WEBVTT - Beating the Book: The 2021 NFL Draft Betting Special 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:13.840 Check it down man, Now Down Now Thursday one, it's 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:18.680 the Beating the Book podcast, Kill Alexander Live from Circa, 0:00:18.800 --> 0:00:20.680 which I don't believe we've ever done a podcast from 0:00:20.720 --> 0:00:23.040 Circle before. We did from the d all football season. 0:00:23.720 --> 0:00:26.079 But obviously for those watching the video clip on this, 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:28.360 look at the background. Look how great this place is. 0:00:28.560 --> 0:00:32.560 It's unbelievable here at Circus Sports. Uh and thrilled to 0:00:32.680 --> 0:00:35.680 have an all star cast talk about the draft. First 0:00:35.680 --> 0:00:39.000 of all, my partner on Primetime Action, which we do 0:00:39.080 --> 0:00:42.720 Monday through Friday night, sometimes on MSG plus, sometimes not. 0:00:42.800 --> 0:00:45.919 It's Matt Brown. How you doing, Matt doing well? Doing well? 0:00:46.320 --> 0:00:49.839 Football season MSG plus. Outside of that, that's how we 0:00:49.920 --> 0:00:51.559 that's how we should start saying it right, And that's 0:00:51.560 --> 0:00:53.519 how exactly what she starts stating. And then with the 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:57.200 with the Circle backdrop, the nighttime dusk circule backdrops from 0:00:57.200 --> 0:00:59.240 the Deep Dive podcast is Drew Dinsy, how are you 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:02.000 doing man? I'm doing well. Man. We're a week out 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:04.920 from the draft. This time of years, super fun, love 0:01:04.959 --> 0:01:07.839 all of the looking into the crystal ball of who's 0:01:07.840 --> 0:01:09.800 going to do what in the draft. This is this is, 0:01:09.959 --> 0:01:12.000 this is what it's all about. Dude, I cannot wait. 0:01:12.160 --> 0:01:15.080 We are exactly one week away from the NFL Draft, 0:01:15.360 --> 0:01:17.959 and we'll go through everybody's favorite picks here, favorite props 0:01:18.000 --> 0:01:21.240 that they've already bet obviously on this show, I saved 0:01:21.240 --> 0:01:23.000 the best for last. I was gonna introduce him first, 0:01:23.000 --> 0:01:24.520 but he he went off camera for a second, so 0:01:24.560 --> 0:01:25.800 I didn't wanted to make sure he had time to 0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:28.080 get in to see uh. He is the host Lombardi 0:01:28.160 --> 0:01:30.960 Line at Vison. He has a podcast of his own 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:33.400 with Adne Invert called GM Shuffle. The name of the 0:01:33.440 --> 0:01:37.119 book is Gridiron Genius writes for the Athletic he has 0:01:37.160 --> 0:01:39.160 worked with all the greats, not all the greats again, 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:43.000 no Joe Gibbs, but Bill Walsh, Bill Parcels, Bill Belichick, 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:46.280 Al Davis. It's Michael Lombardi. Thank you for doing this. Michael, 0:01:46.280 --> 0:01:49.000 appreciate it, No no problem. It's nice to be here. 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:50.720 Thank you. It's good to be here. Michael. Let me 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:53.000 start with you, um before we get into all of 0:01:53.080 --> 0:01:56.080 our props. Let me start with um the top of 0:01:56.120 --> 0:01:59.920 the draft, because in many respects, this is I think 0:02:00.200 --> 0:02:03.240 the most confusing, maybe not confusing, but the draft that 0:02:03.280 --> 0:02:06.440 I probably know the least about one through six a 0:02:06.480 --> 0:02:09.840 week out in recent memory. Um, if you if you 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:12.000 are okay with Trevor, not okay with but if you 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:14.440 believe Trevor Lawrence is absolutely going number one. By the way, 0:02:14.480 --> 0:02:17.080 the surest thing in this draft is Trevor Lawrence tweeting 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:19.560 out that he's already donating to Jacksonville charity. So he 0:02:19.680 --> 0:02:22.400 is going number one. If you believe Zack Wilson is 0:02:22.400 --> 0:02:24.679 going number two. Though, to the Jets, where are week out? 0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:27.640 Do you stand? And you've been very consistent about this 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:32.360 on three, Let's start there, you know, I think I 0:02:32.400 --> 0:02:35.760 think let's start with this idea for the better. If 0:02:35.800 --> 0:02:38.280 you want to play props and you want to use 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:42.160 mock drafts as kind of a guideline for your prop betting, 0:02:43.160 --> 0:02:46.079 I think you have to be strategic in looking at 0:02:46.080 --> 0:02:49.840 each mock. For example, if you want to know what 0:02:50.880 --> 0:02:52.800 the Rams are going to do in the draft or 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:56.880 perhaps San Francisco, read Peter Schrager's mock because he's pretty 0:02:56.880 --> 0:02:59.440 wired in those organizations. If you want to know what 0:02:59.480 --> 0:03:01.720 the Jets are gonna do or what Baltimore is going 0:03:01.760 --> 0:03:03.799 to do, then make sure you read Daniel Jeremiah's mom 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:06.519 If you want to know what some other teams do. 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:09.800 You read Charlie Cassually's mo These are the mocks you 0:03:09.840 --> 0:03:12.480 read because they'll give you a peek into what the 0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:15.960 teams are really thinking. They aren't going to be They're 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:18.040 not going to be perfect on all the draft. So 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:21.640 let's like Peter Peter Schrager's draft mock draft. He just 0:03:21.680 --> 0:03:26.639 released it, uh April right. He has exactly the way 0:03:26.639 --> 0:03:29.320 I see it. He has Mac Jones coming to three, 0:03:29.480 --> 0:03:31.079 which is what I think is going to happen. I 0:03:31.160 --> 0:03:33.880 think it's a debate in that organization between Tray Lance 0:03:33.919 --> 0:03:36.920 and Mac Jones. I think the head coach really likes 0:03:36.960 --> 0:03:39.600 mac Jones. He likes his intelligence, he likes his ability 0:03:39.600 --> 0:03:41.640 to control the game with the lie of scrimmage. He 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:47.080 sees a combination of Matt Ryan, Matt Shob, Kirk Cousins, 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:51.280 all those players wrapped into Mac Jones. The people on 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:53.680 the outside of the building don't see that, and some 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:55.360 in the inside of the building I'll see that they 0:03:55.400 --> 0:03:58.040 favored Trey Lance. So I think, you know, if I 0:03:58.120 --> 0:04:00.760 were a betting man, I would bet Matt Jones at three. 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:02.960 I would hedge my bet with something on Trey Lancer 0:04:02.960 --> 0:04:05.680 as well. Interesting that Justin Fields was not in that 0:04:05.720 --> 0:04:08.360 conversation for you. By the way, Peter Schreeger has Travis 0:04:08.360 --> 0:04:10.800 Etien going to Washington at nineteen, So do not look 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:14.880 at Peter Schreeger's draft for Washington specific payers. Let me 0:04:14.920 --> 0:04:17.840 just say that, Yeah, I mean, look that That's why 0:04:17.880 --> 0:04:19.480 I think you have to be really careful. Do you 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:22.040 have to pick certain teams that you know guys are 0:04:22.040 --> 0:04:25.760 really wired on? Right? You know, go through Peter Schreeger's 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:28.360 Twitter feed. What stories does he break that that are 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:31.200 true based on like like for me, like people like 0:04:31.279 --> 0:04:33.800 they if I say something about the Patriots, people tend 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:35.520 to believe it because they know I talked to the 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:39.960 head coach. So you know, Carolina, my some works there page, 0:04:40.000 --> 0:04:43.320 you know, but not all drafts, not all mocks are perfect. 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:47.040 But when you when you have a guy like Charlie 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:50.720 Castoley who does a good job of collecting information, you 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:53.039 gotta look at all his information on where he has 0:04:53.040 --> 0:04:55.520 guys going. You can utilize that draft that mock as 0:04:55.520 --> 0:04:59.239 well drew number three. You see it a little differently, 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:03.160 or at least read the tea leaves differently anyway. Yeah, 0:05:03.160 --> 0:05:06.480 And I mean you know, it's it's really funny how 0:05:06.480 --> 0:05:08.719 there's sort of an asymmetry about the coverage of the 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:12.200 draft and where actual value betting lies, because if you 0:05:12.760 --> 0:05:15.039 actually think that there's a value play to be made 0:05:15.080 --> 0:05:19.880 on three, you're probably you're probably deluding yourself. I would 0:05:19.880 --> 0:05:22.240 say that there are lots of value draft, you know, 0:05:22.440 --> 0:05:25.479 value propositions down the board at this point. Uh. And 0:05:25.680 --> 0:05:30.680 you know, I personally, while I completely agree with you know, 0:05:30.760 --> 0:05:33.720 Mike's take overall that there you have to do a 0:05:33.760 --> 0:05:37.080 blended approach where you kind of evaluate the quality of 0:05:37.120 --> 0:05:40.320 information across all the marks depending on who's connected to who. 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:44.160 I would still point to San Francisco and say they 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:46.120 would be at the top of the board for me 0:05:46.360 --> 0:05:49.279 of a team that has mastered sort of the the 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:54.359 psy ops, the disinformation campaign and the obscuring you know 0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:59.120 what they ultimately end intend to do. And I think 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:01.560 this is probably the most important pick that's going to 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:04.919 happen under the Lynch Shanahan regime. Uh. And the idea 0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:07.600 that they even would have told somebody is that they 0:06:07.600 --> 0:06:10.280 are especially close to like Pete Schreegor, what their true 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:13.839 intention is I think is I I have suspicion about 0:06:13.880 --> 0:06:16.920 that um and you know, as I look, you know 0:06:16.960 --> 0:06:19.839 that there's a reason that Zack Wilson is like minus 0:06:20.279 --> 0:06:23.120 five thousand to go to the Jets, but Mac Jones 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:25.440 is like minus one fifty to go to the Niners. 0:06:25.760 --> 0:06:28.960 You know that the Jets are not trying to hide information. 0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:31.599 They're being very out in the open with it, and 0:06:31.640 --> 0:06:34.080 they leak all of the time. You know, it's relatively 0:06:34.160 --> 0:06:35.800 well known when we get to the draft cycle who 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:38.080 the Jets like. But I would point to the Niners 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:42.120 even last year and Peter Schreeger's mock he had them 0:06:42.200 --> 0:06:44.480 taking uh, you know, one of the he had them 0:06:44.520 --> 0:06:47.839 taking I think Rugs at thirteen. Overall last year, the 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:50.920 consensus mocks across the boards where they loved Rugs, they 0:06:50.960 --> 0:06:52.920 loved Judy, they loved Lamb. They were going to get 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:56.000 one of those three guys and picked their team got 0:06:56.000 --> 0:07:00.279 to them. Uh, Lamb and Judy were available, and rather 0:07:00.360 --> 0:07:03.480 than make those picks, they traded down and took kin 0:07:03.600 --> 0:07:07.279 Law to replace DeForrest Buckner. And it was like you 0:07:07.279 --> 0:07:10.080 couldn't find a single mock in this in the space 0:07:10.160 --> 0:07:13.480 that linked them to kind Law. And it was like, okay, Uh, 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:15.680 they did a very good job of sort of deceiving 0:07:15.720 --> 0:07:18.360 the fact that they really didn't have eyes for any 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:21.080 of those three guys when they with their first pick. 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:23.400 Uh And in their second pick they did use on 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:25.800 a wide receiver and it was somebody that nobody saw 0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:28.360 coming in Brandon Ayouk. So I would I would say 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:30.760 that Shanahan is one of the guys that I would 0:07:30.760 --> 0:07:35.080 put the least amount of confidence in anyone saying that 0:07:35.200 --> 0:07:38.160 they've heard with any kind of credibility that they know 0:07:38.240 --> 0:07:41.280 what he would do. Um. I've been into fields at 0:07:41.320 --> 0:07:43.640 three pretty heavily. At this point, I'm prepared to take 0:07:43.680 --> 0:07:45.480 it as a loss. I've been prepared to take as 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:47.520 a loss since doing it in the first place, because 0:07:47.520 --> 0:07:50.840 I've just been like, I have a tough time swallowing 0:07:50.840 --> 0:07:53.600 how a team gives up so much future capital to 0:07:53.640 --> 0:07:55.680 move up and take mac Jones when the likelihood he 0:07:55.720 --> 0:07:58.240 was going to be there much lower in the draft 0:07:58.360 --> 0:08:00.760 is you know, it just it didn't make sense mathematically, 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:02.680 It didn't make sense in terms of the value of 0:08:02.720 --> 0:08:04.880 that picked for me, that that would be mac Jones. 0:08:05.400 --> 0:08:07.920 UM and similarly, trade lance, you know, if you're if 0:08:07.920 --> 0:08:10.360 you're leveraging all of this future capital and this goes 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:12.280 beyond just pick three with the Niners. But if you're 0:08:12.320 --> 0:08:15.080 leveraging so much of your future capital for a player 0:08:15.160 --> 0:08:18.840 that started one year of FCS football, like you've started 0:08:18.880 --> 0:08:21.360 the clock on your the end of your tenure. Right 0:08:21.400 --> 0:08:23.760 if that pick doesn't work out, and there's maybe a 0:08:24.480 --> 0:08:26.800 chance that it doesn't, you know, like, that's that's it, 0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:29.240 that's the end. You know, you've passed on guylike Fields, 0:08:29.240 --> 0:08:32.439 who is you know who I think has a higher floor. Um. 0:08:32.480 --> 0:08:35.000 You know, you may have you may have captured the 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:38.240 next you know, the next great quarterback in in lance. 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:40.160 But if it doesn't work out, you know, that's it 0:08:40.240 --> 0:08:42.440 for you. And I have a tough time, you know, 0:08:42.480 --> 0:08:45.319 seeing that people would you know, leverage that much future 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:48.880 capital for unknown quantities like this Um and then you know, 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:53.120 just you know, lastly, the Um. The fit between Fields 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:56.160 in San Francisco, in my opinion is is so strong 0:08:56.760 --> 0:09:00.000 UH and the connection to the through the quarterback collect 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:03.640 div between Shanahan Uh and UH and Fields going back 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:06.240 to high school and that that he's a known quantity 0:09:06.320 --> 0:09:08.200 for them. On top of the fact that he was 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:12.360 an iron man in the semifinal game in college in 0:09:12.400 --> 0:09:15.640 the college football semifinal game played through broken ribs. And 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:18.280 here's Shanahan, he's dealt with you know, r G three, 0:09:18.280 --> 0:09:21.679 who was a generational talent, his legs going year one. Uh, 0:09:21.720 --> 0:09:23.480 you know, he can't stay on the field. He he 0:09:23.480 --> 0:09:26.960 gets Jimmy Garoppolo from the Patriots. Jimmy Garoppolo looks amazing 0:09:27.000 --> 0:09:29.439 down the stretch that first season they trade for him. 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:31.480 He can't stay on the field. He's made a glass, 0:09:31.840 --> 0:09:34.520 you know. So the idea that Shanahan's kind of I 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:36.800 would air on the side of a guy that is 0:09:36.840 --> 0:09:38.960 an iron man that's going to take the field even 0:09:38.960 --> 0:09:42.360 with broken ribs, I think is real. And uh, you know, 0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:44.640 the only reason I could think that they would run 0:09:44.679 --> 0:09:48.680 this sort of misinformation campaign, uh, you know, the psy 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:52.760 ops on on you know, the football media landscape would 0:09:52.800 --> 0:09:54.680 just be to keep the Jets locked in on Wilson 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:58.840 at too, because I have, I personally think the Fields Wilson, 0:09:59.240 --> 0:10:01.880 the space between those two players in their their potential 0:10:01.880 --> 0:10:04.920 in the NFL is very thin. Uh And Zack Wilson, 0:10:05.080 --> 0:10:08.560 in my mind, is a higher candidate from being an 0:10:08.640 --> 0:10:11.440 NFL bust than Fields is. But um, you know that 0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:14.439 that's that's kind of where I've landed. But with all 0:10:14.480 --> 0:10:16.480 that said, it's the most fun topic to talk about 0:10:16.520 --> 0:10:19.720 in the draft prop space, But there are lots of 0:10:19.760 --> 0:10:23.319 better options for finding betting value for sure. By the 0:10:23.360 --> 0:10:26.160 way I would say this, I would say this, s Gill, 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:29.040 I'd like to rebut that I would say this, if 0:10:29.120 --> 0:10:32.880 if you really understand Kyle Shanahan and you understand what 0:10:32.920 --> 0:10:36.760 he's looking for, you can't think it's justin fields. If 0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:40.120 you understand, if you've had conversations with Kyle Shanahan about 0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:42.720 what he wants in his offense, about the mechanics of 0:10:42.760 --> 0:10:45.960 throwing the football, about understanding what's going to happen at 0:10:45.960 --> 0:10:48.120 the line of scrimmage, then it's going to either be 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:50.640 mac Jones or Trey Lance. And I heard all of 0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:53.640 what you said, And if you talk to people that 0:10:53.679 --> 0:10:56.720 have coached with him, if you heard him discuss the 0:10:56.800 --> 0:10:59.719 values of what he sees in the throwing motion. I mean, 0:10:59.760 --> 0:11:01.960 there's a lot of teams in the National Football League 0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:05.280 that have a real concern about justin fields is throwing motion. 0:11:05.880 --> 0:11:09.080 And there is a huge disconnect between most people in 0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:12.080 the league on where they see justin fields you happen 0:11:12.120 --> 0:11:14.040 to see them much higher. But I think it's a 0:11:14.080 --> 0:11:18.000 little bit like valuing art unless you really understand what 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:21.199 the coach is looking for. And I didn't base my 0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:24.120 pick on mac Jones being there at three based on 0:11:24.280 --> 0:11:27.920 Peter Schrager. I've based it on what people have told 0:11:27.960 --> 0:11:30.040 me that had been in the league. And I haven't 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:33.320 been with Kyle Shanahan. And if you were to ask 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:37.000 anybody who has been with Kyle in the room who 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:41.280 we would pick of them, would say mac Jones is 0:11:41.320 --> 0:11:43.720 the guy. Yeah, I will tell you, Matt, you and 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:46.560 I on Primetime Action the night of the Niners trading 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:49.320 up to three for that hall. And by the way, 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:52.079 what Drew was saying is correct. I mean these the 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:54.520 line on number three keep slip flopping day after day 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:56.920 from mac Jones to Justin Fields. At this point in 0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:59.320 terms of who's the favorite, so many more things more 0:11:59.400 --> 0:12:01.520 bettable at this point. But Matt, you and I our 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:05.080 first reaction was they're drafting anybody but mac Jones. But 0:12:05.160 --> 0:12:06.920 that was more of an assessment. Doesn't mean we don't 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:08.560 like mac Jones. That was more of an assessment of 0:12:09.280 --> 0:12:12.240 what we believe to be the game of the draft 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:14.360 and where you could have otherwise gotten Matt Jones. Is 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:17.359 that fair? And yeah, And I mean listen, I'm I'm 0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:19.480 I very well could be wrong. I think it's Justin 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:20.959 Fields as well. I very well could be wrong. It 0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:23.199 could be mac Jones. If it is mac Jones, then 0:12:23.240 --> 0:12:25.720 I think one thing will be for certain. They overpaid 0:12:25.760 --> 0:12:27.360 for it because they definitely didn't have to go to 0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:30.760 three to get mac Jones. And so I definitely think 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:32.800 at the end of this, if there is no if 0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:35.040 it isn't Justin Fields and it's mac Jones, then they 0:12:35.120 --> 0:12:37.200 likely overpaid for it. But I mean, you know, look, 0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:39.000 we look at it Justin Fields here and this is 0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:41.120 a guy him and Trevor Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence is a 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:43.120 guy that no one's ever wavered on. He has been 0:12:43.160 --> 0:12:45.040 the guy that everyone says is going to be the 0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:48.800 next guy in the next generational talent. Uh. Justin Fields 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:50.679 was ranked ahead of Trevor Larrence and one of the 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:52.760 scouting services coming out of high school. Trevor Larrence was 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:54.960 right to have Justin Fields and the other they come out. 0:12:55.200 --> 0:12:58.120 Everybody is talking about how good these guys are in college. 0:12:58.760 --> 0:13:02.120 If if if Justin Fields had not played this season 0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:04.800 like a Jumar Chase didn't, then we would be arguing 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:06.520 right now who the number one overall pick in the 0:13:06.559 --> 0:13:08.520 draft would be. Should it be Justin Fields or should 0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:10.679 it be Trevor Long? That would that was what we 0:13:10.679 --> 0:13:13.440 would be arguing right now. No, we wouldn't know. We wouldn't, 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:17.079 He wouldn't. They were literally mentioned in the same sentence 0:13:17.160 --> 0:13:21.280 every single every single for two years. But the people 0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:23.320 that are mentioning it don't know what they're talking about. 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:26.880 It's like you can't use a foul a false narrative 0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:30.600 to support a narrative like you're asking people. It's like saying, well, 0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:32.079 this guy is the best player coming out of high 0:13:32.080 --> 0:13:34.400 school running back, so we should talk about him. It's 0:13:34.400 --> 0:13:36.880 about their career, what they do on the field. Like 0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:39.600 that doesn't that doesn't value it. That's not how people 0:13:39.600 --> 0:13:42.360 in the National Football League build a draft board based 0:13:42.400 --> 0:13:45.600 on the conversation Justin Fields has always been. Have you 0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:49.000 talked to anybody at Georgia about Justin Fields? Why he transferred? 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:52.120 What happened? Do you understand how Jake from beat him out? 0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:54.120 I mean, I don't understand it, but do you I 0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:56.560 don't understand how that happened, but it did. But my 0:13:56.640 --> 0:13:59.120 point here is simply this, Look, I'm not going to 0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:02.800 debate over over and because you know it could if 0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:05.520 it's Justin Fields, that I'm completely wrong. But I think 0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:08.040 the reality of it is, is anybody who thinks that 0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:10.440 we would have a conversation between Justin Fields and Trevor 0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:14.160 Lawrence this summer. We're not watching the same tape. We're 0:14:14.160 --> 0:14:16.200 not watching the same tape, We're not watching the same 0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:18.679 game of football. That was never going to be the case. 0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:21.880 That was never going to be the case. And and 0:14:21.920 --> 0:14:25.600 so for me, it's like, look, he played the senior year, 0:14:25.920 --> 0:14:29.200 you watched him, he did his thing, and you go on. 0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:34.040 I just here's what I don't understand. Matt Jones did 0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:37.680 more in Alabama and I'm not. And if I were 0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:39.640 picking at three, I would take sul the tackle. So 0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:40.840 let me get that out of the way. I'm not 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:42.520 in love with any of the quarterbacks. I want to 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:45.640 make this perfectly clear. I'm not defending Mac Jones here, 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:48.480 but I think there's a real bias going on here 0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:52.040 that you know Matt Jones. Every Alabama player will openly 0:14:52.080 --> 0:14:55.320 tell you, without even asking, without even asking the question, 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:59.960 who's a better player to or mac Jones. Absolutely absolutely 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:03.240 mac Jones, not even close. They changed the offense from 0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:06.640 mac Jones. They throw the ball downfield more for mac Jones. 0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:09.000 They did more things to fit his game that was 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:12.640 more conducive to the pro game than anything. And now 0:15:12.800 --> 0:15:14.720 I know we're not allowed to say a bad word 0:15:14.760 --> 0:15:17.360 about too, but you didn't think Tool was a bad 0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:19.320 picke at the fourth pick in the draft last year, 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:22.160 But yet you think the third pick is too rich. 0:15:22.520 --> 0:15:25.800 When Kyle Shanahan, I'm told, thought that there's going to 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:28.800 be teams that trade up into the top five, namely 0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:33.840 New England, namely Carolina, maybe Denver to get mac Jones, 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:35.640 and he wanted to beat them to the punch. Now 0:15:35.680 --> 0:15:39.920 that could be all wrong, but that's the conversation I will. 0:15:39.960 --> 0:15:41.760 I will go ahead and let this be known for 0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:43.880 the rest of the podcast. I've talked to no head coaches, 0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:46.000 I've talked to no player personnel people. I had no 0:15:46.040 --> 0:15:48.520 one in any any NFL offices. So all of this 0:15:48.600 --> 0:15:51.840 definitely comes from opinion and things that I've that I've 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:54.760 gotten along the way. I think there's a fundamental disagreement 0:15:54.760 --> 0:15:57.240 as to how good Justin Fields was in college. There 0:15:57.360 --> 0:16:00.200 is a lot of high, high level grading systems out there, 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:02.520 and again I understand they're not in the NFL offices, 0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:05.000 but Pro Football Focus is pretty highly regarded. He had 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:07.520 a ninety two point four passing grade through them, deadly 0:16:07.560 --> 0:16:09.640 accurate all of the everything that they're saying, have you 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:11.680 ever seen have you ever seen the corners that Pro 0:16:11.760 --> 0:16:14.440 Football Focus grades and where they end up grafted and 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:17.080 how they play? Like I'm just telling you that this 0:16:17.200 --> 0:16:20.320 phenomenon about Pro Football Focus, if they were so right 0:16:20.360 --> 0:16:22.920 on quarterbacks, then why is all of them getting more 0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:25.360 on all of the picks blown? Like do you even 0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:28.520 know who does the quarterbacks for Pro Football Focus? Like 0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:33.600 who grades them? Like I like, I just don't understand, 0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:34.960 Like I mean, I don't be I want to be 0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:37.520 argumented about a podcast, but I'm just not going to, 0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:41.200 you know, Like I'm I don't understand how people can 0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:44.480 kill Mac Jones. And then in the same sentence, I 0:16:44.480 --> 0:16:46.200 don't think to talk about two of them. I don't 0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:49.920 think he's the greatest quarterback, but no people, but I 0:16:49.960 --> 0:16:55.880 think nobody complains about two might end up being a 0:16:55.880 --> 0:16:59.840 better quarterback ultimately than might be. But but realistically the 0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:02.840 but I I just have a tough time having seen 0:17:03.080 --> 0:17:06.760 only film talk to no one that not not ranking 0:17:06.800 --> 0:17:11.200 them sort of in the consensus ranking, which was Lawrence Wilson, Fields, 0:17:11.320 --> 0:17:16.720 Lance Jones, and Jones at five. To me, I completely 0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:19.240 concede that what he did it last year in Alabama 0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:23.399 was awesome. But it was legitimately one of the best 0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:26.440 offensive systems that we've ever seen in college football ever. 0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:29.520 He had one of the most competent offensive lines of 0:17:29.840 --> 0:17:32.399 that you could you could ask for his weapons. He 0:17:32.440 --> 0:17:35.560 was thrown to were you know, future all pro NFL 0:17:35.640 --> 0:17:39.679 players like it was the perfect storm. He didn't have 0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:43.120 to do much. He was in a very comfortable situation. 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:46.479 And to me, I don't know that he has an 0:17:46.560 --> 0:17:49.600 NFL body personally. I think he needs to put on 0:17:49.640 --> 0:17:51.719 a ton of way to stay healthy. I think if 0:17:51.720 --> 0:17:53.919 you put him behind the San Francisco offensive line and 0:17:53.920 --> 0:17:56.960 he takes shots from NFL players, I'm worried. I'm very 0:17:57.040 --> 0:17:59.159 much worried about that. Sorry, I guess I got an 0:17:59.160 --> 0:18:03.000 emergency dealer. UM I'm worried about him picking up injury 0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:04.840 in the same breath that I was worried about Joe 0:18:04.880 --> 0:18:08.280 Burrow last year going to Cincinnati. UM, whereas with Fields 0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:11.560 at least the durability questions not there for me. UM 0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:14.440 and I, you know, the throwing motion is a very 0:18:14.480 --> 0:18:16.879 interesting wrinkle that I haven't heard anyone bring up before. 0:18:17.160 --> 0:18:22.720 And if you know, Shanahan obviously absolute offensive guru. Situation 0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:25.159 and where you land as a quarterback matters almost as 0:18:25.240 --> 0:18:27.199 much as talent in my opinion, in terms of if 0:18:27.240 --> 0:18:29.240 you are going to ultimately be a top ten quarterback 0:18:29.280 --> 0:18:32.240 in this league, and any quarterback lands in Shanahan's system, 0:18:32.359 --> 0:18:34.919 you are already at the head of the curve of 0:18:35.080 --> 0:18:38.680 finding success. I think there's no no doubt about that. UM, 0:18:38.720 --> 0:18:41.520 but I do if the Fields ends up in a 0:18:41.560 --> 0:18:46.000 decent situation as well. UH and Jones has a pretty 0:18:46.000 --> 0:18:48.560 clear stealing in the same way Jared Goff did with 0:18:48.600 --> 0:18:52.360 the Rams. I could see this ultimately being a very 0:18:52.400 --> 0:18:55.280 stressful situation for Shanahan and Lynch long term with the 0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:57.800 San Francist organization, considering what they gave up to move 0:18:57.880 --> 0:19:01.280 up to the spot. It's it's gonna be fascinating. We're 0:19:01.320 --> 0:19:02.879 gonna give people some Betsy. I don't want to go 0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:04.720 down this rabbit hole anymore because we could do an 0:19:04.720 --> 0:19:06.600 hour on this UM but I will just say I 0:19:06.600 --> 0:19:08.920 think the mac Jones, you know, being surrounded by players 0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:12.360 is valid. I think justin fields, being being surrounded by 0:19:12.480 --> 0:19:15.760 nothing but the best players in the country argument is 0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:18.199 valid too. We don't have a plethora of Alabama and 0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:22.240 Ohio state quarterbacks succeeding in the NFL. That could change 0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:24.120 with these two guys. But by the way, I will 0:19:24.160 --> 0:19:26.120 tell you that Trevor Lawrence, and I know this will 0:19:26.119 --> 0:19:29.440 make your head explode, perhaps, Michael, but the last two 0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:33.000 you know, biggest stages, and the one in the National finals, 0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:35.560 one in the National semifinals. I walked away from those 0:19:35.560 --> 0:19:37.800 Trevor Lawrence games and I was like, I don't know, 0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:40.840