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Speaker 1: What's going on everybody. Scott Bogman here for Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: to tell you my favorite picks and props for Week

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Speaker 1: thirteen of college football season. Remember if you want to

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Speaker 1: follow along, if you love my picks or love to

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Speaker 1: fade them, you can check me out on the Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros app or bettingpros dot com. Slash Bogner put all

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Speaker 1: of my picks in on those so you can follow along.

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Speaker 1: Looking back at last week picks not grade three and

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Speaker 1: four props pretty good, seven and two on the yardage

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Speaker 1: I was over two on the touchdowns, but seven to

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Speaker 1: two on the yardage props was nice. But three and

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Speaker 1: four on the picks kind of evened me out for

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Speaker 1: the week here. So let's get into week thirteen in

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Speaker 1: these picks. I know some of these picks you guys

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Speaker 1: have heard on the shows that I've done with Seth

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Speaker 1: and with Terrell before here. But we are scrapping that

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Speaker 1: Ohio State Indiana game. I like Indiana plus the points,

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Speaker 1: but it fell to ten from thirteen and a half,

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Speaker 1: so we're going to ditch that one. We're going to

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Speaker 1: start at Ole Miss minus ten and a half at

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Speaker 1: Florida here, and look this is just what we can

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Speaker 1: say that these teams are both different than when they

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Speaker 1: started the season, right, Like, Florida is definitely better and

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Speaker 1: they beat LS last week. They beat LS with seven sacks, hels.

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Speaker 1: You failed to convert twice on fourth down, they missed

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Speaker 1: a field goal, they fumbled, they first forced to settle

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Speaker 1: for three a bunch of times. I just don't think

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Speaker 1: Florida has the ability to do that versus Ole Miss.

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Speaker 1: I think Ole Miss is also a different team. They're

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Speaker 1: a different team than the one that lost to Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: They're a different team than the team that lost to LSU.

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Speaker 1: They came out and they thumped Arkansas. They beat Georgia

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Speaker 1: kind of going away. I think they're just playing at

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Speaker 1: a different level right now. And since halftime at that

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma game, they have outscored their opponent's spy or They

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Speaker 1: put up one hundred and seven points in those ten quarters.

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Speaker 1: So the offense is really clicking for Mississippi right now.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna lay the ten and a half even on

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Speaker 1: the road of Florida and take them. Florida is hunting

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Speaker 1: for a bull birth, but they play Florida State next week,

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Speaker 1: so the pressure is off of them. And if you

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Speaker 1: want to say ole Miss is in a you know,

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Speaker 1: look ahead to the egg ball, I mean it's a

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Speaker 1: rivalry game that's maybe possible. Florida State is playing Florida

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Speaker 1: next week though that's also a rivalry game, so they're

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Speaker 1: both kind of in that same look ahead spot. And

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Speaker 1: Mississippi State is really not a threat for ole Miss

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Speaker 1: right now, so I love laying the ten and a

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Speaker 1: half and taking ole Miss in that game. Let's go

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Speaker 1: over to Colorado at Kansas over fifty nine and a half,

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Speaker 1: and Colorado has played like a team possessed offensively. In

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Speaker 1: the four games after losing to k State, they have

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Speaker 1: averaged thirty nine and a half points per game four

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Speaker 1: hundred yards and Kansas has been playing much much better.

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Speaker 1: But it's mainly the offense for them that is doing

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Speaker 1: the heavy lifting, you know, forty two points against Iowa State.

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Speaker 1: They ran through a tough defense in BYU and they

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Speaker 1: only had two hundred and forty two yards and seventeen

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Speaker 1: points in that game. But Colorado has been giving up points.

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Speaker 1: So I just think that this top ten passing offense

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Speaker 1: that Kansas or excuse me, that Colorado brings in is

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Speaker 1: going to roll right over Kansas. They passed it an

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Speaker 1: almost seventy percent clip and Colorado scored forty nine points

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Speaker 1: with only twenty four minutes and twenty two seconds of

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Speaker 1: possession against Utah. So if you talk about efficient offenses,

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Speaker 1: Colorado has it right now. I think they do the

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Speaker 1: heavy lifting here. I think they score forty two, maybe

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Speaker 1: even more points than that to get us to this total.

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Speaker 1: So I think we can get to sixty with no

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Speaker 1: problem in this game. And I was wrong last week, right,

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Speaker 1: that was one of the games I missed. I said,

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Speaker 1: Utah drags you into the mud, and Colorado refused to

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Speaker 1: be dragged into the mud. So we're learning, we're adapting,

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Speaker 1: and we're taking Colorado in the over this week. BYU

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Speaker 1: at Arizona State. I'm going to go the over forty

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Speaker 1: eight and a half in this game. And BYU has

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Speaker 1: been clicking on all cylinders recently on offense. But the

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Speaker 1: one big factor in this game is that Arizona State

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Speaker 1: has a terrible blitzing defense and retslaugh or JQ retslaugh.

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Speaker 1: The quarterback for BYU is just so much better in

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Speaker 1: a clean pocket. ASU's been putting just no pressure, redslaughs

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Speaker 1: completion adjusted completion percentage drops from seventy five point seven

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Speaker 1: percent in a clean pocket to fifty three point four

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Speaker 1: is turnover worthy play rate goes from two point one

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Speaker 1: to eight point two if he's under pressure. And ASU

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Speaker 1: has just not been putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They've

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Speaker 1: been holding onto the ball, They've been outscoring people, but

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Speaker 1: they have not been harassing quarterbacks. In the last three

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Speaker 1: games they've played, they have four sacks. Three of those

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Speaker 1: were on UCF red shirt freshman quarterback Dylan Rizzick, making

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Speaker 1: his second collegiate start. So I just think that you

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Speaker 1: know a team like ASU who is on a roll,

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Speaker 1: and I think they are definitely going to put up

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Speaker 1: points because that's what they've been doing. Sam Levitt has

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Speaker 1: been awesome. They have can skataboo back like this offense

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Speaker 1: is humming right now for Arizona State, So I definitely

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Speaker 1: think they get points. My concern coming in was BYU,

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Speaker 1: but with that weak pass rush from Arizona State, I

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Speaker 1: think that they get it done and we can get

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Speaker 1: the over forty eight and a half. We're gonna go

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Speaker 1: with a combo here. We're gonna take RICE minus six

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Speaker 1: and a half at UAB and under fifty one and

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Speaker 1: a half, and Rice has just been playing better football

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Speaker 1: since they fired former head coach Bloomgren. Here they beat

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Speaker 1: Navy twenty four to ten. They held maybe to two

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixty total yards. They lost in the last

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Speaker 1: two minutes against a nine to two now Memphis team

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Speaker 1: who is one of the better teams in the G five.

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Speaker 1: The best unit on the field in this game is

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Speaker 1: definitely Rice's defense. They have been rolling people. Rice has

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Speaker 1: had only two games over this total, and one was

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Speaker 1: against an FCS team where they scored sixty nine points.

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Speaker 1: So I just think in this game, and especially with Rice,

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Speaker 1: you know, the reason they fired Bloomgren was because of

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Speaker 1: their offense. They have a super strong defense. Their offense

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Speaker 1: this is getting better, but twenty nine points is still

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Speaker 1: the most points that they've scored against an FBS opponent

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Speaker 1: this year. So UAB is just not a good team.

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Speaker 1: We're looking to fire their head coach here soon. I think. So.

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Speaker 1: I think UAB is a bad team. They are at home.

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Speaker 1: But I think with these teams and their records both

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Speaker 1: being bad, you look at this and you go, this

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Speaker 1: may be a slap fight. I don't think so. Rice

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Speaker 1: has come out swinging in the last couple weeks after

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Speaker 1: firing their head coach, So I think they get it done.

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Speaker 1: And I like the under fifty one and a half

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Speaker 1: because Rice has not been putting up points, so they've

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Speaker 1: been beating people with defense. So we're gonna stick to

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Speaker 1: that matra in this game. We're gonna take Missouri and

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Speaker 1: lay the seven and a half on the road at

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Speaker 1: Mississippi State. Missouri may be overrated, and I know Mississippi

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Speaker 1: State has played teams hard. They're six and four against

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Speaker 1: the spread, but Missouri is still one of the best

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Speaker 1: teams in the SEC. They got Brady Cook back last week.

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Speaker 1: He looked much better and healthy finally, and Burden and

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Speaker 1: Weeds are going to shred this secondary even if Drew

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Speaker 1: Pine has to come in and play quarterback. I just

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Speaker 1: think way Missouri is playing the way they played tough

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Speaker 1: against a really good South Carolina team, and we know

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Speaker 1: Mississippi State is in an absolute look at spot. They

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Speaker 1: want to beat Ole Miss. That is their sole focus

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Speaker 1: on the season is to beat Ole Miss in the

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Speaker 1: Egg Bowl next week. I mean, I think that's a

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Speaker 1: pipe dream for them, but I do think that that

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Speaker 1: will distract them a little bit in this game. So

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Speaker 1: Mississippi State has had a good offense all year long,

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Speaker 1: but Missouri plays strong defense, so didn't show it last

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Speaker 1: week again South Carolina, but South Carolina is playing at

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Speaker 1: a different level right now, so I think Missouri thumps

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Speaker 1: Mississippi State. I don't think this game is very very

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Speaker 1: close at all, and I think it's over fairly quickly.

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Speaker 1: The last pick I will give you is Texas Tech.

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Speaker 1: I'm laying the four at Oklahoma State. This is a

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Speaker 1: point in the year where we're on quit watch, right

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Speaker 1: and Oklahoma State looks like they have given up. They

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Speaker 1: lost by ten to Baylor, twenty one to Arizona State,

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Speaker 1: and then twenty five. I'm at TCU. Mike Gundy off

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Speaker 1: a bye has paid off before. I know. I made

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Speaker 1: that point earlier in the year on the show. But

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech is also coming off of a bye, so

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Speaker 1: I think that's kind of null here. And Alan Bowman

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Speaker 1: is starting again for Oklahoma State now that wrangle is out,

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Speaker 1: and he's been benched in both of the last two

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Speaker 1: games that he's played. So Tech beat Iowa State, where

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Speaker 1: they were very competitive against Colorado. I know they lost

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Speaker 1: by fourteen, but one of those was a fumble at

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Speaker 1: the end of the game that Colorado just picked up

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Speaker 1: and ran in, which got me my over. I was

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Speaker 1: very happy about that. But in this seven game losing

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Speaker 1: streak for Oklahoma State, they have allowed at least thirty

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Speaker 1: eight points to their opponents in the last six games.

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Speaker 1: So Texas Tech is going to look to outscore Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: State in this game by a wide margin, and I

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Speaker 1: think it's going to happen. Let's get to the props

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Speaker 1: before we do. If you are looking to up your

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Speaker 1: game in sports betting, join our exclusive sports bet discord

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Speaker 1: community at bettingpros dot com s last Chat. Now only

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Speaker 1: can you connect with expert handicappers who provide free picks

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Speaker 1: for the NBA, NFL, MLB, college sports player props, live betting,

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Speaker 1: and more, but now you can also participate in our

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Speaker 1: weekly community picks. Cast your vote and see how your

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Speaker 1: picks stack up against the experts and track your success.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go over to my touchdown calls. First,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna go with Trey Harris, a wide receiver for

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Speaker 1: ole Miss, coming back in this game at Florida. He

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Speaker 1: scored in six of the seven games that he's played

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Speaker 1: this year, and I just like I said before, I

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Speaker 1: think ole Miss is playing at a different level on

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Speaker 1: offense right now. They get back their best playmaker as well.

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Speaker 1: We saw Florida kind of get smashed and laid down

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Speaker 1: in that second half against Texas. I think this is

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Speaker 1: a similar game. I think Trey Harris can score easily.

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Speaker 1: It is minus one forty five, so not the best odds,

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Speaker 1: but I mean, right now, the guys that score touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: their odds are always like minus four hundred, minus three

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Speaker 1: to fifty minus five hundred something like that. So like

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Speaker 1: Ashton is like minus ten thousand or whatever to score

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Speaker 1: every week. It's crazy. All right, Let's go to the

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Speaker 1: next one. Kyle Robachow, the Boston College running back minus

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Speaker 1: one sixty five versus North Carolina. He has eight touchdowns

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Speaker 1: this season, four in the last two games, and twenty

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Speaker 1: one and twenty eight carries in those games. They made

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Speaker 1: a quarterback change, so they're relying more on the run

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Speaker 1: game recently, and UNC has given up fifteen touchdowns this year.

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Speaker 1: BC runs at a fifty five point one percent clip,

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Speaker 1: so I think he's the most likely guy to score

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Speaker 1: in this game. And you compare these, you know, with

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Speaker 1: another one the one plus play. I like, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: go with Jack Andres the cow wide receiver at plus

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Speaker 1: one forty versus Stanford. He's their leading wide receiver in targets, yards,

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Speaker 1: and catches. Stanford has twenty four passing touchdowns allowed this season.

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Speaker 1: That is one hundred and thirtieth in the country, so

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Speaker 1: I think injuries can easily score in this game. Let's

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Speaker 1: go to the passing yards Shador Sanders, Now, this one

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Speaker 1: is like I think it has kicked up a bunch

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Speaker 1: each day, so it may be climbing. If it gets

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Speaker 1: to like three forty, I think I wouldn't like it.

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Speaker 1: But when I saw it, it was three twenty five

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Speaker 1: or three twenty four and a half. At Kansas we

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Speaker 1: talked about this game how Colorado is just efficient. They

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Speaker 1: have not been stopped recently. The weakest part of this

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Speaker 1: Kansas team is the secondary right now, and Sanders has

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Speaker 1: hit three twenty five four times already this year. The

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Speaker 1: running backs are a little bit banged up. He's had

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Speaker 1: eighty four pass attempts in the last two games as well,

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Speaker 1: So I think a lot is adding up to Shador

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Speaker 1: going out with the bang here and really putting it

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Speaker 1: on Kansas reds Laugh the quarterback for BYU. We're going

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Speaker 1: to go over two hundred two and a half passing

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Speaker 1: yards against ASU. I talked about how much better he

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Speaker 1: is in a clean pocket. He's likely to have a

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Speaker 1: lot of clean pockets against Arizona State, as their pass

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Speaker 1: rush has not been effective at all this year. Two

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Speaker 1: hundred and two and a half, especially for a team

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Speaker 1: that is projected to lose a game. If you're coming

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Speaker 1: back late and you're throwing the ball, you could get

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Speaker 1: a lot of that on the final two to three drives.

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Speaker 1: So I think Redslaugh is one of my favorite yardage

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Speaker 1: props is week at two hundred two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Josh Hoover, the quarterback for TCU, over three hundred two

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Speaker 1: and a half passing yards versus Arizona. He's hit this

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Speaker 1: in six of ten games, two of his last three.

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Speaker 1: Arizona is below average against the past. TCUs defense was

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Speaker 1: good against an ok State team that quit, but bad

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Speaker 1: against Baylor Texas Tech. Arizona is still playing for a

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Speaker 1: bull spot, so I think we should see a little

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Speaker 1: back and forth in this game. So I don't think

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Speaker 1: this is a game where U of ALA's down and

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Speaker 1: TCU rolls right over them and they get to run

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Speaker 1: in the second half, I think this is a close game.

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Speaker 1: I think Hoover's going to have to continue passing at

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Speaker 1: a high clip like they've been doing all year. Let's

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Speaker 1: go to some rushing yards here. Nate Nowell, the Missouri

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Speaker 1: running back, over eighty nine and a half rushing yards

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Speaker 1: at Mississippi State. He had twenty seven rushes against South

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Speaker 1: Carolina last week for one hundred and fifty yards. Mississippi

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Speaker 1: State is one twenty seven of one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 1: four teams and rush yards allowed this season. And we

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Speaker 1: talked about Brady Cook. He is back, he is playing better,

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Speaker 1: but he's still not one hundred percent and his coach

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Speaker 1: Drinkwitz has said he's not going to be one hundred

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Speaker 1: percent until after the year most likely. So I do

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Speaker 1: think we see a lot of rushes from Nate Noel

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Speaker 1: in this game, and I think he can hit this

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Speaker 1: yardage prop against a weak Mississippi State rush defense. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go back to the well on this one. Is

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Speaker 1: one of the ones I hit last week. Jeremiah loved,

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Speaker 1: the running back for Notre Dame over seventy three and

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Speaker 1: a half rushing yards versus Army sixteen carries. Last week,

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Speaker 1: he broke a big one and they should continue to

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Speaker 1: feed him the ball in this game. I see this

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Speaker 1: one playing out similar to the Navy game. I know

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Speaker 1: that Trell and Seth did not agree with me on that,

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Speaker 1: but I think that I just think Notre Dame has

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Speaker 1: been pushing teams around, and they've been playing with an

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Speaker 1: edge ever since that NIU loss, and they've been rolling downhill.

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Speaker 1: And in that game against Navy, Jeremiah Love broke a

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Speaker 1: big one, just like he did last week, So I

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Speaker 1: think things are adding up. He's playing downhill right now

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Speaker 1: this season. So we're gonna stick with that one just

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Speaker 1: like we had it last week and hit it. DJ Giddens,

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Speaker 1: Kansas State running back. One hundred and three and a

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Speaker 1: half rushing yards is his prop versus Cincinnati. Giddings's average

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Speaker 1: over one hundred and twelve yards per game since he

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Speaker 1: is eightieth and rush yards allowed did not work out

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Speaker 1: for Kansas State last week, so I think that they

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Speaker 1: want to run the ball, hold the ball a little

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Speaker 1: bit more, keep that defense gassed up. Coming off a loss,

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Speaker 1: you usually want to go back to the run, and

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Speaker 1: I think Kansas State is going to do that with

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Speaker 1: DJ Giddens, so I think this over is definitely in danger.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to receiving yards props. I got four to

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Speaker 1: for you here, Nick Nash for San Jose State, the

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Speaker 1: wide receiver, We're going over one hundred and five and

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Speaker 1: a half now, this is the Friday night game tonight.

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Speaker 1: He is the leading wide receiver in the country. One

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Speaker 1: hundred and five and a half yards I know is big,

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Speaker 1: but unov is one hundred and twentieth and receiving yards allowed.

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Speaker 1: A lot of that is because teams have been playing

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Speaker 1: catch up, but they give up these yards and San

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Speaker 1: Jose State very well could be in that spot. And

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Speaker 1: Nick Nash has had no fewer than fourteen targets over

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Speaker 1: the last four games. There's rain in the forecast, but

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Speaker 1: with wind at less in fifteen miles an hour, rain

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Speaker 1: favors the offense. Defensive guys are backpedaling, more likely to

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Speaker 1: slip than a guy running straight forward. So without the

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Speaker 1: heavy wind and no snow like we saw on that

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Speaker 1: Thursday night game in Cleveland last night, and that's not

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Speaker 1: happening in San Jose, so it favors the offense, So

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Speaker 1: I think we like this total a lot. I'm going

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Speaker 1: to look Ristrepo. I love, but I'm gonna go with

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Speaker 1: his teammate Isaiah Horton here the Miami wide receiver, because

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Speaker 1: his total is only fifty nine and a half receiving

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Speaker 1: yards and it's against wake Forest, and this is a

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Speaker 1: week secondary wake Forest is terrible. Horton has averaged eight

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Speaker 1: point eight targets per game over his last five He's

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Speaker 1: averaging fifty seven yards per game, but he has big

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Speaker 1: spikes in that five game stretch of eighty three, eighty five,

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Speaker 1: and seventy one. There's games where we had like seventeen

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Speaker 1: and thirty four also, so he is a little dicey.

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Speaker 1: But I just think Miami needs to use this game

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Speaker 1: to springboard confidence going into the ACC title game, and uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think Horton's going to be a big,

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Speaker 1: big part of that. We're gonna go back to ASU

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Speaker 1: and go with Jordan Tyson, the ASU wide receiver. Over

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Speaker 1: eighty four and a half receiving yards versus BYU. He's

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Speaker 1: passed this in three of his last four last week

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Speaker 1: seventeen targets, twelve catches, one hundred and seventy six yards

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Speaker 1: and two scores. I like this game to be a shootout.

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Speaker 1: As I mentioned before, I think BYU is gonna be

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Speaker 1: able to score because ASU does not, you know, pressure

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Speaker 1: the passer at all, really, and I think what ASU

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Speaker 1: has been doing, they can score on anybody right now

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Speaker 1: with the way that they've been peaking. So Jordan Tyson

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Speaker 1: should be a huge part of that. And my last

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Speaker 1: player prop elk amain Or, the Stanford wide receiver over

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Speaker 1: fifty six and a half yards receiving at Cal. He's

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Speaker 1: hit this in three straight and against Cal. Gadson and

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Speaker 1: Penia passed this last week. Man for wake Forest had

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Speaker 1: one hundred and ten yards against them. Walker for Oregon State,

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Speaker 1: a team that doesn't pass a lot even had fifty

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Speaker 1: eight yards here. So fifty six and a half for

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Speaker 1: a guy that is going to be a very high

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Speaker 1: pick in the NFL draft. He's a big body, wide receiver.

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Speaker 1: He can box out those corners. I think that he

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Speaker 1: can get that easily. So that is all of my

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Speaker 1: picks and props for today. Next week, the show should

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Speaker 1: be a little bit earlier because of the holiday and everything,

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Speaker 1: so I believe this show will come out on Wednesday

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Speaker 1: next week. But that is it for me this week.

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Speaker 1: Remember you can follow me at Bogman Sports on Twitter.

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Speaker 1: I'm on the Blue Sky now just Scott Bogman there,

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Speaker 1: and of course you can tail all my picks over

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Speaker 1: at Betting Pros or on the Betting Pros app or

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Speaker 1: at Bettingpros dot com slash bogmin and bog m an.

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Speaker 1: That is it for me. Good luck in your bets

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Speaker 1: and I will see you guys next week. Ticket to

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Speaker 1: see everybody.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

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Speaker 2: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

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Speaker 2: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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