WEBVTT - Bloomberg Money: Credit Card Indicators and Golf's Changing Fanbase 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:08.119 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, Bloomberg Money. 0:00:12.840 --> 0:00:15.960 This is the Bloomberg Money Podcast. I'm Tom Keen with 0:00:16.000 --> 0:00:19.080 Scarlet Foo. Join us each week for a smart look 0:00:19.360 --> 0:00:23.160 if the force is shaping your financial life. On personal finance, 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:27.640 on retirement and wealth management. We will explore how people 0:00:27.640 --> 0:00:32.160 are earning, investing, and building wealth. We are live Fridays 0:00:32.159 --> 0:00:36.200 at noon Eastern on Bloomberg Television. Subscribe to the podcast 0:00:36.240 --> 0:00:39.680 wherever you listen, and is always on the Bloomberg Terminal 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:43.240 and the Bloomberg Business app. Got a great set of 0:00:43.280 --> 0:00:45.720 Bloomberg people to be with us, David Girls just won't 0:00:45.760 --> 0:00:49.320 go away Bloomberg this weekend on Friday. 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:50.239 Ramping up to the show. 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:53.040 You have a key guest this week, Yes, maybe one 0:00:53.040 --> 0:00:53.560 from Michigan. 0:00:53.560 --> 0:00:54.280 I'm going to tease that. 0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:58.240 Okay, a moment Jess a song with us. Thank you 0:00:58.280 --> 0:01:00.360 so much for joining and nice to have you here. 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:02.200 Got lots to talk about at the start of the 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:05.679 show right now, But how did you affect mister Hassett 0:01:05.680 --> 0:01:09.280 here you were talking about socialism and the New Democratic 0:01:09.440 --> 0:01:10.920 Party broll. 0:01:11.000 --> 0:01:15.720 We're talking about some inconsistencies maybe in the Republicans language. 0:01:16.120 --> 0:01:20.040 They have talked about the communist socialist Democrats and asked 0:01:20.080 --> 0:01:23.080 him what a socialist was, and he said, the government 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:25.360 owns the means of production. And then I pointed out 0:01:25.360 --> 0:01:28.000 that the Trump administration has been taking stakes in a 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:29.160 lot of American companies. 0:01:29.240 --> 0:01:30.399 John Edwards years ago was. 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:33.559 Old school and what I saw today was a too 0:01:33.600 --> 0:01:36.399 America's job atcon. I mean, have you ever seen it, 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:40.560 Mike McKee, this split apart as we all struggle to retirement. 0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:42.679 I don't think it was too split apart this time. 0:01:42.800 --> 0:01:46.280 It was a lot of stuff under the hood that 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:48.520 you have to kind of thread together to make a 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:50.720 story out of it. Now, we did lose twenty three 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:55.400 thousand jobs, but fifty thousand of those were local education 0:01:55.760 --> 0:01:59.680 teachers and education workers, and a lot of that maybe 0:01:59.720 --> 0:02:03.960 just a seasonal difference of when people were taking off payrolls, 0:02:04.000 --> 0:02:06.840 because they usually come off May in June, and so 0:02:07.080 --> 0:02:10.400 that'll go away in the next month. And then the 0:02:10.480 --> 0:02:14.520 question is where's the rest of the job. We lost 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:16.959 nineteen thousand retail jobs, but the rest of it was 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:21.760 all just kind of lower hiring. Social services and education 0:02:22.680 --> 0:02:25.760 and health has been the big job creator, and we've 0:02:25.760 --> 0:02:28.440 been usually getting thirty forty fifty thousand a month in 0:02:28.480 --> 0:02:32.519 that category only got twenty two thousand, So hiring slowed down, 0:02:33.160 --> 0:02:35.600 but we had a four point one percent unemployment rate 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:38.880 because a lot of people left the labor force. Labor 0:02:38.880 --> 0:02:42.000 force was a lot smaller again the second month. And 0:02:42.040 --> 0:02:45.079 what that's telling you is that the President's deportation plans 0:02:45.080 --> 0:02:47.880 are working. The baby boomers, except for Tom, are still 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:49.160 are retiring now. 0:02:49.440 --> 0:02:52.960 And I think, what's behind his shoulder? 0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:56.640 Last time on the show for him? Save the show 0:02:56.720 --> 0:02:58.119 right now, young one. 0:02:58.160 --> 0:03:01.240 So the job's report took off the front page at 0:03:01.320 --> 0:03:04.120 least for this warning. But when it comes to inflation, 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:07.320 still not oil prices, David and consumers have the Iron 0:03:07.400 --> 0:03:11.160 War fatigue. Every headline on military strikes or talks causes 0:03:11.240 --> 0:03:13.600 huge swings and oil prices and gas prices. This is 0:03:13.639 --> 0:03:15.679 really difficult to know where things stand. I think even 0:03:15.720 --> 0:03:17.720 the President has Iron War fatigue. 0:03:17.960 --> 0:03:18.760 I think that's true. 0:03:18.800 --> 0:03:20.520 I mean, he's been talking about the prospects of a deal, 0:03:20.520 --> 0:03:22.239 but it's one that's been negotiated between the Iranians and 0:03:22.240 --> 0:03:24.959 Theomani's and a very circumscribed one that doesn't involve, certainly 0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:27.720 the nuclear program or anything like that interesting to see 0:03:27.720 --> 0:03:29.680 the way in which the President, if not talking about 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:32.320 the Iron War, isn't pivoting to talking about the economy, 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:34.239 although we do know from recent reporting from Bloomberg and 0:03:34.280 --> 0:03:37.080 other outlets he's calling up Kevin Warresh, calling up the 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:39.800 FED chair more frequently now to talk about the economy. 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:42.360 Spit all his ideas and where things are here about 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:44.280 mister Warsh's impressions of the data. 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:47.200 So clearly cognizant of where things. 0:03:47.040 --> 0:03:48.760 Are, but that's not manifesting the way that he's talking 0:03:48.760 --> 0:03:49.840 about on the campaign is. 0:03:49.760 --> 0:03:54.760 An odd David that we're ignoring affordability, standard of living, 0:03:55.600 --> 0:03:58.600 paycheck to paycheck right now, it seems like nobody's talking 0:03:58.640 --> 0:03:58.960 about it. 0:03:58.960 --> 0:04:00.840 I wouldn't paint that with the broad brush, but I'd 0:04:00.880 --> 0:04:02.440 go back to the White House. And it is something 0:04:02.440 --> 0:04:05.000 that I think President Trump's advisors desperately wanted to talk 0:04:05.040 --> 0:04:06.960 about more of the advances that he's made, and you 0:04:07.000 --> 0:04:08.840 saw him go to Las Vegas this week to talk 0:04:09.080 --> 0:04:11.200 once again about no taxes on tips, which was such 0:04:11.240 --> 0:04:13.480 a rally and cride during the campaign. But it is 0:04:13.520 --> 0:04:16.040 not something that he is either fond of talking about 0:04:16.120 --> 0:04:17.880 or able to talk about or able to stay focused 0:04:17.880 --> 0:04:19.520 on when he's on the campaign trail. So I think 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:21.680 that is laid bare for so many people. You mentioned 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:24.640 oil prices. Gas price is incredibly expensive. I think there's 0:04:24.640 --> 0:04:26.760 an awareness of the fact that is the case here 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:28.760 across this country. But it is certainly to your point, 0:04:29.200 --> 0:04:33.000 certainly not in the Republican zeitgeist, the president zeitgeist. You 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:35.000 look at the election that we had in Michigan this week, 0:04:35.400 --> 0:04:36.760 it really was an animating issue. 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:37.720 And even when you see kind of. 0:04:37.640 --> 0:04:41.560 Invective put on the candidate who won on abdulahs a Ed, 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:44.919 he pivots very quickly to talk about affordability in healthcare 0:04:45.000 --> 0:04:45.680 and other matters. 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:47.640 So it's because of this that investors kind of take 0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:50.200 matters into their own hands. And Sajah, you've written a 0:04:50.200 --> 0:04:53.760 story about how artificial intelligence is helping retail investors become 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:57.880 kind of DIY hedge fund managers. They're using this technology 0:04:58.240 --> 0:05:01.960 to build programs huge returns in the stock market because 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:03.599 this is what they see as their path forward. 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:04.360 Exactly. 0:05:04.600 --> 0:05:08.240 If you think about kind of the progression of retail trading, 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:11.560 this is almost like zero commission two point zero, So 0:05:12.040 --> 0:05:14.960 five ten years ago when Robinhood kind of spearheaded this 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:18.599 zero commission period, and then during the pandemic we saw 0:05:18.680 --> 0:05:22.480 like game stop and mean stock trading, and now it's 0:05:22.520 --> 0:05:27.200 almost the next chapter for retail trading, especially with artificial intelligence. 0:05:27.440 --> 0:05:29.960 These folks that we talked to, they don't just ask 0:05:30.040 --> 0:05:32.800 AI like what stocks to buy, They're asking them to 0:05:32.880 --> 0:05:36.440 help build code, build a model, very sophisticate a model 0:05:36.480 --> 0:05:39.840 to help them identify strategies and even generate trading calls. 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:42.839 Okay, so on the one hand, this empowers individual investors, 0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:45.599 but on the other hand, everyone is using these AI 0:05:45.640 --> 0:05:48.400 models which kind of look through the same data, and 0:05:48.440 --> 0:05:50.840 they use similar models, and I would imagine spit out 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:54.159 similar outcomes. Doesn't this create you know, concentration risk where 0:05:54.160 --> 0:05:57.720 people piloted the same positions for sure. 0:05:57.360 --> 0:06:02.440 If they're using the same AI models and generating similar calls, 0:06:02.720 --> 0:06:04.799 that could really amplify the market swings. 0:06:04.920 --> 0:06:07.880 Those are calls. Does AI tell you when to get out? 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:09.839 It does too. 0:06:10.240 --> 0:06:13.159 Some people have set up, for instance, ten percent stop 0:06:13.240 --> 0:06:15.919 losses so that you can do that. 0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:17.080 We didn't need AI. 0:06:18.680 --> 0:06:21.479 But if you're treating at a high frequency during the day, 0:06:21.680 --> 0:06:23.600 when you're at your day job or when you're having 0:06:23.720 --> 0:06:26.760 lunch with friends or even when you're sleeping. These AIS 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:29.680 can actually execute or automate your strategies for you. 0:06:29.800 --> 0:06:31.560 I want to bring back to jobs for a moment here, 0:06:31.640 --> 0:06:34.200 Mike McKee, do we see any evidence of AI the 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:36.920 kind of stuff that Sidja was talking about taking away 0:06:37.040 --> 0:06:39.040 jobs so farward? Is it still too early to look 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:39.240 for that? 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:40.359 Too early to look for that. 0:06:40.400 --> 0:06:42.919 But we did see evidence at AI as adding jobs 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:46.240 because there were twenty two thousand construction jobs added, and 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:50.159 about nineteen thousand of those were in areas adjacent to 0:06:50.200 --> 0:06:55.520 building AI, data centers, non residential construction, specialty contractors and 0:06:55.560 --> 0:06:58.200 things like that. And then you had another four to 0:06:58.240 --> 0:07:02.680 six thousand jobs in com and semiconductor manufacturing. So those 0:07:02.680 --> 0:07:05.320 were some of the positive areas in this job's report 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:09.360 and they're definitely linked to AI. But too early to say, well, 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:13.600 I didn't look at the actually jobs for stockbrokers, but 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:16.880 too early to say that AI is having a big 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:17.600 effect on them. 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:20.400 Rest secs just keep it going this weekend. 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:23.760 Every day. I say they can't keep this up and up, 0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:24.280 but they do. 0:07:24.480 --> 0:07:24.680 They do. 0:07:24.840 --> 0:07:27.520 It reminds me of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance kid 0:07:27.720 --> 0:07:30.120 when they're looking back at the Pinkerton Detectives saying, who 0:07:30.160 --> 0:07:30.920 are these guys? 0:07:31.240 --> 0:07:33.440 We do it's amazing to see. It's gonna just has 0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:39.960 been a joy, joy, joy of the summer. Bloomberg on 0:07:40.080 --> 0:07:42.360 a well, Bloomberg Money on a Friday, And I'll tell 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:43.200 you it's hot out there? 0:07:43.240 --> 0:07:46.200 Is it ninety today? It feels like yesterday was Boomer? 0:07:46.360 --> 0:07:48.080 I know it's I mean, this is these are the 0:07:48.120 --> 0:07:48.920 dog days and August. 0:07:48.960 --> 0:07:51.200 It's truly the dog days of August. 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:52.480 And we're going to try to do Is there some 0:07:52.600 --> 0:07:57.320 good conversation here about personal finance, about retirement and about 0:07:58.160 --> 0:08:00.440 you know, everything out there in Wells Man. 0:08:00.600 --> 0:08:01.600 Here's what you need to know. 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:06.120 Meredith Whitney knows it's about baseball. In baseball, you go 0:08:06.200 --> 0:08:08.680 up to the plate and two thirds of the time 0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:11.960 you go back to the dugout. She has enjoyed over 0:08:12.000 --> 0:08:14.280 the years a few times of putting the ball in 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:18.240 play definitive and finance in banking. She still Meredith Whitney's 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:19.880 advisory group today. 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:23.920 What was it like the acclaim you had I'm going 0:08:23.960 --> 0:08:25.880 to call it fifteen or twenty years ago. 0:08:26.160 --> 0:08:29.520 How did you handle just the day to day the 0:08:29.800 --> 0:08:33.800 boom of Meredith Whitney, municipal finance and banking. 0:08:33.800 --> 0:08:35.120 How do you handle it day to day? 0:08:35.400 --> 0:08:38.160 It was really awkward because you know, my world had 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:42.440 been really small, covering banks and financials, and I loved it. 0:08:42.520 --> 0:08:44.839 So people within the industry knew who I was and 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:46.920 I had great relationships, and then all of a sudden, 0:08:46.960 --> 0:08:49.720 there was so much more attention focused on me, and 0:08:49.760 --> 0:08:54.040 it's very it's uncomfortable. I wasn't used to it. I 0:08:54.040 --> 0:08:58.280 can't imagine how you guys are get used to it. 0:08:58.440 --> 0:09:01.720 You know it was but you comfortly decided what you 0:09:01.800 --> 0:09:05.160 and Sally Crawchuk were path breaking on, which is actually 0:09:05.200 --> 0:09:08.400 doing securities analysis. And then it got so much bigger 0:09:08.400 --> 0:09:11.479 than that. Let's show one of the huge Meredith Whitney's successes. 0:09:11.679 --> 0:09:13.480 You got to play, You got to put the ball 0:09:13.520 --> 0:09:15.960 in play, and then you have to have the courage 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:16.920 to hold on. 0:09:17.120 --> 0:09:19.360 I was in a meeting with Meredith ages ago. 0:09:19.400 --> 0:09:21.640 I could barely shave at the time, and you know, 0:09:21.720 --> 0:09:24.360 there we were and she says, this company, Visa, it'll 0:09:24.400 --> 0:09:27.720 work out. When did you sell Visa? When did you 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:30.080 get out? How did you not sell Visa? 0:09:31.080 --> 0:09:34.120 I mean, it's just been you know, back then it 0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:36.719 was just you know, cash to credit. There was this 0:09:36.840 --> 0:09:41.000 huge tailwind to it. And also it was like I 0:09:41.040 --> 0:09:43.400 call it a da mutualization from the from the bank, 0:09:43.559 --> 0:09:45.800 so it was it was a straight arrow. 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:46.800 It was one of the easier ones. 0:09:46.840 --> 0:09:49.840 And I call it the og of fintech because it 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:53.000 was really one of the first FinTechs. Now, after the 0:09:53.040 --> 0:09:57.320 Financial crisis, the FinTechs became a real thing and dissarn 0:09:57.440 --> 0:09:59.920 intermediate a lot of the things that the banks weren't 0:10:00.000 --> 0:10:03.240 only to do because they had PTSD from the financial crisis. 0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:06.880 You say, Visa, I think about credit cards, and I know, Meredith, 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:09.760 you track consumer credit as a way to gauge the 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:13.679 health of consumer spending and therefore the broader economy. Your 0:10:13.800 --> 0:10:17.400 view is that it's become increasingly more valuable because of 0:10:17.440 --> 0:10:20.320 the way that people use credit cards. They're visas now 0:10:20.360 --> 0:10:21.800 as opposed to five or ten years ago. 0:10:21.840 --> 0:10:22.760 What does that look like. 0:10:22.920 --> 0:10:26.680 Well, what's happened is post financial crisis, the banks pulled 0:10:26.720 --> 0:10:30.360 back dramatically from near prime and subprime, so they had 0:10:30.440 --> 0:10:34.120 all sorts of exposure. Wells was a big subprime lender, 0:10:34.440 --> 0:10:37.280 and so all of that has moved into the shadow 0:10:37.320 --> 0:10:41.200 banking s. It's maybe companies like that, we're famously subprime, 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:43.520 like Capital One has pulled way back and has focused 0:10:43.559 --> 0:10:47.640 on prime. So instead of revolving balances, people are spending 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:51.640 and paying back monthly. Now the balances don't reflect that 0:10:51.960 --> 0:10:54.600 they grow, but they're growing at the place of inflation. 0:10:54.920 --> 0:10:56.920 And so what I look at is being a very 0:10:56.960 --> 0:11:02.199 good guide for where inflation is. Gas prices peaked in 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:10.800 like mid early early May. Credit card spending had already 0:11:10.840 --> 0:11:14.240 peaked in early April, so and you've seen credit card 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:16.599 spending deccelerate from that time. And so these are just 0:11:16.640 --> 0:11:21.680 people spending, absorbing the higher prices and then just spending accordingly. 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:24.000 So I think I think the FED should look at 0:11:24.000 --> 0:11:25.960 their own data. This is data that comes out weekly, 0:11:26.000 --> 0:11:28.840 so you can see credit card balances and it's really helpful. 0:11:28.960 --> 0:11:32.200 So I think I think inflation is in a real mirror. 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:34.720 So it's like a charge card as opposed to a 0:11:34.760 --> 0:11:36.680 credit card that you pay the ballance off of. 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:40.160 That's exactly right, the charge plate right yourself. 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:42.360 But that's also why all these big banks are chasing 0:11:42.360 --> 0:11:44.560 the higher income consumer. Everyone's coming out with their own 0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:47.640 premium credit card because the fees are so lucrative. I mean, 0:11:47.679 --> 0:11:50.800 there's an underserved population here of people who actually need 0:11:50.960 --> 0:11:52.640 credit cards but can't actually get it. 0:11:52.640 --> 0:11:54.320 Can't get it, and so what they're doing is they're 0:11:54.320 --> 0:11:58.719 going outside of the banking system, which means it's incredibly expensive. 0:11:59.360 --> 0:12:01.800 I say that people aren't living paycheck to paycheck, but 0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:05.680 payday to payday. So the fastest growing industry within fintech 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:09.880 and financial services is advanced wage pay. So if you've 0:12:09.880 --> 0:12:14.880 worked two days, you can access for a fee, your 0:12:14.920 --> 0:12:17.840 wages for those two days. And what happens is people 0:12:17.880 --> 0:12:22.320 are using this service multiple times. Now, it was Dave 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:25.400 and Chime that reported yesterday that was their fastest growing product. 0:12:25.640 --> 0:12:28.200 And so while on a two week basis it looks 0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:30.680 like a six and a half percent interest rate, but 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:32.440 annualized that's over one. 0:12:32.360 --> 0:12:33.280 Hundred and sixty percent. 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:36.800 People aren't using this product one time, they're using multiple It. 0:12:36.760 --> 0:12:39.160 Harkens back to our grandparents. It feels like it's almost, 0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:42.520 you know, depression kind of. It's not about fancy personal 0:12:42.600 --> 0:12:45.400 finance and retirement. It's about a tough time out there. 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:46.960 We're trying to get to the next paycheck. 0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:47.800 That's exactly right. 0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:52.680 So there was a study done in February that two 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:57.559 thirds of people working are living paycheck to paycheck and 0:12:57.640 --> 0:13:03.480 a quarter of of labor ports participants are struggling to 0:13:03.559 --> 0:13:05.560 pay their bills. And so what they're doing is they're 0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:10.040 going to pawn shops, they're doing payday earned wage access 0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:15.680 borrowing and there, or they're tapping into for the subprime 0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:18.600 in near prime. They can't even get home equity loans. 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:20.960 So this is a fright a feast. 0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:23.320 Well, this is the courage yet over decades, you know, 0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:25.800 talking about the two Americas out there help me out 0:13:25.800 --> 0:13:28.920 as a stereotype of James Diamond of a small bank 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:33.280 on Park Avenue and buy now and pay later. I 0:13:33.280 --> 0:13:35.839 mean to me, it's almost a revolution where the kids 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:38.280 aren't using the charge cards like they used to in 0:13:38.280 --> 0:13:41.560 our personal finance. Does affirm in those kind of companies, 0:13:41.600 --> 0:13:42.080 do they win? 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:45.880 I think the buy now, pay later replace the credit card. 0:13:45.920 --> 0:13:48.120 And what I never saw coming was the fact that 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:51.480 the merchants are paying the fees right there, you know, 0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:54.560 they're paying a firm, they're paying and so what happened 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:57.439 in twenty ten, and not to get to technical, but the. 0:13:57.400 --> 0:14:00.120 Card at Friday, don't get technical. 0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:03.559 When we were in college, we got solicited by every 0:14:03.559 --> 0:14:06.000 credit card out there. When we graduated, we had credit 0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:09.880 card debt. In twenty ten that changed, So unless you've 0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:12.080 got a co signed by your parent, if you were 0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:13.000 under twenty one. 0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:13.960 You couldn't get a credit card. 0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:18.199 So this generation of Gen Z and younger millennials aren't 0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:22.800 used to revolving credit, so they're they're actually buy now, 0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:25.240 pay later is more appealing to them, even though sometimes 0:14:25.280 --> 0:14:25.920 it's the same thing. 0:14:26.000 --> 0:14:27.800 How do they set up a credit history? Then if 0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:31.240 they eventually when they want to start becoming consumers in 0:14:31.240 --> 0:14:33.600 this economy and be able to apply for loans, they 0:14:33.600 --> 0:14:34.920 don't have a credit history. 0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:36.960 Though, that's exactly that's exactly right, because you're not even 0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:38.960 if they're even if it's a high end high earners 0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:41.840 and they're taking American Express, they're paying down their balance, 0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:43.760 so you're exactly right, it's going to be harder for 0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:44.400 them to get a PRESD. 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:45.880 I think of you and the Klan. I'm going to 0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:47.680 pick on Mike Mayo. We all love to pick on 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:50.800 Mike Mayo. Great analysts out there, you people said they 0:14:50.880 --> 0:14:53.600 get through the Great Financial Crisis and think we should 0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:56.360 own the banks as part of our retirement. Give us 0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:58.920 an update now on where you think in the next 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:02.240 ten years those successful investments, where do they go. 0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:05.800 Well, it used to be the case that the banks 0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:09.040 paid rich dividends. That hasn't been the case. So banks 0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:12.520 have been buying back shares at really high valuations, which 0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:15.160 is not a creative for the banks. And they've been 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:19.480 reticent to raise dividends because they don't know how long 0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:23.640 this you know, this great earning, you know bonanza that 0:15:23.680 --> 0:15:25.960 the banks are in is going to last. So I 0:15:26.000 --> 0:15:30.400 think they're better vehicles to buy outside of the banks 0:15:30.440 --> 0:15:34.600 that have rich, rich dividend yields. In retirement, you can 0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:38.400 have both rich equities that i've rich dividen yields. 0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:40.360 Bonds are less certain. 0:15:40.400 --> 0:15:44.080 The sixty forty portfolio hasn't been, you know, a great 0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:45.080 performer the last year. 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:48.120 But I think banks, you know, Jamie. 0:15:48.360 --> 0:15:52.640 Sorry, JP Morgan is an absolute outlier. I mean, they've 0:15:52.680 --> 0:15:56.080 had since two thousand and ten, they've just been a 0:15:56.160 --> 0:15:59.320 juggernaut and that's been a great stock. But they bought 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.200 back the most amount of shares of any of the banks. 0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:04.880 Twenty years ago. Banks were what tech was in terms 0:16:04.880 --> 0:16:07.000 of concentration in the market. I mean, they were the 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:09.840 giants and then now it's all tech firms and banks 0:16:09.840 --> 0:16:11.440 are kind of like, you know, middle of the road. 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:14.200 Can you see Meredith and the golf course. It'd be 0:16:14.240 --> 0:16:14.960 like a terror. 0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:19.160 You've made some big calls on banks on munis in 0:16:19.160 --> 0:16:21.920 your career on Wall Street. What's your personal approach to 0:16:21.960 --> 0:16:22.960 investing these days. 0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:25.760 I've always been thematic with my part I didn't own 0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:30.400 the banks back then, thank goodness, because I was covering 0:16:30.400 --> 0:16:31.520 them and I just felt. 0:16:31.360 --> 0:16:32.640 There was always a conflict of interest. 0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:37.440 But I always take long term thematic approaches to my investing. 0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:41.520 So I'll give you a couple of examples, you know, 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:45.280 the winners and the losers. With the Housing bill, the 0:16:45.280 --> 0:16:49.680 affordable Housing twenty first century road to Housing. I bought Sky, 0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:53.600 which is Champion Homes, which is a manufactured home builder, 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:57.840 and the idea is that they repealed a chassis law, 0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:04.639 things would change, that production would increase dramatically, And manufacturer 0:17:04.640 --> 0:17:09.040 homes are really nice. They're not the manufactured homes of yesteryear. 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:14.000 So by that I've done, I do front some some 0:17:14.040 --> 0:17:16.760 frontier investing in terms of with. 0:17:16.960 --> 0:17:21.760 Uh uh uh uh. 0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:22.119 Certain markets, geographical market. 0:17:21.920 --> 0:17:25.320 To me well, with a lot of the stands which 0:17:25.440 --> 0:17:30.040 have very rich, rare earth minerals, so that a lot 0:17:30.040 --> 0:17:34.680 of that is going sees uh private to public companies 0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:37.920 know that sort of esoteric ic, but those have been 0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:41.200 good plays and they're emerging will be bigger plays, all. 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:42.440 Right, So a commodity play there. 0:17:42.720 --> 0:17:44.320 And then from Meredith Whitney, thank you so much for 0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:46.560 joining us, by the way, you really appreciate. Meredith Whitney, 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:49.680 CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, coming up a conversation 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:53.040 with David Kelly with a focus on personal finance, retirement 0:17:53.119 --> 0:18:00.680 and wealth management, disiness Bloomberg Money. 0:18:00.440 --> 0:18:02.919 On a Bloomberg Money on a Friday, And I'll tell 0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:03.760 you it's hot out there. 0:18:03.840 --> 0:18:06.760 Is it ninety today? It feels like yesterday was brutal. 0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:08.639 I know it's I mean, this is these are the 0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:09.480 dog days longest. 0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:11.760 It's truly the dog days of August. 0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:13.080 And we're going to try to do is there some 0:18:13.160 --> 0:18:17.919 good conversation here about personal finance, about retirement and about 0:18:18.720 --> 0:18:20.920 you know, everything out there in Wilson Management. 0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:22.159 Here's what you need to know. 0:18:22.720 --> 0:18:26.679 Meredith Whitney knows it's about baseball. In baseball, you go 0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:28.960 up to the plate and two thirds of the. 0:18:28.880 --> 0:18:31.120 Time you go back to the dugout. 0:18:31.520 --> 0:18:33.600 She has enjoyed over the years a few times of 0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:37.280 putting the ball in play definitive and finance in banking. 0:18:37.600 --> 0:18:40.440 She'sill Meredith Whitney's advisory group today. 0:18:40.640 --> 0:18:44.479 What was it like the acclaim you had I'm going 0:18:44.520 --> 0:18:46.440 to call it fifteen or twenty years ago. 0:18:46.720 --> 0:18:50.080 How did you handle just the day to day the 0:18:50.359 --> 0:18:54.360 boom of Meredith Whitney, municipal finance and banking. 0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:55.720 How do you handle it day to day? 0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:58.720 It was really awkward because you know, my world had 0:18:58.760 --> 0:19:03.000 been really small, covering banks and financials, and I loved it. 0:19:03.080 --> 0:19:05.399 So people within the industry knew who I was and 0:19:05.400 --> 0:19:07.480 I had great relationships, and then all of a sudden, 0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:10.280 there was so much more attention focused on me, and 0:19:10.320 --> 0:19:14.520 it's very it's it's uncomfortable. I wasn't used to it. 0:19:14.520 --> 0:19:18.880 I can't imagine how you guys get used to it. 0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:22.280 You know, it was it was comfortly decided what you 0:19:22.359 --> 0:19:25.720 and Sally Crawchuk were path breaking on, which is actually 0:19:25.760 --> 0:19:28.960 doing securities analysis, and then it got so much bigger 0:19:28.960 --> 0:19:32.040 than that. Let's show one of the huge Meredith Whitney's successes. 0:19:32.240 --> 0:19:34.040 You got to play, You got to put the ball 0:19:34.080 --> 0:19:36.520