Speaker 1: First as the war between Hamas and Israel rages on.
Speaker 1: Russian President Vladimir Putin is in China today, meeting with
Speaker 1: President Shijin Ping in an international forum. It's Putin's first
Speaker 1: major international trip since the International Criminal Court indicted him
Speaker 1: for war crimes in Ukraine, and.
Speaker 2: Just a few hours ago, the Russian President arrived in
Speaker 2: Beijing to meet with his dear friend Shijin Ping. Officially,
Speaker 2: Putin is there for the Belt and Road Forum for
Speaker 2: International Cooperation, but the visit is also seen as a
Speaker 2: showcase of the leaders no limits partnership amid rising tensions
Speaker 2: in the Middle East.
Speaker 3: When China's President Shijinping welcomed Russia's President Vladimir Putin in
Speaker 3: Beijing this week, the two leaders hope to show the
Speaker 3: world a picture of unshakable unity and strength against their
Speaker 3: Western adversaries, especially the US. They've pledged a no limits
Speaker 3: friendship and forged a close trading relationship that's been critical
Speaker 3: to each of their economies. Bloomberg's Rebecca Chung Wilkins reports
Speaker 3: this partnership between Russia and China is increasingly complicated by
Speaker 3: Russia's costly war in Ukraine. China's broader global ambitions and
Speaker 3: now by the escalating conflict in Israel and Gaza.
Speaker 4: This nature of the China Russia rationis ship has often
Speaker 4: been described as sort of the sibling rivalry. But this
Speaker 4: idea of the older brother and the younger brother. And
Speaker 4: you know, when Mao first went to the Soviet Union,
Speaker 4: it was clear that the US star was the older
Speaker 4: brother and China was the younger. That partnership has completely switched,
Speaker 4: and that really is because of that economic dependency.
Speaker 3: I'm Weskasova today on the big take Hijin Ping and
Speaker 3: Vladimir Putin test the limits of their limitless friendship. Rebecca,
Speaker 3: welcome back, good to see you.
Speaker 4: Thank you very much for having me. It's pleasure to
Speaker 4: be You.
Speaker 3: Have been very busy in the past week trying to
Speaker 3: pull apart the different threads of the meeting between Xijinping
Speaker 3: and Vladimir Putin. And there's a lot to talk about here.
Speaker 3: I want to dig into all of it, but as
Speaker 3: with everything these days, it's being overshadowed by what's happening
Speaker 3: in Israel and Gaza, and that too has become part
Speaker 3: of the China Russia relationship. Can you just talk a
Speaker 3: bit about what's at stake for Ji and Putin there.
Speaker 4: Well, I think for China in a way, the role
Speaker 4: that China can play as a peacemaker and its own
Speaker 4: desire to sort of be seen as a neutral mediator,
Speaker 4: as a responsible statesman on the world stage has really
Speaker 4: come to define the sort of modern relationship between Putin
Speaker 4: and Si dimping. And we see that again with the
Speaker 4: Israel Hamas conflict, and we have seen a chorus of
Speaker 4: voices from Palestinian Envoi to Beijing, from the Israeli envoy
Speaker 4: to Beijing, Anty Blincoln, all saying that China should step
Speaker 4: up and do more. And Blinken's sort of specific request
Speaker 4: here is that China use some of the leverage that
Speaker 4: it has with Iran to prevent the crisis from escalating.
Speaker 4: And the sort of worry from the US point of
Speaker 4: view is that the militant group has blow may also
Speaker 4: be drawn into this war. And so we see this
Speaker 4: pressure on China globally to take on a bigger role.
Speaker 4: There is this question of just how much influenced China
Speaker 4: has really in this part of the world. It has
Speaker 4: sought to build out its influence in the Middle East
Speaker 4: and to try and challenge some of the US dominance
Speaker 4: and the US relationships in the Middle East in recent years.
Speaker 4: And China did preside over this diplomatic deal to resume
Speaker 4: ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It was a really
Speaker 4: important deal. But we have seen she's trying to take
Speaker 4: up more of that role, and so that is the
Speaker 4: sort of question mark when it comes to the Israel
Speaker 4: Hamas conflict. The other element here, which I'm sure we'll
Speaker 4: get into, is whether or not China wants to wade
Speaker 4: into a geopolitical conflict that is just so complex. Its
Speaker 4: strategic ties and its partnership with Russia, in a way
Speaker 4: comparatively are much clearer. The Middle East conflict is infinitely
Speaker 4: more complex, and.
Speaker 3: For Vladimir Putin the calculation is somewhat different. I imagine
Speaker 3: you write that in one way this benefits Putin because
Speaker 3: the world's attention is now drawn away from his war
Speaker 3: in Ukraine and toward the Middle East once again, and
Speaker 3: questions about where Western aid, military and humanitarian will go. Yeah.
Speaker 4: I think there's two sort of big points. The first is,
Speaker 4: as you mentioned, the Israel Hamas conflict, there's a distraction
Speaker 4: away from what he is trying to engineer in Ukraine,
Speaker 4: and I'm sure the Ukrainian leader Zelenski is concerned that
Speaker 4: the world sort of spotlight has shifted away from the
Speaker 4: very real conflict that he is engaging in. The other
Speaker 4: element here, I think, is this sort of increasing concern
Speaker 4: over geopolitical tensions, over commodities and over disruption to markets
Speaker 4: and so on as well, which in some way sort
Speaker 4: of highlights the vulnerability of many Western nations really, after
Speaker 4: having sort of turned away from relying on Russia and
Speaker 4: turning to other sources, now finding themselves in another sort
Speaker 4: of geopolitically precarious situation. And there is this element too
Speaker 4: of what it means to be in, you know, the
Speaker 4: sort of so called alternative world order, what it means
Speaker 4: to be part of the shifting balance of power away
Speaker 4: from US led and US dominated forums and groupings that
Speaker 4: Russia of course is really important player.
Speaker 3: In, and Rebecca this idea of an alternative world order
Speaker 3: that Russia, Chines and other nations in their orbit will
Speaker 3: form this alternative to the West's economic and political dominance
Speaker 3: really is at the heart of what we're talking about
Speaker 3: and at the heart of this meeting that she and
Speaker 3: Putin had what exactly did they want to accomplish at
Speaker 3: this meeting.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you're totally right. That is at the
Speaker 4: heart of really where China and Russia see themselves as
Speaker 4: most aligned in the modern era. That is challenging the
Speaker 4: dominance of the US and this perception that the US
Speaker 4: and US led forums like NATO for example, are increasingly
Speaker 4: encroaching and increasingly posing a risk. And it is worth
Speaker 4: saying that while President Sees in Ping and some in
Speaker 4: Beijing may not be fully behind what Russia is doing
Speaker 4: in Ukraine, and there are very serious reservations that you know,
Speaker 4: many in China have over the seizure of sovereign territory
Speaker 4: and so on. But the reason for Russia, the reasons
Speaker 4: that Russia has put forward are certainly reasons that China
Speaker 4: feels sympathy for because of this long history and long
Speaker 4: distrust of NATO for example. And of course there's always
Speaker 4: this outstanding issue of Taiwan too, which China views as
Speaker 4: a renegade province. Now, in any potential invasion scenario, were
Speaker 4: China to seize Taiwan by force, no matter how unlikely
Speaker 4: that is, Russia would be a lifeline. They would be
Speaker 4: providing supplies, military supplies, food, and possibly diplomatic support too.
Speaker 4: But there's also a cost because the more that people
Speaker 4: talk about the war in Ukraine, the more heightened these
Speaker 4: concerns are over a potential conflict scenario in Taiwan, which, frankly,
Speaker 4: I think before the invasion of Ukraine, it was hard
Speaker 4: for anyone really to believe that some thing so unlikely
Speaker 4: could happen. But that reality is now starting to be
Speaker 4: discussed in capitals everywhere, Beijing, Brussels, London. That worry is heightened,
Speaker 4: and that for Beijing is also a risk.
Speaker 3: So the relationship between Russia and China has become even
Speaker 3: more complex than it was before, and a lot of
Speaker 3: it has to do with their economic positions. What does
Speaker 3: Putin want from gen now what does Russia need from China?
Speaker 4: Well, Russia has become increasingly dependent on China economically for
Speaker 4: the last twenty months. The last time that Putin was
Speaker 4: in Beijing, it was around the time of the Olympics,
Speaker 4: and he walked away with that sort of so called
Speaker 4: no limits friendship. Less than a month later he invaded Ukraine.
Speaker 4: And so in the last twenty months, the dynamics of
Speaker 4: the relationship have really shifted. As Russia has become more
Speaker 4: isolated on the world stage, it's increasing relied on China.
Speaker 4: So we see things like, for example, Chinese trade to
Speaker 4: Russia jumping more than fifty percent so far through this year,
Speaker 4: and we see the sort of rise of the use
Speaker 4: of the yurn in international payments. We see increasing exports
Speaker 4: of goods like mobile phones, cars and someone to make
Speaker 4: up for that shortfall as Western firms flee Russia.
Speaker 5: Russia is now the biggest buyer of Chinese cars. Imports
Speaker 5: have jumped fivefold as foreign automakers exit the Russian market.
Speaker 5: And cars are just part of the picture. There's oil, gas, electronics, clothing,
Speaker 5: and plenty more besides.
Speaker 4: So economically, that question of dependency, that's really the new
Speaker 4: dynamic that has emerged, and it is firmly establishing. I
Speaker 4: think Russia as the sort of junior partner in that relationship.
Speaker 4: And this nature of the China Russia relationship has often
Speaker 4: been described as sort of the sibling rivalry. But this
Speaker 4: idea of the older brother and the younger brother. And
Speaker 4: you know, when Mao first went to the Soviet Union,
Speaker 4: it was clear that the US star was the older
Speaker 4: brother and China was the younger. That partnership has completely switched,
Speaker 4: and that really is because of that economic dependency. As
Speaker 4: I say, China really is jumping in to make up
Speaker 4: all these gaps that Russia is now finding itself as
Speaker 4: a result of sanctions, and also it was a result
Speaker 4: of Western firms fleeing. So the question of cars is
Speaker 4: a really good example. We have seen this sort of
Speaker 4: huge jump in shipment of made in China vehicles, car parks,
Speaker 4: accessories jumped to about fourteen billion in the first eight
Speaker 4: months of this year, and it's because of things like example,
Speaker 4: only eight of Russia's fourteen passenger car plants in Russia
Speaker 4: are functioning at the moment, so it really is relying
Speaker 4: on China to funnel these types of goods to sort
Speaker 4: of keep society just up and running. That's sort of
Speaker 4: the economic element. The other element, I think is sort
Speaker 4: of the diplomatic element. Putin wants to counter this impression
Speaker 4: that he is increasingly isolated on the world stage. He
Speaker 4: has barely left Russia since the invasion, mainly going to
Speaker 4: a handful of former Soviet states for these short visits,
Speaker 4: and that sort of isolation has increased since the Hague
Speaker 4: issued a warrant for his arrest for alleged war crimes.
Speaker 4: And so the forums like the Belt and Road Initiative
Speaker 4: are really these opportunities for Putin to go and stand
Speaker 4: on the world stage with countries that are perhaps more
Speaker 4: sympathetic to this idea of an alternative world order. It
Speaker 4: is worth saying that the fact that Putin is there
Speaker 4: standing on the world stage is also likely a reason
Speaker 4: that we have seen fewer foreign leaders wanting to go
Speaker 4: and in attendance at that Belt and Road forum. There
Speaker 4: is just the frank reality that there will of course
Speaker 4: be leaders who do not want to get on stage
Speaker 4: with Badamier Putin at a moment like this.
Speaker 3: After the break, what does China get from its alliance
Speaker 3: with Russia? Turning the camera now to the other side
Speaker 3: to China Energi Jinping. China also has a lot that
Speaker 3: it wants from the younger brother from Russia.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's true. I mean Russia is really China's major
Speaker 4: partner in this ambition to build a new world order.
Speaker 4: Russia is a sort of critical partner in that agenda,
Speaker 4: and Russia has been important in sort of establishing some
Speaker 4: of these China led alternatives to G twenty and G
Speaker 4: seven and so on, and so that question of the
Speaker 4: diplomatic support is certainly important. And then there is this
Speaker 4: sort of curious element of the personal relationship between season
Speaker 4: Ping and Putin, you know, sometimes described as something of
Speaker 4: a romance, even though they actually communicate through a translator,
Speaker 4: which is interesting. They don't share a common language, but
Speaker 4: they have these sort of commonalities that they both had
Speaker 4: fathers who were involved in the Second World War and
Speaker 4: fought in the Second World War. They're both leaders that
Speaker 4: are really interested in this idea of the national rejuvenation
Speaker 4: of their countries, and they're also have a very similar age.
Speaker 4: They've even sort of celebrated their various birthdays. I think Putin,
Speaker 4: for Sheetin Ping's birth in twenty nineteen, gave him a
Speaker 4: box of ice cream popsicles, for example. So there is
Speaker 4: this sort of personal element to the relationship that in
Speaker 4: some ways has stabilized what has been actually quite a
Speaker 4: fraught relationship historically between China and Russia.
Speaker 3: Rebecca, you talked about some of the things that Russia
Speaker 3: needs from China economically and China two benefits economically from Russia.
Speaker 4: Yes, that's absolutely true, and one of the key ways
Speaker 4: really has been as a buyer of discounted commodities. China
Speaker 4: has become the biggest buyer of Russia's fossil f yours
Speaker 4: and coal imports, for example, from Russia to China have
Speaker 4: more than doubled since twenty twenty, and so Russia is
Speaker 4: certainly helping China fill that need for more and also
Speaker 4: for diversified energy sources. It is worth saying China is
Speaker 4: still embracing that policy of diversification, and it isn't necessarily
Speaker 4: giving Russia everything at once. It's still holding out, for example,
Speaker 4: over power of Siberia too, which is the potential new
Speaker 4: massive gas pipeline. Now there's an interesting difference here in
Speaker 4: how Moscow and Beijing talk about this. Often Moscow talks
Speaker 4: about this imminent deal that is about to be proposed,
Speaker 4: whereas Beijing is often much more reticent. It hasn't really
Speaker 4: said much and there is no official contract so far.
Speaker 3: And just as Russia's economy is suffering from sanctions and
Speaker 3: other fallout from the invasion of Ukraine, China's economy two
Speaker 3: has been going through a very difficult patch and Russia
Speaker 3: is helping to fill in some of those gaps.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's worth noting that Chinese exports to Russia have
Speaker 4: been a rare bright spot. So while overall outbound shipments
Speaker 4: from China are still sort of falling, the shipments from
Speaker 4: China into Russia have jumped more than fifty percent, as
Speaker 4: I mentioned, so far this year, so it is providing
Speaker 4: a little bit of reprieve. Still, it's a very asymmetric relationship.
Speaker 4: So China makes up about a fifth of Russian trade,
Speaker 4: whereas Russia makes up about two to three percent of
Speaker 4: trade for China, So there is still that veryly obvious
Speaker 4: imbalance in the relationship.
Speaker 3: Rebecca, earlier you talked about this unlimited friendship that the
Speaker 3: two leaders pledge for each other. But we see limits
Speaker 3: of all kinds, and one of them is over China's
Speaker 3: unwillingness to fully back Russia in its work against Ukraine.
Speaker 4: Yes, I think that's right. The last twenty months, if anything,
Speaker 4: have showed that there are indeed limits to China's relationship
Speaker 4: with Russia. And it's interesting. We spoke with one former
Speaker 4: Chinese diplomat, very influential academic in China, Huangi Wai, who
Speaker 4: pointed to these red lines in the relationship, and one
Speaker 4: of those is this issue of nuclear weapons, and China
Speaker 4: has been explicit to say and to sort of almost
Speaker 4: preemptively say that it condemns the use of nuclear weapons
Speaker 4: in the conflict, and that it condemns the attack of
Speaker 4: civilians as well. So it has sort of highlighted these
Speaker 4: areas where clearly it would be uncomfortable. The interesting thing
Speaker 4: that Wangi Wa pointed to when he gave me that
Speaker 4: example was that China, he said, itself, has faced nuclear
Speaker 4: back mail at the hands of Russia. And he was
Speaker 4: talking about this border conflict back in nineteen sixty nine
Speaker 4: where China felt under threat that the USSR might use
Speaker 4: nuclear weapons as they had this dispute over parts of
Speaker 4: their shared border. And it does speak to this more
Speaker 4: fraud or more complex history. There is still some distrust
Speaker 4: of Russia in circles in Beijing. There is not a
Speaker 4: full throttle support for Russia. And even for those who
Speaker 4: do support Russia, Wang says, he says it's really more
Speaker 4: about supporting Russia's push against Western hegemony. It's sort of
Speaker 4: resistance to the US and to the West, rather than
Speaker 4: any notion of supporting Russia's incursion into sovereign territory that
Speaker 4: for China is a very uncomfortable sticking point.
Speaker 3: And another thing you write about that further complicates this
Speaker 3: relationship is that while the US and Russia really have
Speaker 3: no relationship now, China and the US are still very
Speaker 3: big trading partners, and there is a desire to reach
Speaker 3: some sort of working agreement between the two nations. In fact,
Speaker 3: Jijinping and Joe Biden are expected to meet in November.
Speaker 4: Yes, indeed, all signs are pointing to the fact that
Speaker 4: we are expecting to see this sit down between Susonping
Speaker 4: and President Joe Biden, and it does look like China
Speaker 4: is quite motivated to stabilize ties. I don't think there
Speaker 4: are expectations of any sort of concrete or major breakthroughs,
Speaker 4: but it's significant that they are sitting down. And part
Speaker 4: of that need for Beijing's point of view, is to
Speaker 4: sort of show that it's still willing to work with
Speaker 4: the international world, that it's open for business for foreign
Speaker 4: businesses too, and it hasn't sort of become this hostile
Speaker 4: strategic competitor that it believes the West tries to paint
Speaker 4: it as. It is worth also mentioning here that as
Speaker 4: we see China trying to improve ties with the US.
Speaker 4: This is one of those dynamics that historically has made
Speaker 4: Russia uncomfortable, and in fact, it was the pressure that
Speaker 4: Beijing felt from Russia that border conflict and of other
Speaker 4: issues that really compelled China to resume diplomatic ties with
Speaker 4: the US back in the seventies. So this dynamic with
Speaker 4: the US hanging over this partnership between China and Russia,
Speaker 4: and this worry by both parties that either Russia or
Speaker 4: China would side with the US and leave a third
Speaker 4: party out in the cold, is a sort of prevailing dynamic,
Speaker 4: and the relationships really important to remember when.
Speaker 3: We come back Wilshi Jinping's rise as a global power
Speaker 3: broker leave an isolated Vladimir Putin behind Rebecca. We started
Speaker 3: this conversation talking about how China and Russia are looking
Speaker 3: to form an alternative economic and political competitor to the West.
Speaker 3: Do you think moving forward that that becomes more durable,
Speaker 3: that that does happen.
Speaker 4: I think that China has had some successes in pushing
Speaker 4: that agenda, and particularly with the so called global self,
Speaker 4: with developing nations and in fact with certain countries in
Speaker 4: the Middle East too, And although, for example, if you
Speaker 4: look at that twelve point position paper that China put
Speaker 4: forward for a cease fire in Ukraine, that was met
Speaker 4: with some level of skepticism in Europe and in the US,
Speaker 4: but it did have some credibility among emerging nations, including
Speaker 4: countries like Brazil, for example. And so it is important
Speaker 4: that although there is some skepticism of China's neutrality, and
Speaker 4: certainly the criticism of its peace proposal has been that
Speaker 4: it very much favors Moscow, there aren't those same criticisms everywhere.
Speaker 4: And when we look at, for example, something like the
Speaker 4: Belt and Road initiative. Even as there has been a
Speaker 4: recalibration of how that financial lending has been extended and
Speaker 4: there is a pull in the amount of activity that
Speaker 4: we're seeing, quite a significant pullback, in fact, China has
Speaker 4: still built successfully this diplomatic clout and these diplomatic ties
Speaker 4: with countries who are themselves much more skeptical about the
Speaker 4: US and the motivations of the US in their various
Speaker 4: parts of the world.
Speaker 3: Rebecca, as you continue to report on this, what are
Speaker 3: you looking for as a sign of a further strengthening
Speaker 3: of the relationship between China and Russia, or perhaps signs
Speaker 3: of cracks in the friendship.
Speaker 4: The element to watch, and particularly for Suzimping, is just
Speaker 4: how long this conflict goes on for, because the longer
Speaker 4: it runs, the more delicate the position for C.
Speaker 5: Although c has failed to condemn the war explicitly, he
Speaker 5: has also said he supports Ukraine's sovereignty.
Speaker 6: It's pretty clear that the war as it unfolded is
Speaker 6: not something that presidents see or the Chinese would have chosen,
Speaker 6: and it remains very interlinked with the global economy, and
Speaker 6: this war was mainly.
Speaker 3: A problem for them.
Speaker 4: The worry, I think for China is that if this
Speaker 4: perceived coziness between Putin and Sea prevails, and the assumption
Speaker 4: is that it will prevail for as long as this
Speaker 4: invasion continues, there is this closer perception that China equals
Speaker 4: to Russia and Russia equals to China, and that is
Speaker 4: really a position that Beijing does not want. Beijing does
Speaker 4: not want to be perceived as economically or diplomatically isolated
Speaker 4: or willing to put itself in that position of isolation.
Speaker 4: And the other issue here for China is Taiwan seeing
Speaker 4: that invasion of Ukraine has really alerted nations, particularly China's
Speaker 4: Asian neighbors, to the risks of a Taiwan invasion. That's
Speaker 4: coupled with rising concerns over potential invasion of Taiwan by
Speaker 4: China and China's refusal to rule out taking the democratically
Speaker 4: run I learned by force, has heightened those fears in
Speaker 4: the US in particular. Now just to say it's a
Speaker 4: highly unlikely scenario, but the fact is, Russia's invasion of
Speaker 4: Ukraine has meant that everyone is talking about this. It's
Speaker 4: precisely the situation that China doesn't want and that I
Speaker 4: think is sort of the prevailing worry, the longer term
Speaker 4: worry for policymakers in China.
Speaker 3: Rebecca, I was great talking with you.
Speaker 4: Pleasure is mine. Thank you.
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to us here at The Big Take.
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Speaker 3: Email us questions comments to Big Take at Bloomberg dot net.
Speaker 3: The supervising producer of The Big Take is Vicky Rgalina.
Speaker 3: Our Senior producer is Katherine Fink. This episode was produced
Speaker 3: by Sam Gebauer and Zenob Sidiki Kilde Garcia is our engineer.
Speaker 3: Our original music was composed by Leo Sidrin. I'm West Kasova.
Speaker 3: We'll be back on Monday with another big take. Have
Speaker 3: a great weekend.