1 00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:09,640 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day since coronavirus 2 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:14,640 Speaker 1: was declared a global pandemic. Our main story. Some new 3 00:00:14,680 --> 00:00:19,120 Speaker 1: research suggests the coronavirus could have mutated into a more 4 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 1: contagious strain, but the truth may not be that cut 5 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: and dry. We'll discuss what it really means that the 6 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:36,599 Speaker 1: virus is changing, but first, here's what happened today. The 7 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:40,840 Speaker 1: US unemployment rate more than tripled in April to fourteen 8 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:45,640 Speaker 1: point seven in what was the harshest downturn in history 9 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:51,199 Speaker 1: for American workers. Employers cut twenty point five million jobs. 10 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 1: We now have the highest jobless rate since the Great Depression. 11 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 1: The losses were brought on by coronavirus force in the 12 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 1: economy to a halt two months ago. They erase a 13 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: decade of job growth and show how precarious employment is 14 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 1: for huge swaths of Americans. The job's report showed an 15 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:17,639 Speaker 1: outsize impact on lower paid workers, as well as women 16 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 1: and minorities. Spain reported its biggest increase in new cases 17 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 1: in nearly a week, as the country goes through the 18 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 1: first phase of a plan to relax its lockdown after 19 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:36,040 Speaker 1: eight weeks of confinement Portugal, which began easing confinement measures 20 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 1: on Monday, reported a bigger increase in new cases for 21 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:46,559 Speaker 1: a third day on Friday. New complaints alleged chip maker 22 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 1: Intel compromised worker safety at some of its factories to 23 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 1: keep churning out semiconductors. In the midst of the pandemic, 24 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 1: Intel kept staff and an Arizona plant working closely within 25 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 1: ployees who had tested positive, according to people who work there. 26 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 1: The sources say factory managers also didn't test workers and 27 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:14,079 Speaker 1: dismissed concerns that social distancing guidelines were not being followed properly. 28 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 1: The company said it responded with new policies to improve 29 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: employee safety and kept factory output high because its products 30 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 1: are essential. Finally, the World Health Organization discussed its latest 31 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 1: thinking on where the virus came from. Today, the novel 32 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:37,080 Speaker 1: coronavirus belongs to a group of viruses that begin in bats. 33 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 1: It probably arrived in humans through contact with animals they 34 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: were raising as food, according to the w h O, 35 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 1: though it's unclear through which species. Cats and ferrets are 36 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 1: susceptible to the virus, and dogs to a lesser extent, 37 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 1: and it's important to find which animals can get it 38 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: to avoid creating a reserve are in another species. President 39 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: Donald Trump has suggested that the virus came from a 40 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 1: lab in China, but scientists who have studied the issue 41 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 1: maintained that the virus originated in an animal and probably 42 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:25,920 Speaker 1: entered the human population. In November and now our main story. 43 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 1: Last week, researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory released 44 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 1: alarming news at least one variant of the virus that 45 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: causes COVID nineteen had significantly mutated to become more contagious. 46 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 1: If true, this would have major implications. A new variant could, 47 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 1: for example, hamper efforts to develop a vaccine, or mean 48 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 1: that people who have already had COVID nineteen might face 49 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: a greater risk of getting it again. But critics said 50 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 1: that didn't support such a big claim, and some accuse 51 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 1: the scientists of sensationalizing. Reporter Kristin V. Brown discusses the 52 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 1: implications of a changing virus and what we should make 53 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 1: of this and other controversial findings. So what does it 54 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 1: mean when a virus mutates? So viruses are constantly mutating. 55 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:29,240 Speaker 1: Viruses replicate by copying themselves, and they are not very 56 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:32,719 Speaker 1: good at it, so when they copy themselves, they make 57 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 1: these little, tiny errors, and most of the time those 58 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 1: errors are insignificant. They don't really mean anything, don't change 59 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 1: the way the virus operates. Occasionally you get these changes 60 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: that are what we call a functionally significant mutation. And 61 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 1: that's where things get interesting. When do these mutations actually 62 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 1: mean something for us as humans? They call them functionally 63 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 1: significant mutations because the rusus mutated in a way that 64 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 1: makes it behave differently. So that behavior could mean all 65 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 1: different kinds of things. It could mean that it can 66 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:12,279 Speaker 1: enter a new species, right, It could mean that it 67 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:16,279 Speaker 1: affects different kinds of people. It could mean that it 68 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:20,359 Speaker 1: latches on to its host cell in a more efficient way. 69 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 1: But something about that mutation means that the virus now 70 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:29,600 Speaker 1: behaves differently from the version of the virus that existed before. 71 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:35,839 Speaker 1: And those are the mutations that scientists, drug makers, policymakers 72 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,640 Speaker 1: are really looking out for when it comes to stars 73 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 1: COVI two, because those are the mutations that could change 74 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 1: the way we respond to the virus. Have we seen 75 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: mutations already happen with the coronavirus, So we've cataloged over 76 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 1: seven thousand coronavirus mutations, and there are probably many, many 77 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 1: thousands more that we have not cataloged. But a paper 78 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: last week caused a bit of a star because it 79 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:05,040 Speaker 1: suggested that one of those mutations was functionally significant. So 80 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:09,159 Speaker 1: the coronavirus has these little spiky pieces, and those spiky 81 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:13,920 Speaker 1: bits are proteins that allow a virus to latch onto 82 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 1: a host cell. So the mutation these researchers found was 83 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 1: in that part of the virus, in the part that 84 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: latches on to a host cell, and that's why they 85 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:29,279 Speaker 1: took a closer look at it. Why are they focusing 86 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 1: on this mutation? What the theorist here is there's the 87 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 1: original form of the virus that came out of Asia, 88 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 1: and there is what appears to be a new form 89 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:41,680 Speaker 1: of the virus in Europe with this mutation, and that 90 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 1: European form of the virus seems to be gaining a 91 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 1: lot of ground. So they theorized that this mutation in 92 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 1: the part of the virus that latches on to host 93 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 1: cells was actually making the virus able to spread more efficiently. 94 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 1: That's a pretty big claim that all of a sudden, 95 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 1: you have this virus that's even more robust than the 96 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 1: original Asian stars Kobe two, which is already extremely contagious. 97 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 1: So you're saying that there are actually two different forms 98 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 1: of the virus. The form that emerged in China is 99 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 1: different than the form of the virus that we saw 100 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 1: in say Italy. Researchers are able to use these mutations, 101 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 1: these really small incremental mutations, and basically do like a 102 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 1: family tree for the virus. Right, and as they've done 103 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 1: this family tree, it's seemed like there are two forms 104 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 1: of the virus, the original one that came out of 105 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 1: Asia and one that has emerged in Europe as the 106 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 1: virus has mutated over time, and interestingly, in the United States, 107 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 1: we actually have both forms of the virus. On the 108 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 1: West coast, we seem to primarily have gotten the Asian 109 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 1: form of the virus, and on the East coast it's 110 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: the European form. And we've seen both sort of mix 111 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 1: and mingle here in the US. So there are what 112 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 1: appears to be these two forms of the virus, and 113 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: the researchers were looking at the European form and trying 114 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 1: to figure out if there is anything significant about it 115 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 1: that might explain why the European form has overtaken this 116 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 1: Asian form in some places, is there any way to know, 117 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 1: for example, if you have COVID nineteen, if you have 118 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 1: the Asian form or the European form, they would have 119 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 1: to sequence the virus, right, because these variants are still 120 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 1: tiny bits of genetic code. So I don't think at 121 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 1: this point that you can go get a coronavirus test 122 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 1: and they can be like, oh, you have the Asian coronavirus. 123 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:43,560 Speaker 1: What's the takeaway in terms of knowing that there are 124 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: these multiple forms. So the big question right now is 125 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 1: actually doesn't matter that there are two forms. It's interesting 126 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 1: from the perspective of then you can track how the 127 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:55,679 Speaker 1: virus moves around the world, right, We can track the 128 00:08:56,320 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: virus went to Europe from Asia and then evolved to 129 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 1: become slightly different, and then that that virus came to 130 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 1: the United States. So that helps epidemiologists understand how the 131 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 1: virus is moving. And that's interesting and important just for 132 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 1: basic research to allow us to get a handle on 133 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:16,960 Speaker 1: how this virus operates. But the big question is does 134 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 1: the specific mutation mean anything? And like many things with 135 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:25,200 Speaker 1: the novel coronavirus, at the current moment, we actually just 136 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 1: don't know, and that's what's kind of scary, because it 137 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 1: is very possible what these researchers Posit is very possible 138 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 1: that there is a mutation in this European virus that 139 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: has allowed it to spread more quickly, and that that 140 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 1: mutation is in this really key part of the virus. 141 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 1: The key part of the virus it'sin is the part 142 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 1: that attaches to a human cell. Right. That's also the 143 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 1: part of the virus that we target when we make vaccines. 144 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 1: So if you have a virus that has mutative there's 145 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 1: a question, for example, of will that vaccine now work 146 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 1: only your pan virus? And we don't know the answer 147 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 1: to those questions right now. But these researchers were like, Hey, 148 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:10,320 Speaker 1: this looks really interesting. It could potentially be important. We 149 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:12,840 Speaker 1: need to look at this so we know that we're 150 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 1: developing treatments and vaccines that actually work for the form 151 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 1: of the virus it's becoming more dominant. And how did 152 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 1: drugmakers react to the news about this mutation? So interestingly, 153 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 1: drugmakers at this point feel like this particular mutation does 154 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:33,599 Speaker 1: not matter, that they have not seen anything that suggests 155 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:38,080 Speaker 1: that the versions of vaccines that they're developing will not 156 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 1: work with the European form of the virus. So there's 157 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 1: all this debate over how meaningful this area of the 158 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 1: virus is in terms of the significance of that mutation. 159 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 1: So it sounds like there's still a lot of confidence 160 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:55,559 Speaker 1: that if a vaccine can be created, it can treat 161 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: both the European and the Asian form of the virus. 162 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 1: Right right now, drug maker rs do not see anything 163 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:08,560 Speaker 1: that worries them, anything that makes them think that the 164 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: version of vaccines they are developing based on the Asian 165 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:14,680 Speaker 1: form of the virus will not treat the European version. 166 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 1: But there's debate, there's questions that need to be answered 167 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 1: to ensure that that's true, because if they turn out 168 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:27,239 Speaker 1: to be wrong, then we can have really catastrophic outcomes. 169 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:38,319 Speaker 1: That was Bloomberg's Kristen V. Brown and that's our show today. 170 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:42,559 Speaker 1: For coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world, 171 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:48,240 Speaker 1: visit bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if you like 172 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 1: the show, please leave us a review and a rating 173 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to 174 00:11:55,280 --> 00:12:00,079 Speaker 1: help more listeners find our global reporting. The prognosis The 175 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,839 Speaker 1: edition is hosted by Me Laura Carlson. The show was 176 00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 1: produced by Me topher Foreheaz, Jordan Gospoure, and Magnus Henrickson. 177 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:14,559 Speaker 1: Today's main story was reported by Kristin V. Brown. Original 178 00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:19,200 Speaker 1: music by Leo sidran Our editors are Francesco Levi and 179 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: Reck Shawn. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks 180 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 1: for listening.