WEBVTT - US Core CPI Remains Firm for Third Straight Month With 0.3% Gain

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you

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<v Speaker 1>America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and

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<v Speaker 1>tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer

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<v Speaker 1>and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the world's biggest bond market boosted bets at the

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<v Speaker 2>Fed will indeed slash rates again next month after inline

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<v Speaker 2>inflation data, shorter dated treasuries outperforming. You saw that yield

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<v Speaker 2>on to your notes dropping from the highest since July.

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<v Speaker 2>Swap traders boosted to about eighty percent, maybe even more.

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<v Speaker 2>The probability that the Fed will cut rates again on

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<v Speaker 2>December eighteenth. Bottom line, it's a different trade than it

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<v Speaker 2>was a couple of days ago.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it certainly is. That's the backdrop for Bloomberg's conversation

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<v Speaker 3>with feder Reserve at Bank of Minneapolis President Neil Cashcari

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<v Speaker 3>leading that chat Bloomberg News International Economics and Policy correspondent

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<v Speaker 3>Michael McKee, who joins us here in the Bloomberg at

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<v Speaker 3>Business Week Studio. Mike first up the CPI print today

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<v Speaker 3>in line, as Carol mentioned, with Wall Street estimates. As

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<v Speaker 3>you dug into the details, anything in there that stood out.

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<v Speaker 4>I think the fact that there were many categories that

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<v Speaker 4>did see pricing increases, and some of the ones that

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<v Speaker 4>have been problems before are problems again, like used cars

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<v Speaker 4>and housing is still not going down. It actually went

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<v Speaker 4>up in price. The one area is the two areas

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<v Speaker 4>that we did see some improvement in were food up

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<v Speaker 4>just a tenth of a percent the same as last month,

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<v Speaker 4>and gasoline, which was down. And we all know that.

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<v Speaker 4>The other thing that stood out to me was I'm

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<v Speaker 4>sure Kamala Harris wishes this report had come out before

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<v Speaker 4>the presidential election because the price of eggs went down

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<v Speaker 4>six point seven percent, and she's been criticized heavily for

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<v Speaker 4>the price of eggs.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know if that would have made a difference, Mike.

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<v Speaker 5>I don't think the election.

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<v Speaker 2>Came down to just that. But I see what you're doing. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>wait a minute, So when it comes to inflation, I

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<v Speaker 2>do feel like, you know, we're hearing some mixed messages

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<v Speaker 2>or some you know, you've a lot of stories on

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<v Speaker 2>the Bloomberg that there are people concerned about inflation reigniting,

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<v Speaker 2>and especially thinking about a Trump administration and it's pro

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<v Speaker 2>growth policies.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, there's two things to watch. One is that what

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<v Speaker 4>you're talking about there with the Trump administration and the

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<v Speaker 4>tariffs and tax policies. Saint Louis FED President Alberto Muslim

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<v Speaker 4>was just asked about those and he said, I can't

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<v Speaker 4>comment on anything that the new administration is going to do.

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<v Speaker 4>But if you look at a textbook, it will tell

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<v Speaker 4>you that tariffs raise prices and can create inflation. And

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<v Speaker 4>Neil cashcarri had roughly the same views today. So the

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<v Speaker 4>FED is going to be watching that. But the thing

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<v Speaker 4>that has really got for the moment Wall Street's attention

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<v Speaker 4>and some economist's attention is we've been making progress on inflation,

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<v Speaker 4>but are we going to be stuck where we are?

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<v Speaker 4>With the headline inflation at about two point four percent,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, not two percent, and certainly core inflation well

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<v Speaker 4>above that right now on a CPI basis three point

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<v Speaker 4>three percent. Now, those numbers are lower for the PCEE

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<v Speaker 4>that the Fed uses for its target, but it's still

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<v Speaker 4>a question of have we stalled out and would that

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<v Speaker 4>keep the Fed from cutting rates further because they need

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<v Speaker 4>to keep the pressure on to keep pushing inflation lower.

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<v Speaker 3>Hey, we're going to talk about your conversation with the

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<v Speaker 3>ol Kashkari a little more in just a few minutes,

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<v Speaker 3>but I want you to weigh in on this Department

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<v Speaker 3>of Government Efficiency that's getting a lot of attention right now.

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<v Speaker 3>Elon Musk Vivek Ramaswami are going to be co heads

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<v Speaker 3>of this department. Must coming out on the X platform

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<v Speaker 3>saying he wants this like running counter of how your

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<v Speaker 3>tax dollars are wasted. Although previous presidencies and previous administrations

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<v Speaker 3>haven't called this doge, this has been.

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<v Speaker 4>Those points didn't exist, they didn't exist earlier.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is my suspect.

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<v Speaker 4>I suspect this acronym comes from maybe a commercial point

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<v Speaker 4>of view on Elon Musk's side, but this is it

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<v Speaker 4>is definitely not new. You go back to Theodore Roosevelt

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<v Speaker 4>had a commission proposing new authority, followed by William Howard Taft,

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<v Speaker 4>who also had a Commission on Government Efficiency that actually

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<v Speaker 4>proposed and was enacted the first presidential budget. Presidents didn't

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<v Speaker 4>submit budgets before, and so presidents were kind of in

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<v Speaker 4>the driver's seat until the nineteen seventy four Budget Act

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<v Speaker 4>created Congress's responsibility to pass the budget, which they never do.

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<v Speaker 4>So you know, you can put that on the list.

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<v Speaker 4>But you go all the way up through basically the

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<v Speaker 4>George H. W. Bush administration, and literally Dwight Eisenhower had one,

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<v Speaker 4>Franklin Roosevelt had two, while he had one and a

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<v Speaker 4>half because Harry Truman took over the other the other half.

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<v Speaker 4>And there was a commission under Hoover, there was commission

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<v Speaker 4>under Coolidge. There were these commissions just get appointed by

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<v Speaker 4>presidents and they all promise the same thing. We're going

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<v Speaker 4>to make government work better for the American people. We're

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<v Speaker 4>going to cut regulations, we're going to streamline activity. And

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<v Speaker 4>they all come up with, you know, several hundred ideas

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<v Speaker 4>and many of them get adopted, and yet here we

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<v Speaker 4>are again. So you wonder how much success they can

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<v Speaker 4>actually have.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I guess so, right, Like it's I mean, it's

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<v Speaker 2>a huge task. I think a lot of people talk

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<v Speaker 2>about though inefficiencies and government.

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<v Speaker 3>So you do one, but it's it's not just getting

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<v Speaker 3>rid of you know, these so called bureaucrats. It's not

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<v Speaker 3>just firing people because that's actually very small portion.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, that's that's a different effort too on the part

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<v Speaker 4>of the Trump administration. He wants to be able to

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<v Speaker 4>fire government officials who aren't loyal to him, and so

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<v Speaker 4>that's this whole schedule F issue that's going to come up,

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<v Speaker 4>where he tries to move these people from protected civil

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<v Speaker 4>service jobs into fire at will jobs.

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<v Speaker 2>But you do wonder what programs ultimately get cut. And

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<v Speaker 2>that's the thing, whether it's Medicare, whether Social Security.

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<v Speaker 4>It's a recent barackobus.

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<v Speaker 6>I think voters actually vot tried.

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<v Speaker 4>To remake the Commerce Department and separate out some things

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<v Speaker 4>from there, and Congress said no.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, so TBD right, wait and see and see

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<v Speaker 2>what happens here. Let's go back to Neil Kushcari, present

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<v Speaker 2>of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. You did talk

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<v Speaker 2>to him earlier. Let's just share with everybody some of

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<v Speaker 2>the information that came out of the interview that Mike

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<v Speaker 2>did with the surveillance team earlier.

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<v Speaker 1>Today.

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<v Speaker 7>I'm not seeing a lot of upside risks yet, we

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<v Speaker 7>don't know what's going to get enacted. I'm not seeing

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<v Speaker 7>a lot of upside risk that inflation is going to

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<v Speaker 7>take off from here. The bigger risk that i'd be

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<v Speaker 7>concerned about in the inflation front, is just if we're

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<v Speaker 7>landing at around the two and a half percent level

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<v Speaker 7>instead of back down to two percent level. I think

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<v Speaker 7>that those risks existed before the election, and I think

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<v Speaker 7>that there continues to be uncertainty now and we need

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<v Speaker 7>to just be take our time, let the data come

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<v Speaker 7>to us, and let that guide us.

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<v Speaker 6>All right.

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<v Speaker 2>So Neil Kushkari speaking with Mike and the surveillance team

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<v Speaker 2>earlier this morning on radio and TV. So there is

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<v Speaker 2>more data before the next FED meeting, right, So a

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<v Speaker 2>rate move not a guarantee, despite what traders are saying,

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<v Speaker 2>we know this can bounce around a little bit.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I wouldn't put a lot of stock in what

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<v Speaker 4>you're seeing in the futures markets right now, because we

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<v Speaker 4>do get a lot of data. We get another CPI report,

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<v Speaker 4>we get a PCE inflation report, we get a couple

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<v Speaker 4>of retail sales reports, and we get the jobs report

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<v Speaker 4>for the month of November, and all those things will

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<v Speaker 4>weigh on the administration. But you see Kashkari saying what

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<v Speaker 4>we were just talking.

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<v Speaker 1>About, that.

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<v Speaker 4>His worry is that we get stuck, and that might

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<v Speaker 4>call for the FED to stay in one place. Mussalam,

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<v Speaker 4>who was mentioned was just speaking said exactly the same thing.

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<v Speaker 4>Gradual cuts if inflation keeps falling, is the way he

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<v Speaker 4>put it. And Jeffrey Schmid from Kansas City also saying,

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<v Speaker 4>there's uncertainty about how our rates should fall because there's

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<v Speaker 4>uncertainty about where inflation is going. And I think you're

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<v Speaker 4>going to hear this pretty much from every FED official

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<v Speaker 4>this over the next couple of weeks. We don't know,

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<v Speaker 4>but don't count on it one way or another. Don't

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<v Speaker 4>rule it out, but don't count.

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<v Speaker 2>On us the way it goes. All Right, Michael McKee,

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<v Speaker 2>thank you so much. International Economics and Policy courseponding here

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<v Speaker 2>at Bloomberg News. Catch his full conversation with Neil Kashgari

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<v Speaker 2>check it out on the Bloomberg All right, everybody, so,

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<v Speaker 2>from the economy and FED policy to those who will

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<v Speaker 2>be helping to shape some of the new policy initiatives

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<v Speaker 2>in the Trump administration, that's exactly where we go right now.

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<v Speaker 3>This as the President elect continues to name names for

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<v Speaker 3>top cabinet posts and other advisory roles, and as mister

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<v Speaker 3>Trump goes to Washington meeting today with President Biden and

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<v Speaker 3>top members of the GOP back with our Washington around.

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg News political reporter Tyler Kendall live for us at

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<v Speaker 3>the White House. Tyler, President Biden and President elect Trump

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<v Speaker 3>meeting earlier today at the White House. That meeting wrapping up.

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<v Speaker 3>What do we know about that? What they talked about,

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<v Speaker 3>how it went down?

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<v Speaker 8>Yeah, I hate him.

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<v Speaker 9>So.

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<v Speaker 8>White House Press Secretary kree Jiane Pierre coming out just

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<v Speaker 8>moments ago calling this meeting substantive, saying that there was

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<v Speaker 8>this exchange of ideas and that they hit on national security,

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<v Speaker 8>domestic policies, as well as a to do list for

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<v Speaker 8>Congers in the coming months, including averting a government shutdown

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<v Speaker 8>when funding runs out on December twentieth, as well as

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<v Speaker 8>passing some more supplemental disaster relief funding for Americans. But

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<v Speaker 8>the Press secretary also honed in on this idea that

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<v Speaker 8>the meeting was largely symbolic, right it was to ensure

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<v Speaker 8>this peaceful transfer of power. Important to point out that

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<v Speaker 8>four years ago, then President Trump did not extend the

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<v Speaker 8>same tradition to then President elect Biden. However, the two

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<v Speaker 8>did appear cordial today and brief remarks off the top,

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<v Speaker 8>both committing to making this transition as smooth as possible.

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<v Speaker 8>I'd also quickly add that as we are getting these

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<v Speaker 8>headlines from the White House Press briefing, it does appear

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<v Speaker 8>that the two did speak about Ukraine and supplemental assistance

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<v Speaker 8>to Ukraine. This confirmed some of our earlier speculations as

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<v Speaker 8>we were looking at clues on what the two could

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<v Speaker 8>be talking about, because as we look at what President

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<v Speaker 8>Biden is pushing for in these final months of his administration,

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<v Speaker 8>we know that his National Security advisor, Jake Sullivan has

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<v Speaker 8>said that they will push the Trump transition team to

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<v Speaker 8>make sure that that security assistance for Ukraine plays out.

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<v Speaker 8>But of course he has now Vice President elect jd Vance,

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<v Speaker 8>one of the staunchest opponents of Ukraine aid, in his

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<v Speaker 8>oval office. So that's one of the storylines that we're

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<v Speaker 8>going to be covering closely.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I'm glad Tyler brought up the idea of what

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<v Speaker 3>happened four years ago very different at the White House,

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<v Speaker 3>extremely different. I mean, think about where we were just

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<v Speaker 3>a week after the election four years ago that you

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<v Speaker 3>actually never met at the White House four years ago Obama.

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<v Speaker 3>President Obama did extend that same courtesy to then President

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<v Speaker 3>elect Trump eight years ago and he visited the White House.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, right, like, so it wasn't kind of business as

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<v Speaker 2>usual certainly last time around. Hey, One thing we also

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<v Speaker 2>want to ask you, Tyler, is Republicans, for the first

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<v Speaker 2>time in eighteen years elected someone other than Mitch McConnell

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<v Speaker 2>to lead them today. That person is South Dakota Senator

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<v Speaker 2>John Thune. Tell us a little bit of us about

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<v Speaker 2>those developments coming out of DC as well.

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<v Speaker 8>Yeah, definitely, Carol, So not necessarily a surprise. Senator John

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<v Speaker 8>Thune one of the top contenders for this race against

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<v Speaker 8>another John, Senator John Cornyn, a Republican from Texas. Also

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<v Speaker 8>Senator Rick Scott, a Republican from Florida, who appeared to

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<v Speaker 8>be backed by some of the more conservative MAGA Republicans

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<v Speaker 8>for that spot. Thune ultimately ended up winning in a

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<v Speaker 8>second round ballot. He's been the number two in the Senate,

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<v Speaker 8>a staunch ally of Senator Mitch McConnell, who, as you mentioned,

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<v Speaker 8>is ending a historic eighteen run as the party's leadership,

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<v Speaker 8>but he is going to be absolutely critical. In remarks

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<v Speaker 8>after winning, he said that he will work with now

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<v Speaker 8>President elect Donald Trump because, as you both know, working

0:11:30.720 --> 0:11:33.079
<v Speaker 8>with the Senate is going to be so critical for

0:11:33.160 --> 0:11:35.560
<v Speaker 8>this incoming president, both for his agenda but also for

0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:38.559
<v Speaker 8>some of his cabinet confirmation. There are two areas I'm

0:11:38.600 --> 0:11:40.880
<v Speaker 8>watching for when it comes to Senator Thune. One is

0:11:40.920 --> 0:11:45.480
<v Speaker 8>his position on tariffs. He's previously criticized Trump's proposed tariff

0:11:45.480 --> 0:11:49.680
<v Speaker 8>across the board policy, warning about inflationary effects. And the

0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:51.800
<v Speaker 8>second is again to bring it back to this idea

0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:54.720
<v Speaker 8>of Ukraine aid, considering this was a particular area of

0:11:54.760 --> 0:11:57.840
<v Speaker 8>tension with McConnell and some of his more conservative members

0:11:57.880 --> 0:11:59.480
<v Speaker 8>of the party. So those are two of the areas

0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:01.560
<v Speaker 8>I'm watching to see how they'll shake out as his

0:12:01.640 --> 0:12:02.240
<v Speaker 8>term begins.

0:12:02.640 --> 0:12:05.400
<v Speaker 3>The President elect didn't really come out and endorse anybody

0:12:05.920 --> 0:12:09.520
<v Speaker 3>for that leadership position in the Senate Tyler, but Elon

0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:11.559
<v Speaker 3>Musk certainly did, and there were a lot of Trump

0:12:11.600 --> 0:12:14.400
<v Speaker 3>allies who were saying Rick Scott is the person to choose.

0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:18.640
<v Speaker 3>How should we look at the fact that Scott didn't

0:12:18.640 --> 0:12:21.000
<v Speaker 3>get picked as sort of a rebuke of, or at

0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:23.719
<v Speaker 3>least some resistance to what Trump wants in the new

0:12:24.160 --> 0:12:25.560
<v Speaker 3>in the new Senate.

0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:29.400
<v Speaker 8>Right, well, I would focus on Senator Thune's track record

0:12:29.480 --> 0:12:32.520
<v Speaker 8>in the Senate. He has won the admiration and respect

0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:35.079
<v Speaker 8>for many of his colleagues, particularly since he has served

0:12:35.120 --> 0:12:38.760
<v Speaker 8>as this number two to McConnell for so long, and

0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:41.720
<v Speaker 8>he had been campaigning for this early and often. Meanwhile,

0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:44.520
<v Speaker 8>Senator Rick Scott hadn't launched this bit. So we knew,

0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:46.560
<v Speaker 8>you know, for many months, that Fune was going to

0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:48.760
<v Speaker 8>be vying for this position. But Rick Scott, for example,

0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:51.720
<v Speaker 8>was in a tight Senate race down in Florida and

0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:54.040
<v Speaker 8>then kind of launched this sort of bid. It's going

0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:57.120
<v Speaker 8>to be absolutely critical for the Trump administration to try

0:12:57.160 --> 0:12:59.959
<v Speaker 8>to keep a coalition together. We had Congressman Brendan Boyle

0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:03.719
<v Speaker 8>on a Balance of Power yesterday. He's a Democrat from Pennsylvania.

0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:07.719
<v Speaker 8>We asked him about the future of governing with this

0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:10.560
<v Speaker 8>incoming White House. He said that he's watching for if

0:13:10.600 --> 0:13:13.520
<v Speaker 8>the Republicans can keep their conference in order since the

0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:16.760
<v Speaker 8>most recent iteration recent years have showed us that infighting

0:13:16.800 --> 0:13:20.640
<v Speaker 8>in the Republican Party has really hurt getting Republican legislation through.

0:13:20.640 --> 0:13:22.959
<v Speaker 8>I would just quickly add that this morning, when Trump

0:13:22.960 --> 0:13:25.079
<v Speaker 8>did go to the Hill, did appear that he backed

0:13:25.120 --> 0:13:27.760
<v Speaker 8>House Speaker Mike Johnson. That's going to be another critical

0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:31.240
<v Speaker 8>ally for getting Republican legislation and agenda items over the

0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:32.240
<v Speaker 8>finish line.

0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:35.040
<v Speaker 2>You know. And then of course there is Elan and Vivek,

0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:36.640
<v Speaker 2>which was I feel like when we read in this

0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:39.599
<v Speaker 2>morning Tyler, that was the story that was kind of

0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:43.520
<v Speaker 2>top of mind in terms of president like Trump's appointments

0:13:43.720 --> 0:13:48.600
<v Speaker 2>or you know, additional Advisory Council, if you will. The

0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:51.440
<v Speaker 2>President does seem to be moving, though, very fast and

0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:54.360
<v Speaker 2>furious when it comes to these appointments in these nominees.

0:13:56.280 --> 0:14:01.439
<v Speaker 8>Yep, definitely, and particularly on this Department of Government efficiency.

0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:03.440
<v Speaker 8>I would just say quickly, there are two big outstanding

0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:05.840
<v Speaker 8>questions here right One, how is this going to work

0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:09.160
<v Speaker 8>in practice? Trump has said that it will be outside

0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:11.000
<v Speaker 8>of the government, So would that be some sort of

0:14:11.040 --> 0:14:13.000
<v Speaker 8>a panel that works with the OMB, the Office of

0:14:13.040 --> 0:14:16.319
<v Speaker 8>Management and Budget to give its recommendations? And then second,

0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:17.960
<v Speaker 8>how is it going to do its work? You were

0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:22.240
<v Speaker 8>speaking about this earlier with Mike McKee. The federal government

0:14:22.000 --> 0:14:26.200
<v Speaker 8>spent six point seventy five trillion dollars last fiscal year.

0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:28.760
<v Speaker 8>Musk came out in that Madison Square Garden speech just

0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:30.560
<v Speaker 8>ahead of the election saying that he wants to cut

0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:33.800
<v Speaker 8>two trillion dollars, But the vast majority of government spending

0:14:33.880 --> 0:14:38.000
<v Speaker 8>is healthcare, social security, defense, and veterans benefits. So there

0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:42.040
<v Speaker 8>is this concern that some of those more popular but

0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:46.040
<v Speaker 8>also politically fraud initiatives like social security, Medicare, and medicaid

0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:49.840
<v Speaker 8>could be at risk. But also, as you mentioned, Musk

0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:52.480
<v Speaker 8>has pledged to make this a more transparent process.

0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:54.720
<v Speaker 2>I do have one last question thirty seconds, you know,

0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:57.480
<v Speaker 2>going back to what Tim mentioned about John Thune. I mean,

0:14:57.520 --> 0:14:59.720
<v Speaker 2>it does look like he is willing to go to

0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:02.520
<v Speaker 2>back with Donald Trump. Is he there to carry out

0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:05.360
<v Speaker 2>the president elex mandate or is he willing to kind

0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:07.560
<v Speaker 2>of go to toe to toe with him? Just quickly?

0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:10.320
<v Speaker 8>Right, right, So in his remarks afterwards, he did say

0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:12.160
<v Speaker 8>that he was willing to work with him. I think

0:15:12.160 --> 0:15:16.160
<v Speaker 8>you're referencing of prior rift after twenty twenty one, after

0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:19.960
<v Speaker 8>January sixth, and making sure that that election was certified

0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:23.000
<v Speaker 8>in the way that it should have been. But John

0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:24.440
<v Speaker 8>Thune has said that he will be there for the

0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:28.080
<v Speaker 8>rank and file, even adding some of Donald Trump's priorities

0:15:28.080 --> 0:15:31.280
<v Speaker 8>in his speech afterwards, including border funding and immigration.

0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:34.200
<v Speaker 2>All right, good stuff, Hey, listen, Tyler, thank you so much.

0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:36.800
<v Speaker 2>In and around DC, Tyler Kendall, she is Bloomberg News

0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:39.760
<v Speaker 2>political reporter, joining us there from the White House.

0:15:40.800 --> 0:15:44.320
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:15:44.360 --> 0:15:47.600
<v Speaker 1>Live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen

0:15:47.640 --> 0:15:49.800
<v Speaker 1>on Apple car Play and then brought auto with a

0:15:49.800 --> 0:15:52.840
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0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:56.520
<v Speaker 2>All right, folks are staying with news out of DC

0:15:56.680 --> 0:15:59.000
<v Speaker 2>in the days after the election. Donald Trump and Elon Musk, Well,

0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:02.480
<v Speaker 2>they seem to be riding the world's most intense contact. Hi,

0:16:02.640 --> 0:16:06.440
<v Speaker 2>so writes our own Max Chaffkin. Musk is effectively camped

0:16:06.440 --> 0:16:08.760
<v Speaker 2>out with Trump's inner circle at mar Lago. He shows

0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:12.080
<v Speaker 2>up in family photos, He joins Trump's calls with world leaders.

0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:14.280
<v Speaker 2>Perhaps that's what you get when you spend over one

0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:16.480
<v Speaker 2>hundred million dollars one hundred and thirty two million at

0:16:16.560 --> 0:16:20.000
<v Speaker 2>least into the President Alex campaign. So let's get to it.

0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:22.240
<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Big Takes story, deemed by our

0:16:22.360 --> 0:16:25.320
<v Speaker 2>editors as a must read story. It is reported out

0:16:25.360 --> 0:16:28.600
<v Speaker 2>by Bloomberg's Max Chaffkin and Dana Hall. Max is Bloomberg

0:16:28.640 --> 0:16:32.560
<v Speaker 2>businesswee correspondent contributor to the Elon Inc. Podcast. Max is

0:16:32.560 --> 0:16:35.560
<v Speaker 2>also author of the contrarian Peter Teel and Silicon's Valley

0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:41.280
<v Speaker 2>Silicon Valley's Pursuit of Power. Max joining us here in studio. Yeah,

0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:43.640
<v Speaker 2>I mean we've all been asking kind of what is

0:16:43.720 --> 0:16:47.480
<v Speaker 2>Elon going to do in this job? What can he

0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:50.000
<v Speaker 2>do and what does it mean kind of as being

0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:51.640
<v Speaker 2>part of this Trump inner circle.

0:16:51.920 --> 0:16:55.960
<v Speaker 6>Well, I mean, you know, last night Trump announced something

0:16:55.960 --> 0:16:58.760
<v Speaker 6>that he had teased repeatedly on a campaign trail, something

0:16:58.800 --> 0:17:01.400
<v Speaker 6>that must get talked about, This idea that Musk would

0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:05.440
<v Speaker 6>be an advisor in the streamlining of government. And there's

0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:07.920
<v Speaker 6>even a catching name for this. This is the Department

0:17:07.960 --> 0:17:11.480
<v Speaker 6>of Government Efficiency. It's not a department in the in

0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:14.400
<v Speaker 6>the sort of normal sense, and and it's also unclear

0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:17.160
<v Speaker 6>like how exactly how efficient they're going to be When

0:17:17.200 --> 0:17:20.960
<v Speaker 6>Elon Musk has a co chair of Vek Ramaswami, that's say,

0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:21.560
<v Speaker 6>do you know.

0:17:21.520 --> 0:17:23.440
<v Speaker 3>What Tim's been saying, Hey, I've been saying that it's

0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:24.760
<v Speaker 3>like it's supposed to be a fishing Why are there

0:17:24.760 --> 0:17:25.240
<v Speaker 3>two of them?

0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:25.480
<v Speaker 8>All?

0:17:25.560 --> 0:17:25.679
<v Speaker 9>Right?

0:17:25.760 --> 0:17:27.639
<v Speaker 6>This is and this is a joke that that that

0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:30.840
<v Speaker 6>Democrats have pointed out and and critics are gonna are

0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:33.760
<v Speaker 6>gonna seize on And I think that the challenge here

0:17:33.960 --> 0:17:37.160
<v Speaker 6>is that many of the things that Elon Musk has

0:17:37.200 --> 0:17:42.080
<v Speaker 6>talked about wanting to do, cutting two trillion dollars from

0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:45.160
<v Speaker 6>UH from the federal budget, or even if you start

0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:48.399
<v Speaker 6>talking about some of these very specific things that he

0:17:48.520 --> 0:17:52.040
<v Speaker 6>personally thinks is kind of dumb or useless, all of

0:17:52.040 --> 0:17:54.160
<v Speaker 6>that's going to be politically difficult. When you're talking about

0:17:54.200 --> 0:17:59.719
<v Speaker 6>gigantic cuts UH two trillion dollars, that's going to mean Congress,

0:17:59.760 --> 0:18:04.000
<v Speaker 6>it's going to mean hard choices about important federal programs

0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:06.840
<v Speaker 6>like Social Security that lots and lots of Republicans. You know,

0:18:06.880 --> 0:18:08.680
<v Speaker 6>that majority in the House is going to be very

0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:09.439
<v Speaker 6>very narrow.

0:18:09.680 --> 0:18:14.159
<v Speaker 2>The midterm is at the midterms.

0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:16.360
<v Speaker 6>And so so again that's gonna be hard. But when

0:18:16.359 --> 0:18:19.160
<v Speaker 6>you even talk about the the sort of smaller things

0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:22.480
<v Speaker 6>like you know, some defense thing, you know, a lot

0:18:22.480 --> 0:18:24.359
<v Speaker 6>of this stuff is politically charged.

0:18:24.400 --> 0:18:24.520
<v Speaker 9>Right.

0:18:24.560 --> 0:18:27.680
<v Speaker 6>You have senators, Congress people in various states who care

0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:30.600
<v Speaker 6>about the jobs in those states. And Trump is going

0:18:30.640 --> 0:18:33.200
<v Speaker 6>to need to govern and and he's going to need

0:18:33.440 --> 0:18:35.920
<v Speaker 6>Republicans in the House and Senate to do that. Even

0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:40.119
<v Speaker 6>though Republicans control those those branches. But what and you know,

0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:43.760
<v Speaker 6>seeing the election of selection of John thune Is as

0:18:43.800 --> 0:18:45.800
<v Speaker 6>Speaker again, that's kind of a bit of a rebuke

0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:48.960
<v Speaker 6>to Elon and kind of the hard right part of

0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:52.200
<v Speaker 6>this coalition. They had wanted Rick Scott. So there's gonna

0:18:52.200 --> 0:18:53.959
<v Speaker 6>be a lot of challenges here. Of course, there are

0:18:54.000 --> 0:18:55.440
<v Speaker 6>ways that Elon Musk can get paid.

0:18:55.560 --> 0:18:59.199
<v Speaker 3>Even so one thing we should notice, Elon actually accompanied

0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:04.600
<v Speaker 3>the President elect to Washington this morning. He was with

0:19:04.720 --> 0:19:07.119
<v Speaker 3>lawmakers earlier too. They gave him a standing ovation in

0:19:07.160 --> 0:19:09.840
<v Speaker 3>addition to giving the President elect a standing ovation, so

0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:12.200
<v Speaker 3>certainly gives an idea how he's seen in the Republican

0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:13.000
<v Speaker 3>Party right now.

0:19:13.400 --> 0:19:13.720
<v Speaker 1>Max.

0:19:14.200 --> 0:19:17.160
<v Speaker 3>The China part of Elon Musk's story I keep coming

0:19:17.200 --> 0:19:21.240
<v Speaker 3>back to because he's got this very close relationship that

0:19:21.560 --> 0:19:23.359
<v Speaker 3>I wonder if it could be, in the words of

0:19:23.359 --> 0:19:27.200
<v Speaker 3>like Jeff Bezos, a complexifier when it comes to Elon

0:19:27.320 --> 0:19:29.480
<v Speaker 3>Musk's relationship with Donald Trump. Because he wants to do

0:19:29.520 --> 0:19:31.679
<v Speaker 3>business in China, and he wants to do business easily,

0:19:31.680 --> 0:19:32.640
<v Speaker 3>and Jia, it's not just that.

0:19:32.600 --> 0:19:34.480
<v Speaker 6>He wants to do business in China, he really needs

0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:37.520
<v Speaker 6>to do business in China. Tesla unless there is a

0:19:37.680 --> 0:19:42.200
<v Speaker 6>dramatic change in strategy. Tesla needs it's China business. There's

0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:46.800
<v Speaker 6>a massive factory, it's the world's largest market for electric vehicles.

0:19:46.960 --> 0:19:49.880
<v Speaker 6>Tesla is trying really hard to compete there, and Elon

0:19:49.920 --> 0:19:51.760
<v Speaker 6>must have made that a big part of his strategy. Now,

0:19:51.920 --> 0:19:55.159
<v Speaker 6>I think two things are possible. One is, if you know,

0:19:55.320 --> 0:19:58.439
<v Speaker 6>tensions between the US and China were to heat up further,

0:19:58.920 --> 0:20:01.800
<v Speaker 6>you know, there are are ways that Elon Musk could

0:20:01.960 --> 0:20:05.600
<v Speaker 6>deemphasize his reliance on China. The biggest one would be,

0:20:05.920 --> 0:20:08.679
<v Speaker 6>you know, focusing more on robotaxis, which he's starting to do.

0:20:09.000 --> 0:20:12.400
<v Speaker 6>The other thing is, you know, Donald Trump ran as

0:20:12.480 --> 0:20:16.800
<v Speaker 6>a peacemaker, a negotiator. Yes he wants to, Yes he's gonna,

0:20:16.960 --> 0:20:20.920
<v Speaker 6>you know, put tariffs, he says, but remember the last time,

0:20:21.160 --> 0:20:24.240
<v Speaker 6>lots of companies got carve outs, were able to negotiate

0:20:24.680 --> 0:20:27.480
<v Speaker 6>their own their own you know, basically ways to to

0:20:27.560 --> 0:20:30.240
<v Speaker 6>avoid paying those tariffs. So you could imagine Elon Musk

0:20:30.280 --> 0:20:33.240
<v Speaker 6>trying to find, you know, get some exceptions carved out

0:20:33.280 --> 0:20:37.000
<v Speaker 6>for important industrial companies such as you know, Tesla Motors,

0:20:37.000 --> 0:20:39.400
<v Speaker 6>the company that he, uh, you know, owns a huge

0:20:39.440 --> 0:20:42.800
<v Speaker 6>stake in uh. And the other thing is like, compared

0:20:42.840 --> 0:20:47.080
<v Speaker 6>to Joe Biden, I think Trump is arguably not as

0:20:47.400 --> 0:20:50.280
<v Speaker 6>despite the fact that the rhetoric is very hawkish. Biden

0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:53.280
<v Speaker 6>was also quite hawkish on China. So I'm not sure

0:20:53.680 --> 0:20:57.879
<v Speaker 6>that this represents such a huge complexifier. But though it

0:20:57.960 --> 0:21:00.880
<v Speaker 6>is certainly gonna be, you know it challenge, And it's

0:21:00.920 --> 0:21:04.200
<v Speaker 6>also of course an opportunity for political opponents of Donald

0:21:04.240 --> 0:21:06.960
<v Speaker 6>Trump on both the right and the left to seize

0:21:07.000 --> 0:21:09.480
<v Speaker 6>on because he can you can talk tough on China.

0:21:09.520 --> 0:21:11.760
<v Speaker 6>But then when one of your partners, you know, has

0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:15.399
<v Speaker 6>this enormous Chinese factory as a good close relationship with

0:21:15.440 --> 0:21:18.200
<v Speaker 6>the Chinese Communist Party, like, that's gonna that's gonna lead

0:21:18.200 --> 0:21:18.760
<v Speaker 6>to criticism.

0:21:18.920 --> 0:21:23.280
<v Speaker 2>I keep thinking of a conflicts of interest in this administration.

0:21:24.160 --> 0:21:27.359
<v Speaker 2>You know, here you have Elon advising Donald Trump in

0:21:27.440 --> 0:21:30.119
<v Speaker 2>terms of efficiency of government. If a company that does

0:21:30.359 --> 0:21:34.080
<v Speaker 2>a lot has business contracts right SpaceX with the government,

0:21:34.160 --> 0:21:36.080
<v Speaker 2>you talked about, how you know Elon can get paid.

0:21:36.160 --> 0:21:38.239
<v Speaker 2>I mean his stock is already up thirty percent from

0:21:38.280 --> 0:21:41.040
<v Speaker 2>the election. I mean it just seems kind of complicated

0:21:41.400 --> 0:21:43.840
<v Speaker 2>in terms of the connections here.

0:21:44.040 --> 0:21:46.520
<v Speaker 6>Absolutely. I mean the thing is, if you were paying.

0:21:46.520 --> 0:21:49.280
<v Speaker 6>If you were watching a campaign, what you understand is

0:21:49.320 --> 0:21:52.040
<v Speaker 6>the conflicts of interests are the point. I mean, Trump

0:21:52.280 --> 0:21:54.719
<v Speaker 6>talked about that as an advantage. That was sold as

0:21:54.720 --> 0:21:56.920
<v Speaker 6>an advantage, and it's going to continue to be sold

0:21:56.920 --> 0:21:59.920
<v Speaker 6>as an advantage. Elon Musk he's not just some egghead.

0:22:00.160 --> 0:22:03.080
<v Speaker 6>He really understands business. In fact, he runs a couple

0:22:03.080 --> 0:22:05.800
<v Speaker 6>of important businesses. Trump talked about, you know, on the

0:22:05.840 --> 0:22:09.680
<v Speaker 6>campaign trail, just essentially like ordering up rockets from Elon Musk.

0:22:09.920 --> 0:22:15.600
<v Speaker 6>So I think that they believe Donald Trump, his advisors

0:22:15.640 --> 0:22:20.359
<v Speaker 6>Elon Musk, that basically voters and the Republican Party are

0:22:20.400 --> 0:22:23.280
<v Speaker 6>not going to mind that he's that important. But I

0:22:23.280 --> 0:22:24.879
<v Speaker 6>think that really remains to be seen.

0:22:25.000 --> 0:22:26.520
<v Speaker 4>And you know what.

0:22:26.600 --> 0:22:31.280
<v Speaker 6>Happened during the last Trump presidency is that the controversy

0:22:31.359 --> 0:22:34.080
<v Speaker 6>started to bubble up, right, and then it became harder

0:22:34.080 --> 0:22:36.920
<v Speaker 6>and harder for people who were kind of in Elon

0:22:37.040 --> 0:22:40.320
<v Speaker 6>Musk's position to stay in that inner circles. And that's

0:22:40.359 --> 0:22:42.639
<v Speaker 6>exactly what happened to Elon Musk, by the way, in

0:22:42.680 --> 0:22:47.600
<v Speaker 6>twenty seventeen, amid all this controversy. It was after the

0:22:48.240 --> 0:22:51.000
<v Speaker 6>sort of Muslim bands and Trump left the Paris Climate accords,

0:22:51.200 --> 0:22:55.280
<v Speaker 6>Elon Musk backed away. He had been on another advisory panel,

0:22:55.520 --> 0:22:58.199
<v Speaker 6>So I think that is one thing what's different this

0:22:58.280 --> 0:22:59.919
<v Speaker 6>time around, and I think what's going to put pre

0:23:00.000 --> 0:23:02.920
<v Speaker 6>pressure on Donald Trump and actually put pressure on moderating

0:23:02.920 --> 0:23:06.200
<v Speaker 6>forces within the Republican Party is that Elon has all

0:23:06.240 --> 0:23:08.560
<v Speaker 6>this money that he's going to spend on politics. Yesterday

0:23:08.880 --> 0:23:11.640
<v Speaker 6>he was tweeting that he's going to play in the midterm,

0:23:11.840 --> 0:23:14.280
<v Speaker 6>including the primaries, And if you look read between the

0:23:14.320 --> 0:23:16.720
<v Speaker 6>lines with that, what he's saying is, if you don't

0:23:16.720 --> 0:23:20.919
<v Speaker 6>go along with my agenda, Senate Republicans, congress people, I

0:23:20.960 --> 0:23:23.240
<v Speaker 6>am ready to dump a huge quantity of money into

0:23:23.280 --> 0:23:25.920
<v Speaker 6>a primary, like are you ready for a primary challenge?

0:23:25.960 --> 0:23:29.320
<v Speaker 6>And I think that is going to be his leverage,

0:23:29.320 --> 0:23:31.919
<v Speaker 6>and we we'll see if it actually works. And I

0:23:31.960 --> 0:23:35.320
<v Speaker 6>think where it works partly depends on what John Donald

0:23:35.320 --> 0:23:37.440
<v Speaker 6>Trump decides to do. Does he does he run as

0:23:37.480 --> 0:23:40.280
<v Speaker 6>this kind of ultra maga guy that he presented, or

0:23:40.320 --> 0:23:41.639
<v Speaker 6>does he try to move to the center.

0:23:41.720 --> 0:23:43.800
<v Speaker 3>But I also wonder if Elon Musk lodes his interest

0:23:43.840 --> 0:23:45.960
<v Speaker 3>in this in a few months or in a few years.

0:23:46.720 --> 0:23:48.680
<v Speaker 6>I mean, you know, that is the I think there's

0:23:48.720 --> 0:23:50.359
<v Speaker 6>a conventional wisdom that says.

0:23:50.200 --> 0:23:51.320
<v Speaker 3>He's got a lot on his plate.

0:23:51.480 --> 0:23:55.480
<v Speaker 6>He's got a tention span that that that drifts easily.

0:23:56.400 --> 0:23:58.960
<v Speaker 6>You know, he's got all these companies, he spends hours

0:23:58.960 --> 0:24:01.320
<v Speaker 6>a day playing video games. He's got a lot going on.

0:24:01.560 --> 0:24:03.560
<v Speaker 6>So if this started to get a lot of kids, yeah,

0:24:03.560 --> 0:24:07.120
<v Speaker 6>he's got a lot of kids, you know, many interests.

0:24:07.400 --> 0:24:10.120
<v Speaker 6>But well, I'll say is though, what I'll say is though,

0:24:10.160 --> 0:24:14.959
<v Speaker 6>this is a really great opportunity for him, as a

0:24:15.000 --> 0:24:17.560
<v Speaker 6>government contractor, as somebody who does a lot of things

0:24:18.119 --> 0:24:20.479
<v Speaker 6>having to do with the government, to have influence. So

0:24:20.520 --> 0:24:23.440
<v Speaker 6>I think he's going to ride this train as long

0:24:23.480 --> 0:24:26.520
<v Speaker 6>as it'll go. And I think he does have levers

0:24:26.520 --> 0:24:28.879
<v Speaker 6>that he can pull that will make it harder for

0:24:28.920 --> 0:24:31.560
<v Speaker 6>Donald Trump to push him away than say it was

0:24:31.720 --> 0:24:33.919
<v Speaker 6>to be able to push away these other sort of

0:24:34.119 --> 0:24:36.639
<v Speaker 6>business leaders who got close to Trump the last time around.

0:24:36.680 --> 0:24:39.080
<v Speaker 6>He's not. You know, he has a lot more ways

0:24:39.119 --> 0:24:42.240
<v Speaker 6>to influence Trump than say Anthony Scaramucci, you know, who

0:24:42.480 --> 0:24:44.640
<v Speaker 6>famously lasted ten days as the Press secretary.

0:24:44.640 --> 0:24:46.479
<v Speaker 2>MAXs One thing, I'm curious about all that spending that

0:24:47.200 --> 0:24:50.040
<v Speaker 2>Elon must did on this campaign. I mean, it wasn't

0:24:50.080 --> 0:24:52.080
<v Speaker 2>just a case of just throwing money. I mean he

0:24:52.160 --> 0:24:55.200
<v Speaker 2>was involved in like creating, you know, hiring companies, getting

0:24:55.200 --> 0:24:57.320
<v Speaker 2>people to do it. It was a whole new different way

0:24:57.960 --> 0:24:59.920
<v Speaker 2>of campaigning for a candidate.

0:25:00.119 --> 0:25:03.760
<v Speaker 6>Yes, super unusual. So you're talking about really big money.

0:25:03.760 --> 0:25:05.920
<v Speaker 6>You said one hundred and thirty two million. I think

0:25:05.920 --> 0:25:07.359
<v Speaker 6>when all said and done, is going to be closer

0:25:07.359 --> 0:25:10.119
<v Speaker 6>to two hundred million. So kind of up there with

0:25:10.200 --> 0:25:13.760
<v Speaker 6>the biggest contributions of any donor. And then this approach

0:25:13.880 --> 0:25:16.679
<v Speaker 6>that is really different from any other mega donor. You

0:25:16.720 --> 0:25:19.800
<v Speaker 6>know that Sheldon Edelson was just giving writing big checks

0:25:19.800 --> 0:25:22.119
<v Speaker 6>and staying behind the scenes. That's kind of the model

0:25:22.280 --> 0:25:25.280
<v Speaker 6>Elon Musk, as you said, front and center he's made.

0:25:25.359 --> 0:25:28.399
<v Speaker 6>He made Donald Trump and sort of trump Ism, you know,

0:25:28.440 --> 0:25:31.800
<v Speaker 6>the editorial focus of X, his social network. He was

0:25:31.920 --> 0:25:34.679
<v Speaker 6>on the campaign trail, He's tweeting NonStop. He is he

0:25:34.840 --> 0:25:39.240
<v Speaker 6>is some he brings things to this that are unquantifiable

0:25:39.280 --> 0:25:41.520
<v Speaker 6>and that are probably worth more than the two hundred

0:25:41.560 --> 0:25:42.239
<v Speaker 6>million he put in.

0:25:42.320 --> 0:25:43.760
<v Speaker 3>Hey, one thing I want to talk about is the

0:25:43.800 --> 0:25:46.800
<v Speaker 3>platform X. And you know we talked. In the two

0:25:46.840 --> 0:25:50.239
<v Speaker 3>years that he's owned it, there have been valuation right

0:25:50.359 --> 0:25:54.280
<v Speaker 3>downs by Fidelity for example, how should we be looking

0:25:54.320 --> 0:25:56.320
<v Speaker 3>at the valuation of X, or how should we be

0:25:56.359 --> 0:25:59.359
<v Speaker 3>looking at X as sort of a platform arm of

0:25:59.400 --> 0:26:01.600
<v Speaker 3>the Republican or communications arm.

0:26:01.680 --> 0:26:04.959
<v Speaker 6>Well, it's both a business and it's a loss leader

0:26:05.520 --> 0:26:08.960
<v Speaker 6>media arm for the Elon Ink conglomerate, right, Like, those

0:26:09.000 --> 0:26:10.840
<v Speaker 6>are the two things, those are two functions it serves

0:26:10.920 --> 0:26:13.680
<v Speaker 6>as a business. It hasn't gone super well, as you said,

0:26:13.800 --> 0:26:18.159
<v Speaker 6>Fidelity has written down the value massively. Elon Musk essentially

0:26:18.240 --> 0:26:20.600
<v Speaker 6>taking it over, decided he didn't care about advertising. He

0:26:20.800 --> 0:26:23.560
<v Speaker 6>decided that, you know, he was going to be okay

0:26:23.680 --> 0:26:27.399
<v Speaker 6>with not having a vibrant advertising business. He literally told

0:26:27.680 --> 0:26:30.359
<v Speaker 6>advertisers to f off, you know, from the stage of

0:26:30.440 --> 0:26:34.240
<v Speaker 6>a major conference. And what he's done is sort of

0:26:34.320 --> 0:26:37.160
<v Speaker 6>accepted that this is going to be a less successful business,

0:26:37.440 --> 0:26:40.680
<v Speaker 6>but try to maintain its influence and maybe even intensified.

0:26:40.840 --> 0:26:43.760
<v Speaker 6>And I'd argue in that way it's been a huge success.

0:26:43.800 --> 0:26:46.600
<v Speaker 6>It's been a huge success of political play and even

0:26:46.640 --> 0:26:49.800
<v Speaker 6>as a community like it may not be super vibrant

0:26:50.160 --> 0:26:51.840
<v Speaker 6>in the way it was before. There are a lot

0:26:51.880 --> 0:26:54.800
<v Speaker 6>of journalists who are you know, currently leaving to go

0:26:54.840 --> 0:26:57.600
<v Speaker 6>to Blue Sky or Threads or these competing social networks.

0:26:57.600 --> 0:27:00.400
<v Speaker 6>They're growing very quickly. But among conservatives, among that kind

0:27:00.440 --> 0:27:03.800
<v Speaker 6>of like base that elected Donald Trump, they are on X.

0:27:03.840 --> 0:27:06.240
<v Speaker 6>This is where they are getting their news right now.

0:27:06.280 --> 0:27:08.080
<v Speaker 2>All right, good to leave with there. Hey, Max asoways,

0:27:08.119 --> 0:27:10.920
<v Speaker 2>thank you. Max Chafkin, columnist at Bloomberg BusinessWeek.

0:27:12.320 --> 0:27:16.200
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Listen live

0:27:16.280 --> 0:27:19.480
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0:27:19.520 --> 0:27:22.359
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0:27:22.400 --> 0:27:25.639
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0:27:25.720 --> 0:27:29.359
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0:27:30.200 --> 0:27:30.760
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, let's see.

0:27:30.840 --> 0:27:33.080
<v Speaker 3>Look at shares of Plug Power, the green hydrogen company.

0:27:33.119 --> 0:27:36.159
<v Speaker 3>They're hired today at one point Caroll by nearly ten percent.

0:27:36.240 --> 0:27:39.000
<v Speaker 3>This after shares fell yesterday after the company cut its

0:27:39.040 --> 0:27:41.040
<v Speaker 3>revenue guidance for the full year and missed the average

0:27:41.040 --> 0:27:44.160
<v Speaker 3>analyst estimate. We've got back with us. Andy Marsh, president

0:27:44.200 --> 0:27:47.119
<v Speaker 3>and CEO over at Plug Power, joining us from Plug's

0:27:47.119 --> 0:27:50.760
<v Speaker 3>annual symposium event just outside of Albany, New York. Andy,

0:27:50.800 --> 0:27:52.919
<v Speaker 3>always get to check in with you. Welcome back to

0:27:52.960 --> 0:27:55.640
<v Speaker 3>the program. First, we got to go there. Uh, I'm

0:27:55.680 --> 0:27:58.400
<v Speaker 3>wondering how you're looking at the Trump administration, the second

0:27:58.440 --> 0:28:02.600
<v Speaker 3>Trump administration, given that Elon Musk is so close to him,

0:28:03.119 --> 0:28:06.639
<v Speaker 3>obviously a proponent of EVS. What is having Elon so

0:28:06.720 --> 0:28:09.920
<v Speaker 3>close to Trump mean for hydrogen and for plug power?

0:28:11.359 --> 0:28:15.000
<v Speaker 9>Oh, Tim, I don't get too excited about this, Timmy.

0:28:15.400 --> 0:28:18.480
<v Speaker 9>I've been watching political elections since I was a kid

0:28:18.480 --> 0:28:22.000
<v Speaker 9>in nineteen sixty eight, and you know, things are always

0:28:22.080 --> 0:28:25.639
<v Speaker 9>extreme at the beginning. I think the real question is, uh,

0:28:26.080 --> 0:28:29.520
<v Speaker 9>you know, think a little bit about what Exon CEO

0:28:29.720 --> 0:28:34.879
<v Speaker 9>said yesterday where he said that, you know that Trump

0:28:34.920 --> 0:28:40.600
<v Speaker 9>administration should be thoughtful about their clean climate, clean energy policies.

0:28:41.240 --> 0:28:45.000
<v Speaker 9>And we had two analysts here are Plug Symposium today,

0:28:45.560 --> 0:28:49.720
<v Speaker 9>one Republican, one Democrat. Uh, you know they'll tell you.

0:28:49.880 --> 0:28:53.600
<v Speaker 9>I think the fueling across the board is that small

0:28:53.720 --> 0:29:01.320
<v Speaker 9>nuclear hydrogen, sustainable aviation fuel with biofuel rules you know,

0:29:01.600 --> 0:29:05.360
<v Speaker 9>are in pretty good shape compared to other technologies. And look,

0:29:05.880 --> 0:29:09.800
<v Speaker 9>if you look at my electoralizer business, uh, ninety five

0:29:09.840 --> 0:29:13.000
<v Speaker 9>percent of its outside the United States, and that's my

0:29:13.080 --> 0:29:16.959
<v Speaker 9>biggest growth opportunity. I had one customer flow of forty

0:29:16.960 --> 0:29:21.000
<v Speaker 9>five hours from Australia to present, today, so I'm not

0:29:21.480 --> 0:29:23.600
<v Speaker 9>I don't get too excited about those things.

0:29:23.800 --> 0:29:26.680
<v Speaker 2>I will say, though, Andy, there was some disappointment about

0:29:26.720 --> 0:29:29.680
<v Speaker 2>your forecast, but I do believe you know, you guys

0:29:29.720 --> 0:29:31.600
<v Speaker 2>came out and said, you know, you're still making progress.

0:29:31.880 --> 0:29:34.880
<v Speaker 2>Kind accord atoms, they did lower their price target a

0:29:34.880 --> 0:29:38.440
<v Speaker 2>little bit on the stock. What can you tell us

0:29:38.480 --> 0:29:40.720
<v Speaker 2>about the outlook and give us a little bit more

0:29:40.720 --> 0:29:43.840
<v Speaker 2>insight into how things are going well.

0:29:43.840 --> 0:29:46.360
<v Speaker 9>I think that if you take a look at it

0:29:46.840 --> 0:29:50.080
<v Speaker 9>around the world, I think there's a couple of drivers. One,

0:29:50.320 --> 0:29:53.920
<v Speaker 9>we're working on deals, which are you know, overall for

0:29:54.160 --> 0:29:59.800
<v Speaker 9>people five to seven billion dollar type projects, and we

0:30:00.120 --> 0:30:04.800
<v Speaker 9>probably we're probably overly optimistic about how fast projects like

0:30:04.840 --> 0:30:08.480
<v Speaker 9>that could come to fruition. That being said, they're actually

0:30:08.560 --> 0:30:11.920
<v Speaker 9>paying us to do the work now to prepare to

0:30:11.960 --> 0:30:16.920
<v Speaker 9>do those deployments. And look, you know, regulations haven't moved

0:30:16.920 --> 0:30:20.120
<v Speaker 9>as fast anywhere around the world. It's tough to get

0:30:20.160 --> 0:30:24.960
<v Speaker 9>regulations in place, but they're moving.

0:30:25.440 --> 0:30:25.600
<v Speaker 1>You know.

0:30:25.640 --> 0:30:28.320
<v Speaker 9>We see, as I mentioned, see great progress in Europe,

0:30:29.280 --> 0:30:33.240
<v Speaker 9>actually see progress here in the United States. So we

0:30:33.760 --> 0:30:38.400
<v Speaker 9>and we've also look, it's been a bit of a

0:30:37.480 --> 0:30:41.360
<v Speaker 9>hall here, Carol, and we become a little bit more

0:30:41.400 --> 0:30:43.840
<v Speaker 9>conservative in how we forecast the.

0:30:43.880 --> 0:30:48.880
<v Speaker 2>Future, understood, understood, and respect. Andy, one thing about do

0:30:48.960 --> 0:30:53.720
<v Speaker 2>you think a Trump administration and any expectations around the

0:30:53.800 --> 0:30:57.960
<v Speaker 2>policies that impact your business will be positive or negative?

0:30:58.880 --> 0:31:02.640
<v Speaker 9>That's really interesting question. I know one of the items

0:31:02.640 --> 0:31:06.760
<v Speaker 9>which we've struggled with with the IRA is the production

0:31:06.960 --> 0:31:12.920
<v Speaker 9>tax credit for hydrogen. And you know, we believe we've

0:31:12.960 --> 0:31:16.959
<v Speaker 9>been pretty clear about we think that the regulations that

0:31:17.000 --> 0:31:21.600
<v Speaker 9>were initially written included concepts of a three pillars for

0:31:22.080 --> 0:31:26.360
<v Speaker 9>the hydrogen economy, which was nowhere in the legislation. We

0:31:26.440 --> 0:31:30.800
<v Speaker 9>think the Trump administration will probably be more in gear

0:31:30.920 --> 0:31:35.840
<v Speaker 9>with the recent Loper decision by the Supreme Court and

0:31:35.880 --> 0:31:39.520
<v Speaker 9>where the rate where Congressional intent and how it's implementing

0:31:39.680 --> 0:31:44.200
<v Speaker 9>regulations will be more aligned. Look, I'm not naive either too.

0:31:44.280 --> 0:31:49.320
<v Speaker 9>I don't expect a lot of new programs for hydrogen,

0:31:49.800 --> 0:31:54.280
<v Speaker 9>but we'll do quite well if the new O programs

0:31:54.520 --> 0:31:57.800
<v Speaker 9>are implement the way Congress intended.

0:31:58.200 --> 0:32:02.520
<v Speaker 3>Hey, Andy, I'm wondering the Inflation Reduction Act and what

0:32:02.640 --> 0:32:07.040
<v Speaker 3>that's meant for your business and to what extent you

0:32:07.080 --> 0:32:10.480
<v Speaker 3>could see it parts of it rolled back and how

0:32:10.520 --> 0:32:13.920
<v Speaker 3>that would affect your business when Trump takes office in January.

0:32:15.360 --> 0:32:21.360
<v Speaker 9>So you know, I have a lobbyist who spoke here

0:32:21.400 --> 0:32:26.719
<v Speaker 9>today at the symposium, who sat on the Republicans houseways

0:32:26.720 --> 0:32:30.520
<v Speaker 9>and means runs a tax plan he does not expect

0:32:30.560 --> 0:32:33.520
<v Speaker 9>that he expects to roll back will be on things

0:32:33.640 --> 0:32:39.760
<v Speaker 9>like offshore wind. Look, I think eighty percent of what

0:32:39.840 --> 0:32:43.160
<v Speaker 9>I do is actually done in red districts, in red states.

0:32:43.640 --> 0:32:46.600
<v Speaker 9>I have a large contingent of folks in Houston looking

0:32:46.600 --> 0:32:49.680
<v Speaker 9>to build a large hydrogen plan in Texas. I have

0:32:49.720 --> 0:32:54.320
<v Speaker 9>a hydrogen plan operating in Georgia and Tennessee. Most of

0:32:54.360 --> 0:32:58.160
<v Speaker 9>my customers are in red states. And so you know,

0:32:58.240 --> 0:33:03.280
<v Speaker 9>I think, you know, I think Congress still matters, and

0:33:03.640 --> 0:33:06.440
<v Speaker 9>you know, I think John Thum being centate majority leader

0:33:07.160 --> 0:33:11.560
<v Speaker 9>is you know, is a sign that you know, you know,

0:33:11.640 --> 0:33:16.000
<v Speaker 9>activities won't be extreme one way or another. I think

0:33:16.680 --> 0:33:20.680
<v Speaker 9>there'll be a balance approach. Look, you know, I think,

0:33:20.760 --> 0:33:24.719
<v Speaker 9>as folks mentioned, I think the mantra is all the above,

0:33:24.760 --> 0:33:27.560
<v Speaker 9>and what we do is all the above. And look,

0:33:27.600 --> 0:33:29.480
<v Speaker 9>if we don't do it here in the United States,

0:33:29.480 --> 0:33:31.720
<v Speaker 9>you're going to do it in China. And certainly a

0:33:31.760 --> 0:33:33.760
<v Speaker 9>Trump administration doesn't want it done.

0:33:33.640 --> 0:33:37.600
<v Speaker 2>In China, Andy, how much pressure are you feeling from

0:33:37.640 --> 0:33:40.360
<v Speaker 2>the investment community. I mean, your stock's down about fifty

0:33:40.400 --> 0:33:43.480
<v Speaker 2>six percent year to date, about twenty five almost a

0:33:43.560 --> 0:33:46.720
<v Speaker 2>quarter percent of the float is shorted. It's a two

0:33:46.800 --> 0:33:50.440
<v Speaker 2>dollars stock. I'm just curious what kind of pressure you

0:33:50.440 --> 0:33:53.320
<v Speaker 2>are feeling from investors at this point.

0:33:54.240 --> 0:33:54.440
<v Speaker 8>Yeah.

0:33:54.520 --> 0:33:57.640
<v Speaker 9>So, I plug has thirty one analysts. I had twenty

0:33:57.640 --> 0:34:02.560
<v Speaker 9>of them here today. Actually, the short position is probably

0:34:02.680 --> 0:34:07.160
<v Speaker 9>larger than that, Carol, it's probably thirty seven percent. And

0:34:07.760 --> 0:34:11.040
<v Speaker 9>I think a lot of folks believe that as we

0:34:11.160 --> 0:34:16.160
<v Speaker 9>continue making progress, there's a large opportunity for you short squeeze.

0:34:16.560 --> 0:34:19.439
<v Speaker 9>So you know, I think our investors want to see

0:34:19.480 --> 0:34:21.760
<v Speaker 9>it happen. I spoke with a lot of them here today.

0:34:21.880 --> 0:34:24.160
<v Speaker 2>But you want to be more than a short squeeze

0:34:24.360 --> 0:34:28.320
<v Speaker 2>right to investors? Ye, to be to investors a fundamental play.

0:34:28.640 --> 0:34:32.840
<v Speaker 9>No, yeah, I would say this, Carol. Uh. We do

0:34:32.960 --> 0:34:36.080
<v Speaker 9>want to be a fundamental play. And I think the

0:34:36.120 --> 0:34:38.880
<v Speaker 9>shorts have had a lot of control of the stock,

0:34:38.960 --> 0:34:41.680
<v Speaker 9>and if we are a fundamental play, the stock will

0:34:41.680 --> 0:34:45.880
<v Speaker 9>do just fine. All right, good question?

0:34:46.000 --> 0:34:46.280
<v Speaker 1>Yess?

0:34:47.280 --> 0:34:47.560
<v Speaker 3>Wait?

0:34:47.600 --> 0:34:48.000
<v Speaker 6>Sorry?

0:34:48.719 --> 0:34:50.840
<v Speaker 3>Can you can you god go ahead?

0:34:50.960 --> 0:34:52.160
<v Speaker 5>No?

0:34:52.280 --> 0:34:53.040
<v Speaker 9>Please go ahead.

0:34:53.040 --> 0:34:56.440
<v Speaker 3>Hey, I want to know about production of hydrogen and

0:34:56.480 --> 0:34:59.360
<v Speaker 3>how you're able to, uh you do it in a

0:34:59.360 --> 0:35:01.880
<v Speaker 3>way that's not energy intensive, because that's one thing that

0:35:01.880 --> 0:35:03.719
<v Speaker 3>we talk about a lot. When you're actually producing this,

0:35:04.080 --> 0:35:05.880
<v Speaker 3>a lot of energy is used. So yes, it is

0:35:05.920 --> 0:35:08.840
<v Speaker 3>sort of we you know, people call it a green solution,

0:35:09.239 --> 0:35:10.800
<v Speaker 3>but it still uses a lot of energy.

0:35:13.000 --> 0:35:15.480
<v Speaker 9>It uses a lot of energy, but it also creates

0:35:15.520 --> 0:35:18.520
<v Speaker 9>a lot of energy too too. So let me tell

0:35:18.560 --> 0:35:22.359
<v Speaker 9>you where I think hydrogen we'll really see and you're

0:35:22.400 --> 0:35:28.320
<v Speaker 9>seeing already, is in applications today where hydrogen is used

0:35:28.760 --> 0:35:35.600
<v Speaker 9>in oil refinery, in concrete manufacturing, in ammonia production. You

0:35:35.640 --> 0:35:39.919
<v Speaker 9>know where it will be used at first is in substitution, okay,

0:35:39.920 --> 0:35:43.799
<v Speaker 9>and ultimately and ultimately, you know, what we focus on

0:35:44.000 --> 0:35:48.400
<v Speaker 9>is improving the efficiency of electrializers. And you can get

0:35:48.640 --> 0:35:51.239
<v Speaker 9>to the point where you know, you're never going to

0:35:51.239 --> 0:35:53.719
<v Speaker 9>be at the point where energy in equals energy out,

0:35:54.440 --> 0:35:56.279
<v Speaker 9>but you can get to the you can get to

0:35:56.320 --> 0:36:01.279
<v Speaker 9>a point where it's far superior to even today. It's

0:36:01.640 --> 0:36:04.040
<v Speaker 9>you know, if you think about the full life cycle,

0:36:04.080 --> 0:36:09.920
<v Speaker 9>it's superior to natural gas turbines. So I'm not you know,

0:36:09.960 --> 0:36:12.600
<v Speaker 9>but that is a big, big focus of the company.

0:36:13.000 --> 0:36:15.560
<v Speaker 3>All right, Andy Marsh, we're gonna leave it there. President

0:36:15.600 --> 0:36:19.400
<v Speaker 3>and CEO over at Plug Power joining us just outside Albany,

0:36:19.480 --> 0:36:20.160
<v Speaker 3>New York.

0:36:20.880 --> 0:36:24.920
<v Speaker 5>Romco the journal.

0:36:25.920 --> 0:36:26.919
<v Speaker 7>Now about you, let me drive?

0:36:27.160 --> 0:36:32.480
<v Speaker 6>Oh no, no, no, no, all right, please, I'll do the gravel.

0:36:33.719 --> 0:36:34.439
<v Speaker 2>I want to drive.

0:36:34.440 --> 0:36:37.600
<v Speaker 7>It's a good question.

0:36:41.400 --> 0:36:44.920
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the globe dot com. We'll

0:36:45.520 --> 0:36:47.840
<v Speaker 1>each other down on Bloomberg Radio.

0:36:48.040 --> 0:36:51.200
<v Speaker 2>All right, everybody, just about sixteen minutes left in today's

0:36:51.200 --> 0:36:54.000
<v Speaker 2>trading session. Crouncing around a little bit, a little bit

0:36:54.040 --> 0:36:56.959
<v Speaker 2>more of a muted trade, certainly on the equity side

0:36:57.000 --> 0:36:58.880
<v Speaker 2>of things, but let's get to it. We did get

0:36:58.880 --> 0:37:00.680
<v Speaker 2>an inflation read earlier this morning.

0:37:01.200 --> 0:37:01.600
<v Speaker 1>With us.

0:37:01.640 --> 0:37:04.000
<v Speaker 2>Back with us is Doug Cyoka, CEO and partner at

0:37:04.040 --> 0:37:06.160
<v Speaker 2>Kavar Capital. They've got about one and a half billion

0:37:06.160 --> 0:37:09.879
<v Speaker 2>in assets under management, joining us from his alma mater,

0:37:09.960 --> 0:37:10.560
<v Speaker 2>Notre Dame.

0:37:11.040 --> 0:37:11.239
<v Speaker 6>Doug.

0:37:11.239 --> 0:37:12.200
<v Speaker 2>Good to have you back with us.

0:37:12.200 --> 0:37:15.000
<v Speaker 5>How are you hey? I am great, Thank you for

0:37:15.000 --> 0:37:16.759
<v Speaker 5>having me on and great to be back.

0:37:17.040 --> 0:37:20.480
<v Speaker 2>Well, it's great to have you here. Nothing's going on,

0:37:20.719 --> 0:37:25.480
<v Speaker 2>quiet as could be. The election, the outcome, I don't know,

0:37:25.520 --> 0:37:28.960
<v Speaker 2>how does it change your thinking about the investment environment

0:37:29.000 --> 0:37:31.560
<v Speaker 2>and what's to comers. It just really too soon to tell,

0:37:31.600 --> 0:37:34.279
<v Speaker 2>but we are getting a lot on his cabinet, you know,

0:37:34.360 --> 0:37:36.799
<v Speaker 2>nominees and key advisor nominee. So I don't know if

0:37:37.000 --> 0:37:39.359
<v Speaker 2>that starts to paint a picture of maybe what's to come.

0:37:40.480 --> 0:37:42.200
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean, I think like the one thing that

0:37:42.239 --> 0:37:45.279
<v Speaker 5>certainly helps is is we've had a four years of

0:37:45.360 --> 0:37:48.640
<v Speaker 5>President Trump before, so you know, we're going through and

0:37:48.680 --> 0:37:52.279
<v Speaker 5>experiencing kind of like the old expression of history may

0:37:52.320 --> 0:37:54.839
<v Speaker 5>not repeat itself with it often rhymes. So we're having

0:37:54.840 --> 0:37:58.560
<v Speaker 5>a lot of conversations about like the devilish impact of

0:37:58.760 --> 0:38:01.239
<v Speaker 5>tariffs and trade war two point zero and what does

0:38:01.239 --> 0:38:03.359
<v Speaker 5>this really mean for the yield curve? And I think

0:38:03.400 --> 0:38:09.160
<v Speaker 5>it's it's early right. There are in politics promises versus policy,

0:38:09.239 --> 0:38:11.880
<v Speaker 5>and somewhere between the two will actually lie to the

0:38:11.880 --> 0:38:14.759
<v Speaker 5>outcome of what will transpire. So yeah, I think, look,

0:38:14.800 --> 0:38:18.800
<v Speaker 5>the momentum that's in place that's celebrating what is purported

0:38:18.800 --> 0:38:22.239
<v Speaker 5>to be very much a free trade emphasizing low regulation,

0:38:22.440 --> 0:38:26.200
<v Speaker 5>low tax platform, it likely will be hard to stop

0:38:26.239 --> 0:38:28.200
<v Speaker 5>that going to year into year end, which is seasonally

0:38:28.239 --> 0:38:30.640
<v Speaker 5>pretty strong anyway. But I do think there are gonna

0:38:30.640 --> 0:38:32.799
<v Speaker 5>be a lot of opportunities that emerge, without question.

0:38:32.680 --> 0:38:33.719
<v Speaker 3>What kind of opportunities.

0:38:35.000 --> 0:38:37.360
<v Speaker 5>So right now I think you know more than anything.

0:38:37.480 --> 0:38:39.840
<v Speaker 5>Like we think that's happening in the fixed income markets

0:38:39.880 --> 0:38:43.200
<v Speaker 5>is really fascinating. I mean, everyone's talking about the yield curve.

0:38:43.239 --> 0:38:45.480
<v Speaker 5>Oh my god, how can it possibly see like at

0:38:45.560 --> 0:38:47.719
<v Speaker 5>some some lift in the long end. After the Fed

0:38:47.760 --> 0:38:50.400
<v Speaker 5>has now cut seventy five basis points and two consecutive meetings,

0:38:50.680 --> 0:38:53.040
<v Speaker 5>you realize that this is the third time the last

0:38:53.120 --> 0:38:56.520
<v Speaker 5>five cut undertakings that a month later the curve is

0:38:56.560 --> 0:38:59.560
<v Speaker 5>either flat or a little higher. Right, And it makes

0:38:59.600 --> 0:39:02.680
<v Speaker 5>a ton of sense to us to think about term

0:39:02.760 --> 0:39:06.520
<v Speaker 5>premium steepens is to reflect the fact that there's an

0:39:06.560 --> 0:39:09.920
<v Speaker 5>incipient risk of inflation because the Fed is cutting, GOP

0:39:10.080 --> 0:39:14.040
<v Speaker 5>is still strong, Normalization is validating a labor market that

0:39:14.120 --> 0:39:16.640
<v Speaker 5>is back in balance, Inflation is under control as we

0:39:16.680 --> 0:39:19.400
<v Speaker 5>saw this morning, though not creating lower and the dollar

0:39:19.480 --> 0:39:22.080
<v Speaker 5>is strong. So we think this is a very positive

0:39:22.800 --> 0:39:26.560
<v Speaker 5>transformation away from some pretty steep in version of normalization

0:39:26.600 --> 0:39:28.640
<v Speaker 5>where we can actually pick up yield to make a

0:39:28.640 --> 0:39:30.800
<v Speaker 5>little longer loan. So we're really happy what's happening in

0:39:30.800 --> 0:39:31.959
<v Speaker 5>the fixed income market, right.

0:39:31.880 --> 0:39:33.759
<v Speaker 2>So what's the specific play then, right now?

0:39:35.120 --> 0:39:36.719
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, excuse me. I think the play is in the

0:39:36.719 --> 0:39:38.200
<v Speaker 5>belly of the curve, and I think the play is

0:39:38.239 --> 0:39:39.880
<v Speaker 5>in credit, and I think the play is going to

0:39:39.920 --> 0:39:42.399
<v Speaker 5>be because what happened right in the MEATI market, which

0:39:42.440 --> 0:39:44.400
<v Speaker 5>is kept such a bid in those bonds throughout the

0:39:44.480 --> 0:39:47.200
<v Speaker 5>year in spite of a really ho hun performance by

0:39:47.239 --> 0:39:49.520
<v Speaker 5>the AD, is that this is going to be like

0:39:49.600 --> 0:39:52.680
<v Speaker 5>this is a mind boggling idea. Right, Local governments and

0:39:52.760 --> 0:39:55.640
<v Speaker 5>municipalities actually have to balance the budget. So there's a

0:39:55.640 --> 0:39:57.440
<v Speaker 5>lot of terming out that had taken place. There's not

0:39:57.560 --> 0:39:59.360
<v Speaker 5>a lot of paper that's come to market because some

0:39:59.400 --> 0:40:03.400
<v Speaker 5>of these treasure of this municipalities exhibited very strong foresight

0:40:03.480 --> 0:40:05.480
<v Speaker 5>and locking in little rates for a longer period of time.

0:40:05.800 --> 0:40:08.799
<v Speaker 5>Corporation's not as much, government's not as much. So we're

0:40:08.880 --> 0:40:11.640
<v Speaker 5>seeing that five to seven year period in the curve

0:40:11.760 --> 0:40:14.359
<v Speaker 5>very attracted us. You clip a lot of coupons. Oh

0:40:14.400 --> 0:40:17.240
<v Speaker 5>and if you do get a tailwind from consecutive FED cuts,

0:40:17.239 --> 0:40:18.560
<v Speaker 5>even if they're not going to be as much or

0:40:18.600 --> 0:40:20.759
<v Speaker 5>as big as people thought a year ago, that's going

0:40:20.800 --> 0:40:22.960
<v Speaker 5>to actually give a nice contribution to the total return

0:40:23.000 --> 0:40:25.880
<v Speaker 5>of yield plus appreciation.

0:40:25.680 --> 0:40:29.160
<v Speaker 3>Any any inflationary risks. When it comes to Trump's agenda tariffs,

0:40:29.160 --> 0:40:30.799
<v Speaker 3>we're gonna be speaking about those. We're going to speak

0:40:30.800 --> 0:40:31.640
<v Speaker 3>about those a little later.

0:40:32.760 --> 0:40:35.880
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, no question, right, And I think that that is

0:40:35.920 --> 0:40:38.560
<v Speaker 5>an issue. And again you've got to go back and say, Okay,

0:40:38.680 --> 0:40:42.719
<v Speaker 5>in Trade War one point zero, how much of an

0:40:42.719 --> 0:40:45.600
<v Speaker 5>impact that I have on CPI forget PZ for a

0:40:45.640 --> 0:40:49.440
<v Speaker 5>sec very little, Right, So really, if you go back

0:40:49.480 --> 0:40:52.720
<v Speaker 5>twenty eighteen and nineteen during Trade War one point zero,

0:40:53.080 --> 0:40:57.920
<v Speaker 5>you saw CPI remain pretty stable at almost exactly the

0:40:57.960 --> 0:41:00.960
<v Speaker 5>FED targeted two percent. Now you have to take into

0:41:01.000 --> 0:41:03.719
<v Speaker 5>consideration the backdrop is a little bit different than right.

0:41:04.080 --> 0:41:07.919
<v Speaker 5>You had bubble demand for manufactured goods with a little

0:41:07.920 --> 0:41:10.759
<v Speaker 5>bit weaker slowing trade had already be going to take place,

0:41:10.760 --> 0:41:12.879
<v Speaker 5>which is not the case right now. But you've got

0:41:12.920 --> 0:41:16.040
<v Speaker 5>to keep in mind the changing transformation and composition of

0:41:16.080 --> 0:41:19.720
<v Speaker 5>the US economy. Spending on services right now is sixty

0:41:19.800 --> 0:41:23.719
<v Speaker 5>six percent, in goods thirty three percent, So so much

0:41:23.719 --> 0:41:25.560
<v Speaker 5>of the tariffs that people are fearful going to be

0:41:25.640 --> 0:41:27.799
<v Speaker 5>passed down to a tax to the consumer, it's just

0:41:27.840 --> 0:41:30.439
<v Speaker 5>not impacting as much as their pocketbook as it did three, five,

0:41:30.520 --> 0:41:31.200
<v Speaker 5>seven years ago.

0:41:31.440 --> 0:41:35.760
<v Speaker 3>What's good on It's crazy, It's nuts, I mean yeah,

0:41:35.840 --> 0:41:38.879
<v Speaker 3>everything's coming fast and fear. It's Doug. Thanks for joining us.

0:41:39.360 --> 0:41:41.520
<v Speaker 3>Always get to check in with you. Starts cut a

0:41:41.560 --> 0:41:43.320
<v Speaker 3>little short. We had a lot of breaking news today.

0:41:44.080 --> 0:41:46.319
<v Speaker 3>Definitely appreciate you taking the time. Doug Cioka, CEO and

0:41:46.360 --> 0:41:48.640
<v Speaker 3>partner over at Kabar Capital Partners.

0:41:49.200 --> 0:41:53.839
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast at Apple, Spotify,

0:41:54.000 --> 0:41:57.200
<v Speaker 1>and anywhere else you can get your podcast. Listen live

0:41:57.280 --> 0:42:00.680
<v Speaker 1>weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg

0:42:00.719 --> 0:42:04.040
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0:42:04.080 --> 0:42:06.960
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0:42:07.000 --> 0:42:09.960
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