1 00:00:15,356 --> 00:00:22,876 Speaker 1: Pushkin from Pushkin Industries. This is Deep Background the show 2 00:00:22,916 --> 00:00:25,916 Speaker 1: where we explored the stories behind the stories in the news. 3 00:00:26,316 --> 00:00:31,116 Speaker 1: I'm Noah Feldman. Is Donald Trump leading US into war 4 00:00:31,196 --> 00:00:35,396 Speaker 1: with Iran? One of the signature accomplishments, maybe the signature 5 00:00:35,396 --> 00:00:38,796 Speaker 1: accomplishment of Barack Obama's administration in foreign policy, was a 6 00:00:38,876 --> 00:00:42,796 Speaker 1: complex multi party deal between the United States and Iran 7 00:00:43,196 --> 00:00:46,756 Speaker 1: that ultimately guaranteed that the United States would increasingly allow 8 00:00:46,796 --> 00:00:50,996 Speaker 1: a normalization of international relations for Iran in exchange for 9 00:00:51,116 --> 00:00:55,396 Speaker 1: Iran holding back on its nuclear ambitions. Donald Trump came 10 00:00:55,436 --> 00:00:58,756 Speaker 1: into office having intensely criticized that plan, and since then 11 00:00:58,836 --> 00:01:02,316 Speaker 1: he's adopted a systematic strategy intended to put the screws 12 00:01:02,356 --> 00:01:06,356 Speaker 1: on Iran. But what options does that leave Iran? In 13 00:01:06,476 --> 00:01:12,356 Speaker 1: response to discuss this extremely pressing and worrisome topic, I'm 14 00:01:12,396 --> 00:01:16,036 Speaker 1: thrilled to have with me. Vali Nasser Vali is a 15 00:01:16,076 --> 00:01:19,596 Speaker 1: Middle East scholar, a foreign policy advisor, and a commentator 16 00:01:19,596 --> 00:01:23,676 Speaker 1: on international relations. From twenty and twelve until twenty nineteen, 17 00:01:23,836 --> 00:01:25,636 Speaker 1: he was the dean of the John Hopkins School of 18 00:01:25,676 --> 00:01:29,276 Speaker 1: Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC, and he was a 19 00:01:29,276 --> 00:01:32,956 Speaker 1: special advisor before that in the Obama administration focusing on 20 00:01:33,196 --> 00:01:37,036 Speaker 1: Afghanistan and Pakistan policy. There's nobody that I can think 21 00:01:37,076 --> 00:01:40,596 Speaker 1: of better qualified to talk about these issues. VALI welcome, 22 00:01:40,796 --> 00:01:43,316 Speaker 1: Thank you. So I want to start by asking you 23 00:01:43,916 --> 00:01:46,596 Speaker 1: how bad do you think things are at this moment. 24 00:01:47,996 --> 00:01:51,876 Speaker 1: I think they are. They are bad largely because the 25 00:01:52,036 --> 00:01:56,636 Speaker 1: President's strategy with their on at one level looks like 26 00:01:56,756 --> 00:02:00,876 Speaker 1: very it's very clear. At another level it actually is 27 00:02:01,196 --> 00:02:04,716 Speaker 1: somewhat rather less so. President Trump walked away from the 28 00:02:04,836 --> 00:02:08,396 Speaker 1: nuclear deal and very successfully put a tremendous amount of 29 00:02:08,396 --> 00:02:13,156 Speaker 1: pressure on Europeans, Chinese, Indians, Russians to stop trading with 30 00:02:13,196 --> 00:02:18,556 Speaker 1: Iran and to try to crush Iran's economy. It wasn't 31 00:02:18,596 --> 00:02:21,436 Speaker 1: clear what the purpose is. He said, well, the purpose 32 00:02:21,436 --> 00:02:23,716 Speaker 1: that the maximum pressure is to bring Iran to the 33 00:02:23,796 --> 00:02:28,356 Speaker 1: table so that they would negotiate. His national security advisor 34 00:02:28,476 --> 00:02:31,596 Speaker 1: and his Secretary of State seemed to be suggesting that 35 00:02:31,596 --> 00:02:34,436 Speaker 1: the goal is something much bigger. You know, there words 36 00:02:35,276 --> 00:02:40,276 Speaker 1: expelling Iran literally from Middle East, out of Iraq's area, Afhanistan, 37 00:02:40,996 --> 00:02:45,596 Speaker 1: the Persian Gulf, Yemen, but even further, perhaps pushing for 38 00:02:45,756 --> 00:02:49,876 Speaker 1: regime change in Iran. Trump seems to be essentially talking 39 00:02:49,876 --> 00:02:52,436 Speaker 1: from the both side of his mouth, escalating pressure very 40 00:02:52,516 --> 00:02:56,516 Speaker 1: dangerously narrowing the field for diplomacy, and yet saying that 41 00:02:56,596 --> 00:02:59,436 Speaker 1: he doesn't want war and he wants to talk. But 42 00:02:59,516 --> 00:03:03,116 Speaker 1: in the meantime, he hasn't created any way in which 43 00:03:03,436 --> 00:03:06,796 Speaker 1: the two sides can literally climb down from the tree 44 00:03:07,196 --> 00:03:12,916 Speaker 1: and engage. In fact, Secretary Pompeo and President Trump as rhetorics, 45 00:03:13,396 --> 00:03:17,756 Speaker 1: continuously makes it almost impossible to engage in any kind 46 00:03:17,756 --> 00:03:21,996 Speaker 1: of fruitful talks. So you mentioned, and I think you're 47 00:03:22,036 --> 00:03:24,556 Speaker 1: completely right that the administration sounds like it has two 48 00:03:24,556 --> 00:03:28,236 Speaker 1: different Iran policies. Trump says that he wants to do 49 00:03:28,356 --> 00:03:30,836 Speaker 1: something very similar to the policy that he's tried to 50 00:03:30,876 --> 00:03:33,236 Speaker 1: pursue with everybody else in the world, namely, up the 51 00:03:33,276 --> 00:03:36,596 Speaker 1: pressure on them to get the renegotiation of some pre 52 00:03:36,676 --> 00:03:39,516 Speaker 1: existing deal that he doesn't like. And you know, that's 53 00:03:39,556 --> 00:03:43,756 Speaker 1: Trump talking about NAFTA, that's Trump talking about trade with China, 54 00:03:43,836 --> 00:03:46,276 Speaker 1: that's Trump talking about North Korea. I mean, that's just 55 00:03:46,356 --> 00:03:48,716 Speaker 1: his If he has a vision of how to do 56 00:03:48,836 --> 00:03:52,276 Speaker 1: things in life, that's the vision. But that, of course, 57 00:03:52,316 --> 00:03:56,316 Speaker 1: as you say, implies actual deal making at the end 58 00:03:56,356 --> 00:04:01,716 Speaker 1: of the process. And then you have the Bolton Pompeo view, which, 59 00:04:01,756 --> 00:04:04,436 Speaker 1: as you say, sometimes seems like it's even varying to 60 00:04:04,436 --> 00:04:06,836 Speaker 1: the point of calling for regime change, where the punchline 61 00:04:06,916 --> 00:04:09,956 Speaker 1: is not we talk to you. The punchline is the opposite, 62 00:04:09,996 --> 00:04:11,756 Speaker 1: We want you to come, we want you to be 63 00:04:11,916 --> 00:04:14,916 Speaker 1: to be brought down. Now, I want to ask whether 64 00:04:14,956 --> 00:04:21,276 Speaker 1: that incoherence is seen in in your mind as genuine incoherence. 65 00:04:21,356 --> 00:04:23,596 Speaker 1: Is it the result of just Trump thinking something different 66 00:04:23,836 --> 00:04:26,076 Speaker 1: from what is national security advisor and his secretary of 67 00:04:26,116 --> 00:04:29,116 Speaker 1: State think, or is it more sophisticated than that. Is 68 00:04:29,116 --> 00:04:32,516 Speaker 1: it a kind of two pronged approach where Trump knows 69 00:04:32,636 --> 00:04:36,636 Speaker 1: that the hard line from Bolton and Pompeo strengthens his threat, 70 00:04:36,716 --> 00:04:39,236 Speaker 1: makes him more credible as a threat, and hopes that 71 00:04:39,276 --> 00:04:41,516 Speaker 1: he can then say to the Iranians, Look, you know, 72 00:04:41,516 --> 00:04:43,876 Speaker 1: I have to deal with my Secretary of State of 73 00:04:43,916 --> 00:04:46,196 Speaker 1: my national security advisor, so I have to stay tough 74 00:04:46,196 --> 00:04:48,956 Speaker 1: with you, but look, I will intervene and do a 75 00:04:49,036 --> 00:04:50,676 Speaker 1: deal with you. Do so, do you think the US 76 00:04:50,716 --> 00:04:53,876 Speaker 1: side is incoherent or that Trump is crazy like a fox? 77 00:04:54,836 --> 00:04:57,956 Speaker 1: I think increasingly over the past two years, people have 78 00:04:58,036 --> 00:05:01,036 Speaker 1: come to let's say the Iranians have come to conclude 79 00:05:01,036 --> 00:05:09,476 Speaker 1: that it's incoherence that ultimately Trump has one agenda, which 80 00:05:09,516 --> 00:05:11,876 Speaker 1: is to have talks. He says he doesn't want war, 81 00:05:12,516 --> 00:05:16,716 Speaker 1: and then he's employed people who essentially are pursuing a 82 00:05:16,796 --> 00:05:19,316 Speaker 1: very different strategy. And then, you know, the Iranians compare 83 00:05:19,396 --> 00:05:22,836 Speaker 1: notes with the North Koreans, and the North Korean assumptions 84 00:05:22,876 --> 00:05:25,116 Speaker 1: is the same that you can go in a room 85 00:05:25,156 --> 00:05:27,356 Speaker 1: and make any kind of an agreement with Trump, you 86 00:05:27,436 --> 00:05:32,156 Speaker 1: come out and Pompeo and Bolton shredded to pieces. So 87 00:05:32,196 --> 00:05:35,236 Speaker 1: the Iranians have come to see that, yes, Trump doesn't 88 00:05:35,236 --> 00:05:38,116 Speaker 1: want war, but even if you met with Trump and 89 00:05:38,156 --> 00:05:41,796 Speaker 1: you had an agreement, how does this go forward when 90 00:05:41,876 --> 00:05:44,436 Speaker 1: the people who are in charge of actually carrying the 91 00:05:44,476 --> 00:05:47,356 Speaker 1: ball forward after the principles as we call him, that 92 00:05:47,396 --> 00:05:50,956 Speaker 1: the sort of heads of government's meet actually have no 93 00:05:51,356 --> 00:05:54,996 Speaker 1: desire for this to work, and Trump doesn't seem to 94 00:05:54,996 --> 00:05:57,556 Speaker 1: be able to rein him in. So now let's tack 95 00:05:57,636 --> 00:06:00,996 Speaker 1: to the side of the Iranian perspective. So you're dealing 96 00:06:01,116 --> 00:06:04,396 Speaker 1: imagine that you're, you know, advising the Iranian government, and 97 00:06:04,796 --> 00:06:07,916 Speaker 1: the Iranian government is dealing with a government in the 98 00:06:07,996 --> 00:06:10,676 Speaker 1: United States that has two different approaches that are in 99 00:06:10,676 --> 00:06:13,276 Speaker 1: contradiction with each other, and it can't really expect that 100 00:06:13,356 --> 00:06:15,716 Speaker 1: any true deal is going to come out. There won't be, 101 00:06:15,796 --> 00:06:20,036 Speaker 1: as you say, shredded by Bolton and Pompeo. So what's 102 00:06:20,076 --> 00:06:23,636 Speaker 1: the wisest strategy for Iran to pursuer? What can Iran 103 00:06:23,716 --> 00:06:27,396 Speaker 1: do faced with that set of circumstances and added to 104 00:06:27,476 --> 00:06:29,916 Speaker 1: that the part that is having a huge effect on them, 105 00:06:29,996 --> 00:06:36,036 Speaker 1: namely the significant crackdown on their trading capacities. First, let 106 00:06:36,036 --> 00:06:39,356 Speaker 1: me backtrack. So when Trump came out of the nuclear deal, 107 00:06:39,356 --> 00:06:42,556 Speaker 1: the Iranians didn't really react in a big way. There 108 00:06:42,636 --> 00:06:47,516 Speaker 1: was no uptick in anything in particular. They adopted something 109 00:06:47,556 --> 00:06:51,116 Speaker 1: they call a strategic patients. So let's see, they's waited 110 00:06:51,156 --> 00:06:54,636 Speaker 1: out and hopefully the Europeans, Chinese and the Russians will 111 00:06:54,716 --> 00:06:57,516 Speaker 1: be able to create enough trade to just keep things 112 00:06:57,636 --> 00:06:59,996 Speaker 1: going and you could kick the ball down the road. 113 00:07:00,476 --> 00:07:03,756 Speaker 1: The Europeans didn't come through. Maximum pressure proved to be 114 00:07:03,836 --> 00:07:08,076 Speaker 1: extremely effective, and the Iranians decided that that the statusco 115 00:07:08,236 --> 00:07:12,716 Speaker 1: is generally not sustainable. I mean Trump is perfectly free 116 00:07:12,796 --> 00:07:16,636 Speaker 1: to escalate pressure every five months six months, and the 117 00:07:16,676 --> 00:07:22,556 Speaker 1: Europeans and Chinese, Russians, Indians make you growl, but they're 118 00:07:22,556 --> 00:07:24,676 Speaker 1: just going to go along with the American pressure and 119 00:07:24,756 --> 00:07:27,956 Speaker 1: eventually this can either break the regime or it's going 120 00:07:27,996 --> 00:07:30,596 Speaker 1: to lead to war or something worse. So how do 121 00:07:30,596 --> 00:07:32,996 Speaker 1: you break the impast And you can do it in 122 00:07:33,036 --> 00:07:36,236 Speaker 1: two ways. You could basically show up for talks and 123 00:07:36,276 --> 00:07:38,796 Speaker 1: you hope that that actually would create a wedge between 124 00:07:39,316 --> 00:07:42,076 Speaker 1: Bolton Pompey on the one side and Trump on the other, 125 00:07:43,156 --> 00:07:47,356 Speaker 1: or that you can actually escalate in kind, bring it 126 00:07:47,396 --> 00:07:50,156 Speaker 1: to the brink of war, hoping that that also would 127 00:07:50,196 --> 00:07:53,996 Speaker 1: create a wedge between national security advisors who are happy 128 00:07:54,036 --> 00:07:56,556 Speaker 1: to go to war and Trump, who really doesn't want 129 00:07:56,556 --> 00:07:59,356 Speaker 1: to go to war. The first scenario I think the 130 00:07:59,436 --> 00:08:03,076 Speaker 1: Iranians decided was not for them because, unlike North Korea, 131 00:08:03,516 --> 00:08:05,916 Speaker 1: they actually don't have a nuclear weapon, so they don't 132 00:08:05,916 --> 00:08:09,076 Speaker 1: have much to bargain with the US right now. Whatever 133 00:08:09,236 --> 00:08:11,916 Speaker 1: they had they cashed it in to get the deal 134 00:08:11,996 --> 00:08:16,316 Speaker 1: with Obama. Secondly, they do have domestic politics, and Trump 135 00:08:16,716 --> 00:08:20,876 Speaker 1: and Pompeio have left very little room for anybody in 136 00:08:20,916 --> 00:08:23,916 Speaker 1: Iran to be able to come to the table given 137 00:08:23,956 --> 00:08:27,876 Speaker 1: the rhetoric coming out of Washington and Thirdly, the irun 138 00:08:28,076 --> 00:08:30,596 Speaker 1: Is also understand that, unlike North Korea, there is a 139 00:08:30,716 --> 00:08:34,396 Speaker 1: very entrenched and powerful anti Iran and anti talking to 140 00:08:34,476 --> 00:08:38,356 Speaker 1: Iran lobby in the United States, perhaps even led by 141 00:08:38,516 --> 00:08:43,196 Speaker 1: Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahoo, who is very opposed to this idea, 142 00:08:43,356 --> 00:08:46,716 Speaker 1: and that Trump, you know, they could end up meeting 143 00:08:46,716 --> 00:08:51,116 Speaker 1: with Trump. Trump gets this photo opportunity, but there's not 144 00:08:51,196 --> 00:08:54,876 Speaker 1: going to be much American appetite for actually doing something, 145 00:08:54,956 --> 00:08:57,876 Speaker 1: so this is not really the time to talk. On 146 00:08:57,916 --> 00:09:01,196 Speaker 1: the other hand, they decided that if you escalate, if 147 00:09:01,196 --> 00:09:04,636 Speaker 1: you hit tankers, if you shot an down an American drone, 148 00:09:05,076 --> 00:09:08,876 Speaker 1: if you also talked about war, you will force Trump 149 00:09:08,876 --> 00:09:13,556 Speaker 1: to actually confront the consequences of his policy. And that 150 00:09:13,836 --> 00:09:17,036 Speaker 1: would also force first of all, would put it on 151 00:09:17,036 --> 00:09:20,356 Speaker 1: at a much higher level on his radar so that 152 00:09:20,796 --> 00:09:23,716 Speaker 1: he would actually pay attention to what his minions are doing. 153 00:09:24,516 --> 00:09:26,796 Speaker 1: And secondly, that he would create a wedge. And I 154 00:09:26,796 --> 00:09:30,036 Speaker 1: think they running strategy has worked. So when they shut 155 00:09:30,076 --> 00:09:33,116 Speaker 1: down the American drone, which was a very expensive drone 156 00:09:33,516 --> 00:09:36,396 Speaker 1: flying at thirty five thousand feet, they showed that they 157 00:09:36,436 --> 00:09:40,556 Speaker 1: both have the audacity essentially to push for what might 158 00:09:40,676 --> 00:09:42,876 Speaker 1: end up in war. But also they have capability to 159 00:09:42,916 --> 00:09:46,236 Speaker 1: inflict a lot of pain if the United States ended 160 00:09:46,316 --> 00:09:49,396 Speaker 1: up in war with Iran. And also I think they 161 00:09:49,436 --> 00:09:55,036 Speaker 1: signaled to Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, America's allies in the Gulf, 162 00:09:55,076 --> 00:09:57,356 Speaker 1: that they will take the war to them as well, 163 00:09:57,516 --> 00:10:01,196 Speaker 1: and therefore this can get really ugly. And I think 164 00:10:01,676 --> 00:10:05,356 Speaker 1: they running conclusion was that this paid off. Trump came 165 00:10:05,396 --> 00:10:08,356 Speaker 1: to the edge of making a decision to punish it 166 00:10:08,436 --> 00:10:10,676 Speaker 1: on for shooting down the drone, and then decided to 167 00:10:10,716 --> 00:10:15,596 Speaker 1: walk back, and that opened the wedge between him and 168 00:10:16,196 --> 00:10:21,956 Speaker 1: his national security team, head of CIA, national Security Advisor, 169 00:10:22,116 --> 00:10:26,316 Speaker 1: Secretary of State, all of whom had favored America flexing 170 00:10:26,356 --> 00:10:29,076 Speaker 1: its muscles in response to the shooting down of the drone. 171 00:10:29,436 --> 00:10:34,116 Speaker 1: So I think the Iranians see benefit in enforcing Trump 172 00:10:34,676 --> 00:10:39,396 Speaker 1: to think seriously about something other than maximum pressure bringing 173 00:10:39,396 --> 00:10:41,916 Speaker 1: Iran to the table, which is actually what Iran needs. 174 00:10:41,996 --> 00:10:45,076 Speaker 1: If it is to countenance coming to the table, it 175 00:10:45,196 --> 00:10:49,996 Speaker 1: needs the United States to give it some economic benefits, 176 00:10:50,796 --> 00:10:54,116 Speaker 1: relief some of the economic pressure. So the Iranians could 177 00:10:54,116 --> 00:10:56,996 Speaker 1: even tell their own population that talks is not surrender, 178 00:10:57,116 --> 00:11:00,476 Speaker 1: but rather they're getting something in exchange. For showing up 179 00:11:00,516 --> 00:11:04,316 Speaker 1: for talks, and also that Trump would probably have to 180 00:11:04,516 --> 00:11:07,676 Speaker 1: change his the team that's going to talk to Iran, 181 00:11:07,796 --> 00:11:10,076 Speaker 1: and we already saw that he toyed with the idea 182 00:11:10,076 --> 00:11:12,956 Speaker 1: of Rand Paul playing the role of an envoy. Right. 183 00:11:13,076 --> 00:11:15,916 Speaker 1: I am skeptical that Trump will do can do all 184 00:11:15,956 --> 00:11:19,476 Speaker 1: of this in an election year, but the Iranians may 185 00:11:19,516 --> 00:11:23,356 Speaker 1: have at least bought themselves time until after November twenty 186 00:11:23,396 --> 00:11:27,076 Speaker 1: twenty to see where we go from there. I think 187 00:11:27,076 --> 00:11:28,996 Speaker 1: that's right. And you know what I would like to 188 00:11:28,996 --> 00:11:31,556 Speaker 1: do is try to break it into a simple part 189 00:11:31,596 --> 00:11:33,756 Speaker 1: and a complicated part. The simple part seems to me 190 00:11:33,836 --> 00:11:37,316 Speaker 1: that by shooting down the drone, the Iranians basically said 191 00:11:37,356 --> 00:11:40,596 Speaker 1: to Trump, we're calling your bluff. Are you actually prepared 192 00:11:40,636 --> 00:11:44,476 Speaker 1: to use force against us? And it worked because Trump 193 00:11:44,596 --> 00:11:46,956 Speaker 1: whimped out, you know. I mean, one might think that 194 00:11:46,996 --> 00:11:48,836 Speaker 1: was a good thing or a bad thing, but from 195 00:11:48,836 --> 00:11:52,516 Speaker 1: their perspective, Trump did not retaliate in the end. That 196 00:11:52,876 --> 00:11:56,236 Speaker 1: to me seems like the straightforward part. The complicated part, 197 00:11:56,276 --> 00:11:59,756 Speaker 1: and it's almost mind bendingly complicated, is so now you're 198 00:11:59,756 --> 00:12:03,116 Speaker 1: Iran and you know that although Trump's foreign policy advisors 199 00:12:03,156 --> 00:12:05,756 Speaker 1: are going to keep telling him that he should use 200 00:12:05,796 --> 00:12:09,636 Speaker 1: force against Iran, He's almost certainly not going to do it. 201 00:12:09,716 --> 00:12:14,756 Speaker 1: He doesn't want actual violence, but he does want to 202 00:12:14,836 --> 00:12:19,916 Speaker 1: stick with the weaking of Iran via economic sanctions, and 203 00:12:19,996 --> 00:12:22,916 Speaker 1: maybe that arrangement is one that he's perfectly happy to continue, 204 00:12:22,916 --> 00:12:26,116 Speaker 1: and maybe even his advisers are happy to continue it. 205 00:12:26,316 --> 00:12:30,236 Speaker 1: And from Iran's perspective, there's not much obvious that you 206 00:12:30,236 --> 00:12:32,676 Speaker 1: can do in response. And this is really the crux 207 00:12:32,716 --> 00:12:34,876 Speaker 1: of what I'm trying to understand from the Iranian perspective. 208 00:12:34,916 --> 00:12:37,996 Speaker 1: I mean, if they know that Trump is not likely 209 00:12:38,036 --> 00:12:41,236 Speaker 1: to compromise with them on the trade sanctions that are 210 00:12:41,316 --> 00:12:43,996 Speaker 1: hurting them so much, and they also know that he's 211 00:12:44,036 --> 00:12:47,916 Speaker 1: probably not going to use violence, what benefit do they 212 00:12:47,956 --> 00:12:50,756 Speaker 1: have in continuing to up the ante. They probably don't 213 00:12:50,796 --> 00:12:53,076 Speaker 1: have that much benefit. That they probably need to just 214 00:12:53,196 --> 00:12:55,676 Speaker 1: try to survive. Isn't that sort of the best strategy 215 00:12:55,716 --> 00:12:58,876 Speaker 1: available to them in that moment. Well, in the short run, 216 00:12:58,916 --> 00:13:01,076 Speaker 1: that's the case. But I don't think the Iranians can 217 00:13:01,116 --> 00:13:04,516 Speaker 1: sustain this situation for four years if Trump gets reelected, 218 00:13:05,196 --> 00:13:07,116 Speaker 1: So I think at some point in time they would 219 00:13:07,156 --> 00:13:09,876 Speaker 1: have to take the idea of talking to Trump seriously. 220 00:13:10,236 --> 00:13:11,796 Speaker 1: But what if he just doesn't want to talk. What 221 00:13:11,876 --> 00:13:14,796 Speaker 1: if he actually wants to say about talk about talking, 222 00:13:15,076 --> 00:13:17,876 Speaker 1: but Trump actually doesn't want to talk. I mean, one 223 00:13:17,876 --> 00:13:19,556 Speaker 1: thing that you have to keep in mind about Trump, 224 00:13:19,636 --> 00:13:21,476 Speaker 1: I think, and I'm sure the Iranians do think about this, 225 00:13:21,556 --> 00:13:24,356 Speaker 1: is he doesn't do foreign policy the way you and 226 00:13:24,396 --> 00:13:26,516 Speaker 1: I were brought up to think about foreign policy, where 227 00:13:26,556 --> 00:13:28,276 Speaker 1: you know, we were taught and we teach our students 228 00:13:28,716 --> 00:13:31,396 Speaker 1: choose your objective and then find the rational strategy to 229 00:13:31,396 --> 00:13:34,236 Speaker 1: pursue your objective. But Trump doesn't always do it that way. 230 00:13:34,316 --> 00:13:36,956 Speaker 1: Sometimes he just wants a perception to be created out there, say, 231 00:13:37,156 --> 00:13:41,996 Speaker 1: a perception of toughness aimed primarily to domestic audience. And 232 00:13:42,316 --> 00:13:44,116 Speaker 1: you know, his only constraint is he doesn't want to 233 00:13:44,116 --> 00:13:46,396 Speaker 1: be in a war. Then he does want to look tough, 234 00:13:46,436 --> 00:13:50,036 Speaker 1: and so in that sense, he's not very clearly pursuing 235 00:13:50,036 --> 00:13:52,116 Speaker 1: an objective. You know, you might give him a low 236 00:13:52,156 --> 00:13:54,156 Speaker 1: grade if he were teaching him in foreign policy, but 237 00:13:54,196 --> 00:13:55,956 Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. He's the president of United States and 238 00:13:56,036 --> 00:13:59,436 Speaker 1: this is the policy that he's pursuing. Well, that's exactly 239 00:13:59,476 --> 00:14:04,156 Speaker 1: why this becomes very dangerous because ultimately you have to say, Okay, 240 00:14:04,156 --> 00:14:07,676 Speaker 1: what are Iran's options if Trump doesn't want to talk 241 00:14:07,676 --> 00:14:09,716 Speaker 1: to them and he just wants to apply pressure. So 242 00:14:09,756 --> 00:14:12,556 Speaker 1: either they have to say voluntarily we're going to dismantle 243 00:14:12,636 --> 00:14:16,276 Speaker 1: the regime, which is not likely to happen, right, or 244 00:14:16,316 --> 00:14:20,236 Speaker 1: that they actually, you know, go down the path of 245 00:14:20,276 --> 00:14:24,236 Speaker 1: trying to force Trump to choose between war and diplomacy, 246 00:14:24,796 --> 00:14:27,276 Speaker 1: so they get it to a point that even hanging 247 00:14:27,276 --> 00:14:29,036 Speaker 1: tough would mean that he has to go to war 248 00:14:29,116 --> 00:14:32,996 Speaker 1: with Iran or that he has to talk to them. 249 00:14:33,036 --> 00:14:35,716 Speaker 1: So in a way, you could say, the tables get turned. 250 00:14:36,316 --> 00:14:39,196 Speaker 1: So it's Trump that was originally putting maximum pressure to 251 00:14:39,196 --> 00:14:41,756 Speaker 1: get them to the table, and it could become Iran 252 00:14:41,836 --> 00:14:44,956 Speaker 1: that's putting maximum pressure on Trump to come to the table. 253 00:14:45,676 --> 00:14:48,956 Speaker 1: And I think that's exactly why the way in which 254 00:14:48,996 --> 00:14:53,556 Speaker 1: Trump does foreign policy is so dangerous, because you know, 255 00:14:53,636 --> 00:14:59,196 Speaker 1: he plays with fire without actually wanting to use force 256 00:14:59,316 --> 00:15:01,276 Speaker 1: when it comes to it. I think the point that 257 00:15:01,316 --> 00:15:03,796 Speaker 1: you're making, Valley is is hugely significant, and I think 258 00:15:04,076 --> 00:15:06,716 Speaker 1: I don't think it's been made clearly enough in the 259 00:15:06,756 --> 00:15:09,636 Speaker 1: minds at least of most Americans, even those who followed 260 00:15:09,636 --> 00:15:12,796 Speaker 1: foreign policy pretty closely. So let me say it. Say 261 00:15:12,796 --> 00:15:14,036 Speaker 1: it back to you and see if you tell me 262 00:15:14,036 --> 00:15:16,316 Speaker 1: if I'm getting it right. What I hear you saying 263 00:15:16,556 --> 00:15:19,836 Speaker 1: is that by pursuing this policy, Trump hasn't really taken 264 00:15:19,836 --> 00:15:22,836 Speaker 1: into account that he may push Iron to the point 265 00:15:22,876 --> 00:15:26,036 Speaker 1: where it feels it has to provoke a war, it 266 00:15:26,076 --> 00:15:27,916 Speaker 1: has to come very very close to provoking a war, 267 00:15:28,036 --> 00:15:31,676 Speaker 1: maybe actually provoke a war, just in order to get 268 00:15:31,716 --> 00:15:35,276 Speaker 1: Trump to negotiate and there by to put the power 269 00:15:35,316 --> 00:15:38,196 Speaker 1: in there on their side. And I guess the question 270 00:15:38,236 --> 00:15:41,156 Speaker 1: I have for you there is is that plausible from 271 00:15:41,156 --> 00:15:43,756 Speaker 1: me Iron's perspective? I mean, wouldn't a war? Of course 272 00:15:43,756 --> 00:15:46,276 Speaker 1: they could inflict damage on American allies, They could inflict 273 00:15:46,436 --> 00:15:48,796 Speaker 1: damage on the United States, They could inflict damage on 274 00:15:49,196 --> 00:15:52,316 Speaker 1: Israel and on Saudi Arabia and on the UAE. But 275 00:15:52,436 --> 00:15:56,516 Speaker 1: could they survive a genuine war? And if they couldn't, 276 00:15:57,276 --> 00:16:00,396 Speaker 1: then how much are they going to be willing to 277 00:16:00,476 --> 00:16:06,716 Speaker 1: risk going down that path? Well, you know, the dilemma 278 00:16:06,836 --> 00:16:09,636 Speaker 1: that Trump has created is that if you give Iran 279 00:16:10,036 --> 00:16:12,276 Speaker 1: only bad choices, they're going to pick one of the 280 00:16:12,356 --> 00:16:16,956 Speaker 1: bad choices. I mean, you know, I don't see this 281 00:16:17,036 --> 00:16:21,316 Speaker 1: region voluntarily dismantling. And now it's sort of a body 282 00:16:21,316 --> 00:16:23,956 Speaker 1: into the idea that you could force Trump to blink, 283 00:16:24,316 --> 00:16:26,556 Speaker 1: so they can go down that path of trying to 284 00:16:26,956 --> 00:16:30,116 Speaker 1: have him blink again and again, and they may make 285 00:16:30,156 --> 00:16:32,916 Speaker 1: a mistake or go one step too far and actually 286 00:16:33,036 --> 00:16:35,436 Speaker 1: end up getting a war. I think, you know, the 287 00:16:35,476 --> 00:16:38,116 Speaker 1: irony here is that neither the United States, or at 288 00:16:38,156 --> 00:16:42,156 Speaker 1: least neither Trump nor Iran want war right but there 289 00:16:42,276 --> 00:16:45,596 Speaker 1: is no room right now for anything else. You know, 290 00:16:45,636 --> 00:16:48,756 Speaker 1: as the Trump says the pathway to talks are there, 291 00:16:48,836 --> 00:16:53,956 Speaker 1: but that's not really the case. And therefore, you know, 292 00:16:53,996 --> 00:16:56,676 Speaker 1: the sort of the Iranians have very few options left 293 00:16:56,716 --> 00:17:01,676 Speaker 1: before them other than basically sitting and watching their country 294 00:17:01,716 --> 00:17:06,036 Speaker 1: come apart. And there are those within Iran's hardliners who 295 00:17:06,116 --> 00:17:07,716 Speaker 1: argued that, look, if we're going to end up in 296 00:17:07,716 --> 00:17:09,836 Speaker 1: a war with the United States, it's better we do 297 00:17:09,876 --> 00:17:12,236 Speaker 1: it now when we're still strong, than do it twenty 298 00:17:12,316 --> 00:17:14,676 Speaker 1: years from now. Has happened with Saddam, where nothing is 299 00:17:14,756 --> 00:17:18,676 Speaker 1: left of our institutions. And I think, you know, if 300 00:17:18,716 --> 00:17:22,676 Speaker 1: Trump gets reelected, the Iranians have to look at four 301 00:17:22,796 --> 00:17:26,356 Speaker 1: more years of the same policy, and then they have 302 00:17:26,436 --> 00:17:29,236 Speaker 1: to sort of calculate can they survive four more years 303 00:17:29,276 --> 00:17:34,196 Speaker 1: of the same thing, where every six months Trump keeps escalating, 304 00:17:35,196 --> 00:17:38,396 Speaker 1: or are they going to really force, you know, try 305 00:17:38,436 --> 00:17:41,756 Speaker 1: to force their way out of this situation. Either by 306 00:17:41,876 --> 00:17:44,916 Speaker 1: there are two ways of doing it. They audaciously give 307 00:17:44,996 --> 00:17:48,436 Speaker 1: him an offer of talks that that he can't refuse 308 00:17:49,756 --> 00:17:52,356 Speaker 1: and I don't see that happening under this supreme leader. 309 00:17:53,316 --> 00:17:56,116 Speaker 1: Or they have to force Trump to really think about 310 00:17:56,156 --> 00:17:59,036 Speaker 1: the fact that the danger of war is imminent and 311 00:17:59,076 --> 00:18:02,356 Speaker 1: he needs to find a way out. So I want 312 00:18:02,396 --> 00:18:05,996 Speaker 1: to ask about what this means for moderates in Iran. 313 00:18:06,036 --> 00:18:09,796 Speaker 1: I mean, you describe the position that the hardliners take, namely, 314 00:18:09,996 --> 00:18:13,076 Speaker 1: betterify the war now when we have real leverage, then 315 00:18:13,156 --> 00:18:16,276 Speaker 1: at some later time. If you're an Iranian moderate and 316 00:18:16,276 --> 00:18:21,476 Speaker 1: you supported the deal with Obama and you thought that 317 00:18:21,556 --> 00:18:24,436 Speaker 1: Rohanni had done a good job by brokering that deal, 318 00:18:25,356 --> 00:18:27,316 Speaker 1: now do you have a leg to stand on. I mean, 319 00:18:27,356 --> 00:18:30,836 Speaker 1: I have moderates in Iran just been completely discredited by 320 00:18:30,876 --> 00:18:35,116 Speaker 1: the rise of the Trump policy. Yes, I think that's 321 00:18:35,156 --> 00:18:38,876 Speaker 1: one of the that's one of the tragedies of Trump's 322 00:18:38,876 --> 00:18:42,556 Speaker 1: policy towards Iran. So all the moderates have either been 323 00:18:43,196 --> 00:18:47,796 Speaker 1: marginalized or have been radicalized. Even the moderates are trying 324 00:18:47,836 --> 00:18:53,956 Speaker 1: to distance themselves from the nuclear deal, and in fact, 325 00:18:54,076 --> 00:18:57,916 Speaker 1: even in the past year, there was hope that still 326 00:18:57,956 --> 00:19:01,556 Speaker 1: the Moderates could sustain themselves if Europe actually had stood 327 00:19:01,596 --> 00:19:04,716 Speaker 1: up to Trump and tried to protect doing business with 328 00:19:04,796 --> 00:19:09,036 Speaker 1: Iran even at the risk of sanctions. And Europe folded completely. 329 00:19:09,876 --> 00:19:13,196 Speaker 1: There was no appetite in Europe in any way to 330 00:19:13,316 --> 00:19:18,156 Speaker 1: do something through central banks or governments and actually do 331 00:19:18,316 --> 00:19:20,956 Speaker 1: business with Iran in a way that would keep the 332 00:19:21,236 --> 00:19:28,196 Speaker 1: nuclear deal genuinely alive, so that the moderates really don't 333 00:19:28,196 --> 00:19:32,156 Speaker 1: have anything to offer. And I think some presidential elections, 334 00:19:32,156 --> 00:19:38,196 Speaker 1: parliamentary elections, they're going to be completely sidelines. And in 335 00:19:38,236 --> 00:19:42,316 Speaker 1: a way, in an ironic way, Trump has achieved regime 336 00:19:42,396 --> 00:19:45,716 Speaker 1: change in Iran, except the wrong regime change. He's handed 337 00:19:45,716 --> 00:19:50,236 Speaker 1: Iran to militaristic hardliners who would be now very difficult 338 00:19:50,236 --> 00:19:53,596 Speaker 1: to dislodge going forward. I wanted to ask about the 339 00:19:53,636 --> 00:19:57,156 Speaker 1: Europeans and why they did fold so immediately and completely. 340 00:19:57,196 --> 00:20:00,916 Speaker 1: You know, when when the obaministration was putting the finishing 341 00:20:00,956 --> 00:20:04,076 Speaker 1: touches on the Iran Deal, one of the structures that 342 00:20:04,596 --> 00:20:08,516 Speaker 1: seemed to be actually desirable was that even if the 343 00:20:08,636 --> 00:20:11,196 Speaker 1: United Dates were to back out of the deal in 344 00:20:11,196 --> 00:20:15,396 Speaker 1: a future administration, it was still nominally up to Europe 345 00:20:15,836 --> 00:20:18,276 Speaker 1: to continue to make its own judgment about whether Iran 346 00:20:18,316 --> 00:20:20,596 Speaker 1: had renected on the deal and therefore to continue trade. 347 00:20:21,036 --> 00:20:23,276 Speaker 1: And the theory at the time many people believe this, 348 00:20:23,316 --> 00:20:25,276 Speaker 1: I certainly thought it at the time was that this 349 00:20:25,356 --> 00:20:28,156 Speaker 1: was a good failsafe measure in the deal that even 350 00:20:28,156 --> 00:20:29,956 Speaker 1: if the United States backed out, it wouldn't really matter 351 00:20:29,996 --> 00:20:32,476 Speaker 1: the United States had backed out because Iran could still 352 00:20:32,476 --> 00:20:35,076 Speaker 1: do business with Europeans. But as you noted, the Trump 353 00:20:35,076 --> 00:20:39,236 Speaker 1: administration applied some pressure and the Europeans completely backed down. 354 00:20:39,836 --> 00:20:42,836 Speaker 1: Why is that just because they have so many of 355 00:20:42,836 --> 00:20:44,516 Speaker 1: their own worries about Trump that they don't want to 356 00:20:44,516 --> 00:20:47,236 Speaker 1: annoy him about Iran or is it based on any 357 00:20:47,276 --> 00:20:51,876 Speaker 1: actual attitude towards Iran. I think they may hide behind 358 00:20:51,956 --> 00:20:55,756 Speaker 1: attitude towards Iran, like you know, because Iran has missiles 359 00:20:55,796 --> 00:20:57,956 Speaker 1: or his bola, this makes it difficult for us to 360 00:20:58,596 --> 00:21:01,156 Speaker 1: abide by the nuclear deal. But but the reality of 361 00:21:01,156 --> 00:21:05,396 Speaker 1: it is that Trump showed with Europe that the emperor 362 00:21:05,476 --> 00:21:08,676 Speaker 1: has no clothes, you know, as the Europeans have no 363 00:21:08,756 --> 00:21:11,356 Speaker 1: will of their own and there are not really independent 364 00:21:11,436 --> 00:21:15,796 Speaker 1: international actors. That Europe, for all practical purposes, is a 365 00:21:15,916 --> 00:21:20,076 Speaker 1: vestige of American foreign policy, even though Trump looks down 366 00:21:20,116 --> 00:21:24,236 Speaker 1: on Europe and likes to weaken Europe, but in reality 367 00:21:24,276 --> 00:21:28,556 Speaker 1: has also shown that Europeans really are not independent of 368 00:21:28,636 --> 00:21:31,636 Speaker 1: US foreign policy. Now, this has much broader implications. It's 369 00:21:31,636 --> 00:21:34,796 Speaker 1: not about Iran. If you're China, if you're Russia, if 370 00:21:34,796 --> 00:21:38,276 Speaker 1: you're any other country around the world sitting and watching this, 371 00:21:39,476 --> 00:21:42,476 Speaker 1: you basically come to the same conclusion that you know, 372 00:21:42,556 --> 00:21:46,356 Speaker 1: if there is an international deal that the Europeans step 373 00:21:46,436 --> 00:21:49,116 Speaker 1: in and say, well, you're we're the brokers, as a 374 00:21:49,156 --> 00:21:55,036 Speaker 1: big unit in international affairs, as protectors of rule of law, multilateralism. 375 00:21:55,196 --> 00:21:58,116 Speaker 1: We're going to put our name to this deal. It's meaningless. 376 00:21:59,036 --> 00:22:01,316 Speaker 1: And one of the outcomes of this entire thing is 377 00:22:01,796 --> 00:22:06,956 Speaker 1: that Trump has basically shredded European legitimacy and shown Europe 378 00:22:06,996 --> 00:22:09,956 Speaker 1: to be vassals of the United States. And that has 379 00:22:10,036 --> 00:22:13,796 Speaker 1: broad implications if you would, for the great power rivalry 380 00:22:13,836 --> 00:22:19,436 Speaker 1: that is likely to unfold going forward between Russia, China, 381 00:22:19,516 --> 00:22:22,436 Speaker 1: and the United States. And again, I think a folly 382 00:22:22,476 --> 00:22:27,276 Speaker 1: of Trump's foreign policy is that if that's really the case, 383 00:22:27,676 --> 00:22:31,196 Speaker 1: if it's really the big game of big power is 384 00:22:31,236 --> 00:22:35,236 Speaker 1: between you and China and Russia, it always would have 385 00:22:35,276 --> 00:22:38,116 Speaker 1: benefited the United States to have Europe as a foil, 386 00:22:38,196 --> 00:22:41,076 Speaker 1: as a fourth partner there that looks like, you know, 387 00:22:41,236 --> 00:22:43,796 Speaker 1: is an independent actor, and then you know, would benefit 388 00:22:43,876 --> 00:22:50,116 Speaker 1: the United States interests. By completely shredding Europe's credibility, Trump 389 00:22:50,116 --> 00:22:53,356 Speaker 1: has ended up i think, weekend in America's hand internationally 390 00:22:53,396 --> 00:22:57,356 Speaker 1: because the Europeans won't matter to the great power rivalry anymore. Well, 391 00:22:57,556 --> 00:22:59,316 Speaker 1: I wanted to also ask you about a really interesting 392 00:22:59,356 --> 00:23:02,036 Speaker 1: piece that you wrote where you argued in The Atlantic 393 00:23:02,556 --> 00:23:07,316 Speaker 1: that Trump's Iran policy is a gift to China. That's 394 00:23:07,356 --> 00:23:10,276 Speaker 1: not intuitive at all, and you make a pretty complex 395 00:23:10,476 --> 00:23:12,316 Speaker 1: and interesting argument. So I wonder if you would just 396 00:23:12,316 --> 00:23:15,636 Speaker 1: describe that argument. Well, you know, we we often when 397 00:23:15,636 --> 00:23:18,476 Speaker 1: we think about China and rivalry with China, we only 398 00:23:18,516 --> 00:23:23,116 Speaker 1: think about East Asia in the vestige of America's old 399 00:23:23,156 --> 00:23:26,116 Speaker 1: thinking that we think of China as a pacific power. 400 00:23:26,676 --> 00:23:31,836 Speaker 1: China is increasingly a continental power. Its interests are moving westwards. 401 00:23:32,596 --> 00:23:37,476 Speaker 1: It's even population and industries are moving westwards. And the 402 00:23:37,636 --> 00:23:41,036 Speaker 1: entire idea of the new sale crowd that Shishimping has 403 00:23:41,036 --> 00:23:43,276 Speaker 1: put on the table, or the Belt and Road as 404 00:23:43,276 --> 00:23:46,876 Speaker 1: it's more popularly known, is the one that would connect 405 00:23:47,036 --> 00:23:51,476 Speaker 1: Asia to Africa and then to Europe. I mean, the 406 00:23:51,556 --> 00:23:55,996 Speaker 1: Chinese have a conception of Eurasia, which is essentially from 407 00:23:56,516 --> 00:23:59,716 Speaker 1: eastern China all the way to Ireland, as being a 408 00:24:00,276 --> 00:24:03,156 Speaker 1: zone of influence, economic influence for the Chinese, and the 409 00:24:03,196 --> 00:24:06,596 Speaker 1: Middle East and Iran are big pieces in the middle 410 00:24:06,636 --> 00:24:09,476 Speaker 1: of this, and the Chinese have been pushing into the 411 00:24:09,516 --> 00:24:14,516 Speaker 1: Middle East, into Saudi Arabia, into UAE, into Pakistan, into Afghanistan, 412 00:24:14,716 --> 00:24:18,516 Speaker 1: and into Iran in a big way. And the United 413 00:24:18,596 --> 00:24:22,556 Speaker 1: States sort of conducts policy with Iran and the Middle 414 00:24:22,556 --> 00:24:24,916 Speaker 1: East as if we are still in the Bush era? 415 00:24:25,516 --> 00:24:29,356 Speaker 1: What is the United States is the only outside actor 416 00:24:29,476 --> 00:24:33,556 Speaker 1: that matters, and increasingly when it comes to diplomacy, nowadays, 417 00:24:33,636 --> 00:24:36,356 Speaker 1: Russians are the ones that matter. And when it comes 418 00:24:36,356 --> 00:24:40,996 Speaker 1: to economics, it's the Chinese that matter. And ultimately, if 419 00:24:41,236 --> 00:24:43,636 Speaker 1: the United States going to contain China, it would have 420 00:24:43,676 --> 00:24:48,196 Speaker 1: to contain it globally, not just with trade or in 421 00:24:47,596 --> 00:24:51,356 Speaker 1: the eastern part of China in the Pacific. It has 422 00:24:51,396 --> 00:24:54,516 Speaker 1: to think about how do you contain China's influenced in 423 00:24:54,556 --> 00:24:56,956 Speaker 1: the Middle East, and how do you make sure that 424 00:24:57,076 --> 00:25:01,356 Speaker 1: the Chinese don't become or the Iranians don't become essentially 425 00:25:01,676 --> 00:25:05,556 Speaker 1: an extension of China's foreign policy and China's economic policy, 426 00:25:05,916 --> 00:25:09,876 Speaker 1: and isolation of Iran from the West essentially eventually turn 427 00:25:09,956 --> 00:25:13,036 Speaker 1: irund in the direction of China. The Chinese will end 428 00:25:13,116 --> 00:25:17,436 Speaker 1: up developing Iran's gas fields one now that total left, 429 00:25:17,476 --> 00:25:22,276 Speaker 1: they will end up developing Iran's infrastructure, Iran's oil fields. 430 00:25:22,316 --> 00:25:25,316 Speaker 1: And even now, the Chinese are perhaps the only ones 431 00:25:25,356 --> 00:25:29,036 Speaker 1: that are continuing to buy Irani aoid. You know, you're 432 00:25:29,036 --> 00:25:32,676 Speaker 1: making decisions about Iran without thinking about the broader ramifications 433 00:25:32,676 --> 00:25:36,276 Speaker 1: of what this means for the bigger fight against China. 434 00:25:36,356 --> 00:25:38,476 Speaker 1: And I think another thing that we're not paying attention 435 00:25:38,556 --> 00:25:42,996 Speaker 1: to is that as we're isolating Iran, the Russians are 436 00:25:43,116 --> 00:25:47,276 Speaker 1: deepening their strategic partnership with Iran. Yeah, and that means 437 00:25:47,316 --> 00:25:51,476 Speaker 1: that Iran and Russia in Syria have built a deep 438 00:25:51,556 --> 00:25:57,556 Speaker 1: state to deep state relationship, intelligence, security, military relationship. They 439 00:25:57,596 --> 00:26:01,476 Speaker 1: have successfully prosecuted a war jointly. We may think, oh, 440 00:26:01,516 --> 00:26:03,756 Speaker 1: they don't like each other, they don't agree their interests 441 00:26:03,756 --> 00:26:07,196 Speaker 1: are different. That is, looking at the glass as half 442 00:26:07,196 --> 00:26:09,876 Speaker 1: empty half full. Sight of it it is now you 443 00:26:09,956 --> 00:26:15,276 Speaker 1: have close to a decade of very successful military intelligence 444 00:26:15,316 --> 00:26:22,516 Speaker 1: cooperation that extends to now increasingly meetings between Revolutionary Guard 445 00:26:22,636 --> 00:26:28,556 Speaker 1: commanders and Russian FSB and military commanders, coordination of policy 446 00:26:28,596 --> 00:26:32,436 Speaker 1: on Afghanistan, for instance, between Iran and Russia, coordination of 447 00:26:32,516 --> 00:26:37,236 Speaker 1: policy on Syria. And Iran, because it no longer has 448 00:26:37,356 --> 00:26:41,196 Speaker 1: absolutely any relationship with the United States, it's kind of 449 00:26:41,556 --> 00:26:45,876 Speaker 1: a potential future base for Russia. I mean, you could 450 00:26:45,876 --> 00:26:48,316 Speaker 1: see the Russians may think that ten years from now 451 00:26:48,636 --> 00:26:51,996 Speaker 1: they may be selling Iran advanced military aircraft s, four 452 00:26:52,076 --> 00:26:55,396 Speaker 1: hundred missiles of the kind that's just sold Turkey. They 453 00:26:55,436 --> 00:26:59,156 Speaker 1: may get basis in Iran. And the United States is 454 00:26:59,156 --> 00:27:04,116 Speaker 1: not only handing over Iran to China economically and weakening 455 00:27:04,676 --> 00:27:07,876 Speaker 1: China's competitors in Asia by cutting them out of Iran, 456 00:27:08,236 --> 00:27:11,476 Speaker 1: but it's actually ending Iran over to Russia as well. 457 00:27:11,996 --> 00:27:15,436 Speaker 1: And so the Russians don't want war, but the Russians 458 00:27:15,436 --> 00:27:18,196 Speaker 1: are very happy to see Iran alienated from the West 459 00:27:18,196 --> 00:27:20,276 Speaker 1: because in the future the only place Iran will have 460 00:27:20,356 --> 00:27:23,636 Speaker 1: to go will be to Russia. Well, I think that's 461 00:27:23,676 --> 00:27:26,356 Speaker 1: a good summary really of your analysis, Valley. I mean 462 00:27:26,876 --> 00:27:33,316 Speaker 1: Trump's approached generally by isolating and alienating Iran first, gives 463 00:27:33,316 --> 00:27:36,556 Speaker 1: Iranians an incentive to up the ante and look to war, 464 00:27:36,996 --> 00:27:39,756 Speaker 1: and that might involve a situation where we actually get 465 00:27:39,756 --> 00:27:42,956 Speaker 1: into a war with Iran. As a fallback to that, 466 00:27:43,316 --> 00:27:48,636 Speaker 1: we're pushing Iran into China's arms economically and into Russia's 467 00:27:48,716 --> 00:27:52,356 Speaker 1: arms militarily. If there's a more thoroughgoing condemnation of a 468 00:27:52,396 --> 00:27:55,716 Speaker 1: foreign policy than that, I can't really imagine it. So 469 00:27:56,356 --> 00:27:59,436 Speaker 1: I'm very grateful to you for that very penetrating and 470 00:27:59,716 --> 00:28:02,316 Speaker 1: thoughtful analysis. I think it's a wake up call to 471 00:28:02,436 --> 00:28:06,916 Speaker 1: think about how this relationship is developing. And if Trump 472 00:28:07,036 --> 00:28:09,036 Speaker 1: is reelected, it seems as though there's a high problem 473 00:28:09,356 --> 00:28:11,436 Speaker 1: that that's the direction which which things will go. I 474 00:28:11,436 --> 00:28:14,076 Speaker 1: think it's hard to see a likely mid course correction 475 00:28:14,116 --> 00:28:16,476 Speaker 1: from Trump on those things. So here, again, as on 476 00:28:16,556 --> 00:28:19,996 Speaker 1: many other issues, so much depends on what happens in 477 00:28:19,996 --> 00:28:23,436 Speaker 1: our next election exactly. Let's hope for the best. Let's 478 00:28:23,476 --> 00:28:25,596 Speaker 1: hope for the best. Thank you so much for I 479 00:28:25,636 --> 00:28:28,236 Speaker 1: really appreciate your time and your insight. Thank you as 480 00:28:28,276 --> 00:28:45,516 Speaker 1: good being with you since I talked to Valinasser. John 481 00:28:45,556 --> 00:28:49,236 Speaker 1: Bolton has actually left his post as National Security Advisor, 482 00:28:49,956 --> 00:28:53,276 Speaker 1: which leads me to our Sound of the Week. Bolton 483 00:28:53,436 --> 00:28:55,996 Speaker 1: was on the guidance to be here, so we're YouTube 484 00:28:56,116 --> 00:28:59,916 Speaker 1: blindsided by what occurred today that he's no longer with 485 00:29:00,036 --> 00:29:02,756 Speaker 1: the administration. Was it news to you today because last 486 00:29:02,836 --> 00:29:08,156 Speaker 1: night you were. I'm never surprised that Secretary of State 487 00:29:08,236 --> 00:29:11,236 Speaker 1: Mike Pompeo not a close friend of the outgoing National 488 00:29:11,316 --> 00:29:14,916 Speaker 1: Security Advisor, answering questions from reporters at a press conference 489 00:29:14,916 --> 00:29:18,716 Speaker 1: he held with Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchen on Tuesday, right 490 00:29:18,796 --> 00:29:22,276 Speaker 1: after John Bulton's departure was made public. Now it is 491 00:29:22,396 --> 00:29:25,236 Speaker 1: unclear whether Bolton resigned or was fired. It depends on 492 00:29:25,316 --> 00:29:28,676 Speaker 1: who you believe. Trump tweeted that he had fired Bolton. 493 00:29:28,956 --> 00:29:33,756 Speaker 1: Bolton tweeted that he had offered his resignation voluntarily either way, 494 00:29:34,036 --> 00:29:37,276 Speaker 1: and honestly, who really cares. Here are my thoughts on 495 00:29:37,316 --> 00:29:40,916 Speaker 1: what the departure means for US foreign policy at large. 496 00:29:42,076 --> 00:29:44,956 Speaker 1: The hiring of John Bolton was, from the beginning a 497 00:29:45,076 --> 00:29:48,836 Speaker 1: very strange thing for Donald Trump to have done. Donald 498 00:29:48,836 --> 00:29:52,156 Speaker 1: Trump did not run as a neo conservative, the kind 499 00:29:52,196 --> 00:29:55,356 Speaker 1: of politician who thinks the United States should promote global 500 00:29:55,436 --> 00:30:00,076 Speaker 1: interests in democracy and human rights by force if necessary. Instead, 501 00:30:00,196 --> 00:30:02,916 Speaker 1: he ran as a kind of isolationist and as someone 502 00:30:02,916 --> 00:30:05,876 Speaker 1: who said that he liked to do deals economically, not 503 00:30:05,956 --> 00:30:09,956 Speaker 1: to fight wars. Indeed, since becoming president, Donald Trump has 504 00:30:09,956 --> 00:30:15,116 Speaker 1: been notably cautious about using force in almost any place 505 00:30:15,316 --> 00:30:19,236 Speaker 1: around the globe, including under circumstances when most prior presidents, 506 00:30:19,316 --> 00:30:23,716 Speaker 1: Republican and Democratic alike, probably would have at least fired 507 00:30:23,756 --> 00:30:28,276 Speaker 1: off some missiles. So it was very, very surprising when 508 00:30:28,276 --> 00:30:31,556 Speaker 1: he hired in John Bolton, a national security advisor who 509 00:30:31,636 --> 00:30:35,236 Speaker 1: was well known within the George W. Bush administration, not 510 00:30:35,316 --> 00:30:37,956 Speaker 1: to mention the earlier administrations he worked for as being 511 00:30:38,276 --> 00:30:41,916 Speaker 1: the most pro intervention, the most shoot him up, the 512 00:30:41,956 --> 00:30:47,396 Speaker 1: most aggressive guy in the entire administration. Sure, Trump had 513 00:30:47,436 --> 00:30:50,436 Speaker 1: heard Bolton talking tough on Fox News, but the kind 514 00:30:50,476 --> 00:30:52,876 Speaker 1: of tough talking that Bolton was doing was not an 515 00:30:52,876 --> 00:30:55,836 Speaker 1: obvious fit for the policies that Trump was trying to adopt. 516 00:30:56,756 --> 00:31:00,636 Speaker 1: The consequence of having a national security advisor whose policy 517 00:31:00,636 --> 00:31:04,316 Speaker 1: approach was so different from the presidents was not what 518 00:31:04,476 --> 00:31:08,596 Speaker 1: you might imagine for meeting dars Kern's Goodwin's team of rivals. 519 00:31:09,196 --> 00:31:12,036 Speaker 1: This was not Donald Trump as Abraham Lincoln, trying to 520 00:31:12,076 --> 00:31:15,396 Speaker 1: balance the impulses that he himself might have against different 521 00:31:15,436 --> 00:31:19,116 Speaker 1: impulses of thoughtful members of his advisory group, so that 522 00:31:19,156 --> 00:31:22,076 Speaker 1: they would balance each other. Hear different opinions and read 523 00:31:22,156 --> 00:31:25,876 Speaker 1: some moderate middle To the contrary, Trump just continued to 524 00:31:25,956 --> 00:31:29,236 Speaker 1: run foreign policy his own way, while Bolton made every 525 00:31:29,276 --> 00:31:33,636 Speaker 1: effort to rein him in. The President would meet with 526 00:31:33,716 --> 00:31:37,396 Speaker 1: the president of North Korea, and John Bolton would try 527 00:31:37,396 --> 00:31:40,396 Speaker 1: to undercut the meeting. At one moment. In order for 528 00:31:40,396 --> 00:31:43,436 Speaker 1: Trump to actually cross into North Korea, Bolton had to 529 00:31:43,476 --> 00:31:46,236 Speaker 1: be sent off on a mission to Mongolia. I mean, 530 00:31:46,236 --> 00:31:49,396 Speaker 1: you can't make this stuff up. The effect of this, 531 00:31:49,796 --> 00:31:52,436 Speaker 1: and you heard this in my conversation with Bali, is 532 00:31:52,436 --> 00:31:54,836 Speaker 1: that countries around the world are trying to figure out 533 00:31:55,116 --> 00:31:57,916 Speaker 1: what is the policy of the United States under circumstances 534 00:31:57,956 --> 00:32:00,556 Speaker 1: when the President and the National Security Advisor are aiming 535 00:32:00,596 --> 00:32:05,676 Speaker 1: in what appeared to be almost exactly opposite directions. A 536 00:32:05,836 --> 00:32:09,036 Speaker 1: president who no longer is burdened by a national secure 537 00:32:09,276 --> 00:32:13,796 Speaker 1: advisor who is contradicting him would ordinarily be a good thing. 538 00:32:14,356 --> 00:32:16,836 Speaker 1: It would ordinarily mean that the president would not have 539 00:32:16,876 --> 00:32:20,036 Speaker 1: to spend his time arguing with his chief foreign policy adviser. 540 00:32:20,436 --> 00:32:23,556 Speaker 1: It would also ordinarily mean that other countries trying to 541 00:32:23,596 --> 00:32:26,276 Speaker 1: suss out what US policy is would not have to 542 00:32:26,276 --> 00:32:30,756 Speaker 1: spend their time on the palace intrigue of conflict and contradiction. 543 00:32:31,716 --> 00:32:35,316 Speaker 1: The question is, when the president is Donald Trump, does 544 00:32:35,396 --> 00:32:38,036 Speaker 1: greater clarity of his foreign policy make us think the 545 00:32:38,116 --> 00:32:40,916 Speaker 1: United States will be better off than it was otherwise. 546 00:32:41,876 --> 00:32:44,196 Speaker 1: To be sure, I am not saying that it would 547 00:32:44,196 --> 00:32:46,356 Speaker 1: have been better if John Bolton had gotten his way. 548 00:32:46,796 --> 00:32:50,356 Speaker 1: His aggressive policies have a reasonable probability of getting the 549 00:32:50,436 --> 00:32:54,156 Speaker 1: United States into violent confrontations that it frankly does not need, 550 00:32:54,196 --> 00:32:56,956 Speaker 1: at least not in my view. So it's not really 551 00:32:56,956 --> 00:33:00,036 Speaker 1: a question of whether Bolton's policies would have been better 552 00:33:00,076 --> 00:33:03,116 Speaker 1: than Trump's in every instance. Rather, it's a question of 553 00:33:03,116 --> 00:33:06,036 Speaker 1: whether Trump is a better president and I use those 554 00:33:06,076 --> 00:33:09,596 Speaker 1: words in scare quotes when he's being constrained and limited 555 00:33:09,716 --> 00:33:12,716 Speaker 1: by anyone who disagrees with him, then he is. When 556 00:33:12,716 --> 00:33:16,996 Speaker 1: he's following his own impulses, whatever those may be. My 557 00:33:17,076 --> 00:33:20,316 Speaker 1: own view is that despite the enormous costs of having 558 00:33:20,356 --> 00:33:23,236 Speaker 1: a national security advisor and a president whose views were 559 00:33:23,236 --> 00:33:27,556 Speaker 1: so fundamentally opposed, there was an accidental side benefit. And 560 00:33:27,596 --> 00:33:30,476 Speaker 1: the accidental side benefit was that a president whose national 561 00:33:30,476 --> 00:33:34,036 Speaker 1: security advisor disagree with him couldn't do much of anything. 562 00:33:34,476 --> 00:33:36,916 Speaker 1: And when it comes to Donald Trump and foreign policy, 563 00:33:37,716 --> 00:33:40,436 Speaker 1: the best outcome with the world can hope for, the 564 00:33:40,436 --> 00:33:42,596 Speaker 1: best outcome the United States can hope for is that 565 00:33:42,636 --> 00:33:46,236 Speaker 1: we do no harm. The less the president can do, 566 00:33:46,676 --> 00:33:49,796 Speaker 1: the fewer agreements he can reach, the fewer wars he 567 00:33:49,836 --> 00:33:53,196 Speaker 1: can enter. The less the president can do, the safer 568 00:33:53,436 --> 00:33:56,436 Speaker 1: we all are. And I don't mean just we Americans, 569 00:33:56,596 --> 00:33:59,996 Speaker 1: I mean we people who live in the world. So 570 00:34:00,116 --> 00:34:01,876 Speaker 1: when I say that it's a bit of a sad 571 00:34:01,916 --> 00:34:04,436 Speaker 1: thing that John Bolton is no longer the National Security Advisor, 572 00:34:04,756 --> 00:34:07,116 Speaker 1: believe me, I'm not saying a single good thing about 573 00:34:07,196 --> 00:34:10,436 Speaker 1: John Bolton. What I'm saying is that if Trump were 574 00:34:10,596 --> 00:34:14,876 Speaker 1: to manage his own foreign policy unconstrained and unlimited, the 575 00:34:15,116 --> 00:34:21,436 Speaker 1: random walk of his impulses and approaches could potentially endanger everybody. 576 00:34:21,796 --> 00:34:24,436 Speaker 1: Departure of John Bolton is not the kind of event 577 00:34:24,716 --> 00:34:27,116 Speaker 1: that makes you weep or cry for the man who's 578 00:34:27,156 --> 00:34:29,956 Speaker 1: left his job. On the other hand, it does make 579 00:34:30,036 --> 00:34:32,556 Speaker 1: me just a little bit more nervous for what's going 580 00:34:32,596 --> 00:34:38,916 Speaker 1: on with foreign policy in the United States. Deep Background 581 00:34:38,996 --> 00:34:41,596 Speaker 1: is brought to you by Pushkin Industries. Our producer is 582 00:34:41,676 --> 00:34:45,596 Speaker 1: Lydia Geancott, with engineering by Jason Gambrell and Jason Rostkowski. 583 00:34:45,876 --> 00:34:48,956 Speaker 1: Our showrunner is Sophie mckibbon. Our theme music is composed 584 00:34:48,996 --> 00:34:52,836 Speaker 1: by Luis GERA special thanks to the Pushkin Brass, Malcolm Gladwell, 585 00:34:52,996 --> 00:34:56,156 Speaker 1: Jacob Weisberg, and Mia Loebell. I'm Noah Feldman. You can 586 00:34:56,196 --> 00:34:59,316 Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter at Noah R. Feldman. This is 587 00:34:59,396 --> 00:35:00,196 Speaker 1: Deep Background.