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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App,

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We always like to start the day and start the

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Speaker 2: week with someone with broad perspective. Right now joining us

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Speaker 2: is Robert Kaplan. We're thrilled that he could join us today.

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Speaker 2: Forever associated with his Goldman Sachs, but his public service

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Speaker 2: noted to the nation is the president of the federserv

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Speaker 2: Bank of Dallas, and just a really broad view of

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Speaker 2: where we are. Thrilled Roberts, you would begin our Monday

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Speaker 2: with us, where are we right now? In a broad sense?

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Speaker 2: Can our institutions serve vibe this onslaught of uncertainty?

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Speaker 3: They can survive, But we've got a number of weeks

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Speaker 3: more to go to get through this fog. And in particular,

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Speaker 3: you know, there's two or three big changes going on.

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Speaker 3: There's the government spending cuts, there's the changes in immigration

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Speaker 3: policy which are having even a bigger effect than are

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Speaker 3: being discussed.

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Speaker 4: And on tariffs. The thing that we're just not sure about.

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Speaker 3: Is the Trump administration intending to negotiate tariffs down to zero,

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Speaker 3: ten percent, twenty percent. I noticed over the weekend they

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Speaker 3: said that they want to settle out at twenty to

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Speaker 3: fifty percent. And those are dramatically different outcomes.

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Speaker 2: Your charm, Robert Kaplan among You know, the people think

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Speaker 2: that everybody within the Caplan school comes from six zip

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Speaker 2: codes somewhere in the vicinity of Boston or New York

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Speaker 2: or Washington. You are a brethren of Kansas, out of

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Speaker 2: the University of Kansas. This makes you different. You understand

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Speaker 2: the span of America. I'm looking at a statistic where

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Speaker 2: Kansas has two point three billion worth of products in

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Speaker 2: aerospace to the rest of the world. How it threat

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Speaker 2: is Kansas from this upset in Washington.

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Speaker 3: Well, it is threatened, and it's got a lot of farmers,

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Speaker 3: big agricultural economy, and our farmers rely very heavily on

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Speaker 3: foreign markets China for an example, And so there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of concern in Kansas.

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Speaker 4: And also there are a lot of.

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Speaker 3: Small businesses and bigger businesses I'm seeing are having They

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Speaker 3: don't love the uncertainty, but they have a lot of

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Speaker 3: levers to manage small businesses are telling me that they're

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Speaker 3: at risk if this goes on for a number of

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Speaker 3: more months. There are many of them are thinking that

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Speaker 3: they won't stay in business.

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Speaker 2: Paul, over the weekend buried in the advis I know

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Speaker 2: you weren't paying attention. At least it wasn't paying attention.

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Speaker 2: China canceled twelve thousand metric tons of United States porkshipmits.

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Speaker 2: Oh that's a lot of bacon.

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Speaker 5: That's a lot of bacon there, and I think we're

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Speaker 5: going to see more of that, Robert. When you have

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Speaker 5: discussions with your clients, Robert, with your bankers at Goldman Sachs,

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Speaker 5: is discussion about a recession is coming or whether it's coming,

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Speaker 5: and whether we can get through this. What's the real

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Speaker 5: economic fallout that you're hearing from your clients and bankers.

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Speaker 3: I think people see that in certain sectors there's already slowing,

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Speaker 3: so travel leisure, there's less tourism that we know, Shipping

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Speaker 3: we know is weak, and you were talking about earlier

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Speaker 3: and in other parts the sentiment is very negative, but

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Speaker 3: we don't see a severe decline. I think most people

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Speaker 3: I talked to are expected further slowing.

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Speaker 4: It's not a fade to complete.

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Speaker 3: But I think they're worried that there's been pre ordering

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Speaker 3: it's artificially bolster GDP recently, and that there's a little

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Speaker 3: bit of a cliff coming and a more substantial decline

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Speaker 3: in growth. But they don't know, but they're preparing for

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Speaker 3: a more severe slowing.

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Speaker 5: In that regard. Robert, what do you think that the

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Speaker 5: Federal Reserve can do should do?

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Speaker 4: I think they should be making.

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Speaker 3: Clear, as I think Jpal did a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 3: that they're still very focused on fighting inflation. You don't

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Speaker 3: want inflation expectations to get de anchored unanchored here, and

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Speaker 3: that's what he was trying to do. And in the otherwise,

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Speaker 3: don't make predictions. Don't talk about June or not June

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Speaker 3: because they don't know. We don't even know what the

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Speaker 3: tariff policies are. Ultimately, keep your options open, and don't

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Speaker 3: try to be a prognosticator, be a risk manager.

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Speaker 2: Formerly with the Dallas Fed and now at Globin Sex,

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Speaker 2: Robert keppan with us to start as strong this morning

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Speaker 2: and this extended conversation. I mean, I guess we could

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Speaker 2: try it out, Robert Kepp. When the Fisher equation the

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Speaker 2: Fisher hypothesis rather of central bank theory. But it does

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Speaker 2: come down to lagging or x post or after the fact.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that's the only fallback the central bank has.

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Speaker 2: They have to wait and see the labor market crack

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Speaker 2: before they act, right.

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Speaker 3: Well, they need to see more evidence in the hard

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Speaker 3: data of slowing. And also they don't know and we

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Speaker 3: don't know this cost shock we're about to get how.

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Speaker 4: Inflation areas are going to be.

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Speaker 3: The irony is, up until January twentieth, goods were disinflating globally.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot of global overcapacity for manufacturing, and the

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Speaker 3: service sector was where the inflation issue is. Now it's changing,

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Speaker 3: and so the Fed's going to have to see more evidence.

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Speaker 3: And in fairness to them, it's hard to make policy

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Speaker 3: forecasts or judgments when you don't know yet what the

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Speaker 3: policies are, and they don't.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Paul, should we do a chart on Bloomberg Radio?

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Speaker 4: Now that works?

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Speaker 2: I think a chart works with Robert Captain And you

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Speaker 2: know where I'm going with this, Robert Kaplan. I'm going

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Speaker 2: to the ten year real yield. We are in between

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Speaker 2: e within the dispersion folks and the answer is at

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Speaker 2: one point nine nine percent, Paul, it really begins to

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Speaker 2: show this economic slow down down at one point eight zero.

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Speaker 2: So we're we are distant from that identifying.

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Speaker 5: Of a slowing Yeah, we're certainly seeing a GDP forecast

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Speaker 5: on Wall Street coming down, Robert. When you talk to

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Speaker 5: your corporate clients at Goldman Sachs, what are they doing

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Speaker 5: about some of their longer term plans, whether it's long

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Speaker 5: term capbecks, whether it's m are they hitting the pause

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Speaker 5: button or are they trying to move forward?

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Speaker 3: They're mainly hitting the pause button. They're not canceling plans,

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Speaker 3: but they're pausing them. And the other thing they're doing

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Speaker 3: is and again, these tariffs have come very abruptly. So

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Speaker 3: many CEOs have told me, listen, if I had six

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Speaker 3: to twelve months, I couldn't sell, I wouldn't solve.

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Speaker 4: This, but I could make moves.

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Speaker 3: But this is happening now, and so they're re looking

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Speaker 3: at their plans for supply chains and logistics. And on

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Speaker 3: the investing side, we are seeing people who started the

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Speaker 3: year wanting to overallocate to the dollar are now saying, yeah,

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Speaker 3: maybe we're.

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Speaker 4: Overallocated to the dollar.

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Speaker 3: They're gone they've done a one eighty and they're starting

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Speaker 3: to look at broader alternatives away.

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Speaker 4: From the dollar.

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Speaker 3: That doesn't mean that that's what they're going to be

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Speaker 3: doing six months from now. But there again, they're concerned,

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Speaker 3: and it's more than tariffs. That they don't understand the

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Speaker 3: US economy and US institutional framework as well as they

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Speaker 3: thought they did, and that's giving them some pause.

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Speaker 2: Should we go to the Dallas FED with Robert Captain?

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Speaker 2: I think we can do that, Robert Kaplan. As you know,

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Speaker 2: each FED has its own characteristics, its own past. The

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Speaker 2: Robert McTeer Robert Kaplan pass of the Dallas FED, but

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Speaker 2: it's on the border as well. Not speaking for the

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Speaker 2: Dallas FED, I want to make clear that mister doctor

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Speaker 2: Kaplan doesn't do that, folks, But Robert Kaplan to be

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Speaker 2: clear here, how do you perceive our tension with Mexico

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Speaker 2: as you look at all the research of your Dallas FED.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so, Texas, as you note, is the largest exporting

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Speaker 3: state in the country. The relationship between Texas and Mexico

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Speaker 3: in terms of logistics and supply chain arrangements as well

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Speaker 3: as people by the way from Mexico coming across the

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Speaker 3: border at a shop in Texas, that those relationships are essential.

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Speaker 3: And this is why for many companies domicile not just

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Speaker 3: in Texas but in the country. The being able to

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Speaker 3: send goods back and forth across the border with Mexico

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Speaker 3: as well as Canada has been essential to domiciling in

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Speaker 3: Texas and in the United States and making sure we're

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Speaker 3: globally competitive. And people don't realize that if you want

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Speaker 3: to encourage reshoring to the US and you want to

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Speaker 3: take share from Asia, you would want to preserve those

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Speaker 3: logistics and the chain arrangements.

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Speaker 2: So, with all your experience, Robert Kaplan, how does the

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Speaker 2: how do the people around the president, including a Secretary Treasury,

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Speaker 2: allow him to save face and walk back from his

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Speaker 2: mckinleyite tariffs.

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Speaker 3: So I think the nub of the issue right now

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Speaker 3: is it's unclear how much costs savings we're getting out

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Speaker 3: of doge okay, and I think that's part of this discussion.

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Speaker 3: And I think they're still a little bit wetted that

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Speaker 3: we're going to get the offset, We're going to get

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Speaker 3: revenue from tariffs, and that'll help us in the de leveraging,

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Speaker 3: it'll help us justify bigger tax cut, and I think

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Speaker 3: all the studies I've looked at have shown that every

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Speaker 3: dollar of tariff revenue you get, you give it back

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Speaker 3: a portion of it.

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Speaker 4: In terms of lower growth and damaging groups.

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Speaker 3: But that's the key to I think why they're clinging

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Speaker 3: to these tariff tariffs at higher levels, not at zero,

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Speaker 3: and I think they may be better served letting go

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Speaker 3: a little bit on that concept.

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Speaker 2: In the zeitgeist this morning, Paul Sweeney is a bar shirt.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to give credit to the Tax Foundation showing

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Speaker 2: the tencen see revenue build from tariffs versus the ginormous

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Speaker 2: revenue that comes in from income taxes. Right, it's a

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Speaker 2: sobering charge.

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Speaker 5: It is Robert as former president of the Dallas FED,

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Speaker 5: you have an appreciation for immigration, legal and illegal, being

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Speaker 5: in that part of the country here, What do you

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Speaker 5: believe the impact of this reduction of illegal immigration coming

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Speaker 5: across the border will due to the US labor market,

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Speaker 5: because I'm not sure really folks are clear on how

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Speaker 5: that works.

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Speaker 3: So of the one of the things I would say,

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Speaker 3: over the last four years and during the Trump administration,

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Speaker 3: we had in excess of a million workers a year

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Speaker 3: immigrants who came in and joined the workforce. It appears

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Speaker 3: now this year that could be in the low hundreds

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Speaker 3: of thousands. We can't tell yet. So that's going to

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Speaker 3: slow workforce growth. That slows GDP, it tightens the workforce.

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Speaker 3: But the bigger thing going on that I would call out,

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Speaker 3: there are millions of undocumented immigrants in this country in

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Speaker 3: the workforce who are unsure of their status. And I'm

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Speaker 3: hearing from their employers that some number of them are

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Speaker 3: not coming into work and they're certainly not shopping and

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Speaker 3: because they're concerned. And so that is making the labor force,

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Speaker 3: at least in the service sector tighter, and it will

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Speaker 3: slow GDP growth, and it's probably affecting consumer spending.

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Speaker 2: Robert Kaplan, generous of you to be with us this morning.

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Speaker 2: Vice Chairman Goldin Sex, thank you so much, and again

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Speaker 2: his public service at the Dallas FED.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 2: With a shocking statistic. Sephanie Roth joins us right now,

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Speaker 2: you say, may second, the April report is where the

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Speaker 2: job economy breaks and we only get ninety thousand non

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Speaker 2: farm payrolls.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm surprised how below consensus we are for this print.

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Speaker 6: Combination of seasonal factors, the weather, the early jobs print,

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Speaker 6: and then on top of that all the tariff uncertainty.

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Speaker 6: We're meaningfully below consent.

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Speaker 2: Is where are they to cut to the chase? I mean, folks,

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Speaker 2: this is really important. Where's everybody wrong? Who thinks it's

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Speaker 2: June or July where the Stephanie Roth number kicks in.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, and I think we're going to get a bigger

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Speaker 6: job's headwind in the next couple of months, but it

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Speaker 6: should probably start to leak in to this print. There's

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Speaker 6: a ton of uncertainty. It's hard to know whether you

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Speaker 6: should hire or not. It's hard to know whether you

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Speaker 6: should invest. And then on top of that you do

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Speaker 6: have some funky things about this print that put additional

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Speaker 6: downward pressure.

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Speaker 5: Stephanie. So we think about some of the economic uncertainties

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Speaker 5: that may result from higher tariffs. For you, is it

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Speaker 5: more growth or inflation? Where do you think we're going

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Speaker 5: to see it?

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Speaker 6: I think we'll start so I think we'll see from

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Speaker 6: a growth perspective, we'll see it in the jobs prints,

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Speaker 6: and then from an inflation perspective, we'll probably we probably

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Speaker 6: won't see it until say the June print, So things

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Speaker 6: like pre tariff sales, a lot of the inventory is

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Speaker 6: going to get worked down, and then companies are going

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Speaker 6: to start to raise prices once the new inventory feeds in.

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Speaker 6: But by the way, they haven't really been importing that

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Speaker 6: much from China because terif rates are well over one

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Speaker 6: hundred and forty one hundred and forty percent, which is

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Speaker 6: on the well end.

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Speaker 2: Of the Lafrica Paul I should mention last month was

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Speaker 2: two hundred and twenty eight thousand non farm payrolls the survey.

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Speaker 2: I didn't realize how way down it is. It's wicked down.

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Speaker 2: Good Morning Boston. One hundred and thirty thousand, and Stephanie

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Speaker 2: Roth in Wolf Research, is it ninety thousand zero? I

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Speaker 2: like that.

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Speaker 5: So, Stephanie, what how do you think this economy is

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Speaker 5: going to play to you? Are you guys calling for

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Speaker 5: a recession over Wolf Research?

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Speaker 6: No, I have point six percent GDP for this.

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Speaker 5: Year point six percent.

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Speaker 6: We have a couple of weeks until we start to

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Speaker 6: sort of reached the point of no return. So if

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Speaker 6: Trump and Facts reduces the China teriff rate, which I

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Speaker 6: think there is a decent chance of that, then we

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Speaker 6: can actually get out of this. We end up with

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Speaker 6: a sluggish year with the economy can hold up. If

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Speaker 6: we're sitting here in August and the tariffs are still

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Speaker 6: well over one hundred percent on China, then yeah, I

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Speaker 6: think we are in a different situation. But I just

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Speaker 6: don't think the administration has that pain tolerance to really

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Speaker 6: deal with companies doing significant layoffs. He cares less about

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Speaker 6: the stock market, clearly, but once we start to really

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Speaker 6: hear from companies, which has started to happen last week,

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Speaker 6: he's very likely to roll back the terriffs.

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Speaker 2: On ninety thousand jobs, what's a vector of your unemployment rate?

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Speaker 2: You're getting onto a five percent unemployment rate.

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Speaker 6: So we have well, we have a rising up to

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Speaker 6: four point five percent by the end of this year.

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Speaker 6: The thing that we haven't really talked about yet when

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Speaker 6: it comes to labor market is we also have a

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Speaker 6: significant reduction. From an integration perspective, there's going to be

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Speaker 6: conflicting forces on the unemployment rate where you have the

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Speaker 6: slowdown in the economy, putting upward pressure on the unemployment rate.

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Speaker 6: Yet a lot of jobs supply reducing because of immigration,

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Speaker 6: putting downward pressure. So that's why the unemployment rate is

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Speaker 6: not going to rise as much in our forecast versus

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Speaker 6: what it would otherwise be the case.

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Speaker 2: See how she did that, That's just something she took

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Speaker 2: labor economics, and she's the one in the front row

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Speaker 2: I hated because she nailed it.

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Speaker 5: I'm going to back row read in the New York Times.

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Speaker 2: So that was my market.

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Speaker 5: How I did it doing a cross or puzzle? And

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Speaker 5: so the question then is the Federal Reserve. Is there

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Speaker 5: a role here for the Federal Reserve to kind of

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Speaker 5: ease some of the pressure that may be coming into

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Speaker 5: the US economy.

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Speaker 6: No, No, that is not going to happen. The Fed

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Speaker 6: is not going to be influenced by some of this

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Speaker 6: political noise. Okay, they are going to wait until the

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Speaker 6: unemployment rate starts to rise, jobs are significantly below one

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Speaker 6: hundred thousand before they can actually significantly easier. Inflation is

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Speaker 6: going to be well above their target, their target by

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Speaker 6: at least a percentage point. We're gonna have three ish

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Speaker 6: percent inflation this year. There's no way they can ease

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Speaker 6: unless they start to see actual weakness in the economy.

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Speaker 6: So it's likely that would happen in call it September

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Speaker 6: of this year, not much before that.

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Speaker 5: How's the consumer doing? I mean I heard a Secretary

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Speaker 5: bestent over the weekend saying, yeah, I know the forecast

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Speaker 5: are coming down. I know there's concern out there. I

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Speaker 5: know the survey data, whether it's you miss or others

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Speaker 5: are citing concerns. But he he was saying that this

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Speaker 5: weekend that the consumer is still spending. Consumer's okay, and

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Speaker 5: that's seventy percent of the US economy. Said, don't worry

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Speaker 5: so much.

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Speaker 4: How do you view the consumer?

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Speaker 6: I think that's right. Today the consumer is fine, they're

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Speaker 6: still employed. Prices haven't really risen. Yeah, when you ask

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Speaker 6: look at consumer sentiment measures, they're down because the consumers

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Speaker 6: realize what's coming in the next couple of months, but

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Speaker 6: as of now, they haven't really felt it yet. Once

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Speaker 6: they start to see the numbers like we just talked

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Speaker 6: about with some of those companies raising prices significantly, once

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Speaker 6: shelves start to become there, that's when it could become

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Speaker 6: a lot different. And by the way, when job markets

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Speaker 6: start to slow down a lot. That's when the consumer

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Speaker 6: is very much likely to pull when when you.

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Speaker 2: Say this came up this weekend, when someone fancy like

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Speaker 2: you says and shelves become beare yes, we look at

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Speaker 2: that as like Eastern Europe or Russia fifty years ago.

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Speaker 2: What does quote shelves become bear look like?

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Speaker 6: Oh, COVID's that's the most recent example, and it's going

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Speaker 6: to be a similar type of thing if we don't

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Speaker 6: change the tariffs pretty significantly. Tarifreates on China to come

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Speaker 6: down all in below fifty percent. If they're sitting much

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Speaker 6: above fifty percent, it doesn't make sense. I mean China

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Speaker 6: five zero, correct, China five zero, all in.

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Speaker 2: Under ten percent? What number under ten percent is a

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Speaker 2: trigger point where we calm down. So I haven't seen that.

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Speaker 6: So we need to see the China tariffs come down

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Speaker 6: to something that's below the fifty percent. Also, that has

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Speaker 6: to include the fentannel tariffs too. That's just twenty percent.

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Speaker 6: So the number that we got, the reciprocal tariffs that

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Speaker 6: we got in April second have to come back to that.

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Speaker 6: Thirty four percent is kind of a place that wouldn't

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Speaker 6: be okay. And then on the rest of the countries.

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Speaker 6: We have to just stay at this ten percent or

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Speaker 6: lower or lower.

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Speaker 2: I'm studying Paul the or lower okay phrase, and I

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Speaker 2: to me, it's almost back to three percent, but you're

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Speaker 2: the expert. Or lower is nine percent.

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Speaker 6: If we're a ten percent on the rest of the countries.

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Speaker 6: And by the way, if we have some sort of

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Speaker 6: deal with Canada Mexico, then we're in an okay place.

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Speaker 6: Not great, but okay. I don't think we need to

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Speaker 6: return back to three percent necessarily, but we cannot stay

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Speaker 6: with China particular, is just a really big problem for

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Speaker 6: this economy. If we say the rest of ten percent,

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Speaker 6: the common can manage that.

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Speaker 2: Paul from New Jersey wants to know if we modeled

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Speaker 2: in the market reaction to a ninety thousand non farm payroll.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it would probably be a negative one,

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Speaker 6: just given how optimistic the forecasts are for this month,

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Speaker 6: which is truly surprising to me.

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Speaker 2: I totally agree with that.

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Speaker 5: This is great, so Tom, I thought my vest but

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Speaker 5: last year, so I think I now have a trade

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Speaker 5: deficit with Italy. I'm not that worried about it, that's okay.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but I made up for with a beverage of

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Speaker 2: my choice. I got the tab on the seventh floor

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Speaker 2: of the Hassler and said, well, that made up for

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Speaker 2: Paul's Thank you, Stephanie Roth, brilliant, Thank you, really really brilliant.

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Speaker 2: With Wolf Research, I can't say nothing.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

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Speaker 2: Joining us now. She never has Keena Henrietta Trece Co

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Speaker 2: foundered Veda Partners. Henrietta, The people like you in Washington

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Speaker 2: this morning are going to read found four hundred thousand

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Speaker 2: Biblical words from Ashley Parker and Michael Scherer published in

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Speaker 2: The Atlantic today. The rest of us just look at

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Speaker 2: the polls and the President is losing color. The character

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Speaker 2: of the polls and the impact on Republicans over the weekend.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, I think this is just starting to

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Speaker 7: emerge as an area that Republican members can't afford to ignore.

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Speaker 7: One of the things that happens when members are out

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Speaker 7: of session is they get an opportunity to just avoid

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Speaker 7: the press, avoid any bad news, and stay away from

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Speaker 7: the topics that are happening in the White House. And

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Speaker 7: as soon as they return to Congress, they're going to

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Speaker 7: be confronted by these numbers because they're so sharply changed

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Speaker 7: from just a couple months ago. The generic Democrat is

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Speaker 7: now a net six point swing ahead of Republicans from

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Speaker 7: where they were in November. So that is a material issue.

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Speaker 7: We have to look at about thirty nine right Republican

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Speaker 7: seats that are open now and potentially gettable, and that's

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Speaker 7: that's where they're going to be spending their time.

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Speaker 2: Billy House Venerable at Bloomberg New Yorker's boo and jeer

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Speaker 2: Republicans Lawlor It's circus like town hall. That's the future

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Speaker 2: of the GOP, isn't it.

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Speaker 7: I mean, that was pretty incredible. I actually posted this

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Speaker 7: on Instagram account talking about coming on here this morning.

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Speaker 7: There's like a fifteen bullet point rule list for Mike

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Speaker 7: Lawler's town hall on how constituents should be expected to

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Speaker 7: comport themselves during this meeting in order for him to

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Speaker 7: even hold it. The blowback for Mike Lawler is pretty

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Speaker 7: substantial right now. I'm sure you've seen that Elie Staphonic

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Speaker 7: is pulling ahead of him in the race for a

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Speaker 7: national or a statewide race. And I think this really

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Speaker 7: puts pressure on Lawler to get a maximum achievable deliverable

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Speaker 7: on the stalt deduction. Y'all talk about it all the time,

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Speaker 7: and it's because it's so important to New Yorkers. There's

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Speaker 7: almost nothing that Mike Lawler can deliver on salt that

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Speaker 7: would be sufficient to overcome how negatively New Yorkers are

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Speaker 7: going to think about it. And that's because if he

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Speaker 7: does nothing, the salt cap reverts back to its previous

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Speaker 7: position of totally uncapped. So there's almost only failure here

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Speaker 7: if he votes for any of the tax bills that

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Speaker 7: are coming through. So it's a really tough spot for

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Speaker 7: him to be in right now.

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Speaker 5: So, speaking of the tax bill, the twenty twenty five

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Speaker 5: reconciliation bill, I guess they'll start work on it. It's

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Speaker 5: point very soon, but I mean they're I think they

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Speaker 5: need to cut like two trillion dollars worth of federal spending.

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Speaker 5: I don't know how you do that. What's the game

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Speaker 5: plan there?

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Speaker 7: No, you're right to talk about that and then look

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Speaker 7: at the sequencing that they've set up. So they're going

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Speaker 7: to do all of the dessert first. This week, there's

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Speaker 7: going to be hearings at a couple of committees, but

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Speaker 7: all of those committees are tasked with increase in the deficit. So,

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Speaker 7: for example, one hundred and fifty billion dollars that the

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Speaker 7: Armed Services Committee gets to spend, one hundred billion dollars

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Speaker 7: that the Judiciary Committee gets to spend. This is where

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Speaker 7: all the spending is going to go out on the

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Speaker 7: popular stuff like investing in the military, or investing in

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Speaker 7: immigration detention facilities and judges and things like that. The

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Speaker 7: real heart of this bill the two trillion dollars in

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Speaker 7: cuts that they're going to try to identify the what

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Speaker 7: four and a half trillion dollar tax bill, three point

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Speaker 7: eight trillion of which is already spoken for three ent

439
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 7: extension of existing rates. That's all going to come late

440
00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 7: this month. I wouldn't be surprised, and I'm starting to

441
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 7: telegraphic clients now that that could very easily slip past

442
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:07,159
Speaker 7: Speaker Johnson's already delayed expectation of a Memorial Day rollout.

443
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 7: So the Ways and Means Committee is really where you

444
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 7: want to concentrate your time. They're the ones who get

445
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 7: all the money to raise and spend, and they're not

446
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 7: scheduled yet. It won't be probably until the very last

447
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 7: week before in a vile day, that we see their efforts.

448
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 5: Bloomberg News reporting and others as well. Trump floats new

449
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 5: income tax cut in bid to eastpite of tariffs. Is

450
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 5: a new income tax cut possible? Reasonable?

451
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 7: No, it's not. But I do appreciate that the President

452
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:36,880
Speaker 7: is acknowledging that the tax bill they're working on right

453
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 7: now does not include cuts. And we've walked through this

454
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,880
Speaker 7: math in the past, and I think it's really worth

455
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 7: spending time on. This is a gigantic bill, five point

456
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 7: three trillion dollars of spending, but almost all of that

457
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 7: is already allocated to things that have either expired at

458
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 7: the end of this year or will have expired since

459
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 7: twenty twenty two. So the main stimulative provisions of this package,

460
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:01,120
Speaker 7: I think are going to be somewhere in the range

461
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 7: of about three to five hundred billion dollars. That is

462
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 7: not enough to eliminate the individual income tax for individuals

463
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,679
Speaker 7: under two hundred thousand dollars, and it's off by several

464
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,639
Speaker 7: trillion dollars, so it's not close. I think the best

465
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 7: that you can hope for is that of that three

466
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 7: to five hundred million dollars that they're going to have

467
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 7: to spend, you could either hike the saltcap a little bit.

468
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:22,879
Speaker 7: You can try to eliminate taxes on temp which does

469
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 7: not have support in the United States Senate. You cannot

470
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 7: come close to eliminated taxes on Social Security because that

471
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:31,439
Speaker 7: costs one point eight trillion dollars. But there's really just

472
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 7: not a lot there.

473
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 2: Henriette, thank you, just brilliant. It's just just really really

474
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 2: interesting about the political immediacy that is out there. Henrietta

475
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:42,440
Speaker 2: Treys is with Veda Partners.

476
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

477
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

478
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

479
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,159
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

480
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.

481
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 2: This is an important conversation Joseph Lavorgnia with us around

482
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:10,879
Speaker 2: the market opening chief Economists, SNBC, NIKO securities, and with

483
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 2: some public service in the first term of a Trump administration.

484
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 2: So whatever they're going to do. They're going to save

485
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 2: face and jabbo down these outrageous tariffs. Okay, begin with that.

486
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 2: They're going to get down. And let's say they get

487
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 2: back to a ten percent blended rate, except the pre

488
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:31,680
Speaker 2: trade war number was a three percent blended rate. Where

489
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:36,639
Speaker 2: does Jolivarni you see the saving of face going to

490
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 2: get to an efficacious blended rate? Is it ten? Nine seven?

491
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 2: Back to three percent? Where's that number?

492
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 8: Joelivern you I've got a jack in the box story

493
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:51,120
Speaker 8: I want to tell you, but offline story that off

494
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 8: my chest. Okay, okay, that's number one.

495
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:54,160
Speaker 4: Two.

496
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,439
Speaker 8: The President said on the campaign trail last year that

497
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 8: it was ten percent for everybody but China sixty. Those

498
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,159
Speaker 8: are the numbers that I'm kind of working with that

499
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,640
Speaker 8: we ultimately go back to, at least maybe as terms

500
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 8: of statutory numbers, but as your point, blended rates will

501
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,400
Speaker 8: probably be a lot less. There'll be carve outs, there'll

502
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 8: be some exemptions.

503
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:13,119
Speaker 4: That's what I'm guessing.

504
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:19,120
Speaker 2: This is study. Yes, you're encyclopedic at this. Where's your

505
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 2: efficacious blended terriffry.

506
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,400
Speaker 8: For non China my guess? And this is a why

507
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 8: confidence interval is under ten percent, because if you look

508
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 8: at what the administration wants, it wants to reindustrialize, raise

509
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:37,120
Speaker 8: some revenues. China's a peer competitor and a strategic adversary,

510
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,919
Speaker 8: so everything that's being done is really as it relates

511
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 8: to China. So there will be some tariffs on our

512
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:45,639
Speaker 8: trading partners for trade unfair trade practices, but as the

513
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 8: reduction of ten percent minimum, assuming there is reciprocity, that's

514
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 8: kind of what I think we need to work off of.

515
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 8: Ten percent is the number. And then again I'm guessing

516
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 8: because of what's already happened with some announced carveouts and exceptions,

517
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 8: it'll be lower, but I don't know to what it is.

518
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:02,440
Speaker 8: I don't know what it is, and China's will be

519
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:04,880
Speaker 8: much higher. And if it goes from one forty five

520
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:08,439
Speaker 8: down to sixty, as the President alluded to before, I mean,

521
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 8: it's still a very high number, but it may not

522
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 8: feel as bad because the number was coming down for

523
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 8: such a high high point when the negotiations began.

524
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 5: What does that tariff level do to your GDP.

525
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:22,160
Speaker 8: Call not I've been pretty optimistic on GDP generally speaking.

526
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,360
Speaker 8: I mean, when I did the calculations of a ten

527
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 8: percent teriff on everybody but China, sixty percent on China.

528
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 8: I got about a nine tenths increase, assuming no offsets

529
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,159
Speaker 8: in the dollar, just a pure math of less than

530
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 8: one percent. It was nine tenths. And then the Fed

531
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 8: had done a piece back in September eighteen of fifteen

532
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 8: percent across the board and they have basically the same number.

533
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 8: What that would mean for GDP, I mean, initially maybe

534
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 8: it's a few tenths, like it's not a big number.

535
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 8: The problem right now, the way I see it, is

536
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 8: the market's worried about uncertainty, and it's very, very hard

537
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 8: to quantify uncertainty. What's amazing is if you look at

538
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 8: this is just what the data show. If you look

539
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 8: at the small business data between uncertainty and real GDP

540
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 8: was positive from about late eighties up to about twenty fifteen,

541
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 8: and now it's gone negative, but not by much so

542
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 8: the correlation is only about minus point two. So as

543
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 8: much as we talk about uncertainty, it's probably over overwrought

544
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 8: and exaggerated. Like this can't go on all year. And

545
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 8: my own working assumption is that the president is a

546
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 8: great negotiator, He's going to get something done. And then

547
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 8: we're going to in the economy is going to be okay.

548
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 2: The bottom line is the polling is cratering. I don't

549
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 2: know where it is. I don't know where it's going

550
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 2: to be in a week or two. There'll be more polls.

551
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 2: There always are. The concern out there is quote unquote

552
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 2: empty shells. You've served time with President Trump. What's going

553
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 2: to be the reaction of this administration if we get

554
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 2: empty shelves.

555
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 8: I don't think we're going to get empty shells, Tom,

556
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 8: for a variety of reasons. I think a lot of

557
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 8: that is just fear fear miiring in some sense. You

558
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 8: mentioned the polls, and you have to be careful with

559
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 8: the polling because I know the internal polling that the

560
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 8: president uses is not showing that weakness, and neither do

561
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 8: other good polls like grass MUSCIN. Some of these polls

562
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 8: from ABC, Washington Post to me do not accurately reflect

563
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 8: his base of support because it's always been a real

564
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 8: difficulty in gaining the mag of person in that sample.

565
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 8: And as someone I used to work with us to say,

566
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 8: there's a lot of propaganda polling, So I'd be very

567
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 8: careful on that. The equity market has recovered nicely off

568
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 8: its lows. The bond markets down about fifty bases points

569
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 8: from where it was in December. I'm watching gas and

570
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 8: oil prices. Those are moving lower. That's important. Those kitchen

571
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 8: table issues are really key to many of the Trump voters,

572
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 8: and that ultimately will matter more than I think some

573
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 8: of these other metrics. But we'll see. I mean, I'm assuming,

574
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 8: of course that these are going these policies are going

575
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:50,719
Speaker 8: to work, and economy is going to be okay. If

576
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 8: it turns out the end of the year, you're right

577
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 8: and there's nothing on the shelves down.

578
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 2: I got to interrupt in the time we have. Thank

579
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 2: you Ian Bremer for sending this over to me. Really

580
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 2: appreciate Ian Bremer being out front the president of the

581
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 2: United States on a day of election in Canada. And

582
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 2: it's a long, long, true social whatever tweet. I've got

583
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 2: to find it here now. If Canada becomes the chaerished

584
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 2: fifty first state of the United States of America, no

585
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 2: more artificially drawn line from many years ago on the

586
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 2: day of an election of our neighbor to the north,

587
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 2: that has gotta be kidney.

588
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 8: But but Tom, this is true, No trolling show no,

589
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 8: there is, there is a budget.

590
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 7: I went to.

591
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 2: Canada.

592
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 8: Well, Vassar certainly is not this college that I went

593
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:40,959
Speaker 8: to when I graduated in ninety one. I could tell

594
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 8: you that. But look, this is Trump trolling and having

595
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,320
Speaker 8: fun with it. There's no way that Canada is going

596
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 8: to be the fifty first state. Ian should know better

597
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 8: when he comments on that.

598
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 5: So talk to us about I think what's important coming

599
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 5: up here is we got to get a tax bill done,

600
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 5: and that's.

601
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 4: Going to be great.

602
00:31:57,960 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 8: You well, that's exactly right. That's the point that I've

603
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 8: and that is that the terriffs are obviously important, and

604
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:05,480
Speaker 8: I've been arguing that we're gonna have some clarity on

605
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 8: these tariffs because there even though they won't be scored

606
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 8: in the CBO data, they will they'll be used to

607
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 8: get preps some of these fiskly conservative people on board.

608
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 8: Right now, the terriffs, this is only through March, and

609
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 8: the April data are going to show more strength. We're

610
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 8: generating one hundred billion and tariff revenue this year, so

611
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 8: that's a big number. We need the budget done because

612
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 8: the budget is going to give clarity on taxes. If

613
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 8: the budget drags on, you know, past the summer recess,

614
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 8: and we're now in Q three. We're gonna have a

615
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 8: problem on the account of.

616
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 2: Fifteen seconds is all I got. We need to have

617
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 2: you back, Joe. Is tariff revenue gonna substitute for a

618
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 2: lower income tax burden.

619
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 8: It will offset the revenue loss from no tax on

620
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:50,479
Speaker 8: tips over time and some of the Social Security benefits,

621
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 8: so effectively, Yes, Joe Oliver on.

622
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 2: You, thank you so much. This morning with SMBC and

623
00:32:57,520 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 2: Legal Securities.

624
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 1: This is the Bloombergs Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

625
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

626
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

627
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

628
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

629
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 2: Newspapers at least what do you have?

630
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 9: Okay, So I wanted to start with this one that

631
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 9: stuck out to me. This was and the Wall Street

632
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 9: Journal says a new group of people are turning to

633
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 9: weight loss drugs like ozempic. It's not kind of the overweight,

634
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 9: heavily overweight. It's amateur athletes that are looking to raise

635
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 9: their performance. So you know the ones who go out

636
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 9: and do like the five k or maybe a triathlon

637
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 9: or something like.

638
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 5: Weight train every day.

639
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 9: Okay, show just turn it out there, thanks, but like runners, cyclists,

640
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 9: anything like that. So the Wall Street journalist bokes and

641
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 9: they said their bodies are feeling stronger. They said that

642
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 9: they've shaved like a minute off of their five k time,

643
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 9: which is huge yep if you're one of those runners.

644
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 9: But they're warning that you know what, if you suppress

645
00:33:57,680 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 9: too much of your appetite, it's not good if you're

646
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 9: an athlete at that kind of caliber because it can

647
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 9: affect you.

648
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 2: And then some of them do I get the whole people,

649
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 2: but other side effects.

650
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:10,960
Speaker 9: Different people have different side effects depending on what your

651
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 9: NAS dose is, yes, and what your dosage is. So

652
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 9: that's why doctor suggests like microdosing, like giving smaller amounts

653
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 9: of it. But it's just a new growing group.

654
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,440
Speaker 2: What do you think you're the only one in the

655
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:28,640
Speaker 2: stern order control room healthy. Would you take I should say,

656
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:32,720
Speaker 2: slide for seconds off your sterling five kids?

657
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 9: So I don't think I would. I mean it's because

658
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,239
Speaker 9: of the side effects. I don't think it's worth it.

659
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 9: But that's just that's just my next to the Okay

660
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 9: egg price is coming back down. Costco update.

661
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 6: I went there.

662
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 9: They're in the seven dollars range now for the two dozen,

663
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 9: so getting a little bit better. But the effects of

664
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:54,239
Speaker 9: the sky high rise still being felt. So you had

665
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 9: tractor supply. They're halfway through. They have this annual baby

666
00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 9: chick sales event and apparently they have strong results. So

667
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 9: the CEO said that the core customer base, they're expanding

668
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 9: their flock. But what they pointed out is that they

669
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:10,719
Speaker 9: have a strong from new customers who want them for

670
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 9: their backyard, so more people are buying them so that

671
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 9: they can raise the chickens.

672
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 5: What do you do from your side?

673
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 2: What do you do? I got a chicken coop. It's

674
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,719
Speaker 2: just off the frick. I mean you go down to seventy.

675
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:27,359
Speaker 2: I got fourteen chickens going just off the frick. They

676
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:32,320
Speaker 2: just reopened the free collection. I saw spectacular renovation success

677
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 2: of the frick. And you know see they called me

678
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 2: up and they just said the chicken coop doesn't cut.

679
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:43,280
Speaker 5: You know, got to take that out to make more chickens.

680
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 2: Well, you think this is funny, You don't understand. Coyotes

681
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 2: in Central Park next there you go there you go.

682
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 9: Okay, last one, Paul this saod that's me because of you.

683
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 9: You're a Yellowstone like big fan. Okay, So Bloomberg's Greef time.

684
00:35:57,760 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 9: Lucas Shaw had.

685
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 2: This great really really.

686
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 9: Breaks it down as to how this became this three

687
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 9: billion out of franchise and then where it goes next

688
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:08,719
Speaker 9: from here, So it really breaks it down. I mean

689
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 9: it talked about Taylor Sheridan Granting ready to quit. He

690
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 9: didn't want to make it because he was, you know,

691
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:15,800
Speaker 9: getting a lot of feedback. He sold it to HBO,

692
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 9: who decided not to go ahead with it. Then it

693
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,279
Speaker 9: landed at Paramount and now it's one of the most

694
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:21,840
Speaker 9: valuable franchises in Hollywood.

695
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:22,080
Speaker 2: Yeah.

696
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:24,399
Speaker 5: I mean he's done two or three prequels and there's

697
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 5: more coming. The risk is here that they're just going

698
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 5: to burn through this whole concept too quickly. But you know,

699
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:32,359
Speaker 5: you make money, why you can I guess so. But again, yeah,

700
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:34,920
Speaker 5: it's been a huge, huge franchise, and they're gonna have

701
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:40,439
Speaker 5: spinoffs from the Yellowstone Story show which ended, They're gonna

702
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 5: have spinoffs using some of the existing characters.

703
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 4: So more to come.

704
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 2: You seem, like Lucas said nineteen twenty three in.

705
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 9: Nineteen eighty three.

706
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 4: Yep, exactly.

707
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:51,880
Speaker 5: No, I have not seen him. I have not gotten

708
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 5: into them, but I know they're super popular. But I'll

709
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 5: be looking for the new spinoffs from the existing yellow Stone.

710
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:03,799
Speaker 9: Right, there's like Dutton Ranches a good Anyfore, I talked to.

711
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 2: You more about this because I thought the Lucash say

712
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:07,800
Speaker 2: it was just I'm.

713
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 9: Glad you to get you to how Paramount lost a

714
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:12,720
Speaker 9: lot of money from it, tons.

715
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,439
Speaker 2: Of money, and then boom. We'll talk to Paul about

716
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:14,919
Speaker 2: that later.

717
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:15,200
Speaker 6: Folks.

718
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:17,680
Speaker 2: I think it is, you know, for the culture of America.

719
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 2: It's really something like, how do you invest in all

720
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 2: these It needs to be easy. I mean, you know,

721
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 2: you were little Richard in the fifties, Lisa, tell you.

722
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 2: Thank you so much.

723
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:31,799
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724
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:35,680
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725
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:39,560
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726
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:43,520
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727
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:46,920
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728
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