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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of this information.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree on five dollars? This is a regular level.

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Speaker 3: Happny tackle ship one.

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Speaker 2: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 2: Humans need fantasy to be.

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Speaker 1: My goodness, that's good. I suppose the.

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Speaker 3: Best, relentless refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, babe less.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Week eleven Fantasy Flex Props Podcast presented

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Speaker 2: by Prize Picks. I am your host, Chris Raybond joint

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Speaker 2: is always with my dude, Sean kerner Shaw. What's going on?

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Speaker 1: What's up?

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Speaker 3: Happy? AJ Dellarwick. It's finally AJ Dellarwick. So I'm very happy.

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Speaker 3: All right, now Christmas comes early to my Dynasty team

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Speaker 3: this week.

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Speaker 1: So how are you doing?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm doing pretty good. It's uh, it is AJ Dillon.

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Speaker 2: We think we've had this. We haven't had this since yeah,

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Speaker 2: because Jones actually managed to play all the games last year.

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Speaker 3: And no, yeah it was Jamal Williams. Oh yeah, Jones

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Speaker 3: best two games. I was all excited. It was Jamal Williams.

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Speaker 3: You called that before the season started, but.

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Speaker 2: Right, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Hey, you guys are Ajick. Yes, okay,

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Speaker 2: only you're late. It's not too bad, all right, So

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Speaker 2: we will as usual, we'll do our top ten props.

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Speaker 2: Before we get into that, we will break down the

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Speaker 2: Sunday night football showdown Slate. It's the Pittsburgh Steelers going

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Speaker 2: to the Chargers home to take on the Chargers. This

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Speaker 2: is a classic Steelers ugly Mike Tomlin underdog spot, So

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Speaker 2: you know, keep that in mind. I think Tomlin something

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Speaker 2: like that over seventy percent as an underdog against the

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Speaker 2: spread from week and he's won like sixty percent of

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Speaker 2: the games outright. So just because you see the line

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Speaker 2: and it's Chargers, I think minus five and a half

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Speaker 2: doesn't necessarily mean the game's gonna go according to plan.

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Speaker 2: So with that in mind, Sean, who do you like

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Speaker 2: in the captain spot for this Steelers Charges matchup?

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Speaker 3: So on the Steeler side, it's it's kind of murky

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Speaker 3: right now. We don't know if Big Ben is gonna

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Speaker 3: be able to play. He's still on the COVID list.

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Speaker 3: And then Chase Claypool, you know, he might come back

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Speaker 3: from his injury, he might not, So either way, I'm

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Speaker 3: going nause Harris here. You know, the Chargers ranked dead

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Speaker 3: last and DVO against the run, and we know Nause

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Speaker 3: will get his touches, so I think he'll be efficient

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Speaker 3: here as well. So he's kind of a no brainer

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Speaker 3: on the Steeler side in my opinion, and then Charger side,

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna have to go with my boy Mike Williams

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Speaker 3: like he's bound to break out of this slump at

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Speaker 3: some point. He still gets a ton of high value targets.

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Speaker 3: Only seven other pass catchers have seen seven or more

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Speaker 3: end zone targets and fourteen or more targets downfield, so

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Speaker 3: I think Mike Williams will get his I think, you know,

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Speaker 3: just lately, Herbert has only had eyes for Kean Allen.

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Speaker 3: I understand that he's opened on nearly every play, but

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Speaker 3: the Chargers are going to have to get Mike Williams

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Speaker 3: of bald.

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Speaker 1: I think this is a spot he could have a

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Speaker 1: big game.

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Speaker 3: So I'll have a lot of Mike Williams and the

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Speaker 3: Captain stock because I think he does have the higher

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Speaker 3: ceiling than Keenan Allen.

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Speaker 2: The funnest thing about this Charger team is that they

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Speaker 2: might have a receiver named Maurice French active and he

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Speaker 2: has two f in his name, so it's it's not

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Speaker 2: former a Chiefs player, right right, it's not fri n

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Speaker 2: F f r e N, which is probably the weirdest

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Speaker 2: of something I've ever seen in all life. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: I agree with Nause. I think that's the guy for me,

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Speaker 2: you know. And I try not to get too cute

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Speaker 2: on these showdown slates. I usually, you know, because you know,

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Speaker 2: you have so many of them throughout the course of

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Speaker 2: the year that I try to take a stand and

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Speaker 2: plan a flag in the captain spot. I'm not, you know,

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Speaker 2: mixing up exposure too much, which you know, when it hits,

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Speaker 2: it hits. When it doesn't, it doesn't. But I think

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Speaker 2: Naji is the clear choice. If I had to pick

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Speaker 2: a charger, I'd still go Keenan Allen, just because he's

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Speaker 2: been so consistent and I think he has, you know,

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Speaker 2: against this Pittsburgh defense, it is a little bit banged up.

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Speaker 2: I think, you know, they could kind of didn't get

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Speaker 2: Dune get down the field. So I'm still looking for

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Speaker 2: that Mike Williams breakout I do like to call, but

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Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know. I think they're saying it's

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Speaker 2: nothing wrong with his knee and it's not the issue,

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Speaker 2: but it's gotta because he started so hot and just

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Speaker 2: kind of tailed off precipitously down the stretch. All right,

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Speaker 2: what do we like for our DFSP coats.

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Speaker 3: So on the on the charger side, Josh Palmer is

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Speaker 3: the guy. I said before the season started that it's

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Speaker 3: only a matter of time before he passes up Jalen

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Speaker 3: Geiton as the number three receiver on this offense. And

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Speaker 3: it's immediately taken it longer than I expected, but it

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Speaker 3: seems to be coming. You know, the past two games,

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Speaker 3: Guidan's average about forty five percent routes run, Palmer's been

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Speaker 3: closure of thirty five percent. So I think this could

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Speaker 3: be the game where Palmer actually ends up playing more

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Speaker 3: than Geyton. You know, Palmer's a third round pick, He's

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Speaker 3: out of Tennessee. Some people compared him like a Terry McClory,

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Speaker 3: Michael Gallup. He has some talent and just you know,

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Speaker 3: being the number three receiver in this offense comes with

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Speaker 3: some value. So I think just this is the time,

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Speaker 3: this is the slate to kind of load up on

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Speaker 3: Palmer before his potential breakout. So we'll have quite a

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Speaker 3: bit of shares of Palmer here. And then on the

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Speaker 3: Steelers side, again, we don't know if Big Ben's playing

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Speaker 3: or Chase Claypole's playing, but I'm gonna stick with James

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Speaker 3: Washington here. You know, he's he's a good deep threat,

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Speaker 3: and he's the kind of player that can break this

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Speaker 3: late on a single reception. I mean, he kind of

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Speaker 3: did that the other week against the Bears. So I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna stick with James Washington on the Steeler side. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I like to call for Palmer. That's the guy I

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Speaker 3: was looking at. You know, he's closed a gap on

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Speaker 3: guy in.

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Speaker 2: Brandon Staley made a comment about the lack of production

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Speaker 2: from that number three receiver spot as something that's been

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Speaker 2: kind of slowing down to charge your offense. So I

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Speaker 2: do like Palmer. I think that, you know, they're still

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Speaker 2: trying to find these deep shots and and and and

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Speaker 2: they're not getting them. So Guiden's becoming less valuable because

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Speaker 2: it seems like weleek wide. Everyone's playing the same defense

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Speaker 2: that Brandon Staley loves to play on the other side,

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Speaker 2: which is two deep safeties, take away the deep shots,

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Speaker 2: and wet teams have to make Teams have to drive

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Speaker 2: up and down the field, but I think that, you know,

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Speaker 2: suits a guy like Palmer bigger target a little better

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Speaker 2: than a guy like Geyton, who, uh you know, he's

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Speaker 2: out there just running wind sprints essentially, or maybe he'll

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Speaker 2: get like a handoff here or there. But yeah, it

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Speaker 2: hasn't been pretty. So it's Josh Palmer is definitely the

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Speaker 2: guy for me. Like you said, we don't know who's

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Speaker 2: what's going on the Steelers side yet, but we are

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Speaker 2: on a showdown sleet and the Chargers do like to

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Speaker 2: play their tight end. So you also got to keep

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Speaker 2: like Steven Anderson and uh oh not step him. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: Anderson plays fullback now a lot, like you know, because

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Speaker 2: gave neighbors for whatever reason. I don't know.

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Speaker 3: Is he hurt or is he just being scratched he

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Speaker 3: was hurt, Yeah, I think he was hurt. It's a

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Speaker 3: mixture of both. But yeah, I noticed that. And Trey McKitty,

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Speaker 3: the rookie out snapped Steven Arison in terms of a

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Speaker 3: pass catching tight end. But our boy Donald Parham former

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Speaker 3: XFL legend, I mean, if he's not the touchdown vulture

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Speaker 3: this like, I don't know who is.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, if like he's gonna he's gonna either he's got

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Speaker 2: two true outcomes. It's like touchdown or penalty, or a

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Speaker 2: penalty that calls back someone else's touchdown like that. That's

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Speaker 2: all Daughter Parham does on the field. But yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 2: I think one of those three guys is what I'm

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Speaker 2: trying to say, Like they were the we pretty close

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Speaker 2: in routes run last game. I mean, Parham had twenty

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Speaker 2: four percent per drop back, McKitty sixteen Anderson eleven. It's

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Speaker 2: kind of been flip flopping, you know, throughout the last

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Speaker 2: two weeks. So I think all of them are kind

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Speaker 2: of in. It's they're dark throws, right, But yeah, I

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Speaker 2: could fill out that last spot in your lineup. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's get into our props for week eleven. What we

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Speaker 2: like to do on this show is we look at

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Speaker 2: the prize picks line. We take a quarterback prop, two

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Speaker 2: running back props, and three receiver props. So sean start

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Speaker 2: us off where you're going for QB.

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Speaker 3: So I'm going with Joe Burrow over two hundred and

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Speaker 3: fifty five and a half passing yards against the Raiders.

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Speaker 3: This line seems like twenty five to thirty yards too low.

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Speaker 3: You know, this doesn't seem like a tough matchup. The

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Speaker 3: Raiders ranked twenty second in DVOA against the pass. I've

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Speaker 3: talked about this game being a potential shootout all week.

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Speaker 3: I love stacking this game in DFS, so I'm going

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Speaker 3: way over this. Burrow's gone over this total in seven

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Speaker 3: and nine games. One of the times he went under

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Speaker 3: he didn't have t Higgins, and that was you know,

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Speaker 3: those two games were early in the season when the

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Speaker 3: Bengals were a bit more run heavy, So I see

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Speaker 3: no reason for this number to be this low.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going way over this.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, having about fifteen twenty yards over as well. I

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Speaker 2: do think that it's interesting because I do think the

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Speaker 2: Raiders actually match up well with the Bengals in this spot.

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Speaker 2: The Bengals average over three yards less versus his own

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Speaker 2: coverage per attempt than man, and the Raiders obviously have

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Speaker 2: to play his own So maybe that's what they're taking

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Speaker 2: into account. I don't know, but I've taken that into

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Speaker 2: account and I still have this number, you know, in

185
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Speaker 2: the two seventies. So either way, there's value on this

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Speaker 2: number here at some fifty five and a half, all

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Speaker 2: right for my quarterback problem going justin fields over thirty

188
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Speaker 2: and a half rushing yards. He's been over this in

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Speaker 2: each of the past four games. And the reason is

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Speaker 2: that we've talked about this. He wasn't scrambling at all

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Speaker 2: almost in his first four starts usually saw him around

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Speaker 2: zero or one. And now he's scrambling, you know, five

193
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Speaker 2: plus times per game. Here has cleared this number in

194
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Speaker 2: each of his last four, So I'm expecting him to

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Speaker 2: go over this again. I have it in the low forties,

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Speaker 2: so I see quite a bit of value at this number.

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Speaker 2: At thirty and a half.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, like we said, like anything under forty right now

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Speaker 3: for fields seems too low. So yeah, thirty and a half,

200
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Speaker 3: I'm going over that as well.

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Speaker 2: All right, where are we going with our first running

202
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Speaker 2: back prop?

203
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Speaker 3: So I'm going with Montgomery over forty nine and a

204
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Speaker 3: half rushing yards. You know, he was able to return

205
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Speaker 3: from his knee injury just before their Week ten by

206
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Speaker 3: and he looked really good, and I was surprised to

207
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Speaker 3: see how much he dominated the rush attempts between he

208
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Speaker 3: and Clil Herbert. You know, Montgomery had thirteen carries to

209
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Speaker 3: Herbert's four. So it looks like Montgomery is gonna return

210
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Speaker 3: to more of a warhorse role. He should be even

211
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Speaker 3: closer two hundred percent following their by So I love

212
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Speaker 3: him to go over this. And you know, he's gotten

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Speaker 3: over this number four out of five games this year,

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Speaker 3: so it's not like, you know, this line is too

215
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Speaker 3: high or anything. But yeah, I'm projecting him closer to

216
00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:38,480
Speaker 3: sixty you know, sixty to sixty five yards here. I

217
00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:41,400
Speaker 3: just think he has a much higher floor than I anticipated.

218
00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:43,880
Speaker 3: You know, even heading into week nine, I thought it

219
00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:45,840
Speaker 3: was gonna be more of a split backfield. But I'm

220
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Speaker 3: pretty confident that he'll.

221
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Speaker 1: Go over this.

222
00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:51,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, this number was kind of interesting. It seems maybe

223
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Speaker 2: you know, I know, Williams could be back. Maybe the

224
00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:56,080
Speaker 2: books are worried. I it's gonna be like a three

225
00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:58,320
Speaker 2: way thing. I don't think it's going to be much

226
00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:01,240
Speaker 2: of a split at all. Baltimore is fifteenth and run

227
00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:04,680
Speaker 2: defense TV away, so they've been kind of mediocre. So yeah,

228
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Speaker 2: we got we got two Bears rushing over all.

229
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Speaker 1: Right.

230
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think he probably does benefit, you know, from

231
00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:14,559
Speaker 3: Justin Fields breaking out as a runner too, And interestingly

232
00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:16,840
Speaker 3: enough like that, the only game he went under this

233
00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:20,280
Speaker 3: year under this number was Justin Field's debut. We're hailing

234
00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:22,440
Speaker 3: through for sixty eight yards and they barely moved the ball.

235
00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:25,760
Speaker 3: So I think just justin Field's playing much better is

236
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Speaker 3: partly why I think, you know, I love this problem.

237
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Speaker 2: Yeah, and it should be one of those well scoring,

238
00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:34,640
Speaker 2: got ugly games. I mean, Lamar Jackson seems you know,

239
00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:37,240
Speaker 2: they're giving him the every like somebody said he's like

240
00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:39,800
Speaker 2: setting the record for like non COVID illnesses. Like it

241
00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,640
Speaker 2: seems like every practice he's just sent home with a

242
00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:46,400
Speaker 2: non COVID illness. Who knows what that means, but either way,

243
00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:48,680
Speaker 2: this seems like one of those games where they're gonna

244
00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:51,559
Speaker 2: kind of keep it on the ground, all right. For

245
00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:56,559
Speaker 2: my first running back prop, going toll reliable fading backs

246
00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:59,360
Speaker 2: against the Saints, Jordan Howard under thirty seven and a

247
00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:02,520
Speaker 2: half rushing yards. I have this in the low thirties,

248
00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:04,560
Speaker 2: so I still see quite a bit of value here.

249
00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:06,199
Speaker 2: I think this already dropped from forty two and a

250
00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,880
Speaker 2: half to thirty seven and a half. And even though

251
00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:12,800
Speaker 2: Howard's been the lead back, when you kind of divvy

252
00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:14,720
Speaker 2: up the carriers the way they've been doing it over

253
00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:17,240
Speaker 2: these last three weeks between Howard, who's again been the

254
00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:21,760
Speaker 2: lead back, and Kenn's gainwell and Boston Scott, who's been

255
00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:24,480
Speaker 2: more the backup game one hasn't really factored in too much.

256
00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:26,760
Speaker 2: You still don't come out with this high of a

257
00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:29,680
Speaker 2: number for Howard against the Saints defense. They're allowing just

258
00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:33,360
Speaker 2: two point nine yards per carry two opposing running backs

259
00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:36,280
Speaker 2: and they are number one in the league and run

260
00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:38,880
Speaker 2: defense DV Away. So I know Howard's gone over this number,

261
00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:42,000
Speaker 2: but it's kind of telling that it's so the number

262
00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:44,040
Speaker 2: is so low even though Howard's been over this number

263
00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:46,360
Speaker 2: in each of the last three games, which is why,

264
00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,040
Speaker 2: and it's because of that Saints defense. So I don't

265
00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:50,480
Speaker 2: think that they come out with that same kind of

266
00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:53,400
Speaker 2: game plan here to just run the ball against this defense.

267
00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:54,839
Speaker 2: No one's been able to do it. I mean, we

268
00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:59,200
Speaker 2: saw Adrian Peterson and forming all those guys try last week.

269
00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:01,480
Speaker 2: Every week we see t tried to do it every week.

270
00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:03,600
Speaker 2: It seems like the books try to set these props

271
00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:07,320
Speaker 2: low enough and they still go under. So going overlive

272
00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:10,640
Speaker 2: with Jordan Howard under thirty seven and a half rushing

273
00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:11,720
Speaker 2: yards against the thing.

274
00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:13,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is like the perfect storm where you get

275
00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:16,240
Speaker 3: to sell high on Jordan Howard and you know, Fader

276
00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:18,920
Speaker 3: running back against the Saints defense. But you know, there's

277
00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:22,480
Speaker 3: been no denying that Howard's been great these past three games.

278
00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:24,760
Speaker 3: But it's been just perfect game scripts from they have

279
00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:27,640
Speaker 3: the two blowouts and then the one game against the

280
00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:30,840
Speaker 3: worst rundy in all football and the Chargers. So yeah,

281
00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:33,480
Speaker 3: love the Howard fit as well. I'm projecting this coaster

282
00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:35,840
Speaker 3: like thirty three and a half and he has a

283
00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:36,480
Speaker 3: lower four than that.

284
00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:39,680
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, he's got one of those like five yards

285
00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:42,880
Speaker 2: deer yard of course. All right, we're you going with

286
00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:44,160
Speaker 2: your second running back prop.

287
00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:48,559
Speaker 3: I'm going with Miles Gaskin over thirty five and a

288
00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:49,720
Speaker 3: half rushing yards.

289
00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:50,160
Speaker 1: Now.

290
00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:52,320
Speaker 3: Ever, since Malcolm Brown went down in the week eight,

291
00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:56,480
Speaker 3: carries really haven't the issue for Gaskin. He's seen twelve

292
00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:59,800
Speaker 3: or more carries in the past three games, but efficiency

293
00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:02,040
Speaker 3: has been an issue. He's only averaged two point two

294
00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:04,600
Speaker 3: yards per carry, so he's only gone over this number

295
00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,440
Speaker 3: once since Brown went down. But I think he's going

296
00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:11,680
Speaker 3: to bounce back here and positively regress closer to like

297
00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:13,280
Speaker 3: a three and a half yards per carry.

298
00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:14,480
Speaker 1: That'll be good enough here.

299
00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:17,679
Speaker 3: But you know, the the Jets ranked thirty first in

300
00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:19,840
Speaker 3: DBO against the run. Dolphins are a three and a

301
00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:21,520
Speaker 3: half point favorite, so it could be more of a

302
00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:24,000
Speaker 3: run heavy game script than we're used to seeing from them.

303
00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:26,840
Speaker 3: And Salvian Akhmed hasn't really mixed in as much as

304
00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:28,920
Speaker 3: I thought he would, and Patrick Glaird is really just

305
00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:30,800
Speaker 3: the pass catching back, so I think most of the

306
00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:33,480
Speaker 3: carries are going to go to Gaskin. So thirty five

307
00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:35,440
Speaker 3: and a half that's not a real high bar to clear,

308
00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,040
Speaker 3: so I think he goes over this pretty easily.

309
00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:42,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I had this circled as well. Listen, I know

310
00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:46,400
Speaker 2: Gaskin's been inefficient, and he's actually been mind numbingly inefficient,

311
00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:49,680
Speaker 2: you know. It's it's getting to that level of remember

312
00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:52,640
Speaker 2: Klin Blage a couple of years ago. Yeah, yeah, average

313
00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:55,080
Speaker 2: like you know, point point negative point one yards of

314
00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:58,320
Speaker 2: carry or something like that it seemed like. But again,

315
00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:00,960
Speaker 2: this Jets defense is not very good. So I still

316
00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,640
Speaker 2: have gasking you know, right around four yards per carry. Again,

317
00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:05,520
Speaker 2: there's a lot of regression in that in that number,

318
00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:08,200
Speaker 2: and I am projecting him for thirteen point eight carries,

319
00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:10,640
Speaker 2: So yeah, I have this in the in the low fifties,

320
00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:13,120
Speaker 2: So I see quite a bit of value on this again,

321
00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:14,840
Speaker 2: when you look at the game logs, you get a

322
00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:17,720
Speaker 2: little queasy. But you know, if you're just being realistic

323
00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:19,640
Speaker 2: about how many carries he's gonna get, I mean he

324
00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:22,920
Speaker 2: could bust like, you know, one one decent run, like

325
00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:25,040
Speaker 2: a you know, a fifteen to twenty yarder, and he

326
00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:27,720
Speaker 2: probably gets out of this number. So uh yeah, I

327
00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:31,320
Speaker 2: like this one as well. All right for my second

328
00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:33,440
Speaker 2: running back prop up, go a running back in this

329
00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:36,200
Speaker 2: same game, Michael Carter under thirty one and a half

330
00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:39,520
Speaker 2: receiving yards. He's been under this number in five out

331
00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,200
Speaker 2: of his nine games. But this is really about the

332
00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:47,240
Speaker 2: matchup and the circumstances that are now happening with this

333
00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:50,600
Speaker 2: Jets offense. So you have Miami who blitzes at the

334
00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:53,480
Speaker 2: second highest rate in the league thirty eight percent. And

335
00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:57,160
Speaker 2: what that does is that usually forces you know, quarterbacks

336
00:15:57,200 --> 00:16:00,440
Speaker 2: to audible to keep the backing in protection. You know,

337
00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:02,720
Speaker 2: more than most teams. You're also getting a lot of

338
00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:06,440
Speaker 2: man coverage when you're blitzed, and running backs are more

339
00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:08,320
Speaker 2: often than not going to catch the majority of their

340
00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:11,000
Speaker 2: passes against zone coverage you know, just underneath. As a

341
00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:14,320
Speaker 2: checkdown against man coverage, usually you take that shot down

342
00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:17,080
Speaker 2: the field. So that's number one with the matchup. But

343
00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,480
Speaker 2: then you have Joe Flacco starting for the exact reason

344
00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:22,920
Speaker 2: that Miami is a pretty blitz heavy team, So you're

345
00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:25,840
Speaker 2: going with Joe Flacco here. His average up to target

346
00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:30,520
Speaker 2: last year was eleven point three. Now these last few games,

347
00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:32,600
Speaker 2: it's been Mike White. His average just to target is

348
00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:36,240
Speaker 2: six point four. Before that, you had Josh Johnson his

349
00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,320
Speaker 2: was seven point seven and Zach Wilson's nine point one.

350
00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:42,280
Speaker 2: See every quarterback that Carter has played with has had

351
00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:45,880
Speaker 2: between a two and five yard difference in target depth

352
00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:49,200
Speaker 2: compared to Flacco, who again likes to push it down

353
00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:51,680
Speaker 2: the field. So he's not the type of guy that's

354
00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,200
Speaker 2: going to just check down to his back. Never really

355
00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:56,400
Speaker 2: has been that type of player. So I have this

356
00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:59,760
Speaker 2: projected in the low twenties rather than the low thirties.

357
00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:02,400
Speaker 2: I still have Carter getting about three catches, but you

358
00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:05,000
Speaker 2: know running backs average about seven yards seventy eight yards

359
00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:06,960
Speaker 2: for catch on average, So I have this one in

360
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,080
Speaker 2: the low twenties thirty one and a half. I'm going

361
00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:11,440
Speaker 2: under a Carter for receiving yards at thirty one and

362
00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:11,840
Speaker 2: a half.

363
00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:14,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you there, I having three catches for

364
00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:17,920
Speaker 3: twenty one yards, So it sounds like we're in line there,

365
00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:20,439
Speaker 3: And yeah, I think it was mostly Mike White just

366
00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:24,720
Speaker 3: being a checkdown machine really fueled Michael Carter's breakout. I

367
00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:26,480
Speaker 3: still like him in Fantasy as an Arby two, but

368
00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:29,840
Speaker 3: you know, he still splits time pretty evenly with Tdy

369
00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:32,520
Speaker 3: Johnson as a pass catching back. And last week, you know,

370
00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:35,239
Speaker 3: Tevin Coleman returned and I think he ate into his

371
00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:38,880
Speaker 3: pass us just enough to lower this even more. So, Yeah,

372
00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:40,520
Speaker 3: I love the under thirty and a half as well.

373
00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:45,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, car'sman getting He's still getting the rushing workloads, but

374
00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:47,320
Speaker 2: when it comes to being a receiver, it's kind of split,

375
00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:49,320
Speaker 2: a little more split up, a little more all right,

376
00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:50,800
Speaker 2: where we're going with the first receiving prop.

377
00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:53,560
Speaker 3: So I got one more over for you than I

378
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,280
Speaker 3: promise I will have an under, but I'm going over

379
00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:58,760
Speaker 3: thirty two and a half receive yards for Tyler Boyd

380
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:02,119
Speaker 3: against This partly has to do with, you know, me

381
00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 3: being twenty five yards above the market for Joe Burrow's

382
00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:09,400
Speaker 3: passing yard prop. But you know, so it correlates well

383
00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,439
Speaker 3: with that. But you mentioned that, you know Jamar Chase

384
00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:15,080
Speaker 3: has been a little bit less productive against zone defense

385
00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,400
Speaker 3: this year. The Raiders play zone at the six highest rate,

386
00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:19,639
Speaker 3: So I think this could be a good spot for Boyd.

387
00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:21,480
Speaker 3: And he's the kind of guy he has a really

388
00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:24,640
Speaker 3: high floor, so thirty two and a half yards isn't

389
00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:26,679
Speaker 3: much for him to clear. And like I said, I

390
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:28,360
Speaker 3: think this is going to be a shootout. I don't

391
00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:30,399
Speaker 3: think the Bengals are necessarily going to get into a

392
00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,760
Speaker 3: run heavy game script, so I think, you know, Boyd,

393
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 3: I think a safer projection for him would be close

394
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,360
Speaker 3: to be forty three and a half. So I'm over

395
00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:40,840
Speaker 3: ten yards over this market, So I think there's a

396
00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:44,400
Speaker 3: ton of value and love stacking this with Burrow's prop

397
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 3: as well.

398
00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:47,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have this in the low forties as well.

399
00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:50,199
Speaker 2: That seems like a very conservative line for Boyd. I

400
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:53,080
Speaker 2: know he's had a couple of ugly games, but in

401
00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:55,920
Speaker 2: this spot, you got to think that he should get

402
00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,720
Speaker 2: you know, I think his catch his reception prop is

403
00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:00,400
Speaker 2: like three and a half. I think that that's low

404
00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:03,440
Speaker 2: as well. I haven't closer to four catches, so I agree.

405
00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:05,359
Speaker 2: I think you kind of pencil in four catches for

406
00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:07,600
Speaker 2: ten or eleven yards and you get to you know,

407
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 2: forty to forty five, you know yards for a median there.

408
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:15,879
Speaker 2: So I'm over this one as well. For my first

409
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:21,240
Speaker 2: receiver prop, I'm going with free Kuan Smith under thirty

410
00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:23,879
Speaker 2: seven and a half receiving yards And this is another

411
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,240
Speaker 2: one of those matchup based props that he's been a

412
00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:28,679
Speaker 2: little bit over this the last couple of games. But

413
00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 2: you look at the egos every podcast, we seem to

414
00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:33,840
Speaker 2: have mention that they played zone at one of the

415
00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:35,480
Speaker 2: highest rates in the league, and we try to find

416
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:39,119
Speaker 2: a way to get an edge in the market, you know,

417
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,359
Speaker 2: based on that. And look at tray Kwon Smith, only

418
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,400
Speaker 2: twenty nine point four percent of his targets have come

419
00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 2: and at zone coverage this year. And to put that

420
00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:53,360
Speaker 2: into perspective, most defenses are playing zone coverage at about

421
00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,439
Speaker 2: a two thirds clip like you're playing man about a

422
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:59,320
Speaker 2: third of the time. So the average wide receiver should

423
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:04,159
Speaker 2: still be at you know, fifty plus percent range against

424
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:07,719
Speaker 2: zone coverage, you know, on average, So go as low

425
00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:10,880
Speaker 2: as thirty percent, you're entering like Brian Edwards territory here,

426
00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:15,879
Speaker 2: and we've seen Edwards completely disappear against teams that go

427
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:19,600
Speaker 2: zone heavy and then like reappear again against teams that

428
00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 2: go man heavy. So I think you could see that

429
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,120
Speaker 2: this week with tray Kuan Smith. He's not on the

430
00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 2: you know, the New Orleans turf, he's outdoors in Philly again.

431
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:31,920
Speaker 2: That's the second, the second straight road game. I believe

432
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,880
Speaker 2: it is for the Saints. So I think you'll see

433
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,800
Speaker 2: kind of a disappearing act here. Nothing against tray Kwan,

434
00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:40,720
Speaker 2: but you know, you can't really trust Saints receivers. I

435
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 2: mean you just kind of kind of take it. And

436
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 2: we both like Deontay Harris here, so with whose wine

437
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:48,480
Speaker 2: is around the same. So if I had to pick,

438
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,359
Speaker 2: it's unlikely that two Saints receivers are clearing thirty eight

439
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 2: yards And it's crazy as that sounds to say, and

440
00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:58,160
Speaker 2: about to pick one it the Deontay Harris or or Cowaway.

441
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:00,880
Speaker 2: Even so going Trayquon under already seven and a half.

442
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,160
Speaker 2: I have this in the in the low thirties.

443
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 1: Yeah. I really love this prop.

444
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 3: And I was probably a week early on it because

445
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,119
Speaker 3: I had the same bet last week and he finished

446
00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 3: with forty four. Yeah, and yeah, like you said, this

447
00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 3: is a bad matchup for him. I think that the

448
00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:18,360
Speaker 3: three guys that are going to benefit the most from

449
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:22,520
Speaker 3: the eagle zone coverage would be Alvin Kamaraphi Plays, Adam Troutman,

450
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,399
Speaker 3: and Deante Harris. So yeah, I think tray Que Smith

451
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,520
Speaker 3: has a He's much more likely to hit his floor

452
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 3: this week, and that's what I thought was gonna happen

453
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 3: last week. So yeah, I love this prop. I'm projecting

454
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 3: it similar to you lower thirties as well.

455
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we might even get this is when you

456
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 2: might want to wait until closer to kickof, because you

457
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 2: might even get a better number of camaras out you know,

458
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,359
Speaker 2: I think the books might even raise it up a

459
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 2: couple of yards, even though I don't think it's warranted. Again,

460
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,680
Speaker 2: he just hasn't been there against this type of scheme.

461
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:56,679
Speaker 3: For are you or are you projecting Trevor Simeon for

462
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 3: closer like ninety five percent of dropbacks?

463
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,720
Speaker 2: Now, yeah, he's in that. He's still he's still not

464
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 2: as high as other quarterbacks, Like I think I still

465
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:08,120
Speaker 2: have Taysom for maybe two two to three pass attempts.

466
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's been slowly creeping up, even though I

467
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 2: still don't think it's that secure. Like, you know, the

468
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 2: thing is Taysom is it looks like you might not

469
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 2: play this that that kind of change obvious, all.

470
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, yeah, but just I mean, going back to

471
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 3: last week, you and I were probably both yeah, projecting

472
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 3: for like sixty five.

473
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 1: But he's played well enough.

474
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 3: And yeah, it tastes Mills banged up that it's it's

475
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 3: raised my passing projections overall.

476
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:34,479
Speaker 1: But they're not going to Trey con Smith is what

477
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:35,119
Speaker 1: I'm getting up.

478
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 2: All Right, We're going for our final receiving prop four

479
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 2: week eleven.

480
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 3: So I'm going with Michael Pittman under sixty one and

481
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 3: a half receiving yards. This is just a brutal matchup.

482
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 3: In general, the Bills defense has been shutting out of

483
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:54,240
Speaker 3: receivers all season. They've only allowed four different receivers to

484
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 3: clear sixty five yards this year, So this is a

485
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 3: This is a tough matchup for Pittman and his set.

486
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,680
Speaker 3: Seventy six per seventy six percent catch rate is due

487
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 3: for regression because based on this a dot of a

488
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 3: round eleven and a half yards, you typically expect the

489
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 3: receiver to catch a ball, you know, sixty three zero

490
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 3: point five percent of the time. Now, granted, I think

491
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,920
Speaker 3: Pittman is way above average at this point, but you know,

492
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 3: I'm expecting some aggression for his catch rate and it

493
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,359
Speaker 3: could happen this week. So either way, I'm projecting them

494
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 3: culture to the mid fifties. I just think it's a

495
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:27,879
Speaker 3: tough spot for this Colts offense in general and especially Pittman.

496
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:32,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, I haven't been in a low fifties. My my

497
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:35,400
Speaker 2: projections for Carson Wentz go way down against this Bill's defense.

498
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:37,680
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, even in games where regardless of

499
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 2: what the Bill's offense is doing that that defense has

500
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,400
Speaker 2: been pretty stout pretty much all year. They can man

501
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 2: up on Pittman, they can use White, I mean, there's

502
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:48,119
Speaker 2: a lot of different things that they can do. So

503
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 2: you know, Pittman is like a he's like kind of

504
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:52,400
Speaker 2: a mid tier wide receiver three this week, and he's

505
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,240
Speaker 2: been in that, you know, high end wide receiver two

506
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 2: range most of the year. But I have him is

507
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,919
Speaker 2: number thirty two in terms of wide receivers for week eleven,

508
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm down on him as well. I'll close

509
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:07,680
Speaker 2: it out with your specialty take a stud a week

510
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 2: pass catcher and taken under. I'm going Darren Waller under

511
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 2: sixty four and a half receiving yards just to play

512
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 2: on the number here. He's been under this in five

513
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 2: out of eight games. Cincinnati is allowing just forty four

514
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:24,639
Speaker 2: point eight schedule adjusted receiving yards per game to the

515
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 2: tight end position. That is tenth lowest. So you know,

516
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,680
Speaker 2: we haven't seen these monster games from Waller this year.

517
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:35,919
Speaker 2: That really hasn't changed to too much of an extent, whether

518
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:37,879
Speaker 2: you know Ruggs has been in the lineup or not.

519
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 2: I just think defenses are really kind of they're gearing

520
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,160
Speaker 2: up to Stott Waller and you're still getting the catches here.

521
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 2: You know, you're still getting you know, five six catches,

522
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 2: but just not getting those big plays down the field

523
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,399
Speaker 2: for wall of those tend to be covered up. So

524
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 2: sixty four and a half is a big number for

525
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:58,679
Speaker 2: him given what we've seen out of him for this season.

526
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. I like this one as well.

527
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 3: He's only gone over this number three times, I believe,

528
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 3: and one of them was sixty five yards, so barely

529
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 3: went over. Yeah, I'm about eight yards below the market

530
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 3: on this one. And yeah, it's like a guy like

531
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 3: Deshaun Jackson, We're to play a bit more here, catch

532
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 3: a deep ball and continue running the correct direction. Those

533
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 3: kind of things will There's yards, so a lot going

534
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 3: against him here, and yeah, I think this matchup is

535
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 3: going to be a shootout. But he definitely doesn't have

536
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 3: an easy matchup, so I think it's going to be

537
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:30,400
Speaker 3: another Hunter Renfro game.

538
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 1: Possibly Josh Jacobs.

539
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think Waller's shown that he has a

540
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 3: low enough floor this year to kind of fade him

541
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 3: in spots like this.

542
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is this could be a shootout,

543
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:43,919
Speaker 2: And it's interesting because even if we do get a shootout,

544
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 2: it might not all come with receiving yards. It might

545
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 2: be a lot of penalties. Jerome Boger is going to

546
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 2: be the ref of this game. In his career, the

547
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 2: over is one eighteen eighty one and one fifty nine percent.

548
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:57,919
Speaker 2: According to our Action Labs data, he's one of the

549
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:01,919
Speaker 2: most profitable over referee, So I could see some penalties

550
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:05,160
Speaker 2: which could help you know, you know, while theer stay

551
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:05,879
Speaker 2: on this number.

552
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:06,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, good point.

553
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,160
Speaker 2: Next up here on the Fantasy Flex is a segment

554
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 2: we call Elite Entries. Sean and I dive into the

555
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 2: prize pick DAP and compare our player projections to the

556
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 2: prop to build some entry we'll do do each for

557
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 2: week eleven. Sean, what's your first prize pick a week

558
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 2: entry best bet for Week number oneen, So.

559
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 3: I have a nice little Bengals stack, so I'm breaking

560
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 3: out the Bengals hat here. But the first leg of

561
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 3: this Bengal sack is Joe Burrow to go over two

562
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,680
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty five and a half passing yards against

563
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:40,680
Speaker 3: the Raiders this week. He's gotten over this number seven

564
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 3: of nine games this season.

565
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:43,399
Speaker 1: In one of those games that.

566
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 3: He went under, he didn't have t Higgins, so I

567
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:48,880
Speaker 3: love his four in this matchup.

568
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:49,880
Speaker 1: It should be a shootout.

569
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 3: The Raiders rank twenty second in d A against the past.

570
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:57,880
Speaker 3: I'm projecting this for twenty five yards over this. I'm

571
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 3: projecting him at two eighty So lovely over here.

572
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 2: For my first prize pick lead entry best bet for

573
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 2: Week number eleven, going with justin few over thirty and

574
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,199
Speaker 2: a half rushing yards. He's been over to each of

575
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 2: the past four games, rambled at least five times in

576
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 2: each of the past four games. After barely scrambling over

577
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 2: the first bot, I think that is going to make

578
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,399
Speaker 2: it different. Thin and being able to get over this number.

579
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 2: I have this I hear about forty don where are

580
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 2: you going for your second prize pick before Eleny?

581
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,639
Speaker 3: So I'm going with Tyler Boyd over thirty two and

582
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 3: a half receiving yards. You know, part of this is

583
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 3: due to me projecting Joe Burrow for twenty five more

584
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 3: yards than the market, but also you know, this has

585
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 3: to do with Jamar Chase. He tends to be a

586
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 3: little bit less productive against zone coverage.

587
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 1: The Raiders, you know, run zone at.

588
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 3: The sixth highest rate, so I think could open the

589
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 3: door for Boyd to have a big game. And either way,

590
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 3: you know, thirty two and a half yards is not

591
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 3: a high bar for end mcclar and he's typically you know,

592
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,199
Speaker 3: high four pass catcher. Roo can bank on five to

593
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 3: seven targets for him pretty much to every game. So well,

594
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:11,879
Speaker 3: he's probably the forgotten guy in this. Like dynamic trio receivers,

595
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 3: he still has one of the higher floors as a

596
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 3: number three receiver, and I'm projecting him closer to forty

597
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:19,120
Speaker 3: three and a half, So I think this probably he's

598
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:20,199
Speaker 3: got ten yards two up.

599
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're getting higher board a number three receiver at

600
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 2: thirty two and a half receiving yards, So I got

601
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 2: to go. Michael Carter are running back under thirty one

602
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:33,199
Speaker 2: and a half receiving yards Against the Dolphins. You've got

603
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 2: Joe Flacco starting. His average depth of target is five

604
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 2: yards higher than Mike White. It's about three and a

605
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 2: half yards higher than Josh Johnson. It's a couple of

606
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 2: yards higher than Zach Wilson. So he does not like

607
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 2: to check it down Miami, elf. The blitz is at

608
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 2: the second highest rate in the league, which gives your

609
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 2: man coverage down the field and forces the running back

610
00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 2: to stay in the four a lift pick up. So

611
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 2: I think this number is little bit too high here.

612
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 2: I have this from the low twenties. Part has been

613
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 2: under this again in five out of nine. That's going

614
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 2: to wrap it up for our prize pick a Weit

615
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 2: entry segment for Week eleven to recap drawn going with

616
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow over two hundred and fifty five and a

617
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 2: half passing yards and Tyler Voyd over thirty two and

618
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 2: a half leaving yards. I'm going justin Fields over thirty

619
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 2: and a half rushing yards and Michael hard under thirty

620
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 2: one and a half receiving yards. As a reminder, prize

621
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 2: picks market to move, so you want to get on

622
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 2: it quickly in order to lock in the best numbers.

623
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 2: If you have not created a Prize Pick account yet,

624
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 2: check out the link in our episode description and they

625
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 2: will mask your first deposit up to one hundred dollars

626
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 2: or give us a Prize Picks dot com use the

627
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 2: promo code action ten as acc iowan one zero that

628
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 2: is going to do it for our week eleven Props podcast.

629
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 2: You can find Sean on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker,

630
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,959
Speaker 2: and you can find me on Twitter at Chris Raybon.

631
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 2: You can find us at those same handles in the

632
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 2: free award winning Action Network app, where you can follow

633
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 2: all of our bets, including our player prop bets and

634
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 2: crack yours. You can find our fantasy football content, projections

635
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 2: and rankings at actionnetwork dot com and our DFS content,

636
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 2: foods and models at fantasyabs dot com. Until next time,

637
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 2: get this money,