1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,160 Speaker 1: Do you guys feel it. We're in the mid term 2 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:06,000 Speaker 1: sprint right now. We are heading into one of the 3 00:00:06,040 --> 00:00:09,879 Speaker 1: most consequential elections of our lifetime. You know the stakes. 4 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:13,360 Speaker 1: I know the stakes. We've seen what this administration has done. 5 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,280 Speaker 1: Joe Biden has destroyed our country in two years. Did 6 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:19,079 Speaker 1: you ever think he could do this much damage in 7 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 1: such a short period of time. We've got record high inflation, 8 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: gas prices are up, the indoctrination of kids in schools. 9 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 1: We've got the d o J and the FBI targeting 10 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: patriotic Americans. So everything is at stake on November eight. Everything, 11 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 1: the future of this country, the future of your kids. 12 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 1: It's the life or death scenario. When we see the 13 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: d o J and the FBI targeting patriotic Americans. Everything 14 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 1: is at stake this November. And what I don't want 15 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 1: to happen is for people to get demoralized because you're 16 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 1: watching the media, You're you're reading what they're printing about 17 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 1: this election. Because they are wrong. They're wrong about what's 18 00:00:57,960 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 1: happening in the country right now. They're going to be 19 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: wrong again on November eight. I'm telling you this, go 20 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: back to look at the mistakes that were made in 21 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:11,400 Speaker 1: pulling in. There was a report from the American Association 22 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 1: for Public Opinion Research finding that national surveys in were 23 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: the least accurate in forty years. State polls were the 24 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 1: least accurate in two decades. I mean, you can look 25 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:26,960 Speaker 1: at polls heading into the election. ABC had Joe Biden 26 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: winning Wisconsin by seventeen He won by less than a point. 27 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: Even in Florida. The Real Clear Politics average, which it's 28 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 1: not the fault of the Real Clear Politics Average, it's 29 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,839 Speaker 1: it's the fault of the pollsters that they're averaging out, 30 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 1: but it had Joe Biden up by one point two 31 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: in Florida. Biden lost big to Trump. Trump won with 32 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 1: a margin of three point four percent. And there's examples 33 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 1: across the country. I don't want to bore you, but 34 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 1: the point is they got it wrong. Why did they 35 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 1: get it wrong. My opinion of why they got it 36 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: wrong they wanted to get it wrong. Their intent is 37 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 1: not to capture the election, it's to shape the election, 38 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 1: and it works. We saw this in Arizona recently, where 39 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 1: you have Blake Masters. If you listen to the polls, 40 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 1: he's in striking distance. I think he's probably up in Arizona. 41 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 1: To be perfectly honest with you, but we saw the 42 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 1: impact of what this public polling does. You had Mitch 43 00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:27,640 Speaker 1: McConnell's superpack, the Senate Leadership Fund. They canceled nine point 44 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:30,959 Speaker 1: six million dollars in television ads for Blake Master in 45 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 1: the Arizona Senate race. Why do you think they did that? One, 46 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 1: I think Mitch McConnell would rather be in charge in 47 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 1: the minority than lose. You know, they no longer be 48 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: the Senate majority leader if Republicans were to win. But 49 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 1: also because these posters who get it wrong intentionally, they 50 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: make an impact. They shape dollars going into these campaigns. 51 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: They shape people's desire to donate. If they don't think 52 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:58,520 Speaker 1: that a candidate can win, they're not going to donate. 53 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 1: It discourages voters and thinking, oh, I don't know, I'm 54 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 1: looking at the polls. I don't think my guy can 55 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 1: pull it. Dosh, Should I just sit home? And that's 56 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 1: the intent, that's the intent by behind a lot of 57 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: these public opinion posters getting it so wrong. I mean, 58 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 1: you still have posters doing registered voter surveys, which is moronic. 59 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 1: There there's no reason every poster should be doing likely 60 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: voter survey. So the point is a lot of these people, 61 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 1: a lot of these public opinion posters, they're trying to 62 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 1: impact the way you see the elector. They're not trying 63 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 1: to tell you what's actually happening, and it's intentional. So 64 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 1: what I'm gonna do today is bring someone on who 65 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 1: I know is going to give you the truth. And 66 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: I know this because I used to work for them 67 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 1: before I got into Before I got into television and 68 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 1: the media, I worked in politics. I worked on Capitol 69 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 1: Hill for a number of years. I worked on campaigns, 70 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 1: top Senate races, and I was also a vice president 71 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: of polling. And I worked for this guy, Chris Wilson. 72 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:03,080 Speaker 1: He's the founder and CEO of a company called w 73 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 1: p A Intelligence. The guy is good. Right in one 74 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: he was named Poster of the Year by the American 75 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 1: Association of Political Consultants for his work. He also did 76 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:17,039 Speaker 1: predictive analytics on the Glenn Yucan for Governor campaign. He 77 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 1: worked for Cruises campaign in Obviously he did very well there, 78 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 1: didn't win. Trump pulled it out. But point bing is, 79 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 1: this guy is good. A lot of this stuff he 80 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: does is for private clients, which means that he puts 81 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 1: in a lot more leg work to make sure that 82 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 1: he's getting things right, unlike a lot of these public 83 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 1: opinion posters. But the point of this podcast is to 84 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 1: tell you that we have which you guys know at home, 85 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,120 Speaker 1: everyone listening to this knows we have the most important election. 86 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 1: This is for everything, This is for the future of 87 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:46,479 Speaker 1: our country. I don't have kids yet. What kind of 88 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 1: country am I going to be bringing children into by 89 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:53,520 Speaker 1: the time I give birth? And I have kids and 90 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 1: I gotta find a husband for so we're talking. You know, 91 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 1: there's a little bit to go here in terms of timing. 92 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:01,840 Speaker 1: But this election is important. We all feel what everyone listening. 93 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 1: We know how important this election is. So I don't 94 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:07,719 Speaker 1: want you to be discouraged because we are being lied 95 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 1: to and it's intentional. So the point of this podcast 96 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 1: is to bring someone on who is going to tell 97 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:15,280 Speaker 1: us the truth, who's going to get to the bottom 98 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 1: of what's actually happening, what the actual dynamics are at 99 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,279 Speaker 1: play with the actual electorate looks like as we head 100 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:25,919 Speaker 1: into this midterm sprint. So that's what we're gonna do 101 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 1: today with Chris Wilson. Stay tuned, Chris Wilson, It's been 102 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: a while since we've caught up. A lot's happened, like 103 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 1: you know, the destruction of the country and everything following apart. 104 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 1: It's it's really bad. As you know, Chris, you've been 105 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 1: following this stuff for a really long time. Look at 106 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:58,239 Speaker 1: the landscape, the political landscape today. Where do things fall? 107 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:00,120 Speaker 1: What does it look like to you? Is you are 108 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 1: looking at pulling every day? Well, it's you know, the 109 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:05,479 Speaker 1: one thing that I have the benefit of that most 110 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 1: people don't is the leading indicator of every morning when 111 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 1: I walk in is you know this least that used 112 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 1: to work with me. Is we've got pulling from all 113 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:16,840 Speaker 1: over the country. And as you saw in the New 114 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 1: York Times poll this weekend, the Republicans have a republic 115 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:23,919 Speaker 1: can go back ahead in the generic ballot. Now, we 116 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: saw that happen uh here at w P A Intelligence 117 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:30,160 Speaker 1: probably about a week before the New York Times did. 118 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 1: And that is because we're seeing it directly from campaigns. 119 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 1: And so when you look at a national poll, as 120 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:39,159 Speaker 1: you're well aware that you're gonna it's gonna be heavily 121 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:43,359 Speaker 1: influenced by number, by the sampling that goes on in 122 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 1: states like New York or California that are a lot 123 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 1: of the sample size from national So it's always gonna 124 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:50,280 Speaker 1: be a little bit trailing of what we're going to 125 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 1: see from an individual race. And it has. I have 126 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:57,679 Speaker 1: been optimistic now for probably about two and a half weeks, 127 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:01,679 Speaker 1: and that is what makes it um makes me bullish 128 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:03,920 Speaker 1: on not just the House, but also the Senate. And 129 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:05,920 Speaker 1: I think the Republicans are going to have a very 130 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 1: good night. Uh here, what are we out? Now? How 131 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:11,520 Speaker 1: many days out? I should notice by heart since I'm 132 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:15,120 Speaker 1: gonna finally come up for air exactly, and it is. 133 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 1: I think we're gonna You're gonna see Republicans win a 134 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: lot of races that nobody's expecting. I give an example 135 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:21,880 Speaker 1: that it's one I'll mention when I'm not involveding's a 136 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 1: little bit easier to quote of somebody else's numbers on 137 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 1: my own. But Lezeldon for governor of New York. Uh 138 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 1: he is right now within the margin of error against 139 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 1: the Democrat income of governor. That is shocking. If anyone 140 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 1: had told you or me at the beginning the cycle 141 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 1: that Republicans could pick up the governorship in New York, 142 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 1: we would have just laughed and said, yeah, no chance, 143 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 1: and people laughed at Les Eldon when he left Congress 144 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: to go run for it. Yet I think that is 145 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 1: likely to happen, and so I think you're gonna see 146 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 1: a sweep here on November eight, at the same level 147 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:56,840 Speaker 1: that Republicans saw in n and two thousand ten and 148 00:07:57,000 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: two thousand fourteen, and potentially even better because you've got 149 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 1: things going on. As you know that, we look up 150 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 1: this morning and find out that Joe Biden is pretty 151 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 1: much emptying out the strategic oil reserve. And let's not 152 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 1: let's not forget. This is the strategic oil reserve that 153 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 1: Donald Trump and Republicans in the House and Senate tried 154 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 1: to refiel refill, right but just a couple of short 155 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 1: years ago, and Democrats blocked him from doing it doing 156 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:23,120 Speaker 1: it because they didn't want him to get a win. So, 157 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:25,080 Speaker 1: as you mentioned, the level of destructions going on our 158 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 1: company and country right now is almost at the catastrophic level. 159 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 1: Democrats blocked improvement levels, blocked building wall blocks, like I said, 160 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:36,439 Speaker 1: refilling the strategic oil reserves. And now you've got Democrats 161 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 1: tapped reaping what they have sown in that they shut 162 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 1: down our energy independence. We have to import oil, and 163 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 1: so they're emptying out what Republicans put into it. You see, 164 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 1: you see migrants of flooding our borders. Everyone's coming into 165 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 1: our borders. And Democrats now doing declaring states of emergency 166 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: because Republicans are like, all right, enough, if you want, 167 00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 1: you can declare in New York City or washing d 168 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:02,560 Speaker 1: C or Caglos the sanctuary city or sanctuary state. We'll 169 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 1: ship them your way. And now they were, hold on, 170 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:06,200 Speaker 1: we were just kidding, what didn't know what I mean that? 171 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 1: So I do. I am very optimistic about what's going 172 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 1: to happen, and I think, you know, one more thing, 173 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,079 Speaker 1: I'll mention and then I'll shut up. Is the biggest 174 00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 1: shift we have seen over the course of the last 175 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:21,199 Speaker 1: few weeks is with independent women. And make no mistake, 176 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 1: independent women were our loss with and I'll even categorizing 177 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 1: geographically suburban independent women was almost catastrophe back in two 178 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: thousand and eighteen. And I would have thought it would 179 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:38,680 Speaker 1: take a generation to see that undo itself. But COVID shutdowns, 180 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 1: educational shutdowns, and Joe Biden's incompetence baffling presidency elected Glenn 181 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,480 Speaker 1: Yuncan who I was involved in his race back in 182 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 1: last cycle. And it's going to have the impact of 183 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: a almost a Republican suite coming here in a couple 184 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 1: of short weeks. Well, and you mentioned, you know, two 185 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:58,960 Speaker 1: thousands ten, I was at the NRCC there where, you know, 186 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 1: you do have when you have these wave elections, as 187 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 1: you've experienced, you know, you you pick up seats you 188 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: weren't expecting. And we've got you know, Joe Biden has 189 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 1: been in Oregon campaigning for the Democrat candidate candidate there, 190 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 1: and Christine Drayson, the Republican candidate, has a shot. Now 191 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:17,439 Speaker 1: there's a third. You know, there's an independent Rudding who's 192 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 1: sort of playing spoiler there as well. But I mean, 193 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 1: the fact that Joe Biden is in Oregon says a 194 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:25,719 Speaker 1: lot about what's coming. You know, how big of a 195 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: suite do you think it could be? I mean, I 196 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:30,560 Speaker 1: know these things are tough to tell, but you know, 197 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 1: if it was today, how big do you think this 198 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 1: thing could be? I think you would see Republicans pick 199 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:37,679 Speaker 1: up in the mid thirties in the House. I think 200 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 1: you would see them pick up and not just hold seats. Remember, 201 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:44,240 Speaker 1: they've got a hold seats like Pennsylvania where you've got 202 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 1: dr Osy and Studman where he Fedderman had a double 203 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:51,439 Speaker 1: digit lead for a long time. It's now margin of air. Uh, 204 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 1: not just hold states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, that where your 205 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:56,680 Speaker 1: Republicans retired, but go pick up. I think you're gonna 206 00:10:56,679 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 1: see Republicans pick up seats in Nevada, in Georgia, in Uh. 207 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 1: I mean, Arizona is getting tied. You've got Kelly only 208 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:06,959 Speaker 1: at one point over Masters. You've I think these Masters 209 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 1: ends up winning. So I think you can see Republicans 210 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: pick up two to five seats in the Senate and 211 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 1: then the governor's level. And that is that's the one 212 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:17,880 Speaker 1: place that I really just don't have a good feel 213 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:21,679 Speaker 1: because it is like you said, you mentioned Oregon. Uh. 214 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:23,679 Speaker 1: You know, if you're not doing the pulling yourself there, 215 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 1: you're not aware. I think I think you're gonna see 216 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 1: Gretchen WiBro loose in Michigan, for example, and nobody would 217 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 1: have seen that a while back. You've got carry Lake, 218 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:36,080 Speaker 1: who is up now in Arizona over Hobbs. We pulled 219 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 1: out this morning from the Daily Wire has carry Lake 220 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 1: up three points. I mean It is just it's shocking 221 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:44,920 Speaker 1: to see how much movement is taking place here in 222 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 1: the course of the last week or so. The only 223 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:49,439 Speaker 1: thing that worries me about Pennsylvania, and I'd love to 224 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 1: get your opinion on this, is you have Master Roano, 225 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 1: the candidate running for governor, who's behind by like double 226 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:58,719 Speaker 1: digits and pulling right now. So how much would that 227 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,680 Speaker 1: impact Oz, who is within the margin of error at 228 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 1: least that's what it looks like in pulling. Conversely, you 229 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 1: have a situation in Georgia where Brian camp is up 230 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:10,840 Speaker 1: by you know, six seven, you know, I think six 231 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 1: in the real clear politics average, who could then pull 232 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:16,679 Speaker 1: herschel Walker with him? So so talk about that dynamic 233 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 1: and how that could play out in your estimation. Well, 234 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:23,079 Speaker 1: it's interesting in terms of the way and uh hopefully 235 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 1: remember some of us whenever you worked with us, and 236 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:27,520 Speaker 1: when you write a poll, you write it to where 237 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:30,079 Speaker 1: the it's the questions are asked and the order the 238 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:32,559 Speaker 1: ballot is asked and a Pennsylvania, as you point out, 239 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:35,200 Speaker 1: the governor's race is is at the top of the ballot. 240 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 1: But I'm less pessimistic about mass Triano, I think than 241 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 1: most people are and it is. I know him, I've helped, 242 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:45,559 Speaker 1: I've been involved in the race. I wouldn't say I'm 243 00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:47,559 Speaker 1: directly involved like I usually when I've done a couple 244 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 1: of pulls for him along the way. I wish I 245 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:51,800 Speaker 1: was more involved because, frankly, I think he is a 246 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 1: he is someone who's painted unfairly by the media. He 247 00:12:56,320 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 1: is he's a soldier, a blee, he's a PhDs at 248 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 1: least a master's degree. He's a brilliant man, and he's someone, 249 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 1: like I said, has been painted unfairly. And I do 250 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 1: think he ends up pulling out that race. So I 251 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: think it'll be close, but I do think he and 252 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 1: Oz both win because I believe you're gonna see turnout 253 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 1: in the rural areas of Pennsylvania where Governor Wolfe shut 254 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:23,559 Speaker 1: down schools and it was a really disastrous for a 255 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:26,679 Speaker 1: lot of families that are now dealing with trying to 256 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:31,200 Speaker 1: get their kids back up to speed. Uh from educational standpoints, 257 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see people in the rural and 258 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:37,959 Speaker 1: suburban areas that would have voted for Shapiro, the Democrat nominee, 259 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,080 Speaker 1: who are gonna say, you know what, I'm not going 260 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 1: to let another Democrat destroy my child's education and vote 261 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: from Mastrolano instead of that. And I think so I 262 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 1: believe Oz and master Anio will actually both end up winning. 263 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 1: I don't. I'm not gonna make prediction on who wins 264 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 1: up pointing about more right likely it would be Oz. 265 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:55,679 Speaker 1: But we've been shocked in those situations before. And as 266 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 1: you mentioned, I mean, Brian camp Has has run a 267 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,959 Speaker 1: great campaign. I would say, stay see Abrams is run 268 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:03,199 Speaker 1: the kind of campaign she ran last time. She spends 269 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 1: a lot of time complaining about the last election. And 270 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:08,199 Speaker 1: you know, she's really the one true election denier in 271 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:11,439 Speaker 1: the United States these days, and I think kimp is 272 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: appointed by you don't hear about that from the media now, 273 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:16,720 Speaker 1: You're really don't. And that's what I love about Carry Lakes. There, 274 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 1: the Republican nominee who is a former member of the 275 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 1: media in Arizona. Every time somebody asked her about being 276 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:23,960 Speaker 1: an election doesn't denier, they asked, She asked, when's the 277 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 1: last times when I asked Stacy Abrams about that? And 278 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 1: of course the answer is never, because they won't. So 279 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 1: it is It's really nice to see somebody who is 280 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,080 Speaker 1: able to turn that around on the media the way 281 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 1: that the way that she does. But I do think 282 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 1: Kimp wins by double digits. So because of that, I 283 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 1: think Hersha Washer wins Um wins as well. And the 284 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 1: beauty of Georgia is they changed the way their elections 285 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 1: are counted and to some extent and conducted. But you know, 286 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 1: the whole thing about oh they made it unfair, that 287 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 1: was completely proven false. During the primaries, you had record turnout, 288 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 1: and so we're gonna know on election night what happens 289 00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 1: in Georgia the same way we do in most Republican 290 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 1: in states. It seems to be the Democrats that have 291 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 1: trouble counting ballots for some reason, but it will be 292 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 1: it won't be a situation like class time where we 293 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 1: have to wait, uh wait in a more an amount 294 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 1: of time to find out who wins. And the other 295 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 1: aspects on the Senate race in Georgia that you know, 296 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: I keep hearing people there are two independents in the race. 297 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:20,000 Speaker 1: There's an independent and then there's a social worker policy 298 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 1: or social communist political organizer who's on the ballot too, 299 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 1: uh And so a lot of people have suggested that 300 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: it might go to ROTHI and I don't think that 301 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 1: will be the case. I think Walker will get above there. 302 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 1: Let's take a quick commercial break back with Chris Wilson 303 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 1: on the other side. I wanted to ask you, you know, 304 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:44,040 Speaker 1: you had mentioned the New York Times poll previously. I 305 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: think a lot of people have, you know, sort of 306 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 1: lost faith and most of our institution, including posters. I 307 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 1: know that, you know, because you do a lot of 308 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:53,640 Speaker 1: work for for private clients, You're putting an extra leg 309 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 1: work that a lot of these public posters are doing. 310 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, we look at the election. You 311 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 1: look at that report from the American Station for Public 312 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: Opinion Research, and presidential polls were the least accurate, and 313 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 1: forty year state polls were or were the least accurate 314 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 1: in two decades. I mean, we still have posters doing 315 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 1: registered voter surveys right now. So I mean, kind of 316 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 1: what's your broader take on some of these public opinion 317 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 1: posters and why they seem to keep getting things wrong? 318 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 1: You know, at least it's a really important question, and 319 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 1: it's one that I struggled to answer because, as you mentioned, 320 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 1: you do still have posters political particularly media posters that 321 00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 1: are doing registered voter sampling. And what that means for 322 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 1: anybody of you who is uh, you know, he doesn't 323 00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 1: follow this stuff as closely as least than I do. 324 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 1: It means that what is uh, they're talking to just 325 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 1: anyone who's a registered voter, and in some cases they're 326 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 1: talking to adults and asking them the registered to vote, 327 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 1: which means about of people they talked to are lyine. 328 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 1: So the right way to do a poll right now 329 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:58,520 Speaker 1: is to build a predictive model and then take that 330 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 1: predictive model and to those who are most likely to vote. Now, 331 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:04,239 Speaker 1: that is how we do ours. And it is as 332 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 1: you say, it's very different. Uh, what we see is 333 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 1: very different than what most most media puts out. And 334 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:16,480 Speaker 1: it's really there are crimes of comission and crimes of omission. 335 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:18,879 Speaker 1: And the question is is what's going on on the 336 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 1: press side. Are they trying to create polls that showed 337 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:27,199 Speaker 1: the Democrat winning? And I would submit to you is both. Unfortunately, 338 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 1: I don't think that anyone could have done a poll 339 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:34,520 Speaker 1: in the state of Wisconsin that had Joe Biden up 340 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:36,480 Speaker 1: eighteen points the weekend before the election the way the 341 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:38,960 Speaker 1: Washington Post did. And you guys can fact checking on 342 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:41,359 Speaker 1: this go google it. Washington Post the weekend before the 343 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:45,679 Speaker 1: election had Joe Biden up eighteen points. He won by 344 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 1: lesson a point. I think it is very difficult for 345 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 1: anyone to argue that that had no impact on voters. 346 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 1: If you believe that there that the candidate you were 347 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 1: supporting is going to lose by double digits, it is 348 00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:59,920 Speaker 1: likely to have an impact on whether or not you 349 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,680 Speaker 1: turn out and vote. And so that being the case, 350 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:05,879 Speaker 1: I think it is UM it's unfortunate that we have 351 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,520 Speaker 1: to answer this question because it does create uh, it 352 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:13,920 Speaker 1: creates skepticism in our industry, and it creates a situation 353 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 1: where you uh, where people just don't take polling seriously anymore. 354 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 1: And as you know, that should not be the case 355 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:25,679 Speaker 1: because right now we UM, we are very good at 356 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 1: predicting what happens for our clients. And in fact, you 357 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:31,399 Speaker 1: won't stay working in the political point industry if you 358 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 1: tell the candidate they're gonna win and they lose, and 359 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 1: just it's pretty fundamentally the case is that you've got 360 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,520 Speaker 1: to be right on these things. So what has happened? 361 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 1: It gets back to your original question, what is happening? 362 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 1: The question is I just don't know, because I don't 363 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:46,880 Speaker 1: know what they're doing that to make it so wrong 364 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:49,600 Speaker 1: that how could you create a situation or a poll 365 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 1: that shows Joe Biden when in my eighteen points where 366 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:53,320 Speaker 1: wins by less than a point. And that's not the 367 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:55,399 Speaker 1: only place that happened, by the way, I'll give you 368 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:59,360 Speaker 1: a few other examples. In the Arizona election, the point 369 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 1: average at the end and had Kelly winning by six, 370 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:05,199 Speaker 1: the only one by two. Uh. In Georgia they had 371 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:07,959 Speaker 1: were off by almost ten points. And particularly special election 372 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,199 Speaker 1: in Iowa, the public polling had the Democrat winning by 373 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 1: two and in the average did Johnny Arts won by six. 374 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,159 Speaker 1: In Maine, the public pollint had get In winning by 375 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 1: six uh, collinses and Collins one by nine. And I'll 376 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:22,440 Speaker 1: give you one more and I'll shut up about it. 377 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 1: The public polling in North Carolina had cunning him winning 378 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:28,080 Speaker 1: by four, tell us one by two. So you go 379 00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:31,000 Speaker 1: through all those different situations and you look at well, 380 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 1: how could they be so wrong? And the answer is, 381 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:35,440 Speaker 1: I just don't know. But I will say this, when 382 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: you look at public polling this year that has a 383 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:39,719 Speaker 1: close race or has a Democratic by a little bit, 384 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,440 Speaker 1: if I was betting on the predicted markets, and I don't. 385 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,720 Speaker 1: I was then on the Republican because there's something going 386 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:50,280 Speaker 1: on in public media polling that tradition that just consistently 387 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:52,919 Speaker 1: favors the Democrats. And I can tell you our internal 388 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 1: polling does not show that, does not do that. It 389 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:59,160 Speaker 1: is um. It is meticulous, and its approach to making 390 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 1: sure that we are adequately sampling enough enough of every 391 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 1: party and that we're actually talking to people who are 392 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 1: going to vote. And that's challenging right now because particularly 393 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 1: when you look at who's going to vote in an 394 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:12,440 Speaker 1: off your election like two, and you look at the 395 00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:16,120 Speaker 1: enthusiasm numbers twin Republicans and Democrats, if you are doing 396 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,880 Speaker 1: a sample which is the last off your election, which 397 00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 1: is what most media polling is probably doing, you are 398 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 1: going to oversample Democrats. And that's going to be proved 399 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,679 Speaker 1: to be as inaccurate today as it was in twenty 400 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:32,440 Speaker 1: six and and uh so it's just really it's a problem, 401 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 1: I think for the polling community, and as you point out, 402 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:39,920 Speaker 1: is constantly um. It is constantly evaluated by the American 403 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:43,359 Speaker 1: Associates Public Opinion researchers, but nothing's really ever done about it. 404 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 1: I mean I'm jaded. So I personally believe it's intentional 405 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:49,240 Speaker 1: bias because we know how much of an impact these 406 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 1: polls have and mean, you you you've got you know, 407 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 1: don't like you had McConnell pull out of Arizona, right, So, 408 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:56,360 Speaker 1: like these guys are looking at the polling and they're 409 00:20:56,400 --> 00:21:00,119 Speaker 1: making decisions about what races to invest in. An Unfortunately, 410 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:01,879 Speaker 1: we could get to a scenario where one of these 411 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 1: races it's, you know, we lose by a point or 412 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:09,200 Speaker 1: we lose by you know, votes, and what would you know? 413 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:13,240 Speaker 1: And if you had originally kept that multimillion dollar investment 414 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:15,159 Speaker 1: that email, whatever it was, I forget what it was 415 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 1: in Arizona, we maybe we could have won it, right, 416 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 1: And so I intentionally think that these posters are trying 417 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:25,840 Speaker 1: to paint oblique outbook for Republicans to impact the overall election. 418 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:29,240 Speaker 1: It's just that Trump derangement syndrome, that Republican derangement syndrome. 419 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,960 Speaker 1: That's what that has seeped in to every aspect of 420 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,479 Speaker 1: our society. But I wanted to get your take on Uh, 421 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 1: you know, I'm hearing it's been tough. You know, I 422 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:41,119 Speaker 1: think it was like the hidden Trump vote and and 423 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 1: you know, Republicans being less inclined to want to answer 424 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:46,440 Speaker 1: or pick up talk to these people. How much of 425 00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,680 Speaker 1: a challenge has it been for for you guys and 426 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 1: trying to get accurate polls and Republicans maybe being less 427 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,959 Speaker 1: inclined to identify themselves. You know that's funny about it. Yes, 428 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,119 Speaker 1: you hear a lot about that. The media complains about it, 429 00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 1: but we don't find that problem and it is I'm 430 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:03,400 Speaker 1: maybe that's because as can you're well aware from working 431 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,159 Speaker 1: with us for a while, we were meticulous in the 432 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,639 Speaker 1: building of our stratifications at the beginning of the sample, 433 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 1: of building our sample frame. But I will say here 434 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 1: is the one place, like on the Young Can polling, 435 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:17,800 Speaker 1: most polling had UH hadcall winning. Ours did not. We 436 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 1: had young Enough, and we had him up for the 437 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,200 Speaker 1: last couple of weeks and it wasn't. I don't think 438 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 1: there was any polling that came out that had young 439 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 1: Enough except for our internals. And I think you were 440 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:31,439 Speaker 1: still working with at this point too. In sixteen, as 441 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:33,680 Speaker 1: you may remember, our internal polling I did Ted Cruzis 442 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,560 Speaker 1: polling US presidential campaign. Our internal polling had us winning 443 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 1: in Iowa. There was not a single public poll that 444 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,479 Speaker 1: did it all had that shared that notion. They all 445 00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:46,920 Speaker 1: had Trump winning and most of them had had Ruby 446 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 1: all moving into second place. And you can go to 447 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 1: Real Clear Politics average and look at that. When we 448 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,639 Speaker 1: knew internally we were going to win, And that comes 449 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,160 Speaker 1: from the way in which we built out our sample 450 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,479 Speaker 1: based on education. And I think that's one of our 451 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:00,960 Speaker 1: biggest lessons from the last few so I goals is, yes, 452 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:06,119 Speaker 1: it can be more difficult to interview Republicans without a 453 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,560 Speaker 1: college degree. It's very easy to get voters who have 454 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,239 Speaker 1: a college degree on the phone. They're just easier. They 455 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:13,560 Speaker 1: don't change phone numbers as much. They're more I could 456 00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 1: answer and on them cell phone numbers. Just a lot 457 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,439 Speaker 1: of reasons for that, whereas it does take a lot 458 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,639 Speaker 1: of interviewing to get those without a college degree. And 459 00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,240 Speaker 1: so I think some of that probably feeds into it. 460 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 1: It certainly was the case in Northern Virginia. I mean least, 461 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,160 Speaker 1: I would look at some polls coming out of Virginia 462 00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:33,960 Speaker 1: in which they had the sample in Northern Virginia sample 463 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,440 Speaker 1: in Northern Virginia had a college career greater. Well, that's 464 00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,040 Speaker 1: a higher percentage of the electorate than than has a 465 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,159 Speaker 1: college degree than in Cambridge, Massachusetts, or Berkeley, California. It 466 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 1: was just inaccurate, and I would immediately point that out 467 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 1: to the people who sent it to me, like, oh, 468 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:49,200 Speaker 1: it's only off my few points, Marge of Vera. No 469 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:51,560 Speaker 1: it's not, Marge of Vera. It's like twenty five points off. 470 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 1: And if you've got a twenty five point subsample that 471 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:59,080 Speaker 1: is a completely different ideological bent than the electorate as 472 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,680 Speaker 1: a whole. It's only to make the entire survey off 473 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 1: by a point or two. And so I think some 474 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,960 Speaker 1: of that feeds into it. It's just it's maybe some laziness, 475 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,320 Speaker 1: could be laziness on the part of the phone center 476 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 1: that does the interviewing. There's a lot of things that 477 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,040 Speaker 1: feed into it. But I'll say this to wrap it, 478 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,919 Speaker 1: to wrap up my comments, there is no way an 479 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 1: accurate poll could have been done in Wisconsin the weekend 480 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:23,960 Speaker 1: before the presidential election that showed your mind, not by 481 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,879 Speaker 1: eighteen points. That is a crime of comission. And to 482 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,160 Speaker 1: your point, it is certainly one that kept people at home, 483 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 1: and it most likely had an impact on the present 484 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:35,240 Speaker 1: on the election of the president of United States. And 485 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,520 Speaker 1: I think that's the intention. I really do. I just 486 00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 1: I think that, you know, we look at the bias 487 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,520 Speaker 1: in every aspect every institution in America, and I think 488 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:46,720 Speaker 1: it's it's got. The posters are more interested in disrupting 489 00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 1: the election than they are about capturing the election, and 490 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 1: I sadly, I think that's where we are today. You know, 491 00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,280 Speaker 1: I wanted to ask you you look at like Democrats. 492 00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:59,159 Speaker 1: Their closing argument seems to be, we need to abort 493 00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:02,680 Speaker 1: babies up until the moment of birth in January six? 494 00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:05,600 Speaker 1: Have we told you about January six? Which seems like 495 00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:09,200 Speaker 1: a strategic mistake, Chris, when you know you've got families 496 00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 1: really suffering financially, worried about being able to put food 497 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 1: on the table, afford the roof over the head, you 498 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:18,800 Speaker 1: know how much of a strategic mistake is their messaging? 499 00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:22,920 Speaker 1: And it has their messaging been you know, it's um. Yeah, 500 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:26,560 Speaker 1: there's no question that they have completely overplayed their hand 501 00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,440 Speaker 1: on abortion. And the problem is is you point out 502 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:31,800 Speaker 1: they are. And there's a great article to Washing Examiner 503 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:36,119 Speaker 1: today by Kaylee White and which is the title is 504 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,360 Speaker 1: Democrats will finally being forced to own their abortion extremism. 505 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:41,399 Speaker 1: And I think what you've see. One of the reasons 506 00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,120 Speaker 1: why you have seen independent women shift in the way 507 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:48,040 Speaker 1: that they have is twofold. One is, of course inflation 508 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 1: and the fact that I'll never forget. We did a 509 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 1: focus group of independent women in Virginia and there's a 510 00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,440 Speaker 1: woman there was what it was all about, asking not 511 00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:58,960 Speaker 1: the issue of abortion, and one said, look, you know, 512 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,200 Speaker 1: I have to buy grocery every day. That's put gas 513 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,160 Speaker 1: in my car almost every day. I have to pay 514 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,120 Speaker 1: taxes every day. I don't get an abortion every day. 515 00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 1: So no, that's not going, in fact my choice for governor. 516 00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:11,720 Speaker 1: I want to make sure my kids go to school 517 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:13,800 Speaker 1: and have a good education. Those are things I worry 518 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 1: about every day. And so right now I think you're 519 00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:20,040 Speaker 1: seeing people make chore. It's kind of a Maslow's hierarchy 520 00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:23,240 Speaker 1: of issues, if you will, on an from a standpoint 521 00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:25,200 Speaker 1: of what what is going to impact someone's life on 522 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:29,000 Speaker 1: a daily basis. So that's a strategic mistake by Democrats. 523 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,120 Speaker 1: But the other aspect of the strategic mistake is Democrats 524 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:35,200 Speaker 1: are finding out that they are the extremists on the 525 00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,840 Speaker 1: issue of life and for for stins of history, it's 526 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 1: um you can look at the eighteen sixty two election, 527 00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:45,359 Speaker 1: and the Democrat Party in eighteen sixty two made their 528 00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:50,560 Speaker 1: entire message about Abraham Lincoln, if you reelect, if you 529 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:54,640 Speaker 1: send Abraham Lincoln Republican Congress, a Republican Senate, he will 530 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,280 Speaker 1: free the slaves. That was their entire message in eighteen 531 00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 1: sixty two. Now, of course they don't own that today, 532 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 1: they don't talk about that very much, but that was 533 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,639 Speaker 1: the what you're seeing today with the way they are 534 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 1: treating an issue of life, is the moral equivalent of 535 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,640 Speaker 1: the Democratic Party in eighteen sixty two, where their entire 536 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,560 Speaker 1: message was send us back to Congress and we will 537 00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:14,840 Speaker 1: make sure Abraham Lincoln doesn't free the slaves. And it's 538 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:16,560 Speaker 1: like this year, we're saying, send us back to Congress 539 00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:19,080 Speaker 1: and we will make sure the Republicans don't say babies. 540 00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 1: It's pretty wild, you know. And you know, and most 541 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,320 Speaker 1: Americans aren't there. You know, they don't believe in abortion 542 00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,119 Speaker 1: up until the moment of birth. They fully recognize that 543 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 1: it's not a clump of sales. As they try to 544 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,760 Speaker 1: tell us that, you know, it doesn't make sense logically 545 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,400 Speaker 1: or from a common sense standpoint. You know, when you're 546 00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,479 Speaker 1: looking at you know, you're talking to these volder, these voters, 547 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 1: you're doing these focus groups, You're seeing the issues. What 548 00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,639 Speaker 1: are the top issues on Americans minds right now? I know, 549 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,960 Speaker 1: no inflation, but are there any surprises or is it 550 00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 1: pretty much what we would think? You know, it really 551 00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:53,600 Speaker 1: is what you would think. It is. Inflation, is gas prices, 552 00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,480 Speaker 1: is grocery prices? And education the only surprise And it 553 00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,200 Speaker 1: maybe isn't a surprise anymore, because as I mentioned, we 554 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,200 Speaker 1: really saw this manifest itself in the young and versus 555 00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 1: mccaulloff election, in which Glenn Yuncan made it very clear 556 00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 1: that he would not have closed schools, and so he 557 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,080 Speaker 1: gave and he was able to put to point to 558 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:15,320 Speaker 1: the Rhonda Santis is the Kevin Stitz in Oklahoma, to 559 00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:18,280 Speaker 1: unless your extent to Greg Abbotts and Texas and show 560 00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:21,680 Speaker 1: the example of states that did not close their schools 561 00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 1: and didn't fall behind in education. And so what that 562 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:29,200 Speaker 1: allowed is is that you know, it's even to take 563 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:33,000 Speaker 1: the analogy further. Uh, the night before the election of 564 00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:37,800 Speaker 1: Canada's Sunday on Monday night, Terry mccauloff campaigned not with 565 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:40,720 Speaker 1: Joe Biden, not with Kamala Harris, not even with Barack Obama, 566 00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,360 Speaker 1: but a campaign with Randy Weinarter. And for anyone who 567 00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:44,880 Speaker 1: doesn't know who that is, she's head of the American 568 00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,720 Speaker 1: Federation Teachers and she is the one probably foremost responsible 569 00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 1: for the for the shedding schools and the keep and 570 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:55,200 Speaker 1: keeping schools closed. And candidly we were high fiving on 571 00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 1: the campaign. We need it. We need to check this 572 00:28:58,080 --> 00:28:59,720 Speaker 1: to see if it's an in kind of contribution to 573 00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:03,080 Speaker 1: our to us. And she continues to campaign on behalf 574 00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,600 Speaker 1: of Democrats. And what that has done is it has 575 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:09,000 Speaker 1: made education. It has gone from an issue that Democrats 576 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:11,160 Speaker 1: led by about twenty points on just a couple of 577 00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:14,280 Speaker 1: cycles ago, that were two Republicans leading on it. So 578 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:18,200 Speaker 1: on the key issues facing America today, inflation, Republicans lead 579 00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:23,960 Speaker 1: on gas prices, Republicans lead on homeownership, Republicans lead on 580 00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 1: the economy, and general Republicans lead, but education Republicans now lead. 581 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 1: And in the most recent poll polling that we're getting 582 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,360 Speaker 1: the highest I have seen abortion on a list of 583 00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 1: most important issues is seventh in the last week seventh 584 00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:41,240 Speaker 1: and Lisa, I have not seen January six mentioned in 585 00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:43,440 Speaker 1: the verbatives on the survey much less as the most 586 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:49,920 Speaker 1: important issue probably since about Midsummer. So that tells you, 587 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,120 Speaker 1: as you mentioned at the beginning, what Democrats are closing 588 00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:58,120 Speaker 1: on is taxpayer funded abortion at any age through the 589 00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:01,280 Speaker 1: ninth through the ninth month and the canal and oh yeah, 590 00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,320 Speaker 1: January six. That's not a winning message for them, and 591 00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:05,920 Speaker 1: it's really I think they're going to pay the price 592 00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,880 Speaker 1: for it again in a couple of weeks quick break more. 593 00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:13,600 Speaker 1: In the mid terms, we were being told with a 594 00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:18,120 Speaker 1: straight face by the media that Democrats could somehow outrun 595 00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:22,160 Speaker 1: an incredibly unpopular president, when mid terms are always a 596 00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:25,800 Speaker 1: referendum on the party in charge of the president in charge. 597 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,520 Speaker 1: But yet they sat there with a straight face trying 598 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:31,160 Speaker 1: to tell us that things were happening that we're not 599 00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:34,760 Speaker 1: talk about that. Well, I think the key thing, I 600 00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:38,320 Speaker 1: think the part there that I'll be critical of our 601 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 1: party in this situation, unless with the media, because we've 602 00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:42,440 Speaker 1: spent so much time beating them up. I do think 603 00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,920 Speaker 1: there are some campaigns that didn't do a great job 604 00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 1: for a while tying their opponents to Joe Biden. So 605 00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:52,440 Speaker 1: I remember I was actually given a talk at Freedom 606 00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 1: Works a few weeks ago and John McLoughlin was a 607 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 1: very talented poster, a good friend, and he was actually 608 00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:00,280 Speaker 1: the polster on the campaign that I man Inch did 609 00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:02,400 Speaker 1: in nineteen ninety four, a long time ago. Right, it 610 00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:04,880 Speaker 1: was David McIntosh who's now head of the Club for Growth. 611 00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:08,720 Speaker 1: I ran his campaign for Congress. And John pointed out 612 00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:11,360 Speaker 1: I was in the audience, had spoken just before him. 613 00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:13,320 Speaker 1: He said, you know, at this point in nine Chris 614 00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:15,760 Speaker 1: was already morphing. Joe Hogs said, who was our opponent 615 00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:17,880 Speaker 1: at the time. He's now mayor of Indianapolis, points stilling 616 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 1: or interesting into Bill Clinton's face. So why are Republicans 617 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:24,560 Speaker 1: doing that? And I thought, you know, that's a great 618 00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,040 Speaker 1: that's a really important point. So I want to give 619 00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 1: John credit for it. And I think there were a 620 00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:32,760 Speaker 1: lot of Republican campaigns that were running talking about the issues, 621 00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:34,680 Speaker 1: which is good. But let's face it, whenever you are 622 00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:37,560 Speaker 1: running astkinstan Comming in most of these situations, we were 623 00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:40,720 Speaker 1: trying to beat incumbents. You take more Kelly versus Blake 624 00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:44,680 Speaker 1: Masters Mark Kelly. They voters need to be told why 625 00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:46,800 Speaker 1: they should fire him, and they should fire him because 626 00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,320 Speaker 1: he's a rubber stamp for Joe Biden. They should fire 627 00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:52,320 Speaker 1: Katherine Cortez Masco because she's a rubber stamp for Joe Biden. 628 00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:53,920 Speaker 1: They should fire her off from the war on because 629 00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:55,920 Speaker 1: she he is a rubber stamp for Joe Biden. And 630 00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:58,360 Speaker 1: I think a lot of campaigns were running on issues 631 00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:00,800 Speaker 1: are running on, spent a little bit too much time 632 00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:02,920 Speaker 1: telling the story as to why they should be elected 633 00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:06,360 Speaker 1: instead of talking there about their opponents. And there's probably 634 00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:08,600 Speaker 1: a lot of altruistic sort of people who listening to 635 00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:10,560 Speaker 1: your podcast who are like, well, I believe in that. 636 00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:12,640 Speaker 1: I believe we should give people a reason to vote 637 00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:14,840 Speaker 1: for us, And yes, we absolutely should, but we need 638 00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:17,160 Speaker 1: to do it and move on. Because if you want 639 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:18,920 Speaker 1: to get a job and somebody else, sorry has that job, 640 00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 1: that person has to be fired before you can hire 641 00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,160 Speaker 1: be hired. That's just a basic tenant of the way 642 00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,760 Speaker 1: political campaigns work and the way people's decision ranking process goes. 643 00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,560 Speaker 1: So it is. I think that was kind of a 644 00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,920 Speaker 1: situation where maybe a few too many campaigns waited a 645 00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:36,680 Speaker 1: little bit too long to begin tying their opponent to Biden, 646 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:40,640 Speaker 1: and the media probably did a good job head faked 647 00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:42,600 Speaker 1: us out of that and saying, oh, it's a people 648 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,440 Speaker 1: are separating, so some Biden it's uh, they can still win. 649 00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:48,920 Speaker 1: So people bought into that. Candidates brought into that. Campaigns 650 00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:50,240 Speaker 1: one of that Okay, let me go give people a 651 00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:54,560 Speaker 1: reason as to why they should vote for me. Well, okay, 652 00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:57,000 Speaker 1: you've done it. Move on. These last two weeks. Any 653 00:32:57,080 --> 00:33:00,360 Speaker 1: campaign that's spending a single dollar not mentioning tying their 654 00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:03,720 Speaker 1: opponent to Joe Biden is wasting that dollars. That makes 655 00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:05,800 Speaker 1: a lot of sense. And I also just kind of 656 00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:08,280 Speaker 1: a thought popped in my thought bubble popped in my 657 00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:10,640 Speaker 1: head when you're talking about Biden, because I don't know 658 00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:12,920 Speaker 1: if you saw herschel Walker or with NBC and they 659 00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,520 Speaker 1: asked him if there's any common ground he could find 660 00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:19,360 Speaker 1: with Biden. He's like, well you likes ice cream. That's 661 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,360 Speaker 1: actually really good line. Yeah. I know, maybe it made 662 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,360 Speaker 1: me laugh because I thought that was just like funny, 663 00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:26,080 Speaker 1: you know, and it kind of you know, ribbing him, 664 00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:29,080 Speaker 1: but in a you know, in a likable way. Um. 665 00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:30,840 Speaker 1: You know, I know you're a busy guy. You're you're 666 00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:33,880 Speaker 1: working on races around the country. You probably aren't sleeping 667 00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:37,480 Speaker 1: right now. What should people before we go you know, Chris, 668 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:40,640 Speaker 1: what should people be looking for in pulling and the 669 00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:44,160 Speaker 1: dynamics of these races as we head into these mid 670 00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:46,320 Speaker 1: term sprint? You know, we see you man the most 671 00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:48,320 Speaker 1: important one. The pole comes out. First of all, check 672 00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:50,760 Speaker 1: the sample. Are they talking to registried voters? If so, 673 00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,240 Speaker 1: don't need pay attention. Are they talking to adults? If so, 674 00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,520 Speaker 1: throw it away and never read the publication again. If 675 00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:58,479 Speaker 1: they're talking to likely voters, pay attention. But the other 676 00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:01,000 Speaker 1: thing you want to look at is whether whether or 677 00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:05,959 Speaker 1: not that likely voter universe looks like a eighteen sample 678 00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:07,400 Speaker 1: and now I know I'm getting really deep into it, 679 00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:10,160 Speaker 1: or if it looks like a ten or twenty ten sample, 680 00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:15,520 Speaker 1: because two out here it is that's the sleep thing. 681 00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:19,759 Speaker 1: Uh is gonna look a lot more like en than 682 00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,319 Speaker 1: it is gonna look like ten. So that's number one. 683 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:24,520 Speaker 1: I think the second thing I would do is take 684 00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:26,799 Speaker 1: it with a grain of salt. If a pole has 685 00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:30,040 Speaker 1: a democrat up even double, did you think about what 686 00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:31,840 Speaker 1: you think about some of the examples. I gave a 687 00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:35,640 Speaker 1: little bit ago where I talked about Greenfield in Ohio 688 00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:37,600 Speaker 1: being up by two and or its winning by seven. 689 00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:39,520 Speaker 1: When I talked about getting and being up by six 690 00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:43,560 Speaker 1: and Collins winning by nine. When I talked about Cunningham 691 00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:45,960 Speaker 1: being up by four, until it's winning by two or 692 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,440 Speaker 1: even in South Carolina where Lindsey Graham, most of the 693 00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,080 Speaker 1: poles at the end had him down or in a 694 00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:54,440 Speaker 1: dead heat, he won by ten. So don't know, just 695 00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:56,719 Speaker 1: because a pole has a Democrat up by a point 696 00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:00,640 Speaker 1: or two doesn't mean that they're going to win. In fact, 697 00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:03,719 Speaker 1: most likely at that level, it probably means the Republicans 698 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:05,560 Speaker 1: going to win. So when you see a poll come 699 00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:07,839 Speaker 1: out and a couple of them I saw come out 700 00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:11,200 Speaker 1: this morning out of Pennsylvania that has a Federment up 701 00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:13,640 Speaker 1: over Oz by two, you might want to take read 702 00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:16,040 Speaker 1: into that that Oust is probably gonna win. When you 703 00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,560 Speaker 1: see one come out like came out yesterday out of 704 00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:22,120 Speaker 1: Georgia that had uh Warnock and Walker in a tie, 705 00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:24,920 Speaker 1: and then that probably means the lockers up, particularly it 706 00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:29,080 Speaker 1: has Camp up six. So it's I really get skeptical 707 00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:31,560 Speaker 1: whenever I see the public polling that has Democrats up, 708 00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:34,120 Speaker 1: and I look at the ones where I am involved 709 00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:38,480 Speaker 1: in center races I'm doing. Um, I've mentioned las All 710 00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:42,760 Speaker 1: a few times. Um he is up he's he is awesome. 711 00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,960 Speaker 1: He's been up in seventh straight polls, and I'll tell 712 00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:50,040 Speaker 1: you he's he's most likely to win that race. I'll 713 00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:54,680 Speaker 1: tell you Eric Eric Schmidt in Missouri, who I'm working with, 714 00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:57,120 Speaker 1: I mean that he's gonna win that thing going away. 715 00:35:57,719 --> 00:35:59,800 Speaker 1: Republicans are going to have a very good year, and 716 00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:03,000 Speaker 1: I think if any pulling that doesn't reflect that, I 717 00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:07,000 Speaker 1: would be suspective immediately. Good to know, Chris Wilson. You're 718 00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,759 Speaker 1: busy man. I appreciate you taking the time. I know 719 00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,800 Speaker 1: this is a really important election, so we appreciate your insight. 720 00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:15,479 Speaker 1: Thanks so much, Chris. Happy to do it, Lisa, great 721 00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:29,080 Speaker 1: catch up. That was Chris Wilson. I used to work 722 00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,640 Speaker 1: for him. He's a really really solid poster. He does 723 00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:35,120 Speaker 1: great work. And more than solid, he's does great work. Uh. 724 00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:36,799 Speaker 1: It takes a lot of pride in getting things right 725 00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:40,520 Speaker 1: with w p A Intelligence. He's the founder and CEO, 726 00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:44,120 Speaker 1: been in the game for a long time, so you know, 727 00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:46,040 Speaker 1: it just goes to show you how much we're led 728 00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:49,000 Speaker 1: to by all these people, right, you know, And that's 729 00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,440 Speaker 1: the whole point of this podcast is trying to identify 730 00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:54,560 Speaker 1: people like him who can really get to the bottom 731 00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:56,239 Speaker 1: of what's happening, which you're you're not going to get 732 00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:58,000 Speaker 1: swere in the media, right, You're not gonna get it 733 00:36:58,040 --> 00:36:59,880 Speaker 1: when you turn on TV and they're still doing register 734 00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,680 Speaker 1: voter surveys or they're talking to the same people who 735 00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:06,160 Speaker 1: have gotten every single thing wrong for forever, right, but 736 00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,279 Speaker 1: you know, so hopefully we'll learned a lot from that. 737 00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:11,719 Speaker 1: Appreciate you guys listening to the show. I want to 738 00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:13,960 Speaker 1: thank John Cassie On, my producer, for putting it together 739 00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,080 Speaker 1: every Monday and Thursday, but you can listen throughout the week. 740 00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,480 Speaker 1: Feel free to leave us a review on Apple Podcasts, 741 00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:23,280 Speaker 1: give us a rating, share with your friends, your family. 742 00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:25,799 Speaker 1: Appreciate you guys listening. Until next time.