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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 2: US live weekdays at noon Eastern on emocarplaying Thenrouno with

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get

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Speaker 2: your podcasts a watch US live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: The Russian response to Ukraine's use of US provided attack

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Speaker 3: EM's missiles across the border, striking offensively against Russia, which

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Speaker 3: prompted a reaction from Vladimir Putin lowering the threshold for

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Speaker 3: a nuclear strike in response to a broader range of

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Speaker 3: conventional attacks. Now, the US response right now is no response.

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Speaker 3: As I mentioned earlier, it recalls the movie War Games.

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Speaker 3: The only way to win is not to play. But

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Speaker 3: it's pretty hard to not play when things are unfolding

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Speaker 3: before your eyes like this. And that's where we want

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Speaker 3: to start our conversation with Chuck Fleischman, the Republican congressman

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Speaker 3: from Tennessee's third District, is with US live from Capitol

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Speaker 3: Hill right now. Congressman, it's good to see you. Welcome

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Speaker 3: back to Bloomberg. I'm supposed to ask you about this

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Speaker 3: funding deadline, and we'll get to that. I have a

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Speaker 3: lot of questions about the Lame Duck, but you have

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Speaker 3: an important viewpoint on this story as co chair of

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Speaker 3: the Nuclear Security Working Group and from your position with

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Speaker 3: your specialty and energy, I know you're focused on this closely.

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Speaker 3: How important? How dangerous is this development today that you're

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Speaker 3: seeing coming out of Russia with a new nuclear doctrine.

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Speaker 4: This is very dangerous.

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Speaker 5: The rhetoric from Vladimir Putin over the past several months,

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Speaker 5: including today, has been very dangerous in terms of threatening

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Speaker 5: the use.

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Speaker 4: Of a nuclear weapon.

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Speaker 5: This should be condemned universally across the world because we

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Speaker 5: cannot have that kind of talk coming from any of

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Speaker 5: the nuclear leaders in the world. Russia has a nuclear arsenal,

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Speaker 5: sure you. The United States has the best, strongest nuclear arsenal.

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Speaker 5: I fund it through the Department of Energy, the NNSA.

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Speaker 5: We are well prepared, but we want to make sure

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Speaker 5: that we lower the temperature and have a strong statement

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Speaker 5: that there can never be the use of a nuclear weapon,

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Speaker 5: even a tactical nuclear weapon, a smaller one on the battlefield.

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Speaker 5: It would escalate beyond what we could just even fathom.

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Speaker 5: It's ridiculous, it's wrong. It must be condemned.

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Speaker 3: What do you make of the response, the non response,

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Speaker 3: if you will, from the US Congressman. And how worried

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Speaker 3: are you that Vladimir Putin will try to take advantage

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Speaker 3: of the remainder of the Biden administration to do some

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Speaker 3: damage here before Donald Trump is in office.

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Speaker 5: Well, I can't wait for January twentieth to get here.

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Speaker 5: This is why I believe that President Trump will get

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Speaker 5: in sit down with Zelensky and with Putin and bring

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Speaker 5: this horrific situation, this sad chapter in world history, to

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Speaker 5: a close. But the reality is, we've got to be

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Speaker 5: very careful day to day. We do not want this

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Speaker 5: to escalate, to spread, and God forbid, we do not

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Speaker 5: want to see the use of a nuclear weapon on

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Speaker 5: the battlefield or anywhere else. That's why we have a

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Speaker 5: strong nuclear deterrent in our country. That's why we have

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Speaker 5: built that up. But for Putin to engage in this

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Speaker 5: type of rhetoric is wrong.

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Speaker 4: He needs to pull it back.

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Speaker 3: Well, do you think this strengthens the use of the

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Speaker 3: attack of strengthens President Zelenski's hand if he is about

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Speaker 3: to approach the negotiating table with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin,

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Speaker 3: Assuming that happens because when we look at the map

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Speaker 3: of territory that's been occupied by Russia, that seems to

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Speaker 3: be a lot to ask for the Ukrainians. In fact,

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Speaker 3: they say they won't entertain handing that landover, whether it's

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Speaker 3: the Donbass or Crimea.

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Speaker 5: What do you think, Well, there's absolutely no question that

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Speaker 5: on the ground, if you look at the Ukrainian map

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Speaker 5: that the Russians have made tremendous gains across the country,

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Speaker 5: there's been.

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Speaker 4: A tremendous cost to them.

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Speaker 5: Their casualties are high, they've gotten even higher.

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Speaker 4: This has not been.

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Speaker 5: An easy war for Putin. His losses are horrific, so

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Speaker 5: he's probably looking for an exit strategy.

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Speaker 4: I will say this.

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Speaker 5: Ukraine has lost a lot of land. There's probably going

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Speaker 5: to have to be some type of a compromise. I

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Speaker 5: think the only person with credibility to get both parties

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Speaker 5: to the table is Donald Trump. The rest of the

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Speaker 5: world has basically been engaged in a very sad spectator sport.

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Speaker 5: Trump will probably put this to an end quickly. But

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Speaker 5: I don't know what that compromise looks like. But we

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Speaker 5: have got to stop the carnage.

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Speaker 3: Well, Congressman, you're back in Washington with your colleagues here

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Speaker 3: with the to do list in the lame duck session,

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Speaker 3: and I would love to get into some of the asks,

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Speaker 3: beginning with funding the government. You know everyone's going to

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Speaker 3: start running their countdown clocks. Tomorrow is one month out

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Speaker 3: from December twenty and the lapse of funding. There is

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Speaker 3: a debate right now about whether you should clear the

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Speaker 3: decks for Donald Trump by extending, by kicking the can

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Speaker 3: well into next year. Some say March, some say September.

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Speaker 3: Others say no, Donald Trump should have a hand in

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Speaker 3: running the next budget that comes to the nation.

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Speaker 5: What do you think, Well, I think we need to

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Speaker 5: hear from President Trump on this. I'm very solicitous of

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Speaker 5: his thoughts. The fiscal year began for our country October first.

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Speaker 5: We have a continuing resolution, as you alluded to, to December twentieth.

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Speaker 5: By that time, we either have to have a budget

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Speaker 5: in place and a deal or go into next year.

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Speaker 5: It'd be my vote to basically get it done this year.

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Speaker 5: President Trump's going to have a lot on his plate

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Speaker 5: with budget reconciliation, with taxes and other issues that the nation.

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Speaker 4: The border has to be addressed.

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Speaker 5: We don't want to necessarily have this appropriation situation on

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Speaker 5: his plate.

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Speaker 4: Unless he wants it on his plate.

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Speaker 5: So the reality is, the sooner we get a budget done,

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Speaker 5: the better clean it up and let President Trump go

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Speaker 5: into a new, clean administration a new year. However, if

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Speaker 5: President Trump feels differently, we'll be glad to entertain that.

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Speaker 3: Okay, So, if it we're up to you, would you

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Speaker 3: prefer March or September? And would that continuing resolution include

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Speaker 3: the millions of dollars the hundreds of millions that the

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Speaker 3: Biden administration asked for to clean up from the hurricanes

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Speaker 3: that partially impacted your state.

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Speaker 5: Well, certainly we need disaster relief. I don't know what

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Speaker 5: that passage looks like. President Biden put forth a letter

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Speaker 5: today to the Speaker of the House in that regard. Ultimately,

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Speaker 5: I think we need some type of disaster relief, but

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Speaker 5: that would be in terms of a supplemental addition to

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Speaker 5: the budget. My preference would be get a deal done

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Speaker 5: on the overall appropriations package by December twentieth.

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Speaker 4: There's some problems with that.

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Speaker 5: Practically, though the House and Senate are one hundred billion

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Speaker 5: dollars apart, the Senate is much higher. I don't know

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Speaker 5: whether or not Senator Schumer would deal. He'd be a

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Speaker 5: fool not to deal, giving what we're going to see

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Speaker 5: with Republicans in charge of the House, Senate and White

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Speaker 5: House next year. But once again, I think the sooner

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Speaker 5: we get a budget for our country, the better. I

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Speaker 5: would have preferred to see a budget September thirtieth, going

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Speaker 5: into October first. We didn't get that, so I would

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Speaker 5: take December twentieth, but if not, we'll go into March.

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Speaker 3: That's the view from a member of the Appropriations Committee.

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Speaker 3: We should note, with your interest in energy, Congressman and

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Speaker 3: your position in Congress, I would love to hear from

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Speaker 3: you on Donald Trump's pick for the Energy Department. Everyone

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Speaker 3: is obsessing over a lot of other picks, but not

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Speaker 3: so much Chris Wright. He's the CEO of Liberty Energy,

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Speaker 3: said to be an innovator when it comes to fracking,

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Speaker 3: and someone who will look to undo the Inflation Reduction

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Speaker 3: Act and some of the incentives that came along with it.

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Speaker 3: Is he the right pick for the job?

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Speaker 5: Well, I applaud President Elect Trump for this choice.

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Speaker 4: I don't know Wright. We have reached out.

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Speaker 5: Hopefully I'll be able to speak with him because my subcommittee,

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Speaker 5: the Energy and Water Subcommittee, will fund the Department of Energy,

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Speaker 5: which includes the NNSA, which has the nuclear arsenal, but

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Speaker 5: also all of the energy endeavors. So I do look

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Speaker 5: forward to meeting and visiting with mister Wright, as well

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Speaker 5: as Governor Burgham, who's going to chair the Energy Council.

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Speaker 5: He's going to have Interior, but he's also going to

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Speaker 5: have this special new executive.

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Speaker 4: Branch Energy Council.

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Speaker 5: Ultimately, I'll be responsible for funding or not funding those endeavors.

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Speaker 5: But a good choice looks like an oil and gas person.

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Speaker 5: He's got good competence, he's got good business experience.

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Speaker 4: I was also pleased to see that he tends to

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Speaker 4: be pro nuclear. That's my space in Congress.

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Speaker 5: I'm the most pro nuclear power congress person in Congress.

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Speaker 5: I'm looking for somebody with whom I can continue that

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Speaker 5: great work that has been bipartisan by Cameron and has

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Speaker 5: gone through several administrations to promote American.

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Speaker 3: Nuclear I've been seeing a video that mister Wright said

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Speaker 3: there is no climate crisis and we are not in

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Speaker 3: the midst of an energy transition either. It's a quote

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Speaker 3: that has been repeatedly used over the past couple of

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Speaker 3: days since Donald Trump mentioned his name. I won't try

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Speaker 3: to relitigate the climate element with you here, but when

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Speaker 3: we talk about energy transition, he's presumably talking about green

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Speaker 3: will he in fact bring an energy transition back to nuclear? Congressman,

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Speaker 3: you just brought this up, and we know that the

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Speaker 3: great need for clean and renewable energy here and in

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Speaker 3: this case, uninterruptible energy from a nuclear source for the

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Speaker 3: data centers that are popping up like weeds all over

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Speaker 3: the country will have to be addressed in this next administration.

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Speaker 3: What would the new Energy secretary do and what would

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Speaker 3: you do in Congress to help him to that end?

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Speaker 4: Well, I thank you for that question.

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Speaker 5: I have worked with the Obama administration, the Trump administration,

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Speaker 5: and the Biden administration on a pro nuclear portfolio. All

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Speaker 5: three secretaries major Secretaries of Energy, whether it's Monice Perry

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Speaker 5: or Grand Home, have worked with me on those endeavors.

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Speaker 5: So we have moved forward this bipartisan and by caramel

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Speaker 5: support for that. I would expect that to continue under

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Speaker 5: Secretary right because I know that President Trump is infinitely

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Speaker 5: pro new nuclear, so that is important.

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Speaker 4: So it's going to be a continuation.

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Speaker 5: Of the funding model I have out for Fiscal twenty five,

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Speaker 5: built on Fiscal twenty four, it's a good, solid, pro

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Speaker 5: nuclear portfolio. Nuclear energy will be part of clean, carbon free, reliable,

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Speaker 5: resilient energy. So I think we're going to continue to

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Speaker 5: work in that direction, build on what we have. America

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Speaker 5: has moved into the space. We're strong in this space,

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Speaker 5: but we do need to get better. Our foes are

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Speaker 5: good at it, our friends are good at it, so

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Speaker 5: we need to continue to get better at it.

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump is on his way to Texas for the

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Speaker 3: big SpaceX starship launch. We're going to carry that here

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Speaker 3: on Bloomberg around five o'clock and our remaining moment, Congressman,

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Speaker 3: from your perch on the Science Committee, how important is

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Speaker 3: this flight test to succeed? For Elon Muskin, for NASA

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Speaker 3: to continue their planning to go to Mars.

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Speaker 5: I had the privilege of meeting Elon Busk when President

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Speaker 5: Trump brought him to our conference last week, and of course,

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Speaker 5: what did I speak with Elon about nuclear energy?

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Speaker 4: I gave my card and I said, let's talk nuclear But.

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Speaker 5: I applaud Elon with what he's done. I wish him

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Speaker 5: every success in his endeavors. In space, and I think

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Speaker 5: NASA and the country and the world can learn from

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Speaker 5: what he's doing. I applaud him, I compliment him, and

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Speaker 5: I wish him future success.

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Speaker 3: All the chopsticks are going to be waiting. Congressman, we'll

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Speaker 3: all be watching together. Chuck Fleischman, Republican from Tennessee with

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Speaker 3: US Live from Capitol Hill. It's good to see you, sir.

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Speaker 3: Thank you for the insights today.

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Speaker 2: On Bloomberg, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power

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Speaker 2: podcast kens just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay

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Speaker 2: and then Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can

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Speaker 2: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New

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Speaker 2: York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump is headed to Texas today. You might have

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Speaker 3: heard me mentioned with Congressman Chuck Fleischman on his way

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Speaker 3: to Texas Brownsville for the big launch. This is SpaceX Starship.

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Speaker 3: Five pm Eastern time is the start of the launch window.

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Speaker 3: We're going to carry this for you. This is the

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Speaker 3: latest flight test that you heard Donald Trump talking about.

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Speaker 3: Remember the chopsticks. On the last one, the booster comes

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Speaker 3: back down, they catch it at the pad all that's

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Speaker 3: supposed to happen, and the weather is looking good, So

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Speaker 3: between five and five thirty pm Eastern time, you know,

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Speaker 3: you can always count on Bloomberg to bring you these launches.

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Speaker 3: This is a big one that you've got the President

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Speaker 3: elect there with the buddy in chief, Elon Musk, all

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Speaker 3: watching the launch. And a lot of this, of course

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Speaker 3: has to do with our return to the Moon, with

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Speaker 3: our return to Mars, and each stage, each flight test

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Speaker 3: is critically important to stay on track. So we're gonna

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Speaker 3: have a lot more from Texas a little bit later

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Speaker 3: on today, as reality may be setting in at mar

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Speaker 3: A Lago, not about SpaceX or Elon Musk, but about

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Speaker 3: Matt Gates headline of the New York Times. Gates may

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Speaker 3: not be confirmed, Trump admits he's pushing him in others anyway.

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Speaker 3: Maggie Haberman Jonathan Swan reporting that Donald Trump has been

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Speaker 3: on the phone, specifically calling senators to pressure them, knowing

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Speaker 3: that we may have even odds here in getting Matt Gates,

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Speaker 3: the now former Florida congressman, approved to run the Department

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Speaker 3: of Justice. It's where we start our conversation with our

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Speaker 3: political panel. Genie Shanzino is back with US today, senior

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Speaker 3: Democracy fellow with the Center for the Study of the

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Speaker 3: Presidency in Congress. Of course, Democratic analyst Bloomberg Politics contributor,

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Speaker 3: and Lisa Camuso Miller, Republican strategist, former RNC communications director

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Speaker 3: and host of the Friday Reporter podcast. Prepare for a

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Speaker 3: great conversation. Great to see both of you. Hear Genie

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Speaker 3: your thought on this. We've been talking about Matt Gaetz

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Speaker 3: since last week when the name first dropped.

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Speaker 4: Here.

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump is hearing all the same stuff that we are,

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Speaker 3: but is now appealing directly to senators.

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Speaker 6: Will it work, We don't know yet.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 6: The reality is is that these allegations, particularly for somebody

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Speaker 6: who is nominated to be the Attorney General of the

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Speaker 6: United States, the chief law enforcement official, whether these allegations

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Speaker 6: are true or not, and of course he denies them,

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Speaker 6: these are disqualifying. I mean, think back twenty years Tom

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Speaker 6: Dashel loses the nomination because he didn't pay taxes, you know,

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Speaker 6: Bill Richardson, That's how it used to work. Now we've

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Speaker 6: got somebody who is accused of these you know, crimes.

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Speaker 6: They are true, and again he says they are not

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Speaker 6: these would be disqualifying. But the reality is you've got

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Speaker 6: members of Congress who say, or the Senate who say

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Speaker 6: that they want to give the president's nominees a fair hearing,

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Speaker 6: and we'll have to see if that's true. But the

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Speaker 6: reality is is that Donald Trump, here's what we're all hearing,

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Speaker 6: and that is these are disqualifying allegations, less.

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Speaker 3: Than even odds of being confirmed to the Senate. The

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Speaker 3: line and Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan's column Lisa Enter

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Speaker 3: Elon Musk, who is not only supporting Matt Gates, but

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Speaker 3: he takes to Twitter to x and writes he is

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Speaker 3: the judge dread America needs to clean up a corrupt

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Speaker 3: system and put powerful bad actors in prison. Gates will

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Speaker 3: be our hammer of justice. How comic book is this

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Speaker 3: going to get in the next.

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Speaker 1: Couple weeks, Well till we're definitely on another side of things,

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Speaker 1: There's no question about it. And the thing about this

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Speaker 1: nomination is that I think we're all waiting to see.

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Speaker 1: Right there are definitely a lot of questions about whether

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Speaker 1: or not Matt Gates can be confirmed, But also too,

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Speaker 1: don't forget that we're living in a very different time.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump has got the control of the Senate, he's

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Speaker 1: got control of the House, but he also really likes

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Speaker 1: to win, and so to me, I think that he's

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Speaker 1: hearing everything that we're hearing. I think he's still very

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Speaker 1: much behind Matt Gates as a candidate for attorney general.

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Speaker 1: He's going to do everything he can to see that

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Speaker 1: he can make that happen. But also too, he's not

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Speaker 1: going to go far enough. He's not going to go

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Speaker 1: so far that he's going to lose that nomination himself

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Speaker 1: and have to go back to the drawing board. So

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of things are up in the air.

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Speaker 1: Like Jeanie said, I think we just don't yet know,

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Speaker 1: so we have to continue to watch. But I do

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Speaker 1: think that there are a lot of things in his

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Speaker 1: favor that are happening, and that is that he's got

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Speaker 1: people like Elon Musk, and he's got, by the way,

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Speaker 1: the support of the base of the party really behind him.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 1: I had someone tell me the other day that even

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Speaker 1: the folks who aren't really paying very close attention to

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Speaker 1: Matt Gates are saying that they're in face of him

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Speaker 1: because he is an outside of the box candidate and

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Speaker 1: so that too, is something that has to be fueling

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump's thought process as it goes through and as

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Speaker 1: he continues to make bone calls to the US Senate

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Speaker 1: about confirm it.

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Speaker 3: Now. Of course, the Ethics Committee is going to meet

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Speaker 3: tomorrow about whether or not to release this report. Genie

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Speaker 3: Speaker Johnson says no, it would set a horrible precedent

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Speaker 3: for former members, even though there are some instances where

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Speaker 3: this has happened before. But the top Republican on this committee,

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Speaker 3: the chair, Michael Guess, says he doesn't care, and the

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Speaker 3: panel will act independent of whatever the speaker says based

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Speaker 3: on when they meet the ranking member. His Democratic counterpart,

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Speaker 3: Susan Wilde, says she wants the report out. So we

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Speaker 3: can all agree this is going to happen, right, whether

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Speaker 3: it takes place publicly for the committee or the lawyer

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Speaker 3: is out there talking on behalf now of four women

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Speaker 3: apparently connected to Matt Gates or as you put yesterday

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Speaker 3: in the FBI report. So this information will be available

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Speaker 3: to senators who make this decision, right, Oh.

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Speaker 6: It absolutely will be. I mean the FBI check alone,

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Speaker 6: they're going to be able to pick up as much,

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Speaker 6: if not more, quite frankly than was picked up in

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Speaker 6: the House Ethics the House Ethics Committee. We don't know

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Speaker 6: if they'll release it, but don't forget there's ten members

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Speaker 6: of the committee, twenty eight or twenty nine staffers, the

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Speaker 6: ranking member on the Democratic side. You just mentioned wild

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Speaker 6: lost reelection. You know, what's to stop any of these

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Speaker 6: people from releasing two journalists? You know parts of this

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Speaker 6: or in full. So I think we get it out here.

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Speaker 6: But I think part of the troubling aspect of all

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Speaker 6: of this and whether we're talking about you know this

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Speaker 6: nominee Matt Gaetz or Peter Hegseth in DoD as, we

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Speaker 6: are not talking about qualifications to run these departments. All

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Speaker 6: of the focus has been on these allegations of sexual

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Speaker 6: misconduct than otherwise obviously disqualifying. But it should also be

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Speaker 6: distinguished that these are massive departments. I mean, the DoD

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Speaker 6: alone eight hundred billion dollar annual budget. What qualifications does

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Speaker 6: somebody like Pete Hegseth have to run that department? Two

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Speaker 6: million people? He'd be responsible for that the DoD employees.

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Speaker 6: Maybe he has those qualifications, but we don't care about

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Speaker 6: them or talk about them because all of the focus

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Speaker 6: once again has been on these you know, sort of

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Speaker 6: really troubling allegations, disqualifying but not having to do with

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Speaker 6: the qualifications of these individuals. And that's not to mention

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Speaker 6: Tulci Gabbert or of course maybe the worst defender RFK Junior,

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Speaker 6: who has, you know, zero qualifications in the area of

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Speaker 6: health and human services. A good attorney on environment, but

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Speaker 6: not health in human services.

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Speaker 3: You start to wonder if back Gates the best thing

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Speaker 3: that ever happened to Pete Hegseth or our FK Junior, Lisa,

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Speaker 3: considering the fact that heg Seth reportedly paid to settle

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Speaker 3: a sexual assault case. Lisa, you worked for a Republican

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Speaker 3: speaker in Denny Haster. You know how this stuff works.

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Speaker 3: When Mike Johnson says, I don't want the ethics report released,

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Speaker 3: what does that mean? When the chairman says we're going

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Speaker 3: to do it anyway.

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Speaker 1: Well, Joe, there used to be a joke in Washington.

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Speaker 1: I don't know that it's still the case. But if

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Speaker 1: you want a story told, tell somebody on Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 1: And it certainly is the case. I mean, these kinds

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Speaker 1: of things definitely have a way of making themselves into

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Speaker 1: the conversation. But you know, and I'm reflecting on what

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Speaker 1: Genie said, I'm reflecting on sort of the way we've

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Speaker 1: covered Donald Trump for all these years. The truth is

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Speaker 1: that I think we're falling in the same We're falling

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Speaker 1: into the same trap, and that is that, yes, there

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Speaker 1: is a process for confirmation. There is a process that

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Speaker 1: involves the FBI, involves background checks and all of those

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Speaker 1: other things, and ordinarily those are disqualifiers. But look, in

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Speaker 1: a resounding way, the American electorate voted for Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: and put him back in office in charge of the

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Speaker 1: biggest in the biggest job there ever was. So to me,

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Speaker 1: we also have to reflect on the fact that this

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Speaker 1: is sort of a continuation of a conversation we probably

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Speaker 1: need to be having, and that's what is it that's

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Speaker 1: qualifying and disqualifying in these jobs in this day and age.

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Speaker 1: Do I think that we should refer back to the

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Speaker 1: way that they can once we're absolutely and Jeanie and

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Speaker 1: I and you Joe have been watching this long enough

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Speaker 1: to know that that's the way that this business is done.

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Speaker 1: And thank goodness, there are processes in place that will

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Speaker 1: hopefully catch some of these candidates that perhaps aren't the

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Speaker 1: best qualified for these jobs. But also too, let's not

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Speaker 1: fall into the trap of following all of the side

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Speaker 1: noise and the outside noise that's conflating the fact that

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is still fighting for all of these candidates,

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Speaker 1: and so far his record has been pretty good over

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Speaker 1: the course of the last couple of months and years.

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Speaker 3: So I'm glad you said all of that, Lisa, finish

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Speaker 3: the thought, then, what are the chances that all three

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Speaker 3: heg Seth Gates, RFK Junior are confirmed? Because Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: says he's got the mandate to make that happen.

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Speaker 1: You've heard me say it too. I think the rules

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Speaker 1: are different. I think the playbook is different, and I

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Speaker 1: think that you know, if Donald Trump has his mindset

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Speaker 1: on getting these people into place, He's going to do

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Speaker 1: what he has in his power as the President of

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Speaker 1: the United States to do that. At the horror and

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Speaker 1: the shock of all the people inside of washing in DC,

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Speaker 1: including myself, who are concerned about these people as candidates

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Speaker 1: that should be in these roles, and so to me,

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Speaker 1: I think that the chance if there's I mean goodness knows,

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Speaker 1: my crystal ball is as clear as anybody's in this town. Joe,

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Speaker 1: But I'll say this that I think that it's very

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Speaker 1: possible that we could see these kinds of people get

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Speaker 1: into these roles more readily than ever before in the

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Speaker 1: history of the United States.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well, all right, Jennie.

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Speaker 3: What role do Democrats then play on the committees that

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Speaker 3: are having these hearings. Do Democrats throw their hands up

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Speaker 3: and say, you know what you want this team, go ahead,

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Speaker 3: let's see where you are in two years, clear them?

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Speaker 3: Or is there going to be a real throw down,

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Speaker 3: a real fight by Democrats knowing that they will likely

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Speaker 3: be confirmed anyway, Well, they.

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Speaker 6: Will continue to be the loyal opposition. I think you

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Speaker 6: look at the Judiciary Committee. Poor ninety one year old

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Speaker 6: Chuck Gresley is the incoming chair of that has got

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Speaker 6: to manage this, and you're going to see Dick Durbin

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Speaker 6: and the Democrats. They are going to call if Matt

436
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Speaker 6: Gates comes to a to the Judiciary Committee, they will

437
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:03,680
Speaker 6: call witnesses. They will make this a spectacle. They will

438
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:07,880
Speaker 6: make Republicans go on the record and say they support

439
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 6: somebody who is charged with sex with an underage woman

440
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 6: or girl, who has paid for sex, who has used

441
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,439
Speaker 6: illegal drugs, all of these allegations. So these are going

442
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 6: to be hearings of the kind you know, just think

443
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 6: back to Clarence Thomas Anita Hill. That's what they will do,

444
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 6: and that's what the Republicans are so so not looking

445
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:31,640
Speaker 6: forward to. That's one reason why some of them want

446
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 6: the report to come back, come out. They're hoping that

447
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,639
Speaker 6: they can avoid having to go through this hearing. But

448
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 6: these will be hearings for all of us to watch

449
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 6: and all of us to see. But again, what we

450
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 6: won't be talking about is what Donald Trump is saying

451
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,680
Speaker 6: he's going to be doing, including yesterday that he will

452
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 6: use the US military to deport people who are here illegally.

453
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 6: Regardless of what you think about immigration, the use of

454
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:59,159
Speaker 6: the military domestically, that is an enormous change in the

455
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,400
Speaker 6: way we run this country, he said on truth Social yesterday,

456
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 6: Absolutely true when somebody posted he would do that, and

457
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 6: that has sort of gone sort of under reported, under disgust,

458
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 6: under you know, like just imagined what would that would

459
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 6: be like, the US military out in full force because

460
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 6: of the you know, the real, real nasty allegations we're

461
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 6: hearing on the other side, and that has should be balanced.

462
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 6: We should try to balance both of them. But I'll

463
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 6: tell you, if these hearings come to fruition, there will

464
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:30,919
Speaker 6: be no balancing. We will all be all in on

465
00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 6: Matt Gates because it's going to be wild.

466
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 3: Oh I got yeah, just wait to cover these hearings.

467
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 3: This is a great panel and a really smart conversation.

468
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 3: I appreciate Lisa Camussa Miller and Genie Shanzano. Thank you

469
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,399
Speaker 3: so much both for the insights.

470
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:52,160
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ketch

471
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Evo, CarPlay and

472
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 2: then Froudoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

473
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:04,200
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcast a. Watch us live on YouTube.

474
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:06,879
Speaker 3: We'll have tabs on the markets for us throughout the

475
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 3: hour here as we cover politics from Washington, DC. We

476
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 3: saw a bit of a swoon in the market earlier

477
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,360
Speaker 3: with the news from Ukraine using the attack of missiles

478
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 3: provided by the US offensively against Russia, which is announcing

479
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 3: a new nuclear doctrine, though it does seem that the

480
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:25,199
Speaker 3: markets have settled a bit since then turning to the

481
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,920
Speaker 3: matter at hand in Washington. That's the transition, of course,

482
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:31,160
Speaker 3: in the looming confirmation battles for some of the more

483
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 3: controversial figures who Donald Trump has named, beginning with former

484
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 3: Congressman Matt Gates, tapped to run the Department of Justice

485
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 3: to be the next Attorney General. As Kaylee mentioned, Congressman

486
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 3: Sean Caston, a Democrat from Illinois, is leading a letter

487
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 3: from House Democrats urging the Ethics Committee to release its

488
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 3: report into Matt Gates. Knowing that the Ethics Committee will

489
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,679
Speaker 3: be voting on this matter tomorrow and that the Speaker

490
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 3: of the House, Mike Johnson, has called on the committee

491
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:04,479
Speaker 3: to keep that report under wraps. Congressman Caston joins US

492
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 3: now live from Capitol Hill. Congressman, it's good to see you.

493
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 3: This report seems to be the worst kept secret in Washington.

494
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 4: Do you know what's in there?

495
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 3: When it keep Matt Gates from being the next Attorney General.

496
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 7: So the report has not been released. The Ethics Committee,

497
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 7: by tradition, keeps a tight hold on these things. We've

498
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,159
Speaker 7: seen the leaks that have come out as you have.

499
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,439
Speaker 7: We've seen the stories about people saying that seventeen year

500
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,920
Speaker 7: old girls were drugged and statutorily raped at parties by

501
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:33,360
Speaker 7: Matt Gates. We've not seen what's in the report. The

502
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,679
Speaker 7: Ethics Committee has the authority to release that report, and

503
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 7: I think what scares a lot of us is that

504
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 7: we saw the last time that the Trump was in

505
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:43,719
Speaker 7: the White House that he not only surrounds himself with

506
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 7: sexual predators, people who are credibly accused of sexual assault,

507
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 7: but suppresses that information. Remember he suppressed the FBI investigation

508
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,679
Speaker 7: into Brett Kevinaugh. Remember that Donald Trump himself is an

509
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 7: adjudicated rapist. And so if we don't compel the release

510
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 7: of that information, we have no guarantee that a Republican

511
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 7: led Senate will actually care about whether an attorney general

512
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 7: in the United States has been accused of sexual assault.

513
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 7: So we need to get the information out there. We

514
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 7: need to make sure that the Senate has the tools

515
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,679
Speaker 7: to fulfill their advice and consent function, and then make

516
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 7: sure that we put public pressure on them to ensure

517
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 7: that they do.

518
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:20,160
Speaker 8: Well.

519
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 9: Of course, we should note that the former Congressman Matt

520
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:26,880
Speaker 9: Gates has denied any wrongdoing amid these allegations, and even

521
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 9: attorneys for two of the alleged people that had relations

522
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 9: with Matt Gates have said their interactions were consensual. But

523
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 9: Congressman as we consider this here knowing that the Speaker

524
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:41,400
Speaker 9: has said this would set a bad precedent. As mister

525
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,919
Speaker 9: Gates is no longer a member of the House of Representatives,

526
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 9: is there a precedent concern here? Could the House Ethics

527
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:51,400
Speaker 9: Committee in the future be used in a way that

528
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:53,880
Speaker 9: it was not intended to if this is done.

529
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 7: Look Number one, the House Ethics Committee does have a

530
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 7: history in past years. They have real reports after members

531
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 7: have come out. Number two, Make no mistake, Matt Gates

532
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 7: is an extremely smart guy. He is also less than

533
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 7: completely honest. All of us understood that he resigned early

534
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,199
Speaker 7: in order to avoid this report coming to light. If

535
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 7: he is nervous about what's in the report, that speaks volumes.

536
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,680
Speaker 7: And with respect to mister Johnson, I would simply point

537
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 7: out that mister Johnson told us when he was running

538
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 7: for Speaker. If you want to know what I believe,

539
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,439
Speaker 7: just read the Bible when Jesus said, what you do

540
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 7: unto the least of these, you do unto me. I

541
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,639
Speaker 7: wonder who Mike Johnson actually is thinking of by the

542
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:37,119
Speaker 7: least of these. If you have somebody Donald Trump raped

543
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 7: a woman, is Mike Johnson going to look out for

544
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 7: that or is he going to be a rubber stamp?

545
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 7: Does he care that there are credible challenges as against

546
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 7: Matt Gates. I wish this didn't sound partisan. I wish

547
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 7: that we trusted the Republicans in the House and Senate

548
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 7: to defend the least of these. But the fact that

549
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 7: somebody is saying I am innocent, trust me, and please

550
00:28:59,040 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 7: don't disclose the.

551
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 4: Little dubious congressman.

552
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 3: We heard from Elon Musk, who of course is playing

553
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 3: a pretty big role in the transition of this administration.

554
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 3: Apparently we'll play a large role once the administration is

555
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 3: often running. He says that Matt Gates, quote is the

556
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 3: judge dread America needs to clean up a corrupt system

557
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 3: and put powerful bad actors in prison. Gates, he says,

558
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 3: will be our hammer of justice. That's a direct quote,

559
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 3: going on to say that the allegations that we're talking

560
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 3: about here quote amount to less than nothing unquote. How

561
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 3: would you respond to Elon Musk?

562
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 7: Look, Elon Musk is not an elected official. Elon Musk

563
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 7: is does not represent anybody, and hardly I think is

564
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 7: a voice of reason in our society's I mean, he

565
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 7: said that his own goal is to go live on Mars. Okay, fine,

566
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 7: the only reason we're talking about Elon Musk is because

567
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 7: he's rich. We have a separate question. Do we want

568
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 7: the Attorney General of the United States to be somebody

569
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 7: who has a dedicated commitment to ensuring that the law

570
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 7: applies to every American equally without preference. That seems a

571
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 7: very low bar. If your view is that the Attorney

572
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 7: General's job is to be some comic book figure that

573
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 7: is out to implement retribution, whatever that is, that is

574
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 7: a deeply anti American idea.

575
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 9: Congressman, we may care about Elon Musk because he is

576
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 9: the richest man in the world, but he also happens

577
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 9: to be a massive government contractor, including agreements between his

578
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 9: company SpaceX and NASA. We're expected to see today and

579
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 9: the President elect is expected to attend the launch of

580
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 9: a heavy rocket, the sixth Starship launch, which of course

581
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 9: is integral to NASA's efforts to hopefully one day get

582
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 9: back to the Moon and then maybe to Mars. And

583
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 9: I wonder how concerned you are about Elon Musk's more

584
00:30:57,040 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 9: active role, it seems with this transition, with the President

585
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 9: elect knowing that the government was reliant on him for

586
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 9: many such endeavors.

587
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 7: You know, I think there's a larger conversation there that

588
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 7: is the concern about our campaign finance system in the

589
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 7: wake of the Citizens United decision. What our the government

590
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 7: that our founders intended the government that our laws were

591
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 7: designed prior to Citizens United, is you had to disclose

592
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 7: if you were spending money to elect political figures. There

593
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 7: isn't Amolliment's clause in the Constitution you cannot be independently profiting,

594
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 7: and we've hidden all that in the guts of our

595
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 7: campaign finance system. A functioning Congress going into the next term,

596
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 7: given all the circumstances you just described, were the richest

597
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 7: person in the world put hundreds of millions of dollars

598
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 7: to elect someone into government and is then running to

599
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 7: get those contracts. A Congress fulfilling its duty as a

600
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 7: check and balance, would have robust oversight, robust investigations, robust subpoenas,

601
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 7: and if in fact SpaceX is the best technology to

602
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 7: provide those needs and it's a fair and competitive bid process,

603
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:04,239
Speaker 7: there's nothing to worry about there. But I think we

604
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 7: are all concerned having seen what happened in the last

605
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 7: Congress that the leadership in the Republican Party is so

606
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 7: petrified of making Donald Trump angry and so unwilling to

607
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 7: stand up for those constitutional principles that we have to

608
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 7: ask this question of is their corruption happening in the

609
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 7: light of day that will be allowed to continue, which

610
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 7: ruins this beautiful American Republic that all of us benefit from.

611
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 7: This is bigger than just Elon muskett is the question of, like,

612
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 7: do we want to make sure that there is no

613
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 7: cash for favors in our politics? Congress has the ability

614
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 7: to oversight and protect against that.

615
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 4: I hope that we do well.

616
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 3: Congressman, knowing that Elon Musk will have the ear of

617
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 3: the president, do you find as silver lining potentially in

618
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 3: what he might steer Donald Trump to when it comes

619
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 3: to climate change, when it comes to the development of

620
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 3: electric vehicles, for instance, and is there an opportunity to

621
00:32:56,040 --> 00:33:00,719
Speaker 3: collaborate on nuclear when this new Congress and this new

622
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 3: administration begin.

623
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 7: We'll see, I, you know, speculating on an unappointed, unconfirmed

624
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,479
Speaker 7: person who's whispering in the ear of a political figure,

625
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 7: I'm not sure that's hugely productive. I don't think that

626
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 7: that Elon Musk's involvement in politics is because he wanted

627
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:23,719
Speaker 7: to convince Donald Trump to leve electric vehicles, right, So,

628
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 7: you know, I think that's a third order question. I

629
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 7: do think that a lot of us in the in

630
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 7: the energy community are broadly concerned that the last time

631
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 7: Trump was in the White House, he fought to raise

632
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 7: the price of oil. You will recall he called the

633
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 7: Saudi's and said, I need you to curtail production to

634
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 7: raise the price of oil because it's hurting our oil manufacturers's.

635
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 7: He's got voices in his head who are saying we

636
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 7: were losing market share in the United States. Coal consumption

637
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 7: United States is collapsing, Oil consumption is flat. They want

638
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 7: to export because they can't compete in the United States.

639
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 7: What we really need in the White House is someone

640
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 7: who is committed to competitive markets, to making sure that

641
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 7: the lowest cost technology wins. And what all of us

642
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 7: know is that if you have a solar panel on

643
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 7: your roof, you don't pay for electricity anymore. If you

644
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,799
Speaker 7: have a transmission wire that can connect your cheap electricity

645
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 7: to a higher, higher priced part of the grid, then

646
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:19,320
Speaker 7: markets work. And I think what we also know is

647
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 7: that the Trump administration is going to work very hard

648
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 7: to raise the price of energy to protect the oil

649
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 7: and gas sector that can't compete, and that's not only

650
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 7: bad for the climate, it's also.

651
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:30,840
Speaker 4: Bad for the economy.

652
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:35,399
Speaker 7: What influence Musk might have with electric vehicles, I think

653
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 7: is a third order impact beyond that larger question of

654
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:40,799
Speaker 7: the stress that our economy is going to feel under

655
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 7: your Trump administration.

656
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:46,879
Speaker 9: Well, Congressmen, before we can get there to the incoming administration,

657
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 9: there is this session of Congress to finish out in

658
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 9: this spending fight that needs to be fought. Obviously, we're

659
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 9: facing a deadline here of December twentieth. In what form

660
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 9: do you expect ultimately a shut down a version will

661
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 9: take And where does one hundred billion dollars in request

662
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 9: of disaster relief fit into the picture?

663
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:05,839
Speaker 4: Well, I think we all hurt.

664
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 7: Johnson say this week that he wanted to do a

665
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:13,240
Speaker 7: short term continuing resolution that would put the disaster package

666
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 7: in there. What we've all struggled with through this whole

667
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:18,839
Speaker 7: session is that there's a war within the Republican Party

668
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 7: between itself. I think it's Freedom Caucus would like to

669
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 7: oppose any spending package. The more sort of main street

670
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:26,840
Speaker 7: ends of the Republican Party would like to negotiate this

671
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 7: in good faith. If I had to guess right now,

672
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 7: I'd say that they punt until the next Congress through

673
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 7: a CR But we'll see. I think they're having a

674
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 7: lot of fights within themselves on how.

675
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 4: To get through there.

676
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 7: And you know, we've basically run this entire year on

677
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 7: a continuing resolution, arguably the last two years on a

678
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 7: continuing resolution as a result of the fact that the

679
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 7: Republican Party, particularly in the House, has struggled with governance,

680
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 7: and so we just keep limping along and kicking through

681
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 7: last year's priorities of the year before't priorities.

682
00:35:57,840 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 4: I expect that.

683
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 7: Will continue through this turn, but I would love to

684
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 7: be pleasantly surprised.

685
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 9: All right, Congressman, we appreciate your time. That it is

686
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 9: the Democrat from Illinois shancast In joining us live from

687
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:11,320
Speaker 9: Capitol Hill.

688
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

689
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 2: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

690
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 2: Rounoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

691
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

692
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

693
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 9: We Mark on this Tuesday, one thousand days of war

694
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 9: between Russia and Ukraine, and this deep into this conflict,

695
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:40,840
Speaker 9: things do seem to be escalating. After the US granted

696
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 9: Ukraine permission to use US made weapons for longer range

697
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 9: strikes into Russia, and Ukraine took advantage of that newly

698
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 9: granted privilege by striking a military base in Russian territory,

699
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:57,240
Speaker 9: leading Moscow to respond with threat regarding nuclear weapons, putin

700
00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 9: signing a decree allowing Russia to fire nuclear weapons in

701
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:05,920
Speaker 9: response to conventional attacks, including things like drone strikes. So

702
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 9: at a time in which this feels like it's getting

703
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 9: a whole lot hotter, we heard from the Ukrainian President

704
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:14,399
Speaker 9: Voladimir Zalynski about a path toward this being over.

705
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:19,239
Speaker 10: We must push Russia toward just every blow and every

706
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:23,800
Speaker 10: thread from Russia must be met with it for sanctions,

707
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 10: but Sultan days, it has been crucial to radically reduce

708
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 10: Russia's ability to fund its war through oil sales.

709
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:39,720
Speaker 3: Speaking to the European Parliament earlier today, quite the reaction

710
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:43,719
Speaker 3: from Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, reacting to the

711
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:47,919
Speaker 3: use of those attacks missiles that Kaylee just mentioned quote,

712
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 3: we will be taking this as a qualitatively new phase

713
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 3: of the Western war against Russia, and we will act

714
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 3: accordingly unquote. That's where we begin with Bloomberg's David Goura,

715
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:01,279
Speaker 3: who's still in Riotation Arrow where they are just now

716
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:05,800
Speaker 3: wrapping the G twenty summit, Joe Biden's last G twenty David,

717
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 3: this is the topic on the ground there today. What

718
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 3: are you hearing.

719
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:13,319
Speaker 11: President Biden making his way to the airport. He has

720
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 11: done with this summit, but those words from Sergei Lavrov

721
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 11: had a seismic effect on this summit while it was

722
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 11: wrapping up today. Everyone was listening. Indeed, it move markets

723
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:24,440
Speaker 11: when he spoke about the changes to the Russian nuclear doctrine,

724
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 11: in the fact that he saw the move as escalatory.

725
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 11: You know, it's interesting the White House didn't immediately confirm this.

726
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 11: I watched an interview yesterday that Jake Sullivan, the National

727
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 11: Security Advisor, did with the PBS News Hour. He wouldn't

728
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 11: confirm that the US was giving those missiles to Ukraine

729
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 11: and allowing them to use them explicitly. Of course, we

730
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 11: did see that overnight. We had confirmation from Russia, but

731
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 11: not from Ukraine, and I should say. Vandrier Zelenski wanted

732
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 11: to be here for this event, wanted to make his

733
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 11: case for continued multilateral support of his effort to fight

734
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 11: off Russia in his home country, and that request for

735
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 11: infredation was rebuffed by President Lula here of Brazil. But

736
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:58,360
Speaker 11: this has come up over and over again on meetings

737
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:00,839
Speaker 11: on the sidelines and really shaped the last day of

738
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 11: this session. There was a pivotal bilateral meeting this morning

739
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:06,800
Speaker 11: between President She of China and Olaf Schultz, the Chancellor

740
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 11: of Germany. As we've been talking about, Chancellor Olaf Schultz

741
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:13,640
Speaker 11: had a conversation with Vladimir Putin a few days ago,

742
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 11: and he was briefing world leaders, including President She about this.

743
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 4: But there is this variable here.

744
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 11: That looms large, guys, sort of what President Biden is

745
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 11: able to do in terms of setting policy allowing for

746
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 11: the use of these ammunitions and weapons, and what's going

747
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 11: to happen in just a couple of months time when

748
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:31,279
Speaker 11: he leaves the White House and President Trump comes back.

749
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:36,840
Speaker 9: All right, Bloomberg correspondent David Geras still live in Riodasian

750
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,239
Speaker 9: era for us, Thank you so much. Now, as we

751
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 9: consider the words of Sergei Lavrov today. He also said

752
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:45,239
Speaker 9: that we are strongly in favor of doing everything not

753
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 9: to allow nuclear.

754
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 4: War to happen.

755
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:51,760
Speaker 9: At the same time that this nuclear oriented a decree

756
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 9: was signed by the Russian President. So I wonder to

757
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 9: what extent we take those words at face value.

758
00:39:57,200 --> 00:39:58,839
Speaker 3: I don't know how you square those two. There are

759
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:01,760
Speaker 3: questions about whether this blo US might be an attempt

760
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 3: to take advantage of this lame duck session that we're

761
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,759
Speaker 3: in right now in advance of Donald Trump taking office,

762
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 3: But this is something that we can only wonder right now.

763
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:13,760
Speaker 3: Remarkable though, to think that President Zelenski waited only hours

764
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 3: after Joe Biden gave him permission to use those missiles.

765
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:19,879
Speaker 9: Yeah, pretty incredibly quick in terms of action here, though.

766
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 9: They had been waiting for this kind of move from

767
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 9: the US administration for this permission to be granted for

768
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 9: some time. So we wanted to get into all of

769
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 9: this with Kelly Grico. She is a senior fellow at

770
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 9: the Stimson Center and expert in the weapons of war.

771
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:34,799
Speaker 9: Kelly would love to hear from you on just what

772
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:38,600
Speaker 9: you make of the escalatory nature it seems we've seen

773
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 9: from both sides in just the last twenty four hours.

774
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 9: How does Ukraine respond to the threat of Russia saying

775
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:48,400
Speaker 9: if you strike us again, we could use a nuclear weapon.

776
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:50,399
Speaker 9: Does that mean this might be the first and only

777
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 9: time the Ukraine used these attackers in this way.

778
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 12: Yes, well, thank you for having me. I will say

779
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 12: that I'm not surprised by the Russian response. They had

780
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 12: sign earlier that this could actually be the response. Over

781
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 12: the summer, they had discussed that they were revising their

782
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:09,920
Speaker 12: nuclear doctrine to lower the nuclear threshold for conventional attacks,

783
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 12: and so what we saw today was essentially a confirmation

784
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:15,760
Speaker 12: of that, signing the order that it is now official policy.

785
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 12: I think, you know, it's interesting here we're playing a

786
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 12: very dangerous game of chicken on both sides, essentially to

787
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:24,640
Speaker 12: see which side's going to blink first and stand down.

788
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 12: Whether you know, my intendency is to think that the

789
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 12: Ukrainians will be likely to try to call Putin's bluff.

790
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 12: I think the question will be whether the Biden administration

791
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 12: and also European allies are prepared to call his bluff

792
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 12: in this way, or we'll see it as perhaps this

793
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:41,880
Speaker 12: is a step too far and it's worth backing down.

794
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 3: Well, I'm struck by the response, which was a non

795
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:50,000
Speaker 3: response by the US. It's like Joshua and wargames. The

796
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 3: only way to win is not to play. Kelly was

797
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 3: at the right angle for the US government today.

798
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 12: Yes, I think it was because it does allow for

799
00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:01,359
Speaker 12: especially if we side to back down and that maybe

800
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 12: this is going to be a one off. I think

801
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:04,359
Speaker 12: it allows us to do it in a way that

802
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 12: it creates some ambiguity, so we don't have as much

803
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:09,640
Speaker 12: of a reputational cost if we decide to revise this policy.

804
00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:13,319
Speaker 12: So if we've never confirmed that we authorize this, that

805
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:16,400
Speaker 12: these were actually you know, the attackers that we're used,

806
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 12: and it doesn't happen again, it's sort of an easier way,

807
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 12: I think, to manage a reversal of the policy without

808
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 12: sort of you know, taking a reputational hit. So I

809
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:28,360
Speaker 12: think that was very smart.

810
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 9: Well, and when we consider the US's decision making here

811
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:36,480
Speaker 9: to allow Ukraine to use these weapons at longer range

812
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 9: and strike Russian territory, that's not necessarily being granted by

813
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:42,840
Speaker 9: all allies of Ukraine alike Kelly, Germany for example, and

814
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:45,840
Speaker 9: the Chancellor ll Off Sholtz still incredibly reluctant to allow

815
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:49,799
Speaker 9: Ukraine use of their Torus long range missile systems. There's

816
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 9: been a lot of talk about that in the last

817
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 9: few days. What would providing those weapons to Ukraine mean

818
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 9: differently or is this kind of exactly the same scenario

819
00:42:57,719 --> 00:42:59,600
Speaker 9: wise is the US decision on attacks?

820
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 12: You know, it's exactly the same, and you know the

821
00:43:02,560 --> 00:43:04,720
Speaker 12: Germans have been much more cautious than what they provided.

822
00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 12: But I think it's worth noting that even our French

823
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 12: and British allies that have been i would say more

824
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 12: forward leaning and providing longer range systems to the Ukrainians

825
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 12: have still not provided permission to use those weapons on

826
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 12: Russian territory. And I think Putin's nuclear threats will certainly

827
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 12: probably cause them to pause that and rather than follow

828
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:27,320
Speaker 12: suit with the United States in that regard. But I

829
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 12: think the really important thing here to mention is that

830
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:32,520
Speaker 12: none of these long range systems, because they're only available

831
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 12: in very small numbers, are likely to actually transform Ukraine's

832
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 12: You know what Ukraine accomplish in the war right now,

833
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:44,160
Speaker 12: It's in a very tough position, largely because it lacks

834
00:43:44,320 --> 00:43:47,840
Speaker 12: sufficient manpower to hold the front, and it's being gradually

835
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 12: pushed back by the Russians, and these long range strikes

836
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:52,880
Speaker 12: are not going to change that reality. And so you know,

837
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:55,960
Speaker 12: you do have to wonder is it worth the escalation

838
00:43:56,160 --> 00:43:59,319
Speaker 12: risks here given what it can actually accomplish militarily.

839
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:02,880
Speaker 3: Well, I guess i'd ask you that what kind of

840
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 3: damage could President Zelenski do? What kind of ground could

841
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 3: Ukraine gain with the use of these weapons in time

842
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 3: to strengthen its hand at the negotiating table, realizing that's

843
00:44:14,239 --> 00:44:16,720
Speaker 3: a pretty short window it looks like for when Donald

844
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 3: Trump comes into office.

845
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:21,320
Speaker 12: Yeah, I actually don't think this is about Ukraine gaining

846
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 12: more ground. I think it's actually an attempt to try

847
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:27,000
Speaker 12: to save ground that Ukraine has, and particularly the Curse

848
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:30,319
Speaker 12: region where Ukraine went in in August and captured this

849
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 12: Russian territory and this surprise operation and the Russians are

850
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:37,040
Speaker 12: gearing up to it seems take back that territory. There's

851
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:41,480
Speaker 12: about fifty thousand troops in the Curs area, including North Koreans,

852
00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 12: and so I think part of the decision here was

853
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 12: to try to allow the Ukrainians to be able to

854
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:49,880
Speaker 12: conduct these long range strikes in the Curs area only

855
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:55,279
Speaker 12: so that they could hit supply depots, ammunition storage, any

856
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 12: concentrations of troops to try to disrupt those Russian operations,

857
00:44:58,960 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 12: and hopefully if Ukraine and can hold on to that

858
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:04,439
Speaker 12: Cursk territory, they could use it as a bargaining chip

859
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:05,800
Speaker 12: at the negotiating table.

860
00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:10,800
Speaker 9: Kelly, I want to ask you about another development today,

861
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:14,719
Speaker 9: the IAEA saying that Iran has agreed to stop producing

862
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:19,040
Speaker 9: uranium enriched to the level at which it's required for

863
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:23,359
Speaker 9: nuclear weapons, that's sixty percent production level. They say they've

864
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:27,759
Speaker 9: implemented measures aimed at stopping the increase of iron stockpile.

865
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 9: But I wonder just the status of the stockpile as

866
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:32,920
Speaker 9: it is, even if they're taking these steps, Kelly, how

867
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 9: much does iron already have at its disposal if it

868
00:45:35,239 --> 00:45:37,360
Speaker 9: wants to move forward with weapons.

869
00:45:38,040 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 12: Yes, I mean most estimates that I've heard from you know,

870
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:45,800
Speaker 12: nuclear experts that blotch Ran closely, is that they're very close,

871
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 12: probably you know, months away, if they wanted to from

872
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:52,160
Speaker 12: being able to have sufficient amounts and be able to

873
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:55,560
Speaker 12: create a nuclear weapon. I think what it's a really

874
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:59,240
Speaker 12: interesting signal that they're sending kind of extending in olive

875
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:02,840
Speaker 12: branch in some ways. And you know, it's interesting this

876
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 12: hap comes after the reporting we heard about Mosque meeting

877
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:10,359
Speaker 12: with the Iranians. So it's an important signal and I'd

878
00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 12: be curious to see how the Trump future Trump administration reacts.

879
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:18,719
Speaker 3: Well, considering the potential impact of the future Trump administration

880
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 3: and seeing the ceasefire struck in Lebanon that was framed

881
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:25,719
Speaker 3: as some sort of a gift for the incoming president.

882
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 3: Do you see all of the hot wars Ukraine? You

883
00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:31,720
Speaker 3: can add what's happening in Israel to the list here

884
00:46:32,040 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 3: potentially resolving or at least advancing to the next phase

885
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 3: under a new White House.

886
00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:40,279
Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean it is really something to watch, isn't

887
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 12: it that we've been We've had these wars, certainly for

888
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:45,760
Speaker 12: the last year to very active wars, one in Europe,

889
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:47,640
Speaker 12: one in the Middle East. The Ukraine war course has

890
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 12: gone on longer, and right as it's whinding you know,

891
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 12: Biden's administration is winding down, a lot of these parties

892
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:57,120
Speaker 12: are now thinking that they're better off negotiating knowing that

893
00:46:57,200 --> 00:47:00,080
Speaker 12: the Trump administration is coming. And so I think, what

894
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:01,719
Speaker 12: are something here that we should be thinking about as

895
00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:06,320
Speaker 12: the United States, about whether we have actually inadvertently perhaps

896
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 12: enabled these wars to drag on because we haven't really

897
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:13,319
Speaker 12: provided any restraints or not very many restraints on our

898
00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:16,239
Speaker 12: allies in these wars, and whether that really served our

899
00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 12: interests and served you know, either Israeli or Ukrainian interests.

900
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 12: And so it is quite remarkable that we might actually

901
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:26,400
Speaker 12: see at least some kind of freezing of these conflicts

902
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:29,360
Speaker 12: pretty soon into a Trump administration.

903
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:33,080
Speaker 3: Some big questions to answer, Kelly. It's great to have

904
00:47:33,160 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 3: you back. Kelly Grico, Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center.

905
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:39,120
Speaker 3: Thank you so much for the insights and analysis as

906
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:43,000
Speaker 3: we track what's happening in Ukraine on this thousandth day

907
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:46,400
Speaker 3: of its war with Russia. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee

908
00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:49,120
Speaker 3: Lines in Washington. Thanks for being with us on Balance

909
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 3: of Power as we transition to the economy next, an

910
00:47:51,640 --> 00:47:55,200
Speaker 3: important conversation with Joe Lavorgnia live from New York here

911
00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:59,320
Speaker 3: on Bloomberg TV and radio.

912
00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:03,799
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

913
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:06,920
Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then

914
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:10,000
Speaker 2: roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

915
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:14,920
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

916
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 9: I'm just realizing this sast Tuesday. That means we're officially

917
00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:23,640
Speaker 9: now two weeks since election day. Two weeks that for

918
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:26,680
Speaker 9: Joe Matthew myself felt more like two months.

919
00:48:26,680 --> 00:48:29,799
Speaker 3: Possibly they know two years that goes for a nation.

920
00:48:30,400 --> 00:48:32,840
Speaker 9: Yeah, because a lot has happened since we learned that

921
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:35,160
Speaker 9: Donald Trump would become the president elect, as he has

922
00:48:35,160 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 9: wasted no time filling out what his second administration will

923
00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:42,120
Speaker 9: look like. But he is spending time on one role

924
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 9: in particular, maybe more time than he first intended on

925
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:49,799
Speaker 9: Treasury Secretary, after a lot of infighting has played out

926
00:48:50,080 --> 00:48:50,840
Speaker 9: quite publicly.

927
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:55,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, this has been quite remarkable to witness. We're still

928
00:48:55,239 --> 00:48:58,480
Speaker 3: not done. We don't know who will be the Treasury secretary,

929
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 3: but we do know who will not, and that's because

930
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:03,280
Speaker 3: Howard Lutnik, who was said to be on the short

931
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:06,200
Speaker 3: list of course, co chair of the transition, has been

932
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:10,279
Speaker 3: named Commerce Secretary. That's the most recent one that we

933
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:13,880
Speaker 3: got here, according to reports. And Nancy Cook has been

934
00:49:13,960 --> 00:49:16,360
Speaker 3: driving a lot of our coverage here on the transition

935
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:18,880
Speaker 3: for US from Bloomberg here in Washington, our senior national

936
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:21,640
Speaker 3: correspondent for politics with us at the table. Nancy gets

937
00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:23,359
Speaker 3: great to see you. We've got to be getting close

938
00:49:23,400 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 3: to the big one here, right for Bloomberg at least

939
00:49:25,160 --> 00:49:28,360
Speaker 3: it's the big one. Usually you see Treasury come first

940
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:32,000
Speaker 3: because that's the less controversial pick. Why is it so

941
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:32,760
Speaker 3: hard this time?

942
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:35,919
Speaker 13: There has just been a tremendous amount of infighting over

943
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:37,719
Speaker 13: the Treasury pick that.

944
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:38,640
Speaker 4: Is really delayed.

945
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 13: And so a week or so ago, Scott Besson, who

946
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:44,000
Speaker 13: I know you have had on the show before, was

947
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:47,719
Speaker 13: relea seen as the front runner than Howard Lutnik decided,

948
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:50,600
Speaker 13: you know, he is running the personnel side of the transition.

949
00:49:50,680 --> 00:49:54,160
Speaker 13: He decided he wanted the job for himself and told

950
00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 13: President Elect Trump that. And basically there's been sort of

951
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:01,720
Speaker 13: a lot of infighting within the transition team over who's

952
00:50:01,760 --> 00:50:04,319
Speaker 13: going to get that post. Trump has grown tired of

953
00:50:04,360 --> 00:50:06,640
Speaker 13: the leaks, tired of sort of the back and forth

954
00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:09,400
Speaker 13: on this, and is now considering a whole new roster

955
00:50:09,520 --> 00:50:12,040
Speaker 13: of new candidates who have not been involved in the infighting.

956
00:50:12,600 --> 00:50:15,399
Speaker 13: So our reporting shows that he is supposed to meet

957
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:18,120
Speaker 13: with Kevin Walsh, who was a Fed governor, tomorrow. He's

958
00:50:18,160 --> 00:50:22,240
Speaker 13: also supposed to meet with Mark Rowen of Apollo. Senator

959
00:50:22,600 --> 00:50:25,040
Speaker 13: Bill Haggerty, who has been another guest of the show

960
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:27,800
Speaker 13: as in the mix and so really he's the pool

961
00:50:27,960 --> 00:50:31,640
Speaker 13: has expanded as the infighting sort of dragged on for

962
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:32,080
Speaker 13: the week.

963
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:35,160
Speaker 9: Well, and it did make me wonder when Bloomberg has

964
00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 9: reported this as well, though Donald Trump of course hasn't

965
00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:39,400
Speaker 9: yet made it official that it could be Howard Lutnik

966
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:43,239
Speaker 9: for Commerce. If there's been so much jocking between the two,

967
00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 9: if they're both to serve in the administration together working

968
00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:50,960
Speaker 9: toward economic goals, that that might create some strife internally

969
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 9: if they actually have to work together in that capacity,

970
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:55,880
Speaker 9: And I wonder if that actually means that if Lutnik

971
00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:58,680
Speaker 9: gets a formal cabinet role, that Bessett can't get one.

972
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:02,960
Speaker 13: Well, we reported yesterday that they had offered Scott bessen

973
00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:05,240
Speaker 13: they'd spoken to him about the both the Treasury position,

974
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:07,880
Speaker 13: but also there was talks about putting him in the

975
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:11,879
Speaker 13: White House at the National Economic Council, and so you know,

976
00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:14,439
Speaker 13: they have floated different jobs for him. I think it's

977
00:51:14,520 --> 00:51:16,920
Speaker 13: unlikely that the two of them both end up in

978
00:51:16,960 --> 00:51:20,919
Speaker 13: the administration at this point, but again, the Trump team

979
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:23,560
Speaker 13: has not officially announced Latin it yet, and so I

980
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:25,959
Speaker 13: think that, you know, we won't be totally sure until

981
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:29,120
Speaker 13: we see that come that announcement come from them directly.

982
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:34,239
Speaker 3: National Economic Council or Council of Economic Advisors, the two agencies,

983
00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:36,000
Speaker 3: if you will, or the two groups inside the White

984
00:51:36,000 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 3: House advising the President's been suggested, might actually have more influence,

985
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 3: play a greater role in the administration because they're in

986
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:45,319
Speaker 3: the White House with Donald Trump, which is exactly how

987
00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:46,680
Speaker 3: he operates. Does that make.

988
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:49,799
Speaker 13: Sense, Yeah, I mean, well, Treasury secretary is its own

989
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 13: cabinet position. You know, you have a plane, you have

990
00:51:52,200 --> 00:51:54,279
Speaker 13: a staff. You know, you're seeing a sort of more

991
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:57,239
Speaker 13: of a principle and a peer, I would say to

992
00:51:57,280 --> 00:52:00,000
Speaker 13: the president. But the National Economic Council, you have to remember,

993
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 13: in Trump's first term was led by Larry Kudlow, who

994
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:05,960
Speaker 13: was one of Trump's favorite people. You know, he was

995
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:07,960
Speaker 13: in the running for Treasury Secretary as well, but sort

996
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:10,600
Speaker 13: of took himself out of it because he's a Fox

997
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:12,840
Speaker 13: News commentator and I think didn't want to disrupt his

998
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:15,880
Speaker 13: life to that example, But that role when Larry Kudlow

999
00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:18,799
Speaker 13: occupied it, and even Gary Cohen before that, you know,

1000
00:52:19,000 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 13: was a real powerhouse. Because your office is in the

1001
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:24,960
Speaker 13: White House, you're sort of in all those meetings. My

1002
00:52:25,120 --> 00:52:28,799
Speaker 13: question really for the economic policy making this Trump term

1003
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:33,239
Speaker 13: is that it was so riddled with infighting last time,

1004
00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:36,200
Speaker 13: particularly in the trade space, over what to do of tariffs,

1005
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 13: what to do on the policy towards China. You had

1006
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:41,319
Speaker 13: some people who wanted, you know, tons of tariffs, some

1007
00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:43,960
Speaker 13: people who wanted more free trade. So I will be

1008
00:52:44,040 --> 00:52:47,440
Speaker 13: looking once Trump announced his economic team sort of where

1009
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:50,960
Speaker 13: the fissiers are, particularly on how these different players are

1010
00:52:50,960 --> 00:52:52,279
Speaker 13: going to view trade well.

1011
00:52:52,280 --> 00:52:55,319
Speaker 9: And that makes the role of USTR very important. Right

1012
00:52:55,920 --> 00:52:58,280
Speaker 9: one of these who it doesn't get the Treasury position

1013
00:52:58,440 --> 00:53:00,480
Speaker 9: potentially get that one instead.

1014
00:53:01,000 --> 00:53:03,120
Speaker 13: Us TR is really an open question, and I think

1015
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:06,880
Speaker 13: where Robert Leithheiser ends up as an open question. You know,

1016
00:53:06,960 --> 00:53:09,520
Speaker 13: our reporting shows that he does not want to go

1017
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:12,840
Speaker 13: to USTR again, even though that's a role that you

1018
00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:15,120
Speaker 13: know he did quite well and effectively in the first

1019
00:53:15,120 --> 00:53:17,719
Speaker 13: Trump term. And so I don't think he's going to

1020
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:21,399
Speaker 13: get Treasury secretary. He doesn't want USTR again, Where does

1021
00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:24,040
Speaker 13: he land because he has been such a Trump ally.

1022
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:26,880
Speaker 13: Same thing with Linda McMahon, she is the other coachair

1023
00:53:26,880 --> 00:53:30,480
Speaker 13: of the transition. We know Trump has interviewed her for commerce.

1024
00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 13: If Lutnick actually ends up getting the official nod for commerce,

1025
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:36,520
Speaker 13: where does Linda McMahon go. So there's a lot of

1026
00:53:36,600 --> 00:53:39,000
Speaker 13: real loyalists in the Trump or, but who may end

1027
00:53:39,080 --> 00:53:39,920
Speaker 13: up without jobs?

1028
00:53:40,520 --> 00:53:42,960
Speaker 9: Fascinating, Well, we know Nancy Cook will be covering all

1029
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:44,640
Speaker 9: of it for us as the piece is move about

1030
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:48,719
Speaker 9: the board here Bloomberg National Politics reporter Nancy Cook, and

1031
00:53:48,760 --> 00:53:52,120
Speaker 9: we want to talk more about this kind of economic

1032
00:53:52,160 --> 00:53:54,399
Speaker 9: team and frankly, what kind of policy it is they're

1033
00:53:54,440 --> 00:53:56,840
Speaker 9: really going to be pursuing once they are assembled and

1034
00:53:56,880 --> 00:53:59,239
Speaker 9: turned back to Joe Lavornia, He of course served in

1035
00:53:59,239 --> 00:54:01,319
Speaker 9: the first Trump why House, a Special Assistant to the

1036
00:54:01,320 --> 00:54:04,360
Speaker 9: President and chief Economist at the National Economic Council, and

1037
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 9: is now chief economist with SMB Nico Securities. He's joining

1038
00:54:08,320 --> 00:54:11,000
Speaker 9: us from New York. Joe would love to just get

1039
00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:13,000
Speaker 9: your take on how you're watching all of this play out.

1040
00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:15,040
Speaker 9: As Frankly, some of the names that Nancy just told

1041
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:17,640
Speaker 9: us seemed to be in contention here, like Kevin worsh

1042
00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:20,759
Speaker 9: might actually have some conflict with Donald Trump when it

1043
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:24,719
Speaker 9: comes to the approach around policies like tariffs, for example,

1044
00:54:25,080 --> 00:54:25,720
Speaker 9: What do you think?

1045
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:28,600
Speaker 14: So I thought Nancy did a very good job reporting,

1046
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 14: But to me, I don't see it as infighting at all.

1047
00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:32,840
Speaker 8: I actually think it's healthy debate.

1048
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:37,360
Speaker 14: And the press, I think, sometimes treats anything that mister

1049
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:40,879
Speaker 14: Trump or President Electrump says as catnip, and I think

1050
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:42,920
Speaker 14: you've got a lot of healthy debates, and so I

1051
00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:46,719
Speaker 14: think the infighting thing is very much overhyped. I could

1052
00:54:46,719 --> 00:54:49,080
Speaker 14: tell you that when I was there, and this was

1053
00:54:49,120 --> 00:54:51,399
Speaker 14: during the pandemic, there wasn't chaos, and that.

1054
00:54:51,480 --> 00:54:53,160
Speaker 8: Was typically the adjective people use.

1055
00:54:53,239 --> 00:54:54,840
Speaker 14: So I think we have to be a little bit

1056
00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:57,080
Speaker 14: more careful in terms of I think how we describe things,

1057
00:54:57,440 --> 00:54:59,240
Speaker 14: but in terms of the people, I mean, the president

1058
00:54:59,280 --> 00:55:02,640
Speaker 14: certainly has a great list of people who could take

1059
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:05,040
Speaker 14: the role. I think what you're referring to as it

1060
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:07,759
Speaker 14: relates to Kevin Worsh as a paper position he had

1061
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:12,279
Speaker 14: back in twenty eleven, the world has totally changed since then.

1062
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:17,200
Speaker 14: So whether it's Kevin Worsh or Scott Bessen and complimentary roles,

1063
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:19,279
Speaker 14: I think the nation would be well served. But I

1064
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:22,200
Speaker 14: think the point is that the President elect is making

1065
00:55:22,239 --> 00:55:25,560
Speaker 14: a very thorough, thoughtful decision on who we want, and

1066
00:55:25,600 --> 00:55:27,719
Speaker 14: we have to applaud the fact that he's moving with

1067
00:55:27,880 --> 00:55:29,759
Speaker 14: patients and thinking about it.

1068
00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:34,759
Speaker 3: Joe, thank you for that, considering all the motion here

1069
00:55:34,880 --> 00:55:37,279
Speaker 3: and the commotion and the reporting that you may or

1070
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:40,000
Speaker 3: may not think is totally accurate, at least describing the

1071
00:55:40,000 --> 00:55:42,520
Speaker 3: mood at mar A Lago. You've been there. You know

1072
00:55:42,560 --> 00:55:46,280
Speaker 3: what this is like. You were chief economist, National Economic Council.

1073
00:55:46,760 --> 00:55:50,200
Speaker 3: Are you loving sitting back here watching what's going on

1074
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:53,560
Speaker 3: from your perch or are you actually in conversation with

1075
00:55:53,680 --> 00:55:56,080
Speaker 3: the transition team about taking on another role of this

1076
00:55:56,160 --> 00:55:56,719
Speaker 3: new White House.

1077
00:55:56,760 --> 00:55:56,840
Speaker 13: Now.

1078
00:55:57,280 --> 00:55:59,720
Speaker 14: I'm lucky that I get to be an outside observer

1079
00:56:00,040 --> 00:56:03,359
Speaker 14: and have some insight into Washington, and most importantly, the

1080
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:07,279
Speaker 14: markets are moving and it's making my day job more

1081
00:56:07,280 --> 00:56:08,040
Speaker 14: fun and interesting.

1082
00:56:08,080 --> 00:56:11,680
Speaker 8: It's great already, but we're making it great again. Poor

1083
00:56:11,719 --> 00:56:12,759
Speaker 8: pun but you know what I mean.

1084
00:56:12,760 --> 00:56:15,600
Speaker 14: But no, it's it's pretty interesting in terms of what happens.

1085
00:56:15,600 --> 00:56:17,400
Speaker 14: And I do think you know the people that the

1086
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:21,440
Speaker 14: President is considering for Treasury, I think what's important is

1087
00:56:21,440 --> 00:56:24,320
Speaker 14: they're not folks that I think would be market negative

1088
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:26,279
Speaker 14: by any means, and the President needs to put someone

1089
00:56:26,320 --> 00:56:30,799
Speaker 14: there who can articulate as policies, be a spokesperson for

1090
00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:33,880
Speaker 14: the markets, and do it in a way that inspires confidence.

1091
00:56:33,920 --> 00:56:35,880
Speaker 14: And I think what you're seeing now with the equities

1092
00:56:36,280 --> 00:56:38,880
Speaker 14: close to their all time highs and the market and

1093
00:56:39,360 --> 00:56:41,960
Speaker 14: treasury market, you know, basically not selling off further, I

1094
00:56:41,960 --> 00:56:44,440
Speaker 14: think right now is a vote of confidence that over

1095
00:56:44,480 --> 00:56:47,600
Speaker 14: the president picks will be someone that investors are largely

1096
00:56:47,640 --> 00:56:48,279
Speaker 14: comfortable with.

1097
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:52,480
Speaker 9: Well as we consider the markets here and the public

1098
00:56:52,840 --> 00:56:56,600
Speaker 9: companies that trade on them, Joe, we did get some

1099
00:56:56,760 --> 00:57:00,560
Speaker 9: news from the CFO of Walmart, who told CNBC today

1100
00:57:00,880 --> 00:57:04,640
Speaker 9: that if Donald Trump implements the tariffs as expected, Walmart

1101
00:57:04,680 --> 00:57:07,040
Speaker 9: will likely have to raise some prices. I know we've

1102
00:57:07,080 --> 00:57:10,400
Speaker 9: discussed this with you at length, but this points to

1103
00:57:10,440 --> 00:57:14,960
Speaker 9: the inflationary concerns many have, Joe, and I wonder how

1104
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:17,120
Speaker 9: many price increases you would expect to see.

1105
00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:19,880
Speaker 14: So I think what's very important is, again, as I

1106
00:57:19,880 --> 00:57:23,800
Speaker 14: said this, like, maybe there's five pillars of trumpnomics. One

1107
00:57:23,800 --> 00:57:25,800
Speaker 14: of them certainly is the tariffs, but also part of

1108
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:29,600
Speaker 14: that is lower energy costs, and the energy share of

1109
00:57:29,600 --> 00:57:32,880
Speaker 14: the economy is larger than the imported goods share of

1110
00:57:32,880 --> 00:57:36,320
Speaker 14: the economy, and energy prices are down, has a more

1111
00:57:36,400 --> 00:57:39,800
Speaker 14: multiplicative effect, and that impacts other goods and prices, and

1112
00:57:39,880 --> 00:57:44,280
Speaker 14: lower costs actually can reduce the inflation rate. A tariff

1113
00:57:44,320 --> 00:57:47,760
Speaker 14: theoretically would be a one off increase in the price level,

1114
00:57:47,800 --> 00:57:52,040
Speaker 14: so it's not inflationary. Moreover, what we saw from basically

1115
00:57:52,080 --> 00:57:56,640
Speaker 14: the twenty seventeen to twenty twenty period is that producers largely,

1116
00:57:57,080 --> 00:58:01,160
Speaker 14: if not fully, absorbed that pricing. So to sound a

1117
00:58:01,160 --> 00:58:03,520
Speaker 14: bit like an economist, that depends on implementation.

1118
00:58:04,000 --> 00:58:05,120
Speaker 8: But I think people who.

1119
00:58:05,040 --> 00:58:08,120
Speaker 14: Are fixated on the tariffs as being inflationary and hurting,

1120
00:58:08,400 --> 00:58:11,520
Speaker 14: I think are missing the bigger picture and what President

1121
00:58:11,560 --> 00:58:14,600
Speaker 14: elect is trying to do, because it also involves a deregulation,

1122
00:58:14,720 --> 00:58:18,360
Speaker 14: which is growth enhancing, lower tax rates on the corporate sector,

1123
00:58:18,760 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 14: and the intention is to increase productive capacity and supply,

1124
00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:26,160
Speaker 14: which lifts productivity and actually with lower inflation. So I

1125
00:58:26,200 --> 00:58:28,800
Speaker 14: don't like when people just fixate on one little narrow

1126
00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 14: piece and don't look at the possible effects, the second

1127
00:58:32,080 --> 00:58:34,680
Speaker 14: and third order effects that tariffs may have that actually

1128
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:38,080
Speaker 14: are not destabilizing or inflationary really in any appreciable way.

1129
00:58:39,200 --> 00:58:42,480
Speaker 3: I'd like to ask you about Donald Trump's pick for

1130
00:58:42,640 --> 00:58:45,840
Speaker 3: energy Secretary Chris Wright said to be an innovator when

1131
00:58:45,840 --> 00:58:49,240
Speaker 3: it comes to fracking. This is drill, baby, drill, right,

1132
00:58:49,280 --> 00:58:53,440
Speaker 3: assuming he's confirmed, Joe, what will it mean for oil

1133
00:58:53,520 --> 00:58:57,120
Speaker 3: prices in say, the first year of Donald Trump's administration,

1134
00:58:57,240 --> 00:59:00,320
Speaker 3: because the President elect has made some big promises lower

1135
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:01,880
Speaker 3: energy prices by half.

1136
00:59:02,320 --> 00:59:04,120
Speaker 14: Yeah, I mean, the thing is we're going to get

1137
00:59:04,120 --> 00:59:06,640
Speaker 14: lower energy costs at I don't know where prices go.

1138
00:59:06,720 --> 00:59:08,840
Speaker 14: A lot will depend in part on the global economy

1139
00:59:08,840 --> 00:59:12,360
Speaker 14: and what the President decides to do with Iran in sanctions,

1140
00:59:12,520 --> 00:59:14,440
Speaker 14: so it's not just a US phenomenon.

1141
00:59:14,800 --> 00:59:17,000
Speaker 8: But I do think there is going to be a very.

1142
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 14: Concerted effort to get energy production higher, to get gasoline

1143
00:59:20,320 --> 00:59:23,320
Speaker 14: prices back. I believe they average only around two fifty

1144
00:59:23,320 --> 00:59:26,840
Speaker 14: a gallon under President Trump's first term. So if you

1145
00:59:26,840 --> 00:59:29,240
Speaker 14: can get prices down at the pump, that's savings that

1146
00:59:29,320 --> 00:59:33,080
Speaker 14: immediately go into middle and lower class pocketbooks, and people

1147
00:59:33,120 --> 00:59:36,160
Speaker 14: appreciate because again they could spend money in other goods

1148
00:59:36,160 --> 00:59:36,800
Speaker 14: and services.

1149
00:59:36,840 --> 00:59:39,640
Speaker 8: So energy costs are likely to fall where they go.

1150
00:59:39,920 --> 00:59:42,080
Speaker 14: I'm not sure at this point, but yes, you're correct.

1151
00:59:42,360 --> 00:59:45,280
Speaker 14: The drill maybe drill mantra will be a day one initiative,

1152
00:59:45,280 --> 00:59:49,160
Speaker 14: and you'll see President Trump, through executive order increase leasing

1153
00:59:49,200 --> 00:59:53,000
Speaker 14: and use of federal lands, exploration of offshore drilling. All

1154
00:59:53,040 --> 00:59:56,640
Speaker 14: those things will come back into the fold. Well.

1155
00:59:56,680 --> 00:59:59,600
Speaker 9: We also expect that the President elect, pretty soon after

1156
00:59:59,640 --> 01:00:02,560
Speaker 9: taking office, could use his executive order powers to address

1157
01:00:02,880 --> 01:00:06,760
Speaker 9: the border and migration. He confirmed yesterday reports that he'd

1158
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:10,040
Speaker 9: looked to use the military to enact the mass deportations

1159
01:00:10,080 --> 01:00:12,440
Speaker 9: or get those underway that he said he would on

1160
01:00:12,520 --> 01:00:14,880
Speaker 9: the campaign trail. How quickly do you think that would

1161
01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:16,840
Speaker 9: start to resonate in economic data?

1162
01:00:16,920 --> 01:00:20,680
Speaker 14: J I don't think that immigration actually has had as

1163
01:00:20,720 --> 01:00:23,200
Speaker 14: big an effect on the economy as people think. It's

1164
01:00:23,200 --> 01:00:25,960
Speaker 14: not as if the people who are coming over illegally

1165
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:28,640
Speaker 14: are answering a government questionnaire as to whether they're working.

1166
01:00:29,600 --> 01:00:33,600
Speaker 14: And I'd argue that the president's potential policies already have

1167
01:00:33,800 --> 01:00:37,360
Speaker 14: worked to slow foot traffic, and of course border security

1168
01:00:37,360 --> 01:00:40,760
Speaker 14: implementation will be much stricter, so you'll see the crossings

1169
01:00:40,800 --> 01:00:44,200
Speaker 14: come down. What happens beyond that, I can't say, but

1170
01:00:44,840 --> 01:00:47,040
Speaker 14: I don't think this notion somehow we're going to get

1171
01:00:47,040 --> 01:00:49,880
Speaker 14: this leftward shift and the labor supply curve and of

1172
01:00:49,960 --> 01:00:52,840
Speaker 14: all this inflation, I think is very misleading. You saw

1173
01:00:53,320 --> 01:00:56,440
Speaker 14: under Trump's first term, you saw immigration and border crossings

1174
01:00:56,680 --> 01:00:59,360
Speaker 14: fall to a deminimus level, and yet you had very

1175
01:00:59,360 --> 01:01:02,120
Speaker 14: little inflation, and you still had very good real wage growth.

1176
01:01:02,120 --> 01:01:03,760
Speaker 14: So I don't think this is going to be a

1177
01:01:03,760 --> 01:01:07,240
Speaker 14: factor impacting the larger economy of the labor market in particular.

1178
01:01:08,360 --> 01:01:12,600
Speaker 3: Joela Vorgna, SMBC NICO Securities America, a veteran of the

1179
01:01:12,640 --> 01:01:14,760
Speaker 3: first Trump White House. Joe, it's good to see you.

1180
01:01:14,760 --> 01:01:18,320
Speaker 3: Thank you for the insights as always, fascinating conversation, Kaylee,

1181
01:01:18,360 --> 01:01:20,400
Speaker 3: as we wait for the next big one, of course

1182
01:01:20,440 --> 01:01:23,120
Speaker 3: commerce to be official, but also treasury. This is something

1183
01:01:23,160 --> 01:01:24,360
Speaker 3: we might be waiting the rest of the week for.

1184
01:01:24,440 --> 01:01:29,680
Speaker 3: It sounds like. Thanks for listening to the Balance of

1185
01:01:29,760 --> 01:01:33,240
Speaker 3: Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,

1186
01:01:33,280 --> 01:01:36,600
Speaker 3: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and

1187
01:01:36,640 --> 01:01:39,280
Speaker 3: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC

1188
01:01:39,400 --> 01:01:42,120
Speaker 3: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.