1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,880 Speaker 1: All right, team, we have a special treat today for you. 2 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:06,360 Speaker 1: James al Tucher joins US now. He's an American hedge 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:10,720 Speaker 1: fund manager, author, podcaster, entrepreneur. He's founded over twenty companies, 4 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:15,720 Speaker 1: and he's host of the James Altucher podcast. Mister al Tucher, Hello, sir, 5 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: but so happy to be on your show up and 6 00:00:19,160 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 1: I've been listening ever since back when you're at the Blaze. Wow. 7 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 1: Is that that is a high compliment. That's like I 8 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:30,040 Speaker 1: left the Blaze four years ago. So yeah, I started 9 00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: almost ten years ago now, so it's been a while. Mama. 10 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:34,159 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us. I know you, 11 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: like me, are in NYC. Your background book selection that 12 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:42,199 Speaker 1: I can see here is more impressive than mine, which 13 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:45,559 Speaker 1: indicates greater square footage in your apartment. So lucky you, 14 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 1: because I'm going stir crazy over here. But how are you? 15 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:52,599 Speaker 1: First off, how are you doing in lockdown? You know? 16 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: For me, personally, I don't like going outside. I don't 17 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 1: like traveling. I had all sorts of trips scheduled for 18 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 1: March and Abril and I was very happy to cancel them. 19 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 1: I was going to Austin, Houston, California, Florida, DC, Winnipeg. 20 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 1: All the trips were canceled. I'm so grateful, but I 21 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 1: do every day just I don't know what it is. 22 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 1: I just um, you know, just like you, I've been 23 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 1: reporting and covering this economic lockdown and of course the virus, 24 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 1: and it's just horrible. The effect on society is so 25 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 1: much suffering from of course of course the virus, but 26 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 1: also the economics shutdown and effects three hundred million people. 27 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,320 Speaker 1: And you know, it's the world's biggest economy, seven billion 28 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 1: people around the world. And so you know, I think 29 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 1: we all, no matter how we are personally, we all 30 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 1: feel the herd anxiety of nobody's working, nobody's producing, everyone's scared, 31 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 1: everyone's anxious. And you know, no one, no one is 32 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 1: uh one could defend themselves from that. No matter rich 33 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: or or sacre healthy, You're going to feel the anxiety 34 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: of the world in moments like this. How do you 35 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:12,680 Speaker 1: think our leadership so far has responded to this? Where 36 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 1: do you think the balance is. There's obviously the virus 37 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 1: in the economy. It feels like there's been a shift 38 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 1: to the recognition that the economy can't just be something 39 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: that we stick in the deep freezer until we decide 40 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 1: to thaw it out. What do you think about what 41 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 1: we've done so far with this nationwide lockdown? Are you 42 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 1: following what Europe has done, what different cases have been 43 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 1: like there with the nation state level, what Sweden has 44 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:39,239 Speaker 1: done in their approach. You know, how do you gauge 45 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: all that? Yeah, Buck, it's a good question. I've been 46 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 1: following everything on. I've talked to members. I've actually talked 47 00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:49,079 Speaker 1: to members of the Federaliser the other day I was 48 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 1: talking to the debut chairman of the stable has been. 49 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 1: I've talked to economists like Tyler Cohen or Marginal Revolution, 50 00:02:56,560 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 1: other economists. I've talked to the top imiologists and immunologists 51 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:04,359 Speaker 1: at Imperial College, which was the first one out of 52 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:08,120 Speaker 1: all the kind of doom and gloom UH scenarios and 53 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:11,960 Speaker 1: mathematical models. So I've been a little all over the 54 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 1: place just trying to figure it out for my own audience. 55 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 1: And I think, I think, you know, the economy is 56 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 1: not a light switch. You can't turn it off and 57 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 1: then turn it on three months later expecting it's just 58 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 1: gonna it's gonna be just as glowing as it was before. 59 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 1: We've done something disastrous here. And you know, you mentioned 60 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 1: a lot of countries. Every single country and play every 61 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 1: single state in the United States has had a different 62 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 1: strategy for dealing with this. And we look at countries 63 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: like Sweden or the Czech Republic or Taiwan, three different countries, 64 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 1: three different strategies. None of them did a lockdown. All 65 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 1: of them had their economy returning full force and didn't need, 66 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 1: you know, the full stimulus that we needed. And I 67 00:03:57,800 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 1: think it's a shame that we did this economic lockdown. 68 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 1: There's absolutely no data to support it. Sure, by the way, 69 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 1: and this is this is sort of sacrilegious to say, 70 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 1: I'm not even so sure there's data to support social distancing. 71 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 1: Like you mentioned Sweden, Maybe it's just that they naturally 72 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 1: social distance because they don't really like each other that much. 73 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: But they didn't social distance, and they're they're coming back fun. 74 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 1: It's not it's not like they were great, and it's 75 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 1: not like they were bad. They weren't the worst in Europe, 76 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,159 Speaker 1: but they weren't the best. But I think this, I 77 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 1: think this pandemic kind of has its natural course. I mean, 78 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:34,479 Speaker 1: you probably remember, like an early February, some of the 79 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 1: initial mathematical models. We're even saying up to one hundred 80 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:43,159 Speaker 1: forty million deaths worldwide, which was insane, Like, you know, 81 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:46,720 Speaker 1: this is Synaporean total head. I don't know, less than 82 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: a thousand m. You have to say this again, it's 83 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:54,360 Speaker 1: like religion. Every death is horrible. We have to acknowledge that. 84 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 1: But you know, people die every day from all sorts 85 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 1: of causes. So just setting that as side for a second, 86 00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:05,599 Speaker 1: it does up here that even the early data from 87 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 1: all the initial countries that we were in that the 88 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: virus was in, the early data was suggesting this virus 89 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:14,839 Speaker 1: doubles exponentially three or four times and then starts to 90 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,679 Speaker 1: peak and flatten. There was no way it was gonna 91 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:22,240 Speaker 1: have a two percent fatality rate world one. And now 92 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:27,040 Speaker 1: all these recent tests Santa Clara, California, Chelsea in Massachusetts, 93 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:32,119 Speaker 1: other tests are showing that they can take the infectiousness 94 00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 1: of this is probably fifty to eighty five times worse 95 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 1: than we thought, or greater than we thought, which means 96 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:41,599 Speaker 1: that the ultimate fatality rate is much lower. The higher 97 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 1: the infection rate, the lower the fatality rate. Will probably 98 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:47,280 Speaker 1: look at at zero point one to zero point three 99 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:50,280 Speaker 1: percent fatality rate in order. In other words, you know, 100 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:52,920 Speaker 1: a flute similar to a flue season of course that 101 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:55,480 Speaker 1: you're not allowed to say. Also, this is similar the flue, 102 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: it's not similar to the blue. The flue effects children 103 00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:04,159 Speaker 1: and kills children. This is affecting elderly's, two different demographic groups. 104 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 1: So what that means is on the hospitals is that 105 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:08,760 Speaker 1: if you end up on a ventilator from this, if 106 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: you're elderly, you end up spending more days on the ventilator. Hence, 107 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:14,280 Speaker 1: if we were going to if the hospitals were going 108 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 1: to be overwhelmed, it could have caused a problem. But 109 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 1: obviously they weren't overlap whelmed, and so that didn't happen. 110 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 1: And now they're saying, well, it's because we enacted social 111 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: distancing prince wholes who we don't really know, and some 112 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 1: states that didn't really do anything have barely any cases 113 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:36,719 Speaker 1: or deaths. So you know, to treat every state as if, 114 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 1: oh my gosh, you're not even allowed to go to 115 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 1: the grocery store, you know, or else you're going to die. 116 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 1: That's just ridiculous. And now now the question is we're 117 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 1: not coming back to a new normal. We're coming back 118 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 1: to a new abnormal. This has never happened before. And 119 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 1: the stimulus has been trillions of dollars more than we 120 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 1: even did in the massive stimulus in two thousand and 121 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 1: eight two. So what do you foresee that doing, James, 122 00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 1: what do you see that doing to the economy? I mean, 123 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:08,919 Speaker 1: we're now seeing hundreds of billions of dollars thrown into 124 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 1: congressional spending bills. We can't even keep up with it. 125 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 1: I mean, it was it was a couple, it was 126 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 1: a few trillion dollars, and now they've added it was 127 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 1: going to be two hundred and fifty billion, and then 128 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: it was three hundred billion, and now it's close to 129 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: half a trillion. You know, four hundred something billion was 130 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 1: the final tally. And Chuck Schumer's already saying there's going 131 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 1: to be apart apart three or apart four to this 132 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 1: whole thing. At what point have we how do we 133 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 1: know as a government, as a country, we spent too 134 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 1: much money? What does that feel like? What does that 135 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 1: look like? Yeah, that's a great question, because because there's 136 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: going to be of a point. It's not like in 137 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: two thousand and two thousand and nine, where there wasn't 138 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: a sudden before and after, like it wasn't like the 139 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 1: economy was bad in two thousand and eight and then 140 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 1: as soon as the stimulus was passed and it was good. 141 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: It was it was the economy never was closed then, 142 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 1: so economy went from bad having some stimulus to them 143 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 1: becoming good. But right now we're all being forced literally 144 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:10,800 Speaker 1: at gunpoint, like they'll arrest you if you don't I 145 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 1: if you you go outside without a mask, or don't 146 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 1: obey proper social distancing. So sooner or later they're going 147 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 1: to reopen the economy all across the US, and then 148 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:25,679 Speaker 1: at the same time, the stimulus is going to be hitting. 149 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: We've never had an experience like that where everybody sort 150 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 1: of walks out of their home and sees daylight and 151 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:35,560 Speaker 1: money is just showering down from the sky. And of 152 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:38,840 Speaker 1: course there's a risk of hyperinflation. But right now we're 153 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:41,920 Speaker 1: in a deflationary period because there's zero demand. So the 154 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 1: price of pretty much everything now is between twenty to 155 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 1: one hundred percent below what it was, So we're in 156 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 1: a massive deflationary scenario that's been forced on us. But 157 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 1: it's going to change as soon as we leave and 158 00:08:56,520 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 1: as soon as e commomy reopens, we don't really know 159 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,559 Speaker 1: what prices are going to look like now. To your point, 160 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 1: on a macroeconomic level, the fortunate thing we have, it's 161 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 1: both fortunate and unfortunate. But there's such huge demand for 162 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,200 Speaker 1: the US dollar. The US dollar is the flight to 163 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 1: safety for the wealthy in China, the wealthy in the 164 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 1: Middle East, the wealthy in Europe. That that keeps naturally 165 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: our interest rates low, and it keeps people buying other 166 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 1: countries buying our debt, so that sort of avoids too 167 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:28,439 Speaker 1: much inflationary pressure. But an economy is only as good 168 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 1: as the goods and services it produces. People pay for 169 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 1: those goods and services and dollars, and that's why the 170 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:38,080 Speaker 1: dollar is valuable, because it advised US goods and services. 171 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 1: But ultimately, if you're just going a trillion dollars a 172 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 1: month out there and you're not producing any goods and services, 173 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 1: sooner or later, everyone's gonna look around and say, well, 174 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: why why are we giving so many of much of 175 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:54,360 Speaker 1: our currency to the dollar. The dollars sort of worthless. Now, 176 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 1: what will avoid that? The story of the economy reopens. 177 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 1: The better every month we wait, the economy comes closer 178 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 1: and closer to the twilight zone where we don't really 179 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 1: understand what's going to happen next. If the economy would 180 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:15,679 Speaker 1: open this morning, we can probably start to guess what 181 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 1: industries are going to fail, what industries are going to succeed, 182 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:22,199 Speaker 1: and we'll come back to some sort of normal. The 183 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 1: short term stimulus will kick in. That's the direct to 184 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 1: your bank account, twelve hundred dollars checks that are going 185 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 1: to everybody, and the loans that are going to small businesses. 186 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 1: That's the short term stimulus. The long term stimulus is 187 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:38,360 Speaker 1: the FED rate cuts and that I'll kick in. Let's 188 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 1: stay within twelve months. So we have short and long 189 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,320 Speaker 1: term stimulus that will be up the economy. And the 190 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:48,960 Speaker 1: hope is that we didn't miscalculate and rely on the 191 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:52,200 Speaker 1: kindness of others too much to support our dollar, and 192 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 1: you know, hopefully the economy comes back intact. James and 193 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:58,720 Speaker 1: I'll tutor. He is a hedge fund manager, author, podcaster, 194 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:03,719 Speaker 1: book and his book Choose Yourself and many books, many podcasts, 195 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:07,280 Speaker 1: many things. Mister mister al Tucher jack Jack of all trades, 196 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:11,959 Speaker 1: the James of all trades, Yes, Diloton of everything, Master 197 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 1: of Nothing, Yeah, well, we have the same first name technically, 198 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:16,840 Speaker 1: so that that speaks well to you. So let me 199 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: let me ask about what you had a threat. I 200 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:21,719 Speaker 1: found really interesting and I think some of these some 201 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 1: of this audience is really going to agree with it, 202 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: and they're gonna probably going to disagree with someone. But 203 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: that's great. We like we like to spark ideas here 204 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 1: and the spark debate myths that we have learned as 205 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:35,080 Speaker 1: a function of this lockdown, myths about ourselves and about society. 206 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:36,960 Speaker 1: I just will what are some of the myths, you know, 207 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:39,679 Speaker 1: the top ones? I know, I get a whole bunch. Well, 208 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:41,719 Speaker 1: I think that I think there was this myth that 209 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 1: we have to be in a location to work or 210 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 1: to learn. Like look, you know, it's clear now the 211 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:55,319 Speaker 1: tide has come in and the first institution postbo of 212 00:11:55,320 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: institutions standing naked are institutions of higher learning. Colleges. Colleges 213 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 1: were charging seventy thousand a year, and suddenly they said, oh, 214 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:07,680 Speaker 1: by the way, we were, you could just go home 215 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 1: and learn by yourselves, but we're keeping the money. Don't 216 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 1: worry about it. You'll get your degree, but just go 217 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 1: home and play with your little friends, bother your parents, 218 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:20,000 Speaker 1: get your grandparents sick. You get out of the dorm rooms, 219 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 1: by the way, because we don't want your petrit dish 220 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 1: of disease and affecting our dorm rooms. But don't ask 221 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 1: for your rent back because that money is ours now 222 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 1: business one on one. We took that money from you, 223 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 1: and possession is nine tenths of the law. So I 224 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: don't know, Like everybody's leaving college and the supposing course online. 225 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:42,559 Speaker 1: I've seen some of these online courses. I would rather 226 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 1: take a course for ten dollars on or SARAH or 227 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 1: LinkedIn Learning orcan Academy. Like why did anybody pay seventy 228 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 1: thousand a year for four years to learn to get 229 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 1: a degree that says oh, I learned East Asian studies, 230 00:12:57,160 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 1: Like it's particulars Well, well, they're credential they're really credentially 231 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:02,679 Speaker 1: their credentialing programs, which is especially I think that's been 232 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:04,680 Speaker 1: better known for a long time about some of the 233 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: more flimsy master's programs in the humanities. But now people 234 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 1: are realizing, well, it's like an arms race, right if 235 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 1: everybody has a four year liberal arts degree of some kind, 236 00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:16,800 Speaker 1: the value in the marketplace of just having that degree 237 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:20,080 Speaker 1: is not the same as it used to be. No. 238 00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 1: I mean in this already you're seeing, you know, skills 239 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 1: and ideas are the currency of the twenty first century, 240 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 1: not a degree from whatever you know school. And I'm 241 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 1: gonna be talking right up to Harvard. Like Harvard, there's 242 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 1: always a credentialing where there's some status things. So other 243 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 1: people who say that they'll higher status, well we'll hire you. 244 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 1: Oh Harvard, they just took they have a four one 245 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:47,280 Speaker 1: billion dollars down and you know, until they were kind 246 00:13:47,280 --> 00:13:50,199 Speaker 1: of caught right handed, they took nine million dollars from 247 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:53,640 Speaker 1: the last stimulus package, supposedly to give it to students 248 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: leading financial Yeah, Trump says they're going to give it back. 249 00:13:56,840 --> 00:13:59,839 Speaker 1: By the way, he said that last earlier the week 250 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 1: what ahead of the Harvard endowment makes per year he 251 00:14:03,520 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: makes guess what, nine million dollars. Oh, it's a payment 252 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:12,440 Speaker 1: protection program. Let's protect the pay of one employee, the 253 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 1: guy who runs all of our money. So it's just 254 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:18,240 Speaker 1: you know, that's that's a big emitt. But then there's 255 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 1: the myth that you have you can't work remotely and 256 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 1: the conductive you know, right now, I think anything with 257 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 1: the word of remote in it is going to be supercharged, 258 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 1: and there's both upside and downside to that. We're going 259 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 1: to be able to be more flexible about our work hours, 260 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 1: more flexible about where we work, more flexible about travel. 261 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 1: But at the same time you have to ask, what's 262 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 1: going to happen to commercial real estate? And by the way, 263 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 1: not that we have to care that much, but everything 264 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 1: in the economy is linked. So we Work clearly is 265 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:50,280 Speaker 1: going to go out of business after this, Like there 266 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:53,280 Speaker 1: they are bankrupt and soft Bank hold the plot on funding. 267 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 1: So we Were is the biggest lease I don't know 268 00:14:57,680 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 1: what you call it. They rent the most wars in 269 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 1: the city of any other company. So if you own 270 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:07,280 Speaker 1: a skyscraper in New York City and you're heavily leveraged, 271 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 1: then you have to make your own mortgage payments. And 272 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 1: we Work suddenly disappears, and they rented eight floors in 273 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 1: your building. You might be out of business. You can't 274 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 1: just replace them the next day with a renter. So 275 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 1: and that's we Were. And then there's all the restaurants 276 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:24,800 Speaker 1: store funds. Not every restaurant is coming back to the 277 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 1: business in urban areas and maybe all over the country, 278 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 1: so this, you know, ten million restaurants on average day 279 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 1: at sixteen days of cash in the bank. Restaurants are 280 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 1: out of business in this country right now. And so now, 281 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 1: yes they'll be helped by the stimulus package. But guess what. 282 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 1: The stimulus package at least initially went to the Shape 283 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 1: Shacks and Ruth Chris steakhouses of the world, and this 284 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 1: mom and pop small restaurants are out of business. I 285 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 1: know because all the goal fund I own a local 286 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 1: store park business in New York City. All I see 287 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:57,880 Speaker 1: all the local goal fund these being you know, from 288 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 1: the employees of all the different restaurants in this restaurants 289 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 1: buck that you and I have even been to, and 290 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 1: there are a lot of business So what are going 291 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 1: to happen to those buildings? We're no longer getting the 292 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:10,360 Speaker 1: fifteen to twenty thousand dollars and rent a month that 293 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 1: those rest words we're getting. So commercial real estate is 294 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 1: gonna collapse and we're gonna have like a mini financial 295 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 1: collapse after we reopened the economy just on the basis 296 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: of that. So you know, I think I think a 297 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 1: lot of things are going to be both good and 298 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 1: that you know, will reopen the economy. People will have 299 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 1: an opportunity to really decide what they want to do. 300 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 1: They've probably changed habits so they didn't spend as much 301 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 1: and they go out as much. Hopefully they'll start spending 302 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:37,480 Speaker 1: and going out again, but some people won't and that 303 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 1: might be a good thing for them. But the other 304 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 1: thing is, you know, it's gonna be quickly everything that 305 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 1: was going to eventually happen, like they denies. Yeah, they've accelerated. 306 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:49,400 Speaker 1: They've accelerated to clean the cleaning out of a lot 307 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 1: of the economy in ways. That's gonna be very tough. Okay, James. 308 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 1: So we were talking about some of the myths some 309 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 1: of the changes in society. I want to ask you 310 00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 1: a broad question, then we can drill down into some 311 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: more specifics here there. It seems to me that there 312 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:05,280 Speaker 1: can be an overall reaction to what we're seeing at 313 00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 1: the national level of either, Wow, the government is really 314 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:13,480 Speaker 1: actually quite incompetent pretty much across the board. Yes, the 315 00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 1: government can spend a whole lot of money, but that 316 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,359 Speaker 1: comes with its own that comes with its own costs, 317 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 1: quite clearly. But beyond that, the government is not some 318 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 1: all seeing, all knowing protector or that keeps you safe 319 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:27,440 Speaker 1: and warm at night. So there's some people that might 320 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:31,680 Speaker 1: have a more individualistic anti government perspective, and then others 321 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 1: are going to say, oh, look at this when things 322 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:36,160 Speaker 1: get really tough. Now everybody all of a sudden needs 323 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,960 Speaker 1: the big government to swoop in and save them, And oh, 324 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:41,400 Speaker 1: why can't we have a UBI, you know, a universal 325 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 1: basic income If the government can just write checks, why 326 00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 1: can't we give everybody a twenty five dollar minimum wage 327 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 1: that the government can just write checks. How do you 328 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:54,160 Speaker 1: see that balance playing out? Yeah, it's such an interesting 329 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:59,480 Speaker 1: topic because somehow other of this virus became so incredibly partisan. 330 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:03,440 Speaker 1: Before Trump even mentioned it, a lot of people were 331 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 1: talking about the anti malarial drug hydrops, the flori fran 332 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:10,439 Speaker 1: like Elon Muskin mentioned it. You know, the CDC was 333 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:12,880 Speaker 1: looking into it as early as two thousand and five, 334 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:16,000 Speaker 1: that hydruxx a floriquin might have an effect on stars. 335 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:19,200 Speaker 1: And of course in Africa, where it's a powerful anti 336 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:21,320 Speaker 1: malarial drug, people were saying it out, so I has 337 00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:24,120 Speaker 1: some anti viral properties, and this is drugs put around 338 00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:28,640 Speaker 1: since the nineteen forties. That day approved. It's with medical supervision. 339 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 1: It's always been safe. And as soon as Trump mentioned it, 340 00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:35,639 Speaker 1: and by the way, I'm not saying people should take 341 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:37,640 Speaker 1: this drug or not. I'm just noticing that as soon 342 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:42,199 Speaker 1: as Trump mentioned it, everybody who was anti Trump was 343 00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 1: saying hydruxs apork, who will kill you? And everybody was 344 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 1: pro trup was saying, we found the cure. So it's 345 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 1: really disturbing to me that that's such an important issue 346 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:56,199 Speaker 1: that's not affecting billions of people. And I'm not just 347 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,400 Speaker 1: telling you about the virus, but also the economic shutdown, 348 00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 1: because that you know, every percent loss in GDP costs lives, 349 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 1: and that has to be backd into these decisions. Everything 350 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 1: has become so partisan. If Trump wanted to keep the 351 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 1: economy closed, I think the opposite side, keep it open 352 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:14,480 Speaker 1: it up. We've got to open it up. If Trump 353 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:17,199 Speaker 1: wanted to Trump put on the Shila band, they were 354 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 1: going to make a band of bands. And by the way, 355 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,959 Speaker 1: I'm not saying everything Trump did was great and everything 356 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:25,840 Speaker 1: the Democrats it was bad and vice versa. I just 357 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,680 Speaker 1: wish it hadn't gotten partisan, because I think what happened 358 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 1: was is that we had all of these fogus mathematical 359 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 1: models made by healthcare officials, who, by the way, didn't 360 00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:37,679 Speaker 1: really seem to understand math very well. And then the 361 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 1: models were crap, right way? Can I just the models 362 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 1: were crap where there's no there's no doubt now, I 363 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 1: mean if you look back at them, and yeah, we're 364 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:46,119 Speaker 1: supposed to skip past that. These models were used as 365 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,920 Speaker 1: the primary data point to justify the lockdowns. Why why 366 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 1: is it irrelevant if the models were garbage Because they 367 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 1: were garbage. They were garbage and models models are not 368 00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:01,440 Speaker 1: always supposed to be correct their model. They're not scientific law. 369 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 1: And you know, it's like saying, in two thousand and six, well, 370 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 1: my mathematical models said, you know, mortgages, there'll never be 371 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 1: more than one percent of mortgage just to faulting. That's 372 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:13,919 Speaker 1: what the model said in two thousand and six, and 373 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 1: that's what led to the housing crash in two thousand 374 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:20,639 Speaker 1: and eight. So you know, models aren't supposed to be correct. 375 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 1: But there were just basic mathematical sixth grade principles that 376 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:27,879 Speaker 1: were not followed in many of these models. Like they 377 00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:31,640 Speaker 1: kept saying, this virus is exponential, and it was, but 378 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 1: exponential when you have a limited population doesn't mean exponential forever. 379 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 1: It means you have to model how many times it 380 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:43,280 Speaker 1: doubles before it starts to flatten. That's called exponential with 381 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:46,360 Speaker 1: a sigmoidal curve. I have a math background, and that's 382 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:50,400 Speaker 1: what happens in an exponentially going situation. Where they bounded population, 383 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:53,639 Speaker 1: we were bounded by the number of people in the population. 384 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 1: Where bounded by the demographics of the virus. It turns 385 00:20:56,000 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 1: out mostly effects severely the elderly. We were bounded by demographics, 386 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 1: by temperatures. Who all we know, we're abounded by pre 387 00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:10,639 Speaker 1: existing conditions. We were abounded by herd immunity. So we 388 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:13,680 Speaker 1: don't know all the boundaries, but it certainly was not exponential. 389 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 1: So every model one hundred percent of the model of 390 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 1: the run. Even on March twenty fifth, the bodel that 391 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:23,680 Speaker 1: the White House is still currently using was predicting sixty 392 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 1: thousand hospitalizations in New York City by able for US 393 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,639 Speaker 1: six days later. Six days later, there were only twelve 394 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 1: thousand hospitalizations. How can they be eighty percent wrong in 395 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 1: six days? What kind of map are they using. They're 396 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:40,680 Speaker 1: using like a calculating event. But Devin, to your point 397 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 1: about the we're using an advocas, Yeah, I mean to 398 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,000 Speaker 1: the point about the partisanship too. It was as soon 399 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:48,640 Speaker 1: as this came up, and I've seen that particular loss there. 400 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,159 Speaker 1: There are many of the Hime models when you look 401 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:53,560 Speaker 1: at them and they're wrong, not just a little bit 402 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,640 Speaker 1: in advance, they're wrong day of and continue to be wrong, 403 00:21:56,680 --> 00:22:01,199 Speaker 1: and people will dismiss this who addictively. You know, somehow 404 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 1: the models that justified the lockdown fell into the anti 405 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:09,200 Speaker 1: Trump camp, and so people that don't like the president 406 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,280 Speaker 1: when you point out these models are wrong, jump all 407 00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 1: over you and say that Grandma wants to die. Meanwhile, 408 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 1: the models are wrong, right, So I mean you can't 409 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:19,679 Speaker 1: claim to be somebody who cares about facts and numbers 410 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,399 Speaker 1: and logic and then when this happens, just dismiss it 411 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 1: because you don't like it, right, Like like if I'll 412 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:29,560 Speaker 1: post something and this is this is a third round, 413 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:31,879 Speaker 1: if I post something like, oh, the economy needs to 414 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:35,480 Speaker 1: reopen because whether or not even believe in the models, 415 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:38,680 Speaker 1: it's clear we quote Ublete flattened the curve, like the 416 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 1: whole purpose of platten the curbo so the hospitals wouldn't 417 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 1: be overwhelmed. We don't the hospitals are empty, right, So 418 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,719 Speaker 1: in forty eight states. Hospitals are completely empty. In New 419 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,879 Speaker 1: York City, they're clearly not overwhelmed that we never used 420 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 1: the Jaget Center or the US as comfort or the tents. 421 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 1: And I visited the tents in Central Park they were 422 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:01,240 Speaker 1: empty and so so. But if you mentioned all the 423 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,440 Speaker 1: economies will reopen, people will say, oh, you believe in 424 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:08,320 Speaker 1: the stock market over your grandma's death, And I'm like, no, 425 00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:13,399 Speaker 1: the economy pays or healthcare, you don't. You don't have 426 00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:17,199 Speaker 1: doctors and ventilators without an economy that they're intertwined. You 427 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 1: can't shut down an economy. What you've done is you've 428 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:24,200 Speaker 1: killed the economy. And maybe I'm not even going to 429 00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: call it the simulus package. The band aid package that 430 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,920 Speaker 1: has been put together is keeping the patient alive on 431 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 1: life support, which is the economy. But we don't know 432 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 1: if it's going to stimulate because we have to see 433 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,479 Speaker 1: if this patient can even get off the life support. Now, 434 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,760 Speaker 1: the economy has been has been really hurt and damaged. 435 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 1: And you know, again, if you say, oh, maybe we 436 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,760 Speaker 1: should reopen, and people start yelling at me. One person 437 00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,199 Speaker 1: who I really respect, a really smart guy, called me 438 00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:54,640 Speaker 1: and said, you know, I've been calling this since the beginning. 439 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 1: I'm a kind of an expert. And I'm like, no, 440 00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:59,640 Speaker 1: you're not. You're a TV show producer, you're not an expert. 441 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,359 Speaker 1: He's like, we'll live about all the people who are 442 00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:04,399 Speaker 1: going to die, And I'm like, well, what about the 443 00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:08,120 Speaker 1: people we know? We know it's a fact. When there's 444 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:12,119 Speaker 1: when the economy suffers, there's more suicides, there's more domestic violence, 445 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,080 Speaker 1: there's more child abuse, there's more deaths from stress and 446 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,960 Speaker 1: mental health. Not to forget, not to forget. Also, there's 447 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:22,440 Speaker 1: collateral fatalities when you shut down the hospitals to elective procedures. Well, 448 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,200 Speaker 1: guess what's elective? If you have stage three liver cancer 449 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:26,480 Speaker 1: and you need to get a test to find that 450 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:28,680 Speaker 1: if you've gone from stage three to stage four, which 451 00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:32,240 Speaker 1: you're now terminal, that was elective. You couldn't get that test. 452 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,720 Speaker 1: You still can't get that test in forty nine to 453 00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 1: the fifty States. So you can't tell me this doesn't 454 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,600 Speaker 1: have collateral fatalities that are much much bigger than what 455 00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:44,080 Speaker 1: we've now seen as the coronavirus fatalities. What do you 456 00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,399 Speaker 1: think should be done? Like, explain to me if I 457 00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 1: made you, And it feels like everyone these days, at 458 00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:52,480 Speaker 1: least on Twitter, thinks that they are the coronaviruses are right. 459 00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 1: Like everyone's got all the answers all the time, and 460 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 1: if you point out that they were wrong yesterday, they 461 00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:58,760 Speaker 1: just again the yell that you know, you just want 462 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,199 Speaker 1: grandma to die. This has become this is the bushlide 463 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:05,280 Speaker 1: babies died of the coronavirus epidemic. And I would just 464 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:08,439 Speaker 1: want to know what you think, and I'm asking you right, 465 00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:10,520 Speaker 1: I want to know what do you think should be 466 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,680 Speaker 1: done now in order to get things back up and running. 467 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,880 Speaker 1: What does that look like? And how do we as 468 00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:20,199 Speaker 1: a society on an individual level, what should we be 469 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,600 Speaker 1: prepared for to be different and maybe not different, like 470 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:24,919 Speaker 1: where should we just recognize that there are risks in 471 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 1: life and we got to be willing to take them, right, 472 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,679 Speaker 1: So two little questions. So it was up to me, 473 00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 1: and of course it isn't but I have written to 474 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,720 Speaker 1: as many people as I know in the current administration 475 00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,359 Speaker 1: that I could. But it was up to me. And 476 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 1: this is not being insensitive about coronavirus. I might add, 477 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:47,320 Speaker 1: but the coronavirus has already peaked and at least forty 478 00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:49,800 Speaker 1: eight or forty nine of the fifty states. It's also 479 00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:54,199 Speaker 1: peaked in New York City. I would reopen the economy immediately. 480 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,639 Speaker 1: I would. I would, you know, like, and now we 481 00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,440 Speaker 1: have the examples of other countries that have successfully reopened 482 00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:03,959 Speaker 1: or it seems like successor reopened. I probably keep masks 483 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,119 Speaker 1: like many of the Asian countries do not for a 484 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,680 Speaker 1: one hundred percent of the time. But if you're in crowds, 485 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,879 Speaker 1: I would quarantine obviously anybody who has symptoms. But you 486 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,080 Speaker 1: know you're gonna find out after this is all said 487 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 1: and done, that one hundred million people got infected and 488 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,120 Speaker 1: most of them are asymptomatic. And by the way, most 489 00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:24,400 Speaker 1: of them did not spread the virus. Everyone says asymptomatic 490 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,840 Speaker 1: people spread the virus. That is true only if you're 491 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:32,080 Speaker 1: like spending six hours a day with asymptomatic people who 492 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:35,359 Speaker 1: are rubbing themselves all over here. So unless you're like 493 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:38,000 Speaker 1: hanging out in a horrid house, that's not enough social distancing. 494 00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,080 Speaker 1: By the way, not enough social distancing. You can't have 495 00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:41,920 Speaker 1: people rub themselves all over you. That's a no no. 496 00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 1: Doctor Burkes told me, right, you gotta spend them you 497 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:50,160 Speaker 1: gotta stay at least six inches apart from someone who's asymptomatic, 498 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:54,640 Speaker 1: and the realities we don't even know about social distancing. 499 00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:57,280 Speaker 1: So but keep keeping masks because if you have symptoms 500 00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,840 Speaker 1: and you're coughing someone, they're gonna get it. But here's 501 00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 1: the is the only thing we know about spreading this disease. 502 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,800 Speaker 1: If you're around someone with severe symptoms, and you're around 503 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:08,119 Speaker 1: them quite a bit, you're probably going to get it, 504 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,960 Speaker 1: and you might get severe symptoms as well, which is why, sadly, 505 00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,600 Speaker 1: the healthcare workers who are treating the patients with severe 506 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:18,040 Speaker 1: symptoms are also now getting cool. This is like like 507 00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:20,080 Speaker 1: an epidemiologist friend of mine, because I do have some 508 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,879 Speaker 1: an infectious disease specialists. Actually, I mean he's the same idea, 509 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,159 Speaker 1: the same thing. I mean, he told me that we 510 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:28,960 Speaker 1: always forget about two things when we're talking about transmissibility 511 00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:33,640 Speaker 1: and all that. There is duration of exposure and degree 512 00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:36,120 Speaker 1: of exposure. How so this is what you're saying, how 513 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:37,880 Speaker 1: long are you in the room with somebody and are 514 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:39,919 Speaker 1: they like pretty healthy but have like a little bit 515 00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 1: of COVID that's coming out a little bit and some 516 00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:43,960 Speaker 1: of you know, if they call for something or are 517 00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:46,960 Speaker 1: they just like you know, a COVID machine spewing it 518 00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,480 Speaker 1: out right into your face because you're a doctor or 519 00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 1: a nurse trying to attend to them. That doesn't just 520 00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,240 Speaker 1: affect the chances of you getting the virus. According the 521 00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:56,600 Speaker 1: stock I talk to you, it can affect the severity 522 00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:59,200 Speaker 1: of the virus you get, which makes sense well, well, 523 00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:03,240 Speaker 1: and book, it's not just anecdotal. And this is why 524 00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:06,080 Speaker 1: where the media deserves me. When you see all the 525 00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:10,040 Speaker 1: headlines in all the different major media outlets about you know, 526 00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:13,720 Speaker 1: Imperial College says there might be two point two million 527 00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:16,680 Speaker 1: deaths now in the UK blah blah blah. Well, at 528 00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:20,360 Speaker 1: Aurial College also there was a study done and research 529 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:22,840 Speaker 1: release like maybe it was two weekends ago, three weekends ago, 530 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:25,960 Speaker 1: where they did all this testing at least on mice, 531 00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:29,760 Speaker 1: where they basically showed exactly what your friends said. They 532 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:33,639 Speaker 1: did every configuration of let's give this mouse severe symptoms 533 00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 1: and put them right next to this other mouse. Okay, 534 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:39,080 Speaker 1: now it's too asymptomatic, put it next to this asymptotic, 535 00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 1: put it next to an older US, and it's exactly 536 00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:44,479 Speaker 1: do you expect. The worst case scenario is someone who 537 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:47,080 Speaker 1: has a lot of symptoms is basically coughing on you 538 00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:50,520 Speaker 1: for six hours and you have pre existing conditions. That's 539 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:52,680 Speaker 1: the worst case scenario. And all the way in the 540 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,960 Speaker 1: spectrum too. You know, an asymptomatic person passes you in 541 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,160 Speaker 1: the street, you're not going to get it. Oh but 542 00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:01,640 Speaker 1: it stays in the air for twenty seven So what 543 00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 1: just because I've breathing a nanoparticle of coronavirus doesn't mean 544 00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,800 Speaker 1: on that. So well, you know, you got people in 545 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:12,920 Speaker 1: the city who are now jogging. They're jogging with masks on. 546 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:15,000 Speaker 1: I mean I saw this and I was just thinking, 547 00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:16,880 Speaker 1: this is the first of all, I feel like someone's 548 00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:19,720 Speaker 1: gonna get some form of like, you know, self CEO 549 00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:22,560 Speaker 1: two poison at yourself. This is crazy to you're jogging 550 00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:24,320 Speaker 1: with a mask on. I mean, the first of all, 551 00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,200 Speaker 1: there's no I don't even like walking with a mask on? 552 00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:29,200 Speaker 1: Right where people are going to die from jogging in 553 00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:31,600 Speaker 1: New York City and then die from coronavirus like and 554 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,000 Speaker 1: again I'm not I don't mean to make light of it. 555 00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:36,520 Speaker 1: It's as serious. It's as serious as if I was 556 00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:38,880 Speaker 1: talking about you know, two million people a year die 557 00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:42,880 Speaker 1: from diarrhea that's serious too. And and and someone said 558 00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,600 Speaker 1: to me, oh, but diarrhea is not infectious. Are you 559 00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:47,560 Speaker 1: kidding me? Do you want to stand next to someone 560 00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:49,440 Speaker 1: with diarrhea? Let's see if you get it as well. 561 00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 1: I don't mean to be gross, but uh so, I 562 00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,920 Speaker 1: don't reopen things instantly. And by the way, if you're elderly, 563 00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 1: you could stay in or not. Here's your chances of 564 00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:00,840 Speaker 1: dying if you're elderly. Two and one hundred thousand in 565 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:04,280 Speaker 1: the US. So again, life with flue. And I'm not 566 00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:06,480 Speaker 1: saying this is life the blue. It's a bird rail. 567 00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:10,000 Speaker 1: But there's seventy five hundred deaths a day in the 568 00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:13,959 Speaker 1: United States, if anything. You know, we actually don't know 569 00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,320 Speaker 1: how many deaths have been happening now because so many 570 00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:18,040 Speaker 1: people have not been allowed to go to the doctor 571 00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:21,480 Speaker 1: or a hospital. But in all the numbers like suicides 572 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,840 Speaker 1: are under reported and so on. But you look at 573 00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:27,000 Speaker 1: like mental health hotlines. In Indiana, they have a hotline 574 00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:29,320 Speaker 1: two one one. They used to get a thousand calls 575 00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,960 Speaker 1: a day. Now they're getting twenty five thousand calls a day, 576 00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:36,040 Speaker 1: and it's mostly suicide related. The Bronx in New York 577 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:40,520 Speaker 1: City they've gone up sixfold the number of calls they're 578 00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:46,200 Speaker 1: getting about reporting childhooduse situations. So there are horrible ramifications 579 00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,360 Speaker 1: of what's been going on. So to stop those ramifications, 580 00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:53,280 Speaker 1: to stop it's extra six x childhoods, To stop the suicides, 581 00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:55,920 Speaker 1: to stop collateral fatalities from people who can't go to 582 00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:59,200 Speaker 1: the hospital, you have to reopen the economy and get 583 00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,800 Speaker 1: people's stress levels back to normal, their mental health back 584 00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:06,200 Speaker 1: to normal. Coronavirus has already peaked anyway in the United States, 585 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,160 Speaker 1: and so now you ask, what's going to be the 586 00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,440 Speaker 1: new abnormal or the new normal, whatever you want to 587 00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:13,680 Speaker 1: call it. I think people. I think people at first 588 00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,120 Speaker 1: will be reluctant to go out to a restaurant. I 589 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,880 Speaker 1: don't think anybody's starting a restaurant in New York City 590 00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:20,960 Speaker 1: anytime soon. I do think there's going to be a 591 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:24,560 Speaker 1: lot of office closures, restaurant closures, store closures, and so on, 592 00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,680 Speaker 1: just because they did not get their small business loans. 593 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 1: They went out of business. They can't afford their rent. 594 00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,120 Speaker 1: And again, the average restaurant in the US is only 595 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 1: sixteen days of cash, which means they're already bankrupt. Many 596 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:40,080 Speaker 1: of them are not getting small business loans. Because there's 597 00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,520 Speaker 1: ten million restaurants, they only are going to give out 598 00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,400 Speaker 1: loans to two or three million small businesses. So you're 599 00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,760 Speaker 1: out of luck if you don't get one. Not everyone 600 00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:49,600 Speaker 1: is getting one. They act like everyone's getting one. Not 601 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:53,880 Speaker 1: everyone's getting one. So again I think at first is 602 00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,720 Speaker 1: going to be a weird new normal. But then I'm hoping, 603 00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:58,719 Speaker 1: and again this is where I don't know it comes in. 604 00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:01,480 Speaker 1: There's a lot of uncertainty. What I'm holding for is 605 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,720 Speaker 1: that we're like drug addicts coming out of rehab. So 606 00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:08,200 Speaker 1: when we first go to rehab, we're still addicted to 607 00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,240 Speaker 1: our drugs, and then by the end of rehab we say, oh, 608 00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:14,600 Speaker 1: I'm never using drugs again. And then after a month 609 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,200 Speaker 1: or two, going back to your friends and going back 610 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,000 Speaker 1: to the same location, you start becoming a drug addict again. 611 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,200 Speaker 1: And so I'm hoping that the stimulus, combined with that 612 00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:28,120 Speaker 1: sort of rule of human behavior, we'll kick in and 613 00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,600 Speaker 1: we'll start going the restaurants will start having normal behavior again, 614 00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,920 Speaker 1: and the stimulus will kick in. Money will be flowing. 615 00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:38,760 Speaker 1: You know, in terms of the money printing, the economy 616 00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 1: will probably spend about three trillion dollars less this quarter. 617 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,720 Speaker 1: So the stimulus a better or force is just is 618 00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:51,360 Speaker 1: just replacing that three trillion dollars. And unfortunately, again, countries 619 00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:53,480 Speaker 1: around the world are willing to help us by still 620 00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:57,120 Speaker 1: lending to us and purchasing our T bills and so on. 621 00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,360 Speaker 1: Everybody loves the US dollar fortunately, so that'll keep inflation 622 00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:03,480 Speaker 1: pressure down. And the fact that we're just simply replacing 623 00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,400 Speaker 1: dollars that would have been spent will keep inflation down 624 00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,920 Speaker 1: ubi you know, in the future. I mean, I do agree. 625 00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:13,920 Speaker 1: We probably needed it for these months just because nobody 626 00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,480 Speaker 1: wanted to be out of work. So yeah, the government 627 00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,720 Speaker 1: should pay us to stay home. And fortunately, again we 628 00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:22,000 Speaker 1: had the kind of economy that can afford that. But 629 00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:25,840 Speaker 1: long term, I don't know how you can justify affording 630 00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:29,360 Speaker 1: that unless you know. I also sort of think we 631 00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:33,480 Speaker 1: should start thinking about selling off US property, like why 632 00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,440 Speaker 1: do we own all the highways? Why do the states 633 00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:40,160 Speaker 1: and the federal government own the federal highways the state highways? 634 00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:44,200 Speaker 1: And still on, the states should start selling their public 635 00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:47,240 Speaker 1: colleges before it's too late. Like imagine if New York 636 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:50,360 Speaker 1: sold the whole stunning system to somebody, they could probably 637 00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:53,200 Speaker 1: get a decent price for it, but in ten years 638 00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,920 Speaker 1: that that stunning system might be out of business. So 639 00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:58,479 Speaker 1: I think I think that's another way the US government 640 00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:02,920 Speaker 1: can kind of the US government should totally legalize marijuana 641 00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:06,280 Speaker 1: to help you raise new taxes and from a new 642 00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:11,160 Speaker 1: industry and help pay for the stimulus. And I think 643 00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:13,839 Speaker 1: we'll start seeing again everything that was going to happen 644 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:15,560 Speaker 1: in five to ten years. Anyway, it was going to 645 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,560 Speaker 1: happen within the next year. So marijuana is going to 646 00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,319 Speaker 1: be legalized nationally colleges, people are going to start to 647 00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:25,120 Speaker 1: really suspect, hey, is this worth it? Home ownership is 648 00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:28,160 Speaker 1: a joke. And you and I both know everybody who 649 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:30,839 Speaker 1: was like, I'm a proud New Yorker. They left New 650 00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:34,920 Speaker 1: York the second. The second there was one case of 651 00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:39,400 Speaker 1: coronavirus in New York, so both they the whole homeownership 652 00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:41,480 Speaker 1: wasn't anything. And by the way, what's going to happen 653 00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:44,120 Speaker 1: to real estate prices. Nobody's going to be that eager 654 00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,080 Speaker 1: eager to move into an expensive apartment in New York 655 00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:49,600 Speaker 1: City knowing that the second way of a coronavirus might 656 00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:51,600 Speaker 1: head any day and they're going to have to abandon 657 00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:53,520 Speaker 1: their homes again, so I think real estate is going 658 00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:55,560 Speaker 1: to be in flux for a while as well. All right, 659 00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:58,239 Speaker 1: James al Tutor. Everybody check them out The James al 660 00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:01,720 Speaker 1: Tutor Show. It's a podcast. Also follow him on Twitter. 661 00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:05,280 Speaker 1: I do follow on social media. Check out his books. James, 662 00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:06,920 Speaker 1: great to talk to you man. Come back and hang 663 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,319 Speaker 1: with us soon. Yeah, fuck anytime. Thanks for having me 664 00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:09,760 Speaker 1: on the show.