think it's the best offensive line 346 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,359 Speaker 1: since the Cowboys and DAC. I've said that multiple times. 347 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 1: I think it's a great offensive line, not a good one. 348 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 1: I think Cleveland wins six seven points that favored I'll 349 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:39,960 Speaker 1: take Sharper square. It's kind of neither, meaning at three 350 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,879 Speaker 1: and a half, they kind of favor the Steelers. If 351 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:46,280 Speaker 1: it's at three, they kind of favor the Browns. The 352 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,200 Speaker 1: reason why they like the Steelers at three and a 353 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:53,400 Speaker 1: half by a scoche just a little bit it's because 354 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 1: of what the Steelers defense can do to pressure the 355 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:58,440 Speaker 1: quarterback and to be on As you mentioned, Baker Mayfield wise, 356 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,119 Speaker 1: guys don't care if it's Baker Mayfield case Keenum. They 357 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 1: really see so little difference between the two. Neither of 358 00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 1: them are very good under pressure. In fact, if you 359 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 1: look back to when case Keenom had that NFC career 360 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 1: NFC Championship Game career year with the Vikings, when Stefanski 361 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:19,160 Speaker 1: was his offensive coordinator, he was terrible under pressure that year. 362 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,480 Speaker 1: He just happened to be great every other element of 363 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 1: the game. Right. So you've got Mike Tomlin, who's in 364 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 1: one of his underdog Rob Ross spots, and you've got 365 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:34,680 Speaker 1: him being what thirty six fifteen and two against the 366 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:38,160 Speaker 1: spread beyond Week three since two thousand and three as 367 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,920 Speaker 1: a dog with a team of an equal record or 368 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:45,200 Speaker 1: better twenty eight seven and one eighty percent during his career. Again, 369 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:49,360 Speaker 1: that's when Ben Roethlisberger is at his peak. Now you're 370 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,119 Speaker 1: obviously kind of getting the ghost of Ben Roethlisberger, and 371 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:54,639 Speaker 1: you mentioned sort of the offensive troubles, but this is 372 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 1: still going to be a division brute battle. Those usually 373 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 1: come down to a field goal, So if you're getting 374 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,440 Speaker 1: half a point, then you're getting a little bit of 375 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:07,639 Speaker 1: value on the Steelers. I'm going to take the Colts 376 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:11,640 Speaker 1: minus two hosting the Titans. There's two things that jump 377 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:13,680 Speaker 1: out to me. This is a much more important game 378 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,119 Speaker 1: for the Colts. It's really the season. So if they 379 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:21,119 Speaker 1: lose to Tennessee for the second time, they lose the tiebreaker, 380 00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:25,160 Speaker 1: they're probably with their record, not a playoff team. There's 381 00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 1: too many good playoff wildcard possibilities. This is the season 382 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 1: for the Colts. And I think one of the things 383 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:36,720 Speaker 1: that's really impressive about Carson Wentz is not only the 384 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:40,359 Speaker 1: way he played in a monsoon after really bad first 385 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,399 Speaker 1: half turnovers, he played a really solid second half, but 386 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 1: it was the coaching. Unlike Shanahan with Garoppolo, they never 387 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:51,920 Speaker 1: lost confidence in him. They believe in him. He's throwing 388 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:56,639 Speaker 1: very few interceptions, the team is getting healthier. It is 389 00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,880 Speaker 1: a must win game. Tennessee's off back to back. Why 390 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,479 Speaker 1: oldly emotional wins. I swallow the two and take the Colts. 391 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 1: Sharper square. Most interesting betting game on the board. This 392 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 1: game opened Titans minus one and a half, meaning the 393 00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:18,480 Speaker 1: Colts were underdogs. The Cults are now favored by two points. 394 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:20,120 Speaker 1: Three and a half points is a pretty big swing, 395 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,320 Speaker 1: even if the way the way sort of professionals look 396 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,120 Speaker 1: at it, if you're going over zero, you're going over pick. 397 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 1: It's not as big of a move as if you say, 398 00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:32,680 Speaker 1: go from three to six and a half, obviously, because 399 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 1: there's the number of three, there's four, which is a 400 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:36,919 Speaker 1: key number, there's six, which is a key number now 401 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,680 Speaker 1: in football. But three and a half points, even over 402 00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 1: the zero, is a big, big move. This is a 403 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,200 Speaker 1: pros Joe's game, and you were on the side of 404 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 1: the pros. If you look at the betting tickets, the 405 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,679 Speaker 1: number of betting tickets, All of the betting tickets are 406 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 1: on the Titans because of what they did the Chiefs, 407 00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:55,560 Speaker 1: because of what they did to the Bills the week before. 408 00:23:55,840 --> 00:24:00,240 Speaker 1: But the money, the bigger bets, the money is coming 409 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 1: in on the Colts. That means the wise guys love 410 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:04,959 Speaker 1: the Colts here, and I think they're still gonna like them. 411 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 1: It's probably not going to move much more beyond two. 412 00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:09,960 Speaker 1: It might get to two and a half, but the Colts, 413 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:13,000 Speaker 1: they like the Colts. This is a much better defense. 414 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:17,680 Speaker 1: With you mentioned Carson Wentz, but also their offensive line 415 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,640 Speaker 1: is getting healthier. Jonathan Taylor looks like one of those 416 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:22,760 Speaker 1: running backs who's going to be like the top fantasy 417 00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:27,160 Speaker 1: pick next year. So all of the advantages going towards 418 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,480 Speaker 1: the Colts, along with what you just said, which might 419 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 1: be the most important thing. They lose this game, their 420 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,640 Speaker 1: season's done. This is a must win. And by the way, 421 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 1: I would say, if you're looking to bet the Colts 422 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:40,680 Speaker 1: in this game, you might as well take a little 423 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,560 Speaker 1: taste on the Colts to win the AFC South. We 424 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 1: had the same conversation I think last week about the Bengals, like, 425 00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,639 Speaker 1: if you like the Bengals to win last week against 426 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 1: the Ravens, and you got a bit the Bengals at 427 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 1: ten to one to win the AFC North, because now 428 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 1: that number has shrunk so much. Same thing with the Colts. 429 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,600 Speaker 1: They win this game and they're expected, they're expected possibility 430 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:05,399 Speaker 1: to win in their division springs considerably. Last week, I 431 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 1: did something I think you know I never do. I 432 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,720 Speaker 1: hate betting double digit favorites, but I took Tampa over Chicago. 433 00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:15,880 Speaker 1: I wouldn't touch the Rams Lions. I don't like big 434 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:19,680 Speaker 1: favorites at all. But last week the average margin was 435 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:25,280 Speaker 1: nineteen points. No seven point or larger underdog this year 436 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 1: has won a game. I've got some theories on what 437 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,280 Speaker 1: is happening at a macro level. I'll get to after 438 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,159 Speaker 1: this pick, but I'm going to take the Chiefs minus 439 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:40,359 Speaker 1: nine or ten against the Giants. Similarly, this narrative that 440 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:44,600 Speaker 1: the Chiefs are done Tennessee's a terrible matchup. And I've 441 00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:47,240 Speaker 1: always had a rule that very well coached, talented teams 442 00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:51,000 Speaker 1: that are humiliated. Remember a couple of weeks ago when 443 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,840 Speaker 1: the Rams humiliated the Giants, and the Giants came out 444 00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:55,359 Speaker 1: this week and actually played their best game of the 445 00:25:55,440 --> 00:26:01,280 Speaker 1: year against Carolina. Kansas City was humiliated. There. It's Monday night, 446 00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 1: extra day of prep. The offense is still fine, Daniel 447 00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 1: Jones is still mostly predictable. I know it's a big number, 448 00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:13,960 Speaker 1: but I'm seeing more and more of these Saturday numbers 449 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,120 Speaker 1: On Sunday. I'm going to take the Chiefs to cover 450 00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 1: Sharper square. Well, this is actually the one that we've 451 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 1: talked about this. I'll do the podcast The Favorites with 452 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,840 Speaker 1: Professional Better Simon Hunter, and he calls we do the 453 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,440 Speaker 1: Tuesday podcast, go through every Slate do Thursday podcast talk 454 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,600 Speaker 1: about some games we started zero in on. He'll always 455 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,040 Speaker 1: get a call from his wise guy buddies and they 456 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:38,960 Speaker 1: will say what they like and what they don't like. 457 00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,680 Speaker 1: This was one of the games. He and I both 458 00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:46,200 Speaker 1: like the Giants, they like the Chiefs. I think this 459 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:53,240 Speaker 1: game should probably be power rated around say six. I 460 00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 1: think that it's still a vestige of what the Chiefs 461 00:26:56,400 --> 00:27:00,240 Speaker 1: used to be, and I don't think that the Giants 462 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,080 Speaker 1: are getting the credit they deserve for playing well in 463 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:07,480 Speaker 1: certain spots. I think it's going to be really hard 464 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:11,199 Speaker 1: for the Chiefs to cover this number because their defense 465 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:14,560 Speaker 1: is just so so bad. And one of the things 466 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 1: that the Giants have been doing really, really well this year, 467 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 1: They've been running the RPO with Daniel Jones, who's deceptively 468 00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:26,760 Speaker 1: fast and makes really good decisions on the edge, and 469 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:28,720 Speaker 1: the Chiefs can't do anything on the edge. So the 470 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 1: Giants are going to be in positions to convert on 471 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:32,960 Speaker 1: third down. They're going to be in position to hold 472 00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:34,879 Speaker 1: the ball, They're going to be in a position to 473 00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:36,439 Speaker 1: move the ball late in the game if they are 474 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,440 Speaker 1: down by fourteen points for a backdoor cover. For me, 475 00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,119 Speaker 1: this is just too big of a number for the 476 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,960 Speaker 1: Chiefs in a situation where it's been a year since 477 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:51,280 Speaker 1: they were able to cover consistently. So I'm against you, Okay. 478 00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:55,240 Speaker 1: I always ask you this. The Atlanta game to me 479 00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:58,080 Speaker 1: was incredibly tasty, but I've been burned so many times. 480 00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:00,280 Speaker 1: I'm a little scared. Is there a game that I 481 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:02,920 Speaker 1: have not discussed that you have a strong feeling about 482 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:10,359 Speaker 1: for our audience? Love Love, Love the Saints. Love the 483 00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:14,359 Speaker 1: Saints this week against the Bucks numbers about five and 484 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,639 Speaker 1: a half. It's been going up. This is going to 485 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,399 Speaker 1: be another pro Joe game. The pros are going to 486 00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:22,240 Speaker 1: be on the Saints. The jos are going to be 487 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:28,320 Speaker 1: on the Bucks. The Saints defense is just really, really good, 488 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:32,960 Speaker 1: and we've seen Tom Brady struggle more on the road 489 00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,359 Speaker 1: we've seen with the Saints because of what they did 490 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 1: against the Seahawks. They're a little bit deflated from a 491 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:42,160 Speaker 1: primetime game. You mentioned the Bucks blowing out the Bears 492 00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,040 Speaker 1: as huge favorites when a lot of people thought the 493 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:46,640 Speaker 1: Bears would be able to cover in that game. That 494 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:48,680 Speaker 1: we didn't know yet what the Bears were going to be. 495 00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 1: So you're getting a huge amount of inflation on the bus. 496 00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,560 Speaker 1: You're getting deflation on the Saints. You've got a really 497 00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:58,040 Speaker 1: good defense. I think it's a great coaching matchup. I 498 00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:03,520 Speaker 1: like taking the Saints in this spot. So that's certainly 499 00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:06,200 Speaker 1: a game that I'm thinking quite a bit about. So 500 00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,800 Speaker 1: here's my callin Theory of the Week. So I had 501 00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 1: a question to Tom Brady this week. I was on 502 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:13,640 Speaker 1: some zoom call and there was like fifteen of us 503 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,880 Speaker 1: or twelve of us, you know, Jim Nance and Scott 504 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,760 Speaker 1: ben Pelt and Adam Schefter, those kind of guys, right, 505 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,760 Speaker 1: And then somehow I snuck on and I asked Tom, 506 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 1: if you could make one rule change in the NFL, 507 00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:29,480 Speaker 1: what would it be. What it could be, CBA offseason 508 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,200 Speaker 1: rule change, whatever, a radical change in the league. And 509 00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:35,520 Speaker 1: he said, Colin, my good friend. He didn't say that. 510 00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:40,920 Speaker 1: He said the NFL is becoming a skills competition that 511 00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:45,920 Speaker 1: if you have a good quarterback, it's virtually impossible to stop. 512 00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,720 Speaker 1: He goes my six hundred touchdown to Mike Evans. I 513 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,320 Speaker 1: would not have thrown that ball five years ago, but 514 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:54,360 Speaker 1: the safety can't hit anybody. And he said, and I 515 00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:56,320 Speaker 1: noticed this two weeks ago. I told this to you. 516 00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,120 Speaker 1: The best quarterback one thirteen of four games two weeks ago. 517 00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 1: If Josh Allen doesn't slip, it's fourteen and fourteen. There 518 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:07,280 Speaker 1: are fewer upsets in the league the margin of victory. 519 00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:11,200 Speaker 1: These lines now are often Saturday lines. The best quarterback 520 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 1: lead seven of eight divisions. The only exception is Mahomes. 521 00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,040 Speaker 1: And it's not like Herbert and Derek Carr are slouches 522 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:22,240 Speaker 1: that between the regulations and the lack of really good 523 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:26,000 Speaker 1: corner talent. Steve Kimes talk to me about this. The 524 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,280 Speaker 1: best quarterback now is just winning all the games, like 525 00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,960 Speaker 1: the Dallas Minnesota game. To me comes down to I 526 00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:34,680 Speaker 1: like to act more than Kirk Cousins. I'm having my 527 00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:38,080 Speaker 1: worst year ever betting. I hit fifty seven percent almost 528 00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:41,280 Speaker 1: every year for fifteen years. Last year's a COVID year. 529 00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:44,000 Speaker 1: No preseason. I threw it out. I have friends who 530 00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:47,680 Speaker 1: bet a lot they can't hit, and the I'm throwing 531 00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 1: a lot of stuff out I've done. I've never bet 532 00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 1: big numbers. My betting theory was always take competent quarterbacks 533 00:30:55,400 --> 00:31:01,080 Speaker 1: getting points. Well, competent's not good enough anymore. And Brady 534 00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:03,880 Speaker 1: went on to say when he came into the league, 535 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:07,480 Speaker 1: even ten years ago. He goes, you could win multiple ways. 536 00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:11,960 Speaker 1: You can't anymore. You can win one way. We have 537 00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:14,479 Speaker 1: a quarterback in weapons. That's how you win. He goes. 538 00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,320 Speaker 1: When I started with New England, when we played finesse teams, 539 00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:20,800 Speaker 1: we want every time, highly skilled teams, but Pittsburgh would 540 00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,200 Speaker 1: beat us. They were nearly as highly skilled, but they 541 00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:25,840 Speaker 1: were physical. Well, when you take the physical out of it, 542 00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 1: it's just a seven on seven skills competition. And he goes, 543 00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:32,360 Speaker 1: Even though I'm benefiting, I don't like where the league's headed. 544 00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 1: And so that's just kind of my theory on it. This. 545 00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 1: All the things I've always used aren't working. I mean, 546 00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:43,360 Speaker 1: I've never met thirty eight percent in my life. I 547 00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 1: was at fifty seven my life. I can't get anything 548 00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:50,120 Speaker 1: now your takeaway on this, dude, there's so much to 549 00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:52,960 Speaker 1: unpack there. I don't know if I want to talk 550 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:57,840 Speaker 1: about the Hall of Fame level of name dropping from 551 00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:03,960 Speaker 1: kids to vanpel to Chef, to Russians to Brady. I 552 00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:08,080 Speaker 1: can't believe like this call happened and I'm just hearing 553 00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:12,960 Speaker 1: about it now. That's amazing. The Saturday Lines, that's such 554 00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:16,720 Speaker 1: a great inside baseball reference to like these lines looking 555 00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:19,880 Speaker 1: like college football lines, because every Saturday you'll see a 556 00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,440 Speaker 1: twenty one point spread and in the NFL you'd never 557 00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:25,320 Speaker 1: see that. And last weekend we had the Cardinals as 558 00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:29,840 Speaker 1: twenty point favorites and they freaking covered, and you make 559 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:33,000 Speaker 1: an incredible point. I will bet every single weekend with 560 00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:36,400 Speaker 1: my best friend growing up a huge fan of yours, 561 00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:40,560 Speaker 1: by the way, and every year. The reason we bet 562 00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:42,360 Speaker 1: together is because we do it head to head. And 563 00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:47,920 Speaker 1: I'd crush him because I bet home dogs. I bet huge. 564 00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:51,000 Speaker 1: I bet dogs that were huge underdogs against teams that 565 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:54,320 Speaker 1: look like they were world beaters. And he would do 566 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,000 Speaker 1: what the public does. He'd bet favorites. He didn't didn't matter, 567 00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:58,760 Speaker 1: whatever team was better, that's what he was going to bet. 568 00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:03,680 Speaker 1: And this year, like everything's been turned upside down and 569 00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:06,760 Speaker 1: it's been really challenging. The books are getting killed, right 570 00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:11,120 Speaker 1: because the books love when the big underdogs win. And 571 00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:14,720 Speaker 1: last week, like you had the Lions and that was it. 572 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,560 Speaker 1: The Cardinals killed the Texans, the Bucks killed the Bears, 573 00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 1: the Packers, the Packers killed the Washington football team like 574 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:24,960 Speaker 1: and the Tennessee Titans were like the one team that 575 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,480 Speaker 1: the public was backing that wasn't a huge favorite and 576 00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:32,520 Speaker 1: they won. So it's been a really challenging year for 577 00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:34,600 Speaker 1: a lot of people to bet. I think what you're 578 00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:36,880 Speaker 1: talking about with the skills certainly has something to do 579 00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,479 Speaker 1: with it. It's incredibly frustrating to watch football right now. 580 00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:43,120 Speaker 1: Almost inevitably there is going to be a holding call 581 00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,520 Speaker 1: or a pass interference call in a series that is 582 00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:52,040 Speaker 1: going your direction. It's incredibly challenging to bet. I feel 583 00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,320 Speaker 1: terrible for you. I feel terrible for a lot of people. 584 00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:57,800 Speaker 1: The game is changing before our eyes and we have 585 00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:01,720 Speaker 1: to adjust on the fly. Like for instance, Buffalo minus 586 00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:04,000 Speaker 1: thirteen and a half hosting the Dolphins. Well, the Dolphins 587 00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:06,160 Speaker 1: are distracted with the two and nonsense. They have the 588 00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:08,719 Speaker 1: worst pass blocking line in the league. The Bills have 589 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,239 Speaker 1: the deepest defensive front in the league, where they rotate 590 00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:14,600 Speaker 1: eight to nine guys. I would have never considered that game, 591 00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:18,560 Speaker 1: and part of me is like, oh, yeah, a totally 592 00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,040 Speaker 1: focused Bills team is going to run them out of 593 00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:27,080 Speaker 1: the stadium. Yeah. I've had this conversation multiple times with 594 00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:30,160 Speaker 1: professional betters this week. I've said, who do you like 595 00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:32,839 Speaker 1: in this game? It's such a weird game, and they 596 00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:35,640 Speaker 1: were like, oh, I like the Bills. I'm like, really, 597 00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:39,160 Speaker 1: you like the Bills, and I'm like thirteen and a 598 00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:43,640 Speaker 1: half point favorite against a team that like needs a win. 599 00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:47,200 Speaker 1: It's overinflated. The Bills are going to be the public side, 600 00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:50,239 Speaker 1: and they're like, sometimes the publics are right. And also 601 00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:54,080 Speaker 1: the Bills average like winning the beating the Dolphins by 602 00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:58,160 Speaker 1: twenty points during the McDermott career during the McDermot era, 603 00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:03,360 Speaker 1: so like it's changing and sometimes the right side is 604 00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,560 Speaker 1: the public side and we all got to get used 605 00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:10,279 Speaker 1: to that. All right, I'm not even win this week. 606 00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:16,360 Speaker 1: It's not no, no, listen nothing. Marriage isn't easy, child 607 00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:20,879 Speaker 1: raising isn't easy. Winning NFL bets isn't easy. The only 608 00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:24,000 Speaker 1: thing that's easy is eating pie, and it's not good 609 00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:30,759 Speaker 1: for you. Everything that's easy you die earlier because of Seriously, 610 00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:34,560 Speaker 1: it's funny you say that about marriage. I was getting 611 00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,160 Speaker 1: Simon last week was like giving me a hard time 612 00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,520 Speaker 1: because I was waffling on I think, you know, betting 613 00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:42,719 Speaker 1: one of these games. He's like, oh, Chad, you know 614 00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:45,279 Speaker 1: you're middle aged dude living in Connecticut. You're so afraid 615 00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:49,160 Speaker 1: to take a risk. I'm like, dude, you're a single 616 00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:54,000 Speaker 1: guy who's a professional better that lives in New Jersey. Okay, 617 00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:58,160 Speaker 1: I got married, I had kids, I left ESPN a 618 00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,120 Speaker 1: start a business. All of those things are bigger risks 619 00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:05,040 Speaker 1: every single day than betting on a football game. Right, 620 00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:08,479 Speaker 1: Like you just mentioned marriage, marriage and having kids. There's 621 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:12,479 Speaker 1: nothing riskier than that, like tying your life to somebody else, 622 00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:15,960 Speaker 1: bringing kids into the world, the fear of the anxiety. 623 00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:19,600 Speaker 1: Those are risks. Man, betting on a football game is 624 00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:24,759 Speaker 1: not a risk. The only job better than mine is 625 00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:27,799 Speaker 1: a professional better. I always had this theory. I'm gonna 626 00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:30,400 Speaker 1: throw this at you. So I watched the documentary on 627 00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:32,480 Speaker 1: sports gamblers a couple of years ago, and it was 628 00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:36,480 Speaker 1: so sad these guys that bet baseball. You have to 629 00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:40,719 Speaker 1: watch the games. It's terrible. I would just bet the 630 00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:43,520 Speaker 1: NFL because you can do the biggest bets. The books 631 00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:46,279 Speaker 1: allow the biggest bets with football because the majority of 632 00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:48,360 Speaker 1: people are always protected because so many people bet it, 633 00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:51,760 Speaker 1: and I only have to watch mostly Sunday and Monday 634 00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:54,759 Speaker 1: football and I can have a life. A lot of 635 00:36:54,840 --> 00:37:00,239 Speaker 1: degenerate gamblers just are not time efficient. If you're betting baseball, 636 00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:04,080 Speaker 1: you're not having sex. That's the way I look at it, 637 00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:07,399 Speaker 1: you're literally on a Tuesday night watching a Red's Brewers game. 638 00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:09,920 Speaker 1: That is no way to live. So, you know, a 639 00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:13,560 Speaker 1: lot of professional gamblers take don't even say their name, 640 00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:18,360 Speaker 1: take the five Smartest, don't most of them bet NFL football. 641 00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:22,120 Speaker 1: It's a better quality of life. They bet everything though, 642 00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:25,560 Speaker 1: That's the difference. If I think about if I think 643 00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:29,279 Speaker 1: about the professional betters, I know a lot of them 644 00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:39,080 Speaker 1: don't have great personal relationships. They don't have or they 645 00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:44,640 Speaker 1: got married very late in life, or they're watching baseball, 646 00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:48,840 Speaker 1: they're watching every college football game. Oh, they're betting a 647 00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:51,759 Speaker 1: lot of college basketball. You know, I got into this. 648 00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:54,719 Speaker 1: I got into this because twenty years ago I wrote 649 00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:56,600 Speaker 1: this book called The Odds about these guys who bet 650 00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:58,320 Speaker 1: on sports for a living. And I was in Vegas 651 00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:02,320 Speaker 1: for like six months and one of the guys I tracked, 652 00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:07,080 Speaker 1: this guy named Alan Boston, who is why right right? So, 653 00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:09,960 Speaker 1: like he's one of the best at the time, he 654 00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:13,800 Speaker 1: was the best college basketball better in the world. Like 655 00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,839 Speaker 1: I would sit in his house on a Saturday. He's 656 00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:19,640 Speaker 1: betting hundreds of thousands of dollars on a game. And 657 00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:22,680 Speaker 1: when a game's over one win or lose. He's picking 658 00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:24,960 Speaker 1: up the phone, he's putting it back in play. Right. 659 00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:30,719 Speaker 1: It is a and it is an exhausting life. The 660 00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:34,040 Speaker 1: very end of my book, he's going to the grocery store. 661 00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:36,680 Speaker 1: I'm like, what's on your list? He goes, I'm getting this, 662 00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:39,279 Speaker 1: I'm getting this, I'm getting this. And then he's like, oh, 663 00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:41,319 Speaker 1: hold on, he wrote, he rests down one more thing. 664 00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:43,359 Speaker 1: I go, what'd you add? He goes, get a life 665 00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:48,160 Speaker 1: like it's just a hard, hard life. If you want 666 00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:52,680 Speaker 1: to be a professional better Yeah, no, Alan Boston, I 667 00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:55,839 Speaker 1: mean that guy bets Lee High basketball. Oh my dude, 668 00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,200 Speaker 1: not only does he bet Lee High basketball, he could 669 00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:01,160 Speaker 1: give you a history of Lee High basketball and tell 670 00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:03,160 Speaker 1: you why Lee High basketball should, in theory, be better 671 00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:06,720 Speaker 1: than Duke basketball. Like, forget about it. It's every single 672 00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:09,479 Speaker 1: game if there's a college basketball team. But look, that's 673 00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:13,200 Speaker 1: why professional betters love college basketball is because there are 674 00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:16,240 Speaker 1: so many games, there are so many teams. It starts 675 00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:19,520 Speaker 1: in the fall when bookmakers are still caught up in 676 00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:21,839 Speaker 1: college football. They're still caught up in the NFL, they're 677 00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:25,160 Speaker 1: still caught up in the NBA, putting up like what 678 00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:29,160 Speaker 1: they call the sort of the small school lines back 679 00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:31,879 Speaker 1: in the day, you know, only a few places would 680 00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:34,200 Speaker 1: do that, and to get some kind of limit down 681 00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:36,279 Speaker 1: whether you can get two dimes three dimes, which is 682 00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:38,800 Speaker 1: like two or three thousand dollars. A lot of bookmakers 683 00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:41,040 Speaker 1: wouldn't do that. And because there's so many games, it's 684 00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:42,960 Speaker 1: so hard to keep track of it. But college basketball 685 00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:45,200 Speaker 1: is for a long time was where betters made their money. 686 00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:50,040 Speaker 1: Just an education every week. Good to see anybody do 687 00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:52,800 Speaker 1: what I can brother, listen, I can't be invited to 688 00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:56,680 Speaker 1: calls with Tom Brady. What was going on was this 689 00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,879 Speaker 1: some kind of like hey, let's get all the cool 690 00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:03,759 Speaker 1: influential people together and we're going to figure out how 691 00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,440 Speaker 1: to fix the NFL, or we're going to figure out 692 00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:09,400 Speaker 1: like what's the next cool NFT that we're all going 693 00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:11,200 Speaker 1: to put out. What is the purpose of this call? 694 00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:13,880 Speaker 1: Jim Gray contacted me a week ago and say, hey, 695 00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:16,759 Speaker 1: you're one of the twelve people we want on this thing. 696 00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:18,680 Speaker 1: And then I said, yeah, okay, I didn't even know 697 00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:20,680 Speaker 1: who was going to show up, and it was you 698 00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:23,719 Speaker 1: know Van pelt Nance, you know, like like Schefter. It 699 00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:26,239 Speaker 1: was a bunch of people, Steve Young and I was 700 00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:28,000 Speaker 1: on it. So I was, you know, obviously humbled to 701 00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:30,120 Speaker 1: be on that thing. So I thought all weekend about 702 00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:31,719 Speaker 1: the question I was going to ask him. I went 703 00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:33,879 Speaker 1: into the weekend with one question, thought it was two pith. 704 00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,400 Speaker 1: He came out of the weekend asked another, and he 705 00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:37,880 Speaker 1: gave a great answer. He gave a four minute and 706 00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:41,360 Speaker 1: forty eight second answer. He gave a great answer. What 707 00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:44,080 Speaker 1: was the other question you were going to ask? The 708 00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:47,520 Speaker 1: first question was you grew up idolizing Joe Montana. He 709 00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:51,080 Speaker 1: had a very funny moment in a Super Bowl against 710 00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:53,239 Speaker 1: the Bengals where he spotted John Candy in the end 711 00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:56,400 Speaker 1: zone and he came back, goes, hey, everybody, it's John Candy, 712 00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:59,239 Speaker 1: And I said, when you've kind of mastered the art 713 00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:02,640 Speaker 1: of quarterback, Gronk is one of your best friends and 714 00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:05,319 Speaker 1: one of the funniest guys. You and Edelman, are there 715 00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:08,400 Speaker 1: moments for you, Tom where the rigidity of the position, 716 00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:11,080 Speaker 1: the ease of it now, especially now in the skills 717 00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:14,640 Speaker 1: competition era, that you not that your mind wanders, but 718 00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:19,400 Speaker 1: you have sort of an ethereal jokey moment that it's 719 00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:22,080 Speaker 1: a lighter move in that huddle and more things are 720 00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,640 Speaker 1: ad libbed than we would believe. My concern was he 721 00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:28,800 Speaker 1: would say no, and I would be like, okay. So 722 00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:33,680 Speaker 1: I thought, if I made Tom give me something which 723 00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:38,000 Speaker 1: was come up with one change in football, if the 724 00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:41,640 Speaker 1: owners or the commissioner allowed you that dignity and he 725 00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:45,280 Speaker 1: gave as you would imagine a very conscientious Tom Brady answer. 726 00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:49,400 Speaker 1: Those are the moments I actually find those when you 727 00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:55,680 Speaker 1: can get a thoughtful answer about something that these players 728 00:41:56,000 --> 00:42:00,920 Speaker 1: love so much, that is so inside the game they are, 729 00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:04,399 Speaker 1: They're just fonts of knowledge. There were years and years 730 00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:06,200 Speaker 1: ago when I first got out of college, I started 731 00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:10,279 Speaker 1: working in Sports Illustrated and we went to Dallas and 732 00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:14,400 Speaker 1: we did a entire issue about the Cowboys. It was 733 00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:16,680 Speaker 1: me and a guy named Rick Tellender, who was a 734 00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:19,680 Speaker 1: writer a SI at the time. And the Cowboys are great, 735 00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:22,840 Speaker 1: right but even in the mid nineties. They give you 736 00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,279 Speaker 1: whatever you need. Their pr staff is amazing, and they 737 00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:27,719 Speaker 1: let you go anywhere. They're not following you, they're not 738 00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:30,040 Speaker 1: asking you what's going on. They give you free reign 739 00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:32,480 Speaker 1: of back then what was Valley Ranch. So I'm in 740 00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:35,960 Speaker 1: the locker room, Troy Achman is there. I'm like twenty 741 00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:38,600 Speaker 1: two years old, Like I haven't spoken to tray Aman 742 00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:42,120 Speaker 1: since that day, but it was right when the league 743 00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:45,040 Speaker 1: had changed the rules on the balls you can use 744 00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:47,319 Speaker 1: and how much you can work them in, and tray 745 00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:50,000 Speaker 1: Aman is like pulling a bag of footballing footballs out 746 00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:54,480 Speaker 1: of a bag and he is just blistered about not 747 00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:56,880 Speaker 1: being able to work them in, about these new rules, 748 00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:01,080 Speaker 1: And it was such an inside moment into how quarterbacks 749 00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:03,320 Speaker 1: think about the game and how they feel about rules 750 00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:05,160 Speaker 1: in the league, and that they aren't just these robots 751 00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:06,799 Speaker 1: who go out, you roll the ball, out, you play. 752 00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:09,799 Speaker 1: They've got so many theories on what could work better, 753 00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:12,040 Speaker 1: or what is disadvantage to them, or what is an 754 00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:17,040 Speaker 1: advantage to them. I love that stuff, love it? Yeah, 755 00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:21,040 Speaker 1: so do I. Yeah. One of the things I've always 756 00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:24,320 Speaker 1: loved about football and turns me off about baseball is 757 00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:27,359 Speaker 1: that baseball is so reluctant to change. And football will 758 00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:30,600 Speaker 1: change a rule for the Super Bowl. I mean literally, 759 00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:33,120 Speaker 1: the Patriot Eagles Super Bowl. They're like, all right, that 760 00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:36,319 Speaker 1: juggling stuff, those were catches. We're just changing a rule. 761 00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:40,399 Speaker 1: And the NFL has always seen themselves, even as they've 762 00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:45,160 Speaker 1: grown in popularity as an underdog chasing baseball. Baseball is 763 00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:48,320 Speaker 1: now a massive underdog and still views itself as the 764 00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:51,680 Speaker 1: leader in the clubhouse and is very rigid and reticent 765 00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:54,280 Speaker 1: to change. And that's one of the reasons I'm always 766 00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:57,360 Speaker 1: so turned onto football. They're constantly willing to adapt for 767 00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:02,080 Speaker 1: a better television product, and baseball, Little League Baseball figured 768 00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:06,879 Speaker 1: out the replay before the Bigs. That just drives me nuts. Well, 769 00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:08,560 Speaker 1: you know, football is in the most popular sport in 770 00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:12,120 Speaker 1: the country because of the point spread, and baseball could 771 00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:14,000 Speaker 1: never figure out the point spread. The point spread was 772 00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:18,080 Speaker 1: invented in the nineteen forties by a guy named Charles 773 00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:22,919 Speaker 1: McNeil who was a trader, an options trader, commodities trader 774 00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:28,160 Speaker 1: in Chicago. Math genius was a huge better invented the 775 00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:31,719 Speaker 1: point spread and started using it at a local book 776 00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:35,719 Speaker 1: like he was a bookmaker, and then he started betting 777 00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:39,600 Speaker 1: it and became this incredibly popular way to bet on football. 778 00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:41,640 Speaker 1: You couldn't do it in baseball. It only worked because 779 00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:45,000 Speaker 1: of the scoring format for football. But you can mark 780 00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:49,320 Speaker 1: the trajectory of the NFL's popularity and the decline a 781 00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:52,120 Speaker 1: Major League Baseball to the invention of the point spread 782 00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:57,640 Speaker 1: in the late nineteen forties. Mind blown or television either way, 783 00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:00,320 Speaker 1: but I'm going with the point spread. I like that 784 00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:07,040 Speaker 1: better too, all right, buddy, goin seeing my friend The 785 00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:12,880 Speaker 1: Volume YouTube channel, Twitter at the Volume, Sports, Instagram, rate review, subscribe, 786 00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:29,000 Speaker 1: good stuff talk soon The Volume