1 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 1: Welcome to Stuff to Blow Your Mind from how Stuff 2 00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:14,120 Speaker 1: Works dot Com. Hey you, wasn't it stuff to blow 3 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:16,080 Speaker 1: your mind? My name is Robert Lamb and I am 4 00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:19,840 Speaker 1: Christian Sega. You know, I think we live all of 5 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:23,440 Speaker 1: our lives and the knowledge and or in the denial 6 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 1: of imperments. We know that we're not going to live forever. 7 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:29,319 Speaker 1: That people we love, the people we hate, most of 8 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 1: the things we hold dear will simply fade away. And 9 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 1: at the same time we can be so very resistant 10 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:38,199 Speaker 1: to change and the idea of change, we wind up 11 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 1: taking certain things for granted, even the very planet that 12 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: we live on. To invoke the Goldilocks principle, our planet 13 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,800 Speaker 1: is just right for life. We've got the right ingredients, 14 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 1: the right crusts, the right temperature, the right moon, the 15 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 1: right star, the right core, the just the right celestial neighbors. 16 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 1: We've largely lucked out when it comes to near Earth 17 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: objects in five major distinction events. Later here we are 18 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:05,959 Speaker 1: thriving within and in some cases beyond the portion of 19 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:09,399 Speaker 1: the Earth's atmosphere and climate that we evolve to thrive in. 20 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:12,559 Speaker 1: But when will it all end? When will this place 21 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: become uninhabitable to us? Some of the threats are so 22 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 1: distant that they're almost impossible to really weigh. Will we 23 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:23,680 Speaker 1: even be us when our species encounters them? Others, however, 24 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 1: are far more pressing. Yeah, So I'm going to try 25 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 1: to give you all an example. I'm gonna take this 26 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 1: from the personal to the macro. Okay, yesterday I had 27 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:36,960 Speaker 1: to go to a retirement planner. I didn't have to. 28 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 1: I chose to um a human or a website. It 29 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 1: was a huge I did the website first, and then 30 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:43,479 Speaker 1: they said, you might want to talk to a human 31 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:45,039 Speaker 1: about this, and so I went, I had a meeting. 32 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 1: I sat down, we like looked at forms and stuff 33 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 1: like that. But you know, it's not I'm forty. It's 34 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 1: not the kind of thing that I've really spent a 35 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 1: lot of time thinking about other than just having jobs 36 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 1: that have, for one case, building up right. Uh, And 37 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 1: I just just really, you know, haven't thought in a 38 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: future oriented way like that before. And then immediately after that, 39 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 1: I came home and I started to research for this episode, 40 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:15,079 Speaker 1: which is essentially about planning for global annihilation, right for 41 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 1: for getting ready for the world, for Earth specifically to 42 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 1: be uninhabitable for us as human beings. Well and hopefully. 43 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 1: I mean the optimistic spin on that is preventing these 44 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 1: the events and preventing the kind of cascading effects that 45 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: could leave the earth uninhabitable. Yeah, but as we get 46 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:36,080 Speaker 1: as we will get into some of them are inevitable 47 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 1: and there's literally nothing we can do about them. But 48 00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:40,919 Speaker 1: those are luckily billions of years away. Yeah, some of 49 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:43,359 Speaker 1: these things are just so far off it's pointless to 50 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 1: worry about them. But some of them are worth worrying about, 51 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 1: and we're going to spend some time with those as well. 52 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:51,639 Speaker 1: You know what's kind of interesting is in your intro 53 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 1: that you presented just now, you touched on the very 54 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 1: first topic that you and I ever worked on together, 55 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 1: which is the Goldilocks prince bole. Do you remember I 56 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:04,520 Speaker 1: wrote a script for a brain Stuff episode like four 57 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 1: years ago that you performed, and it was you and 58 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 1: Kristen con and it was about the gold lux principle. 59 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: And then uh, then the stuff about mass extinction. My 60 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 1: first official episode as a co host of Stuff to 61 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:20,919 Speaker 1: Blow Your Mind was about mass extinction. So this this 62 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:24,080 Speaker 1: is interesting. Yeah, that that one was interesting because I 63 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:27,079 Speaker 1: remember that the topic was great. Uh and yet even 64 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 1: though you know, I had plenty of interactions with with 65 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 1: Congre previously. That was when I got to realize, oh, 66 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:34,519 Speaker 1: we have no on air chemistry to get at all. Well, 67 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 1: that was actually that That was sort of like along 68 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 1: the lines of what we were trying to do was 69 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 1: we were trying to test out all the various people 70 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 1: who did on screen stuff to see who did have 71 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: chemistry yea yeah. And while we were filming that, I 72 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 1: was like, I can I can tell we don't really 73 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 1: have we don't have a lot of it. I don't know. 74 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 1: People can go watch it and judge for themselves. It's 75 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 1: out there and the content is still good. It is yeah. 76 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: Uh so let's yeah, and this episode we're going to 77 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 1: discuss some long term concerns, some short term concerns regarding 78 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 1: the habitability of the planet Earth, as well as some 79 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 1: sort of random concerns thrown in there. Uh. I guess 80 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 1: you can sort of think about it in terms of 81 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 1: a really complex board game, right where you have you 82 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 1: have sort of the early game uh opponents or early 83 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:26,479 Speaker 1: game threats you have to deal with. You have the 84 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 1: in game stuff, you know, the real doom counter type scenarios, 85 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 1: and then you just have random events that may pop 86 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:35,280 Speaker 1: up and just in the game. Yeah, you're using a 87 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 1: lot of Arkham asylum phraseology here. I like it. I 88 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:41,599 Speaker 1: like it. Uh yeah. And and also, to be clear, 89 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:44,920 Speaker 1: the reason why I was really interested in covering this, uh, 90 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 1: even though we somehow ended up pairing this together with 91 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 1: zoophilia on the same day as topics that we're going 92 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 1: to discuss, it's actually because I'm working on this sci 93 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 1: fi horror story and I want it to be about 94 00:04:56,800 --> 00:05:01,040 Speaker 1: trans humans returning to an uninhabitab Earth. As I started 95 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 1: thinking to myself, like when will Earth be uninhabitable and 96 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 1: what will it look like? Yeah? Yeah, I mean this 97 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 1: is a This is a common trope in in science fiction, 98 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:14,599 Speaker 1: the idea of of the world becoming poisoned of humans 99 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:17,160 Speaker 1: of course moving beyond the Earth and then coming back 100 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 1: to it. Yeah, and in some cases the Earth is gone. Um, 101 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 1: if I remember correctly, in the in the Dune books, 102 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 1: it's reference that the original terror, the original Earth no 103 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 1: longer exists. Is that right? I didn't even know that 104 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: they acknowledged any connection to actual like humanity. Okay, yeah, well, 105 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 1: the like the Tradees are supposed to be um descendants 106 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:44,920 Speaker 1: of the Greeks, is that right, But but I believe 107 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:48,600 Speaker 1: it's it's what God Emperor of Dune. In one of 108 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:52,679 Speaker 1: the many lectures that the title character gives, he refers 109 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 1: to the original Earth and how it no longer exists. 110 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:57,479 Speaker 1: It may be a reference elsewhere in the in the 111 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 1: saga as well. But yeah, this episode is kind of like, 112 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 1: how do we to what extent can is that unavoidable? 113 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,840 Speaker 1: The eventuality of Earth being gone or Earth being just 114 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:11,120 Speaker 1: there but but nothing that we could live upon, And 115 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 1: what can we do about especially some of these random 116 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: and short term threats to the habitability of Earth. Now 117 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:22,039 Speaker 1: one of the long term effects this is not something 118 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 1: we need to worry about tomorrow or technically in the 119 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 1: next hundred years, but it is going to be a concern. 120 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:31,840 Speaker 1: It's probably one of the first things most people think of, right, 121 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 1: is the death of the Sun. That's right, like the 122 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 1: Sun just eventually turning into a red giant and swallowing 123 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:41,719 Speaker 1: the planet Earth. Yeah. Again, I would say, don't don't 124 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 1: lose any sleep over this, but it does exists as 125 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:49,920 Speaker 1: the like the late game game ending Doom counter situation totally, 126 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,480 Speaker 1: this is the point at which the game has to end, 127 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 1: or may have to end. Well, we'll get into some 128 00:06:55,960 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 1: of that presently. So I like to think of the 129 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 1: Sun is kind of a dot com erab business. It's 130 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: running on a huge influx of funding, but destined to 131 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 1: eventually burn out. Eventually the money is gonna gonna go away, 132 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 1: Eventually the energy is going to go away. So our 133 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 1: son has been going strong though as a business, as 134 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 1: a star, as the center of our solar system for 135 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 1: four point five billion years, and by most estimates it 136 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 1: has it has another five billion years left in the tank. 137 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 1: So it's got a lot of pivoting left to do. Yeah. Well, no, 138 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 1: well the pivots are key, because the pivots are or 139 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 1: what what we're gonna have to worry about. So when 140 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: the core runs out of hydrogen fuel, it's going to 141 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 1: contract under the weight of gravity. Uh So again, think 142 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 1: of like a bloated business that's suddenly the money is 143 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 1: not there to support it and it has to downsize. Um, 144 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 1: this is where the metaphor kind of becomes more difficult 145 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 1: to engage here, because, uh, some hydrogen infusion is still 146 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 1: gonna occur in the upper layers at this point, and 147 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 1: is the depleted core contracts, it heats up and this 148 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: it's up the upper layers of the Sun, causing them 149 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 1: to expand. As the outer layers expand, the radius of 150 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 1: the Sun will increase and it will become a red giant. Now, 151 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 1: the radius of the red giant Sun would be a 152 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 1: hundred times what it is now, lying just beyond the 153 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:19,280 Speaker 1: Earth's orbit. Some scientists have estimated that this would vaporize 154 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:21,080 Speaker 1: our planet, but there's also a good chance that it 155 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 1: would push Earth in its moon outward after consuming mercury 156 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 1: and venus. Now, obviously there's there's again nothing to lose 157 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 1: sleep over here. Um, you know, five billion years, that's 158 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 1: longer than the Earth has existed, and the span of 159 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 1: the human species is virtually nothing in that well of time. 160 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 1: And of course there's a lot that can and will 161 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:44,160 Speaker 1: happen before the Sun turns into a red giant. Long 162 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:46,800 Speaker 1: before this happens, say in a mirror one point two 163 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:49,440 Speaker 1: billion years, the Earth will grow hot enough to boil 164 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 1: the way our oceans. And then, after all this takes 165 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 1: place after the red giant phase, in nine point five 166 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: billion years, the Sun will collapse into a white dwarf 167 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 1: and the remaining dead world will continue to orbit around it. Eventually, 168 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 1: the white dwarf will go dark, and there'll be this 169 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 1: inevitable collision between it and another black dwarf, and this 170 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 1: will blast apart the remnants of our solar system. This 171 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:15,440 Speaker 1: according to an excellent article in Forbes, of all places, 172 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 1: even Ethan seagulls how our solar system will end in 173 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 1: the far future. I actually read the same piece, and Uh, 174 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 1: Siegell says, when our son was newborn, this is this 175 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 1: is good to get some perspective on it. It only 176 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 1: had of the power that it has right now. But 177 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 1: the properties of planet Earth, the flora, the fauna, the ocean, 178 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:40,720 Speaker 1: the atmosphere, all of that stuff has allowed us to 179 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 1: adapt right Also, the astrophysicist Robert Smith, not to be 180 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 1: confused with the frontman of cure Uh, says even just 181 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: the aging of the Sun will accelerate global warming to 182 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: a point where Earth's water just simply evaporates, as you 183 00:09:56,960 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, so there's not a whole lot we can 184 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:02,679 Speaker 1: do about that. The atmosphere will be laden with water 185 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: vapor at that point, Uh, And it's going to turn 186 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 1: out like the water vapor will act like a greenhouse gas, 187 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 1: which we're obviously going to come back to later. In 188 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:12,880 Speaker 1: this episode, the oceans will boil dry. But all right, 189 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 1: let's think really cosmic here for a second. Okay, let's 190 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 1: like zoom out. Let's pretend like we're Galactus from from 191 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 1: Fantastic four Comics or something here. Okay, what if we 192 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:30,560 Speaker 1: could harness comets and asteroids so they gravitationally slingshot past Earth, 193 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 1: but move us into a wider orbit away from the Sun. 194 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,960 Speaker 1: That might be possible in the future. Um, and I 195 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 1: believe on the Kardaship scale, that's like one of the 196 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 1: sort of ladder parts of the scale. Rights, if you 197 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 1: can harbor harness cosmic entities, well, I mean, first of all, 198 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 1: if you can harness all the power of the planet, 199 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:51,320 Speaker 1: and then if you can harness all the power of 200 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:54,360 Speaker 1: the Solar System. So yeah, just at that level, he 201 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:57,679 Speaker 1: would consivably have the ability to to move the planet 202 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 1: around to find a new orbit for it in some 203 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 1: of the the more extreme cases. You know, I've seen 204 00:11:03,520 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 1: it argue that, you know, you could take the planet 205 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 1: and move it beyond the Solar System. Certainly, when you 206 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: get into those upper levels of K three and K four, Uh, 207 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:16,559 Speaker 1: you're talking about godlike power, where on one level it 208 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:19,000 Speaker 1: becomes easy to say, well, of course we could do 209 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: this because of the amount of power that we would have. 210 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:23,080 Speaker 1: And then on the other you have you have to say, 211 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 1: what would we be if we had that much power, 212 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: if we had the power to harness uh all the 213 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:31,560 Speaker 1: power of a solar system or or or you know, 214 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 1: scales beyond that, then what would what would our values be? 215 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 1: What would we need? Would we care about moving the Earth? 216 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 1: We'd just be like, well, let it burn. We've got 217 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 1: these crazy spaceships now. Well, another theoretical way to move 218 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 1: the Earth is to build a planetary sunshade. That would 219 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 1: have a similar effect, and it would move it out 220 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 1: into a further orbit. But hey, guess what, even if 221 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 1: we can do that, the red giant phase of the 222 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 1: sun is it's gonna get earth like. Even if we 223 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 1: can move it far enough out that we can somehow 224 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:06,199 Speaker 1: use it to mitigate climate change, for instance, it's it's 225 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 1: not gonna matter that red giant is eventually going to 226 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 1: swallow us. Well, I'm not not by all. It depends 227 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 1: on how far out I guess you move it. Yeah, 228 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 1: but even if we escape, what's the world look like afterward? 229 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 1: As we're slouching towards extinction. Okay, so astrobiologist Jack O'Malley 230 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 1: James of Cornell University actually sketched out a sequence of 231 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:30,199 Speaker 1: extinctions over the course of four billion years. So here 232 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 1: we go, all right, at five hundred million years from now, 233 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:36,319 Speaker 1: from right now, that's when the sun is going to 234 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 1: start getting hotter and c O two will be sucked 235 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 1: out of the Earth's atmosphere. That's gonna make all of 236 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 1: the plants die off because they can't photosynthesize. Following that, 237 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 1: large vertebrates will go, then the small ones because there's 238 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 1: no plants for them to eat. Then the only remaining 239 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 1: animals will be marine invertebrates along with microbes. Maybe some 240 00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 1: insects that can eat dead plants will still be around, 241 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:03,959 Speaker 1: but mostly the only creature, uh, the only creatures that 242 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:05,599 Speaker 1: don't need to eat plants are gonna be able to 243 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 1: survive this. The last non microscopic remaining animals will probably 244 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 1: be those tube worms around the deep sea hydrothermal vents. 245 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:18,320 Speaker 1: Then at one billion years out from now, that's when 246 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 1: the oceans start to boil. Uh. And then if that 247 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 1: doesn't kill the microbes, the actual boiling of the oceans, 248 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 1: the CEO two levels eventually will fall so low that 249 00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:34,160 Speaker 1: even microbial photosynthesis will end. Okay, then at seven point 250 00:13:34,280 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: five billion years out, that's when we're talking about the 251 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:41,600 Speaker 1: Red Giant engulfing Earth and the Moon. But what if 252 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:47,319 Speaker 1: Jupiter's moon tighten suddenly became warm enough for life to evolve. 253 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:50,679 Speaker 1: So maybe that's the next place where there's going to 254 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:53,280 Speaker 1: be a habitable society. Well, it comes back around to 255 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:58,440 Speaker 1: the the frequent argument you see from from various astrophysicists 256 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:01,439 Speaker 1: and futurists, and that's just the the long long term 257 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:06,080 Speaker 1: survival of the human race depends on us UH expanding 258 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 1: beyond Earth absolutely. Now, some additional concerns for the future 259 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:16,680 Speaker 1: in any case of the far future. One is magnetosphere loss. 260 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 1: So Earth's magnetosphere is essentially a magnetic bubble that protects 261 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 1: the Earth from charge particles and plasma Earth's solid intercore 262 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:29,480 Speaker 1: and liquid outer core. This generates the field. Okay, it 263 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 1: generates the magnetosphere, and according to the dynamo theory, differences 264 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: in temperature and composition in the two core regions drive 265 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 1: this powerful dynamo UH, emitting Earth's protective electromagnetic field. Now, 266 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 1: some scientists theorized in about two to three billion years, 267 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 1: the dynamo MD half, leading to the decay of the magnetosphere. 268 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 1: And remember again how essential this field is. It's absence 269 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 1: on planets such as Mars make colonization a challenge. Like 270 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 1: it's hard to imagine life being being able to to 271 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 1: really take a firm um hold of a planet that 272 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 1: does not have a magnetosphere in place to shield life. Yeah, 273 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 1: protects us from so many of the hazards of space. 274 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 1: It's one of the key aspects of the Goldilocks principle, 275 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:19,200 Speaker 1: you know, one of the things that makes this planet 276 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 1: just right. And it's uh, it can be kind of 277 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 1: frightening or sobering to think about the fact that this 278 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 1: is not something that will last forever. But what about 279 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:29,760 Speaker 1: the Moon. I've seen a lot of people talk about 280 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 1: the moon is being like, well, if we could go 281 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: anywhere if climate change gets too bad, let's just go 282 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 1: to the Moon. Well, um, yeah, that well, the Moon 283 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 1: is probably not a great option for for living on either. Uh. 284 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: But but it does play into another long term concern, 285 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 1: and that has to do with the perturbation effects. So 286 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:53,680 Speaker 1: our large moon ensures climate stability by minimizing changes in 287 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 1: planetary tilt. If our planet didn't have a tilt, it 288 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:00,040 Speaker 1: wouldn't have seasons. Likewise, a severe tilt would result in 289 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 1: extreme seasons. As we've discussed on the show before, the 290 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 1: Moon is drifting away from Earth. Eventually, given you know, 291 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 1: enough time, it will be just far enough away to 292 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 1: make a total solar eclipse impossible. Yeah, I've actually got 293 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 1: some stats on that the Moon is moving away from 294 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:23,720 Speaker 1: us at three point seven eight centimeters a year. Between 295 00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 1: one point five and four point five billion years from 296 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 1: now is when it's going to stop stabilizing our tilt. Yeah. 297 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 1: The so the Moon pulls on the Earth, and the 298 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 1: Earth orbits the Sun, resulting in a torque that causes 299 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 1: the Moon to move a little bit farther away from 300 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 1: the Earth and slow the planet's rotation. Rotation slows by 301 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 1: one point four milliseconds per century. But in fifty billion 302 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:47,200 Speaker 1: years time, the Moon will orbit in forties, you know, 303 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 1: at a rate of forty seven days as opposed to 304 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 1: the twenty seven point three days we know today, and 305 00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 1: the twenty four hour Earth day will be forty seven 306 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 1: days long, and the Moon and Earth will then become 307 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 1: tidally locked as well. Luckily, we've already established that well 308 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,359 Speaker 1: before that fifty billion year mark, the Sun is gonna 309 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:07,160 Speaker 1: eat both of them, so it doesn't really matter. Yeah, 310 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 1: and so the idea here is that, uh, once the 311 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 1: stabilizing of the Earth's tilt stops, the poles are gonna 312 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 1: tip to a point where like the North and South 313 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:19,840 Speaker 1: poles are going to be where the equator would have been. 314 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 1: And this is going to cause obviously extraordinary climactic effects. 315 00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:25,879 Speaker 1: But it goes back to what we were talking about earlier. 316 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:28,959 Speaker 1: I mean, we have just the right moon for life 317 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 1: to be able to thrive here on Earth. So how 318 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 1: does this explain Transformers five? Then? Because in that movie, 319 00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:40,240 Speaker 1: the planet Cybertron just parks itself right next to Earth 320 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:44,160 Speaker 1: and I think destroys the Moon. So I mean, clearly 321 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 1: they thought through the science on them. I assume they 322 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:54,280 Speaker 1: brought um just being silly here. Obviously those don't make 323 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 1: a like a sense. But when this whole thing happens 324 00:17:57,760 --> 00:18:00,199 Speaker 1: with the tilt, some regions of the planet and it 325 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 1: will still be protected by the Sun, So it would 326 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 1: be possible to still live on the planet after this 327 00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 1: perturbation effect. So h What would be bad though, is 328 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:12,920 Speaker 1: that some parts would dip to below a hundred degrees 329 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 1: celsius for part of the year. The only thing that 330 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:17,920 Speaker 1: would be able to survive would be microbes inside these 331 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,919 Speaker 1: cold trap caves. And then even two point two billion 332 00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 1: years after that, those caves then will suddenly become too hot. 333 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 1: So yeah, it's no win scenario. You have to This 334 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 1: is when humans have to start living in the big pyramids. 335 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 1: The last re doubt of William Hope Hodgens The Night Lands. 336 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: Maybe that's what that hidden vault inside the pyramid was 337 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 1: that they just found recently. It's it's specifically designed for 338 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,800 Speaker 1: when the moon's moon stops affecting her tilt. I do 339 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 1: recommend any anyone who is interested in sort of uninhabitable 340 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 1: earth sci fi. William Hope Hodgins The Night Lands is 341 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 1: fabulous of kind of challenging to read because it depicts 342 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 1: uh an age in which humans will have to live 343 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 1: in these artificial structures UH on a dark earth like 344 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:04,359 Speaker 1: everything else is just cold and dark, but they're I 345 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 1: believe they're using thermo thermal energy to to maintain themselves. 346 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:11,679 Speaker 1: In the book, Hodge and stuff is just fascinating, especially 347 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,280 Speaker 1: when you consider the era that he lived and how 348 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:16,960 Speaker 1: far ahead. He was thinking, why don't we take a 349 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 1: break and then we come back. We can talk about 350 00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 1: some just random concerns, things that we can't particularly track 351 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:27,359 Speaker 1: for how they might end life on Earth. Thank, alright, 352 00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 1: we're back. So this first one is is a major threat. 353 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 1: Uh and it is a proven major threat to life 354 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:37,080 Speaker 1: on Earth. We're talking about near Earth objects or ane os, 355 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 1: So impact events are possible factors in three out of 356 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:45,240 Speaker 1: five major extinction events here on Earth. Space collisions occur 357 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 1: all the time, and most of them don't make too 358 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,160 Speaker 1: much noise, or at least those that have occurred during 359 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 1: human history haven't. That's because in space no one can 360 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 1: hear you scream. Well, of course, the thing is Earth 361 00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:57,640 Speaker 1: is in space too, so we're counting the Earth colliding 362 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:01,200 Speaker 1: with things, we're accounting the moon called lighting with things, etcetera. 363 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,439 Speaker 1: But even when they do make noise, we've been very lucky. 364 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:09,240 Speaker 1: For instance, consider Night to Munguska event, which hit a 365 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 1: sparsely populated corner of Siberia rather than a major population center, 366 00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:16,720 Speaker 1: and it's it's been pointed out that a mere four 367 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:20,400 Speaker 1: hours of planetary rotation would have placed the bull's eye 368 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 1: on densely populated St. Petersburg instead, So instead of having 369 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:28,359 Speaker 1: this just this devastating crater in this blast you know, 370 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 1: heard over vast distances, instead of it occurring in the 371 00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,920 Speaker 1: middle of nowhere, what if it had occurred in in St. Petersburg? 372 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 1: What have it occurred in a major center of human population. 373 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:40,400 Speaker 1: And you like to think, like in these big budget 374 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,280 Speaker 1: blockbuster disaster movies that like we'll be able to chart 375 00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 1: the course of these things, will know that when they're coming, 376 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:49,959 Speaker 1: and we'll evacuate cities. Right, But well, I mean this 377 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:51,439 Speaker 1: is this is this is where he gets into something 378 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,959 Speaker 1: I've talked about before, Like this is one of those 379 00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:59,440 Speaker 1: one of the few areas where where you can conceivably 380 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 1: save the world. Um, because the odds are that a 381 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 1: large INEO will come into play in the future and 382 00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:09,400 Speaker 1: humans will hopefully be in the technological and cultural position 383 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 1: to identify it, to track it and mitigate the situation. 384 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,480 Speaker 1: There are a number of different um methods that have 385 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:19,879 Speaker 1: been proposed for deflecting an incoming INEO, and they range 386 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:21,480 Speaker 1: from you know, blowing it up to just sort of 387 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 1: nudging it out of the way, to you know, harvesting it, 388 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:29,320 Speaker 1: et cetera. You send Bruce Willis and Steve BUSHEMI up there, Uh, Peter, 389 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 1: storm are and problem solved. Well, hopefully, I think we're 390 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 1: getting to the stage we realize we only need to 391 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:39,320 Speaker 1: send UM. But yeah, this is one of those few 392 00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:42,840 Speaker 1: areas where the work of NASA and other space agencies 393 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 1: their work to track ineos and and and eventually mitigate them. 394 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,200 Speaker 1: This is one of the few areas where concentrated human 395 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 1: efforts can actually save the world. And of particular interest 396 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 1: here are asteroids that are six point two miles or 397 00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:01,120 Speaker 1: ten kilometers in diameter or larger. The These are extinction 398 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,240 Speaker 1: class ineos. So here's some stats that I found on this. 399 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 1: A third of those thousand mile wide asteroids that are 400 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:16,440 Speaker 1: hurtling across Earth's orbital path will eventually strike us. But luckily, 401 00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 1: the rate of which that they will strike us is 402 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:22,440 Speaker 1: one in every three hundred thousand years. Now. For instance, 403 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:28,400 Speaker 1: similar to the Tunguska event in nine, a small one 404 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 1: way smaller than that crossed our orbit just six hours 405 00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 1: after Earth had passed through. Uh. This thing had the 406 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:39,679 Speaker 1: kinetic impact force equivalent to a thousand nuclear bombs. So 407 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:44,280 Speaker 1: we've talked before, UH, specifically in our rods from God 408 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 1: episode about dropping basically like metal telephone polls from outer 409 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:52,640 Speaker 1: space as weapons. Uh, the impact, just the basic kinetic 410 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,879 Speaker 1: impact of something from outer space hitting the planet is considerable. 411 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,240 Speaker 1: So something that small would be the equivalent of a 412 00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 1: thousand US. Yeah. I remember in our Inner Interplanetary War 413 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,920 Speaker 1: episode we talked about that a bit like having having 414 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:10,119 Speaker 1: orbital superiority over a planet. It gives you just tremendous 415 00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 1: power without even having any explosives or nuclear devices, just 416 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,760 Speaker 1: the ability to drop things if you have those things 417 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 1: with you. I think we we concluded in that episode, 418 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:24,920 Speaker 1: if you have a ship that is capable of interplanetary travel, 419 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,000 Speaker 1: that alone is enough of a weapon to destroy an 420 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,159 Speaker 1: entire planet. Yeah, just by crashing it into it. Yeah, 421 00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:33,560 Speaker 1: it's not like Star Trek where the Enterprise like just 422 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,880 Speaker 1: like you know, like a like lands in the lake 423 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:41,360 Speaker 1: or whatever. Now, another area to concern getting away from 424 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 1: d e O s um it comes. It gets downd 425 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 1: to the issue of Near Earth supernova. So this is 426 00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,280 Speaker 1: another concern that's even more insidious in some ways because 427 00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:52,880 Speaker 1: there's not much of a way to stop them. Other 428 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:55,960 Speaker 1: other cosmic threats include gamma ray bursts caused by the 429 00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:57,920 Speaker 1: birth of a black hole or the collusion of two 430 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,480 Speaker 1: neutron stars. It's been estimated did a ten second burst 431 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:05,199 Speaker 1: originating within six thousand light years could deplete up to 432 00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 1: half the planets ozone layer, and such an event might 433 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:14,000 Speaker 1: have played in the Ordovician mass extinction. Okay, Well, another 434 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,480 Speaker 1: figure that I read in the various articles that we 435 00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:20,679 Speaker 1: looked up for this Supposedly the Andromeda Galaxy is on 436 00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:24,600 Speaker 1: a multi billion year collision course with the Milky Way 437 00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 1: as well. So not only are we worrying about the planet, 438 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:31,919 Speaker 1: but our entire galaxy is in trouble too. Yeah. Yeah, things, 439 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 1: things fall apart, and things have a way of colliding 440 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 1: together as well. But all of this stuff is either 441 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:41,320 Speaker 1: random or a long way out, right, Like we've established, 442 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:45,040 Speaker 1: like the asteroids, there's a pretty low percentage chance or 443 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,679 Speaker 1: hopefully we'll be able to track it. And and that's 444 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,960 Speaker 1: not random, but but it's it's it's not something that 445 00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:53,439 Speaker 1: like we know for sure is going to happen the 446 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 1: Sun we know for sure, that's super far away. Yeah, 447 00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 1: Like the long term issues are long term issues that 448 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,359 Speaker 1: made be unavoidable, and we can't lose much sleep as 449 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,159 Speaker 1: far as the random issues go. I do believe there 450 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:09,399 Speaker 1: is a real need to focus on ineos, and I 451 00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:12,399 Speaker 1: think that like basic planetary protection is essential there. But 452 00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:14,720 Speaker 1: still it's the kind of thing where, yes, someone could 453 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:17,520 Speaker 1: make an argument for well, we'll just let the next 454 00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:21,000 Speaker 1: generation figure that out. You know, you remember when we 455 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,120 Speaker 1: were kids in the eighties and the Reggae administration developed 456 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:27,600 Speaker 1: the Star Wars system. My first reaction was I confused 457 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,240 Speaker 1: it with the movie Star Wars. My second was that 458 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,679 Speaker 1: I assumed that it was about asteroids, that it was 459 00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 1: the whole defense system was designed to protect us from asteroids. 460 00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 1: Turns out, no, not at all, to perfect us from us. Yes, 461 00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:43,119 Speaker 1: it turns out, and we'll get to that threat. So 462 00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:47,280 Speaker 1: what about shorter term concerns, Like, let's narrow this down right, 463 00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:51,639 Speaker 1: like when are we going to have to get off Earth? Basically? 464 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:57,280 Speaker 1: So here's some good news. Uh, Mammal species tend to 465 00:25:57,359 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 1: only last about a million years on average anyway, So 466 00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 1: we as human beings have already had two hundred thousand years, 467 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:08,560 Speaker 1: So we've got eight hundred thousand years left. That's pretty good, right, 468 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 1: That's more than we've already had. So yeah, well that 469 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,439 Speaker 1: of course is not counting in counting on the various 470 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:21,680 Speaker 1: ways that we are working at our own destruction exactly. Uh. 471 00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 1: Stephen Hawking, though recently he actually gave an interview in 472 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 1: the last couple of years talking about this stuff. He 473 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,960 Speaker 1: is a proponent of us freeing ourselves from other Earth, 474 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 1: as he calls it. And he says, quote, it will 475 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:36,280 Speaker 1: be difficult enough to avoid disaster on planet Earth in 476 00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:40,679 Speaker 1: the next hundred years, let alone the next thousand or million. 477 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:42,200 Speaker 1: All right, So we all of a sudden went from 478 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,080 Speaker 1: like billions of years to the next hundred years as 479 00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:49,000 Speaker 1: being like potential problem. And he says, this is either 480 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:53,000 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons or the aging sun acceleration and and this 481 00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:55,760 Speaker 1: isn't the Sun swallowing the Earth. We're talking about global 482 00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:59,920 Speaker 1: warming here. And as we've already discussed, Hawking says, if 483 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 1: man doesn't make the planet uninhabitable or the sun, then 484 00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 1: we're going to encounter a supernova or an asteroid or 485 00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,159 Speaker 1: even a black hole. We didn't even touch on black holes. 486 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:13,280 Speaker 1: So all right, let's talk about it. Climate change. Some 487 00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 1: starter facts here. I didn't know this. Eighteen eight is 488 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 1: when scientists first started keeping track of global temperature logs. 489 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,560 Speaker 1: Last year two thousand sixteen. We're recording this in two 490 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:29,240 Speaker 1: thousand seventeen. Last year was the hottest year the world 491 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 1: has seen since scientists started recording global temperature logs. Now. Overall, 492 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 1: the planet has warmed two point three degrees fahrenheit or 493 00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 1: one point to six degrees celsius in that time. Let's 494 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,520 Speaker 1: try to keep those numbers in mind as like a 495 00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:50,240 Speaker 1: point of perspective as we're looking towards the future. And 496 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 1: I want to talk briefly to as we get into 497 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:57,400 Speaker 1: this about climate change. As I guess I would define 498 00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,720 Speaker 1: it as like a rhetorical communication problem. Is this article 499 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:04,800 Speaker 1: in the Atlantic where Robinson Meyer argues there's three shifts 500 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,920 Speaker 1: that are going on right now, primarily here in the USA, 501 00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:12,040 Speaker 1: but globally as well with climate change that make it 502 00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 1: hard to communicate. The first is that the consequences of 503 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,560 Speaker 1: climate change are severe and devastating. We've got a lot 504 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,840 Speaker 1: of examples that we've given so many examples on this 505 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,920 Speaker 1: show before. Uh we're talking about mega droughts, We're talking 506 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:29,320 Speaker 1: about sweltering summers, or the destruction of the Great Barrier reef, 507 00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 1: among others. Secondly, some people are trying to address climate 508 00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 1: change with things like solar and wind as energy or 509 00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,720 Speaker 1: say electric cars as a way to attempt to stabilize 510 00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:44,920 Speaker 1: the amount of carbon that's released in the atmosphere. But 511 00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:48,840 Speaker 1: we have to acknowledge that, as of this recording, the 512 00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:50,880 Speaker 1: country that Robert and I live in, the United States 513 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:55,400 Speaker 1: of America is undermining climate policy because we've abandoned the 514 00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 1: Paris Agreement. Yeah, there's a there's an episode that Joe 515 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,920 Speaker 1: and I recorded few months back back titled Science Communication Breakdown. 516 00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:06,000 Speaker 1: And now we get into into this topic a fair amount, 517 00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,160 Speaker 1: like getting into the idea of like, Okay, we have 518 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:12,320 Speaker 1: we we have the science of climate change, and yet 519 00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 1: we have a large portion of the population that that 520 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,800 Speaker 1: denies it or or is an opposition to it. Why 521 00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:22,240 Speaker 1: does that occur? Why has this topic become politicized when 522 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,800 Speaker 1: it is a matter of scientific consensus. So I would 523 00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,680 Speaker 1: I would refer listeners back to that episode if if 524 00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:32,080 Speaker 1: you want a more like in depth tackling of that 525 00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,719 Speaker 1: of that issue. Yeah, I think so, what we're facing 526 00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:39,720 Speaker 1: here are two opposed visions of the future, right, and 527 00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,920 Speaker 1: neither are really scientific in nature. One is economic, one 528 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:46,400 Speaker 1: is political in there in opposition to one another. So 529 00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:49,280 Speaker 1: all of this leads us to this article that actually, 530 00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:51,520 Speaker 1: you know, we talked at the beginning about the impetus 531 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,160 Speaker 1: for doing this episode. I was unaware of this, but 532 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,960 Speaker 1: it just came out this July in New York magazine. 533 00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,719 Speaker 1: It was written by David Wallace Wells, and the articles 534 00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 1: type was the Uninhabitable Earth, and in this he argued 535 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,760 Speaker 1: that parts of Earth will become uninhabitable by the end 536 00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:13,920 Speaker 1: of this century. Many climate scientists and science communicators strongly 537 00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:15,959 Speaker 1: disagreed with him on this, and they said that this 538 00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:19,640 Speaker 1: was a doomsday scenario, it wasn't realistic, and that it 539 00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,800 Speaker 1: wasn't supported by evidence. They also said that his article 540 00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:26,440 Speaker 1: doesn't identify his sources either. Now I want to step 541 00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:29,120 Speaker 1: back for a second. I read through his whole article 542 00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:32,280 Speaker 1: and a number of rebuttals to his article. Okay, I'll 543 00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:36,320 Speaker 1: provide my thoughts later, but he definitely cites sources, and 544 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:38,880 Speaker 1: he provides links to a lot of statistics that he 545 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:42,560 Speaker 1: uses throughout the piece. Now, either he added those after 546 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:47,280 Speaker 1: the criticism, or his detractors are exaggerating their complaints. Uh. 547 00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:50,360 Speaker 1: I didn't fact check every one of his sources, but 548 00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:53,760 Speaker 1: it looks like he at least attempted to provide some 549 00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:58,280 Speaker 1: kind of logical evidence for his claims. Well basic Based 550 00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:00,800 Speaker 1: on what I was looking at, it seems like a 551 00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:04,200 Speaker 1: lot of the complaints were basically making the charge that 552 00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:06,760 Speaker 1: you were you're presenting this a is U is a 553 00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:10,640 Speaker 1: scare piece that you're and that that is not how 554 00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:14,720 Speaker 1: one needs to communicate the topic. Uh. And and based 555 00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:19,800 Speaker 1: on previous research for the Communicy Science Communication Breakdown episode, 556 00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:23,160 Speaker 1: I mean, I I can agree with that, like that 557 00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:25,920 Speaker 1: does not seem to necessarily be the way to reach 558 00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:29,520 Speaker 1: new minds about the topic. Uh, it's just I mean, 559 00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:31,400 Speaker 1: it could be useful, I guess as a rallying cry 560 00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:34,760 Speaker 1: for people who are already convinced. And and maybe that's 561 00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:36,960 Speaker 1: the prime purpose of the peace I mean, one has 562 00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:40,520 Speaker 1: to take the readership into mind here, like where where 563 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:42,920 Speaker 1: was the article published? And who are the the intended 564 00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:46,480 Speaker 1: readers of the piece? Yeah, so the article itself is 565 00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 1: problematic for climate scientists, and and you know, because of 566 00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:52,400 Speaker 1: the reasons we outlined above, obviously, but also because they're 567 00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,720 Speaker 1: trying to be very very careful about how they communicate 568 00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:58,720 Speaker 1: climate change with the public. They want to make sure 569 00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:02,280 Speaker 1: that the facts that are resented are absolutely indisputable. And 570 00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:07,280 Speaker 1: they also have research that shows that we respond better 571 00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:12,080 Speaker 1: to hopeful messages instead of fatalistic messages. So that's along 572 00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:13,960 Speaker 1: the lines of I think what you and Joe covered 573 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:17,240 Speaker 1: in Communication Breakdown. This is my take on it. Okay, 574 00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:22,400 Speaker 1: I would argue that climate change communicators they're facing a 575 00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:26,160 Speaker 1: branding problem. And this is just from my experience working 576 00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:30,600 Speaker 1: on this show and doing science communication. There's so much 577 00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:35,400 Speaker 1: evidence for climate change that we've encountered just while we've 578 00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:38,800 Speaker 1: been researching other topics on this show, not even intending 579 00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:42,640 Speaker 1: to talk about climate show. Yeah, when we did our 580 00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:44,640 Speaker 1: small Barred episode, it was all over the place. And 581 00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:48,320 Speaker 1: there when we've talked tomorrow Heart about coral reef biology, 582 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:50,360 Speaker 1: it was all over there. It's it just it keeps 583 00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:54,440 Speaker 1: coming up every time I'm presented with that evidence. It's 584 00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:58,040 Speaker 1: even more convincing. Some people that just have a knee 585 00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:02,360 Speaker 1: jerk response the minute they heard they hear this terminology 586 00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:07,400 Speaker 1: climate change, right, they just assume that it's automatically disinformation 587 00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:11,960 Speaker 1: for some reason. Now, if you just present the evidence 588 00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:16,840 Speaker 1: of the impact, they seem to believe that, but you 589 00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,440 Speaker 1: don't attach those terms to it. It's like, for some 590 00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 1: reason it has a branding problem in rhetoric. This is 591 00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:24,960 Speaker 1: what might be called an ethos problem. There seems to 592 00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:28,320 Speaker 1: be a negative connection between the terminology and the quality 593 00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:32,880 Speaker 1: of its character. And that might be because of doomsayers 594 00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:36,840 Speaker 1: like Wallace Wells, right, because of scare pieces like this, 595 00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:39,680 Speaker 1: which which again I can see where a scare piece 596 00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:43,280 Speaker 1: would be would be beneficial to people who are you 597 00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:47,880 Speaker 1: know who who don't deny the scientific consensus, that that 598 00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:51,520 Speaker 1: just needs something that maybe to is a rallying cry, 599 00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:54,680 Speaker 1: you know, as a reminder of what's at stake. Um. 600 00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:58,040 Speaker 1: You know, I don't think we should sugarcoat topics. But again, 601 00:33:58,080 --> 00:33:59,960 Speaker 1: the argument is there that if you're looking to reach 602 00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,720 Speaker 1: new minds, if you're looking to to connect with people 603 00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,680 Speaker 1: who are in a state of denial or doubt, then 604 00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:09,520 Speaker 1: this is not the best tactic. Well, let's go through 605 00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:14,120 Speaker 1: his piece. Uh and well, I'm I've outlined his claims 606 00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,360 Speaker 1: here along with the counter arguments against them. I do 607 00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:20,120 Speaker 1: want to cite him specifically here. This is a quote 608 00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:23,160 Speaker 1: from the article. He says. This article is the result 609 00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:27,560 Speaker 1: of dozens of interviews in exchanges with climatologists and researchers 610 00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:32,000 Speaker 1: in related fields, and reflects hundreds of scientific papers on 611 00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:35,440 Speaker 1: the subject of climate change. Later on, he says, it 612 00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,400 Speaker 1: is a portrait of our best understanding of where the 613 00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:44,399 Speaker 1: planet is heading absent aggressive action. Again, my personal take 614 00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,480 Speaker 1: on this, I read through the whole piece. I'll say 615 00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:48,440 Speaker 1: that outside of the problems that we're going to outline 616 00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:51,760 Speaker 1: with his evidence, the pros itself reads like a rant. 617 00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:54,480 Speaker 1: So along the lines of like just saying like, oh, 618 00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:57,080 Speaker 1: this seems like a scare piece, it sort of reads 619 00:34:57,120 --> 00:35:00,279 Speaker 1: like that, it's it's difficult to understand it, and he 620 00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,719 Speaker 1: bombards you with information in this way that just isn't persuasive, 621 00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:06,799 Speaker 1: And I think that in and of itself is problematic 622 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:10,200 Speaker 1: if the goal is to change reader's minds. So he says, 623 00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:15,200 Speaker 1: the likely warming expectation from a scenario is presented by 624 00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:19,120 Speaker 1: the United Nations inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change, and 625 00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:23,480 Speaker 1: this was in now. They say we're looking at somewhere 626 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,520 Speaker 1: between a two point six and a four point eight 627 00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:32,240 Speaker 1: degrees celsiust shift by the time we reach one somewhere 628 00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:38,440 Speaker 1: between that period of time. Now, I think it's worth 629 00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:42,799 Speaker 1: noting that Wallace Wells argues the upper end of the 630 00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:46,719 Speaker 1: probability curve actually runs as high as eight degrees. So 631 00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:50,800 Speaker 1: he goes way higher than this. This study that he cites, 632 00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,279 Speaker 1: they say highest is four point eight. He goes all 633 00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:56,359 Speaker 1: the way up to eight degrees. That's way higher than 634 00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:59,719 Speaker 1: their prediction the Paris Climate Accords. Just to give you, 635 00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:03,840 Speaker 1: like again, like some perspective here. All they're trying to 636 00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:06,800 Speaker 1: do is get us to the point where we only 637 00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:10,600 Speaker 1: go up by two degrees in that period of time. 638 00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:14,000 Speaker 1: So you see just how much of a difference there 639 00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:17,400 Speaker 1: is in these seem like relatively small numbers, right, two 640 00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:21,680 Speaker 1: for eight, But there's a lot. There's a lot there now. 641 00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:25,200 Speaker 1: Wallace Wells also starts by saying that the sea level 642 00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:28,280 Speaker 1: rise isn't the worst of our concerns with global warming. 643 00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:31,479 Speaker 1: This is because there there's a lot of attention paid 644 00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:34,520 Speaker 1: to sea level rise earlier in this year in scientific articles. 645 00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,960 Speaker 1: He says, yes, cities will drown, but other parts of 646 00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:41,640 Speaker 1: the world will become uninhabitable by the end of the century. Quote, 647 00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,120 Speaker 1: most of the scientists I spoke with assume we're gonna 648 00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:50,200 Speaker 1: lose Miami and Bangladesh within the century, even if we 649 00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:54,160 Speaker 1: stop burning fossil fuels within the next decade. He also 650 00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:57,800 Speaker 1: says that cities like Karachi and Kolkata would be so 651 00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,360 Speaker 1: hot that they would be close to inhabitable, and he 652 00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:05,160 Speaker 1: wonders if this is why we have this obsession with 653 00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:08,840 Speaker 1: apocalyptic fiction, right all the zombie movies or Mad Max 654 00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:12,000 Speaker 1: movies and the world scenarios. He says, maybe this is 655 00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:17,120 Speaker 1: a collective result of displaced climate anxiety. Okay, I know 656 00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:18,840 Speaker 1: we're hitting you with a lot of heavy stuff. So 657 00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:22,600 Speaker 1: here's a fun aside. I'm doing the research on this yesterday, 658 00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:24,840 Speaker 1: and I've been listening to a lot of led Zeppelin 659 00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:26,960 Speaker 1: in the last week because I saw that Thor Ragnarok 660 00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:32,000 Speaker 1: movie and they play immigrant song and yeah, yeah, yeah, 661 00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:35,480 Speaker 1: it's it's it's prime. So I'm listening to led Zeppelin 662 00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:39,080 Speaker 1: and while I'm prepping these notes here when the levy 663 00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:42,640 Speaker 1: breaks comes on. That was that was pretty eerie, like 664 00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,920 Speaker 1: worrying about flooding and all that. Uh, and then like 665 00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:49,200 Speaker 1: the soundtrack just kicked in there. All right. Back to 666 00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:52,680 Speaker 1: the study, he also says the world's perma frost is 667 00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:56,840 Speaker 1: going to send its methane into our atmosphere as it melts, 668 00:37:56,920 --> 00:38:00,399 Speaker 1: and that is going to accelerate the planet's warming in 669 00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:02,799 Speaker 1: the in just the next couple of decades to come. 670 00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:06,400 Speaker 1: He uses the thawing of the ground around this fall 671 00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,000 Speaker 1: barred vault as an example. We talked about this in 672 00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:13,440 Speaker 1: our small part example. Now he also says that perma 673 00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:19,000 Speaker 1: frost contains one point eight trillion tons of carbon. That 674 00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:22,040 Speaker 1: is more than twice as much as what is currently 675 00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:25,680 Speaker 1: suspended in Earth's atmosphere. Okay, so that's his argument about 676 00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:30,840 Speaker 1: the perma frost. His detractors say, alright, yes, perma frost 677 00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:35,560 Speaker 1: will emit methane, and yes, methane is a potent greenhouse gas, 678 00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:40,680 Speaker 1: but scientists don't actually think that that much is going 679 00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:43,160 Speaker 1: to escape in this century. There was a study that 680 00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:46,799 Speaker 1: was published in twenty that found that perma frost melt 681 00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:51,240 Speaker 1: would only release about five to fift pent of its carbon, 682 00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:53,680 Speaker 1: and that that would be in the form of carbon 683 00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:58,920 Speaker 1: dioxide and not methane. So that's substantial. It's still something 684 00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:02,120 Speaker 1: we need to worry about. It's not as dire. Wallace 685 00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:06,960 Speaker 1: Wells says, Actually, methane is thirty four times as powerful 686 00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,000 Speaker 1: as c O two, so we should keep that in mind. 687 00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:11,440 Speaker 1: Another example that he brings up in his piece. Do 688 00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:15,360 Speaker 1: you remember earlier this year when the um there was 689 00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:17,800 Speaker 1: that crack in the ice shelf. I think it started 690 00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:19,839 Speaker 1: in May and then it broke off and calved off 691 00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:22,799 Speaker 1: into this like massive iceberg. He used that as an 692 00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:26,200 Speaker 1: example as well, along the lines of the perma frost um. 693 00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:29,920 Speaker 1: He also said that satellite data shows that the planet 694 00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:32,840 Speaker 1: has warmed twice as fast as we thought it would. 695 00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:36,720 Speaker 1: He adds a qualifier though afterwards he says that quote 696 00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:41,319 Speaker 1: the underlying story was considerably less alarming than the headlines. 697 00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:43,560 Speaker 1: This was one of the things that he had to 698 00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:46,680 Speaker 1: update in his article afterwards after so many people complained. 699 00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:48,840 Speaker 1: There's a footnote at the end of the article that 700 00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:51,080 Speaker 1: lets you know all the things that were changed afterwards. 701 00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:53,719 Speaker 1: So while he warns us about the satellite data, he 702 00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,560 Speaker 1: also kind of backs up and he says, I know, 703 00:39:56,680 --> 00:40:00,719 Speaker 1: like that was kind of scaremongering. Uh. In actuality, it 704 00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:04,520 Speaker 1: seems like those satellite models have tracked closer to what 705 00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:09,760 Speaker 1: we predicted. He also says carbon dioxide levels, so remember 706 00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:11,920 Speaker 1: earlier they said, oh, it's gonna be carbon dioxide instead 707 00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:14,680 Speaker 1: of methane. Well, he said, carbon dioxide levels, if they 708 00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:17,719 Speaker 1: go up, they're actually going to depress our brain functions 709 00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:22,360 Speaker 1: on a global level. Other scientists argue back and they say, 710 00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:25,040 Speaker 1: this seems like it will only be an indoor problem, 711 00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:30,040 Speaker 1: not an outdoor problem. I don't know. I'm not a climatologist. Now, 712 00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:34,239 Speaker 1: in his own defense, Wallace Wells argues he didn't want 713 00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:36,719 Speaker 1: to be misleading in his portrayal of the research, but 714 00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:40,720 Speaker 1: he ran his peace by climate experts, and he wanted 715 00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:44,920 Speaker 1: the piece to survey worst case scenarios because he believes quote, 716 00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:49,400 Speaker 1: the public does not appreciate the unlikely but still possible 717 00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:52,560 Speaker 1: dangers of climate change. So that seems like he's he's 718 00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:55,200 Speaker 1: making his sort of rhetorical purpose clear here, right, Like 719 00:40:55,280 --> 00:41:00,160 Speaker 1: he he acknowledges that he was, uh somewhat being extremist. Right. 720 00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:03,799 Speaker 1: His main concerns in the conclusion of the piece are 721 00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:06,200 Speaker 1: that climate change is going to lead to a threat 722 00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:09,200 Speaker 1: to our food supplies in the next hundred years. There's 723 00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:11,920 Speaker 1: going to be a risk of increased violence as temperature 724 00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:17,399 Speaker 1: goes up, and that fears of long dormant viruses awakening 725 00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:20,680 Speaker 1: from the Arctic permafrost will come true. This is a 726 00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:24,160 Speaker 1: plot of Fortitude, the TV show that I keep talking 727 00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:26,480 Speaker 1: about on here, that that's one of the things that 728 00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:29,320 Speaker 1: happens there. Because they're on small bard. Uh He also 729 00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:34,200 Speaker 1: mentions unbreathable air and the danger of extreme heat combined 730 00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:36,960 Speaker 1: with high humidity. Now, this is something I've never heard 731 00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:40,040 Speaker 1: of before, but it's related to climate change, something called 732 00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:43,560 Speaker 1: the wet bulb temperature concept. Have you heard of this? 733 00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:47,440 Speaker 1: What it relates to the human body's ability to cool itself? Right, Yeah, 734 00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:51,560 Speaker 1: exactly so. Uh. The idea here is that we cool 735 00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:54,759 Speaker 1: our skin by sweating, right, which is how we stay 736 00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:57,640 Speaker 1: alive in the worst heat. I can tell you, Uh. 737 00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:01,240 Speaker 1: Here in Atlanta it was like almost eighty agrees yesterday 738 00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:05,040 Speaker 1: in November, and I walked home two miles. I swept 739 00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:07,880 Speaker 1: quite a bit. Okay, that was me staying alive in 740 00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:11,880 Speaker 1: that heat. When you get above thirty three degrees celsius 741 00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:18,040 Speaker 1: or nine degrees fahrenheit, our threshold for heat stroke comes up, 742 00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:21,239 Speaker 1: and that can be fatal. Based on that I p 743 00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:25,560 Speaker 1: c c worst case scenario that he's citing, a third 744 00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:29,000 Speaker 1: of the US population would be facing a day or 745 00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:33,720 Speaker 1: more of such dangerous conditions. The typical summer day would 746 00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:38,319 Speaker 1: exceed this heat stroke threshold. So that's concerning, Yeah, I mean, 747 00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:42,520 Speaker 1: especially when you take into account the limited ability of 748 00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:48,240 Speaker 1: of various people, great portions of the population to stay cool. Yeah, exactly. Now, 749 00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:51,560 Speaker 1: the terms weird, right, wet bulb temperature will it turns 750 00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:54,440 Speaker 1: out that it comes from wrapping a thermometer in a 751 00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:58,560 Speaker 1: damp sock. The idea there is that that will actually 752 00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:04,040 Speaker 1: reflect both heat and humidity simultaneously, and Wallace Wells argues 753 00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:08,279 Speaker 1: in his peace that the resulting dehydration that comes as 754 00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:10,399 Speaker 1: an effect of all of this is going to cause 755 00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:15,600 Speaker 1: chronic kidney disease across our entire culture. So we're just 756 00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:20,799 Speaker 1: in cascading effects here as Yeah, okay, a little bit 757 00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:25,080 Speaker 1: more about this. His detractors say that the post climate 758 00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:27,920 Speaker 1: change world is actually gonna look a lot like the 759 00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:31,200 Speaker 1: world currently looks like, except it's going to be more 760 00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:34,799 Speaker 1: unequal and more impoverished. So essentially they're saying, we're not 761 00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:37,160 Speaker 1: you know, a hundred years from now, the world isn't 762 00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:41,080 Speaker 1: going to be uninhabitable, it's just gonna be less equitable. Uh. 763 00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:45,719 Speaker 1: They argue that he glosses over reasons why climate advocates 764 00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:48,680 Speaker 1: actually have some hope. They also make one important point 765 00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:51,840 Speaker 1: his articles citation of those I P c C numbers. 766 00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:54,719 Speaker 1: Not only are they like way higher, but he also 767 00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:59,000 Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily clarify between celsius and fahrenheit in his story, 768 00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:03,640 Speaker 1: and there's huge discrepancies there. More likely, though, because of 769 00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:07,000 Speaker 1: trends like the Paris Climate Agreement, human society will bend 770 00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:11,960 Speaker 1: emissions downward without hitting these worst case scenarios that he's outlined. 771 00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,480 Speaker 1: Even in an email with The Washington Post, Wallace Wells 772 00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:19,160 Speaker 1: conceded the most likely scenario is about a two point 773 00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:22,880 Speaker 1: five to three degree celsius change by the end of 774 00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:26,919 Speaker 1: the century. Since eighteen eighty we've only seen a one 775 00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:30,280 Speaker 1: point to six degree celsius changed, so that's still pretty 776 00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:32,719 Speaker 1: significant if you think about it. So even if we're 777 00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:36,239 Speaker 1: able to drop carbon emissions to zero tomorrow, like if 778 00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:38,840 Speaker 1: we made waived a magic wand right and all of 779 00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:41,800 Speaker 1: a sudden, all cars, all all of our technologies stopped 780 00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:44,880 Speaker 1: emitting carbon, that's obviously not going to happen. We would 781 00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:49,120 Speaker 1: still be dealing with climate change for centuries afterward. So 782 00:44:49,160 --> 00:44:52,160 Speaker 1: our only option at this point is to adapt to 783 00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:55,200 Speaker 1: it as painlessly as possible. And how do we address 784 00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:59,640 Speaker 1: this well. One proposal is to develop technology that takes 785 00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:03,000 Speaker 1: CEO two out of our atmosphere to dampen the greenhouse 786 00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:06,520 Speaker 1: effect that seems interesting but also problematic to me. Right, 787 00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:10,200 Speaker 1: It's like the technology got us in this problem in 788 00:45:10,239 --> 00:45:13,080 Speaker 1: the first place, right, and it will build more of 789 00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:16,280 Speaker 1: it and we'll use that to sap out the bad stuff. 790 00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,880 Speaker 1: But then what will be the repercussions of that, Well, 791 00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:21,600 Speaker 1: it's one of those scenarios where you imagine that a 792 00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:23,680 Speaker 1: little more hot water because the bath is too cold, 793 00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:26,200 Speaker 1: a little more cold water because the bath is too hot, 794 00:45:26,239 --> 00:45:29,040 Speaker 1: and then eventually the bath is overflown. So let's try 795 00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:31,839 Speaker 1: to ground this in some more recent studies that are 796 00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:34,440 Speaker 1: maybe a little more closer how things are going to 797 00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:36,920 Speaker 1: shake out in the next hundred years. A study published 798 00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:40,040 Speaker 1: in the June issue of Science by the Climate Impact Lab. 799 00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:43,080 Speaker 1: They argued that actually, climate change is going to have 800 00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:47,239 Speaker 1: an economic impact. First, the poor are going to get 801 00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:50,800 Speaker 1: poorer and the rich are going to get richer. Great, uh, 802 00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:55,280 Speaker 1: this will impoverish the poorest communities in the United States first, 803 00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:59,080 Speaker 1: and the outline that the south, the Southwest, and communities 804 00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:01,080 Speaker 1: along the Gulf coasts are going to be the ones 805 00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:05,680 Speaker 1: that are hit the hardest. Cities and coastal suburbs, however, 806 00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:10,160 Speaker 1: are going to just get richer. Contributing to this is 807 00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:13,239 Speaker 1: that ocean rise that he addressed at the beginning. We're 808 00:46:13,239 --> 00:46:16,240 Speaker 1: looking at an ocean rise of two to three feet 809 00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:19,840 Speaker 1: by the year twenty one. That could displace up to 810 00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:24,480 Speaker 1: four million people around the world. So essentially, sell your 811 00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:28,520 Speaker 1: beachfront property right because it's gonna be underwater soon. Another 812 00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:32,840 Speaker 1: study out of Columbia University's Program on Climate Science, Awareness 813 00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:36,960 Speaker 1: and Solutions finds that summers in general are becoming hotter 814 00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:42,720 Speaker 1: than the average recorded between nineteen fifty one in nineteen eighty. 815 00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:46,279 Speaker 1: This will lead to increased heat in the subtropics, it's 816 00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:49,400 Speaker 1: going to cause more droughts, increased floods, and it's going 817 00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:52,279 Speaker 1: to start impacting our human health. You know, like when 818 00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:54,640 Speaker 1: you you look up the weather and you see like 819 00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:58,560 Speaker 1: those those warnings it's like extreme air quality or something 820 00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:02,360 Speaker 1: like that, those orange air quality warnings a lot here. Yeah, 821 00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:04,160 Speaker 1: I think we're going to be looking at more of 822 00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:09,080 Speaker 1: those from what this sounds like, and then conservative estimates, 823 00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:12,279 Speaker 1: even like the most conservative estimates about climate changers, saying 824 00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:15,239 Speaker 1: we're looking at more droughts across our land, as well 825 00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:19,279 Speaker 1: as more natural disasters things like storm surges, wildfires, and 826 00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:23,760 Speaker 1: heat waves. So in terms of our larger question here, 827 00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:28,319 Speaker 1: when will the Earth become uninhabitable? From a climate change perspective, 828 00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:32,080 Speaker 1: it all seems to come down to how high the 829 00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:36,400 Speaker 1: temperature will rise and how quickly within the next hundred years. 830 00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:39,360 Speaker 1: But it does seem like there are current parts of 831 00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:43,000 Speaker 1: the world that are inhabited that will no longer be habitable. 832 00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:46,040 Speaker 1: But the good news again is that there are efforts 833 00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:49,560 Speaker 1: in place. There are plans in place that can mitigate 834 00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:53,560 Speaker 1: the effects, that can slow it down if we have 835 00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:56,160 Speaker 1: the willingness to stick to them and to and to 836 00:47:56,239 --> 00:48:00,040 Speaker 1: insist that they be inactive. Yeah, exactly. So there's a 837 00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:03,200 Speaker 1: matter of policy involved here. There's a matter of communication. 838 00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:05,480 Speaker 1: I I definitely think go back and listen to the 839 00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:08,640 Speaker 1: episode that Robert and Joe did on Science Communication Breakdowns, 840 00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:12,240 Speaker 1: because I think that is crucial right now with this stuff, 841 00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:15,680 Speaker 1: because hey, the sun thing, that's a billion plus years 842 00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:18,759 Speaker 1: off right this we're talking about a hundred years. All right, 843 00:48:18,800 --> 00:48:20,879 Speaker 1: We're gonna take one last break, and when we come back, 844 00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:25,000 Speaker 1: we're going to discuss one final threat to the habitability 845 00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:27,279 Speaker 1: of the planet. And I imagine you can guess what 846 00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:32,000 Speaker 1: it is. Thank Alright, we're back. So there, of course, 847 00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:34,919 Speaker 1: a number a number of other scenarios to consider here, 848 00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:39,840 Speaker 1: various technological threats. AI is certainly a crucial one and 849 00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:41,840 Speaker 1: one that we're hoping to explore in a future episode 850 00:48:41,880 --> 00:48:43,839 Speaker 1: of Stuff to Blow Your Mind. But then there's there's 851 00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:47,840 Speaker 1: also good old nuclear war to consider. So okay, combined, 852 00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:51,319 Speaker 1: we're talking about Skynet and Judgment Day. Yeah, but but 853 00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:54,880 Speaker 1: let's let's just focus on on just the sheer destructive 854 00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:57,160 Speaker 1: power of nuclear weapons for a minute, and the sheer 855 00:48:57,239 --> 00:49:00,239 Speaker 1: number of nuclear weapons. This brings us back to our 856 00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:03,160 Speaker 1: earlier episode from this year about the doomsday clubs. Yes, 857 00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:07,200 Speaker 1: indeed it does so. According to the Federation of American Scientists, 858 00:49:07,719 --> 00:49:11,720 Speaker 1: as of early two thousand seventeen, there are still fourteen thousand, 859 00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:14,799 Speaker 1: nine hundred nuclear weapons in the world. Now you can 860 00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:18,719 Speaker 1: compare that to the maximum number we've ever had, and 861 00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:22,840 Speaker 1: that was six where there's we're seventy thousand, three hundred. 862 00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:29,839 Speaker 1: But even because Superman threw them all into the sun down. Um. 863 00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:33,200 Speaker 1: So The important thing, though, is no matter how many 864 00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:35,879 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons you have, even a small scale nuclear war 865 00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:40,960 Speaker 1: would have intense effects on climate. So NASA scientist Luke 866 00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:45,400 Speaker 1: omen He's predicted that the detonation of one hundred hiroshiumist 867 00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:48,840 Speaker 1: sized bombs would inject upwards of five mega tons of 868 00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:52,000 Speaker 1: black carbon into the upper tropic sphere and result in 869 00:49:52,080 --> 00:49:54,879 Speaker 1: a one degree celsius or one point eight degree fare 870 00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:58,359 Speaker 1: kneit fall over the three years to follow, and for 871 00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:01,920 Speaker 1: two to four years afterward, rainfall would decrease around the 872 00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:05,919 Speaker 1: world by ten percent, and then larger exchanges it gets 873 00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:11,120 Speaker 1: even more terrifying. So this is this is this is interesting. 874 00:50:11,120 --> 00:50:16,279 Speaker 1: In Lost Alamos Laboratory, scientists they predicted that the detonation 875 00:50:16,320 --> 00:50:19,239 Speaker 1: of a mere ten to one hundred super bombs what 876 00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:23,719 Speaker 1: we'd call a hydrogen bomb today or a thermonuclear weapon. Uh, 877 00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:27,759 Speaker 1: they said that that would be enough to to do 878 00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:32,560 Speaker 1: just significant um irreparable damage to the planet. Um. So 879 00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:35,640 Speaker 1: not only like as we're recording this, like we're in 880 00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:38,800 Speaker 1: the middle of again like heated rhetoric with North Korea 881 00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:41,520 Speaker 1: about nuclear weapons, right, and like not only are we 882 00:50:41,560 --> 00:50:46,239 Speaker 1: worrying here about the fear of nuclear threat, but we're 883 00:50:46,280 --> 00:50:50,359 Speaker 1: also like we we need to worry about like the 884 00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:52,960 Speaker 1: effect that this is going to have on the planet afterwards, 885 00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:55,239 Speaker 1: Like what what's the world gonna look like? Afterwards? And 886 00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:58,440 Speaker 1: this has been this has been all a longstanding uh 887 00:50:59,600 --> 00:51:03,000 Speaker 1: warn from scientists. So one issue here is that you 888 00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:05,960 Speaker 1: have so you have one hundred mega tons of fission 889 00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:08,520 Speaker 1: per bomb, you have one hundred bombs. That's enough to 890 00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:12,920 Speaker 1: generate ten thousand mega tons necessary to raise the background 891 00:51:13,080 --> 00:51:16,520 Speaker 1: radioactivity level to dangerous levels. According to the nineteen fifty 892 00:51:16,560 --> 00:51:20,720 Speaker 1: three Project Sunshine study, the exact predictions as to how 893 00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:23,520 Speaker 1: a nuclear war would impact the environment these have varied 894 00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:28,440 Speaker 1: over the years. Using modern climate models, scientist Brian Tune 895 00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:32,840 Speaker 1: and Alan Roebok, they theorized that even a regional nuclear 896 00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:37,560 Speaker 1: war would cause a marginal nuclear winter for everyone nuclear winner. 897 00:51:37,560 --> 00:51:41,360 Speaker 1: To remind everybody this, the idea here is that the 898 00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:45,120 Speaker 1: the the mass the burnt carbon ejected into the atmosphere 899 00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:48,680 Speaker 1: by these explosions, by that by the burnings of cities 900 00:51:48,719 --> 00:51:52,000 Speaker 1: and forests, that this would have essentially shroud the Earth 901 00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:55,520 Speaker 1: and reduced the amount of sunlight reaching the earth. You 902 00:51:55,560 --> 00:51:58,239 Speaker 1: know that this is an aside just to bring a 903 00:51:58,239 --> 00:52:02,239 Speaker 1: little levity, I guess to the but so stranger things. 904 00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:04,080 Speaker 1: We've talked a lot about it on the show before. 905 00:52:04,080 --> 00:52:06,080 Speaker 1: Everybody's talking about it right now because the second season 906 00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:09,920 Speaker 1: just came out. The upside down is essentially like a 907 00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:13,479 Speaker 1: nightmare scenario of of post fallout, right, because you're looking 908 00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:16,960 Speaker 1: at everything's blacked out, there's constant it looks like Dan 909 00:52:17,080 --> 00:52:19,279 Speaker 1: Driff is kind of falling from the sky. But it 910 00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:22,520 Speaker 1: does have a nuclear waste land kind of feel to it. Yeah. 911 00:52:23,040 --> 00:52:27,640 Speaker 1: According to the two thousand seven findings from Robot and Tune, 912 00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:30,719 Speaker 1: they said they did Indian Pakistan, for example, where did 913 00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:34,120 Speaker 1: each launch fifty nuclear weapons at each other. The entire 914 00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:37,160 Speaker 1: globe would experience ten years of smoke clouds and a 915 00:52:37,239 --> 00:52:41,200 Speaker 1: three year temperature drop of approximately uh two point five 916 00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:49,280 Speaker 1: degrees fahrenheit one celsius. What this is like real gallows 917 00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:52,040 Speaker 1: humor here. But like, so is that going to counteract 918 00:52:52,080 --> 00:52:55,240 Speaker 1: climate change? Then? Um, you know, I've I've seen people 919 00:52:56,160 --> 00:53:00,239 Speaker 1: make that joke in the past, and I'm and you 920 00:53:00,239 --> 00:53:02,719 Speaker 1: can make the argument, yeah, that it's like one bad 921 00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:05,960 Speaker 1: thing counts the other bad thing. But but but then 922 00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:08,760 Speaker 1: you have all these other effects too. I mean, obviously 923 00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:14,080 Speaker 1: the loss of life involved the radio active pollution. Uh 924 00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:16,440 Speaker 1: So I think it's very it's very difficult to make 925 00:53:16,520 --> 00:53:20,720 Speaker 1: up a straight faced case for that. But this study, 926 00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:23,440 Speaker 1: this two thousand and seven study, uh, this was one 927 00:53:23,880 --> 00:53:27,200 Speaker 1: of the factors that the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist 928 00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:30,200 Speaker 1: took into account when they advanced the doomsday clock two 929 00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:32,920 Speaker 1: minutes closer to midnight at the time. Yeah, which is, 930 00:53:33,080 --> 00:53:34,840 Speaker 1: you know, part of what we were talking about earlier 931 00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:37,839 Speaker 1: this year. All right, So we've just presented you with 932 00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:40,760 Speaker 1: all the scenarios we could think of, from the sun 933 00:53:41,040 --> 00:53:45,839 Speaker 1: to asteroids hitting us, to climate change in nuclear war. Yeah, 934 00:53:45,840 --> 00:53:47,239 Speaker 1: I know, Grant, there are a lot of a lot 935 00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:49,640 Speaker 1: of possibilities that we didn't get into. We didn't get 936 00:53:49,640 --> 00:53:53,360 Speaker 1: into your gray goose scenario, your green goose scenario, or 937 00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:57,719 Speaker 1: some of the more exotic ideas. Uh, you know, destruction 938 00:53:57,880 --> 00:54:00,719 Speaker 1: by an alien force which is a planet, things of 939 00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:03,200 Speaker 1: that nature. Uh. And there are other there are also 940 00:54:03,239 --> 00:54:05,680 Speaker 1: a hope there are a number of other cosmic scenarios 941 00:54:05,719 --> 00:54:07,680 Speaker 1: as well that have been thrown out. But I feel 942 00:54:07,680 --> 00:54:10,120 Speaker 1: like this gives us a nice overview of the long 943 00:54:10,160 --> 00:54:13,800 Speaker 1: torrent term, the short term, uh, and the random events, 944 00:54:14,120 --> 00:54:19,080 Speaker 1: the sort of irreversible cosmic threats, as well as the 945 00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:23,400 Speaker 1: the man made of threats of nuclear war and climate change. 946 00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:27,759 Speaker 1: So what should we believe the worst case scenarios that 947 00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:31,120 Speaker 1: are prevented in front of us, or the hopeful messages 948 00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:34,319 Speaker 1: that will get human beings to hopefully be more proactive 949 00:54:34,320 --> 00:54:36,960 Speaker 1: about their part in this. I mean, the big takeaway 950 00:54:37,000 --> 00:54:40,319 Speaker 1: I've got from this is that we need to be 951 00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:45,200 Speaker 1: even more proactive about climate change than even the Paris Accords. 952 00:54:45,239 --> 00:54:48,560 Speaker 1: And nuclear weapons are a much bigger problem than in 953 00:54:48,680 --> 00:54:52,560 Speaker 1: terms of just uh war, right, Like they're they're going 954 00:54:52,600 --> 00:54:56,440 Speaker 1: to have like an overall horrible effect on the entire planet. Well, 955 00:54:56,440 --> 00:54:57,759 Speaker 1: I think one way to look at it is to 956 00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:01,040 Speaker 1: think of it in terms of per and all human health. 957 00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:05,160 Speaker 1: And this is an example that I think gives hope 958 00:55:05,200 --> 00:55:09,520 Speaker 1: and also is um concerning too, because you could think 959 00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:12,319 Speaker 1: about all, right, so worst case scenarios are presented for 960 00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:15,480 Speaker 1: human health all the time. You know, if you if 961 00:55:15,520 --> 00:55:18,839 Speaker 1: you drink NonStop or and or smoke NonStop, then this 962 00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:20,600 Speaker 1: is what will happen to your body. Here are some 963 00:55:20,719 --> 00:55:23,400 Speaker 1: examples of what has happened to other bodies, and in 964 00:55:23,440 --> 00:55:25,480 Speaker 1: some cases those can be helpful. They can say, oh, well, 965 00:55:25,600 --> 00:55:28,279 Speaker 1: I better not do that that I'm gonna I'm gonna 966 00:55:28,280 --> 00:55:31,080 Speaker 1: cut it off. I'm gonna cut this level of my 967 00:55:31,120 --> 00:55:33,840 Speaker 1: destructive behavior off at this point so that I don't 968 00:55:33,880 --> 00:55:37,440 Speaker 1: get to there. And you know, that that can that 969 00:55:37,480 --> 00:55:40,839 Speaker 1: could be helpful for for human society if we realize, yeah, 970 00:55:40,840 --> 00:55:43,359 Speaker 1: we definitely don't want to get to this point, so 971 00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:45,680 Speaker 1: let's figure let's figure out a way to at least 972 00:55:45,840 --> 00:55:49,239 Speaker 1: scale back and uh, you know we've seen that, say 973 00:55:49,280 --> 00:55:53,319 Speaker 1: with with the with the reduction of nuclear warheads in 974 00:55:53,360 --> 00:55:55,879 Speaker 1: the world, even though we still have way too many, 975 00:55:56,080 --> 00:55:59,160 Speaker 1: especially when you think like the relative short amount of 976 00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:01,960 Speaker 1: time that it's actually been in which we got rid 977 00:56:01,960 --> 00:56:04,480 Speaker 1: of like uh doing this off to the top of 978 00:56:04,480 --> 00:56:07,319 Speaker 1: my head, but basically sixty warheads. Yeah, yeah, I mean, 979 00:56:07,360 --> 00:56:09,400 Speaker 1: it's it's it's impressive, even though there's a lot more 980 00:56:09,440 --> 00:56:10,920 Speaker 1: work to do. I mean, but the other side of 981 00:56:10,920 --> 00:56:13,800 Speaker 1: the coin is that we see countless examples of human 982 00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:16,960 Speaker 1: health where when presented with the data, we still don't 983 00:56:17,000 --> 00:56:20,960 Speaker 1: do anything, you know, because we're still so shortsighted in 984 00:56:21,200 --> 00:56:24,000 Speaker 1: how we interact with our lives and that applies to 985 00:56:24,040 --> 00:56:27,480 Speaker 1: our personal lives as well as as globally. So we 986 00:56:27,640 --> 00:56:31,280 Speaker 1: could think, yeah, climate climate change is a threat, nuclear 987 00:56:31,320 --> 00:56:34,120 Speaker 1: weapons are a threat. I hope somebody does something about 988 00:56:34,160 --> 00:56:36,520 Speaker 1: that one day. It's kind of like saying, yeah, one 989 00:56:36,560 --> 00:56:38,279 Speaker 1: of these days, I'll get into shape and start eating 990 00:56:38,360 --> 00:56:40,920 Speaker 1: right right, Yeah, that's what it makes me think of 991 00:56:41,400 --> 00:56:44,799 Speaker 1: from personal perspective. You know, maybe I need to lay 992 00:56:44,840 --> 00:56:47,239 Speaker 1: off the pizza. Also, maybe I need to lay off 993 00:56:47,280 --> 00:56:50,920 Speaker 1: the carbon emissions. All of this reminds me of that 994 00:56:50,960 --> 00:56:53,359 Speaker 1: episode I'm gonna circle back around the one that we 995 00:56:53,440 --> 00:56:57,799 Speaker 1: did way back in May on mass extinctions. Uh. In 996 00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:00,440 Speaker 1: that episode, I talked a lot about this book by 997 00:57:00,440 --> 00:57:04,120 Speaker 1: Anneleine Knew. It's called Scatter adapt and remember how humans 998 00:57:04,160 --> 00:57:08,440 Speaker 1: will survive mass extinction, And her argument there is that 999 00:57:08,480 --> 00:57:12,480 Speaker 1: we need to a scatter from Earth in the long term, 1000 00:57:12,719 --> 00:57:17,560 Speaker 1: be adapt to climate change and see remember our history 1001 00:57:17,760 --> 00:57:21,720 Speaker 1: so that we can ensure our species survival. This reminds 1002 00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:24,920 Speaker 1: me of the Expanse, which we've done episodes on as well. Right, 1003 00:57:25,120 --> 00:57:27,560 Speaker 1: So where do we go? Well, NASA conducted a two 1004 00:57:27,640 --> 00:57:30,400 Speaker 1: hundred million dollar study in the year two thousand that 1005 00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:34,640 Speaker 1: reported a colony could be dug under the Moon's surface 1006 00:57:34,760 --> 00:57:38,479 Speaker 1: and covered to protect its residents. Now we're talking about 1007 00:57:38,480 --> 00:57:41,160 Speaker 1: short term here. Remember we talked about way in the future, 1008 00:57:41,240 --> 00:57:43,720 Speaker 1: the Moon isn't going to be an ideal place for 1009 00:57:43,800 --> 00:57:46,000 Speaker 1: us to go to. But if not our Moon, then 1010 00:57:46,040 --> 00:57:50,920 Speaker 1: there's other possibilities such as the moons of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, 1011 00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:57,160 Speaker 1: Neptune or Mars might be a possibility, or even more possible, 1012 00:57:57,480 --> 00:58:01,600 Speaker 1: an orbital habitat that's constructed from resources that we extract 1013 00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:05,760 Speaker 1: from near Earth asteroids. But again, you're getting closer and 1014 00:58:05,800 --> 00:58:09,800 Speaker 1: closer to Kardashio of scale level that we just don't 1015 00:58:09,840 --> 00:58:13,200 Speaker 1: have that kind of technology right now. Yeah, I mean again, 1016 00:58:13,240 --> 00:58:16,880 Speaker 1: it comes back to the Goldilocks UH conundrum though, where 1017 00:58:17,720 --> 00:58:19,640 Speaker 1: you have all these things that are just right on Earth, 1018 00:58:19,640 --> 00:58:23,080 Speaker 1: and when we start expanding outward and trying to imagine 1019 00:58:23,080 --> 00:58:28,920 Speaker 1: ourselves establishing humanity on other planets or other cosmic bodies, 1020 00:58:29,240 --> 00:58:33,480 Speaker 1: we're faced with just how imperfect all of our options 1021 00:58:33,520 --> 00:58:37,160 Speaker 1: are compared to what we evolve to thrive in. How 1022 00:58:37,240 --> 00:58:39,720 Speaker 1: much more work it's going to be too, and then 1023 00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:42,640 Speaker 1: and and how how does that work stack up with 1024 00:58:42,720 --> 00:58:46,720 Speaker 1: the work we're faced with now to just add some 1025 00:58:46,840 --> 00:58:50,800 Speaker 1: more years to the planet shelf life? You know, like, 1026 00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:53,960 Speaker 1: what is what? What's what's easier? I mean, granted, neither 1027 00:58:54,000 --> 00:58:56,800 Speaker 1: of these things are are easy. Both all these things 1028 00:58:56,800 --> 00:59:01,320 Speaker 1: are hard. But is it easier to to reduce the 1029 00:59:01,400 --> 00:59:04,680 Speaker 1: number of nuclear warheads in the planet to uh, to 1030 00:59:04,720 --> 00:59:07,760 Speaker 1: admitigate the effects of climate change, or to figure out 1031 00:59:07,840 --> 00:59:10,960 Speaker 1: how to establish a new Earth on it, like a 1032 00:59:11,200 --> 00:59:16,160 Speaker 1: radiation scathed planet elsewhere in our solar system. Yeah, that 1033 00:59:16,280 --> 00:59:19,480 Speaker 1: is a very good point. Yeah, when you weigh the 1034 00:59:19,520 --> 00:59:23,440 Speaker 1: cost benefit analysis there, it really, you know, from a 1035 00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:28,120 Speaker 1: capitalist perspective, becomes obvious what the answer is. There's also 1036 00:59:28,160 --> 00:59:30,160 Speaker 1: the question which we always bring up on the show, 1037 00:59:30,280 --> 00:59:33,280 Speaker 1: what if we've become transhuman? You know, we could develop 1038 00:59:33,320 --> 00:59:36,480 Speaker 1: technology or genetics that could change us into another species 1039 00:59:36,520 --> 00:59:41,640 Speaker 1: that could totally survive these changes. Well, okay, Wallace Wells, 1040 00:59:41,640 --> 00:59:44,560 Speaker 1: though this is interesting. This is an interesting one to 1041 00:59:44,680 --> 00:59:47,240 Speaker 1: leave you with, he said in that piece, And again 1042 00:59:47,320 --> 00:59:50,200 Speaker 1: remember his piece was a little scaremongery. He spoke to 1043 00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:55,240 Speaker 1: some scientists with a point about the Fermi paradox, which 1044 00:59:55,320 --> 00:59:57,120 Speaker 1: is another thing we talked about on the show a lot, 1045 00:59:57,640 --> 01:00:01,000 Speaker 1: and they said, maybe the reason we have an encountered 1046 01:00:01,080 --> 01:00:05,440 Speaker 1: intelligent life yet is because the natural lifespan of a 1047 01:00:05,520 --> 01:00:10,080 Speaker 1: civilization is only several thousand years old. Remember I started 1048 01:00:10,080 --> 01:00:12,960 Speaker 1: this off by telling uh the stats on how long 1049 01:00:13,040 --> 01:00:16,840 Speaker 1: mammals are known to survive for. That's not talking about civilization. 1050 01:00:17,160 --> 01:00:21,160 Speaker 1: Civilization brings with it its own complications that namely the 1051 01:00:21,280 --> 01:00:26,240 Speaker 1: risk of self destruction. Yeah, so maybe civilizations have emerged, 1052 01:00:26,600 --> 01:00:29,760 Speaker 1: developed and then burned up, but it's all been too 1053 01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:33,479 Speaker 1: fast for them to ever find one another. Uh So, 1054 01:00:33,960 --> 01:00:37,240 Speaker 1: while we can start seeing the devastating effects from climate 1055 01:00:37,360 --> 01:00:40,840 Speaker 1: change and as soon as the next one hundred years, 1056 01:00:41,600 --> 01:00:45,520 Speaker 1: it seems like the actual planet won't be uninhabitable to 1057 01:00:45,680 --> 01:00:50,600 Speaker 1: us for five hundred million years, right, Like, the climate 1058 01:00:50,680 --> 01:00:53,600 Speaker 1: change effects are going to be bad, but there will 1059 01:00:53,640 --> 01:00:56,160 Speaker 1: be parts of the planet we can live on. It's 1060 01:00:56,200 --> 01:00:59,320 Speaker 1: just going to be a matter of even more disparity 1061 01:00:59,320 --> 01:01:01,919 Speaker 1: than we're already looking at here, right because the rich 1062 01:01:02,360 --> 01:01:04,920 Speaker 1: are obviously gonna want to live in those parts that 1063 01:01:05,000 --> 01:01:07,920 Speaker 1: are nicer. So it's the it's less the prospect of 1064 01:01:07,960 --> 01:01:12,880 Speaker 1: an uninhabitable earth in the prospect of a less habitable earth, 1065 01:01:13,040 --> 01:01:16,080 Speaker 1: I think so, And that can be pretty, uh pretty 1066 01:01:16,160 --> 01:01:20,080 Speaker 1: terrifying in its own way. Absolutely, Okay, I hope we 1067 01:01:20,160 --> 01:01:23,800 Speaker 1: did this topic some justice. It was a little bit rough. 1068 01:01:24,200 --> 01:01:26,680 Speaker 1: They're going through all of those statistics and just kind 1069 01:01:26,680 --> 01:01:30,120 Speaker 1: of looking looking at the sort of damocles hanging over 1070 01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:32,960 Speaker 1: all of our heads. But I'm glad we did it. 1071 01:01:33,000 --> 01:01:35,640 Speaker 1: I think I think I learned something. Yeah, Yeah, so 1072 01:01:35,880 --> 01:01:37,600 Speaker 1: we'd love to hear from everyone out there. What are 1073 01:01:37,640 --> 01:01:41,400 Speaker 1: your thoughts on these various threats to the planet we 1074 01:01:41,480 --> 01:01:43,120 Speaker 1: call home. You can get in touch with us a 1075 01:01:43,200 --> 01:01:45,640 Speaker 1: number of different ways. Find us on social media. We 1076 01:01:45,720 --> 01:01:50,800 Speaker 1: are on Facebook, Twitter, Tumbler, Instagram, uh who knows where else, 1077 01:01:51,160 --> 01:01:54,040 Speaker 1: but on Facebook. We also have a discussion group called 1078 01:01:54,040 --> 01:01:57,000 Speaker 1: the Discussion Module. You can find that, join it, interact 1079 01:01:57,040 --> 01:02:00,480 Speaker 1: with other listeners as well as the host as the selves, 1080 01:02:00,960 --> 01:02:03,320 Speaker 1: and uh hey, stuff to blow your Mind dot com. 1081 01:02:03,440 --> 01:02:05,400 Speaker 1: That's the mothership. That's what we will find all the 1082 01:02:05,400 --> 01:02:07,600 Speaker 1: podcast episodes, going all the way back to the very beginning. 1083 01:02:07,640 --> 01:02:11,160 Speaker 1: You'll find videos, you will find blog posts and links 1084 01:02:11,160 --> 01:02:13,440 Speaker 1: out to those social media accounts we've mentioned. And if 1085 01:02:13,480 --> 01:02:15,560 Speaker 1: you want to write us a letter the old fashioned way, 1086 01:02:15,640 --> 01:02:17,640 Speaker 1: you can type us an email at blow the Mind 1087 01:02:17,720 --> 01:02:29,040 Speaker 1: at how stuff works dot com for more on this 1088 01:02:29,240 --> 01:02:31,720 Speaker 1: and thousands of other topics. Does it how stuff works 1089 01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:54,960 Speaker 1: dot com