WEBVTT - Trump's "Dangerous" Iran Policy 0:00:15.356 --> 0:00:22.876 Pushkin from Pushkin Industries. This is Deep Background the show 0:00:22.916 --> 0:00:25.916 where we explored the stories behind the stories in the news. 0:00:26.316 --> 0:00:31.116 I'm Noah Feldman. Is Donald Trump leading US into war 0:00:31.196 --> 0:00:35.396 with Iran? One of the signature accomplishments, maybe the signature 0:00:35.396 --> 0:00:38.796 accomplishment of Barack Obama's administration in foreign policy, was a 0:00:38.876 --> 0:00:42.796 complex multi party deal between the United States and Iran 0:00:43.196 --> 0:00:46.756 that ultimately guaranteed that the United States would increasingly allow 0:00:46.796 --> 0:00:50.996 a normalization of international relations for Iran in exchange for 0:00:51.116 --> 0:00:55.396 Iran holding back on its nuclear ambitions. Donald Trump came 0:00:55.436 --> 0:00:58.756 into office having intensely criticized that plan, and since then 0:00:58.836 --> 0:01:02.316 he's adopted a systematic strategy intended to put the screws 0:01:02.356 --> 0:01:06.356 on Iran. But what options does that leave Iran? In 0:01:06.476 --> 0:01:12.356 response to discuss this extremely pressing and worrisome topic, I'm 0:01:12.396 --> 0:01:16.036 thrilled to have with me. Vali Nasser Vali is a 0:01:16.076 --> 0:01:19.596 Middle East scholar, a foreign policy advisor, and a commentator 0:01:19.596 --> 0:01:23.676 on international relations. From twenty and twelve until twenty nineteen, 0:01:23.836 --> 0:01:25.636 he was the dean of the John Hopkins School of 0:01:25.676 --> 0:01:29.276 Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC, and he was a 0:01:29.276 --> 0:01:32.956 special advisor before that in the Obama administration focusing on 0:01:33.196 --> 0:01:37.036 Afghanistan and Pakistan policy. There's nobody that I can think 0:01:37.076 --> 0:01:40.596 of better qualified to talk about these issues. VALI welcome, 0:01:40.796 --> 0:01:43.316 Thank you. So I want to start by asking you 0:01:43.916 --> 0:01:46.596 how bad do you think things are at this moment. 0:01:47.996 --> 0:01:51.876 I think they are. They are bad largely because the 0:01:52.036 --> 0:01:56.636 President's strategy with their on at one level looks like 0:01:56.756 --> 0:02:00.876 very it's very clear. At another level it actually is 0:02:01.196 --> 0:02:04.716 somewhat rather less so. President Trump walked away from the 0:02:04.836 --> 0:02:08.396 nuclear deal and very successfully put a tremendous amount of 0:02:08.396 --> 0:02:13.156 pressure on Europeans, Chinese, Indians, Russians to stop trading with 0:02:13.196 --> 0:02:18.556 Iran and to try to crush Iran's economy. It wasn't 0:02:18.596 --> 0:02:21.436 clear what the purpose is. He said, well, the purpose 0:02:21.436 --> 0:02:23.716 that the maximum pressure is to bring Iran to the 0:02:23.796 --> 0:02:28.356 table so that they would negotiate. His national security advisor 0:02:28.476 --> 0:02:31.596 and his Secretary of State seemed to be suggesting that 0:02:31.596 --> 0:02:34.436 the goal is something much bigger. You know, there words 0:02:35.276 --> 0:02:40.276 expelling Iran literally from Middle East, out of Iraq's area, Afhanistan, 0:02:40.996 --> 0:02:45.596 the Persian Gulf, Yemen, but even further, perhaps pushing for 0:02:45.756 --> 0:02:49.876 regime change in Iran. Trump seems to be essentially talking 0:02:49.876 --> 0:02:52.436 from the both side of his mouth, escalating pressure very 0:02:52.516 --> 0:02:56.516 dangerously narrowing the field for diplomacy, and yet saying that 0:02:56.596 --> 0:02:59.436 he doesn't want war and he wants to talk. But 0:02:59.516 --> 0:03:03.116 in the meantime, he hasn't created any way in which 0:03:03.436 --> 0:03:06.796 the two sides can literally climb down from the tree 0:03:07.196 --> 0:03:12.916 and engage. In fact, Secretary Pompeo and President Trump as rhetorics, 0:03:13.396 --> 0:03:17.756 continuously makes it almost impossible to engage in any kind 0:03:17.756 --> 0:03:21.996 of fruitful talks. So you mentioned, and I think you're 0:03:22.036 --> 0:03:24.556 completely right that the administration sounds like it has two 0:03:24.556 --> 0:03:28.236 different Iran policies. Trump says that he wants to do 0:03:28.356 --> 0:03:30.836 something very similar to the policy that he's tried to 0:03:30.876 --> 0:03:33.236 pursue with everybody else in the world, namely, up the 0:03:33.276 --> 0:03:36.596 pressure on them to get the renegotiation of some pre 0:03:36.676 --> 0:03:39.516 existing deal that he doesn't like. And you know, that's 0:03:39.556 --> 0:03:43.756 Trump talking about NAFTA, that's Trump talking about trade with China, 0:03:43.836 --> 0:03:46.276 that's Trump talking about North Korea. I mean, that's just 0:03:46.356 --> 0:03:48.716 his If he has a vision of how to do 0:03:48.836 --> 0:03:52.276 things in life, that's the vision. But that, of course, 0:03:52.316 --> 0:03:56.316 as you say, implies actual deal making at the end 0:03:56.356 --> 0:04:01.716 of the process. And then you have the Bolton Pompeo view, which, 0:04:01.756 --> 0:04:04.436 as you say, sometimes seems like it's even varying to 0:04:04.436 --> 0:04:06.836 the point of calling for regime change, where the punchline 0:04:06.916 --> 0:04:09.956 is not we talk to you. The punchline is the opposite, 0:04:09.996 --> 0:04:11.756 We want you to come, we want you to be 0:04:11.916 --> 0:04:14.916 to be brought down. Now, I want to ask whether 0:04:14.956 --> 0:04:21.276 that incoherence is seen in in your mind as genuine incoherence. 0:04:21.356 --> 0:04:23.596 Is it the result of just Trump thinking something different 0:04:23.836 --> 0:04:26.076 from what is national security advisor and his secretary of 0:04:26.116 --> 0:04:29.116 State think, or is it more sophisticated than that. Is 0:04:29.116 --> 0:04:32.516 it a kind of two pronged approach where Trump knows 0:04:32.636 --> 0:04:36.636 that the hard line from Bolton and Pompeo strengthens his threat, 0:04:36.716 --> 0:04:39.236 makes him more credible as a threat, and hopes that 0:04:39.276 --> 0:04:41.516 he can then say to the Iranians, Look, you know, 0:04:41.516 --> 0:04:43.876 I have to deal with my Secretary of State of 0:04:43.916 --> 0:04:46.196 my national security advisor, so I have to stay tough 0:04:46.196 --> 0:04:48.956 with you, but look, I will intervene and do a 0:04:49.036 --> 0:04:50.676 deal with you. Do so, do you think the US 0:04:50.716 --> 0:04:53.876 side is incoherent or that Trump is crazy like a fox? 0:04:54.836 --> 0:04:57.956 I think increasingly over the past two years, people have 0:04:58.036 --> 0:05:01.036 come to let's say the Iranians have come to conclude 0:05:01.036 --> 0:05:09.476 that it's incoherence that ultimately Trump has one agenda, which 0:05:09.516 --> 0:05:11.876 is to have talks. He says he doesn't want war, 0:05:12.516 --> 0:05:16.716 and then he's employed people who essentially are pursuing a 0:05:16.796 --> 0:05:19.316 very different strategy. And then, you know, the Iranians compare 0:05:19.396 --> 0:05:22.836 notes with the North Koreans, and the North Korean assumptions 0:05:22.876 --> 0:05:25.116 is the same that you can go in a room 0:05:25.156 --> 0:05:27.356 and make any kind of an agreement with Trump, you 0:05:27.436 --> 0:05:32.156 come out and Pompeo and Bolton shredded to pieces. So 0:05:32.196 --> 0:05:35.236 the Iranians have come to see that, yes, Trump doesn't 0:05:35.236 --> 0:05:38.116 want war, but even if you met with Trump and 0:05:38.156 --> 0:05:41.796 you had an agreement, how does this go forward when 0:05:41.876 --> 0:05:44.436 the people who are in charge of actually carrying the 0:05:44.476 --> 0:05:47.356 ball forward after the principles as we call him, that 0:05:47.396 --> 0:05:50.956 the sort of heads of government's meet actually have no 0:05:51.356 --> 0:05:54.996 desire for this to work, and Trump doesn't seem to 0:05:54.996 --> 0:05:57.556 be able to rein him in. So now let's tack 0:05:57.636 --> 0:06:00.996 to the side of the Iranian perspective. So you're dealing 0:06:01.116 --> 0:06:04.396 imagine that you're, you know, advising the Iranian government, and 0:06:04.796 --> 0:06:07.916 the Iranian government is dealing with a government in the 0:06:07.996 --> 0:06:10.676 United States that has two different approaches that are in 0:06:10.676 --> 0:06:13.276 contradiction with each other, and it can't really expect that 0:06:13.356 --> 0:06:15.716 any true deal is going to come out. There won't be, 0:06:15.796 --> 0:06:20.036 as you say, shredded by Bolton and Pompeo. So what's 0:06:20.076 --> 0:06:23.636 the wisest strategy for Iran to pursuer? What can Iran 0:06:23.716 --> 0:06:27.396 do faced with that set of circumstances and added to 0:06:27.476 --> 0:06:29.916 that the part that is having a huge effect on them, 0:06:29.996 --> 0:06:36.036 namely the significant crackdown on their trading capacities. First, let 0:06:36.036 --> 0:06:39.356 me backtrack. So when Trump came out of the nuclear deal, 0:06:39.356 --> 0:06:42.556 the Iranians didn't really react in a big way. There 0:06:42.636 --> 0:06:47.516 was no uptick in anything in particular. They adopted something 0:06:47.556 --> 0:06:51.116 they call a strategic patients. So let's see, they's waited 0:06:51.156 --> 0:06:54.636 out and hopefully the Europeans, Chinese and the Russians will 0:06:54.716 --> 0:06:57.516 be able to create enough trade to just keep things 0:06:57.636 --> 0:06:59.996 going and you could kick the ball down the road. 0:07:00.476 --> 0:07:03.756 The Europeans didn't come through. Maximum pressure proved to be 0:07:03.836 --> 0:07:08.076 extremely effective, and the Iranians decided that that the statusco 0:07:08.236 --> 0:07:12.716 is generally not sustainable. I mean Trump is perfectly free 0:07:12.796 --> 0:07:16.636 to escalate pressure every five months six months, and the 0:07:16.676 --> 0:07:22.556 Europeans and Chinese, Russians, Indians make you growl, but they're 0:07:22.556 --> 0:07:24.676 just going to go along with the American pressure and 0:07:24.756 --> 0:07:27.956 eventually this can either break the regime or it's going 0:07:27.996 --> 0:07:30.596 to lead to war or something worse. So how do 0:07:30.596 --> 0:07:32.996 you break the impast And you can do it in 0:07:33.036 --> 0:07:36.236 two ways. You could basically show up for talks and 0:07:36.276 --> 0:07:38.796 you hope that that actually would create a wedge between 0:07:39.316 --> 0:07:42.076 Bolton Pompey on the one side and Trump on the other, 0:07:43.156 --> 0:07:47.356 or that you can actually escalate in kind, bring it 0:07:47.396 --> 0:07:50.156 to the brink of war, hoping that that also would 0:07:50.196 --> 0:07:53.996 create a wedge between national security advisors who are happy 0:07:54.036 --> 0:07:56.556 to go to war and Trump, who really doesn't want 0:07:56.556 --> 0:07:59.356 to go to war. The first scenario I think the 0:07:59.436 --> 0:08:03.076 Iranians decided was not for them because, unlike North Korea, 0:08:03.516 --> 0:08:05.916 they actually don't have a nuclear weapon, so they don't 0:08:05.916 --> 0:08:09.076 have much to bargain with the US right now. Whatever 0:08:09.236 --> 0:08:11.916 they had they cashed it in to get the deal 0:08:11.996 --> 0:08:16.316 with Obama. Secondly, they do have domestic politics, and Trump 0:08:16.716 --> 0:08:20.876 and Pompeio have left very little room for anybody in 0:08:20.916 --> 0:08:23.916 Iran to be able to come to the table given 0:08:23.956 --> 0:08:27.876 the rhetoric coming out of Washington and Thirdly, the irun 0:08:28.076 --> 0:08:30.596 Is also understand that, unlike North Korea, there is a 0:08:30.716 --> 0:08:34.396 very entrenched and powerful anti Iran and anti talking to 0:08:34.476 --> 0:08:38.356 Iran lobby in the United States, perhaps even led by 0:08:38.516 --> 0:08:43.196 Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahoo, who is very opposed to this idea, 0:08:43.356 --> 0:08:46.716 and that Trump, you know, they could end up meeting 0:08:46.716 --> 0:08:51.116 with Trump. Trump gets this photo opportunity, but there's not 0:08:51.196 --> 0:08:54.876 going to be much American appetite for actually doing something, 0:08:54.956 --> 0:08:57.876 so this is not really the time to talk. On 0:08:57.916 --> 0:09:01.196 the other hand, they decided that if you escalate, if 0:09:01.196 --> 0:09:04.636 you hit tankers, if you shot an down an American drone, 0:09:05.076 --> 0:09:08.876 if you also talked about war, you will force Trump 0:09:08.876 --> 0:09:13.556 to actually confront the consequences of his policy. And that 0:09:13.836 --> 0:09:17.036 would also force first of all, would put it on 0:09:17.036 --> 0:09:20.356 at a much higher level on his radar so that 0:09:20.796 --> 0:09:23.716 he would actually pay attention to what his minions are doing. 0:09:24.516 --> 0:09:26.796 And secondly, that he would create a wedge. And I 0:09:26.796 --> 0:09:30.036 think they running strategy has worked. So when they shut 0:09:30.076 --> 0:09:33.116 down the American drone, which was a very expensive drone 0:09:33.516 --> 0:09:36.396 flying at thirty five thousand feet, they showed that they 0:09:36.436 --> 0:09:40.556 both have the audacity essentially to push for what might 0:09:40.676 --> 0:09:42.876 end up in war. But also they have capability to 0:09:42.916 --> 0:09:46.236 inflict a lot of pain if the United States ended 0:09:46.316 --> 0:09:49.396 up in war with Iran. And also I think they 0:09:49.436 --> 0:09:55.036 signaled to Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, America's allies in the Gulf, 0:09:55.076 --> 0:09:57.356 that they will take the war to them as well, 0:09:57.516 --> 0:10:01.196 and therefore this can get really ugly. And I think 0:10:01.676 --> 0:10:05.356 they running conclusion was that this paid off. Trump came 0:10:05.396 --> 0:10:08.356 to the edge of making a decision to punish it 0:10:08.436 --> 0:10:10.676 on for shooting down the drone, and then decided to 0:10:10.716 --> 0:10:15.596 walk back, and that opened the wedge between him and 0:10:16.196 --> 0:10:21.956 his national security team, head of CIA, national Security Advisor, 0:10:22.116 --> 0:10:26.316 Secretary of State, all of whom had favored America flexing 0:10:26.356 --> 0:10:29.076 its muscles in response to the shooting down of the drone. 0:10:29.436 --> 0:10:34.116 So I think the Iranians see benefit in enforcing Trump 0:10:34.676 --> 0:10:39.396 to think seriously about something other than maximum pressure bringing 0:10:39.396 --> 0:10:41.916 Iran to the table, which is actually what Iran needs. 0:10:41.996 --> 0:10:45.076 If it is to countenance coming to the table, it 0:10:45.196 --> 0:10:49.996 needs the United States to give it some economic benefits, 0:10:50.796 --> 0:10:54.116 relief some of the economic pressure. So the Iranians could 0:10:54.116 --> 0:10:56.996 even tell their own population that talks is not surrender, 0:10:57.116 --> 0:11:00.476 but rather they're getting something in exchange. For showing up 0:11:00.516 --> 0:11:04.316 for talks, and also that Trump would probably have to 0:11:04.516 --> 0:11:07.676 change his the team that's going to talk to Iran, 0:11:07.796 --> 0:11:10.076 and we already saw that he toyed with the idea 0:11:10.076 --> 0:11:12.956 of Rand Paul playing the role of an envoy. Right. 0:11:13.076 --> 0:11:15.916 I am skeptical that Trump will do can do all 0:11:15.956 --> 0:11:19.476 of this in an election year, but the Iranians may 0:11:19.516 --> 0:11:23.356 have at least bought themselves time until after November twenty 0:11:23.396 --> 0:11:27.076 twenty to see where we go from there. I think 0:11:27.076 --> 0:11:28.996 that's right. And you know what I would like to 0:11:28.996 --> 0:11:31.556 do is try to break it into a simple part 0:11:31.596 --> 0:11:33.756 and a complicated part. The simple part seems to me 0:11:33.836 --> 0:11:37.316 that by shooting down the drone, the Iranians basically said 0:11:37.356 --> 0:11:40.596 to Trump, we're calling your bluff. Are you actually prepared 0:11:40.636 --> 0:11:44.476 to use force against us? And it worked because Trump 0:11:44.596 --> 0:11:46.956 whimped out, you know. I mean, one might think that 0:11:46.996 --> 0:11:48.836 was a good thing or a bad thing, but from 0:11:48.836 --> 0:11:52.516 their perspective, Trump did not retaliate in the end. That 0:11:52.876 --> 0:11:56.236 to me seems like the straightforward part. The complicated part, 0:11:56.276 --> 0:11:59.756 and it's almost mind bendingly complicated, is so now you're 0:11:59.756 --> 0:12:03.116 Iran and you know that although Trump's foreign policy advisors 0:12:03.156 --> 0:12:05.756 are going to keep telling him that he should use 0:12:05.796 --> 0:12:09.636 force against Iran, He's almost certainly not going to do it. 0:12:09.716 --> 0:12:14.756 He doesn't want actual violence, but he does want to 0:12:14.836 --> 0:12:19.916 stick with the weaking of Iran via economic sanctions, and 0:12:19.996 --> 0:12:22.916 maybe that arrangement is one that he's perfectly happy to continue, 0:12:22.916 --> 0:12:26.116 and maybe even his advisers are happy to continue it. 0:12:26.316 --> 0:12:30.236 And from Iran's perspective, there's not much obvious that you 0:12:30.236 --> 0:12:32.676 can do in response. And this is really the crux 0:12:32.716 --> 0:12:34.876 of what I'm trying to understand from the Iranian perspective. 0:12:34.916 --> 0:12:37.996 I mean, if they know that Trump is not likely 0:12:38.036 --> 0:12:41.236 to compromise with them on the trade sanctions that are 0:12:41.316 --> 0:12:43.996 hurting them so much, and they also know that he's 0:12:44.036 --> 0:12:47.916 probably not going to use violence, what benefit do they 0:12:47.956 --> 0:12:50.756 have in continuing to up the ante. They probably don't 0:12:50.796 --> 0:12:53.076 have that much benefit. That they probably need to just 0:12:53.196 --> 0:12:55.676 try to survive. Isn't that sort of the best strategy 0:12:55.716 --> 0:12:58.876 available to them in that moment. Well, in the short run, 0:12:58.916 --> 0:13:01.076 that's the case. But I don't think the Iranians can 0:13:01.116 --> 0:13:04.516 sustain this situation for four years if Trump gets reelected, 0:13:05.196 --> 0:13:07.116 So I think at some point in time they would 0:13:07.156 --> 0:13:09.876 have to take the idea of talking to Trump seriously. 0:13:10.236 --> 0:13:11.796 But what if he just doesn't want to talk. What 0:13:11.876 --> 0:13:14.796 if he actually wants to say about talk about talking, 0:13:15.076 --> 0:13:17.876 but Trump actually doesn't want to talk. I mean, one 0:13:17.876 --> 0:13:19.556 thing that you have to keep in mind about Trump, 0:13:19.636 --> 0:13:21.476 I think, and I'm sure the Iranians do think about this, 0:13:21.556 --> 0:13:24.356 is he doesn't do foreign policy the way you and 0:13:24.396 --> 0:13:26.516 I were brought up to think about foreign policy, where 0:13:26.556 --> 0:13:28.276 you know, we were taught and we teach our students 0:13:28.716 --> 0:13:31.396 choose your objective and then find the rational strategy to 0:13:31.396 --> 0:13:34.236 pursue your objective. But Trump doesn't always do it that way. 0:13:34.316 --> 0:13:36.956 Sometimes he just wants a perception to be created out there, say, 0:13:37.156 --> 0:13:41.996 a perception of toughness aimed primarily to domestic audience. And 0:13:42.316 --> 0:13:44.116 you know, his only constraint is he doesn't want to 0:13:44.116 --> 0:13:46.396 be in a war. Then he does want to look tough, 0:13:46.436 --> 0:13:50.036 and so in that sense, he's not very clearly pursuing 0:13:50.036 --> 0:13:52.116 an objective. You know, you might give him a low 0:13:52.156 --> 0:13:54.156 grade if he were teaching him in foreign policy, but 0:13:54.196 --> 0:13:55.956 it doesn't matter. He's the president of United States and 0:13:56.036 --> 0:13:59.436 this is the policy that he's pursuing. Well, that's exactly 0:13:59.476 --> 0:14:04.156 why this becomes very dangerous because ultimately you have to say, Okay, 0:14:04.156 --> 0:14:07.676 what are Iran's options if Trump doesn't want to talk 0:14:07.676 --> 0:14:09.716 to them and he just wants to apply pressure. So 0:14:09.756 --> 0:14:12.556 either they have to say voluntarily we're going to dismantle 0:14:12.636 --> 0:14:16.276 the regime, which is not likely to happen, right, or 0:14:16.316 --> 0:14:20.236 that they actually, you know, go down the path of 0:14:20.276 --> 0:14:24.236 trying to force Trump to choose between war and diplomacy, 0:14:24.796 --> 0:14:27.276 so they get it to a point that even hanging 0:14:27.276 --> 0:14:29.036 tough would mean that he has to go to war 0:14:29.116 --> 0:14:32.996 with Iran or that he has to talk to them. 0:14:33.036 --> 0:14:35.716 So in a way, you could say, the tables get turned. 0:14:36.316 --> 0:14:39.196 So it's Trump that was originally putting maximum pressure to 0:14:39.196 --> 0:14:41.756 get them to the table, and it could become Iran 0:14:41.836 --> 0:14:44.956 that's putting maximum pressure on Trump to come to the table. 0:14:45.676 --> 0:14:48.956 And I think that's exactly why the way in which 0:14:48.996 --> 0:14:53.556 Trump does foreign policy is so dangerous, because you know, 0:14:53.636 --> 0:14:59.196 he plays with fire without actually wanting to use force 0:14:59.316 --> 0:15:01.276 when it comes to it. I think the point that 0:15:01.316 --> 0:15:03.796 you're making, Valley is is hugely significant, and I think 0:15:04.076 --> 0:15:06.716 I don't think it's been made clearly enough in the 0:15:06.756 --> 0:15:09.636 minds at least of most Americans, even those who followed 0:15:09.636 --> 0:15:12.796 foreign policy pretty closely. So let me say it. Say 0:15:12.796 --> 0:15:14.036 it back to you and see if you tell me 0:15:14.036 --> 0:15:16.316 if I'm getting it right. What I hear you saying 0:15:16.556 --> 0:15:19.836 is that by pursuing this policy, Trump hasn't really taken 0:15:19.836 --> 0:15:22.836 into account that he may push Iron to the point 0:15:22.876 --> 0:15:26.036 where it feels it has to provoke a war, it 0:15:26.076 --> 0:15:27.916 has to come very very close to provoking a war, 0:15:28.036 --> 0:15:31.676 maybe actually provoke a war, just in order to get 0:15:31.716 --> 0:15:35.276 Trump to negotiate and there by to put the power 0:15:35.316 --> 0:15:38.196 in there on their side. And I guess the question 0:15:38.236 --> 0:15:41.156 I have for you there is is that plausible from 0:15:41.156 --> 0:15:43.756 me Iron's perspective? I mean, wouldn't a war? Of course 0:15:43.756 --> 0:15:46.276 they could inflict damage on American allies, They could inflict 0:15:46.436 --> 0:15:48.796 damage on the United States, They could inflict damage on 0:15:49.196 --> 0:15:52.316 Israel and on Saudi Arabia and on the UAE. But 0:15:52.436 --> 0:15:56.516 could they survive a genuine war? And if they couldn't, 0:15:57.276 --> 0:16:00.396 then how much are they going to be willing to 0:16:00.476 --> 0:16:06.716 risk going down that path? Well, you know, the dilemma 0:16:06.836 --> 0:16:09.636 that Trump has created is that if you give Iran 0:16:10.036 --> 0:16:12.276 only bad choices, they're going to pick one of the 0:16:12.356 --> 0:16:16.956 bad choices. I mean, you know, I don't see this 0:16:17.036 --> 0:16:21.316 region voluntarily dismantling. And now it's sort of a body 0:16:21.316 --> 0:16:23.956 into the idea that you could force Trump to blink, 0:16:24.316 --> 0:16:26.556 so they can go down that path of trying to 0:16:26.956 --> 0:16:30.116 have him blink again and again, and they may make 0:16:30.156 --> 0:16:32.916 a mistake or go one step too far and actually 0:16:33.036 --> 0:16:35.436 end up getting a war. I think, you know, the 0:16:35.476 --> 0:16:38.116 irony here is that neither the United States, or at 0:16:38.156 --> 0:16:42.156 least neither Trump nor Iran want war right but there 0:16:42.276 --> 0:16:45.596 is no room right now for anything else. You know, 0:16:45.636 --> 0:16:48.756 as the Trump says the pathway to talks are there, 0:16:48.836 --> 0:16:53.956 but that's not really the case. And therefore, you know, 0:16:53.996 --> 0:16:56.676 the sort of the Iranians have very few options left 0:16:56.716 --> 0:17:01.676 before them other than basically sitting and watching their country 0:17:01.716 --> 0:17:06.036 come apart. And there are those within Iran's hardliners who 0:17:06.116 --> 0:17:07.716 argued that, look, if we're going to end up in 0:17:07.716 --> 0:17:09.836 a war with the United States, it's better we do 0:17:09.876 --> 0:17:12.236 it now when we're still strong, than do it twenty 0:17:12.316 --> 0:17:14.676 years from now. Has happened with Saddam, where nothing is 0:17:14.756 --> 0:17:18.676 left of our institutions. And I think, you know, if 0:17:18.716 --> 0:17:22.676 Trump gets reelected, the Iranians have to look at four 0:17:22.796 --> 0:17:26.356 more years of the same policy, and then they have 0:17:26.436 --> 0:17:29.236 to sort of calculate can they survive four more years 0:17:29.276 --> 0:17:34.196 of the same thing, where every six months Trump keeps escalating, 0:17:35.196 --> 0:17:38.396 or are they going to really force, you know, try 0:17:38.436 --> 0:17:41.756 to force their way out of this situation. Either by 0:17:41.876 --> 0:17:44.916 there are two ways of doing it. They audaciously give 0:17:44.996 --> 0:17:48.436 him an offer of talks that that he can't refuse 0:17:49.756 --> 0:17:52.356 and I don't see that happening under this supreme leader. 0:17:53.316 --> 0:17:56.116 Or they have to force Trump to really think about 0:17:56.156 --> 0:17:59.036 the fact that the danger of war is imminent and 0:17:59.076 --> 0:18:02.356 he needs to find a way out. So I want 0:18:02.396 --> 0:18:05.996 to ask about what this means for moderates in Iran. 0:18:06.036 --> 0:18:09.796 I mean, you describe the position that the hardliners take, namely, 0:18:09.996 --> 0:18:13.076 betterify the war now when we have real leverage, then 0:18:13.156 --> 0:18:16.276 at some later time. If you're an Iranian moderate and 0:18:16.276 --> 0:18:21.476 you supported the deal with Obama and you thought that 0:18:21.556 --> 0:18:24.436 Rohanni had done a good job by brokering that deal, 0:18:25.356 --> 0:18:27.316 now do you have a leg to stand on. I mean, 0:18:27.356 --> 0:18:30.836 I have moderates in Iran just been completely discredited by 0:18:30.876 --> 0:18:35.116 the rise of the Trump policy. Yes, I think that's 0:18:35.156 --> 0:18:38.876 one of the that's one of the tragedies of Trump's 0:18:38.876 --> 0:18:42.556 policy towards Iran. So all the moderates have either been 0:18:43.196 --> 0:18:47.796 marginalized or have been radicalized. Even the moderates are trying 0:18:47.836 --> 0:18:53.956 to distance themselves from the nuclear deal, and in fact, 0:18:54.076 --> 0:18:57.916 even in the past year, there was hope that still 0:18:57.956 --> 0:19:01.556 the Moderates could sustain themselves if Europe actually had stood 0:19:01.596 --> 0:19:04.716 up to Trump and tried to protect doing business with 0:19:04.796 --> 0:19:09.036 Iran even at the risk of sanctions. And Europe folded completely. 0:19:09.876 --> 0:19:13.196 There was no appetite in Europe in any way to 0:19:13.316 --> 0:19:18.156 do something through central banks or governments and actually do 0:19:18.316 --> 0:19:20.956 business with Iran in a way that would keep the 0:19:21.236 --> 0:19:28.196 nuclear deal genuinely alive, so that the moderates really don't 0:19:28.196 --> 0:19:32.156 have anything to offer. And I think some presidential elections, 0:19:32.156 --> 0:19:38.196 parliamentary elections, they're going to be completely sidelines. And in 0:19:38.236 --> 0:19:42.316 a way, in an ironic way, Trump has achieved regime 0:19:42.396 --> 0:19:45.716 change in Iran, except the wrong regime change. He's handed 0:19:45.716 --> 0:19:50.236 Iran to militaristic hardliners who would be now very difficult 0:19:50.236 --> 0:19:53.596 to dislodge going forward. I wanted to ask about the 0:19:53.636 --> 0:19:57.156 Europeans and why they did fold so immediately and completely. 0:19:57.196 --> 0:20:00.916 You know, when when the obaministration was putting the finishing 0:20:00.956 --> 0:20:04.076 touches on the Iran Deal, one of the structures that 0:20:04.596 --> 0:20:08.516 seemed to be actually desirable was that even if the 0:20:08.636 --> 0:20:11.196 United Dates were to back out of the deal in 0:20:11.196 --> 0:20:15.396 a future administration, it was still nominally up to Europe 0:20:15.836 --> 0:20:18.276 to continue to make its own judgment about whether Iran 0:20:18.316 --> 0:20:20.596 had renected on the deal and therefore to continue trade. 0:20:21.036 --> 0:20:23.276 And the theory at the time many people believe this, 0:20:23.316 --> 0:20:25.276 I certainly thought it at the time was that this 0:20:25.356 --> 0:20:28.156 was a good failsafe measure in the deal that even 0:20:28.156 --> 0:20:29.956 if the United States backed out, it wouldn't really matter 0:20:29.996 --> 0:20:32.476 the United States had backed out because Iran could still 0:20:32.476 --> 0:20:35.076 do business with Europeans. But as you noted, the Trump 0:20:35.076 --> 0:20:39.236 administration applied some pressure and the Europeans completely backed down. 0:20:39.836 --> 0:20:42.836 Why is that just because they have so many of 0:20:42.836 --> 0:20:44.516 their own worries about Trump that they don't want to 0:20:44.516 --> 0:20:47.236 annoy him about Iran or is it based on any 0:20:47.276 --> 0:20:51.876 actual attitude towards Iran. I think they may hide behind 0:20:51.956 --> 0:20:55.756 attitude towards Iran, like you know, because Iran has missiles 0:20:55.796 --> 0:20:57.956 or his bola, this makes it difficult for us to 0:20:58.596 --> 0:21:01.156 abide by the nuclear deal. But but the reality of 0:21:01.156 --> 0:21:05.396 it is that Trump showed with Europe that the emperor 0:21:05.476 --> 0:21:08.676 has no clothes, you know, as the Europeans have no 0:21:08.756 --> 0:21:11.356 will of their own and there are not really independent 0:21:11.436 --> 0:21:15.796 international actors. That Europe, for all practical purposes, is a 0:21:15.916 --> 0:21:20.076 vestige of American foreign policy, even though Trump looks down 0:21:20.116 --> 0:21:24.236 on Europe and likes to weaken Europe, but in reality 0:21:24.276 --> 0:21:28.556 has also shown that Europeans really are not independent of 0:21:28.636 --> 0:21:31.636 US foreign policy. Now, this has much broader implications. It's 0:21:31.636 --> 0:21:34.796 not about Iran. If you're China, if you're Russia, if 0:21:34.796 --> 0:21:38.276 you're any other country around the world sitting and watching this, 0:21:39.476 --> 0:21:42.476 you basically come to the same conclusion that you know, 0:21:42.556 --> 0:21:46.356 if there is an international deal that the Europeans step 0:21:46.436 --> 0:21:49.116 in and say, well, you're we're the brokers, as a 0:21:49.156 --> 0:21:55.036 big unit in international affairs, as protectors of rule of law, multilateralism. 0:21:55.196 --> 0:21:58.116 We're going to put our name to this deal. It's meaningless. 0:21:59.036 --> 0:22:01.316 And one of the outcomes of this entire thing is 0:22:01.796 --> 0:22:06.956 that Trump has basically shredded European legitimacy and shown Europe 0:22:06.996 --> 0:22:09.956 to be vassals of the United States. And that has 0:22:10.036 --> 0:22:13.796 broad implications if you would, for the great power rivalry 0:22:13.836 --> 0:22:19.436 that is likely to unfold going forward between Russia, China, 0:22:19.516 --> 0:22:22.436 and the United States. And again, I think a folly 0:22:22.476 --> 0:22:27.276 of Trump's foreign policy is that if that's really the case, 0:22:27.676 --> 0:22:31.196 if it's really the big game of big power is 0:22:31.236 --> 0:22:35.236 between you and China and Russia, it always would have 0:22:35.276 --> 0:22:38.116 benefited the United States to have Europe as a foil, 0:22:38.196 --> 0:22:41.076 as a fourth partner there that looks like, you know, 0:22:41.236 --> 0:22:43.796 is an independent actor, and then you know, would benefit 0:22:43.876 --> 0:22:50.116 the United States interests. By completely shredding Europe's credibility, Trump 0:22:50.116 --> 0:22:53.356 has ended up i think, weekend in America's hand internationally 0:22:53.396 --> 0:22:57.356 because the Europeans won't matter to the great power rivalry anymore. Well, 0:22:57.556 --> 0:22:59.316 I wanted to also ask you about a really interesting 0:22:59.356 --> 0:23:02.036 piece that you wrote where you argued in The Atlantic 0:23:02.556 --> 0:23:07.316 that Trump's Iran policy is a gift to China. That's 0:23:07.356 --> 0:23:10.276 not intuitive at all, and you make a pretty complex 0:23:10.476 --> 0:23:12.316 and interesting argument. So I wonder if you would just 0:23:12.316 --> 0:23:15.636 describe that argument. Well, you know, we we often when 0:23:15.636 --> 0:23:18.476 we think about China and rivalry with China, we only 0:23:18.516 --> 0:23:23.116 think about East Asia in the vestige of America's old 0:23:23.156 --> 0:23:26.116 thinking that we think of China as a pacific power. 0:23:26.676 --> 0:23:31.836 China is increasingly a continental power. Its interests are moving westwards. 0:23:32.596 --> 0:23:37.476