1 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:08,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day forty three 2 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story, 3 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:17,439 Speaker 1: the US is still trying to figure out what normal 4 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 1: life looks like after a pandemic. For a clue, we 5 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 1: can look to Wuhan, China, the early center of the outbreak, 6 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 1: where tight restrictions on movement were lifted only weeks ago. 7 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Beijing bureau chief, Sharon Chen, visited Wuhan as the 8 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:40,479 Speaker 1: lockdown ended. She reports the city's residents are living in 9 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 1: a world that's far from normal. But first, here's what 10 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 1: happened today. It was the fifth week that new unemployment 11 00:00:55,760 --> 00:01:00,240 Speaker 1: claims reached astronomical levels. It brings the five week total 12 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:05,160 Speaker 1: during the pandemic to twenty six point five million. That's 13 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 1: the steepest labor market downturn since the Great Depression. The 14 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 1: numbers suggest that the US jobless rate for April will 15 00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 1: potentially reach that's double the ten peak reached in the 16 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: wake of the two thousand nine financial crisis. Any minute now, 17 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:28,279 Speaker 1: the U s House of Representatives is expected to pass 18 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 1: the four hundred and eighty four billion dollar interim coronavirus 19 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:36,399 Speaker 1: Rescue package. They met for debate leading up to the vote, 20 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: while taking extraordinary health precautions. Most members were masks and 21 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:45,559 Speaker 1: members took turns in the chamber to debate the bill. 22 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 1: It was the first time they convened as a group 23 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 1: since March. The measure will add new funds to the 24 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 1: paycheck Protection program of loans to small businesses. The President 25 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 1: of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, told EU leaders 26 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: that its gross domestic product could follow by as much 27 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: as fifteent. Lagarde set in a video conference with the 28 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:14,800 Speaker 1: twenty seven EU heads that they have done too little, 29 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:20,840 Speaker 1: too late, according to people familiar with her remarks. Finally, 30 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 1: a new antibody test can tell in fourteen minutes whether 31 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 1: someone was infected with a novel coronavirus. According to Siemens 32 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 1: Health and Years a G, the company that developed the test, 33 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 1: it is more than accurate and will be available by 34 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 1: late May. And now our main story. Millions of people 35 00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 1: in Wuhan, China, the city where the novel coronavirus first emerged, 36 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:53,920 Speaker 1: are trying to figure out what life looks like in 37 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:59,640 Speaker 1: the bustling industrial city after the worst pandemic in a century. 38 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:03,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Beijing Bureau chief Sharon Chen went to Wuhan recently 39 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: to see what it looks like to emerge from lockdown. 40 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: She found a world that still feels far from normal 41 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 1: and a population that's keenly aware of both the threat 42 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 1: of disease and the watchful eye of China's powerful surveillance state. 43 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Senior Executive editor for Economics, Stephanie Flanders, spoke to 44 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 1: Sharon for the Stephanomics podcast. Here's some of their conversation. 45 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 1: We went to Wuhan on April four, just before the 46 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 1: quarantine was lifted on April eight. The idea was to 47 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 1: go there and see, you know, how does the city 48 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 1: of more than ten million people emerged from lockdown and 49 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 1: it's the first city in the world that went through it. 50 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 1: And throughout this whole process, this virus outbreak, Wuhan has 51 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: kind of been ahead of the curve. Did have been 52 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 1: the first city to deal with it, and then now 53 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: the first city to be lockdown and then for a 54 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 1: city to try to get back to normal. Every thought 55 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 1: that going there would maybe give us some clues about 56 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 1: what kinds of things would happen when other big cities 57 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 1: try to emerge from lockdown. Yeah, so that was the 58 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 1: idea behind the trip. And now that I'm back in Beijing, 59 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:17,719 Speaker 1: I've been quarantined in my apartment for fourteen days and 60 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 1: I can't leave. You were actually and you were just saying, 61 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 1: I want to hear Himut what what Wihan? But you 62 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 1: should you have an alarm on your door. But to 63 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: prevent you from from leaving, they put an alarm on 64 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 1: my door that alerts my kind of my property management 65 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 1: building a building management whenever I opened the door, and 66 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 1: I'm only allowed to open the door to put the 67 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 1: trash outside and to pick up food that's delivered or 68 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 1: any items I have delivered. I have to report my 69 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: temperature to three different recheck groups every day, twice a day. 70 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:53,599 Speaker 1: Beijing is just on high alert. It's kind of more 71 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 1: paranoid than any other city in China. On Whan, what 72 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 1: what struck you most immediately about the experience there, because, 73 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:07,480 Speaker 1: as you say, we do look to Wuhan as an 74 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 1: extreme example of the impact of the virus, but also 75 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,839 Speaker 1: a place that was quite far ahead of everywhere else. Yeah, 76 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 1: I mean, I think my biggest takeaway is that it 77 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 1: was really kind of a two speed recovery or like 78 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: coming back to normal. So you had the resumption of 79 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:29,480 Speaker 1: work and that was really apparent and really immediate, especially 80 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:32,119 Speaker 1: because it was something that the government was pushing. So 81 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 1: the day we arrived there were there was hardly any traffic, 82 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:37,279 Speaker 1: and by the time we were leaving ten days later, 83 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 1: we were getting stuck in traffic constantly at rush hour 84 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 1: because people were going to work. You know, factories were 85 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:46,480 Speaker 1: working at full production capacity. They were working through the weekends, 86 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 1: they worked through the long holiday that we were there 87 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 1: to make up for all the last time. But in 88 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 1: terms of consumption, you know, the shopping malls were open, 89 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 1: the restaurants were open, but they were basically empty. No 90 00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 1: one was eating out. Even the few people that we 91 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 1: to in the mall said that they don't think that 92 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:04,720 Speaker 1: they would go out like they used to before just 93 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:07,120 Speaker 1: for fun um, you know, they would really only go 94 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 1: out for essential activities. People will still scared, I think, 95 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:15,719 Speaker 1: both of the virus, even though there are officially no 96 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 1: cases in Mohan. Now, um they're they're both scared of 97 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:22,719 Speaker 1: the virus. It's kind of I think a psychological hangover 98 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 1: after being told for weeks and weeks that it's very 99 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 1: dangerous outside and you can't go outside and it's dangerous 100 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 1: interact with people. But they were also scared of being 101 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 1: quarantined again because in Mohan they have this health code system, 102 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:39,039 Speaker 1: so you're either green, yellow, or red, and even going 103 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:42,720 Speaker 1: into a shopping mall where later someone else is either 104 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:45,719 Speaker 1: suspected or confirmed of having the virus will turn your 105 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:48,960 Speaker 1: code yellow and then you can get quarantined again, and 106 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 1: your housing compound can refuse to let you leave the 107 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 1: housing compound. So there's kind of like this high level 108 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 1: of paranoia about both those things, both the virus and 109 00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 1: about being locked up again. So I mean, I think 110 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 1: consumer habits and just social habits really have changed, and 111 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:08,039 Speaker 1: there was kind of this divergence between going to work 112 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: and going out for fun. Now that's fascinating, and I 113 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 1: think and we are seeing that when we're looking at 114 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 1: the sort of high frequency economist are now looking at 115 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 1: the high frequency data in Beijing and other cities, and 116 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: you can see this real there's a sort of bat 117 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 1: as you say, there's the kind of supply side and 118 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 1: the demand side. The supply side shock as we used 119 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:31,120 Speaker 1: to talk about it has gone because people are more 120 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 1: or less back to work, But anything that's to do 121 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 1: with spending and consumer activity, particularly at the weekends, is 122 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 1: just still way below where it was. And that's obviously 123 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 1: concerning for economists thinking about how steep the recovery is. 124 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:54,119 Speaker 1: When you look at Wuhan and then you read people 125 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:57,200 Speaker 1: still talking about that v shaped recovery that we turn 126 00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: everything back on again, do you think that is is 127 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 1: quite far off the map. Yeah, I mean I think 128 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 1: if you listen to you know, like US President Donald 129 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 1: Trump saying when we lift the lockdowns, everything's going to 130 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 1: go back to normal, it just seems so far removed 131 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 1: from what's happening in Buhan. You know, just because people 132 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 1: have the freedom to go outside doesn't mean that they 133 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 1: want to the idea of people sitting in a crowded 134 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 1: restaurant or going to watch a movie in a theater 135 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 1: or going to a concert. I mean, like, I don't 136 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 1: think anyone in Mohan would even consider that within the 137 00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 1: realm of possibility. Being at home for so long, I 138 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 1: think it's really changed people in the long term, Like 139 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:41,400 Speaker 1: people are just more used to um eating at home, 140 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 1: used to cooking at home, not really going out getting 141 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 1: food delivered. We also interviewed a restaurant owner. He of 142 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 1: his ten restaurants, none of them have reopened. The original 143 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 1: plan was for him to reopen three, and then when 144 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:59,199 Speaker 1: he realized that nobody's going out anyway, he decided he 145 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 1: was just going to real and one, and eventually he 146 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:06,199 Speaker 1: reopened none of them. And he said, you know, people now, 147 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 1: they don't go out for lunch on their lunch hour. 148 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 1: Everyone's bringing lunch to the office, that bringing home cooked food. 149 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 1: So all these little things that are really going to 150 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 1: impact businesses like his, especially small businesses, I think, and 151 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:20,959 Speaker 1: I think it goes to that point of the permanence 152 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:23,040 Speaker 1: of some of these costs. We know, as you said, 153 00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:26,680 Speaker 1: the manufacturers are quickly doing the orders that got put 154 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 1: on hold, and you could imagine that they might get 155 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 1: back eighty or ninety percent of what they would have had. 156 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:34,680 Speaker 1: You know, they'll grow much faster now in a classic 157 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:37,079 Speaker 1: kind of recovery where and catch up that lost ground. 158 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 1: But in the service sector and spending on things like restaurants, 159 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 1: we just we know that we're not going to be 160 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:47,199 Speaker 1: eating twice as many restaurant meals in the second half 161 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 1: of the year. But what you're telling me is that 162 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 1: we may not even be eating half the level of 163 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:55,320 Speaker 1: our normal level. That could really have an impact on 164 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 1: the pace of the recovery. Well, Sharon, so how long 165 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 1: have you got before that bell goes off your our door? 166 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:02,680 Speaker 1: When do you when do you get to see the sun? 167 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 1: She field the sunshine again. So I have seven days 168 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:10,679 Speaker 1: to go, but Beijing has just said that my district 169 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 1: is a high risk area because they discovered a cluster. 170 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:17,959 Speaker 1: A student from the US came back and tested positive 171 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 1: for the virus two days after he completed his fourteen 172 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 1: day quarantine. So there's been some rumors that they could 173 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 1: extend it to twenty one days, but so far that 174 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 1: hasn't happened. So fingers crossed that I get out in 175 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:32,680 Speaker 1: a week. Good luck, fingers crossed, And thanks so much 176 00:10:32,720 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 1: for all the reporting you're doing. Thank you. That was 177 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 1: Stephanie Flanders in conversation with Sharon Chen. For more on 178 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 1: what it will take for China and the world to 179 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:52,199 Speaker 1: return to normal, listen to the new episode of Stephanomics 180 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 1: out today, and that's it for our show. For more 181 00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 1: on the coronavirus crisis from a hundred and twenty bureaus 182 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 1: around the world, visit Bloomberg Dot com slash Coronavirus and please, 183 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:09,440 Speaker 1: if you appreciate the show, please leave us a review 184 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 1: in a rating on Apple Podcasts for Spotify, It's the 185 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 1: best way to help more listeners find our global reporting. 186 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:21,320 Speaker 1: The Prognosis Daily edition is hosted by Me Laura Carlson. 187 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:25,559 Speaker 1: The show was produced by Me Tophor foreheads Jordan Gospoure 188 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:30,720 Speaker 1: and Magnus Hendrickson. Today's main story was reported by Sharon 189 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 1: chet Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are Francesca 190 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 1: Levi and Rick Shine. Francesca Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. 191 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.