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Speaker 1: What two three Brits.

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Speaker 2: In the middle of the feelings? Hellos football.

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Speaker 1: Down in the one yard line?

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Speaker 3: How about that?

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Speaker 1: That is the ultimate kabash and we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Hello everyone, Welcome back to the Action Network NFL podcast.

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Speaker 4: It is the week sixteen Friday Show. I'm Matthew Friedman,

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Speaker 4: the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs, and joining me

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Speaker 4: to break down this weekend's action is Chris Raybond, a

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Speaker 4: senior editor and analyst at the Action Network and a

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Speaker 4: co host of All Take That Bets on ESPN Plus.

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Speaker 4: You can follow him in the Action Network app at

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Speaker 4: Chris Raybon. Chris, how's it going? You are recording this

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Speaker 4: and then you were going to the Action Network holiday party.

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Speaker 1: Are you excited?

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Speaker 2: I am very excited.

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Speaker 5: I don't get to make it to the office as

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Speaker 5: much as I like, so excited to see all the

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Speaker 5: guys than the get it popping.

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Speaker 4: You guys are doing like the secret Santa thing?

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, we are.

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Speaker 1: Who do you have?

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Speaker 2: I can't tell you.

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Speaker 1: I can't tell, but by the time this airs, we'll

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Speaker 1: already know.

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Speaker 2: No, I can't tell you.

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Speaker 4: You make it out, man, You are tight lipped. Okay, Well,

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Speaker 4: on the subject of giving something away. You're giving away

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Speaker 4: one final Action Network subscription to a lucky listener, and

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Speaker 4: that person is Thomas Hawk. Thomas, congrats on the free

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Speaker 4: sub Email us at podcast at actionnetwork dot com that

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Speaker 4: is the plural podcast at actionnetwork dot com and claim

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Speaker 4: your free subscription.

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Speaker 1: Chris.

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Speaker 4: Earlier this week, you did the Monday show with Ian Hardest.

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Speaker 4: I did the Wednesday show with Peter Jennings and Shawn Corner.

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Speaker 4: The Wednesday show was great. We've got the Friday show.

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Speaker 4: If you are enjoined the Action Network NFL podcast, please rate,

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Speaker 4: interview the show, subscribe, unsubscribe, and resubscribe to us a

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Speaker 4: solid holiday favor. Speaking of the holidays, next week we're

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Speaker 4: going to take a slight break, so there will be

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Speaker 4: no money show. Also no Wednesday show, but Peter and

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Speaker 4: Shawn will be on the Friday show, which will have

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Speaker 4: a little bit of the Wednesday feel to it. So Chris,

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Speaker 4: let's kick off by looking back at week fifteen. We

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Speaker 4: both went to three four and one. We both got

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Speaker 4: hosed with our Green Bay bullishness as well as the

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Speaker 4: Steelers pats over we pushed on the Texans Jets game.

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Speaker 4: We both hit by going under in the Colts Cowboys game,

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Speaker 4: and you again one by backing the forty nine ers.

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Speaker 1: Can't believe it.

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Speaker 4: I won by being optimistic with the Eagles. So that's

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Speaker 4: that's where we are for the playoffs. You are seven

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Speaker 4: six and one. I am five eight and one. Let's

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Speaker 4: get into it unless you have anything you want to

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Speaker 4: comment on about.

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Speaker 5: I mean, Jason Myers had to have he had to

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Speaker 5: have used in plus six minus six five or something

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Speaker 5: because I could take two extra like it. We spent

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Speaker 5: all show arguing about that game, and then it pushes ridiculous.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, that's what we get for talking about

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Speaker 4: a game that's sitting at seven. That's what we get.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's get to our opening first and five segments.

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Speaker 4: We're going to break down the five games and right

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Speaker 4: now are getting the most action and the action network gap,

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Speaker 4: the games have the highest ticket counts, and the first ones.

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Speaker 4: I mean, let's just start Texans once again. Texans at Eagles,

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Speaker 4: Eagles favored by one and a half a forty six

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Speaker 4: point over under. The spread is up from a pick them.

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Speaker 4: The majority of the money is on the Eagles. Almost

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Speaker 4: all of the money is on the over. The Texans

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Speaker 4: have won ten of eleven games and they have a

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Speaker 4: real shot at getting a first round by The Eagles

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Speaker 4: are coming off a i'd say Heart of the Champion

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Speaker 4: Sunday Night Football win over the Rams and they're still

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Speaker 4: in the running for a playoff spot with Super Bowl

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Speaker 4: MVP Nick Foles at quarterback.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I can't.

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Speaker 4: Believe, like I'm I'm now like on the Houston side

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Speaker 4: of everything, but in this game, I can't believe the

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Speaker 4: Texans aren't favored. But smart people are talking about the Eagles.

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Speaker 4: So Chris, talk to me about the Eagles.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, you know me, I love the Texans

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Speaker 5: as well. In this spot, it's I think they opened

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Speaker 5: as a favorite, if I'm not mistaken so well in

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Speaker 5: this game, I think it comes down to the Eagles

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Speaker 5: can be exploited in their secondary on the back end. However,

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Speaker 5: you know it would have been ideal for Houston to

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Speaker 5: still have Will Fuller to do that.

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Speaker 2: Obviously.

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Speaker 5: DeAndre Hopkins, this is a blow up spot for him

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Speaker 5: as far as Fantasy dfs and all that believe. We

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Speaker 5: have him ranked number one in our consensus rankings over

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Speaker 5: at Action network dot Com.

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Speaker 4: But Action Network dot Com slash Fantasy just throwing that

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Speaker 4: in there there.

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Speaker 1: You got to give it the full treatment.

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Speaker 2: We're doing slashes now, and you know, I.

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Speaker 4: Like how you threw that in just sliding it. That

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Speaker 4: was really well done.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, so I'm looking at some splits here and

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Speaker 5: this is, you know, this is kind of what concerns

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Speaker 5: me a little bit about Houston's ability to fully kind

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Speaker 5: of go hand against the Eagles in the spot. Deshaun

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Speaker 5: Watson's yards per attempt still very good without will fod

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Speaker 5: this year eight point oh three, eight point seven to

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Speaker 5: six with Fuller in the lineup. But if you look

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Speaker 5: at net yards per attempt, which takes into account sacks,

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Speaker 5: which is really important when you look at the Texans

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Speaker 5: because Deshaun Watson takes a ton of sacks and you know,

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Speaker 5: top three in the league in terms of taking sacks,

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Speaker 5: and so they're down to six point two netyards per

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Speaker 5: attempt since week number nine, which was their first game

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Speaker 5: without Fuller, you know, when he tore the ACL. So

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Speaker 5: overall the Eagles, it's a pretty even game. And the

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Speaker 5: fact that the Eagles have the home field advantage, I

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Speaker 5: actually have them with a slight edge. I actually took

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Speaker 5: them at one point five and I'll take that bet

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Speaker 5: for this Friday show, so Ilean Eagles, but I'm going

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Speaker 5: for us. I'm going with the under here under forty

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Speaker 5: six because I think that kind of slightly reduced efficiency

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Speaker 5: for the Texans, and then on the other side, probably

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Speaker 5: some some reduced efficiency for Nick Foles compared to Carson Wentz,

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Speaker 5: even though I know Foles had the big game. I

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Speaker 5: think the fact that the over under got bet up

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Speaker 5: half a point to a point, I think that's mostly

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Speaker 5: due to the recency bias.

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Speaker 2: You know, the Texans Jets, it.

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Speaker 5: Was a pretty low over under a game and that

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Speaker 5: went that went over by I believe it was ten points.

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Speaker 5: And then on the other side you had the Eagles

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Speaker 5: rams game just hitting that over under a fifty three.

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Speaker 5: So I think He's people are kind of seeing two

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Speaker 5: teams that you know, scored a little more than expected,

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Speaker 5: had a higher scoring game and expected last week, and

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Speaker 5: kind of artificially inflating it. So I'm going with the

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Speaker 5: under for this game, but I do Lean Eagles, just

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Speaker 5: just by a tiny, tiny bit.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's I don't know.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I'm pretty bullish on the Texans here, and

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Speaker 4: I'm probably on the square side of this. But you're

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Speaker 4: right to point out, and I pointed this out in

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Speaker 4: the quarterback Breakdown, which you can find at Fantasy Labs,

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Speaker 4: that Deshaun Watson.

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Speaker 2: Cleate right right, Fantasy Labs slash what well, I.

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Speaker 4: Mean, I'm just saying, I mean, actually network actually worked

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Speaker 4: at coms slash fantasy.

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Speaker 1: That's where I say that every show.

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Speaker 5: Okay, okay, okay, So if we if we draw on

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Speaker 5: the dot com, that's when we start slashing we're doing.

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Speaker 1: Okay, gotcha, you know I mean so yeah, Fantasy Labs.

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Speaker 1: You know, you can find it in Fantasy Labs.

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Speaker 4: Uh anyway, So you can find this, this wonderful piece

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Speaker 4: at at Fantasy Labs, dot com slash articles, NFL slash

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Speaker 4: DFS slash fantasy anyway.

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Speaker 1: So uh this not no one's gonna run or read it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but the splits Watson splits with and without Fuller

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Speaker 4: are they're pretty extreme. And you can see it with

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Speaker 4: the offense too. And if you look at all of

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Speaker 4: the players, not just uh receivers, but you know running

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Speaker 4: backs tight ends. All of the players to whom Watson

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Speaker 4: has given five targets in his career, he is clearly

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Speaker 4: the most efficient when throwing to Fuller, and like you

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Speaker 4: could say that there's you know, like some noise in there.

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Speaker 4: But he has an adjusted yards per tenth mark of

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Speaker 4: thirteen point six when targeting Will Fuller. To compare that

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Speaker 4: to Damarius Thomas, it's nine point nine three for DeAndre Hopkins,

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Speaker 4: it's nine point seven toy six. We would expect Hopkins'

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Speaker 4: number to be lower because he just gets so many

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Speaker 4: more targets. But the point is like Fuller adds a

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Speaker 4: real extra dimension to that offense, and I think they

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Speaker 4: will miss him. That said, I have very little respects

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Speaker 4: right now for that Eagles defense, especially the secondary. It's

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Speaker 4: just it's really decimated. They're missing their safety, they are

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Speaker 4: missing their two starting outside corners. It's unlikely I think

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Speaker 4: that Sidney Jones is going to play in this game.

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Speaker 4: So they are basically starting like backups to the backups

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Speaker 4: at the outside position.

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Speaker 1: It's just it's not a good situation for them.

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Speaker 5: What do you make of like, you know, gone off

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Speaker 5: that in the Eagles defense? So what do you make

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Speaker 5: of their performance against the Rams? Because they held the Rams,

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Speaker 5: you know, pretty pretty in check for a large part

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Speaker 5: of that game. I know the Rams kind of had

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Speaker 5: a drive at the end and added a touchdown. But

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Speaker 5: you know, what do you attribute that to? You know,

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Speaker 5: as far as the Eagles and where they're at defensively.

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Speaker 4: Hashtag heart of the Champion, that's what I'm attributing to.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it was and I said this on the

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Speaker 4: last the last show, Like I think it's like it

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Speaker 4: was like their final game of like, all right, our

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Speaker 4: quarterback is out, people are riding us off. We were

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Speaker 4: playing the team that could be in the super Bowl

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Speaker 4: this last year, Like we are not going out like chumps,

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Speaker 4: like we are going to put out a good game.

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Speaker 4: Like I know that sounds like that's total narrative Street,

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Speaker 4: but like I think that was a big part of it,

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Speaker 4: you know. I feel and also the Rams like they

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Speaker 4: just haven't been the same since Cooper Cup's injury. You know,

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Speaker 4: like there's just there's something I think more going on

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Speaker 4: with that offense than with just like the defense of

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Speaker 4: the Eagles and what they were able to do. Anyway,

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Speaker 4: I'm taking Houston over twenty two and a half.

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Speaker 1: I like that a lot. I don't know those four points.

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Speaker 5: The one thing, you know, because this is a tough game,

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Speaker 5: it's I feel like they're very thin margins. But the

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Speaker 5: one thing that concerns me just about points in this

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Speaker 5: game is that Foles can also kind of have these

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Speaker 5: ugly games, and you know, he played against the Rams

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Speaker 5: last week. It's kind of a situation where you're gonna

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Speaker 5: be as probably as aggressive as you're gonna be against

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Speaker 5: any team on offense because you're trying to you know,

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Speaker 5: you have to score points. Houston not quite the same

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Speaker 5: type of team. But remember that Dallas game against Silly

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Speaker 5: two weeks ago where that was nine to six or

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Speaker 5: something well into the third quarter and then you know,

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Speaker 5: because the game was close and it ended up going overtime.

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Speaker 5: You know, the Egles got gave up a ton of

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Speaker 5: production and they gave up twenty nine points. But I mean,

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Speaker 5: if that game doesn't go to overtime, it's it's a

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Speaker 5: whole different type of six pas.

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Speaker 4: That's like the Dak Prescott undermachine. Like, you know, I'm

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Speaker 4: not that's a totally different type of offense. Like Sean

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Speaker 4: Watson is not, you know, he's not.

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Speaker 1: Dak Prescott like. It's just it's different.

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Speaker 5: The Houston offense has gotten a little Prescott like. But yeah,

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Speaker 5: they don't they don't have that same type of rush

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Speaker 5: vom because they don't have that same type of running back.

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Speaker 5: Lamar Miller popped up on you know he he hurt

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Speaker 5: his angle last game.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they have gotten Prescott esk, but they're still

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Speaker 1: scoring points.

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Speaker 4: Like I think that's actually like kind of the big

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Speaker 4: distinction is that they're still pretty good. Like, they're pretty

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Speaker 4: efficient at turning yardage into points and the Cowboys aren't

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Speaker 4: nearly as efficient at doing that. Okay, let's talk about

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Speaker 4: the Bills at the Patriots. Patriots favored by thirteen a

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Speaker 4: forty four point five over under. Thirty three percent of

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Speaker 4: the bets fifty two percent of the money is on

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Speaker 4: the Bills, who might have a future with Josh Allen

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Speaker 4: and Robert Foster. The Pats have lost two straight games.

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Speaker 4: They need a win if they hope to get a

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Speaker 4: first round by but they will be without Josh Gordon.

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Speaker 4: News breaking today that he is taking time away from

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Speaker 4: the team and has been suspended indefinitely by the league.

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Speaker 1: Oh man, Chris, what are your what are your thoughts

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Speaker 1: on this game?

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Speaker 5: I mean, I don't think Gordon hit my miss game prediction,

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Speaker 5: but he came close.

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Speaker 2: He can't close. I think I predicted six, he's gonna

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Speaker 2: end up missing.

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Speaker 5: What is it for now to yeah, I think four,

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Speaker 5: But yeah, I hope he's getting what he needs to

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Speaker 5: get done. As far as the game, you know, the Patriots,

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Speaker 5: I don't know what's up with them. They've been kind

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Speaker 5: of uncharacteristically sluggish at times this season.

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Speaker 2: Well, also tough game to the Steelers last week.

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Speaker 5: But I still think they have a pretty big advantage

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Speaker 5: over the Bills in this game.

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Speaker 2: Even with the new improved.

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Speaker 5: Josh Allen aka the Josh Allen without Kelvin Benjamin, without

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Speaker 5: you know, Andre Holmes, they are kind of taking up targets.

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Speaker 5: I think they've kind of found something with this top

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Speaker 5: three of Zay Jones, Robert Foster, and Isaiah McKenzie kind

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Speaker 5: of functioning in that jackiem Grant kind of role as

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Speaker 5: Ian hard It's called it.

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Speaker 1: We not religious, but I'm not going to take too

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Speaker 1: much issue with it.

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Speaker 5: Go ahead, But yeah, no, So, I think the Bills

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Speaker 5: definitely have improved on offense. But that being said, I

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Speaker 5: still think the Patriots have a major advantage just in

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Speaker 5: terms of their pass offense against the Bills pass offense,

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Speaker 5: even in its improved state, even with Josh Gordon being out,

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Speaker 5: I mean, you still have Rob Gronkowski and Edelman. We

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Speaker 5: saw Chris Hogan make the big player though I think

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Speaker 5: he'll probably see a lot of Tredavius White now that

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Speaker 5: Gordon is out. Still have guys like Cordero Patterson and whatnot.

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Speaker 5: So I think that the Patriots can get it done here.

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Speaker 5: And I like the spot for them because they're coming

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Speaker 5: off a loss that you know, didn't work out last week,

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Speaker 5: but they are thirty eight and thirteen against the spread

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Speaker 5: coming off a loss. Since two thousand and three, they're

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Speaker 5: eight and three against the spread when they're on a

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Speaker 5: two game losing streak, you know, when they score ten

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Speaker 5: points or fewer in a previous game.

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Speaker 2: Evan Abrams wrote.

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Speaker 5: This up in our betting preview over at Action Network

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Speaker 5: dot Com slash NFL. No nice, you know, he wrote,

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Speaker 5: he gave he wrote this nugget, which I thought it

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Speaker 5: was interesting. Since three when the Pats scored ten or

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Speaker 5: few points in their previous game, they're eleven and oh

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Speaker 5: straight up ten in one against the spread and they

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Speaker 5: cover by an average of eleven point six points per

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Speaker 5: game in the next game. So I think that this

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Speaker 5: is a rebound spot for the Patriots. I do think

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Speaker 5: the Bills will can and you to get support just

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Speaker 5: because of the Patriots struggle and the youth spread. And

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Speaker 5: I'm usually kind of trying to bet the underdog and

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Speaker 5: spread this big, but I just like the spot, the

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Speaker 5: rebound spot for the Pats and I think, you know,

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Speaker 5: everyone's kind of down on them right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I hear you.

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Speaker 4: Based on the podcast that Chad Millman did with Bob

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Speaker 4: Scucci the Favorites podcast on Wednesday, Scooch said that the

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Speaker 4: sharp money is on the Bills. The public is laying

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Speaker 4: the number that said, I can't I can't find it

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Speaker 4: in myself to take the Bills, But I kind of

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Speaker 4: want to stay away from the Patriots a little bit.

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Speaker 4: I could see them winning by ten, you know what

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Speaker 4: I mean, I could see like the back door cover.

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Speaker 4: So like that's just a situation I kind of want

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Speaker 4: to stay away from. But I do feel confident overall

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Speaker 4: in points And it's kind of correlated with what you're

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Speaker 4: saying that if if you're looking to take the Patriots,

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Speaker 4: I think you would also be fine with probably looking

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Speaker 4: for the the over there, because I do think that

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Speaker 4: the Bills will find a way to you know, like

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Speaker 4: Josh Allen, random touchdowns, you know, deep throat of Robert Foster,

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Speaker 4: whatever it is. I think they will find a way

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Speaker 4: to score some points. So and just kind of historically

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Speaker 4: in the Gronk era, the Patriots tend to go over

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Speaker 4: quite a bit at home. So I'm comfortable even though

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Speaker 4: Gronk isn't his full self, I'm still confident enough to

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Speaker 4: take the over there if I had to take a

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Speaker 4: position on this game.

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Speaker 2: I hear your point, and I've thought about the over two.

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Speaker 5: I do know, you know, it's one of those things

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Speaker 5: with the second game in a divisional series, and they

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Speaker 5: did play a pretty low scoring game the first time

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Speaker 5: that that's the only thing that gives me a little

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Speaker 5: bit of pause about that, because the second games are

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Speaker 5: usually lower scoring. So this is another tough one. But yeah,

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna I'm sticking with the Pats. You know, I

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Speaker 5: expect them to rebound.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Okay. Third game Bengals at Browns. Brown's favored by nine,

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Speaker 4: a forty four point five over under. Almost all of

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Speaker 4: the money is on the under. The Bengals are without

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Speaker 4: Andy Dalton, AJ Green and presumably Tyler Boyd, who's dealing

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Speaker 4: with his sprained MCL. The Browns are four and two

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Speaker 4: since dismissing head coach Hugh Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley.

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Speaker 4: They still have theoretical shots to make the playoffs at

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Speaker 4: six seven and one, And Chris, you just kind of

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Speaker 4: have to ask yourself, like, if they had just started

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Speaker 4: Baker Mayfield to begin the season, would they be slotted

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Speaker 4: for a playoff spot right now? I think they would

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Speaker 4: have a real chance at it. But what are you

347
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Speaker 4: making of this game?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I agree with true they probably would

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Speaker 5: because they they could have won.

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Speaker 2: That game against Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 5: And like the Browns here, they've been just excellent since

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Speaker 5: Freddie Kischens took over on offense. You know, Baker Mayfield's

353
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Speaker 5: net yards per attempt has skyrocketed, His yards per attempt

354
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Speaker 5: has skyrocketed.

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Speaker 2: He's getting it done.

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Speaker 5: They've been a lower volume offensive team overall, Like the

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Speaker 5: play volume is down over the last few games, So

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Speaker 5: I'm for both sides of the ball.

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Speaker 2: So they're allowing.

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Speaker 5: Fewer plays and they're and they're having fewer plays. So

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Speaker 5: I still like the Browns minus nine here.

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Speaker 2: I know it's been.

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Speaker 5: Bet up, but actually had it at nine myself. So

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Speaker 5: that's the I think that is the correct line. But

365
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Speaker 5: over under kind of tough, I don't. I just think

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Speaker 5: the Browns can put up a lot of points in

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Speaker 5: this spot.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 5: Again, Baker Mayfield has been superb on you know, ten

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Speaker 5: point eight two yards for attempts against Carolina, nine point

371
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Speaker 5: two against Houston, nine point nine against Cincinnati, ten point

372
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Speaker 5: eight against Atlanta, six point zero against six point one

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Speaker 5: excuse me against Denver. But tough defense on the road.

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Speaker 5: So I'm expecting back at home for Baker Mayfield to

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Speaker 5: kind of get back to what he was doing over

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Speaker 5: those previous four games. And that's the only reason I'm

377
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Speaker 5: kind of shying away a little bit from the total,

378
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Speaker 5: because I think this could be a smash spot for

379
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Speaker 5: the Browns.

380
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I really like what I've seen out to Baker Mayfield,

381
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Speaker 4: Like he can he can play well enough in bad spots,

382
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Speaker 4: you know, and I think like that's kind of like

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Speaker 4: the hallmark of a good quarterback, you know, if he

384
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Speaker 4: can avoid those really bad games when lesser quarterbacks would

385
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Speaker 4: have bad games. And he's you know, obviously continuing to

386
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Speaker 4: improve in like how much do you love Freddy Kitchens?

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Speaker 4: Like I just like, I really like that guy. I

388
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Speaker 4: hope he gets a shot to stay his offensive coordinator,

389
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Speaker 4: or he gets a gig some other place. Whatever it is, like,

390
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Speaker 4: I want more Freddy kit in the league.

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Speaker 2: It's I love it.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, And it's funny how the pendulum keeps slinging as

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Speaker 5: far as you know, what was the brown issue. What's

394
00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:09,439
Speaker 5: obviously with the Browns issue is but you know, it

395
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Speaker 5: was like, okay, well, Sashi Brown should get a lot

396
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Speaker 5: of credit for what he did, and it's it's all

397
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Speaker 5: on you and the coaching. And then he get Kitchens

398
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Speaker 5: and now it's like he's doing even better, like he's

399
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:21,199
Speaker 5: exceeding all expectations and making it look like, you know,

400
00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:21,920
Speaker 5: the coaching is.

401
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Speaker 2: The deciding factor.

402
00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:26,040
Speaker 5: But overall, I think the Browns organization as a whole,

403
00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:28,320
Speaker 5: it's just just in a great place right now. I mean,

404
00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:30,160
Speaker 5: you got may even if you don't make the playoffs,

405
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Speaker 5: I mean you got Mayfield going forward.

406
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Speaker 2: A lot of talent on off they have. They have

407
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Speaker 2: such a good collection of talent.

408
00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:37,960
Speaker 5: Now that Baker Mayfield is really spreading the ball around

409
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:40,080
Speaker 5: a lot more. You know, Jarvis Landry for the last

410
00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:42,439
Speaker 5: six seven weeks, his target Shre's down to twenty one percent.

411
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Speaker 2: I mean it's hurt.

412
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Speaker 5: It sucks because it's kind of hurting a Joku too

413
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:49,520
Speaker 5: for fantasy and even Landry, yeah those guys. But you know,

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Speaker 5: just from an NFL real life perspective, I think the

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Speaker 5: Browns are in a great spot.

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Speaker 4: From like the developmental perspective of a quarterback finding his

417
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Speaker 4: way in the league and playing this well as a rookie.

418
00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:02,200
Speaker 4: I don't care at all that he spreads it around,

419
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:04,960
Speaker 4: like it's that's a very Drew Brees type of thing,

420
00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:07,560
Speaker 4: and like, I think it's a good sign that he's

421
00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:10,359
Speaker 4: spreading the ball around instead of just kind of focusing

422
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:13,639
Speaker 4: on his one receiver or two receivers kind of to

423
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 4: the detriment of the team. And also like his own statistics.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm with you. I'm taking Cleveland. I got

425
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Speaker 4: it at six and a half. I bet that right

426
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Speaker 4: away when I saw it, because I just I knew

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Speaker 4: that number was gonna I didn't think it was.

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Speaker 1: Gonna move to nine.

429
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Speaker 4: I mean I thought maybe like seven, but uh yeah,

430
00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:31,080
Speaker 4: I'd still take it at nine.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that that was definitely a good one.

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Speaker 5: When you you said you generally tend to jump on

433
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Speaker 5: lines immediately and then you kind of revise if you need.

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Speaker 1: To, yeah, later in the week.

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Speaker 5: Do you generally find that because I feel like as

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Speaker 5: the week progresses, what tends to happen is that, since

437
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Speaker 5: the public like favorites, favorites tend to get bet up.

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Speaker 5: So would you say that, like you tend to find

439
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:55,520
Speaker 5: more value on favorites earlier in the week or does

440
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:56,880
Speaker 5: it just kind of is it just a case by

441
00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:57,480
Speaker 5: case kind of thing.

442
00:19:57,640 --> 00:19:59,359
Speaker 1: That's a good question, to be honest.

443
00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:02,119
Speaker 4: I don't think I've been self reflective enough to be

444
00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,639
Speaker 4: able to say accurately where I've been successful on jumping

445
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,120
Speaker 4: on lines early and when I haven't. Because there are

446
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:12,159
Speaker 4: cases where like underdogs do see line movement. I just

447
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:15,040
Speaker 4: don't know if I've been jumping on those teams or not.

448
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:17,760
Speaker 4: But I think I have seen value normally. Where I

449
00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:20,320
Speaker 4: see the value is on the favorites, where I look

450
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 4: at a line and I think that's gonna move.

451
00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:22,560
Speaker 1: Yeah.

452
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:24,159
Speaker 5: No, that makes sense, Yeah, because I you know, a

453
00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:26,159
Speaker 5: lot a lot of times what happens is like, you know,

454
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 5: because of the public. I believe it was something like

455
00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 5: eighty percent of bets, you know, the public or something

456
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:33,080
Speaker 5: like some high number, definitely more than fifty, like the

457
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,760
Speaker 5: public bets on favorites, and so those lines tend to infleet.

458
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,240
Speaker 5: But yeah, for Cincinnati, just real quick, because I feel

459
00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:40,800
Speaker 5: we didn't mention Cincinnati all the reason that I think

460
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:45,080
Speaker 5: you and I both are bullish here on the Browns

461
00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 5: beyond just their their offense and what they're doing on

462
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 5: that side of the ball against this Cincinnati defense that's

463
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:53,240
Speaker 5: bottom five and DVOA, is that Cincinnati's real one advantage

464
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,160
Speaker 5: in this game is not really an advantage per se,

465
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:58,879
Speaker 5: because Nick Chubb has been great, but Joe Mixon and

466
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:02,640
Speaker 5: that run game for cincinnt going against Cleveland's run defense,

467
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,199
Speaker 5: which has not been very good. But that's just not

468
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 5: it's usually the run game just doesn't tend to impact

469
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:10,399
Speaker 5: point differunt for that much. So you know, Cleveland twenty

470
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 5: third and run DVOA, but Cincinnati is going to have

471
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 5: to pass, convert third downs and things like that, and

472
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,920
Speaker 5: Drisco throwing to you know, without even potentially tire Boyd.

473
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 2: That's just a real tough spot.

474
00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, and the Browns have been much better in pass

475
00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 4: defense this year, especially with the addition.

476
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 1: Of Denzel Ward.

477
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 4: And then the maturation of Miles Garrett as a pass

478
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,640
Speaker 4: rushing threat. Much better this year than they were last year.

479
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 4: I was talking about the Steelers at the Saints. This

480
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:37,360
Speaker 4: is going to be a great game, at least I hope.

481
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,119
Speaker 4: So for me, this is kind of the game of

482
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 4: the week. Saints favored by six, a fifty three point

483
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:44,280
Speaker 4: over under, forty eight percent of the bets, sixty two

484
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 4: percent of the money is on the Steelers, seventy eight

485
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 4: percent of the money is on the over. The Steelers

486
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 4: are coming off of a win against the Patriots, but

487
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 4: they've lost three of their past four games. They're still

488
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 4: in danger of losing their place atop the division, even

489
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 4: of falling out of the playoffs. And then on the

490
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 4: other side, the Saints can lock up the number one

491
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 4: seed in the NFC with a win, and they have

492
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 4: won twelve of their last thirteen games. One news item here,

493
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 4: actually a couple of news items. We are recording this

494
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,760
Speaker 4: on Thursday. It seems as if James Connor is likelier

495
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 4: than not to miss this game. He stole sideline and

496
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:18,359
Speaker 4: practice and then, maybe even more importantly, there is a

497
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 4: report that Juju Smith Schuster popped up on the injury

498
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 4: report with a groin issue, so he was downgraded to limited.

499
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,920
Speaker 4: So definitely keep an eye on that, and it might

500
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,640
Speaker 4: be a situation. And in re draft leagues, if you're

501
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,200
Speaker 4: depending on Juju's something, I don't know, you're desperate, maybe

502
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,120
Speaker 4: you add Eli Rogers or James Washington or something like that.

503
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,879
Speaker 1: But Chris, what are your thoughts on this game?

504
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 5: Well, okay, so just to start with on Juju if

505
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,160
Speaker 5: for something, yeah, if something does go wrong, I didn't

506
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:47,400
Speaker 5: research a couple of years ago.

507
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 2: I hope to update it with more recent data.

508
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 5: But I did like a looked at like seven eight

509
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 5: years of data at the time and found that wide

510
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 5: receivers that play after being on an injury report with

511
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 5: a growing issue about a seventeen percent decrease in PPR production. Now,

512
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 5: that's still relatively small sample, even though it's a lot

513
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,120
Speaker 5: of years. It's forty nine games, so you can't put

514
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,360
Speaker 5: too much stock into it, but probably a slight Downngrade,

515
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 5: even if he does play Eli Rodgers in his first

516
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 5: game back, kind of operated as that as that primary

517
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 5: third receiver in terms of targets. But James Washington snap

518
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 5: rate was up, so it's kind of a murky situation

519
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 5: at this point. As far as the game overall, you

520
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,199
Speaker 5: got to start with the Saints and their defense. I mean,

521
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 5: the Saints defense has been just superb over over this

522
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 5: last six week stretch. They haven't allowed more than seventeen

523
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:41,399
Speaker 5: points in a game over these last six weeks, and

524
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 5: that's just something that I don't think we've said about

525
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 5: the Saints in god knows how long. I know that

526
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:48,919
Speaker 5: five game streak was. You had to go back to

527
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,440
Speaker 5: two thousand and six, so it's been a minute. And

528
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 5: the Steelers played a low scoring game themselves with the

529
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 5: New England Patriots last week, a lot lower than I

530
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 5: know you and I.

531
00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 2: Both thought it would be.

532
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 5: So I'm into the under in this game because I

533
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,400
Speaker 5: think that, you know, make to the every day better.

534
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:08,359
Speaker 5: I think these two teams still look like these offensive juggernauts, and.

535
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 2: They and they generally are.

536
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 5: But you know, now you got ju Ju popping up

537
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 5: on the injury reports, you got the Saints playing well

538
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:18,479
Speaker 5: on defense, and you have Drew Brees and that offense

539
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 5: coming back down to earth a little bit. They're back

540
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,679
Speaker 5: at home, so I do expect a lot better of

541
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 5: her performance than they had.

542
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 2: You know, going on the road to Carolina.

543
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:31,880
Speaker 5: But this is still, you know, probably not quite as

544
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 5: explosive of an offense as we were sitting here talking

545
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 5: about it maybe a few weeks ago. Even Pittsburgh's kind

546
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 5: of been middle of the road defensively. There's sixteenth in EVA,

547
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 5: you know, number eight against the run, number twenty one

548
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 5: against the past, so they can definitely be exploited. But

549
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 5: you know, seeing New England score only ten ten points

550
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 5: against them last week was pretty eye opening to me.

551
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 5: So I think Pittsburgh's also kind of playing a little

552
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 5: better around defense, just like the Saints are. So I'm

553
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,440
Speaker 5: I'm going to roll with the under in the game,

554
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 5: but I do think it should be a real exciting game.

555
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, So I am with you on a lot of

556
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 4: that logic. The one thing is like I just don't

557
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 4: want to take an under for the entire game at you.

558
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 1: Know, the Super Dome.

559
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 4: I just like, you know, I feel like I would

560
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 4: be like asking for trouble, just because like that's been

561
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 4: like the nut spot for taking the overs in the

562
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 4: Drew Brees era. It's like almost you just blindly bet it,

563
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 4: you know. I hear you though, on the defensive resurgence

564
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,119
Speaker 4: that the Saints have had. They started out this season

565
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 4: in horrible fashion, giving up a lot of points, and

566
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,399
Speaker 4: I think that's something that kind of stuck with people

567
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,160
Speaker 4: just because that's what they saw at the very beginning

568
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 4: of the season. But like we should remember, like last

569
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 4: year that was a very good Saints defense, and then

570
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 4: if you kind of look past the first month, they

571
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 4: had struggles and then especially after they added Eli Apple

572
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 4: to the secondary, and it's hard to know kind of

573
00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:59,400
Speaker 4: exactly how much of an impact he's made. But like

574
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 4: with out question, this defense has gotten better recently and

575
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 4: they are number one in the league at eleven and

576
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,439
Speaker 4: three when it comes to holding opponents under their team total.

577
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:11,120
Speaker 4: And then we have on the other side of that

578
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:15,400
Speaker 4: the Steelers on the road. You just hammer they're under

579
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,680
Speaker 4: kind of no matter what. So like I'm I'm fine

580
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 4: with kind of putting those two things together and taking

581
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 4: under twenty three and a half for the Steelers just

582
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 4: not the same team that they are when they're in Pittsburgh.

583
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 4: Although this is a good spot, like historically playing in

584
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:33,119
Speaker 4: the Superdome has been a good spot for visitors. I

585
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,679
Speaker 4: just don't I'm kind of not buying that narrative as

586
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,880
Speaker 4: much anymore, just because the SAME's defense has improved a lot.

587
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,119
Speaker 5: Yeah, and that's kind of the same reason I'm on

588
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,120
Speaker 5: the under for the game itself. I think a lot

589
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 5: of that those historical trends as far as the Saints

590
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:48,719
Speaker 5: and the Superdome is because Drew Reed is such an

591
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 5: excellent quarterback, and you know, offense has always played better

592
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 5: at home, so he kind of puts the pressure on

593
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 5: teams to score even more.

594
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 2: And then their defense has just been pretty terrible for most.

595
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 5: Of that time, and so it sults in high scoring

596
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 5: gamess not quite the same situation. So yeah, I'm with you.

597
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 5: You know, it's tough with the Steelers. I think that's

598
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 5: actually a short play though, because again, the Saints haven't

599
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 5: given up.

600
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 2: They haven't given up more than seventeen in six weeks.

601
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 5: I mean, they played the falcon that's a pretty solid offense,

602
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 5: makes mistakes, but still a solid offense. They played the

603
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 5: Bucks in Tampa, they played the Cowboys.

604
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:26,080
Speaker 2: No, none of those guys eclipsed seventeen. So not a

605
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 2: bad play.

606
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 5: But that's why I'm going to stick with the under

607
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 5: for the game, because I think this I don't see

608
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,360
Speaker 5: the Saints just just blowing out the Steelers either.

609
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 2: At this point, I think they're kind.

610
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 5: Of going to run the ball and kind of control

611
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,719
Speaker 5: the game and with this new style of play that

612
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 5: they have with it with this defense.

613
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:44,479
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's that's definitely fair. The one thing is that

614
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:47,160
Speaker 4: if it worked out where the Saints just went off

615
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 4: for like forty points and then the Steelers, so they

616
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 4: basically like hit the over almost by themselves, and the

617
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,399
Speaker 4: Steelers had only like seventeen points, It's not as if

618
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,120
Speaker 4: I would hate myself and it'd be like, yeah.

619
00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 1: You know, I should just take it the other on

620
00:27:58,280 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 1: the Steelers.

621
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 5: It's actually I saw interesting stat they posted on the

622
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:06,199
Speaker 5: telecast of the last Saints game that they're just not

623
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 5: scoring points in the first quarter, And so I think

624
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:10,159
Speaker 5: you mentioned it like you don't want to take it

625
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 5: for the whole game, So I think that actually might

626
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 5: be a short play to the first quarter under or

627
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:15,640
Speaker 5: even the first half one.

628
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, no, that's that I think. Yeah, if

629
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 4: you were to do it for the game, I think

630
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 4: that's for both teams combined. I think that would be

631
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 4: the way to do it. Okay. The fifth game here

632
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,639
Speaker 4: picked by the listeners Buccaneers at Cowboys Cowboys favored by

633
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,399
Speaker 4: seven a forty seven point five over under. The Bucks

634
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 4: have lost six of their last eight games. The Cowboys

635
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 4: have won five of their last six, but they are

636
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,159
Speaker 4: coming off of a shutout road loss to the Colts

637
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 4: and they need to win to keep their spot at

638
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 4: the top of the NFC East. Chris talk to me

639
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 4: about why I should hate the Cowboys.

640
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 5: Oh, man, yeah, you're just going because you're going back

641
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 5: and forth like crazy on these Cowboys. I remember it

642
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 5: was like a couple of weeks ago, you're really down.

643
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 5: Then you were saying, how last week you're really high

644
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 5: in them.

645
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 1: I have no read this team.

646
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 4: And I say that every week, and it's true, I

647
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 4: have no accurate read. Whatever I say about this Cowboys

648
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 4: team do the opposite.

649
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 5: So yeah, you know in this game that was definitely

650
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 5: since Amri, we always start there. They have improved. Their

651
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 5: net yards per attempt is up to six point two.

652
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 5: It's five point nine for the year, but six point

653
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 5: two with Amari Cooper, but that mark still is pretty

654
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:24,480
Speaker 5: underwhelming when you consider Jameis Winsted, and even after kind

655
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 5: of coming back down to earth over the last few games,

656
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 5: his net yard per attempt is still six point eight,

657
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 5: and that's right in line with his career mark as well.

658
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 5: I also think that Tampa Bay's defense, particularly their past defense,

659
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 5: has been a bit better since they fired you know,

660
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 5: Mike Smith, the defensive coordinator. Anthony and Miko wrote a

661
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 5: great article about it's on Action Network dot com slash

662
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 5: NFL about how it was actually talking more about the

663
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 5: run game and how Ezekiel Elliott is going to have

664
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 5: an advantage because Tampa Bay has been essentially playing smaller,

665
00:29:57,680 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 5: getting out of base essentially on defense, going with more

666
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 5: and smaller linebackers and things of that sort to kind

667
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 5: of curtail opponents passing games. So I do think that

668
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 5: Dallas will continue to kind of be in that in

669
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 5: that same range with with you know that they've been

670
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 5: with with Dak and Amari here.

671
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 2: Obviously, you know, getting Zach Martin back would be would

672
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 2: be huge.

673
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 5: That offensive line was decimated against the Colts and that

674
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 5: contributed to the Black Wester performance.

675
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 2: But I think the fact that the Bucks still have

676
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 2: you know, you kind of.

677
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 5: Project the Bucks to still gain be more efficient as

678
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 5: a passing team, even though you kind of think of

679
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 5: think of it the opposite, because they've been so bad

680
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 5: on defense over the full year, I think you can

681
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 5: still project the Bucks to be more efficient.

682
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 2: Than the Cowboys passing. I think the Cowboys definitely.

683
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 5: Gonna have the advantage on the ground, but that's you know,

684
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 5: that's not quite as important as as the passing game.

685
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 5: And then I think it's the over under is tough

686
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 5: in this one because you know those dak Unders tend

687
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 5: to hit. But this this Bucks team, I mean, there's

688
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 5: so many factors in turn, like tile factors, because you

689
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 5: have Jamis still liable to revert, to turn the ball

690
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 5: over a lot, but you also have the Bucks that

691
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 5: can They'll go down the field with the football, so

692
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 5: they could put up points and we kind of so

693
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 5: happened in that Dallas Philly game. So I am going

694
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 5: to take the Bucks as a seven point dog. I

695
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 5: think it's a little much for when you have a

696
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 5: team that's a run first team, because if you look

697
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 5: at this season, Dallas has won by seven by more

698
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 5: than seven only twice, so six of their eight wins

699
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 5: have been my seven or less. But that also means

700
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 5: that twelve of their fourteen games have been They would

701
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 5: essentially do no worse, You do no worse than pushing

702
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 5: in it right twelve twelve to fourteen times, So I'd

703
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 5: still like the Bucks at this number.

704
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 2: I think it's I think it's too big.

705
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it's it's hard to go wrong being

706
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 4: betting against Jason Garrett, for one. But let me let

707
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 4: me throw some statistics at you that are the most

708
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 4: disheartening I could find as a Cowboys fan. Okay, So,

709
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 4: although the Cowboys have been much better passing the ball

710
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 4: with Amari Cooper for the season and granted just seven

711
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 4: games on the splits with Cooper without Cooper, but for

712
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 4: the season, they have twenty points per game without him

713
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 4: and only nineteen point four points per game with him,

714
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 4: and on a per drive basis, they actually scored one

715
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 4: point eight six points without him and one point eighty

716
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 4: five points with him. They're accumulating more yards, but they

717
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 4: haven't become any more efficient at turning those yards into points. So,

718
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 4: like that is something that is still going to haunt

719
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 4: this team. I think their inability to convert yards into points,

720
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 4: And for me, like that is kind of like the

721
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 4: signal of coaching, you know, Like I think good coaches

722
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 4: can find a way to turn yards into points, and

723
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 4: bad coaches aren't quite as good at doing that. And

724
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 4: then I look at the Bucks since they fired Mike Smith,

725
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 4: and you mentioned Anthony Miko's article, a really good piece.

726
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:06,640
Speaker 4: People should check that out at actionnetwork dot com slash NFL.

727
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 1: They have been much better in past defense.

728
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 4: They allowed seventy six point eight percent completion rate in

729
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 4: weeks one through six, only a sixty eight point eight

730
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 4: percent completion rate after that. And that's still a really

731
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 4: high completion rate, but the yardage discrepancy is huge. Three

732
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 4: hundred and fifty five point eight yards passing in weeks

733
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 4: one through eight, only two hundred and four point four

734
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 4: yards passing since then. So they they have gotten much

735
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 4: better defensively. It's not as if their defensive unit is

736
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 4: still actually all that good, but I think it's good enough,

737
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 4: and the Cowboys are inconsistent enough.

738
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 1: It's scoring points that I'm I'm fine with taking the

739
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 1: under here, under forty seven and a half.

740
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's definitely fair.

741
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 5: You know, I think that that's the key here, is

742
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 5: that it's Tampa Bay's defense has been better. But you know,

743
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 5: I think the one thing about the stats the splits

744
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 5: with within without Amari, is that it really depends how

745
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 5: much weight you give to that shut out because it

746
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 5: kind of has the feel of an outlier, only because

747
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 5: you know, Zach Martin went down kind of in the

748
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 5: middle of the week.

749
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 2: I believe it was or something like that.

750
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 5: I forget what happened, but that could have just been

751
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 5: like one of those outliers.

752
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:13,320
Speaker 1: It might get outlier.

753
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 4: But even if you factor out that game, they were

754
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:19,720
Speaker 4: scoring only twenty two point seven points per game with Amari,

755
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 4: that's still not like a high total. And it's like,

756
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 4: you know, twenty two point seven versus twenty points without him,

757
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:28,640
Speaker 4: that's not all that significant, you know what I mean?

758
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 5: Absolutely, Yeah, No, I totally agree with you it. I mean,

759
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 5: I think this is a game I actually like because

760
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 5: I do like that under the more and more I

761
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 5: think about it, and I love the spread as well

762
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 5: for Tampa Bay.

763
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, this is actually a game. I'll probably have

764
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 2: a lot of action on.

765
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 1: Okay, we have the two minute drill next.

766
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 4: Right after Josh Applebaum tells us which game the wise

767
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 4: guys are betting this.

768
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:55,840
Speaker 3: Week, the money talks and action apple Bomb is all ears.

769
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 3: This is the Sharp Report.

770
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 6: NFL Week sixteen. We are traveling to South Beach for

771
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:07,800
Speaker 6: a Florida Civil War between two disgusting teams, the Jacksonville

772
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 6: Jaguars and the Miami Dolphins. Recreational betters want nothing to

773
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:13,720
Speaker 6: do with this game, but sharp betters are finding value

774
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 6: in the over under. This game opened with an extremely

775
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,320
Speaker 6: low total of thirty nine and a half. Public betters

776
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 6: one mistake that they always make is just betting and

777
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 6: over because the total is low, or betting an under

778
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 6: just because the total is high. This is a spot

779
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:28,279
Speaker 6: where with such a low total, the public says it

780
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:31,520
Speaker 6: has to go over. However, sharps are buying low on

781
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 6: a contrarian sharp under in this spot. This total open

782
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:36,280
Speaker 6: at thirty nine and a half, and even though sixty

783
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:38,760
Speaker 6: percent of bets are going over, we've seen the total

784
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:40,880
Speaker 6: fall from thirty nine and a half down to thirty

785
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:42,720
Speaker 6: eight and a half or even thirty eight.

786
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 2: At some books.

787
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 1: What causes reverse line movement?

788
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 6: Sharp's getting down hard on the under, the unders only

789
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 6: getting forty three percent of bets but eighty five percent

790
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 6: of dollars. Clear indication here that the big sharp waigers

791
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,959
Speaker 6: from respected players are going under with average Joe's taking

792
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 6: a shot on the over. Using our sports Insights bet

793
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:01,799
Speaker 6: signals You've also seen huge bet signals steaming reverse line

794
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 6: moves on the under. As soon as the line came out,

795
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 6: Sharps hit the under thirty nine and a half. At

796
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 6: three separate books, Sharps came back again on the under

797
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:12,800
Speaker 6: thirty nine. This overload of sharp action caused that reverse

798
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:14,320
Speaker 6: line movement with that total to fall.

799
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 2: Also, does it.

800
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:16,879
Speaker 6: Hurt that you will have a little bit of wind

801
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 6: in this game. We're looking at win speeds crosswinds of

802
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:23,279
Speaker 6: between eight and nine miles per hour. Wind always helps

803
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 6: an under and makes it hard to throw the ball.

804
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:27,319
Speaker 6: A lot of running the ball, tuning up the clock.

805
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 6: And one cherry on top is that Jacksonville Jaguars and

806
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 6: Miami Dolphins are two of the slowest pace offenses in

807
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:37,359
Speaker 6: the league, ranking twenty fourth and thirtieth in terms of pace.

808
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 6: This means they run the ball a lot, they use

809
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,280
Speaker 6: up the play clock. Leads to a lot of unders.

810
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:42,760
Speaker 1: Seven.

811
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:45,439
Speaker 6: Though it's a super low total, Sharps still think it's

812
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 6: gonna go below. They'll be sweating that under in South

813
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:49,320
Speaker 6: Beach in week sixteen.

814
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:50,479
Speaker 1: All Right, that was Josh.

815
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:52,400
Speaker 4: Be sure to check out his article with the Sharp

816
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 4: Reports on the Action Network Chris, we are replacing the

817
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:58,399
Speaker 4: two minute drill with a look at the Saturday slate

818
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 4: from a DFS perspective, but start at the quarterback position.

819
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:05,759
Speaker 4: We have Philip Rivers versus three running quarterbacks. What are

820
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:07,320
Speaker 4: you looking to do at the quarterback position?

821
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,399
Speaker 5: Yeah, So it's tough because so Lamar Jackson, he has

822
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 5: the top projected plus minus in arminals, but he also

823
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 5: has the lowest floor.

824
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 2: It seems to be the case with him on a

825
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:17,720
Speaker 2: weekly basis.

826
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:20,880
Speaker 5: At this point, I do get it because I think

827
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 5: so Lamar has faced literally the five worst defenses in

828
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 5: terms of points allowed in the league and five of

829
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:31,840
Speaker 5: the six worst defenses in terms of overall defensive DVOA

830
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 5: in the league. In those five games, the Ravens have

831
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 5: scored twenty five point six points per game against defenses.

832
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 2: That collectively allow twenty eight point five.

833
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 5: So they've been about three points under what you'd expect,

834
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:46,279
Speaker 5: you know, given those defenses.

835
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:49,799
Speaker 2: So I think this could be kind of a lower

836
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,360
Speaker 2: another one of these lower scoring games. I don't I

837
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 2: don't love it. Although the Chargers.

838
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 5: Are they're weaker against the run than they are against

839
00:37:58,560 --> 00:37:59,240
Speaker 5: the pass.

840
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 2: So I think that Baltimore will.

841
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:03,720
Speaker 5: Still do what they do on the ground and probably

842
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 5: put up a lot of a lot of volume and

843
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 5: Lamar will be fine. But I think I think I

844
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 5: like Mariota the best you know in this in this spot,

845
00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 5: just because that the Washington defense not not really that formidable.

846
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:19,759
Speaker 5: Mariota runs a bit, so I think that's why you

847
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 5: like them over Rivers, especially against a defense like Baltimore.

848
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 5: And I just I really do worry about Lamar Jackson

849
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 5: and his efficiency. Not on running I think will be okay,

850
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 5: but you know, passing efficiency. You know, he's facing this

851
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 5: Chargers defense is just a lot better than than the

852
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 5: previous five he's faced, and if his passing efficiency is

853
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 5: already pretty bad, and so I think, if you know,

854
00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:49,799
Speaker 5: if this Chargers defense now is even better than what

855
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 5: he faced previously, that some of those you know, third

856
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 5: down conversions or whatnot, or plays that kept them ahead

857
00:38:57,560 --> 00:38:59,479
Speaker 5: of the chains to where they could run so much

858
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:02,799
Speaker 5: and stay on field might go away. And then it's

859
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,360
Speaker 5: like Lamar can have about a rush volume, but potentially

860
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 5: not as many cracks that at the end zone as

861
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 5: you like.

862
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 2: So that I just worry that.

863
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 5: That that this could be kind of like a back

864
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 5: to Earth game for for Lamar and so yeah, I

865
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 5: think I think I'm leaning Mariota at this point.

866
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 2: But it's an ugly slate, man.

867
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 4: It really is, but you're gonna play Nevertheless, he's running backs.

868
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:26,360
Speaker 4: Melvin Gordon, Derek Henry, Gus Edwards are some of the

869
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 4: guys kind of popping in our models and who can

870
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:30,359
Speaker 4: have higher ownership?

871
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:32,840
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on these guys.

872
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 2: So Melvin Gordon, I still like him.

873
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:37,959
Speaker 5: I mean, I know it's it's a two game slate,

874
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 5: so it'd be different if this was a full slate. Obviously,

875
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:44,920
Speaker 5: you know, going against a tough defense like the Baltimore

876
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 5: Ravens coming off.

877
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 2: A multi week injury.

878
00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 5: Not not an ideal spot overall for Melvin Gordon in

879
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 5: terms of spots. But it's a two game slate, so

880
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,320
Speaker 5: I think he's still you know, high, high steeling.

881
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 2: Is anyone else on the slate?

882
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:01,720
Speaker 5: So I do like him as a play Derreck Henry

883
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 5: this this this seems like it's going to be another

884
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:06,280
Speaker 5: one of those Derek Henry games. Tennessee has just figured

885
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:08,680
Speaker 5: out that, you know, that's how they that's how they

886
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 5: want to play in it. It looked for a minute

887
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:12,720
Speaker 5: like Dion Lewis was was going to give them their

888
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 5: best shot and Henry was going to be the odd

889
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 5: man out, and Lewis just kind of fell off and

890
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 5: Henry stepped up. And now they've switched to a very

891
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:26,800
Speaker 5: Henry centric offense. He got over thirty carries a week ago.

892
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 5: And this is another game. You know, they're favored, big,

893
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 5: low scoring a fair so it sets up for Henry

894
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:35,439
Speaker 5: to get the rock. He has thirty touch upside again,

895
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 5: so I see why he's priced up, and I still

896
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:41,400
Speaker 5: like him even even at that price. Gus Edwards is

897
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 5: I think you have the same concerns with Gus that

898
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 5: you have with Lamar Jackson. You know, Gus, he's essentially

899
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 5: one hundred percent reliance on rushing. He hasn't caught a

900
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:57,279
Speaker 5: pass yet with Lamar Jackson under center, And so if

901
00:40:57,719 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 5: you know, against the Chargers, this could be a game

902
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 5: where the game script is not you know, the game

903
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:05,319
Speaker 5: is not as in hand as it has been for

904
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 5: Baltimore or as close as it has been in these

905
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:10,239
Speaker 5: other games against these poor defenses. So I think that

906
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 5: Gus Edwards could potentially kind of get scripted out. This

907
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:15,839
Speaker 5: is the first real threat I think of Gus Edwards

908
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 5: getting scripted out of a game. We've also seen Baltimore

909
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:21,720
Speaker 5: make more and more of a commitment to Kenneth Dixon

910
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 5: and getting him on the field. His snat ray has

911
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:27,480
Speaker 5: been increasing these last couple of weeks. So Gus Edwards,

912
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:31,399
Speaker 5: you know, tournaments obviously at that price you like them

913
00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 5: for the for the projective volume, but I also think

914
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 5: that this is a lower floor spot for Edwards than

915
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 5: it has been these last few weeks.

916
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:41,800
Speaker 4: Okay, wide receivers here, it's basically I think for two groups,

917
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:44,600
Speaker 4: you have the good wide receivers aka the guys playing

918
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 4: for the Chargers, and then you have everyone else. But

919
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:51,360
Speaker 4: so Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams, how are you

920
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:53,320
Speaker 4: distinguishing between them?

921
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:53,960
Speaker 6: You know?

922
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:56,440
Speaker 5: So this is the one where it's it's more when

923
00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 5: you project the mic in Tyroll, they come out pretty close.

924
00:41:59,120 --> 00:41:59,279
Speaker 1: You know.

925
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:01,640
Speaker 5: Mike usually gets the edge because he's a better touchdown

926
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:05,359
Speaker 5: maker than Tyrell. Tyrell tends to go get a little

927
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 5: more downfield action and catches and whatnot. But Mike had

928
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:12,839
Speaker 5: an amazing game coming off an amazing game, and those

929
00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:15,320
Speaker 5: things always give me pause when you're not talking about

930
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:18,400
Speaker 5: like an Antonio Brown or a DeAndre Hoptman or somebody

931
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 5: like that. When you're talking about kind of a non

932
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 5: elite wide receiver coming off a huge game, what tends

933
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:27,359
Speaker 5: to happen is that the defensive coordinator kind of looks

934
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 5: at that and say, hey, we can't let this.

935
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 2: You know that happen again. And so I.

936
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:33,280
Speaker 5: Do worry a little bit, especially against a good defense

937
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:37,239
Speaker 5: in the Baltimore Ravens that does have cornerbacks that can

938
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 5: you match up with these guys. So I think I

939
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:43,240
Speaker 5: weaned Tyrell in terms of in terms of the pendum

940
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:47,040
Speaker 5: swinging towards him. Keenan Allen pretty iffy, but you know,

941
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:49,799
Speaker 5: his volume projection is just so high that again on

942
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 5: a two game slate, you have to give him consideration.

943
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:55,719
Speaker 2: Another guy like somewhat is Corey Davis.

944
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 5: You know, he's still a guy getting over thirty percent

945
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:03,720
Speaker 5: of Titan's arears and you know, not a very pass

946
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 5: heavy game script.

947
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 2: So that's really the only thing you worry about.

948
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 5: But I do think that he could have some success

949
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:12,840
Speaker 5: against this Washington secondary, you know, going against you know,

950
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:13,920
Speaker 5: Josh Norman or whatnot.

951
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 2: I don't think. I don't really, I'm not really scared

952
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 2: of that secondary at all.

953
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:18,279
Speaker 5: So I think Corey Davis, you know, I like Corey

954
00:43:18,360 --> 00:43:21,399
Speaker 5: Davis as a pivot, especially in in tournaments.

955
00:43:21,920 --> 00:43:24,120
Speaker 4: All right, and then let's talk about these height ends.

956
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 4: It's it's disgusting here Vernon Davis, Antonio Gates, Anthony Ferksher,

957
00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 4: and Mark Andrews. I mean, who would have thought, you know,

958
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:35,360
Speaker 4: Antonio Gates might be the best option in any slate,

959
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 4: but that that actually might be the case.

960
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:38,439
Speaker 1: I don't know what are you doing here?

961
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 2: I don't even know.

962
00:43:42,040 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 1: I don't I close your eyes and lock a player

963
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 1: in right.

964
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 2: Pretty much is hammer one.

965
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 5: I mean, because so Vernon Davis really didn't actually see

966
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:52,440
Speaker 5: playing really much of a playing time increase or a

967
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 5: target share increase without Jordan Reed in the last game.

968
00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:59,359
Speaker 5: And it's just, you know, the Redskins through twenty five

969
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 5: times last week. So it's just tough to kind of

970
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:05,600
Speaker 5: get behind a team that spreads the ball around at such.

971
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 2: A whole volumes with Davis.

972
00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 5: Then Mark Andrews has similar concerns for the Ravens, and

973
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:15,360
Speaker 5: the Chargers are excellent at defending tight ends. Ferkser, he's

974
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:18,719
Speaker 5: been hurt, I think by this new commitment to Derrick

975
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:21,839
Speaker 5: Henry as well, because you're obviously going, you know, run

976
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 5: heavier and.

977
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 2: Look at Ferks. You know, he didn't even have a

978
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 2: catch spatsk.

979
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 5: He did play kind of his usual third of the

980
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:31,560
Speaker 5: snaps or so, but did not have a catch. And

981
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:34,480
Speaker 5: we saw Luke Stocker, the other tight end, get a

982
00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 5: playing time increase, as did Michael Pruitt. And so I

983
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:41,000
Speaker 5: think this is at this point, if Tennessee is not

984
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 5: in comeback mode, which they don't project to be, there

985
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 5: their ten point ten and a half point favorites over

986
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:47,239
Speaker 5: the Redskins.

987
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:50,320
Speaker 2: I don't think Ferks really has a lot of upside because.

988
00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:52,440
Speaker 5: He's just not he's kind of a receiving specialist, and

989
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:55,240
Speaker 5: so yeah, that kind of leaves you with Antonio Gates.

990
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:58,920
Speaker 5: Is just the Ravens tend to be the weakest against

991
00:44:58,960 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 5: tight ends because again they do have Arln Humphrey, Jimmy Smith.

992
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:04,399
Speaker 5: You know, they have cornerbacks that they that they can

993
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 5: match up with, and defenses tend to target the or

994
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:10,400
Speaker 5: just have the most success with the tight end, you know,

995
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:14,279
Speaker 5: targeting tight ends against Baltimore. Baltimore is top seven in

996
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:17,239
Speaker 5: all against all positions, number one two and other wide

997
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 5: receivers and running backs, but they are twenty seventh in

998
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:24,360
Speaker 5: DVOA against tight ends, so that that just kind of

999
00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:27,200
Speaker 5: leaves you with gates by default. But it's it's I mean,

1000
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 5: it's ugly, okay.

1001
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:32,240
Speaker 4: Coming up is our third and long segment on lineup

1002
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:34,920
Speaker 4: building and slave strategy. Right after we checking with Johnny

1003
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:37,480
Speaker 4: Eween for some trem based sports betting insights.

1004
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 3: Good data is always in fashion. Here's John Ewing with

1005
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 3: trend of the week.

1006
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:50,600
Speaker 7: The Seattle Seahawks are eight and six but have outscored

1007
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 7: their opponents by seventy one points, which is the same

1008
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,239
Speaker 7: point differential as the ten and four Texans. By Pythagorean

1009
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 7: plus minus, which accounts for the points a team has

1010
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 7: scored and allowed. The Seahawk underperforming and late in the year,

1011
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:04,799
Speaker 7: it has been profitable to bet on these teams. Since

1012
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:07,319
Speaker 7: two thousand and three, teams with the winning record and

1013
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:10,399
Speaker 7: at positive Puthagreen plus minus like the Seahawks have gone

1014
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 7: one hundred and seventy six and one thirty nine. That's

1015
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:16,120
Speaker 7: a fifty six percent win rate against the spread in

1016
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:18,719
Speaker 7: December or later in the season. It's not just the

1017
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:21,319
Speaker 7: trends at point to value on Seattle. Either the Action

1018
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:24,880
Speaker 7: Network power rankings make the Seahawks a half point underdog

1019
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:28,280
Speaker 7: and the NFL simulations have the Seahawks winning on average

1020
00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:31,400
Speaker 7: by one point four points. Seattle is currently a two

1021
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 7: and a half point underdog at home to the Kansas

1022
00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 7: City Chiefs. I'm gonna wait until Sunday to place this bet,

1023
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:38,399
Speaker 7: hoping to get the key number of three.

1024
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:39,399
Speaker 1: All right, that was John.

1025
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:41,480
Speaker 4: Be sure to check out his sports betting articles each

1026
00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:45,319
Speaker 4: week at the Action Network, Chris Third and Long. Let's

1027
00:46:45,400 --> 00:46:48,160
Speaker 4: look at this slate specifically, let's look at the highest

1028
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:50,560
Speaker 4: owned players in our models, think about who we want

1029
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 4: a roster, who we might pivot away from, and who

1030
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:55,919
Speaker 4: we might pivot too. Let's start at quarterback. Andrew Locke

1031
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 4: right now is looking like the highest projected passer on

1032
00:46:59,560 --> 00:47:02,520
Speaker 4: the slate. He's a home favorite against the Giants, a

1033
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:05,240
Speaker 4: good spot for him historically as a home favorite.

1034
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:06,719
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on him?

1035
00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:09,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's a good spot for luck, you know,

1036
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 5: I think we talked about it a couple of weeks ago.

1037
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 5: The one thing about the coaches, they're excellent in situational football,

1038
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:18,840
Speaker 5: and so every once in a while you will get

1039
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 5: a dud out of Luck, just because if they're not

1040
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:24,719
Speaker 5: converting third downs or they don't you know, the kind

1041
00:47:24,719 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 5: of swings to the running game in the red zone

1042
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:29,160
Speaker 5: or something like that, he can lose some of his value.

1043
00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:32,320
Speaker 5: He's putting up crazy touchdown numbers for most of the season.

1044
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:35,319
Speaker 5: But I do love the spot for him at home

1045
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:37,839
Speaker 5: against the Giants. His number one wide receiver t Y Hilton,

1046
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 5: has a great matchup. The Giants rank dead last in

1047
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 5: DV away against number one receivers, and we know Ty

1048
00:47:43,880 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 5: always gets a bump at home, just produces better in

1049
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 5: that dome on.

1050
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 2: That fast truck. So I love the matter for Luck.

1051
00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:54,040
Speaker 5: I think that definitely going to be a core cash

1052
00:47:54,200 --> 00:47:57,160
Speaker 5: cash game option for me. You know, Nick Foles is

1053
00:47:57,200 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 5: the only quarterback on draft teams with the higher project

1054
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:03,319
Speaker 5: did plus minus down there at forty seven hundred. You know,

1055
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 5: I think you can He's so cheap that you can

1056
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:07,279
Speaker 5: probably get away with it.

1057
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:09,799
Speaker 2: Don't love him again just because I think that this

1058
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:11,239
Speaker 2: could be a.

1059
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 5: Lower scoring game, But those those are the two top

1060
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:16,640
Speaker 5: guys in our models, and I'm pretty much in lockstep

1061
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:16,880
Speaker 5: with that.

1062
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1063
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 4: Another guy who's projected for high ownership is Drew Brees.

1064
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 4: And you know, we talked about this game earlier. It's

1065
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:26,280
Speaker 4: kind of hard to know how to approach it given

1066
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:28,919
Speaker 4: that the Saints since market Ingram returned, and then also

1067
00:48:28,960 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 4: since this defense is really toughened up, they have really

1068
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:35,560
Speaker 4: skewed towards the run, and that is seriously impacted the

1069
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 4: number of attempts per game that Drew Brees is getting.

1070
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:40,239
Speaker 4: What are you doing with this game or with with

1071
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 4: Drew Brees.

1072
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't think you can play Drew Brees in

1073
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 5: cash games right now.

1074
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:45,719
Speaker 2: I know that he has.

1075
00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:48,279
Speaker 5: You know, some people will point to the home roads

1076
00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:51,360
Speaker 5: with and I think those, you know, those are obviously important.

1077
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 5: I think they'll definitely play better at home, because every

1078
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:57,759
Speaker 5: NFL team essentially you know, over the long term, will

1079
00:48:57,800 --> 00:48:58,919
Speaker 5: play better at home.

1080
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:01,319
Speaker 2: But I mean, you hit it.

1081
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:04,719
Speaker 5: It's the pass attempts have not been there twenty nine

1082
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 5: point four over the last ten games with mark Ingram

1083
00:49:08,520 --> 00:49:11,560
Speaker 5: compared to forty point eight in their first four games.

1084
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 5: And so you know what's really jumped up is that

1085
00:49:13,800 --> 00:49:16,919
Speaker 5: running volume thirty three run attempts per game over those

1086
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 5: last ten games with Ingram versus twenty three point eight

1087
00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:23,959
Speaker 5: before win Ingram was still on suspension. So the one

1088
00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:28,239
Speaker 5: thing I think is that that the slow starts it's

1089
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:31,120
Speaker 5: become you know, Sean Payton is aware of it. They

1090
00:49:31,160 --> 00:49:33,759
Speaker 5: the media has been interviewing him and asking him about it.

1091
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:36,560
Speaker 5: I almost wonder if back at home they are a

1092
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:39,440
Speaker 5: little bit more aggressive here. So I do think that,

1093
00:49:39,520 --> 00:49:41,280
Speaker 5: you know, from that angle, if you're looking for an angle

1094
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:43,239
Speaker 5: to play Breeze, that that could be it. But I

1095
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 5: still think you want to leave them for tournaments because

1096
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:48,239
Speaker 5: I mean, twenty nine point four pass attempts per game,

1097
00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:52,960
Speaker 5: you have to be incredibly efficient to you know, return

1098
00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 5: value with that projected volume. And we saw the Steelers

1099
00:49:56,640 --> 00:49:59,480
Speaker 5: kind of keep keep Tom Brady with a full arsenal

1100
00:49:59,560 --> 00:50:03,360
Speaker 5: weapons down last week. Granted that was in Pittsburgh, But

1101
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:06,160
Speaker 5: I do have concerns about Breeze for cash.

1102
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:08,239
Speaker 2: I would I would, I wait, I wouldn't do it.

1103
00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 1: Okay, running Backs Ezekiel Elliott. He's he's the.

1104
00:50:12,000 --> 00:50:15,080
Speaker 4: Main guy really popping in our models, and I think

1105
00:50:15,320 --> 00:50:18,320
Speaker 4: I should mention that he's also standing out in our rankings,

1106
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:21,720
Speaker 4: which you can find those of course at actionnetwork dot com.

1107
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 1: Slash Fantasy. Ezekiel Elliott.

1108
00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 4: We talked about him, great spot for him as a

1109
00:50:26,680 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 4: home favorite going against the Bucks. And again check out

1110
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:33,480
Speaker 4: Anthony Miko's article where he really highlights that matchup between

1111
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:37,400
Speaker 4: Ezekiel Elliott and the Bucks run defense. Chris, what are

1112
00:50:37,440 --> 00:50:38,760
Speaker 4: you doing with Ezekiel Elliott?

1113
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:42,040
Speaker 5: A lot of these weeks lately, there's been value at

1114
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:45,279
Speaker 5: the wide receiver position, and that's kind of helped you

1115
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:48,279
Speaker 5: to jam in you know, running backs. If he's so

1116
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:51,520
Speaker 5: true Now it doesn't always work out, AKA look at

1117
00:50:51,520 --> 00:50:54,120
Speaker 5: sa Kwon Barkley last week, but I do think Zeke

1118
00:50:54,200 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 5: is a guy that's given this matchup, you do want

1119
00:50:57,120 --> 00:51:00,000
Speaker 5: to to jam in, you know, Cowboys in a month

1120
00:51:00,120 --> 00:51:02,000
Speaker 5: win spot, and I think when you go back to

1121
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:04,680
Speaker 5: what you do best in those kinds of situations, and

1122
00:51:05,120 --> 00:51:07,080
Speaker 5: I think they will feed him the ball and the

1123
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:11,680
Speaker 5: matchup is there. Also love Christian McCaffrey, even without Cam

1124
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:14,600
Speaker 5: Newton as a quarterback for the Panthers, because I think

1125
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:17,160
Speaker 5: McCaffrey's the one guy that's still gonna get He's gonna

1126
00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:20,000
Speaker 5: get as much as much action as he as he

1127
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:22,839
Speaker 5: can take. You know, like they're going to just I

1128
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:27,400
Speaker 5: mean whether it's handoffs, you know, targets, it really doesn't

1129
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:30,279
Speaker 5: make sense for the Panthers to do anything but give

1130
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:33,680
Speaker 5: Christian mccallarry as McCaffrey, excuse me, as many touches as

1131
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:36,000
Speaker 5: they possibly can. And he's already been that guy, I

1132
00:51:36,000 --> 00:51:41,120
Speaker 5: mean playing every snap essentially going back with he won two, three, four,

1133
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:42,600
Speaker 5: five five the.

1134
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:46,400
Speaker 2: Last five games. Christian mccaffy's played every snap. So those two.

1135
00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:50,600
Speaker 5: Guys are definitely the priorities for me this week, probably

1136
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:54,880
Speaker 5: you know, over Todd Gurley, just because Gurley popping up

1137
00:51:54,920 --> 00:51:57,880
Speaker 5: on the injury report mentioned that the Rams offense a

1138
00:51:57,880 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 5: little less efficient without Cooper Cook, Garrett Goff. Yard per

1139
00:52:01,560 --> 00:52:04,720
Speaker 5: attempt is down, as I tweeted out the other day,

1140
00:52:04,920 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 5: and so you know, Gurley really feasts because he scored

1141
00:52:08,080 --> 00:52:10,960
Speaker 5: a ton of touchdowns, and with the Rams offense not

1142
00:52:11,520 --> 00:52:14,800
Speaker 5: producing optimally, then you know that kind of lowers his

1143
00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:17,960
Speaker 5: touchdown production a bit. And also you know Groley not

1144
00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 5: catching quite as many passes this year either, And so

1145
00:52:20,600 --> 00:52:24,200
Speaker 5: I think Zeke and McCaffrey or my my clearcut top two,

1146
00:52:24,239 --> 00:52:26,520
Speaker 5: and then you have you know, Barkley, and Barkley's at

1147
00:52:26,560 --> 00:52:28,960
Speaker 5: a really good price seventy nine hundred on draftings, so

1148
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:31,080
Speaker 5: you're you're always going to look at him at that price,

1149
00:52:31,080 --> 00:52:31,640
Speaker 5: but grow he is.

1150
00:52:31,600 --> 00:52:33,719
Speaker 2: The guy that probably an odd man out keep him

1151
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:34,720
Speaker 2: for tournaments.

1152
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:38,200
Speaker 4: This week, Yeah, Christian McCarey was a great slip because

1153
00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:41,799
Speaker 4: I think he will be Christian McCarey. And then he's

1154
00:52:41,800 --> 00:52:45,680
Speaker 4: going against the Falcons, who you know, like we know this,

1155
00:52:45,760 --> 00:52:49,400
Speaker 4: it's just the trend, like they hemorrhage receptions to running backs.

1156
00:52:49,680 --> 00:52:52,279
Speaker 4: In Week two, I believe when they played, he had

1157
00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:56,200
Speaker 4: fourteen receptions for over one hundred yards, So a great

1158
00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 4: spot for him. Obviously, he's probably not going to see

1159
00:52:58,080 --> 00:53:00,440
Speaker 4: that type of usage again, but we should expect still

1160
00:53:00,560 --> 00:53:03,520
Speaker 4: to see him heavily used both as a runner and

1161
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:06,439
Speaker 4: as a receiver, so a good all around spot for him.

1162
00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 4: Let's talk about the wide receivers. Julian Edelman. We are

1163
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:14,000
Speaker 4: projecting him now for higher ownership with Josh Gordon no

1164
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:18,280
Speaker 4: longer playing football, so what are you doing with Julian Edelman.

1165
00:53:18,640 --> 00:53:21,440
Speaker 5: I mean he's been even with Gordon in a lineup

1166
00:53:21,800 --> 00:53:25,239
Speaker 5: Julian Edelman and grand here for much of the time

1167
00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:25,600
Speaker 5: as well.

1168
00:53:25,600 --> 00:53:27,320
Speaker 2: You know, Julian Edelman has still been.

1169
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:31,200
Speaker 5: That go to guy for Tom Brady as you would expect,

1170
00:53:31,520 --> 00:53:34,640
Speaker 5: so I see no problem with playing him in cash.

1171
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:38,880
Speaker 5: The builds that I end up on may feature to

1172
00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:41,319
Speaker 5: those stud running backs and that would be the only

1173
00:53:41,400 --> 00:53:44,279
Speaker 5: reason I would probably end up not playing Edelman. But

1174
00:53:44,360 --> 00:53:46,879
Speaker 5: if I go with a more balanced approach, I think

1175
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:49,440
Speaker 5: Edelman is definitely at the top of the list as

1176
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:52,520
Speaker 5: far as guys that you want to play in cash

1177
00:53:52,600 --> 00:53:54,560
Speaker 5: is because of the floor. I mean, the floor is

1178
00:53:54,600 --> 00:53:56,799
Speaker 5: really high, and you know that's not the case for

1179
00:53:56,800 --> 00:53:57,600
Speaker 5: a lot of these other guys.

1180
00:53:57,600 --> 00:53:59,120
Speaker 2: He's got the top the.

1181
00:53:59,080 --> 00:54:02,319
Speaker 5: Sixth best floor in our models, seventy two hundred. That's

1182
00:54:02,320 --> 00:54:05,240
Speaker 5: a that's a pretty good price for that. So like

1183
00:54:05,239 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 5: like Edelman a lot this week if you're going with

1184
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:10,080
Speaker 5: the receiver in that price range.

1185
00:54:10,280 --> 00:54:13,319
Speaker 4: Okay, you mentioned t Y Hilton earlier when talking about

1186
00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:15,800
Speaker 4: Andrew Locke. Good spot for him as a home favorite

1187
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:18,840
Speaker 4: going against the Giants who have been historically weak or

1188
00:54:18,920 --> 00:54:21,680
Speaker 4: this season at least against number one wide receivers. And

1189
00:54:21,719 --> 00:54:25,719
Speaker 4: then Julio Jones at Carolina as someone we're projecting for

1190
00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:28,000
Speaker 4: high ownership, how are you approaching them?

1191
00:54:28,960 --> 00:54:31,319
Speaker 5: Well, the only thing with tbot so right now he's

1192
00:54:31,480 --> 00:54:35,360
Speaker 5: on he's on an injury report. Did not practice right Thursday.

1193
00:54:35,880 --> 00:54:38,200
Speaker 5: I think he's not one hundred percent healthy. He's still

1194
00:54:38,239 --> 00:54:40,440
Speaker 5: great matchup for him, but I just prefer to leave

1195
00:54:40,520 --> 00:54:43,279
Speaker 5: him for tournaments just because of you know, that kind

1196
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:43,960
Speaker 5: of uncertainty.

1197
00:54:44,200 --> 00:54:48,799
Speaker 2: See any real reason to take that risk in cash games. Yeah,

1198
00:54:48,800 --> 00:54:49,080
Speaker 2: and then.

1199
00:54:49,080 --> 00:54:51,759
Speaker 5: Julio Jones, he's another guy in the injury report. I

1200
00:54:51,800 --> 00:54:54,600
Speaker 5: think he should He's fine though as far as as

1201
00:54:54,600 --> 00:54:59,320
Speaker 5: far as we know, he historically has dominated Carolina. However,

1202
00:54:59,800 --> 00:55:02,759
Speaker 5: the one thing that's interesting is touched on this a

1203
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:06,680
Speaker 5: little bit with Ian previewing the Saints game last week

1204
00:55:06,719 --> 00:55:10,799
Speaker 5: on the On the Monday Pod. But Panthers are number

1205
00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:13,839
Speaker 5: four in DVO against number one wide receivers and their

1206
00:55:13,880 --> 00:55:16,360
Speaker 5: number thirty one against number two receivers.

1207
00:55:15,920 --> 00:55:18,840
Speaker 2: So usually the number one guy has not been the

1208
00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:19,560
Speaker 2: guy to go off.

1209
00:55:19,560 --> 00:55:21,640
Speaker 5: We kind of saw them hold Michael Thomas and check

1210
00:55:22,280 --> 00:55:25,160
Speaker 5: last week where you getting. I think it was seven

1211
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:29,319
Speaker 5: catches forty nine yards for Thomas, So you know, you

1212
00:55:29,360 --> 00:55:30,560
Speaker 5: worry a little bit about Julio.

1213
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:31,759
Speaker 2: But at the end of the day, I.

1214
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:34,880
Speaker 5: Mean, Julio has been a monster all season long, so

1215
00:55:35,239 --> 00:55:38,120
Speaker 5: I don't I don't hate the play. I think I'm

1216
00:55:38,160 --> 00:55:42,200
Speaker 5: going to restrict him to tournaments though, just because of

1217
00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:44,440
Speaker 5: you know, Ron Rivera's kind of taken over this defense.

1218
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:45,560
Speaker 2: They could be doing different things.

1219
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:47,600
Speaker 5: I mean they so we know they might, you know,

1220
00:55:47,640 --> 00:55:49,799
Speaker 5: triple teamers and just another one of those things that

1221
00:55:49,840 --> 00:55:52,040
Speaker 5: in cash games. I don't I don't feel like, you know,

1222
00:55:52,080 --> 00:55:54,040
Speaker 5: he's so expensive that I don't feel like you really

1223
00:55:54,760 --> 00:55:57,080
Speaker 5: need to end up there at wide receiver in this

1224
00:55:57,160 --> 00:55:59,080
Speaker 5: kind of week when you have you know, three three

1225
00:55:59,080 --> 00:56:03,040
Speaker 5: fourth stud running back that essentially will have higher floors

1226
00:56:03,040 --> 00:56:04,560
Speaker 5: just because of the position they play.

1227
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:07,319
Speaker 1: Okay, let's talk about tight ends.

1228
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:10,640
Speaker 4: There are four guys who are projecting to have elevated

1229
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:13,439
Speaker 4: ownership relative to the rest of the field, Zach Ertz,

1230
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:17,239
Speaker 4: George Kittle, and then Eric Ebron and Evan Ingram going

1231
00:56:17,239 --> 00:56:18,840
Speaker 4: against each other and what I am calling the E

1232
00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:23,200
Speaker 4: squared squared matchup. How are you distinguishing between these four guys.

1233
00:56:24,000 --> 00:56:28,720
Speaker 5: Well, you know, tight end tends to be a position

1234
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:32,360
Speaker 5: where you want to pay down. So from that perspective,

1235
00:56:32,400 --> 00:56:36,479
Speaker 5: I think Ingram would be the guy. Because it looks

1236
00:56:36,520 --> 00:56:38,920
Speaker 5: like Odell Beckham's going to miss another game. Some of

1237
00:56:38,960 --> 00:56:41,560
Speaker 5: the other Giants receivers popping up on the injury report

1238
00:56:41,560 --> 00:56:41,959
Speaker 5: as well.

1239
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:44,440
Speaker 2: Ingram has been a lot more.

1240
00:56:44,280 --> 00:56:48,279
Speaker 5: Involved over since coming back, well, since Beckham really had

1241
00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:50,440
Speaker 5: started to miss games. You know, he wasn't that involved

1242
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:53,720
Speaker 5: earlier in the season as you might expect, But now

1243
00:56:53,880 --> 00:56:56,200
Speaker 5: he's coming on strong, and I think he's in a

1244
00:56:56,200 --> 00:56:58,560
Speaker 5: good spot, so I leaned toward him.

1245
00:56:58,560 --> 00:57:01,480
Speaker 2: But from a projection standpoint, I think.

1246
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:05,040
Speaker 5: There are there is more value on the most value

1247
00:57:05,120 --> 00:57:07,640
Speaker 5: on Earth because you know he's sitting here at fifty

1248
00:57:07,719 --> 00:57:13,120
Speaker 5: nine hundred, and that his projected plus minus is in

1249
00:57:13,160 --> 00:57:19,480
Speaker 5: our models on Fantasy Labs dot com slash NFL, then

1250
00:57:19,920 --> 00:57:21,160
Speaker 5: it's it's point.

1251
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:24,800
Speaker 2: And a half more than any other tight end on

1252
00:57:24,840 --> 00:57:25,240
Speaker 2: the slate.

1253
00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:29,160
Speaker 5: So I actually probably will end up with earths and

1254
00:57:29,480 --> 00:57:32,480
Speaker 5: Ingram mixed, but actually more ERTs because as I've been

1255
00:57:32,520 --> 00:57:35,160
Speaker 5: talking about in the breakdowns that I do over at labs,

1256
00:57:35,480 --> 00:57:38,440
Speaker 5: weitly you know, you can kind of use our projections,

1257
00:57:38,440 --> 00:57:42,440
Speaker 5: you know, whether it's projected plus minus and then projected

1258
00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:44,760
Speaker 5: points per dollar. We have you know, all of it

1259
00:57:44,800 --> 00:57:47,160
Speaker 5: in our database with the trends tool, and you can

1260
00:57:47,240 --> 00:57:49,840
Speaker 5: kind of use it to tier players and find where

1261
00:57:49,680 --> 00:57:51,280
Speaker 5: the distinctions why, and.

1262
00:57:51,560 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 2: You know, when you have a guy with that much separation.

1263
00:57:54,240 --> 00:57:56,280
Speaker 5: In those in those projects and that projected point per

1264
00:57:56,360 --> 00:57:58,600
Speaker 5: dollar and projective plus minus.

1265
00:57:58,080 --> 00:57:59,880
Speaker 2: At tight end, especially on Draftking.

1266
00:58:00,920 --> 00:58:04,800
Speaker 5: They just have such elevated consistency relative to kind of

1267
00:58:04,600 --> 00:58:08,080
Speaker 5: the tier under them that Erch really stands out here

1268
00:58:08,160 --> 00:58:09,520
Speaker 5: as a smash play.

1269
00:58:10,160 --> 00:58:12,640
Speaker 4: Okay, we're going to close out the show with our

1270
00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:15,920
Speaker 4: fourth and Goal segment previewing Sunday Night Football. But first

1271
00:58:16,000 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 4: let's kick it in. Hart It who runs through the

1272
00:58:17,760 --> 00:58:21,320
Speaker 4: key week sixteen coverage situations.

1273
00:58:22,360 --> 00:58:27,160
Speaker 3: The press, the jam, and the five yard bump. Ian

1274
00:58:27,320 --> 00:58:33,560
Speaker 3: Harten springs you dance of the divas.

1275
00:58:33,920 --> 00:58:36,280
Speaker 8: The first key wide receiver cornerback shadow match, but Week

1276
00:58:36,360 --> 00:58:39,320
Speaker 8: sixteen is Corey Davis for Josh Norman. It's a winnable

1277
00:58:39,400 --> 00:58:42,280
Speaker 8: matchup for Davis because of Washington's zone heavy scheme, but

1278
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:45,040
Speaker 8: Taiwan Taylor is actually out targeted the titans number one

1279
00:58:45,080 --> 00:58:47,960
Speaker 8: receiver over the last three weeks. Stefan Diggs will face

1280
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:51,000
Speaker 8: off at Darius Slave. Diggs has historically warm this matchup,

1281
00:58:51,080 --> 00:58:53,360
Speaker 8: but volume could be a concern after Kirk Cousins through

1282
00:58:53,360 --> 00:58:55,920
Speaker 8: a season low twenty one passes last week and his

1283
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:58,840
Speaker 8: first game from the offensive coordinator. Kenny Galladay will take

1284
00:58:58,880 --> 00:59:02,400
Speaker 8: on Xavier Rhoads. Galladay defeated Tredaevius White last week and

1285
00:59:02,440 --> 00:59:04,840
Speaker 8: has now gained at least ninety yards and or scored

1286
00:59:04,840 --> 00:59:06,760
Speaker 8: a touchdown in nine of eleven games with more than

1287
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 8: five targets. But Xavier Road is a big bodied beast

1288
00:59:09,800 --> 00:59:12,160
Speaker 8: plenty capable of shutting down any receiver in the league.

1289
00:59:12,320 --> 00:59:15,400
Speaker 8: Jay Jones or Stefan Gilmour, maybe the Patriots won't even

1290
00:59:15,440 --> 00:59:18,400
Speaker 8: bother with this, but Gilmour did shadow Jones last season

1291
00:59:18,400 --> 00:59:22,080
Speaker 8: with Covien Benjamin sidelined, and former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt

1292
00:59:22,120 --> 00:59:25,520
Speaker 8: Patricia used Darius Slater's shadow Jones as opposed to Robert

1293
00:59:25,600 --> 00:59:28,640
Speaker 8: Foster in Week fifteen. Julio Jones will face off with

1294
00:59:28,720 --> 00:59:31,640
Speaker 8: James Bradberry. Julio's banged up with ribs and hip injuries,

1295
00:59:31,680 --> 00:59:33,720
Speaker 8: but he's set up pretty well against the Panthers' twenty

1296
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:37,600
Speaker 8: eighth ranked defense and passed Dvay. He's been playing successful

1297
00:59:37,600 --> 00:59:40,400
Speaker 8: against them since they traded Josh Norman, including that three

1298
00:59:40,480 --> 00:59:43,680
Speaker 8: hundred yard game partially at the hands of Bradbury. Antonio

1299
00:59:43,680 --> 00:59:46,120
Speaker 8: Brown will face off with Marshawn Lottimore. Saints have run

1300
00:59:46,200 --> 00:59:48,480
Speaker 8: some different shadow schemes over the year, but Latimore and

1301
00:59:48,480 --> 00:59:51,520
Speaker 8: Apple haven't moved into the slot under any circumstances hardly

1302
00:59:51,680 --> 00:59:53,919
Speaker 8: Simon's Jujus Smith Schuster should run most of those routes

1303
00:59:53,920 --> 00:59:54,720
Speaker 8: against liability.

1304
00:59:54,760 --> 00:59:55,000
Speaker 1: PJ.

1305
00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:58,360
Speaker 8: Williams. Michael Thomas will face off with Joe Hayden, Thomas's

1306
00:59:58,440 --> 01:00:01,040
Speaker 8: matchup proof at home, but we have I seen Hayden

1307
01:00:01,160 --> 01:00:04,120
Speaker 8: really kind of win matchups against Hopkins, Julio, AJ Green,

1308
01:00:04,480 --> 01:00:06,880
Speaker 8: et cetera over the years. My favorite matchup of the

1309
01:00:06,920 --> 01:00:08,920
Speaker 8: week is t Y Hilton. Make sure you monts are

1310
01:00:08,960 --> 01:00:10,840
Speaker 8: a week sixteen injury report to make sure his ankle

1311
01:00:10,920 --> 01:00:13,440
Speaker 8: is okay. We got Andrew Luckx, number one receiver facing

1312
01:00:13,440 --> 01:00:16,760
Speaker 8: the Giants number thirty two rank defense in DVOA versus

1313
01:00:16,880 --> 01:00:19,680
Speaker 8: number one receivers at home. Hilton has averaged eighty five

1314
01:00:19,720 --> 01:00:22,200
Speaker 8: point four yards and zero point four to seven touchdowns

1315
01:00:22,240 --> 01:00:25,760
Speaker 8: per game indors in his career, compared to just sixty

1316
01:00:25,760 --> 01:00:28,120
Speaker 8: one yards and zero point two to eight touchdowns per

1317
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:29,080
Speaker 8: game outdoors.

1318
01:00:29,480 --> 01:00:30,320
Speaker 1: All right, that was ian.

1319
01:00:30,440 --> 01:00:33,640
Speaker 4: Be sure to check out his wide receiver cornerback matchup

1320
01:00:33,680 --> 01:00:37,960
Speaker 4: column at the Action Network. Chris Sunday Night Football the

1321
01:00:38,040 --> 01:00:41,000
Speaker 4: Chiefs at the Seahawks. Chiefs favored by two and a

1322
01:00:41,000 --> 01:00:44,000
Speaker 4: half a fifty three point five over under. The super

1323
01:00:44,040 --> 01:00:46,320
Speaker 4: majority of the money is on the Chiefs over ninety

1324
01:00:46,360 --> 01:00:49,120
Speaker 4: percent of the money is on the over. The Chiefs

1325
01:00:49,120 --> 01:00:51,920
Speaker 4: are coming off of a last second Thursday Night football

1326
01:00:51,960 --> 01:00:54,200
Speaker 4: lost to the Chargers, but they are still slated for

1327
01:00:54,240 --> 01:00:56,320
Speaker 4: the number one seed in the AFC. They need a

1328
01:00:56,360 --> 01:00:58,880
Speaker 4: win to stay ahead of the Chargers. The Seahawks are

1329
01:00:58,880 --> 01:01:01,560
Speaker 4: eight and six. They're looking to lock in their playoff

1330
01:01:01,600 --> 01:01:04,200
Speaker 4: spot with a win. They had a tough overtime road

1331
01:01:04,280 --> 01:01:06,040
Speaker 4: loss to the forty nine ers last week, but they

1332
01:01:06,040 --> 01:01:09,680
Speaker 4: have won four of their past five games. How are

1333
01:01:09,720 --> 01:01:10,560
Speaker 4: you approaching this?

1334
01:01:11,440 --> 01:01:15,800
Speaker 5: So, you know, Seattle coming off lost to a clearly

1335
01:01:15,800 --> 01:01:20,640
Speaker 5: better team in the San Francisco forty nine Ers discussed.

1336
01:01:21,840 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 1: Discuss no, but you.

1337
01:01:24,240 --> 01:01:28,000
Speaker 5: Know, seriously, now that kind of speaks to my concerns

1338
01:01:28,160 --> 01:01:31,160
Speaker 5: about Seattle in general, was that this team is a

1339
01:01:31,200 --> 01:01:35,840
Speaker 5: team that very reliant on Russell Wilson still, even though

1340
01:01:35,840 --> 01:01:37,800
Speaker 5: it kind of seems like, hey, they're running the ball more.

1341
01:01:38,120 --> 01:01:40,600
Speaker 5: That's kind of been the key for them, and it has.

1342
01:01:40,680 --> 01:01:42,560
Speaker 5: But at the end of the day, this is a

1343
01:01:42,600 --> 01:01:46,240
Speaker 5: team that's not quite i think, as good as public perception.

1344
01:01:46,320 --> 01:01:49,160
Speaker 5: They're just they just have a really really good quarterback

1345
01:01:49,240 --> 01:01:51,320
Speaker 5: and that's always going to help a ton in their

1346
01:01:51,360 --> 01:01:54,320
Speaker 5: run game. Obviously has excellent Chris Carson love him in

1347
01:01:54,800 --> 01:01:58,320
Speaker 5: all formats of Fantasy, DFS, props, whatever it is.

1348
01:01:58,600 --> 01:02:00,440
Speaker 2: This weekend, I think he's matches.

1349
01:02:00,840 --> 01:02:03,920
Speaker 5: But just in terms of Seattle, so on offense, you know,

1350
01:02:03,960 --> 01:02:06,960
Speaker 5: first downs per play very predictive when it comes to

1351
01:02:07,360 --> 01:02:10,920
Speaker 5: predicted looking at point differential and you know the correlation,

1352
01:02:11,400 --> 01:02:13,200
Speaker 5: it's point six.

1353
01:02:13,520 --> 01:02:14,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, so point six.

1354
01:02:14,440 --> 01:02:17,960
Speaker 5: So so like that's a very high correlation in terms

1355
01:02:18,000 --> 01:02:22,960
Speaker 5: of point differential. And so Seattle's only eighteenth in first

1356
01:02:23,000 --> 01:02:26,040
Speaker 5: downs per play on offense, and that's because they run

1357
01:02:26,080 --> 01:02:28,600
Speaker 5: the ball. But against a team like the Chiefs, you're

1358
01:02:28,600 --> 01:02:31,520
Speaker 5: a little concerned about that. And the same thing with

1359
01:02:31,560 --> 01:02:34,960
Speaker 5: them going against San Francisco, where San Francisco was actually superior.

1360
01:02:35,520 --> 01:02:37,600
Speaker 5: They were up there at ninth in that same metric.

1361
01:02:37,800 --> 01:02:40,760
Speaker 5: Kansas City is number one in that matchric. And so

1362
01:02:41,320 --> 01:02:43,560
Speaker 5: I think that Seattle, you know they'll be able to

1363
01:02:43,600 --> 01:02:45,200
Speaker 5: run the ball and have a lot of success because

1364
01:02:45,280 --> 01:02:49,520
Speaker 5: Kansas City's defensive weakness is the run game. But we

1365
01:02:49,600 --> 01:02:52,360
Speaker 5: also know that Kansas City is going to be able

1366
01:02:52,360 --> 01:02:54,200
Speaker 5: to put up points. I don't think that's any question,

1367
01:02:54,480 --> 01:02:56,960
Speaker 5: and I just think that it's a little too much

1368
01:02:57,280 --> 01:03:00,360
Speaker 5: for Seattle to hang with them and ultimately pull out

1369
01:03:00,360 --> 01:03:02,480
Speaker 5: the victory. So I like Kansas City at the two

1370
01:03:02,480 --> 01:03:05,400
Speaker 5: point five. I think it should be three. Probably some

1371
01:03:05,480 --> 01:03:08,640
Speaker 5: sharps disagree because it hasn't moved to three yet even

1372
01:03:08,680 --> 01:03:12,200
Speaker 5: though there has been a lot of action on Kansas City.

1373
01:03:12,240 --> 01:03:14,160
Speaker 2: But I'm going with Casey here.

1374
01:03:14,320 --> 01:03:17,080
Speaker 5: I think they just have an advantage, you know, on

1375
01:03:17,280 --> 01:03:19,000
Speaker 5: offense overall against Seattle.

1376
01:03:19,360 --> 01:03:22,760
Speaker 4: Okay, I agree with a lot of what you said,

1377
01:03:23,160 --> 01:03:27,760
Speaker 4: but I'm having trouble taking Kansas City on the road

1378
01:03:28,520 --> 01:03:31,760
Speaker 4: in this spot. I don't want to bet against the

1379
01:03:31,800 --> 01:03:34,600
Speaker 4: Seahawks in Seattle. I just kind of don't want to

1380
01:03:34,640 --> 01:03:36,919
Speaker 4: do it. But at the same time, I don't really

1381
01:03:36,960 --> 01:03:40,240
Speaker 4: want to take them if it's just two and a half,

1382
01:03:40,360 --> 01:03:42,000
Speaker 4: you know what I mean, Like, I want to take

1383
01:03:42,040 --> 01:03:45,200
Speaker 4: them if it's plus three. But I do feel confident

1384
01:03:45,280 --> 01:03:48,880
Speaker 4: because of what you mentioned that Kansas City is vulnerable

1385
01:03:49,160 --> 01:03:52,440
Speaker 4: against the run and that is where Seattle is at

1386
01:03:52,480 --> 01:03:55,000
Speaker 4: its best, or at least what they are fully committed to.

1387
01:03:55,480 --> 01:03:57,640
Speaker 4: I do think Seattle will be able to score points

1388
01:03:58,400 --> 01:04:02,200
Speaker 4: against Kansas City's defense. So I'm I'm taking Seattle over

1389
01:04:02,400 --> 01:04:06,000
Speaker 4: twenty six, but I do think this game could go

1390
01:04:06,200 --> 01:04:09,040
Speaker 4: over by Kansas City scoring a lot of points too.

1391
01:04:09,920 --> 01:04:11,720
Speaker 1: I just it's it's.

1392
01:04:11,560 --> 01:04:13,800
Speaker 4: A situation where I could see it being a tight

1393
01:04:13,880 --> 01:04:16,480
Speaker 4: game either way, and I kind of don't want to

1394
01:04:16,600 --> 01:04:19,160
Speaker 4: have to pick a side on that, but I do

1395
01:04:19,200 --> 01:04:21,520
Speaker 4: feel as if San Francisco, sorry now San Francisco.

1396
01:04:22,920 --> 01:04:24,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, they are in my head.

1397
01:04:24,600 --> 01:04:27,080
Speaker 4: I think as if Seattle should be able to to

1398
01:04:27,080 --> 01:04:28,480
Speaker 4: put up twenty six points.

1399
01:04:28,760 --> 01:04:29,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair.

1400
01:04:29,320 --> 01:04:31,480
Speaker 5: I mean i'd probably, I'd probably go with the with

1401
01:04:31,520 --> 01:04:33,200
Speaker 5: the over in this game, so you don't. You don't

1402
01:04:33,280 --> 01:04:36,200
Speaker 5: love to do it when with such a run heavy

1403
01:04:36,200 --> 01:04:38,480
Speaker 5: team like Seattle. But we've seen them, you know, in

1404
01:04:38,560 --> 01:04:40,080
Speaker 5: games against the rams A. I think it was a

1405
01:04:40,080 --> 01:04:42,240
Speaker 5: thirty three to thirty one game. So we've seen them

1406
01:04:42,280 --> 01:04:47,720
Speaker 5: against premier offenses end up in these higher scoring shootouts.

1407
01:04:47,720 --> 01:04:50,160
Speaker 2: So I think I'm fine with you know, playing that

1408
01:04:50,240 --> 01:04:50,560
Speaker 2: as well.

1409
01:04:50,760 --> 01:04:53,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you mentioned earlier Chris Carson uh and looking

1410
01:04:53,880 --> 01:04:57,160
Speaker 4: at his props, I totally agree with that. And on

1411
01:04:57,200 --> 01:04:59,320
Speaker 4: that note, I should mention you should check out our

1412
01:04:59,360 --> 01:05:02,240
Speaker 4: Fantasy Laps props tool, which is powered by our industry

1413
01:05:02,280 --> 01:05:05,520
Speaker 4: leading projections created by Sean Corner aka the Odds Maker.

1414
01:05:05,760 --> 01:05:07,920
Speaker 4: This season, the NFL props with the back quality of

1415
01:05:07,960 --> 01:05:11,000
Speaker 4: ten have hit sixty seven percent of the time.

1416
01:05:11,600 --> 01:05:12,840
Speaker 1: Pretty good. Pretty good.

1417
01:05:12,880 --> 01:05:15,200
Speaker 4: To access the tool, subscribe to Fantasy Labs, where you

1418
01:05:15,240 --> 01:05:17,800
Speaker 4: can get a five day trial for just fifteen ninety five.

1419
01:05:18,400 --> 01:05:20,280
Speaker 1: Chris, I think that's the show.

1420
01:05:20,480 --> 01:05:23,800
Speaker 4: Have a good time at the holiday party, A little bit,

1421
01:05:23,840 --> 01:05:27,200
Speaker 4: a little bit jealous that I'm not there, not gonna lie, You're.

1422
01:05:27,000 --> 01:05:30,880
Speaker 5: Gonna have a I'll do, I'll do what I assume

1423
01:05:30,880 --> 01:05:33,920
Speaker 5: will be one of many shots for you at this party.

1424
01:05:34,080 --> 01:05:37,280
Speaker 5: And thanks having a good holiday for everyone out there,

1425
01:05:37,320 --> 01:05:38,080
Speaker 5: have a good holiday.

1426
01:05:38,240 --> 01:05:39,640
Speaker 2: Let's get this morning all right.

1427
01:05:39,640 --> 01:05:41,920
Speaker 4: That's going to do it for this Friday episode of

1428
01:05:41,960 --> 01:05:44,520
Speaker 4: the Action Network NFL Podcast. Be sure to rate, review,

1429
01:05:44,560 --> 01:05:47,960
Speaker 4: and subscribe for all of our upcoming episodes. For Chris Raymond,

1430
01:05:48,000 --> 01:05:51,280
Speaker 4: I'm Matthew Freeman, Mattithiel Workle, see again next episode, and

1431
01:05:51,360 --> 01:06:02,480
Speaker 4: Happy holidays.

1432
01:06:01,880 --> 01:06:02,960
Speaker 2: St