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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. We have a massive show today

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Speaker 1: because there are massive things happening in the world of sports,

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Speaker 1: and you'd think like it's May, we're out of football season,

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Speaker 1: where out of March madness, and that maybe the gambling

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Speaker 1: world would slow down, But that's not how it works anymore,

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Speaker 1: because the first weekend in May has also become a massive,

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Speaker 1: massive gambling weekend because there's always a massive fight, So

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Speaker 1: there was Canelo and Daniel Jacob this weekend. There's always

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Speaker 1: the Kentucky Derby, which made a little bit of news,

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Speaker 1: and the NBA playoffs are so exciting an interest sting Um.

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Speaker 1: It's brought a new level to me um in terms

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Speaker 1: of how I think people are engaging with the sport

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Speaker 1: because I think betting is having a big impact on it. Um.

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Speaker 1: Later on in the show, we're gonna have uh, Colin

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Speaker 1: Wilson and Stucky because also college football season win totals

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Speaker 1: are popping up all over the place this past week,

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Speaker 1: so we're gonna dig into that. But first we are

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Speaker 1: going to talk about the NBA with Mr Matt Moore

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Speaker 1: from the Action Network. Matt's how you doing, buddy, I'm

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Speaker 1: doing great, man. Now I'm here in Portland for the

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Speaker 1: first time, enjoying the city and a stellar series when

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Speaker 1: the Nuggets and Blazer has been really fascinating. You've never

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Speaker 1: been to Portland before. I hadn't been able to make

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Speaker 1: it out, Like I've been to so many Western conferences

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Speaker 1: in the cities and and I like both of them

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Speaker 1: in the East as well. But whatever reason, like this

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Speaker 1: one had just slipt through my fingers, so I checked

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Speaker 1: off another one this weekend. That's awesome, Like, I'm surprised

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Speaker 1: given that you're, you know, out there in the hinter

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Speaker 1: lands of Kyle Rotto. Uh. Portland's amazing, and this is

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Speaker 1: a great series. Here's my frustration with this series. And

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Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about all the series. We're gonna talk

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Speaker 1: about the Wars and the Rockets. We're gonna talk about

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Speaker 1: obviously the Nuggets and the Blazers, the Raptors and the Sixers,

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Speaker 1: which is becoming incredibly fascinating because of Kauai and obviously

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Speaker 1: the Celtics in the Bucks. Let's start with the Nuggets

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Speaker 1: and the Blazers, who played another epic game last night.

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Speaker 1: One twelve. This is Monday morning. They played last night

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Speaker 1: Sunday Um the Blazer. The The total on this game

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Speaker 1: was to fifteen. It closed to two ten. Everyone was

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Speaker 1: betting the under because of that massive quadruple overtime game

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Speaker 1: the other night. The Nuggets are an incredibly frustrating team

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Speaker 1: to watch. I feel like they are what the eighth

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Speaker 1: youngest team in the playoffs in NBA history, and I

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Speaker 1: feel like they play like their age. Tons of passes

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Speaker 1: throwing cross court that make me nervous every time I

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Speaker 1: see him go in the air. But I also feel

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Speaker 1: like they just drive to the bass, get with no

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Speaker 1: real plan, and half the time it feels like they

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Speaker 1: missed a layup, or the ball gets stripped, or they

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Speaker 1: lose control of the ball jumping into a forest of players.

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Speaker 1: Am I wrong? Tell me what I'm missing here? I

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Speaker 1: think you're right, except that you've confused the Denver Nuggets

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Speaker 1: with just Jamal Murray. That's that's really. If there's one

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Speaker 1: prop that I wish that we could get on UM

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Speaker 1: for not probably Game five, but for Game six, it

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Speaker 1: would be Jamal Murray turnovers and take the over on

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Speaker 1: that UM. Murray dribbles in his into trouble more than

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Speaker 1: almost any point guard because he doesn't have elite quickness.

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Speaker 1: His first step is not like top level, and so

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Speaker 1: he struggles getting around when you apply pressure on him.

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Speaker 1: Even with the big ian, his canner comes up on

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Speaker 1: him and he can't turn the corner on the baseline,

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Speaker 1: and so a lot of what you're talking about is,

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Speaker 1: you know, they'll come over the screen and try and

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Speaker 1: hedge a little bit with another guy coming over to

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Speaker 1: stop Yokich on the trigger, and the in most point

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Speaker 1: guards are going to turn the corner on canner, get underneath,

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Speaker 1: and then when learned their underneath and there's not a shot,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna loop back around for what's commonly referred to

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Speaker 1: as the Nash loop, which is you zip under the

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Speaker 1: bat the faceline, come out the other side, turn around

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Speaker 1: and take a jumper. But Murray doesn't have that in

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Speaker 1: the skill set yet because he's twenty two, and so,

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Speaker 1: you know, his conversion to point guard has always been

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Speaker 1: a little difficult. He thinks that he's a point guard.

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Speaker 1: Everyone else is kind of like, well, you're kind of

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Speaker 1: a point guard. But a good thing that yokis, you know,

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Speaker 1: is able to pass the way that he does. Their

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Speaker 1: execution can look brilliant at times, their executions can look

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Speaker 1: dangerous at times. Um they always it's this roller coaster

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Speaker 1: with the Nuggets living on the edge of everything. You

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Speaker 1: mentioned that total, which I thought was really fascinating, and

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Speaker 1: actually like all of the media were like fascinated when

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Speaker 1: I was telling them about how that had moved, because

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Speaker 1: it moved back to two ten and sat there until

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Speaker 1: late yesterday and then that it just got the The

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Speaker 1: over got hammered, and that's when I got in on

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Speaker 1: it because I was I was into the over as well,

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Speaker 1: because I knew that this was if there was one

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Speaker 1: thing that was gonna happen coming off before over times,

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Speaker 1: if the legs were shot, nobody was gonna play defense,

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Speaker 1: and there are some good defense played last night. But

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Speaker 1: I just think both teams actually just really stepped it

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Speaker 1: up offensively. Well, it's interesting you look at two ten,

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Speaker 1: you think, is this really going to be a one

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Speaker 1: oh six, one oh four game? Like with with the

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Speaker 1: Denver Nuggets and Dame Lillard and Yokich and Jamal Jamal

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Speaker 1: Murray hoisting every chance he gets, like, there's just no

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Speaker 1: way possible. So to ten seemed like an automatic take

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Speaker 1: in the over It's interesting you say that their legs

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Speaker 1: would be tired, because a lot of people were making

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Speaker 1: that about all right, the shooting is not going to

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Speaker 1: be as good, the scoring will be lower. No one

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Speaker 1: talked about the fact that no one was going to

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Speaker 1: be playing defense in that game. Yeah, except Dots. We

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Speaker 1: had we had over at Action Network and we talked

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Speaker 1: about how that that's really the key there is when

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Speaker 1: you when you're warned own, your lateral mobility is kind

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Speaker 1: of the first thing to go. My veterans has told

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Speaker 1: me this that when you're when you're running on short legs,

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Speaker 1: it's really hard to get yourself up to hedge laterally

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Speaker 1: the way that you have in order to contain guards.

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Speaker 1: And so I give the penetration. And honestly, you thought

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Speaker 1: with Portland last night, I thought Portland looked more tired

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Speaker 1: than Denver because Denver was sliding past them and driving kicking.

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Speaker 1: There were sequences where the Nuggets I think ran like

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Speaker 1: six consecutive driving kicks h and that's just too much

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Speaker 1: fermitter penetration to try and contain. Eventually, somebody who's going

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Speaker 1: to get open and have a good look. And you know,

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Speaker 1: Dever was able to hit enough of their shots and

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Speaker 1: then crashed the glass last night. That's the other keys.

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Speaker 1: You know, thought ENA's Canada looked really worn out because

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Speaker 1: the Nuggets absolutely just crushed them on the offensive last

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Speaker 1: and when you're getting the second chance points, you can't.

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Speaker 1: You can't let Denver have any sort of edges offensively

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Speaker 1: because they've got too many weapons and too much firepower.

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Speaker 1: That's what's kind of crazy about the series is the

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Speaker 1: Blazers have Damian Lillard and c J McCullum, who, by

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Speaker 1: the way, mccullums having just an absolutely incredible series. I'm

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Speaker 1: ready to just hammer the over on his point every

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Speaker 1: single night. Um. But Denver has more firepower because they're

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Speaker 1: more evenly distributed and because Yokich makes the most of

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Speaker 1: it on every single possession. He is amazing. He is

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Speaker 1: stunning to watch, and even when he is sort of

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Speaker 1: just casually making a pass in their half court offense,

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Speaker 1: the way he scans the floor and it's the fast

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Speaker 1: twitch muscles in his arms and wrists, like the way

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Speaker 1: the synapses fire from his brain to the rest of

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Speaker 1: his body. He doesn't need to have a better body,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't need to run faster because his mind is

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Speaker 1: working so quickly and his body is able to translate

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Speaker 1: that at a paste, like I wish we could measure that,

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Speaker 1: because that might be better than anyone else in the

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Speaker 1: NBA and the playoffs that they are all about that too,

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Speaker 1: that it's the mental stuff is really what stands out.

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Speaker 1: Like people will always wonder like, why isn't this guy playing?

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Speaker 1: Why isn't this guy playing? He was so important at

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Speaker 1: the regular season, And the answer is usually like, well,

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Speaker 1: he's not basketball smart. Like you can be really a

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Speaker 1: smart person off the floor and just be a complete

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Speaker 1: dodo on and quite the opposite as well, But if

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Speaker 1: you make mistakes like that's killer in the playoff game.

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Speaker 1: You know, I'm actually writing about this for action. I

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Speaker 1: got some quote last night talking about the folks about

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Speaker 1: there's a play was about one four team left in

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Speaker 1: the game where they ran clock. Murray got stymy because

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Speaker 1: he couldn't get around anybody. He passed the Yoki Yokich

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Speaker 1: fakes the dribble handoff and he turns around and he's

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Speaker 1: got a shot, and like nine of the league is

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Speaker 1: gonna take that mid range jump shot, I'm gonna can

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Speaker 1: this jumper and we're gonna win, and he hesitates, he waits,

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Speaker 1: he nods towards the rim. Harris sees it, immediately makes

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Speaker 1: a cut. Yokas delivers a perfect path, floats it over,

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Speaker 1: Harris finishes, and one like everyone talks about Murray's free

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Speaker 1: throws and that kid did have ice in his veins,

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Speaker 1: But that passed from Yoka is is so indicative of

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Speaker 1: what he brings the game his patients to recognize down

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Speaker 1: the clock. If I wait here, I'm going to have

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Speaker 1: an a chance for a better play making this pass

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Speaker 1: only I could make getting it to Harris for name one.

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Speaker 1: So the theory in in betting on the n b

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Speaker 1: A and betting on a series is often you bet

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Speaker 1: on the player. You bet on the star player who

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Speaker 1: is going to be the best player on the court, right,

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Speaker 1: And that's sometimes how you judge whether or not you

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Speaker 1: want to bet on a series. Is Yokich the best

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Speaker 1: player on the court between these two teams? Is he

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Speaker 1: better than Lillard? So the way I was kind of

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Speaker 1: framing is there's better in terms of overall skill ability, um,

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Speaker 1: and then there's better in terms of impact. And Kevin

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Speaker 1: Durant is a better player than Steph Curry Steph Curry's

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Speaker 1: has a lot more impact. Quick plug also right about

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Speaker 1: that for Action Network Today. Um, what's crazy in this

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Speaker 1: series though, is that when Yokich is on the floor,

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Speaker 1: the Nuggets or something like plus nineteen in debt rating

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Speaker 1: and they're like a minus nine when he's on the bench.

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Speaker 1: Essentially like they killed Portland's in every minute that that

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Speaker 1: Yoka is on court and they get smoked whenever he

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Speaker 1: sits down and with Dame, you know, he's having a

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Speaker 1: rough series. Um. They actually asked him about that last night. Um. Royce,

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Speaker 1: young male colleague from TVs who works the ESPN, asked

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Speaker 1: about how they're crowding kind of Lillard space and Malone

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Speaker 1: because Michael Malone is thankfully we're really kind of transparent

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Speaker 1: and open. Guy was like, you know, we watched the

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Speaker 1: film and we still okay, see was giving Lillard too

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Speaker 1: much space, which is like he's like, it's not a

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Speaker 1: knock on okay, See, that's just what they chose to do.

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Speaker 1: Although all of us were like, it's absolutely knocked on. Okay, see,

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Speaker 1: why would they do this? It was so dumb. Um,

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Speaker 1: they're crowding Lillard a lot more and he's still getting

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Speaker 1: points but it always feels like a non impactful scoring

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Speaker 1: they lose from from Dame. I think Dame is probably

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Speaker 1: gonna have a say in this here season by time

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Speaker 1: it's done. But the best player in the series has,

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Speaker 1: unquestioningly then Yoki. Yoki has probably been honestly behind durant

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Speaker 1: uh Kauai and and maybe Dame in that first round series,

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Speaker 1: but I don't know anymore. Considering how it's gone second round,

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Speaker 1: he's been three or four in the best players in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. And for a guy his age, with his

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Speaker 1: skill set, with his body type, um, it's absolutely incredible.

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Speaker 1: Do you think and you're in Denver, so you're in

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Speaker 1: Colorado and you're like, you follow the Nuggets closely, do

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Speaker 1: you think during the off season Yokich commits to getting

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Speaker 1: in even better shape. And I'm not I'm not using

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Speaker 1: this in a pejorative way. I have no idea what

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Speaker 1: his regiment is, like, I have no idea like how

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Speaker 1: good his stamina is. I'm basically entirely in the fact

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Speaker 1: that you know, he's kind of a dougheye looking dude,

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Speaker 1: and so do you think he needs to be a

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Speaker 1: more muscular guy in order to be even better or

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Speaker 1: would that not make a difference. Would that just be optics.

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Speaker 1: I don't think so. Um so that he had a

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Speaker 1: quote the other day talking about his weight and he

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Speaker 1: was actually like, honestly, I'm a little light right now.

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Speaker 1: He's like, I'd like to add a little bit away.

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Speaker 1: Um for how he plays, he hasn't been in a

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Speaker 1: series where anybody has been able to play him off before. Um,

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Speaker 1: that's gonna change it he gets older. I think if

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Speaker 1: he gets older, he's definitely gonna have to make adjustments.

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Speaker 1: But for right now, like he's got the long capacity,

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Speaker 1: he's got the energy. Part of what's what's been important

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Speaker 1: in the series is you look at him and you're

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Speaker 1: just like, like, I can't do anything like me. On defense,

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Speaker 1: he's too he's too dowey and slow. But he's better

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Speaker 1: in this series because versus San Antonio, they can play

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Speaker 1: him at the level of the screen, which means like

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Speaker 1: he's better attacking guards up front than he is like

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Speaker 1: having to hang back and trying to contain when you

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Speaker 1: get him downhill like Dame has several times in the series,

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Speaker 1: he's toast, but when he's up and attacking you aggressively

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Speaker 1: at the level trying to head you sideways. He's actually

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Speaker 1: really really good and impactfully, he's gotten much better there

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Speaker 1: on defense. Um, I think actually he's gonna be this

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Speaker 1: same way. He was kind of like caught off Guarden,

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Speaker 1: annoyed by all the talk about the endurance. He was like,

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Speaker 1: it's fine. He's like, I'm in good shape. It's okay.

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Speaker 1: And I think he may be one of those guys.

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Speaker 1: But like he looks that way. But look, after sixty

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Speaker 1: five minutes most most that we've seen in a long

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Speaker 1: time on Friday night, he turns around and has another

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Speaker 1: gem of the game last night and plays heavy minute

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Speaker 1: And I think at this point he's earned the BedHead

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Speaker 1: of doubt to be like, I don't think he needs

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Speaker 1: to do anything else. Like I think he's good. I

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Speaker 1: think I think yo kids can handle it no matter

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Speaker 1: how he looks. Well. Look, he's twenty four years old, right,

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Speaker 1: and so like he could play sixty five minutes one

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Speaker 1: night and come back two nights later and play a

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Speaker 1: boatload of minutes and be as dominant as he is.

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Speaker 1: Right now, the series is tied to two. It's going

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Speaker 1: back to Denver Um. The Nuggets in Game five are

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Speaker 1: four and a half point favorites. This game open to

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Speaker 1: to twelve. It's been bet up to to twelve and

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Speaker 1: a half, bed up to two thirteen and a half.

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Speaker 1: Are you buying Denver for the rest of the series.

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Speaker 1: I like the series price You're getting them at my

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Speaker 1: right now, and with two games at home out of

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Speaker 1: Apostle Threne, I think that probably sets up best for Denver. Um.

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Speaker 1: Portland's extended the series on the backs of guys like

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Speaker 1: Enis Canter and Rocking Hood and Zach Collins, and you

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Speaker 1: can get games out of those guys in limited spurts.

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Speaker 1: The problem is as these series go on, those guys

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Speaker 1: that gave you surprisingly good minute, that's when they start

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Speaker 1: to fade, and you know the nuggets that they have

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Speaker 1: more guys that you can kind of count on. The

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Speaker 1: nuggets I think have gotten better as a series, has

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Speaker 1: gotten gotten on even after starting out one oh UM

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Speaker 1: and even after that that real heartbreaker four O T.

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Speaker 1: Like they played really great in that four O T

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Speaker 1: and just couldn't get the breaks to fall their way.

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Speaker 1: So I like Denver for the series, and I gotta

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Speaker 1: think on that four and a half line, you know,

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Speaker 1: I think it's I wish it opened a little bit tighter. UM.

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Speaker 1: And with game I'm all because he saw it last night,

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Speaker 1: like the Blazers just made them, like just force them

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Speaker 1: to stretch it out. I do think, um that more

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Speaker 1: and more I'm liking the over. Um, there's been a

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Speaker 1: couple of surprises there, but like part of it, you

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Speaker 1: just have to kind of factor all right, let's let's

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Speaker 1: let's bet on standardized offensive shooting performance. Right Like last

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Speaker 1: nime was easy because it was a super low line.

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Speaker 1: UM and like I said, like the legs were gonna

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Speaker 1: be tired on defense. But I think that you know,

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Speaker 1: this has been an offensively tilted series if you look

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Speaker 1: at kind of the advanced metrics, and I think that

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Speaker 1: Portland's wants to get out and kind of push and Denver, Denver,

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Speaker 1: especially since Game three has been on a mission to

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Speaker 1: get out. He that's why Yo get just throwing those

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Speaker 1: baseball outlets on almost every rebound. They want to push

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Speaker 1: pace and so if they keep attacking, I think that

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Speaker 1: the totals are gonna get out there. Um, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: think long and hard, especially about the Nuggets team total

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Speaker 1: over which I think is one oh seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: The other one of seven or one on nine. I

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Speaker 1: think I'm gonna be on that in particular. You love

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Speaker 1: love love team total overs. I do. I do know

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Speaker 1: being able to target it gives you a little bit

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Speaker 1: of I think also if you're if you if you

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Speaker 1: try and think, if they're like, I think the team

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Speaker 1: is gonna win. But I'm not sure with the line,

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Speaker 1: but either gonna If they're gonna win the game, they're

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Speaker 1: gonna probably put up a higher number. Uh and it

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Speaker 1: free throws at the end, we're gonna probably bump it

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Speaker 1: up a little bit. Uh. And they're gonna be a

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Speaker 1: team that fortunate stuff happens for you know, Like I'm

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Speaker 1: I'm being real, I'm multiplying the opposite, like I'm on

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Speaker 1: the bus on the under uh in one of these

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Speaker 1: games coming out, because I think that Boston's gonna respond

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Speaker 1: offensively with market smart and with that kind of a

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Speaker 1: of a layout. Those the kind of things that I'm

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Speaker 1: factoring in. I've just had more success by anyse team

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Speaker 1: totals than getting stuck where you're like, I nailed it.

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Speaker 1: This team killed it offensively. Oh No, They're up twenty

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Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter and they're sitting everyone with five

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Speaker 1: and their bench is terrible. I've gotten hung on the

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Speaker 1: Raptors like four times in these playoffs, uh with the

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Speaker 1: team totals where the mind totals, just because of those

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Speaker 1: weird outlier performances. So I'm trying to control as many

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Speaker 1: of the variables in the NBA, which everyone knows is

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Speaker 1: such a hard sport to bet. That's what I'm trying

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Speaker 1: to control as many variables as possible. Alright, So let's

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Speaker 1: talk about Kauai. I want to focus actually before we

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Speaker 1: do that, we're gonna focus mostly on Raptors Sixers and

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Speaker 1: Nuggets Blazers because we're recording this on Monday morning. Buck

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Speaker 1: Celtics and um Warriors Rockets played tonight. But I do

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Speaker 1: want to say, let's say that we both believe the

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Speaker 1: Nuggets are going to advance. Do they have any chance

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Speaker 1: in your eyes against the Warriors or the Rockets? Both

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Speaker 1: of those teams, to me, seems like they just played

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Speaker 1: a more mature, different level than either of the teams

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Speaker 1: that we're watching right now. The teams were watching right now,

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Speaker 1: I feel like incredibly energetic young teams that have so

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Speaker 1: much talent, but they don't know how to control it yet.

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Speaker 1: Whereas the other teams, you like, they're playing a much

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Speaker 1: different level of basketball. So I'm gonna find ways to

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Speaker 1: doubt myself. And I'm trying really hard not to overthink

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Speaker 1: the Western Conference Finals, like I'm prepared to get in

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Speaker 1: if it's Warriors, I'm prepared to get in on not

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Speaker 1: only the Warriors to win the series, but to look

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Speaker 1: very seriously at Warriors and four. I'm probably gonna put

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Speaker 1: a bigger chunk down on Warriors and five because they

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Speaker 1: love to give you one. The Warriors love to give

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Speaker 1: teams like, here you go, it's fine, We'll cause that oracle.

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Speaker 1: It's cool. Um Like, that's that's already where I'm gonna be.

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Speaker 1: Houston has just been the nightmare matchup for Denver. I

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Speaker 1: don't honestly believe that Houston is that much better than Denver.

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Speaker 1: I think they've they've built their team to match up

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Speaker 1: well with the Warriors, so we're all like, well, they

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Speaker 1: match up well with the best team, so they must

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Speaker 1: be also as good a team. And I'm just not

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Speaker 1: sure that that's the case. If it's Houston Denver, though,

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Speaker 1: the matchups just go all the way everything that Denver

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Speaker 1: has working for them versus Portland and the series is

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Speaker 1: still going at least six, it's not seven games. Um

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Speaker 1: is the opposite where Denver just has zero matchup advantages

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Speaker 1: versus of the Rockets. So I'm gonna be looking very,

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Speaker 1: very heavily at series prices for for you know, Rockets

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Speaker 1: and four Rockets and five Warriors and four Warriors and

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Speaker 1: five and I'm gonna just basically trust that the Nuggets,

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Speaker 1: as much as they've surprised me this year, don't have

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Speaker 1: that kind of surprise in them. All right, speaking of surprises,

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Speaker 1: the Philadelphia seventy sixers are so up and down, right.

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Speaker 1: Are they the team that can blow you out? Are

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Speaker 1: they the team that's gonna lose by twenty? Are they

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Speaker 1: the team that's gonna get dominated by Kauai? Like? Who

378
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Speaker 1: is this team right now? I think a lot of

379
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Speaker 1: it has to do with the fact that, you know,

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Speaker 1: and beat was sick yesterday and that was kind of

381
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Speaker 1: underreported when he played before that game, uh, And I

382
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Speaker 1: think that that had a huge impact on how that

383
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Speaker 1: one played out, where if he's not right, like they're

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Speaker 1: really dependent on him to open everything up. Butler can

385
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Speaker 1: force some issues. But with Butler, he's trying very it's

386
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Speaker 1: a lot of hero ball stuff, and you can make

387
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Speaker 1: it happen because it's really good, but I think your

388
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Speaker 1: your chance is kind of diminished. Like we said going

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Speaker 1: into the series that you know, the Raptors had all

390
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Speaker 1: these tactical advantages, and that's still kind of true. When

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Speaker 1: you watch them play out, you're like, Wow, the Raptors

392
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Speaker 1: have a lot of edges here, but the Sixers have Basically,

393
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Speaker 1: they run fast, they jump high, they make shots and

394
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Speaker 1: like that, and they're and they're tall, and that's It's

395
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Speaker 1: this weird kind of balance between the Raptors execution and

396
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Speaker 1: the Sixers physical advantages. And I think that's one of

397
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Speaker 1: the reasons that you see this up and down where

398
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Speaker 1: when the Raptors settle in and they actually execute, they're

399
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Speaker 1: able to control these games the way they did one

400
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Speaker 1: than four and when the when the Raptors don't do that,

401
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,040
Speaker 1: it looks like the Sixers are just running all over them.

402
00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:55,879
Speaker 1: I feel like in this series, the Raptors still have

403
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:58,720
Speaker 1: control in that if the Raptors do what they need

404
00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 1: to do, they can win these games. They can take

405
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Speaker 1: care of business. The Sixers need the Raptors to underperform.

406
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Speaker 1: I think to win this series and they underperform massively

407
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Speaker 1: in two and three. Um, that's why I'm I'm real

408
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Speaker 1: cautious with the series from a betting perspective because I

409
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Speaker 1: don't feel like I can trust either team. I can't

410
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Speaker 1: trust the Sixers to win a game in which the

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Speaker 1: Raptors play well, and I can't trust the Raptors to

412
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Speaker 1: play well. So I've been very hesitant about this one.

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Speaker 1: I think because of all those variables, is it the

414
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Speaker 1: same philosophy, then Kawhi Leonard is going to be the

415
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Speaker 1: most dominant player on the court. Do you just bet

416
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Speaker 1: on Kawhi Leonard If you're gonna bet on this series,

417
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Speaker 1: I think you're gonna bet on Kawhi Leonard. I think

418
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,359
Speaker 1: you're gonna bet on home court. I think you're gonna

419
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Speaker 1: bet on you know, a standardized uh Lowry performance. Like

420
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Speaker 1: we have to believe that Game three was like the

421
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Speaker 1: lowest point for Kyle Lowry in this series, and Lowry

422
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Speaker 1: found a lot of ways that to sink below those

423
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 1: notions in previous Playoffs series. Um, but if if he

424
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Speaker 1: just has like a normal game, just like eyes, fine,

425
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Speaker 1: then that's just that's huge for Toronto. When he's horrible.

426
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 1: The bottom drops out. Marcus Sol has had a bad series.

427
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:16,160
Speaker 1: I think he's probably got a better game in him. Um.

428
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 1: I do think that, you know, the bench remains a

429
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 1: really big edge for the Sixers, Like I'm gonna continue

430
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 1: to be at the second the second period on Philly

431
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:29,239
Speaker 1: consistently because of their bench edge, which everyone was kind

432
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,679
Speaker 1: of i think misinformed on that. Everyone was talking about, Oh,

433
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:33,399
Speaker 1: the Raptors are deeper, and I'm like, what have you

434
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,920
Speaker 1: been watching? Like the Raptors have they traded all of

435
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 1: their great bench players from last year and it's been

436
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 1: a train wreck, And the Sixers have kind of cobbled

437
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 1: together enough bench sheet players and have the depth now

438
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 1: that kind of stagger their starters, so that that's like

439
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,399
Speaker 1: the only real edge. I think that, you know, Kauai

440
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:51,919
Speaker 1: is a big edge in the series, and he was

441
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 1: just he's just been incredible, Like every single possession you're sure,

442
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 1: you're like, that's going in splash, that's going in splash.

443
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,879
Speaker 1: You watch him and you never expect him to miss um.

444
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 1: If he has an off game, they're in real trouble.

445
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 1: No team is maybe more dependent on him. But he's

446
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 1: also been so consistent, so at some level, I think

447
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 1: you have to bank on the guys like this kind

448
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 1: of goes back to Portland, Denver as well. Yoga has

449
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,640
Speaker 1: been consistent. He's just every single night he's given you

450
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 1: at least seventeen if not twenty five, and he's given you,

451
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 1: you know, at least seven assists if not eleven, and

452
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,160
Speaker 1: he's given you at least ten remounts. Like that, You're

453
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 1: getting these consistent performances from dudes. I think those are

454
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:34,680
Speaker 1: the guys maybe that you want to target to follow. Alright,

455
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 1: so do we think that the Raptors are a better

456
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,199
Speaker 1: team than the Bucks. I'm handicapping the Bucks are going

457
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,959
Speaker 1: to beat the Celtics, we end up with a Raptors

458
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 1: Raptors Bucks Eastern Conference Final. We end up with a

459
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 1: Nuggets Warriors, let's say Western Conference Final. A. Are there

460
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 1: any high profile enough teams? We know we got Kauhia,

461
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 1: we know get Joannice that will make this interesting for

462
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:07,400
Speaker 1: a finals matchup that everyone's gonna want to watch because

463
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:11,880
Speaker 1: it might just be the Warriors, I think, especially for

464
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,439
Speaker 1: for our audience, Like I'm I'm hoping and praying for

465
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:19,160
Speaker 1: that Bucks Warriors finals um, because the Warriors will will

466
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:23,359
Speaker 1: we'll get a disproportionate line considering where the money's gonna

467
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 1: come in, because the casual better is gonna hammer Golden

468
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 1: State being like, oh no, no, there's no way Milwaukee's

469
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:32,159
Speaker 1: beating him. Um Marcus Thompson in The Athletic had a

470
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 1: great piece when the Bucks beat him earlier in the

471
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 1: in the year, and it was basically about, if you

472
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 1: want to build a team to beat the Warriors, take

473
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:43,399
Speaker 1: a look at the Bucks, because the Warriors have a

474
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 1: hard time ever being like, no one guy is ever

475
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,399
Speaker 1: gonna beat us. That's why they they're not really worried

476
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 1: about Houston because they're like, Harden is good, but he's

477
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:52,919
Speaker 1: not gonna beat us. He just doesn't have it. But

478
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 1: they look at Janice and they're like, we can't do

479
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 1: anything with them. We can't physically handle him. And with

480
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 1: most guys like that in the Lady, they're like, all right,

481
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,399
Speaker 1: we'll just crash in and we'll just make sure. You know,

482
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 1: they don't have the shooting to keep up with us,

483
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 1: but the Bucks do have the shooting. So like, I'm

484
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 1: hoping for that Bucks Warriors finals because I think it'd

485
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,879
Speaker 1: be the best um. And also I think that the

486
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 1: value would be really good on Milwaukee to upset Golden State. UM.

487
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,199
Speaker 1: I continue to believe. I'm watching a lot of this

488
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 1: from from Game three, and you know, we'll say he's

489
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 1: we're recording this on Monday. The Warriors may take care

490
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,120
Speaker 1: of business and and look great in Game four UM

491
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 1: versus Houston, but there's still there's a lot of body language,

492
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 1: and when you talk to people around the league, this

493
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 1: stuff is consistent of I just think Golden State's ready

494
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 1: to be done. I just think they're worn out. I

495
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 1: think they're tired of dealing with one another, especially Kevin Durant.

496
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: I think they're tired of the drama. I think they're

497
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 1: exhausted from the run. I think they're ready for something new.

498
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,399
Speaker 1: I think the first team that really hits them in

499
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 1: the mouth, they're gonna be like, you know, let's screw it,

500
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,400
Speaker 1: We're done. Uh. And I just don't know who's gonna

501
00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 1: be able to pull that off. But I do think

502
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 1: that Milwaukee has a or a chance to do that.

503
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 1: All right, here's my final question for you. You did

504
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 1: this so well last time that I'm bringing it back.

505
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:18,159
Speaker 1: The Celtics versus the ninety six Bulls, we have we

506
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 1: NBA two k that the other day. Give me the handicap,

507
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,679
Speaker 1: who's favored by how much? And break it down for me.

508
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 1: All right, so boll they're gonna be favored, They're gonna

509
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:36,880
Speaker 1: have home court. Um, they're probably gonna be I would say,

510
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 1: let's put him at Honestly, that one's probably gonna be

511
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 1: a closer to UM minus. That's could be my four

512
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 1: and a half. Oh my god, I was thinking, yeah,

513
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:55,919
Speaker 1: it's gonna be bull of minus four and a half

514
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 1: because the home court gets them an extra you know,

515
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,359
Speaker 1: point point off there. And I think that, you know,

516
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 1: Jordan himself is probably like this is one of the

517
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,640
Speaker 1: things that I really want to someday have the resources

518
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 1: for us to find out. It's like, how much was

519
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 1: Jordan's worth to the line? Like if if Lebron's we

520
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 1: know that we know for a factor like Lebron's worth

521
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 1: between three and five depending on the matchup. Um, so

522
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 1: what was Jordan's like if Jordan was out? Is that

523
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 1: like a six point swing on the line. Like these

524
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 1: are the questions I think are really fascinating to go

525
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 1: back and try and answer. Um. The the key here

526
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 1: is that Boston is so that eight six team is

527
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 1: so interior oriented where you've got Parish and you've got McHale. Um.

528
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 1: But the Bulls have such great defenders inside, like they're

529
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 1: gonna have so much you know, Rod then is able

530
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 1: to guard any of those dudes even with the size disadvantage,

531
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 1: Like they're just gonna be able to do it. Um,

532
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 1: They've got so many guys that they can kind of

533
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,239
Speaker 1: throw at him. And I just think that the perimeter attacks, Like,

534
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,679
Speaker 1: I don't know, this is one of the keys. Is

535
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 1: you know, Bird was good defensively, but was limited in

536
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 1: terms of his mobile the what's he gonna do versus Pippen,

537
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 1: Like who are they going to hide him on? I

538
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,480
Speaker 1: think that's a real issue. Um. But I will say

539
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,119
Speaker 1: that like when you look at um kind of the

540
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 1: deeper guys for the Bulls like Steve Kerr and some

541
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 1: of these other guys and Ron Harper, I think those

542
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:16,919
Speaker 1: are guys where the Celtics on the edge with Dennis

543
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 1: Johnson are probably gonna have a little bit of an advantage. Um.

544
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 1: I would probably take the Celtics to cover and the

545
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 1: bull to win versus the four and a half line.

546
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: I love that breakdown. I completely agree here's what else.

547
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 1: Here's what. Here's what we're gonna do. We're going to

548
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:42,040
Speaker 1: create an all time NBA value against the point spread ranking. Yeah,

549
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 1: we gotta do that. That's great. We gotta do that.

550
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about that today. I'm gonna figure out

551
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 1: how to do that today. Matt Moore, you're way too busy.

552
00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 1: You're in Portland. Uh, you gotta go to Voodoo Donuts

553
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 1: if you haven't gone there already. And UM have a

554
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 1: great time covering the playoffs for the Action Network. You're

555
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 1: also recording five minute lines for the NBA Action for

556
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 1: the Action NBA podcast every day. People need to listen

557
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:08,960
Speaker 1: to that because it is all of this incredible NBA analysis,

558
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 1: UM summarize for your ears. Thanks for coming on the

559
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 1: podcast today, Matt Moore, I appreciate getting up early. Thanks

560
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,959
Speaker 1: for having me man. Good luck the rest of the way.

561
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 1: We are back on the favorite podcast with two of

562
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 1: my favorites. They're the host of the Action Network Colleges podcast, which,

563
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 1: honest to God, including the Favorites, maybe the best podcast

564
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 1: we do, smartest conversation, most enraged fans, UM knee deep

565
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 1: on on literally every small podunct team that you can

566
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 1: make a bet on throughout college basketball and college football.

567
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 1: Colin Wilson, Senior writer for the Action Network, Stucky whatever

568
00:29:54,600 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 1: he wants to be for the Action Network. What's it's, you, guys.

569
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 1: I appreciate the kind words and look, it's it's a

570
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 1: lot of work that we put in the podcast, but

571
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 1: things that turn out well, I think, and no matter

572
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 1: what you're talking about, usually people love them. And like

573
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 1: I honestly can speak for myself and say I love

574
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: doing it. I know Colin does too, Like I legitimately

575
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: miss doing that podcast twice a week and I can't

576
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 1: wait until July August rolls around and we can start

577
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 1: it back up again. And the hardest part for us

578
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 1: is the hardest part is us cutting each other ourselves off,

579
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 1: Like we're trying to make a compact podcast, but literally

580
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 1: we could talk for three or four hours about every

581
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 1: team and FBS. Yeah, that's what's stunning. Like and even

582
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 1: you know, and for people who are new to the

583
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 1: Action Network, order this podcast. Like when you guys, when

584
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 1: we did these um the periscopes, the live periscopes on

585
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 1: Saturday mornings, Like I remember Opening Weekend, you were talking

586
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 1: about the line on a Stony Brook game and you

587
00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 1: had legit analysis or like I remember in the Colleges

588
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 1: podcast for college basketball, you were sweating a Jackson State

589
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 1: Tennessee Martin game when it started, and not only were

590
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 1: you sweating it, everybody in the podcast had made the

591
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 1: bet independent of each other. That's the level of analysis

592
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 1: that you guys bring. I think it's interesting that most

593
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 1: people think that the generate game of the week is

594
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 1: the Hawaii game, but not for Stuck and Eye, it's Colgate.

595
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 1: It's incarnate word like we're we're everywhere alright. So let's

596
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 1: get to it though, because the reason I wanted you

597
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 1: guys on is because, um, the last few weeks. I

598
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 1: know that Colin, you were about this back in March

599
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 1: on Action Network, But the last few weeks we've started

600
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 1: to see more and more places rollout with college football

601
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 1: season win totals. Colin, last year, at this time, you

602
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 1: pegged Clemson as the team to beat for the college

603
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 1: football National Championship. Um, so I want to get into

604
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 1: it right away, Like, tell me, you're looking at the

605
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 1: board right now, We're is your future value? Who are

606
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 1: you thinking about? So Clemson? For me, it was it

607
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 1: was easy to say listen, Trevor Lawrence is the explosive

608
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 1: factor they need to beat Alabama. But you know what

609
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 1: behind that was a defense that was just gonna be

610
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 1: out of this world. That was gonna be drafted in

611
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 1: the NFL Draft, everybody in the first round. Uh So

612
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 1: it was easy to back that statement up about Clemson

613
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 1: when you had a defense like that. We don't have

614
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 1: a defense at least I have an identified one that's

615
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 1: going to be able to dominate other teams. You think

616
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 1: of Georgia two years ago with ro Kawan Smith. He

617
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 1: was the nickelback that just roamed the field and was

618
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 1: able to shut Oklahoma down. And I have not identified

619
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 1: a defense like that. So everybody has an excellent offense.

620
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 1: Oklahoma is going to have a worldly offense. Clemson is

621
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 1: going to have an unbelievable offense. You know, I think

622
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 1: people are not talking about Auburn. Uh they're quietly. I mean,

623
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 1: Malone has got a chip on his shoulder. They have

624
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 1: a red shirt freshman quarterback Joey Gatewood, and mark my words,

625
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 1: that kid is the Cam Newton protege. He looks just

626
00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 1: like Cam Newton. Uh he runs an RPO power set.

627
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:02,959
Speaker 1: Uh So I think there's gonna be a lot of

628
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 1: dynamic offenses, but we haven't yet identified the one defense

629
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 1: in college football yet that's going to be able to

630
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 1: stabilize their team and get them through the playoffs. So definitely,

631
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 1: I think Oklahoma is a team that people are just discounting,

632
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 1: but with Alex Durnch coming in a defensive coordinator, that's

633
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 1: gonna be you know, they are true national championship contenders

634
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 1: this year. Stuff. Do you have anything to add to that? Yeah,

635
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 1: I mean, look, the team that we had targeted. I

636
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 1: think Colin would would I would agree with this. Take

637
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 1: the team that we both had target right when the

638
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 1: odds came out Actually when we were sitting at Westgate

639
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 1: was on Georgia. And you know, talk about a team

640
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 1: that is going to be motivated more than any to

641
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 1: beat Alabama this year. If those two teams meet up again, Um,

642
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 1: you know, they lost some guys that I were hoping

643
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 1: would come back, but I still love their ross there.

644
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 1: I mean, look, the same the same players are going

645
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:00,960
Speaker 1: to end up being there. I mean, even if you

646
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 1: look at Alabama this year, Colum talked about their offense,

647
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 1: I mean, they're not conference schedule. They'll start with Duke

648
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 1: and they play New Mexico State, they play Southern Myths,

649
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 1: they play Western Caroline. I mean this is one of them.

650
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 1: I mean, this schedule is it is very conducive for

651
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 1: them being right back in the playoffs. You expect, you know,

652
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:22,840
Speaker 1: some of your major players again. But there's something about

653
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 1: Georgia that, you know, when they lost that game with

654
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:29,879
Speaker 1: the fake punts Alabama, that you just have that they're

655
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 1: gonna have a chip all season long with Kirby and

656
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:35,479
Speaker 1: you know, I think they're down to eight to one,

657
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:39,319
Speaker 1: which isn't the best value, but maybe if they you know,

658
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 1: if you can find a ten to one out there.

659
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:43,239
Speaker 1: But there's something about Georgia you would agree with Colin right,

660
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 1: I absolutely agree. We got the twelve to one when

661
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 1: it came out. It's down to eight to one. The

662
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 1: better value right now is plus two fifty on the

663
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 1: SEC Championship. It's I wouldn't go for the eight to one.

664
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 1: I take the plus two fifty on Georgia to win

665
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 1: the SEC and stucks, right. Do you know why they

666
00:34:57,920 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 1: went for a fake field goal against L s U

667
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:01,439
Speaker 1: And do you know why they had a fake punt

668
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 1: in the SEC Championship game? Because Kirby didn't trust his defense.

669
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 1: Now he's got a lot of players, some that were

670
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 1: injured last year, some that red shirted last year, and

671
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 1: they haven't identified their Rod Kuan Smith. They've set out

672
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,319
Speaker 1: in public we are looking for another road Kuan Smith

673
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 1: to leave the defense. They will be playing with a

674
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:20,280
Speaker 1: chip on the shoulder, same as Gus Malazan world for Auburn,

675
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 1: I don't like Alabama this year at all. Now I

676
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 1: mathematically can't justify it, you know, because I've got the

677
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 1: middle eleven point four and their win total is at

678
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 1: eleven and Stuck is right. They play these teams that

679
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 1: just sets them up nonconference wise. They they always have

680
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 1: this cake schedule. I mean, Duke, I mean, I mean,

681
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,360
Speaker 1: that's that's ridiculous. But they do have to go to

682
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 1: Texas and them, and they do have to go to

683
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:43,760
Speaker 1: Mississippi State and Auburn is the one hosting the Iron

684
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 1: Bull this year. But there's just so much change with

685
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 1: the coordinators. Uh. Steve Sarkisian is back as the offensive coordinator.

686
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,439
Speaker 1: I mean, if he's so great, why did he leave

687
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 1: after the national title lost to Clemson? And then they

688
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 1: did go get a rising star in Pete Golding Uh

689
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 1: from U T s A shout out to meet me there.

690
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 1: He's a new defensive coordinator, but he's a defensive backs guy.

691
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 1: He coaches. He coaches corners and safeties, and that's not

692
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 1: where Alabama's problem is. Alabama's problem is that they were

693
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,920
Speaker 1: getting gashed on the ground in the front seven. So

694
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,919
Speaker 1: they haven't resolved that issue whatsoever. I'm not taking any

695
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 1: Alabama futures. I don't The number is overpriced. They shouldn't

696
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:22,240
Speaker 1: be at the same prices Clemson for the national title.

697
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 1: I wouldn't take them over eleven. I wouldn't take them

698
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 1: to win the SEC. At some point, the Saban regime

699
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 1: is going to come to an end mathematically. Can I

700
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 1: prove it right now? No, But I can tell you

701
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 1: that that whole story about where the f is Dan,

702
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:39,399
Speaker 1: which is what Saban said when he came in looking

703
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:42,359
Speaker 1: for Danny Knows, his offensive coordinator and couldn't find him

704
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:44,680
Speaker 1: because he'd already cleaned out his office and went down

705
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,720
Speaker 1: to Miami. Uh. They're just things in the Saban regime.

706
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 1: They're just not jelling. And now you've got all these

707
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 1: players in there that weren't recruited by these coordinators. I'm

708
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:56,960
Speaker 1: not having any part of Alabama futures. Are they still talented, yes,

709
00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 1: but I don't I see it's coming to an end.

710
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:02,279
Speaker 1: You have a column, but how I would rebut that

711
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 1: is I agree with you that there there's no value

712
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 1: in taking them futures, and I do like that Georgia

713
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:11,440
Speaker 1: to win the SEC. My problem with you know, calling

714
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 1: the album and not going to the playoffs this year

715
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:15,880
Speaker 1: is because of that schedule. Yes, they have all that turnover,

716
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 1: but it's not like they're playing you know, another legit

717
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 1: Power five team in their nonconference earlier where they can

718
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 1: suffer a loss and then suffer a loss later in

719
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:27,239
Speaker 1: the season and then all of a sudden they're out,

720
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 1: I mean with that non conference and then you know,

721
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 1: I mean maybe they trip up at Texas A and

722
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,879
Speaker 1: M on October twelve, but other than that, you don't

723
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:37,840
Speaker 1: really find any losses, you know, until late in the

724
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 1: season or maybe they are starting to jael and then

725
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 1: two of their last three games are at Mississippi State

726
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:44,320
Speaker 1: and at Alvern and then you know, potentially they have

727
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 1: c championship game. But maybe they solve a lot of

728
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 1: those issues. And I think that then not having any

729
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 1: real tough nonconference game. I think it's gonna You're gonna

730
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 1: have album right back in the conversation. Alright, now, we're

731
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:59,319
Speaker 1: getting to hold on, hold on, hold on. This is

732
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 1: the favorite podcast. It's not the Action Network Colleges podcast.

733
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:06,879
Speaker 1: It's been a while, Chad, we were we had lack

734
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:09,280
Speaker 1: it out. I'm glad I could bring you two together.

735
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 1: And normally, you know, you know, you guys know my

736
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 1: managing style. I really like to just put people in

737
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:15,320
Speaker 1: the room and then get out of the way and

738
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:18,239
Speaker 1: let them do their magic. Um. You know, I've got

739
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 1: a hands off approach. But in this particular case, Um,

740
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 1: I hear Matt Ford laughing in the background there, and

741
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:27,919
Speaker 1: I know that you're laughing in like a sinister way

742
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:30,719
Speaker 1: and not in our chat. He's funny kind of way.

743
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 1: Um forward, are you there, I'm here, Okay. Um, Well,

744
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:39,439
Speaker 1: Chad does come into every meeting he's and he said

745
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 1: he was invited in every meeting in the company. I

746
00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 1: feel like I come into every meeting and like I

747
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 1: feel like I stirred the pot a little bit. I

748
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 1: always feel like I end up leaving the meeting better

749
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 1: than when it began. Oh no, I wanted to rearly

750
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 1: agree with you, but I was saying that's not the

751
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:58,880
Speaker 1: most hands all approach going to every meeting. Chad is

752
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,720
Speaker 1: saying that he is a walking value add to every meeting.

753
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 1: I would agree with that. I'm going to put that

754
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:08,799
Speaker 1: in my own self assessment. Hey, m Colin, like, how

755
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 1: do you do this? Explain to people how you make

756
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 1: these assessments um on these college teams so quickly? Because

757
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:18,800
Speaker 1: it's not it's May now, But you were thinking about

758
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:21,400
Speaker 1: this back in March, Like what from the time the

759
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 1: season ends, what are you doing to get yourself ready?

760
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 1: Because you see these as real opportunities and real value. Yeah,

761
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 1: I mean to clarify, it was in March. It was stucky,

762
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:32,759
Speaker 1: and I said at the West Gate during the National Championship,

763
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 1: and I was finishing up some numbers and I told him,

764
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 1: I said, Georgia, that's a bad number. Let's go up

765
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:39,360
Speaker 1: and go get it. So this happens pretty fast. I

766
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 1: try to be as transparent as possible because I think

767
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 1: everybody should build their own power rating base. And here's

768
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 1: how I do it. I look at second order wind

769
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:49,800
Speaker 1: totals because that tells you who was lucky the year before.

770
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:52,759
Speaker 1: There's always regression in that. I look at net turnovers.

771
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 1: Uh those you know, those stats are widely available the

772
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 1: second the season is over. Returning production is a big deal. Now,

773
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:00,719
Speaker 1: it's not the only thing thing I'm not I mean,

774
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 1: I got kind of got. Someone says, oh, he's just

775
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:05,320
Speaker 1: looking at you know, the number of starters that returned.

776
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 1: That's not the only thing. Returning production and your skill

777
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 1: positions is important, but it's just a factor. It's not

778
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 1: the only thing that determines these these uh power rating

779
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:16,319
Speaker 1: numbers and these win totals, and then you have to

780
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 1: look at regression to the mean of your of your

781
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:21,719
Speaker 1: power rating number. I'll give you an example. A couple

782
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 1: of years ago, Notre Dame finished four and eight. They

783
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:26,759
Speaker 1: dropped something like sixteen points in their power rating. Does

784
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:28,880
Speaker 1: that mean that they should start the next season sixteen

785
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 1: points off their general power rating? The answers, no, that

786
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:34,920
Speaker 1: should be bumped back up a little bit. So really,

787
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:37,399
Speaker 1: I get into the havoc and I haven't said yet

788
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 1: on this podcast, let's get it started. In twenty nineteen,

789
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 1: I look at explosiveness, who is coming back that creates

790
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:45,680
Speaker 1: havoc on defense that it's explosive on offense and their

791
00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:48,799
Speaker 1: returning production. And that's what builds a power rating. And

792
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:50,919
Speaker 1: once you have power ratings, you can build your entire

793
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen schedule. You get win probabilities for individual games.

794
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:56,719
Speaker 1: You have twelve games on the slate, You add those

795
00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 1: win probabilities together and there you go. That's how you

796
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:00,879
Speaker 1: come up with something like I think Miami is gonna

797
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 1: win seven point nine nine games. You love explosiveness, Oh

798
00:41:06,160 --> 00:41:09,759
Speaker 1: my god in the green zone. Uh to add to

799
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:13,879
Speaker 1: column too, that there's also a you know, because that's

800
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:15,880
Speaker 1: the modeling portion of it. And I always say this

801
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 1: to people, like there's an art and a science to handycapping,

802
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:20,799
Speaker 1: so like there's always there's also a feel, and like

803
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:24,080
Speaker 1: there's a tangible benefit they'll be modeling people that would

804
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:26,720
Speaker 1: argue this to death, there's not. I would argue forever

805
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:29,800
Speaker 1: that there is value in watching these games, understanding these teams.

806
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:32,360
Speaker 1: And then that's when you make you know, just because

807
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 1: your winds comm well test, that's just because you're wind total.

808
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:39,439
Speaker 1: Your mathematical wind total adds up to seven point nine nine,

809
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:42,880
Speaker 1: But and the over unders at seven, that doesn't necessarily

810
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 1: mean you'll bet the over sound un or intuitive, but

811
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 1: you know, there's you know, there's certain spots, there's certain

812
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 1: situations that you might not like. There might be a

813
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:54,279
Speaker 1: culture thing or something you don't like about the You

814
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:56,439
Speaker 1: know that you're just adding up the probability. So there's

815
00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 1: also the feel going into the season, the off season,

816
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:02,800
Speaker 1: and during the season from watching and knowing these programs

817
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 1: as well, which is why I think it's beneficial to

818
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 1: just watch and this is what every sport. We may

819
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 1: watch as much as I possibly can. But let me

820
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 1: wrap that back into the feel of the market. But

821
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 1: there's another art to this. It's not just a model.

822
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:17,879
Speaker 1: It's not just a number. Let's take Nebraska over eight.

823
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:19,879
Speaker 1: That's the number that's currently out there on their wind toll.

824
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 1: Now I've got it at seven point two. So you

825
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 1: would ask, why, Colin, why haven't you gone to the

826
00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:26,279
Speaker 1: window and take an under eight on Nebraska's window. It's

827
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 1: because I know, at this point, at this point in

828
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:30,759
Speaker 1: the calendar year, there's three months of people that are

829
00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 1: gonna line up to buy Nebraska over just because of

830
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:34,880
Speaker 1: the name Scott Frost. But I got news for you.

831
00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 1: They lost everybody on defense and everybody that's coming into play.

832
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 1: The defense has to learn that brisky three four that

833
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 1: Eric Shenandrew runs. Uh, you know, they're they've got a

834
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:47,800
Speaker 1: tough schedule. Again, I've got them, you know, under eight easy.

835
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:50,320
Speaker 1: But I think market wise, there's gonna be money flowing

836
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:52,400
Speaker 1: in on the over on Nebraska. So maybe an eight

837
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:54,080
Speaker 1: and a half pops out there and maybe I get

838
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 1: a really great number on it. So you have to

839
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 1: be able to read the market along with having a

840
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 1: modeling number. And that's what we do. We to leap

841
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 1: with point spread to like we see point spreads open

842
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 1: up and I'll say I'll tweet out, I'll say, hey,

843
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:07,239
Speaker 1: that's four points off. But if it's not gonna go

844
00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:08,560
Speaker 1: the way that I want, then I'm gonna wait and

845
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 1: I'm gonna buy it on Friday. Yeah. Concrete example in

846
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 1: Nebraska was last year. I think that exact same thing

847
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 1: happened with Nebraska and they got up to what six

848
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 1: their win total. Yeah, you have to know which way

849
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 1: the market's gonna go. Like I mean, everybody is going

850
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 1: to be betting certain teams over and not a lot

851
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:28,279
Speaker 1: of unders though there's a lot of wind totals to

852
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 1: get bet over and if you like the under on

853
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:32,359
Speaker 1: a team, you want to wait for it to rise

854
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:34,240
Speaker 1: a little bit and then kind of swoop in August

855
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 1: and take an under. You know, it's actually different for

856
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:38,719
Speaker 1: the group of five because nobody pays attention to the

857
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 1: group of five teams. And that's where the value on

858
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 1: the over is because it's teams like you a b

859
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 1: I can tell you right now, Stuggy is probably gonna

860
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:48,839
Speaker 1: have an over on you tap this year, so uh,

861
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:52,839
Speaker 1: and I'll join them. But yeah, the group of five

862
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 1: is where the overs are. All right, Well, let's talk

863
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:57,440
Speaker 1: about that for a second. Give me your while we

864
00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 1: take it out of here. Give me your teams that

865
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 1: you are most bullish on their season win totals. There

866
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:10,320
Speaker 1: the over and the under. Okay, So the two overbets

867
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 1: that I'm looking to place right now is going to

868
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 1: be Oklahoma State. That's over six. That's a ridiculous number.

869
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:19,719
Speaker 1: I know it's juice right now, but that if it

870
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:21,480
Speaker 1: gets this, it's a play at six. It's a play

871
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 1: at six and a half. Listen, Gundy hasn't finished with

872
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:27,360
Speaker 1: less than seven wins since his first year, and what

873
00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:30,520
Speaker 1: I think two thousand five is last time he has

874
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:32,840
Speaker 1: admitted his mistakes of being lazy. He said that he

875
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:36,240
Speaker 1: got into, uh, he got kind of into trusting Roodolph

876
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 1: and Washington that they were there for so long at

877
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:40,440
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State that he trusted them in the routine in

878
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:44,279
Speaker 1: practice and he kind of laid off on micromanaging last year. Uh.

879
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:46,640
Speaker 1: It's showed in the offensive line, it showed in their

880
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 1: trench play. But this is still a team that the

881
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 1: beat O you this is I'm sorry. This is a a

882
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 1: team to beat West Virginia, a team to beat Texas

883
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 1: and came within a two point conversion of beating OU. Uh,

884
00:44:57,160 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 1: they went and got Princeton's offensive coordinator. Uh, they're going

885
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:03,320
Speaker 1: to be fantastic this year. I know they're still quarterback battle,

886
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 1: but they're gonna they're gonna clip six wins the other one.

887
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:10,239
Speaker 1: And this is probably gonna be the boldest statement of

888
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 1: the podcast. Not only do I like Utah over eight

889
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 1: and a half, I like Utah to go to the NAP.

890
00:45:15,520 --> 00:45:17,520
Speaker 1: I like you talk to go to the college football playoffs.

891
00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 1: And I know that the bold statement. That's a pretty

892
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 1: bold statement, but just hear me out on this Utah

893
00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 1: going to the the playoff thing. First off, you know, a

894
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 1: team from the Pac twelve going to the playoff. That's crazy.

895
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:31,839
Speaker 1: These guys are twenty first and returning production third on offense. Uh.

896
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 1: And it gets their quarterback Tyler Huntley back. They get

897
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:36,239
Speaker 1: the running back Zack Moss back. They were injured at

898
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 1: the end of the year. Uh. They didn't play in

899
00:45:38,200 --> 00:45:40,319
Speaker 1: that three point loss to Washington and the Pac twelve

900
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 1: championship game. They are extremely deep, extremely talented, they're multiple,

901
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 1: they are very well coached. Uh. You know, and they're

902
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:50,920
Speaker 1: going into their big game against USC that's going to

903
00:45:51,000 --> 00:45:54,040
Speaker 1: decide the South. They're coming off a game against Idaho State.

904
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:57,239
Speaker 1: As we're USC has just got this crazy schedule where

905
00:45:57,280 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 1: just every week is going to be a pothole they

906
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:01,839
Speaker 1: can fall into. And not to mention these things are

907
00:46:01,840 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 1: not going well with that program. Utah has a schedule

908
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:08,239
Speaker 1: conducive to getting to the PacTel Championship game with one

909
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:11,720
Speaker 1: loss and being able to play their way into the playoff.

910
00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 1: A ten to one bet on Utah to win the

911
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 1: Pac twelve please yes, Uh. They have not released odds

912
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:21,000
Speaker 1: on Utah to make the College Football Playoff. I'll be

913
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 1: investing in that and whether the Utah comes out around

914
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:25,960
Speaker 1: a pick when the PAC twelve South. I'll limit that

915
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 1: that I love Utah this year. Whoa, whoa stuck. I

916
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:36,960
Speaker 1: will give you thirty seconds to try to top that.

917
00:46:37,520 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 1: But you can't. Well now, well, I mean Colin is

918
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 1: fully immersed in the pool. I start all of my

919
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:44,719
Speaker 1: team to work on June one. I mean I'm right

920
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:50,439
Speaker 1: now watching tennants hockey baseball. So I'm you know, once

921
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:53,359
Speaker 1: June one, girls around you pretty we can shut off

922
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:56,760
Speaker 1: another couple of sports. But I have you know, I dabble,

923
00:46:57,320 --> 00:46:59,719
Speaker 1: uh and I was actually gonna mention Utah funny enough,

924
00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:01,840
Speaker 1: but I'm it. And you tap the miners. What are

925
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:04,960
Speaker 1: they one in twenty seven over the last three seasons

926
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:08,719
Speaker 1: or something? Um, but and we are my favorite bat

927
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:11,719
Speaker 1: last year was you kept under one and two and

928
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:14,400
Speaker 1: a half or whatever at two or whatever whatever crazy

929
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:16,319
Speaker 1: number they put out there. But I think that they

930
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 1: can win three or four games this year with their schedule.

931
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 1: You know, they bring back a lot. They have their

932
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 1: best recruiting class in the last ten years. The market

933
00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 1: is just so low. In the minutester what they've seen,

934
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:27,759
Speaker 1: you tap over. I'm going to get on the good

935
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:31,319
Speaker 1: graces of El Paso and Minor Nations this year. I

936
00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 1: got them at two point nine. I'll be right there

937
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:36,479
Speaker 1: with you. So three wins it is, Oh my god.

938
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 1: This is why I love the Colleges podcast and when

939
00:47:39,080 --> 00:47:41,440
Speaker 1: I love that you guys work at the Action Network

940
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:45,920
Speaker 1: because you have strong opinions about the U tap miners

941
00:47:46,040 --> 00:47:50,080
Speaker 1: and their season win total down to the decimal point.

942
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:53,359
Speaker 1: I feel like it's a good spot to close, and

943
00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:56,319
Speaker 1: I think it's will be back. So do you just

944
00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 1: want to take over the whole podcast? You just wanna

945
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 1: you want to do the the ad read too stuck? Now,

946
00:48:02,320 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 1: I'll let you do that. Listen, guys, great great work.

947
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:12,360
Speaker 1: Colin Wilson, Senior writer, Action Network UM official. Congratulations to

948
00:48:12,400 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 1: Colin Wilson, who had been a contributor and is now

949
00:48:16,080 --> 00:48:19,879
Speaker 1: joining Action Network full time. I couldn't be more great.

950
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:21,839
Speaker 1: I'm proud of it. I can't wait to just tear

951
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:24,640
Speaker 1: it up for the Action Network. You deserve this, man,

952
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 1: You freaking killed this. You made it impossible not to

953
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:31,120
Speaker 1: bring you on a full time because your stuff is

954
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:34,360
Speaker 1: so good. People love you in the app uh and

955
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:37,440
Speaker 1: your passion is undeniable. You willed this to happen. You

956
00:48:37,520 --> 00:48:42,319
Speaker 1: were like you know, Danny with a dragon. Well she's

957
00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:44,920
Speaker 1: only got one left, so let's clarify her. The you know,

958
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 1: the game of the runs to getting down to the end.

959
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:48,760
Speaker 1: But she's just careless, I mean she lost a dragon.

960
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 1: But yes, yes, hopefully I can be as as tenacious

961
00:48:52,600 --> 00:48:57,680
Speaker 1: as Drogne. So I think you will be all right, stuck,

962
00:48:57,719 --> 00:48:59,360
Speaker 1: you think you know. Thanks to you for coming on

963
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:04,279
Speaker 1: too and trying to steal my job. All right. This

964
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:09,160
Speaker 1: has been the Favorites from the Action Network, downloaded at Apple,

965
00:49:09,239 --> 00:49:12,799
Speaker 1: podcast at radio dot com, Slash the Action Network listen.

966
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:17,239
Speaker 1: Later this week, black Jack Fletcher will be back on

967
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:20,799
Speaker 1: the show. Until next time. I Love you,