1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:11,559
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:18,680
Speaker 2: Really really interesting day of single best idea and what

3
00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,520
Speaker 2: we do on Bloomberg Surveillance. Sometimes we have breaking news

4
00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:24,840
Speaker 2: headlines we have to get into where they're market moving.

5
00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,800
Speaker 2: In this moment, the Dow one up two hundred points

6
00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:32,879
Speaker 2: on futures. It was a Trump announcement on tariffs. So

7
00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:35,320
Speaker 2: we have to short a guest. We really try to

8
00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:38,239
Speaker 2: bring back guests that we've had to short soon. One

9
00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:41,559
Speaker 2: of those today was McK molroy with Lobo Institute on

10
00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:44,880
Speaker 2: the Pentagon, on defense. He came to us from Montana,

11
00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:49,600
Speaker 2: the land of the Strategic Air Command. It seems ancient history,

12
00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:53,800
Speaker 2: but it was when minute men missiles were important to America.

13
00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:57,160
Speaker 2: We'll get mc molroy on again, and many other worthies

14
00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:00,639
Speaker 2: as well. Someone that was a joyous to at length

15
00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:05,120
Speaker 2: today was Gina Martin Adams, really explaining the uncertainty that's

16
00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:09,319
Speaker 2: out there within securities analysis and within the stock market.

17
00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:12,800
Speaker 2: Here are Gina Martin Adams on this moment of a

18
00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:13,360
Speaker 2: trade war.

19
00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:17,120
Speaker 3: This president is very committed to amending the order. How

20
00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:19,759
Speaker 3: much he amends it as up to up for grabs,

21
00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,119
Speaker 3: it's a big question. But we will have an amendment

22
00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:26,319
Speaker 3: to the Global World Trade Order. And that's important to

23
00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:30,240
Speaker 3: understand is there's no going back to where we were

24
00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:33,880
Speaker 3: on January first. The question is how far do we

25
00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:36,840
Speaker 3: go in the adjustment process at this point in time.

26
00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,920
Speaker 3: There are still, though a substantial amount of people that

27
00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:42,520
Speaker 3: think this is just a lot of volatility and a

28
00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:46,520
Speaker 3: lot of noise and underlying this, he'll eventually go away

29
00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:49,320
Speaker 3: and stop. And I'm not sure that's going to be

30
00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:52,560
Speaker 3: the case. I think you have to sort of respect

31
00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:56,040
Speaker 3: the commitment level to changing things. While it'll be in

32
00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:58,600
Speaker 3: fits and starts and certainly a volatile path, we will

33
00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:02,520
Speaker 3: be a changed universe going forward. The question mark is

34
00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:05,000
Speaker 3: how much has that change and does the where is

35
00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:08,799
Speaker 3: it damaging? Where is it potentially positively impactful.

36
00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:14,639
Speaker 2: Jenna Martin Adams excellent fundamental and technical analysis running all

37
00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,280
Speaker 2: of Bloomberg Intelligence Equities. Thrilled that she could be in

38
00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:21,120
Speaker 2: studio with us today. One of the great secrets of

39
00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:24,679
Speaker 2: how we make the sauce, how we make the spaghetti

40
00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:27,359
Speaker 2: hair each and every day is that so many of

41
00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,440
Speaker 2: our guests really choose to be with us. I can't

42
00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:34,600
Speaker 2: emphasize enough how important that is. Someone who for decades

43
00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:39,560
Speaker 2: has really provided benefit from his time at Morgan Stanley

44
00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:44,520
Speaker 2: definitive on European banks. To his public service, I should

45
00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:48,400
Speaker 2: say to his United Kingdom has been huvon steinis now

46
00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:53,200
Speaker 2: in Oliver Wyman. He transfixed us today with the discussion

47
00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:58,720
Speaker 2: of the cash flow excuse me, the interior cash flow

48
00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:04,079
Speaker 2: dynamics of small business and retail America given as trade

49
00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,280
Speaker 2: or here Hugh van Steiners.

50
00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:10,959
Speaker 4: These are unbelievably entrepreneurial folk, and so they're trying to

51
00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:13,040
Speaker 4: sort of weave their way through this. Look. I think

52
00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:16,880
Speaker 4: the first and second line is really about the order books.

53
00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:20,400
Speaker 4: Has the sales come down where I've got highly leveraged

54
00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:22,880
Speaker 4: companies trying to forensically work through that. So I think

55
00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:26,320
Speaker 4: it's about cash conservation and it's about getting a cost down.

56
00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:28,480
Speaker 4: So I'm already picking up people saying to all their

57
00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:31,480
Speaker 4: management teams, have you thought about a cost round? What

58
00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:33,320
Speaker 4: are you doing about that? So that's one, But on

59
00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:36,360
Speaker 4: the other side in credit land, they're actually people trying

60
00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:38,480
Speaker 4: to look this as an opportunity and actually trying to

61
00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:41,200
Speaker 4: buy in some of the credits at wider spreads. About

62
00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:44,440
Speaker 4: sixty percent of the new inflows for the private market

63
00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:48,600
Speaker 4: firms for the last two years as being credit and overwhelming.

64
00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:50,600
Speaker 4: As we've discussed before, that's coming from the insurers. These

65
00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:54,600
Speaker 4: are steady hands they want to deploy in size, but

66
00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:58,240
Speaker 4: obviously on the equity side there is more stress in

67
00:03:58,240 --> 00:03:58,880
Speaker 4: the system.

68
00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,600
Speaker 2: Van Steiners, and he was just brilliant on some of

69
00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:05,280
Speaker 2: the challenges we may face in private equity as well.

70
00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:08,600
Speaker 2: What an eventful day it's been in through a week

71
00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:10,920
Speaker 2: that seems to be as exhausting as every other week

72
00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:14,840
Speaker 2: we've had over the last number of weeks. We're watching

73
00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:19,800
Speaker 2: the markets and the correlated changes almost Bloomberg headline to

74
00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:22,479
Speaker 2: Bloomberg headline. We'll continue to do that through the week,

75
00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:27,160
Speaker 2: and your commute across the nation. Bloomberg Radio and Android

76
00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:31,000
Speaker 2: Auto an Apple CarPlay Good Morning ninety nine one FM

77
00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:35,640
Speaker 2: in Washington, where Lisa Bramwitz is holding good conversations with

78
00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:40,560
Speaker 2: the IMF types. We say good morning out on YouTube podcasts.

79
00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:49,760
Speaker 2: This is single best idea