Speaker 1: Check it down man, Now Down Now Thursday one, it's
Speaker 1: the Beating the Book podcast, Kill Alexander Live from Circa,
Speaker 1: which I don't believe we've ever done a podcast from
Speaker 1: Circle before. We did from the d all football season.
Speaker 1: But obviously for those watching the video clip on this,
Speaker 1: look at the background. Look how great this place is.
Speaker 1: It's unbelievable here at Circus Sports. Uh and thrilled to
Speaker 1: have an all star cast talk about the draft. First
Speaker 1: of all, my partner on Primetime Action, which we do
Speaker 1: Monday through Friday night, sometimes on MSG plus, sometimes not.
Speaker 1: It's Matt Brown. How you doing, Matt doing well? Doing well?
Speaker 1: Football season MSG plus. Outside of that, that's how we
Speaker 1: that's how we should start saying it right, And that's
Speaker 1: how exactly what she starts stating. And then with the
Speaker 1: with the Circle backdrop, the nighttime dusk circule backdrops from
Speaker 1: the Deep Dive podcast is Drew Dinsy, how are you
Speaker 1: doing man? I'm doing well. Man. We're a week out
Speaker 1: from the draft. This time of years, super fun, love
Speaker 1: all of the looking into the crystal ball of who's
Speaker 1: going to do what in the draft. This is this is,
Speaker 1: this is what it's all about. Dude, I cannot wait.
Speaker 1: We are exactly one week away from the NFL Draft,
Speaker 1: and we'll go through everybody's favorite picks here, favorite props
Speaker 1: that they've already bet obviously on this show, I saved
Speaker 1: the best for last. I was gonna introduce him first,
Speaker 1: but he he went off camera for a second, so
Speaker 1: I didn't wanted to make sure he had time to
Speaker 1: get in to see uh. He is the host Lombardi
Speaker 1: Line at Vison. He has a podcast of his own
Speaker 1: with Adne Invert called GM Shuffle. The name of the
Speaker 1: book is Gridiron Genius writes for the Athletic he has
Speaker 1: worked with all the greats, not all the greats again,
Speaker 1: no Joe Gibbs, but Bill Walsh, Bill Parcels, Bill Belichick,
Speaker 1: Al Davis. It's Michael Lombardi. Thank you for doing this. Michael,
Speaker 1: appreciate it, No no problem. It's nice to be here.
Speaker 1: Thank you. It's good to be here. Michael. Let me
Speaker 1: start with you, um before we get into all of
Speaker 1: our props. Let me start with um the top of
Speaker 1: the draft, because in many respects, this is I think
Speaker 1: the most confusing, maybe not confusing, but the draft that
Speaker 1: I probably know the least about one through six a
Speaker 1: week out in recent memory. Um, if you if you
Speaker 1: are okay with Trevor, not okay with but if you
Speaker 1: believe Trevor Lawrence is absolutely going number one. By the way,
Speaker 1: the surest thing in this draft is Trevor Lawrence tweeting
Speaker 1: out that he's already donating to Jacksonville charity. So he
Speaker 1: is going number one. If you believe Zack Wilson is
Speaker 1: going number two. Though, to the Jets, where are week out?
Speaker 1: Do you stand? And you've been very consistent about this
Speaker 1: on three, Let's start there, you know, I think I
Speaker 1: think let's start with this idea for the better. If
Speaker 1: you want to play props and you want to use
Speaker 1: mock drafts as kind of a guideline for your prop betting,
Speaker 1: I think you have to be strategic in looking at
Speaker 1: each mock. For example, if you want to know what
Speaker 1: the Rams are going to do in the draft or
Speaker 1: perhaps San Francisco, read Peter Schrager's mock because he's pretty
Speaker 1: wired in those organizations. If you want to know what
Speaker 1: the Jets are gonna do or what Baltimore is going
Speaker 1: to do, then make sure you read Daniel Jeremiah's mom
Speaker 1: If you want to know what some other teams do.
Speaker 1: You read Charlie Cassually's mo These are the mocks you
Speaker 1: read because they'll give you a peek into what the
Speaker 1: teams are really thinking. They aren't going to be They're
Speaker 1: not going to be perfect on all the draft. So
Speaker 1: let's like Peter Peter Schrager's draft mock draft. He just
Speaker 1: released it, uh April right. He has exactly the way
Speaker 1: I see it. He has Mac Jones coming to three,
Speaker 1: which is what I think is going to happen. I
Speaker 1: think it's a debate in that organization between Tray Lance
Speaker 1: and Mac Jones. I think the head coach really likes
Speaker 1: mac Jones. He likes his intelligence, he likes his ability
Speaker 1: to control the game with the lie of scrimmage. He
Speaker 1: sees a combination of Matt Ryan, Matt Shob, Kirk Cousins,
Speaker 1: all those players wrapped into Mac Jones. The people on
Speaker 1: the outside of the building don't see that, and some
Speaker 1: in the inside of the building I'll see that they
Speaker 1: favored Trey Lance. So I think, you know, if I
Speaker 1: were a betting man, I would bet Matt Jones at three.
Speaker 1: I would hedge my bet with something on Trey Lancer
Speaker 1: as well. Interesting that Justin Fields was not in that
Speaker 1: conversation for you. By the way, Peter Schreeger has Travis
Speaker 1: Etien going to Washington at nineteen, So do not look
Speaker 1: at Peter Schreeger's draft for Washington specific payers. Let me
Speaker 1: just say that, Yeah, I mean, look that That's why
Speaker 1: I think you have to be really careful. Do you
Speaker 1: have to pick certain teams that you know guys are
Speaker 1: really wired on? Right? You know, go through Peter Schreeger's
Speaker 1: Twitter feed. What stories does he break that that are
Speaker 1: true based on like like for me, like people like
Speaker 1: they if I say something about the Patriots, people tend
Speaker 1: to believe it because they know I talked to the
Speaker 1: head coach. So you know, Carolina, my some works there page,
Speaker 1: you know, but not all drafts, not all mocks are perfect.
Speaker 1: But when you when you have a guy like Charlie
Speaker 1: Castoley who does a good job of collecting information, you
Speaker 1: gotta look at all his information on where he has
Speaker 1: guys going. You can utilize that draft that mock as
Speaker 1: well drew number three. You see it a little differently,
Speaker 1: or at least read the tea leaves differently anyway. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And I mean you know, it's it's really funny how
Speaker 1: there's sort of an asymmetry about the coverage of the
Speaker 1: draft and where actual value betting lies, because if you
Speaker 1: actually think that there's a value play to be made
Speaker 1: on three, you're probably you're probably deluding yourself. I would
Speaker 1: say that there are lots of value draft, you know,
Speaker 1: value propositions down the board at this point. Uh. And
Speaker 1: you know, I personally, while I completely agree with you know,
Speaker 1: Mike's take overall that there you have to do a
Speaker 1: blended approach where you kind of evaluate the quality of
Speaker 1: information across all the marks depending on who's connected to who.
Speaker 1: I would still point to San Francisco and say they
Speaker 1: would be at the top of the board for me
Speaker 1: of a team that has mastered sort of the the
Speaker 1: psy ops, the disinformation campaign and the obscuring you know
Speaker 1: what they ultimately end intend to do. And I think
Speaker 1: this is probably the most important pick that's going to
Speaker 1: happen under the Lynch Shanahan regime. Uh. And the idea
Speaker 1: that they even would have told somebody is that they
Speaker 1: are especially close to like Pete Schreegor, what their true
Speaker 1: intention is I think is I I have suspicion about
Speaker 1: that um and you know, as I look, you know
Speaker 1: that there's a reason that Zack Wilson is like minus
Speaker 1: five thousand to go to the Jets, but Mac Jones
Speaker 1: is like minus one fifty to go to the Niners.
Speaker 1: You know that the Jets are not trying to hide information.
Speaker 1: They're being very out in the open with it, and
Speaker 1: they leak all of the time. You know, it's relatively
Speaker 1: well known when we get to the draft cycle who
Speaker 1: the Jets like. But I would point to the Niners
Speaker 1: even last year and Peter Schreeger's mock he had them
Speaker 1: taking uh, you know, one of the he had them
Speaker 1: taking I think Rugs at thirteen. Overall last year, the
Speaker 1: consensus mocks across the boards where they loved Rugs, they
Speaker 1: loved Judy, they loved Lamb. They were going to get
Speaker 1: one of those three guys and picked their team got
Speaker 1: to them. Uh, Lamb and Judy were available, and rather
Speaker 1: than make those picks, they traded down and took kin
Speaker 1: Law to replace DeForrest Buckner. And it was like you
Speaker 1: couldn't find a single mock in this in the space
Speaker 1: that linked them to kind Law. And it was like, okay, Uh,
Speaker 1: they did a very good job of sort of deceiving
Speaker 1: the fact that they really didn't have eyes for any
Speaker 1: of those three guys when they with their first pick.
Speaker 1: Uh And in their second pick they did use on
Speaker 1: a wide receiver and it was somebody that nobody saw
Speaker 1: coming in Brandon Ayouk. So I would I would say
Speaker 1: that Shanahan is one of the guys that I would
Speaker 1: put the least amount of confidence in anyone saying that
Speaker 1: they've heard with any kind of credibility that they know
Speaker 1: what he would do. Um. I've been into fields at
Speaker 1: three pretty heavily. At this point, I'm prepared to take
Speaker 1: it as a loss. I've been prepared to take as
Speaker 1: a loss since doing it in the first place, because
Speaker 1: I've just been like, I have a tough time swallowing
Speaker 1: how a team gives up so much future capital to
Speaker 1: move up and take mac Jones when the likelihood he
Speaker 1: was going to be there much lower in the draft
Speaker 1: is you know, it just it didn't make sense mathematically,
Speaker 1: It didn't make sense in terms of the value of
Speaker 1: that picked for me, that that would be mac Jones.
Speaker 1: UM and similarly, trade lance, you know, if you're if
Speaker 1: you're leveraging all of this future capital and this goes
Speaker 1: beyond just pick three with the Niners. But if you're
Speaker 1: leveraging so much of your future capital for a player
Speaker 1: that started one year of FCS football, like you've started
Speaker 1: the clock on your the end of your tenure. Right
Speaker 1: if that pick doesn't work out, and there's maybe a
Speaker 1: chance that it doesn't, you know, like, that's that's it,
Speaker 1: that's the end. You know, you've passed on guylike Fields,
Speaker 1: who is you know who I think has a higher floor. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, you may have you may have captured the
Speaker 1: next you know, the next great quarterback in in lance.
Speaker 1: But if it doesn't work out, you know, that's it
Speaker 1: for you. And I have a tough time, you know,
Speaker 1: seeing that people would you know, leverage that much future
Speaker 1: capital for unknown quantities like this Um and then you know,
Speaker 1: just you know, lastly, the Um. The fit between Fields
Speaker 1: in San Francisco, in my opinion is is so strong
Speaker 1: UH and the connection to the through the quarterback collect
Speaker 1: div between Shanahan Uh and UH and Fields going back
Speaker 1: to high school and that that he's a known quantity
Speaker 1: for them. On top of the fact that he was
Speaker 1: an iron man in the semifinal game in college in
Speaker 1: the college football semifinal game played through broken ribs. And
Speaker 1: here's Shanahan, he's dealt with you know, r G three,
Speaker 1: who was a generational talent, his legs going year one. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, he can't stay on the field. He he
Speaker 1: gets Jimmy Garoppolo from the Patriots. Jimmy Garoppolo looks amazing
Speaker 1: down the stretch that first season they trade for him.
Speaker 1: He can't stay on the field. He's made a glass,
Speaker 1: you know. So the idea that Shanahan's kind of I
Speaker 1: would air on the side of a guy that is
Speaker 1: an iron man that's going to take the field even
Speaker 1: with broken ribs, I think is real. And uh, you know,
Speaker 1: the only reason I could think that they would run
Speaker 1: this sort of misinformation campaign, uh, you know, the psy
Speaker 1: ops on on you know, the football media landscape would
Speaker 1: just be to keep the Jets locked in on Wilson
Speaker 1: at too, because I have, I personally think the Fields Wilson,
Speaker 1: the space between those two players in their their potential
Speaker 1: in the NFL is very thin. Uh And Zack Wilson,
Speaker 1: in my mind, is a higher candidate from being an
Speaker 1: NFL bust than Fields is. But um, you know that
Speaker 1: that's that's kind of where I've landed. But with all
Speaker 1: that said, it's the most fun topic to talk about
Speaker 1: in the draft prop space, But there are lots of
Speaker 1: better options for finding betting value for sure. By the
Speaker 1: way I would say this, I would say this, s Gill,
Speaker 1: I'd like to rebut that I would say this, if
Speaker 1: if you really understand Kyle Shanahan and you understand what
Speaker 1: he's looking for, you can't think it's justin fields. If
Speaker 1: you understand, if you've had conversations with Kyle Shanahan about
Speaker 1: what he wants in his offense, about the mechanics of
Speaker 1: throwing the football, about understanding what's going to happen at
Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage, then it's going to either be
Speaker 1: mac Jones or Trey Lance. And I heard all of
Speaker 1: what you said, And if you talk to people that
Speaker 1: have coached with him, if you heard him discuss the
Speaker 1: values of what he sees in the throwing motion. I mean,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of teams in the National Football League
Speaker 1: that have a real concern about justin fields is throwing motion.
Speaker 1: And there is a huge disconnect between most people in
Speaker 1: the league on where they see justin fields you happen
Speaker 1: to see them much higher. But I think it's a
Speaker 1: little bit like valuing art unless you really understand what
Speaker 1: the coach is looking for. And I didn't base my
Speaker 1: pick on mac Jones being there at three based on
Speaker 1: Peter Schrager. I've based it on what people have told
Speaker 1: me that had been in the league. And I haven't
Speaker 1: been with Kyle Shanahan. And if you were to ask
Speaker 1: anybody who has been with Kyle in the room who
Speaker 1: we would pick of them, would say mac Jones is
Speaker 1: the guy. Yeah, I will tell you, Matt, you and
Speaker 1: I on Primetime Action the night of the Niners trading
Speaker 1: up to three for that hall. And by the way,
Speaker 1: what Drew was saying is correct. I mean these the
Speaker 1: line on number three keep slip flopping day after day
Speaker 1: from mac Jones to Justin Fields. At this point in
Speaker 1: terms of who's the favorite, so many more things more
Speaker 1: bettable at this point. But Matt, you and I our
Speaker 1: first reaction was they're drafting anybody but mac Jones. But
Speaker 1: that was more of an assessment. Doesn't mean we don't
Speaker 1: like mac Jones. That was more of an assessment of
Speaker 1: what we believe to be the game of the draft
Speaker 1: and where you could have otherwise gotten Matt Jones. Is
Speaker 1: that fair? And yeah, And I mean listen, I'm I'm
Speaker 1: I very well could be wrong. I think it's Justin
Speaker 1: Fields as well. I very well could be wrong. It
Speaker 1: could be mac Jones. If it is mac Jones, then
Speaker 1: I think one thing will be for certain. They overpaid
Speaker 1: for it because they definitely didn't have to go to
Speaker 1: three to get mac Jones. And so I definitely think
Speaker 1: at the end of this, if there is no if
Speaker 1: it isn't Justin Fields and it's mac Jones, then they
Speaker 1: likely overpaid for it. But I mean, you know, look,
Speaker 1: we look at it Justin Fields here and this is
Speaker 1: a guy him and Trevor Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence is a
Speaker 1: guy that no one's ever wavered on. He has been
Speaker 1: the guy that everyone says is going to be the
Speaker 1: next guy in the next generational talent. Uh. Justin Fields
Speaker 1: was ranked ahead of Trevor Larrence and one of the
Speaker 1: scouting services coming out of high school. Trevor Larrence was
Speaker 1: right to have Justin Fields and the other they come out.
Speaker 1: Everybody is talking about how good these guys are in college.
Speaker 1: If if if Justin Fields had not played this season
Speaker 1: like a Jumar Chase didn't, then we would be arguing
Speaker 1: right now who the number one overall pick in the
Speaker 1: draft would be. Should it be Justin Fields or should
Speaker 1: it be Trevor Long? That would that was what we
Speaker 1: would be arguing right now. No, we wouldn't know. We wouldn't,
Speaker 1: He wouldn't. They were literally mentioned in the same sentence
Speaker 1: every single every single for two years. But the people
Speaker 1: that are mentioning it don't know what they're talking about.
Speaker 1: It's like you can't use a foul a false narrative
Speaker 1: to support a narrative like you're asking people. It's like saying, well,
Speaker 1: this guy is the best player coming out of high
Speaker 1: school running back, so we should talk about him. It's
Speaker 1: about their career, what they do on the field. Like
Speaker 1: that doesn't that doesn't value it. That's not how people
Speaker 1: in the National Football League build a draft board based
Speaker 1: on the conversation Justin Fields has always been. Have you
Speaker 1: talked to anybody at Georgia about Justin Fields? Why he transferred?
Speaker 1: What happened? Do you understand how Jake from beat him out?
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't understand it, but do you I
Speaker 1: don't understand how that happened, but it did. But my
Speaker 1: point here is simply this, Look, I'm not going to
Speaker 1: debate over over and because you know it could if
Speaker 1: it's Justin Fields, that I'm completely wrong. But I think
Speaker 1: the reality of it is, is anybody who thinks that
Speaker 1: we would have a conversation between Justin Fields and Trevor
Speaker 1: Lawrence this summer. We're not watching the same tape. We're
Speaker 1: not watching the same tape, We're not watching the same
Speaker 1: game of football. That was never going to be the case.
Speaker 1: That was never going to be the case. And and
Speaker 1: so for me, it's like, look, he played the senior year,
Speaker 1: you watched him, he did his thing, and you go on.
Speaker 1: I just here's what I don't understand. Matt Jones did
Speaker 1: more in Alabama and I'm not. And if I were
Speaker 1: picking at three, I would take sul the tackle. So
Speaker 1: let me get that out of the way. I'm not
Speaker 1: in love with any of the quarterbacks. I want to
Speaker 1: make this perfectly clear. I'm not defending Mac Jones here,
Speaker 1: but I think there's a real bias going on here
Speaker 1: that you know Matt Jones. Every Alabama player will openly
Speaker 1: tell you, without even asking, without even asking the question,
Speaker 1: who's a better player to or mac Jones. Absolutely absolutely
Speaker 1: mac Jones, not even close. They changed the offense from
Speaker 1: mac Jones. They throw the ball downfield more for mac Jones.
Speaker 1: They did more things to fit his game that was
Speaker 1: more conducive to the pro game than anything. And now
Speaker 1: I know we're not allowed to say a bad word
Speaker 1: about too, but you didn't think Tool was a bad
Speaker 1: picke at the fourth pick in the draft last year,
Speaker 1: But yet you think the third pick is too rich.
Speaker 1: When Kyle Shanahan, I'm told, thought that there's going to
Speaker 1: be teams that trade up into the top five, namely
Speaker 1: New England, namely Carolina, maybe Denver to get mac Jones,
Speaker 1: and he wanted to beat them to the punch. Now
Speaker 1: that could be all wrong, but that's the conversation I will.
Speaker 1: I will go ahead and let this be known for
Speaker 1: the rest of the podcast. I've talked to no head coaches,
Speaker 1: I've talked to no player personnel people. I had no
Speaker 1: one in any any NFL offices. So all of this
Speaker 1: definitely comes from opinion and things that I've that I've
Speaker 1: gotten along the way. I think there's a fundamental disagreement
Speaker 1: as to how good Justin Fields was in college. There
Speaker 1: is a lot of high, high level grading systems out there,
Speaker 1: and again I understand they're not in the NFL offices,
Speaker 1: but Pro Football Focus is pretty highly regarded. He had
Speaker 1: a ninety two point four passing grade through them, deadly
Speaker 1: accurate all of the everything that they're saying, have you
Speaker 1: ever seen have you ever seen the corners that Pro
Speaker 1: Football Focus grades and where they end up grafted and
Speaker 1: how they play? Like I'm just telling you that this
Speaker 1: phenomenon about Pro Football Focus, if they were so right
Speaker 1: on quarterbacks, then why is all of them getting more
Speaker 1: on all of the picks blown? Like do you even
Speaker 1: know who does the quarterbacks for Pro Football Focus? Like
Speaker 1: who grades them? Like I like, I just don't understand,
Speaker 1: Like I mean, I don't be I want to be
Speaker 1: argumented about a podcast, but I'm just not going to,
Speaker 1: you know, Like I'm I don't understand how people can
Speaker 1: kill Mac Jones. And then in the same sentence, I
Speaker 1: don't think to talk about two of them. I don't
Speaker 1: think he's the greatest quarterback, but no people, but I
Speaker 1: think nobody complains about two might end up being a
Speaker 1: better quarterback ultimately than might be. But but realistically the
Speaker 1: but I I just have a tough time having seen
Speaker 1: only film talk to no one that not not ranking
Speaker 1: them sort of in the consensus ranking, which was Lawrence Wilson, Fields,
Speaker 1: Lance Jones, and Jones at five. To me, I completely
Speaker 1: concede that what he did it last year in Alabama
Speaker 1: was awesome. But it was legitimately one of the best
Speaker 1: offensive systems that we've ever seen in college football ever.
Speaker 1: He had one of the most competent offensive lines of
Speaker 1: that you could you could ask for his weapons. He
Speaker 1: was thrown to were you know, future all pro NFL
Speaker 1: players like it was the perfect storm. He didn't have
Speaker 1: to do much. He was in a very comfortable situation.
Speaker 1: And to me, I don't know that he has an
Speaker 1: NFL body personally. I think he needs to put on
Speaker 1: a ton of way to stay healthy. I think if
Speaker 1: you put him behind the San Francisco offensive line and
Speaker 1: he takes shots from NFL players, I'm worried. I'm very
Speaker 1: much worried about that. Sorry, I guess I got an
Speaker 1: emergency dealer. UM I'm worried about him picking up injury
Speaker 1: in the same breath that I was worried about Joe
Speaker 1: Burrow last year going to Cincinnati. UM, whereas with Fields
Speaker 1: at least the durability questions not there for me. UM
Speaker 1: and I, you know, the throwing motion is a very
Speaker 1: interesting wrinkle that I haven't heard anyone bring up before.
Speaker 1: And if you know, Shanahan obviously absolute offensive guru. Situation
Speaker 1: and where you land as a quarterback matters almost as
Speaker 1: much as talent in my opinion, in terms of if
Speaker 1: you are going to ultimately be a top ten quarterback
Speaker 1: in this league, and any quarterback lands in Shanahan's system,
Speaker 1: you are already at the head of the curve of
Speaker 1: finding success. I think there's no no doubt about that. UM,
Speaker 1: but I do if the Fields ends up in a
Speaker 1: decent situation as well. UH and Jones has a pretty
Speaker 1: clear stealing in the same way Jared Goff did with
Speaker 1: the Rams. I could see this ultimately being a very
Speaker 1: stressful situation for Shanahan and Lynch long term with the
Speaker 1: San Francist organization, considering what they gave up to move
Speaker 1: up to the spot. It's it's gonna be fascinating. We're
Speaker 1: gonna give people some Betsy. I don't want to go
Speaker 1: down this rabbit hole anymore because we could do an
Speaker 1: hour on this UM but I will just say I
Speaker 1: think the mac Jones, you know, being surrounded by players
Speaker 1: is valid. I think justin fields, being being surrounded by
Speaker 1: nothing but the best players in the country argument is
Speaker 1: valid too. We don't have a plethora of Alabama and
Speaker 1: Ohio state quarterbacks succeeding in the NFL. That could change
Speaker 1: with these two guys. But by the way, I will
Speaker 1: tell you that Trevor Lawrence, and I know this will
Speaker 1: make your head explode, perhaps, Michael, but the last two
Speaker 1: you know, biggest stages, and the one in the National finals,
Speaker 1: one in the National semifinals. I walked away from those
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence games and I was like, I don't know,
Speaker 1: you know, And he was surrounded by great players too,
Speaker 1: So you know, I may live to eat those words
Speaker 1: for sure. Maybe there's certain things I don't understand about
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence, but I'm not a hundred percent by the
Speaker 1: way Zack Wilson, we don't. There's a lot of questions
Speaker 1: about Zach Wilson, right, So your point is right that
Speaker 1: the questions about all of them, um. But as far
Speaker 1: as the draft is concerned, I guess one week from
Speaker 1: tonight we'll find out who in fact, the Niners do
Speaker 1: pick at and then what happens after that? Four through six?
Speaker 1: I mean that's an even bigger question. Will Atlanta trade out?
Speaker 1: Will they stay in draft Kyle Pitts? Will they stay
Speaker 1: in draft Seul? Uh? If Atlanta trades out, you would
Speaker 1: assume it's for a fourth quarterback. Then what happens at five?
Speaker 1: Will the Bengals take Seul to protect Joe Burrow? Will
Speaker 1: they take Jamar Chase? If if Joe Burrows in their
Speaker 1: ear about his former team, edit l s U. At six,
Speaker 1: you have to figure Jamaar Chase can't go past six.
Speaker 1: So let me just ask it this way, And I've
Speaker 1: asked this of all of you in some different form
Speaker 1: on radio this week. What do you think we do know?
Speaker 1: Give me the one draft prop out there and and
Speaker 1: Jamaar Chase going under six and a half triggers that
Speaker 1: for me, because I think we do know that. Assuming
Speaker 1: Miami stays where they are, they are fielding phone calls
Speaker 1: as well. Is that the play you like the most,
Speaker 1: Michael will start with you? Or is there another one?
Speaker 1: Is it about offensive players? What do you think you
Speaker 1: know for sure? I think Kyle Pitts going below five
Speaker 1: and a half is the one I do know now.
Speaker 1: I say that with Atlanta not trading that pick, which
Speaker 1: I don't think they'll do, but I think Kyle Pitts
Speaker 1: in Atlanta are it makes the most sense to me.
Speaker 1: I think Cincinnati at five, I think it's Suel, but
Speaker 1: I wouldn't say it's a lock. So I don't like
Speaker 1: Suel under six and a half as a lock is
Speaker 1: something that I know. It makes too much sense not
Speaker 1: to pick Seul at six. At five at six, I
Speaker 1: agree with you on Chase, but you know, I've seen
Speaker 1: these drafts where everybody talks offensive line wide receiver, then
Speaker 1: offensive linemen get there, so pits, if the Seul is
Speaker 1: there at six, how do they not take them? So?
Speaker 1: For me, I mean those are the really the ones
Speaker 1: that I feel the most comfortable with. Uh as it
Speaker 1: relates to some of the props. I think justin fields
Speaker 1: for me after four three and a half or above
Speaker 1: is for me a really good pick. I don't know
Speaker 1: where I put Trey Lance in that. Matt, same question.
Speaker 1: I think that my favorite one that I have in
Speaker 1: pocket right now is just total wide receivers over four
Speaker 1: and a half. I mean, again, we we understand, each
Speaker 1: mock draft is is a person's opinion, and each mock
Speaker 1: draft has certain people with different different types of information.
Speaker 1: But if we do kind of go and we look
Speaker 1: at at these wide receivers in these mock drafts, like
Speaker 1: you know, Steve Plazio's has six at his Sam Monson
Speaker 1: has seven, Kuiper has six, mcshaye has six, Brugler has five,
Speaker 1: Ryan Wilson from CBS has five. Sharp Football has six.
Speaker 1: So like there isn't any sort of respected mock draft
Speaker 1: out there that has only four wide receivers going in
Speaker 1: the first round. Now, it's not a bet for every
Speaker 1: bank roll because you do have to lay about I
Speaker 1: think at this point it's gotten up to like two
Speaker 1: fifty or two sixty. I got it fortunately a little
Speaker 1: bit earlier. I think I got it at to twenty.
Speaker 1: But um, you know, again, if you do have that
Speaker 1: type of bankroll, Um, what we do know for sure?
Speaker 1: I mean, I thought, I think anyone's arguing that that
Speaker 1: Chase Smith, Waddle and and more seemed to be the
Speaker 1: consensus guys that are definitely going to the first. We
Speaker 1: see a lot with Bateman going in the first, and
Speaker 1: the most of them have Bateman and more going in
Speaker 1: the first Harris Marshall moving into a lot of the
Speaker 1: first rounds as well, and then even you know, again
Speaker 1: the same Monson Profole focus has seven he has he
Speaker 1: has Rondel Moore from Purdue going in the first. So
Speaker 1: I mean there's there's at least a good number of
Speaker 1: guys there that we could make sense for all of
Speaker 1: them going in the first round. And so I really
Speaker 1: do like the over four and a half a lot. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I grabbed that one. I had minus two fifty, So
Speaker 1: I was willing to lay a lot of these. By
Speaker 1: the way, I've laid ridiculous. You and I think have
Speaker 1: Chase under six and a half later or was it
Speaker 1: first wide receiver drafted? I laid um minus there it
Speaker 1: his first wide receiver to be drafted minus five fifty.
Speaker 1: I have no problem. I just got an under one
Speaker 1: and a half on tight ends. Kyle Pittson proved me wrong.
Speaker 1: I just laid minus three. And so that's the other
Speaker 1: thing about these drafts. You would lay prices in a
Speaker 1: way that you never I don't know about never, but
Speaker 1: most likely not be willing to lay in actual you know,
Speaker 1: sporting events drew you have the same answer, did you
Speaker 1: not with the wide receivers it was something else offensive players?
Speaker 1: I believe, Yeah, I mean it's all the same bet effectively. Um,
Speaker 1: you're you know, the macro trend in the NFL is
Speaker 1: pretty clear. We're running more three wide receiver sets. That
Speaker 1: means two things. You need. You need wide receiver bodies
Speaker 1: to you know, to absorb those targets, and you need
Speaker 1: a better offensive line because you're putting more stress on
Speaker 1: them by not giving them as much tight end help.
Speaker 1: Like that's the macro trend that you're seeing across most
Speaker 1: offenses and that are being run in the NFL right now. Uh.
Speaker 1: And on top of that, you have a bumper crop
Speaker 1: of tackles and wide receivers in this year's draft. Um.
Speaker 1: And so the likelihood that we see you know, six
Speaker 1: to seven offensive linemen is high. The likelihood that we
Speaker 1: see um, you know, five to six wide receivers, it's high. Uh.
Speaker 1: And then I think you know, almost without with with
Speaker 1: almost certainty, you're gonna see five quarterbacks in one tight end.
Speaker 1: So right there, you know you're your with eighteen and
Speaker 1: eighteen nineteen offensive players. Um. And then one surprise of
Speaker 1: you know, one running back. Potentially two running backs have
Speaker 1: been you know, commonly mocked lately. Um, you know that
Speaker 1: would put you over the top. So offensive players over
Speaker 1: I think is still quite solid, although we've seen a
Speaker 1: ton of movement in that in the last forty eight hours.
Speaker 1: So it's getting too close to the place where I think,
Speaker 1: you know, they've they've about settled on fair price. Um.
Speaker 1: The the rest of the top ten and the interesting
Speaker 1: things to talk about and the high confidence picks just
Speaker 1: aren't really there this year. UM. I agree with Mike
Speaker 1: that Kyle pits as an underplay makes a ton of
Speaker 1: sense because I do think Atlanta is going to be
Speaker 1: stuck at four and best player available at that point
Speaker 1: in time would g Kyle Pits. Um. And then, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, the Bengals. I think Sewell versus Chase is
Speaker 1: pretty much a coin flip at this point, um, depending
Speaker 1: on which day you happen to be cruising, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: the draft information space, the Bengals have either decided one
Speaker 1: or the other, and depending on which source, UM, I
Speaker 1: can make a case that the Bengals, having invested a
Speaker 1: lot of first round draft capital over the last handful
Speaker 1: of years in offensive line with relatively little return, and
Speaker 1: then Mike Brown going out and signing Riley Reef, albeit
Speaker 1: not a great player, but giving him money, um to
Speaker 1: come in and play tackle. Uh is probably enough of
Speaker 1: a uh you know, enough of us sway that if
Speaker 1: I'm the Dolphins and I covet Jamaar Chase, I'm sweating
Speaker 1: them picking that naking that fifth pick, because I would
Speaker 1: maybe make it Chase sel at the at just at
Speaker 1: this moment, and uh, you know, it's it's possible that
Speaker 1: the Dolphins moved up back into that six spot with
Speaker 1: no recognizing that between Pits, Seul and Chase, you have
Speaker 1: three future All pros, and one of those guys is
Speaker 1: going to follow to us. We don't really care who, um,
Speaker 1: but just kind of the way that roster is constructed,
Speaker 1: I think they'd need more offensive weapons. And if they
Speaker 1: end up with Sewel instead of Pits and Chase, I
Speaker 1: think they may have a little bit of regret for
Speaker 1: what they gave up to go from to the six. Uh.
Speaker 1: Is Patrick Sartan to Dallas at ten? The player and
Speaker 1: the team you've seen the most matched in mocks met Yeah, um,
Speaker 1: you know this one. Actually, there there's a site you
Speaker 1: can go to that aggregates all these things. And basically
Speaker 1: he has been from the beginning of March until yesterday,
Speaker 1: he had been mocked to the Cowboys of the mock
Speaker 1: drafts out there. Um, and they're the ones that weren't
Speaker 1: it was Caleb Farley, So I mean it basically we're
Speaker 1: it's basically a corner for the Cowboys. And basically every
Speaker 1: single one of these mocks that are getting put out there,
Speaker 1: it was either certain Or or Caleb Farley and just
Speaker 1: about every one of them. I mean they were twenty
Speaker 1: one a gainst the past tv O a twenty seven
Speaker 1: coverage grade. So I mean it makes perfect sense. Here
Speaker 1: they went and they did offense last year. You come
Speaker 1: back first round this year and get a corner in there,
Speaker 1: and being a passing league as as as Drew mentioned,
Speaker 1: I mean being a passing league either pass rushers or
Speaker 1: guys that can cover and so, um, it makes a
Speaker 1: lot of sense for him. I think the under ten
Speaker 1: and a half which is still available out there, is
Speaker 1: pretty viable for him. I think him being the first
Speaker 1: defensive player taken is pretty viable as well. Um that
Speaker 1: I think that whenever you kind of look at how again,
Speaker 1: there's likely to be a trade that we're not thinking
Speaker 1: about that's gonna happen somewhere along the way before it
Speaker 1: gets to the Cowboys. But you know, as we sit
Speaker 1: right now, at least if you kind of go through
Speaker 1: and you peg these things down, it looks like he's
Speaker 1: gonna he could be the first defensive player taken as well. Michael,
Speaker 1: let me ask it this way, what's the team? And
Speaker 1: you know these guys as well as anybody, what's what's
Speaker 1: the team that you always go into these drafts and
Speaker 1: you're like, this is the team most likely to do
Speaker 1: something stupid? Uh? You know, I mean I think you
Speaker 1: know the Bengals don't take the offensive tackle that qualifies
Speaker 1: the stupidity. I mean, you know, they just watched the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, you know. I know Jamaar Chase is a great,
Speaker 1: nice player, and I think he'd be on. But soon
Speaker 1: you're talking about a Pro Bowl left tackle for twelve years.
Speaker 1: You know, like, seriously, you're you're not gonna take that
Speaker 1: and your quarterback? I mean, you know, like there's no
Speaker 1: way that doesn't make sense. So and then I think
Speaker 1: lately the way the Giants have behaved, I don't think
Speaker 1: they behave in a manner that's typical to what they do.
Speaker 1: They've been all over the place. I mean, just take
Speaker 1: this for example. I mean, they go ahead and pay
Speaker 1: a ton of money to sign a Dory Jackson, who
Speaker 1: I like coming out in the draft. But had they
Speaker 1: traded a seventh round pick to Tennessee who was offering
Speaker 1: a Dorry Jackson for a seventh if if if right,
Speaker 1: they were ready to give them to you, they would
Speaker 1: have saved fourteen million dollars if they make that trade.
Speaker 1: So they just told you the seventh is more valuable
Speaker 1: than fourteen million. Tell me how that makes sense, because
Speaker 1: they would have taken they would have taken the contract
Speaker 1: of a Dorry Jackson which owed him ten million, as
Speaker 1: opposed to give him twenty four million. What should they
Speaker 1: drafted eleven white out? Oh no, they know they just
Speaker 1: signed Golladay and paid him twenty million dollars. I mean
Speaker 1: you draft another ride out. I mean, how much you've
Speaker 1: got to have at the position. They still have Stir Shepherd,
Speaker 1: they still have a Slayton plan for them. I'm not
Speaker 1: saying they're great that they have no right side of
Speaker 1: their offensive line. Look at their offensive line, you know,
Speaker 1: they signed the kid from Houston, uh last year. I
Speaker 1: mean who played for Houston last year who wasn't very good? Fulton,
Speaker 1: Zach Fulton. You know they don't have a right tackle.
Speaker 1: They have a kid who was a college free agent
Speaker 1: at right tackle. They can't function as an offense without it.
Speaker 1: You know, they're really in trouble there. Let me go
Speaker 1: through some of the Let me go through all of
Speaker 1: the of the draft bets that I have made so far. Um,
Speaker 1: I don't know if we can show these on the screen,
Speaker 1: but justin fields, I have at the second overall pick
Speaker 1: and at the third overall pick, second overall pick eight
Speaker 1: to one third overall at plus one forty. I didn't
Speaker 1: get the best number on third, but yes, I I
Speaker 1: played him at second too, because I'm not one thousand
Speaker 1: percent convinced that Zack Wilson is going to the Jets.
Speaker 1: Then some of the ones we've talked about over seventeen
Speaker 1: and a half offensive players drafted minus one seventy over
Speaker 1: four and a half, wide outs drafted minus to fifty.
Speaker 1: These are all bets that I already have in pocket.
Speaker 1: Jamaar Chase first white out to be drafted minus five five.
Speaker 1: Do you mentioned that earlier, willing to lay the uh
Speaker 1: the hammer on that one. Then I have Chase under six,
Speaker 1: Chase under six and a half at various prices minus
Speaker 1: two fifty and minus two forty, respectively. Terence Marshall h
Speaker 1: Terris Marshall rather, who would be the second L s
Speaker 1: U player in the second L s U wide out
Speaker 1: to go in the first half? I didn't in first round. Rather,
Speaker 1: I didn't get him at the best number here at
Speaker 1: circle was eighty minutes late to the desk here at
Speaker 1: nine am on Saturday, only got here at ten twenty.
Speaker 1: But he was the one player where the line I
Speaker 1: still betted after the line moved a little bit, so
Speaker 1: I went Terrice Marshall under thirty and a half, figuring
Speaker 1: in the Ravens at twenty seven were really the fulcrum
Speaker 1: for him. Pits under five and a half a couple
Speaker 1: of times, Seoul over five and a half because I
Speaker 1: do think the Bengals will mess around and not pick him.
Speaker 1: And then mac Jones under nine and a half, just
Speaker 1: because I liked that line that they said at nine
Speaker 1: and a half. There's two others I made more recently
Speaker 1: under one and a half on tight ends I laid
Speaker 1: minus three eighty at the south Point and just now beforehand,
Speaker 1: and Michael, I'll ask you about this. I just met
Speaker 1: the Chargers at thirteen or wherever they make their first pick.
Speaker 1: Currently slidded at thirteen to draft an offensive lineman. First,
Speaker 1: I only laid minus one twenty. I haven't seen a
Speaker 1: mock out there that doesn't have him drafting an offensive lineman.
Speaker 1: How do you feel about the Chargers, Well, I think
Speaker 1: the Charges are definitely drafting an offensive lineman. I don't
Speaker 1: know why you won't give up on the On the Jets,
Speaker 1: they're definitely taken Wilson. I mean that's been in the
Speaker 1: cards once he passed their physical, Once they felt comfortable,
Speaker 1: that's when they traded Donald. The other thing, I think
Speaker 1: you're going to get bit on his Terrence Marshall. He
Speaker 1: he had a truck time with his physical. He has
Speaker 1: slid down the board. I would say right now he's
Speaker 1: probably the eighth receiver on the board based on medical. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I made the Justin Fields pick a while back, so
Speaker 1: I probably to your point, wouldn't have made that today. Um.
Speaker 1: Obviously I've turned Marshal the wide receiver the Justin Fields
Speaker 1: second pick In other words, I wouldn't have made today
Speaker 1: partner Tara's Marshall under thirty and a half. That was
Speaker 1: the one in one exception I made in terms of movement.
Speaker 1: But you're you're point is noted, Drew. What else have
Speaker 1: you bet? Um? I got ahead of the Farley steam
Speaker 1: on the over his medicals are concerned. I think he's
Speaker 1: going to slide into the twenties. Um some and the
Speaker 1: flip flip side of that is um uh J C
Speaker 1: Horn uh is I. I have a tough time seeing
Speaker 1: him go past their team, honestly, Um, and realistically the
Speaker 1: you know you brought up Patrick Curtan to the Cowboys earlier.
Speaker 1: I get it that's a great fit. Um. I get
Speaker 1: it that the mock drafters look at need for the
Speaker 1: Cowboys and just slot him there because they evaluate Certain
Speaker 1: as the best option at cornerback. So obviously I'll go first.
Speaker 1: But I actually haven't really seen any true connection that
Speaker 1: Cowboys are all on, all in on Certain. I could
Speaker 1: see them look for a Horn. I think there are
Speaker 1: a lot of minds in the NFL that see Horn
Speaker 1: is a better long term prospect at cornerback than n
Speaker 1: ser tam Um. Similarly, the Eagles need a cornerback, they
Speaker 1: could take Horn at twelve uh and then um, you
Speaker 1: know that I could see I've heard rumors that both
Speaker 1: the Chargers UH and the and the Arizona Cardinals are
Speaker 1: very high on Horn as well, and I've been making
Speaker 1: calls recently to try to trade into the range where
Speaker 1: he would be available. UM. So I think the Horn
Speaker 1: market is getting hot and he will go earlier than
Speaker 1: people are mocking currently. Uh. Similarly, Rashawn Slater, the second
Speaker 1: offensive lineman off the board, I think is going to
Speaker 1: go a lot higher than his original line that was posted.
Speaker 1: I bet pretty heavily into under thirteen and a half,
Speaker 1: under eleven and a half, and I could see the
Speaker 1: landing spots for Slater all over the place between seven
Speaker 1: and eleven. Um. You know that you've kind of you
Speaker 1: get the feeling that a lot of times you have
Speaker 1: gms who are somewhat on the rocks or a little
Speaker 1: bit under pressure. Um, and you know you have you
Speaker 1: can do one of two things. You can make a
Speaker 1: risky pick and take a quarterback of the future, in
Speaker 1: which case you kind of start the clock on your tenure.
Speaker 1: Or you can take an offensive tackle and that's a
Speaker 1: lot safer play. And I can see a lot of
Speaker 1: kind of you know, got a lot of guys in
Speaker 1: the range of seven to eleven you know opts for
Speaker 1: the ladder there. Uh, there's been some you know, some
Speaker 1: politicking first slater that he potentially is as good, if
Speaker 1: not better prospect and school. I don't see that, but
Speaker 1: if someone else does and there in that range, then
Speaker 1: he could go a little bit earlier than people are
Speaker 1: expecting as well. A tale what you got I have,
Speaker 1: as we've talked acknowledge, I have, I got four and
Speaker 1: a half wide receiver's first round. I've got Justin Fields
Speaker 1: under four and a half as opposed to three and
Speaker 1: a half. So uh, it does give me an extra
Speaker 1: chance there if he doesn't happen to go three, which
Speaker 1: I also have Justin Field's going number three pick overall.
Speaker 1: But if he doesn't, someone getting getting antsy and trying
Speaker 1: to trade with the Falcons to get him at four.
Speaker 1: So I do have him utter four and a half,
Speaker 1: have Jamar Chase under six and a half, have Jamar
Speaker 1: Chase first wide receiver taken. I have Micah Parsons first
Speaker 1: linebacker taken. And this is strictly This is based off
Speaker 1: of absolutely no intel other than the fact that nine
Speaker 1: two percent of every single mock draft that has been
Speaker 1: put on put out there has Michael Parsons is at
Speaker 1: first linebacker taken. They could be wrong, they is certainly
Speaker 1: there's still an eight percent chance, and that means some
Speaker 1: of the time it doesn't happen, or trades or any
Speaker 1: kind of anything like that. But I was willing to
Speaker 1: to lay the juice of that one have Cowboys to
Speaker 1: take a defensive player as their first pick. Um, and
Speaker 1: I did go ahead and take certain under ten and
Speaker 1: a half as well. Um. Drew makes some good points
Speaker 1: the one, Like I said, they it is all over
Speaker 1: the place as far as what people seem to be
Speaker 1: the smoke around the Cowboys could be certain, could be far,
Speaker 1: They could be horn even um with with that, but
Speaker 1: certain being the one that at least is most often mentioned.
Speaker 1: I did go ahead and go there with that one
Speaker 1: as well. I I, you know, I've been looking around
Speaker 1: and I think this is one of those ones guys
Speaker 1: that I think we've kind of we kind of alluded
Speaker 1: to it at least a little bit here at the beginning.
Speaker 1: But uh, and Drew, I think you might have even
Speaker 1: said it. But as far as as far as value goes, now,
Speaker 1: as we sit a week out and looking, I mean,
Speaker 1: unless we get some sort of wave of information, unless
Speaker 1: we get some sort of you know, insider stuff that
Speaker 1: seems to be you know, accurate or whatever, I'm having
Speaker 1: a hard time pulling much more um out of this.
Speaker 1: It's it's I was. I've been digging through this as
Speaker 1: as much as I possibly can over the last week
Speaker 1: and a half. And I like the ones that I've got,
Speaker 1: and I've liked the ones that I've got in pocket.
Speaker 1: But I don't think I'm gonna be betting just for
Speaker 1: the just for the hell of it and just for
Speaker 1: the sake of betting here, and I don't I don't
Speaker 1: think that there's a lot to to really pull out
Speaker 1: of this anymore. I I agree with that overall sentiment
Speaker 1: at this point. I will say this, I'm rooting for
Speaker 1: comedy at this point. The three most comical things I
Speaker 1: think that could happen, uh, the Raiders drafting Jalen Waddle
Speaker 1: at seventeen just just based on sheer speed at wide
Speaker 1: out that they would go crazy again. The Packers drafting
Speaker 1: a quarterback obviously would be ridiculous. The Cowboys trading up
Speaker 1: for Kyle Pitts, which we've kind of heard a buzz
Speaker 1: or two about, would be absolutely ridiculous too, in their
Speaker 1: attempt to have maybe the number one offense and the
Speaker 1: number thirty two defense in the NFL, that would be ridiculous. Um,
Speaker 1: they might have that anyway. They they might have that anyway.
Speaker 1: That's right, Um, Michael. I didn't want to ask a
Speaker 1: couple random questions though before before we close this out,
Speaker 1: though twenty four Matt and I talked about this on
Speaker 1: Primetime Action last night. I had Warren Sharp on a
Speaker 1: numbers game first thing this week, and he went off
Speaker 1: on how ridiculous it would be if the Pittsburgh Steelers
Speaker 1: drafted a running back at twenty four. And one of
Speaker 1: the things that I'm very cognizant of is, listen, the
Speaker 1: draft is an in exact science to begin with, As
Speaker 1: you point out, I mean, like the play, the people
Speaker 1: who are picking themselves don't necessarily know how how these
Speaker 1: players will pay it out, let alone those of us
Speaker 1: who then chime in afterwards. But one of the things
Speaker 1: that I do feel like I can comment about is
Speaker 1: the game of the draft, where you ought to pick
Speaker 1: players and where you ought not twenty four, though, if
Speaker 1: the Steelers drafted Naji Harris, I can't see myself getting
Speaker 1: that worked up about it. He was really worked up
Speaker 1: about them drafting running back in twenty four. Where do
Speaker 1: you stand on that? You know, I think it depends
Speaker 1: on the value of the board. I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: if there's something, if they had an offensive lineman that
Speaker 1: they felt really good about, you know, then certainly you
Speaker 1: could say, well, we could trade back up in the
Speaker 1: second and we'll get one of these facts. I think
Speaker 1: it's easy for guys to be critical of where you
Speaker 1: take a guy. It really matters how they play. I mean,
Speaker 1: Harris is a really good back. I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not in love with draft and running
Speaker 1: backs in the top ten. I think once you get
Speaker 1: past that, you've got to look at the player and
Speaker 1: what he contributes. You know, if they want Ben, I mean,
Speaker 1: it would make sense if they drafted a quarterback because
Speaker 1: Ben is not going to play it next year very
Speaker 1: at a high level. He didn't play at a high
Speaker 1: level this year, so you know, I mean, they can
Speaker 1: they get their quarterback of their future if there's a
Speaker 1: guy there they like they should take it. I doubt
Speaker 1: if there'll be a guy there that they like, but
Speaker 1: they got to try to get a good player on
Speaker 1: their team somewhere. And running back an offensive line are
Speaker 1: the two places that they have the biggest holes, along
Speaker 1: with defensive line. I think the Steelers are going to
Speaker 1: take a giant step backwards. To me, I think the
Speaker 1: one thing we've missed on and with the Cowboys is
Speaker 1: there's a lot of conversation that Cowboys taking an offensive
Speaker 1: lineman because Tyrod Smith is not healthy. They could move
Speaker 1: Collins over to left tackle and they need a right tackle.
Speaker 1: And the Cowboys, obviously they're They're probably most impactful draft
Speaker 1: ever was them choosing not to take Johnny Manziel and
Speaker 1: going offensive lineman twice some years ago. That really changed
Speaker 1: around that franchise. Drew you were, where do you stand
Speaker 1: on twenty four? I'm just curious about if they picked
Speaker 1: Naji Harris because how many times did we watch Obama
Speaker 1: game and we're like this, dude, Mac Jones is great,
Speaker 1: Davante Smith is great, but Naji Harris is the best
Speaker 1: player on the field. I don't I don't really have
Speaker 1: I'm kind of in the same boat where you know,
Speaker 1: there's there's It's easy to make a case that picking
Speaker 1: and running back in the first round is a mistake.
Speaker 1: It's pretty easy to point two teams that have done
Speaker 1: this in the near in the recent uh you know,
Speaker 1: recent past. I don't think of Rashod Penny Sonny Michelle.
Speaker 1: You know there there are a lot of examples of um,
Speaker 1: you know, even last year, Clyde Edwards Hilaire for the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: you know, like would would a would a little bit
Speaker 1: of offensive line depth been a better call and pick
Speaker 1: thirty two probably, um, you know, and and and for
Speaker 1: at least for the kind of the current state of
Speaker 1: the NFL. I want a running back who's got good hands,
Speaker 1: who's you know, got multiple uh, you know, multiple ways
Speaker 1: he can impact a game, not just via the you know,
Speaker 1: the handoff. And I want a guy that can get
Speaker 1: you know, get the short get the hard yards, get
Speaker 1: the short yardage. Um. And I want But you can
Speaker 1: find those sort of guys, you know, in the free
Speaker 1: agency market, in the you know, via trade for low
Speaker 1: impact draft capital, or in the second round of the draft.
Speaker 1: And so I wouldn't be shocked if we see running
Speaker 1: back slide in general, However, Naja Harris does stand out
Speaker 1: as you know, kind of a pretty pretty unique talent
Speaker 1: and a huge character guy as well for a lot
Speaker 1: of locker rooms. And we know the Steelers build through
Speaker 1: culture through a large degree, and if they feel like
Speaker 1: Naja Harris fits their culture and uh and or you know,
Speaker 1: all the best offensive linemen are off the board by
Speaker 1: the time they're picking. I could see that happening. And
Speaker 1: I'm not really going to be especially critical of them,
Speaker 1: you know, you know, I'm not going to be especially
Speaker 1: critical if they do that. But I also say their
Speaker 1: offensive line in Pittsburgh is in such a poor state
Speaker 1: that it really doesn't matter who's running the ball. I
Speaker 1: don't think you're going to get a ton of production. Uh.
Speaker 1: So I would say, you know, hold you you know,
Speaker 1: hold your horses if you're in like the Dynasty Fantasy
Speaker 1: draft situation or something like that, expecting he's going to
Speaker 1: make a huge impact for the Steelers in year one. Drew,
Speaker 1: you said, all fair, you said you're saving something for
Speaker 1: the podcast. Did I did you already get that out there? Well,
Speaker 1: I think we've talked about most of the good stuff,
Speaker 1: but you know, just a couple of other guys that
Speaker 1: I've seen on the rise. There are a couple, you know,
Speaker 1: as you go down the board, there's a couple of
Speaker 1: guys that I think there's still some value on. Um.
Speaker 1: I'm getting the sense that there's a pretty decent buzz
Speaker 1: around to Sante Samuel Jr. I have his under forty
Speaker 1: one and a half, and I can see that number
Speaker 1: is already on the move into the thirties. Um. You know, cornerback,
Speaker 1: it's again, it's it's it's a tricky position because you out,
Speaker 1: you know, there's a there's a shortage of good cornerback
Speaker 1: talent across the league. So Andy, there are some good
Speaker 1: cornerbacks in this draft. Um, But expecting to get a
Speaker 1: guy that's going to make a year when impact of
Speaker 1: cornerback is pretty uh, is pretty um ambitious. Uh. You
Speaker 1: saw some pretty talented cornerbacks last year really not be
Speaker 1: able to do much in year one. And it wouldn't
Speaker 1: shock me if teams are a little bit less, a
Speaker 1: little bit hesitant to use Round one capital and cornerbacks
Speaker 1: this year. Um. But Sante Samuel Jr. Looks like a
Speaker 1: solid player to me and a long term contributor for
Speaker 1: a you know, a defense that's in need of a cornerback,
Speaker 1: and I think he's going to be sought after either
Speaker 1: at the end of around one or the top around two. Um.
Speaker 1: And then a couple of linebackers that I've gotten, I've
Speaker 1: I've heard, Uh, the two Miami edge rushers are falling
Speaker 1: pretty quickly. Both Jalen Phillips and Gregory Rousseau, for whatever reason,
Speaker 1: seemed to be lower on draft boards than sort of
Speaker 1: the talent evaluators would have thought. Um, those guys are falling,
Speaker 1: falling fast. Um. And then but a couple of these
Speaker 1: linebackers do seem to be picking up steam. The Tulsa
Speaker 1: linebackers Aven Collins is one uh. The Kentucky linebacker Jim
Speaker 1: and Davis is one uh. And Michael Parsons, I'm not
Speaker 1: entirely sold on, is going to go at LB one.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take a couple of long term swings
Speaker 1: there and and and take both um, both Jim and
Speaker 1: Davis and Zavian Collins as LB one. Oh okay, Um,
Speaker 1: that's that is really the wild card of this draft.
Speaker 1: Gil Brandt, who's seen decades worth of drafts, was saying
Speaker 1: the other day that that's the this will be the
Speaker 1: strangest draft because we have so many players. Not so many,
Speaker 1: but there's a handful of really top players. You just
Speaker 1: mentioned Michael Parsons, Jamaar Chase falls under this category obviously
Speaker 1: as well. That took the year off, and so you
Speaker 1: really you don't know penasl right. You think you know
Speaker 1: what you're getting, you don't exactly know what you're getting.
Speaker 1: Matt alluded to it earlier with Justin Fields. Had he
Speaker 1: not played, I don't know how would how we'd be
Speaker 1: talking about him. Um. Last thing, Michael, we leave with you,
Speaker 1: because the very first thing you said was look at
Speaker 1: certain mock drafts where guys no certain franchises better than others.
Speaker 1: You alluded to it. You know the New England Patriots
Speaker 1: better than any one. Um, what do you think they do?
Speaker 1: I think they you know, if they have so many
Speaker 1: draft picks, I think if there's a receiver that slips
Speaker 1: into the UH ten, eleven and twelve range, I think
Speaker 1: they go get them. They'll try to go get them.
Speaker 1: I think that could make sense if they felt like
Speaker 1: they could uh. If they can't uh and they've stuck
Speaker 1: at fifteen, I think they would look for the best
Speaker 1: offensive lineman, or trade back and take a receiver, a
Speaker 1: second receiver, a guy that maybe is not a lot
Speaker 1: of people think as a high first rounder that they
Speaker 1: would take at the bottom of the first So I
Speaker 1: think those are their options. I think that's what they
Speaker 1: look for. I don't think they would trade up to
Speaker 1: get a quarterback. I don't think. I don't think that
Speaker 1: they fit. I don't think they fit into the uh
Speaker 1: the narrative of of of Justin Fields. I think it
Speaker 1: would be if they traded, if they wanted to, they
Speaker 1: would trade to get someone like a trade lance that
Speaker 1: they could develop within a year. I don't I don't
Speaker 1: see the mechanical element of Justin Fields fitting how they
Speaker 1: throw the black. If you sat down with Tom Brady
Speaker 1: and studied quarterback throwing and you asked Tom Brady to
Speaker 1: critique Justin Fields is throwing motion, Tom would have a
Speaker 1: disortation on it. And and I've listened to Tom talked
Speaker 1: about quarterbacks mechanics and it's throwing and the elbow, and
Speaker 1: I think that's probably the biggest concern the teams that
Speaker 1: value the mechanics of the quarterback have with Justin It's
Speaker 1: very interesting. We'll all know the answers to all these questions.
Speaker 1: One week from tonight, UM appreciated Michael Lombardi, who just
Speaker 1: got off the Lombardio. Thank you, Michael, appreciate it. Lombardi Line,
Speaker 1: GM Shuffle, grid Iron Genius, the name of the book.
Speaker 1: Thank you, sir. Drew did Sick from the Deep Dive
Speaker 1: podcast also contributed to Visan and of course UM at
Speaker 1: NBC Sports Edge as well. Thank you, Drew, appreciate the
Speaker 1: circuit backdrop man. They appreciate it as well. That you
Speaker 1: do that, UM, and we'll talk next week. Matt Brown
Speaker 1: from Prime Him Action, who I will see momentarily to
Speaker 1: do our thing. By the way, the finest radio show
Speaker 1: there ever was That's what I'm billy it now nothing.
Speaker 1: I agree, I agree, I agree. I like that stuff
Speaker 1: in a little and sometimes TV show and sometimes TV show,
Speaker 1: you know, when there's football being play. Thank you all,
Speaker 1: man appreciate it so much. We look forward to the draft.
Speaker 1: Thank you all for listening to the Beating the Book podcast.
Speaker 1: Good luck with all your draft props from all of
Speaker 1: Yeah