Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Finance ministers and central bank governors from the G twenty
Speaker 2: countries met in South Africa this week, but despite the
Speaker 2: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett again skipping the summit, US
Speaker 2: tariffs are still driving the agenda.
Speaker 3: You know, we've taken in hundreds of billions of dollars
Speaker 3: in tariffs, hundreds of billions, and we haven't even started yet.
Speaker 3: And it's going to be a great thing for our country.
Speaker 3: I think it's going to be a fair thing for
Speaker 3: the world. And we really haven't had too many complaints.
Speaker 2: While South Africa wanted to focus on debt relief, climate
Speaker 2: and reform of global institutions, attention is instead firmly focused
Speaker 2: on the fallout of a global trade war.
Speaker 4: We, of course, meeting at a moment of ongoing uncertainty
Speaker 4: in the global economy, uneven growth trajectories, elevated debt levels,
Speaker 4: persistent inflationary pressures, and the complex implications of tightening financial conditions.
Speaker 4: The multilateral system is being tested, and our collective ability
Speaker 4: to respond will shape the pace of our recovery.
Speaker 2: On today's episode of The Next Africa podcast, we'll look
Speaker 2: at why there's only one topic dominating the agenda, and whether,
Speaker 2: as the US continues to ignore the G twenty, President
Speaker 2: Zero Ramaposa has any chance to make an impact with
Speaker 2: this year's presidency. I'm Jennifer Zabisajap and this is the
Speaker 2: Next Africa Podcast, bringing you one story each week from
Speaker 2: the continent driving the future of global growth with the
Speaker 2: context only Bloomberg can provide. I'm in Zimbali on the
Speaker 2: Indian Ocean coast of South Africa for what was hoped
Speaker 2: to be one of the flagship events for South Africa's
Speaker 2: presidency of the G twenty. President Ramaposa had hoped he
Speaker 2: could be the voice of the global South and push
Speaker 2: war agreement on issues such as debt relief and also
Speaker 2: climate finance. But instead, all of the talk this year
Speaker 2: has been about global trade and the impact of President
Speaker 2: Trump's tariff policy. In a moment, we're going to be
Speaker 2: speaking to Bloomberg's Africa economist Von Mango, but first let's
Speaker 2: hear from some of the key figures on the fringes
Speaker 2: of the G twenty. I spoke with Lascia Kenyajo, the
Speaker 2: Central Bank Governor of South Africa. How much do you
Speaker 2: think tariffs and tariff threats really are are sort of
Speaker 2: clouding any of these priorities that South Africa actually set
Speaker 2: out for in this two twenty presidency.
Speaker 5: Well, the term ifs remember get imposts on the economy
Speaker 5: that is planting that it would like to have test
Speaker 5: it is a cost on the consumers of that country
Speaker 5: in terms of pricing and the loot. But for all
Speaker 5: of us are exporting to the country that imposes terriffs,
Speaker 5: there is an impact on output and in the case
Speaker 5: of South Africa, the biggest impacts that come through the
Speaker 5: automative industry and the agricultural sector. The issue about also
Speaker 5: there is these important issues with having to grapple with
Speaker 5: what would this mean for the outlook of the USA
Speaker 5: economy and the poster that the FED might take in
Speaker 5: terms of monetary policy, and what did you mean to
Speaker 5: global financing conditions. Then the problem is that there are
Speaker 5: so many moving paths which is not clear where we
Speaker 5: would end up. Uncertainty abound and every way we talk
Speaker 5: about where unsettin about this, we are unsetting about that,
Speaker 5: and many central bandst resorts to just presenting a forecast
Speaker 5: and also have to do a scenario because we do
Speaker 5: not know how these things will open up.
Speaker 2: Is the absence of Scott person and your counterpart in
Speaker 2: the US, does that then set back the progress?
Speaker 5: But counterpart, my counterpart was here in February. My counterpart
Speaker 5: was in Washington, and he did indicate right at the
Speaker 5: beginning of the year that he will do the fact
Speaker 5: Amalary meeting, and he will do the April meeting, but
Speaker 5: that he will not do his meeting. He will be
Speaker 5: the FAT will be represented by a vice Chairlenge. And
Speaker 5: at the US flag, both the treasure inside and the
Speaker 5: fat side, there will be people. They're representing the US.
Speaker 5: What matters is is there some way behind the flat
Speaker 5: is able to articulate the position of profit country.
Speaker 2: That is important. Okay, so the absence of Scott Paston,
Speaker 2: then it is not necessarily a snub. You don't see
Speaker 2: it as a snub for US.
Speaker 5: This is not an absence of the US. See.
Speaker 2: I want to ask too about monetary policy, because we
Speaker 2: have seen inflation here in South Africa at least at
Speaker 2: or near or below the target for the central Bank
Speaker 2: for about eight consecutive ones I believe it's been and
Speaker 2: yet you still say the outlook is clouded. I think
Speaker 2: the term that you use, yes, the outlook is cloud
Speaker 2: Are you confident though, that inflation is moderating and moderating
Speaker 2: lower as the forecast did suggest over the past few months.
Speaker 5: We are confident the deity to moderated and we actually
Speaker 5: our basine is that we think that it really remain
Speaker 5: throughout our focus over the next twenty four months, that
Speaker 5: tally remain within targeting. But we do questions that the
Speaker 5: outlook is clouded. There is uncertainty out there in the
Speaker 5: global space in the main and I'm nott the international
Speaker 5: confidence I had attended about by the central bands over
Speaker 5: the past three months keeps on tammaring on the issue
Speaker 5: of uncertainties, monetary policy in uncertain times, financial stability, implications
Speaker 5: of the uncertain environment. Uncertainty is the word that is feminine.
Speaker 2: To stick with me. When we come back, we'll hear
Speaker 2: from von Mango about what's at stake in this global
Speaker 2: trade We'll be right back. Welcome back today on the podcast,
Speaker 2: we're discussing the G twenty finance leader's summit in South
Speaker 2: Africa that was this week, as the world continues to
Speaker 2: focus on growing trade tensions. Bloomberg's Africa economist von Mango
Speaker 2: is joining me now, Yvon. We spoke with you earlier
Speaker 2: in the year when the original tariffs were introduced. Of course,
Speaker 2: there has been quite a number of changes that have
Speaker 2: happened since then. Talk to us about the impact of
Speaker 2: some of those changes over the past few months on
Speaker 2: Sub Saharan Africa.
Speaker 1: So the last time we spoke, the tariffs, the reciprocal
Speaker 1: tariffs have just been imposed by the Trump administration. Since then,
Speaker 1: there was that ninety day pause that they announced in
Speaker 1: about mid April and that expired last week. Essentially, what
Speaker 1: was meant to happen during this ninety day pause is
Speaker 1: the US, since Trade partners was supposed to approach the
Speaker 1: US and negotiate lower tariffs by offering some sort of concessions.
Speaker 1: We saw a president from Apausa of South Africa be
Speaker 1: the delegation to the United States and part of the
Speaker 1: reason for that visit was to try and reach a
Speaker 1: favorable agreement when it comes to trade. As you're well aware,
Speaker 1: several African countries are part of what was known as
Speaker 1: the Africa Growth Opportunity Act. Basically that offered duty free
Speaker 1: access for several African countries into the United States. So
Speaker 1: you can imagine coming from that duty free access to
Speaker 1: a high levee has significant implications. The country hardest hit
Speaker 1: we touched upon this last time we spoke is Lusutu,
Speaker 1: which was slapped for fifty percent tariff even within the
Speaker 1: ninety day pause period, which gave the country an opportunity
Speaker 1: to negotiate. We've already seen factories closed down. These factories
Speaker 1: were producing garments that they exported to the United States
Speaker 1: and already seen jobs lost as a result. In terms
Speaker 1: of South Africa, the most industrialized country on the continent.
Speaker 1: What we heard about ten days ago from the United
Speaker 1: States is that the thirty percent reciprocal tariff would be
Speaker 1: reinstated on the first of August. It did suggest that
Speaker 1: there was scope in the three weeks until that date
Speaker 1: for the country to still have talks with the United States,
Speaker 1: but we haven't heard anything as yet, and I think
Speaker 1: several countries are preparing themselves to have the original high
Speaker 1: levees imposed.
Speaker 2: Would you say South Africa is the hardest hit in
Speaker 2: Sub Saharan Africa, I mean we talked about a few
Speaker 2: of the other smaller economies that are being maybe unjustly targeted,
Speaker 2: is what i'd call it. But would you say South
Speaker 2: Africa is maybe going to take the hardest brunt short answer.
Speaker 1: To that is no. I think a small, open economy
Speaker 1: like this to be harder hit. And the main reason
Speaker 1: is because their export to the United States accounts for
Speaker 1: ten percent of GDP. That's quite a big hit. We've
Speaker 1: modeled the impact on South Africa's economy, so yes, the
Speaker 1: US is an important trade partner. Ten percent of the
Speaker 1: country's exports end up in the United States, a court
Speaker 1: of which she used to enjoy duty free access. That's
Speaker 1: your like of your citrus products from the agriculture industry,
Speaker 1: as well as the automotive industry. However, when we look
Speaker 1: at the actual impact on GDP, it's less than a
Speaker 1: one percent hit. To be exactly, it's zero point three
Speaker 1: percent of GDP that's at risk as a result of
Speaker 1: these tariffs. So the impact, particularly compare to the Asian economies,
Speaker 1: is relatively small for Africa in general, but of course
Speaker 1: for the smaller economies such as Lisutu, they're going to
Speaker 1: see a much more significant repercussions as a result of
Speaker 1: this trade policy.
Speaker 2: And ivon at the G twenty summit, as we've talked
Speaker 2: about South Africa was really hoping this would be a
Speaker 2: year where they can focus on a lot of the
Speaker 2: Global South priorities. It has really become a year that
Speaker 2: has been focused on these tariffs and towarding what many
Speaker 2: people see as a bigger and broader trade war. Is
Speaker 2: there anything that maybe central bank governors, finance ministers can do.
Speaker 2: Are there any policies in place or discussions that maybe
Speaker 2: you're hearing to support or to offset some of the
Speaker 2: policies of the tariffs and from the Trump administration.
Speaker 1: So yes, you're right. In terms of the original objectives
Speaker 1: that South Africa had as the leading the presidency of
Speaker 1: the G twenty, this year a lot of those ideas,
Speaker 1: such as addressing climate change, putting debts, the issue of
Speaker 1: the developing world's high indebtedness as a core issue to
Speaker 1: be addressed, particularly by our developer partners, those issues now
Speaker 1: have been sidelined, which is unfortunate. And as you're right,
Speaker 1: many people are just reacting to the tariffs and how
Speaker 1: they can respond to that. In terms of how policymakers
Speaker 1: can react, I guess on the Monty policy side to banks,
Speaker 1: if they have the room to do so, can put
Speaker 1: in place accommodative policy PUS as you can imagine the
Speaker 1: hits that the impact of tips will be a slow
Speaker 1: down in growth generally, and that's globally, So it's a
Speaker 1: slower demand for our commodities and our exports, not just
Speaker 1: from the United States but from the rest of the world,
Speaker 1: which is also being hurt by these levees. So in
Speaker 1: countries where inflation is benign and in South Africa, were
Speaker 1: fortunate enough to say that that is the case at
Speaker 1: this point in time. That means that cent to banks
Speaker 1: can look at easy moneted policy to create a more
Speaker 1: accommodative environment that will support growth and consumption in their
Speaker 1: particular economies. On the fiscal side, what can finance ministers do? Unfortunately,
Speaker 1: the room for expansionary policy is very limited because we're
Speaker 1: just it's been five years since the pandemic, and then
Speaker 1: two years after the pandemic we experienced the impact of
Speaker 1: commodity prices, but again the grain sides spike and that
Speaker 1: led to inflation and high inflation globally, but that also
Speaker 1: impacted several African countries on the fiscal side, So what
Speaker 1: your face with the countries that are actually trying to
Speaker 1: reduce their budget deficits and to restore their debt positions
Speaker 1: to more sustainable levels. So our debt was meant to
Speaker 1: be such an important issue at these G twenty meetings.
Speaker 1: So the point I'm trying to make is there's very
Speaker 1: limited scope for finance ministers to put in place expansionary
Speaker 1: policies that would stimulate growth.
Speaker 2: And we heard from lesa Ya Kanyaho actually saying that
Speaker 2: it's it's difficult to say, is what he said, if
Speaker 2: risks are actually materializing based on the data, would you
Speaker 2: agree with that?
Speaker 1: Well, yes, I think it's term the wash. He spoke
Speaker 1: something about high to nightmare to forecast anything, and it's
Speaker 1: absolutely right. I mean, as a central bank governor when
Speaker 1: they're providing their rate decisions, which this African Reserve Bank
Speaker 1: will do later this month, they're forward looking, they're looking
Speaker 1: at the inflation and in this environment, it's highly uncertain,
Speaker 1: as you know, policy announced on such a high frequency
Speaker 1: basis and there's no guarantee that those policies that are
Speaker 1: being announced will be sustained. So yes, it is quite
Speaker 1: challenging in which environment in which to make policy. But
Speaker 1: that said, what we are seeing which is quite interesting
Speaker 1: is that for now, at least outside of the United
Speaker 1: States and in some emerging markets, we are seeing some
Speaker 1: softening of inflation, and that's we think as a consequence
Speaker 1: of the currencies doing well in emerging markets under a
Speaker 1: week dollar. So of course if your currency strengthy against
Speaker 1: a week dollar, what it means is that it reduces
Speaker 1: your important inflation. So we are seeing currencies soften on
Speaker 1: the back of that. It's also helping soften energy prices,
Speaker 1: which we've seen in South Africa. So inflation is actually
Speaker 1: cooler than many anticipated in many of our emerging markets,
Speaker 1: allowing for accommodated policy. So this is some of the
Speaker 1: trends we're already be seeing which could help particularly intents
Speaker 1: of trying to lick to growth if on Mango.
Speaker 2: Thank you as always for joining us and for your insights,
Speaker 2: and you can read all of our coverage on the
Speaker 2: G twenty on Bloomberg platforms now, including the Next African Newsletter.
Speaker 2: We'll put a link to that in the show notes.
Speaker 2: This program was produced by Adrian Bradley and tiwa Adebayo.
Speaker 2: Don't forget to follow and review the show wherever you
Speaker 2: usually get your podcasts. I'm Jennifer's Abasaja, thanks as always
Speaker 2: for listening.