WEBVTT - The Midterm Sprint with Chris Wilson 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:03.160 Do you guys feel it. We're in the mid term 0:00:03.480 --> 0:00:06.000 sprint right now. We are heading into one of the 0:00:06.040 --> 0:00:09.879 most consequential elections of our lifetime. You know the stakes. 0:00:09.960 --> 0:00:13.360 I know the stakes. We've seen what this administration has done. 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:17.280 Joe Biden has destroyed our country in two years. Did 0:00:17.280 --> 0:00:19.079 you ever think he could do this much damage in 0:00:19.120 --> 0:00:22.360 such a short period of time. We've got record high inflation, 0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:25.400 gas prices are up, the indoctrination of kids in schools. 0:00:25.400 --> 0:00:28.080 We've got the d o J and the FBI targeting 0:00:28.560 --> 0:00:34.400 patriotic Americans. So everything is at stake on November eight. Everything, 0:00:35.440 --> 0:00:38.800 the future of this country, the future of your kids. 0:00:38.640 --> 0:00:41.479 It's the life or death scenario. When we see the 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:46.040 d o J and the FBI targeting patriotic Americans. Everything 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:48.680 is at stake this November. And what I don't want 0:00:48.680 --> 0:00:51.240 to happen is for people to get demoralized because you're 0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:55.280 watching the media, You're you're reading what they're printing about 0:00:55.280 --> 0:00:57.920 this election. Because they are wrong. They're wrong about what's 0:00:57.960 --> 0:00:59.640 happening in the country right now. They're going to be 0:00:59.640 --> 0:01:03.240 wrong again on November eight. I'm telling you this, go 0:01:03.280 --> 0:01:06.800 back to look at the mistakes that were made in 0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:11.400 pulling in. There was a report from the American Association 0:01:11.600 --> 0:01:16.360 for Public Opinion Research finding that national surveys in were 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:20.200 the least accurate in forty years. State polls were the 0:01:20.280 --> 0:01:23.720 least accurate in two decades. I mean, you can look 0:01:23.720 --> 0:01:26.960 at polls heading into the election. ABC had Joe Biden 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:31.520 winning Wisconsin by seventeen He won by less than a point. 0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:35.520 Even in Florida. The Real Clear Politics average, which it's 0:01:35.560 --> 0:01:37.600 not the fault of the Real Clear Politics Average, it's 0:01:37.680 --> 0:01:40.839 it's the fault of the pollsters that they're averaging out, 0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:43.520 but it had Joe Biden up by one point two 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:47.480 in Florida. Biden lost big to Trump. Trump won with 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:52.360 a margin of three point four percent. And there's examples 0:01:52.400 --> 0:01:54.360 across the country. I don't want to bore you, but 0:01:54.400 --> 0:01:56.280 the point is they got it wrong. Why did they 0:01:56.280 --> 0:01:59.720 get it wrong. My opinion of why they got it 0:01:59.720 --> 0:02:04.080 wrong they wanted to get it wrong. Their intent is 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:06.800 not to capture the election, it's to shape the election, 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:12.320 and it works. We saw this in Arizona recently, where 0:02:12.320 --> 0:02:14.440 you have Blake Masters. If you listen to the polls, 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:18.200 he's in striking distance. I think he's probably up in Arizona. 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:20.000 To be perfectly honest with you, but we saw the 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:23.000 impact of what this public polling does. You had Mitch 0:02:23.080 --> 0:02:27.640 McConnell's superpack, the Senate Leadership Fund. They canceled nine point 0:02:27.720 --> 0:02:30.959 six million dollars in television ads for Blake Master in 0:02:31.000 --> 0:02:34.240 the Arizona Senate race. Why do you think they did that? One, 0:02:34.440 --> 0:02:38.040 I think Mitch McConnell would rather be in charge in 0:02:38.080 --> 0:02:41.080 the minority than lose. You know, they no longer be 0:02:41.160 --> 0:02:44.880 the Senate majority leader if Republicans were to win. But 0:02:45.040 --> 0:02:49.040 also because these posters who get it wrong intentionally, they 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:52.320 make an impact. They shape dollars going into these campaigns. 0:02:52.360 --> 0:02:56.200 They shape people's desire to donate. If they don't think 0:02:56.240 --> 0:02:58.520 that a candidate can win, they're not going to donate. 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:02.960 It discourages voters and thinking, oh, I don't know, I'm 0:03:03.000 --> 0:03:04.600 looking at the polls. I don't think my guy can 0:03:04.680 --> 0:03:07.160 pull it. Dosh, Should I just sit home? And that's 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:10.480 the intent, that's the intent by behind a lot of 0:03:10.520 --> 0:03:15.040 these public opinion posters getting it so wrong. I mean, 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:20.480 you still have posters doing registered voter surveys, which is moronic. 0:03:20.560 --> 0:03:22.720 There there's no reason every poster should be doing likely 0:03:22.800 --> 0:03:26.880 voter survey. So the point is a lot of these people, 0:03:27.000 --> 0:03:29.560 a lot of these public opinion posters, they're trying to 0:03:29.600 --> 0:03:31.639 impact the way you see the elector. They're not trying 0:03:31.680 --> 0:03:36.760 to tell you what's actually happening, and it's intentional. So 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:39.200 what I'm gonna do today is bring someone on who 0:03:39.240 --> 0:03:41.760 I know is going to give you the truth. And 0:03:41.800 --> 0:03:43.480 I know this because I used to work for them 0:03:43.520 --> 0:03:47.280 before I got into Before I got into television and 0:03:47.320 --> 0:03:49.640 the media, I worked in politics. I worked on Capitol 0:03:49.720 --> 0:03:52.400 Hill for a number of years. I worked on campaigns, 0:03:52.560 --> 0:03:56.360 top Senate races, and I was also a vice president 0:03:56.440 --> 0:03:59.760 of polling. And I worked for this guy, Chris Wilson. 0:04:00.560 --> 0:04:03.080 He's the founder and CEO of a company called w 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:07.040 p A Intelligence. The guy is good. Right in one 0:04:07.080 --> 0:04:09.320 he was named Poster of the Year by the American 0:04:09.320 --> 0:04:13.200 Association of Political Consultants for his work. He also did 0:04:13.240 --> 0:04:17.039 predictive analytics on the Glenn Yucan for Governor campaign. He 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:21.640 worked for Cruises campaign in Obviously he did very well there, 0:04:21.640 --> 0:04:23.680 didn't win. Trump pulled it out. But point bing is, 0:04:23.720 --> 0:04:25.680 this guy is good. A lot of this stuff he 0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:29.200 does is for private clients, which means that he puts 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:30.880 in a lot more leg work to make sure that 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:33.080 he's getting things right, unlike a lot of these public 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:36.159 opinion posters. But the point of this podcast is to 0:04:36.200 --> 0:04:39.640 tell you that we have which you guys know at home, 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:42.120 everyone listening to this knows we have the most important election. 0:04:42.200 --> 0:04:44.800 This is for everything, This is for the future of 0:04:44.800 --> 0:04:46.479 our country. I don't have kids yet. What kind of 0:04:46.520 --> 0:04:50.640 country am I going to be bringing children into by 0:04:50.640 --> 0:04:53.520 the time I give birth? And I have kids and 0:04:53.520 --> 0:04:55.520 I gotta find a husband for so we're talking. You know, 0:04:55.520 --> 0:04:57.640 there's a little bit to go here in terms of timing. 0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:01.840 But this election is important. We all feel what everyone listening. 0:05:01.880 --> 0:05:04.880 We know how important this election is. So I don't 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:07.719 want you to be discouraged because we are being lied 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:11.400 to and it's intentional. So the point of this podcast 0:05:11.480 --> 0:05:13.520 is to bring someone on who is going to tell 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:15.280 us the truth, who's going to get to the bottom 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:19.000 of what's actually happening, what the actual dynamics are at 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:22.279 play with the actual electorate looks like as we head 0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:25.919 into this midterm sprint. So that's what we're gonna do 0:05:25.920 --> 0:05:39.440 today with Chris Wilson. Stay tuned, Chris Wilson, It's been 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:42.440 a while since we've caught up. A lot's happened, like 0:05:42.600 --> 0:05:46.080 you know, the destruction of the country and everything following apart. 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:51.640 It's it's really bad. As you know, Chris, you've been 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:54.680 following this stuff for a really long time. Look at 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:58.239 the landscape, the political landscape today. Where do things fall? 0:05:58.480 --> 0:06:00.120 What does it look like to you? Is you are 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:02.880 looking at pulling every day? Well, it's you know, the 0:06:02.920 --> 0:06:05.479 one thing that I have the benefit of that most 0:06:05.480 --> 0:06:08.880 people don't is the leading indicator of every morning when 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:10.520 I walk in is you know this least that used 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:13.440 to work with me. Is we've got pulling from all 0:06:13.440 --> 0:06:16.840 over the country. And as you saw in the New 0:06:16.920 --> 0:06:21.080 York Times poll this weekend, the Republicans have a republic 0:06:21.160 --> 0:06:23.919 can go back ahead in the generic ballot. Now, we 0:06:24.040 --> 0:06:27.240 saw that happen uh here at w P A Intelligence 0:06:27.320 --> 0:06:30.160 probably about a week before the New York Times did. 0:06:30.839 --> 0:06:33.640 And that is because we're seeing it directly from campaigns. 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:35.960 And so when you look at a national poll, as 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:39.159 you're well aware that you're gonna it's gonna be heavily 0:06:39.240 --> 0:06:43.359 influenced by number, by the sampling that goes on in 0:06:43.760 --> 0:06:46.320 states like New York or California that are a lot 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:48.440 of the sample size from national So it's always gonna 0:06:48.440 --> 0:06:50.280 be a little bit trailing of what we're going to 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:54.200 see from an individual race. And it has. I have 0:06:54.279 --> 0:06:57.679 been optimistic now for probably about two and a half weeks, 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:01.679 and that is what makes it um makes me bullish 0:07:01.839 --> 0:07:03.920 on not just the House, but also the Senate. And 0:07:04.000 --> 0:07:05.920 I think the Republicans are going to have a very 0:07:05.960 --> 0:07:09.080 good night. Uh here, what are we out? Now? How 0:07:09.120 --> 0:07:11.520 many days out? I should notice by heart since I'm 0:07:11.600 --> 0:07:15.120 gonna finally come up for air exactly, and it is. 0:07:15.360 --> 0:07:17.240 I think we're gonna You're gonna see Republicans win a 0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:19.840 lot of races that nobody's expecting. I give an example 0:07:19.920 --> 0:07:21.880 that it's one I'll mention when I'm not involveding's a 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:23.720 little bit easier to quote of somebody else's numbers on 0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:27.840 my own. But Lezeldon for governor of New York. Uh 0:07:27.880 --> 0:07:30.480 he is right now within the margin of error against 0:07:30.520 --> 0:07:33.920 the Democrat income of governor. That is shocking. If anyone 0:07:33.920 --> 0:07:36.320 had told you or me at the beginning the cycle 0:07:36.760 --> 0:07:39.240 that Republicans could pick up the governorship in New York, 0:07:39.400 --> 0:07:41.440 we would have just laughed and said, yeah, no chance, 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:43.480 and people laughed at Les Eldon when he left Congress 0:07:43.520 --> 0:07:45.720 to go run for it. Yet I think that is 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:47.840 likely to happen, and so I think you're gonna see 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:52.880 a sweep here on November eight, at the same level 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:56.840 that Republicans saw in n and two thousand ten and 0:07:57.000 --> 0:07:59.960 two thousand fourteen, and potentially even better because you've got 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:01.400 things going on. As you know that, we look up 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:03.840 this morning and find out that Joe Biden is pretty 0:08:03.880 --> 0:08:07.000 much emptying out the strategic oil reserve. And let's not 0:08:07.240 --> 0:08:10.360 let's not forget. This is the strategic oil reserve that 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:13.480 Donald Trump and Republicans in the House and Senate tried 0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:17.600 to refiel refill, right but just a couple of short 0:08:17.680 --> 0:08:20.520 years ago, and Democrats blocked him from doing it doing 0:08:20.560 --> 0:08:23.120 it because they didn't want him to get a win. So, 0:08:23.200 --> 0:08:25.080 as you mentioned, the level of destructions going on our 0:08:25.080 --> 0:08:29.000 company and country right now is almost at the catastrophic level. 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:33.120 Democrats blocked improvement levels, blocked building wall blocks, like I said, 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:36.439 refilling the strategic oil reserves. And now you've got Democrats 0:08:36.440 --> 0:08:40.000 tapped reaping what they have sown in that they shut 0:08:40.040 --> 0:08:42.440 down our energy independence. We have to import oil, and 0:08:42.480 --> 0:08:46.160 so they're emptying out what Republicans put into it. You see, 0:08:47.240 --> 0:08:50.440 you see migrants of flooding our borders. Everyone's coming into 0:08:50.480 --> 0:08:55.480 our borders. And Democrats now doing declaring states of emergency 0:08:55.520 --> 0:08:57.280 because Republicans are like, all right, enough, if you want, 0:08:57.480 --> 0:08:59.520 you can declare in New York City or washing d 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:02.560 C or Caglos the sanctuary city or sanctuary state. We'll 0:09:02.559 --> 0:09:04.880 ship them your way. And now they were, hold on, 0:09:04.920 --> 0:09:06.200 we were just kidding, what didn't know what I mean that? 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:09.600 So I do. I am very optimistic about what's going 0:09:09.640 --> 0:09:11.960 to happen, and I think, you know, one more thing, 0:09:12.200 --> 0:09:15.079 I'll mention and then I'll shut up. Is the biggest 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:18.280 shift we have seen over the course of the last 0:09:18.320 --> 0:09:21.199 few weeks is with independent women. And make no mistake, 0:09:21.240 --> 0:09:26.800 independent women were our loss with and I'll even categorizing 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:30.120 geographically suburban independent women was almost catastrophe back in two 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:32.800 thousand and eighteen. And I would have thought it would 0:09:32.800 --> 0:09:38.680 take a generation to see that undo itself. But COVID shutdowns, 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:45.520 educational shutdowns, and Joe Biden's incompetence baffling presidency elected Glenn 0:09:45.600 --> 0:09:48.480 Yuncan who I was involved in his race back in 0:09:48.600 --> 0:09:51.040 last cycle. And it's going to have the impact of 0:09:51.080 --> 0:09:54.520 a almost a Republican suite coming here in a couple 0:09:54.520 --> 0:09:56.480 of short weeks. Well, and you mentioned, you know, two 0:09:56.480 --> 0:09:58.960 thousands ten, I was at the NRCC there where, you know, 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:01.200 you do have when you have these wave elections, as 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:03.360 you've experienced, you know, you you pick up seats you 0:10:03.400 --> 0:10:06.360 weren't expecting. And we've got you know, Joe Biden has 0:10:06.400 --> 0:10:10.960 been in Oregon campaigning for the Democrat candidate candidate there, 0:10:11.080 --> 0:10:14.520 and Christine Drayson, the Republican candidate, has a shot. Now 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:17.439 there's a third. You know, there's an independent Rudding who's 0:10:17.440 --> 0:10:19.920 sort of playing spoiler there as well. But I mean, 0:10:19.960 --> 0:10:22.360 the fact that Joe Biden is in Oregon says a 0:10:22.400 --> 0:10:25.719 lot about what's coming. You know, how big of a 0:10:25.800 --> 0:10:27.920 suite do you think it could be? I mean, I 0:10:28.000 --> 0:10:30.560 know these things are tough to tell, but you know, 0:10:30.600 --> 0:10:32.960 if it was today, how big do you think this 0:10:32.960 --> 0:10:35.280 thing could be? I think you would see Republicans pick 0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:37.679 up in the mid thirties in the House. I think 0:10:37.720 --> 0:10:41.040 you would see them pick up and not just hold seats. Remember, 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:44.240 they've got a hold seats like Pennsylvania where you've got 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:48.120 dr Osy and Studman where he Fedderman had a double 0:10:48.160 --> 0:10:51.439 digit lead for a long time. It's now margin of air. Uh, 0:10:51.800 --> 0:10:54.520 not just hold states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, that where your 0:10:54.600 --> 0:10:56.680 Republicans retired, but go pick up. I think you're gonna 0:10:56.679 --> 0:11:02.600 see Republicans pick up seats in Nevada, in Georgia, in Uh. 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:04.880 I mean, Arizona is getting tied. You've got Kelly only 0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:06.959 at one point over Masters. You've I think these Masters 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:09.040 ends up winning. So I think you can see Republicans 0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:12.280 pick up two to five seats in the Senate and 0:11:12.320 --> 0:11:15.520 then the governor's level. And that is that's the one 0:11:15.520 --> 0:11:17.880 place that I really just don't have a good feel 0:11:18.000 --> 0:11:21.679 because it is like you said, you mentioned Oregon. Uh. 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:23.679 You know, if you're not doing the pulling yourself there, 0:11:23.720 --> 0:11:26.160 you're not aware. I think I think you're gonna see 0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:29.160 Gretchen WiBro loose in Michigan, for example, and nobody would 0:11:29.160 --> 0:11:32.600 have seen that a while back. You've got carry Lake, 0:11:32.640 --> 0:11:36.080 who is up now in Arizona over Hobbs. We pulled 0:11:36.120 --> 0:11:39.480 out this morning from the Daily Wire has carry Lake 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:42.120 up three points. I mean It is just it's shocking 0:11:42.200 --> 0:11:44.920 to see how much movement is taking place here in 0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:46.880 the course of the last week or so. The only 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:49.439 thing that worries me about Pennsylvania, and I'd love to 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:52.240 get your opinion on this, is you have Master Roano, 0:11:52.480 --> 0:11:55.560 the candidate running for governor, who's behind by like double 0:11:55.640 --> 0:11:58.719 digits and pulling right now. So how much would that 0:11:58.880 --> 0:12:01.680 impact Oz, who is within the margin of error at 0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:04.400 least that's what it looks like in pulling. Conversely, you 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:07.640 have a situation in Georgia where Brian camp is up 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:10.840 by you know, six seven, you know, I think six 0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:13.960 in the real clear politics average, who could then pull 0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:16.679 herschel Walker with him? So so talk about that dynamic 0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:20.520 and how that could play out in your estimation. Well, 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:23.079 it's interesting in terms of the way and uh hopefully 0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:25.520 remember some of us whenever you worked with us, and 0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:27.520 when you write a poll, you write it to where 0:12:27.800 --> 0:12:30.079 the it's the questions are asked and the order the 0:12:30.120 --> 0:12:32.559 ballot is asked and a Pennsylvania, as you point out, 0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:35.200 the governor's race is is at the top of the ballot. 0:12:35.960 --> 0:12:39.760 But I'm less pessimistic about mass Triano, I think than 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:43.960 most people are and it is. I know him, I've helped, 0:12:44.000 --> 0:12:45.559 I've been involved in the race. I wouldn't say I'm 0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:47.559 directly involved like I usually when I've done a couple 0:12:47.559 --> 0:12:50.120 of pulls for him along the way. I wish I 0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:51.800 was more involved because, frankly, I think he is a 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:56.120 he is someone who's painted unfairly by the media. He 0:12:56.320 --> 0:13:00.760 is he's a soldier, a blee, he's a PhDs at 0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:03.360 least a master's degree. He's a brilliant man, and he's someone, 0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:06.520 like I said, has been painted unfairly. And I do 0:13:06.720 --> 0:13:09.160 think he ends up pulling out that race. So I 0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:11.040 think it'll be close, but I do think he and 0:13:11.120 --> 0:13:13.800 Oz both win because I believe you're gonna see turnout 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:18.480 in the rural areas of Pennsylvania where Governor Wolfe shut 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:23.559 down schools and it was a really disastrous for a 0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:26.679 lot of families that are now dealing with trying to 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:31.200 get their kids back up to speed. Uh from educational standpoints, 0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:33.760 I think you're gonna see people in the rural and 0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:37.959 suburban areas that would have voted for Shapiro, the Democrat nominee, 0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:40.080 who are gonna say, you know what, I'm not going 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:43.000 to let another Democrat destroy my child's education and vote 0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:45.360 from Mastrolano instead of that. And I think so I 0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:48.560 believe Oz and master Anio will actually both end up winning. 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:50.480 I don't. I'm not gonna make prediction on who wins 0:13:50.559 --> 0:13:53.000 up pointing about more right likely it would be Oz. 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:55.679 But we've been shocked in those situations before. And as 0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:58.160 you mentioned, I mean, Brian camp Has has run a 0:13:58.200 --> 0:14:00.959 great campaign. I would say, stay see Abrams is run 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:03.199 the kind of campaign she ran last time. She spends 0:14:03.200 --> 0:14:05.640 a lot of time complaining about the last election. And 0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:08.199 you know, she's really the one true election denier in 0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:11.439 the United States these days, and I think kimp is 0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:14.480 appointed by you don't hear about that from the media now, 0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:16.720 You're really don't. And that's what I love about Carry Lakes. There, 0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:18.760 the Republican nominee who is a former member of the 0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:21.200 media in Arizona. Every time somebody asked her about being 0:14:21.240 --> 0:14:23.960 an election doesn't denier, they asked, She asked, when's the 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:25.680 last times when I asked Stacy Abrams about that? And 0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:28.000 of course the answer is never, because they won't. So 0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:30.960 it is It's really nice to see somebody who is 0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:33.080 able to turn that around on the media the way 0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:35.360 that the way that she does. But I do think 0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:37.160 Kimp wins by double digits. So because of that, I 0:14:37.200 --> 0:14:40.280 think Hersha Washer wins Um wins as well. And the 0:14:40.320 --> 0:14:43.880 beauty of Georgia is they changed the way their elections 0:14:43.960 --> 0:14:47.400 are counted and to some extent and conducted. But you know, 0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:49.080 the whole thing about oh they made it unfair, that 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:53.440 was completely proven false. During the primaries, you had record turnout, 0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:56.840 and so we're gonna know on election night what happens 0:14:56.880 --> 0:14:59.880 in Georgia the same way we do in most Republican 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:02.120 in states. It seems to be the Democrats that have 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:05.400 trouble counting ballots for some reason, but it will be 0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:07.440 it won't be a situation like class time where we 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:09.520 have to wait, uh wait in a more an amount 0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:11.680 of time to find out who wins. And the other 0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:14.480 aspects on the Senate race in Georgia that you know, 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:16.760 I keep hearing people there are two independents in the race. 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:20.000 There's an independent and then there's a social worker policy 0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:22.680 or social communist political organizer who's on the ballot too, 0:15:23.440 --> 0:15:25.680 uh And so a lot of people have suggested that 0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:27.520 it might go to ROTHI and I don't think that 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:30.200 will be the case. I think Walker will get above there. 0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:34.000 Let's take a quick commercial break back with Chris Wilson 0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:41.440 on the other side. I wanted to ask you, you know, 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:44.040 you had mentioned the New York Times poll previously. I 0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:46.040 think a lot of people have, you know, sort of 0:15:46.120 --> 0:15:49.280 lost faith and most of our institution, including posters. I 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:50.840 know that, you know, because you do a lot of 0:15:50.960 --> 0:15:53.640 work for for private clients, You're putting an extra leg 0:15:53.680 --> 0:15:56.000 work that a lot of these public posters are doing. 0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:57.920 But yeah, I mean, we look at the election. You 0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:00.800 look at that report from the American Station for Public 0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:04.880 Opinion Research, and presidential polls were the least accurate, and 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:08.520 forty year state polls were or were the least accurate 0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:11.040 in two decades. I mean, we still have posters doing 0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:14.840 registered voter surveys right now. So I mean, kind of 0:16:15.120 --> 0:16:18.080 what's your broader take on some of these public opinion 0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:21.480 posters and why they seem to keep getting things wrong? 0:16:22.120 --> 0:16:24.840 You know, at least it's a really important question, and 0:16:25.320 --> 0:16:27.960 it's one that I struggled to answer because, as you mentioned, 0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:33.320 you do still have posters political particularly media posters that 0:16:33.640 --> 0:16:36.880 are doing registered voter sampling. And what that means for 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:39.040 anybody of you who is uh, you know, he doesn't 0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:40.640 follow this stuff as closely as least than I do. 0:16:40.960 --> 0:16:44.520 It means that what is uh, they're talking to just 0:16:44.640 --> 0:16:47.240 anyone who's a registered voter, and in some cases they're 0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:49.600 talking to adults and asking them the registered to vote, 0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:52.720 which means about of people they talked to are lyine. 0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:55.480 So the right way to do a poll right now 0:16:55.680 --> 0:16:58.520 is to build a predictive model and then take that 0:16:58.640 --> 0:17:01.920 predictive model and to those who are most likely to vote. Now, 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:04.239 that is how we do ours. And it is as 0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:07.359 you say, it's very different. Uh, what we see is 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:11.600 very different than what most most media puts out. And 0:17:12.160 --> 0:17:16.480 it's really there are crimes of comission and crimes of omission. 0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:18.879 And the question is is what's going on on the 0:17:19.000 --> 0:17:22.800 press side. Are they trying to create polls that showed 0:17:22.880 --> 0:17:27.199 the Democrat winning? And I would submit to you is both. Unfortunately, 0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:30.720 I don't think that anyone could have done a poll 0:17:31.480 --> 0:17:34.520 in the state of Wisconsin that had Joe Biden up 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:36.480 eighteen points the weekend before the election the way the 0:17:36.520 --> 0:17:38.960 Washington Post did. And you guys can fact checking on 0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:41.359 this go google it. Washington Post the weekend before the 0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:45.679 election had Joe Biden up eighteen points. He won by 0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:48.280 lesson a point. I think it is very difficult for 0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:51.840 anyone to argue that that had no impact on voters. 0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:54.720 If you believe that there that the candidate you were 0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:57.280 supporting is going to lose by double digits, it is 0:17:57.440 --> 0:17:59.920 likely to have an impact on whether or not you 0:18:00.080 --> 0:18:02.680 turn out and vote. And so that being the case, 0:18:02.800 --> 0:18:05.879 I think it is UM it's unfortunate that we have 0:18:05.960 --> 0:18:08.520 to answer this question because it does create uh, it 0:18:08.720 --> 0:18:13.920 creates skepticism in our industry, and it creates a situation 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:18.280 where you uh, where people just don't take polling seriously anymore. 0:18:18.680 --> 0:18:21.800 And as you know, that should not be the case 0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:25.679 because right now we UM, we are very good at 0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:28.240 predicting what happens for our clients. And in fact, you 0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:31.399 won't stay working in the political point industry if you 0:18:31.480 --> 0:18:33.800 tell the candidate they're gonna win and they lose, and 0:18:33.920 --> 0:18:36.639 just it's pretty fundamentally the case is that you've got 0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:39.520 to be right on these things. So what has happened? 0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:41.480 It gets back to your original question, what is happening? 0:18:42.200 --> 0:18:44.480 The question is I just don't know, because I don't 0:18:44.520 --> 0:18:46.880 know what they're doing that to make it so wrong 0:18:47.240 --> 0:18:49.600 that how could you create a situation or a poll 0:18:49.680 --> 0:18:51.480 that shows Joe Biden when in my eighteen points where 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:53.320 wins by less than a point. And that's not the 0:18:53.400 --> 0:18:55.399 only place that happened, by the way, I'll give you 0:18:55.400 --> 0:18:59.360 a few other examples. In the Arizona election, the point 0:18:59.400 --> 0:19:01.520 average at the end and had Kelly winning by six, 0:19:01.640 --> 0:19:05.199 the only one by two. Uh. In Georgia they had 0:19:05.240 --> 0:19:07.959 were off by almost ten points. And particularly special election 0:19:08.400 --> 0:19:11.199 in Iowa, the public polling had the Democrat winning by 0:19:11.280 --> 0:19:14.520 two and in the average did Johnny Arts won by six. 0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:17.159 In Maine, the public pollint had get In winning by 0:19:17.240 --> 0:19:21.000 six uh, collinses and Collins one by nine. And I'll 0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:22.440 give you one more and I'll shut up about it. 0:19:22.560 --> 0:19:25.040 The public polling in North Carolina had cunning him winning 0:19:25.040 --> 0:19:28.080 by four, tell us one by two. So you go 0:19:28.240 --> 0:19:31.000 through all those different situations and you look at well, 0:19:31.040 --> 0:19:33.320 how could they be so wrong? And the answer is, 0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:35.440 I just don't know. But I will say this, when 0:19:35.480 --> 0:19:37.320 you look at public polling this year that has a 0:19:37.359 --> 0:19:39.719 close race or has a Democratic by a little bit, 0:19:40.040 --> 0:19:42.440 if I was betting on the predicted markets, and I don't. 0:19:42.720 --> 0:19:45.720 I was then on the Republican because there's something going 0:19:45.800 --> 0:19:50.280 on in public media polling that tradition that just consistently 0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:52.919 favors the Democrats. And I can tell you our internal 0:19:52.960 --> 0:19:55.040 polling does not show that, does not do that. It 0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:59.160 is um. It is meticulous, and its approach to making 0:19:59.200 --> 0:20:02.840 sure that we are adequately sampling enough enough of every 0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:05.320 party and that we're actually talking to people who are 0:20:05.359 --> 0:20:08.040 going to vote. And that's challenging right now because particularly 0:20:08.080 --> 0:20:10.000 when you look at who's going to vote in an 0:20:10.040 --> 0:20:12.440 off your election like two, and you look at the 0:20:12.600 --> 0:20:16.120 enthusiasm numbers twin Republicans and Democrats, if you are doing 0:20:16.200 --> 0:20:18.880 a sample which is the last off your election, which 0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:21.320 is what most media polling is probably doing, you are 0:20:21.359 --> 0:20:24.000 going to oversample Democrats. And that's going to be proved 0:20:24.040 --> 0:20:27.679 to be as inaccurate today as it was in twenty 0:20:27.880 --> 0:20:32.440 six and and uh so it's just really it's a problem, 0:20:32.600 --> 0:20:35.280