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Speaker 1: Hello there, Happy Thursday, getting ready for the long for

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Speaker 1: what is going to be a holiday week next week.

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Speaker 1: I'm excited here at the Chuck Podcast. Welcome to another

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Speaker 1: episode of it because my kids come home on Friday.

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Speaker 1: I have to say, when I was in college, we

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Speaker 1: had classes at least Monday and Tuesday. They finally sort

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Speaker 1: of chipped away at the Wednesday before Thanksgiving because I

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Speaker 1: knew everybody was leaving. And now apparently there's no more

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Speaker 1: classes Mondays and tuesdays of Thanksgiving week, at least at

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Speaker 1: the schools that my kids are at. And hey, as

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Speaker 1: a recently empty nested parent, let's just say, I am

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Speaker 1: really looking forward to seeing my kids. I've actually gotten

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Speaker 1: to see them quite a bit this fall. But it

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Speaker 1: is not the same. It is for those of you

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Speaker 1: that have experienced empty nesting. The quiet, right is actually

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Speaker 1: you miss the noise, and I am looking forward to

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Speaker 1: that and that all begins in the next twenty four

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Speaker 1: hours for the Todd household. So I'm happy about that.

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Speaker 1: And I've also as you can see, I'm home. I'm

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Speaker 1: finally home. Look, November travel always in you know, November

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Speaker 1: for me has always been a heavy travel month, whether

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Speaker 1: it's previewing elections, coming doing analysis on post elections talk,

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Speaker 1: scheduling a lot of talks around the country. November has

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Speaker 1: always been a busy travel month. So this has been true,

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Speaker 1: which is why I never travel on Thanksgiving. As I joke,

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Speaker 1: as soon as I had a kid, I declared home

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Speaker 1: field advantage with my family and simply became the Turkey

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Speaker 1: host at this point. And I'm one of those that

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Speaker 1: loves a giant a giant crowd. You're welcome to travel

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Speaker 1: to me. I just don't want to be in an

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Speaker 1: airport during Thanksgiving week. One other I don't want to

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Speaker 1: sound like Tony Korneiser here and talk to you about

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Speaker 1: my travel pet piece, but I'm gonna make one pet

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Speaker 1: peeve that I think all of you will agree with,

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Speaker 1: and that is Hotel lotion all right, I you know,

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Speaker 1: get dry hands.

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Speaker 2: And you know, like, is it a rule.

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Speaker 1: At every hotel, whether you're talking the nicest hotel you

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Speaker 1: can come up with, or your you know, your your

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Speaker 1: sort of highway motel, you know, a courtyard or something

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Speaker 1: like that, is it a rule that everybody has to

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Speaker 1: water down their lotions? Like, no matter what what you

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Speaker 1: buy in CVS is never as watery, no matter the

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Speaker 1: brand you buy, whether it's generic or not, it's always

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Speaker 1: watered down every single hotel. It's almost like a running joke.

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Speaker 1: You feel like why, why is why this lotiony looking

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Speaker 1: water coming out of their thing? And it is it

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Speaker 1: is like it is not mattered the hotel. It is

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Speaker 1: not mad to the chain. And I would just say

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Speaker 1: to you, some of you lotion companies out there, your

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Speaker 1: good name, some of you probably for advertising purposes, give

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Speaker 1: it away, but are you telling it, you know, to

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Speaker 1: these hotels, And I think they all just dilute them

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Speaker 1: to stretch it out even further. Anyway, it's becoming a

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Speaker 1: pet peeve. And I realized it when had my home

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Speaker 1: lotion here, no more dry hands and it wasn't watery anyway.

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Speaker 1: I know that's a bizarre, But in that what podcasts

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Speaker 1: are for, right, You're supposed to air bizarre grievances, right, So.

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Speaker 2: I was going to do that.

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Speaker 1: But in all seriousness, let me give you a rundown

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Speaker 1: of this episode.

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Speaker 2: Number one.

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Speaker 1: My guest is Ann apple Bomb. I'm going to guess

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Speaker 1: some of you are subscribers to The Atlantic, and if

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Speaker 1: you are, you know who Anne Applebomb is.

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Speaker 2: I think she's one of.

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Speaker 1: The best journalists out there when it comes to expertise

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Speaker 1: on Europe, particularly Eastern Europe. What's happening are what is

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Speaker 1: Russia up to? She's author of a book that's come

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Speaker 1: out in the last year, including a new paperback version

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Speaker 1: of it called Autocracy inc. Full disclosure. We planned this

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Speaker 1: interview a couple months ago. It just happened that we

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Speaker 1: were able to talk on Wednesday, and it's the day

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Speaker 1: that something leaked out. Whether it was an intentional leak

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Speaker 1: to sort of start to change the headlines from Epstein

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Speaker 1: and other stuff, or it was an accidental leak or

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Speaker 1: a leak by the Russians to try to create an

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Speaker 1: illusion of peace that is coming. But the leaked potential

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Speaker 1: supposed peace deal that the United States and that the

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Speaker 1: White House seemed to say to Axios that they were

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Speaker 1: going to try to jam Ukraine with and get them

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Speaker 1: to agree to it. The proposal is a joke for

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Speaker 1: what it's worth. Now, when I interviewed Anne, we didn't

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Speaker 1: know many of the details. To her credit, she sort

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Speaker 1: of foreshadowed what she assumed it would be there, the

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Speaker 1: maximalist position. If Russia is not allowing. If Ukraine in

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Speaker 1: the room, they were going to have a maximalist position,

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Speaker 1: and they know that the Trump administration, which does want

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Speaker 1: to have a separate relationship with Russia on other issues,

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Speaker 1: is anxious to have that relationship, and with it comes

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Speaker 1: the attempt to do this. But as you'll hear in

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Speaker 1: the interview, this does feel like the beginning of Trump

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Speaker 1: just trying to get out of having to deal with

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Speaker 1: this anymore, that he'll throw up his hands and say,

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Speaker 1: nobody wants peace. I'm walking away, And in many ways

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Speaker 1: we've already walked away. You know the Ian Bremer's newsletter

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Speaker 1: G Zero. I'm a big fan of that newsletter. It's

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Speaker 1: a free newsletter. I encourage you to go check it

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Speaker 1: out and find it. I think it's a very smart

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Speaker 1: sort of internet almost like an international Political Science newsletter.

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Speaker 1: They had a nice chart in there showing funding to

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Speaker 1: Ukraine for the war, basically US funding and European funding,

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Speaker 1: and it's been pretty much dollar for dollar up through

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, American funding European funding. Twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 1: American funding is almost down to zero. It's not zero.

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Speaker 1: We have sent a few things to them, and European

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Speaker 1: funding has never been bigger. But still the combined is

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Speaker 1: only about sixty percent of what Ukraine was getting during

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Speaker 1: before Trump took office a second time. So the United

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Speaker 1: States has already financially walked away from this war.

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Speaker 2: The question is going to be.

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Speaker 1: Whether and because the US actually isn't funding much of

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Speaker 1: Ukraine's war anymore, they're providing important intelligence. In some ways,

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Speaker 1: the US doesn't have the leverage that it even had

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Speaker 1: a year ago on Zelenski, or the leverage that they

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Speaker 1: even had six months ago on Zelenski, because at this

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Speaker 1: point the Europeans, to their credit, have essentially tried to

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Speaker 1: help on their own the Ukrainians, and they, like I said,

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Speaker 1: they have filled the gap up to about sixty percent

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Speaker 1: of what the combined total funding was. And so the

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Speaker 1: leverage is not the United States doesn't have the leverage

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Speaker 1: over Zelensky that it did in some ways, the Europeans do.

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Speaker 1: And I don't know if the US has the same

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Speaker 1: leverage over the Europeans that we had. You could argue

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Speaker 1: that Donald Trump's plan to make Europe pay for this

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Speaker 1: is working and with it, though, comes diminished influence from US,

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Speaker 1: you know, as the leader of the free world, because

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Speaker 1: we are not a party to this, we don't want

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Speaker 1: to be in. Well, then we're also not going to

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Speaker 1: be able to have the same amount of leverage. Look,

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Speaker 1: we had a ton of leverage over Israel to force

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Speaker 1: them into that peace plan. We do not have the

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Speaker 1: same leverage over Ukraine a year ago we did, but

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Speaker 1: we do not have that same level of leverage now.

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Speaker 1: So this thing is not going anywhere, and it does

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Speaker 1: look a lot more likely that this is. You know,

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Speaker 1: he will he will just simply walk away from it

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Speaker 1: because he doesn't want to be a party to something

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Speaker 1: that he thinks he can't deal with. And he's and

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Speaker 1: you know, it's unless he accepts the premise that Putin's

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Speaker 1: been playing for him for a fool and he refuses

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Speaker 1: to accept that premise. I think we know that this

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Speaker 1: is unfortunately going to continue to drag on into some

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Speaker 1: version of a stalemate. But our conversation gets deeper than that.

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Speaker 1: We obviously talk about this deal, talk about what could happen,

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Speaker 1: where's this headed, the rise of authoritarianism Saudi Arabia. We

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Speaker 1: get into the Venezuela issue and what our aggressiveness towards Venezuela,

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Speaker 1: what message that is sending to China in regards to Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: or frankly putin in regards to what he's trying to

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Speaker 1: do in essentially reconfigure the.

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Speaker 2: Old Soviet Union.

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Speaker 1: So we get into all of those things. I think

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Speaker 1: it's a so conversation, but a good conversation. And we

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Speaker 1: hadn't touched on this topic in a while, and hey,

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Speaker 1: that everything. The confluence of events made this I think,

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Speaker 1: top of mind, and I hope you will give it

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Speaker 1: the attention that it deserves. But it is a you know,

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Speaker 1: it's interesting when we were talking about the issue with Venezuela,

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Speaker 1: and I think I've expressed this to you before. Personally,

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Speaker 1: I'm sort of very torn. I want to see him go.

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Speaker 1: This is a country. This guy's violating democratic norms. He

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Speaker 1: he was ousted in a free and fair election, and

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Speaker 1: he's refused to go. And if I and if the

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Speaker 1: if the president of the United States laid out the

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Speaker 1: goal and the rationale for doing what we're doing in

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Speaker 1: an attempt to sort of essentially protect and defend democracy

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Speaker 1: in our hemisphere, I think you could.

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Speaker 2: You know, look it, I think you could. You certainly

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Speaker 2: would have a bit.

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Speaker 1: More credibility in the world stage for what we are doing.

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Speaker 1: The problem I have is the fact that he's lying

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Speaker 1: about the rationale for doing what he's doing. Right, we

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Speaker 1: don't have a fentanyl crisis coming out of Venezuela. That

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Speaker 1: isn't the issue. You know this this we are there

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Speaker 1: for other reasons. But we're claiming we're there for another reason,

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Speaker 1: which isn't true. And that's you know, when you lie

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Speaker 1: or mislead a democracy into why you're going into a

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Speaker 1: military intervention, you know that usually doesn't go well. You

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Speaker 1: know it. We only have our own history to look

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Speaker 1: at that. And every time we meddle in Latin America

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Speaker 1: this way, it always bites us in the ass. And

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Speaker 1: so that certainly is of concern. But if we were

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Speaker 1: a nation that cared about expanding and protecting democracy around

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Speaker 1: the world, we'd be much more involved and invested in

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Speaker 1: Ukraine's success at beating back the Russians, and then maybe

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Speaker 1: we would have a better rationale for what we're doing

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Speaker 1: in Venezuela. But right now now we are not in

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Speaker 1: We are not trying to protect democracy in Venezuela.

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Speaker 2: That may be, that may.

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Speaker 1: Be an outcome that comes with this decision to intervene,

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Speaker 1: but it is not the primary reason we're doing it,

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Speaker 1: and that I think that is unfortunate and it will

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Speaker 1: only increase the amount of mistrust it out there. And

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Speaker 1: of course Donald Trump has a has a has a

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Speaker 1: base that doesn't want intervention in foreign wars, which is

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Speaker 1: why I think this Venezuela situation is more fraught politically

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Speaker 1: than I think this administration appreciates. I think they think

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Speaker 1: that they can basically play the deal with Venezuela like

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Speaker 1: they're playing the game of risk and we're the big

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Speaker 1: bully in our hemisphere, and we'll just do this because

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Speaker 1: this is this is right there on our side of

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Speaker 1: the of the game board. It doesn't always work that well.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't always work out that way. So when you

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Speaker 1: look at what we're doing with Venezuela and what we're

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Speaker 1: not doing with Ukraine, right, We certainly don't have any

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Speaker 1: kagent ideological explanation for our lack of intervention in one

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Speaker 1: place and threatened intervention in another place. So again, that's

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Speaker 1: that side of that conversation. I want to get through

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Speaker 1: a bit of a like I said this before, a

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Speaker 1: bit of a notebook slew of notebook items there. We've

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Speaker 1: seen an additional round of polling now post election day

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. If you recall the last time I

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Speaker 1: delved into a poll with you guys, it was the

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Speaker 1: NBC News poll, and it was a poll that came

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Speaker 1: out before the election day twenty twenty five. And it's

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Speaker 1: worth noting how precient that poll was. It had Democrats

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Speaker 1: with an eight point generic ballot advantage on the generic

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Speaker 1: congressional ballot. No other poll had shown anything like that. Now,

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Speaker 1: pretty much every pole that's come out has shown Democrats

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Speaker 1: with anywhere from a five to a Maris Pole chose

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Speaker 1: a fourteen point lead. I think that's a super outlier,

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Speaker 1: but there are other polls out there that show it

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Speaker 1: consistently five six, seven. It shows you that eight point

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Speaker 1: number was not an outlier. There were some people who

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Speaker 1: were trying to argue that was an outlier, that was

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Speaker 1: not an outlier, And I think we saw there was

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Speaker 1: another part of that poll that I failed to make

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Speaker 1: a big deal out of that. Frankly, I meant to.

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Speaker 1: I'd written it down in my notes, but I didn't

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Speaker 1: bring it up, and I should have. And that was

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Speaker 1: sort of one of the ways the heart McInturff one

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Speaker 1: of the regular questions that the NBC News poll has

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Speaker 1: had on that poll going back some fIF I want

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Speaker 1: to say, we started doing this in the eight cycle,

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Speaker 1: maybe six cycle. Is on a scale of one to ten,

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Speaker 1: how you know, how interested are you in this election,

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Speaker 1: in the next election? Interest in the election? And what

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Speaker 1: was remarkable in this in this poll here in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five is the number was already in the mid fifties.

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Speaker 1: And this was asking about the twenty twenty six midterms

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Speaker 1: a year out, and it was in the mid fifties.

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Speaker 1: Normally that number was in the forties four years before,

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Speaker 1: and it's regular. This was sort of a It being

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Speaker 1: in the mid fifties felt like a summer of an

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Speaker 1: election year number, not a fall of the year before. Well,

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Speaker 1: what did that foreshadow? The massive turnout advantage that Democrats

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Speaker 1: ended up showcasing. On election day twenty twenty five, we

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Speaker 1: saw New Jersey. I continue to go back to the

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Speaker 1: New Jersey example. You know, Virginia you can write off

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Speaker 1: as a federal worker issue. New Jersey where there was

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Speaker 1: a not so popular two term Democratic governor being replaced.

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Speaker 1: It was term limited. In the Republican nomine he got

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Speaker 1: more votes this time than he got four years ago,

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Speaker 1: and he ended up losing by thirteen percentage points. That

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Speaker 1: is a flashing red light for the Republicans. And I

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Speaker 1: will say this, So we've gotten these two new generics

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Speaker 1: out there, Marist and I know the Marist folks well.

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Speaker 1: They they they are very they're very careful about what

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Speaker 1: they they They're very transparent about their methodology, and so

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Speaker 1: their numbers can be a bit more fluid. And academic

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Speaker 1: polsters in general, uh get a little skittish about about

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Speaker 1: waiting based on different things. They very much want to

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Speaker 1: have a more hands off approach and to some of

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Speaker 1: the decision making that they make on weight. So the

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Speaker 1: Marist will fluctuate more. And that's why it's always important

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Speaker 1: don't compare two different polls to each other. Compare a

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Speaker 1: Polster trend line to themselves, and so the trend line

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Speaker 1: fits the same trend line. We're seeing what what marists

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Speaker 1: showed a month ago is now is now moved in

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Speaker 1: the democratic direction. Well, guess what every pole has moved

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Speaker 1: in the democratic direction. You've seen a consistent rise in

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Speaker 1: Trump's disapproval rating, a consistent rise in the spread between

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Speaker 1: Democrats and Republicans, and the generic ballot. They're clearly something

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Speaker 1: has turned here. It looks like it's mostly economy based

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Speaker 1: more than anything else. Right. You know, you may think

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Speaker 1: it's about Epstein, or you may think it's about some

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Speaker 1: of these other things. Ultimately, I think the great lesson

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Speaker 1: that everybody I should go back and take away from

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four is it Ultimately it's about prices, and

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Speaker 1: it's about cost of living. And the cost of living

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Speaker 1: has been skyrocketing everywhere, right, and the latest issue is

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Speaker 1: electric bills. And the fact is you can't you know,

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Speaker 1: the White House is nervous. That's why they wiped away

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Speaker 1: the food tariffs. That's nice that maybe they can sort

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Speaker 1: of slow down the rise in grocery prices, but the

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Speaker 1: electric but the rise in electric bills around the country

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Speaker 1: is going to eat into whatever tariff savings he creates there.

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Speaker 1: And of course he spent his speech browbeating the Fed.

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Speaker 1: And if the Fed lowers interest rates too quickly, and

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Speaker 1: I think there's a real divide on this because going

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Speaker 1: to imagine the Fed lower's interest rates and Trump turns

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Speaker 1: out two thousand dollars checks, we're going to be in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty one all over again. And remember what happened

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one. That's when we had another surge

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Speaker 1: of inflation that essentially ruined Biden's presidency. Right, he could

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Speaker 1: not get out from under that initial inflation surge where

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Speaker 1: the market was flooded with easy money and lower interest

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Speaker 1: rates plus a tear Freebate check all would flow extra

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Speaker 1: easy money in there. And I promise you prices aren't

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Speaker 1: going to go down, just the opposite, prices are going

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Speaker 1: to go up. So he is not This economy is

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Speaker 1: not in a good situation. There's not many levers he

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Speaker 1: can pull here. And yet one thing you know about

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is he's always going to try to pull

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Speaker 1: a lever, and in some ways, the more levers he

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Speaker 1: tries to pull, the more he makes things worse. If

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Speaker 1: you need an example of that. Just look at what

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Speaker 1: he did with redistricting. He has now put his party

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Speaker 1: in a worse place right by bullying all these legislatures

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Speaker 1: to do this, He's put his party now in a

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Speaker 1: worst place if Texas, if this map does, if this

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Speaker 1: map doesn't get upheld by the US Supreme Court. But

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Speaker 1: I want to go back through these because there was

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Speaker 1: another poll that was out that I think gives you

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Speaker 1: a sense of how to read some of these generic

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Speaker 1: ballot numbers, the Marquette Law School poll. I'm a big

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Speaker 1: fan of the Marquette poll. It's a very he's a

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Speaker 1: steady pollster there, Charles Franklin. Anyway, it's a very good poll,

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Speaker 1: very consistent. One of the things, by the way he

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Speaker 1: does quarterly is probably the most thorough examination on the

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Speaker 1: public opinion side of the public's opinions of the Supreme Court,

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Speaker 1: for what it's worth.

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Speaker 2: So it is.

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Speaker 1: It is a poll that I care about a lot. Well,

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Speaker 1: they came out and their generic ballot among just registered

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Speaker 1: voters was forty nine forty four the Democrats. Then he said,

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Speaker 1: among those certain to vote, the Democratic lead expands to

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Speaker 1: nine points. More importantly, in that Poul Trump's approval rating

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Speaker 1: among independent voters is below thirty percent. So look, there's

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Speaker 1: already a disadvantage for Republicans when it comes to these

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Speaker 1: off your elections, as Democrats have the more regular voters.

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Speaker 1: Democrats have the voters that are definitely going to show up,

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Speaker 1: which is why you see those more certain to vote,

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Speaker 1: the Democratic lead expands. So if you're the Republicans and

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Speaker 1: you're trying to hold Congress, you know, among registered voters,

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Speaker 1: you're hoping that the number is you know, you don't

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Speaker 1: want a separation on the generic ballot of more than one,

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Speaker 1: two or three points at this point, because you know,

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Speaker 1: among likely voters it's going to basically whatever the spread

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Speaker 1: is among registers, it's basically going to double. And so,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think the way these congressional districts are gerrymandered,

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Speaker 1: Democrats probably have to be ahead somewhere between six and

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Speaker 1: seven points on the national generic ballot in order to

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Speaker 1: win control of the House. Maybe if the Texas map

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Speaker 1: doesn't get upheld, you know, and let's say Virginia still

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Speaker 1: gets aggressive and decides to redistrict and helps out the

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Speaker 1: Democratic numbers, or maybe that number goes down to four

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Speaker 1: or five. But The point is we're already in territory where.

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Speaker 2: The House is gone. Right.

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Speaker 1: Anything north of six points the Republicans have lost the House.

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Speaker 1: And as you keep creeping up, then suddenly you start

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Speaker 1: to see that the Senate is in play. There's a

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Speaker 1: reason results matter more than promises, just like there's a

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Speaker 1: reason Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury law firm.

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Speaker 1: includes cases where insurance companies offered next to nothing, just

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Speaker 1: hoping to get away with paying as little as possible.

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Speaker 1: Morgan and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact,

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Speaker 1: which was a staggering forty times the amount that the

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Speaker 1: insurance company originally offered. That original offer six hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars twenty six million, six hundred fifty thousand dollars.

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Speaker 1: So with more than a thousand lawyers across the country,

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Speaker 1: the same, so check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee

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Speaker 1: is free unless they win. One of the talks I

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Speaker 1: did a few days ago was on with another another

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Speaker 1: analyst who was very involved in the one of the

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Speaker 1: Virginia races, the ag race, and you know, I want

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Speaker 1: to protect we were in an off the record setting,

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Speaker 1: so I just want to share the analysis. But the

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Speaker 1: basic analysis of why did j Jones win? Did he

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Speaker 1: how did he win? Well? He won because the number

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Speaker 1: of split ticket voters in Virginia was about six or

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Speaker 1: seven percent. Yes, I know what I just did, six

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Speaker 1: seven have at it, everybody, But it was somewhere in

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Speaker 1: the six to seven percent range here and it is

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Speaker 1: it is interesting because she she won by fifteen points

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Speaker 1: and Jones was able to win by five or six

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Speaker 1: So you start to see what that range is and

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Speaker 1: if you applied this, so Susan Collins in twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: overperformed by about six to seven points, indicating a split

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Speaker 1: ticket vote in Maine of about six or seven percentage

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Speaker 1: points of the electorate. So you know, we've all been

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Speaker 1: trying to calculate what is the maximum number of voters

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Speaker 1: who might actually be vacillating between the two parties. Right,

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Speaker 1: Most of the differences these days are which party turns

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Speaker 1: out more of their voters. That's that's the difference between

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Speaker 1: why you know, Democrats may do better in Ohio in

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Speaker 1: a midterm year and Republicans do better in Ohio in

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Speaker 1: a presidential year. But the question is who's the persuadable number, right,

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Speaker 1: who are the voters? You know, we used to have

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Speaker 1: fifteen twenty five percent of voters that would be split

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Speaker 1: ticket voters. We're nowhere near that. But it's interesting to

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Speaker 1: me that what you saw in Maine was about six

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Speaker 1: or seven percent on the split ticket side. What we

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Speaker 1: saw in Virginia five years same sort of six or seven.

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Speaker 1: So just keep that in mind, right, And so what

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Speaker 1: does that mean? So let's say you have this generic

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Speaker 1: ballot sitting in the where Democrats are up north of

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Speaker 1: six points, which I would argue is what their advantage was.

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Speaker 1: It looks like in the off year elections, essentially anything

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Speaker 1: between any state legislative district that Donald Trump carried by

433
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,959
Speaker 1: five points or less Democrats won in Virginia. Now they

434
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,439
Speaker 1: only won I think one seat where Trump carried a

435
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 1: legislative district by somewhere between five and ten points. So

436
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 1: let's assume that sort of five point buffer. You apply that.

437
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 1: So what that would mean is that it makes Ohio

438
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 1: Senate a coin flip. And then you already have a

439
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:17,719
Speaker 1: bit of breeze at Shared Brown's back because Democratic turnout advantages.

440
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 1: So that's a that becomes a coin flip race. It

441
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 1: is a winnable race. Not saying he's gonna win it, it

442
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:28,160
Speaker 1: is a winnable race. Then if you apply the wellther

443
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 1: six to seven percent of potential split ticket voters, all right,

444
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,360
Speaker 1: then suddenly you say, okay, what would that do numbers

445
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,959
Speaker 1: wise in a Texas, numbers wise in an Iowa, numbers

446
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 1: wise in a Kansas although there's no Kansas series Kansas

447
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:46,360
Speaker 1: Senate candidate yet, or numbers wise in a Mississippi, And

448
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 1: that's where you start to see where, well, I don't

449
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:52,159
Speaker 1: think Democrats in a presidential year could win a Mississippi

450
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,239
Speaker 1: Senate race, could win an Iowa Senate race, could win

451
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 1: a Kansas Senate race, and probably not a Texas center

452
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 1: race though though I think Texas is is a bit

453
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: more fluid than we fully appreciate. In a midterm year,

454
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: they can, right, you apply the five essentially a generic

455
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,400
Speaker 1: five point advantage, and then on top of that, right,

456
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 1: you have another six to seven percent of voters who

457
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 1: are willing to split their ticket. If you accept the

458
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 1: premise that this is essentially what we've seen in any

459
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 1: competitive race, at least in our new Trump polarized era,

460
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 1: that does put Kansas, Alaska, Mississippi, all of that on

461
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 1: the radar. Which is why I think right now I

462
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 1: go back. I've never been more bullish on democrats chances

463
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 1: to do well in the midterms, and I am this week.

464
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 1: I've been a bit skeptical all year because you know,

465
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,679
Speaker 1: there's because of a few things. One is just the

466
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 1: simple and popularity of the Democratic brand. But that was meaningless,

467
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 1: I mean it turned out to be meaningless.

468
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:55,200
Speaker 2: Right.

469
00:26:55,240 --> 00:27:02,879
Speaker 1: The other big, the other big sort of what do

470
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 1: you call it rule these days of the Trump era

471
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:13,880
Speaker 1: is we just vote against right. We don't like whoever's

472
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 1: in power, and so we are voting out parties in

473
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,239
Speaker 1: power when we get a chance. We are voting out

474
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:23,159
Speaker 1: incumbents presidents when we get a chance. Right, we've done it,

475
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 1: I mean to think about it. We've essentially fired two

476
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 1: incumbent administrations back to back, and if you count Trump's

477
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 1: victory over Clinton, that's three in a row on that front.

478
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 1: The House flipped in eighteen, The House flipped again in

479
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:41,879
Speaker 1: twenty two, Right, so the Senate flipped in twenty The

480
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 1: Senate flipped again in twenty two. Excuse me, the Senate

481
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 1: flipped again, not in twenty two and twenty. Then it

482
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:50,679
Speaker 1: flipped again in twenty four. You notice here, how it?

483
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 2: You know? On that front. So I do think that.

484
00:27:56,680 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 1: If Democrats can't use this moment to find good candidates

485
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 1: to run in Kansas, good candidates to run in Alaska,

486
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 1: big money to donate to places like Mississippi, Iowa Senate,

487
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 1: Kansas Senate, Alaska Senate, they can't do it at this moment,

488
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 1: then I don't know when they're.

489
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 2: Going to do it.

490
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 1: This is their opportunity. The polling's never look better. And

491
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:25,920
Speaker 1: I'm a big believer in the Haley barbarisms. I love

492
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 1: my old Haley barbarisms, and one of my favorite is

493
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:30,880
Speaker 1: good gets better and bad gets worse. And I think

494
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 1: we're in a situation where bad is going to get

495
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 1: worse for Trump, right, because he's going to keep trying

496
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 1: to fix it, and the stuff he does to fix

497
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:42,959
Speaker 1: it will only divide his party, like he's already divided

498
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 1: his party on whether to even do these rebate checks.

499
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 1: He thinks he can do this without Congress. Good luck, right,

500
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 1: He's going to get a haircut when the tariff ruling

501
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 1: comes down. So all of these things, I think that

502
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 1: he's likely, his instinct to meddle and to think he

503
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 1: can somehow change the weather is likely to take a

504
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 1: bad situation and make it worse for him on this front.

505
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 1: And even though do you have a Democratic party that

506
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 1: doesn't like its leadership, there's a total vacuum there. There

507
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 1: is such enthusiasm at pushing back against Trump. There's such

508
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 1: a belief that, hey, this stuff is working. Right, the

509
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 1: courts ruled against them in Texas, voters got behind doing

510
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 1: something that I didn't think was as you know, I

511
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,719
Speaker 1: don't think we fully appreciate how impressive the feat was.

512
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 1: With Gavin Newsom in California. You start to see where

513
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 1: good gets better on that front, but we're still in

514
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 1: the in fairness, we're still in the wake of what was.

515
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 1: This has just been a really bad November for Trump,

516
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 1: the Republican brand, Republicans in general. You know, it is

517
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 1: every month going to be like this between now and

518
00:29:55,280 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: next November. That's unlikely, right, but it is if this

519
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 1: economy continues to be this uneven, and especially if we

520
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 1: continue with this AI bubble talk, and there's a lot

521
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 1: of conversations out there that we are this is looking

522
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 1: a lot more like nineteen eight, ninety eight, nineteen ninety nine,

523
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 1: which was basically the first time the Internet bubble completely popped.

524
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 1: You know, as I joke, well, somebody please tell me

525
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 1: which one of these AI companies is pets dot com.

526
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 1: And there is certainly that hanging over the head. And

527
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 1: so if even that doesn't go well, then that turns people,

528
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 1: even those that have a little bit of money, will

529
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 1: suddenly be feeling sour about about how about how Trump

530
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 1: is handling this economy. One more thing I want to

531
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 1: get to before we get to the interview with Ann Applebaum.

532
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 1: And by the way, I also will have my college

533
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 1: football preview. I got a few things to say about

534
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 1: the updated college football playoff ranking. Says you might you

535
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 1: might think, and I'm going to deal with a few,

536
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 1: quite a few questions. I want to just end on

537
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 1: California governor. We just got a new candidate jumping in

538
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 1: the race, Tom Steyer. You may remember him as a

539
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 1: climate change activist who ran for president, kind of self funder.

540
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: You know, Stier is a guy who doesn't look like

541
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 1: he ever laughs. He is always serious, borderline a little

542
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 1: bit angry, and.

543
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 2: He's and I.

544
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 1: Think he takes I think he takes his positions very seriously.

545
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 1: He takes politics very seriously. He's willing to spend his

546
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 1: money as a to do these things. But there's you know,

547
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 1: there's I don't think you can be dour all the time.

548
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 1: You have to have some sonny in you somewhere, right,

549
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 1: you know, I think the key we've all you know,

550
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 1: you heard crystalis and I discussed this quite a bit

551
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 1: during the election night live stream that we did. You know,

552
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 1: one of mom Donnie's superpowers is his optimism and the

553
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 1: constant smile on his face. So you know, you've got

554
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 1: to project some optimism with voters. And you know Styr

555
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 1: has been in this dog sort of dark place, dark

556
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 1: place about climate change. Right, the end is coming sooner

557
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 1: than we think. Dark about democracy. He inserted himself a

558
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 1: bit into the referendum campaign to do the reredissecting in California.

559
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 1: It was an insertion that how many great Gavin Newsom

560
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 1: folks appreciated. But look, you know why he got in

561
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 1: because this has been I have to say so far,

562
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 1: the development of California governor's race is one.

563
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 2: Of the big head scratchers to me.

564
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 1: This is in nineteen ninety one, when all of these

565
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 1: big time Democrats decided that George H. W. Bush wasn't

566
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 1: beatable in the nineteen ninety two general election, people like

567
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 1: the gut part Out Gore, Bill Bradley, Jay Rockefeller, Sam Nunn,

568
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 1: all these supposed rising stars of the early nineties all

569
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 1: decided not to run. And the people that did run

570
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 1: were nicknamed the Seven Dwarfs. And it was Bill Clinton,

571
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 1: it was Paul Songiz had Doug Wilder in that race,

572
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 1: you had bought carry in that race. I know, I'm

573
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 1: leaving Tom Harkin was in that race, but collectively that

574
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 1: crew was because there was no star power at the time.

575
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton wasn't a star. Then Bill Clinton ended up

576
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 1: sticking out as like the best political athlete on stage

577
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 1: with a whole bunch of sort of Tier two senators

578
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 1: and governors who showed themselves up and I think helped

579
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 1: catapult him, to quick start him. At the time. I

580
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 1: remember a debate I believe it was on PBS the

581
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 1: first time they all appeared together, and Bill Clinton was

582
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 1: the sort of the clear star of this field. But

583
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 1: in general it was treated like the Seven Dwars. That's

584
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 1: kind of how I feel about the current makeup of

585
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,720
Speaker 1: this California governor's race. Here's here's an open seat for

586
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 1: California governor. That where you get to be the governor

587
00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 1: of the fourth largest economy in the world. It is

588
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 1: as important of a position. I think it's you know,

589
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 1: New York City mayor's probably slightly more prominent on the

590
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 1: international stage because of New York City's prominent, But California

591
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 1: governors probably New York City maybe a harder pr job.

592
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:17,239
Speaker 1: California Governor's just a harder job, especially these days. You know,

593
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:19,720
Speaker 1: it's weird. It's you know, you think a single party

594
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 1: state makes it easy. It's all these one party states

595
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 1: are still two party states, meaning there's sort of two

596
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 1: wings of the one party that fight each other. I mean,

597
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 1: Texas is kind of a three party state. Right, you

598
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:31,879
Speaker 1: have the Democrats is one party, and then you have

599
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 1: two wings of the Republican Party that are at war.

600
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 2: With each other.

601
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:40,240
Speaker 1: Essentially the Ken Paxton Dan Patrick wing that Greg Abbott

602
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 1: is suddenly now on one side. And then you have

603
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:45,439
Speaker 1: sort of the old bush Rick Perry John Cornyan wing

604
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 1: of the party a bit more pro business. And what's

605
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:50,799
Speaker 1: interesting that wing worked with the Democrats to elect the

606
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:53,839
Speaker 1: last speaker of the Texas Legislation. But the point is

607
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 1: these one party states, you know politics, you know the

608
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 1: expression politics of poors a vacuum. Even in the one

609
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 1: party states, there's always an opposition. Sometimes the opposition comes

610
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 1: from an outside force. In Oklahoma, it's not the Democrats

611
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 1: or a slice of the Republicans, it's the it's the

612
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 1: tribes who are very wealthy, and they will fund primary foes,

613
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 1: they will fund candidates to keep sort of as the

614
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 1: quote check if you will on the on the Republican

615
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,799
Speaker 1: leadership in that state, and in California you do.

616
00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:23,799
Speaker 2: You pretty much.

617
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 1: You have a very liberal, progressive wing of the party

618
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 1: and then you have a very sort of pro business

619
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 1: democratic wing of the party. And collectively it's given Democrats

620
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 1: this illusion of a super majority, but it actually makes

621
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 1: it quite difficult to govern. But it has been interesting

622
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:48,919
Speaker 1: to me how few big time rising stars have wanted

623
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,880
Speaker 1: to jump into this race because it isn't you know,

624
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 1: it's a you know, this doesn't come open very often,

625
00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,880
Speaker 1: and you know, you've had Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom

626
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 1: essentially governor of California for the last sixteen years, and

627
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 1: they've kind of, you know, they've kind of been hovering

628
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:13,360
Speaker 1: over democratic politics in California for the entire twenty first century.

629
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 1: This is the first time that page is going to turn.

630
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:15,759
Speaker 2: Now.

631
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 1: I understood that with the referendum and the re redistricting,

632
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 1: that kind of whatever jockeying was taking place on when

633
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 1: it came to the governor's race sort of got put

634
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 1: on pause while all efforts went in there. But we're

635
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:32,320
Speaker 1: still I mean, let's just be honest, this thing is

636
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 1: lack and star power. You have Jave Ebreserah, the former congressman,

637
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 1: former state attorney general who's one of his closest advisors,

638
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 1: just got indicted. And it's an investigation. You can't just

639
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:44,840
Speaker 1: chuck this up to a Trump investigation. It's an investigation

640
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 1: that started during the Biden Justice Department and continue during

641
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 1: the Trump Justice Department. Basically a dummy job, right, you know,

642
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 1: sort of using Bessera's name and a position to you know,

643
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 1: there's no evidence of Besserah was a part of this,

644
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:07,840
Speaker 1: but I think it it tarnishes him. Whether he thinks

645
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,600
Speaker 1: that's fair or not, I think it does. You've had

646
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 1: somebody I've interviewed on this podcast do I find to

647
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:14,919
Speaker 1: be one of the more interesting characters in this race,

648
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:18,399
Speaker 1: Steve Klubeck, who is of course made his money doing

649
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:22,760
Speaker 1: time shares. He is a big personality to say the least,

650
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 1: and you know, in this environment, he's one of those

651
00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 1: that if he caught fire, it wouldn't shock me, And

652
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 1: if he ended up only getting two percent come primary day,

653
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 1: it wouldn't shock me. Katie Porter had the had that

654
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 1: well publicized meltdown when a journalist asked her a few

655
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 1: simple questions where she couldn't handle basic questions, and then

656
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 1: of course the floodgates open. Exporter staffers just you know,

657
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:55,040
Speaker 1: unloaded story after story about what a terrible boss the

658
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:59,360
Speaker 1: former congresswoman is. I do think you know, that probably

659
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 1: has ended her ability to become one of the top two.

660
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 1: And remember this California governor's race is a top two situation,

661
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 1: so everybody runs in the same ballot. There's really only

662
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 1: two prominent Republicans that are getting some attention. You have

663
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:22,439
Speaker 1: this Riverside County Sheriff, Chad Bianco, very very hardcore, sort

664
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 1: of more of a MAGA guy. And then you have

665
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 1: Steve Hilton, who's the British transplant as a British accent

666
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:31,720
Speaker 1: and everything, but he's a US citizen. He's been running,

667
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: he was a Fox commentator, he was a former advisor

668
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:38,520
Speaker 1: to David Cameron when he was Prime Minister of the UK.

669
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 1: I hadn't really taken his candidacy that seriously. Not because

670
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 1: he's not a serious guy. I think he is, but

671
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:49,360
Speaker 1: because I just don't think, and I still am skeptical

672
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 1: that a former British citizen is going to be met

673
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:57,840
Speaker 1: with open arms by a Republican electorate or any electorate

674
00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 1: to become governor of I mean, yes, they embraced Arnold Schwarzenegger,

675
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:06,799
Speaker 1: but Arnold Schwarzenegger, you know, in some ways, was as

676
00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 1: American as they come, and it isn't it wasn't a

677
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:13,399
Speaker 1: recent thing that he became an American to then jump

678
00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:16,799
Speaker 1: in and run for governor on that front. So, but

679
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:20,240
Speaker 1: what I've noticed is the Democratic field is so weak

680
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 1: that both Republican candidates in a very with a huge

681
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 1: undecided number have actually been the ones hovering closer to

682
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 1: the top. You've seen different orders by uncle will be

683
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 1: one some of them. Hilton is one, Katie Porter with

684
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:36,839
Speaker 1: her name ideas too, and then everybody else is sort

685
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 1: of below that. So the assumption is some more people

686
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 1: are getting in. I don't consider Stier.

687
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 2: To be a big name.

688
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 1: He's big money, but I don't know if he's a

689
00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 1: big name on that front. And I don't, like I said,

690
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 1: I have some questions about whether he's just too dour

691
00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:53,720
Speaker 1: to catch fire.

692
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 2: We shall see.

693
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:56,719
Speaker 1: By the way, Tom Styr, I'd look forward to having

694
00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:59,239
Speaker 1: you on the podcast. Steve Elton, I know we've talked

695
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 1: about having you in the podcast. I'm hoping to have

696
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:05,800
Speaker 1: you on soon as well. Then the other though, Shoe

697
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:09,480
Speaker 1: that I think the assumption is, you know, in whispers

698
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:12,360
Speaker 1: in California circles, is that people are just waiting for

699
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 1: Rick Caruso, who lost the LA Mayor's race four years

700
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 1: ago to Karen Bass. That you know, is he going

701
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 1: to run for mayor, for real for mayor and challenge

702
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 1: Karen Bass again, or is he going to run for governor?

703
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,839
Speaker 1: And it really depends on who you talk to out there.

704
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 1: I've talked to people who are sure, of course he's

705
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,919
Speaker 1: running for governor. Why would he want to run for mayor.

706
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:35,719
Speaker 1: It's a it's a ceremonial job. You don't have as

707
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 1: much power, it's perceived power. And about the only draw

708
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,760
Speaker 1: of being mayor of LA over the next four years

709
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:47,360
Speaker 1: is being mayor of LA during the twenty twenty eight Olympics.

710
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 1: So there's there's some people who swear, no, no, no, no,

711
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:54,359
Speaker 1: he's not He's not going to run for mary. He's

712
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:55,839
Speaker 1: going to run for governor. He's definitely going to run

713
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:59,359
Speaker 1: for governor. I think the field's open for him if

714
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:01,400
Speaker 1: he does run for governor, because you have sort of

715
00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:03,880
Speaker 1: this race to the left right now that is with

716
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 1: Katie Porter, Tom Steyer. There's nobody, I mean, Klubec will

717
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:09,520
Speaker 1: tell you he's trying to hug the center lane. He

718
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 1: calls himself a Bill Clinton Harry read Democrat, which is

719
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 1: his code for saying, I'm a more pro business centrist Democrat,

720
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 1: but it's clear Caruso is going to and that lane

721
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:24,319
Speaker 1: could be wide open if all of the other Democrats

722
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:28,600
Speaker 1: are going to play to a more liberal crowd. And

723
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 1: I think some of this are not sure. You have

724
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:32,840
Speaker 1: Antonio Viragoso who's running again. He was kind of the

725
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 1: only seemed like the only candidate that had a shot

726
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 1: at making Gavin Newsom's life miserable when he ran for

727
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 1: governor in twenty eighteen. I actually moderated a debate that

728
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 1: featured both Via Goosa and Gavin Newsom on there, and

729
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 1: they were the only two sparring partners, if you will.

730
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 1: But that was a race that never felt in doubt.

731
00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 1: It was all about whether well with knew some sort

732
00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 1: of you know where is where out is welcome providing

733
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 1: an opening or not, and Knewsom didn't and he ended

734
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 1: up running away. Swawell could be interesting. I don't want

735
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:10,279
Speaker 1: to write him off. He could end up raising a

736
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 1: lot of money. But sitting members of Congress have struggled

737
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 1: in the past in governor's races in California. It's just

738
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:21,000
Speaker 1: tough because it's tough to have much name id. In

739
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:23,359
Speaker 1: some ways, Katie Porter is benefiting from the fact that

740
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 1: she ran for the Senate and did run state watch game.

741
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 1: Obviously didn't make the runoff against Adam Schiff, but she

742
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 1: certainly got a little bit of that. But I still

743
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 1: look at this and I keep thinking there's got to

744
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 1: be some better, some bigger candidates that are going to

745
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:42,239
Speaker 1: jump in this race. You know, maybe some interesting outsiders

746
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:45,400
Speaker 1: that might jump in. It has been a what I

747
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 1: would say is a shockingly sleepy race that perhaps gets

748
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 1: more interesting if Rick Caruso ends up jumping in and

749
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 1: then suddenly that might elevate things. But I'll tell you now,

750
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 1: I do think the Republicans have all both of them,

751
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:02,880
Speaker 1: have gotten enough traction where this is going to the

752
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 1: top two is going to be a D N and R.

753
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 1: I don't think you're going to have two d's or

754
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:09,879
Speaker 1: make it in the top two anymore. And I think

755
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 1: there was a thought that that's that's where we were headed.

756
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 1: I think there's definitely going to be a D versus

757
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 1: R situation here because of the smaller number of Republicans

758
00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:23,920
Speaker 1: and the increasingly large field of Demo. I mean, if

759
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 1: you're gonna have Swawell in this race, Tom Steyr in

760
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:30,359
Speaker 1: this race, Katie Porter in this race via Regosa Bessarah

761
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 1: Klubec is a self funder throwing correct. I mean, you

762
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:35,880
Speaker 1: see where we're going here. That's up to seven Democrats

763
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 1: splitting that vote. If you assume there's thirty to forty

764
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 1: percent of the electorate is going to show up for

765
00:43:41,520 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 1: the Republicans. You see how very quickly that you almost

766
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:48,640
Speaker 1: guarantee that one of the two slots is gonna is

767
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 1: going to go to the Republicans. But just in general

768
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:55,920
Speaker 1: it's been in it's been fascinating to me how we

769
00:43:56,040 --> 00:44:01,040
Speaker 1: haven't seen more star power try to come into this anyway,

770
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 1: something that I suspect we'll get. We'll start to see

771
00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:09,040
Speaker 1: some movement over the next few weeks, and maybe in

772
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:12,080
Speaker 1: and around the holidays you'll start to see some enough.

773
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you

774
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Speaker 2: All right, let's.

805
00:45:53,800 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 1: Get to a few questions Sash, Chuck. I'm going to

806
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:02,719
Speaker 1: try to get through three or four here before I

807
00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:09,800
Speaker 1: get to my college football preview slash reaction to the rankings.

808
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 1: It's not going to be as ranty as you might suspect.

809
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:17,960
Speaker 1: I'll let you know. This next question comes from Brian

810
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 1: and he gives me a little let cheeseery, which we

811
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:23,319
Speaker 1: know what that means if you know you know, Hey, Chuck,

812
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:25,200
Speaker 1: my new favorite part of the podcast is the Weekly

813
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 1: time Machine. I like hearing that, you know what. It's

814
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 1: kind of becoming my favorite segment to produce. I thoroughly

815
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 1: enjoyed this week's topic of the end of World War One.

816
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 1: He's referring to last week anyway, got me thinking back

817
00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 1: to what I was taught, and you're exactly right, and

818
00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 1: focused on German surrender, the harsh reparations, and now that

819
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:40,640
Speaker 1: led to the rise of Hitler in World War Two.

820
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 1: I'd love to go deeper into the fall of the

821
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 1: Ottoman Empire and how it led us to where we

822
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:46,320
Speaker 1: are today, any books to recommend on it?

823
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:46,800
Speaker 2: Thanks?

824
00:46:47,080 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 1: You know what I'm gonna I don't have him. I

825
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 1: don't have any good books right now on that. I

826
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 1: want to do some You would think here, why don't

827
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:57,359
Speaker 1: you do the research before you read the questions? That's

828
00:46:57,400 --> 00:47:00,600
Speaker 1: not how I roll guys now. But you know what

829
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 1: my substack and this is a good way, and yes,

830
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 1: this is my conspiratory way to get more of you

831
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 1: to go subscribe to my free substack. I am not

832
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:14,239
Speaker 1: going to ever put it behind a paywall. And I

833
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 1: know that substack sometimes lowers the algorithm on free substacks,

834
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 1: but I don't care. I want to be totally ad supported.

835
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 1: I don't want to be captured by an audience and

836
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 1: worried about an audience. So this is a free and

837
00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 1: it will be free.

838
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:30,279
Speaker 2: I will not.

839
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:34,840
Speaker 1: Be, you know, sneakily making you pay down the road here.

840
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:38,840
Speaker 2: But this week, for what it's worth.

841
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:41,439
Speaker 1: I have a big column on Gavin Newsom and sort

842
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 1: of what explains why Gavin Newsom's rise in the twenty

843
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:49,759
Speaker 1: twenty eight sweep steaks if you will. But in there

844
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:52,680
Speaker 1: I also do I did some book recommendations on James

845
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:56,440
Speaker 1: Garfield and what's been happening with that miniseries Death by Lightning.

846
00:47:56,840 --> 00:48:00,600
Speaker 1: I am this coming Tuesday, going to make one of

847
00:48:00,600 --> 00:48:05,640
Speaker 1: my sidebars segments of that, and I update that newsletter

848
00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:11,040
Speaker 1: every Tuesday, and this one I will put my favorite

849
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:13,040
Speaker 1: Automan Empire books. I just don't have a good list

850
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:14,359
Speaker 1: in front of me. I want to get it right,

851
00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:17,799
Speaker 1: and you know, there's different aspects of it. You know,

852
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:22,319
Speaker 1: there's some good books just about sort of Turkey and

853
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:26,279
Speaker 1: sort of the rise of Turkey post World War One.

854
00:48:26,800 --> 00:48:30,280
Speaker 1: Obviously plenty of books I've been sort of I'm probably

855
00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:35,200
Speaker 1: over subscribed on books about sort of Israel before nineteen

856
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:37,520
Speaker 1: forty eight, and there'll be some in there. But I

857
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:40,880
Speaker 1: will put that together. I think that's a nice public

858
00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:45,080
Speaker 1: service and a very fair request. Next question comes from

859
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 1: Aaron from Skokee, Illinois. I probably said this to you before.

860
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:51,320
Speaker 1: I think you've written in before, because when I see Skokie,

861
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:54,920
Speaker 1: I still think of one of my early memories as

862
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:58,360
Speaker 1: a kid was that Clan march in Skokie back in

863
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:00,960
Speaker 1: the day, and this.

864
00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:02,399
Speaker 2: Is similar theme.

865
00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:04,400
Speaker 1: He goes, I was fascinated by your recent commentary in

866
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 1: World War One. As a gen xer, I only learned

867
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 1: about the war through an American lens and didn't grasp

868
00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 1: the full extent of the Ottoman Empire's role or the

869
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:13,719
Speaker 1: consequences of European powers carving up the Middle East. And

870
00:49:13,800 --> 00:49:16,160
Speaker 1: here again, do you have any nonfiction book recommendations that

871
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 1: offer a broader global perspective on that war. I've always

872
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:20,400
Speaker 1: been a history buff, but World War One tends to

873
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 1: get overshadowed by World War Two. I'm so happy that

874
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:27,880
Speaker 1: this is the reaction I've gotten for what it's worth. Aaron,

875
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 1: same answer that I just want to prove to all

876
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:32,239
Speaker 1: of you that I read your questions and that we

877
00:49:32,320 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 1: do this, both Aaron and Brian. I promise you I'm

878
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:37,839
Speaker 1: going to put together a very thorough World War One

879
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:43,279
Speaker 1: holiday reading list. Perhaps it'll be stocking stuffers for your

880
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:46,040
Speaker 1: family to get you if you want that. And there's

881
00:49:46,080 --> 00:49:48,399
Speaker 1: also I'm going to point I'm actually going to find

882
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:53,000
Speaker 1: a couple of you know, one of my favorite I

883
00:49:53,160 --> 00:49:55,799
Speaker 1: binged and I can't remember the name of it now,

884
00:49:55,840 --> 00:50:00,200
Speaker 1: but it was like a fifty part podcast series. He's

885
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:02,200
Speaker 1: on the fall of the Roman Empire. It was about

886
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:06,800
Speaker 1: five years ago and it was sort of and it's

887
00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:12,719
Speaker 1: there are some terrific podcast historians out there, and I'm

888
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 1: going to do a little research to see if there's

889
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:16,760
Speaker 1: any good ones on World War One. I've not fully

890
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:19,360
Speaker 1: dove in on that topic in the pod in the

891
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:21,879
Speaker 1: audio space, but I will also try to do that

892
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:25,160
Speaker 1: as well. All right, next question comes from Lynn Oh,

893
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:28,400
Speaker 1: a longtime fan from Boise. I appreciate your recommendations on

894
00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:30,799
Speaker 1: changing the US Constitution. Bringing in experts for a deep

895
00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:33,239
Speaker 1: dive would make a great segment. In Idaho, voters have

896
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:35,839
Speaker 1: a direct say in constitutional amendments, unlike at the federal level.

897
00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:38,520
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on making voter approval for amendments

898
00:50:38,520 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 1: to the next amendment itself?

899
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:40,240
Speaker 2: Huh?

900
00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:42,680
Speaker 1: I know the textualists would bulk, but we need more

901
00:50:42,719 --> 00:50:45,200
Speaker 1: citizen engagement and this could reinforce the idea that the

902
00:50:45,239 --> 00:50:48,920
Speaker 1: Constitution is a living document. Linn O go Idaho Statesman.

903
00:50:49,160 --> 00:50:52,799
Speaker 1: What I love about that The Idaho Statesman is sort

904
00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:56,359
Speaker 1: of the pay has been the paper of record when

905
00:50:56,400 --> 00:51:00,000
Speaker 1: it comes to Idaho news for most of my lifetime,

906
00:51:00,239 --> 00:51:05,960
Speaker 1: so nice to see that there. It's interesting on whether

907
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 1: you know a lot of countries do national elections and

908
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 1: constitutional amendments right, Ireland did one on reproductive rights. That

909
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:20,360
Speaker 1: got certainly generated a lot of international news. We're a republic,

910
00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:23,080
Speaker 1: not a direct democracy. My argument against it, it would be

911
00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:26,279
Speaker 1: that we are not a democracy or a republic, and

912
00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:29,480
Speaker 1: in a republic it is you. In fact, I'm one

913
00:51:29,520 --> 00:51:36,960
Speaker 1: of those, I'm I could I think that because we're

914
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:41,200
Speaker 1: a republic, we shouldn't have state based referendum. But that's

915
00:51:41,280 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 1: that ship is sale that we are a republic, meaning

916
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:49,799
Speaker 1: a representative democracy more so than a direct democracy. But

917
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:53,360
Speaker 1: I am all four. Look, I think I think the

918
00:51:53,440 --> 00:51:55,760
Speaker 1: case for a republic when you had a limited amount

919
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:58,680
Speaker 1: of information that was you were even able to share

920
00:51:58,719 --> 00:52:03,600
Speaker 1: back in the day, you know, just logistically and geographically,

921
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:05,000
Speaker 1: you could say it made a lot of sense.

922
00:52:05,080 --> 00:52:05,760
Speaker 2: Today it doesn't.

923
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:09,279
Speaker 1: Right Today, we all have equal access to information. We

924
00:52:09,320 --> 00:52:11,320
Speaker 1: all have an equal opportunity to be informed.

925
00:52:12,560 --> 00:52:12,719
Speaker 2: You know.

926
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:15,160
Speaker 1: It's not as if there's there's these barriers. You know,

927
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:18,080
Speaker 1: there's we have a public education system that I wish

928
00:52:18,120 --> 00:52:20,360
Speaker 1: were better, but it's certainly pretty good, good enough to

929
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:22,320
Speaker 1: sort of inform us enough on how to be a citizen.

930
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:26,759
Speaker 1: And I think you would need a constitutional amendment. And

931
00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:29,479
Speaker 1: I think if you pass constitutional amendment that says all

932
00:52:29,640 --> 00:52:34,719
Speaker 1: future constitutional amendments need you know, need to be passed

933
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:37,720
Speaker 1: by the populace. You know, then hey, it's an amendment

934
00:52:37,760 --> 00:52:40,560
Speaker 1: in the Constitution. I think where you would where you

935
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:44,480
Speaker 1: would have a real debate is whether and I can

936
00:52:44,520 --> 00:52:48,399
Speaker 1: tell you this right now, I think small c conservatives

937
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:52,360
Speaker 1: on this would argue for a threshold of say sixty percent.

938
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:55,600
Speaker 1: And you could make an argument that given that there

939
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:58,880
Speaker 1: is you know, either two thirds, three fourths. You know,

940
00:52:59,080 --> 00:53:01,880
Speaker 1: there's certainly these bigger requirements in order to get a

941
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:06,480
Speaker 1: constitutional an amendment, an amendment added to the constitution. You know,

942
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 1: what number do you use to pass the constual? Is

943
00:53:10,120 --> 00:53:13,200
Speaker 1: it sixty percent? Is it sixty six percent? Two thirds?

944
00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:15,120
Speaker 1: Do you go all the way up to seventy five percent?

945
00:53:15,160 --> 00:53:17,760
Speaker 1: So I do think that would be the among probably

946
00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:23,719
Speaker 1: the biggest debate about what should that number be. But

947
00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:30,000
Speaker 1: in general, I mean, I think that anything we can

948
00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:35,160
Speaker 1: do to bring more democracy closer to the people. Right

949
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:36,880
Speaker 1: this is why I believe we've got to double the

950
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:40,919
Speaker 1: size of the House of Representatives, you know, I think

951
00:53:41,040 --> 00:53:45,839
Speaker 1: is an improvement in where we are. And so you know,

952
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:48,239
Speaker 1: I could be talked into it, but.

953
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:52,640
Speaker 2: You know, I don't know.

954
00:53:52,680 --> 00:53:55,360
Speaker 1: I've thought about imagine this. Somebody said, you know what

955
00:53:55,680 --> 00:53:58,680
Speaker 1: if we had retention elections for our Supreme Court justices

956
00:53:58,719 --> 00:54:02,480
Speaker 1: instead of instead of you know, basically they were there,

957
00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:04,080
Speaker 1: they were there for life, but they'd have to go

958
00:54:04,120 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 1: through in a retention election. And I was just thinking,

959
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:10,440
Speaker 1: can you imagine a national retention election and the money

960
00:54:10,440 --> 00:54:13,200
Speaker 1: behind it for Saint Clarence Thomas, right, and the amount

961
00:54:13,280 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 1: of what the ads would look like. I don't know,

962
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:17,800
Speaker 1: like that that could be, that could be something that

963
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:23,160
Speaker 1: we would we might regret, but look, like I said,

964
00:54:23,200 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 1: I'm for whatever it would take to get more people

965
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:29,840
Speaker 1: engaged in our process. I think we desperately need a

966
00:54:29,840 --> 00:54:32,759
Speaker 1: constitutional convention. We need to update the rules of the

967
00:54:32,760 --> 00:54:35,399
Speaker 1: democracy to fit the twenty first century. And I think

968
00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:38,319
Speaker 1: it's pretty clear that we're not there. And I think

969
00:54:38,480 --> 00:54:42,600
Speaker 1: ultimately the frustration that's out there with the populace is

970
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:46,959
Speaker 1: because politicians are further away from their electorates than they've

971
00:54:47,000 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 1: ever been before. All of their money comes from big

972
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:54,440
Speaker 1: rich downers, It doesn't come from grassroots or the people.

973
00:54:56,040 --> 00:54:57,120
Speaker 2: You have these.

974
00:54:56,960 --> 00:55:01,200
Speaker 1: Giant congressional districts that population have the population size of

975
00:55:01,200 --> 00:55:03,680
Speaker 1: a major city, which means all you need is a

976
00:55:03,680 --> 00:55:07,360
Speaker 1: small faction of said major city to then represent the

977
00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:10,320
Speaker 1: entire congressional district, which is no longer a community of interest.

978
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:13,600
Speaker 1: So I do think the biggest problem we have generically

979
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:15,759
Speaker 1: in politics today is that people are too far away

980
00:55:15,800 --> 00:55:18,120
Speaker 1: from the politicians, and we've got to figure out how

981
00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:20,279
Speaker 1: to close that gap. It's a problem with the media, right.

982
00:55:20,360 --> 00:55:23,839
Speaker 1: We gutted local media, and so now I would say

983
00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:26,680
Speaker 1: national media is too far away from the people we cover. Right,

984
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:29,640
Speaker 1: there's too many reporters in Washington and not enough everywhere else,

985
00:55:29,920 --> 00:55:34,880
Speaker 1: says the guy doing his podcast from the suburbs of Washington, DC. Anyway,

986
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:37,920
Speaker 1: I'm a well aware of irony. Next question comes from

987
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:41,080
Speaker 1: Reggie in Austin, Texas. He says, Chuck Guy is the

988
00:55:41,120 --> 00:55:43,640
Speaker 1: following with the subject line about coming back, as in

989
00:55:43,960 --> 00:55:45,640
Speaker 1: back to a time when the parties actually work to

990
00:55:45,640 --> 00:55:48,000
Speaker 1: get things done. In addition to reform when it comes

991
00:55:48,000 --> 00:55:49,719
Speaker 1: to how the districts are drawn, would there be any

992
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:51,680
Speaker 1: way to reform the primary system which makes it more

993
00:55:51,680 --> 00:55:54,360
Speaker 1: and more difficult for center left and center right candidates

994
00:55:54,400 --> 00:55:56,160
Speaker 1: to win. I view most of our primaries now like

995
00:55:56,440 --> 00:55:59,000
Speaker 1: the runoff in the presidential race in Chile, where you

996
00:55:59,000 --> 00:56:01,040
Speaker 1: have a far right candidate posed by a communist.

997
00:56:01,440 --> 00:56:04,480
Speaker 2: Yes, and can you imagine? Like, what do you do? Right?

998
00:56:04,960 --> 00:56:07,919
Speaker 1: I'm enjoying the new podcast, thank you, and I'm also

999
00:56:07,920 --> 00:56:11,600
Speaker 1: now following the newsgirls I, Mabel, and Rent are happy

1000
00:56:11,600 --> 00:56:14,560
Speaker 1: to hear that. I hope you, Reggie, I'm glad you

1001
00:56:14,600 --> 00:56:18,239
Speaker 1: have made that fine choice. Look, I think we I

1002
00:56:18,440 --> 00:56:20,919
Speaker 1: am going to reiterate something I've said before. I think

1003
00:56:20,960 --> 00:56:24,640
Speaker 1: partisan primaries that are funded by the taxpayers are unconstitutional.

1004
00:56:25,120 --> 00:56:27,600
Speaker 1: I think the idea that I have to become a

1005
00:56:27,640 --> 00:56:30,799
Speaker 1: member of a private organization in order to participate in

1006
00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:34,920
Speaker 1: a primary that is funded with my taxpayer dollars is

1007
00:56:35,440 --> 00:56:36,160
Speaker 1: a poll tax.

1008
00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:38,960
Speaker 2: And I believe.

1009
00:56:38,680 --> 00:56:44,440
Speaker 1: We've decided that that's that that's unconstitutional. You can make

1010
00:56:44,480 --> 00:56:48,080
Speaker 1: an equal protection argument on that. I think that if

1011
00:56:48,080 --> 00:56:52,399
Speaker 1: you're not registered as a Democrat or Republican, you are

1012
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:56,399
Speaker 1: sometimes banned from certain being able to vote in certain

1013
00:56:56,440 --> 00:57:01,040
Speaker 1: primaries some states, some state parties do have allowed independence

1014
00:57:02,160 --> 00:57:04,879
Speaker 1: to vote and some don't. H I think we got

1015
00:57:04,920 --> 00:57:06,200
Speaker 1: to go to all part all. I think we had

1016
00:57:06,200 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 1: to get rid of partisan primaries. I'm fine if you

1017
00:57:08,200 --> 00:57:13,360
Speaker 1: want to put if you want to put a partisan

1018
00:57:13,440 --> 00:57:16,880
Speaker 1: label by your name on an all you know, basically

1019
00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:19,880
Speaker 1: an all voter primary. But I think I think it's

1020
00:57:19,880 --> 00:57:23,240
Speaker 1: pretty clear, and especially now with so many in gen

1021
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:25,880
Speaker 1: Z so disillusioned by either of the two major parties

1022
00:57:25,920 --> 00:57:29,680
Speaker 1: that are registering as independence. I mean a plurality of

1023
00:57:29,760 --> 00:57:32,920
Speaker 1: voters in America prefer to be registered as no party

1024
00:57:33,000 --> 00:57:35,640
Speaker 1: or independent rather than being registered with either the donkeys

1025
00:57:35,720 --> 00:57:39,439
Speaker 1: or the elephants. So I think it's I think it's

1026
00:57:39,640 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 1: well past time and this and the and you know,

1027
00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:45,560
Speaker 1: the reason why that two major parties fight this is

1028
00:57:45,600 --> 00:57:49,640
Speaker 1: because the two major parties are controlled by base activists,

1029
00:57:50,000 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 1: base progressives and base conservatives, and they only have a

1030
00:57:55,440 --> 00:57:59,120
Speaker 1: chance at getting power through a rigged primary process. Yes,

1031
00:57:59,200 --> 00:57:59,920
Speaker 1: I called it rag.

1032
00:58:00,120 --> 00:58:00,600
Speaker 2: I think the.

1033
00:58:01,360 --> 00:58:05,440
Speaker 1: Keeping other voters out, you know, you know, siloing your

1034
00:58:05,520 --> 00:58:08,600
Speaker 1: selection there. I think a political party is welcome to

1035
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:11,280
Speaker 1: endorse a candidate, go for it, and then let the

1036
00:58:11,360 --> 00:58:14,680
Speaker 1: voter decide if that endorsement means anything to them, But

1037
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:17,560
Speaker 1: to then shut out people from having any sort of

1038
00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:20,400
Speaker 1: choice on who makes the general election ballot, especially when

1039
00:58:20,400 --> 00:58:23,280
Speaker 1: you're using taxpayer dollars. So I think there needs to

1040
00:58:23,320 --> 00:58:27,280
Speaker 1: be smarter lawyers attacking this situation. All the good election

1041
00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:29,680
Speaker 1: lawyers work for the two parties. We need some election

1042
00:58:29,760 --> 00:58:32,360
Speaker 1: lawyers that work for the rest of us. But I

1043
00:58:32,360 --> 00:58:36,400
Speaker 1: think I think in you know, full full disclosure, you know,

1044
00:58:36,440 --> 00:58:38,600
Speaker 1: with some of these organizations that are working to try

1045
00:58:38,600 --> 00:58:43,080
Speaker 1: to open up primaries, I've gotten to know them and

1046
00:58:43,280 --> 00:58:47,280
Speaker 1: I've been working them hard on this issue. I think

1047
00:58:47,320 --> 00:58:49,680
Speaker 1: this is I think this is one of the things

1048
00:58:49,760 --> 00:58:54,240
Speaker 1: that is eating away at the democracy. I think polarization

1049
00:58:54,560 --> 00:58:56,840
Speaker 1: is a virus. And I think if we want to

1050
00:58:56,880 --> 00:58:59,640
Speaker 1: deal with polaris, if we want better elected officials, we

1051
00:58:59,680 --> 00:59:03,040
Speaker 1: need we need a better system and a better set

1052
00:59:03,040 --> 00:59:07,360
Speaker 1: of incentives. And if an elected official knows every voter

1053
00:59:07,480 --> 00:59:09,240
Speaker 1: is going to be on the ballot for a primary election,

1054
00:59:09,280 --> 00:59:11,760
Speaker 1: I promise you they're going to make different decisions when

1055
00:59:11,760 --> 00:59:16,919
Speaker 1: they vote on certain pieces of legislation. I think that's

1056
00:59:16,960 --> 00:59:20,080
Speaker 1: the single biggest thing we could do over The next

1057
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:23,160
Speaker 1: is that, And then the second is the barrier to

1058
00:59:23,200 --> 00:59:25,160
Speaker 1: the barrier to get on the ballot as an independent

1059
00:59:25,600 --> 00:59:31,160
Speaker 1: or as a third party. Again, many most states rig

1060
00:59:31,200 --> 00:59:34,360
Speaker 1: it so that the Democrats or the Republicans have easier

1061
00:59:34,440 --> 00:59:37,720
Speaker 1: access to the ballot than if you're an independent or

1062
00:59:37,720 --> 00:59:42,240
Speaker 1: a member of another party. Again, I believe there's an

1063
00:59:42,240 --> 00:59:45,360
Speaker 1: equal protection argument there, and I believe that rigging a

1064
00:59:45,440 --> 00:59:49,480
Speaker 1: prime access to the ballot through the prism of the

1065
00:59:49,480 --> 00:59:56,920
Speaker 1: two major parties is unconstitutional and yes, undemocratic. All right,

1066
00:59:57,000 --> 01:00:00,280
Speaker 1: last question before I get my college football rants, go here.

1067
01:00:00,360 --> 01:00:04,080
Speaker 1: Long time fansac the hotline on call days it's not

1068
01:00:04,200 --> 01:00:07,480
Speaker 1: on call. Well, I guess our blog was called on call.

1069
01:00:07,520 --> 01:00:09,120
Speaker 1: I think we did that. We were always on call.

1070
01:00:09,200 --> 01:00:11,600
Speaker 1: We had last call, and they'd still have last call

1071
01:00:11,600 --> 01:00:15,520
Speaker 1: and wake up call. I still have a few episodes

1072
01:00:15,560 --> 01:00:18,520
Speaker 1: saved on iTunes. Oh, look at that. I do vaguely

1073
01:00:18,600 --> 01:00:21,080
Speaker 1: remember when we were doing those things. Watching your Decision

1074
01:00:21,080 --> 01:00:22,760
Speaker 1: to ask stream tonight and wanted to share quick thought.

1075
01:00:22,800 --> 01:00:25,240
Speaker 1: I've heard you mentioned how DEM favorability is low despite

1076
01:00:25,240 --> 01:00:27,800
Speaker 1: great results. As a Democratic county official, i'd probably tell

1077
01:00:27,800 --> 01:00:30,560
Speaker 1: Aposter I feel unfavorably too. I think, by the way,

1078
01:00:30,600 --> 01:00:32,560
Speaker 1: you're not alone. I think one of the reasons Chuck

1079
01:00:32,560 --> 01:00:36,280
Speaker 1: Schumer's numbers suck. It's not just Republicans that don't like them,

1080
01:00:36,320 --> 01:00:39,120
Speaker 1: it's fellow Democrats that don't like them. Anyway, the party

1081
01:00:39,160 --> 01:00:41,919
Speaker 1: failed to keep Trump out yep, But like many hardcore Dems,

1082
01:00:41,960 --> 01:00:44,200
Speaker 1: I'm still walking through fire to vote next November. There's

1083
01:00:44,200 --> 01:00:48,320
Speaker 1: a real internal grievance this time, not just among independents. Pete, Pete,

1084
01:00:48,360 --> 01:00:50,440
Speaker 1: I think you're right, and I know this. I mean,

1085
01:00:50,440 --> 01:00:52,440
Speaker 1: it was the same thing we saw, you know, in

1086
01:00:52,480 --> 01:00:55,600
Speaker 1: the run up to when the Republicans went ahead and

1087
01:00:55,680 --> 01:00:59,600
Speaker 1: got behind Trump. If you recall, you would start to

1088
01:00:59,600 --> 01:01:04,240
Speaker 1: see growing disapproval of Republican officials by Republicans. And there

1089
01:01:04,280 --> 01:01:06,440
Speaker 1: was a time where Democrats are reading that as if oh,

1090
01:01:06,720 --> 01:01:08,960
Speaker 1: Republicans are sour on their own side, that they wouldn't

1091
01:01:09,040 --> 01:01:11,880
Speaker 1: support Republicans. That isn't the case. And I think you

1092
01:01:12,200 --> 01:01:17,640
Speaker 1: make an important point. I want to single out of

1093
01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:20,920
Speaker 1: line you said, because this, to me is this single

1094
01:01:22,440 --> 01:01:26,360
Speaker 1: most I think it's the biggest reason why a chunk

1095
01:01:26,360 --> 01:01:29,480
Speaker 1: of voters are so sour in the Democratic Party. The

1096
01:01:29,520 --> 01:01:34,360
Speaker 1: party failed to keep Trump out. Joe Biden had one job.

1097
01:01:35,560 --> 01:01:39,520
Speaker 1: He was elected to do one thing, turned the page

1098
01:01:39,520 --> 01:01:42,800
Speaker 1: on Donald Trump, and he didn't do it. Now you

1099
01:01:42,840 --> 01:01:46,040
Speaker 1: can say he tried and failed. You can say he

1100
01:01:46,320 --> 01:01:48,440
Speaker 1: pursued it the wrong way. You could say he was

1101
01:01:48,520 --> 01:01:50,479
Speaker 1: the wrong man for the job. We could go through

1102
01:01:50,720 --> 01:01:54,680
Speaker 1: a variety of reasons. But I do believe that the

1103
01:01:54,720 --> 01:01:58,960
Speaker 1: anger at Joe Biden is all about he, and he

1104
01:01:59,080 --> 01:02:02,280
Speaker 1: alone is why why Donald Trump is back. And I

1105
01:02:02,320 --> 01:02:03,920
Speaker 1: think people and I think there are going to be

1106
01:02:03,920 --> 01:02:09,560
Speaker 1: Democrats that will will hold Biden to account on the

1107
01:02:09,560 --> 01:02:12,720
Speaker 1: return of Donald Trump for the rest of their lives.

1108
01:02:13,680 --> 01:02:16,040
Speaker 1: It is why Joe Biden can't raise money for his library.

1109
01:02:16,320 --> 01:02:18,959
Speaker 1: It is why Joe Biden got invited to exactly one

1110
01:02:19,040 --> 01:02:20,880
Speaker 1: campaign rally over the last three months, and it was

1111
01:02:20,920 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 1: for the Nebraska State Party Democrats, rank and file, activist Democrats,

1112
01:02:28,640 --> 01:02:32,120
Speaker 1: independents that didn't like Trump. Right, the anger is not

1113
01:02:32,160 --> 01:02:35,080
Speaker 1: a Trump anymore. Yes, that anger is still there. And

1114
01:02:35,240 --> 01:02:38,880
Speaker 1: like you, we've seen this, right, which is I don't

1115
01:02:38,960 --> 01:02:42,800
Speaker 1: like the Democratic Party they gave they were so bad

1116
01:02:42,840 --> 01:02:45,440
Speaker 1: at their job. They brought back the return of Donald Trump.

1117
01:02:45,760 --> 01:02:48,200
Speaker 1: But it doesn't mean you're not going to not vote

1118
01:02:48,240 --> 01:02:50,919
Speaker 1: for an opposition to Donald Trump. Right, So I get

1119
01:02:50,920 --> 01:02:55,960
Speaker 1: where you're going here. But I do think the single

1120
01:02:56,360 --> 01:03:00,840
Speaker 1: biggest sort of elephant in the room that Democrats haven't

1121
01:03:00,840 --> 01:03:04,960
Speaker 1: had a haven't had this full conversation, but with the

1122
01:03:05,000 --> 01:03:07,680
Speaker 1: real anger about Biden was like you had one job

1123
01:03:08,640 --> 01:03:11,000
Speaker 1: and you failed to do that job, and you instead

1124
01:03:11,560 --> 01:03:14,520
Speaker 1: sort of let people whispering you, and you let your

1125
01:03:14,720 --> 01:03:18,760
Speaker 1: presidency get hijacked by the left in ways that you

1126
01:03:18,840 --> 01:03:24,080
Speaker 1: thought was a good idea, and all you did was

1127
01:03:24,440 --> 01:03:29,600
Speaker 1: create a situation where Donald Trump came back again. Some

1128
01:03:29,720 --> 01:03:32,240
Speaker 1: of it may not have been in his control, but

1129
01:03:32,520 --> 01:03:36,000
Speaker 1: I think for many voters that you know, Joe Biden

1130
01:03:36,040 --> 01:03:40,200
Speaker 1: was very few Democrats had Joe Biden as their first choice.

1131
01:03:40,240 --> 01:03:44,640
Speaker 1: He was pretty much everybody's, you know, nobody's last choice,

1132
01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:47,640
Speaker 1: and he was everybody's second or third choice. But the

1133
01:03:47,680 --> 01:03:50,040
Speaker 1: assumption was he was going to be a calming presence

1134
01:03:50,840 --> 01:03:52,480
Speaker 1: and he was going to be able to turn the page.

1135
01:03:52,680 --> 01:03:54,880
Speaker 1: I do think, and I'm going to point you back

1136
01:03:54,880 --> 01:03:57,560
Speaker 1: to my substack this week. I do think why the

1137
01:03:57,640 --> 01:04:03,440
Speaker 1: single most important attribute that I think Democratic voters are

1138
01:04:03,440 --> 01:04:07,120
Speaker 1: going to be looking for in the next Democratic presidential

1139
01:04:07,160 --> 01:04:13,480
Speaker 1: nominee is somebody who's ready to act, somebody who isn't

1140
01:04:13,600 --> 01:04:17,920
Speaker 1: sloganeering but is doing right. I think one of the

1141
01:04:17,960 --> 01:04:21,600
Speaker 1: reasons why Gavin Newsom has frankly had shocked me, but

1142
01:04:22,040 --> 01:04:25,200
Speaker 1: he is sort of rocketed to already the top of

1143
01:04:25,280 --> 01:04:28,320
Speaker 1: any presidential primary poll. You ask whether it's a poll

1144
01:04:28,360 --> 01:04:31,480
Speaker 1: of Democrats in New Hampshire, a national primary poll or

1145
01:04:31,520 --> 01:04:34,240
Speaker 1: any you pick a state and he is somewhere in

1146
01:04:34,360 --> 01:04:38,560
Speaker 1: the top three, and the other two usually are AOC Bernie,

1147
01:04:38,840 --> 01:04:41,480
Speaker 1: you know Bernie actually Les, you'll see AOC there. She's

1148
01:04:41,520 --> 01:04:43,760
Speaker 1: already been a national figure for some time. And then

1149
01:04:43,760 --> 01:04:46,440
Speaker 1: you might see Pete Budagdge, who's run for president before.

1150
01:04:46,840 --> 01:04:49,840
Speaker 1: It's more impressive to me that Gavin Newsom, who's never

1151
01:04:49,920 --> 01:04:53,800
Speaker 1: run before and really did not have a national identity

1152
01:04:54,080 --> 01:04:57,000
Speaker 1: before the last six months. I know those of us

1153
01:04:57,000 --> 01:04:58,960
Speaker 1: in politics think of Gavin Newsom as a guy that's

1154
01:04:58,960 --> 01:05:00,480
Speaker 1: been around a while, but he's it's really been a

1155
01:05:00,880 --> 01:05:05,640
Speaker 1: you know, a star in California, not necessarily a national figure.

1156
01:05:05,960 --> 01:05:11,160
Speaker 1: He's a national figure now. And I think Democrats that

1157
01:05:11,240 --> 01:05:13,640
Speaker 1: are picking him at the moment seem as somebody, Hey,

1158
01:05:13,800 --> 01:05:16,320
Speaker 1: he went and did something he didn't just you know,

1159
01:05:16,520 --> 01:05:18,280
Speaker 1: this is not going to be a hope and change

1160
01:05:18,320 --> 01:05:21,120
Speaker 1: Democratic primary. This is going to be your goddamn right,

1161
01:05:21,160 --> 01:05:24,560
Speaker 1: I'm going to do this primary. And so I do

1162
01:05:24,600 --> 01:05:27,360
Speaker 1: think that, and I do think the failure of Biden's

1163
01:05:27,600 --> 01:05:32,080
Speaker 1: stylistic and the temperament of Biden, and I wonder is that,

1164
01:05:33,400 --> 01:05:35,360
Speaker 1: you know, I look at an Amiabus share in a

1165
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:38,040
Speaker 1: wes Moore as two candidates that want to be sort

1166
01:05:38,080 --> 01:05:41,080
Speaker 1: of turn the temperature down, turn the page candidates, and

1167
01:05:41,120 --> 01:05:44,040
Speaker 1: it could be by twenty seven, that is, that is

1168
01:05:44,080 --> 01:05:47,640
Speaker 1: where the primary electorate's attitude is. Especially if Democrats win

1169
01:05:47,720 --> 01:05:49,800
Speaker 1: both the House and Senate. I think then maybe though

1170
01:05:50,040 --> 01:05:53,080
Speaker 1: the heat will have backed off a little bit. But

1171
01:05:53,320 --> 01:05:57,720
Speaker 1: if the same frustration that Democrats are expressing like you,

1172
01:05:57,880 --> 01:06:01,520
Speaker 1: Pete right now is there in twenty then I don't

1173
01:06:01,560 --> 01:06:06,040
Speaker 1: know if the moderate and temperament governor idea is going

1174
01:06:06,080 --> 01:06:09,080
Speaker 1: to be as appealing, even if you know, even if

1175
01:06:09,080 --> 01:06:12,600
Speaker 1: it's appealing to somebody like myself, who I considered myself

1176
01:06:12,640 --> 01:06:14,640
Speaker 1: to be more of a swing voter because I'm not

1177
01:06:14,680 --> 01:06:18,240
Speaker 1: comfortable ideologically in either party, that might not be what

1178
01:06:18,320 --> 01:06:22,640
Speaker 1: Democrats want, and they may consider electability not necessarily somebody

1179
01:06:22,680 --> 01:06:25,560
Speaker 1: with the moderate temperament, but somebody with an action temperament,

1180
01:06:26,320 --> 01:06:30,200
Speaker 1: with a take the bull by the horns temperament. Because

1181
01:06:30,240 --> 01:06:32,800
Speaker 1: as I mentioned to you earlier, one of the interesting

1182
01:06:34,560 --> 01:06:37,920
Speaker 1: things in my recent trip to austin my interview with

1183
01:06:37,960 --> 01:06:41,320
Speaker 1: wes Moore and the conversation I observed with Tim Wallas,

1184
01:06:41,760 --> 01:06:43,880
Speaker 1: was that they both came down. They when they were

1185
01:06:43,920 --> 01:06:46,160
Speaker 1: asked to you know what, the question the form of

1186
01:06:46,160 --> 01:06:48,280
Speaker 1: the question of what does Trump do? Well, you know,

1187
01:06:48,360 --> 01:06:51,840
Speaker 1: he's always doing something right. And Democrats are always asking

1188
01:06:51,880 --> 01:06:54,240
Speaker 1: a committee to look at an idea, and then they

1189
01:06:54,320 --> 01:06:56,000
Speaker 1: kick the tires and then they see if an interest

1190
01:06:56,000 --> 01:06:57,919
Speaker 1: group is going to support them, and then maybe they'll

1191
01:06:57,960 --> 01:07:00,560
Speaker 1: implement the idea if they can find the votes. After that,

1192
01:07:00,840 --> 01:07:04,720
Speaker 1: you get my point. So, I mean, we'll see where

1193
01:07:04,720 --> 01:07:06,640
Speaker 1: the attitude of the party is in twenty seven. I

1194
01:07:06,640 --> 01:07:07,760
Speaker 1: think a lot of it will have to do with

1195
01:07:07,800 --> 01:07:11,120
Speaker 1: how successful or not that the party is in twenty six.

1196
01:07:11,800 --> 01:07:16,960
Speaker 1: But I Pete, I think you've put your I think

1197
01:07:17,000 --> 01:07:22,840
Speaker 1: you've really identified the feeling that you have Democratic voters

1198
01:07:22,840 --> 01:07:25,080
Speaker 1: who are going to crawl them broken glass to vote,

1199
01:07:25,720 --> 01:07:28,960
Speaker 1: who have a negative view of the current leadership of

1200
01:07:29,120 --> 01:07:30,120
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party.

1201
01:07:37,840 --> 01:07:39,080
Speaker 2: All right, it's.

1202
01:07:38,920 --> 01:07:42,280
Speaker 1: Time for a little bit on college football. Not the

1203
01:07:42,280 --> 01:07:46,040
Speaker 1: greatest weekend of games. This is this weird weekend where

1204
01:07:46,040 --> 01:07:48,840
Speaker 1: every SEC team plays a group of five or worse

1205
01:07:49,000 --> 01:07:53,520
Speaker 1: team other than Oklahoma. Missouri and for those of us

1206
01:07:53,560 --> 01:07:58,680
Speaker 1: in the two loss column of the college football Playoff,

1207
01:08:00,200 --> 01:08:02,760
Speaker 1: there's a lot of Missouri fans in South Bend and

1208
01:08:02,800 --> 01:08:05,720
Speaker 1: a lot of Missouri fans in Tuscaloosa, and a lot

1209
01:08:05,720 --> 01:08:09,000
Speaker 1: of Missouri fans in Miami, UH and potentially a lot

1210
01:08:09,040 --> 01:08:13,720
Speaker 1: of Missouri fans in in Oregon and southern California. That's

1211
01:08:13,720 --> 01:08:16,799
Speaker 1: the other big game of the weekend, which is Oregon

1212
01:08:16,840 --> 01:08:21,400
Speaker 1: in southern cal UH that they could have some playoff implications.

1213
01:08:21,439 --> 01:08:24,760
Speaker 1: But let me just react a bit to the college

1214
01:08:24,760 --> 01:08:28,679
Speaker 1: football rankings. Believe it or not, I'm feeling I don't

1215
01:08:28,680 --> 01:08:31,320
Speaker 1: want to say bullish about Miami's chances, but I actually

1216
01:08:31,400 --> 01:08:35,280
Speaker 1: think your start that we're that that is, it's now

1217
01:08:35,400 --> 01:08:40,280
Speaker 1: in Miami's control. They can't they obviously they can't lose

1218
01:08:40,280 --> 01:08:42,360
Speaker 1: another game. They got two more games on the road,

1219
01:08:42,360 --> 01:08:46,240
Speaker 1: one against Virginia Tech this weekend in Blacksburg on the

1220
01:08:46,320 --> 01:08:49,479
Speaker 1: week that they hire their new coach. Does that mean

1221
01:08:49,520 --> 01:08:51,599
Speaker 1: players want to play hard because they know the new

1222
01:08:51,640 --> 01:08:53,600
Speaker 1: coach is watching, because I'm sure he's going to be

1223
01:08:53,600 --> 01:08:55,360
Speaker 1: at the game, and that there's going to be because

1224
01:08:55,360 --> 01:08:57,600
Speaker 1: they want to start to drum up enthusiasm for for

1225
01:08:57,680 --> 01:09:01,240
Speaker 1: Franklin or have they already mailed it in?

1226
01:09:01,400 --> 01:09:01,599
Speaker 2: Right?

1227
01:09:03,840 --> 01:09:06,639
Speaker 1: Does this coaching staff know they're all going to get

1228
01:09:07,200 --> 01:09:10,040
Speaker 1: replaced and they all have to look for jobs or

1229
01:09:10,080 --> 01:09:12,000
Speaker 1: do they want to impress the new boss to see

1230
01:09:12,000 --> 01:09:14,880
Speaker 1: if they can stick around. Right, I'm I don't know

1231
01:09:14,880 --> 01:09:17,320
Speaker 1: what the psyche of the tech folks are going to be,

1232
01:09:17,360 --> 01:09:21,280
Speaker 1: and that is but it does it shouldn't matter, right,

1233
01:09:22,840 --> 01:09:25,120
Speaker 1: If Miami is as good as I think they can be,

1234
01:09:26,120 --> 01:09:30,840
Speaker 1: then this is you know, if they are Playoff worthy,

1235
01:09:30,920 --> 01:09:35,080
Speaker 1: then they they smack they smack Tech. You know, it's

1236
01:09:35,080 --> 01:09:37,519
Speaker 1: a thirty one to ten, you know, something like that,

1237
01:09:37,760 --> 01:09:40,840
Speaker 1: thirty four to you know, you know, forty two seventeen,

1238
01:09:41,360 --> 01:09:44,360
Speaker 1: but it's something thorough anything less than that, and this

1239
01:09:44,479 --> 01:09:46,840
Speaker 1: is going to be held against them. But I think

1240
01:09:46,840 --> 01:09:48,920
Speaker 1: if they can do that and then they whip Pit

1241
01:09:49,040 --> 01:09:52,760
Speaker 1: the following week, another tough game, road game Saturday after Thanksgiving,

1242
01:09:54,760 --> 01:09:58,080
Speaker 1: you know, I think the path is there because it's

1243
01:09:58,080 --> 01:10:02,080
Speaker 1: interesting to hear the Player Off Committee spin, you know,

1244
01:10:02,120 --> 01:10:03,760
Speaker 1: when they're asked the question of why do you have

1245
01:10:03,800 --> 01:10:05,679
Speaker 1: Notre Dame ranked a head of Miami when Miami?

1246
01:10:05,680 --> 01:10:06,680
Speaker 2: When are you And.

1247
01:10:06,600 --> 01:10:08,400
Speaker 1: They're saying, well, we're not factoring in the head to

1248
01:10:08,439 --> 01:10:11,360
Speaker 1: head because they're not being considered within the same pool.

1249
01:10:11,400 --> 01:10:14,120
Speaker 1: And they it's it's funny to me all the different

1250
01:10:14,240 --> 01:10:16,800
Speaker 1: rules that they sort of let us know about and

1251
01:10:16,800 --> 01:10:19,519
Speaker 1: they trickle them out because they still don't. They still

1252
01:10:19,560 --> 01:10:22,719
Speaker 1: have never really said what the criteria is on whether

1253
01:10:22,760 --> 01:10:26,040
Speaker 1: wins matter more than losses right right now, they've decided

1254
01:10:26,040 --> 01:10:29,120
Speaker 1: losses matter more than wins, because if if wins mattered

1255
01:10:29,120 --> 01:10:30,280
Speaker 1: more than losses, Miami would be.

1256
01:10:30,320 --> 01:10:31,200
Speaker 2: Ranked ahead of Notre Dame.

1257
01:10:32,240 --> 01:10:35,680
Speaker 1: But they've decided losses matter more than wins, and that's

1258
01:10:35,720 --> 01:10:38,599
Speaker 1: why Notre Dame's ahead of both Miami and Alabama. By

1259
01:10:38,640 --> 01:10:41,280
Speaker 1: the way, I wanted to welcome Paul Finbaum to the

1260
01:10:41,479 --> 01:10:46,720
Speaker 1: Miami's Getting Screwed Here committee, I noticed I have a

1261
01:10:46,760 --> 01:10:49,920
Speaker 1: feeling he's only there because Alabama got dropped below Notre Dame.

1262
01:10:50,640 --> 01:10:55,519
Speaker 1: Because again, Alabama's wins are terrific, but they're being punished

1263
01:10:55,640 --> 01:10:58,040
Speaker 1: for the Florida State loss and punished for losing at

1264
01:10:58,040 --> 01:11:00,320
Speaker 1: home to Oklahoma in a game that they should have

1265
01:11:00,360 --> 01:11:04,080
Speaker 1: won if you believe in these SP plus rankings, et cetera.

1266
01:11:05,560 --> 01:11:07,839
Speaker 1: But it's interesting if you look at the two loss teams,

1267
01:11:08,040 --> 01:11:16,360
Speaker 1: right You've got Utah, Miami, Notre Dame, Alabama, Oklahoma, and

1268
01:11:16,479 --> 01:11:20,519
Speaker 1: then maybe Oregon if they lose to USC, and then

1269
01:11:20,640 --> 01:11:23,360
Speaker 1: USC jumps in there, and then you might have Michigan.

1270
01:11:23,400 --> 01:11:25,599
Speaker 1: If they beat Ohio State, then there suddenly in the

1271
01:11:25,640 --> 01:11:30,640
Speaker 1: conversation on this sort of where things go. But I

1272
01:11:30,760 --> 01:11:36,519
Speaker 1: do think that Miami's creeped up here. If they were

1273
01:11:36,600 --> 01:11:41,280
Speaker 1: ranked one slot higher, they would be in the same group.

1274
01:11:41,600 --> 01:11:41,760
Speaker 2: Right.

1275
01:11:41,800 --> 01:11:44,240
Speaker 1: They apparently decide who the top four teams are. Then

1276
01:11:44,280 --> 01:11:48,799
Speaker 1: they then five through eight are are identified and compared

1277
01:11:48,800 --> 01:11:51,920
Speaker 1: against each other. Then nine through twelve, well, Miami's in

1278
01:11:51,960 --> 01:11:55,719
Speaker 1: the next tier of thirteen through through sixteen. If Miami's

1279
01:11:55,760 --> 01:11:59,040
Speaker 1: in the same quote like grouping of Notre Dame, then

1280
01:11:59,120 --> 01:12:02,360
Speaker 1: the head to head according to these according to these

1281
01:12:02,400 --> 01:12:08,439
Speaker 1: playoff committee experts, will start to matter more. Bimi wins

1282
01:12:08,439 --> 01:12:11,720
Speaker 1: out and wins both games big and Notre Dame does

1283
01:12:11,760 --> 01:12:14,360
Speaker 1: the same. But you know, I do, I'm starting to

1284
01:12:14,400 --> 01:12:15,920
Speaker 1: believe that they're going to get there, And I do

1285
01:12:16,000 --> 01:12:20,439
Speaker 1: think I'm sorry by the way, the lack of there's

1286
01:12:20,479 --> 01:12:23,120
Speaker 1: a lot of people who don't watch college football. It

1287
01:12:23,160 --> 01:12:25,280
Speaker 1: turns out they watch their team, but they don't really

1288
01:12:25,280 --> 01:12:28,320
Speaker 1: pay attention to the rest. This is true of politics,

1289
01:12:28,560 --> 01:12:32,280
Speaker 1: and it happens all the time. In case you're wondering,

1290
01:12:32,400 --> 01:12:35,120
Speaker 1: I get all of my expert college football advice from

1291
01:12:35,240 --> 01:12:39,320
Speaker 1: gambling podcasts on college football, not from any of the

1292
01:12:39,400 --> 01:12:42,599
Speaker 1: punditry that you see on Fox or ESPN, because frankly,

1293
01:12:42,640 --> 01:12:46,240
Speaker 1: the gamblers give you a it is a much more

1294
01:12:46,320 --> 01:12:53,280
Speaker 1: data driven analysis that you get right of offensive metrics

1295
01:12:53,320 --> 01:12:57,479
Speaker 1: defensive metrics now gamblers sometimes get, you know, I do think.

1296
01:12:58,479 --> 01:13:02,880
Speaker 1: I do think Mario Chrystobal's reputation for blowing games, for

1297
01:13:02,920 --> 01:13:05,759
Speaker 1: his teams losing games that they shouldn't. It's true at Oregon,

1298
01:13:05,800 --> 01:13:08,760
Speaker 1: it's been true at Miami is for some reason, being

1299
01:13:08,800 --> 01:13:12,479
Speaker 1: held like it's making for whatever reason, Miami's losses are

1300
01:13:12,479 --> 01:13:16,080
Speaker 1: being held more accountable to Miami because of this supposed

1301
01:13:16,400 --> 01:13:20,840
Speaker 1: crystabal reputation. I don't think that's fair to me. It's like,

1302
01:13:22,720 --> 01:13:24,400
Speaker 1: you know, it should be blank slate, here's team AY,

1303
01:13:24,439 --> 01:13:27,360
Speaker 1: here's team B, and if it were blind taste as

1304
01:13:27,400 --> 01:13:30,639
Speaker 1: team A team B. Miami's going to win that argument

1305
01:13:30,720 --> 01:13:32,719
Speaker 1: just about every time. Against Not Dame for one simple

1306
01:13:32,760 --> 01:13:36,439
Speaker 1: fact the head to head and again, yes, the final

1307
01:13:36,479 --> 01:13:38,559
Speaker 1: score was three points, but if you watch that game,

1308
01:13:38,600 --> 01:13:40,599
Speaker 1: Miami was in charge of that game the whole time.

1309
01:13:40,640 --> 01:13:42,479
Speaker 1: They basically had a double digit lead for most of

1310
01:13:42,520 --> 01:13:45,719
Speaker 1: the game. They were in control of that game until

1311
01:13:45,960 --> 01:13:48,800
Speaker 1: Mario didn't know how to just sort of slow the.

1312
01:13:48,760 --> 01:13:49,840
Speaker 2: Game down and end it.

1313
01:13:51,160 --> 01:13:53,600
Speaker 1: But it did give it did give Notre Dame the

1314
01:13:54,320 --> 01:13:57,599
Speaker 1: perception of coming back there at the end, but it

1315
01:13:57,720 --> 01:14:02,320
Speaker 1: really wasn't. It was a pretty thorough defeat by Miami

1316
01:14:02,720 --> 01:14:04,559
Speaker 1: over Notre Dame. Now you can make the argument out

1317
01:14:04,640 --> 01:14:07,519
Speaker 1: CJ Car's first game. Yeah, that's true. So it was

1318
01:14:07,560 --> 01:14:11,200
Speaker 1: Carson Beck's first game. It was Malachi Tony's first game, Ruben,

1319
01:14:11,280 --> 01:14:14,800
Speaker 1: you know, so there's you know, I think that that

1320
01:14:14,960 --> 01:14:17,400
Speaker 1: argument sort of wears me out. And now here's where

1321
01:14:17,439 --> 01:14:19,800
Speaker 1: I think Notre Dame might actually have more problems on

1322
01:14:19,840 --> 01:14:22,040
Speaker 1: that committee. As much as I think this committee is

1323
01:14:22,080 --> 01:14:24,320
Speaker 1: making decisions not based on what happens on the field,

1324
01:14:24,680 --> 01:14:27,559
Speaker 1: but what happens in the ratings and what happened and

1325
01:14:27,600 --> 01:14:32,240
Speaker 1: what ESPN cares about the most, I do think there's

1326
01:14:32,280 --> 01:14:35,679
Speaker 1: a lot of conference commissioners and conference ads who can't

1327
01:14:35,720 --> 01:14:38,880
Speaker 1: stand that Notre Dame continues to not have to be

1328
01:14:39,000 --> 01:14:41,840
Speaker 1: in a conference. And the fact of the matter is,

1329
01:14:42,640 --> 01:14:46,320
Speaker 1: none of these college football pundits have acknowledged the fact

1330
01:14:46,360 --> 01:14:49,120
Speaker 1: that Notre Dame's last two games where against teams that

1331
01:14:49,280 --> 01:14:52,160
Speaker 1: chose not to compete at one hundred percent against Notre Dame.

1332
01:14:52,320 --> 01:14:55,120
Speaker 1: So essentially they got to play two exhibition games, one

1333
01:14:55,120 --> 01:14:58,280
Speaker 1: against Navy, one against BIT against two teams that did

1334
01:14:58,320 --> 01:15:01,320
Speaker 1: not care and the co coaching staff. I'm not saying

1335
01:15:01,360 --> 01:15:03,160
Speaker 1: the players didn't care, but the coaching staff did not

1336
01:15:03,200 --> 01:15:05,760
Speaker 1: coach to win the game. They held out players that

1337
01:15:05,800 --> 01:15:09,040
Speaker 1: they thought mattered more for their conferences. And again, it's

1338
01:15:09,080 --> 01:15:13,840
Speaker 1: a very logical thing to do, but it should. It

1339
01:15:14,280 --> 01:15:17,200
Speaker 1: should count against Notre Dame. It doesn't mean they defeated.

1340
01:15:17,600 --> 01:15:19,880
Speaker 1: It's an impressed I'm not impressed with their pit victory

1341
01:15:19,880 --> 01:15:26,000
Speaker 1: because they didn't face the best version of PITT. So now,

1342
01:15:26,280 --> 01:15:28,240
Speaker 1: is it Notre Dame's fault that teams are choosing to

1343
01:15:28,280 --> 01:15:30,439
Speaker 1: do that. No, but they're not in a conference and

1344
01:15:30,520 --> 01:15:35,160
Speaker 1: so they don't they don't have that pressure of winning

1345
01:15:35,320 --> 01:15:38,680
Speaker 1: or losing conference games. Conference games are just have more

1346
01:15:38,720 --> 01:15:41,200
Speaker 1: pressure because you face the same team all the time,

1347
01:15:42,000 --> 01:15:45,120
Speaker 1: and especially if you're the bigger brand, they're always obsessed

1348
01:15:45,120 --> 01:15:48,120
Speaker 1: with beating you, and it's and it's in conference, and

1349
01:15:48,160 --> 01:15:52,120
Speaker 1: there's it just matters more conference games. It adds pressure.

1350
01:15:52,400 --> 01:15:55,160
Speaker 1: They're harder all of those things, and Notre Dame doesn't

1351
01:15:55,200 --> 01:15:59,479
Speaker 1: have any of those difficult type games because now, in

1352
01:15:59,520 --> 01:16:03,560
Speaker 1: some ways, the conference path, particularly ACC Big twelve and

1353
01:16:03,800 --> 01:16:06,840
Speaker 1: Group of five teams, since the committee is going to

1354
01:16:06,880 --> 01:16:10,160
Speaker 1: be incredibly biased against every conference that's not named the

1355
01:16:10,200 --> 01:16:14,160
Speaker 1: SEC and even the Big Ten. Right, your conference games

1356
01:16:14,160 --> 01:16:17,479
Speaker 1: matter so much more than your non conference games, and

1357
01:16:18,160 --> 01:16:21,320
Speaker 1: Notre Dame plays nothing but non conference games. So I'm

1358
01:16:21,400 --> 01:16:23,880
Speaker 1: just saying I think that's there's a chance that this

1359
01:16:23,960 --> 01:16:28,439
Speaker 1: is one of those cases where Miami might get you know,

1360
01:16:28,680 --> 01:16:31,360
Speaker 1: I think deserves the bid over Notre Dame. But the

1361
01:16:31,400 --> 01:16:34,160
Speaker 1: reasoning they may get it is it irrit you know,

1362
01:16:34,320 --> 01:16:37,120
Speaker 1: it's about pressuring Notre Dame to join a conference and

1363
01:16:37,160 --> 01:16:39,559
Speaker 1: to have a real conference schedule and to go through there.

1364
01:16:39,600 --> 01:16:42,400
Speaker 1: And I do think if Notre Dame wants a simpler

1365
01:16:42,560 --> 01:16:46,160
Speaker 1: path to the college football Playoff, they'd be better off

1366
01:16:46,400 --> 01:16:49,120
Speaker 1: joining the ACC as a full member. They would likely

1367
01:16:49,120 --> 01:16:52,160
Speaker 1: almost always make the a SEC final. But of course

1368
01:16:52,439 --> 01:16:54,439
Speaker 1: that was the pitch Florida State made to Miami coming

1369
01:16:54,439 --> 01:16:56,519
Speaker 1: into the ACC, and we know how well that worked out.

1370
01:16:58,200 --> 01:17:02,880
Speaker 1: But it would would make everything I think cleaner in

1371
01:17:02,960 --> 01:17:06,840
Speaker 1: this and it would it would actually probably still get

1372
01:17:06,880 --> 01:17:11,120
Speaker 1: It would still create more leverage and it was sort

1373
01:17:11,120 --> 01:17:12,880
Speaker 1: of equal to veil. I do think there are going

1374
01:17:12,960 --> 01:17:16,240
Speaker 1: to be more conferences in teams that wanta that want

1375
01:17:16,240 --> 01:17:19,760
Speaker 1: to try to have a bit more of a of

1376
01:17:19,800 --> 01:17:23,280
Speaker 1: a leverage against sort of this this sec sort of

1377
01:17:23,280 --> 01:17:28,080
Speaker 1: financial juggernaut that ESPN is trying to create. Anyway. But

1378
01:17:28,280 --> 01:17:32,760
Speaker 1: the point is, I'm starting to feel slightly better that

1379
01:17:32,840 --> 01:17:35,759
Speaker 1: if Miami wins out, they're going to get treated fairly

1380
01:17:35,800 --> 01:17:41,479
Speaker 1: here in this, in this, in this UH comparison, and

1381
01:17:41,479 --> 01:17:45,920
Speaker 1: that UH I saw that Yeah, yeah, who sports is

1382
01:17:46,000 --> 01:17:49,040
Speaker 1: chief college football writer said it would be it would

1383
01:17:49,080 --> 01:17:53,719
Speaker 1: be pretty much erase whatever little credibility this committee has

1384
01:17:53,800 --> 01:17:55,640
Speaker 1: with many college football fans, and they don't have a

1385
01:17:55,640 --> 01:17:59,160
Speaker 1: lot of credibility, particularly with fans of the a CEC. Mean,

1386
01:17:59,200 --> 01:18:01,720
Speaker 1: what they will was done to Florida State to this

1387
01:18:01,840 --> 01:18:05,840
Speaker 1: day is to me an unforgivable sin and a reminder

1388
01:18:05,880 --> 01:18:08,559
Speaker 1: that what happens on the field does not matter to

1389
01:18:08,640 --> 01:18:11,200
Speaker 1: this committee. They just want to They're just putting on

1390
01:18:11,200 --> 01:18:14,960
Speaker 1: a TV show. They don't care about the merits of

1391
01:18:14,960 --> 01:18:16,559
Speaker 1: what happens on the field, which I think is just

1392
01:18:16,600 --> 01:18:22,040
Speaker 1: a terrible lesson to teach young men when it comes

1393
01:18:22,080 --> 01:18:28,080
Speaker 1: to life. You know, if you rig a sporting event.

1394
01:18:28,200 --> 01:18:31,360
Speaker 1: And that's what you're doing when you punish a team

1395
01:18:31,400 --> 01:18:33,720
Speaker 1: that goes undefeated and is a conference champion, and yet

1396
01:18:33,760 --> 01:18:37,439
Speaker 1: you say they don't belong because you think they that

1397
01:18:37,600 --> 01:18:41,840
Speaker 1: without a top level starting quarterback, they're going to get

1398
01:18:42,120 --> 01:18:44,920
Speaker 1: bounced hard a I don't think that was true in

1399
01:18:44,920 --> 01:18:47,800
Speaker 1: that year. I'm convinced to this day that Florida State

1400
01:18:47,840 --> 01:18:50,360
Speaker 1: beats Michigan because that's who they would have played. They

1401
01:18:50,400 --> 01:18:52,080
Speaker 1: probably have been the four seed and they would have

1402
01:18:52,120 --> 01:18:54,479
Speaker 1: played Michigan. I think they'd have beaten Michigan because that's

1403
01:18:54,520 --> 01:18:57,320
Speaker 1: how good that defense was, and they would have had

1404
01:18:57,320 --> 01:19:00,920
Speaker 1: a month to prepare and get that offense there. And

1405
01:19:00,960 --> 01:19:03,120
Speaker 1: I don't and don't give me what happened with the

1406
01:19:03,160 --> 01:19:06,519
Speaker 1: Georgia Florida State matchup because Florida State all their good

1407
01:19:06,520 --> 01:19:09,040
Speaker 1: players didn't play in that game. So it is that

1408
01:19:09,080 --> 01:19:12,560
Speaker 1: game is meaningless to me and has no impact whatsoever

1409
01:19:12,920 --> 01:19:17,040
Speaker 1: on what was an egregious decision then. And if keeping

1410
01:19:17,040 --> 01:19:19,400
Speaker 1: Miami out despite winning a head to head a Notre

1411
01:19:19,479 --> 01:19:23,599
Speaker 1: Dame would be equally as egregious and would discourage teams

1412
01:19:23,600 --> 01:19:28,639
Speaker 1: from ever scheduling tough out of conference games. If you're

1413
01:19:28,640 --> 01:19:30,960
Speaker 1: saying those out of conference games don't matter whether you

1414
01:19:31,040 --> 01:19:33,920
Speaker 1: win them, and that's what they would be saying by

1415
01:19:33,960 --> 01:19:36,240
Speaker 1: not crediting, by putting Notre Dame in ahead of Miami.

1416
01:19:36,680 --> 01:19:39,080
Speaker 1: They would say, then why schedule Notre Dame at all?

1417
01:19:39,600 --> 01:19:40,080
Speaker 2: Screw them?

1418
01:19:40,120 --> 01:19:42,040
Speaker 1: Let them play Northern Illinois every week.

1419
01:19:43,520 --> 01:19:43,920
Speaker 2: Anyway.

1420
01:19:44,040 --> 01:19:49,120
Speaker 1: Games that I'm obviously the most Missouri Oklahoma. There's lots

1421
01:19:49,120 --> 01:19:52,160
Speaker 1: of rumors at Missouri's bo Prebula is going to try

1422
01:19:52,200 --> 01:19:55,760
Speaker 1: to make this game. Kudos to Missouri that they want

1423
01:19:55,800 --> 01:19:59,720
Speaker 1: to keep fighting. I have to tell you, I think

1424
01:19:59,720 --> 01:20:01,639
Speaker 1: this is going to be a nail bider. I expect

1425
01:20:01,680 --> 01:20:04,200
Speaker 1: this to be a close game. I don't have a

1426
01:20:04,200 --> 01:20:07,400
Speaker 1: lot of confidence. This is one of those Oklahoma just

1427
01:20:07,439 --> 01:20:11,759
Speaker 1: won the biggest game of Brent Venable's tenure there, and.

1428
01:20:14,439 --> 01:20:15,000
Speaker 2: Put it this.

1429
01:20:14,920 --> 01:20:18,280
Speaker 1: Way, I'd be all over the underdog on a point

1430
01:20:18,280 --> 01:20:23,400
Speaker 1: spread cover if given the opportunity, and perhaps I will

1431
01:20:23,400 --> 01:20:28,599
Speaker 1: take that opportunity. Usc Organ. It's at Oregon, an old

1432
01:20:28,640 --> 01:20:31,519
Speaker 1: Pac twelve matchup that used to decide who was going

1433
01:20:31,600 --> 01:20:33,840
Speaker 1: to win the Pac twelve. Right, Oregon's got an interesting

1434
01:20:33,880 --> 01:20:36,800
Speaker 1: last two games. They got this game so and then

1435
01:20:36,840 --> 01:20:41,040
Speaker 1: they have to play Washington at Washington, and that's that's

1436
01:20:41,080 --> 01:20:44,120
Speaker 1: a real rivalry game. So it you know, throw the

1437
01:20:44,160 --> 01:20:47,880
Speaker 1: record books out right type of thing. So the Big Ten,

1438
01:20:48,760 --> 01:20:50,719
Speaker 1: do they get three teams for sure in the playoff

1439
01:20:51,240 --> 01:20:52,240
Speaker 1: or do they only get two?

1440
01:20:53,760 --> 01:20:54,000
Speaker 2: Right?

1441
01:20:55,000 --> 01:20:59,320
Speaker 1: And you know, if here's your scenario, you know, if

1442
01:20:59,400 --> 01:21:02,680
Speaker 1: Oregon beat USC but loses.

1443
01:21:02,360 --> 01:21:07,439
Speaker 2: To Washington, do they make it I think?

1444
01:21:07,680 --> 01:21:11,479
Speaker 1: And then suddenly it's Oregon Notre Dame Miami? Maybe for

1445
01:21:11,560 --> 01:21:13,720
Speaker 1: that you know two of those last three, who are

1446
01:21:13,760 --> 01:21:16,200
Speaker 1: the two? Do they sort of avoid the Miami Notre

1447
01:21:16,240 --> 01:21:18,720
Speaker 1: Dame discussion and put both Miami Notre Dame and leave

1448
01:21:18,760 --> 01:21:23,920
Speaker 1: Oregon out? Or if it's USC Notre Dame Miami with

1449
01:21:23,960 --> 01:21:26,840
Speaker 1: the two losses, I think USC definitely gets left out there.

1450
01:21:29,240 --> 01:21:32,719
Speaker 1: Is it possible that Big ten only gets two teams? Anyway,

1451
01:21:32,760 --> 01:21:36,880
Speaker 1: it is interesting between Michigan, USC and Oregon. And by

1452
01:21:36,920 --> 01:21:39,559
Speaker 1: the way, I fully expect USC to beat Oregon and

1453
01:21:39,600 --> 01:21:42,040
Speaker 1: lose the UCLA the following week and their rivalry game.

1454
01:21:42,200 --> 01:21:44,639
Speaker 1: Point is both the USC and Oregon this game matters,

1455
01:21:44,840 --> 01:21:47,920
Speaker 1: but they both have a long time rivalry game the

1456
01:21:48,000 --> 01:21:52,240
Speaker 1: following week Oregon with Washington and USC with UCLA. So

1457
01:21:52,439 --> 01:21:56,040
Speaker 1: it's that's gonna be a great game. Notre Dame plays Syracuse.

1458
01:21:56,280 --> 01:21:59,320
Speaker 1: Can they beat Syracuse by a bigger margin then Miami

1459
01:21:59,360 --> 01:22:03,320
Speaker 1: beat Syracuse. Is that the fairest way to measure it? Well,

1460
01:22:03,400 --> 01:22:06,439
Speaker 1: it's going to be a way to measure it. Miami

1461
01:22:06,439 --> 01:22:09,240
Speaker 1: won I think thirty eight to ten. Basically at back

1462
01:22:09,280 --> 01:22:11,639
Speaker 1: door it was thirty eight to three, and then Syracuse

1463
01:22:11,680 --> 01:22:12,880
Speaker 1: back door covered. It was a twenty eight and a

1464
01:22:12,880 --> 01:22:15,320
Speaker 1: half points bred in case you were following at home,

1465
01:22:15,920 --> 01:22:19,519
Speaker 1: and Notre Dame, I think it's favored by thirty five

1466
01:22:19,600 --> 01:22:21,920
Speaker 1: and a half point. So the expectation is Notre Dame

1467
01:22:22,000 --> 01:22:23,720
Speaker 1: is going to run up the score. Are they going

1468
01:22:23,760 --> 01:22:25,040
Speaker 1: to run up the score? Will they?

1469
01:22:25,479 --> 01:22:26,160
Speaker 2: We shall see.

1470
01:22:26,479 --> 01:22:29,320
Speaker 1: Kentucky Vanderbilt. You know, we don't talk about Vanderbilt in

1471
01:22:29,320 --> 01:22:31,160
Speaker 1: the two loss in areas there's almost this assumption that

1472
01:22:31,240 --> 01:22:33,840
Speaker 1: Vanderbilt is is not going to be you know that

1473
01:22:33,880 --> 01:22:36,200
Speaker 1: they're going to be. You know that they wouldn't get

1474
01:22:36,240 --> 01:22:38,280
Speaker 1: in over Notre Dame, they wouldn't get in over Miami.

1475
01:22:38,320 --> 01:22:42,040
Speaker 1: At least this is looking like the assumption these days.

1476
01:22:43,640 --> 01:22:45,920
Speaker 1: Kentucky's five and five, they need one more win to

1477
01:22:45,920 --> 01:22:48,680
Speaker 1: be Bowl eligible. They got Louisville next week. That's not

1478
01:22:48,760 --> 01:22:51,679
Speaker 1: an easy game, although we'll see if Louisville has anything

1479
01:22:51,680 --> 01:22:54,760
Speaker 1: to play for. They really don't have anything to play for.

1480
01:22:55,320 --> 01:22:59,000
Speaker 1: But Kentucky might care about Bowl eligibility. Mark Stoops might care.

1481
01:23:01,800 --> 01:23:04,120
Speaker 1: That game smells like one that's going to be sneaky

1482
01:23:04,160 --> 01:23:08,400
Speaker 1: clothes on that front. Pay attention to there's a whole

1483
01:23:08,439 --> 01:23:11,080
Speaker 1: bunch of five and five teams. Tulane appears to be

1484
01:23:11,080 --> 01:23:12,639
Speaker 1: one of the front runners for the group of five

1485
01:23:12,680 --> 01:23:14,679
Speaker 1: slot in the playoff. Well, they have to go to Temple.

1486
01:23:14,720 --> 01:23:17,400
Speaker 1: Temple's five and five. They need one more win. They

1487
01:23:17,439 --> 01:23:20,280
Speaker 1: care about being Bowl eligible. Keep an eye on that game.

1488
01:23:20,320 --> 01:23:25,080
Speaker 1: That's going to be interesting. Pitt Georgia Tech. This is

1489
01:23:25,160 --> 01:23:29,320
Speaker 1: probably as important as there is for the ACC. Obviously,

1490
01:23:29,520 --> 01:23:32,840
Speaker 1: Miami needs Pitt to win this game. I think had

1491
01:23:32,920 --> 01:23:36,200
Speaker 1: BC knocked off Georgia Tech last week then Pitt beat

1492
01:23:36,360 --> 01:23:38,439
Speaker 1: then the path for Miami to get into the ACC

1493
01:23:38,600 --> 01:23:41,920
Speaker 1: title game would have been a bit more plausible. Less

1494
01:23:41,960 --> 01:23:46,320
Speaker 1: so now Tennessee, Florida. How much does either team How

1495
01:23:46,360 --> 01:23:49,000
Speaker 1: much does Florida care about this game? That's a question

1496
01:23:49,080 --> 01:23:52,439
Speaker 1: that I have. They look like they kind of quit

1497
01:23:52,760 --> 01:23:56,479
Speaker 1: when they got.

1498
01:23:57,160 --> 01:23:58,599
Speaker 2: Beat pretty badly by Kentucky.

1499
01:23:58,640 --> 01:24:00,960
Speaker 1: But you know they gave will miss a little bit

1500
01:24:00,960 --> 01:24:03,240
Speaker 1: more of a game than I expected there. And then

1501
01:24:03,240 --> 01:24:05,680
Speaker 1: a big game in the Big Twelve is BYU at Cincinnati.

1502
01:24:07,040 --> 01:24:11,120
Speaker 1: Let's just say BYU is uncomfortably. You know, they only

1503
01:24:11,120 --> 01:24:13,719
Speaker 1: have one loss. They are two slots ahead of Miami.

1504
01:24:14,680 --> 01:24:18,280
Speaker 1: Nobody expects the Big twelve to get two teams. But

1505
01:24:18,760 --> 01:24:21,040
Speaker 1: can you sit there and ignore an eleven to one

1506
01:24:21,160 --> 01:24:25,120
Speaker 1: one BYU team SMU at eleven and one got in.

1507
01:24:25,479 --> 01:24:27,160
Speaker 1: I don't know how you leave an eleven and one

1508
01:24:27,200 --> 01:24:29,280
Speaker 1: team out. Let's just say for those of us that

1509
01:24:29,360 --> 01:24:33,840
Speaker 1: want to see Miami into this playoff, we're big Bearcats

1510
01:24:33,920 --> 01:24:35,759
Speaker 1: fans this week on that front.

1511
01:24:35,800 --> 01:24:36,960
Speaker 2: So there you go.

1512
01:24:37,360 --> 01:24:40,000
Speaker 1: That's how I'll be watching college football. And what's exciting

1513
01:24:40,080 --> 01:24:43,200
Speaker 1: for me is I'm watching with my son this weekend.

1514
01:24:43,240 --> 01:24:47,320
Speaker 1: He's in town. My daughter, she's now living and dying

1515
01:24:47,479 --> 01:24:51,599
Speaker 1: by all things hurricanes. So uh, it'll be a lot

1516
01:24:51,600 --> 01:24:54,200
Speaker 1: of fun and a little bit tense in the Todd

1517
01:24:54,240 --> 01:24:55,559
Speaker 1: household over the next two weekends.

1518
01:24:55,600 --> 01:24:59,320
Speaker 2: But with that, enjoy your weekend and I'll see that Monday.

1519
01:25:00,360 --> 01:25:00,719
Speaker 1: Hey,