WEBVTT - UN Draws Line Linking Khashoggi Murder To Bezos Hack 0:00:02.640 --> 0:00:05.320 Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel podcast. I'm Paul swing you, 0:00:05.360 --> 0:00:07.680 along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits. Each day 0:00:07.720 --> 0:00:10.240 we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 0:00:10.280 --> 0:00:12.520 you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or 0:00:12.560 --> 0:00:15.480 the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple 0:00:15.520 --> 0:00:17.960 podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:20.799 at Bloomberg dot com. Paul, I'm trying to understand the 0:00:20.840 --> 0:00:24.520 significance of this story that came out earlier today. The 0:00:24.600 --> 0:00:27.680 United Nations experts now weighing in saying that Saudi Crown 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.280 Prince Mohammed bin Salman was possibly involved in hacking the 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:34.760 cell phone of Amazon dot Com CEO Jeff Bezos. And 0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:38.680 this was revealed after an Amazon investigation. This has to 0:00:38.680 --> 0:00:42.520 do with a What's App account that was infiltrated according 0:00:42.680 --> 0:00:46.479 to investigators back in ten Greg Farrell here to give 0:00:46.520 --> 0:00:49.159 us a little bit more clarity. He's an investigative reporter 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:52.080 for the Legal enforcement team here at Bloomberg News. Greg, 0:00:52.080 --> 0:00:54.280 can you just sort of set the stage of what 0:00:54.640 --> 0:00:59.040 actually is alleged to have happened here well from what 0:00:59.080 --> 0:01:04.880 we know, um, after Jeff Bezos you know, photos from 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:08.920 his personal life that contributed to or you know allow 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:15.480 you know a year ago came out. Um, they his 0:01:15.560 --> 0:01:18.400 team started going through like with a fine tooth comb, 0:01:18.800 --> 0:01:22.200 everything is like, clearly he had been hacked. Clearly stuff 0:01:22.240 --> 0:01:24.800 had been stolen from him, digital images, etcetera, from his 0:01:24.840 --> 0:01:28.360 personal devices. So that started the process. In addition to that, 0:01:28.480 --> 0:01:30.880 federal prosecutors in New York started looking to see if 0:01:30.880 --> 0:01:35.240 there was any involvement by the National Enquirer UM with 0:01:35.520 --> 0:01:39.640 you know, uh, basically some you know, unlawful activity regarding 0:01:39.680 --> 0:01:43.720 this part of the investigation. UM went through you know, 0:01:43.840 --> 0:01:47.560 chapter in verse every interaction with what Pisos had and 0:01:47.600 --> 0:01:50.800 then um, you know, so there's there's a criminal investigation 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:54.680 in Manhattan. Here. Separately, at the United Nations, there are 0:01:54.720 --> 0:01:58.040 a group of people dedicated to you know, justice for 0:01:58.200 --> 0:02:01.600 extra judicial killings who been very focused on the murder 0:02:01.640 --> 0:02:06.160 of Jamal Kashagi in October. They got involved with this 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:08.840 as well, and they're the ones who put out a 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:11.280 report today. And this is what the news reporting starting 0:02:11.320 --> 0:02:14.640 late last night indicated is that their findings based on 0:02:14.760 --> 0:02:19.480 the digital the forensic digital analysis of Bezos's phone indicated 0:02:19.760 --> 0:02:23.040 lots of evidence that at the time in May of 0:02:24.520 --> 0:02:29.280 after a benign what's app you know, transaction or what's 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:33.640 app message from the Prince to Bezos, then suddenly afterwards 0:02:33.680 --> 0:02:36.800 there was this malignant, you know, coded file that got 0:02:36.800 --> 0:02:40.520 in something called Pegasus, which I don't understand god was, 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:44.320 was placed in Bezos's phone and started exfiltrating massive amounts 0:02:44.320 --> 0:02:47.840 of data, far far larger than the normal amounts of 0:02:47.919 --> 0:02:50.160 data that would normally come in and out of a phone. 0:02:50.720 --> 0:02:53.480 So Greg is there do we have any sense of 0:02:53.639 --> 0:02:56.400 what Jeff Bezos would like to see happen. I mean, 0:02:56.400 --> 0:02:58.840 it looks like obviously his security was breached, and it 0:02:58.919 --> 0:03:01.760 was obviously had implication for him his personal life. But 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:05.040 as he stated, what he wants to happen if in 0:03:05.080 --> 0:03:07.960 fact the Crown Prince is guilty of this or did 0:03:08.000 --> 0:03:11.320 do this, No, I think right now he's playing this 0:03:11.400 --> 0:03:14.119 carefully because there is a criminal investigation in New York 0:03:14.160 --> 0:03:17.440 into some of the conducts surrounding that. It's proceeded very slowly. 0:03:17.720 --> 0:03:19.800 But I think he's smart enough and he's getting the 0:03:19.840 --> 0:03:21.840 right advice not to get in front of it and 0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:23.880 decide what he wants to do, but to let the 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:27.520 you know, the most important thing the criminal investigation proceed 0:03:28.040 --> 0:03:33.200 is the u N investigation somehow implying a connection between 0:03:33.240 --> 0:03:38.280 the killing of Tamaka Shogi and the Jeff Bezos hack 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:41.840 or the leak of his personal information. Is that part 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:43.480 of it or it just was that. Yeah, they're making 0:03:43.480 --> 0:03:45.720 their drawing that line. They're not there's no proof that 0:03:45.760 --> 0:03:48.320 this led to that. But you know that's what these 0:03:48.320 --> 0:03:50.560 people that the u WHEN are investigating. They're they're trying 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:52.760 to get to the bottom of how and why in 0:03:52.800 --> 0:03:55.520 more details and hold those responsible for it the killing 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:59.200 of kog So you know, it's this is another element 0:03:59.520 --> 0:04:03.280 to that whole storyline that the Saudi government has started 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:05.680 denying completely and then denied in part and then found 0:04:05.720 --> 0:04:08.800 some people to find guilty um in a trial of 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:11.760 sorts a closed trial in Saudi Arabia earlier this year. 0:04:11.880 --> 0:04:14.040 And the u N people are staying on this and 0:04:14.120 --> 0:04:18.160 what's Jeff Bezos connection to the Tamaka Shogi case. Just 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:20.840 that Kau Shogi worked for the Washington Post, and so 0:04:21.000 --> 0:04:23.960 the Washington Post, most of the major newspapers and news 0:04:24.000 --> 0:04:27.159 media uh in this country have been very supportive of 0:04:27.160 --> 0:04:28.760 efforts to get to the bottom of this, but no 0:04:28.880 --> 0:04:31.200 one more than the Washington Post because he was one 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:35.760 of them, greg Asor do we know whether the investigators 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:37.560 are looking more broadly or are they just looking at 0:04:37.600 --> 0:04:40.560 Jeff Bezos or their other prominent people that could be 0:04:40.640 --> 0:04:44.960 the targets of mbs IS or the Saudi government's hacking 0:04:45.000 --> 0:04:47.880 of phones. So two things they're one, we don't know 0:04:47.920 --> 0:04:51.160 what the prosecutors in Manhattan are doing. That seems pretty 0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:53.640 clear it's focused on the hack and the National Choir 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:55.760 and whether or not the inquirer was culpable at all, 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:58.880 and there's no evidence to suggest that there was. Separately, though, 0:04:58.920 --> 0:05:01.200 that's a much bigger question. And you've hit a very 0:05:01.320 --> 0:05:04.400 important point now that we know with a high degree 0:05:04.400 --> 0:05:08.159 of confidence, but not absolute certainty, that something some part, 0:05:08.200 --> 0:05:10.200 even if it wasn't the Crown Prince himself, but somebody 0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:13.440 in Saudi Arabia was interested in hacking into a prominent, 0:05:13.680 --> 0:05:17.359 wealthy Americans phone. This opens up the question, well, what 0:05:17.480 --> 0:05:21.919 other prominent American officials or figures with close ties to 0:05:21.920 --> 0:05:26.480 the government, um either the Trump administration or Congress, or 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:29.240 in the business community who did a lot of dealings 0:05:29.360 --> 0:05:31.600 and had a you know, what they thought was a 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:34.359 personal relationship or what's app relationship with the Crown Prince 0:05:34.760 --> 0:05:39.160 or other representatives of the Saudi ruler family. Has anybody 0:05:39.200 --> 0:05:41.120 else been hacked and we just don't know yet. So 0:05:41.400 --> 0:05:44.800 that's that's the bigger issue here, is that, uh, you know, 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:47.360 as the Saudi government been doing this to a wide 0:05:47.440 --> 0:05:50.320 variety of people and if so, whom right, very interesting, 0:05:50.320 --> 0:05:53.240 fascinating story that I think is just a development. Here Grege, 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:56.560 investigative reporter for the Legal enforcement team at Bloomberg News, 0:05:56.600 --> 0:05:58.560 joining us here in our Bloomberg in active broker studio 0:05:58.560 --> 0:06:01.800 with that fascinating story of Jeff Bezos, the Washington Post, 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:05.880 the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, what's app hacking? Uh, 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:08.960 so interesting story. So I think this is probably LEASA 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:11.279 something that's gonna be developing over time. Oh, I don't 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:12.800 think this is the last that were part of this. 0:06:12.960 --> 0:06:15.800 If the UN panel is coming back with the same 0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:29.120 conclusion as Jeff Bezos is uh. Private investigators markets are 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:31.960 rallying slightly today on news that China is ramping up 0:06:31.960 --> 0:06:35.920 its efforts to contain the Corona virus that's killed at 0:06:36.000 --> 0:06:38.880 least seventeen people and affect that hundreds. As the outbreak 0:06:38.920 --> 0:06:41.120 has spread beyond age of the question is what does 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:44.359 it mean for global economics. We welcome Tom or Like 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:47.200 he's a chief economist for Bloomberg Economics, joining us from 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:50.359 the Bloomberg nine studio in Washington, d C. Tom, you 0:06:50.920 --> 0:06:52.760 lived a long time in China. I wonder if you 0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:55.800 could give us a sense for kind of how this 0:06:56.000 --> 0:07:00.880 coronavirus compares to the stars UH virus from about seventeen 0:07:01.000 --> 0:07:04.279 years ago, because that's certainly had some rippling effects before 0:07:04.279 --> 0:07:07.599 the economy. So that's right, Paul. So if we go 0:07:07.680 --> 0:07:12.520 back to two thousand and three, in that Stars outbreak, UM, 0:07:12.560 --> 0:07:16.200 I think one of the critical factors was the slow 0:07:16.280 --> 0:07:20.160 pace of the government response. UM. There was a failure 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:24.160 to acknowledge the extent of the outbreak. UM, there was 0:07:25.000 --> 0:07:30.200 an inability to UM move policies quickly to contain it. 0:07:30.840 --> 0:07:34.400 And what that meant was that actually the economic impact, 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:39.000 whilst brief, was pretty severe. We saw GDP growth for 0:07:39.240 --> 0:07:43.080 two percentage points from the first quarter of two thousand 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:45.640 and thirty two thousand and three to the second quarter 0:07:46.080 --> 0:07:50.040 of two thousand and three. The hope as we are here, 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:52.400 we are in twenty twenty is that the kind of 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:56.400 the bitter lesson which China learned back in two thousand 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:59.400 and three is going to enable them to be more 0:07:59.480 --> 0:08:03.640 transpar aren't quicker, more effective as they respond to this 0:08:03.680 --> 0:08:07.760 emerging threat from the coronavirus. How do you game out 0:08:07.520 --> 0:08:11.880 of the potential economic impact of our pandemic? I mean, 0:08:12.360 --> 0:08:16.560 it's basically not possible to do lisa UM. So here 0:08:16.600 --> 0:08:20.320 we are in the very early stages of this disease, 0:08:21.280 --> 0:08:24.840 and it's not clear how it's going to develop um 0:08:25.160 --> 0:08:27.960 and so the best we can do is think about 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:31.480 the moving parts and try and think about some scenarios. 0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:35.520 An important factor in our view is the way the 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:39.880 Chinese economy has evolved over the last sixteen seventeen years. 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:43.960 Back in two thousand and three, the Stars outbreak had 0:08:44.000 --> 0:08:48.400 the biggest impact on the services sector. It hit tourism, 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:51.559 it hits shopping, it hit people going to the restaurant, 0:08:51.559 --> 0:08:54.400 going to the cinema and such like. But back in 0:08:54.480 --> 0:08:57.960 two thousand and three, the services share of China's economy 0:08:58.200 --> 0:09:02.439 was really quite small. Here we are in and one 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:05.760 of the big success stories for China in the last 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:09.720 two decades has been this economic transition they've managed to 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:13.000 move away from industry. The services sector is named much 0:09:13.000 --> 0:09:16.360 more important. More people eating at restaurants, more people going 0:09:16.679 --> 0:09:19.480 to visit their friends and relatives, more people going to 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:22.560 the cinema. But guess what that means that if this 0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:28.080 coronavirus does expand does spread um, then potentially the economic 0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:31.400 impact is going to be significantly larger. And interestingly, who 0:09:31.760 --> 0:09:35.080 who Dision, the editor of the Global Times, who's often 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:38.560 thought of as sort of a mouthpiece for the for Beijing, 0:09:39.160 --> 0:09:41.600 came out and acknowledged that there would be an economic 0:09:41.679 --> 0:09:43.880 hit that people would be traveling lest buying a fewer 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:47.480 items amid this holiday. Are you expecting perhaps a bigger 0:09:47.480 --> 0:09:52.120 economic impact than might otherwise be seen, just because it 0:09:52.600 --> 0:09:55.160 just is going to have that kind of dampening effect, 0:09:55.200 --> 0:09:58.199 even though necessary it is contained. Yeah. I think you 0:09:58.280 --> 0:10:01.000 raise an important point, Lisa, and that is that the 0:10:01.160 --> 0:10:06.440 timing of this for China couldn't really be worse. We're 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:10.640 about to hit Chinese New Year, and at Chinese New Year, 0:10:10.679 --> 0:10:15.240 what happens is literally hundreds of millions of people UM 0:10:16.000 --> 0:10:19.960 go home. Many Chinese people are migrants. They work in 0:10:20.360 --> 0:10:22.400 cities which are different from the cities they were born 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:25.040 in and Chinese New Year is the one point of 0:10:25.080 --> 0:10:28.720 the year where everyone puts down what they're doing, leaves 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:31.960 the factory, leaves the office, gets on the train, gets 0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:34.560 on a bus, gets on an airplane, and goes to 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:37.680 enjoy the Chinese New Year celebration with their family in 0:10:37.720 --> 0:10:40.200 the same way that people do it Thanksgiving or Christmas 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:42.280 here in here, in the US and in the UK. 0:10:42.880 --> 0:10:46.880 Um So the concern could be that even if this 0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:50.400 virus is contained, even if it doesn't spread, just the 0:10:50.520 --> 0:10:53.320 mere timing of it is going to have a larger 0:10:53.440 --> 0:10:58.560 impact on economic activity because people cancel those plans. Tom 0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:00.280 Moore like, thank you so much for being with us, 0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:03.240 Tom More like chief economists for Bloomberg Economics, joining us 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:08.440 from our Washington d C studios. Really interestingly, coronavirus has 0:11:08.559 --> 0:11:11.720 been at least it appears to be somewhat more contained. 0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:14.920 There seems to be more confidence that it won't necessarily 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:18.560 spread rampantly, and that the Chinese government is being more 0:11:18.600 --> 0:11:21.880 transparent this time around than the last time seventeen years ago, 0:11:21.920 --> 0:11:24.920 in the stars epidemic was spreading much more than they 0:11:24.960 --> 0:11:27.760 had previous expected. But really interesting what Tom said, which 0:11:27.800 --> 0:11:31.440 is it hits services when there is a concern about 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:35.040 an illness, and services account for a much bigger proportion 0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:38.720 of China's economy now, so it could potentially have a 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:41.440 significant economic hit even if it is contained. Yeah, and 0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:43.400 in interesting Tom mentioned the timing of it coming around 0:11:43.440 --> 0:11:46.199 the Chinese New Year, and how there's such a movement 0:11:46.200 --> 0:11:49.080 of people within the country and how that could actually 0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:52.560 unfortunately facilitate the spread of the disease. So that's something 0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:56.120 I'm sure the Chinese officials are watching closely. And again, 0:11:56.320 --> 0:11:58.600 as you mentioned, there's actually been some calls from government 0:11:58.679 --> 0:12:01.840 by saying don't go home, don't travel, um, you know, 0:12:01.880 --> 0:12:04.120 And I think they're all just that's all predicated upon 0:12:04.160 --> 0:12:20.120 trying to limit the outbreak here. It's some housing data 0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:23.200 come out today. US existing home sales rise to their 0:12:23.240 --> 0:12:27.880 best pace since early two thousand eighteen, indicating once again 0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:31.280 that the consumer continues to power the U s economy along. 0:12:31.559 --> 0:12:34.640 We are very happy to have our next guest, Doug Duncan, 0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:37.160 good friend of the show, Senior vice president chief economists 0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:39.719 for Fannie May usually based in Washington, d C. But 0:12:39.760 --> 0:12:42.560 we dragged him up here to New York City to 0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:45.600 the Bloomberg Interactor Broker Studio. So, Doug, and it seems 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:47.800 like every time we chat with you, we have more 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:52.520 I'm gonna say great, but certainly solid housing data. What 0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:54.240 do you make of the existing homesale data that came 0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:57.760 out today that's consistent with the forecast we think is 0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:01.319 going to be a good year. The consumers well positioned. 0:13:01.360 --> 0:13:07.200 You've seen lower income groups see rising income growth relative 0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:09.240 to middle and upper income groups, and that's where the 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:12.480 first time home buyers are in the millennial group, which 0:13:12.480 --> 0:13:16.200 are driving the demand for homes. They won't peak in 0:13:16.320 --> 0:13:19.160 terms of their household formation for another six years, So 0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:21.440 depending on what the economy does under that, we still 0:13:21.480 --> 0:13:23.160 have a good run to go in housing. And we're 0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:26.839 still building two d and fifty thousand units less than 0:13:26.920 --> 0:13:30.600 demographics would suggest annually. Well, there's been a tension in 0:13:30.640 --> 0:13:33.560 the housing market that there are growing number of people 0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:36.720 who want starter homes and those starter homes are getting 0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:41.760 more and more expensive. How is that conundrum getting resolved 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:44.640 in order to keep these numbers going forward. Yeah, it's 0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:46.880 kind of a fight between the boomers and the millennials, 0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:49.640 if you will not that I'm trying to foment social 0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:53.000 discards please go ahead. But the boomers are doing what 0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:54.800 they said they're going to do. They're aging in place, 0:13:55.160 --> 0:13:58.360 and that's usually where the turnovercomes. That makes existing homes 0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:00.920 available to the first time buyer, and it's the move 0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:03.800 up buyer who buys what the builders building. So this 0:14:03.880 --> 0:14:07.920 is a challenge for builders to make money building starter homes. 0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:12.480 That's not their traditional role. They're making progress our expectation 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:15.520 as you see probably about a five percent growth this 0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:19.360 year in new home sales, which the square footage they're 0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:21.960 building has been falling for about three years, so they're 0:14:22.000 --> 0:14:25.760 trying to move toward that entry level buyer. But still 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:29.520 there's got to be turnover among the boomers in order 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:33.440 to really come back to normal relationships in the housing turnover? 0:14:33.760 --> 0:14:36.520 What is that? What does that mean? I mean, really 0:14:36.880 --> 0:14:40.680 digget there exactly. Well, it means when the kids have 0:14:40.720 --> 0:14:43.200 moved out. While you may want to keep a bedroom 0:14:43.280 --> 0:14:44.920 or two in case they come home and bring the 0:14:44.960 --> 0:14:48.160 grand kids, you probably don't need five bedrooms. Interesting, so 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:51.400 are the regions of the country that are is it 0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:55.880 fairly consistent across the country we're seeing decent household formation 0:14:55.920 --> 0:14:58.720 in home sales, or the regions that are maybe worrying 0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:01.280 you to some degree. Well, we've been studying the issue 0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:05.440 of mobility, asking the question if housing is too expensive 0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:08.160 for entry level workers to be able to afford a 0:15:08.160 --> 0:15:11.800 house near where they work, will businesses start moving their 0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:14.880 location to our housing is more affordable. And there is 0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:19.080 significant anecdotal evidence of that, and also starting to be 0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:22.880 some valid evidence of that in the data that businesses 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:26.520 are relocating. Although in fairness, I have spoken anecdotally to 0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:29.600 some executives at companies that have tried to move away 0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:33.520 from New York to other places, in particular some southern cities, 0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:36.880 and have struggled to find the talent. Uh, And I'm wondering, 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:41.680 you know, does this sort of foretell further stability and 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:45.200 say a New York City market or a San Francisco market, 0:15:45.280 --> 0:15:47.600 despite all of the threats that everyone's going to move 0:15:47.640 --> 0:15:50.080 away because it's just too expensive. Yeah, I think there's 0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:55.600 in some sense, instead of incremental additions to those already 0:15:55.640 --> 0:16:01.040 expensive and heavily populated metros, it's the incremental are going elsewhere. 0:16:01.320 --> 0:16:03.800 One story, for example, is if you look at where 0:16:03.800 --> 0:16:07.200 Boise was ten years ago compared to where Boise is today, 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:11.520 that's absolutely all outflow from higher cost areas, and Boise's 0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:15.240 hu's eight or and fifty thousand people in that metro. Now, uh, 0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:18.600 that's a poster child for that kind of migration. It's 0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:22.120 not gonna happen everywhere. Core businesses will still remain in 0:16:22.160 --> 0:16:25.200 New York City, but the additional if you can open 0:16:25.240 --> 0:16:28.840 another office somewhere else in that business, that's what you're 0:16:28.840 --> 0:16:31.120 seeing some of the West Coast tech companies. They're moving 0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:34.840 a part of their business to Utah, Salt Lake or Torno, 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:38.600 or to Phoenix or someplace where housing is more affordable. Doug, 0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:41.960 what's your overall economic outlook for in that camp. It's 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:46.040 kind of kind of growth. We think the sustainable non 0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:48.560 inflationary growth rate for the economy is between two and 0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:50.160 two and a quarter, and we'll be in that range 0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:52.760 this year, a little bit slowden last year. Boeing will 0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:56.720 have something to do with that. The the uh uh 0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:59.320 that that will be actually a number that will slow 0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:03.160 the headline numbers a little bit. How's the housing market 0:17:03.200 --> 0:17:06.280 in Fargomorehead, North Dakota. It's very well. It's a very 0:17:06.320 --> 0:17:08.480 affordable place, and if you have a child sent to 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:12.879 a university, there's an excellent, Ya, North Dakota State University. 0:17:12.920 --> 0:17:16.680 It's affordable and good quality and you're totally objective, right, 0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:23.720 I am totally absolutely as um and I say this 0:17:23.840 --> 0:17:26.159 actually I am going to be heading to North Dakota 0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:32.120 State University in April. April, not January. Yeah, although it's 0:17:32.119 --> 0:17:38.240 still joy pretty. Although it's still going to bed. Yeah, 0:17:38.280 --> 0:17:42.000 they're about two weeks in between winter and uh in summer, 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:45.000 in which case it's nice. No, it's it's gonna be fun. 0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:47.679 I actually started my career at Fargo Noice Dakota, so 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:51.399 I'm going to as a reporter anyway. Thank you so 0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:53.960 much for being with us. Don Duncan, always wonderful having 0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:57.520 you here. Don Duncan, chief economist at Fanny May joining 0:17:57.600 --> 0:18:00.399 us with this better than expected data it again on 0:18:00.440 --> 0:18:13.960 the US housing market. The impeachment trial continues in Washington, 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:16.320 d C. In the Senate, and there is a big 0:18:16.440 --> 0:18:20.560 question about four U. S. Senators Republicans who hold the 0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:24.679 key to whether or not the trial will involve witnesses 0:18:24.800 --> 0:18:27.280 or not. Twitting us now to talk about the political 0:18:27.320 --> 0:18:30.120 consequences of the impeachment proceedings is when do you shill 0:18:30.119 --> 0:18:32.560 our professor of political science and public Policy at Brown 0:18:32.680 --> 0:18:36.760 University joining us from Providence, Rhode Island. Professor Schiller, thank 0:18:36.800 --> 0:18:38.520 you so much for being with us. I want to 0:18:38.560 --> 0:18:42.359 start with the significance of this decision on behalf of 0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:45.359 that handful of senators who really are the key to 0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:48.199 whether or not there will be witnesses in this in 0:18:48.240 --> 0:18:51.440 this trial. Yeah, I mean, I think it's really crucial 0:18:51.440 --> 0:18:53.920 to understand the politics of it. So Miss McConnell wants 0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:57.000 to keep control of the United States Senate after election. 0:18:57.280 --> 0:19:00.640 He's got vulnerable senators, he's got vulnerable centers in Maine, Um, 0:19:01.200 --> 0:19:06.679 North Carolina, Arizona, and Colorado, among others. And he's just 0:19:06.720 --> 0:19:09.520 doing the math. And Susan Collins in particular is viewed 0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:12.919 to be quite vulnerable on this issue. And the question 0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:15.080 is if this is going to take it seriously? This 0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:18.160 is impeachment. Did the president of uses power? We sort 0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:20.320 of know they're not going to vote to convict. We've 0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:22.639 got to get that idea. That's parts and loyalty, But 0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:25.080 should we all have a fair trial and a fair 0:19:25.119 --> 0:19:27.159 hearing of all the evidence. In fact, it could be 0:19:27.240 --> 0:19:30.159 that the evidence supports the idea that he shouldn't be 0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:32.920 convicted and Austin and removed from office, and that would 0:19:32.960 --> 0:19:36.000 help those four vulnerable senators. It's not clear to me 0:19:36.359 --> 0:19:39.200 that if you present the evidence or some witnesses, you're 0:19:39.320 --> 0:19:43.840 definitely strengthening the House Democrats case on impeachment. So that's 0:19:43.840 --> 0:19:46.040 the puzzle, and the question is are you going to 0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:49.040 appear to be fair and open in states where you're 0:19:49.040 --> 0:19:51.960 really gonna be vying for those independents and suburban voters 0:19:52.000 --> 0:19:56.400 in so, Professor, assuming that I guess witnesses are not 0:19:56.480 --> 0:19:59.840 called and there is no conviction, what would be a 0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:03.480 win for the Democrats here. Well, I think you're already 0:20:03.520 --> 0:20:05.600 seeing part of the win, Paul, which is that the 0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:07.719 speech is particularly last night. If you watch some of them, 0:20:07.760 --> 0:20:10.400 they got a little heated, they got a little fiery, uh. 0:20:10.440 --> 0:20:13.880 And the House Democrats are trying to use this opportunity, 0:20:13.880 --> 0:20:17.480 I think, to rile or you know, secure the Democratic 0:20:17.520 --> 0:20:19.880 Party base. As we know, there's a lot of conflict 0:20:19.920 --> 0:20:23.600 in the Democratic presidential nomination process. There's no clear front runner, 0:20:23.840 --> 0:20:26.520 nobody's madly in love with any of the choices, and 0:20:26.560 --> 0:20:28.840 that has to concern the Democrats in terms of turnout. 0:20:28.960 --> 0:20:31.520 But if you can drive this from the House effort. 0:20:31.680 --> 0:20:34.359 In other words, the House, as in eighteen, did very 0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:36.320 well to take it back the Democrats. If you could 0:20:36.400 --> 0:20:39.680 drive that and really rile up the base based on impeachment, 0:20:39.920 --> 0:20:44.639 particularly constituencies within the base on impeachment, that becomes a 0:20:44.680 --> 0:20:47.600 political victory down the road for the Democrats, even if 0:20:47.640 --> 0:20:50.240 they don't get the conviction that they're seeking. Really, what 0:20:50.320 --> 0:20:53.440 about pushback? People say, look, the economy is doing really well. 0:20:53.440 --> 0:20:56.640 What's your plan for that at a time when President 0:20:56.680 --> 0:21:02.040 Trump's policies have at least allowed it to keep going? Right, Lisa, 0:21:02.080 --> 0:21:04.680 this is exactly right. So it's a different audience. Right, 0:21:04.680 --> 0:21:07.840 You've got the independence who are probably going to vote 0:21:07.840 --> 0:21:10.080 for Trump at the economy stays good, even though they 0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:12.000 may not like him. The question is will to be 0:21:12.040 --> 0:21:14.919 Trump fatigue? Will Trump do something else that looks like 0:21:14.960 --> 0:21:17.040 this that just takes people over the edge and they 0:21:17.080 --> 0:21:19.520 can't stand them anymore. That's a possibility, but that's a 0:21:19.560 --> 0:21:22.080 different base. The Democrats have to worry about turnout in 0:21:22.119 --> 0:21:24.560 their own base. What cost Hillary Clinton is a lot 0:21:24.560 --> 0:21:28.000 of factors, but partially lower turnout among African Americans and 0:21:28.080 --> 0:21:31.040 defections among women in particular. We saw women go back 0:21:31.040 --> 0:21:33.919 to the Democrat Party in will they stick with the 0:21:33.960 --> 0:21:38.320 Democrat Party in so having people out there who are showcasing, 0:21:38.320 --> 0:21:42.000 particularly from these constituencies, that may be enough to get 0:21:42.040 --> 0:21:45.840 that energy level back up, sustaining the gains and not 0:21:46.000 --> 0:21:50.000 fall into the travel which was conflict and some dislike 0:21:50.000 --> 0:21:52.919 and apathy. Professor Shuler, is there any evidence that the 0:21:52.960 --> 0:21:57.320 impeachment proceedings have in fact been successful at energizing the 0:21:57.320 --> 0:22:01.480 Democratic base? Not yet, But we haven't seen the turnout 0:22:01.480 --> 0:22:03.439 in the primaries yet because we haven't gotten there right. 0:22:03.440 --> 0:22:05.520 We've got the Iowa caucuses them, we have New Hampshire, 0:22:05.680 --> 0:22:07.840 we have Nevada, we have South Carolina. We have to 0:22:07.840 --> 0:22:11.280 see what that that primary turnout looks like. Yes, it's competitive, 0:22:11.440 --> 0:22:14.240 but turnout is also an indication of interest. People are 0:22:14.240 --> 0:22:16.480 still registering the same places and mostly voting in the 0:22:16.480 --> 0:22:18.960 same places they vote in eighteen. That's an advantage for 0:22:18.960 --> 0:22:20.880 the Democrats to get out the door. If we see 0:22:20.960 --> 0:22:25.800 high primary turnout, that's gonna be evidence of engage Democratic Party. 0:22:26.080 --> 0:22:28.600 And that means that, you know, the Democrats can try 0:22:28.600 --> 0:22:31.159 to be hopeful about getting their base out. We know 0:22:31.240 --> 0:22:33.520 the Trump base will get out and so the question 0:22:33.560 --> 0:22:35.480 is do all Republicans get out the door, they tend 0:22:35.520 --> 0:22:37.960 to be more loyal, more unified, and they vote bigger 0:22:38.040 --> 0:22:41.639