1 00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:06,880 Speaker 1: Walkrom Chillions. 2 00:00:06,880 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Webber and I'm Eric Balchuna's. 3 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: Eric. We've had a couple of guests on lately, but 4 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:16,800 Speaker 1: we have not been talking about what's happening in the markets, 5 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: which seems like we should do. 6 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, in a way, it's because nothing traumatic 7 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 2: has happened, but there's always something going on, and that's 8 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:29,319 Speaker 2: something is all time highs. Like it's almost like so 9 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 2: peaceful and nice and all time high out there, you 10 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 2: forget about it. But that's a story in itself because 11 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 2: just seems like also we're in a different place than normal. 12 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 2: Always felt like last time we were in this bull 13 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 2: market and all time highs, there was this sort of 14 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 2: quot wall of worry and it was all about how 15 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:49,440 Speaker 2: the market kind of would deal with that. Doesn't seem 16 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 2: like there's a lot of things to worry about. So 17 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:52,520 Speaker 2: there's like, oh, come on. 18 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 1: There's the threat of nuclear war. There's you know, inflation 19 00:00:57,920 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 1: is popped back up a little bit. I mean there's 20 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 1: like it's not like there isn't things. 21 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 2: To worry about, yeah, but all those things I think 22 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 2: have been compartmentalized, which brings up one of our big 23 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:09,039 Speaker 2: themes this year. Which we have athnocs on to talk about, 24 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 2: which is investors being ready for it comfortably bullish. Other 25 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:16,880 Speaker 2: sell side shops quote Taylor Swift, we quote Pink Floyd. 26 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:20,120 Speaker 2: You know it's all good. But anyway, this idea of 27 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 2: not just you're not euphoric bullish and you're not. It's 28 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 2: not a hated bull market. It's a comfortable bullishness. You 29 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 2: know I'm trying to say. But it feels right, and 30 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 2: the numbness is part of it in that I don't 31 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 2: think these things you just mentioned. They're out there, but 32 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 2: they're not as up close and present I think for 33 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 2: the investor psyche right now, I think they've written them 34 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:46,680 Speaker 2: all off. Obviously, the Fed raising rates would be a 35 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 2: big deal, but that doesn't seem like it's going to happen. 36 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 2: And I don't even think the market expects Feds the 37 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 2: rates lower. I think they're okay even if it doesn't 38 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 2: get lower. So it just seems like there's a comfort 39 00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 2: level here. That might be the story that the story 40 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:03,559 Speaker 2: or the feeling this year is and whether that obviously 41 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 2: will get disrupted at some point, but it just feels 42 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 2: pretty smooth right now. 43 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:14,080 Speaker 1: You guys at Bloomberg Intelligence also did an ETF survey. 44 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 2: We did speaking of bullishness. We have a survey that 45 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 2: first ever time we did it. We've had BBH on 46 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 2: who did their own survey. We did one. Charles Bond 47 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 2: from our data group let it completely. He deserves all 48 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 2: the credit. Great job, and we basically got results from 49 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 2: over fifty people different areas, and we'll go over some 50 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:35,160 Speaker 2: of those results. Some are what you'd expect, some surprises, 51 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 2: but a lot of bullishness towards ETF's roll. 52 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 1: And joining us on this episode Athamasio Sarah Feagas of 53 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:44,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. He's an analyst with Eric to help walk 54 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 1: us through this moment and diservice. 55 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 3: This time. 56 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 1: I tryins let the good times roll, Athanasios. 57 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 3: Welcome back, glad to be back. 58 00:02:57,320 --> 00:02:58,119 Speaker 1: The good times are rolling. 59 00:02:58,160 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 2: What's going on? 60 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's they are? You know the good thing about 61 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:04,359 Speaker 3: you You guys are talking about bushes of ETFs. I 62 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 3: we've gotten so large, right, and there's so many different 63 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 3: strategies that we can actually like you know, use them 64 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:12,080 Speaker 3: as indicators, right, sort of form market strength and market sentiment. 65 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:14,679 Speaker 3: And you know, the market hit all time highs and 66 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 3: twenty twenty one where at all time highs again, but 67 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 3: I think the dynamics are very different. And Eric had 68 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 3: mentioned that earlier about like being euphoric, like we're feeling good, 69 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 3: but we're not overly euphoric, which I think is actually 70 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:28,080 Speaker 3: a good thing, right, And this is where we came 71 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 3: up with the term like comfortably bullish. If you remember 72 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 3: in twenty one, it was all like the meme stocks. 73 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 3: It was Portnoy's saying stocks only go up, like it 74 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 3: was craziness. Right, You're not having any of that this year, 75 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:40,119 Speaker 3: even the world all time highs. I feel like we're 76 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 3: just in a good spot now. It was just Nvidia, Nvidia, Vidia, 77 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 3: and I feel like every time something happens, some company 78 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 3: bails out the cues. It's like Nvidia or Microsoft, like 79 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 3: someone is always sort of carrying the market on. 80 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 2: Does it remind you of like a basketball team where 81 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 2: like take the Sixers. I live in Philly. Sometimes in 82 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:01,760 Speaker 2: be just isn't feeling it or is injured, and MAXI 83 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 2: steps up. The Magnificent seven to me is like a 84 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 2: team and like Tesla, Navidia kind of balanced out Tesla 85 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 2: and they are real players, but they are really kind 86 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 2: of lifting this market up, although there's some people who 87 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 2: point out its actually more depth than those seven. But certainly, 88 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:20,599 Speaker 2: I know when Navidia's earnings came out, it did people 89 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 2: were saying, like the whole world they had memes of 90 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:25,719 Speaker 2: like Navidia holding up the globe. The video seems to 91 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:28,160 Speaker 2: be like the new Apple in a way in terms 92 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 2: of holding the market up, but it delivered. 93 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, every like every time if every time 94 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 3: I log in every morning with the cueser at a 95 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 3: new time like all time high. But I think it 96 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 3: kind of makes sense when you look around the world 97 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 3: or look at other investments. I think it's all about 98 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 3: like relative right, So like if the FED is gonna 99 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 3: cut for this year, like for money market funds, we 100 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:51,280 Speaker 3: already know that the best of that is probably behind us. 101 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:53,159 Speaker 3: So imagine like you already know that that's only going 102 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:54,840 Speaker 3: to go down. It's like, okay, where am I going 103 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,160 Speaker 3: to look? China's a little rough right now, you know, 104 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 3: Like performance wise, Europe is a story so that you know, 105 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 3: seems like it wants to work every year, but it doesn't. 106 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:05,120 Speaker 3: It just feels like all the roads come back to 107 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 3: us stocks. It's just still sort of the best option 108 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 3: out there. 109 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 2: And if you could, let's talk a little bit about 110 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 2: the BI ETF greed Fear Indicator, which you created with 111 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 2: Charles Bond. It's obviously up, but what goes into that? 112 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 2: What ETF data are you able to use for that? 113 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:22,840 Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah, big prop To Trials, we sort of were 114 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 3: hashing out ideas, so we look at a couple of things. 115 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 3: One is leverage long to short ETF like leverage tradings. 116 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:31,599 Speaker 3: We look at moving average stuff, so we got some 117 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 3: technical indicators. We look at short interest how much people 118 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 3: are shorting ETFs, and we sort of put that together 119 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 3: and we look at it historically to itself, and we 120 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 3: look back in twenty one it got overly bullish, right, 121 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:45,479 Speaker 3: and then the market corrected a little bit, and then 122 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:48,719 Speaker 3: this year we're very bullish, but we're not at this 123 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 3: like U four range, So I actually even think it 124 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 3: could probably go up a little bit more, Like I 125 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 3: think we have room to get even more bullish. But 126 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:58,599 Speaker 3: and when I was talking with Trials, that's how we 127 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 3: came up with the the word comfortably bullish, Like I 128 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:03,159 Speaker 3: like pink Floyd and whatnot. But we're like, how do 129 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 3: you feel, right? I'm like, that's how I feel like. 130 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 3: I feel good, not too good, but like in a 131 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:10,360 Speaker 3: good spot. Market keeps going on, people are I remember 132 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:13,040 Speaker 3: last year when the market was going up, flows weren't biting. 133 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:15,720 Speaker 3: People were still very pessimistic about the market going up. 134 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 3: I feel like this year, finally it's all aligned. The 135 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 3: market's going up, the flows are aligning. You know, sentiment 136 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 3: feels good. 137 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:24,840 Speaker 1: Can you quantify comfortably bullish? 138 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 3: Uh? Well, we attempted to, right, But I think the 139 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:32,039 Speaker 3: way we always we look at it is just relative 140 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 3: to itself. So even now we're at all time highs, 141 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 3: flows weren't as good as they were in twenty one, 142 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 3: even though we're at a higher level than we were. 143 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 3: And I feel like when you look at it at 144 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 3: that flows or leverage, trading spreads, or even what kind 145 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 3: of ets people are allocating to, you know, we are bullish, 146 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:54,839 Speaker 3: but not how we were in twenty one. So that's 147 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 3: kind of the way we try to quantify it. I 148 00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:59,360 Speaker 3: can give you an arbitrary number, say, oh, it's a four, right, 149 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 3: but I think when you compare it to itself, that's 150 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 3: how we sort of approach this sentiment indicator. 151 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:06,360 Speaker 2: And you know, it's interesting. I look at the weekly 152 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 2: flow chart every week on ETFIQ and ivvvu qs VTI 153 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 2: all at the top right comfortably bullish everybody, But there's 154 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 2: every like fourth week, someone tries to get small caps going, 155 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:20,960 Speaker 2: like you see IWM there or like bb EU Europe. 156 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 2: Someone tries to be like early on the shift or 157 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 2: the regime change, and they just get rolled over. And 158 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 2: I've seen it happen over and over, and I think 159 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 2: everybody out there knows that at some point the regime 160 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 2: will change. But how many times can you get run 161 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 2: over before you just stop trying? And I think I've 162 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 2: seen in the flows there's less and less of that 163 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:47,960 Speaker 2: those attempts. And maybe when there are no tempts at all, ever, 164 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 2: you know, we're just like weeks and weeks where nobody's trying. 165 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 2: Maybe that's when it turns, and that's when it's like 166 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 2: a bubble where even a little pin can pop it. 167 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 2: But small caps. You know, we had a not Doubt 168 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 2: that talked about this, and in this case we reference 169 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 2: mean girls droll the market to ETF investors stopped trying 170 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 2: to make small caps happen, you know, because they tried 171 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 2: over and over and over. And I talk with Gena 172 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 2: Martin Adams are macro stentagist my boss about this, and 173 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 2: she brought up a good point. A if a company 174 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 2: gets really good and they're small, they get like drafted up, 175 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 2: like all of a sudden, they're a mid or a 176 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 2: large and they're gone. So you lose them like a 177 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 2: college to the NBA, and then more companies when the 178 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 2: IPO now are going right to the large, they're already big, 179 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 2: so that the pool of hotness in the small cap 180 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:34,280 Speaker 2: area is also down. And so I think this idea 181 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 2: that it has to change. There are reasons where it 182 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 2: could be a little more secular than cyclical. 183 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 1: I'm just thinking about how different now is compared to 184 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, when the last time that there was 185 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:51,840 Speaker 1: this fever. I guess, and boy, there's a world of 186 00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:55,880 Speaker 1: difference between those two markets. How is that reflected and 187 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:58,120 Speaker 1: how is it showing up not only in the flows, 188 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:00,840 Speaker 1: but you know what sectors theos are going into. 189 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'd say the first thing that's stuck out 190 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:06,360 Speaker 3: we observed and I know this is it sounds a 191 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 3: little obvious, but more allocations towards the US. I feel 192 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 3: like in the twenty twenty one money was getting allocated 193 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 3: all over the world, like Europe was taking some flows China. 194 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:17,559 Speaker 3: This year it's just all US, and it's US from 195 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 3: other regions. There was even this issue in China. And 196 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 3: the thing is the Chinese investors were trying to buy 197 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 3: the queue so fast that they had to close the 198 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:27,960 Speaker 3: fund in China, right, So they weren't buying Chinese stocks 199 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 3: or buying US stocks. So if you actually look globally, 200 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 3: I think a big difference is everything's going even more 201 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 3: so into the US. The other thing is we have 202 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 3: higher rates, right, So now I think what the important 203 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:43,000 Speaker 3: thing was for this year is that we showed that 204 00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 3: we could live in this like five percent rate world, right. 205 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:48,280 Speaker 1: Which I would have assumed looked like a gold shower almost, 206 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 1: But here we. 207 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 3: Are, yeah, for sure. And I don't know if people 208 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 3: maybe expected it or I think they've kind of expected 209 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:54,319 Speaker 3: the market to go down, and you know, it was 210 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 3: pretty violle on twenty twenty two, but now it's like, 211 00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:59,680 Speaker 3: you know what we've we went through that we're fine, 212 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 3: we can handle it, right, and now we sort of 213 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:04,319 Speaker 3: know that the Fed's already made it clear that at 214 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 3: some point they're gonna cut right, so you know, so 215 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:11,079 Speaker 3: I think we have a lot of those uncertainties behind us. 216 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:12,880 Speaker 3: I know there's an election coming up this year and 217 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:16,199 Speaker 3: whatnot that at all No could maybe you know, derail 218 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 3: this a little bit. But I think it's just we've 219 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 3: learned to live in this higher rate environment. 220 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:25,319 Speaker 2: Yeah, it was interesting those big growthy sort of Magnificent 221 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:27,839 Speaker 2: seven companies. One thing that impressed me was they went 222 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 2: up last year and rates were up, like there were 223 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 2: supposed to be companies that didn't work in higher rate environments. 224 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 2: But then you look at some of these companies, unlike 225 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 2: maybe some of the arcstocks, these companies have a lot 226 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:41,680 Speaker 2: of cash on hand, like they can absorb a lot. 227 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 2: They're not like high growth, no profit kind of companies. 228 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 2: The other thing about the Magnificent Seven that Sam Rowe 229 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 2: pointed out on Twitter. He was talking about how if 230 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 2: you take one of them, there's actually three or four 231 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 2: even five companies in there that could be like smaller 232 00:10:57,040 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 2: mid caps or even large caps like YouTube to me, 233 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,680 Speaker 2: could be its own company, a large cap probably. I 234 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 2: mean it's taken over TV and it's just one part 235 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:08,080 Speaker 2: of Google. Right. So you go down the list and 236 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 2: you see these companies are made up of many, many companies, 237 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 2: So maybe it's the magnificent fifty honestly, and not just 238 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:16,680 Speaker 2: the seven. What do you think of that? Droll? 239 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 1: Lena conn would have it that way for sure if 240 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:24,840 Speaker 1: she got to do some due overs. And look, I 241 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:27,120 Speaker 1: mean it does speak to why the cues are the cues, 242 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 1: Like I think if you knock those companies out, like 243 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 1: they're just more que candidates. 244 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 2: Really right, And then when you look at the rest 245 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 2: of the world, and this sounds so US centric, but 246 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 2: you know, where are these companies in other countries? I 247 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 2: know sometimes people like, well there might be one or two, 248 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:44,960 Speaker 2: but we have like a dozen. You know, we have 249 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 2: many of these and it's hard to capture that. And 250 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 2: it's tough the people coming over from China and Europe, drole. 251 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 2: What I worry about in China particular is their market 252 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 2: just went down two years in a row, and they're 253 00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 2: like at the bottom, that's when you should actually buy in, 254 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 2: but they're leaving to come here to buy at the top. Yeah, 255 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 2: that's this is like has pain written all over in 256 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 2: my opinion, But I just feel like this could end 257 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 2: in tears stroll. You know that that movement usually doesn't 258 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 2: work out well and It's a shame too, because those 259 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 2: investors are you know, they're just the fomo is that bad? 260 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 2: You know, it's like they've lost their minds. 261 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 1: Well they're uncomfortably well no, well. 262 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:27,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, they want to be comfort They're coming over here 263 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 2: to have that good feeling. 264 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. I think fifty four percent of the 265 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 3: cues last year was not expected. I think that messed 266 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 3: with people's minds, right, Like every strategist was not bullish 267 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:40,080 Speaker 3: last year, right, everyone missed. Now all of a sudden, 268 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 3: everyone's bringing up their targets, like fomo is a real thing, right, 269 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 3: and it was working when a time was not supposed 270 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 3: to work, and now it is supposed to work, and 271 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:52,440 Speaker 3: you know, and I think that is keeping people coming 272 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 3: back into the equity market. 273 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 2: And I think if if someone's out there listening, it's like, 274 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:58,800 Speaker 2: what do you do? Go into more US equities? You know, 275 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 2: most advisors were probably advise you to rebalance actually, which 276 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 2: is to you know, rebalance into what has not done well. 277 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 2: And we see some of that. It's not like the 278 00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 2: places we're saying have no flows, but generally speaking, people 279 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 2: are leaning into US equities and this is opposite. Last 280 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 2: year Athan was on this time last year, and what 281 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 2: we were talking about was the US market was up, 282 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 2: but nobody's buying in there were no flows. We called 283 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:24,959 Speaker 2: the fomo drought. So comfort bullish is the new fomo drought. 284 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 2: M what will be next year? God, please help us 285 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 2: because everything's gone to Yeah, that's a little long. I've 286 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 2: the toile tightened that up on. That is just. 287 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 3: To go through some albums and come up with a 288 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:40,600 Speaker 3: good title for next year. 289 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:54,160 Speaker 1: Okay, so you guys had this Bloomberg Intelligence survey of 290 00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 1: whom and what was the what were you trying to 291 00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:57,440 Speaker 1: figure out? 292 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:01,439 Speaker 2: Yeah, look, well we got a little fomo because other 293 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 2: people were doing these surveys and Charles Bond on our team, 294 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 2: who works in data in Europe, said we should do 295 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:08,959 Speaker 2: our own and I said, yeah, I've always want to 296 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 2: do it, but I've never had the resources. Now we do, 297 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:13,559 Speaker 2: we have, you know, the teams bigger. So he basically 298 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:15,560 Speaker 2: went through all the hurdles and there are a lot 299 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 2: to get a survey downe a bi Normally, Joel, when 300 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 2: I surveyed people, I just go to Twitter to a 301 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 2: poll and I know in like eight minutes what the 302 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 2: people think. But that's not as official and I can't 303 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 2: really put that into a nice formal note. So we 304 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 2: polled about I think it was over fifty people, financial advisors, 305 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 2: individuals and institutions, and they were all over the world, 306 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,600 Speaker 2: and we basically largely in North American and Europe. But 307 00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 2: we basically asked some a bunch of questions and then 308 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:40,440 Speaker 2: we put those in the notes, and there were a 309 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 2: couple big takeaways. Do you want to go over the 310 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 2: takeaways or do you want to hone in on a 311 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 2: couple notes, Let's do the takeaway, okay? Effect me the 312 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 2: big takeaways Active is back. I've seen these surveys for 313 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 2: years and years, and one thing that was clear was 314 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:00,400 Speaker 2: that there's much more openness to Active. And I think 315 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:02,720 Speaker 2: this is because active's gotten cheaper. And I think it's 316 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 2: because twenty twenty one was rough and people sixteen the 317 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 2: forty went down and people were like a little more 318 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 2: open to Active. So I think it's good for Active. 319 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 2: Sometimes these surveys are a little bit recncy bias. You know, 320 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 2: actors had a good year, but clear that's good news 321 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:18,840 Speaker 2: for Active. That was one of our takeaways. Thematic Equity 322 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,240 Speaker 2: ranked number one in what would you like to see 323 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 2: more of discretionary active was two. But thematic and we've 324 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:28,960 Speaker 2: always been bullish on thematics because it's a great compliment 325 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:30,800 Speaker 2: to cheap beta. It's not competing with it. You can 326 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 2: just add a little theme on top of your cheap beta. 327 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:35,880 Speaker 2: You don't disturb all the serious thoughts. You can have 328 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 2: a little fun. So thematic equity did better than I 329 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 2: thought in terms of what people want to see more 330 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 2: of and what really did not do well. No surprises, ESG. 331 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 2: That's fallen down. It ranked below money market funds in 332 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 2: terms of what you want to see, and nobody wants 333 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 2: to see much from money market funds, right, that's pretty boring. 334 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 2: It was like number seventh eighth in the list, So 335 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 2: there's a shifting going on in some of the you know, 336 00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 2: sort of more non beta areas. So that would be 337 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 2: probably the biggest takeaway. But there was a couple other 338 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:04,640 Speaker 2: little ones in here that we can go over. 339 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:07,800 Speaker 1: Ethan, what jumped out at you in this survey. 340 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 3: One thing that was interesting was how investors are picking 341 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 3: ETFs and some of the criteria that they're looking at. 342 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:14,960 Speaker 3: So one thing I thought was really interesting. We had 343 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 3: asked what is the minimum asset threshold? You want before 344 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 3: you buy an ETF, and like more than half was 345 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 3: less than thirty million. Some had no minimum threshold at all. 346 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:24,400 Speaker 2: A lot. 347 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 3: So I thought that it shows a lot of progress 348 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 3: in the investor right, and that they're not just looking 349 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 3: at the big products with the big assets. They're looking 350 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 3: at a lot of interesting ideas, right, and products a 351 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 3: lot of some of the more interesting ones are small, 352 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 3: they're new, they're coming from smaller issuers. So I'd like 353 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 3: to see that the investors were looking at smaller ETFs, 354 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 3: and I think it shows that they understand the products 355 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 3: more and all they work. Right. 356 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, that was a chakra for me because over the 357 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 2: years we come up with a field implied liquidity which 358 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 2: is based on Dave Abner's formula from his book The 359 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,040 Speaker 2: ETF Handbook, and that just tells you how liquid the 360 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:01,360 Speaker 2: basket is. Because if you're out there listening and you're 361 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 2: looking at ETFs and you look at the volume, it's 362 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 2: good to have volume. That's really great. You can trade 363 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 2: those all day. But there's new ets for example, they 364 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 2: don't have a lot of volume. But if the if 365 00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 2: market makers in the market, when they see orders come 366 00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:15,919 Speaker 2: in for an ETF, they don't look at the actual ETF. 367 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 2: They look at the basket because if they're going to 368 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 2: sell you the ETF, I'm just going to give you 369 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:22,120 Speaker 2: shares of, say ARC, since it's come up a bunch 370 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 2: of times, Well I'm now short ARC. Well I'm going 371 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 2: to go and buy the basket of the of the 372 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 2: stocks because later I've got to go hand in the 373 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:32,920 Speaker 2: basket to the issuer and get the shares back. So 374 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 2: I'm flat again. So in order to sell you ARC, 375 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:37,879 Speaker 2: I've got to go get the basket of stocks. So 376 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 2: if the basket of stocks is a liquid I should 377 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 2: be able to give you a good deal, even if 378 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 2: ARC doesn't trade a lot. And that's generally why imply 379 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:48,760 Speaker 2: liquidity works most in a stock you don't have that. 380 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 2: The liquidity on the screen is all there is. But 381 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 2: with an ETF, because you can do creations of redemptions 382 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:56,960 Speaker 2: by handing in the basket for more shares of the ETF, 383 00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 2: the basket liquidity is just as usable. And so in 384 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:02,919 Speaker 2: the first book I wrote, which you know, that's how 385 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:06,399 Speaker 2: we met, you know, implied liquidity to me is the 386 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:09,680 Speaker 2: key to unlocking the toolbox and using more ETFs beyond 387 00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 2: the most popular ones you can go deep. There are 388 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 2: like a handful of ETFs that have neither high volume, 389 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 2: they have low volume and low implied liquidity. Like for example, 390 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 2: I shares Columbia local Columbia stocks. It doesn't trade a lot, 391 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,120 Speaker 2: the stocks don't trade a lot. That's a case where 392 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,040 Speaker 2: you're going to have to pay up in a big spread. 393 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:29,919 Speaker 2: But if you have one or the other, you should 394 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 2: demand tight spreads in your trading. And I think that's 395 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:35,119 Speaker 2: the takeaway here that people are getting, Okay. 396 00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 1: What else helped out you? 397 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:39,199 Speaker 3: The one about would always say, Okay, when you're on 398 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,640 Speaker 3: this selection criteria, what are some of the things you're 399 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:45,400 Speaker 3: looking at, like size, expense ratio, performance, And I think 400 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 3: the one that came up first was past performance, which 401 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:49,160 Speaker 3: is really interesting and I think. 402 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, that was weird to me because it's like, obviously 403 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 1: past performance not indicative of future performance. 404 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. And expensaraition I think was second. So I 405 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 3: don't know again if there's some regency bias because of 406 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 3: the market has been up, but I think as expensory 407 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 3: show goes down, that's probably ultimately a good thing, right. 408 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 3: It means that the market is very it's at a 409 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:11,479 Speaker 3: low point cost wise, right, So we're starting to look 410 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,439 Speaker 3: at other things besides just expense rics. We're looking at branding, 411 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 3: we're looking at performance, looking at liquidity. So that was 412 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,359 Speaker 3: really interesting that perform I don't know if I agree 413 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:22,920 Speaker 3: that Performers should be the top one, but I thought 414 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,480 Speaker 3: it was interesting that expense ratio had moved down on 415 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 3: the list. 416 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 2: Well, that's one what I jumped on for Active. I 417 00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 2: thought that was a sign that Active was getting more 418 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 2: looks at the point because you would look at past 419 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,760 Speaker 2: performance if you're picking an Active manager. But to your point, 420 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:41,919 Speaker 2: you know, when you came out with that chart that 421 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 2: showed that over half of the ETFs now DROLL are 422 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 2: in funds that are less than ten basis points. And 423 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 2: if you look at smart Beta you see the same 424 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 2: cost migration. Even ESG before it kind of went and 425 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,840 Speaker 2: the gutter had this cost migration. Everything goes through this 426 00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 2: crucible and Active just went through it. And there's three 427 00:19:59,880 --> 00:20:02,680 Speaker 2: or four issuers that are leading this low cost Active charge. 428 00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 2: So I think once expense ratio gets below a point 429 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 2: where they're not going to care if it's five to 430 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,800 Speaker 2: six bass points different, but they just give me a 431 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 2: good deal. And then after that I can just start 432 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:16,120 Speaker 2: looking at other things. So Active was the last thing 433 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:18,160 Speaker 2: to go through this, but now that it's gone through, 434 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:21,040 Speaker 2: I think to your point, expense ratios can probably gonna 435 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 2: fall down because it's gonna be given that it's cheap. 436 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 2: And I think that's what we're seeing. And one more 437 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 2: chart to riff off of the active is have you 438 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,360 Speaker 2: increased your exposure to actively manage gtfs? In the last 439 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 2: twelve months, thirty five percent said yes to equity ETFs 440 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:38,119 Speaker 2: and thirty percent to bond ETFs. Normally, bond active had 441 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,680 Speaker 2: been the main place to go active in ETFs. I 442 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 2: mean it had like probably ten to one assets for 443 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 2: a while, but equity has finally caught up. So the 444 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 2: fact that equity active beat bond active is big deal, 445 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:53,160 Speaker 2: good sign for the industry, but again it's also part 446 00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:56,919 Speaker 2: of it's a mixed blessing. It's good they want it, 447 00:20:57,520 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 2: but I think a lot of managers are going to 448 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:01,119 Speaker 2: have to go through the crew ucible of you know, 449 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 2: adjusting their fees to this new sort of lower fee era, 450 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,359 Speaker 2: but over time the flows should make up for it. 451 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 2: So I think that's what we're going to continue to 452 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 2: see how much of. 453 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: That do you think is rooted in the transparency that 454 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 1: an ETF provides, like the fact that you can actually 455 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 1: see what the product holds and the prices come down. That, 456 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:27,679 Speaker 1: to me, together is perhaps why the numbers are what 457 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: they are. 458 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:32,280 Speaker 2: Transparency I would put as maybe the third advantage, But 459 00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 2: I think it matters. I think, you know, I think 460 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 2: ARC showed this ARC put it's all its holdings out. 461 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:38,679 Speaker 2: It tells you what it trades every day. I mean, 462 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,119 Speaker 2: it's like out loud and proud. I'm like, here's what 463 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:43,480 Speaker 2: I do. And a lot of managers look at that 464 00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 2: as showing their hand or their IP, and Kathy really 465 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:49,000 Speaker 2: made all that look a little silly. And I think, 466 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,880 Speaker 2: unless you're a gigantic one hundred billion dollar fund front 467 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,359 Speaker 2: running shouldn't be too big of a fear. So what 468 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:56,920 Speaker 2: we found is the active non transparent ETFs came out 469 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:02,480 Speaker 2: and they flopped. The active transparent came out they did well, 470 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 2: But there is you can't just correlate that. The reason 471 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,280 Speaker 2: is if you look at the act of not transparent, 472 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,679 Speaker 2: they were also more expensive. My thesis on this is 473 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:12,880 Speaker 2: that if you're the kind of person who thinks your 474 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:16,560 Speaker 2: IP is so special that like your percent weight in 475 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 2: Amazon is so much, it's like so valuable. Because you're 476 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,959 Speaker 2: a genius, you're more likely to charge more, Whereas if 477 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 2: you're somebody who has a little more of a perspective, 478 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 2: you're one of like a thousand active managers and we're 479 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 2: all trying our best. Here, I'll show you what I hold, 480 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 2: You're more likely to charge a lower fee. So I 481 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 2: found that the transparency usually is linked more with people 482 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:42,600 Speaker 2: who are willing to charge less, And that's why I 483 00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:46,159 Speaker 2: think we can't totally untangle it being a transparent versus 484 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,199 Speaker 2: non but certainly I think it helps. 485 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 3: Yeah. Agree, I think people like to see it. Like 486 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 3: I think in video is a perfect case, the stock's 487 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 3: been running up. I bet you everyon would go in 488 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 3: and say, is this manager holding a via? Okay, they're 489 00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:59,439 Speaker 3: holding it, and if they're not, I feel like, like 490 00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:00,680 Speaker 3: why they not? Video? 491 00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:00,960 Speaker 1: Right? 492 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 3: So I think whether or not people want to use 493 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,639 Speaker 3: a transparency is a different question. But I think people 494 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 3: like to see it, especially when it comes like a 495 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 3: hot stock like that. 496 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 1: All right, let's close it out. I heard you might 497 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:14,919 Speaker 1: have some humor for me. 498 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:17,879 Speaker 2: Yeah, So we asked two questions at the end that 499 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,040 Speaker 2: just were just a little off, open ended, kind of 500 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 2: like creative, and so one of them was describe the 501 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 2: ETF market in two words or less you got Why 502 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 2: don't you guys guess? Can you guess? Like, just give 503 00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 2: me a word you think is in here? A lot? 504 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:35,520 Speaker 2: Or how would you describe it growing? Wow? Dude, that's 505 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:38,000 Speaker 2: like the number one answer. This is family feud. You're 506 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 2: going right back. Don't even need to hear anybody else. 507 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:44,399 Speaker 1: How fast is it growing? I guess I guess you 508 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 1: could have an adjective in front of it. 509 00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, but I mean, honestly, growth or growing was like 510 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 2: twenty percent of the answers, by far the most popular. 511 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 2: Why don't you guess? Now? 512 00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,080 Speaker 3: I mean I saw could I maybe say the one 513 00:23:59,119 --> 00:23:59,359 Speaker 3: I like? 514 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:00,760 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, oh say the one you like? 515 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:02,280 Speaker 3: It was the investor Nirvana. 516 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 2: Yeah. 517 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,679 Speaker 3: That that's a little that's very specific, and it's true, right, 518 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,920 Speaker 3: there's three thousand plus products. There's literally anything Eric mentioned 519 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,639 Speaker 3: Colombia where you want, you know, access to oil or 520 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 3: bitcoin now whatever, it's literally it's just it's paradise from 521 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:16,879 Speaker 3: an investor perspective. 522 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:18,800 Speaker 2: And if we go with like synonyms for growing or 523 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:24,639 Speaker 2: the spirit of growing, we've got booming uh, fantastic, fast, great, 524 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 2: get getting saturated, holy cow with a question mark. That 525 00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:34,560 Speaker 2: was interesting, irreversible trend just the beginning, mature and growing. 526 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:43,160 Speaker 2: Here's a couple that were interesting. Narrow, oversaturated, transparent, cheap 527 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 2: wild without alternatives. So yeah, a lot of optimism, a 528 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:50,480 Speaker 2: couple of little digs in there, like narrow. I think 529 00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 2: some people do worry it's getting too crazy and niche 530 00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:54,560 Speaker 2: and gimmick me. 531 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,760 Speaker 1: The moment you wrap bitcoin and ATF it's like okay. 532 00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:01,879 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, what happened to my street? Yeah? 533 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 1: Uh so what was the last? 534 00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,280 Speaker 2: Uh? I would say, what have they done to my son? 535 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:06,480 Speaker 3: My boy? 536 00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 2: They massacred my boy? Okay, ye'll only like on our team, 537 00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:12,639 Speaker 2: like seven out of ten people will not get that, 538 00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 2: but they should. 539 00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 3: They should. Everyone needs to watch that movie. 540 00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,680 Speaker 2: I know. There's a couple movies that you need when 541 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:22,960 Speaker 2: you enter the like work, just three or four. I'm 542 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,840 Speaker 2: will glad to listen to arras Taylor Swift albums as 543 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:26,440 Speaker 2: a trade off. 544 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:31,200 Speaker 1: Wow, Taylor Swift Down is pretty good. The Godfather is it? 545 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:31,480 Speaker 3: No? 546 00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:35,119 Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a decent trade off. Okay, all right, and 547 00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:39,240 Speaker 2: and your final moment is in okay because it leads 548 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,880 Speaker 2: to the final question in this podcast, which is what's 549 00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:45,879 Speaker 2: favorite ticker? Okay, so we got everybody's favorite ticker? Okay, okay, 550 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 2: so what do you what do you think the number 551 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,880 Speaker 2: one answer was, Remember this is across Europe too. 552 00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:54,000 Speaker 1: I was gonna say, I mean, move comes up more 553 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,120 Speaker 1: than anything else. Did move make a showing move? 554 00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 2: Had two? 555 00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:58,879 Speaker 1: Okay, that's pretty good. 556 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 2: I mean that'd be like the fifth answer, so we 557 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,520 Speaker 2: would have if it were family feud, that would register. 558 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,160 Speaker 2: But like low hack in there. Hack was in there, 559 00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,199 Speaker 2: but also a little low. You have to think a 560 00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:12,400 Speaker 2: lot of people just aren't that creative. Yeah, I mean 561 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:20,040 Speaker 2: spy yeah number one, yes, that or people were like, look, 562 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,000 Speaker 2: I just filled out your nineteen questions. I'll just get 563 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:22,600 Speaker 2: the hell out of here. 564 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's like the last one, like nineteen out of nineteen. 565 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, dude, I'm not thinking. I'm not thinking anymore for you. Okay, 566 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:36,480 Speaker 2: spy out, Robo got an answer, Weed got one l 567 00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:39,920 Speaker 2: e E L l e FP. I guess that's like 568 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:44,920 Speaker 2: the magazine li CEFS. I bet that's the person who 569 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:47,960 Speaker 2: that person might actually work there. Cow's got one c 570 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 2: O w Z cars cath jep Q got one J 571 00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 2: and K. Somebody picked jps T. Come on, I. 572 00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 3: Guess about creative tickers like ones that they like. 573 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:03,680 Speaker 2: It's his favorite ETF ticker not managed by your firm. 574 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,119 Speaker 2: There is no way somebody picked JPST. What happened is 575 00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 2: they probably that was the last one they invested in 576 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 2: or something, and again they were just like, my brain is, 577 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 2: I'm just done. 578 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,080 Speaker 3: I mean, I still think direction kind of is the 579 00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:18,160 Speaker 3: best in this. They got gush drip deposit withdrawal. Yeah, 580 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 3: they have so many. 581 00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 2: The problem is most srmal people aren't dabbling with those 582 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 2: sort of rated R products, but certainly they've got the 583 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,920 Speaker 2: best ones. My well, my Yin and Yang I think 584 00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 2: are legendary. It's a three x China inverse. 585 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:32,119 Speaker 1: Somebody put those in there. 586 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 2: No but to me like that, I would pick something 587 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:36,159 Speaker 2: like that probably, but there was no levers in here 588 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:40,639 Speaker 2: at all. And J and K got a mention mx 589 00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:43,800 Speaker 2: US power. That's pretty interesting, even though they're not. 590 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,520 Speaker 1: I think Cows is sort of like a like a 591 00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:49,360 Speaker 1: cousin of Mu. 592 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:50,680 Speaker 3: Yeah. 593 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 2: I agree. I think live Stock did well. Yeah, if 594 00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:56,640 Speaker 2: you add all the live stock, I think it might 595 00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:58,359 Speaker 2: tie Spy. So there you go. I think that's the 596 00:27:58,359 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 2: takeaway people like cows. 597 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,440 Speaker 4: Joel Anthan, thanks for joining us on Trillion, Thanks for 598 00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:10,960 Speaker 4: having me, Thanks for listening to Trillions until next time. 599 00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:14,280 Speaker 4: You can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, Bloomberg dot com, 600 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:18,280 Speaker 4: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever else you'd like to listen. 601 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,600 Speaker 4: We'd love to hear from you more on Twitter. I'm 602 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:26,640 Speaker 4: at Joel Webber Show. He's at Eric Baltuna's. This episode 603 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,720 Speaker 4: of Trillions was produced by Magnus and Rickson. 604 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:31,160 Speaker 3: Bye