1 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene with 2 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: David Gura. Daily we bring you insight from the best 3 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 1: of economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance 4 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, 5 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:35,200 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg David Gurn Tom Keen on a difficult 6 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 1: Monday morning, of course America. Of course, last night about 7 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: ten pm, Las Vegas time, one am. I believe that 8 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:47,240 Speaker 1: is David wall Street time. Horrific shooting in Las Vegas 9 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 1: with us now, uh for a generous uh in good 10 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 1: half hours, Robert for fuseck of Jones Day and uh, Bob. 11 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 1: The normal discussion with you would be M and A 12 00:00:57,320 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: and finance, and I guess we can do that here 13 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: in a bit or in our next section. Jones Day 14 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 1: is well in excess of two thousand lawyers worldwide, truly 15 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 1: worldwide and one of your jewels. As Peter Canfield of Atlanta. 16 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 1: I should point out that Mr Canfield has represented Bloomberg 17 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: guilp on various matters and he is a leader in 18 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 1: thinking about guns safety. Um, it's not something Bob, I'm 19 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 1: assuming you're up to speed. On the minutia of us. 20 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 1: But where does the legal business fit into this only 21 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 1: in America debate that we have about guns just framed 22 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:38,959 Speaker 1: for us. Where lawyers fit in to the debate that 23 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:42,279 Speaker 1: we're going to once again have over the next number 24 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 1: of days. Well, I think they basically line up just 25 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 1: where their politics line up. Um. I don't understand personally 26 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 1: why this is a political issue, but it's been been 27 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: that for gosh for decades, and you're gonna be expected 28 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: to continue. There was a a an effort to uh 29 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 1: get the gun control through litigation a few years ago. 30 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:12,080 Speaker 1: It actually kind of on the tobacco model of taking 31 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 1: on the gun manufacturers in the ground they were producing 32 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:18,639 Speaker 1: an inherently dangerous product that didn't really go anywhere in 33 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 1: the courts. Um. So it's not something that's gonna be 34 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 1: gonna be dealt with in litigation. It will be the 35 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 1: political issue. I hate to be negative about it, but 36 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 1: obviously the the lobbying has has kept things from happening 37 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 1: very much is particularly on a federal level. I mean, 38 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 1: the cynic of it all is twenty six dead in Connecticut, 39 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 1: which clearly has a local tinge to our New York audience. 40 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 1: And maybe you know, we shouldn't focus on that versus Danville, California. 41 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 1: But now this horrific event in Las Vegas. From where 42 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 1: you sit, what is the power of those that want 43 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:59,639 Speaker 1: to protect firearms? Is the romance they talk about that 44 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: those weren't firearms in that video this morning, that we 45 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 1: saw people dying in Las Vegas, that was warfare. Well, 46 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 1: sometimes you know, incidents like that can change people's perspectives. 47 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: And when you listened to that continue the automatic weapon 48 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 1: could continuing to discharge, you thought, is this a gun 49 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 1: or is this a weapon? And maybe if there are 50 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 1: people started drawing that distinction. Uh, there's a possibility of 51 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 1: of taking a different perspective. I suspect this may be 52 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 1: something more likely to be dealt with state by state 53 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: than on a federal level. There's just too much paralysis 54 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 1: in Washington over the most basic of issues. And you know, 55 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 1: the pro the anti gun lobby didn't have much, didn't 56 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 1: have much lobby, and r A and other people can lobby. 57 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 1: And I would say, David, and I don't say this 58 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: with any expertise or authority. The video and audio attached 59 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: to it that we ran on Bloomberg Television, this morning. 60 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: I was stunned because I had not seen it until 61 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: we went to air, and I was just thunderstruck by 62 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 1: the immediacy of the video that America wakes up to 63 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 1: this morning. Yeah, I think Bomb's right. I think people 64 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 1: are gonna be reckoning with that today and throughout the 65 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 1: week and beyond. And certainly something that has changed is 66 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 1: the availability of audio and video of incidents like these. 67 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 1: It certainly changes. I think how one process is begins 68 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:23,239 Speaker 1: to process what happened here, probably pivot if I could, 69 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:25,840 Speaker 1: and and and go to something more mundane as as 70 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 1: that Tom said at the top, that is, uh, what 71 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 1: we we focus on here day in and day out 72 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 1: in light of what we've been falling overnight. Just get 73 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 1: us up to speed on sort of what the this 74 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:36,719 Speaker 1: environment looks like for deal making. There's a lot of 75 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:38,599 Speaker 1: conversation here about what the fete is going to look like, 76 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 1: what's going to happen to interest rates? So we continue 77 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 1: to follow that on Bloomberg surveillance, of course, how is that? 78 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 1: How is the conversation about interest rates shaping a company's 79 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 1: appetites for for deal making? Here in two thousand seventeen, well, 80 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 1: equity capital is getting very expensive, but that debt capital 81 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 1: is basically free. I mean for high high end credit, 82 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:02,599 Speaker 1: it's it's effectively free. When you think of the amount 83 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 1: of debt that will be taken down for the Time 84 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 1: Warner deal, for example, it's it's almost like going to 85 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:12,039 Speaker 1: the A T M for a T N T to 86 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:15,719 Speaker 1: do that deal. So it's pretty extraordinary. And that there 87 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: is going to be some pressure when there is a 88 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 1: perspective that those rates will actually change normalize. I'm not 89 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: sure I know what normal means for the debt markets anymore, 90 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 1: but get get higher up, that's gonna put some pressure. 91 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 1: The biggest issue though, is we talked about it earlier 92 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 1: on the on TV, is is getting rid of the 93 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 1: uncertainty about taxation. It isn't that that there'll be repatriation, 94 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 1: although that would be stimulative, or that there will be 95 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:42,840 Speaker 1: lower rates that would be stimulative as well. Is that 96 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 1: some of the other stuff is off the table. That's 97 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 1: important because you're trying to value something and you don't know. 98 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 1: It's hard to do it with that text. I don't 99 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 1: mean to interrupt, but I am it's Monday interruption day here, David. 100 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 1: I'm sorry to interrupt. Do you have a number of 101 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:00,919 Speaker 1: yields where the game changes you have in your head. 102 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 1: I mean, you're not a numbers yield guy, You're a 103 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:07,239 Speaker 1: legal guy. So I'm gonna ask you the question because 104 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:09,479 Speaker 1: probably you're the only one that knows. Do you have 105 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,919 Speaker 1: a number where the rules change for M and A? 106 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 1: Is it a three percent yield? Is it? Do you 107 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 1: have a number in your head? I think when the 108 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:20,479 Speaker 1: ten years starts, when people start getting convinced a tenure 109 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 1: will actually start approaching three, you're gonna see a stampede 110 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 1: or transaction. We would never get that answer, David from 111 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:29,920 Speaker 1: a financial guy, their general counsel, a lawyer like Robert Profuse, 112 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:32,680 Speaker 1: don't say that on air or Profuse, I can said, 113 00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 1: given what we're saying with that, why why have we 114 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 1: seen some sluctions or slowness to to the deals that 115 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,040 Speaker 1: marketplace at this point? Do you think it's gonna we're 116 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 1: gonna see an uptick here soon? Well? I do think 117 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:46,040 Speaker 1: that that. Well, there's a lot of things, of course, 118 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 1: I mean, and there's never one answer at anything, but 119 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 1: to me, the overwriting issue has been the uncertainty of 120 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 1: the of everything going on in Washington, including and that 121 00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 1: and some of that will continue just the you know, 122 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 1: oh my god, can you believe this reaction that we 123 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 1: seem to have on whether it's the NFL or Puerto 124 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:06,480 Speaker 1: Rico or you name it. I mean that that has 125 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 1: an effect. But the fundamentals, tax policy is an important issue. 126 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 1: Um and you know, earlier in the year, and this 127 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 1: was less Trump than and more Kevin Brady. Uh, they 128 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 1: had a Houseways and Means Committee. It was like, We're 129 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: going to do these grand things. We're gonna go to 130 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 1: a territorial system, We're gonna do all of that sort 131 00:07:28,440 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: of stuff. People are saying, well, how do I value something? 132 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:33,800 Speaker 1: How do you value even a retailer, which there's got 133 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 1: to be a lot of M and A in that space, 134 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:37,640 Speaker 1: There's no question about it. But if you import both 135 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 1: of your stuff and there'll be the B A T, 136 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 1: what's it worth? I don't know. I mean, so it 137 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: it inhibited things getting rid of that uncertainty, and it's 138 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 1: self gonna open the floodgate, but it will be an 139 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: important point of a very important part of it. I've 140 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: talked with Stephano Pissina of Well Grade Boots Allions just 141 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 1: a few weeks ago after his steal for right aid 142 00:07:57,480 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 1: went through and I asked him what he thought about 143 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 1: the environment and Shington, and he said, there is a 144 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:04,640 Speaker 1: lot of uncertainty and surprised by how long his particular 145 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: process took. Our things taking longer. Imagine there's a lot 146 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 1: of observation of how these regulators are working, some of 147 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 1: which have fewer commissioners than than a full panoply of them. 148 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 1: Of course, but is it taking longer than it did 149 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 1: in the past. Well, it's it's kind of break into 150 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 1: two pieces. Deals is started in the old administration. Those 151 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: are taking even longer because of there's been a lot 152 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 1: of departures. Um the thing, you know, the leadership changes, 153 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:32,559 Speaker 1: but the staff positions don't change. So their attitudes about 154 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 1: very aggressive uh. Any trust enforcement If FCC you name 155 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:42,560 Speaker 1: a regulatory enforcement, that's that's uh. That's continuing and in 156 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:44,719 Speaker 1: fact even dragging things out. We have a deal that 157 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:47,480 Speaker 1: was announced fourth quarter last year that we thought would 158 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: be long be closed. It looks like a team deal. 159 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 1: Same people who would have reviewed this transaction under President 160 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: Obama they've got it, so they have those attitudes. H 161 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:00,200 Speaker 1: Any trust will get easier. On the other hand, there's 162 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:03,680 Speaker 1: some aspects of the new administration where deals are tougher. 163 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 1: I mean, the amount of Chinese M and A in 164 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 1: in the United States is going to be not virtually nothing. 165 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 1: I think Uma Chinese companies have switched almost like vcs 166 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 1: venture capital investment rather than M and A. Boberfus is 167 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 1: with us here in Bloombic even three studios. He's the 168 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 1: global chair of M and A at jones Day Law 169 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 1: from jones Day and before break, Bubb we were talking 170 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:26,560 Speaker 1: about the role of China in the deal's space, and uh, 171 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 1: you know, I've I've noted the degree to which Chinese 172 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 1: regulators Chinese that government officials are cracking down on capital outflows. 173 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: When when you look at the diminished role of China 174 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:37,960 Speaker 1: in the deal space, is it is it because of 175 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 1: a declining US appetite that you see Cyphius perhaps expressing 176 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 1: some reluctance to approve these deals, or is it more 177 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 1: attributable to what the Chinese government is doing that is 178 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 1: letting less Chinese money out of the global marketplace. Well, 179 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:54,079 Speaker 1: it's really both. Um was an incredible here for Chinese 180 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: investment in North America. Had forgotten the exact number. I 181 00:09:56,960 --> 00:10:00,400 Speaker 1: think it was in the order of j billion dollars. 182 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:04,240 Speaker 1: That's a lot from way more than there have ever 183 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 1: been before. Yes, the it's coming from both ends. The 184 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: Chinese government is cracking down. But when you talk to 185 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 1: Chinese clients we have we have over a hundred lawyers 186 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:18,959 Speaker 1: in China and UM we talked to these clients what 187 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 1: they're really they're They're concerned less about currency issues and 188 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:26,720 Speaker 1: their regulatory UM regulatory matters, but the attitude of the 189 00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:31,079 Speaker 1: current administration, which has perceived to be very antagonistic towards 190 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: Chinese investment. UM. There was an important cifist decision to 191 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 1: block a semiconductor deal on the basis of that impacted 192 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:44,320 Speaker 1: national security. I don't know, there's a lot of semiconductor companies, 193 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:46,560 Speaker 1: no offense to anybody in the industry, but it just 194 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 1: you know, to the m and A community, people went 195 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:53,959 Speaker 1: g that that's pretty significant. There was a cifious decision 196 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 1: earlier having to do with what was essentially a real 197 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 1: estate transaction, but it was close to an army base 198 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 1: up in the Pacific Northwest. So there's a sense that 199 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: some of this America first, and America is going to 200 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 1: be great again, all that stuff, it's going to really 201 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 1: impact foreign investment. Maybe not for an investment generally, but 202 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:19,320 Speaker 1: certainly China within these wonderful observations is our collective memory, 203 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:22,080 Speaker 1: whether it's Pebble Beach Golf Club, remember the upward when 204 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:25,600 Speaker 1: we were kids over that. But I guess my right. 205 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:30,320 Speaker 1: UNICELL was sort of the seismic legal transaction review that 206 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:35,319 Speaker 1: police MR purchasing. Well, there's a the sort of a 207 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:39,160 Speaker 1: very large Chinese company named c which is that at 208 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 1: that time of state owned enterprise tried to acquire Unical 209 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:46,439 Speaker 1: and it has that name Unical, and so the perception 210 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 1: was it was an American company and it was blocked 211 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:52,280 Speaker 1: on Ciphius grounds, like Stiffius is a inter agency's committee 212 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 1: in Washington that looks at things that impact national security. 213 00:11:56,640 --> 00:12:01,559 Speaker 1: And it was a pretty extraordinary transaction. This is because, 214 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:04,760 Speaker 1: in all honesty, it was an oil company. Um. Well, 215 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 1: of course oil in general impacts everything, at least at 216 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 1: least today and back then. Um. But the irony was, 217 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 1: even though it was named Unchale, about eight percent of 218 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:19,160 Speaker 1: assesss were in Asia. UM. So it really wasn't an 219 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:23,320 Speaker 1: American transaction except name only in a real sense. But 220 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 1: that's sort of the point, is that politics can get 221 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 1: in the way. UM. Most times the other regulatory agencies 222 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 1: don't really look at that. UM. But you know, there 223 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:37,920 Speaker 1: was a lot of talk about you know, America, this, 224 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 1: America that, and the and the election last last term, 225 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:43,400 Speaker 1: and we're probably going to see it, and there was 226 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 1: some you know, biggest bad uh stuff. We haven't seen 227 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:50,040 Speaker 1: the answer yet. UM. I frankly think it'll go forward. 228 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:52,560 Speaker 1: But the Time Warner deal still pending, and of course, 229 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:56,840 Speaker 1: as a candidate, President Trump basically said he'd block it. 230 00:12:57,360 --> 00:12:59,959 Speaker 1: So we'll see what if we learned about the leg 231 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 1: to see if breakit. We talk with the legacy of 232 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 1: Brexit before it's officially happened here, but the legacy of 233 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:06,959 Speaker 1: that vote at least, and our notions of of what's 234 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 1: accessible when it comes to to competition and companies in Europe. 235 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 1: I sat down with the Margaret ofst Or a few 236 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:14,560 Speaker 1: weeks back. She was in Washington, d C. And obviously 237 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,559 Speaker 1: she's focusing on a large part on on US tech companies. 238 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:21,439 Speaker 1: Is there a lessoned appetite for for deals in Europe 239 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:22,959 Speaker 1: or in the UK at this point as a result 240 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 1: of Brexit? Well, actually, um, the deal of in the 241 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:31,600 Speaker 1: third quarter Europe was down more than any any other 242 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 1: market if you look, if you think it's Asia and 243 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: America's and Europe. It was down almost fifteent year on 244 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 1: urine on a dollar basis. Um. Again, the number of 245 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 1: transactions wasn't down quite so much. That stays pretty constant, 246 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:48,320 Speaker 1: and that the value is driven by these big deal 247 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 1: of things over five billion and that sort of thing. 248 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 1: I think there's a sense that it's probably not going 249 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:57,040 Speaker 1: to make that big of a difference. Yeah, there will 250 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:00,120 Speaker 1: be a thousand bankers moved from London to frank It 251 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:03,319 Speaker 1: or someplace like this by that, by a financial institution 252 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 1: or two. But in terms of the overall activity, there's 253 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 1: a sense and maybe we're kidding ourselves that maybe it 254 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 1: was more sound and fury than reality. Um. And frankly, 255 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 1: the EU was doing it in general pretty well economically, 256 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 1: and there's in terms of growth rate and all the 257 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 1: rest of it. So that you're seeing a lot of 258 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 1: activity again, thinking about activity, and it comes through the 259 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 1: railed UH announcement about a rail deal that was last week. 260 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 1: That's an evidence there's plenty to do there. So um, 261 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 1: I think people are pretty optimistic. I think the concern 262 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 1: is is Asia. I really do Bob, thank you so 263 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 1: much for being with a great in Your time is 264 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 1: very valuable. Bob Bills by a syllable issue Ago David, 265 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 1: his time is extremely generous of you to be with 266 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 1: a sense surveillance on television and in a radio, and 267 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 1: particularly your perspective there of your colleague in Atlanta. You're 268 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 1: gonna dash out the door. Good to see. Take care 269 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 1: you try to move to things uh more holiday and 270 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 1: more timely on the calendar, which is finally degree in 271 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 1: New York ended a few days ago, joining us. Uh. 272 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,680 Speaker 1: Stephen bar with p WC Steve let me ask with 273 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 1: an open question October one, October two, how does the 274 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 1: holiday season shape up? Yeah, it's really looking like it's 275 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 1: going to be a great holiday both for retailers and consumers. 276 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: We're about to release our holiday outlook which tells us, 277 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:53,160 Speaker 1: which tells us that the majority of consumers about are 278 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 1: going to spend more or the same as they did 279 00:15:56,880 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 1: last year. And that's a six in works. But being 280 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 1: them to spend about six percent more than they did 281 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 1: last year on average overall about eighty nine dollars sounds great. 282 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 1: It's all going to go to Amazon or to some 283 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 1: of it actually migrate to the brick and mortars store 284 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 1: with two down, empty and vacant. Right now, which way 285 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: is that going to till? Yeah, we're we're actually looking 286 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:23,800 Speaker 1: for it to be both. UM a great holiday for 287 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 1: in store and online. No, no question that we're going 288 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 1: to see the majority of the growth online. But the 289 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 1: retailers have really come back with propositions that say they 290 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:38,520 Speaker 1: can keep the store relevant, especially in those areas with 291 00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 1: key demographics. And so for the first time in a 292 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 1: long time, we're looking for stores to have a very 293 00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 1: productive holiday season. How did they go about keeping those 294 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 1: stories relevant? You write about I love this phrase holiday 295 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:54,800 Speaker 1: felicity at stories? How does it? How does a traditional 296 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:57,440 Speaker 1: retailer get people to walk in You went to my house, 297 00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: We've got felicity. Yeah, it's yeah, it's Look, the malls 298 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 1: UM of the past is long dead. And while we've 299 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:14,480 Speaker 1: seen as a massive shift to more entertainment and dining 300 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:18,639 Speaker 1: and so so the stores UM or the malls of 301 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 1: the past that we're really a destination primarily for apparel. 302 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:25,800 Speaker 1: UM now are a destination for community, with dining and 303 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 1: entertainment options making up nearly a quarter a quarter of 304 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 1: the overall property and We've also seen the great mall 305 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 1: operators adapt and they're doing things to draw Gen Z 306 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:42,920 Speaker 1: and and young millennials with things like uber lounges and 307 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 1: really just making it convenient for UM that that next 308 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:50,480 Speaker 1: set of shoppers in the younger generations to care about 309 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:54,880 Speaker 1: the mall. Again. Interestingly enough, UM, we did a survey 310 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,119 Speaker 1: of of young Gen zs and they told us their 311 00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:01,360 Speaker 1: favorite place to shop is actually you store versus online. 312 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 1: You wrote about the move here for people to spend 313 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 1: more this holiday season, I think gout by a six. 314 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:09,959 Speaker 1: That's your your prediction. Is that going to be across 315 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:11,679 Speaker 1: the board? In other words, do you have all strata 316 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 1: of consumers indicating that they're going to be paying more 317 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:18,359 Speaker 1: this holiday season? Yeah, Well, the good news is that 318 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:21,960 Speaker 1: consumers over sixty that earn over sixty tho dollars a 319 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 1: year are are going to spend more this year. But 320 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 1: those consumers UM that that earned less than sixty thou dollars, 321 00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 1: they're they're still struggling. And so the median income for 322 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 1: for UM all households in the US is around fifty 323 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 1: nine thou dollars, but it takes about sixty six thousand 324 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 1: dollars for a family afford to cover their basic needs. 325 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:46,879 Speaker 1: So it's just, you know, we just haven't seen the 326 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:51,199 Speaker 1: wage growth. While it's better than it's been um, you 327 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 1: know in recent past, it just isn't enough to push 328 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,919 Speaker 1: those folks over. So we really do expect that the 329 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 1: higher end consumer, and we also expect and older crowd 330 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 1: to be the crowd that's driving the overall. Okay, I'm 331 00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 1: glad it doesn't identify me. Um. You know, when when 332 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 1: I look at this, Steve, I think beg EON's and 333 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 1: it was a Sears robot catalog that drove the dialogue. 334 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:17,920 Speaker 1: And then maybe with nostalgia and their bankruptcy, it was 335 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 1: Toys r Us. Everybody wandered into Toys r Us for 336 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 1: a frenzy of one hour shopping or two hour shopping. 337 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 1: In case of the growth family, What's what's the emotion 338 00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:31,959 Speaker 1: now behind all your economics, What's what's the emotion of 339 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:38,680 Speaker 1: the holiday moment? Yeah? Well, I think that emotion is 340 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 1: driven by different things. I think that when we see, 341 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:46,159 Speaker 1: for for the younger generations, their emotion is influenced by 342 00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 1: social media, and that that social media is generally visual. 343 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,639 Speaker 1: So we see we see an interesting split in the 344 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 1: analysis where um, for the older crowd, their social media 345 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 1: is drive and by things like Facebook, and then for 346 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:06,639 Speaker 1: for for the younger generations, it's driven by things like 347 00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:10,640 Speaker 1: Instagram and YouTube because they're they're far more visual. So 348 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,040 Speaker 1: and so that's the emotion that was that we're seeing 349 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 1: Steve bar Thank you, Steve Barr, Thank you. P WC 350 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:24,400 Speaker 1: on retail David YouTube will never replace this, Sears, Roebuck 351 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 1: Christmas candalog page four, silvertone guitars. This is Bloomberg, David Garrett, 352 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 1: and Tom Keane here in New York Bloomberg surveillance on 353 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. As a reporter in Washington, I relied often 354 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:52,920 Speaker 1: on the work the Urban Brookings Tax Policy Center, Howard Gleckman, 355 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,359 Speaker 1: Len Berman, Donald Marrin as well, who joins us on 356 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,560 Speaker 1: our phone lines. The Tax Policy Center worked quick after 357 00:20:57,600 --> 00:20:59,919 Speaker 1: that framework came out last week, delivered an analysis just 358 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 1: couple of days later. The headline here the Text Policy 359 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,280 Speaker 1: Center estimating that the proposal would reduce federal revenues by 360 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:08,840 Speaker 1: two point four trillion dollars over the first ten years 361 00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 1: and three point two trillion dollars over the subsequent decade. 362 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 1: Donald mayn Great to speak with you. And before we 363 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:15,920 Speaker 1: dig into that headline number, let me just ask you 364 00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 1: about the difficulty of doing this. We look at these 365 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,440 Speaker 1: nine pages and the unanswered questions there, and how how 366 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:24,639 Speaker 1: difficult is it to forecast the ramifications of something like 367 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 1: this with that little information. Well, you know, it is difficult. 368 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:30,399 Speaker 1: And you'll you'll see that our our report is headlined 369 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:33,919 Speaker 1: a preliminary analysis. Uh they're clearly important features that it 370 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,639 Speaker 1: doesn't include because the administration and Congress have inspelled them 371 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 1: out in any detail. But we've we've seen some of 372 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 1: the ideas they've had in previous proposals, and they certainly 373 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,880 Speaker 1: provided a lot more detail last week. And so this 374 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 1: is this is the team's best cut at what we 375 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,160 Speaker 1: know about the plan so far. Something we've heard over 376 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,200 Speaker 1: the week, and they provided detail in that that framework, 377 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:54,120 Speaker 1: of course, and we've heard from many of the principles 378 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 1: over the course of the week, and Stephen anution, the 379 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary reiterating this is actually going to reduce the 380 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,480 Speaker 1: deaf Is it square square that with what you found 381 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 1: in your preliminary analysis thus far? Uh So, it's exceedingly 382 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:10,960 Speaker 1: difficult to square that. The pieces that we've seen articulated 383 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 1: thus far as as he said in the lead in, 384 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 1: would reduce revenues by more than two trillion dollars over 385 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:20,439 Speaker 1: the next decade. Uh. That doesn't include our estimate of 386 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 1: what the macroeconomic effect will be. That's in the works. 387 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,960 Speaker 1: That just takes longer, so you'll see that soon. But 388 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,000 Speaker 1: you know, none of the models that the scoring shops 389 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,719 Speaker 1: here in Washington, US would show you anywhere near you know, 390 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 1: two trillion plus. Coming back from that, we should point 391 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 1: out that all of our CBO directors, of various flavors 392 00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:42,960 Speaker 1: and persuasions, are steamed academics. Mr Mayren no different with 393 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:46,639 Speaker 1: his mathematics at a school in Cambridge called Harvard, and 394 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,680 Speaker 1: then he went he went down the river, up the river. 395 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:53,440 Speaker 1: I guess it's down the river, downstream into the economics 396 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 1: m I T. And what that tells me done is 397 00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 1: you know, the glide path. If we start at one 398 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 1: point five trillion, I've seen numbers as high as two 399 00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 1: point four trillion. First of all, what's the certitude that 400 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,160 Speaker 1: the number is bigger than one point five trillion? What's 401 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 1: the likelihood is always the case at the cost of 402 00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 1: this thing is a lot bigger than anybody thinks, well, 403 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:17,480 Speaker 1: you know, the likelihood is high of what we saw 404 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,040 Speaker 1: spelled out in detail. But you know, but they did 405 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,639 Speaker 1: include some language in there about things they could do 406 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:24,920 Speaker 1: that might bring in more revenue. Right, So they've talked 407 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 1: about limiting interest deductibility for businesses. Uh, they talked about 408 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 1: possibly while they focused on reducing the tax code individual 409 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,960 Speaker 1: tax code to three brackets, they talked about the possibility 410 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,240 Speaker 1: of a fourth one on high income folks. Obviously, depending 411 00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:41,880 Speaker 1: on what numbers you choose for those, you could raise 412 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 1: a significant amount of money doing those two things. Okay, 413 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,680 Speaker 1: well that's the optimistic tech. Let me be more realistic. 414 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 1: Do you know of any proof in history that generating 415 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 1: that there's a possibility of generating economic growth, sir? Substantial 416 00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:04,159 Speaker 1: tax reduction? Oh you are after the car. Yes, is 417 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 1: there a theory, but is there a tangible evidence? You know? So, 418 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:15,760 Speaker 1: there there's definitely some evidence that links taxes to economic growth, 419 00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,320 Speaker 1: but the magnitudes are just not on the level that 420 00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:21,320 Speaker 1: you know that the more extreme advocates suggest. You know, 421 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 1: when the when the Congressional Budget Office or the Joint 422 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,680 Speaker 1: Committee on Taxation sit down and analyze, you know, look 423 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 1: at all the evidence and then analyze tax proposals. For 424 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:33,359 Speaker 1: ones that are particularly pro growth, they find that sometimes 425 00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:37,760 Speaker 1: the growth will offset ten fift of the lost revenue, 426 00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,159 Speaker 1: which is helpful and material and something Congress ought to 427 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 1: know about, but you know, nowhere near paying for the 428 00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,879 Speaker 1: vast majority of it. Let me ask you what this 429 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 1: means for for individuals. Something else that the Principle stressed 430 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:51,679 Speaker 1: over the weekend here is everyone's going to get a 431 00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,199 Speaker 1: tax cut. Looking at your Prelimer analysis, again, that is 432 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,159 Speaker 1: the case. There are going to be tax cuts for 433 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:58,359 Speaker 1: most Americans. That seems it just varies based on what 434 00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:02,720 Speaker 1: income strata you're in. Yes, it's certainly not everybody, because 435 00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:05,160 Speaker 1: they're going to be some people who face tax cuts, 436 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:08,119 Speaker 1: which I mean taste face tax increases, which is almost 437 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 1: inevitable as you make changes to something that's complicated. Uh. 438 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:14,240 Speaker 1: And it also depends when you look. So if you 439 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,480 Speaker 1: look in the first year all these changes, what hypothetically 440 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:21,080 Speaker 1: be in effect, about seventy eight percent of households would 441 00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,320 Speaker 1: see their taxes go down and in about up. But 442 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 1: then if you go to the end of the decade, 443 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,440 Speaker 1: that's down about with a tax cut and about with 444 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:33,720 Speaker 1: a tax increase. Because of various features that bite more 445 00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:36,720 Speaker 1: as you go through time. Is there a belief among 446 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:40,920 Speaker 1: the proponents of this tax legislation that it's what, to 447 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 1: use a sophisticated word, you learn in differential equations that 448 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:47,520 Speaker 1: it's squishy or is it like the rest of us 449 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,200 Speaker 1: mere mortals think that actually, bright guys like you and 450 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,159 Speaker 1: or Zag and hold Seken and in the Great Alice 451 00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,840 Speaker 1: Riddle and the rest of you, you can actually model 452 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 1: and count what's going to happen. Which is it is 453 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:03,000 Speaker 1: this tangible and pountable model building and analysis or is 454 00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 1: it squishy squishy squishy squishy? So it's both, Uh, yes, 455 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,520 Speaker 1: you know it's I mean the optimistic way we phrase 456 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,720 Speaker 1: that is that there's art and science. The the things 457 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:20,800 Speaker 1: that are spelled out in detail you can model pretty well. Right, 458 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:23,439 Speaker 1: So we have you know, a giant tax tax calculator, right, 459 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,719 Speaker 1: the policy wanks equivalent of turbo tax here um. And 460 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:30,080 Speaker 1: you can analyze that using recent data on what people's 461 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:32,920 Speaker 1: tax returns look like to get a good first kind 462 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,359 Speaker 1: of what things look like. If you make these changes, 463 00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 1: now it gets you know, now you have to start 464 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,639 Speaker 1: making assumptions and estimates and predictions about how will people 465 00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 1: respond and how will the world change in the future, 466 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,520 Speaker 1: and that becomes you know, less and less precise. Uh. 467 00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,880 Speaker 1: But you know the modeling, I think, you know proprised 468 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:53,480 Speaker 1: incredibly useful data information about kind of what you should expect. 469 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,720 Speaker 1: The ballpark of effects debate, did you in your initial 470 00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 1: modeling increase GDP estimates? No? Not in the one that 471 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:05,080 Speaker 1: came out Friday. There wasn't time to run the matter model. 472 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:07,919 Speaker 1: So that's that's something the team is is working on. 473 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:13,359 Speaker 1: Will give you to Wednesday. Don Let me ask you 474 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 1: what we've learned about the business side of things. We've 475 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 1: focused on personal tax cuts and personal tax reform here 476 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:20,600 Speaker 1: when when you look at what's been proposed when it 477 00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:23,000 Speaker 1: comes to the corporate taxes, what have you learned in 478 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 1: terms of the ramifications of that. Well, so, obviously big 479 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 1: cut in the corporate rate right from thirty five down 480 00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:32,080 Speaker 1: to twenty. Uh. You know, some talk about rolling back 481 00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 1: tax breaks that the corporations benefit from. The net effect 482 00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 1: of that would be a significant tax reduction on corporations, 483 00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:43,040 Speaker 1: with the wild card being what happens with interest deductibility, 484 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 1: which is just in there as sort of a placeholder 485 00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:47,399 Speaker 1: at the moment, But we don't know whether they intend 486 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:50,639 Speaker 1: to do that aggressively or not aggressively. What's the greatest 487 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 1: unanswered question you have at this point? Again, the whole 488 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:54,880 Speaker 1: thing is in coit. We're going to see it move 489 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:56,840 Speaker 1: up to Capitol Hills. Some legislation is going to be 490 00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,920 Speaker 1: built around this this framework, presumably. But as you were 491 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:02,639 Speaker 1: doing this analysis, what's the biggest unanswered question? How do 492 00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:04,280 Speaker 1: the thing that made it most difficult to do the 493 00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 1: kind of full analysis you do with the Tax Policy Center. So, 494 00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,320 Speaker 1: I mean the biggest would be, uh, what's going to 495 00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:14,600 Speaker 1: happen with this hypothetical fourth bracket? Uh? Is there one? 496 00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:17,959 Speaker 1: Is there? Not there one? Um? And then the issues 497 00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,680 Speaker 1: about pass throughs, Right, so there's there are many businesses 498 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:24,199 Speaker 1: in America that don't pay taxes directly themselves, but instead 499 00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:27,400 Speaker 1: past their income and tax liability through to their through 500 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:31,960 Speaker 1: to their owners. The tax proposal would reduce, would cap 501 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:36,400 Speaker 1: the tax rate those folks face at uh. And there's 502 00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 1: a big unknown about exactly how you draw the line 503 00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:43,160 Speaker 1: about who qualifies, like do all pass throughs qualify or 504 00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:46,240 Speaker 1: only a limited sent uh? And there's a big uncertainty 505 00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:50,680 Speaker 1: about how well you can prevent people from gaming the system, 506 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,560 Speaker 1: because once you have a rate differential like twenty five 507 00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:55,960 Speaker 1: for pass throughs and thirty five or more for high 508 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 1: income people, a lot of people are going to have 509 00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,560 Speaker 1: an incentive dl LC themselves, and you don't want that 510 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:02,520 Speaker 1: to happen. But we don't know how good a job 511 00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:03,920 Speaker 1: they're going to be able to do with stopping that. 512 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,360 Speaker 1: Donald Maren, thank you so much, Former acting director CBO 513 00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 1: and Urban Institute fellow as well, Dr Marin. Today this 514 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,320 Speaker 1: was scheduled weeks ago. We must start with an opening 515 00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 1: comment on this tragedy from someone who knows the power 516 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,480 Speaker 1: of video. The video of the Jason Aldean concert is extraordinary, 517 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 1: Ken Burns joins us. But before we speak of Vietnam, 518 00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:41,400 Speaker 1: Ken video can change our social dialogue. With the video 519 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,680 Speaker 1: that we see of rapid firing into a large crowd, 520 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:50,200 Speaker 1: will it change the dialogue of gun legislation? Good morning, Tom, 521 00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:52,240 Speaker 1: Thank you for having me. This is, of course a 522 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:56,440 Speaker 1: very very sad momentum. We'd like to say that a 523 00:29:56,520 --> 00:30:00,400 Speaker 1: picture is worth a thousand words, and perhaps film and 524 00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:05,000 Speaker 1: video amplify that. Unfortunately, I think today we've become kind 525 00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:08,720 Speaker 1: of numb and annured to this, and I don't think 526 00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:13,520 Speaker 1: we ever moved the dial either politically or socially, or 527 00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:18,880 Speaker 1: legislatively or more importantly, you know, emotionally or spiritually on 528 00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:24,680 Speaker 1: these things, and we've become kind of um numb. And 529 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:28,120 Speaker 1: I think that in some ways that the best line 530 00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:33,200 Speaker 1: or a line of the of the of the inaugural 531 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,920 Speaker 1: speech in January, this American carnage must stop, was maybe 532 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:42,560 Speaker 1: used prematurely. Kenverns to your acclaimed new video. I think 533 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:46,720 Speaker 1: everyone knows the success of it. I go to the imagery, 534 00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:50,600 Speaker 1: the silver haylide of tri X film that you captured brilliantly. 535 00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:53,680 Speaker 1: Let me just start with what was it like to 536 00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:58,560 Speaker 1: see the images that you saw in compiling this versus 537 00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:02,240 Speaker 1: what Walter crn Kite told me as a kid. Yeah, 538 00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:04,320 Speaker 1: you know, I grew up during that time, and Walter 539 00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:07,360 Speaker 1: Concite I thought was speaking to me, not you, Tom, 540 00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 1: And so all of these things kind of entered into 541 00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:15,640 Speaker 1: my consciousness and formed into my conventional I now realized 542 00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:19,560 Speaker 1: wisdom of very superficial conventional wisdom, and working the last 543 00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:21,920 Speaker 1: ten years putting it together and trying to connect the 544 00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:26,640 Speaker 1: dots between these images, these pictures, this extraordinary photography that 545 00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:30,280 Speaker 1: did at a time change things. Whether it's the assassination 546 00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 1: of the North Vietnamese spy Lamb on the streets of Saigon, 547 00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:37,160 Speaker 1: whether it's Kimfluck, the little girl running naked uh you know, 548 00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:41,120 Speaker 1: of her body on fire from napalm, whether it's the 549 00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:46,320 Speaker 1: friend of the shot student at Kent State over his body. 550 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,760 Speaker 1: All of the images of that war kind of compounded 551 00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:53,720 Speaker 1: into sort of a mass jumble of impressions, and we 552 00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,120 Speaker 1: spent ten years trying to sort them out. What was true, 553 00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,800 Speaker 1: what was accurate, what's the real story behind it? Is 554 00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:02,520 Speaker 1: there a way to provide dimension it? Does contradiction have 555 00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:05,400 Speaker 1: a role in it, because more often than not, and 556 00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,520 Speaker 1: especially in war, the opposite is also true. And so 557 00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:12,680 Speaker 1: by triangulating the witnesses Nor Vietnamese soldiers and civilians via 558 00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:16,160 Speaker 1: con guerrillas, South Vietnamese soldiers and civilians, as well as 559 00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:19,240 Speaker 1: the whole spectrum of American beliefs, we tried to paint 560 00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:22,120 Speaker 1: a portrait that might take these images that form in 561 00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:25,440 Speaker 1: our consciousness and enlarge them and put them into a 562 00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,320 Speaker 1: better content. We're bringing my colleague David. David, you had 563 00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:31,080 Speaker 1: an incredible quantity of footage here, and I wonder if 564 00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:33,120 Speaker 1: you can begin to describe what that process was like, 565 00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:34,960 Speaker 1: just just making it through all of that, and it 566 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 1: certainly brings to front of mind how much of this 567 00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 1: was available contemporaneously. Yeah, so, David, that's a really good question. 568 00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:44,480 Speaker 1: You know, one of the benefits of working in public 569 00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:49,640 Speaker 1: broadcasting and having enlightened understanding underwriters like Bank of America 570 00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:52,120 Speaker 1: who said, you know, when we said this is going 571 00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,800 Speaker 1: to be controversial subject, they said, bring it on, bring 572 00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,560 Speaker 1: it on. Better connected as their slogan, and and like 573 00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:00,480 Speaker 1: the idea of a variety of perspectives. The ten years 574 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,960 Speaker 1: bought us a lot of time to dive deep into archives. 575 00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,680 Speaker 1: Most people filmmakers are going to take what's on the 576 00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:08,320 Speaker 1: top of the table. We could go and ask those archivists, 577 00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:10,240 Speaker 1: could we get the out takes, could we get the 578 00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:13,239 Speaker 1: original negative? Could we see this? We could also go 579 00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:15,720 Speaker 1: to European outlets. We could go to Moscow, we could 580 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:17,800 Speaker 1: go to Beijing, we could go to Hanoi. We have 581 00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:21,080 Speaker 1: some images in there that have never before been seen, 582 00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:24,400 Speaker 1: and we've been able to to show them to a 583 00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:26,760 Speaker 1: great effect. I think David Great and Tom Keene here 584 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,520 Speaker 1: in New York, Bloombergs surveillance on Bloomberg Radio Pleasure be 585 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,920 Speaker 1: joined by Ken Burns, the filmmaker Ken Burns, who with 586 00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:35,760 Speaker 1: Lennovic has created Vietnam An eighteen hour long, a documentary 587 00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:39,120 Speaker 1: in ten parts on PBS focused on that conflict and 588 00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:40,880 Speaker 1: kind I want to ask you just how you you 589 00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,680 Speaker 1: you distill all of this to find the principles on 590 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,960 Speaker 1: whom you focus. I was particularly moved by a via 591 00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:50,239 Speaker 1: Mogi Crocker, Denton Crocker, Saratoga Springs, and you talk with 592 00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:53,400 Speaker 1: his mother, Jean Marie, with with his sister as well, 593 00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:55,840 Speaker 1: Carol Crocker. How do you find someone like that? How 594 00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:58,880 Speaker 1: do you find a story that has so many layers 595 00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:01,640 Speaker 1: and ends up being as moving? Is that one is? Well? 596 00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,840 Speaker 1: You know the key word, David, thank you is is distilled. 597 00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:06,720 Speaker 1: I think you hit it on the head. Most people 598 00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:09,120 Speaker 1: assume that you build a film, and you do that, 599 00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,400 Speaker 1: it's additive, but it's mostly subtractive. So we will collect 600 00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:16,319 Speaker 1: thousands of hours of footage, tens of thousands of still photographs, 601 00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:21,960 Speaker 1: hundreds of hours of testimony, transcripts of of interviews, etcetera, etcetera. 602 00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:24,680 Speaker 1: So we just cast our net as far and wide 603 00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:26,239 Speaker 1: as we can, and in the course of it you 604 00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:30,520 Speaker 1: read an unpublished memoir of of a gold star mother. 605 00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:33,960 Speaker 1: It's very moving, and wonder whether she would be willing 606 00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:37,720 Speaker 1: to share on camera the worst experience of her life, 607 00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:40,719 Speaker 1: and if her daughter might also be willing to do that. 608 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:45,600 Speaker 1: They they were, of course reluctantly, with great reticence and 609 00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:48,920 Speaker 1: and and generosity, and gave a great gift to all 610 00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,960 Speaker 1: of us, not just us as filmmakers, but us as 611 00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,560 Speaker 1: a country, because the half life of grief is endless, 612 00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:59,120 Speaker 1: and when you see somebody who has negotiated it, however 613 00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:02,520 Speaker 1: income completely, it can be a big help. There's a 614 00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:04,560 Speaker 1: moment at the end of our section on the Wall 615 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,040 Speaker 1: where John Musgrave, one of our interviews a marine has 616 00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:12,280 Speaker 1: gone through unbelievable transformations in the course of the film, 617 00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:14,680 Speaker 1: says when he got to the wall, that this is 618 00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,560 Speaker 1: going to save lives. It would be very presumptuous to 619 00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:19,879 Speaker 1: put our work of art on the same level as 620 00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,080 Speaker 1: my a lens extraordinary thing. But I hope that in 621 00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,680 Speaker 1: some ways people will begin to talk with each other 622 00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:29,480 Speaker 1: to themselves about what took place. And I think Jean 623 00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,319 Speaker 1: Murray Crocker and Carol Crocker have done us all an 624 00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:36,640 Speaker 1: enormous service by sharing with you us the painful details 625 00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:40,359 Speaker 1: of the loss of their son and brother. Mogi. What's 626 00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:43,960 Speaker 1: the negotiation, like the conversation like with somebody who is 627 00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:46,920 Speaker 1: a parent, who's lost a child or had someone who 628 00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:50,040 Speaker 1: went right up to nearly committing a suicide. These are 629 00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,960 Speaker 1: incredibly emotional moments you capture. How do how do you 630 00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:55,600 Speaker 1: get people to to consent to to go down that 631 00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:58,239 Speaker 1: path again, to to re engage with the well, you know, 632 00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,600 Speaker 1: I'm not sure that they we we even know or 633 00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:03,719 Speaker 1: they even know what kind of path we're going to 634 00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,919 Speaker 1: go down. For us, we have to be honorable. There's 635 00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:10,560 Speaker 1: no kind of gotcha journalism here, There's no aha. It's 636 00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:14,200 Speaker 1: looking for telltale signs and and maybe listening that much 637 00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:18,440 Speaker 1: harder and pursuing something that caused a twitch in the cheek, 638 00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:21,520 Speaker 1: and and doing it, you know, gently, uh, in a 639 00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:25,920 Speaker 1: way that's not going to upset their own fragile you 640 00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:29,560 Speaker 1: know infrastructure. That's a really really important thing that we 641 00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:32,200 Speaker 1: have to learn is is to listen and to be 642 00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:36,440 Speaker 1: prepared to hear these things from them and and not 643 00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:39,320 Speaker 1: just go after a list of questions. You can't to 644 00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,799 Speaker 1: parallel this. Whether you're magnificent the Civil War, which some 645 00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,480 Speaker 1: of us are embarrassed to say, we've seen five times. 646 00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:50,239 Speaker 1: The Battle of Casson was to go back to Mr Cronkite, 647 00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:53,640 Speaker 1: something daily that we heard about. And this is a 648 00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:57,400 Speaker 1: six month battle, truly a battle almost in the John 649 00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:02,080 Speaker 1: Keegan sense. What did you learn in piecing together Ducto 650 00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:06,200 Speaker 1: and Casson? What was the thing that came away? It 651 00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:09,520 Speaker 1: was totally removed. We didn't know about it except the 652 00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:13,279 Speaker 1: nightly news. And yet here was something out of another time, 653 00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:17,560 Speaker 1: a John Keegan kind of another war, Yes, exactly. And 654 00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:19,799 Speaker 1: so I think that you know, and and it has 655 00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,440 Speaker 1: it harkens back to the Alamo and harkens back other things. 656 00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:25,840 Speaker 1: There's a moment when John Musgrave, the marine I was 657 00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:28,960 Speaker 1: talking about in his experience up an I Corps where 658 00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:31,480 Speaker 1: where Cassan is, he was in a different place called Kandian. 659 00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:34,120 Speaker 1: He said, you know, war is a real estate business, 660 00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:36,200 Speaker 1: but it wasn't here. You don't like to be wounded 661 00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:39,440 Speaker 1: taking the same mountain again. And I think that in 662 00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:42,359 Speaker 1: some ways with regard to Casson, we could grasp it 663 00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:45,480 Speaker 1: because here we were in a place a fort. It 664 00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:48,640 Speaker 1: was like the Indian Wars or the Alamo and we're 665 00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:52,680 Speaker 1: being attacked. So Americans could sort of wrap themselves around 666 00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:57,000 Speaker 1: the Kegan esque aspects of that, and ducto for most 667 00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,399 Speaker 1: of the action of the Vietnam War, though it's something else. 668 00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:02,160 Speaker 1: It's send man a patrol, sometimes as little as a 669 00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,799 Speaker 1: patrol out to be ambushed, to draw fire, to be 670 00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,800 Speaker 1: bait as they themselves, the army guys and the Marines 671 00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,920 Speaker 1: set it. And so these are harder battles to understand. 672 00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:13,880 Speaker 1: And when you take a mountain, a Hamburger hill and 673 00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:18,439 Speaker 1: backwards uh in time uh at great cost, and then 674 00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,400 Speaker 1: abandon it right away, you begin to see the effect 675 00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:24,080 Speaker 1: that it has not just on an American public, but 676 00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:26,600 Speaker 1: on the morale of the soldiers who are being asked 677 00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:29,640 Speaker 1: to take or retake, or or take yet again a 678 00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:32,680 Speaker 1: hill that has no strategic places, just where the enemy is. 679 00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:36,520 Speaker 1: The enemy also understands this, and so they are willing. 680 00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:39,880 Speaker 1: They've they've made a huge commitment of lives that we 681 00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:42,520 Speaker 1: will not count the cost, their leader lays one said, 682 00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,400 Speaker 1: which is a terrifying thing, meaning they will send you know, 683 00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:48,520 Speaker 1: many thousands of men to their deaths in order to 684 00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:52,359 Speaker 1: lure Americans into these kind of battles in which they 685 00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:56,080 Speaker 1: then blend back into the into Cambodia or something like this. 686 00:38:56,560 --> 00:39:00,520 Speaker 1: So John George Marshall said, uh at the end of 687 00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,239 Speaker 1: World War Two that a democracy could be in a 688 00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,640 Speaker 1: war for ten years and then the people would get 689 00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:08,880 Speaker 1: really unhappy about it. So it may be speaking a 690 00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:12,560 Speaker 1: kind of truth from the ancient voices of our past 691 00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:16,239 Speaker 1: generals to what happened in Vietnam in the time we 692 00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:17,920 Speaker 1: have left you. Let me ask you about how the 693 00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:20,399 Speaker 1: way that you make these films has changed. My wife 694 00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:22,480 Speaker 1: and I sat down and watched this contiguously, night after 695 00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:24,640 Speaker 1: night after night, and we came to the realization just 696 00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:27,400 Speaker 1: because of talking to friends that some had binge watched 697 00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,279 Speaker 1: or watched it, you know, in large chunks. Others we're 698 00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:32,640 Speaker 1: gonna wait and watch it later on. It's not a 699 00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:34,879 Speaker 1: moment in the way that it was with the Civil War, 700 00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:36,759 Speaker 1: tim reference, not just a moment ago. How does that 701 00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:38,799 Speaker 1: change the way that you pursue making a film, the 702 00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:41,120 Speaker 1: way that we watch movies, the way that we watched 703 00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:44,360 Speaker 1: documentaries and television programs to do that's a great question. Again. 704 00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:46,040 Speaker 1: I mean, we don't change the way we do it. 705 00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:48,520 Speaker 1: We want to still keep it very process oriented. We 706 00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:50,799 Speaker 1: wish we should were still shooting film where we could 707 00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:52,640 Speaker 1: hold the damn things in our hand instead of all 708 00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:54,719 Speaker 1: of us having a mouse and a keyboard and all 709 00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:57,320 Speaker 1: of that sort of stuff. But we do have to understand. 710 00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,680 Speaker 1: I always watch it every time as broadcast. I am 711 00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,759 Speaker 1: there in my living room alone, uh, you know, or 712 00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:05,560 Speaker 1: with loved ones watching the film that I've made and 713 00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:07,480 Speaker 1: I've seen a hundred times, but I want to watch 714 00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:10,040 Speaker 1: it when everyone else is. But you have to understand 715 00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:12,960 Speaker 1: in this new agent, everybody got it are Underwriter's Bank 716 00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:15,799 Speaker 1: of America, the Better Angels Society, which is a group 717 00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:19,200 Speaker 1: of people across the political spectrum of people of means 718 00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:22,280 Speaker 1: who have contributed to this film. Which was very heartening 719 00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:24,719 Speaker 1: that we could have that kind of support. Uh, you know, 720 00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:28,040 Speaker 1: the various foundations, the government branding agencies all understood we 721 00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:30,480 Speaker 1: have a new paradigm. So you do have that broadcast, 722 00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:33,160 Speaker 1: but it is available for streaming. The DVDs are released 723 00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:36,520 Speaker 1: two days after the series starts broadcasting. I'm meeting friends 724 00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:39,160 Speaker 1: who finished it last night. Tom, you know who s 725 00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:47,920 Speaker 1: this is like the Ken we know and love, you know, 726 00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:49,680 Speaker 1: but so people are and right now it's going to 727 00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:53,400 Speaker 1: be launched Tomorrow Night as a weekly series on on PBS. 728 00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:56,120 Speaker 1: It's gonna take us almost at Christmas time, and um, 729 00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:58,719 Speaker 1: that's the new paradigm. You've got to have it on 730 00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,239 Speaker 1: every single platform in every way. But it doesn't alter 731 00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:05,239 Speaker 1: fundamentally how you make the film, Ken Burns, I downloaded 732 00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:09,160 Speaker 1: off Amazon Video if that helps your data points as 733 00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:12,520 Speaker 1: you can, Ken Burns, congratulations and thank you so much. 734 00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:24,799 Speaker 1: It is simply the Vietnam War. Thanks for listening to 735 00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:29,520 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on 736 00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:35,279 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 737 00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:39,120 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keene, David Gura. Is that David Gura? 738 00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:43,440 Speaker 1: Before the podcast? You can always catch us worldwide. I'm 739 00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:44,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio