WEBVTT - Tech Predictions for 2009 0:00:00.320 --> 0:00:02.880 Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve camera. 0:00:03.200 --> 0:00:08.800 It's ready. Are you get in touch with technology? With 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:13.400 tech stuff from how stuff works dot com. Hi, everybody, 0:00:13.400 --> 0:00:15.720 welcome to the podcast. My name is Chris Polette. I'm 0:00:15.720 --> 0:00:17.919 an editor here at How Stuff Works, and sitting in 0:00:17.920 --> 0:00:19.840 the chair next to me as always his senior writer 0:00:19.920 --> 0:00:22.640 Jonathan Strickland. I predict this will be our second best 0:00:22.680 --> 0:00:25.759 podcast of all time. I had a feeling you were 0:00:25.760 --> 0:00:28.520 going to say that. Yeah, so this is our obligatory 0:00:28.560 --> 0:00:33.000 predictions for two thousand nine nine nine. Yeah, and uh, 0:00:33.240 --> 0:00:36.000 we have a whole list of things. I feel compelled 0:00:36.040 --> 0:00:39.240 to point out that these may or may not come true, 0:00:39.280 --> 0:00:41.320 and some of them might be a little far fetched. 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:43.320 I think what we'll have to do is, at the 0:00:43.400 --> 0:00:45.600 end of two thousand nine, listen to this podcast and 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:48.640 see how many of them we got absolutely completely wrong. 0:00:49.120 --> 0:00:51.400 Deal awesome? All right? You want to start? You want 0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:54.240 me to you go ahead? All right? I want to 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:57.080 start with Apple. Okay. I think we're gonna find out 0:00:57.160 --> 0:01:00.320 who Steve jobs is successor is in two thousand nine. 0:01:00.720 --> 0:01:03.840 Maybe he won't leave the company, but I think we're 0:01:03.880 --> 0:01:06.840 gonna start hearing names of people who might be poised 0:01:06.840 --> 0:01:09.640 to take over the reins if for some reason, as 0:01:09.880 --> 0:01:13.759 many predict, he will be stepping down. Interesting, I can 0:01:13.760 --> 0:01:16.880 see Jobs resisting that as much as he recently can. Yeah, 0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:18.959 I don't. I can't imagine why he would say that. 0:01:19.319 --> 0:01:22.720 So my Apple prediction is that we are going to 0:01:22.720 --> 0:01:26.360 see I think two thousand nine will be possibly the 0:01:26.400 --> 0:01:30.600 swan song for the Mac desktop computer. Really yeah. Does 0:01:30.640 --> 0:01:33.400 that include the iMac or the power Mac only? I 0:01:33.440 --> 0:01:37.800 think um, I think it will include both. Okay, this 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:40.240 is that's going out on a big limb there, I know, 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:43.280 but but I just see that. You know, McIntosh desktop 0:01:43.440 --> 0:01:46.440 sales have been going kind of low for the last 0:01:46.440 --> 0:01:49.720 couple of quarters. Uh, in comparison to what they used 0:01:49.760 --> 0:01:52.560 to be. They're they're not growing as fast as they 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:57.360 think they should. And I think with the current economic climate, 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:01.480 we are looking at consumers who are going to be 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:04.840 concerned more about getting the most for their money. And uh. 0:02:04.960 --> 0:02:08.359 And Mac computers are beautiful. They work really, really well, 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:11.520 but they're also really expensive, especially when you compare it 0:02:11.560 --> 0:02:15.520 to a machine of similar power. Maybe not the best, 0:02:16.120 --> 0:02:18.120 you know, maybe they're not as capable, but they're just 0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:22.560 as powerful. On the PC side for significantly less money. 0:02:22.639 --> 0:02:26.000 So do you think we'll see an Apple netbook this year? Oh? 0:02:26.040 --> 0:02:28.960 I don't think so. I mean you think people will 0:02:29.320 --> 0:02:31.840 take if you take jobs At his word, he says 0:02:31.880 --> 0:02:34.200 that there's no way they would build a machine for 0:02:34.280 --> 0:02:38.480 under five dollars. That wasn't crap. That was where his words, 0:02:38.480 --> 0:02:42.000 not mine. So I would be very surprised if we 0:02:42.040 --> 0:02:46.280 saw something besides the MacBook Air hit the netbooks range. 0:02:47.360 --> 0:02:50.360 I have another little Apple projection. I think we're gonna 0:02:50.360 --> 0:02:54.880 start hearing about the next gadget, uh, the iPod, the iPhone, 0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:57.040 and I think they're I think we're gonna start hearing 0:02:57.080 --> 0:02:58.680 if if we don't even see it, I think people 0:02:58.720 --> 0:03:01.320 are gonna start conjecturing. And you know how we knew 0:03:01.560 --> 0:03:04.440 the iPhone was coming out before it came out, sort 0:03:04.480 --> 0:03:06.600 of like we did with a Google Phone. Yeah, I 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:08.760 think we're gonna hear. We'll start hearing about the thing, 0:03:08.840 --> 0:03:12.160 whatever it is, it'll be rumored if nothing else going 0:03:12.200 --> 0:03:15.120 with the car I car. Yeah, Well, actually they were 0:03:15.120 --> 0:03:17.919 going to partner with v W from and it happened. 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:20.040 I love that article that we have on that. It's 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:24.000 still a good article. Okay, so, uh, let's move over 0:03:24.040 --> 0:03:26.960 to Microsoft. Then, yeah, I'm not a prediction for Windows seven. 0:03:27.000 --> 0:03:28.840 I grouped mind by company too, and then I have 0:03:28.919 --> 0:03:32.359 some general stuff. Most of mine's general, so I but 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:36.640 for for Windows seven, my prediction, and this is so easy, 0:03:36.680 --> 0:03:39.040 it's it's a GIMMI but that Windows seven is gonna 0:03:39.040 --> 0:03:41.839 have an uphill battle because it has to erase all 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:45.400 the bad blood that was generated by Windows Vista. And 0:03:45.480 --> 0:03:47.280 we should point out that a lot of that bad 0:03:47.280 --> 0:03:51.200 blood is probably, you know, completely unnecessary because although Windows 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:54.960 Vista did have some problems early on, Microsoft addressed a 0:03:55.000 --> 0:03:57.160 lot of those issues and fixed all of those problems. 0:03:57.160 --> 0:03:59.800 And people who use Windows Vista without knowing what it 0:03:59.880 --> 0:04:02.440 is is when they're using the new patched version seem 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:04.760 to think it's a great system and it's really good 0:04:04.760 --> 0:04:07.240 for things like you're a media center, that kind of thing, 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:10.640 and things where you have eighty billion gigabytes and memory. Okay, yeah, 0:04:10.680 --> 0:04:13.360 you have to have a powerful machine, granted, but that's 0:04:13.400 --> 0:04:16.400 not what I'm getting at. Ok. So, I just think 0:04:16.400 --> 0:04:19.320 that Windows seven is going to uh have a rough 0:04:19.400 --> 0:04:22.400 time for the first few months that it's out. But 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:26.960 if enterprises are eager to to upgrade because now they 0:04:27.200 --> 0:04:29.360 they're going to be running on a Windows system that's, 0:04:29.440 --> 0:04:33.040 you know, ten years old. Then I think that's where're 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:35.359 going to see Windows seven flourish. Right as soon as 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:39.120 businesses say okay, we can trust this operating system and 0:04:39.160 --> 0:04:42.880 they move to it, they're they're sitting pretty I have 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:47.680 two Microsoft One of them is a guinea and one 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:50.320 is a little bit more far fetched. One the gimme 0:04:50.520 --> 0:04:52.960 is that Web Office is going to launch the web 0:04:53.080 --> 0:04:56.120 version of Office. It's totally it's going to be out 0:04:56.120 --> 0:04:58.280 there and it's gonna have all the functionality and it's 0:04:58.279 --> 0:05:01.279 gonna go a head to head with Google Docs. Um. 0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:06.280 The other is this is my actual Uh, I'm gonna 0:05:06.320 --> 0:05:08.000 put a date in here. We're not a date, but 0:05:08.480 --> 0:05:12.400 I think at E three you're gonna hear about the Xbox. Okay, 0:05:12.440 --> 0:05:15.000 so the next generation of Xbox generation, whether it's the 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:17.080 seven twenty or not. Well, they're ahead of the other 0:05:17.120 --> 0:05:19.919 two their head of of Nintendo, in their head of 0:05:19.960 --> 0:05:23.600 Sony as far as the Xbox release date, because they 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:26.600 pushed the three sixty out the door pretty quickly after 0:05:26.600 --> 0:05:29.320 the original Xbox which released. So I think they're going 0:05:29.360 --> 0:05:31.080 to try to stay ahead of the game, and go 0:05:31.120 --> 0:05:33.720 ahead and and announce the seven twenty and give you 0:05:33.760 --> 0:05:35.800 a release date and may even be on the shelves 0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:38.240 by next Christmas. And you think so, Yeah, I guess 0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:41.480 the typical console tends to be out between three and 0:05:41.560 --> 0:05:44.600 five years before the next generation, so it's about time, 0:05:44.720 --> 0:05:46.760 you're right, Okay, I can not that far fetch, but 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:49.040 I think you're gonna hear about it at E three. Okay, yeah, 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:52.000 I can. I can dig that, okay. Um, how about 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:55.560 a Google rumor? Okay, okay. So I think that by 0:05:55.640 --> 0:05:58.159 the end of two thousand nine we will finally see 0:05:58.200 --> 0:06:03.719 a full fledged Google operate system. Yeah, web based operating system, 0:06:03.720 --> 0:06:08.279 it's almost there now. Chrome and the Google Docs suite 0:06:08.720 --> 0:06:12.640 together worked pretty well um as as a very kind 0:06:12.680 --> 0:06:15.479 of limited operating system. But I think we're gonna see 0:06:15.720 --> 0:06:17.760 the real thing before the end of two thousand nine. 0:06:17.880 --> 0:06:19.680 All right, Well, I mean they've already got a head start. 0:06:19.680 --> 0:06:21.839 They've got Android, right. I think they're going to see 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:24.240 a huge boost and Android too, because there's going to 0:06:24.320 --> 0:06:26.000 be a bunch of new Android phones coming out in 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:29.760 two thousand nine, and I think that will encourage developers 0:06:29.760 --> 0:06:33.680 to develop more. Um. Programs for Android, and so by 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:35.280 the end of two thousand nine, Android is going to 0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:37.320 be a major player as well. All right, then, so 0:06:37.360 --> 0:06:39.680 there you go. I was going to leave the googling 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:42.520 to you, since you're Mr Google. Yeah, but I was. 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:46.960 I was going to touch on the game systems again. Um, Nintendo, 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:49.040 I think it's going to have a quiet year. I 0:06:49.040 --> 0:06:51.080 don't think you're going to see a new system from them. 0:06:51.080 --> 0:06:52.920 I think you might see a new peripheral or two, 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:55.120 because I think they're figuring out that that's a good 0:06:55.120 --> 0:06:59.560 way to to keep the system going and add more 0:06:59.600 --> 0:07:02.360 function any to it and sell more We's considering they're 0:07:02.400 --> 0:07:05.400 going nuts doing that now. But I think I think 0:07:05.560 --> 0:07:08.840 they're going to concentrate on rolling out more games, and 0:07:08.880 --> 0:07:10.720 I don't think you're gonna hear anything about the next 0:07:10.720 --> 0:07:13.200 the WE two, whatever it is. I think it's going 0:07:13.240 --> 0:07:15.480 to be quiet and stick with games and perfectly. Well, yeah, 0:07:15.480 --> 0:07:19.280 they're still out. They're still outselling the other consoles by 0:07:19.280 --> 0:07:23.560 a significant margin. And uh um, it's interesting because I 0:07:23.600 --> 0:07:25.880 don't I think a lot of people who buy We's 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:28.200 kind of get tired of the games that they have 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:33.760 fairly quickly, and so we Nintendo has to has to 0:07:33.760 --> 0:07:36.840 try and figure out a way to re energize that 0:07:36.920 --> 0:07:39.000 customer base and keep them interested. I think that we 0:07:39.160 --> 0:07:41.520 Fit was a perfect thing for them to come out with, 0:07:41.560 --> 0:07:44.320 because that really did get people excited about the we 0:07:44.480 --> 0:07:46.840 Even people who had bought it thought it was really cool, 0:07:47.360 --> 0:07:49.040 played it for a couple of months and then just 0:07:49.080 --> 0:07:51.240 sort of set the side and didn't think about it again. 0:07:51.280 --> 0:07:54.920 Do we Fit managed to bring them back into it? Um? 0:07:55.000 --> 0:07:56.880 So yeah, I agree with you. I think the peripherals 0:07:56.920 --> 0:07:59.280 is probably the way they're gonna go. Well. Looking at 0:07:59.320 --> 0:08:02.160 Sony in the play station to the PlayStation two has 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:07.200 extended its life considerably, um, you know, for selling more 0:08:07.240 --> 0:08:09.840 than any console ever. I think I think that's safe 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:12.200 to say without researching that that they pretty much have. 0:08:12.560 --> 0:08:16.840 They've certainly been around forever. Speaking of Sony, I think 0:08:17.120 --> 0:08:19.400 that it that they're going to start working on the 0:08:19.440 --> 0:08:22.000 PS four because sale sales have the PS three have 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:24.640 stagnated so much that the next PlayStation. I think they're 0:08:24.640 --> 0:08:28.080 gonna end of life the PlayStation three very early, and 0:08:28.120 --> 0:08:30.640 you may start hearing about the PlayStation four before the 0:08:30.720 --> 0:08:33.439 end of the year. Here's the thing about the PlayStation three, 0:08:33.720 --> 0:08:37.560 I think Um, I think that's death is premature. I 0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:39.240 agree with you that it's not doing as well as 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:41.800 it needs to do. I think that's mainly because of 0:08:41.840 --> 0:08:45.360 the price. It's it's the highest priced console on the 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:48.800 market right now, right and they, you know, Sony before 0:08:48.880 --> 0:08:51.719 Christmas two thousand and eight, they said they were not 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:54.960 going to cut the price of the the PS three. Um, 0:08:54.960 --> 0:08:57.000 they weren't gonna bring it down for the holidays, and 0:08:57.040 --> 0:08:59.640 I think that really really hurt them. I'm not sure 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:02.600 that comeing out with a new console will help, because 0:09:02.600 --> 0:09:05.040 I don't think it's the fact that the PS three. 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:08.240 I think the PS three is as great specs and 0:09:08.280 --> 0:09:10.719 it's perfect for the time that's in right now, it's 0:09:10.760 --> 0:09:14.040 just at the wrong price. But that that does bring 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:16.319 me to something else that's somewhere though. Okay, I was 0:09:16.360 --> 0:09:18.080 going to say that I don't know if the developers 0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:20.360 are going to stay on board three if they're not 0:09:20.400 --> 0:09:22.640 selling machine. Well, I can yeah, I can definitely see 0:09:22.640 --> 0:09:24.120 that because there's no money in it for them to 0:09:24.160 --> 0:09:26.199 do that. Why why developed for that when they can 0:09:26.240 --> 0:09:31.079 just concentrate on just say the Xbox so um Blu 0:09:31.240 --> 0:09:34.000 Ray Blue Ray. Oh this is the make or break 0:09:34.240 --> 0:09:37.960 year for Blu Ray. I say, um, the prices for 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:41.680 Blu Ray machines dropped dramatically for the holiday season in 0:09:41.720 --> 0:09:45.160 two thousand and eight, and uh, and so if we 0:09:45.240 --> 0:09:48.839 see people adopt it and then start buying movies, then 0:09:48.880 --> 0:09:51.200 sure Blu ray will stick around. I don't think it's 0:09:51.200 --> 0:09:55.320 gonna happen. I just don't think that the improvement between 0:09:55.440 --> 0:09:59.040 regular DVDs and Blue Ray DVDs is enough for most 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:04.040 people to switch and adopt the Blu Ray technology and 0:10:04.200 --> 0:10:07.920 just concentrate on Blu Ray movies. I think it's it's 0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:11.320 it's a beautiful format, but most people just don't see 0:10:11.320 --> 0:10:14.960 the value in that kind of incremental important in uh, 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:19.240 you know, improvement in performance. So I think two thousand 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:24.440 nine maybe the death of Blu Ray, maybe a long, 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:26.080 slow death. I don't think it's gonna be like the 0:10:26.320 --> 0:10:27.839 h D d v D where it was like, oh 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:29.559 I'm not feeling so good. I'm not feeling so good. 0:10:29.600 --> 0:10:33.360 I'm not I'm dead. That was as HD d D 0:10:33.960 --> 0:10:41.720 for early eight. Sorry Toshiba. Yeah, um, okay, I was 0:10:41.800 --> 0:10:43.240 trying to I was looking at my notes and trying 0:10:43.240 --> 0:10:44.920 to figure where I want to go next. Um, I'll 0:10:44.920 --> 0:10:48.640 just keep going chronologically and where I wrote it down. Um, 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:51.200 I think the Linux community is gonna start taking shots 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:53.720 at Microsoft. I think they're working right now. Actually I 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:55.840 know they're working right now on getting people to make 0:10:56.080 --> 0:11:00.480 prettier software for Linux. I think you're gonna see Lennox 0:11:00.520 --> 0:11:03.120 starting to make in roads. I think with cloud computing 0:11:03.400 --> 0:11:05.680 and some of the and and the success of things 0:11:05.679 --> 0:11:10.400 like open Office. Um, there are basically you can download 0:11:11.000 --> 0:11:15.120 a copy of well various different flavors of Lenox and 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:17.640 install it on your computer and have a productivity suite 0:11:17.640 --> 0:11:20.640 and an instant messaging client. Uh, you can use gemp 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:24.439 to do your your images. You know what. It may 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:26.840 be time for Lennox to start making a move as 0:11:26.920 --> 0:11:29.480 a community want the different developers now, I mean it's 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:32.720 a confederation of people, so who knows, But especially when 0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:35.720 you made like Microsoft is moving more and more towards 0:11:35.760 --> 0:11:38.560 the cloud. That's cloud computing. By the way, that's one 0:11:38.600 --> 0:11:41.120 of my other predictions will be a household term before 0:11:41.160 --> 0:11:44.520 the two thousand nine is over right now. It's something 0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:46.360 that we in the tech industry talk about a lot, 0:11:46.400 --> 0:11:49.760 but you wouldn't necessarily hear anyone like the average Joe 0:11:49.880 --> 0:11:52.520 who's not in the tech industry wouldn't normally know that 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:54.200 that term. I think that will change by the end 0:11:54.200 --> 0:11:56.800 of two thousand nine. Um, so you beat me to that. 0:11:56.840 --> 0:11:58.720 I was page two of my n Yeah, and Microsoft 0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:02.079 is really moving towards that that model, I think you know, 0:12:02.320 --> 0:12:06.880 but there there is still a value to having a 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:10.800 machine that can run things locally, and some people recognize 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:13.800 that and some people kind of dismiss it. Um, And 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:16.680 I think the Linux community community can totally jump on 0:12:16.720 --> 0:12:19.720 that and you'll see things like again like the Android platform, 0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:22.600 which is based off of the Linux kernel. When you 0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:25.200 see the success of these kind of platforms, that also 0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:29.200 lends credence to Linux being a an operating system that's 0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:35.400 worthy of competition with these other established companies. Yea yea. Um. 0:12:35.440 --> 0:12:37.840 That's actually a good segue to something else that I 0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:40.400 had on my list, which was I think two thousand 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:41.920 nine is going to be the year in the netbook 0:12:42.480 --> 0:12:47.240 in general, and m I'm contrary to your thinking on 0:12:47.320 --> 0:12:50.920 Apple because I think that it may it may actually 0:12:50.960 --> 0:12:52.920 go the other way. Now it's been going people have 0:12:53.000 --> 0:12:56.400 been buying more notebooks than desktops for a while. A 0:12:56.400 --> 0:12:59.760 couple of years, I guess, and netbooks are certainly super popular. 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:01.839 But I think people are gonna get tired of lugging 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:03.839 their laptops around and they're gonna say, you know what, 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:05.520 this is all in the cloud. I can get a 0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:08.040 nice desktop at home and have one at work and 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:09.719 not even mess with it. I don't even want to 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:12.839 carry my briefcase or my backpack with me. I'm just 0:13:12.880 --> 0:13:15.520 gonna have this on the cloud. Interesting, So I think 0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:17.720 that it it may actually go the other way, and 0:13:17.960 --> 0:13:19.920 that would be totally going out on the lamb. And 0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:22.520 I'm gonna you're gonna enjoy picking me apart of because 0:13:23.559 --> 0:13:25.440 laptops are going to be up. I have written down 0:13:25.520 --> 0:13:29.480 right here. Mobile devices will take over the computer world. 0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:32.920 That's the thing. You've got the iPhone, You've got hey, 0:13:32.960 --> 0:13:35.800 the iPod Touch, You've got other smartphones, you've got netbooks. 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:39.240 Why carry around a full size laptop computer? Sure? Okay, 0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:45.520 no desktops at smaller device. Yeah, I'm I just here's 0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:49.480 the thing. I think that for most people's computing needs, 0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:54.640 the smartphones, the netbooks, the cloud, computing takes care of 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:58.120 almost everything they need. Yeah, for the average consumer, the 0:13:58.200 --> 0:14:00.760 people that are that this obviously does not apply to 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:04.000 our people like power gamers who need a powerful machine 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:06.960 on this stuff. Um, those are the people. So I 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:11.360 think desktop computers will go to those niche markets, So 0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:14.679 the gamers and the enterprise people who will still need 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:17.959 a desktop machine or you know a lot of places 0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:21.480 still use desktop machines. We don't. We use laptops for 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:23.440 most of our machines. We do have a few desktops 0:14:23.440 --> 0:14:28.440 in the house. Stuff works universe. Um, but yeah, I 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:34.080 would be shocked if the desktop computer has as strong 0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:37.080 a foothold in the consumer market as you seem to suggest. 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:40.000 So at the end of the year, we'll listen to 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:41.800 this and find out who's right, because that's a good, 0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:43.880 good one. We we we have two different takes on 0:14:43.880 --> 0:14:45.720 this well, and and that's part of the fun of 0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:48.560 doing this podcast is we're playing around with ideas that 0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:51.280 might happen. So we'll see, we'll see what happens. So, um, 0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:55.680 you got one, Yeah, okay, Facebook will put the finishing 0:14:55.760 --> 0:15:01.040 move on my Space, the tombstone pile driver, the atomic 0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:03.440 leg drop, whatever you wanna call it. I think, uh, 0:15:03.840 --> 0:15:06.440 I think my space is busy shoveling the dirt in 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:09.960 around itself now, so my Facebook will really just have 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:12.000 to show up and put the tombstone. And I think 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:14.880 one of the things that's really going to to uh 0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:18.200 contribute to this as Facebook Connect, yeah, which of course 0:15:18.280 --> 0:15:21.120 is their open I d U kind of approach where 0:15:21.160 --> 0:15:24.280 you can use the Facebook profile information you have to 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:28.160 log into other services, which automatically ports the information into 0:15:28.200 --> 0:15:31.480 those services so you don't have to create a new profile. Um. 0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:33.800 More and more sites are gonna start using this sort 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:35.600 of stuff, and I think a lot of them are 0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:39.000 going to look at Facebook as being the preferable vendor 0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:41.880 because you've got, like the Google has its open source 0:15:41.920 --> 0:15:44.200 I d and that's a very powerful name as well. 0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:46.840 But you look at Facebook's user base and they have 0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:49.880 hundreds of you know, like a hundred million people using 0:15:49.880 --> 0:15:52.520 it on a regular basis, not just users, but people 0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:56.560 who go there sometimes multiple times a day. Uh, that's 0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:59.240 a big user base to to grab to get your 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:01.600 people to you know, let's let's use that that way 0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:04.120 that it gives them the incident to make a profile 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:09.200 on our page and we've got them. In a related note, Yeah, 0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:12.200 I think, uh, I think Twitter is going to either 0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:17.600 go down or get really perilously close to it unless 0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:19.800 they come up with some kind of business model. They 0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:22.960 need to partner with somebody that they need a business model. 0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:26.000 Come on, they don't need a business model. Well, tell 0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:28.960 me how they're getting income in this economy, and maybe 0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:32.480 you can convince me venture capital, which I have predicted 0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:35.960 will dry up in two thousand nine. Um okay, I 0:16:35.960 --> 0:16:38.560 see your point. I hope that Twitter finds a business 0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:43.320 model because I've become increasingly reliant upon it. So but 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:45.240 now I can I can see where you're going there. 0:16:45.280 --> 0:16:47.520 I don't like that story. I don't either. Let's get it. 0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:49.920 Let's get us something else that's better. Well, I've got 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:52.400 I've got a lot of little ideas we don't have 0:16:52.520 --> 0:16:55.000 to get into in great detail. I think you're gonna 0:16:55.040 --> 0:17:00.600 see um Echo Star finally build since they acquired Sling Media, 0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:03.640 I think you're gonna start seeing integrated machines that have 0:17:03.920 --> 0:17:06.960 the Sling technology built in. And I think you're gonna 0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:09.399 see place shifting become more prevalent. I also think you're 0:17:09.400 --> 0:17:13.120 gonna see ti Vo either get acquired or go under, 0:17:13.200 --> 0:17:16.439 because they're at a point now where you know, I mean, 0:17:16.480 --> 0:17:19.240 they're fighting Dish and a lot of other people off 0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:24.080 with lawsuits for infringement of of technology. But I don't know. 0:17:24.200 --> 0:17:26.640 I think they're at the point and they're too good 0:17:26.680 --> 0:17:28.960 to go under because the the operating system on that 0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:34.360 machine is amazing. UM. So I'm just saying, alright, I've 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:37.520 got the last mile problem. It's gonna come to a head, 0:17:38.119 --> 0:17:40.920 all right, because we've got more and more people going online, 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:45.760 getting the broadband connections to the internet, uh, and they 0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:48.840 expect to have that lightning fast service. And if enough 0:17:48.840 --> 0:17:52.200 people connect to that last mile, the last mile being 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:56.360 the space between the backbone of the Internet and your house. Essentially, 0:17:57.119 --> 0:18:00.880 if enough people are clogging up those tubes to use 0:18:00.880 --> 0:18:06.240 a serially inappropriate phrase, um, then the slower your service 0:18:06.280 --> 0:18:08.959 is going to be. And as customers get more and 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:10.920 more savvy of this, they're going to demand their I 0:18:11.080 --> 0:18:14.680 s p s upgrade the system and address this last 0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:19.760 mile problem, especially as you see companies embrace the Internet 0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:23.600 as a way of distributing media even more than they 0:18:23.640 --> 0:18:27.200 already have. As that continues to increase and people begin 0:18:27.280 --> 0:18:29.840 to consume more and more of their media through the Internet, 0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:33.280 they're going to need that problem fixed or there will 0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:36.399 be hell to pay I had a feeling you're going 0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:40.119 to say that, Yeah, it was a prediction. Um, okay. 0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:42.680 I a long time ago we bought a really cheap 0:18:42.720 --> 0:18:47.520 TV by this UH company called Samsung, and I thought, 0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:50.320 you know, for the longest time that they were a 0:18:50.359 --> 0:18:54.399 lobe and player. Well they reinvented themselves to take on 0:18:54.480 --> 0:18:59.600 Sony and another company, gold Star came. I don't know LG. 0:19:00.400 --> 0:19:02.040 So I have a prediction. Is who that the next 0:19:02.080 --> 0:19:03.760 company is going to be. I think it's gonna be 0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:08.199 a SUS Yes, yeah, Well see the thing is they 0:19:08.240 --> 0:19:10.639 have an aries smart fountain that they just introduced not 0:19:10.720 --> 0:19:14.800 too long ago, so they're not just producing netbooks. And 0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:16.840 that's the way that these other guys, you know, they 0:19:16.880 --> 0:19:19.239 worked up. They at the low end electronics and then 0:19:19.280 --> 0:19:23.720 they built themselves up and you never know who's that. Yeah, 0:19:23.760 --> 0:19:27.639 and there's certainly the Chinese electronics manufacturers in general. I 0:19:27.640 --> 0:19:29.720 think we're going to see a lot more of Well 0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:33.320 I have I have only one more? Okay, why okay, yeah, 0:19:33.640 --> 0:19:37.040 so here's my last one. Okay, it's also a gimme. Yeah. 0:19:37.160 --> 0:19:41.320 Green technology will be huge. As a matter of fact, 0:19:41.440 --> 0:19:46.360 a SUS has some very green technologies. They have some 0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:50.639 I think grass laptops. Yeah, so you know, well, and 0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:56.280 it's just becomes it's become the word your really, I mean, 0:19:56.280 --> 0:19:59.000 the whole still have to do it now because it's 0:19:59.040 --> 0:20:01.840 you know, it's not just an environmental it's also economical 0:20:01.880 --> 0:20:05.159 and marketing and marketing. Yeah, they're all these different reasons 0:20:05.160 --> 0:20:08.600 why people are embracing the whole green movement. Uh. And 0:20:08.680 --> 0:20:11.280 it's it's it started off as kind of a niche thing. 0:20:11.359 --> 0:20:12.960 You know, you'd be like, oh, those hippies with the 0:20:13.320 --> 0:20:18.080 green movement. Well, no, it's no I'm one of those hippies. Now. Yeah, 0:20:18.520 --> 0:20:21.000 so it's gonna be even bigger, I think in two 0:20:21.040 --> 0:20:23.200 thousand nine, and I think we're gonna probably see several 0:20:23.240 --> 0:20:27.000 scandals as well, or at least interesting stories about companies 0:20:27.040 --> 0:20:28.840 that are claiming to be really green. But if you 0:20:28.920 --> 0:20:32.159 dig a little deeper, you'll see that maybe those claims 0:20:32.160 --> 0:20:36.639 are not all accurate. They're greenwashing. Yeah you might say, yeah, 0:20:36.920 --> 0:20:38.480 all right, well I had a few, but they can 0:20:38.480 --> 0:20:43.000 all be shortish. Um. I think that HDTV prices have 0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:47.000 hit their peak. I think they're gonna start stagnating in 0:20:47.040 --> 0:20:50.159 a big way and maybe even come down. Since prices 0:20:50.160 --> 0:20:54.400 have been deflating anyway. Um, I think we're gonna hear 0:20:54.480 --> 0:20:57.480 something serious from Amazon on the kindle too, but not 0:20:57.600 --> 0:21:02.480 from serious. Yeah, no, it can too. Okay, that makes sense. Um, 0:21:02.520 --> 0:21:04.399