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Speaker 1: Well, speaking of news, let's move on to China. We

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Speaker 1: are waiting for the big trade data supposed to be

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Speaker 1: seeing another decrease actually in China's exports and in their imports.

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Speaker 1: We're happy to be joined now by Victor Gausa University

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Speaker 1: Chair Professor and Center for China and Globalization Vice President. Victor,

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the show. Let's start with it. Well, it's

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Speaker 1: a great perfect time because there's so many important questions

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Speaker 1: to ask you about China, and I think we start

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Speaker 1: with almost everybody. So when it comes to the reopening, uh,

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Speaker 1: number one, is this a true turnaround? We're not. They're

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Speaker 1: not going to go back. And number two, how long

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Speaker 1: is it going to take for a true reopening to unfold?

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Speaker 1: First of all, I think China is in a very

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Speaker 1: important transition period from the original version of a zero

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Speaker 1: COVID dynamic policy to a new version, and this new

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Speaker 1: transition period will be of great uncertainty and high risk. However,

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure that once China is through with this

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Speaker 1: transition period, the Chinese economy will rebound and this will

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Speaker 1: be very good news not only for China but for

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Speaker 1: global economy. How long this will take? I think the

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Speaker 1: estimate is roughly up to about six months, so starting

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Speaker 1: from spring next year it should be very much on

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Speaker 1: the up side. I think this is a much quicker pivot,

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Speaker 1: if I can use that term, than the market had

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Speaker 1: been expecting. It seems pretty abrupt. We can debate whether

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Speaker 1: or not the protest had any impact on this, but Victor,

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Speaker 1: I'd like to get your take on whether or not

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Speaker 1: there's a real risk that the pendulum swings the other way.

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Speaker 1: If there's a spike in cases, maybe some depths, maybe

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Speaker 1: the health system on the mainline is overwhelmed. Could we

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Speaker 1: see a move, a sharp move in the other direction

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Speaker 1: in a dramatic way. Well, I think the concern is

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Speaker 1: well placed. However, we need to put this in perspective.

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Speaker 1: I think for the past three years China has been

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Speaker 1: in a race against time in dealing with pandemic, and

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Speaker 1: up to today, China has already enjoyed a lot of advantages,

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Speaker 1: not only in terms of minimizing the deaths and infections

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Speaker 1: for the Chinese people, but also we have won the

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Speaker 1: race in terms of the declining toxicity of the virus

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Speaker 1: itself and the better understanding of the virus and all

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Speaker 1: its different kinds. Of variants and better preparedness in terms

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Speaker 1: of pp of all kinds of UH vaccines and also cures.

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Speaker 1: So in this sense, I think now that we are

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Speaker 1: making this transition, the whole country is better prepared. On

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Speaker 1: the other hand, I think during this transition period it

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Speaker 1: is expected that more people will be infected and there

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Speaker 1: might be unfortunately more deaths. But comparing with other countries,

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Speaker 1: I think China is in a very unique advantaged position

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Speaker 1: right now. You're dealing with this transition. That seems to

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Speaker 1: me like a very good perspective to have. So what

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Speaker 1: does this mean for the economy. What can we expect

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Speaker 1: in terms of people be getting out, shopping, things picking

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Speaker 1: up again. As of this morning, I learned Beiting, where

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Speaker 1: I'm based right now, has lifted almost all the restrictions,

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Speaker 1: So you're expecting to see people going to restaurants, hotels,

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Speaker 1: entertainment centers more or less without any other excessive restrictions.

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Speaker 1: Daily life will be very much normalized, and then UH

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Speaker 1: economic activities will also be very much normalized, and I

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Speaker 1: would say Beijing will be a very important signal for

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Speaker 1: the rest of the country. If Beijing can do this,

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure the rest of the country will be

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Speaker 1: able to do this. One thing we need to be

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Speaker 1: aware of is that it is expected that more people

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Speaker 1: will be infected, but hopefully they will recover very They

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Speaker 1: do not need to go to a hospital to be

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Speaker 1: treated that much. They can stay more as homebound, and

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Speaker 1: then economic activities and daily life will really be normalized

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Speaker 1: as much as we have victor. I'm wondering whether there

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Speaker 1: is kind of a legacy or or a lasting impact

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Speaker 1: here of the pandemic on the society of the mainland,

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Speaker 1: and whether or not things have been fraid and whether

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Speaker 1: we're underestimating the time that it's going to take for

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Speaker 1: for people to heal, you know, in relation to one

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Speaker 1: another in a societal way, as well as the mental

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Speaker 1: health component. You've got to wonder about that. Absolutely. I

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Speaker 1: think there may be long term impacts of all these

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Speaker 1: very excessive measures in dealing with this pandemic. However, on

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Speaker 1: the other hand, I think one good thing is that

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Speaker 1: if anyone really thinks about this in objectivity and indecency,

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Speaker 1: then the overall goal of the policy for the past

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Speaker 1: three years by the Channel its government is to minimize

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Speaker 1: deaths and infections, and to that extent, I think all

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Speaker 1: of us, our beneficiaries of this policy, while every one

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Speaker 1: of us has been inconvenience quite extensively throughout our daily

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Speaker 1: lives for past three years. So I hope the nation

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Speaker 1: will be very philosophical in looking at that there are

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Speaker 1: ups and downs, advantages and disadvantages over the past three years.

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Speaker 1: But then when everything comes down, when we look around

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Speaker 1: to see that how families, our friends are, colleagues are

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Speaker 1: still very much upper running, relatively healthy. Okay, that's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a good ending. Thank you, Victor Gau. This is

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Speaker 1: Daybreak Asia, and this is Bloomberg.