Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea and the single best idea is in
Speaker 2: doing this for decades plural. This has been one of
Speaker 2: the most extraordinary weeks. And what you do, it's a blur, folks.
Speaker 2: I mean, just to give you a little vignette here,
Speaker 2: Cy Benson's in my ears constantly with my headphones on,
Speaker 2: literally telling me what the next thing is, tick by
Speaker 2: tick by tick, because Paul and I are looking at
Speaker 2: eight things going on in real time and we can't
Speaker 2: keep track of like what's next, or what's out three
Speaker 2: things or that. And with the quality of the conversations
Speaker 2: that we had this week, given this amazing news flow
Speaker 2: culminating in all the terrif announcements today and then this
Speaker 2: jobs report, it's just the privilege of these conversation. And
Speaker 2: you remember one single sentence out there, here's the sentence
Speaker 2: of the week, and it's from Lyle Brainer, the vice
Speaker 2: chairman of the Fed, thrilled that she could join us
Speaker 2: from Harvard, and doctor Brainer said simply, they want to
Speaker 2: bring in revenue, and that was the same. I'm not
Speaker 2: saying I agree that that's a public policy with tariffs,
Speaker 2: but at half a trillion or four hundred billion, whatever
Speaker 2: the number is, it's a big number and that's what
Speaker 2: this is about. As all America faces the combination of
Speaker 2: this job's economy and the tariff discussion, and then it
Speaker 2: redounds back to the market with as we fill this
Speaker 2: right now the doubt negative seven hundred, we'll see where
Speaker 2: we end up out in the far distance of four PM.
Speaker 2: Single best idea, Stephanie Roth nailed it with Wolf Research.
Speaker 2: We had her in quickly for a victory lap. It's
Speaker 2: rare that an economist can come in at eightousand, and
Speaker 2: when the shock number was seventy three thousand, Stephanie Roth
Speaker 2: goes to the Mexican border.
Speaker 1: I think the main thing that we took away from
Speaker 1: this print is that immigration is having a big impact
Speaker 1: on the labor market. And this is not just because
Speaker 1: depressing the July print, but also the reasons for the
Speaker 1: big revisions that are and should be making headlines today.
Speaker 1: They are because this is a labor market where headline
Speaker 1: job gains. The break even steady state pace of job
Speaker 1: growth has slowed down substantially, and that will be the
Speaker 1: case for quite some time given the immigration policy. Yet
Speaker 1: it tightens the labor market keeps the unemployment rate largely steady.
Speaker 1: It puts up a pressure on inflation on top of
Speaker 1: the tariff inflation.
Speaker 2: In the budget, laby El modeling out a lift in
Speaker 2: the unemployment rate out of eighteen months. And who knows
Speaker 2: what that migration will be. But I hear four point seven,
Speaker 2: four point eight eighty different flavors, different analysis. All I
Speaker 2: know is four point nine is distant from five point zero.
Speaker 2: Michael Darta knows that as well. Roth Michael Darta bringing
Speaker 2: in the markets into our discussion of the American economy.
Speaker 3: So the markets have priced in ninety one basis points
Speaker 3: over the next twelve months. So does the FMC guide
Speaker 3: markets for more than that or less than that?
Speaker 2: You know?
Speaker 1: Right now?
Speaker 3: I mean, I think you've got quite a bit of
Speaker 3: division on the committee. We did get two descents. That's
Speaker 3: the first time too. Fed Governor's descent to.
Speaker 2: This way genius is this morning.
Speaker 3: Since nineteen ninety three, right, But I think the focus
Speaker 3: has to be on price stability. I mean, obviously the
Speaker 3: FED wants to preserve the business site, but inflation is
Speaker 3: still above target. And if the FED is going to
Speaker 3: be harangued and cajoled into cutting rates when it's perhaps
Speaker 3: inappropriately inappropriate to do so. If inflation expectations go up,
Speaker 3: then long term interest rates go up, not down. So
Speaker 3: if the president's concerned about debt financing costs, let the
Speaker 3: Fed do its job. You know, let's return Plation two.
Speaker 3: Target and price stability is the number one way that
Speaker 3: you're going to have moderate market interest rates. The other
Speaker 3: way is get the fiscal house in order in Washington,
Speaker 3: DC has good luck for that fate planted in that regard.
Speaker 2: Michael Darter, with wisdom there from Roth Capital, I would
Speaker 2: suggest we are deep into August, and all that means
Speaker 2: is we're getting towards an election in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2: Some would say it's begun now, but let's be charitable
Speaker 2: and saying four or five months. I don't think the
Speaker 2: politicians and all of our House of Representatives is going
Speaker 2: to be worrying about the inflation dynamic here. They're going
Speaker 2: to be looking at that labor market and we're committed
Speaker 2: to covering it here in the coming months. The Shock
Speaker 2: revision today, thank you again with the leadership of Anahong
Speaker 2: of Bloomberg Economics, she was brilliant. Today we're on podcasts
Speaker 2: it's a new rage. They keep telling me Apple, thank
Speaker 2: you so much if I thank you, and on YouTube
Speaker 2: podcasts it's the single best idea