1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:27,724 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, our show about making 2 00:00:27,764 --> 00:00:30,164 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 3 00:00:29,844 --> 00:00:32,284 Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. Today on the show will be 4 00:00:32,324 --> 00:00:35,604 Speaker 2: giving you a degenerate gambler's guide to the election, including 5 00:00:35,604 --> 00:00:38,604 Speaker 2: a big proposed election bet which has not been reciprocated yet. 6 00:00:39,804 --> 00:00:42,404 Speaker 1: After that, we're going to talk about the threat of 7 00:00:42,724 --> 00:00:46,404 Speaker 1: pots and automation to one of the things that Nate 8 00:00:46,484 --> 00:00:49,284 Speaker 1: and I hold dear to our hearts, poker and online 9 00:00:49,324 --> 00:00:51,324 Speaker 1: poker specifically, and then. 10 00:00:51,164 --> 00:00:55,604 Speaker 2: We'll re evaluate p doom, the probability of severe misalignment 11 00:00:55,644 --> 00:00:59,684 Speaker 2: from artificial intelligence in light of recent news at Open AI. 12 00:01:05,484 --> 00:01:07,084 Speaker 2: This is a good episode, Maria. I feel like we 13 00:01:07,204 --> 00:01:09,804 Speaker 2: were kind of hitting all the basic angles today. 14 00:01:10,324 --> 00:01:12,964 Speaker 1: I feel like we are too, so so let's uh, 15 00:01:13,044 --> 00:01:17,324 Speaker 1: let's get it started. Nate, I couldn't help but notice 16 00:01:17,884 --> 00:01:22,404 Speaker 1: a recent exchange on Twitter that you that you engaged in, 17 00:01:23,044 --> 00:01:27,684 Speaker 1: As so often happens, your views on Twitter were challenged. 18 00:01:27,764 --> 00:01:29,804 Speaker 1: I know this is this comes as a shock to 19 00:01:29,844 --> 00:01:32,644 Speaker 1: everyone every time I hear it. You know, people don't 20 00:01:32,644 --> 00:01:37,684 Speaker 1: always agree with you, and this particular challenge was about 21 00:01:37,684 --> 00:01:42,164 Speaker 1: Florida right and about the likelihood what percentage by what 22 00:01:42,284 --> 00:01:45,444 Speaker 1: percent Trump was going to carry Florida. So do you 23 00:01:45,484 --> 00:01:46,924 Speaker 1: want to do you want to talk us through a 24 00:01:46,964 --> 00:01:50,684 Speaker 1: little bit what happened and why we're why we're starting 25 00:01:50,724 --> 00:01:53,684 Speaker 1: our show with this particular Twitter exchange. 26 00:01:53,884 --> 00:01:57,244 Speaker 2: Yeah. So we published an article at Silver Bulletin late 27 00:01:57,324 --> 00:02:00,964 Speaker 2: last week pointing out that that Florida's kind of close 28 00:02:01,004 --> 00:02:02,844 Speaker 2: in the polls, Harris is down by about three and 29 00:02:02,844 --> 00:02:06,884 Speaker 2: a half points, similar to Trump's margin of victory in 30 00:02:06,924 --> 00:02:10,924 Speaker 2: twenty twenty, and that maybe the Harris campaign, you have 31 00:02:10,964 --> 00:02:14,244 Speaker 2: infinite money, it's worth actually investing in the Sunshine State. 32 00:02:15,924 --> 00:02:20,924 Speaker 2: The American investor Keith Erboy, He's like, you're an idiot. 33 00:02:21,004 --> 00:02:23,404 Speaker 2: Trump's gonna win Florida by This is not the literal 34 00:02:23,524 --> 00:02:26,204 Speaker 2: verbatim version, right, You're an idiot. Trump's gonna win Florida 35 00:02:26,244 --> 00:02:28,324 Speaker 2: by at least eight points, if not ten or twelve. 36 00:02:29,044 --> 00:02:30,724 Speaker 2: And I'm like, okay, bro, how much are you willing to, like, 37 00:02:30,724 --> 00:02:34,004 Speaker 2: actually wager on this? And he says one hundred K, 38 00:02:34,124 --> 00:02:37,364 Speaker 2: which seems like a seemed like a good amount to me. Right, 39 00:02:37,404 --> 00:02:40,284 Speaker 2: it's a serious it's a serious adult bet. And by 40 00:02:40,284 --> 00:02:42,044 Speaker 2: the way, there's a chance that Trump will win Florida 41 00:02:42,084 --> 00:02:45,244 Speaker 2: by eight points or more if you look at polymarket, 42 00:02:45,244 --> 00:02:47,244 Speaker 2: about twenty five percent. But I'm willing to take one 43 00:02:47,284 --> 00:02:50,364 Speaker 2: hundred k bet where I win seventy factions of the time. 44 00:02:50,484 --> 00:02:53,284 Speaker 2: And so I said, okay, you got to send me 45 00:02:53,324 --> 00:02:55,644 Speaker 2: a contract though, because you've been sketchy lately, and I 46 00:02:55,644 --> 00:02:59,524 Speaker 2: don't really you know, he's not like a known I mean, ironically, 47 00:02:59,684 --> 00:03:03,164 Speaker 2: like known gamblers are like more reliable for payout stuff, right, 48 00:03:03,164 --> 00:03:04,804 Speaker 2: But I don't want him saying like, oh, the election 49 00:03:04,924 --> 00:03:08,604 Speaker 2: was stolen. I don't want him saying, oh haha, I 50 00:03:08,644 --> 00:03:11,324 Speaker 2: was just joking. So need some type of third party 51 00:03:11,364 --> 00:03:14,524 Speaker 2: to step in and create a contract or at least 52 00:03:14,524 --> 00:03:18,684 Speaker 2: create an obligation expectation. So far that has not happened. 53 00:03:18,844 --> 00:03:22,884 Speaker 2: We had a little bit of negotiations by back channel email. 54 00:03:22,924 --> 00:03:25,124 Speaker 2: The mutual friend said I'm willing to do this and 55 00:03:25,164 --> 00:03:29,884 Speaker 2: then and mister Riboy has not replied yet, so I'm 56 00:03:29,884 --> 00:03:32,524 Speaker 2: not sure kind of how much more time I want 57 00:03:32,524 --> 00:03:35,164 Speaker 2: to give my I don't like giving people free options, right. 58 00:03:36,524 --> 00:03:37,804 Speaker 2: You know, if there's a poll that comes out this 59 00:03:37,844 --> 00:03:39,684 Speaker 2: week showing Trump way up in Florida, then all of 60 00:03:39,684 --> 00:03:42,604 Speaker 2: a sudden, his bet becomes not plus TV but better, 61 00:03:42,684 --> 00:03:45,724 Speaker 2: but Yeah, So anyway, I think this is an honorable 62 00:03:45,764 --> 00:03:49,124 Speaker 2: way to resolve differences, right that if you actually have 63 00:03:49,164 --> 00:03:52,524 Speaker 2: to pay a tax for your bullshit on Twitter, right, 64 00:03:52,604 --> 00:03:54,764 Speaker 2: seventy five percent chance of losing one hundred K, then 65 00:03:54,804 --> 00:03:57,884 Speaker 2: that to me seems like you know, I think the 66 00:03:57,924 --> 00:03:59,764 Speaker 2: world will be better off if people spent more time 67 00:03:59,804 --> 00:04:02,484 Speaker 2: betting and less time trolling on Twitter. 68 00:04:02,844 --> 00:04:05,324 Speaker 1: Absolutely, I think that there should be a bullshit tax, 69 00:04:06,484 --> 00:04:10,124 Speaker 1: for sure. And just so that the the audience is 70 00:04:10,204 --> 00:04:12,404 Speaker 1: up to date, this is not the first time you've 71 00:04:12,404 --> 00:04:16,804 Speaker 1: been challenged. To date, not a single person has actually 72 00:04:16,924 --> 00:04:20,764 Speaker 1: taken you up on your Nobody ever, actually, nobody has 73 00:04:20,884 --> 00:04:23,884 Speaker 1: goes through Yeah, nobody has Heath ever done. 74 00:04:24,084 --> 00:04:25,804 Speaker 2: To a further step than most people do, right, So 75 00:04:25,924 --> 00:04:28,004 Speaker 2: give them credit for that. But like, but yeah, they 76 00:04:28,044 --> 00:04:31,124 Speaker 2: almost always back down because if I'm making a bet, 77 00:04:31,164 --> 00:04:34,804 Speaker 2: they're typically carefully. I'm not trying to eke out you know, 78 00:04:34,964 --> 00:04:38,404 Speaker 2: one or two percent ev bets right, in part because 79 00:04:38,404 --> 00:04:40,564 Speaker 2: I have a lot on the line anyway as far 80 00:04:40,604 --> 00:04:43,924 Speaker 2: as the election goes, right, So I'm not trying to like, 81 00:04:43,964 --> 00:04:46,844 Speaker 2: but if you're gonna give me a seventy five twenty 82 00:04:46,844 --> 00:04:49,284 Speaker 2: five coin flip for one hundred K then I feel 83 00:04:49,284 --> 00:04:51,764 Speaker 2: like I would be negligent to pass up on that. 84 00:04:52,444 --> 00:04:56,044 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, So you know, tune in and uh and 85 00:04:56,124 --> 00:05:01,404 Speaker 1: we'll we'll see how that goes. But the news for 86 00:05:01,564 --> 00:05:04,444 Speaker 1: people who do want to make bets like this not 87 00:05:04,684 --> 00:05:09,044 Speaker 1: on Twitter with Nate Silver, but in general on elections. 88 00:05:09,484 --> 00:05:12,684 Speaker 1: We talked a few weeks ago about Calshi, which is 89 00:05:13,204 --> 00:05:18,164 Speaker 1: a prediction market that actually operates within the United States 90 00:05:18,604 --> 00:05:23,364 Speaker 1: real money bets and Calshie had been trying to for 91 00:05:23,604 --> 00:05:27,764 Speaker 1: years basically make their way through the US court system 92 00:05:27,924 --> 00:05:30,964 Speaker 1: to make election betting legal in the United States, to 93 00:05:30,964 --> 00:05:35,124 Speaker 1: make those contracts legal here, and they had prevailed, and 94 00:05:35,164 --> 00:05:39,364 Speaker 1: then the order was frozen, right, so their options on 95 00:05:39,404 --> 00:05:42,564 Speaker 1: the election went live for a few hours and then 96 00:05:43,084 --> 00:05:47,524 Speaker 1: they were no longer allowed to continue while the Court 97 00:05:47,524 --> 00:05:51,444 Speaker 1: of Appeals reviewed this, and they have now ruled in 98 00:05:51,524 --> 00:05:56,044 Speaker 1: favor of Calshie, and so people in the United States 99 00:05:56,044 --> 00:05:59,164 Speaker 1: are once again allowed to bet on election outcomes. I 100 00:05:59,164 --> 00:06:02,564 Speaker 1: actually got a very funny email from Interactive Brokers, which 101 00:06:02,604 --> 00:06:07,204 Speaker 1: is an online trading platform on which I happened to 102 00:06:07,244 --> 00:06:12,164 Speaker 1: have my retirement account, and they sent an email to 103 00:06:12,164 --> 00:06:16,044 Speaker 1: everyone saying, hey, guys, like you can now bet on 104 00:06:16,124 --> 00:06:18,924 Speaker 1: all of these election things we're going live, So it's 105 00:06:18,924 --> 00:06:21,804 Speaker 1: something that immediately it seems like a lot of platforms 106 00:06:21,844 --> 00:06:24,284 Speaker 1: were ready for this and are really excited to start 107 00:06:24,284 --> 00:06:27,204 Speaker 1: taking these sorts of bets. But we actually had some 108 00:06:27,324 --> 00:06:29,604 Speaker 1: listeners who were interested in our takes on a few 109 00:06:29,604 --> 00:06:33,324 Speaker 1: different bet ideas. So one listener, David Paul, wrote in 110 00:06:33,364 --> 00:06:36,284 Speaker 1: and asked, would we bet that twenty twenty four voter 111 00:06:36,404 --> 00:06:39,564 Speaker 1: turnout will be higher or lower than in twenty twenty 112 00:06:39,924 --> 00:06:42,004 Speaker 1: and why? And I thought that that was actually kind 113 00:06:42,004 --> 00:06:47,004 Speaker 1: of an interesting bet proposition because you and I have 114 00:06:47,084 --> 00:06:49,924 Speaker 1: discussed this a little bit in terms of how close 115 00:06:49,964 --> 00:06:54,084 Speaker 1: an election is perceived to be and what the turnout 116 00:06:54,284 --> 00:06:56,484 Speaker 1: is as a result of that, and also obviously how 117 00:06:56,524 --> 00:07:01,164 Speaker 1: passionate people are and how engaged people are, right, and 118 00:07:01,444 --> 00:07:04,404 Speaker 1: different different subsets of the population are more likely to 119 00:07:04,524 --> 00:07:07,804 Speaker 1: actually go out and vote with their feet at the 120 00:07:07,804 --> 00:07:12,284 Speaker 1: polls as opposed to vote on Twitter talk about how 121 00:07:12,324 --> 00:07:14,444 Speaker 1: you know one candidate or the other, but then they 122 00:07:14,444 --> 00:07:16,324 Speaker 1: don't actually go and cast a ballot. So what do 123 00:07:16,364 --> 00:07:17,804 Speaker 1: we think about this? What do you think about this? 124 00:07:18,244 --> 00:07:21,164 Speaker 2: Well, let me ask an important question. Are we talking 125 00:07:21,204 --> 00:07:24,004 Speaker 2: about the raw number of voters or the share of 126 00:07:24,044 --> 00:07:26,404 Speaker 2: the eligible voting population, I don't know. 127 00:07:27,244 --> 00:07:30,764 Speaker 1: Let's let's let's discuss because because I actually don't know 128 00:07:30,804 --> 00:07:34,284 Speaker 1: what has happened with voter registration. Has that gone up 129 00:07:34,324 --> 00:07:36,724 Speaker 1: with you know, Taitay's endorsement and all of that. Are 130 00:07:36,724 --> 00:07:41,484 Speaker 1: we actually seeing a much larger number of voter registrations 131 00:07:41,484 --> 00:07:42,604 Speaker 1: than we saw four years ago? 132 00:07:43,644 --> 00:07:45,404 Speaker 2: Look, so, first of all, I would probably bet on 133 00:07:45,764 --> 00:07:49,364 Speaker 2: turn up being a bit lower than in twenty twenty, 134 00:07:49,484 --> 00:07:53,604 Speaker 2: especially with you know, if you are accounting for population growth, 135 00:07:53,644 --> 00:07:55,004 Speaker 2: then it might be kind of a tass up. But 136 00:07:55,044 --> 00:07:56,684 Speaker 2: if you're looking at the share of the population in 137 00:07:56,684 --> 00:07:59,684 Speaker 2: part because like twenty twenty was a bit of an outlier, 138 00:07:59,844 --> 00:08:03,324 Speaker 2: sixty six percent of eligible voters cast ballots. That was 139 00:08:03,404 --> 00:08:06,164 Speaker 2: up from sixty percent in twenty sixteen and fifty nine 140 00:08:06,204 --> 00:08:08,644 Speaker 2: percent in twenty twelve. And this is data from the 141 00:08:08,724 --> 00:08:11,964 Speaker 2: University of floor or as Election Lab website. But we 142 00:08:12,004 --> 00:08:13,964 Speaker 2: have had an increase, is you know? So turnout in 143 00:08:13,964 --> 00:08:17,524 Speaker 2: the twenty twenty two midterm was forty six percent, which 144 00:08:17,524 --> 00:08:20,084 Speaker 2: is high for a midterm, but down from twenty eighteen. Right, 145 00:08:21,204 --> 00:08:23,964 Speaker 2: you know, when it was Biden versus Trump, people were 146 00:08:23,964 --> 00:08:28,244 Speaker 2: distinctly unenthusiastic about this selection. With the events of the 147 00:08:28,324 --> 00:08:31,364 Speaker 2: summer with Harris taking over for Biden, then there's more 148 00:08:31,444 --> 00:08:34,524 Speaker 2: enthusiasm now. But but you know, twenty twenty turnout was 149 00:08:34,524 --> 00:08:36,364 Speaker 2: really high, in part because it's a pandemic. There were 150 00:08:36,364 --> 00:08:37,884 Speaker 2: more ways to vote than ever before. And I would 151 00:08:37,924 --> 00:08:41,204 Speaker 2: vote on I know, sixty three percent of the voting 152 00:08:41,204 --> 00:08:42,844 Speaker 2: eligible population instead of sixty. 153 00:08:42,604 --> 00:08:47,524 Speaker 1: Six I suppose, so you would put your money on 154 00:08:47,524 --> 00:08:50,444 Speaker 1: on lower turnout. And to be clear, we're not actually 155 00:08:50,524 --> 00:08:52,404 Speaker 1: making a bet, We're not actually putting money on the 156 00:08:52,404 --> 00:08:54,684 Speaker 1: line because this is not a topic that either one 157 00:08:54,684 --> 00:08:57,844 Speaker 1: of us has probably a lot of conviction. And do 158 00:08:57,884 --> 00:08:58,164 Speaker 1: you have to. 159 00:08:58,404 --> 00:09:01,484 Speaker 2: Actually have a model. So the model predicts, oh, there 160 00:09:01,524 --> 00:09:04,484 Speaker 2: we go, one hundred and fifty six million, six hundred 161 00:09:04,484 --> 00:09:06,964 Speaker 2: and eighty five thousand, six hundred and eighty people exactly 162 00:09:07,084 --> 00:09:13,804 Speaker 2: will vote. Okay, I obviously it's fake precision. Let me see, uh, 163 00:09:13,924 --> 00:09:18,444 Speaker 2: let me see what the numbers were in twenty twenty. 164 00:09:18,324 --> 00:09:23,044 Speaker 2: They say one hundred and fifty eight uh point four 165 00:09:23,044 --> 00:09:26,484 Speaker 2: million people voted, and I'm predicting our mouths one fifty 166 00:09:26,524 --> 00:09:30,644 Speaker 2: six point seven, so that would be off by just 167 00:09:30,684 --> 00:09:31,604 Speaker 2: a million or two. 168 00:09:32,004 --> 00:09:35,524 Speaker 1: Okay, but lower but lower. So so your your gut, 169 00:09:35,764 --> 00:09:39,244 Speaker 1: your gut was correct, and now the silver bulletin model 170 00:09:39,524 --> 00:09:43,044 Speaker 1: has validated your gut at least as of now. And 171 00:09:43,284 --> 00:09:45,324 Speaker 1: these numbers might change right as you get more data. 172 00:09:46,524 --> 00:09:48,044 Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I mean, so what we look at is 173 00:09:48,084 --> 00:09:51,804 Speaker 2: polls asking people how enthusiastic they are about voting in 174 00:09:51,804 --> 00:09:57,044 Speaker 2: the election, and people actually say they're pretty enthusiastic. However, 175 00:09:57,124 --> 00:09:59,084 Speaker 2: turn out with just really high in twenty twenty, So 176 00:09:59,164 --> 00:10:02,324 Speaker 2: until we see more confirmation of that than we're expecting 177 00:10:02,324 --> 00:10:03,244 Speaker 2: some reversion to the mean. 178 00:10:04,004 --> 00:10:06,804 Speaker 1: Great, well, if we're if we're going down that kind 179 00:10:06,844 --> 00:10:09,844 Speaker 1: of Djen rabbit hole. I actually think it's in interesting 180 00:10:09,884 --> 00:10:12,644 Speaker 1: because it does kind of touch on different pressure points 181 00:10:12,644 --> 00:10:15,884 Speaker 1: of the election. So some other ideas, what's our over under, 182 00:10:16,164 --> 00:10:18,604 Speaker 1: for one, major news outlets will actually call a winner. 183 00:10:18,844 --> 00:10:20,684 Speaker 1: I think that's an interesting one because I don't think 184 00:10:20,684 --> 00:10:24,044 Speaker 1: either one of us particularly feels like the election is 185 00:10:24,084 --> 00:10:26,804 Speaker 1: going to be over on November fifth, given how close 186 00:10:26,844 --> 00:10:29,924 Speaker 1: it is and given the the way elections have gone 187 00:10:29,964 --> 00:10:30,724 Speaker 1: in recent years. 188 00:10:32,164 --> 00:10:35,404 Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I mean the over under might be you know, 189 00:10:35,444 --> 00:10:40,084 Speaker 2: November fifth is a Tuesday, maybe Saturday, excuse me, Thursday morning. 190 00:10:40,124 --> 00:10:42,324 Speaker 2: The seventh. I mean keep in mind that, like the 191 00:10:42,364 --> 00:10:45,284 Speaker 2: networks send to be really conservative about making these calls, 192 00:10:46,444 --> 00:10:49,204 Speaker 2: except for Fox News, which weirdly called Arizona for Trump 193 00:10:49,244 --> 00:10:50,924 Speaker 2: when it was great premature to do so. But leave 194 00:10:50,964 --> 00:10:53,924 Speaker 2: that aside for a moment. Yeah, I remember doing in 195 00:10:53,964 --> 00:10:56,284 Speaker 2: twenty twenty. I was kind of like like in the 196 00:10:56,284 --> 00:10:58,884 Speaker 2: boiler room, it's during COVID doing like these are PEATV 197 00:10:59,004 --> 00:11:01,804 Speaker 2: hits over and over for ABC News, and like the networks, 198 00:11:02,164 --> 00:11:06,364 Speaker 2: it was obvious. I thought by like midday Wednesday that 199 00:11:06,444 --> 00:11:08,444 Speaker 2: Biden was going to have enough past to victory, but 200 00:11:08,484 --> 00:11:12,244 Speaker 2: the networks didn't call it until Saturday morning. But I 201 00:11:12,284 --> 00:11:13,684 Speaker 2: don't mean to make light of this. I mean, like, 202 00:11:14,684 --> 00:11:18,964 Speaker 2: you know, another disputed election outcome where Trump is sowing 203 00:11:19,004 --> 00:11:22,604 Speaker 2: doubt about the results, that would not be great for 204 00:11:22,804 --> 00:11:26,604 Speaker 2: the US. I think people are not quite pricing in, uh, 205 00:11:27,084 --> 00:11:28,724 Speaker 2: what's going to feel like if you have it, if 206 00:11:28,764 --> 00:11:33,084 Speaker 2: you have an unclear, ambiguous, disputed election result. 207 00:11:33,484 --> 00:11:36,844 Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, I'm actually hoping that we do get 208 00:11:37,324 --> 00:11:39,684 Speaker 1: a winner announced on the fifth or you know, on 209 00:11:40,004 --> 00:11:42,844 Speaker 1: early morning of the sixth. I hope that we do 210 00:11:42,924 --> 00:11:45,724 Speaker 1: have a very clear cut election, because I think that 211 00:11:45,724 --> 00:11:48,844 Speaker 1: that is something that we need because we have you know, 212 00:11:48,844 --> 00:11:50,764 Speaker 1: we've had some close calls and we've had a number 213 00:11:50,764 --> 00:11:54,724 Speaker 1: of disputed elections in recent memory. So so that's not 214 00:11:54,804 --> 00:11:57,484 Speaker 1: necessarily a great place to be when you're looking at 215 00:11:58,324 --> 00:12:01,044 Speaker 1: kind of when you're looking at democratic out outcomes and 216 00:12:01,084 --> 00:12:03,324 Speaker 1: peaceful transitions of power. No. 217 00:12:03,444 --> 00:12:05,604 Speaker 2: I mean, look, you don't need that much of a 218 00:12:05,604 --> 00:12:09,924 Speaker 2: polling er to have a pretty clear all right, if 219 00:12:10,004 --> 00:12:12,044 Speaker 2: Trump beats his polls by three points, then he wins 220 00:12:12,044 --> 00:12:14,924 Speaker 2: all the swing states. Likewise, for Harris, you could even 221 00:12:14,964 --> 00:12:17,004 Speaker 2: win Florida, which was a source of dispute with Keith 222 00:12:17,244 --> 00:12:23,404 Speaker 2: or boy. So, yeah, you know, on what other prep 223 00:12:23,404 --> 00:12:24,564 Speaker 2: bets do we have? Yeah? 224 00:12:24,644 --> 00:12:27,684 Speaker 1: So, so there were a few others. One was in 225 00:12:27,724 --> 00:12:30,724 Speaker 1: which of the swing states will polling to be turned 226 00:12:30,764 --> 00:12:32,604 Speaker 1: out to be the most accurate and in which will 227 00:12:32,604 --> 00:12:35,564 Speaker 1: it be the least accurate? So do you have as 228 00:12:35,644 --> 00:12:39,124 Speaker 1: ours our pole guru, do you have a sense of 229 00:12:39,124 --> 00:12:40,404 Speaker 1: how the polls are doing this year? 230 00:12:41,844 --> 00:12:44,564 Speaker 2: I mean, maybe Georgia for most accurate. The polls have 231 00:12:44,604 --> 00:12:47,004 Speaker 2: tended to be pretty accurate in Georgia in the past. 232 00:12:47,004 --> 00:12:50,324 Speaker 2: And also like like in Georgia, like you kind of 233 00:12:50,324 --> 00:12:52,044 Speaker 2: know everyone's going to vote, right, you have like the 234 00:12:52,124 --> 00:12:55,564 Speaker 2: evangelical whites, the African American population, and like you have 235 00:12:55,644 --> 00:12:57,644 Speaker 2: the you know, suburban so it's not like it's just 236 00:12:57,644 --> 00:12:59,204 Speaker 2: a matter of kind of racing to see who can 237 00:12:59,284 --> 00:13:02,444 Speaker 2: get more turnout, and that tends to make the polling 238 00:13:02,484 --> 00:13:04,364 Speaker 2: a little bit easier versus states where you have like 239 00:13:04,404 --> 00:13:07,924 Speaker 2: a lot of swing voters. But I'll go with Georgia 240 00:13:07,964 --> 00:13:12,324 Speaker 2: as the most accurate polling state. Do you have an opinion, Maria, No, I. 241 00:13:12,284 --> 00:13:15,404 Speaker 1: Don't because I don't know. You know, I don't follow 242 00:13:15,484 --> 00:13:17,564 Speaker 1: the polls as the way that you do. I just 243 00:13:17,604 --> 00:13:20,844 Speaker 1: look at your outcomes, and I tend to trust you 244 00:13:20,924 --> 00:13:23,604 Speaker 1: obviously when it comes to pulling red when it comes 245 00:13:23,644 --> 00:13:27,484 Speaker 1: to reading the polls, so I just kind of look 246 00:13:27,564 --> 00:13:30,524 Speaker 1: to see what the prevailing wisdom is. But I don't know, 247 00:13:30,644 --> 00:13:34,124 Speaker 1: you know, I think that it's one thing to say, oh, 248 00:13:34,204 --> 00:13:37,004 Speaker 1: you know, these are high quality polls, these are worse 249 00:13:37,084 --> 00:13:39,444 Speaker 1: quality polls, you know, et cetera, et cetera. But I 250 00:13:39,444 --> 00:13:42,244 Speaker 1: think it takes expertise that I, frankly do not have 251 00:13:42,644 --> 00:13:45,284 Speaker 1: to be able to say how accurate is polling within 252 00:13:45,364 --> 00:13:45,804 Speaker 1: a state. 253 00:13:46,164 --> 00:13:48,564 Speaker 2: I'm so torn on deferring to X, you know, because 254 00:13:48,564 --> 00:13:51,364 Speaker 2: I want to how your friends like Keith r who 255 00:13:51,404 --> 00:13:55,724 Speaker 2: clearly is outside his depth in this particular enterprise. A 256 00:13:55,804 --> 00:13:58,444 Speaker 2: lot of the time the experts are full of shit 257 00:13:58,524 --> 00:14:00,524 Speaker 2: and the non experts if I'm more full of shit? Right, 258 00:14:00,724 --> 00:14:03,204 Speaker 2: Life is hard. It's hard to make predictions about things. 259 00:14:03,324 --> 00:14:05,964 Speaker 1: It is hard to make predictions. And let's do a 260 00:14:05,964 --> 00:14:08,324 Speaker 1: shout out to the work of Phil Tetlock, who was 261 00:14:08,684 --> 00:14:11,324 Speaker 1: one of the first people to show how hard it 262 00:14:11,404 --> 00:14:13,764 Speaker 1: is to make predictions and how you know experts are 263 00:14:13,804 --> 00:14:17,804 Speaker 1: also often wrong. And but if we can't actually I'm 264 00:14:17,804 --> 00:14:20,044 Speaker 1: curious to hear the answer to this. If we can't 265 00:14:20,044 --> 00:14:23,364 Speaker 1: defer to experts, then you know what, who do we 266 00:14:23,404 --> 00:14:26,084 Speaker 1: defer to? I mean, there's obviously, you know, going back 267 00:14:26,204 --> 00:14:30,404 Speaker 1: to what we started off with, you know, with prediction 268 00:14:30,564 --> 00:14:33,484 Speaker 1: markets and places like cal shan As. We know you're 269 00:14:34,564 --> 00:14:37,964 Speaker 1: paid advisor for polymarket. I just I hate having to 270 00:14:38,044 --> 00:14:41,884 Speaker 1: throw that disclaimer out every single time, but but I 271 00:14:41,884 --> 00:14:43,804 Speaker 1: think we do have to throw it at every single time. 272 00:14:44,044 --> 00:14:47,524 Speaker 1: Our prediction markets a better place, Like what do we 273 00:14:47,604 --> 00:14:49,404 Speaker 1: defer to? Then if we can't, if we say, like 274 00:14:49,804 --> 00:14:51,964 Speaker 1: you know, you can't really defer to experts, how do 275 00:14:52,004 --> 00:14:53,604 Speaker 1: you figure out you know, how do I form an 276 00:14:53,604 --> 00:14:54,164 Speaker 1: opinion on this. 277 00:14:55,324 --> 00:14:57,884 Speaker 2: Yeah, look, obviously my fan of prediction markets. I think 278 00:14:57,924 --> 00:15:00,364 Speaker 2: I think one of if you read Phil Telllock's book 279 00:15:00,364 --> 00:15:03,204 Speaker 2: that you reference, We're Expert Political judgment. I mean, you 280 00:15:03,204 --> 00:15:07,604 Speaker 2: know that actually forced experts to make probabilistic predictions, right, 281 00:15:07,684 --> 00:15:09,884 Speaker 2: Like what's the chance that the USSR will break up 282 00:15:10,364 --> 00:15:11,804 Speaker 2: in the next ten years might have been a question 283 00:15:11,884 --> 00:15:15,244 Speaker 2: that he asked. For example, when you encourage people to 284 00:15:15,244 --> 00:15:17,804 Speaker 2: do that, then you actually create more accountability, You create 285 00:15:17,804 --> 00:15:20,964 Speaker 2: a paper trail because the most part like experts don't 286 00:15:20,964 --> 00:15:25,084 Speaker 2: actually have incentives to make accurate predictions, you know what 287 00:15:25,164 --> 00:15:28,004 Speaker 2: I mean, they have incentives to be ambiguous so they 288 00:15:28,044 --> 00:15:30,924 Speaker 2: can't be proven wrong. And so you know, stuff like 289 00:15:30,964 --> 00:15:34,084 Speaker 2: what we do at Silver Bulletin is actually quite unusual, 290 00:15:34,764 --> 00:15:36,804 Speaker 2: and if experts were forced to come up with actual 291 00:15:36,804 --> 00:15:39,364 Speaker 2: answers then they would do they would potentially be a 292 00:15:39,364 --> 00:15:41,244 Speaker 2: little bit better, although I think we'd also expose people 293 00:15:41,244 --> 00:15:42,804 Speaker 2: who are not very vigorous in their thinking. 294 00:15:43,524 --> 00:15:45,764 Speaker 1: Yeah, so then maybe we would be able to have 295 00:15:45,844 --> 00:15:48,164 Speaker 1: kind of a hierarchy of expertise, which I think is 296 00:15:48,164 --> 00:15:52,364 Speaker 1: something that is very would be very very helpful, at 297 00:15:52,444 --> 00:15:55,764 Speaker 1: least to someone like me the other thing that happened 298 00:15:56,124 --> 00:15:58,444 Speaker 1: in the news, kind of putting our little prop bets aside. 299 00:15:58,564 --> 00:16:01,724 Speaker 1: Obviously we had the VP debates since you and I 300 00:16:02,124 --> 00:16:05,204 Speaker 1: last spoke. Did that make any difference whatsoever? I know 301 00:16:05,244 --> 00:16:07,284 Speaker 1: you've said over and over and over that you know, 302 00:16:07,364 --> 00:16:10,924 Speaker 1: the VP debates don't really matter, piece don't usually matter. 303 00:16:12,204 --> 00:16:14,484 Speaker 1: Have we seen them matter at all in the last 304 00:16:14,524 --> 00:16:15,684 Speaker 1: week or no change. 305 00:16:15,924 --> 00:16:19,364 Speaker 2: There's been oddly little polling of any kind. I think 306 00:16:19,404 --> 00:16:21,484 Speaker 2: the polsearch just all decided to take the weekend off. 307 00:16:22,924 --> 00:16:24,884 Speaker 2: I don't know, man, you can let me say something 308 00:16:24,884 --> 00:16:28,284 Speaker 2: that will get clipped onto the Twitter, right, Like, I'm 309 00:16:28,324 --> 00:16:33,644 Speaker 2: not into Tim Walls really, I mean he's fine, but like, uh, 310 00:16:34,164 --> 00:16:37,004 Speaker 2: you know, first of all, there's all this discussion about like, oh, 311 00:16:37,044 --> 00:16:39,364 Speaker 2: you don't want to the term sain washing. It's like, oh, 312 00:16:39,364 --> 00:16:41,284 Speaker 2: you don't want to make Trump Advance seem insane, and 313 00:16:41,324 --> 00:16:44,844 Speaker 2: he's like he's doing this whole nice guy thing. And 314 00:16:45,204 --> 00:16:48,484 Speaker 2: I think Vance is just objectively like a better debater 315 00:16:48,604 --> 00:16:51,764 Speaker 2: than Tim Walls. And Tim Walls was obviously extremely nervous 316 00:16:51,804 --> 00:16:54,404 Speaker 2: for the first fifteen minutes of the debate, which is 317 00:16:54,404 --> 00:16:56,204 Speaker 2: a part that people often remember, like it won't matter 318 00:16:56,244 --> 00:16:57,724 Speaker 2: I don't think very much of the end. The polls 319 00:16:57,764 --> 00:17:00,644 Speaker 2: showed that people thought the debate was a tie basically, 320 00:17:01,764 --> 00:17:03,124 Speaker 2: but I don't know, you know, it's kind of you 321 00:17:03,164 --> 00:17:08,444 Speaker 2: have your one job thing and you should really nail 322 00:17:08,524 --> 00:17:11,084 Speaker 2: that debate. And he I think it was tactically not 323 00:17:11,244 --> 00:17:14,444 Speaker 2: very good at going after JD. Vance and I'm I'm 324 00:17:14,444 --> 00:17:17,764 Speaker 2: just not into it. I don't really understand, you know what. 325 00:17:17,804 --> 00:17:23,084 Speaker 2: There's like feeling of euphoria after Harris replaced Biden, and 326 00:17:23,124 --> 00:17:25,764 Speaker 2: I think people therefore overrated everything she did in that 327 00:17:25,804 --> 00:17:27,724 Speaker 2: period after that. And if it were me, I would 328 00:17:27,804 --> 00:17:31,484 Speaker 2: rather have, say, the extremely popular governor Pennsylvania, which is 329 00:17:32,084 --> 00:17:34,364 Speaker 2: the most important tipping point of the state. 330 00:17:35,204 --> 00:17:39,164 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, let's see what ends up happening, and after 331 00:17:39,204 --> 00:17:42,444 Speaker 1: the break, we'll talk about betting on something else, which 332 00:17:42,484 --> 00:18:02,204 Speaker 1: is betting on cards and poker bots. Nate, if I 333 00:18:02,244 --> 00:18:08,324 Speaker 1: remember correctly, way back when you made a living professionally 334 00:18:08,524 --> 00:18:13,084 Speaker 1: playing poker online playing limit hold him? Is that correct? 335 00:18:13,644 --> 00:18:17,684 Speaker 2: That's correct? For preire to two for three years, I 336 00:18:17,684 --> 00:18:20,164 Speaker 2: guess three years. Yeah, my main source of income was 337 00:18:20,164 --> 00:18:22,524 Speaker 2: playing fricking party poker. 338 00:18:24,004 --> 00:18:27,324 Speaker 1: And when was this let's put it on a timeline. 339 00:18:27,444 --> 00:18:29,604 Speaker 2: It's two thousand and four to two thousand and six, 340 00:18:29,724 --> 00:18:31,844 Speaker 2: and then then I had a year where let's not 341 00:18:31,804 --> 00:18:34,404 Speaker 2: tell them, but I actually lost money in two thousand 342 00:18:34,404 --> 00:18:37,244 Speaker 2: and seven after the game's cut. So the US Congress 343 00:18:37,284 --> 00:18:39,484 Speaker 2: passed a bill called the U I G E A 344 00:18:39,884 --> 00:18:43,204 Speaker 2: EUG U G. Yeah, and once that happened, the game 345 00:18:43,284 --> 00:18:47,524 Speaker 2: started to dry up and Party Poker closed. And but anyway, yeah, 346 00:18:47,524 --> 00:18:50,564 Speaker 2: I'm actually I was able to change my whole career 347 00:18:51,244 --> 00:18:53,084 Speaker 2: by playing online poker basically. 348 00:18:53,524 --> 00:18:56,684 Speaker 1: Okay, So the reason that I asked about this is 349 00:18:57,524 --> 00:19:02,604 Speaker 1: this past week, we've had several blockbuster investigation pieces come 350 00:19:02,604 --> 00:19:08,044 Speaker 1: out about bots in online poker and bots as kind 351 00:19:08,044 --> 00:19:11,364 Speaker 1: of an existential three to the game. So the first 352 00:19:11,364 --> 00:19:14,524 Speaker 1: of these came out on September twentieth, and it was 353 00:19:14,564 --> 00:19:17,764 Speaker 1: a piece by kit Chilo, who has been doing this 354 00:19:19,004 --> 00:19:24,484 Speaker 1: deep dive investigation into a massive, massive Russian bought. He 355 00:19:24,564 --> 00:19:27,324 Speaker 1: calls it an army. So usually in the online poker 356 00:19:27,364 --> 00:19:30,364 Speaker 1: world we talk about bot farms, but when you read 357 00:19:30,404 --> 00:19:33,764 Speaker 1: this piece, you realize that, holy shit, army might actually 358 00:19:33,804 --> 00:19:38,484 Speaker 1: be a legitimate way to look at this. So he 359 00:19:38,964 --> 00:19:42,964 Speaker 1: had kind of found a few breadcrumbs that then led 360 00:19:43,044 --> 00:19:46,684 Speaker 1: him to poker forms to people who actually were involved 361 00:19:46,764 --> 00:19:50,964 Speaker 1: in this bot operation. And it turns out that this group, 362 00:19:51,044 --> 00:19:54,324 Speaker 1: originally this group of students, then it grew much bigger, 363 00:19:55,604 --> 00:20:00,044 Speaker 1: is working, you know, in the depths of Siberia, and 364 00:20:00,084 --> 00:20:03,884 Speaker 1: these are stats nerds, college students who need extra income 365 00:20:04,364 --> 00:20:07,044 Speaker 1: and they want to get better at poker, at online poker, 366 00:20:07,324 --> 00:20:10,524 Speaker 1: and so they start kind of playing around with basically 367 00:20:10,604 --> 00:20:13,564 Speaker 1: what you know today we'd call solver software. Then they 368 00:20:13,564 --> 00:20:16,284 Speaker 1: start developing little bots to try to implement some of 369 00:20:16,324 --> 00:20:21,484 Speaker 1: these ideas. Fast forward to kind of the capabilities that 370 00:20:21,524 --> 00:20:25,564 Speaker 1: these bots can actually be deployed onto poker platforms, and 371 00:20:26,364 --> 00:20:30,004 Speaker 1: these bots start being used and start winning money on 372 00:20:30,004 --> 00:20:34,564 Speaker 1: online poker sites in great numbers. And then it turns 373 00:20:34,604 --> 00:20:38,204 Speaker 1: out that some online poker sites might even be deploying 374 00:20:38,244 --> 00:20:43,004 Speaker 1: bots themselves in order to generate artificially larger player pools, 375 00:20:43,124 --> 00:20:45,364 Speaker 1: because if you're an online poker site, you don't particularly 376 00:20:45,404 --> 00:20:47,404 Speaker 1: care if the person playing the rag is a little 377 00:20:47,444 --> 00:20:50,564 Speaker 1: bot or a human as long as you get the money. 378 00:20:50,964 --> 00:20:54,484 Speaker 1: And so then after this Bloomberg piece came out, a 379 00:20:54,564 --> 00:20:59,884 Speaker 1: second piece came out by Jonathan Robb and he investigated 380 00:20:59,924 --> 00:21:03,844 Speaker 1: further and actually named names of some online poker companies. Anyway, 381 00:21:03,964 --> 00:21:06,084 Speaker 1: this is a very long introduction, so we'll talk more 382 00:21:06,084 --> 00:21:09,804 Speaker 1: about this later, but it seems like we see quite 383 00:21:09,844 --> 00:21:12,884 Speaker 1: the existential threat to online poker and to players and 384 00:21:12,924 --> 00:21:15,924 Speaker 1: it like yourself who look at online poker as a 385 00:21:15,964 --> 00:21:18,964 Speaker 1: way of making money. So what what do you think? 386 00:21:19,004 --> 00:21:21,924 Speaker 1: You know, have you been following this poker BT explosion 387 00:21:22,044 --> 00:21:24,924 Speaker 1: at all and have you given any thought to kind 388 00:21:24,964 --> 00:21:26,684 Speaker 1: of the state of online poker play. 389 00:21:27,884 --> 00:21:30,484 Speaker 2: I mean, first of all, I don't look at online 390 00:21:30,484 --> 00:21:33,484 Speaker 2: poker as a way to make money. I look at 391 00:21:33,524 --> 00:21:38,004 Speaker 2: it as a form of recreation, I suppose, because like 392 00:21:40,004 --> 00:21:44,364 Speaker 2: to me, it seems like a somewhat unsolvable problem that 393 00:21:44,404 --> 00:21:48,524 Speaker 2: you have solvers now that can that can give you 394 00:21:48,564 --> 00:21:51,564 Speaker 2: a game theory optimal solution to a poker hand, never 395 00:21:51,564 --> 00:21:56,404 Speaker 2: mind anything more advanced about like doing data mining particular opponents. 396 00:21:56,884 --> 00:21:58,644 Speaker 2: You know, to me, unless you're interested when you're actually 397 00:21:58,684 --> 00:22:03,124 Speaker 2: having somebody like physically on a camera or something. Then 398 00:22:04,324 --> 00:22:08,044 Speaker 2: you know, combined with the fact that, like as it 399 00:22:08,044 --> 00:22:10,564 Speaker 2: says the Bloomberg article, it's kind of a Darwinian struggle 400 00:22:11,244 --> 00:22:14,604 Speaker 2: to begin with online poker, right, people are already playing 401 00:22:14,604 --> 00:22:17,604 Speaker 2: pretty close to optimal that I just don't. I wouldn't 402 00:22:17,644 --> 00:22:20,644 Speaker 2: want to have to live my life now trying to 403 00:22:20,684 --> 00:22:25,844 Speaker 2: make money playing poker online. And and there are home 404 00:22:25,884 --> 00:22:28,084 Speaker 2: games that people say, but I just think the risk 405 00:22:28,164 --> 00:22:29,364 Speaker 2: is pretty is pretty high. 406 00:22:29,884 --> 00:22:32,684 Speaker 1: Yeah, And when we when we look at kind of 407 00:22:32,684 --> 00:22:38,724 Speaker 1: these further investigations. So this second article that I alluded to, 408 00:22:39,044 --> 00:22:43,684 Speaker 1: the Jonathan rob piece in Poker Pro, he actually found 409 00:22:43,804 --> 00:22:47,124 Speaker 1: kind of this one site, jack Poker that seemed to 410 00:22:47,124 --> 00:22:50,804 Speaker 1: be almost entirely creating their playerpool out of bots, which 411 00:22:50,844 --> 00:22:53,244 Speaker 1: is kind of crazy, right, And he you know, signed 412 00:22:53,324 --> 00:22:55,804 Speaker 1: up as a real person with real money, and then 413 00:22:55,804 --> 00:22:58,844 Speaker 1: he noticed these crazy patterns in their tournaments, et cetera. 414 00:22:59,284 --> 00:23:02,884 Speaker 1: Went down that rabbit hole and actually saw that they 415 00:23:02,884 --> 00:23:06,964 Speaker 1: were connected to their user interface was connected to this 416 00:23:07,244 --> 00:23:12,804 Speaker 1: corporation that Chile had wrote about, the Bot Farm Corporation BFC, 417 00:23:13,684 --> 00:23:17,604 Speaker 1: and what kind of they're deep play software, which is 418 00:23:17,684 --> 00:23:19,484 Speaker 1: kind of these bots that they were deploying. And if 419 00:23:19,524 --> 00:23:22,764 Speaker 1: it's true that sites like that are actually kind of 420 00:23:23,124 --> 00:23:26,964 Speaker 1: embracing bots in some ways like that to me is 421 00:23:27,484 --> 00:23:30,324 Speaker 1: quite worrying. By the way, time for my own disclaimer, 422 00:23:31,004 --> 00:23:33,484 Speaker 1: as people know, but I should say I'm an ambassador 423 00:23:33,484 --> 00:23:35,764 Speaker 1: for Poker Stars, which is also an online poker site. 424 00:23:35,964 --> 00:23:39,564 Speaker 1: Poker Stars was not implicated in any of this, but 425 00:23:40,084 --> 00:23:41,964 Speaker 1: you know, I should, I should throw that out there. 426 00:23:42,444 --> 00:23:46,244 Speaker 2: I mean, like there are incentives to not have perceived 427 00:23:46,324 --> 00:23:49,164 Speaker 2: or actual cheating. I suppose it just that, you know, 428 00:23:49,204 --> 00:23:51,284 Speaker 2: I mean when you can like, I don't know. I 429 00:23:51,324 --> 00:23:54,444 Speaker 2: mean it's I tried to play poker against chatchipt once. 430 00:23:55,724 --> 00:23:56,844 Speaker 1: Really, how did that go? 431 00:23:57,444 --> 00:24:01,444 Speaker 2: It's very nitty. No matter what options you give it, it 432 00:24:01,404 --> 00:24:04,044 Speaker 2: always just checks the pot down, even if it has 433 00:24:04,084 --> 00:24:06,524 Speaker 2: like the nuts. So you know, maybe we still have 434 00:24:06,564 --> 00:24:09,284 Speaker 2: some time for humans to be better than Chetchapet at poker. 435 00:24:09,284 --> 00:24:13,204 Speaker 2: But like, but you know, it's an asymmetric arms race. 436 00:24:13,204 --> 00:24:15,124 Speaker 2: It's just hard for me to imagine that someone who 437 00:24:15,204 --> 00:24:22,124 Speaker 2: is connected to a computer can't find efficient ways to cheat. Basically, yeah, 438 00:24:22,204 --> 00:24:22,564 Speaker 2: I mean. 439 00:24:22,564 --> 00:24:27,284 Speaker 1: This is clearly a real problem, and there are I 440 00:24:27,324 --> 00:24:30,404 Speaker 1: do think there are solutions. By the way, you can 441 00:24:30,484 --> 00:24:32,964 Speaker 1: usually figure it out when you're looking at deep analysis. 442 00:24:33,004 --> 00:24:35,124 Speaker 1: So Nate, as a statistician and someone who does this 443 00:24:35,204 --> 00:24:39,004 Speaker 1: kind of analysis, you can probably appreciate that if you 444 00:24:39,044 --> 00:24:42,324 Speaker 1: have a database of you know, hundreds and thousands of hands, 445 00:24:42,364 --> 00:24:44,764 Speaker 1: you can start seeing is this a person or is 446 00:24:44,804 --> 00:24:48,924 Speaker 1: this a computer that has some sort of regular type 447 00:24:48,924 --> 00:24:52,844 Speaker 1: of output and you know, flagging and getting rid of 448 00:24:52,884 --> 00:24:57,684 Speaker 1: those things immediately is a is a big one the 449 00:24:57,764 --> 00:24:59,564 Speaker 1: other one, And I don't think anyone wants to do this, 450 00:24:59,644 --> 00:25:02,404 Speaker 1: but I think it could. I think it's potentially kind 451 00:25:02,404 --> 00:25:05,364 Speaker 1: of the future of a safe poker environment is what 452 00:25:05,404 --> 00:25:07,724 Speaker 1: if we play on camera? Right? Like, what if you 453 00:25:07,764 --> 00:25:10,764 Speaker 1: have those types of checks where you actually try to 454 00:25:10,924 --> 00:25:14,324 Speaker 1: monitor who's playing, how they're playing, et cetera. And even 455 00:25:14,364 --> 00:25:17,684 Speaker 1: that's not perfect obviously, but there are certain things that 456 00:25:17,724 --> 00:25:20,644 Speaker 1: you can start doing. But it takes a lot of resources, 457 00:25:20,724 --> 00:25:24,684 Speaker 1: and the incentives, unfortunately, are often with the players. And 458 00:25:24,764 --> 00:25:26,964 Speaker 1: as you said, it is an arms race, like we 459 00:25:26,964 --> 00:25:29,564 Speaker 1: can learn to try to figure out, oh, what's this 460 00:25:29,644 --> 00:25:31,284 Speaker 1: kind of bot look like? What does that kind of 461 00:25:31,324 --> 00:25:33,764 Speaker 1: bot look like? And then someone comes up with something better, 462 00:25:33,844 --> 00:25:36,324 Speaker 1: someone who deviates or you know, something that looks more 463 00:25:36,404 --> 00:25:39,604 Speaker 1: human like like the Turing test. Right, every single year 464 00:25:40,124 --> 00:25:43,164 Speaker 1: becomes more and more likely that we'll actually have someone 465 00:25:43,284 --> 00:25:46,644 Speaker 1: be able to beat the Turing test. I think all 466 00:25:46,644 --> 00:25:48,844 Speaker 1: of our listeners probably know what the Turing test is, 467 00:25:48,924 --> 00:25:51,524 Speaker 1: but do we want to pause for a second to 468 00:25:52,644 --> 00:25:54,924 Speaker 1: explain what that is for people who might not know. 469 00:25:56,164 --> 00:25:58,484 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think probably most people know. But the Turing 470 00:25:58,524 --> 00:26:01,484 Speaker 2: test is basically, can you program I mean it's actually 471 00:26:01,484 --> 00:26:07,124 Speaker 2: anticipates chat GPT pretty well, right, but can you tell 472 00:26:07,564 --> 00:26:10,724 Speaker 2: if you're having a conversation with a human being versus 473 00:26:10,764 --> 00:26:14,844 Speaker 2: a computer? And yeah, no, I mean like CHUTCHIPT, I 474 00:26:14,844 --> 00:26:18,124 Speaker 2: mean it has signature for example, frequently says as a 475 00:26:18,164 --> 00:26:21,164 Speaker 2: large language model, which is something that like. But the 476 00:26:21,204 --> 00:26:23,804 Speaker 2: thing even that though, like, you know, so if you 477 00:26:23,844 --> 00:26:26,804 Speaker 2: do play online poker and you're playing a lot of 478 00:26:26,844 --> 00:26:29,964 Speaker 2: hours and sometimes you get a prompt saying prove that 479 00:26:30,004 --> 00:26:32,364 Speaker 2: you're a human, right, do some task now that proves 480 00:26:32,404 --> 00:26:35,284 Speaker 2: that you're a human and not just a bot. But 481 00:26:35,324 --> 00:26:37,644 Speaker 2: the thing is, though, like you could intentionally introduce some 482 00:26:37,724 --> 00:26:41,044 Speaker 2: degree of like randomization. I mean, one thing about cheaters 483 00:26:41,084 --> 00:26:43,844 Speaker 2: in general is that most cheaters are really greedy, or 484 00:26:43,884 --> 00:26:45,844 Speaker 2: at least the ones that get caught right, and so 485 00:26:45,924 --> 00:26:48,484 Speaker 2: they cheat too much. When if you were a smart 486 00:26:48,524 --> 00:26:51,084 Speaker 2: cheater and poker could just kind of get away with 487 00:26:51,124 --> 00:26:53,204 Speaker 2: the edge cases where you magically happen to know in 488 00:26:53,204 --> 00:26:55,444 Speaker 2: the spot where you're a different what your opponent has 489 00:26:55,484 --> 00:26:58,564 Speaker 2: on the river, And instead people get very greedy, but 490 00:26:58,764 --> 00:27:02,364 Speaker 2: I just think it's kind of asymmetric warfare. In the end, 491 00:27:02,444 --> 00:27:05,724 Speaker 2: life poker is good, though, yes, more life poker. 492 00:27:06,884 --> 00:27:09,844 Speaker 1: I agree. I think life poker is certainly a for know, 493 00:27:09,964 --> 00:27:12,844 Speaker 1: though not altogether safe. You know, we've we've had live 494 00:27:12,924 --> 00:27:14,244 Speaker 1: cheating scandals as well. 495 00:27:14,604 --> 00:27:16,884 Speaker 2: And this has always bugging me at like poker is 496 00:27:17,924 --> 00:27:21,204 Speaker 2: quite forgiving. I think of cheating other bad behavior and 497 00:27:21,284 --> 00:27:23,044 Speaker 2: ways like yeah, it should just be banned for many 498 00:27:23,044 --> 00:27:26,524 Speaker 2: casino for lifetime or for five years and for things 499 00:27:26,564 --> 00:27:28,324 Speaker 2: like that, and instead they're kind of like slap on 500 00:27:28,364 --> 00:27:31,644 Speaker 2: the wrist at the time. Yeah, you know, Isaac Heckson, 501 00:27:31,844 --> 00:27:33,084 Speaker 2: I talked to you for the book, one of the 502 00:27:33,124 --> 00:27:36,724 Speaker 2: best players in the world, and told me that his 503 00:27:37,124 --> 00:27:43,084 Speaker 2: ROI and online poker is about ten percent, which is 504 00:27:43,084 --> 00:27:45,164 Speaker 2: not actually very good, or said under ten percent in 505 00:27:45,164 --> 00:27:48,764 Speaker 2: the single digits, right, So forever, forever, thousand dollars he 506 00:27:48,804 --> 00:27:50,404 Speaker 2: invests in playing a tournament, that's one of the best 507 00:27:50,404 --> 00:27:52,724 Speaker 2: players in the world, you know, maybe he has an 508 00:27:52,724 --> 00:27:55,244 Speaker 2: expected return of fifty or sixty dollars from that, Like 509 00:27:55,284 --> 00:27:58,924 Speaker 2: that's actually, given the variants of poker, not a very 510 00:27:58,964 --> 00:28:01,324 Speaker 2: good deal, right, And if he one of the ten 511 00:28:01,364 --> 00:28:03,164 Speaker 2: to twelve best players in the world is only making 512 00:28:03,204 --> 00:28:05,924 Speaker 2: that much, then I I don't think very many people 513 00:28:05,924 --> 00:28:08,164 Speaker 2: are really beating online poker sites without cheating in the 514 00:28:08,204 --> 00:28:08,644 Speaker 2: long run. 515 00:28:09,484 --> 00:28:12,924 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that that's that's very sobering. I did 516 00:28:12,924 --> 00:28:16,844 Speaker 1: not I did not realize that that I could communicated 517 00:28:16,884 --> 00:28:19,644 Speaker 1: those numbers to you if if one of the best 518 00:28:19,644 --> 00:28:22,004 Speaker 1: players in the world says that, but I will caveat 519 00:28:22,044 --> 00:28:24,084 Speaker 1: that was saying. Mike also plays in a lot of 520 00:28:24,164 --> 00:28:26,804 Speaker 1: much harder games, right, He's probably not playing in some 521 00:28:26,924 --> 00:28:29,484 Speaker 1: of the lower buying tournaments that you know, you and 522 00:28:29,524 --> 00:28:33,324 Speaker 1: I would would play in. He's probably playing the high rollers. 523 00:28:33,364 --> 00:28:35,124 Speaker 2: But still, it's pretty it's pretty frightening. 524 00:28:35,324 --> 00:28:38,884 Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure, for sure. So I'm very curious to see, 525 00:28:38,964 --> 00:28:40,884 Speaker 1: you know, what the fallout is going to be of 526 00:28:40,924 --> 00:28:44,124 Speaker 1: all of this, whether sites are going to address it, 527 00:28:44,164 --> 00:28:46,644 Speaker 1: whether they're you know, what the what the changes are 528 00:28:46,644 --> 00:28:49,484 Speaker 1: going to be. There was you know, for instance, I 529 00:28:49,764 --> 00:28:53,164 Speaker 1: the last poker live Poker I played was European Poker 530 00:28:53,204 --> 00:28:57,044 Speaker 1: Tory PT Barcelona, and at that stop that happened right 531 00:28:57,124 --> 00:29:04,164 Speaker 1: after there were some cheating allegations. We we we don't 532 00:29:04,204 --> 00:29:06,244 Speaker 1: have to go into into details on those, but of 533 00:29:06,484 --> 00:29:10,964 Speaker 1: live poker and of certain methods of being able to 534 00:29:11,084 --> 00:29:15,084 Speaker 1: kind of see cards live at the table. And so 535 00:29:15,364 --> 00:29:20,604 Speaker 1: what Poker Stars announced at the stop was some new rules, 536 00:29:21,404 --> 00:29:24,964 Speaker 1: including no phones on the tables, no phones on the rails. 537 00:29:25,644 --> 00:29:28,924 Speaker 1: And I think that, you know, things like that actually 538 00:29:28,964 --> 00:29:32,324 Speaker 1: show that, Okay, we're we're trying to take some of 539 00:29:32,324 --> 00:29:37,004 Speaker 1: these threats seriously as they're evolving. And I went to 540 00:29:37,044 --> 00:29:38,764 Speaker 1: step further and I said, you know what, like we 541 00:29:38,804 --> 00:29:41,484 Speaker 1: should ban phones at the table period, We should ban 542 00:29:41,604 --> 00:29:44,444 Speaker 1: sunglasses at the table. You know, there are certain things 543 00:29:44,484 --> 00:29:47,844 Speaker 1: that like we just know that there's cheating technology that 544 00:29:47,884 --> 00:29:51,604 Speaker 1: can be used in those instances. And I love having 545 00:29:51,644 --> 00:29:53,844 Speaker 1: my phone, but you know, I'm willing to put it 546 00:29:53,884 --> 00:29:56,364 Speaker 1: on the floor and to not touch it for an hour, 547 00:29:57,204 --> 00:29:59,564 Speaker 1: Like I'm okay with that, And I actually think it 548 00:29:59,604 --> 00:30:02,084 Speaker 1: would be very good for everyone's mental health to not 549 00:30:02,284 --> 00:30:03,324 Speaker 1: have your phone on you. 550 00:30:03,404 --> 00:30:07,764 Speaker 2: Twenty four se day, Day twenty six of fifty two 551 00:30:07,804 --> 00:30:10,404 Speaker 2: with the Worldter's of Poker, You're playing in some eight 552 00:30:10,484 --> 00:30:14,764 Speaker 2: hundred dollars freeze out ten handed with the guy from Buffalo, 553 00:30:14,844 --> 00:30:18,124 Speaker 2: who I mean is taking fifteen seconds to fold. I mean, 554 00:30:18,124 --> 00:30:20,124 Speaker 2: you want your fucking phone, don't you? 555 00:30:20,444 --> 00:30:23,444 Speaker 1: I do want my fucking phone, but for the greater 556 00:30:23,524 --> 00:30:24,004 Speaker 1: good of the things. 557 00:30:24,204 --> 00:30:27,204 Speaker 2: Why I'm making fun of Buffalo by the way, we 558 00:30:27,244 --> 00:30:27,964 Speaker 2: love Buffalo. 559 00:30:29,004 --> 00:30:32,164 Speaker 1: Oh, Buffalo has taken some flack from us in the past. 560 00:30:32,164 --> 00:30:33,284 Speaker 1: I just remembered because you were. 561 00:30:33,364 --> 00:30:35,164 Speaker 2: Forgot the unexpected layover. 562 00:30:35,444 --> 00:30:39,484 Speaker 1: Yeah, you had a Buffalo layover anyway, Sorry, Buffalo, You're great. 563 00:30:39,964 --> 00:30:42,244 Speaker 1: But you know I would I would take one for 564 00:30:42,284 --> 00:30:45,044 Speaker 1: the team and be willing to give up my phone 565 00:30:45,044 --> 00:30:48,124 Speaker 1: a little bit if it meant you know, game integrity 566 00:30:48,524 --> 00:30:51,444 Speaker 1: and things that are kind of safer for the game. So, 567 00:30:52,124 --> 00:30:54,924 Speaker 1: you know, I think, But just to wrap this up, 568 00:30:55,484 --> 00:30:58,924 Speaker 1: I think there are existential threats. We need to address them, 569 00:30:59,244 --> 00:31:00,684 Speaker 1: and we need to figure out kind of the best 570 00:31:00,684 --> 00:31:03,044 Speaker 1: way forward because I think you and I both feel 571 00:31:03,324 --> 00:31:05,244 Speaker 1: that poker is a great game and a game that 572 00:31:05,284 --> 00:31:08,484 Speaker 1: can really kind of help people think better, make better decisions, 573 00:31:08,524 --> 00:31:12,164 Speaker 1: and be great if people could safely continue playing in 574 00:31:12,724 --> 00:31:15,924 Speaker 1: all in all forms, and I hope that happens. 575 00:31:17,924 --> 00:31:20,124 Speaker 2: Speaking about existential threats, you want to talk about open 576 00:31:20,164 --> 00:31:20,844 Speaker 2: AI real quick? 577 00:31:21,004 --> 00:31:24,244 Speaker 1: Yeah, So now we've been talking about existential threats to poker, 578 00:31:24,324 --> 00:31:27,324 Speaker 1: and after the break, let's talk about open an AI 579 00:31:27,564 --> 00:31:49,004 Speaker 1: and revisit some of those existential threats day a while ago. 580 00:31:49,124 --> 00:31:51,644 Speaker 1: I think the last time we spoke about the concept 581 00:31:51,644 --> 00:31:53,924 Speaker 1: of p doom was what a few months back, right 582 00:31:54,364 --> 00:31:57,644 Speaker 1: where we talked about the risk that AI poses to 583 00:31:57,684 --> 00:32:00,844 Speaker 1: the world. Last week, in the last week, there's been 584 00:32:01,444 --> 00:32:06,164 Speaker 1: a lot of news coming out of open Ai, a 585 00:32:06,164 --> 00:32:10,124 Speaker 1: lot of new departures and a lot of fundra saying. 586 00:32:11,604 --> 00:32:13,924 Speaker 2: So yeah, open ai raised six point six billion, we 587 00:32:13,964 --> 00:32:15,924 Speaker 2: are told by our reliable producers, at one hundred and 588 00:32:15,924 --> 00:32:19,244 Speaker 2: fifty seven billion dollar valuation. It is losing a lot 589 00:32:19,244 --> 00:32:24,124 Speaker 2: of money. By the way, this hardware is expensive, compute 590 00:32:24,164 --> 00:32:28,444 Speaker 2: is expensive. The commercialization has not been great so far, 591 00:32:28,644 --> 00:32:30,564 Speaker 2: but people are betting on the upside outcome of this 592 00:32:30,644 --> 00:32:35,244 Speaker 2: being you know, maybe the leading AI company. But it's begun. 593 00:32:35,364 --> 00:32:39,724 Speaker 2: You know. Open ai began its life as a nonprofit 594 00:32:41,124 --> 00:32:41,964 Speaker 2: co founded by. 595 00:32:41,964 --> 00:32:43,484 Speaker 1: Rest and Peace and nonprofits. 596 00:32:43,604 --> 00:32:48,564 Speaker 2: Yeah, co founded by Elon Musk and Sam Maltman. You know, look, Evon, 597 00:32:49,244 --> 00:32:52,044 Speaker 2: he does an impressive array of things. I know that's 598 00:32:52,044 --> 00:32:54,884 Speaker 2: gonna like really piss off half our audience, right, but 599 00:32:55,044 --> 00:32:57,084 Speaker 2: like the fact that this isn't even his main thing. 600 00:32:58,244 --> 00:33:00,604 Speaker 2: It's not Tesla or SpaceX, and that he has open 601 00:33:00,644 --> 00:33:03,804 Speaker 2: AI and and neurallink, and for some reason it decides 602 00:33:03,844 --> 00:33:08,284 Speaker 2: to invest his time on Twitter slash x instead. But yeah, 603 00:33:09,004 --> 00:33:11,804 Speaker 2: so open I has been in various formal and informal 604 00:33:11,844 --> 00:33:15,324 Speaker 2: ways moving further and further away from this notion of 605 00:33:15,364 --> 00:33:19,844 Speaker 2: being a nonprofit. You have had a great number of 606 00:33:19,884 --> 00:33:23,124 Speaker 2: the alignment people, meaning people that are so alignment is 607 00:33:23,164 --> 00:33:28,284 Speaker 2: an AI term for is AI compatible with human values? Now? 608 00:33:28,604 --> 00:33:31,044 Speaker 2: Whose values are these? And what's it mean to be compatible? 609 00:33:31,084 --> 00:33:36,644 Speaker 2: Are big open questions. But basically Open Eye is giving 610 00:33:36,724 --> 00:33:40,644 Speaker 2: up on much of the much of the pretense I 611 00:33:40,684 --> 00:33:45,444 Speaker 2: suppose of being an AI safety company, and instead, you know, 612 00:33:45,524 --> 00:33:49,764 Speaker 2: Sam Baltman is just saying the benefits outweigh the risks. 613 00:33:50,644 --> 00:33:54,404 Speaker 2: In a recent post, for example, he claims that we 614 00:33:54,484 --> 00:33:57,844 Speaker 2: will fix the climate, establish a space colony, and have 615 00:33:57,924 --> 00:34:01,044 Speaker 2: the discovery of all physics, and these will be commonplace 616 00:34:01,124 --> 00:34:04,924 Speaker 2: things in the age of AI with nearly limitless intelligence 617 00:34:04,924 --> 00:34:08,564 Speaker 2: and abundant energy. He claims, you know, when I talked 618 00:34:08,564 --> 00:34:10,364 Speaker 2: to when I talked to in twenty twenty two, I 619 00:34:10,404 --> 00:34:12,684 Speaker 2: guess it was he's like, yeah, I think that AI 620 00:34:12,764 --> 00:34:16,284 Speaker 2: will solve all of poverty. So he's he's kind of 621 00:34:16,324 --> 00:34:18,324 Speaker 2: a DJA. I think I don't mean that about his 622 00:34:18,364 --> 00:34:20,404 Speaker 2: personal life. I just mean that, like he is willing 623 00:34:20,444 --> 00:34:24,364 Speaker 2: to make this big gamble, not because he thinks said 624 00:34:24,404 --> 00:34:26,844 Speaker 2: it's to completely safe. He is clear that there are 625 00:34:26,884 --> 00:34:29,004 Speaker 2: these risks, but I think he thinks that the rewards 626 00:34:29,404 --> 00:34:30,604 Speaker 2: outstripped the risks. 627 00:34:31,244 --> 00:34:33,164 Speaker 1: And in the meantime, I mean, I'm not sure where 628 00:34:33,204 --> 00:34:36,044 Speaker 1: all this limitless energy is coming from. Because in the meantime, 629 00:34:36,084 --> 00:34:41,004 Speaker 1: we've got Microsoft making plans to reopen Three Mile Island 630 00:34:41,484 --> 00:34:46,004 Speaker 1: the nuclear power plant, because frankly, our power grid cannot 631 00:34:46,084 --> 00:34:48,804 Speaker 1: keep up with the demands of open AI and chat 632 00:34:48,924 --> 00:34:52,444 Speaker 1: GPT and what is happening there. So I think that people, 633 00:34:52,564 --> 00:34:54,924 Speaker 1: you know, when we talk about existential risk, where we're 634 00:34:54,964 --> 00:34:58,844 Speaker 1: talking about a lot of different things, but like the 635 00:34:59,004 --> 00:35:01,924 Speaker 1: energy demand is crazy. Like I'm very pro nuclear power, 636 00:35:02,084 --> 00:35:04,244 Speaker 1: Like I think that, you know, we should be building 637 00:35:04,644 --> 00:35:07,364 Speaker 1: a lot of safe nuclear power plants. Like I think 638 00:35:07,364 --> 00:35:10,484 Speaker 1: that that's a great way of how the world kind 639 00:35:10,484 --> 00:35:16,924 Speaker 1: of reach energy neutral status. But it's crazy that the 640 00:35:16,964 --> 00:35:21,364 Speaker 1: first time people have actually like talked about and thought, Okay, 641 00:35:21,444 --> 00:35:25,004 Speaker 1: you know, maybe maybe we can reopen this this power 642 00:35:25,044 --> 00:35:26,084 Speaker 1: plant that's been shut down. 643 00:35:26,164 --> 00:35:29,284 Speaker 2: Changed it, like give it some corporate confinity or something. 644 00:35:29,404 --> 00:35:30,484 Speaker 2: Don't call it three Mile Island. 645 00:35:30,524 --> 00:35:33,804 Speaker 1: Let's see right, No, that's a really bad name. But yeah, 646 00:35:33,844 --> 00:35:36,444 Speaker 1: the first time that they're actually like, they're like okay, 647 00:35:36,484 --> 00:35:39,084 Speaker 1: Like before they're like no, no, no, like three Mile Island, 648 00:35:39,084 --> 00:35:41,404 Speaker 1: horrible disaster, blah blah blah. And then they're like, oh, 649 00:35:41,564 --> 00:35:43,604 Speaker 1: open AI needs it. You know, we need it for 650 00:35:45,004 --> 00:35:48,364 Speaker 1: being able to do memes with chat GBT. Hey, everyone 651 00:35:48,764 --> 00:35:52,124 Speaker 1: ask chat GPT this. Okay, let's let's reopen this. So 652 00:35:52,164 --> 00:35:55,684 Speaker 1: it's just, you know, it's just absolutely backwards and to me, 653 00:35:56,284 --> 00:35:59,324 Speaker 1: like a really perplexing state of affairs that he would say, oh, 654 00:35:59,404 --> 00:36:02,404 Speaker 1: you know, you know, we're solving everything. But so far, 655 00:36:03,364 --> 00:36:05,324 Speaker 1: what I see is that they haven't solved a lot, 656 00:36:05,564 --> 00:36:08,524 Speaker 1: and most of what they've done, you know, is actually 657 00:36:09,764 --> 00:36:14,044 Speaker 1: things that have been both physically polluting the world and 658 00:36:14,364 --> 00:36:18,684 Speaker 1: just polluting my head by creating an Internet full of 659 00:36:18,844 --> 00:36:24,884 Speaker 1: just absolute like hallucinatory bullshit that is really difficult to 660 00:36:24,924 --> 00:36:28,364 Speaker 1: parse through. Makes goop. By the way Google results now, 661 00:36:28,684 --> 00:36:30,964 Speaker 1: I don't know about unit, but like I'm looking for 662 00:36:31,004 --> 00:36:34,124 Speaker 1: a new search engine because it's unusable. I'm like, what 663 00:36:34,204 --> 00:36:36,364 Speaker 1: the fuck? You know? I try, I try to search 664 00:36:36,404 --> 00:36:39,924 Speaker 1: for something. It's good to searches, and it's just I 665 00:36:40,164 --> 00:36:41,764 Speaker 1: just want it. Can I just rant about this for 666 00:36:41,844 --> 00:36:44,244 Speaker 1: one second? It seems like you want to join me now, Like, 667 00:36:44,324 --> 00:36:47,244 Speaker 1: first we have this AI summary, which is usually wrong, 668 00:36:47,604 --> 00:36:50,844 Speaker 1: like it's actually given me like absolutely incorrect information in 669 00:36:50,844 --> 00:36:52,524 Speaker 1: that summer and I'm like, wait, no, I know this 670 00:36:52,604 --> 00:36:55,564 Speaker 1: is not true, this is not at all. And then 671 00:36:55,604 --> 00:36:58,484 Speaker 1: it's all these anyway, and now it's just completely unusable. 672 00:36:58,644 --> 00:37:00,884 Speaker 1: I'll let you interrupt me, because you look like you 673 00:37:00,924 --> 00:37:01,684 Speaker 1: have something to say. 674 00:37:01,724 --> 00:37:03,724 Speaker 2: No, I don't. I mean, so a lot of it's 675 00:37:03,804 --> 00:37:07,004 Speaker 2: driven by ads, right, but yeah, the aioorviews are often 676 00:37:07,044 --> 00:37:09,924 Speaker 2: not very good. And the whole point of search engine 677 00:37:10,004 --> 00:37:11,524 Speaker 2: is I don't want your fucking summary of it. I 678 00:37:11,524 --> 00:37:14,084 Speaker 2: want to go to a website, right, I want to 679 00:37:14,164 --> 00:37:17,244 Speaker 2: choose which website I go to. Just give me a 680 00:37:17,244 --> 00:37:19,444 Speaker 2: list of good fucking websites, Google, And instead you have 681 00:37:19,444 --> 00:37:21,284 Speaker 2: this like AI summary, which I think is a product 682 00:37:21,284 --> 00:37:26,964 Speaker 2: that is frankly behind both chatchipt and Claude, which is 683 00:37:26,964 --> 00:37:32,364 Speaker 2: the anthropic product. And I think Google is terrified because say, 684 00:37:32,524 --> 00:37:37,724 Speaker 2: Google developed the transformer algorithm, right, Google has harnessed a 685 00:37:37,804 --> 00:37:40,244 Speaker 2: lot of the talent but they've had for years, they've 686 00:37:40,284 --> 00:37:45,044 Speaker 2: had like a brain drain and more. Why that is 687 00:37:45,084 --> 00:37:48,084 Speaker 2: for internal cultural reasons, I won't speculate, but like, but 688 00:37:48,404 --> 00:37:51,204 Speaker 2: I wish that Google didn't like shove this mediocre version 689 00:37:51,204 --> 00:37:54,564 Speaker 2: of AI for its once very wonderful search product in 690 00:37:54,604 --> 00:37:56,284 Speaker 2: our in our face. That that really annoys me. 691 00:37:56,884 --> 00:38:02,004 Speaker 1: Yeah, but we're it really annoys me too. And you know, listeners, 692 00:38:02,004 --> 00:38:05,364 Speaker 1: please recommend a good search engine that you actually trust, 693 00:38:05,364 --> 00:38:09,524 Speaker 1: that gives reliable results instead of Google, because it's just 694 00:38:09,564 --> 00:38:12,244 Speaker 1: it's just killing me. But this kind of drek, I mean, 695 00:38:12,284 --> 00:38:14,564 Speaker 1: that's one of the things that we're seeing so far. 696 00:38:14,684 --> 00:38:18,084 Speaker 1: It hasn't revolutionized humanity. It's created a lot of drek 697 00:38:18,284 --> 00:38:22,084 Speaker 1: or slop as as some writers have called it. And 698 00:38:22,404 --> 00:38:26,124 Speaker 1: you know, the the Internet is it's you know, it's 699 00:38:26,204 --> 00:38:30,924 Speaker 1: more difficult to use. And when I go to look for, 700 00:38:31,044 --> 00:38:33,844 Speaker 1: you know, answers to things, oftentimes I can't figure out. 701 00:38:34,044 --> 00:38:37,364 Speaker 1: Unless I go to like, you know, Bloomberg right or 702 00:38:37,444 --> 00:38:40,364 Speaker 1: The New York Times or just a site that I 703 00:38:40,564 --> 00:38:43,364 Speaker 1: know to be trustworthy, I can't even figure it out. 704 00:38:43,404 --> 00:38:45,964 Speaker 1: And even then, if I go to ESPN, they have 705 00:38:46,324 --> 00:38:48,764 Speaker 1: articles that have been written by chatbots right by chat 706 00:38:48,764 --> 00:38:53,604 Speaker 1: GBT by other AI kind of large language models, and 707 00:38:54,044 --> 00:38:58,004 Speaker 1: they often create fake names and fake photographs. And I'm 708 00:38:58,284 --> 00:39:01,724 Speaker 1: singling out ESPN because I know it doesn't I don't know, 709 00:39:01,964 --> 00:39:04,924 Speaker 1: you know what other sites do it, but it's it's 710 00:39:04,964 --> 00:39:08,444 Speaker 1: a problem where I, you know, before I was thinking 711 00:39:08,444 --> 00:39:11,164 Speaker 1: of p doom in terms of like the world's going 712 00:39:12,044 --> 00:39:14,924 Speaker 1: to help and we're going to not survive, but also 713 00:39:14,964 --> 00:39:17,324 Speaker 1: there's like a p doom of my brain and of 714 00:39:17,404 --> 00:39:19,764 Speaker 1: the usability of the Internet. And I'm like, what the 715 00:39:19,764 --> 00:39:23,644 Speaker 1: hell is happening right, Like this is really cognitive load 716 00:39:23,724 --> 00:39:26,244 Speaker 1: is going up. It's over taxing me, and like I 717 00:39:26,284 --> 00:39:28,204 Speaker 1: don't want to have to deal with this, Like just 718 00:39:28,284 --> 00:39:32,484 Speaker 1: give me real articles, real information, real people, like things 719 00:39:32,564 --> 00:39:36,284 Speaker 1: I can trust, and don't give me. Don't force me 720 00:39:36,364 --> 00:39:39,084 Speaker 1: to have to like figure out you know, two paragraphs 721 00:39:39,084 --> 00:39:41,444 Speaker 1: in Wait, this is definitely not written by a human, 722 00:39:41,564 --> 00:39:43,204 Speaker 1: and I can't trust anything it says. 723 00:39:44,444 --> 00:39:46,484 Speaker 2: You know, Look, when Sam Altman says we're going to 724 00:39:47,364 --> 00:39:50,724 Speaker 2: solve all of physics, I mean that that to me. Uh, 725 00:39:51,524 --> 00:39:54,444 Speaker 2: I'm a little skeptical about that, right. I think we 726 00:39:54,524 --> 00:39:57,444 Speaker 2: kind of end up in like many universes where AI 727 00:39:57,724 --> 00:40:02,844 Speaker 2: is a highly useful product maybe not good for society, 728 00:40:02,884 --> 00:40:05,884 Speaker 2: maybe not. But like, I don't know, I don't really 729 00:40:05,964 --> 00:40:09,324 Speaker 2: think that we're going to solve all of physics through 730 00:40:10,564 --> 00:40:13,604 Speaker 2: deep learning, right, I mean, I, you know, to extrapolate 731 00:40:13,684 --> 00:40:17,404 Speaker 2: out to these super human accomplishments from doing human things, well, 732 00:40:17,444 --> 00:40:18,924 Speaker 2: I think it's I think the jury is still out 733 00:40:18,924 --> 00:40:20,364 Speaker 2: and where that will occur or not. I mean, look, 734 00:40:22,364 --> 00:40:24,404 Speaker 2: should your pea doom be going up as a result 735 00:40:25,404 --> 00:40:28,604 Speaker 2: of this, I suppose though for me it kind of 736 00:40:28,604 --> 00:40:33,484 Speaker 2: seems like the inevitable game theory optimal out come anyway, right, 737 00:40:33,564 --> 00:40:36,244 Speaker 2: is that people pursue profit in the capitalist system, and 738 00:40:36,284 --> 00:40:38,804 Speaker 2: that you know, and that it's the role of the 739 00:40:38,804 --> 00:40:41,764 Speaker 2: public sector decide if, how and when we want to 740 00:40:42,044 --> 00:40:46,804 Speaker 2: regulate AI companies. Gavin Newsome vetoed and AI regulation bill 741 00:40:46,844 --> 00:40:48,684 Speaker 2: actually had passed the California Congress. 742 00:40:48,844 --> 00:40:51,124 Speaker 1: So yeah, that was that was kind of crazy, and 743 00:40:51,164 --> 00:40:55,124 Speaker 1: his justification for doing it was kind of crazy. You know, 744 00:40:55,204 --> 00:40:59,844 Speaker 1: he said that it's only targeting certain companies. That's fine, Okay, 745 00:40:59,884 --> 00:41:03,044 Speaker 1: pass it and then do another one to target other companies. 746 00:41:03,404 --> 00:41:05,724 Speaker 1: But yeah, I think that I think that this is 747 00:41:05,764 --> 00:41:09,164 Speaker 1: a really kind of interesting situation that we're in right now. 748 00:41:09,884 --> 00:41:13,044 Speaker 1: I'm curious to see how it evolves. But I wish, 749 00:41:13,204 --> 00:41:15,164 Speaker 1: you know, I wish that we weren't taking such a 750 00:41:15,204 --> 00:41:18,804 Speaker 1: toll on you know, collective brain power, on environment, on 751 00:41:19,324 --> 00:41:22,404 Speaker 1: other things as we wait to see what regulation will 752 00:41:22,404 --> 00:41:24,764 Speaker 1: happen and what will actually happen. Do you have a 753 00:41:24,804 --> 00:41:26,924 Speaker 1: percentage for your new P doom or not? 754 00:41:27,124 --> 00:41:27,404 Speaker 2: Really? 755 00:41:27,724 --> 00:41:29,044 Speaker 1: You know, we're not going to put numbers. 756 00:41:29,284 --> 00:41:31,364 Speaker 2: Given enough percentages today, I feel like I give the 757 00:41:31,404 --> 00:41:32,044 Speaker 2: exact number. 758 00:41:33,124 --> 00:41:36,404 Speaker 1: That's fair, that's fair. But yes, I now have two 759 00:41:36,404 --> 00:41:39,484 Speaker 1: P dooms. I have my PE doom with the capital D, 760 00:41:40,204 --> 00:41:42,404 Speaker 1: which is kind of the world destroying, and I have 761 00:41:42,524 --> 00:41:45,444 Speaker 1: a lowercase P doom, which is my brain blowing up 762 00:41:45,564 --> 00:41:48,404 Speaker 1: because of all of the bullshit that's happening on the Internet. 763 00:41:49,164 --> 00:41:51,684 Speaker 1: So this is just my play, Like, let's let's try 764 00:41:51,764 --> 00:41:54,364 Speaker 1: to reverse some of this, and let's try to make 765 00:41:54,724 --> 00:41:59,804 Speaker 1: the internet back into a usable experience, because otherwise we're 766 00:41:59,804 --> 00:42:01,924 Speaker 1: going to have to it's about to say, otherwise we're 767 00:42:01,924 --> 00:42:04,364 Speaker 1: going to have to just keep go to libraries again 768 00:42:04,484 --> 00:42:06,604 Speaker 1: and like just rely on paper. But we can't even 769 00:42:06,644 --> 00:42:10,204 Speaker 1: do that because libraries have become inundated with books that 770 00:42:10,244 --> 00:42:13,564 Speaker 1: have been written by any guys and librarians have to 771 00:42:13,604 --> 00:42:15,764 Speaker 1: know try to figure out what the hell to do 772 00:42:15,844 --> 00:42:18,724 Speaker 1: with this. So it's a problem that's just permeating everywhere, 773 00:42:19,564 --> 00:42:22,684 Speaker 1: and I'm not happy about it. And on that note, 774 00:42:22,684 --> 00:42:26,004 Speaker 1: I think, I think we've talked a lot today about 775 00:42:26,044 --> 00:42:31,564 Speaker 1: about some interesting trends, and I'm very curious to see 776 00:42:31,564 --> 00:42:33,844 Speaker 1: how all of these different things will develop. And I'm 777 00:42:34,284 --> 00:42:36,404 Speaker 1: I would like to be an optimist and say that 778 00:42:36,444 --> 00:42:38,644 Speaker 1: things will get better, but I don't know. 779 00:42:38,764 --> 00:42:40,924 Speaker 2: I used to, and I think I'm an optimis I mean, 780 00:42:40,964 --> 00:42:43,844 Speaker 2: think about how nurotic most people are, right compared to 781 00:42:43,884 --> 00:42:45,484 Speaker 2: most people, I'm an optimist. 782 00:42:45,204 --> 00:42:48,484 Speaker 1: All right? And these are two optimists signing off on this. 783 00:42:48,524 --> 00:42:49,884 Speaker 2: Week's Risky Business. 784 00:43:03,804 --> 00:43:06,844 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kannakova. 785 00:43:06,684 --> 00:43:07,684 Speaker 2: And me Mate Silver. 786 00:43:08,004 --> 00:43:11,644 Speaker 1: The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. 787 00:43:12,324 --> 00:43:16,204 Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer 788 00:43:16,244 --> 00:43:19,804 Speaker 1: is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. 789 00:43:20,164 --> 00:43:22,524 Speaker 2: And if you want to listen to an AD free version, 790 00:43:22,564 --> 00:43:25,204 Speaker 2: sign up for Pushkin Plus. For six sinety nine a month, 791 00:43:25,444 --> 00:43:28,484 Speaker 2: you get access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in. 792 00:43:29,564 --> 00:43:29,604 Speaker 1: J