WEBVTT - Best NFL Week 7 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 19) 0:00:07.720 --> 0:00:11.040 Hey there everyone. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, 0:00:11.119 --> 0:00:14.280 brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:14.320 --> 0:00:16.360 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Hadi. 0:00:16.760 --> 0:00:18.880 It is time to break down some of our favorite 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:21.600 and least favorite bets for the Week seven NFL slate, 0:00:21.880 --> 0:00:24.400 And with me to talk about it all is Matt Perrault, 0:00:24.520 --> 0:00:27.320 host of Pushing the Odds on SB Nation Radio and 0:00:27.400 --> 0:00:30.240 The Better Network and a ton more which I could list, 0:00:30.640 --> 0:00:32.200 but then we'd be like an hour and a half show. 0:00:32.360 --> 0:00:35.560 You can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. Matt, 0:00:35.760 --> 0:00:37.200 thanks for joining me today. How you doing. 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:38.479 I appreciate it. 0:00:38.520 --> 0:00:40.479 I'm great. Thanks for the invite. Always great to talk 0:00:40.520 --> 0:00:41.479 to somebody in New England. 0:00:42.000 --> 0:00:44.120 Yeah, I know, we were just talking about it. We are, 0:00:44.479 --> 0:00:47.120 you know, Matt's not not near me anymore, but we 0:00:47.320 --> 0:00:49.720 would have been roughly, like, I don't know, like twenty 0:00:49.760 --> 0:00:52.239 minutes away at one point in our lives had we 0:00:52.320 --> 0:00:55.400 met at a different point. But for now we're pretty 0:00:55.440 --> 0:00:58.200 far away. But thanks to advancements and technology, you'd never 0:00:58.240 --> 0:01:00.680 know it if we didn't tell you. So anyway, let's 0:01:00.680 --> 0:01:02.760 get right into it. We had a pretty profitable week. 0:01:02.840 --> 0:01:05.920 Last week, our guest Jared Smollett nailed both the Falcons 0:01:06.120 --> 0:01:09.240 Cardinals over fifty one and the Jets getting seven from 0:01:09.240 --> 0:01:11.679 the Cowboys, as well as his top prop bet, which 0:01:11.720 --> 0:01:14.560 was Matt Ryan over three hundred and fifty passing yards 0:01:14.840 --> 0:01:17.360 at plus one forty six, which he barely squeaked by. 0:01:17.480 --> 0:01:19.800 His only miss was on the Chiefs slaying four to 0:01:19.840 --> 0:01:21.920 the Texans. As for me, I hit on all four 0:01:21.959 --> 0:01:25.720 of my picks, which included the absolutely grotesque Dolphins getting 0:01:25.720 --> 0:01:27.880 three and a half from the Redskins, the Jaguars and 0:01:27.920 --> 0:01:30.360 Saints under forty three and a half, the Jets and 0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:33.880 the Cowboys over forty four, and Stefan Digs over fifty 0:01:33.959 --> 0:01:36.520 nine and a half yards at minus one fourteen, which 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:39.760 he narrowly cleared by eleventy billion yards. Now it is 0:01:39.840 --> 0:01:42.360 up to you, Matt, to keep us going. How confident 0:01:42.400 --> 0:01:43.880 are you on a scale of. 0:01:43.840 --> 0:01:47.160 Like one to forty eight on what game just. 0:01:47.200 --> 0:01:49.240 In might no, just generally, if you're going to be 0:01:49.280 --> 0:01:51.720 able to do a perfect Look, man, we don't go. 0:01:51.960 --> 0:01:54.480 We don't go like half ass. Here we go all 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:56.760 the way. Are you ready to have the clean sweep? 0:01:56.800 --> 0:01:59.040 Get all three of your bets plus your top proper 0:01:59.040 --> 0:02:00.400 Are you ready? Yeah? 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:05.280 I mean, well yeah, given my week last week was horrendous, 0:02:05.320 --> 0:02:07.320 So I started off red hot, I went ten and 0:02:07.360 --> 0:02:10.000 not to start the year out of the NFL, and 0:02:10.000 --> 0:02:12.760 and then as you know, as what happens, you come 0:02:12.800 --> 0:02:17.560 crashing down to earth, and all of my handicapping acumen, 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:20.560 all of my narrative explaining all those games I thought 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:24.000 where I had teams backed up against the wall at home, 0:02:24.120 --> 0:02:28.600 either as small as small favors or small underdogs. You know, Chiefs, 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:31.079 the Rams, and the Browns all let me down brutally 0:02:31.160 --> 0:02:34.760 last week. So I'm I'm hoping to bounce back, and 0:02:34.760 --> 0:02:36.919 hopefully this show will help you help me get back 0:02:36.960 --> 0:02:37.680 on the winning track. 0:02:38.200 --> 0:02:41.480 Yeah, I mean, I'll be honest, because I'm an honest guy. 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:44.400 I like to have credibility with the listeners. The three 0:02:44.480 --> 0:02:46.799 bets that I listed, not even including the prop bet 0:02:46.800 --> 0:02:50.880 with Digs, were you know, three of my better bets 0:02:50.919 --> 0:02:51.399 for the week. 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:51.680 It was. 0:02:51.720 --> 0:02:54.760 It was a rough week overall, I think, generally speaking, 0:02:54.760 --> 0:02:56.640 but it was for a lot of people. And so 0:02:56.680 --> 0:02:59.280 we're gonna, we're gonna definitely bounce back right here, you 0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:01.480 and I we're gonna Now we're gonna go eight for 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:03.320 eight on all our picks, even the ones we'll avoid. 0:03:03.360 --> 0:03:05.560 We'll just be like obviously nobody wants to get into that. 0:03:05.800 --> 0:03:07.280 But before we get into it, I do want to 0:03:07.280 --> 0:03:10.720 announce the winner of the Alvin Kamara helmet giveaway. Congratulations 0:03:10.760 --> 0:03:14.200 to Nick from Massachusetts. Nick has already been notified and 0:03:14.200 --> 0:03:16.079 the helmet is on its way way to go. Nick, 0:03:16.160 --> 0:03:18.639 thanks for listening. Now, if you did not win the 0:03:18.680 --> 0:03:20.880 Kamara helmet, well, how would you like to win a 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:24.280 signed Odell Beckham Junior Brown's helmet, Because that is this 0:03:24.360 --> 0:03:26.680 month's contest. To be entered, just leave a review on 0:03:26.720 --> 0:03:30.120 Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and senday screenshot of that review 0:03:30.200 --> 0:03:33.600 to contest at bettingpros dot com. And of course, if 0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:37.200 you entered a previous contest, you're automatically entered here. All right, 0:03:37.240 --> 0:03:39.200 As always, we're gonna get started with Pick six, where 0:03:39.200 --> 0:03:40.840 both Matt and I are going to give three of 0:03:40.880 --> 0:03:43.440 our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the spread 0:03:43.800 --> 0:03:45.760 or on the over under. Now, as always, I will 0:03:45.800 --> 0:03:47.600 note at the outset that we were recording this on 0:03:47.720 --> 0:03:51.480 Thursday night, shortly after Patrick Mahomes hurt his knee. So 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:53.520 we're not going to be making any picks on the 0:03:53.600 --> 0:03:55.800 Chiefs Broncos game. But if you want to see how 0:03:55.800 --> 0:03:58.400 I picked that game, you can go to Bettingpros dot com. 0:03:58.520 --> 0:04:00.440 That is going to show you how I and every 0:04:00.480 --> 0:04:02.960 betting expert who makes picks on the site made their 0:04:02.960 --> 0:04:05.320 picks for that and every game. Matt and I are 0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:07.800 also going to be using the bettingpros dot Com consensus 0:04:07.800 --> 0:04:10.040 odds here in making our picks. So those are the 0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:13.680 aggregate odds that you'll find available in the market. All right, Matt, 0:04:13.760 --> 0:04:15.600 start us off, what is your first pick? 0:04:15.920 --> 0:04:16.280 All right? 0:04:16.320 --> 0:04:18.840 So let's talk first on what I think It's going 0:04:18.880 --> 0:04:21.520 to be an important game for the sports books. It's 0:04:21.520 --> 0:04:23.520 going to come down to Sunday nights, and so what 0:04:23.640 --> 0:04:25.360 I do on my show, I have the fortunate of 0:04:25.440 --> 0:04:27.479 being in Las Vegas. I work actually out of a 0:04:27.520 --> 0:04:31.200 sports book in the Palms, working very closely with CG Sportsbooks, 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:33.520 so I have the ability to talk to these guys 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:35.440 in what they think they're going to need. 0:04:35.560 --> 0:04:37.440 And you know, there was a famous line back in 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:38.839 the day about a year ago. 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:41.840 Actually G two E is the Gaming Global Gaming Conference 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:43.760 actually this week here in Las Vegas. But a year ago, 0:04:43.800 --> 0:04:46.279 Scott Van Pelt made a very controversial comment by saying 0:04:46.320 --> 0:04:47.520 he wanted to be on the side of the books, 0:04:47.520 --> 0:04:49.039 which I don't really think is that bad of a comment, 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:51.599 but people flipped out. Pros flipped out saying, I don't 0:04:51.640 --> 0:04:54.680 care what the books need, but generally speaking, it's not 0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:56.080 bad to be on the side of the sports books. 0:04:56.120 --> 0:04:58.239 Over the last three weeks, the books have absolutely crushed 0:04:58.279 --> 0:05:00.479 the public. So let's go to a game, which the 0:05:00.520 --> 0:05:03.200 Sunday night game, the Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys. This 0:05:03.279 --> 0:05:06.080 is where the Dallas Cowboys, everyone who loves Dallas says 0:05:06.080 --> 0:05:07.560 they can't lose in the game in a row. They're 0:05:07.600 --> 0:05:09.760 at home. There's no way short number. Here we go, 0:05:09.800 --> 0:05:12.599 but the Eagles, and I know that does. Shawn Jackson 0:05:12.640 --> 0:05:14.880 situation is an interesting one to watch. And I'd feel 0:05:14.880 --> 0:05:17.680 more comfortable if we knew that Amari Cooper was not 0:05:17.720 --> 0:05:20.839 going to play, and we knew that Shaan Jackson was 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:23.520 going to play. But let's just assume all trends are 0:05:23.680 --> 0:05:27.640 pointing towards one. Yes Jackson playing, no, even if he 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:29.680 does play, like last week, he was in for three 0:05:29.760 --> 0:05:31.960 snaps and it was really big detriment to the offense 0:05:31.960 --> 0:05:35.119 for the for the Dolphins. I am going to take 0:05:35.680 --> 0:05:38.120 some short numbers here because of most of these week 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:40.839 weeks are short numbers. I like the Eagles here plus 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:43.520 three on the road at Dallas. 0:05:43.560 --> 0:05:44.920 I think this is a field goal. 0:05:44.839 --> 0:05:46.920 Game, but I think you want to play the money line. 0:05:47.080 --> 0:05:48.880 I don't hate it. I think this is an Eagles 0:05:48.960 --> 0:05:52.000 bounce back spot. There's some real problems with Dallas. Their 0:05:52.040 --> 0:05:54.440 offensive line is really banged up, and if that's if 0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:56.359 that part of their game is banged up, I just 0:05:56.360 --> 0:05:58.520 don't think they're effective. They can't run the football, and 0:05:58.600 --> 0:06:01.320 I've never liked Dak Prescott personally. So you've got some 0:06:01.360 --> 0:06:04.080 injuries with skilled players. You can't use Elliott the way 0:06:04.120 --> 0:06:06.400 you want to. That defense is not good enough. I 0:06:06.400 --> 0:06:09.320 think the Eagles win outright, but I'll take the three 0:06:09.360 --> 0:06:10.760 points on Sunday Night football. 0:06:11.200 --> 0:06:14.400 So the consensus odds very recently has just moved to 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:16.160 two and a half. But I assume you like them 0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:18.680 there since you're willing to take them out right, and 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:21.599 I could not agree with you anymore. And it's a 0:06:21.640 --> 0:06:24.160 little scary this game, right, This game is a dream. 0:06:24.320 --> 0:06:26.400 I mean, there's gonna be so much money on Sunday 0:06:26.480 --> 0:06:28.200 Night too, Right, you're gonna have betters who have just 0:06:28.200 --> 0:06:30.080 gotten crushed and are gonna try to make it all back. 0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:32.719 But of course you've got two very prominent teams. I 0:06:32.800 --> 0:06:35.960 completely agree with you. Now, I see almost no chance 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:38.799 that Amari Cooper plays. I don't think he practiced either 0:06:38.880 --> 0:06:42.000 Wednesday or Thursday. They got to buy coming up. I 0:06:42.040 --> 0:06:45.000 just I can't see him playing. So I'm basically assuming 0:06:45.279 --> 0:06:46.960 that he's going to be out, and I think that 0:06:46.960 --> 0:06:51.120 that drastically changes what the Cowboys offense looks like. As 0:06:51.120 --> 0:06:53.680 we saw essentially in the first what seven games of 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:56.760 last season, they are not anywhere near the same team. 0:06:57.440 --> 0:07:00.960 Do we know whether or not Lell Collins and Tyron 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:03.440 Smith are going to play here on the offensive line. 0:07:03.440 --> 0:07:04.400 Have they practiced yet? 0:07:04.640 --> 0:07:07.839 Yeah, they're both questionable, but leaning towards not playing. So 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:10.080 I mean it's trending in that way as we as 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:13.120 we record this here on you know, way before the 0:07:13.800 --> 0:07:17.760 week begins, but on a Thursday. But they're trending towards 0:07:17.800 --> 0:07:19.880 not playing. It's not good for the injuries right now 0:07:19.880 --> 0:07:20.600 for the Cowboys. 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:24.160 Yeah, especially if they don't play. Forget about it, because 0:07:24.400 --> 0:07:26.360 the one thing the Eagles can do. Their defense has 0:07:26.400 --> 0:07:28.600 been banged up, but they can stop the run. They've 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:31.000 been stopping the run all year. You can pass on them. 0:07:31.000 --> 0:07:32.320 But right now, if you're going to take away a 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:34.800 Marii Cooper, if you're going to weekend that offensive line 0:07:34.800 --> 0:07:37.280 for the Cowboys as it has been in recent weeks, 0:07:37.520 --> 0:07:39.520 then I just don't see them really being able to 0:07:39.560 --> 0:07:41.960 move the ball all that well. You know, and the 0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:45.120 Eagles are starting to get a little healthier in their secondary. 0:07:45.160 --> 0:07:47.640 I don't know whether or not all the injured guys 0:07:47.640 --> 0:07:49.360 are going to come back yet, but in the end, 0:07:49.440 --> 0:07:52.960 I'm one on board with you in this one. The 0:07:53.000 --> 0:07:55.000 fact that it's two and a half now not three 0:07:55.200 --> 0:07:56.000 does not matter to me. 0:07:56.040 --> 0:07:56.440 I agree. 0:07:56.480 --> 0:07:58.120 I think they win this game out right. I Mean 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:01.160 it gets me a little, you know, worried being in Dallas. 0:08:01.160 --> 0:08:03.840 It's primetime. But overall, I'm with you, as are the 0:08:03.880 --> 0:08:07.320 experts on our site. Sixty seven percent are with Philly 0:08:07.360 --> 0:08:09.160 on this one, so we're in agreement on that one. 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:11.920 I'm going to start with an over under, and that 0:08:12.040 --> 0:08:15.760 is the Saints and Bears under thirty eight and a half. Now, 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:18.480 our guest Jared Smallas said last week that he could 0:08:18.520 --> 0:08:20.920 not even envision a number that could be high enough 0:08:20.920 --> 0:08:23.120 for him to not grab the over in the Falcons 0:08:23.160 --> 0:08:25.600 Cardinals game. I kind of feel the same way about 0:08:25.680 --> 0:08:27.360 the under here. I mean, you can drop it down 0:08:27.360 --> 0:08:29.800 to thirty and I'd be like, well, yeah, maybe I 0:08:29.840 --> 0:08:32.319 could see it going. I mean, you've got obvious injury 0:08:32.320 --> 0:08:36.280 concerns on both sides here, right. Alvin Kamara misspractice again today. 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:38.679 He is dealing with both a high ankle sprain and 0:08:38.840 --> 0:08:42.240 a knee injury. And Mitchell Trubisky for the Bears might 0:08:42.320 --> 0:08:44.800 come back from a shoulder injury, but you've got certainly 0:08:44.800 --> 0:08:46.920 some chance for reinjury even if he does. And I'm 0:08:46.920 --> 0:08:49.360 not even convinced that he's necessarily an upgrade over Chase 0:08:49.440 --> 0:08:52.040 Daniel at this point, but regardless, this pick is not 0:08:52.400 --> 0:08:54.920 rocket science. So okay, you've got two teams with extremely 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:57.559 strong defenses. Bears are coming off a bye following a 0:08:57.600 --> 0:09:01.200 game in which the defense played extremely against the Raiders 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:03.040 in London. They've lost the team Hicks. That is a 0:09:03.040 --> 0:09:05.640 big loss, given how badly though that they were gashed 0:09:05.679 --> 0:09:07.520 by Jacobs a lot because Hicks was out. But you 0:09:07.640 --> 0:09:09.400 know that They're going to put much more of an 0:09:09.440 --> 0:09:12.320 emphasis on stopping the run here. Even if Kamara plays, 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:14.040 he's not going to be one hundred percent. I don't 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:15.880 trust that Latavius Murray is gonna be able to do 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:17.880 all that much. And with a pass rush, I mean, 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:20.160 the Bears can get to the quarterback with the best 0:09:19.960 --> 0:09:22.840 of any team. They've gotten eight point two percent sack 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:24.480 rate this year. They're best in the league with a 0:09:24.520 --> 0:09:27.720 thirty four point one percent QB pressure percentage. And Bridgewater 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:29.520 is going to come back down to Earth. He's going 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:32.160 to continue to need to check down every game, except 0:09:32.160 --> 0:09:34.240 for that stupid Bucks game where they just aired it out, 0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:36.480 because that's the way you attack them. The Bears defense 0:09:36.559 --> 0:09:38.800 is going to be ready for all these checkdowns. And 0:09:39.040 --> 0:09:41.760 I get that the Saints put up thirty one points 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:45.280 against the Buck Other than that with Bridgewater, the offense 0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:47.679 has put up nineteen points against the Seahawks. They put 0:09:47.720 --> 0:09:50.439 up more with you know, turnovers and defense and stuff. 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:53.600 But the offense nineteen points, twelve points against the Cowboys, 0:09:53.640 --> 0:09:56.000 thirteen points against the Jaguars. I just cannot see them 0:09:56.000 --> 0:09:57.959 moving the ball or putting up points. And on the 0:09:57.960 --> 0:10:00.600 flip side, the Saints defense is really strong eleventh best 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:03.040 against the past, fourteenth best against the run, but they've 0:10:03.080 --> 0:10:05.880 been pretty dominant against the ground games since Sheldon Rankins 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:07.880 came back, so I don't really expect the Bears to 0:10:07.880 --> 0:10:09.559 be able to move much with David Montgomery and the 0:10:09.600 --> 0:10:13.920 passing game. I mean, come on, it's just Alan Robinson 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:16.200 is the only bright spot. He's gonna draw Marshau Lattimore. 0:10:16.480 --> 0:10:18.640 The Saints get to the quarterback their third and QB 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:21.720 pressure percentage. It's a defensive game. It's in Chicago. It 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:23.360 seems pretty obvious to me. I mean, thirty eight and 0:10:23.400 --> 0:10:25.199 a half is a low number, but for me, I 0:10:25.600 --> 0:10:27.160 don't really think it's gonna come close to that. So 0:10:27.200 --> 0:10:28.720 I'll take the under on thirty eight and a half. 0:10:29.480 --> 0:10:31.920 My number two, Yeah, go for number two. Go for it, 0:10:32.040 --> 0:10:32.400 all right? 0:10:32.440 --> 0:10:36.160 So my number two here, and I have a I 0:10:36.400 --> 0:10:38.679 just have to get one of these Texans picks right, 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:42.880 because I have been getting these games wrong with the Texans. 0:10:42.880 --> 0:10:45.400 But I always feel like I've got the right narrative. 0:10:45.440 --> 0:10:47.200 I always feel like I've got the right stats to 0:10:47.240 --> 0:10:48.640 back it up. I feel like I'm looking at the 0:10:48.640 --> 0:10:51.160 game correctly, and then something happens in the Texans for 0:10:51.280 --> 0:10:53.960 some crazy way they're able to cover. I'm gonna go 0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:56.640 with the Colts and the Texans here, and look, the 0:10:56.679 --> 0:10:58.360 line opened up two and a half. 0:10:58.400 --> 0:10:59.960 It's kind of swung around. 0:11:00.200 --> 0:11:01.800 I'm not sure where you guys have a consensus, but 0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:04.479 let's just play a Colts minus one, right, It's pretty. 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:06.880 Much that's where it is. Okay, that's where it is. 0:11:07.000 --> 0:11:10.200 Yeah, general, I know where that number is. So here. 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:12.400 Historically speaking, the Colts coming off of a bye have 0:11:12.480 --> 0:11:14.800 not been great, but this is a different type of 0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:17.120 Colts team, and I think they needed to get t 0:11:17.320 --> 0:11:19.480 Y Hilton and they needed to get Mac healthy, and 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:21.360 I believe both those guys are going to benefit a 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:23.760 ton for having the extra time off to get them 0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:25.800 ready to go for this game. The Texans are coming 0:11:25.840 --> 0:11:29.040 off an incredibly emotional win against Kansas City, and I 0:11:29.080 --> 0:11:31.480 am not Look, I'm from andover Massachusetts. I'm not so 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:34.120 far from where you run. Bill O'Brien's from andover Massachusetts. 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:37.000 So maybe I'm blinded by that saying I'm not a 0:11:37.080 --> 0:11:39.440 very big Bill O'Brien fan by never really have been 0:11:39.480 --> 0:11:41.560 a big Bill O'Brien fan. As a head coach, and 0:11:41.600 --> 0:11:43.480 I don't think this team can go back to back 0:11:43.520 --> 0:11:46.400 weeks and get monster victories on the road like this. 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:49.760 I think the Colts off of a bye, come and 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:52.400 get a big victory. So far this year, they're three 0:11:52.480 --> 0:11:54.679 to one and one against the spread. This is a 0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:56.800 team that can run the football. I think they can 0:11:56.840 --> 0:11:58.800 take advantage of the of the things that the Texans 0:11:58.880 --> 0:11:59.760 defense doesn't do great. 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:01.600 They've got to protect the football. 0:12:01.640 --> 0:12:04.360 But I'm a Jacoby Brissett has played really, really well 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:06.040 and they are a different team when they've got t 0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:09.320 Y Hilton healthy. He should be healthy for this football game. 0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:12.560 I like the Colts money line minus one doesn't really matter. 0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:14.880 I think the Colts at home win this football game 0:12:14.920 --> 0:12:15.760 and beat the Texans. 0:12:16.080 --> 0:12:20.319 I promise you. I don't just blindly agree with our 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:22.720 guest picks when they come on, but I one hundred 0:12:22.720 --> 0:12:25.240 percent i'm with you. I assume are you in the 0:12:25.240 --> 0:12:27.240 Westgates Super Contest. I don't know if you are, but 0:12:27.920 --> 0:12:30.439 Circa yeah, okay, Cirka, yeah, all right, So I'm in 0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:33.480 the super Contest. I guarantee. I'm not gonna guarantee, I 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:35.320 guess because I like to do mine really on Friday 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:36.840 when I go through. But I'm sure these are going 0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:38.120 to be both the ones you named are going to 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:40.240 be two of my picks because I really really like 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:44.880 both of them. Yeah, I mean the Texans. The Texans 0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:47.320 are great. I think the the injuries uh you know 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:49.960 to the offensive line that they just sustained this past 0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:52.160 weekend is going to hurt a little bit. But either way, yeah, 0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:54.720 this is this is a different team. Man. The Colts 0:12:54.800 --> 0:12:57.600 are you know, off of by they're getting healthy. Darius 0:12:57.640 --> 0:13:00.000 Leonard has cleared the concussion protocol. That makes a huge, 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:02.760 huge difference in the run game. And and I like 0:13:02.920 --> 0:13:05.079 the Texans. What I love about the Colts and I 0:13:05.120 --> 0:13:07.960 mean they're they're so incredibly well coached. Okay, they they've 0:13:08.000 --> 0:13:10.199 got great you know, they've got great personal They've got 0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:13.560 a fantastic offensive line. They're very solid on defense. But 0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:16.200 you know, against the Chiefs, they totally switched it up 0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:18.520 and played man, right, I mean, they're like more of 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:20.719 a zone team, and they switched it up and played men. 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:22.360 I think they can go back to zone here. They 0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:24.600 can kind of make de Shaun Watson beat them by 0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:26.800 by sort of taking away the deep stuff. But I 0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:29.079 think this game sets up well for them. In addition 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:31.200 to the fact that, yeah, the Texas are coming off 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:34.640 like a huge, you know victory that that takes a 0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:36.760 lot out of a team like that when they do it, 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:39.000 and they got another road game coming up, the Cults 0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:41.600 coming off of eye. So I agree. I was surprised because, 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:44.160 like you said, this number has moved all over the place. 0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:46.160 I did see it at two point five earlier in 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:47.360 the week. I don't know where it opened. 0:13:49.320 --> 0:13:51.640 Two point two, Yeah, and then it's swung at some 0:13:51.720 --> 0:13:54.559 books all the way the Houston minus one, and pretty 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:56.480 much the consensus here in Vegas is that the number 0:13:56.559 --> 0:13:58.960 is gonna that the public's gonna come in on whatever 0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:01.840 team is the under dog. So we'll see kind of, 0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:04.560 you know, how much professional money we see come in 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:06.959 on this game and whether it swings it to you know, 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:09.319 to Houston. Because of what happened last week and the 0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:12.200 week before where they scored fifty three points, you know, 0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:16.599 the metrics are all pointing upwards in a great trajectory 0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:18.640 for the Texans given what they've done with their offense 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:20.680 and scoring twenty points in the second quarter against the 0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:23.240 Chiefs at Arrowhead last week was pretty impressive. So a 0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:24.520 lot of people kind of looking at it that going, 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:25.960 all right, you know, this team is trending in the 0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:29.240 right direction. But I just think this is a classic. 0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:32.720 I sold high last week one on the Texans and 0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:35.160 got it wrong. I'm gonna sell high again on the 0:14:35.200 --> 0:14:38.400 Texans and think that the Colts are going to use 0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:40.640 that time off wisely and be able to get a 0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:43.320 very big victory in the AFC South. And you know, 0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:45.640 it's interesting because you look at the game you talked 0:14:45.640 --> 0:14:48.080 about that the New Orleans Chicago game, and how defensive 0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:51.640 minded that both teams are in. Trubitsky is a guy 0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:55.240 that I don't trust, and I mean I don't want 0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:58.480 hundred percent trust Jacoby Presett yet, but I'm getting closer 0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:00.640 and closer to feeling like Brissett guy that week in 0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:02.320 week out. I kind of know what he's gonna do, 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:03.920 and I kind of feel like what he You know, 0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:05.640 he's going to be able to move the football, and 0:15:05.680 --> 0:15:07.200 if not, they're gonna hand the ball off, and that 0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:08.920 great offensive line is gonna be able to move the 0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:11.560 ball pretty much on anybody. So so one thing that 0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:14.680 Bears really don't have is a dominant offensive line to spill, 0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:16.840 you know, is to get to spell Mitchell Trubisky when 0:15:16.840 --> 0:15:18.600 he's out there running around for his life and making 0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:20.760 mistakes like crazy. So you know, it's the thing with 0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:23.360 the Bridgewater brings to the table for New Orleans, which 0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:25.240 is so great that you have Alan like Evan Kamara, 0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:26.960 but not just that, you've got his ability to pick 0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:29.400 up first downs and roll out when he needs to 0:15:29.480 --> 0:15:31.040 and then run when he has to as well. So 0:15:31.280 --> 0:15:33.720 I mean, both those defenses are gonna feast. And I 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:35.520 talk to a writer on my on my show Pushing 0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:37.600 the Odds who covers the Saints from New Orleans Saints 0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:39.440 dot Com, and he said that there's talking the locker 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:41.360 room for New Orleans that they want to be the 0:15:41.480 --> 0:15:44.520 number one ranked defense in the NFL, and over the 0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:47.120 last couple of weeks they're playing like it. So playing 0:15:47.120 --> 0:15:50.120 the Bears, there's sort of this, you know, here we go. 0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:53.120 We're gonna show you that. Look, the Raider game wasn't 0:15:53.120 --> 0:15:55.240 a fluke. You guys aren't as good as everyone says 0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:57.200 you are. But we're the real dominant team in the 0:15:57.280 --> 0:16:00.080 NFC defensively, So I can't wait to see you. I 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:02.160 go in the Saints play that game because it could 0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:03.720 be ten to three at the final. 0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:06.080 Oh man, well thanks for coming back to that game, 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:07.640 because I was worried when you were just like, yeah, 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:09.560 that's good, let's move on the next pick. They were like, nah, 0:16:09.640 --> 0:16:10.840 that's a terrible pick. 0:16:10.880 --> 0:16:14.520 I don't even want your podcast. I'm learning everyone's podcast 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:16.600 is definitely right. I'm getting in the fact right to 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:16.960 do it. 0:16:17.560 --> 0:16:19.160 You don't have to worry about it. Man, we can 0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:21.200 move right on to the next one. It doesn't matter 0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:21.440 to me. 0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:21.720 Yeah. 0:16:21.800 --> 0:16:25.120 Usually we you know, usually somebody comments on what it was. 0:16:25.160 --> 0:16:26.360 But it was all right. You want to get rund 0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:28.160 to your pick, which I love anyway, So it's good. 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:30.000 I'm glad we were ready into it. So it sounds 0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:31.840