WEBVTT - U.S. Bans Travel from India as Virus Surges 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.440 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carrol Masser and I'm 0:00:04.440 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanibek. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.280 --> 0:00:09.799 you the latest news from the world of business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.600 plus technology, politics, economics, all harnessing the power of Business 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:17.119 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:19.600 analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can 0:00:19.640 --> 0:00:23.160 download Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.120 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.840 pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:32.040 YouTube search Bloomberg Global News Present, Biden saying it's gonna 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:33.400 be a tough call on whether it order U. S. 0:00:33.440 --> 0:00:35.640 Troops to get vaccinated. It's funny, Tim, I actually thought 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:38.720 the military was already getting vaccinated. But that's not the case. No, 0:00:38.880 --> 0:00:40.519 it's not. And look, I think this is something that 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:42.680 a lot of organizations are struggling with right now. To 0:00:42.760 --> 0:00:45.479 what extent can you actually mandate of vaccination? Yeah, exactly. 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:47.520 So we've got that going on. We've got global cases 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:49.760 of the virus topping a hundred and fifty million India 0:00:49.800 --> 0:00:53.479 remaining at the epicenter of the pandemic. They reported record 0:00:53.479 --> 0:00:56.480 new infections today. There's a lot going on. Let's get 0:00:56.480 --> 0:00:58.600 to it with Dr Ian LUs Bader, as we always 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:01.160 do on our Friday's clotl a professor of medicine at 0:01:01.320 --> 0:01:03.480 n y U Land, going on the phone in Michigan 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:06.360 on this Friday. Dr LUs Bade, are nice to have 0:01:06.440 --> 0:01:09.399 you back with us. How are you good? Good? Always 0:01:09.400 --> 0:01:11.920 a pleasure, Happy Friday, guys. Oh my god, this has 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:15.840 been I guess it's been a hard week. Um helped 0:01:15.880 --> 0:01:17.600 me out here because we did have a headline to 0:01:17.800 --> 0:01:20.840 Reuter's reporting that the president is set to ban most 0:01:20.880 --> 0:01:24.240 travel to the US from India. So I was having 0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:26.319 a conversation with someone and it's like, look, we're doing 0:01:26.360 --> 0:01:29.360 so great, and he's like, my wife, she's from India. 0:01:29.520 --> 0:01:31.760 We're not doing so great. The world is still having 0:01:31.800 --> 0:01:33.520 a tough time, and we don't get through it, all 0:01:33.560 --> 0:01:36.160 of us until everybody gets through it. UM. I know 0:01:36.240 --> 0:01:38.320 we talked to you about this kind of almost every 0:01:38.319 --> 0:01:40.880 week at this point, but give me your thoughts on this, 0:01:40.959 --> 0:01:42.840 especially as we watch what's going on in Indian some 0:01:42.920 --> 0:01:46.080 other parts of the world. So as we talked about 0:01:46.160 --> 0:01:49.360 last week and really we're at the head of the curve. 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:53.559 We knew that India was erupting, and uh, I don't 0:01:53.560 --> 0:01:56.880 think we've anywhere near seeing the top. You know, we're 0:01:57.080 --> 0:02:00.360 estimating a hundred and fifty million global case, says. I 0:02:00.360 --> 0:02:03.120 think all of these are really gross underestimates. I think 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:06.920 the ability for many countries to track the real number 0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:11.240 of cases is flawed. In Night and the Spanish Blue, 0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:14.560 it was estimated about a third of the world's population 0:02:15.440 --> 0:02:18.320 came down with a Spanish flu, higher higher mortality than 0:02:18.360 --> 0:02:21.400 we're seeing now. Uh, and that was before air travel 0:02:21.560 --> 0:02:24.600 was really widespread. So I think this is really sort 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:26.720 of the tip of the spirit of the tip of 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:29.520 the iceberg as what we're seeing. And I do think, 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:34.000 even though it maybe politically incorrect, I think a travel ban, 0:02:34.200 --> 0:02:37.840 even though that's very imperfect, is probably very reasonable to 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:40.800 do based on what we're seeing in India. Why is 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:44.440 that is that because of variants? Yes, so, I think 0:02:44.480 --> 0:02:46.920 India has a number of problems. One, you know, for 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:50.639 the skeptics of public health measures, this is really an 0:02:50.639 --> 0:02:53.680 example of what happens when there's really a systemic failure 0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:57.679 of public health measures. So one very low vaccination rate 0:02:57.760 --> 0:03:01.200 under ten percent to us uper spread or events that 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:07.200 were really sanctioned by the government. And three perhaps maybe cremation, 0:03:07.440 --> 0:03:11.960 you know, when you're burning particulate matter, would smoke varions. 0:03:12.040 --> 0:03:17.000 We know that there's higher complications in areas of pollution 0:03:17.120 --> 0:03:20.359 or smoke, so it's possible that may also be playing 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:22.960 a role. But I think the key thing is lack 0:03:22.960 --> 0:03:26.799 of vaccination, and there will ques solution to that. My 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:28.280 question also though, it has to do with why a 0:03:28.320 --> 0:03:29.919 travel ban would be the right thing for the United 0:03:29.919 --> 0:03:31.959 States right now, given that we do have have COVID 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:33.960 running rampant through the U s as well. Is it 0:03:34.080 --> 0:03:36.240 is the variance element, the concern that there could be 0:03:36.320 --> 0:03:39.280 a different strain of COVID brought over from another country. 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:43.080 Oh for sure. Now we already have here in Michigan 0:03:43.120 --> 0:03:46.920 where I am at a college graduation h to be 0:03:47.120 --> 0:03:51.240 one six one seven variant. We've seen some cases in California. 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:54.520 That is one of the dominant strains in India, and 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:57.520 the problem is it may be somewhat resistant to the 0:03:57.520 --> 0:04:00.440 Fiser vaccine. That's unclear. We're getting some data on that. 0:04:00.720 --> 0:04:02.960 And it also seems to be more infectious that it 0:04:03.000 --> 0:04:06.240 spreads more easily. So there are a lot of you know, 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:09.600 potential issues here and uh, you know, some of those 0:04:09.640 --> 0:04:12.800 cases are also being seen in China. So we're nowhere 0:04:12.840 --> 0:04:16.799 done with what's going on. So how does it potentially 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:21.800 impact the United States? Well, you know, I think the 0:04:21.880 --> 0:04:24.400 United States we're going to be okay. You know, we 0:04:24.400 --> 0:04:29.000 we unfortunately about of adults under thirty five had declined 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:31.839 the vaccine. They have vaccine hesitancy, so we we have 0:04:31.960 --> 0:04:34.640 to do a little bit better there. One of the reasons, 0:04:34.680 --> 0:04:37.920 for example, we can't mandate scenes generally is the feeling 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:42.320 that it's under an emergency use authorization not FDA approved. 0:04:42.400 --> 0:04:45.800 So to make people take something that's not FDA approved 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:50.080 does potentially cause a problem. So that may be one 0:04:50.120 --> 0:04:52.520 reason why we can't mandate it, although I will have 0:04:52.600 --> 0:04:54.680 to see what happens with that. But I think in 0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:59.000 the US we have about forty going on of adults vaccinated. 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:01.760 I think we're going to be okay, but I'm not 0:05:01.800 --> 0:05:05.040 sure globally that's going to be the same case. Hey, 0:05:05.120 --> 0:05:08.520 Dr les Bader, I'm I'm wondering about if we're going 0:05:08.560 --> 0:05:10.719 to just continue to see you know, a few weeks 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:12.400 ago we were talking about what was happening in Brazil. 0:05:12.440 --> 0:05:14.200 Now we're talking about what's happening in India. Is this 0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:16.400 just going to keep going from one country to another 0:05:16.440 --> 0:05:19.080 country because of so many countries aren't vaccinated right now? 0:05:19.120 --> 0:05:23.720 Is this how the pandemic plays out over the next year? Absolutely, 0:05:23.760 --> 0:05:26.480 you know, this is exactly what happened, well not exactly, 0:05:26.520 --> 0:05:31.120 but very similar to what happened in the Night Spanish flu. Basically, 0:05:31.160 --> 0:05:34.159 it went around the country exactly as it did in 0:05:34.200 --> 0:05:36.800 the United States. You know, we saw New York a 0:05:36.920 --> 0:05:39.640 year ago as the epicenter and people in the Midwest that, oh, 0:05:39.720 --> 0:05:42.680 we're safe now. It hit both coasts and the in 0:05:42.720 --> 0:05:46.159 the Midwest. Uh, and then it went from country to country. 0:05:46.360 --> 0:05:49.440 That was primarily in World War Two with the troops, 0:05:49.440 --> 0:05:52.599 ships going to Europe and so forth. That probably helped 0:05:52.600 --> 0:05:55.960 spread it. But I think we're going to see continued 0:05:56.520 --> 0:06:01.200 multiple waves and unfortunately without vaccination, when you get mutation, 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:05.560 and with mutation you can get resistant viruses, right, which 0:06:05.600 --> 0:06:08.400 is why. Yeah, and we're also talking about booster shots 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:10.720 and something we maybe we'll get into in the next block. 0:06:10.800 --> 0:06:12.640 Ian Sit tight for a second and we'll come back 0:06:12.680 --> 0:06:14.839 to you in just a moment. We are talking with 0:06:14.920 --> 0:06:17.040 Dr Ian lust bed Or, Clinical Professor of Medicine and 0:06:17.240 --> 0:06:19.880 why you lend go Medical Center on the phone up 0:06:19.960 --> 0:06:24.040 from Michigan. But I do wonder, like, does it ultimately 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:26.680 if we don't have enough vaccinated, does it come back 0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:28.680 to us? I know Dr leus Padre saying we should 0:06:28.680 --> 0:06:30.520 be okay, but I do wonder. I do wonder too, 0:06:30.600 --> 0:06:32.320 especially with all the hesitancy that we're seeing. Right the 0:06:32.320 --> 0:06:34.719 people who wanted to get vaccinated have already gotten vaccinated. 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:36.680 And I'm having a lot of conversations with people are like, 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:39.360 I'm not going to do I'm not, You're not I am. 0:06:39.520 --> 0:06:43.040 I am like a uh in different walks in my life, 0:06:43.160 --> 0:06:45.680 and and I'm respecting it because everybody has to make 0:06:45.920 --> 0:06:49.920 the decision they feel comfortable with. But um, it makes 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:52.200 sense when he gives me under age of thirty five 0:06:52.240 --> 0:06:54.640 declining vaccine, I get it. I get that number right. 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:56.240 It makes sense. Well, let's get right back to it 0:06:56.279 --> 0:06:58.800 with Dr Ian lust Betaor, clinical professor of medicine and 0:06:58.800 --> 0:07:00.920 why you land going to medical center? Joining us now 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:04.200 on the phone from Michigan. Dr LUs Bader, I want 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:07.240 to just talk about reaction to the vaccine, because it's 0:07:07.240 --> 0:07:08.920 a question that Carol and I have been talking about 0:07:08.960 --> 0:07:10.960 a lot, and it's a question we've been asking, and 0:07:11.000 --> 0:07:12.840 I know a lot of people have been asking each other, Hey, 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:15.520 what was your reaction to the vaccine? Why are some 0:07:15.560 --> 0:07:20.080 people having such significant reactions to their second shot or 0:07:20.120 --> 0:07:22.040 even their first shot and others aren't. And I'll share 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:24.320 the example of my wife. She got them more dinner shot. 0:07:24.320 --> 0:07:27.280 After the second shot, she was really sick for you know, 0:07:27.280 --> 0:07:31.000 about twelve hours and like nausea, vomiting, And I got 0:07:31.040 --> 0:07:33.000 the visor shot and after my second shot, I was 0:07:33.080 --> 0:07:35.520 I was a key, but it really went away after 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:41.680 about thirty six hours. So Charlie Pellent as usual, right 0:07:41.880 --> 0:07:44.800 right on the money, and you as well, Kim uh So. 0:07:45.720 --> 0:07:48.960 That scenes and people's responses um not only do the 0:07:49.040 --> 0:07:52.760 vaccines but to the COVID infection itself are very complex 0:07:52.800 --> 0:07:55.520 and I don't have a simple answer for you. There's 0:07:55.560 --> 0:07:59.600 some data UM that people who have had the virus 0:07:59.680 --> 0:08:01.840 and then get vaccinated, you know, there's a fair number 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:04.640 of people who have a symptomatic COVID may have a 0:08:04.720 --> 0:08:10.120 more dramatic response UM and the composition of these vaccines 0:08:10.160 --> 0:08:13.680 as somewhat complex. You do have this RNA that's at 0:08:13.720 --> 0:08:17.440 least for the MODERNA and the pleasure vaccines surrounded by 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:20.880 what's called the liposome or or a lipid coat, and 0:08:21.000 --> 0:08:25.840 people any vaccine, mumps, MUSS, rebel at, tetanus, singles, vaccine, 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:28.880 all of these vaccines that we give people typically do 0:08:29.040 --> 0:08:31.760 cause achiness at the site and fever. I mean, you're 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:36.680 you're recognizing a foreign object, of foreign response to an invader, 0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:40.520 and of course the body has a variable response to it. 0:08:40.880 --> 0:08:44.200 What I would say, though, is that most of these 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:49.000 are really relatively minor limited usually to a day or 0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:51.840 two or less, and that even people who are on 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:55.480 some you know suppression, you know, rumantroid arthritis, crones disease, 0:08:55.880 --> 0:08:59.040 other medications of course, talked to your doctor, seemed to 0:08:59.080 --> 0:09:02.440 do well with it. So my answer would really be 0:09:02.640 --> 0:09:06.920 individual variation the component of the vaccine. And just like 0:09:07.000 --> 0:09:11.440 a variable response to COVID to do very well, one 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:14.120 percent do not. And in some ways it's hard to 0:09:14.160 --> 0:09:17.640 predict exactly why. Part of it is genetics, but part 0:09:17.679 --> 0:09:20.880 of it is expected. Any vaccine, any foreign substance, you 0:09:20.960 --> 0:09:24.120 usually get some immune response, and that's good. You want 0:09:24.160 --> 0:09:27.080 an immune response. But does it mean anything if you 0:09:27.160 --> 0:09:29.720 don't have some kind of response to a vaccine, if 0:09:29.800 --> 0:09:33.000 you don't kind of feel anything, does that mean something 0:09:33.040 --> 0:09:37.160 different in terms of your ability to fight off COVID 0:09:37.320 --> 0:09:41.239 or something some other kind of virus. No, not necessarily 0:09:41.280 --> 0:09:44.559 send people breathe right through it. I send patients of 0:09:44.640 --> 0:09:47.959 afterbout doing testing after. We don't really recommend that. We 0:09:48.000 --> 0:09:52.280 don't really do that. Most of the gum covid exposure 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:56.559 shows nuclear capsid antibodies, which means the infection you can 0:09:56.679 --> 0:10:00.079 and some people, if they're really concerned, check antibodies for 0:10:00.160 --> 0:10:02.880 spike protein. All the patients I've seen has had the 0:10:02.960 --> 0:10:06.319 vaccine do show spike protein. We don't do it routinely. 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:08.920 So again, I think the data is very good. As 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:12.000 we said, out have two hundred million shots, only about 0:10:12.080 --> 0:10:16.040 five cases of people after either both shots or the 0:10:16.120 --> 0:10:18.880 single shot J and J that is, but the two 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:23.440 RNA shots have come down with covid, so pretty effective. 0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:25.520 Is there any data up to now that shows a 0:10:25.600 --> 0:10:28.640 different reaction or different reactions in general following five or 0:10:28.760 --> 0:10:31.400 versus moderna because there is that anecdotal sort of thing 0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:33.079 that people say, right, Oh, I hear you know this 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:35.000 shot is worse than the other shot, but is there 0:10:35.040 --> 0:10:38.199 any data to back that up, not that I'm aware of. 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:41.800 You know, they're they're very similar technology, the messenger urn 0:10:42.040 --> 0:10:46.000 technology with encased in in the liposome. And really, what 0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:50.079 I would say is, because it's so unpredictable, we should 0:10:50.160 --> 0:10:52.840 not really be asking for one or the other. They're 0:10:52.880 --> 0:10:56.280 all really quite effective. As you have pointed out correctly, 0:10:56.400 --> 0:10:58.920 don't don't get de lax. In other words, we really 0:10:59.000 --> 0:11:02.000 need two shots, either three or four weeks support for 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:05.040 maximal immunity. And that's even a week or two after 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:08.160 the second shot. You know, J and J somewhat different. 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:11.120 You still have to wait for that. Um, But no, 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:16.199 having your fever chills, uh does not necessarily make a difference. 0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:18.920 There are some people who just don't FORMANTABOUDI should we 0:11:18.960 --> 0:11:22.760 see this with hepatitis be actually moms, minsils rebella. You 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:25.440 can get people several shots and some people just don't 0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:29.040 forman about It's not quite clear why that is all right, 0:11:29.080 --> 0:11:31.719 good to know, UM, congratulations on the graduation. Thinking it 0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:37.680 might be your son, but I hope you well. Congratulations engineering, 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:41.520 thanks so much, really impressive. Yeah, you have a great weekend. 0:11:41.559 --> 0:11:44.480 Stay safe, of course. Dr Ian ls Beta, clinical professor 0:11:44.480 --> 0:11:46.319 of Medicine at n y U Land. Going on the 0:11:46.400 --> 0:11:49.880 phone in Michigan today always kind of provides clarification. Also, 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:54.640 good to know he's traveling. He is. Yeah, yeah, he's vaccinated. 0:11:54.760 --> 0:11:58.360 We're hearing that from we are. This is Bloomberg Business 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:02.280 Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic 0:12:02.600 --> 0:12:05.960 from Bloomberg Radio. Another one of our most read stories 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:09.120 on the Bloomberg. It's about how President Binds proposed tax 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:13.120 hikes are creating a wealth advisor frenzy is getting a 0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:15.319 little money out there, Tim. It is, especially if you 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:18.280 have a ton of money. Joel Weber is editor at 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:20.360 Bloomberg Business Week, and he joins us on the remote 0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:23.360 from Brooklyn. Laura Davison is a Congressional tax reporter for 0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:26.560 Bloomberg News on the phone from Washington, d C. Joel, 0:12:26.720 --> 0:12:29.640 nothing has been you know, put into policy yet, Nothing 0:12:29.679 --> 0:12:32.640 has has been made law yet, but that hasn't stopped 0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:36.440 people from freaking out and from advisors from playing therapist. 0:12:37.040 --> 0:12:40.160 Oh man, the freak out has has really begun. Um 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:45.079 And yeah, I think everyone is just itching to understand like, 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:47.440 what could happen, what might happen, what the odds are, 0:12:47.559 --> 0:12:50.120 what they should be doing now, And if you have 0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:53.840 enough money to have a financial advisor, um, you are 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:58.680 calling them, maybe maybe multiple times. And so Laura had 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:01.480 the great idea to talk to a couple of financial 0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:05.199 advisors and get their advice for clients right now, and 0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:09.040 Laura tell us what you learned. So basically what advisors 0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:11.559 are saying is, you know, hurry up, let's make a plan, 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:13.319 and then we've got to wait and see what Congress 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:15.760 actually does. This plan that Biden put up the speak 0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:17.959 is going to go over a bunch of revisions, a 0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:20.160 bunch of negotiations, and probably is not going to look 0:13:20.520 --> 0:13:23.839 exactly like what the President proposed. So they're looking to 0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:26.640 pass some sort of plan, you know, September October, but 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:28.280 that could slip. So really it is only going to 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:30.240 be a couple of months at the end of the 0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:34.160 year before these tax increases likely take effects. So wealth 0:13:34.200 --> 0:13:36.439 advisors are saying, look, if you are going to have 0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:39.520 to uh sell any assets, take any capital gains, and 0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:42.680 pay taxes on those games, let's do that now versus 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:45.320 waiting for the next couple of years because that capital 0:13:45.360 --> 0:13:47.440 gains rate, you know, it will likely increase in its 0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:51.360 now Biden has proposed almost so they're saying, hey, you know, 0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:53.280 if you've got some shares that you're gonna sell, let's 0:13:53.320 --> 0:13:55.599 sell them now, pay the pay the tax at the 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:58.160 lower rate, or even saying, if you have some some 0:13:58.520 --> 0:14:01.520 assets that have really appreciated something you think, like Tesla stock, 0:14:01.559 --> 0:14:04.559 the bitcoin, go ahead, sell those, buy it back, and 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:06.520 then you've locked in those games at the lower rate, 0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:08.520 because who knows what the future beholds. But it does 0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:11.160 still seem like, Laura, there is even uncertainty in doing 0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:14.760 that because you and are calling Ben's spend Steverman in 0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:17.280 the piece raised the possibility if there could be even 0:14:17.480 --> 0:14:22.320 retroactive changes. Correct, So this is the risk here. You know, 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:25.280 Congress could say this is totally within their purview. You know, hey, 0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:29.480 the tax increases already took effect January one, which would 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:31.760 mean any sort of planning would would essentially be moot 0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:34.080 at this point, and you could actually end up hurting 0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:37.880 yourself here. Both Biden advisors as well as congressional Democratic 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:40.120 advisors have said that they don't like doing this, but 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:42.520 this isn't their plan. But you know, there's always that 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:44.720 risk out there until until the bill is signed. The 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:47.200 thing I think is interesting is what about the I 0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:50.720 R S. Uh putting more scrutiny on the wealthy when 0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:52.640 it comes to their taxes kind of taken maybe a 0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:56.080 deeper luck. President Biden has proposed eight billion for the 0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:58.800 I R S to strength and enforcement in the coming decade. 0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:02.360 How word are they about that, Laura? This could be 0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:05.680 a huge sea change thee the wealthy, and really taxpayers 0:15:05.680 --> 0:15:08.720 at every level have seen audits drop precipitously really in 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:10.240 the past decade as the I R S has had 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:13.320 its budget cut. Um they're basically proposing to double or 0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:16.760 even triple the i r S enforcement budget, bringing new auditors, 0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:19.320 bringing new data tools to find fraud. And also one 0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:23.280 thing is interesting is having for for bank accounts, having 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:26.240 some of the inflows and outflows from bank accounts reported 0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:27.440 to the I r S, so they have a little 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:30.520 bit more visibility on how much money investors should be reporting. 0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:32.680 This would really be a sea change. And uh, you know, 0:15:33.080 --> 0:15:34.880 if you have a wealth advisor's probably also a good 0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:36.800 idea to make sure you have a good account into 0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:39.160 at tax lawyer on hand as well. Right, make sure 0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:42.360 he's doing the right And all those people right now 0:15:42.440 --> 0:15:44.560 are just like the financial advisors like, great, I haven't 0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:46.600 heard from you forever. Thanks for picking up the phone 0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:49.480 and calling me. We'll come up with a plan now, jerk, 0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:51.960 But so so Laura, I want to have a better 0:15:52.080 --> 0:15:54.840 understanding of this. So that's a hurry hurry weight strategy 0:15:55.040 --> 0:15:59.320 that they're basically um advising. And and are there rainy 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:01.520 day implicated sations to this, Like are they saying like 0:16:02.040 --> 0:16:04.560 don't invest right now, like hold off until we know 0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:07.960 what's going on, like take us through the various ways 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:12.000 that they're actually trying to coach people. So basically they're 0:16:12.000 --> 0:16:14.240 telling people, you know, continue as you were if you 0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:16.920 had a you know, a plan, uh, you know, continue 0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:20.280 with that plan. But if you're looking to sell something, 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:22.880 you know, let's do it sooner rather than later. Get 0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:25.000 the deal structured so that it can happen by New 0:16:25.120 --> 0:16:27.800 Year's Eve if you want to go ahead and execute 0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:30.000 on that. Um, you know, there's there's really so much 0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:32.440 uncertainty right now. Basically everyone every adviser saying, you know, 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:35.760 don't do anything yet, let's just you know, make create 0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:39.160 some options for ourselves. Look, at different different planning tools 0:16:39.360 --> 0:16:41.160 and then we can make a decision once we kind 0:16:41.200 --> 0:16:43.240 of have a sense of what Congress is going to 0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:46.840 do here. Okay, So I want to also understand, like 0:16:46.920 --> 0:16:49.800 another element, and this part isn't in your current reporting, 0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:52.120 but I'd like to understand, like, you know, a state 0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:56.720 tax was was potentially part of this first phase of talking. 0:16:56.800 --> 0:16:59.200 They seems like they've tabled that, Like what what are 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:01.640 these financial advisors? What do they have to say about 0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:04.080 this the likelihood of a potential of state tax down 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:07.040 the down the road. Yeah, so the state tax right 0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:10.520 now doesn't kick in until you know you have eleven 0:17:10.800 --> 0:17:12.959 point seven million dollars at death or twice that if 0:17:12.960 --> 0:17:15.600 you're if you're married. Um, Biden left that out of 0:17:15.640 --> 0:17:18.080 the plan. Um likely because there's some Democrats in the 0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:20.800 Senate who would not support lowering that threshold. But he 0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:23.520 did campaign on bringing that threshold down to three and 0:17:23.560 --> 0:17:25.240 a half a million dollars, so a lot more people 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:27.040 would be affected by that. That is one of those 0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:29.120 elements where you could see, you know, if if moderates 0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:32.440 and and progressives are negotiating over different elements, that's one 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:35.040 area right that progressive and say, hey, we really want 0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:37.240 to get this in here. It raises a bunch of money. 0:17:37.240 --> 0:17:38.600 It would help Biden pay for a lot of his 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:41.840 spending proposals. So that's one area that's still in play. 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:45.840 The Tax Law Jobs Act, of seen the Trump tax cuts, 0:17:46.200 --> 0:17:49.200 those are still pretty fresh. So what did advisors say 0:17:49.240 --> 0:17:51.520 to to you about the idea of people just kind 0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:53.639 of doing nothing and perhaps even if there are changes, 0:17:53.720 --> 0:17:56.360 doing nothing and maybe even waiting for a new administration 0:17:56.440 --> 0:18:00.240 to to revert to rules back to today. So says 0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:02.480 it will be other thing that that advisors are really 0:18:02.560 --> 0:18:06.080 looking at is, you know, if Republicans sweep in, you know, 0:18:06.119 --> 0:18:07.840 do we basically just have a sea change back in 0:18:07.920 --> 0:18:10.639 the other direction, which as we've seen, you know, with 0:18:10.720 --> 0:18:13.760 the use of reconciliation, this partisan tool to get built 0:18:13.800 --> 0:18:16.160 through Congress. You know, if we keep having the pendulum 0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:18.399 swing one way or another, uh, we could see policy 0:18:18.480 --> 0:18:21.160 changes on tax and anything, you know, every four years 0:18:21.240 --> 0:18:25.359 changing significantly. Um. And this is something that you know, 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:28.399 really has frustrated tax lawyers for enable. They're just finally 0:18:28.440 --> 0:18:30.600 getting all the details from the Tax Cuts and Jobs 0:18:30.640 --> 0:18:32.720 Act into place, and now they basically have to totally 0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:34.439 undo them and all the advice they had given their 0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:36.639 clients totally goes out the window. It's it's very, very 0:18:36.680 --> 0:18:39.760 confusing and hectic. Well, the freak at the Frenzy says 0:18:39.800 --> 0:18:43.240 to me, Laura that the wealthy do expect some change, 0:18:43.359 --> 0:18:45.840 even if the political process may be tough, they ultimately 0:18:45.920 --> 0:18:48.159 do expect they're going to be paying more taxes. Is 0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:52.600 that a fair assessment? Taxes? Uh, more likely than not 0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:55.480 are going to go up, Which which taxes? How much? 0:18:55.520 --> 0:18:57.520 Who's going to be affected? That's what's going to be 0:18:57.600 --> 0:18:59.360 negotiated over the next several months. And you know who 0:18:59.400 --> 0:19:01.639 makes money? Long wait, the financial advisors, right, and the 0:19:01.760 --> 0:19:06.639 lawyers too. Listen. It's a great story. And I feel like, 0:19:06.800 --> 0:19:08.879 you know, Jelly put taxes in a story here on 0:19:08.920 --> 0:19:14.840 Bloomberg and like everybody wants to read it. Yeah. The 0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:19.760 I think the amount of information that we're going to 0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:23.120 be consuming on this, like we're we were all armchair 0:19:23.280 --> 0:19:27.280 quarterbacks for the pandemic, you know, on everything about the virus, 0:19:27.359 --> 0:19:30.600 about vaccines, and now we're entering this new phase where 0:19:30.720 --> 0:19:32.840 you know, now we have a new administration, new stuff, 0:19:33.160 --> 0:19:35.000 and I think, you know, step up in basis is 0:19:35.040 --> 0:19:37.240 going to be like this thing that everyone is gonna 0:19:37.280 --> 0:19:39.080 want to know about. So we're just gonna be watching 0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:42.040 this so closely. It is such a core competency story 0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:44.359 at Bloomberg and was owned this for the months to 0:19:44.400 --> 0:19:46.520 come such and I'm sure we'll be reading more more 0:19:46.600 --> 0:19:50.320 from Laurada like every day. Just keep it coming, Laura 0:19:50.480 --> 0:19:53.239 explaining it all to us. Laura Davison, thank you so much, 0:19:53.320 --> 0:19:55.639 Congressional tax reporter at Bloomberg News. She's with us on 0:19:55.720 --> 0:19:58.520 the phone in DC. Chill Weber, Editor Bloomberg Business Week, 0:19:58.520 --> 0:20:00.320 have a great week, and on the remote act Sass 0:20:00.680 --> 0:20:05.200 from Brooklyn. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer 0:20:05.440 --> 0:20:09.879 and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic from Bloomberg Radio the 0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:13.119 Bloomberg Big Take Today it's a Bloomberg exclusive that you 0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:15.040 kind of need to be focusing on, and it's a 0:20:15.119 --> 0:20:17.320