Speaker 1: Hey there everyone. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Hadi.
Speaker 1: It is time to break down some of our favorite
Speaker 1: and least favorite bets for the Week seven NFL slate,
Speaker 1: And with me to talk about it all is Matt Perrault,
Speaker 1: host of Pushing the Odds on SB Nation Radio and
Speaker 1: The Better Network and a ton more which I could list,
Speaker 1: but then we'd be like an hour and a half show.
Speaker 1: You can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. Matt,
Speaker 1: thanks for joining me today. How you doing.
Speaker 2: I appreciate it.
Speaker 3: I'm great. Thanks for the invite. Always great to talk
Speaker 3: to somebody in New England.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know, we were just talking about it. We are,
Speaker 1: you know, Matt's not not near me anymore, but we
Speaker 1: would have been roughly, like, I don't know, like twenty
Speaker 1: minutes away at one point in our lives had we
Speaker 1: met at a different point. But for now we're pretty
Speaker 1: far away. But thanks to advancements and technology, you'd never
Speaker 1: know it if we didn't tell you. So anyway, let's
Speaker 1: get right into it. We had a pretty profitable week.
Speaker 1: Last week, our guest Jared Smollett nailed both the Falcons
Speaker 1: Cardinals over fifty one and the Jets getting seven from
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, as well as his top prop bet, which
Speaker 1: was Matt Ryan over three hundred and fifty passing yards
Speaker 1: at plus one forty six, which he barely squeaked by.
Speaker 1: His only miss was on the Chiefs slaying four to
Speaker 1: the Texans. As for me, I hit on all four
Speaker 1: of my picks, which included the absolutely grotesque Dolphins getting
Speaker 1: three and a half from the Redskins, the Jaguars and
Speaker 1: Saints under forty three and a half, the Jets and
Speaker 1: the Cowboys over forty four, and Stefan Digs over fifty
Speaker 1: nine and a half yards at minus one fourteen, which
Speaker 1: he narrowly cleared by eleventy billion yards. Now it is
Speaker 1: up to you, Matt, to keep us going. How confident
Speaker 1: are you on a scale of.
Speaker 2: Like one to forty eight on what game just.
Speaker 1: In might no, just generally, if you're going to be
Speaker 1: able to do a perfect Look, man, we don't go.
Speaker 1: We don't go like half ass. Here we go all
Speaker 1: the way. Are you ready to have the clean sweep?
Speaker 1: Get all three of your bets plus your top proper
Speaker 1: Are you ready? Yeah?
Speaker 3: I mean, well yeah, given my week last week was horrendous,
Speaker 3: So I started off red hot, I went ten and
Speaker 3: not to start the year out of the NFL, and
Speaker 3: and then as you know, as what happens, you come
Speaker 3: crashing down to earth, and all of my handicapping acumen,
Speaker 3: all of my narrative explaining all those games I thought
Speaker 3: where I had teams backed up against the wall at home,
Speaker 3: either as small as small favors or small underdogs. You know, Chiefs,
Speaker 3: the Rams, and the Browns all let me down brutally
Speaker 3: last week. So I'm I'm hoping to bounce back, and
Speaker 3: hopefully this show will help you help me get back
Speaker 3: on the winning track.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'll be honest, because I'm an honest guy.
Speaker 1: I like to have credibility with the listeners. The three
Speaker 1: bets that I listed, not even including the prop bet
Speaker 1: with Digs, were you know, three of my better bets
Speaker 1: for the week.
Speaker 2: It was.
Speaker 1: It was a rough week overall, I think, generally speaking,
Speaker 1: but it was for a lot of people. And so
Speaker 1: we're gonna, we're gonna definitely bounce back right here, you
Speaker 1: and I we're gonna Now we're gonna go eight for
Speaker 1: eight on all our picks, even the ones we'll avoid.
Speaker 1: We'll just be like obviously nobody wants to get into that.
Speaker 1: But before we get into it, I do want to
Speaker 1: announce the winner of the Alvin Kamara helmet giveaway. Congratulations
Speaker 1: to Nick from Massachusetts. Nick has already been notified and
Speaker 1: the helmet is on its way way to go. Nick,
Speaker 1: thanks for listening. Now, if you did not win the
Speaker 1: Kamara helmet, well, how would you like to win a
Speaker 1: signed Odell Beckham Junior Brown's helmet, Because that is this
Speaker 1: month's contest. To be entered, just leave a review on
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and senday screenshot of that review
Speaker 1: to contest at bettingpros dot com. And of course, if
Speaker 1: you entered a previous contest, you're automatically entered here. All right,
Speaker 1: As always, we're gonna get started with Pick six, where
Speaker 1: both Matt and I are going to give three of
Speaker 1: our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the spread
Speaker 1: or on the over under. Now, as always, I will
Speaker 1: note at the outset that we were recording this on
Speaker 1: Thursday night, shortly after Patrick Mahomes hurt his knee. So
Speaker 1: we're not going to be making any picks on the
Speaker 1: Chiefs Broncos game. But if you want to see how
Speaker 1: I picked that game, you can go to Bettingpros dot com.
Speaker 1: That is going to show you how I and every
Speaker 1: betting expert who makes picks on the site made their
Speaker 1: picks for that and every game. Matt and I are
Speaker 1: also going to be using the bettingpros dot Com consensus
Speaker 1: odds here in making our picks. So those are the
Speaker 1: aggregate odds that you'll find available in the market. All right, Matt,
Speaker 1: start us off, what is your first pick?
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 3: So let's talk first on what I think It's going
Speaker 3: to be an important game for the sports books. It's
Speaker 3: going to come down to Sunday nights, and so what
Speaker 3: I do on my show, I have the fortunate of
Speaker 3: being in Las Vegas. I work actually out of a
Speaker 3: sports book in the Palms, working very closely with CG Sportsbooks,
Speaker 3: so I have the ability to talk to these guys
Speaker 3: in what they think they're going to need.
Speaker 2: And you know, there was a famous line back in
Speaker 2: the day about a year ago.
Speaker 3: Actually G two E is the Gaming Global Gaming Conference
Speaker 3: actually this week here in Las Vegas. But a year ago,
Speaker 3: Scott Van Pelt made a very controversial comment by saying
Speaker 3: he wanted to be on the side of the books,
Speaker 3: which I don't really think is that bad of a comment,
Speaker 3: but people flipped out. Pros flipped out saying, I don't
Speaker 3: care what the books need, but generally speaking, it's not
Speaker 3: bad to be on the side of the sports books.
Speaker 3: Over the last three weeks, the books have absolutely crushed
Speaker 3: the public. So let's go to a game, which the
Speaker 3: Sunday night game, the Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys. This
Speaker 3: is where the Dallas Cowboys, everyone who loves Dallas says
Speaker 3: they can't lose in the game in a row. They're
Speaker 3: at home. There's no way short number. Here we go,
Speaker 3: but the Eagles, and I know that does. Shawn Jackson
Speaker 3: situation is an interesting one to watch. And I'd feel
Speaker 3: more comfortable if we knew that Amari Cooper was not
Speaker 3: going to play, and we knew that Shaan Jackson was
Speaker 3: going to play. But let's just assume all trends are
Speaker 3: pointing towards one. Yes Jackson playing, no, even if he
Speaker 3: does play, like last week, he was in for three
Speaker 3: snaps and it was really big detriment to the offense
Speaker 3: for the for the Dolphins. I am going to take
Speaker 3: some short numbers here because of most of these week
Speaker 3: weeks are short numbers. I like the Eagles here plus
Speaker 3: three on the road at Dallas.
Speaker 2: I think this is a field goal.
Speaker 3: Game, but I think you want to play the money line.
Speaker 3: I don't hate it. I think this is an Eagles
Speaker 3: bounce back spot. There's some real problems with Dallas. Their
Speaker 3: offensive line is really banged up, and if that's if
Speaker 3: that part of their game is banged up, I just
Speaker 3: don't think they're effective. They can't run the football, and
Speaker 3: I've never liked Dak Prescott personally. So you've got some
Speaker 3: injuries with skilled players. You can't use Elliott the way
Speaker 3: you want to. That defense is not good enough. I
Speaker 3: think the Eagles win outright, but I'll take the three
Speaker 3: points on Sunday Night football.
Speaker 1: So the consensus odds very recently has just moved to
Speaker 1: two and a half. But I assume you like them
Speaker 1: there since you're willing to take them out right, and
Speaker 1: I could not agree with you anymore. And it's a
Speaker 1: little scary this game, right, This game is a dream.
Speaker 1: I mean, there's gonna be so much money on Sunday
Speaker 1: Night too, Right, you're gonna have betters who have just
Speaker 1: gotten crushed and are gonna try to make it all back.
Speaker 1: But of course you've got two very prominent teams. I
Speaker 1: completely agree with you. Now, I see almost no chance
Speaker 1: that Amari Cooper plays. I don't think he practiced either
Speaker 1: Wednesday or Thursday. They got to buy coming up. I
Speaker 1: just I can't see him playing. So I'm basically assuming
Speaker 1: that he's going to be out, and I think that
Speaker 1: that drastically changes what the Cowboys offense looks like. As
Speaker 1: we saw essentially in the first what seven games of
Speaker 1: last season, they are not anywhere near the same team.
Speaker 1: Do we know whether or not Lell Collins and Tyron
Speaker 1: Smith are going to play here on the offensive line.
Speaker 1: Have they practiced yet?
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're both questionable, but leaning towards not playing. So
Speaker 3: I mean it's trending in that way as we as
Speaker 3: we record this here on you know, way before the
Speaker 3: week begins, but on a Thursday. But they're trending towards
Speaker 3: not playing. It's not good for the injuries right now
Speaker 3: for the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially if they don't play. Forget about it, because
Speaker 1: the one thing the Eagles can do. Their defense has
Speaker 1: been banged up, but they can stop the run. They've
Speaker 1: been stopping the run all year. You can pass on them.
Speaker 1: But right now, if you're going to take away a
Speaker 1: Marii Cooper, if you're going to weekend that offensive line
Speaker 1: for the Cowboys as it has been in recent weeks,
Speaker 1: then I just don't see them really being able to
Speaker 1: move the ball all that well. You know, and the
Speaker 1: Eagles are starting to get a little healthier in their secondary.
Speaker 1: I don't know whether or not all the injured guys
Speaker 1: are going to come back yet, but in the end,
Speaker 1: I'm one on board with you in this one. The
Speaker 1: fact that it's two and a half now not three
Speaker 1: does not matter to me.
Speaker 2: I agree.
Speaker 1: I think they win this game out right. I Mean
Speaker 1: it gets me a little, you know, worried being in Dallas.
Speaker 1: It's primetime. But overall, I'm with you, as are the
Speaker 1: experts on our site. Sixty seven percent are with Philly
Speaker 1: on this one, so we're in agreement on that one.
Speaker 1: I'm going to start with an over under, and that
Speaker 1: is the Saints and Bears under thirty eight and a half. Now,
Speaker 1: our guest Jared Smallas said last week that he could
Speaker 1: not even envision a number that could be high enough
Speaker 1: for him to not grab the over in the Falcons
Speaker 1: Cardinals game. I kind of feel the same way about
Speaker 1: the under here. I mean, you can drop it down
Speaker 1: to thirty and I'd be like, well, yeah, maybe I
Speaker 1: could see it going. I mean, you've got obvious injury
Speaker 1: concerns on both sides here, right. Alvin Kamara misspractice again today.
Speaker 1: He is dealing with both a high ankle sprain and
Speaker 1: a knee injury. And Mitchell Trubisky for the Bears might
Speaker 1: come back from a shoulder injury, but you've got certainly
Speaker 1: some chance for reinjury even if he does. And I'm
Speaker 1: not even convinced that he's necessarily an upgrade over Chase
Speaker 1: Daniel at this point, but regardless, this pick is not
Speaker 1: rocket science. So okay, you've got two teams with extremely
Speaker 1: strong defenses. Bears are coming off a bye following a
Speaker 1: game in which the defense played extremely against the Raiders
Speaker 1: in London. They've lost the team Hicks. That is a
Speaker 1: big loss, given how badly though that they were gashed
Speaker 1: by Jacobs a lot because Hicks was out. But you
Speaker 1: know that They're going to put much more of an
Speaker 1: emphasis on stopping the run here. Even if Kamara plays,
Speaker 1: he's not going to be one hundred percent. I don't
Speaker 1: trust that Latavius Murray is gonna be able to do
Speaker 1: all that much. And with a pass rush, I mean,
Speaker 1: the Bears can get to the quarterback with the best
Speaker 1: of any team. They've gotten eight point two percent sack
Speaker 1: rate this year. They're best in the league with a
Speaker 1: thirty four point one percent QB pressure percentage. And Bridgewater
Speaker 1: is going to come back down to Earth. He's going
Speaker 1: to continue to need to check down every game, except
Speaker 1: for that stupid Bucks game where they just aired it out,
Speaker 1: because that's the way you attack them. The Bears defense
Speaker 1: is going to be ready for all these checkdowns. And
Speaker 1: I get that the Saints put up thirty one points
Speaker 1: against the Buck Other than that with Bridgewater, the offense
Speaker 1: has put up nineteen points against the Seahawks. They put
Speaker 1: up more with you know, turnovers and defense and stuff.
Speaker 1: But the offense nineteen points, twelve points against the Cowboys,
Speaker 1: thirteen points against the Jaguars. I just cannot see them
Speaker 1: moving the ball or putting up points. And on the
Speaker 1: flip side, the Saints defense is really strong eleventh best
Speaker 1: against the past, fourteenth best against the run, but they've
Speaker 1: been pretty dominant against the ground games since Sheldon Rankins
Speaker 1: came back, so I don't really expect the Bears to
Speaker 1: be able to move much with David Montgomery and the
Speaker 1: passing game. I mean, come on, it's just Alan Robinson
Speaker 1: is the only bright spot. He's gonna draw Marshau Lattimore.
Speaker 1: The Saints get to the quarterback their third and QB
Speaker 1: pressure percentage. It's a defensive game. It's in Chicago. It
Speaker 1: seems pretty obvious to me. I mean, thirty eight and
Speaker 1: a half is a low number, but for me, I
Speaker 1: don't really think it's gonna come close to that. So
Speaker 1: I'll take the under on thirty eight and a half.
Speaker 1: My number two, Yeah, go for number two. Go for it,
Speaker 1: all right?
Speaker 3: So my number two here, and I have a I
Speaker 3: just have to get one of these Texans picks right,
Speaker 3: because I have been getting these games wrong with the Texans.
Speaker 3: But I always feel like I've got the right narrative.
Speaker 3: I always feel like I've got the right stats to
Speaker 3: back it up. I feel like I'm looking at the
Speaker 3: game correctly, and then something happens in the Texans for
Speaker 3: some crazy way they're able to cover. I'm gonna go
Speaker 3: with the Colts and the Texans here, and look, the
Speaker 3: line opened up two and a half.
Speaker 2: It's kind of swung around.
Speaker 3: I'm not sure where you guys have a consensus, but
Speaker 3: let's just play a Colts minus one, right, It's pretty.
Speaker 1: Much that's where it is. Okay, that's where it is.
Speaker 2: Yeah, general, I know where that number is. So here.
Speaker 3: Historically speaking, the Colts coming off of a bye have
Speaker 3: not been great, but this is a different type of
Speaker 3: Colts team, and I think they needed to get t
Speaker 3: Y Hilton and they needed to get Mac healthy, and
Speaker 3: I believe both those guys are going to benefit a
Speaker 3: ton for having the extra time off to get them
Speaker 3: ready to go for this game. The Texans are coming
Speaker 3: off an incredibly emotional win against Kansas City, and I
Speaker 3: am not Look, I'm from andover Massachusetts. I'm not so
Speaker 3: far from where you run. Bill O'Brien's from andover Massachusetts.
Speaker 3: So maybe I'm blinded by that saying I'm not a
Speaker 3: very big Bill O'Brien fan by never really have been
Speaker 3: a big Bill O'Brien fan. As a head coach, and
Speaker 3: I don't think this team can go back to back
Speaker 3: weeks and get monster victories on the road like this.
Speaker 3: I think the Colts off of a bye, come and
Speaker 3: get a big victory. So far this year, they're three
Speaker 3: to one and one against the spread. This is a
Speaker 3: team that can run the football. I think they can
Speaker 3: take advantage of the of the things that the Texans
Speaker 3: defense doesn't do great.
Speaker 2: They've got to protect the football.
Speaker 3: But I'm a Jacoby Brissett has played really, really well
Speaker 3: and they are a different team when they've got t
Speaker 3: Y Hilton healthy. He should be healthy for this football game.
Speaker 3: I like the Colts money line minus one doesn't really matter.
Speaker 3: I think the Colts at home win this football game
Speaker 3: and beat the Texans.
Speaker 1: I promise you. I don't just blindly agree with our
Speaker 1: guest picks when they come on, but I one hundred
Speaker 1: percent i'm with you. I assume are you in the
Speaker 1: Westgates Super Contest. I don't know if you are, but
Speaker 1: Circa yeah, okay, Cirka, yeah, all right, So I'm in
Speaker 1: the super Contest. I guarantee. I'm not gonna guarantee, I
Speaker 1: guess because I like to do mine really on Friday
Speaker 1: when I go through. But I'm sure these are going
Speaker 1: to be both the ones you named are going to
Speaker 1: be two of my picks because I really really like
Speaker 1: both of them. Yeah, I mean the Texans. The Texans
Speaker 1: are great. I think the the injuries uh you know
Speaker 1: to the offensive line that they just sustained this past
Speaker 1: weekend is going to hurt a little bit. But either way, yeah,
Speaker 1: this is this is a different team. Man. The Colts
Speaker 1: are you know, off of by they're getting healthy. Darius
Speaker 1: Leonard has cleared the concussion protocol. That makes a huge,
Speaker 1: huge difference in the run game. And and I like
Speaker 1: the Texans. What I love about the Colts and I
Speaker 1: mean they're they're so incredibly well coached. Okay, they they've
Speaker 1: got great you know, they've got great personal They've got
Speaker 1: a fantastic offensive line. They're very solid on defense. But
Speaker 1: you know, against the Chiefs, they totally switched it up
Speaker 1: and played man, right, I mean, they're like more of
Speaker 1: a zone team, and they switched it up and played men.
Speaker 1: I think they can go back to zone here. They
Speaker 1: can kind of make de Shaun Watson beat them by
Speaker 1: by sort of taking away the deep stuff. But I
Speaker 1: think this game sets up well for them. In addition
Speaker 1: to the fact that, yeah, the Texas are coming off
Speaker 1: like a huge, you know victory that that takes a
Speaker 1: lot out of a team like that when they do it,
Speaker 1: and they got another road game coming up, the Cults
Speaker 1: coming off of eye. So I agree. I was surprised because,
Speaker 1: like you said, this number has moved all over the place.
Speaker 1: I did see it at two point five earlier in
Speaker 1: the week. I don't know where it opened.
Speaker 3: Two point two, Yeah, and then it's swung at some
Speaker 3: books all the way the Houston minus one, and pretty
Speaker 3: much the consensus here in Vegas is that the number
Speaker 3: is gonna that the public's gonna come in on whatever
Speaker 3: team is the under dog. So we'll see kind of,
Speaker 3: you know, how much professional money we see come in
Speaker 3: on this game and whether it swings it to you know,
Speaker 3: to Houston. Because of what happened last week and the
Speaker 3: week before where they scored fifty three points, you know,
Speaker 3: the metrics are all pointing upwards in a great trajectory
Speaker 3: for the Texans given what they've done with their offense
Speaker 3: and scoring twenty points in the second quarter against the
Speaker 3: Chiefs at Arrowhead last week was pretty impressive. So a
Speaker 3: lot of people kind of looking at it that going,
Speaker 3: all right, you know, this team is trending in the
Speaker 3: right direction. But I just think this is a classic.
Speaker 3: I sold high last week one on the Texans and
Speaker 3: got it wrong. I'm gonna sell high again on the
Speaker 3: Texans and think that the Colts are going to use
Speaker 3: that time off wisely and be able to get a
Speaker 3: very big victory in the AFC South. And you know,
Speaker 3: it's interesting because you look at the game you talked
Speaker 3: about that the New Orleans Chicago game, and how defensive
Speaker 3: minded that both teams are in. Trubitsky is a guy
Speaker 3: that I don't trust, and I mean I don't want
Speaker 3: hundred percent trust Jacoby Presett yet, but I'm getting closer
Speaker 3: and closer to feeling like Brissett guy that week in
Speaker 3: week out. I kind of know what he's gonna do,
Speaker 3: and I kind of feel like what he You know,
Speaker 3: he's going to be able to move the football, and
Speaker 3: if not, they're gonna hand the ball off, and that
Speaker 3: great offensive line is gonna be able to move the
Speaker 3: ball pretty much on anybody. So so one thing that
Speaker 3: Bears really don't have is a dominant offensive line to spill,
Speaker 3: you know, is to get to spell Mitchell Trubisky when
Speaker 3: he's out there running around for his life and making
Speaker 3: mistakes like crazy. So you know, it's the thing with
Speaker 3: the Bridgewater brings to the table for New Orleans, which
Speaker 3: is so great that you have Alan like Evan Kamara,
Speaker 3: but not just that, you've got his ability to pick
Speaker 3: up first downs and roll out when he needs to
Speaker 3: and then run when he has to as well. So
Speaker 3: I mean, both those defenses are gonna feast. And I
Speaker 3: talk to a writer on my on my show Pushing
Speaker 3: the Odds who covers the Saints from New Orleans Saints
Speaker 3: dot Com, and he said that there's talking the locker
Speaker 3: room for New Orleans that they want to be the
Speaker 3: number one ranked defense in the NFL, and over the
Speaker 3: last couple of weeks they're playing like it. So playing
Speaker 3: the Bears, there's sort of this, you know, here we go.
Speaker 3: We're gonna show you that. Look, the Raider game wasn't
Speaker 3: a fluke. You guys aren't as good as everyone says
Speaker 3: you are. But we're the real dominant team in the
Speaker 3: NFC defensively, So I can't wait to see you. I
Speaker 3: go in the Saints play that game because it could
Speaker 3: be ten to three at the final.
Speaker 1: Oh man, well thanks for coming back to that game,
Speaker 1: because I was worried when you were just like, yeah,
Speaker 1: that's good, let's move on the next pick. They were like, nah,
Speaker 1: that's a terrible pick.
Speaker 3: I don't even want your podcast. I'm learning everyone's podcast
Speaker 3: is definitely right. I'm getting in the fact right to
Speaker 3: do it.
Speaker 1: You don't have to worry about it. Man, we can
Speaker 1: move right on to the next one. It doesn't matter
Speaker 1: to me.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Usually we you know, usually somebody comments on what it was.
Speaker 1: But it was all right. You want to get rund
Speaker 1: to your pick, which I love anyway, So it's good.
Speaker 1: I'm glad we were ready into it. So it sounds
Speaker 1: like we're on board here this one. I don't know.
Speaker 1: I think we may be a little different on this one.
Speaker 1: I don't like the big spreads. I generally just you know,
Speaker 1: I don't feel comfortable taking a favorite the big spread,
Speaker 1: particularly on the road. But I'm going to take the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers, which is now down to nine, laying
Speaker 1: nine to the Redskins. Now, this was ten when I
Speaker 1: checked it on Monday, so you probably have some money
Speaker 1: coming in on the Redskins, I would assume, but not
Speaker 1: that much. From when I'm looking.
Speaker 3: Nobody is at nine. So wherever you're getting nine, that's
Speaker 3: good because it's nine and a half here, so that's
Speaker 3: good to get at nine.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking and oh yeah, it's I mean, it's
Speaker 1: all over the place. When I'm looking, the consensus odds
Speaker 1: are at nine. It's still at ten at points Bet
Speaker 1: it's at nine and a half on FanDuel. Everywhere else
Speaker 1: that I'm looking at right here has it at nine.
Speaker 2: William Hill's ten.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, see, all right, I'll see. I no
Speaker 1: value when I see it. Yeah, Now even at ten, frankly,
Speaker 1: I would still I would still take it, I think.
Speaker 1: I mean, I look, you have to always be concerned
Speaker 1: about a backdoor cover anytime you have a number this high.
Speaker 1: But I just it's difficult for me to see the
Speaker 1: game being that close. I get, like, the only things
Speaker 1: there are the fact that the forty nine ers are
Speaker 1: coming off a monstrous win against the Rams, so that
Speaker 1: might take a little out of them, and they're coming east.
Speaker 1: I get it, I get it. But the defense is
Speaker 1: completely legitimate, and they're going to destroy Case Keenum. They've
Speaker 1: got a ten percent sack rate, third best in football.
Speaker 1: The Redskins offensive line is terrible. The forty nine ers
Speaker 1: allow nothing through the air, their best in yards per
Speaker 1: attempt and completion percentage. They allowed one hundred and fifty
Speaker 1: point two passing yards per game, So you know Terry
Speaker 1: mclaurin's gonna get some catches. The forty nine ers are
Speaker 1: going to play zone a lot, but they're not going
Speaker 1: to be able to sustain drives through the air against
Speaker 1: this defense, nor are they going to be able to
Speaker 1: move the ball well on the ground. The forty nine
Speaker 1: Ers haven't allowed a touchdown to a running back. They
Speaker 1: allow fewer than four yards per carry. Chris Thompson's dealing
Speaker 1: with turf tow he may miss the game and when
Speaker 1: they'll smallwood is not nearly as good an option if
Speaker 1: they's got to check down. They're just their second in
Speaker 1: total defense. They're dominant on the defense event. On the
Speaker 1: flip side, the Washington defense is pretty terrible and Jimmy
Speaker 1: Garoppolo has not lit up the stat sheet, but he
Speaker 1: just hasn't needed to. He hasn't tempted more than thirty
Speaker 1: three passes. Because the forty nine ers are winning easily.
Speaker 1: The Redskins allow a seventy two percent completion percentage. They're
Speaker 1: not much better on the ground. They're twenty eighth in
Speaker 1: the league. They allow one hundred and thirty four rushing
Speaker 1: yards per game. Part of that is the fact that
Speaker 1: they are always behind and the opposing team just runs
Speaker 1: the ball. But they're twenty eighth in points allowed. The
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers gained four hundred eight yards per game,
Speaker 1: fourth in the league. They put up twenty nine ze
Speaker 1: point four points per game. That's third in the league.
Speaker 1: I get it. The cross country trip, I get it.
Speaker 1: They just had this sort of, you know, emotional giant
Speaker 1: win over the Rams. This is not anything that I
Speaker 1: think is going to be remotely close. I think the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers completely blow them out of the water,
Speaker 1: and even laying nine, I'm willing to do it. You can, now, Matt,
Speaker 1: go ahead and talk about that pick and tell me
Speaker 1: why I'm wrong.
Speaker 3: I don't think you're wrong. It's scary, but I don't
Speaker 3: think you're wrong. See, here's the thing with the forty
Speaker 3: nine ers. And I talked on my show all summer
Speaker 3: long about different teams whose win total I thought was
Speaker 3: too low, and the forty nine ers were one of
Speaker 3: the teams at eight wins.
Speaker 2: I thought that was ridiculous.
Speaker 3: I thought that was if they stayed healthy, if Lungs
Speaker 3: Garoppolo stayed healthy, and they kept one of their two
Speaker 3: running backs upright, that they were going to be able
Speaker 3: to run the football and move the ball. And then
Speaker 3: if their defensive line, which has five first round picks
Speaker 3: on it could just play the way that they're supposed
Speaker 3: to play, that this defense was going to be something.
Speaker 3: And I had them winning the NFC West and I
Speaker 3: have them at ten wins, so I didn't think they'd
Speaker 3: open up five. I know, mind you, so at some
Speaker 3: point they're gonna stub their toe. But this is kind
Speaker 3: of like the Patriots and the schedule that the Patriots
Speaker 3: have had, it's just kind of lay up city. And
Speaker 3: when you're playing a team like Washington that has Bill
Speaker 3: Callahan as the head coach. And what's remarkable is that
Speaker 3: people aren't talking nearly enough about how much of a
Speaker 3: jerk Bill Callahan is and everything he's done to change.
Speaker 3: I covered him at Nebraska when he was the head
Speaker 3: coach there, and they hated the guy. He does things
Speaker 3: that are not player friendly. Jay Gruden was the ultimate
Speaker 3: player friendly coach. Here comes Callahan. He shuts off practice,
Speaker 3: our music at practice. He makes them what run wind sprints.
Speaker 3: He's changing, you know, the locker room culture in a way.
Speaker 3: But you can't do that mid season because all the
Speaker 3: guys that were brought in are expecting to go and
Speaker 3: play for Jay Gruden, not Bill Callahan.
Speaker 2: So that's what I love.
Speaker 3: The Dolphins last week at plus three and a half,
Speaker 3: and I thought the team would actually lay down.
Speaker 2: And lose on purpose.
Speaker 3: There's no way they're gonna want to bash their head
Speaker 3: against that forty nine or defensive line and go hard here.
Speaker 3: And I don't care which are the three quarterbacks the
Speaker 3: Redskins are gonna play. They're not going to score or
Speaker 3: move the football on the forty nine ers, So to me,
Speaker 3: it's it's a I would look to the forty nine
Speaker 3: ers team total and see what that is at kickoff
Speaker 3: and see if that number is somewhat reasonable, because they're
Speaker 3: gonna score. It's just a matter of backdoor covers and
Speaker 3: a matter of late game touchdowns when the scrubs are
Speaker 3: in for the forty nine ers. But I'm not afraid
Speaker 3: of it too much. Laying double digits even here. The
Speaker 3: Redskins are absolute trash and the forty nine Ers are
Speaker 3: a legitimate team.
Speaker 2: And even if they're handling the balling.
Speaker 3: Off football and just running the football in the second half,
Speaker 3: they're still going to move the football and they're still
Speaker 3: going to score points against that Redskins defense. So I
Speaker 3: don't hate it at all. And I think the Redskins
Speaker 3: are If they win another game the rest of the year,
Speaker 3: I mean, I'd be somewhat surprised. I mean, one in
Speaker 3: fifteen is very possible for that Redskins team.
Speaker 1: I can't believe that you were on the forty nine
Speaker 1: ers ten wins in the preseason. I was not anywhere
Speaker 1: close to that. I did not expect them to be good,
Speaker 1: and it took me a long time to buy into
Speaker 1: them now. I mean honestly. I mean I had the
Speaker 1: Rams last week, and I thought that was going to
Speaker 1: be a spot where they were going to show up
Speaker 1: and kind of, you know, in a game that they
Speaker 1: really had to win and do it.
Speaker 2: But the Rams, Yeah, I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I was.
Speaker 2: I was on the Rams last week.
Speaker 3: But because I think there's a game here that we're
Speaker 3: gonna the forty nine Ers are running away with the West.
Speaker 3: I just I know the Seahawks are there, but I mean,
Speaker 3: I mean it's a team that you look at and
Speaker 3: you're like, hmm. I mean, their schedule, they're winning games
Speaker 3: you don't expect them to win. They're going on the road,
Speaker 3: They're beating the Rams. It's like, wow, like what this
Speaker 3: is really kind of surprising. They're pounding the Browns. I mean,
Speaker 3: it's just it's sort of surprising when you kind of
Speaker 3: break it down and realize how good they've been this
Speaker 3: early in the year. So I thought they win ten games,
Speaker 3: but I didn't expect them to come out of the
Speaker 3: gate this fast. And look, if you go through their
Speaker 3: their defensive line, and Bosa's been playing incredibly well for
Speaker 3: them that you know, this number two pick overall in
Speaker 3: the last draft, but they've got four other guys who
Speaker 3: were first round picks. The draft capital they have invested
Speaker 3: in their defensive line is ridiculous. So it's like, Okay,
Speaker 3: about time. These guys are playing this well, and Richard
Speaker 3: Sherman's playing decent in the back end, and so it's
Speaker 3: just when you have a front like this with this
Speaker 3: much talent, guys who are six foot seven that you know,
Speaker 3: shorter quarterbacks can't see over I mean Armistad and the
Speaker 3: rest of the guys.
Speaker 2: I mean, I really, if they stayed healthy.
Speaker 3: I was really high in the forty nine ers this year,
Speaker 3: and I mean if it's Patriots forty nine ers in Miami,
Speaker 3: it will not surprise me at all. That's what winds
Speaker 3: up being.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I mean it's you know, you have to
Speaker 1: assume it's going to be either them or the Saints
Speaker 1: at this point. But the forty nine ers are absolutely
Speaker 1: legitimate and they'd be a really, really scary team if
Speaker 1: they made it. All right, let's move on to your
Speaker 1: third pick. What do you got for me?
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 3: I am going to make everybody who is from New
Speaker 3: England angry, and I'm taking the Patriots and the Jets
Speaker 3: game as my third play. And I'm going to really
Speaker 3: hope CJ. Moseley plays, and I hope the extra day
Speaker 3: allows him to play, and if he can go, I
Speaker 3: like this pick even more. But even without him, I'm
Speaker 3: gonna take the points here. And if you're gonna play
Speaker 3: this game, wait for the public money to push this
Speaker 3: back to ten. It's nine nine and a half right now.
Speaker 3: For Patriots on the road on Monday Night football. I
Speaker 3: love it at ten. If you see it at ten,
Speaker 3: hammer it, jump on it. There's a couple of reasons why. One,
Speaker 3: this is the second time the Patriots and the Jets
Speaker 3: have played each other, so the Jets have seen the
Speaker 3: Patriots offense. The Patriots offensive line is not great, and
Speaker 3: they're gonna blitz Brady like crazy. This is gonna be
Speaker 3: similar to the Buffalo Bills game.
Speaker 2: In my opinion.
Speaker 3: The Patriots are gonna try to run the ball and
Speaker 3: get the hell out of there. They don't need to
Speaker 3: win that game by a lot. They don't need to
Speaker 3: blow the Jets out. And as Sam Donald comes back,
Speaker 3: the entire team is different for the Jets. We saw
Speaker 3: it last week against the Cowboys. He just changes everything
Speaker 3: for them. It makes you know, average players, C level
Speaker 3: receivers become B level receivers and B become.
Speaker 2: A and it just it affects everyone.
Speaker 3: They're gonna get after this offensive line for the Patriots,
Speaker 3: and they're gonna get up to their wide receivers. I
Speaker 3: mean the Patriots. You look at their numbers, Yep, it's impressive.
Speaker 3: But their schedule has been a joke. Okay, let's be frank.
Speaker 3: I'm a Patriot fan. Who they've played. It's been Cupcake City.
Speaker 3: We'll see what they do on the road against the
Speaker 3: Ravens coming up, and then they got their buy and
Speaker 3: then they have four incredibly difficult games after their bi
Speaker 3: So this is a typical Belichick game where he's gonna
Speaker 3: hand the ball off, run the ball, get out of town.
Speaker 2: Patriots win the game.
Speaker 3: I'm not saying they're losing, but I don't believe they're
Speaker 3: gonna cover a double digit spread on the road.
Speaker 2: I like home teams catching.
Speaker 3: Points in primetime, and if you're gonna give me ten,
Speaker 3: I'm almost automatically gonna take the dog without even looking
Speaker 3: at the teams. This is being a divisional game, Jets
Speaker 3: playing for pride, Sam Darnold coming back in this game.
Speaker 3: Patriots defense is very very good. I understand that, but
Speaker 3: I don't think this is a high scoring game. I
Speaker 3: don't hate to play on the under here as well
Speaker 3: on the game, but I'm gonna take the Jets plus
Speaker 3: the ten on Monday Night football.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I am a Jets fan, so I am going
Speaker 1: to admit that from Queen's So it's all right. I mean,
Speaker 1: there's like seven of us still left around. But I
Speaker 1: live in New England, so obviously my life is terrible.
Speaker 1: But I will say this, I probably don't have enough
Speaker 1: to bet it, but I agree with you. I do
Speaker 1: the under as well. By the way, I'm both both counts. Yes,
Speaker 1: I completely. First of all, I believe Josh Gordon was
Speaker 1: ruled out already earlier this evening. I'm almost positive Mosley's
Speaker 1: gonna play. He was at practice. He was doing mostly
Speaker 1: individual drills today, but I was watching videos of him.
Speaker 1: He looked great. I'm sure they've kind of been eyeing
Speaker 1: this game regardless of what's going on, because you know
Speaker 1: it's the Patriots, of course. And yeah, I agree, Look
Speaker 1: the Pats just the offense does not look The defense
Speaker 1: is great. It's totally legitimate. I get that they haven't
Speaker 1: played too many strong offenses, but the defense one hundred
Speaker 1: percent legitimate. But the Jets defense surprisingly is pretty good.
Speaker 1: The front seven is really good. They stop the run,
Speaker 1: they get to the quarterback, especially with Moseley there, he's
Speaker 1: gonna be able, you know, to improve their run defense.
Speaker 1: They're weak in the secondary other than Jamal Adams. The
Speaker 1: cornerbacks are not great. But you know, that's not you know,
Speaker 1: the Pats at this point. That's the thing. They don't
Speaker 1: have these dominant receivers right now at all. You know,
Speaker 1: it's basically Edelman, You've got who hasn't you know, has
Speaker 1: been nicked up the whole year, and he's gonna miss
Speaker 1: this game. So you know, whether or not Dorset comes back,
Speaker 1: you know, whoever they're gonna wind up throwing out there.
Speaker 1: I agree, man, I just do not see this as
Speaker 1: a game that the Patriots are going to smash them
Speaker 1: at all, as much as you know they want to
Speaker 1: because of the history, you know, and Belichick sort of doesn't.
Speaker 1: I agree in this instance. I think they just want
Speaker 1: to get out of there. They just want to get
Speaker 1: out of there without getting too beat up and take
Speaker 1: the win. And I agree that they probably will. But
Speaker 1: with that many points at home on Monday night, the
Speaker 1: crowd's going to be crazy. Everybody's going to be excited.
Speaker 1: And I agree with you completely in Darnald, I have
Speaker 1: been really annoyed at people who have drawn any conclusions
Speaker 1: whatsoever about the Jets with Luke Falk at quarterback. It's
Speaker 1: not like people were making these grand proclamations. But I
Speaker 1: love Darnald coming into the year, I thought he really
Speaker 1: showed a lot of growth last year. He's looked great
Speaker 1: so far. I mean, you know, the game against Buffalo.
Speaker 1: You realize how good that defense is now that we've
Speaker 1: seen them in several games. But he looked great last week.
Speaker 1: So I agree with you, man, that's a lot of
Speaker 1: points to be getting at home on Monday night. So
Speaker 1: it's at nine point five in our consensus, but I'm
Speaker 1: with you.
Speaker 3: If it can get to ten and even nine and
Speaker 3: a half, I don't hit it either. I mean, you know,
Speaker 3: Patrick Chung left the game last week with a chest injury.
Speaker 3: He'd already been dealing with with a heel injuries. Now
Speaker 3: he's got two and he's main a main cog in
Speaker 3: that back seven for the Patriots. And Darnell had a
Speaker 3: couple of big plays against the Cowboys last week. I mean,
Speaker 3: you know this is they play at home against the
Speaker 3: Browns next week, the Patriots do, and then they play
Speaker 3: on the road against the Ravens to get to the
Speaker 3: bye week. And the Patriots I think, are just gonna
Speaker 3: try to get to the bye They're gonna I mean,
Speaker 3: they might be undefeated when they get to the bye,
Speaker 3: But it wouldn't be crazy to me if they're eight
Speaker 3: and one when they get there. And I mean this,
Speaker 3: they always lose one game in the AFC East. They
Speaker 3: always go it's rare they go six and oh, they
Speaker 3: always go five and one.
Speaker 1: And they always usually in Miami.
Speaker 3: Right, it's at Miami or it's at Buffalo. Now they've
Speaker 3: got wins in both those places already, so maybe it's
Speaker 3: the Jets here, and the Jets get the victory against
Speaker 3: the Patriots. And I've been telling people who say, like,
Speaker 3: would you bet the Patriots going sixteen or no? And
Speaker 3: I'm like, absolutely not. I mean, Belichick literally said it
Speaker 3: with Dick Saban a couple of weeks ago that he
Speaker 3: was he wished in O seven that they had lost
Speaker 3: the game.
Speaker 2: So they're not gonna try for sixteen or no.
Speaker 3: If he's already saying we screwed up in seven by
Speaker 3: trying to go for undefeatedn't go nineteen or oh. So
Speaker 3: they're not interested in that. They just won another championship
Speaker 3: ring And you know, Brady, you pressure him, as we
Speaker 3: know you pressure him. You make a move in the pocket,
Speaker 3: and that's how you stop this Patriot offense. And frankly,
Speaker 3: they missed Gronkowski. I mean, it's just it's obvious that
Speaker 3: they miss an over the middle, big body guy in
Speaker 3: the red zone. And they've got three good running backs,
Speaker 3: but it depends. I mean, really, it's Ivy Beholder with
Speaker 3: Sony Michelle because he doesn't break tackles. He's great in
Speaker 3: the open field, but he's not a between the tackles runner.
Speaker 3: And Rex burkehead was nicked up and he's got a
Speaker 3: foot injury and he's questionable for this game. James White
Speaker 3: is not a guy who's gonna run hard in between
Speaker 3: the tackles.
Speaker 2: He's just not big enough.
Speaker 3: So you know, you just start looking at the Patriots
Speaker 3: offense that Jets defense, and you're thinking, huh, are they
Speaker 3: going to be able to score enough to cover a
Speaker 3: double digit line? And I just don't see it. I mean,
Speaker 3: I could easily see this game being like a fourteen
Speaker 3: to ten final where the Patriots are just lucky to
Speaker 3: get the victory. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Now, I'm with you, honestly on all accounts. I think
Speaker 1: it's not a great matchup for what the Pats are
Speaker 1: able to do on offense at this point. I think,
Speaker 1: you know, with the Jets you really need kind of
Speaker 1: an elite wide receiver because they don't really have that
Speaker 1: elite shutdown cornerback. And you know the Pats, you know
Speaker 1: Edelman's not that guy in that sense, So I agree
Speaker 1: with you. I'm with you on both that, and again
Speaker 1: I would bet the under on this one as well.
Speaker 1: For my final pick, I am going to go with
Speaker 1: the Bills and the Dolphins under forty and a half points.
Speaker 1: And I used to avoid all Dolphins lines and that
Speaker 1: won me money last week when I actually took them,
Speaker 1: so now I love them. But realistically, I think the
Speaker 1: Bills need maybe two defensive scores here if they're going
Speaker 1: to hit the over. I've talked a few times this
Speaker 1: season about the Bills defense, and I talked about it
Speaker 1: earlier today. Depletely legitimate. They've allowed the fourth fewest points,
Speaker 1: the third fewest yards, They're third against the pass. Tra
Speaker 1: Davious White and Levi Willas are playing really well at cornerback.
Speaker 1: Tremaine Edwins Matt Mlano have been great in coverage at
Speaker 1: a linebackers. I mean, Milana may not play, but it's
Speaker 1: not that huge a deal. Micha a Hide, Jordan Poyer.
Speaker 1: They can really they can rush the passer, they get pressure,
Speaker 1: they're very difficult to throw on. Ryan Fitzpatrick is going
Speaker 1: to start, and that doesn't make me feel that doesn't
Speaker 1: have any impact frankly on how I view the game,
Speaker 1: because I really don't know what to expect from either
Speaker 1: Fitzmagic or Josh Rosen at this point. But you know,
Speaker 1: the Dolphins allow four point six x per game. That's
Speaker 1: third worst than the NFL. He's going to be running
Speaker 1: for his life. They're set, you know, they they They're
Speaker 1: terrible at running the ball. They never give Kenyan Drake
Speaker 1: the ball to the extent you know they do obviously,
Speaker 1: you know calln baladge gets the goal line, touches, you know,
Speaker 1: want whatever. But on the other side, the Dolphins defense
Speaker 1: is terrible. But the Bills know they're going to be
Speaker 1: able to win this game without needing to pile up
Speaker 1: a ton of points, right, I mean, they only put
Speaker 1: up eighteen points per game. Their run game is their strength.
Speaker 1: Miami allows the second most rushing yards per game. They'll
Speaker 1: probably get Devin Singletary back here. Opposing offenses everage more
Speaker 1: than thirty one carries a game against the Dolphins, So
Speaker 1: I think this is just going to be a game
Speaker 1: where the Bills kind of take their time. They run
Speaker 1: the ball all the time, long drives, keep the clock moving.
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna give up much on defense.
Speaker 1: So I think the Bills have hit their under if
Speaker 1: I'm not mistaken, on every single game that they've played
Speaker 1: so far this year, I think they do it again here.
Speaker 1: I'll take the under over here at forty one.
Speaker 3: See, this is hard because I I'm petrified of what Miami.
Speaker 3: If Miami gets fourteen points, you might be in trouble.
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's a bet, though I'm willing to risk.
Speaker 1: I mean at this, I mean maybe not but fourteen points.
Speaker 1: You know, that's the thing, Like they scored what they
Speaker 1: get sixteen. I guess when they went for two last
Speaker 1: week is that they lost seventeen to sixteen. Yeah, and
Speaker 1: that knows the kicks magic is kind of coming back
Speaker 1: all the way at the end. Man, this is the
Speaker 1: Bills defense. I don't really see them being able to
Speaker 1: get two touchdowns. I understand you're absolutely right. I don't
Speaker 1: see them being able to get two touchdowns honestly.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean they've scored so far this year in totality,
Speaker 3: they have scored thirty two points if my math is right.
Speaker 3: So yeah, the Dolphin Dolphins has not done very much.
Speaker 3: But I like Fitzpatrick. I thought he should have been
Speaker 3: the start of the whole time. He's not working with
Speaker 3: a whole heck of a lot. I just worry about
Speaker 3: garbage time. If the Bills are up thirty to nothing.
Speaker 3: You know, dude, do they care about stopping Miami if
Speaker 3: they put in a couple of ridiculous end of the
Speaker 3: game touchdowns.
Speaker 2: I actually, I have to look at this.
Speaker 3: I was trying to find it while you were talking,
Speaker 3: and I don't think it's out yet, but the team
Speaker 3: total prop for Buffalo, for for Buffalo, what it might be,
Speaker 3: and I think if it's somewhere in the neighborhood. If
Speaker 3: you think if the you know, just guessing what the
Speaker 3: what the books are gonna put it at with you know,
Speaker 3: you're talking about a total here of forty one. My
Speaker 3: guess is the Bills are going to have some team
Speaker 3: total somewhere around thirty one would be my guess, maybe
Speaker 3: thirty four, somewhere in that range. And I might look
Speaker 3: at the implied team total for the Bills and play
Speaker 3: the under on what the what the implied team total
Speaker 3: of the Bills would be, because I just don't think
Speaker 3: Dolphin Dolphins can score. But if you set the line
Speaker 3: at forty one, you're gonna have to put the Bills
Speaker 3: number at pretty high.
Speaker 2: So that's one win angle.
Speaker 3: I might look to play and kind of eliminate the
Speaker 3: Dolphins altogether and not worry about what they're going to
Speaker 3: do to the total and just take the under on Buffalo.
Speaker 3: But it's going to be an ugly football game for sure.
Speaker 3: I mean it's it's an absolute no play for me
Speaker 3: on pretty much every on every aspect.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't want the spread whatsoever, which is seventeen
Speaker 1: at this point. I don't want anywhere near there. I mean,
Speaker 1: the Dolphins, these Giants spreads just make me nervous. I
Speaker 1: did say forty one. I think actually the consensus is
Speaker 1: forty and a half now, but that does not change
Speaker 1: how I want it. Yeah, I honestly I think the
Speaker 1: game could easily go over if the Bills want it to.
Speaker 1: And again, it's you know, you think about that Bengals
Speaker 1: game where they were ahead the entire game and then
Speaker 1: the Bengals just came storming back in the last quarter
Speaker 1: when the Bills. You know, they could have lost that game,
Speaker 1: of course, but they kind of, you know, took their
Speaker 1: foot off the gas a little bit, so that can
Speaker 1: certainly happen here. But I just, honestly, I don't see
Speaker 1: the Dolphins having enough to be able to do it.
Speaker 1: But you know, you make a fair point, and I
Speaker 1: like that. You know, we can disagree because we've basically
Speaker 1: just been like, yes, everything right, right, of course I
Speaker 1: love it. Well, I'm fine, all right.
Speaker 2: Just to back you up the five and oh with
Speaker 2: the unders of four in the.
Speaker 1: Games, That's what I said, right, Yeah, they've hit on
Speaker 1: the under every single time. It just strikes me as
Speaker 1: as much as they could. I think they're more than
Speaker 1: happy to just run Frank or all day long. Get
Speaker 1: Singletary back sort of into the fold. Let's just control
Speaker 1: the clock. The clock will bleed and then before you
Speaker 1: know it, the game will be over and they'll be
Speaker 1: at you know, thirty three points or something like that.
Speaker 1: But all right, let's recap here, Matt. You like the
Speaker 1: Eagles plus two and a half or three against the Cowboys, yep,
Speaker 1: the Colts laying one to the Texans, and the Jets
Speaker 1: getting ten or even nine and a half. You're willing
Speaker 1: to go, hopefully from the Patriots, which I like, of
Speaker 1: course as a Jets fan. I'm gonna take the Bears
Speaker 1: and Saints under thirty eight and a half, the forty
Speaker 1: nine Ers laying nine to the Redskins, and the Bills
Speaker 1: and Dolphins under forty and a half. So there you go.
Speaker 1: There are the picks six. Now, before we move on,
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Speaker 1: let's move on to it's a trap where we list
Speaker 1: the line that we are avoiding. Go ahead and start
Speaker 1: us off.
Speaker 3: Well, the game I'm gonna avoid is the Arizona Cardinals
Speaker 3: on the road at the New York Giants. So there
Speaker 3: are two big questionable players in this game, and there
Speaker 3: may be the biggest named players in the game outside
Speaker 3: of Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones, the two rookie quarterbacks.
Speaker 3: You got David Johnson who is probable, Saquon Barkley who
Speaker 3: is probable, but both most likely will not be one
Speaker 3: hundred percent going into this game. Arizona's coming off of
Speaker 3: a one point victory at home against the Falcons, and
Speaker 3: Kyler Murray was was named the NFC Player of the
Speaker 3: Offensive Player of the Week last week because of what
Speaker 3: he did. That offense is starting to come around. However,
Speaker 3: their defense is still absolutely horrendous. The Giants against bad
Speaker 3: defenses have been you know, okay, they put twenty four
Speaker 3: points up against the Redskins this season. I'm not going
Speaker 3: anywhere near this game for the Giants and the Cardinals.
Speaker 3: It may be highly entertaining. I can make a case
Speaker 3: for either side to win this game, but Giants laying
Speaker 3: the three, I'm avoiding.
Speaker 1: One hundred percent agree as usual. I'm sorry that I
Speaker 1: hate to do that, but I completely agree with the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: I don't know at all. I took the Falcons laying
Speaker 1: two and a half against the Cardinals last time, because
Speaker 1: I just I could not get out of my head
Speaker 1: that I Am not going to trust Cliff Kingsbury in
Speaker 1: a game with two offenses that are going to be
Speaker 1: able to move the ball and two defenses that can't
Speaker 1: stop anyone. I just sort of felt like the Falcons
Speaker 1: would come out, and here I just kind of feel
Speaker 1: like the same. I don't know, I do not know
Speaker 1: what to do. I imagine, like you said, both Barkley
Speaker 1: and Johnson are going to play. Ingram sounds like he's
Speaker 1: going to play as well, which well the Giants Shepherd
Speaker 1: sounds a little bit less certain at this point. But
Speaker 1: either way, I don't know. I have no idea what
Speaker 1: to do with this line. And there are a bunch
Speaker 1: of teams that I feel that way about, including the
Speaker 1: team that I am picking right now in the line
Speaker 1: to avoid, and that is the Titans laying two to
Speaker 1: the Chargers. I joke last week about putting the Titans
Speaker 1: here each and every week, and I pretty much meant,
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not actually going to do it, but
Speaker 1: for this week, absolutely, these are two teams, the Titans
Speaker 1: and the Chargers, that I do not understand at all,
Speaker 1: And forget about putting in Ryan Tannel over Marcus Mariota.
Speaker 1: They're basically that's like an even swap. To me, it's
Speaker 1: much more about that I don't know which version of
Speaker 1: either of these teams is showing up on any given week.
Speaker 1: The Titans defense is legitimate, but the offense is pretty abysmal,
Speaker 1: and the Chargers are an overwhelming disappointment. The offensive line
Speaker 1: is in total shambles, the defense has played poorly and
Speaker 1: been injured. Both teams are desperate for a win, and
Speaker 1: I have absolutely no idea how to view this game.
Speaker 1: There's no line that I would be able to look
Speaker 1: at and say, yeah, this feels about right to me,
Speaker 1: because I feel confident in picking one or the other
Speaker 1: at this point. If I had to gun to my head,
Speaker 1: if I had to, probably the Titans, just because it
Speaker 1: seems difficult to see how the Charters are going to
Speaker 1: protect Philip Rivers. But it's much more about the psyche
Speaker 1: of both of these teams, and I have no idea
Speaker 1: what to do. So for me, I'm avoiding the Titans
Speaker 1: laying two to the Charters.
Speaker 3: I'm hating on the Titans for the rest of the
Speaker 3: year because I bet them the last two weeks and
Speaker 3: I thought I had it right on both occasions. I
Speaker 3: thought I was going to see the tickets cash and unfortunately,
Speaker 3: even last week when it was three nothing on the
Speaker 3: road at Denver, I'm just watching Marcus Mariota miss so
Speaker 3: many open receivers.
Speaker 2: I don't blame them benching him.
Speaker 3: I think that was the right call with how well
Speaker 3: their defense plays, they get after the quarterback. But I
Speaker 3: don't know what to make of the Chargers to save
Speaker 3: my life either, I've lost money betting on the Chargers
Speaker 3: this year. I bet them against the Denver Broncos and
Speaker 3: that that didn't work out well. And I had them
Speaker 3: against the I had them against the Steelers last weekend
Speaker 3: that didn't work out well. I mean again, the narrative
Speaker 3: last week for me was teams that had to had
Speaker 3: to win who are at home. I thought, okay, with
Speaker 3: under a touchdown line that they were going to be
Speaker 3: able to do it, and almost across the board, it
Speaker 3: was an outright loss for those teams last week. So
Speaker 3: when you paint a picture and the picture goes against
Speaker 3: you in every single way, that's how you wind up
Speaker 3: with the week that.
Speaker 2: I had last week, which was just kind of.
Speaker 3: Duck and cover but I can't trust the Chargers either.
Speaker 3: I can't trust the Titans either. I think they made
Speaker 3: the right decision here. I don't like Ryan Tannehill. I
Speaker 3: couldn't stand him at the Dolphins with the Dolphins, but
Speaker 3: I think it's the right move because he looked at
Speaker 3: least competent throwing the football and comfortable throwing the ball
Speaker 3: down the field.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean I hated the Titans in the preseason.
Speaker 1: It was because I just I could never back Marcus
Speaker 1: Mariotta at all. So I'm fine to make that switch
Speaker 1: at this point. There are a bunch of teams, by
Speaker 1: the way, that I will put in this bucket of
Speaker 1: no because I every time I bet them, I bet wrong.
Speaker 1: The Bucks are another team. I have no sense of
Speaker 1: what the Bucks are gonna do on any given week.
Speaker 1: I've been wrong in them like four straight weeks, just
Speaker 1: sort of being like, yeah, there's a game here, they come,
Speaker 1: they gonna bounce back, and then nothing, and then they
Speaker 1: go crazy against the Rams. So Titans are definitely in that.
Speaker 1: So I'm avoiding the Titans link two to the Chargers.
Speaker 1: You are avoiding the Cardinals getting three from the Giants.
Speaker 1: All right, let us move on to our final segment,
Speaker 1: Top Prop, where we list our top player prop of
Speaker 1: the week. Matt go ahead and started off.
Speaker 3: Sure, I'm gonna go back to the Monday nighter here
Speaker 3: and kind of stay with the narrative for that Jets
Speaker 3: d being able to control the Patriots and the Patriots
Speaker 3: coming into the game just wanting to run the football.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go under Tom Brady completions of twenty four
Speaker 3: and a half. Now it's minus one ten, so it's
Speaker 3: not really heavily juiced up. But I just think that
Speaker 3: Jets defense is going to be able to slow that
Speaker 3: Patriots offense down, and I think the Patriots want to
Speaker 3: run the football and basically get the heck out of there.
Speaker 3: Against the Buffalo Bills, Brady only had eighteen completions. I
Speaker 3: think we could see a very similar number here. I'll
Speaker 3: be surprised if Brady gets into the twenties, just because
Speaker 3: of this desire to not have Brady sitting back there
Speaker 3: like a duck, allowing this defensive line in linebackers to
Speaker 3: blitz Brady and get after the quarterback. So I think
Speaker 3: the Patriots are going to really try to run the ball,
Speaker 3: limit Brady and not throw the football a lot, So
Speaker 3: I like Brady under twenty four and a half completions
Speaker 3: on Monday Night, So.
Speaker 1: I don't hate that. My only thing is that my
Speaker 1: guess is when they do pass, it's gonna be a
Speaker 1: lot of short passes, like it's gonna be a lot
Speaker 1: of things to James White and stuff like that, because
Speaker 1: they're not going to want to let Brady gets it there.
Speaker 1: And I don't know whether or not they're going to
Speaker 1: be able to run the ball all that. Well. I
Speaker 1: think they're gonna play conservative game, they'll be able to
Speaker 1: win and stuff like that. My only concern with that,
Speaker 1: like whatever the yardage prop is, I would probably go
Speaker 1: under that because I don't see a big throwing game
Speaker 1: or anything like that. But my worry with that one
Speaker 1: would be that I could see a lot of just
Speaker 1: kind of dump offs, quick passes, quick you know, things
Speaker 1: like that, where the completion number sort of piles up
Speaker 1: without the yards. You know what I'm saying.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they didn't put a yards number up. I think
Speaker 2: for that very reason.
Speaker 3: I think that as of right now, I'm looking at
Speaker 3: the West Gate here in Las Vegas for player props,
Speaker 3: and they don't have a Brady prop they've got a
Speaker 3: Brady touchdowns for one and a half, and they've got
Speaker 3: in Brady completions.
Speaker 2: I just I get your point.
Speaker 3: About the dink and dunk, and it starts to add
Speaker 3: up for the Patriots, But I don't think they want
Speaker 3: to put Brady into the position where all of a sudden,
Speaker 3: you know, if Edelman's not one hundred percent and we
Speaker 3: know he's a little bit nicked up, they double team
Speaker 3: the slot take away that guy. I mean, it's door set,
Speaker 3: it's Jacobe Myers, it's you know, if there's no Josh Gordon.
Speaker 3: I just don't know who Brady throws to. I just
Speaker 3: don't think they have a receiving corps. And maybe it's
Speaker 3: James White coming out of the backfield and they run
Speaker 3: a bunch of a bunch of screen passes to the
Speaker 3: running backs. But I don't I'm concerned about the Patriot
Speaker 3: offense on Monday Night.
Speaker 1: I think all of that is fair. I am going
Speaker 1: to take Leonard Fournette over one hundred and twenty five
Speaker 1: yards rushing and it's plus two fifty, so that's obviously
Speaker 1: where we're going here. I don't necessarily think that the
Speaker 1: odds are going for him to go over there. But
Speaker 1: this perfect situation, right, it's a game in which the
Speaker 1: Jaguars are favored. Burnette gets all of the carries. You know,
Speaker 1: he's giving a couple now to Rock Armstead, but barely any.
Speaker 1: The Bengals allow one hundred and eighty four and a
Speaker 1: half yards per game on the ground. Fournette has averaged
Speaker 1: twenty four carries over his last three games. He's averaging
Speaker 1: five point one yards per carry on the season, including
Speaker 1: games against the Saints and the Titans, two teams that
Speaker 1: are good against the run. He is just going to
Speaker 1: get fed a whole lot here, and if he sees
Speaker 1: his normal volume of carries, he has a good shot
Speaker 1: to go over this mark. So given the fact that
Speaker 1: it's plus two fifty, I'm gonna take that all that long.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate that at all.
Speaker 3: I mean, I think also the narrative that we're talking
Speaker 3: about is is on point because of you know, Gardner meanshew,
Speaker 3: and let's to see what this offense the hype is.
Speaker 3: I don't want to say Warren off a little bit,
Speaker 3: but I think people are starting to figure out what
Speaker 3: he is and what he can and cannot do. And
Speaker 3: I mean that offensive line is good enough. I think
Speaker 3: the Jaguars just based off the Jalen Ramsey trade, and
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna want to come out and prove
Speaker 3: a point. And I think you're gonna get the good
Speaker 3: version of the Jaguars. There's kind of two different versions
Speaker 3: of that team right now. I think you'll get the
Speaker 3: good version of the Jaguars, and a lot of times
Speaker 3: that means slamming the ball down the opposing team's throat.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't actually love them laying three and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm a little sort of you know, I'm a little
Speaker 1: torn on it with what it's going to be because
Speaker 1: I just have the weird feeling that the Bengals are
Speaker 1: going to come out and keep this game competitive. But
Speaker 1: I do think that regardless they're going to run the ball,
Speaker 1: the Jaguars are gonna run.
Speaker 2: I hate the Bengals.
Speaker 3: I hate the Bengals, And maybe this is going back
Speaker 3: to the Bill Callahan hate. But I was covering Nebraska
Speaker 3: when Zach Taylor was the quarterback for the Huskers and
Speaker 3: the fact that that dude is is a head coach
Speaker 3: and the average age of his coaching staff is thirty seven.
Speaker 3: You know, as I mentioned in the preseason, I was
Speaker 3: telling you ten losses or ten wins for for the
Speaker 3: forty nine ers. In July, I was standing on tables
Speaker 3: telling everybody that the Bengals were going to be competing
Speaker 3: for the first pick in the draft, that they were
Speaker 3: going to be absolutely awful, and the number was six,
Speaker 3: and I was saying, just hammer the under on the
Speaker 3: Bengals team total, because they're not a good football team.
Speaker 3: And if they get off to a rough start, which
Speaker 3: they did because their schedule was relatively tough, there's no
Speaker 3: coach on that staff that has any experience pulling teams
Speaker 3: out of tailspins. And aj Green should never play another
Speaker 3: down for the Bengals for the rest of his career.
Speaker 3: He should pull a Jalen Ramsey just say I'm not
Speaker 3: playing guys. Get me the hell out of here. Sorry,
Speaker 3: Andy Dalton. I know you need me, but I want
Speaker 3: no part of being around this dumpster fire. Why they
Speaker 3: decided to hire a thirty six year old head coach
Speaker 3: just because he had been close to Sean McVay made
Speaker 3: absolutely no sense. After Marvin Lewis was there for so
Speaker 3: long and he had so much stability in that head
Speaker 3: coaching position, it was the worst hire of the year
Speaker 3: to go get Zach Taylor, and it was the latest.
Speaker 3: You remember, it was the last of all the vague
Speaker 3: guys they went and got, and they gave the head
Speaker 3: coaching job to somebody who had never been a head
Speaker 3: coach anywhere.
Speaker 2: Ever.
Speaker 3: It's just such a stupid, typical Bengals move to hire
Speaker 3: a guy like that, and I fade them. I have
Speaker 3: no problem betting against them every single week because I
Speaker 3: just I don't think they're any.
Speaker 1: Good man, Matt, you are bringing the fire, and I
Speaker 1: love it. I've gone with the Bengals a couple of
Speaker 1: times because on the road. You know, over the last
Speaker 1: few seasons, they've actually been great covering. And you know
Speaker 1: this year, you know, the only time, I guess I
Speaker 1: thought one at a time, but I remember taking them
Speaker 1: in Buffalo against the Bills where they did manage to
Speaker 1: cover the six point spread. But yeah, you know, you
Speaker 1: make you make a lot of good points. And my
Speaker 1: guess is that Aj Green will not play another game
Speaker 1: for the Bengals. It is my guess. But those are
Speaker 1: really good points. And I'm glad I didn't pick that
Speaker 1: game for one of my picks, because we would have
Speaker 1: gotten off to a crazy start. But anyway, that is
Speaker 1: it for today's show. Thanks again for joining me, Matt.
Speaker 1: Remind everyone where they can find more of you and your.
Speaker 3: Work sure at sports Talk Matt is the Twitter account,
Speaker 3: the Better Network and eSPI Nation Radio. If you use
Speaker 3: tune in you can get the show. We're on from
Speaker 3: one to four Eastern part of the Better Network on
Speaker 3: tune in or eSPI Nation Live dot com is a
Speaker 3: direct stream for Espidation Radio from ten to one Pacific
Speaker 3: one to four. We come out of the Palms Casino
Speaker 3: and CG Sportsbooks and we have a lot of fun
Speaker 3: breaking down games. A lot of insiders, a lot of
Speaker 3: Las Vegas bookmakers join us on the program and talk
Speaker 3: a lot about what's happening behind the counter. So we
Speaker 3: try to take you into the wriskroom, if you will,
Speaker 3: to find out what the books need every week.
Speaker 1: All right, well, thanks again for coming on the show, Matt.
Speaker 1: I hope we can do it again before the season ends.
Speaker 2: Would love to. Thanks for the invite, really appreciate it. All right.
Speaker 1: I want to remind everyone about bet MGM, where you
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Speaker 1: my friends. We'll be back breaking down the early lines
Speaker 1: next week.