WEBVTT - The Degenerate Gambler’s Guide to the Election 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:27.724 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, our show about making 0:00:27.764 --> 0:00:30.164 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 0:00:29.844 --> 0:00:32.284 And I'm Nate Silver. Today on the show will be 0:00:32.324 --> 0:00:35.604 giving you a degenerate gambler's guide to the election, including 0:00:35.604 --> 0:00:38.604 a big proposed election bet which has not been reciprocated yet. 0:00:39.804 --> 0:00:42.404 After that, we're going to talk about the threat of 0:00:42.724 --> 0:00:46.404 pots and automation to one of the things that Nate 0:00:46.484 --> 0:00:49.284 and I hold dear to our hearts, poker and online 0:00:49.324 --> 0:00:51.324 poker specifically, and then. 0:00:51.164 --> 0:00:55.604 We'll re evaluate p doom, the probability of severe misalignment 0:00:55.644 --> 0:00:59.684 from artificial intelligence in light of recent news at Open AI. 0:01:05.484 --> 0:01:07.084 This is a good episode, Maria. I feel like we 0:01:07.204 --> 0:01:09.804 were kind of hitting all the basic angles today. 0:01:10.324 --> 0:01:12.964 I feel like we are too, so so let's uh, 0:01:13.044 --> 0:01:17.324 let's get it started. Nate, I couldn't help but notice 0:01:17.884 --> 0:01:22.404 a recent exchange on Twitter that you that you engaged in, 0:01:23.044 --> 0:01:27.684 As so often happens, your views on Twitter were challenged. 0:01:27.764 --> 0:01:29.804 I know this is this comes as a shock to 0:01:29.844 --> 0:01:32.644 everyone every time I hear it. You know, people don't 0:01:32.644 --> 0:01:37.684 always agree with you, and this particular challenge was about 0:01:37.684 --> 0:01:42.164 Florida right and about the likelihood what percentage by what 0:01:42.284 --> 0:01:45.444 percent Trump was going to carry Florida. So do you 0:01:45.484 --> 0:01:46.924 want to do you want to talk us through a 0:01:46.964 --> 0:01:50.684 little bit what happened and why we're why we're starting 0:01:50.724 --> 0:01:53.684 our show with this particular Twitter exchange. 0:01:53.884 --> 0:01:57.244 Yeah. So we published an article at Silver Bulletin late 0:01:57.324 --> 0:02:00.964 last week pointing out that that Florida's kind of close 0:02:01.004 --> 0:02:02.844 in the polls, Harris is down by about three and 0:02:02.844 --> 0:02:06.884 a half points, similar to Trump's margin of victory in 0:02:06.924 --> 0:02:10.924 twenty twenty, and that maybe the Harris campaign, you have 0:02:10.964 --> 0:02:14.244 infinite money, it's worth actually investing in the Sunshine State. 0:02:15.924 --> 0:02:20.924 The American investor Keith Erboy, He's like, you're an idiot. 0:02:21.004 --> 0:02:23.404 Trump's gonna win Florida by This is not the literal 0:02:23.524 --> 0:02:26.204 verbatim version, right, You're an idiot. Trump's gonna win Florida 0:02:26.244 --> 0:02:28.324 by at least eight points, if not ten or twelve. 0:02:29.044 --> 0:02:30.724 And I'm like, okay, bro, how much are you willing to, like, 0:02:30.724 --> 0:02:34.004 actually wager on this? And he says one hundred K, 0:02:34.124 --> 0:02:37.364 which seems like a seemed like a good amount to me. Right, 0:02:37.404 --> 0:02:40.284 it's a serious it's a serious adult bet. And by 0:02:40.284 --> 0:02:42.044 the way, there's a chance that Trump will win Florida 0:02:42.084 --> 0:02:45.244 by eight points or more if you look at polymarket, 0:02:45.244 --> 0:02:47.244 about twenty five percent. But I'm willing to take one 0:02:47.284 --> 0:02:50.364 hundred k bet where I win seventy factions of the time. 0:02:50.484 --> 0:02:53.284 And so I said, okay, you got to send me 0:02:53.324 --> 0:02:55.644 a contract though, because you've been sketchy lately, and I 0:02:55.644 --> 0:02:59.524 don't really you know, he's not like a known I mean, ironically, 0:02:59.684 --> 0:03:03.164 like known gamblers are like more reliable for payout stuff, right, 0:03:03.164 --> 0:03:04.804 But I don't want him saying like, oh, the election 0:03:04.924 --> 0:03:08.604 was stolen. I don't want him saying, oh haha, I 0:03:08.644 --> 0:03:11.324 was just joking. So need some type of third party 0:03:11.364 --> 0:03:14.524 to step in and create a contract or at least 0:03:14.524 --> 0:03:18.684 create an obligation expectation. So far that has not happened. 0:03:18.844 --> 0:03:22.884 We had a little bit of negotiations by back channel email. 0:03:22.924 --> 0:03:25.124 The mutual friend said I'm willing to do this and 0:03:25.164 --> 0:03:29.884 then and mister Riboy has not replied yet, so I'm 0:03:29.884 --> 0:03:32.524 not sure kind of how much more time I want 0:03:32.524 --> 0:03:35.164 to give my I don't like giving people free options, right. 0:03:36.524 --> 0:03:37.804 You know, if there's a poll that comes out this 0:03:37.844 --> 0:03:39.684 week showing Trump way up in Florida, then all of 0:03:39.684 --> 0:03:42.604 a sudden, his bet becomes not plus TV but better, 0:03:42.684 --> 0:03:45.724 but Yeah, So anyway, I think this is an honorable 0:03:45.764 --> 0:03:49.124 way to resolve differences, right that if you actually have 0:03:49.164 --> 0:03:52.524 to pay a tax for your bullshit on Twitter, right, 0:03:52.604 --> 0:03:54.764 seventy five percent chance of losing one hundred K, then 0:03:54.804 --> 0:03:57.884 that to me seems like you know, I think the 0:03:57.924 --> 0:03:59.764 world will be better off if people spent more time 0:03:59.804 --> 0:04:02.484 betting and less time trolling on Twitter. 0:04:02.844 --> 0:04:05.324 Absolutely, I think that there should be a bullshit tax, 0:04:06.484 --> 0:04:10.124 for sure. And just so that the the audience is 0:04:10.204 --> 0:04:12.404 up to date, this is not the first time you've 0:04:12.404 --> 0:04:16.804 been challenged. To date, not a single person has actually 0:04:16.924 --> 0:04:20.764 taken you up on your Nobody ever, actually, nobody has 0:04:20.884 --> 0:04:23.884 goes through Yeah, nobody has Heath ever done. 0:04:24.084 --> 0:04:25.804 To a further step than most people do, right, So 0:04:25.924 --> 0:04:28.004 give them credit for that. But like, but yeah, they 0:04:28.044 --> 0:04:31.124 almost always back down because if I'm making a bet, 0:04:31.164 --> 0:04:34.804 they're typically carefully. I'm not trying to eke out you know, 0:04:34.964 --> 0:04:38.404 one or two percent ev bets right, in part because 0:04:38.404 --> 0:04:40.564 I have a lot on the line anyway as far 0:04:40.604 --> 0:04:43.924 as the election goes, right, So I'm not trying to like, 0:04:43.964 --> 0:04:46.844 but if you're gonna give me a seventy five twenty 0:04:46.844 --> 0:04:49.284 five coin flip for one hundred K then I feel 0:04:49.284 --> 0:04:51.764 like I would be negligent to pass up on that. 0:04:52.444 --> 0:04:56.044 Yeah, absolutely, So you know, tune in and uh and 0:04:56.124 --> 0:05:01.404 we'll we'll see how that goes. But the news for 0:05:01.564 --> 0:05:04.444 people who do want to make bets like this not 0:05:04.684 --> 0:05:09.044 on Twitter with Nate Silver, but in general on elections. 0:05:09.484 --> 0:05:12.684 We talked a few weeks ago about Calshi, which is 0:05:13.204 --> 0:05:18.164 a prediction market that actually operates within the United States 0:05:18.604 --> 0:05:23.364 real money bets and Calshie had been trying to for 0:05:23.604 --> 0:05:27.764 years basically make their way through the US court system 0:05:27.924 --> 0:05:30.964 to make election betting legal in the United States, to 0:05:30.964 --> 0:05:35.124 make those contracts legal here, and they had prevailed, and 0:05:35.164 --> 0:05:39.364 then the order was frozen, right, so their options on 0:05:39.404 --> 0:05:42.564 the election went live for a few hours and then 0:05:43.084 --> 0:05:47.524 they were no longer allowed to continue while the Court 0:05:47.524 --> 0:05:51.444 of Appeals reviewed this, and they have now ruled in 0:05:51.524 --> 0:05:56.044 favor of Calshie, and so people in the United States 0:05:56.044 --> 0:05:59.164 are once again allowed to bet on election outcomes. I 0:05:59.164 --> 0:06:02.564 actually got a very funny email from Interactive Brokers, which 0:06:02.604 --> 0:06:07.204 is an online trading platform on which I happened to 0:06:07.244 --> 0:06:12.164 have my retirement account, and they sent an email to 0:06:12.164 --> 0:06:16.044 everyone saying, hey, guys, like you can now bet on 0:06:16.124 --> 0:06:18.924 all of these election things we're going live, So it's 0:06:18.924 --> 0:06:21.804 something that immediately it seems like a lot of platforms 0:06:21.844 --> 0:06:24.284 were ready for this and are really excited to start 0:06:24.284 --> 0:06:27.204 taking these sorts of bets. But we actually had some 0:06:27.324 --> 0:06:29.604 listeners who were interested in our takes on a few 0:06:29.604 --> 0:06:33.324 different bet ideas. So one listener, David Paul, wrote in 0:06:33.364 --> 0:06:36.284 and asked, would we bet that twenty twenty four voter 0:06:36.404 --> 0:06:39.564 turnout will be higher or lower than in twenty twenty 0:06:39.924 --> 0:06:42.004 and why? And I thought that that was actually kind 0:06:42.004 --> 0:06:47.004 of an interesting bet proposition because you and I have 0:06:47.084 --> 0:06:49.924 discussed this a little bit in terms of how close 0:06:49.964 --> 0:06:54.084 an election is perceived to be and what the turnout 0:06:54.284 --> 0:06:56.484 is as a result of that, and also obviously how 0:06:56.524 --> 0:07:01.164 passionate people are and how engaged people are, right, and 0:07:01.444 --> 0:07:04.404 different different subsets of the population are more likely to 0:07:04.524 --> 0:07:07.804 actually go out and vote with their feet at the 0:07:07.804 --> 0:07:12.284 polls as opposed to vote on Twitter talk about how 0:07:12.324 --> 0:07:14.444 you know one candidate or the other, but then they 0:07:14.444 --> 0:07:16.324 don't actually go and cast a ballot. So what do 0:07:16.364 --> 0:07:17.804 we think about this? What do you think about this? 0:07:18.244 --> 0:07:21.164 Well, let me ask an important question. Are we talking 0:07:21.204 --> 0:07:24.004 about the raw number of voters or the share of 0:07:24.044 --> 0:07:26.404 the eligible voting population, I don't know. 0:07:27.244 --> 0:07:30.764 Let's let's let's discuss because because I actually don't know 0:07:30.804 --> 0:07:34.284 what has happened with voter registration. Has that gone up 0:07:34.324 --> 0:07:36.724 with you know, Taitay's endorsement and all of that. Are 0:07:36.724 --> 0:07:41.484 we actually seeing a much larger number of voter registrations 0:07:41.484 --> 0:07:42.604 than we saw four years ago? 0:07:43.644 --> 0:07:45.404 Look, so, first of all, I would probably bet on 0:07:45.764 --> 0:07:49.364 turn up being a bit lower than in twenty twenty, 0:07:49.484 --> 0:07:53.604 especially with you know, if you are accounting for population growth, 0:07:53.644 --> 0:07:55.004 then it might be kind of a tass up. But 0:07:55.044 --> 0:07:56.684 if you're looking at the share of the population in 0:07:56.684 --> 0:07:59.684 part because like twenty twenty was a bit of an outlier, 0:07:59.844 --> 0:08:03.324 sixty six percent of eligible voters cast ballots. That was 0:08:03.404 --> 0:08:06.164 up from sixty percent in twenty sixteen and fifty nine 0:08:06.204 --> 0:08:08.644 percent in twenty twelve. And this is data from the 0:08:08.724 --> 0:08:11.964 University of floor or as Election Lab website. But we 0:08:12.004 --> 0:08:13.964 have had an increase, is you know? So turnout in 0:08:13.964 --> 0:08:17.524 the twenty twenty two midterm was forty six percent, which 0:08:17.524 --> 0:08:20.084 is high for a midterm, but down from twenty eighteen. Right, 0:08:21.204 --> 0:08:23.964 you know, when it was Biden versus Trump, people were 0:08:23.964 --> 0:08:28.244 distinctly unenthusiastic about this selection. With the events of the 0:08:28.324 --> 0:08:31.364 summer with Harris taking over for Biden, then there's more 0:08:31.444 --> 0:08:34.524 enthusiasm now. But but you know, twenty twenty turnout was 0:08:34.524 --> 0:08:36.364 really high, in part because it's a pandemic. There were 0:08:36.364 --> 0:08:37.884 more ways to vote than ever before. And I would 0:08:37.924 --> 0:08:41.204 vote on I know, sixty three percent of the voting 0:08:41.204 --> 0:08:42.844 eligible population instead of sixty. 0:08:42.604 --> 0:08:47.524 Six I suppose, so you would put your money on 0:08:47.524 --> 0:08:50.444 on lower turnout. And to be clear, we're not actually 0:08:50.524 --> 0:08:52.404 making a bet, We're not actually putting money on the 0:08:52.404 --> 0:08:54.684 line because this is not a topic that either one 0:08:54.684 --> 0:08:57.844 of us has probably a lot of conviction. And do 0:08:57.884 --> 0:08:58.164 you have to. 0:08:58.404 --> 0:09:01.484 Actually have a model. So the model predicts, oh, there 0:09:01.524 --> 0:09:04.484 we go, one hundred and fifty six million, six hundred 0:09:04.484 --> 0:09:06.964 and eighty five thousand, six hundred and eighty people exactly 0:09:07.084 --> 0:09:13.804 will vote. Okay, I obviously it's fake precision. Let me see, uh, 0:09:13.924 --> 0:09:18.444 let me see what the numbers were in twenty twenty. 0:09:18.324 --> 0:09:23.044 They say one hundred and fifty eight uh point four 0:09:23.044 --> 0:09:26.484 million people voted, and I'm predicting our mouths one fifty 0:09:26.524 --> 0:09:30.644 six point seven, so that would be off by just 0:09:30.684 --> 0:09:31.604 a million or two. 0:09:32.004 --> 0:09:35.524 Okay, but lower but lower. So so your your gut, 0:09:35.764 --> 0:09:39.244 your gut was correct, and now the silver bulletin model 0:09:39.524 --> 0:09:43.044 has validated your gut at least as of now. And 0:09:43.284 --> 0:09:45.324 these numbers might change right as you get more data. 0:09:46.524 --> 0:09:48.044 Yeah, no, I mean, so what we look at is 0:09:48.084 --> 0:09:51.804 polls asking people how enthusiastic they are about voting in 0:09:51.804 --> 0:09:57.044 the election, and people actually say they're pretty enthusiastic. However, 0:09:57.124 --> 0:09:59.084 turn out with just really high in twenty twenty, So 0:09:59.164 --> 0:10:02.324 until we see more confirmation of that than we're expecting 0:10:02.324 --> 0:10:03.244 some reversion to the mean. 0:10:04.004 --> 0:10:06.804 Great, well, if we're if we're going down that kind 0:10:06.844 --> 0:10:09.844 of Djen rabbit hole. I actually think it's in interesting 0:10:09.884 --> 0:10:12.644 because it does kind of touch on different pressure points 0:10:12.644 --> 0:10:15.884 of the election. So some other ideas, what's our over under, 0:10:16.164 --> 0:10:18.604 for one, major news outlets will actually call a winner. 0:10:18.844 --> 0:10:20.684 I think that's an interesting one because I don't think 0:10:20.684 --> 0:10:24.044 either one of us particularly feels like the election is 0:10:24.084 --> 0:10:26.804 going to be over on November fifth, given how close 0:10:26.844 --> 0:10:29.924 it is and given the the way elections have gone 0:10:29.964 --> 0:10:30.724 in recent years. 0:10:32.164 --> 0:10:35.404 Yeah, look, I mean the over under might be you know, 0:10:35.444 --> 0:10:40.084 November fifth is a Tuesday, maybe Saturday, excuse me, Thursday morning. 0:10:40.124 --> 0:10:42.324 The seventh. I mean keep in mind that, like the 0:10:42.364 --> 0:10:45.284 networks send to be really conservative about making these calls, 0:10:46.444 --> 0:10:49.204 except for Fox News, which weirdly called Arizona for Trump 0:10:49.244 --> 0:10:50.924 when it was great premature to do so. But leave 0:10:50.964 --> 0:10:53.924 that aside for a moment. Yeah, I remember doing in 0:10:53.964 --> 0:10:56.284 twenty twenty. I was kind of like like in the 0:10:56.284 --> 0:10:58.884 boiler room, it's during COVID doing like these are PEATV 0:10:59.004 --> 0:11:01.804 hits over and over for ABC News, and like the networks, 0:11:02.164 --> 0:11:06.364 it was obvious. I thought by like midday Wednesday that 0:11:06.444 --> 0:11:08.444 Biden was going to have enough past to victory, but 0:11:08.484 --> 0:11:12.244 the networks didn't call it until Saturday morning. But I 0:11:12.284 --> 0:11:13.684 don't mean to make light of this. I mean, like, 0:11:14.684 --> 0:11:18.964 you know, another disputed election outcome where Trump is sowing 0:11:19.004 --> 0:11:22.604 doubt about the results, that would not be great for 0:11:22.804 --> 0:11:26.604 the US. I think people are not quite pricing in, uh, 0:11:27.084 --> 0:11:28.724 what's going to feel like if you have it, if 0:11:28.764 --> 0:11:33.084 you have an unclear, ambiguous, disputed election result. 0:11:33.484 --> 0:11:36.844 Yeah. I mean, I'm actually hoping that we do get 0:11:37.324 --> 0:11:39.684 a winner announced on the fifth or you know, on 0:11:40.004 --> 0:11:42.844 early morning of the sixth. I hope that we do 0:11:42.924 --> 0:11:45.724 have a very clear cut election, because I think that 0:11:45.724 --> 0:11:48.844 that is something that we need because we have you know, 0:11:48.844 --> 0:11:50.764 we've had some close calls and we've had a number 0:11:50.764 --> 0:11:54.724 of disputed elections in recent memory. So so that's not 0:11:54.804 --> 0:11:57.484 necessarily a great place to be when you're looking at 0:11:58.324 --> 0:12:01.044 kind of when you're looking at democratic out outcomes and 0:12:01.084 --> 0:12:03.324 peaceful transitions of power. No. 0:12:03.444 --> 0:12:05.604 I mean, look, you don't need that much of a 0:12:05.604 --> 0:12:09.924 polling er to have a pretty clear all right, if 0:12:10.004 --> 0:12:12.044 Trump beats his polls by three points, then he wins 0:12:12.044 --> 0:12:14.924 all the swing states. Likewise, for Harris, you could even 0:12:14.964 --> 0:12:17.004 win Florida, which was a source of dispute with Keith 0:12:17.244 --> 0:12:23.404 or boy. So, yeah, you know, on what other prep 0:12:23.404 --> 0:12:24.564 bets do we have? Yeah? 0:12:24.644 --> 0:12:27.684 So, so there were a few others. One was in 0:12:27.724 --> 0:12:30.724 which of the swing states will polling to be turned 0:12:30.764 --> 0:12:32.604 out to be the most accurate and in which will 0:12:32.604 --> 0:12:35.564 it be the least accurate? So do you have as 0:12:35.644 --> 0:12:39.124 ours our pole guru, do you have a sense of 0:12:39.124 --> 0:12:40.404 how the polls are doing this year? 0:12:41.844 --> 0:12:44.564 I mean, maybe Georgia for most accurate. The polls have 0:12:44.604 --> 0:12:47.004 tended to be pretty accurate in Georgia in the past. 0:12:47.004 --> 0:12:50.324 And also like like in Georgia, like you kind of 0:12:50.324 --> 0:12:52.044 know everyone's going to vote, right, you have like the 0:12:52.124 --> 0:12:55.564 evangelical whites, the African American population, and like you have 0:12:55.644 --> 0:12:57.644 the you know, suburban so it's not like it's just 0:12:57.644 --> 0:12:59.204 a matter of kind of racing to see who can 0:12:59.284 --> 0:13:02.444 get more turnout, and that tends to make the polling 0:13:02.484 --> 0:13:04.364 a little bit easier versus states where you have like 0:13:04.404 --> 0:13:07.924 a lot of swing voters. But I'll go with Georgia 0:13:07.964 --> 0:13:12.324 as the most accurate polling state. Do you have an opinion, Maria, No, I. 0:13:12.284 --> 0:13:15.404 Don't because I don't know. You know, I don't follow 0:13:15.484 --> 0:13:17.564 the polls as the way that you do. I just 0:13:17.604 --> 0:13:20.844 look at your outcomes, and I tend to trust you 0:13:20.924 --> 0:13:23.604 obviously when it comes to pulling red when it comes 0:13:23.644 --> 0:13:27.484 to reading the polls, so I just kind of look 0:13:27.564 --> 0:13:30.524 to see what the prevailing wisdom is. But I don't know, 0:13:30.644 --> 0:13:34.124 you know, I think that it's one thing to say, oh, 0:13:34.204 --> 0:13:37.004 you know, these are high quality polls, these are worse 0:13:37.084 --> 0:13:39.444 quality polls, you know, et cetera, et cetera. But I 0:13:39.444 --> 0:13:42.244 think it takes expertise that I, frankly do not have 0:13:42.644 --> 0:13:45.284 to be able to say how accurate is polling within 0:13:45.364 --> 0:13:45.804 a state. 0:13:46.164 --> 0:13:48.564 I'm so torn on deferring to X, you know, because 0:13:48.564 --> 0:13:51.364 I want to how your friends like Keith r who 0:13:51.404 --> 0:13:55.724 clearly is outside his depth in this particular enterprise. A 0:13:55.804 --> 0:13:58.444 lot of the time the experts are full of shit 0:13:58.524 --> 0:14:00.524 and the non experts if I'm more full of shit? Right, 0:14:00.724 --> 0:14:03.204 Life is hard. It's hard to make predictions about things. 0:14:03.324 --> 0:14:05.964 It is hard to make predictions. And let's do a 0:14:05.964 --> 0:14:08.324 shout out to the work of Phil Tetlock, who was 0:14:08.684 --> 0:14:11.324 one of the first people to show how hard it 0:14:11.404 --> 0:14:13.764 is to make predictions and how you know experts are 0:14:13.804 --> 0:14:17.804 also often wrong. And but if we can't actually I'm 0:14:17.804 --> 0:14:20.044 curious to hear the answer to this. If we can't 0:14:20.044 --> 0:14:23.364 defer to experts, then you know what, who do we 0:14:23.404 --> 0:14:26.084 defer to? I mean, there's obviously, you know, going back 0:14:26.204 --> 0:14:30.404 to what we started off with, you know, with prediction 0:14:30.564 --> 0:14:33.484 markets and places like cal shan As. We know you're 0:14:34.564 --> 0:14:37.964 paid advisor for polymarket. I just I hate having to 0:14:38.044 --> 0:14:41.884 throw that disclaimer out every single time, but but I 0:14:41.884 --> 0:14:43.804 think we do have to throw it at every single time. 0:14:44.044 --> 0:14:47.524 Our prediction markets a better place, Like what do we 0:14:47.604 --> 0:14:49.404 defer to? Then if we can't, if we say, like 0:14:49.804 --> 0:14:51.964 you know, you can't really defer to experts, how do 0:14:52.004 --> 0:14:53.604 you figure out you know, how do I form an 0:14:53.604 --> 0:14:54.164 opinion on this. 0:14:55.324 --> 0:14:57.884 Yeah, look, obviously my fan of prediction markets. I think 0:14:57.924 --> 0:15:00.364 I think one of if you read Phil Telllock's book 0:15:00.364 --> 0:15:03.204 that you reference, We're Expert Political judgment. I mean, you 0:15:03.204 --> 0:15:07.604 know that actually forced experts to make probabilistic predictions, right, 0:15:07.684 --> 0:15:09.884 Like what's the chance that the USSR will break up 0:15:10.364 --> 0:15:11.804 in the next ten years might have been a question 0:15:11.884 --> 0:15:15.244 that he asked. For example, when you encourage people to 0:15:15.244 --> 0:15:17.804 do that, then you actually create more accountability, You create 0:15:17.804 --> 0:15:20.964 a paper trail because the most part like experts don't 0:15:20.964 --> 0:15:25.084 actually have incentives to make accurate predictions, you know what 0:15:25.164 --> 0:15:28.004 I mean, they have incentives to be ambiguous so they 0:15:28.044 --> 0:15:30.924 can't be proven wrong. And so you know, stuff like 0:15:30.964 --> 0:15:34.084 what we do at Silver Bulletin is actually quite unusual, 0:15:34.764 --> 0:15:36.804 and if experts were forced to come up with actual 0:15:36.804 --> 0:15:39.364 answers then they would do they would potentially be a 0:15:39.364 --> 0:15:41.244 little bit better, although I think we'd also expose people 0:15:41.244 --> 0:15:42.804 who are not very vigorous in their thinking. 0:15:43.524 --> 0:15:45.764 Yeah, so then maybe we would be able to have 0:15:45.844 --> 0:15:48.164 kind of a hierarchy of expertise, which I think is 0:15:48.164 --> 0:15:52.364 something that is very would be very very helpful, at 0:15:52.444 --> 0:15:55.764 least to someone like me the other thing that happened 0:15:56.124 --> 0:15:58.444 in the news, kind of putting our little prop bets aside. 0:15:58.564 --> 0:16:01.724 Obviously we had the VP debates since you and I 0:16:02.124 --> 0:16:05.204 last spoke. Did that make any difference whatsoever? I know 0:16:05.244 --> 0:16:07.284 you've said over and over and over that you know, 0:16:07.364 --> 0:16:10.924 the VP debates don't really matter, piece don't usually matter. 0:16:12.204 --> 0:16:14.484 Have we seen them matter at all in the last 0:16:14.524 --> 0:16:15.684 week or no change. 0:16:15.924 --> 0:16:19.364 There's been oddly little polling of any kind. I think 0:16:19.404 --> 0:16:21.484 the polsearch just all decided to take the weekend off. 0:16:22.924 --> 0:16:24.884 I don't know, man, you can let me say something 0:16:24.884 --> 0:16:28.284 that will get clipped onto the Twitter, right, Like, I'm 0:16:28.324 --> 0:16:33.644 not into Tim Walls really, I mean he's fine, but like, uh, 0:16:34.164 --> 0:16:37.004 you know, first of all, there's all this discussion about like, oh, 0:16:37.044 --> 0:16:39.364 you don't want to the term sain washing. It's like, oh, 0:16:39.364 --> 0:16:41.284 you don't want to make Trump Advance seem insane, and 0:16:41.324 --> 0:16:44.844 he's like he's doing this whole nice guy thing. And 0:16:45.204 --> 0:16:48.484 I think Vance is just objectively like a better debater 0:16:48.604 --> 0:16:51.764 than Tim Walls. And Tim Walls was obviously extremely nervous 0:16:51.804 --> 0:16:54.404 for the first fifteen minutes of the debate, which is 0:16:54.404 --> 0:16:56.204 a part that people often remember, like it won't matter 0:16:56.244 --> 0:16:57.724 I don't think very much of the end. The polls 0:16:57.764 --> 0:17:00.644 showed that people thought the debate was a tie basically, 0:17:01.764 --> 0:17:03.124 but I don't know, you know, it's kind of you 0:17:03.164 --> 0:17:08.444 have your one job thing and you should really nail 0:17:08.524 --> 0:17:11.084 that debate. And he I think it was tactically not 0:17:11.244 --> 0:17:14.444 very good at going after JD. Vance and I'm I'm 0:17:14.444 --> 0:17:17.764 just not into it. I don't really understand, you know what. 0:17:17.804 --> 0:17:23.084 There's like feeling of euphoria after Harris replaced Biden, and 0:17:23.124 --> 0:17:25.764 I think people therefore overrated everything she did in that 0:17:25.804 --> 0:17:27.724 period after that. And if it were me, I would 0:17:27.804 --> 0:17:31.484 rather have, say, the extremely popular governor Pennsylvania, which is 0:17:32.084 --> 0:17:34.364 the most important tipping point of the state. 0:17:35.204 --> 0:17:39.164 Yeah, well, let's see what ends up happening, and after 0:17:39.204 --> 0:17:42.444 the break, we'll talk about betting on something else, which 0:17:42.484 --> 0:18:02.204 is betting on cards and poker bots. Nate, if I 0:18:02.244 --> 0:18:08.324 remember correctly, way back when you made a living professionally 0:18:08.524 --> 0:18:13.084 playing poker online playing limit hold him? Is that correct? 0:18:13.644 --> 0:18:17.684 That's correct? For preire to two for three years, I 0:18:17.684 --> 0:18:20.164 guess three years. Yeah, my main source of income was 0:18:20.164 --> 0:18:22.524 playing fricking party poker. 0:18:24.004 --> 0:18:27.324 And when was this let's put it on a timeline. 0:18:27.444 --> 0:18:29.604 It's two thousand and four to two thousand and six, 0:18:29.724 --> 0:18:31.844 and then then I had a year where let's not 0:18:31.804 --> 0:18:34.404 tell them, but I actually lost money in two thousand 0:18:34.404 --> 0:18:37.244 and seven after the game's cut. So the US Congress 0:18:37.284 --> 0:18:39.484 passed a bill called the U I G E A 0:18:39.884 --> 0:18:43.204 EUG U G. Yeah, and once that happened, the game 0:18:43.284 --> 0:18:47.524 started to dry up and Party Poker closed. And but anyway, yeah, 0:18:47.524 --> 0:18:50.564 I'm actually I was able to change my whole career 0:18:51.244 --> 0:18:53.084 by playing online poker basically. 0:18:53.524 --> 0:18:56.684 Okay, So the reason that I asked about this is 0:18:57.524 --> 0:19:02.604 this past week, we've had several blockbuster investigation pieces come 0:19:02.604 --> 0:19:08.044 out about bots in online poker and bots as kind 0:19:08.044 --> 0:19:11.364 of an existential three to the game. So the first 0:19:11.364 --> 0:19:14.524 of these came out on September twentieth, and it was 0:19:14.564 --> 0:19:17.764 a piece by kit Chilo, who has been doing this 0:19:19.004 --> 0:19:24.484 deep dive investigation into a massive, massive Russian bought. He 0:19:24.564 --> 0:19:27.324 calls it an army. So usually in the online poker 0:19:27.364 --> 0:19:30.364 world we talk about bot farms, but when you read 0:19:30.404 --> 0:19:33.764 this piece, you realize that, holy shit, army might actually 0:19:33.804 --> 0:19:38.484 be a legitimate way to look at this. So he 0:19:38.964 --> 0:19:42.964 had kind of found a few breadcrumbs that then led 0:19:43.044 --> 0:19:46.684 him to poker forms to people who actually were involved 0:19:46.764 --> 0:19:50.964 in this bot operation. And it turns out that this group, 0:19:51.044 --> 0:19:54.324 originally this group of students, then it grew much bigger, 0:19:55.604 --> 0:20:00.044 is working, you know, in the depths of Siberia, and 0:20:00.084 --> 0:20:03.884 these are stats nerds, college students who need extra income 0:20:04.364 --> 0:20:07.044 and they want to get better at poker, at online poker, 0:20:07.324 --> 0:20:10.524 and so they start kind of playing around with basically 0:20:10.604 --> 0:20:13.564 what you know today we'd call solver software. Then they 0:20:13.564 --> 0:20:16.284 start developing little bots to try to implement some of 0:20:16.324 --> 0:20:21.484 these ideas. Fast forward to kind of the capabilities that 0:20:21.524 --> 0:20:25.564 these bots can actually be deployed onto poker platforms, and 0:20:26.364 --> 0:20:30.004 these bots start being used and start winning money on 0:20:30.004 --> 0:20:34.564 online poker sites in great numbers. And then it turns 0:20:34.604 --> 0:20:38.204 out that some online poker sites might even be deploying 0:20:38.244 --> 0:20:43.004 bots themselves in order to generate artificially larger player pools, 0:20:43.124 --> 0:20:45.364 because if you're an online poker site, you don't particularly 0:20:45.404 --> 0:20:47.404 care if the person playing the rag is a little 0:20:47.444 --> 0:20:50.564 bot or a human as long as you get the money. 0:20:50.964 --> 0:20:54.484 And so then after this Bloomberg piece came out, a 0:20:54.564 --> 0:20:59.884 second piece came out by Jonathan Robb and he investigated 0:20:59.924 --> 0:21:03.844 further and actually named names of some online poker companies. Anyway, 0:21:03.964 --> 0:21:06.084 this is a very long introduction, so we'll talk more 0:21:06.084 --> 0:21:09.804 about this later, but it seems like we see quite 0:21:09.844 --> 0:21:12.884 the existential threat to online poker and to players and 0:21:12.924 --> 0:21:15.924 it like yourself who look at online poker as a 0:21:15.964 --> 0:21:18.964 way of making money. So what what do you think? 0:21:19.004 --> 0:21:21.924 You know, have you been following this poker BT explosion 0:21:22.044 --> 0:21:24.924 at all and have you given any thought to kind 0:21:24.964 --> 0:21:26.684 of the state of online poker play. 0:21:27.884 --> 0:21:30.484 I mean, first of all, I don't look at online 0:21:30.484 --> 0:21:33.484 poker as a way to make money. I look at 0:21:33.524 --> 0:21:38.004 it as a form of recreation, I suppose, because like 0:21:40.004 --> 0:21:44.364 to me, it seems like a somewhat unsolvable problem that 0:21:44.404 --> 0:21:48.524 you have solvers now that can that can give you 0:21:48.564 --> 0:21:51.564 a game theory optimal solution to a poker hand, never 0:21:51.564 --> 0:21:56.404 mind anything more advanced about like doing data mining particular opponents. 0:21:56.884 --> 0:21:58.644 You know, to me, unless you're interested when you're actually 0:21:58.684 --> 0:22:03.124 having somebody like physically on a camera or something. Then 0:22:04.324 --> 0:22:08.044 you know, combined with the fact that, like as it 0:22:08.044 --> 0:22:10.564 says the Bloomberg article, it's kind of a Darwinian struggle 0:22:11.244 --> 0:22:14.604 to begin with online poker, right, people are already playing 0:22:14.604 --> 0:22:17.604