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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Single best idea and the single best idea is in

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Speaker 2: doing this for decades plural. This has been one of

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Speaker 2: the most extraordinary weeks. And what you do, it's a blur, folks.

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Speaker 2: I mean, just to give you a little vignette here,

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Speaker 2: Cy Benson's in my ears constantly with my headphones on,

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Speaker 2: literally telling me what the next thing is, tick by

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Speaker 2: tick by tick, because Paul and I are looking at

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Speaker 2: eight things going on in real time and we can't

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Speaker 2: keep track of like what's next, or what's out three

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Speaker 2: things or that. And with the quality of the conversations

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Speaker 2: that we had this week, given this amazing news flow

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Speaker 2: culminating in all the terrif announcements today and then this

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Speaker 2: jobs report, it's just the privilege of these conversation. And

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Speaker 2: you remember one single sentence out there, here's the sentence

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Speaker 2: of the week, and it's from Lyle Brainer, the vice

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Speaker 2: chairman of the Fed, thrilled that she could join us

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Speaker 2: from Harvard, and doctor Brainer said simply, they want to

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Speaker 2: bring in revenue, and that was the same. I'm not

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Speaker 2: saying I agree that that's a public policy with tariffs,

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Speaker 2: but at half a trillion or four hundred billion, whatever

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Speaker 2: the number is, it's a big number and that's what

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Speaker 2: this is about. As all America faces the combination of

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Speaker 2: this job's economy and the tariff discussion, and then it

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Speaker 2: redounds back to the market with as we fill this

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Speaker 2: right now the doubt negative seven hundred, we'll see where

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Speaker 2: we end up out in the far distance of four PM.

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Speaker 2: Single best idea, Stephanie Roth nailed it with Wolf Research.

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Speaker 2: We had her in quickly for a victory lap. It's

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Speaker 2: rare that an economist can come in at eightousand, and

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Speaker 2: when the shock number was seventy three thousand, Stephanie Roth

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Speaker 2: goes to the Mexican border.

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Speaker 1: I think the main thing that we took away from

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Speaker 1: this print is that immigration is having a big impact

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Speaker 1: on the labor market. And this is not just because

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Speaker 1: depressing the July print, but also the reasons for the

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Speaker 1: big revisions that are and should be making headlines today.

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Speaker 1: They are because this is a labor market where headline

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Speaker 1: job gains. The break even steady state pace of job

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Speaker 1: growth has slowed down substantially, and that will be the

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Speaker 1: case for quite some time given the immigration policy. Yet

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Speaker 1: it tightens the labor market keeps the unemployment rate largely steady.

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Speaker 1: It puts up a pressure on inflation on top of

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Speaker 1: the tariff inflation.

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Speaker 2: In the budget, laby El modeling out a lift in

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Speaker 2: the unemployment rate out of eighteen months. And who knows

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Speaker 2: what that migration will be. But I hear four point seven,

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Speaker 2: four point eight eighty different flavors, different analysis. All I

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Speaker 2: know is four point nine is distant from five point zero.

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Speaker 2: Michael Darta knows that as well. Roth Michael Darta bringing

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Speaker 2: in the markets into our discussion of the American economy.

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Speaker 3: So the markets have priced in ninety one basis points

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Speaker 3: over the next twelve months. So does the FMC guide

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Speaker 3: markets for more than that or less than that?

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Speaker 2: You know?

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Speaker 1: Right now?

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think you've got quite a bit of

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Speaker 3: division on the committee. We did get two descents. That's

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Speaker 3: the first time too. Fed Governor's descent to.

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Speaker 2: This way genius is this morning.

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Speaker 3: Since nineteen ninety three, right, But I think the focus

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Speaker 3: has to be on price stability. I mean, obviously the

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Speaker 3: FED wants to preserve the business site, but inflation is

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Speaker 3: still above target. And if the FED is going to

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Speaker 3: be harangued and cajoled into cutting rates when it's perhaps

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Speaker 3: inappropriately inappropriate to do so. If inflation expectations go up,

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Speaker 3: then long term interest rates go up, not down. So

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Speaker 3: if the president's concerned about debt financing costs, let the

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Speaker 3: Fed do its job. You know, let's return Plation two.

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Speaker 3: Target and price stability is the number one way that

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Speaker 3: you're going to have moderate market interest rates. The other

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Speaker 3: way is get the fiscal house in order in Washington,

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Speaker 3: DC has good luck for that fate planted in that regard.

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Speaker 2: Michael Darter, with wisdom there from Roth Capital, I would

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Speaker 2: suggest we are deep into August, and all that means

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Speaker 2: is we're getting towards an election in twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 2: Some would say it's begun now, but let's be charitable

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Speaker 2: and saying four or five months. I don't think the

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Speaker 2: politicians and all of our House of Representatives is going

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Speaker 2: to be worrying about the inflation dynamic here. They're going

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Speaker 2: to be looking at that labor market and we're committed

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Speaker 2: to covering it here in the coming months. The Shock

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Speaker 2: revision today, thank you again with the leadership of Anahong

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Speaker 2: of Bloomberg Economics, she was brilliant. Today we're on podcasts

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Speaker 2: it's a new rage. They keep telling me Apple, thank

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Speaker 2: you so much if I thank you, and on YouTube

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Speaker 2: podcasts it's the single best idea