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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Good morning, I'm John

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Speaker 1: Tucker and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're

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Speaker 1: following today, and.

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Speaker 2: Karen the ryce and futures. And that record for gold

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Speaker 2: comes as we kick off the second quarter. So also

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Speaker 2: the first time. Markets are reacting to two important events

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Speaker 2: on Friday when they were closed for the Good Friday holiday. First,

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Speaker 2: the Fed's preferred gauge of underflying inflation cool last month

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Speaker 2: after an even larger increase than previously reported in January.

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Speaker 2: And then j Pal spoke during a San Francisco Fed

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Speaker 2: Bank event the Fed she are reacting to the PCEE

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Speaker 2: deflator report and reiterated his outlook on rate cuts.

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Speaker 3: February is lower, but it's not as low as most

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Speaker 3: of the good readings we got in the second half

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Speaker 3: of last year. But it's definitely more along the lines

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Speaker 3: of what we want to see. So what we said

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Speaker 3: is that we don't see it as likely to be

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Speaker 3: appropriate that we would begin to reduce interest rates until

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Speaker 3: the Committee, the Feller Open Market Committee is confident that

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Speaker 3: inflation is moving down to two percent on a sustained basis.

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Speaker 2: Fed cheer Jay pounces. He also wants to shrink the

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Speaker 2: balance sheet more without disruption.

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Speaker 1: Well John reactions still pouring into Friday's two major events.

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Speaker 1: Sarah House, as senior economist at Wells.

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Speaker 4: Fargo, ultimately we heard that right now Chair Pal doesn't

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Speaker 4: feel like they need to be in a hurry with

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Speaker 4: cutting rates. It is a big decision, as he espoused

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Speaker 4: multiple times throughout the conversation. But what we heard time

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Speaker 4: and again was that he views the economy as strong

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Speaker 4: right now, and particularly the labor market being in a

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Speaker 4: good place, which does seem to afford them some time

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Speaker 4: to see if inflation can come down a bit further

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Speaker 4: in the months ahead.

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Speaker 1: Well As Fargo's senior economist Sarah House, does expect rate

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Speaker 1: cuts to begin in June.

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Speaker 2: The next big economic report for the investors Karen comes

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Speaker 2: on Friday. That's with the jobs report for the month

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Speaker 2: of March, and according to at Bloomberg survey of economists,

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Speaker 2: payrolls are seen increasing by at least two hundred thousand,

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Speaker 2: four or fourth straight month. The average hourly earnings are

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Speaker 2: projected to climb four point one percent from the same

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Speaker 2: month last year, and that's the smallest anel advance since

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Speaker 2: mid twenty twenty one oh.

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Speaker 1: We want to turn to politics overseas now John. In

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Speaker 1: an historic defeat for Turkish President Rejip Tayev Erdowan, Turkey

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Speaker 1: state broadcaster TRT is reporting the country's main opposition party

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Speaker 1: defeated the Airdiwan's AK party in municipal elections for the

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Speaker 1: first time since he took power more than two decades ago.

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Speaker 1: Airediwan told supporters his administration will continue addressing Turkey's pressing

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Speaker 1: economic issues.

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Speaker 5: He has we will focus more on urgent issues of

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Speaker 5: our country, especially the revival of the earthquake zone and

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Speaker 5: solving our economic problems.

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Speaker 1: And Turkish President Erdiwan said in March that this election

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Speaker 1: would be his final, after he was elected to a

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Speaker 1: third presidential term last year. Airdiwan has also said this

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Speaker 1: result won't amper his economic plans. The Turkish president has

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Speaker 1: faced backlash from voters as the country experiences rampant inflation

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Speaker 1: and the highest borrowing costs since he swept power two

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Speaker 1: decades ago. He's allowed Turkey's central Bank to raise the

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Speaker 1: key interest rate to fifty percent, but has failed to

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Speaker 1: reverse the trajectory of price increases and has lowered consumer sentiment.

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Speaker 1: Dealira weakening and early trading.

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Speaker 2: Well back here in the US, when Congress comes back

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Speaker 2: from Easter break, aid for Ukraine is on the top

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Speaker 2: of the to do list. Let's get more from Bloomberg's

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Speaker 2: Ed Baxter.

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Speaker 6: High Speaker Mike Johnson has promised to bring it to

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Speaker 6: the floor and Congress from Mike Turner on CBS has

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Speaker 6: heard on Bloomberg says he expects it to move quickly.

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Speaker 7: The Speaker has made very clear statements that when we

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Speaker 7: get back, it's the next top agenda after having just

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Speaker 7: passed all the bills that fund the federal government. I

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Speaker 7: believe this is going to have overwhelming support in Congress,

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Speaker 7: and we'll put a bill on the President's desk.

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Speaker 6: Johnson could very well face an oust move, as it

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Speaker 6: has already been introduced by congress Wan Marjorie Taylor. Green

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Speaker 6: Democrats have said they would likely save Johnson if Ukraine

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Speaker 6: aid passes at Baxter Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: Radio Right, and thanks now to the latest on the

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Speaker 1: bridge collapse in Baltimore. Ports along the East Coast are

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Speaker 1: modifying their operations to take in more cargo. Economists say

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Speaker 1: they broadly expect the fallout from the disaster to be

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Speaker 1: contained as other ports work longer hours to take up

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Speaker 1: the slack. Despite that, Transportation Secretary Peat Buddha Judge says

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Speaker 1: there's no timeline yet for reopening the Baltimore Channel.

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Speaker 8: It's not just that you have to remove the wreckage,

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Speaker 8: it's that you have to do it in a way

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Speaker 8: that doesn't cause portions of the bridge that are there

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Speaker 8: across the water to shift. They've been under a lot

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Speaker 8: of compression and tension. They could behave almost like a

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Speaker 8: spring if they are not expertly managed.

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Speaker 1: Transportation Secretary peat Buddha Judge says the reopening the reopening

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Speaker 1: of the ports safely is a major priority. He made

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Speaker 1: the comments on CBS's Face the Nation. You can catch

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Speaker 1: the program's Sunday afternoons right here on Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: All right, thanks Karen. A big data breach has been

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Speaker 2: discovered at one of the country's largest telephone operators. We

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Speaker 2: get details in this report from Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger.

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Speaker 5: At and T says personal data from about seventy three

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Speaker 5: million current and past account holders was leaked onto the darkweb.

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Speaker 5: The company says the data, leaked about two weeks ago,

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Speaker 5: includes personal information such as social security numbers and appears

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Speaker 5: to be from twenty nineteen or earlier. The source of

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Speaker 5: the data is still being investigated, and it is not

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Speaker 5: known whether it came from the company or a vendor.

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Speaker 5: AT and T says it has reset the pass codes

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Speaker 5: of about seven point six million account holders. AT and

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Speaker 5: T is the nation's third largest retail wireless carrier, behind

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Speaker 5: Verizon and T Mobile. In February, the company experienced a

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Speaker 5: widespread outage that took hours to resolve, prompting an investigation

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Speaker 5: by the federal government. Jeff Bellinger Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Jeff as sure as of AT and T down

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Speaker 2: almost two percent in early training.

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Speaker 1: On Asia, John A private measure of China's manufacturing expanded

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Speaker 1: in March, and Bloomberg's Brian Curtis has more from Hong Kong.

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Speaker 9: The Taishien Manufacturing PMI rose to fifty one point one,

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Speaker 9: the highest in more than a year. That was up

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Speaker 9: from fifty point nine in February, and it adds to

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Speaker 9: signals that the industrial side of the economy is stabilizing.

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Speaker 9: The official PMI released on Sunday also showed activity expanding

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Speaker 9: last month. That was for the first time since September,

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Speaker 9: but home sales dragged the value of sales dropping forty

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Speaker 9: six percent from a year earlier, and that's keeping consumers

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Speaker 9: at bay in Hong Kong. Brian Curtis, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: All right, Brian, thank you. It it's time now for

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Speaker 1: a look at some of the other stories making news

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Speaker 1: in New York and around the world, and for that

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Speaker 1: were joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good morning, Good.

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Speaker 10: Morning, Karen. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin det Yahoo is undergoing

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Speaker 10: surgery for hernia as anger mounts against his failure to

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Speaker 10: bring home the hostage is still held by Hamas families

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Speaker 10: of the hostages joined thousands who demonstrated in Jerusalem demanding

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Speaker 10: a deal to return them home. Horns blared in the

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Speaker 10: largest demonstration seen so far held in Jerusalem since the

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Speaker 10: war began. About one hundred thousand people were in the streets,

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Speaker 10: with anti government protesters and many families of the hostages

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Speaker 10: now joining forces. Here in the US, the unfolding human

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Speaker 10: catastrophe in Gaza is dividing the Democratic Party. The Biden

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Speaker 10: administration has moved in recent weeks to fulfill agreements to

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Speaker 10: ship more fighter jets and two thousand pound bombs to

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Speaker 10: Israel while still waiting for assurances from NET and Yahoo

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Speaker 10: not to invade Rafa inside Gaza and to increase aid shipments. However,

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Speaker 10: Maryland Democratic Senator Chris van Holland criticizes the way the

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Speaker 10: Biden administration is handling Israel's war in Gaza.

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Speaker 8: Net Yahoo continues to essentially give the finger to the

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Speaker 8: President the United States, and we're sending more bombs.

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Speaker 1: That doesn't make sense.

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Speaker 10: Senator Van Holland spoke on ABC's This Week Heard Sundays

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Speaker 10: on Bloomberg. Pope Francis, recovering from respiratory problems, led about

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Speaker 10: sixty thousand people in Easter celebrations to make a strong

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Speaker 10: appeal for a ceasefire in Gaza and a prisoner swap

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Speaker 10: between Russia and Ukraine. Francis presided over Easter Sunday Mass

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Speaker 10: in Saint Peter's Square Church. Services and masses were held

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Speaker 10: across Baltimore on Easter Sunday to remember those who died

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Speaker 10: in the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. Reverend

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Speaker 10: Akoe Walker at Sacred Heart of Jesus Church remember the

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Speaker 10: six construction crew workers who were on the bridge and

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Speaker 10: presumed dead.

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Speaker 8: Yes, we can rebuild a bridge, but we also have

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Speaker 8: to look at the way in which migrant workers are.

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Speaker 9: Treated on how best we can improve their situation.

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Speaker 11: As they come to the United States of America to

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Speaker 11: make the United States of America better.

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Speaker 5: Please.

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Speaker 10: Two other workers survived New York. A fire in a

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Speaker 10: Brooklyn church during Easter Sunday services prompted dozens of worshippers

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Speaker 10: to flee the burning building. About one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 10: people were worshiping in Our Lady of the Rosary of

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Speaker 10: Pompeii when smoke billowed in from a fire in the

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Speaker 10: rectory attached to the rear of the church. This man

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Speaker 10: was one of the worshippers.

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Speaker 9: Everything to go black, so everybody get up, get get up,

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Speaker 9: so everybody get all fed, running and everybody.

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Speaker 10: A closed door had kept the fire from spreading from

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Speaker 10: the rectory into the church itself. Fortunately there were no

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Speaker 10: serious injuries. Global News twenty four hours a day and

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Speaker 10: whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News Now Michael

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Speaker 10: Barr and this is Bloomberg Karen.

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Speaker 1: Sorry, Michael Barr, thank you time now for the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Sports Update, brought to you by Tri State Audi. Here's

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Speaker 1: John stash hour, John.

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Speaker 11: Thanks Karon and CAA tournament. Four teams left headed next

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Speaker 11: week into Phoenix Peril one seeds, You Come and Produe

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Speaker 11: a four seed in Alabama and Cinderella and S an

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Speaker 11: eleven seed, a team that finished in tenth place in

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Speaker 11: the ACC surprisingly won the tournament. That's how they got

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Speaker 11: an NCAA invite, and they wins have continued. The wolf

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Speaker 11: Pack upset Duke, just as they did at the ACC

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Speaker 11: tourny seventy six sixty four, DJ burns twenty nine points.

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Speaker 11: Per Due got forty from its big man Zachi Eed.

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Speaker 11: He got by Tennessee seventy two to sixty six. The

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Speaker 11: Bals got thirty seven in defeat. From there, All American

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Speaker 11: Dalton connect NC State women also going to the final

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Speaker 11: four and upset of their own, beating top seed in Texas,

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Speaker 11: South Carolina for the second UNI row will bring a

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Speaker 11: thirty six to ohero record to the Final four. At

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Speaker 11: the Guard nixt to a ten point lead to the

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Speaker 11: fourth quarter, lost by one to Oklahoma City, won thirteen

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Speaker 11: one to twelve. Shay gilgis Alexander who won it for

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Speaker 11: the thunder, scoring with under two seconds left at Barkley's

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Speaker 11: forty points for thirty nine year old Lebron James. Lakers

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Speaker 11: beat the Nets one sixteen, one oh four. The Yankees

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Speaker 11: are four to oh. It's only the fourth time in

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Speaker 11: seventy four years they have started a season like that.

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Speaker 11: Juan Soto big part in all four wins in Houston.

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Speaker 11: He was at the plate with two outs of the

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Speaker 11: ninth to eight of a tie game.

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Speaker 12: There goes tours?

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Speaker 5: The third fish line pasent whatlve field? How do I

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Speaker 5: like that? Taurus scores? The Yankees take a four to

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Speaker 5: three lead. Oh is he good?

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Speaker 1: Ho? No?

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Speaker 5: We love Sodo.

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Speaker 11: Wf an what's not to love? Soto hitting five twenty nine.

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Speaker 11: The Mets first zero and three start in a decade

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Speaker 11: in Milwaukee. One again at City Field, four to one,

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Speaker 11: red Sox one in Seattle, Nationals gave up three in

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Speaker 11: the ninth, lost in Cincinnati. Yonick Center won the tennis

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Speaker 11: in Miami. John stash Thatward Bloomberg Sports Karen.

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Speaker 1: John, all right, John, thank you, And futures are at

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Speaker 1: rising this morning, S and P. Futures up a third

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Speaker 1: of up percent or twenty points down. Futures up three

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Speaker 1: tenths of up percent or one hundred eleven points, Nasdaq

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Speaker 1: futures up half percent or one hundred points, and the

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Speaker 1: ten year Treasury up three thirty seconds. They yelled four

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Speaker 1: point one eight percent.

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Speaker 12: Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,

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Speaker 12: and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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Speaker 12: Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 2: And it's fine fourteen Wall Street. This morning marks the

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Speaker 2: first day of trading since we received the fans preferred

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Speaker 2: gauge of underlying inflation, that's the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index.

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Speaker 2: We also got comments from Jay Powell on Friday. Right now,

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Speaker 2: let's get you set up for the trading day, and

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Speaker 2: I'm happy to say we're joined in studio by Lori Calvacina,

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Speaker 2: ahead of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Market. It's

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Speaker 2: pleasure to see you. Thanks for being with us, Thanks

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Speaker 2: for having me Core PCE cooled. I guess that's the takeaway.

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Speaker 2: Is this what traders have been waiting for?

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Speaker 13: So Look, I don't think there are any major surprises

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Speaker 13: here from my end. I mean, we've generally been looking

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Speaker 13: for a moderation and inflation At RBC, our guys cautioned

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Speaker 13: me very early, you know, in the year, late last year,

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Speaker 13: that there are going to be some bumps in the road.

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Speaker 13: And for now the thesis still seems to be intact,

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Speaker 13: and our guys still think we're headed for June.

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Speaker 2: Cuts, June cuts and what after that? How many cuts

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Speaker 2: this year?

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Speaker 13: So we originally had been looking for five as a house.

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Speaker 13: They've dialed it down now to three. I will say,

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Speaker 13: our guys were never in the March camp, so I

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Speaker 13: think we've had less distance to travel to get to

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Speaker 13: where our current assumptions are. So we haven't really been

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Speaker 13: you know, overly, you know, kind of negative reacting to

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Speaker 13: some of the negative adjustments that have happened, kind of

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Speaker 13: the dialing down of expectations. But they think the FED

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Speaker 13: wants to get started and then we'll go slow.

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Speaker 2: The FED has a gigantic balance sheet. They're starting to

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Speaker 2: trim it. Should we we be worried about that? Will

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Speaker 2: that have much of an impact in markets? Or can

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Speaker 2: they handle that in such a way that it's going

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Speaker 2: to have a minimal impact?

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Speaker 13: You know, It's funny. I'm a little bit of a

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Speaker 13: data nerd, and we had done some analysis trying like

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Speaker 13: that lot. I know, I know, it's kind of my thing,

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Speaker 13: but you know, there had been a period of time

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Speaker 13: post GFC where the FED balance sheet really seemed to

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Speaker 13: be driving the pe multiple in the S and P

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Speaker 13: five hundred that really broke down last year. I think

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Speaker 13: the FED has done a good job of sort of pushing,

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Speaker 13: you know, the balance sheet to sort of a side.

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Speaker 13: From an equity market perspective, it's just not as in

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Speaker 13: focus and as much of a driver as.

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Speaker 2: It used to be and to the quarter much in

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Speaker 2: terms of rebalancing and portfolios and how how is that

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Speaker 2: impacting things?

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Speaker 12: So look, I.

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Speaker 13: Think at the end of the quarter, you know, we

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Speaker 13: saw some funny moves.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 13: From my perspective, what I thought was interesting was that

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Speaker 13: the Rustle two thousand had a strong finish, and so

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Speaker 13: the idea that we've really been looking for signs that

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Speaker 13: the leadership rotation in the market is going to get underway.

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Speaker 13: To me, that was the most sort of interesting kind

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Speaker 13: of short term stuff we saw at the end of

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Speaker 13: the quarter. And I think this market is itching to rotate.

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Speaker 13: Anything I put out on the mag seven, I feel

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Speaker 13: like that's the chart everybody looks for. I think there's

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Speaker 13: a lot of you know, sort of concern that we've

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Speaker 13: had some false starts on that leadership rotation, But I

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Speaker 13: think investors are ready to do something different. So that's

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Speaker 13: what I'd be looking for going leadership rotation.

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Speaker 2: That's a healthy sign for.

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Speaker 13: Marcus, I think it is. I think we're due for

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Speaker 13: one big catch up trade in the market from you know,

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Speaker 13: kind of everything outside of the MAG seven, whether it's

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Speaker 13: small cap, whether it's you know, kind of the non

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Speaker 13: tech sectors. If you look at the PE and the

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Speaker 13: market X the MAG seven, it's trading around sixteen times.

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Speaker 13: The MAG seven's been trading between twenty seven and twenty

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Speaker 13: eight times on a forward PE and kind of a

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Speaker 13: round pas peak. So I think there's room for the

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Speaker 13: rest of the market to kind of catch up. I'm

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Speaker 13: not saying we have to get quite that over valued,

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Speaker 13: but there's room for the rest of the market to

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Speaker 13: make a move.

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Speaker 2: Do you see conflicting cross currency in markets? What are they?

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Speaker 13: If you do so, I would say on the positive side,

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Speaker 13: GDP forecasts have moved up tremendously since the start of

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Speaker 13: the year, kind of moved us back into a range

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Speaker 13: that's typically favorable for stocks. From one you know, kind

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Speaker 13: of a sluggish range that was anticipated to start the

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Speaker 13: year as lousy for stocks. We've moved out of that.

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Speaker 13: But sentiment is pretty enthusiastic right now, whether you're looking

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Speaker 13: at AAII survey or the weekly CFTC data. So I

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Speaker 13: do expect to get a pullback at some point in time,

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Speaker 13: but you know, I've been looking for one for a

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Speaker 13: while and we haven't gotten it yet.

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Speaker 2: You're a little more neutral on risk. Does that indicate

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Speaker 2: some degree of bearishness on your part? That's thirty seconds.

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Speaker 13: Yeah, I would say, Look, we're not in the bear camp.

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Speaker 13: We do feel like the market is fairly priced at

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Speaker 13: this particular moment, though, all right, just give.

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Speaker 2: Me a preview of earnings. Ten seconds.

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Speaker 13: So, look, it's going to be all about margins and

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Speaker 13: how good companies are at expanding them. We're modeling flat,

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Speaker 13: but there's room for upside.

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Speaker 2: Okay, And your year end price target for the S

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Speaker 2: and P five and I'll throw one more in for you, lord.

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Speaker 5: Okay, what is it.

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Speaker 13: We're at fifty three hundred and we just nudged that up.

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Speaker 13: Some of our models can get us to around fifty

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Speaker 13: four hundred or a little bit higher.

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Speaker 2: Glory Calvesina ahead of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital

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Speaker 2: Markets in studio with us. This morning, you're listening to

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