WEBVTT - Biden, Trump and the U.S. Energy Transition 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:02.880 You are listening to Bloomberg Switched on the b n 0:00:03.040 --> 0:00:05.960 F podcast. I'm Dana Perkins, and today we're going to 0:00:06.040 --> 0:00:09.119 talk about the United States. The whole world seems to 0:00:09.200 --> 0:00:12.240 be looking at the upcoming US election, and with November 0:00:12.320 --> 0:00:15.680 three right around the corner, there is plenty to speculate about. 0:00:16.239 --> 0:00:19.040 So today we're going to hear from Ethan Zindler, he's 0:00:19.040 --> 0:00:21.960 head of America's here at b NF, and Stephen Monroe, 0:00:22.160 --> 0:00:24.799 who is a policy analyst. Here. We discussed some of 0:00:24.840 --> 0:00:27.360 the significant things that have happened over the past four 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:29.960 years and what's hanging in the balance for the next 0:00:30.160 --> 0:00:32.560 what's the status of the Paris Climate Accord, the Clean 0:00:32.600 --> 0:00:35.920 Power Plan or the Green New Deal. What's happening with coal, 0:00:36.360 --> 0:00:40.680 natural gas, renewables and electric vehicles, and how about that 0:00:40.760 --> 0:00:43.519 two trillion in climate spending that was promised as a 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:47.000 part of Biden's platform. Where do executive orders and the 0:00:47.000 --> 0:00:50.319 filibuster rule play into this. Well, we've got a lot 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:52.839 to cover today, but it's also worth pointing out that 0:00:52.920 --> 0:00:54.880 one of the things that we did not cover was 0:00:54.920 --> 0:00:57.800 the Supreme Court and what the replacement for the late 0:00:57.920 --> 0:01:01.440 Great Ruth Bader Ginsburg will mean as we had recorded 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:04.240 this just prior to her passing. A quick reminder, b 0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:07.240 ANF does not provide investment or strategy advice. We have 0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:09.920 a full disclaimer at the end of the show. Now, 0:01:10.240 --> 0:01:20.800 let's talk about the United States. Ethan Stephen, thank you 0:01:20.800 --> 0:01:23.319 for joining us today on switched On. Glad to be here, 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:25.480 Great to be here. Today. We're going to talk about 0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:28.600 the upcoming US elections, and we're going to get into 0:01:28.640 --> 0:01:31.600 some of the stuff that be ENF specifically knows around 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:35.920 power and transport and natural gas, and then some policies. 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:39.160 But let's let's first start and talk about the scenarios 0:01:39.200 --> 0:01:42.800 that could potentially exist. So looking forward to November, what 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:45.800 are the potential outcomes of the election? Well, I guess 0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:48.360 I'll kick it off, and you know, obviously the thing 0:01:48.400 --> 0:01:52.280 that gets the most headlines here and internationally is the 0:01:52.280 --> 0:01:55.800 presidential race. And so stating the obvious, we will in 0:01:55.880 --> 0:01:57.960 theory have a winner the day after the election. It 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:01.440 might frankly take longer, but uh hopefully we will have 0:02:01.440 --> 0:02:05.280 an undisputed winner of that election, will either be President 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:08.720 Trump winning re election for four more years or former 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:12.080 Vice President Joe Biden taking the office. So that's the 0:02:12.120 --> 0:02:14.360 first thing. And then, of course there are a lot 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:17.640 of important races taking place so called down the ballot 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:21.639 in terms of the Congress, and in those cases, the 0:02:21.760 --> 0:02:25.480 real key area that we're watching, and many others are 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:29.240 is the US Senate. The Democrats can control the House 0:02:29.240 --> 0:02:32.320 of Representatives at the moment, that does not look like 0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:35.920 it's under much threat at the moment. The Republicans, however, 0:02:36.000 --> 0:02:40.200 control the Senate, and only by a small margin. And 0:02:40.360 --> 0:02:42.400 so one of the things that we'll be watching very 0:02:42.400 --> 0:02:46.200 carefully is to see if Democrats win the relatively small 0:02:46.280 --> 0:02:49.360 number of seats they need to take control of the Senate. 0:02:49.480 --> 0:02:51.840 They could take control by picking up as little as 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:55.880 three additional seats if Biden wins the White House. So 0:02:56.160 --> 0:02:58.760 let's dig in to what this election means for some 0:02:58.800 --> 0:03:01.720 of the things that we specifically covered. Be enough, So 0:03:01.840 --> 0:03:05.040 let's first start, I think and talk about power sector emissions. 0:03:05.360 --> 0:03:08.840 So there are where I'm recording from, So in London 0:03:08.880 --> 0:03:14.200 we talk a lot about net zero. What is kind 0:03:14.200 --> 0:03:17.120 of the future of emissions in the United States, and 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:20.560 kind of what's the dialogue like going on over there? Well, 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:24.079 I'll start um and Steph please fill in any holes here. 0:03:24.280 --> 0:03:28.040 Uh you long story short is the arrival of President Trump, 0:03:28.320 --> 0:03:31.160 talking about CEO two emissions at the federal level has 0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:34.000 largely gone out of style. And that is you know, 0:03:34.040 --> 0:03:36.400 one of the first actions that the President took was 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:39.360 to set in motion or to start turning the wheels 0:03:39.560 --> 0:03:44.160 towards getting the US out of the planet Paris Climate accord. Uh. 0:03:44.200 --> 0:03:48.360 And while that process isn't is actually not officially done yet. 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:50.760 For all intents and purposes, there have not been any 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:54.480 real efforts from the federal government to try to meet 0:03:54.560 --> 0:03:59.600 the Paris targets. Interestingly, and somewhat ironically, the US has 0:03:59.640 --> 0:04:03.480 been using our CEO two emissions even quite quickly during 0:04:03.880 --> 0:04:07.680 the last three years, and that is really largely due 0:04:07.720 --> 0:04:10.520 to the major dynamics that we were seeing in the 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:15.040 power sector before the arrival of Trump and so so, 0:04:15.080 --> 0:04:18.520 actually our emissions are down substantially from power, although they've 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.479 been rising a bit from the transportation sector. But the 0:04:21.480 --> 0:04:24.000 bottom line is that the US really is not in 0:04:24.040 --> 0:04:27.359 any great position now to meet the obligations of the 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:30.560 Paris Agreement. You know, based on what we've seen over 0:04:30.560 --> 0:04:32.600 the last couple of years, I'm guessing some of these 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:36.200 power sector emissions reducing has a lot to do with coal, 0:04:36.400 --> 0:04:39.560 So can you elaborate on that a bit, because I 0:04:39.600 --> 0:04:41.720 think that's been one of the topics that's come up 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:46.520 over and over again during this current president's tenure in office. 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:48.440 Is kind of a move to try and see if 0:04:48.480 --> 0:04:52.359 they could rescue the coal industry. But what has that 0:04:52.400 --> 0:04:54.080 actually been like and what does the future of the 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:57.960 coal industry look like? Agnostic of whose president, Well, I 0:04:57.960 --> 0:05:01.640 think what can be said of interestry is that the 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:05.320 US and Europe have basically been tracking each other in 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:09.680 terms of the elimination or removal of coal from the 0:05:09.680 --> 0:05:13.200 power mix, but they've been doing so with entirely different objectives. 0:05:13.320 --> 0:05:15.320 And what I mean by that is that in Europe, 0:05:15.760 --> 0:05:19.000 the withdrawal of coal from the market has been largely 0:05:19.160 --> 0:05:25.039 policy driven and has broad public support. In the US, 0:05:25.440 --> 0:05:28.240 the removal of coal from the power mix has actually 0:05:28.240 --> 0:05:32.200 gone against the policy intentions of the Trump administration, which 0:05:32.200 --> 0:05:37.640 has taken every step that it could can take without 0:05:37.720 --> 0:05:41.440 seeking legislative approval to retain coal in the power mix. 0:05:41.800 --> 0:05:44.800 And specifically, what I'm referring to is that in early 0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:48.920 in his term, President Trump canceled the Clean Power Plan, 0:05:49.000 --> 0:05:55.000 which was a signature power initiative of the Obama administration 0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:58.359 that would have effectively eliminated coal over a period of time. 0:05:58.680 --> 0:06:02.800 But despite eliminating the Clean Power Plan and replacing it 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:05.800 with a much more lenient regulatory package, as far as 0:06:05.839 --> 0:06:10.760 coal is concerned, the US has continued to see withdrawals 0:06:10.760 --> 0:06:14.520 and retirements of coal plants. So, in summary, what we 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:17.479 have in Europe, which is largely policy driven and to 0:06:17.520 --> 0:06:21.159 a lesser extent economically driven in the US is the 0:06:21.200 --> 0:06:25.920 result of almost exclusively economically determined factors. Yeah, I would 0:06:25.920 --> 0:06:28.440 totally agree with that. And just to put one specific 0:06:28.480 --> 0:06:30.960 around it, I mean, when Trump came into office, coal 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:35.400 accounted for about of all US power. You know, it's 0:06:35.400 --> 0:06:39.920 now down to about in twenty nineteen and very well 0:06:39.960 --> 0:06:42.280 could be lower this year as well. You know, you 0:06:42.320 --> 0:06:44.800 look at the run numbers. There hasn't been a lot 0:06:44.880 --> 0:06:47.440 to move the needle. That hasn't been lacked for lack 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:49.760 of trying on the part of the Trump administration. But 0:06:49.880 --> 0:06:53.520 Steph mentions, uh, and I would I would agree. I 0:06:53.560 --> 0:06:56.640 think there's only so much that an administration can get 0:06:56.680 --> 0:07:00.560 done unilaterally. You do need to really move the needle. 0:07:00.640 --> 0:07:04.320 For coal, you would need some kind of legislation through Congress, 0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:07.600 and the Democrats control the House, and even when Republicans 0:07:07.640 --> 0:07:10.920 controlled the House, there was no major action towards that. 0:07:11.360 --> 0:07:14.600 So we've gone from thirty down to the mix. What 0:07:14.760 --> 0:07:16.640 is made up that seven percent gap? And what does 0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:18.960 the power mix look like now? Well, just maybe to 0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:21.480 round it out, I mean, we went from gas being 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:25.160 about thirty four percent of generation to about thirty eight percent, 0:07:25.680 --> 0:07:29.760 and renewables have jumped as well, despite again clear aversion 0:07:29.760 --> 0:07:32.840 to them from the President, still under you know, you know, 0:07:32.880 --> 0:07:36.320 about ten percent in that neighborhood for non hydro renewables 0:07:36.360 --> 0:07:38.600 at the moment, but it has been growing on a 0:07:38.640 --> 0:07:41.760 generation basis, so it's really been a combination of gas 0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:47.080 and renewables. Nuclear has been slowly declining as we've seen, 0:07:47.360 --> 0:07:51.480 you know, each year several nuclear reactors announced their retirement 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:53.360 and come offline. But we still have about a hundred 0:07:53.360 --> 0:07:57.000 giga wats of nuclear, which is about of the total 0:07:57.160 --> 0:08:01.360 power and is about of this zero carbon power that 0:08:01.400 --> 0:08:04.440 the United States has online. It needs to be pointed 0:08:04.480 --> 0:08:09.240 out that the decarbonization of the US power sector still 0:08:09.280 --> 0:08:12.600 remains a bit of a distant objective, even though coal 0:08:12.880 --> 0:08:15.840 is retreating rapidly from the market. As Ethan points out, 0:08:15.880 --> 0:08:19.720 gas is taking a large share of the market being 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:23.600 abandoned by coal and gas while it certainly is burned 0:08:23.640 --> 0:08:27.200 with much less carbon emissions than coal, nevertheless is an 0:08:27.240 --> 0:08:31.000 emitting resource, and it is one that the Trump administration 0:08:31.200 --> 0:08:34.240 has gone to great lengths to support. On a separate track, 0:08:34.320 --> 0:08:39.200 then it's relatively unsuccessful supporting measures for coal. Well, soon, 0:08:39.320 --> 0:08:41.800 let's talk about some of the potential outcomes, because one 0:08:41.800 --> 0:08:43.560 of the things that came up, I think, on the 0:08:43.600 --> 0:08:46.920 campaign trail was that Biden's got this two trillion dollar 0:08:47.480 --> 0:08:51.560 potential green focus, energy and climate plan. What does it 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:55.680 look like in the future for renewables and I guess 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:58.800 the power sector altogether depending upon these two outcomes, Are 0:08:58.800 --> 0:09:01.560 these going to be massively virgent or is it still 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:04.760 sort of separate from whether or not who is president 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:07.200 and what matters much more who's in the Senate. Well, 0:09:07.240 --> 0:09:09.320 if we want to look at Biden's platform, and I 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:12.200 certainly think it's appropriate to do so, you are correct. 0:09:12.320 --> 0:09:16.200 He has committed to make a two trillion dollar accelerated 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:18.920 investment during his first term that all of which would 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:24.160 be directed broadly towards meeting ambitious climate goals that, according 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:27.360 to Biden, is demanded by the science. Spreading that to 0:09:27.480 --> 0:09:30.560 trillion out much of it would go to infrastructure and 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:34.560 specifically the power sector. He also would like to devote 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:38.040 segment of it to R and D technologies, or R 0:09:38.120 --> 0:09:42.080 and D into technologies that such as battery storage, and 0:09:42.320 --> 0:09:46.400 he would negotiate He wants to negotiate fuel standards. He 0:09:46.400 --> 0:09:49.800 wants to renegotiate fuel economy standards that have been deluded 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:53.160 in the Trump administration, and in doing so that would 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:57.439 have the effect of raising demand rather rapidly for electric vehicles, which, 0:09:57.760 --> 0:10:01.200 as I mentioned, would be a significant receipt recipient of 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:03.880 some of this financial largest So, if I could just 0:10:03.920 --> 0:10:06.120 add a little on the politics on it, two trillion 0:10:06.160 --> 0:10:09.160 dollars may sound like a lot of money, and that 0:10:09.240 --> 0:10:11.200 is because it's a lot of money, a lot of money, 0:10:11.400 --> 0:10:15.840 and um, we're these normal political times. I think I 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:19.880 would probably say there's just no way that we'll ever 0:10:19.960 --> 0:10:23.719 see that kind of money allocated in this area just 0:10:23.800 --> 0:10:27.440 because of fiscal conservatism. However, you know, these are very 0:10:27.520 --> 0:10:30.440 unusual times, and we have already seen well over a 0:10:30.480 --> 0:10:34.640 trillion dollars in stimulus that's been passed by Congress, and 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:37.120 several trillion more that's been passed by the U. S. 0:10:37.120 --> 0:10:40.360 House of Representatives but not by the Senate. So there 0:10:40.360 --> 0:10:42.840 does seem to be a recognition that these are extremely 0:10:43.080 --> 0:10:45.880 unusual and challenging times in the U. S. Economy. I 0:10:45.880 --> 0:10:47.760 don't know where where will end the year in terms 0:10:47.800 --> 0:10:51.080 of GDP, but it will be a very sharp contraction. 0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:54.319 So you know, that does make a lot more possible. 0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:58.480 But there's definitely going to have to be quite a 0:10:58.559 --> 0:11:01.480 result in the our into election. I think for us 0:11:01.520 --> 0:11:06.079 to see a number like two trillion even anywhere near consideration, 0:11:06.559 --> 0:11:09.600 and namely, Biden will have to win the election. Democrats 0:11:09.600 --> 0:11:12.240 will have to win the Senate, and then one other 0:11:12.559 --> 0:11:15.680 fairly technical but important thing will have to happen, most likely, 0:11:15.720 --> 0:11:19.000 which is that the Democrats will have to agree to 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:23.200 essentially abolish something known as the filibuster rule in the Senate. 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:26.920 In other words, they will have to change the rules 0:11:26.920 --> 0:11:30.400 so that all you need is fifty plus one vote 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:33.680 to make something happen in the Senate. Right now, without 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:36.920 getting into too many technical details, basically, it's very hard 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:38.840 to do a lot of things in the Senate without 0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:42.520 having sixty votes, but if you drop that to fifty one, 0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:45.720 a lot more becomes possible. Yes, and I agree with 0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:48.880 Ethan's observation that two trillion dollars is a lot of money, 0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:54.080 and it certainly is the eye catching part of Biden's platform. 0:11:54.360 --> 0:11:58.080 I would suggest, however, that perhaps one of the more significant, 0:11:58.559 --> 0:12:00.840 perhaps the most significant part of the platform, is his 0:12:01.240 --> 0:12:06.400 call to completely decarbonize the power sector, or I should say, 0:12:06.440 --> 0:12:10.720 make the carbon sector carbon pollution free by which is 0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:15.120 less than fifteen years away. That's a tremendously ambitious undertaking 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:18.160 if Biden were to be elected president, and even if 0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:21.880 he were to secure a democratic majority in both the 0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:24.120 House and the Senate, in other words, even if he 0:12:24.160 --> 0:12:28.440 had a full wind at his back. Nevertheless, remains a 0:12:28.600 --> 0:12:32.800 very ambitious undertaking man. There really isn't any precedent in 0:12:33.920 --> 0:12:37.440 an energy transition of that speed anywhere in history. Well, so, 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:39.920 staying on that theme of that money, what we discussed 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:43.320 just earlier is regarding the coal industry and what will 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:46.040 likely be its phase out for economic reasons. But when 0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:48.040 we're talking about the coal industry and why there's been 0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:50.760 so much emphasis on it in recent past, it really 0:12:50.960 --> 0:12:53.720 comes down to jobs, and it comes down to people's livelihoods. 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:57.560 And within that two trillion dollars, is that considered to 0:12:57.600 --> 0:13:01.679 be a particular stimulus package. Is it considered to be 0:13:01.760 --> 0:13:04.960 a massive job creator or is it more focused on 0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:09.600 climate and CEO two emissions. Well, jobs has been the 0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:13.480 basis for Trump's state of support for coal, but the 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:17.600 reality is that jobs in the coal sector began falling 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:22.199 long before President Trump took office, and they today account 0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:27.080 for a very small sector of the economy. Interestingly, Joe 0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:32.240 Biden's platform is also very jobs oriented, and so to 0:13:32.240 --> 0:13:35.160 a certain extent, you have both the president and the 0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:39.640 challenger basing their policies, their climate and energy policies on 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:46.240 job creation. But the Trump basis of jobs creation certainly 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:48.880 would have to be expanded beyond coal to have much 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:52.240 validity because of the fact that the coal industry is 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:55.240 a declining sector in the economy. I think an answer 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:57.920 to your question, and you know, is this about jobs? 0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:00.760 Is this about climate? The answer is us to everything. 0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:04.040 I think that that's the intention here. Um. I do 0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:07.320 think one thing that's intriguing in the Biden plan that 0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:10.560 I do hope well, I think frankly, ultimately we'll have 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:13.280 to get addressed is that, you know, Biden's conception of 0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:18.160 a job is a unionized job with union worker protections 0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:22.080 and wages, And if we're honest that is that is 0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:24.720 not the case for many jobs in the clean energy 0:14:24.800 --> 0:14:28.640 sector today. And so how you square that circle? I 0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:30.360 think it's going to be one of the more interesting 0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:34.160 challenges for a Biden administration if there is one yes, 0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:36.480 absolutely true, I would point out that jobs is by 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:40.080 far the most frequently used word in the Biden campaign, 0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.920 but the second most frequently used words union. Jobs gets 0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:47.880 fifty three mentions in the In the Biden platform, union 0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:50.640 gets thirty two mentions, and both of those words get 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:54.880 more mentions than clean energy, carbon or power. Okay, so 0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:58.080 let's go into emissions, which isn't mentioned as often in 0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:01.880 his platform, and let's talk about transportation related emissions, which 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:05.280 are the largest source of emissions in the United States 0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:08.040 right now. So what does the future hold in the 0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:12.960 transportation space? In the Trump era? We've seen a division 0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:16.440 grow between the US and Europe certainly, and between the 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:20.520 between the US and China in the level of electric 0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:23.160 vehicle penetration, and the US is going to continue to 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:27.240 lose ground to those two regions on the adoption should 0:15:27.240 --> 0:15:31.600 Trump be reelected, because none of his policy initiatives are 0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:35.040 intentionally aimed at promoting that particular sector. We have been 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:38.720 expect that China and Europe together are going to account 0:15:38.720 --> 0:15:44.080 for a combined of global EV sales. So you can 0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:46.680 see that the US as a minischool part of the 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:49.480 remain Even if the US were to have the majority 0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:51.360 of the remainder, we still will be talking about a 0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:55.320 less share. So really this is the current trajectory and 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:59.240 likely to stay to stay on pace. So the economics 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:02.480 aren't there yet for there to be wide range EV adoption. 0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:06.320 How about charging stations? Are those rolling out charging stations 0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:10.440 as a recipient of policy support have received zero support 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:12.920 in the Trump years and Biden would pivot to a 0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:16.880 great deal support both by leveraging federal R and D 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:21.360 but also by leveraging federal procurement of electric vehicles and 0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:26.000 funding the deployment of charging stations to support them. So 0:16:26.120 --> 0:16:29.000 there's a pretty clear difference between the two candidates in 0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:33.480 their view of the e V of the e V 0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:38.280 role in the marketplace. The interesting wild card, as I 0:16:38.320 --> 0:16:41.680 see it, is that US is on the verge of 0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:47.240 introducing to the market electrically powered light trucks, which that's 0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:50.120 a big part of our of our fleet vehicle fleet 0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:52.920 over here in the US, and it remains a very 0:16:52.920 --> 0:16:55.720 popular part of the market. So to the extent that 0:16:56.160 --> 0:17:02.400 the US introduces electrically powered like pick up trucks and SUVs, 0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:05.199 there does exist an opportunity for the US to do 0:17:05.320 --> 0:17:08.840 a relatively rapid catch up or at least trying to 0:17:08.880 --> 0:17:12.040 close the gap between the EV share of the fleets 0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:14.119 here and in the rest of the world. If I 0:17:14.160 --> 0:17:17.000 could add a small note of optimism if I can 0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:19.600 about US and and evs, which is that you know, 0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:22.439 we we are home to Tesla obviously UM, and we're 0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:24.560 home to a number of other startups that are now 0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:29.840 raising gobs of money to be electric carmakers and and 0:17:29.840 --> 0:17:32.800 and certainly the Chinese as a staff notes, you know, 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:35.040 there's more more evs on the road over there, and 0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:38.239 there's more manufacturing what over there. But we we do 0:17:38.320 --> 0:17:42.320 have the one and only truly global brand for electric 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:45.280 vehicles in Tesla, and it is UM and is proving 0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:48.240 popular really where almost any part of the world where 0:17:48.280 --> 0:17:50.240 you can get your hands on one. So you know, 0:17:50.240 --> 0:17:53.280 I do think there's an opportunity for the US to 0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:55.920 to be a leader on the manufacturing of electric vehicles. 0:17:56.320 --> 0:17:58.359 It won't be easy by any means, and it would 0:17:58.359 --> 0:18:02.399 definitely help if would have policies in place that could 0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:06.679 make this a reliable demand market here domestically. But I 0:18:06.680 --> 0:18:10.080 do think there is that that potential opportunity because as 0:18:10.119 --> 0:18:13.120 you guys both know, you know, buying a car, yes, 0:18:13.400 --> 0:18:16.160 you do think about whether it's got a good does 0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:20.040 it make sense economically, but there is a completely non 0:18:20.280 --> 0:18:23.280 rational part of the sales process as well. They can 0:18:23.400 --> 0:18:26.120 drive that. You can drive people to want to buy things, 0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:28.680 um just as they're cool or because they're really fun 0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:32.159 to drive. And it remains key in the US in 0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:37.040 terms of the adoption of evs that fuel economy standards 0:18:37.080 --> 0:18:41.480 for internal combustion vehicles be strict and to be additive 0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:45.920 over the course of years, and the Trump administration UM 0:18:46.119 --> 0:18:49.280 has taken steps to in effect freeze the progress of 0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:52.480 rising fuel economy standards in the States, and it also 0:18:52.520 --> 0:18:56.159 has moved to take away the ability of California to 0:18:56.200 --> 0:19:01.200 set its own requirements. So regardless of individual sectors of 0:19:01.280 --> 0:19:05.960 the eating marketplace, what is at present lacking and would 0:19:06.080 --> 0:19:09.119 continue to be absent in in the event of a 0:19:09.160 --> 0:19:14.600 Trump reelection. Are fuel economy standards that that push the market, 0:19:14.640 --> 0:19:18.880 if you will, towards the acceptance of more fuel efficient 0:19:18.920 --> 0:19:22.280 vehicles and zero emission vehicles such as these. So it 0:19:22.280 --> 0:19:24.840 seems like there's a pretty stark difference depending upon the 0:19:24.880 --> 0:19:27.240 outcome of the next election regarding what happens in the 0:19:27.280 --> 0:19:33.600 transportation sector. Let's talk about US emissions mix and started 0:19:33.640 --> 0:19:36.040 part of the power sector actually, which has to do 0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:40.560 with gas and oil. So oil and gas, what does 0:19:40.640 --> 0:19:43.800 that look like in the future, because the US has 0:19:44.000 --> 0:19:46.880 sort of had a I think renaissance was the word 0:19:46.960 --> 0:19:49.960 that in our discussions of leading up to today, Ethan 0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:54.040 you were saying regarding natural gas and is now a 0:19:54.080 --> 0:19:57.320 net exporter? Yeah, I mean so basically, you know, the 0:19:57.400 --> 0:20:00.840 US had just reached the point where we were effectively 0:20:01.000 --> 0:20:05.399 almost a net energy exporter, uh. And we're you know, 0:20:05.480 --> 0:20:09.320 a net oil exporter. Uh. And we're ramping up gas exports. 0:20:09.440 --> 0:20:11.480 And then of course a long came this year, which 0:20:11.560 --> 0:20:16.120 is completely disrupted demand for petroleum products. But it is 0:20:16.240 --> 0:20:19.760 just kind of amazing the level of the surge that 0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:24.200 we saw a so called unconventional production of oil and gas. 0:20:24.880 --> 0:20:28.040 I think there are very big questions obviously about where 0:20:28.040 --> 0:20:31.359 we go from here. First, of course, there's the industry itself, 0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:34.680 which is now suddenly a lot of pain and had 0:20:34.720 --> 0:20:37.560 been burning through cash, let's be clear, for quite some time, 0:20:38.000 --> 0:20:42.199 even before COVID nineteen arrived, but now all of a sudden, 0:20:42.200 --> 0:20:45.280 with a lower oil price environment UM, oil and gas 0:20:45.280 --> 0:20:49.360 producers are definitely suffering from that. So that's the that's 0:20:49.400 --> 0:20:52.679 the backdrop that we have here. The look forward, and 0:20:52.720 --> 0:20:55.440 the piece that I'm sort of interested to see how 0:20:55.440 --> 0:20:58.640 it gets resolved is, as Steph mentioned earlier, at least 0:20:58.640 --> 0:21:02.679 on the power side, Biden is pledging to get us 0:21:02.720 --> 0:21:06.520 to zero percent CEO two emissions from our power sector 0:21:06.600 --> 0:21:12.119 by well, you know, if about of our power last 0:21:12.200 --> 0:21:15.440 year came from gas, that's a lot of gas demand 0:21:15.920 --> 0:21:19.040 that would in theory disappear. Uh. And then the question 0:21:19.200 --> 0:21:21.400 is can let gas be used in some other way? 0:21:21.600 --> 0:21:23.639 Is there enough of an export market on l n 0:21:23.720 --> 0:21:26.080 G to make up for that, or there are other 0:21:26.119 --> 0:21:29.359 segments of the economy UM where gas can be used. 0:21:29.440 --> 0:21:31.520 And we still we certainly have a number of homes, 0:21:31.520 --> 0:21:34.760 particularly in New England for instance, that are using oil 0:21:34.880 --> 0:21:37.679 to heat their homes. Could gas be used there? But 0:21:37.760 --> 0:21:42.240 practically speaking, if you were to basically evaporate what is 0:21:42.280 --> 0:21:44.560 something I'm guessing about thirty or forty percent of total 0:21:44.640 --> 0:21:48.320 gas demand in the US. By going to zero percent 0:21:48.440 --> 0:21:51.880 carbon in the power sector, that would have major implications. 0:21:51.880 --> 0:21:54.640 And so then the question is what is the Biden 0:21:54.680 --> 0:21:59.280 position on fracking? What is its position on what does 0:21:59.280 --> 0:22:03.960 the campaign edition on doing fracking on federal lands doing 0:22:03.960 --> 0:22:07.080 it on private lands? I would say I don't have 0:22:07.320 --> 0:22:10.439 a complete clarity on that question at the moment. The 0:22:10.520 --> 0:22:13.320 campaign has set a couple of different things. The other day, 0:22:13.720 --> 0:22:16.399 there was an effort when he was in Pittsburgh to 0:22:16.480 --> 0:22:18.800 make it make a point that that he's not against 0:22:18.840 --> 0:22:22.159 all fracking. And it's very worth noting that Pennsylvania is 0:22:22.160 --> 0:22:27.760 a state that has benefited enormously for fracking, specifically for gas. Uh. 0:22:27.800 --> 0:22:30.520 And so I think the politics on this one are 0:22:30.640 --> 0:22:33.760 are tricky and uh, you know, I don't think it's 0:22:34.680 --> 0:22:36.920 it's it's not at least entirely clear to me how 0:22:36.960 --> 0:22:40.160 we get to zero percent in our power sector without 0:22:40.200 --> 0:22:42.960 it affecting the gas sector. And I think there's some 0:22:43.000 --> 0:22:46.640 open questions very much on that at this point, Yeah, 0:22:46.680 --> 0:22:48.520 I would add that I think it's Biden has done 0:22:48.600 --> 0:22:52.800 himself himself no favors with his shifting positions on tracking, 0:22:52.840 --> 0:22:55.439 and when he first declared his candidacy, he was in 0:22:55.480 --> 0:22:58.400 favor of a blanket ban on the on the technology, 0:22:58.720 --> 0:23:02.679 then moved to call for a ban on fracking on 0:23:02.800 --> 0:23:06.920 federally least land only. As Ethan said, he recently told 0:23:06.920 --> 0:23:10.600 the Pennsylvania television interviewer that quote fracking is not going 0:23:10.640 --> 0:23:14.440 to be on the shopping block to remove support for tracking, 0:23:14.440 --> 0:23:18.960