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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network podcast presented by the Fan

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Speaker 1: Duels Sportsbook. Joining you today for your UFC betting preview.

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Speaker 1: UFC Kansas City coming to you this weekend from T

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Speaker 1: Mobile Center. Brendan Glass Sheen your host, with our MMA

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Speaker 1: UFC analysts, Shanzarello, Billy Ward, looking at our favorite underdogs,

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Speaker 1: props more finishing up with best bets as we normally do, gents,

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Speaker 1: We start the show with the main event, Max Holloway

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Speaker 1: Arnold Allen. You're featured fight Holloway minus one eighty eight

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Speaker 1: on the money line over at Fandel Arnold Allen at

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Speaker 1: plus one point fifty two. Allen has been a pretty

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Speaker 1: excellent since landing in UFC ten consecutive wins to climb

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Speaker 1: into contention, and then you've got a Holloway here at

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Speaker 1: at minus one eighty eight, is a favorite who has

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Speaker 1: impressed and has been steady. Eddie Zarrillo, what do we

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Speaker 1: make of the fight and how do we want to

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Speaker 1: bet this one?

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Speaker 3: Had a difficult time for a bit figuring out how

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Speaker 3: I wanted to bet this fight. I ultimately settled on

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Speaker 3: a same game parlay with Holloway in the over one

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Speaker 3: and a half rounds. It's currently down at minus one

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Speaker 3: oh five. I would also look to bet Holloway live

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Speaker 3: after the second and third round. That's a very similar

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Speaker 3: approach to how I took betting Calvin Cater against Arnold Allen.

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Speaker 3: Cater ended up getting hurt. We didn't see that fight

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Speaker 3: play out fully. But the reason I'm taking this angle

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Speaker 3: Allen hasn't actually been past the third round of a fight.

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Speaker 3: That fight with Cater was supposed to be his first

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Speaker 3: career five round fight. We were going to finally see

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Speaker 3: how was Cardio lasted over five round fight, whether he

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Speaker 3: was able to maintain a pace over the course beyond

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Speaker 3: fifteen minutes, and we know that those are Max Holloway's

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Speaker 3: greatest strengths. Putting a pace on opponents fighting for twenty

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Speaker 3: five minutes, racking up a ton of significant strikes, the

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Speaker 3: UFC record number of significant strikes in some of his bouts.

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Speaker 3: Some red flags on the hallways side three straight losses,

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Speaker 3: the Volkanofski, who knows where he's at mentally at the

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Speaker 3: stage of his career, also getting older. We've seen him

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Speaker 3: take a year layoffs since that fight. But he's the

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Speaker 3: guy who stops sparring, and I think that's really smart,

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Speaker 3: just to you know, all the damage that he's taken

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Speaker 3: throughout his career. Billy could speak to it better than

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Speaker 3: I can, but I would imagine not taking that damage

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Speaker 3: and sparring is going to help elongate his career, especially

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Speaker 3: for a guy who's as good of a boxer as

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Speaker 3: he is. It's not like those are skills that he

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Speaker 3: needs to continue to refine. He does a lot of

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Speaker 3: shadow boxing and stuff to keep in shape and keep

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Speaker 3: his hands good, but not going to be taking the

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Speaker 3: damage in training, never been knocked down in the UFC.

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Speaker 3: Those are all positive signs for a guy who is

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Speaker 3: as durable as they can. It's not like his chin

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Speaker 3: is probably going to suddenly crack, even though he's been

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Speaker 3: through all these wars. So Max Holloway, I think, can

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Speaker 3: continue to be a durable guy over the course of

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Speaker 3: twenty five minutes, continue to pace his opponents, and he's

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Speaker 3: going to be the first guy presumably who's going to

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Speaker 3: test Arnold Allen in deep water. So Holloway better live

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Speaker 3: price after the first round, second round, maybe the third

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Speaker 3: round two, That's where I'd like to target him. I

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Speaker 3: think Allen's going to be extremely competitive. He's a very

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Speaker 3: good fighter. I think it's going to be a very

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Speaker 3: good fight for the first ten or fifteen minutes, and

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Speaker 3: I think Max Holloway is eventually going to pull away,

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Speaker 3: maybe stop him in the fourth or fifth round. So

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Speaker 3: round four, round five at nineteen toh one call it

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Speaker 3: my eye as well, but the same game parlay over

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Speaker 3: one and a half at minus one oh five My

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Speaker 3: favorite way to play.

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Speaker 1: Seven losses for Holloway and UFC six have been against

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Speaker 1: current or former champs. As Zarillo mentioned Volkanovski three times.

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Speaker 1: Billy Ward as a reminder, folks up on the Action

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Speaker 1: Network AUP actionnetwork dot com, he does have luck ratings

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Speaker 1: for each UFC fight, so that's where you can find

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Speaker 1: Billy's luck ratings. He now joins us by phone for

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Speaker 1: this week's pod. Billy, would you like to explain yourself

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Speaker 1: as to why you were joining us by phone this week?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, last night hanging outside in the backyard

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Speaker 4: with the dog and he decided he needed to chew

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Speaker 4: through the internet cable running into the house, so trying

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Speaker 4: to get there via phone hotspot wasn't quite doing it,

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Speaker 4: but we're back.

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Speaker 1: Sounds kind of made up, but I think I believe you.

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Speaker 1: Please weigh in on Holloway, Allen, and you do think

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Speaker 1: this is a fairly valued fight based on your article, Why.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is really hard. This is actually my least

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Speaker 4: favorite kind of fight to handicap where we have a

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Speaker 4: younger fighter who looked awesome against lower level competition taking

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Speaker 4: on you know, a veteran who has some losses, but

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Speaker 4: they're also the best of the best. You know, as

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Speaker 4: you guys pointed out, six of seven Halloway losses are

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Speaker 4: against champs or former camps. Three of those were to Volkanovski,

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Speaker 4: two to Dustin Tooyer, so we've never seen someone you know,

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Speaker 4: lesser beat him before. But we've also never seen Alan

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Speaker 4: really lose a fight in the UFC. It's tough. The

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Speaker 4: one step up fight he was supposed to have against

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Speaker 4: Calvin Cator was cut short to a cater freak injury. So,

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Speaker 4: you know, I agree with a lot of Shawn's analysis.

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Speaker 4: I do worry a little bit about all the damage

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Speaker 4: Holloway has taken over his career. I think, you know,

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Speaker 4: not sparring as much and not taking the damage now

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Speaker 4: stops that from progressing further. I don't know how much

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Speaker 4: your brain really heals or comes back after that kind

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Speaker 4: of thing. You know, he had a pretty famous Sports

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Speaker 4: Center interview where he was kind of out of it

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Speaker 4: and seem to have some concussion symptoms. I don't know

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Speaker 4: how much that ever comes back. So with that said,

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Speaker 4: very tough fight for me to handicap. But you can

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Speaker 4: get over plus one fifty on one side of it.

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Speaker 4: This is like a half unit bat for me on

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Speaker 4: Arnold Allen. But when I feel like something's almost a

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Speaker 4: coin flipper, really hard to pick, I want to be

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Speaker 4: on the side of the coin that pays out more

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Speaker 4: than the other.

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Speaker 1: Zerrilla Billy sounds super legit through the phone.

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Speaker 3: It's an extra layer of expertise when you get that

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Speaker 3: radio expert calling in, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, well, we'll stop kick, we'll stop pumping his tires now,

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Speaker 1: and we'll move on with the pod. I just couldn't

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Speaker 1: help myself. Favorite underdog for UFC Kansas City Sorilla.

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Speaker 3: Pierre Rodriguez plus one fifteen. I think it's a pretty

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Speaker 3: similar dynamic in terms of the matchup to the Rosas.

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Speaker 3: Rodriguez fight last week that Billy and I discussed in

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Speaker 3: that Robertson needs takedown to win this fight. She's not

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Speaker 3: going to inflict a lot of damage on the ground

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Speaker 3: going to search for submissions and at a clear striking disadvantage.

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Speaker 3: So even if she gets takedowns, if she's not able

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Speaker 3: to finish the fight with the submission in the one

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Speaker 3: or two minutes that Rodriguez is on the feet in

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Speaker 3: each round, because each round does start on the feet,

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Speaker 3: she may be able to win those rounds just by

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Speaker 3: landing a few strikes and inflicting more damage. So the

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Speaker 3: three facets of MMA, Robertson clearly the better grappler, Rodriguez

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Speaker 3: clearly the better striker. I'm not sure that Robertson is

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Speaker 3: clearly the better wrestler, So it does come down to

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Speaker 3: the wrestling, whether Robertson is able to take her down,

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Speaker 3: whether she's able to keep her down. Has amongst the

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Speaker 3: most submission wins in woman's UFC history, But I think

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Speaker 3: Rodriguez just in terms of her ability to win minutes

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Speaker 3: in limited time with the striking, with the damage, and

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Speaker 3: then also just win the striking or finish Robertson in

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Speaker 3: general Rodriguez a plus one fifteen. My favorite dog bet

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Speaker 3: I think this Do you pick him?

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Speaker 1: Billy? Lines are tight this week, not a ton of

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Speaker 1: like overwhelming underdogs on the card prelimbs or main card.

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Speaker 1: What do you like for in the underdog market?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually like a lot of the you know,

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Speaker 4: shorter underdog lines this week for anyone listening. I'm going

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Speaker 4: a little bit smaller with my bat size in here

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Speaker 4: just because I'm on so much plus money. But I

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Speaker 4: really like Pedro Munos at plus one seventy six. It's, honestly,

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Speaker 4: in a weird way, a similar dynamic to the main event,

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Speaker 4: where Muno's losses has come against very high level competition.

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Speaker 4: Chris Grudierre has looked very good in the USC that

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Speaker 4: he's got some split decisions, he's got some draws, and

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Speaker 4: it's all against lower competition. What swungly over to Muno's

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Speaker 4: is that he was actually winning the first round of

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Speaker 4: his last fight against Jhn O'Malley before O'Malley poked him

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Speaker 4: in the eye. It was either two or three of

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Speaker 4: the judges all had it for Munos at that point

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Speaker 4: when it was stopped, and kind of just going back

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Speaker 4: to what I said about this being what feels like

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Speaker 4: a coin flip on whether the younger guy really is

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Speaker 4: that level or you know, is going to be knocked

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Speaker 4: back down when he steps up. If I can get

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Speaker 4: plus money either side of it, I'm definitely gonna take that.

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Speaker 4: So m knows a plus one't seventy six against Chris

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Speaker 4: gutierres really like Chris Gutier's as a prospect, but this

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Speaker 4: just might be too big of a step up until

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Speaker 4: he proves it to me.

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Speaker 1: O main event at UFC Kansas City, Edson Barbosa, Billy Quarantillo,

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Speaker 1: and Cornillo is actually on record saying that this is

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Speaker 1: his toughest opponent ever. Very cliche, but he is in

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Speaker 1: a spot this week where he is. Cornillo is minus

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Speaker 1: one eighty eight. He's a favorite over at Fandel Barbosa

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Speaker 1: at plus one point fifty two. Zerrilla. I'll go to

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Speaker 1: our guest via the hotline first, because you've got Barbosa

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Speaker 1: the dog undervalue, but.

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Speaker 4: He got yeah, And you know, I hate picking against

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Speaker 4: a fellow grown man who still goes by Billy rather

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Speaker 4: than Bill or Will or whatever more adult version is

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Speaker 4: out there. I've got to do it here, you know, Quarantino.

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Speaker 4: It's kind of another fight where he fought lesser competition,

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Speaker 4: has some good luck in terms of split decisions here,

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Speaker 4: but if you just look at the guys he wins,

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Speaker 4: he'd beat three straight guys who have all been cut

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Speaker 4: from the UFC, and then there's two more recent wins

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Speaker 4: are guys who are roughly five hundred in the USC,

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Speaker 4: where Barbosa has been fighting just a much higher level

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Speaker 4: of competition for a really long time. And I'm going

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Speaker 4: to get into a little mma math here, which I

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Speaker 4: don't love doing, but do more than I probably should.

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Speaker 4: They both fought Shane Burgos in twenty twenty one. Barbosa

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Speaker 4: knocked Burgos out, Quarantio lost to him. Now, Quarantio is

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Speaker 4: the younger fighter, but only by three years. He's still

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Speaker 4: thirty four. So with a fight that recent, I think

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Speaker 4: it's really hard to say that Quarantio has gotten so

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Speaker 4: much better or Barbosa has gotten so much worse in

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Speaker 4: that timeframe, just because they are so close in age.

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Speaker 4: It's not like Billy Cue as a prospect here. And

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Speaker 4: then when we can get the plus money and you know,

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Speaker 4: the one fifty range on Hudson, that's just too good

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Speaker 4: to pass up. I know Sean's on the same side.

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Speaker 4: He's probably gonna get a little more technical fight analysis

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Speaker 4: on it, but that's how I'm seeing it.

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Speaker 1: Borintillo five and two in UFC, the schedule a bit

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Speaker 1: weaker when you compare him to barbo So that's what

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Speaker 1: Billy's got written up as well. Zarrilla, how do you

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Speaker 1: want to bet this one?

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Speaker 3: So first round I think is going to be pretty

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Speaker 3: heavily Barbosa. I think he wins the first round at

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Speaker 3: a very high clip. Billy c very hittable. Barbosa five

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Speaker 3: inch reach advantage the much more technical striker. Maybe Billy's

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Speaker 3: a bit faster, but that reach advantage is too much

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Speaker 3: to negate any sort of speed differential. And in the

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Speaker 3: Shane Burgos fight, Burgos chopped Billy q's leg lead leg

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Speaker 3: to absolute bits. That is what Barbosa does to a t.

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Speaker 3: So he might take off Billy's lead leg in the

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Speaker 3: first round, sap his power completely, and from there it

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Speaker 3: would be very difficult for Billy to recover in the fight,

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Speaker 3: even though his best strength is fighting through adversity and

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Speaker 3: pacing opponents in the second and third round, after he

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Speaker 3: has basically played Ropo. Doope for a round with them

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Speaker 3: if you want peak price on Billy Quarantino. I would

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Speaker 3: not bet him as a private favorite prefight. I would

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Speaker 3: look to better live after round one, but I think

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Speaker 3: Barbosa is certainly the pre fight side made him closer

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Speaker 3: to plus one twenty. I do have some concerns about

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Speaker 3: the durability. I know Billy talked, but the age factor.

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Speaker 3: I don't think they're at the age, like Billy said,

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Speaker 3: where Billy Q is going to make significant improvements, but

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Speaker 3: Barbosa is at an age where his durability could fall

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Speaker 3: off rather dramatically knocked out by Gigo. Shakad's was starting

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Speaker 3: to come on in that fight until he got knocked out,

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Speaker 3: but he's thirty seven, may just get clipped and fall over.

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Speaker 3: It happens at this stage of the careers for guys.

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Speaker 3: I think he is the better fighter. The age dynamic

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Speaker 3: scares me off a bit, which is why I'm not

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Speaker 3: as heavy on it. We'll talk about this fight a

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Speaker 3: bit more in a different section, but at some Barbosa

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Speaker 3: I think the clear money one side of plus one fifty,

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Speaker 3: and I might look at his inside the distance props

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Speaker 3: as well.

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Speaker 1: Okay, more on that coming up. Let's go to the

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Speaker 1: prop market. Zarrella will start with you your favorite prop

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Speaker 1: on the board for UFC Kansas City.

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Speaker 3: Billy talked about the Pedro Munhias fight. I bet Peedro

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Speaker 3: Munho is by decision against Jean o'melly and he had

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Speaker 3: won the first round, and I'm not sure if he

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Speaker 3: was going to win the fight. It just seemed like

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Speaker 3: O'Malley was coming on in the second round. He moved

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Speaker 3: for the ipoe, starting to find his range. But this

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Speaker 3: fight against Chris Gutierrez his minus two hundred to reach

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Speaker 3: a decision, So you're telling me a fight is extremely

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Speaker 3: likely to reach a decision. Both of the fighters are

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Speaker 3: going to be competitive in that case, and one is

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Speaker 3: plus one fifty by decision, the other is plus four hundred.

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Speaker 3: So Pedro Muno's by decision at plus four hundred projected

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Speaker 3: this at plus three twenty five. I also like Billy

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Speaker 3: see value in his money line side. He's probably the

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Speaker 3: likelier finisher in the fight, which is why there is

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Speaker 3: the differential in the decision odds discrepancy. He hits really hard.

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Speaker 3: He has the better submission grappling, even though he never

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Speaker 3: searches for takedowns, and I think Gutierrez has this speed

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Speaker 3: and the reach advantage, so winning minutes could be difficult.

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Speaker 3: But these guys are going to leg kick each other

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Speaker 3: a lot. I think Munos hits a bit harder and

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Speaker 3: maybe he wins the fight on power optics. So rather

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Speaker 3: than betting Munio's on the money line at plus one

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Speaker 3: to eighty, I'll probably just sprinkle his decision prop at

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Speaker 3: better odds at plus four hundred. I think given the

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Speaker 3: fact that the fight is minus two hundred to reach

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Speaker 3: a decision, it makes it a pretty easy bet for me.

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Speaker 1: All Right, Good Tierra is entering with a four fight

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Speaker 1: win streak, eight fight unbeaten streak, but Ziillo go in

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Speaker 1: the other direction, Billy Ward, your favorite prop on the

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Speaker 1: board for the weekend.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, my favorite prop for this is the live angle

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Speaker 4: on the fight I'm about to talk about. But I

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Speaker 4: like to assume that you know, some people aren't watching live,

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Speaker 4: can't get down live because of the tape delay whatever,

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Speaker 4: So I'm looking at Tanner Boser in round three or

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Speaker 4: by decision at plus two fifty on Sanduel. I love

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Speaker 4: that feature on Sanduel where you can get either one,

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Speaker 4: two or three decision just because we can kind of

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Speaker 4: cover the bases we're looking at. But Boser is fighting

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Speaker 4: Elon Kuchlabo, who is a total round one monster. He

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Speaker 4: comes out, gets a tons of takedowns, gass himself out,

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Speaker 4: and if he doesn't finish you in round one or

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Speaker 4: sometimes even the first half of round one, it usually

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Speaker 4: goes pretty poorly for him. Bozer, on the other side,

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Speaker 4: pretty good cardio, especially for a bigger guy. But importantly,

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Speaker 4: he's cutting down from heavyweight to two five for this fight.

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Speaker 4: Normally I'm kind of against older fighters who drop away

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Speaker 4: class following the losing streak, just because it seems like

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Speaker 4: we're trying to fix the wrong thing rather than shoring

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Speaker 4: up the holes in our game. But Bozer was a

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Speaker 4: pretty small heavyweight. He was coming in lighter and lighter

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Speaker 4: for each of his fights, and he's looked better and

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Speaker 4: better for each of his fights. He's also kind of

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Speaker 4: the definition of a bad luck here. He has two

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Speaker 4: straight losses by split decision. His previous loss before that

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Speaker 4: was Andre Arloski. It was a unanimous decision, but people

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Speaker 4: were really upset by that one. Boz are outstruck Arloski

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Speaker 4: two to one in the fight and some I still

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Speaker 4: lost to the unanimous, so this one's going to be

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Speaker 4: real scary for him in the first round because Kudolov

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Speaker 4: is going to get a bunch of takedowns. I think

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Speaker 4: Boser has the size now that he's dropping the light

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Speaker 4: heavyweight where he'll be able to get back up and

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Speaker 4: be able to at least make Kudolav will work really

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Speaker 4: hard for those and I'm expecting the line after round

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Speaker 4: one to be even better than the plus two to

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Speaker 4: fifty on the round three decision. So that's my biggest interest.

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Speaker 4: But if you're taking a pre fight, you know the

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Speaker 4: over one and a half parlays, or the round three

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Speaker 4: in decision, or even just you know over one round,

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Speaker 4: sometimes you can get more granular than that time I'm

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Speaker 4: looking at it. So Bose are late also like his

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Speaker 4: I think he should probably be the favorite here, but

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Speaker 4: you can get way better odds on the live for

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Speaker 4: the late props.

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Speaker 1: You guys have been creative so far. I mean Zerillo

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Speaker 1: giving out the same game parlay basically UH, which FanDuel

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Speaker 1: does offer. Of course for the main event, you're got

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Speaker 1: a live angle, so you guys are finding interesting ways

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Speaker 1: to get involved here based on what's offered before the

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Speaker 1: fights begin. Let's close out with best bets. Zarillo, you're

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Speaker 1: going back to something we had already discussed. Barbosa and Quarantillo.

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Speaker 1: You've got an angle on this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I think the pace should be absolutely crazy in

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Speaker 3: this fight, similar to the anas Font fight from last week.

335
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Speaker 3: Even though it's a three round about these guys should

336
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Speaker 3: absolutely go to war. I don't think Billy Q knows

337
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Speaker 3: any other way. He comes righted opponents starts chucking strikes.

338
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Speaker 3: I think Barbosa is gonna hit him really hard and

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Speaker 3: put him on skates in the first round. Not sure

340
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Speaker 3: if he's going to finish him, but I know he's

341
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Speaker 3: going to completely take away that lead leg and look

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Speaker 3: to put Billy just roman skates to being a complete

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Speaker 3: statue in the second and third round where he can

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Speaker 3: tee off. So I could see an attritional stoppage for Barbosa.

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Speaker 3: I could also just see Billy Q knocking him out.

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Speaker 3: Even though I'm not super high on Billy's power, I

347
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Speaker 3: do think I hate saying Billy because I have Billy

348
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Speaker 3: Ward on the podcast. Think there's so many.

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Speaker 1: Billy, so many. There are so many things in this

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Speaker 1: podcast that can be clipped and we can just Billy's undervalued,

351
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Speaker 1: Billy size, Billy's this, Oh, it's fantastic.

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Speaker 3: In addition to the fact that he's not on video,

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Speaker 3: so it just looks like me and you talking Billy

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Speaker 3: up and get talking shit about Billy. Uh Yeah. So

355
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Speaker 3: you know, I think and I'm curious to hear Billy

356
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Speaker 3: Ward's take on both this fight in the main event

357
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Speaker 3: as well, because I think the pace and the fact

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Speaker 3: that the UFC put these fights in these slots on

359
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Speaker 3: this card, I expect both fights to be at extremely

360
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Speaker 3: high paces, and I know there's fighters in both fights

361
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Speaker 3: that we consider extremely durable Max Holloway, Billy Quarantillo, But

362
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Speaker 3: given the pace that these fights should take place that

363
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Speaker 3: I have a hard time envisioning both of them going

364
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Speaker 3: the distance, let alone one of them not finishing inside

365
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Speaker 3: the distance. So, Billy, in addition to your best bet

366
00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:11,800
Speaker 3: for this card, I just want to hear your take

367
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Speaker 3: on the inside the distance angles for both the main

368
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Speaker 3: event and the Comaine.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I definitely love it. In the comain event, you know,

370
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Speaker 4: you pointed out the durability concerns with Barbosa and to

371
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Speaker 4: an extent, Quarantino. I'm a little bit more hesitant in

372
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Speaker 4: the main event while it is five rounds. If I'm

373
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Speaker 4: Arnold Allen, I think the best plan here is to

374
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Speaker 4: try to slow this down as best you can, you know,

375
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Speaker 4: use some wall install just try to stay in close

376
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Speaker 4: and make this a bit more boring of a fight.

377
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Speaker 4: I don't know that that he's going to do that,

378
00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 4: but that's certainly what I would do if I was

379
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Speaker 4: him or in his camp. He's significantly physically stronger than

380
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Speaker 4: Mats Holloway, but you know, giving up some length in there,

381
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Speaker 4: that's how I would play it. So I'm a little

382
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Speaker 4: bit worried on that one, but one hundred percent agree

383
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Speaker 4: with you on the Quarantio right, just because you know

384
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Speaker 4: we got the leg case angle from Barbosa. Quarantio just

385
00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:00,800
Speaker 4: comes out and throws bombs. I could see that one

386
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Speaker 4: definitely ended pretty quick.

387
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Speaker 3: Yeah, he's surprised to me with this power against Moguli.

388
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Speaker 3: I didn't think he would knock out Gabriel Benita's and

389
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Speaker 3: you know that you were on that. I was on

390
00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:10,840
Speaker 3: quarantine on the money line, but I didn't expect to

391
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Speaker 3: knock out there, so kind of upgraded his power a

392
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Speaker 3: little bit for me.

393
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Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know, we've talked about both those guys

394
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Speaker 4: being a little on the older side, but power is

395
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Speaker 4: usually the last thing to go, so we don't have

396
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,399
Speaker 4: to worry about that, you know, in mid thirties with

397
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Speaker 4: these guys. But as far as my best bet, this

398
00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:29,359
Speaker 4: is another one. I'm gonna, you know, take the Schanzera

399
00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:32,320
Speaker 4: Loo disclaimer here and say this isn't really a best bet.

400
00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:34,159
Speaker 4: I kind of like all these equally. I'm playing them

401
00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:36,439
Speaker 4: all small because they're all plus money, But I do

402
00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:39,240
Speaker 4: like the raw dog Brandon roy Val. He's plus one

403
00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:41,119
Speaker 4: sixty on Sanduel. I think you can see him as

404
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,720
Speaker 4: high as plus one seventy plus one seventy five elsewhere.

405
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:46,840
Speaker 4: He's four and two in the UFC. Both of his losses,

406
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Speaker 4: or his two losses are to Brandon Moreno and Tantoja,

407
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Speaker 4: who are fighting each other for the title pretty soon.

408
00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,160
Speaker 4: But each of those losses kind of had a weird circumstance.

409
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,960
Speaker 4: He heard his shoulder against Moreno and was actually trying

410
00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,520
Speaker 4: to pop it back in while Moreno was h on

411
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Speaker 4: the ground, and the stop jumped in and stopped it

412
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,639
Speaker 4: with like a second left in the first round, where

413
00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:07,879
Speaker 4: he looked fine right after that once he got it

414
00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:09,160
Speaker 4: back in on the stool, he looked like he could

415
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:11,480
Speaker 4: have kept fighting, so that was a tough one. And

416
00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,119
Speaker 4: then Pantoja submitted him in the second round, but there

417
00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 4: was an ipoke like immediately before the takedown that led

418
00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:19,120
Speaker 4: to the submission that the ref miss. So he could

419
00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:21,240
Speaker 4: easily be six to zero in the USC right now.

420
00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,120
Speaker 4: Not that he was necessarily winning those fights, but when

421
00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:26,800
Speaker 4: we talk about fighters who had some bad luck, that's

422
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Speaker 4: about as high that can get. I also really like

423
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Speaker 4: his game. You know, he's a really good submission artist,

424
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Speaker 4: not a great wrestler, but he doesn't need to get

425
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 4: takedowns because he uses leg locks and other unorthodox subs

426
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Speaker 4: to try to get to a dominant position. I don't

427
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,520
Speaker 4: like when guys, you know, sacrifice good position to get

428
00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,439
Speaker 4: to a submission. I love when guys use submissions to

429
00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:48,640
Speaker 4: improve their position, which is something roy Val does really well.

430
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,160
Speaker 4: Also super durable. You know, Nicola has got a little

431
00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:54,000
Speaker 4: bit more power here, but roy VAL's never been finished.

432
00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,439
Speaker 4: Outside of those two fights where there's some weirdness going on.

433
00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 4: This is one that again pretty close to a coin

434
00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 4: flip in my book, and we're getting as high as

435
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,479
Speaker 4: you know, plus one sixty plus one seventy, so that's

436
00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:05,199
Speaker 4: a pretty easy half unit sprinkle for me.

437
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:10,320
Speaker 1: Excellent, very good, and Billy Ward's got his plays up

438
00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 1: as far as the luck ratings are concerned. He's got

439
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:15,879
Speaker 1: the angles there on the Action Network website and the

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00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:20,320
Speaker 1: Action Network app titled UFC Kansas City Luck Ratings gentlemen,

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00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 1: good stuff. That'll do it for our UFC Kansas City

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00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 1: betting preview. Here on the Action Network podcast, we are

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00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:29,359
Speaker 1: presented by Fandel find and this is worth bringing up

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00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:31,440
Speaker 1: as we normally bring up. You know, follow these guys

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00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:33,639
Speaker 1: in the app, especially when Billy's got a live play

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00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,800
Speaker 1: scenario that could come to fruition. You want to follow

447
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:39,680
Speaker 1: Shanzillo Billy Ward in the Action Network app. You can

448
00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:41,960
Speaker 1: download the app and you'll find their picks in there

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00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,199
Speaker 1: for free. Best of up with all your picks this

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00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 1: weekend and we'll see you next time on the Action

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00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:52,640
Speaker 1: Network podcast. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

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Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred Gambler