1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:02,880 Speaker 1: You are listening to Bloomberg Switched on the b n 2 00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 1: F podcast. I'm Dana Perkins, and today we're going to 3 00:00:06,040 --> 00:00:09,119 Speaker 1: talk about the United States. The whole world seems to 4 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:12,240 Speaker 1: be looking at the upcoming US election, and with November 5 00:00:12,320 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 1: three right around the corner, there is plenty to speculate about. 6 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:19,040 Speaker 1: So today we're going to hear from Ethan Zindler, he's 7 00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:21,960 Speaker 1: head of America's here at b NF, and Stephen Monroe, 8 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:24,799 Speaker 1: who is a policy analyst. Here. We discussed some of 9 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: the significant things that have happened over the past four 10 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:29,960 Speaker 1: years and what's hanging in the balance for the next 11 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:32,560 Speaker 1: what's the status of the Paris Climate Accord, the Clean 12 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 1: Power Plan or the Green New Deal. What's happening with coal, 13 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: natural gas, renewables and electric vehicles, and how about that 14 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:43,519 Speaker 1: two trillion in climate spending that was promised as a 15 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: part of Biden's platform. Where do executive orders and the 16 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:50,319 Speaker 1: filibuster rule play into this. Well, we've got a lot 17 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 1: to cover today, but it's also worth pointing out that 18 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 1: one of the things that we did not cover was 19 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 1: the Supreme Court and what the replacement for the late 20 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 1: Great Ruth Bader Ginsburg will mean as we had recorded 21 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 1: this just prior to her passing. A quick reminder, b 22 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 1: ANF does not provide investment or strategy advice. We have 23 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 1: a full disclaimer at the end of the show. Now, 24 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:20,800 Speaker 1: let's talk about the United States. Ethan Stephen, thank you 25 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:23,319 Speaker 1: for joining us today on switched On. Glad to be here, 26 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 1: Great to be here. Today. We're going to talk about 27 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 1: the upcoming US elections, and we're going to get into 28 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 1: some of the stuff that be ENF specifically knows around 29 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 1: power and transport and natural gas, and then some policies. 30 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 1: But let's let's first start and talk about the scenarios 31 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 1: that could potentially exist. So looking forward to November, what 32 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 1: are the potential outcomes of the election? Well, I guess 33 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 1: I'll kick it off, and you know, obviously the thing 34 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 1: that gets the most headlines here and internationally is the 35 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 1: presidential race. And so stating the obvious, we will in 36 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: theory have a winner the day after the election. It 37 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: might frankly take longer, but uh hopefully we will have 38 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 1: an undisputed winner of that election, will either be President 39 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: Trump winning re election for four more years or former 40 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:12,080 Speaker 1: Vice President Joe Biden taking the office. So that's the 41 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:14,360 Speaker 1: first thing. And then, of course there are a lot 42 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:17,640 Speaker 1: of important races taking place so called down the ballot 43 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:21,639 Speaker 1: in terms of the Congress, and in those cases, the 44 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: real key area that we're watching, and many others are 45 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 1: is the US Senate. The Democrats can control the House 46 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 1: of Representatives at the moment, that does not look like 47 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:35,920 Speaker 1: it's under much threat at the moment. The Republicans, however, 48 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 1: control the Senate, and only by a small margin. And 49 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 1: so one of the things that we'll be watching very 50 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 1: carefully is to see if Democrats win the relatively small 51 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:49,360 Speaker 1: number of seats they need to take control of the Senate. 52 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 1: They could take control by picking up as little as 53 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 1: three additional seats if Biden wins the White House. So 54 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:58,760 Speaker 1: let's dig in to what this election means for some 55 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: of the things that we specifically covered. Be enough, So 56 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 1: let's first start, I think and talk about power sector emissions. 57 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 1: So there are where I'm recording from, So in London 58 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 1: we talk a lot about net zero. What is kind 59 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 1: of the future of emissions in the United States, and 60 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 1: kind of what's the dialogue like going on over there? Well, 61 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:24,079 Speaker 1: I'll start um and Steph please fill in any holes here. 62 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: Uh you long story short is the arrival of President Trump, 63 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: talking about CEO two emissions at the federal level has 64 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: largely gone out of style. And that is you know, 65 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 1: one of the first actions that the President took was 66 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: to set in motion or to start turning the wheels 67 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 1: towards getting the US out of the planet Paris Climate accord. Uh. 68 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 1: And while that process isn't is actually not officially done yet. 69 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: For all intents and purposes, there have not been any 70 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 1: real efforts from the federal government to try to meet 71 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 1: the Paris targets. Interestingly, and somewhat ironically, the US has 72 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 1: been using our CEO two emissions even quite quickly during 73 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 1: the last three years, and that is really largely due 74 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 1: to the major dynamics that we were seeing in the 75 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 1: power sector before the arrival of Trump and so so, 76 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 1: actually our emissions are down substantially from power, although they've 77 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,479 Speaker 1: been rising a bit from the transportation sector. But the 78 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 1: bottom line is that the US really is not in 79 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:27,359 Speaker 1: any great position now to meet the obligations of the 80 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 1: Paris Agreement. You know, based on what we've seen over 81 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 1: the last couple of years, I'm guessing some of these 82 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 1: power sector emissions reducing has a lot to do with coal, 83 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: So can you elaborate on that a bit, because I 84 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:41,720 Speaker 1: think that's been one of the topics that's come up 85 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: over and over again during this current president's tenure in office. 86 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 1: Is kind of a move to try and see if 87 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:52,359 Speaker 1: they could rescue the coal industry. But what has that 88 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 1: actually been like and what does the future of the 89 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 1: coal industry look like? Agnostic of whose president, Well, I 90 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: think what can be said of interestry is that the 91 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 1: US and Europe have basically been tracking each other in 92 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 1: terms of the elimination or removal of coal from the 93 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 1: power mix, but they've been doing so with entirely different objectives. 94 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 1: And what I mean by that is that in Europe, 95 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 1: the withdrawal of coal from the market has been largely 96 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:25,039 Speaker 1: policy driven and has broad public support. In the US, 97 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 1: the removal of coal from the power mix has actually 98 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 1: gone against the policy intentions of the Trump administration, which 99 00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 1: has taken every step that it could can take without 100 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 1: seeking legislative approval to retain coal in the power mix. 101 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 1: And specifically, what I'm referring to is that in early 102 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:48,920 Speaker 1: in his term, President Trump canceled the Clean Power Plan, 103 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 1: which was a signature power initiative of the Obama administration 104 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:58,359 Speaker 1: that would have effectively eliminated coal over a period of time. 105 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 1: But despite eliminating the Clean Power Plan and replacing it 106 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 1: with a much more lenient regulatory package, as far as 107 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 1: coal is concerned, the US has continued to see withdrawals 108 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 1: and retirements of coal plants. So, in summary, what we 109 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:17,479 Speaker 1: have in Europe, which is largely policy driven and to 110 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 1: a lesser extent economically driven in the US is the 111 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:25,920 Speaker 1: result of almost exclusively economically determined factors. Yeah, I would 112 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: totally agree with that. And just to put one specific 113 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 1: around it, I mean, when Trump came into office, coal 114 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: accounted for about of all US power. You know, it's 115 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 1: now down to about in twenty nineteen and very well 116 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:42,280 Speaker 1: could be lower this year as well. You know, you 117 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 1: look at the run numbers. There hasn't been a lot 118 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:47,440 Speaker 1: to move the needle. That hasn't been lacked for lack 119 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 1: of trying on the part of the Trump administration. But 120 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 1: Steph mentions, uh, and I would I would agree. I 121 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: think there's only so much that an administration can get 122 00:06:56,680 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 1: done unilaterally. You do need to really move the needle. 123 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 1: For coal, you would need some kind of legislation through Congress, 124 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:07,600 Speaker 1: and the Democrats control the House, and even when Republicans 125 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 1: controlled the House, there was no major action towards that. 126 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 1: So we've gone from thirty down to the mix. What 127 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 1: is made up that seven percent gap? And what does 128 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 1: the power mix look like now? Well, just maybe to 129 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 1: round it out, I mean, we went from gas being 130 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 1: about thirty four percent of generation to about thirty eight percent, 131 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 1: and renewables have jumped as well, despite again clear aversion 132 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 1: to them from the President, still under you know, you know, 133 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 1: about ten percent in that neighborhood for non hydro renewables 134 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 1: at the moment, but it has been growing on a 135 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 1: generation basis, so it's really been a combination of gas 136 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 1: and renewables. Nuclear has been slowly declining as we've seen, 137 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 1: you know, each year several nuclear reactors announced their retirement 138 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 1: and come offline. But we still have about a hundred 139 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 1: giga wats of nuclear, which is about of the total 140 00:07:57,160 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 1: power and is about of this zero carbon power that 141 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 1: the United States has online. It needs to be pointed 142 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:09,240 Speaker 1: out that the decarbonization of the US power sector still 143 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 1: remains a bit of a distant objective, even though coal 144 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 1: is retreating rapidly from the market. As Ethan points out, 145 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 1: gas is taking a large share of the market being 146 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 1: abandoned by coal and gas while it certainly is burned 147 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 1: with much less carbon emissions than coal, nevertheless is an 148 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 1: emitting resource, and it is one that the Trump administration 149 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 1: has gone to great lengths to support. On a separate track, 150 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 1: then it's relatively unsuccessful supporting measures for coal. Well, soon, 151 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 1: let's talk about some of the potential outcomes, because one 152 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:43,560 Speaker 1: of the things that came up, I think, on the 153 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 1: campaign trail was that Biden's got this two trillion dollar 154 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:51,560 Speaker 1: potential green focus, energy and climate plan. What does it 155 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 1: look like in the future for renewables and I guess 156 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 1: the power sector altogether depending upon these two outcomes, Are 157 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:01,560 Speaker 1: these going to be massively virgent or is it still 158 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 1: sort of separate from whether or not who is president 159 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:07,200 Speaker 1: and what matters much more who's in the Senate. Well, 160 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 1: if we want to look at Biden's platform, and I 161 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,200 Speaker 1: certainly think it's appropriate to do so, you are correct. 162 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:16,200 Speaker 1: He has committed to make a two trillion dollar accelerated 163 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: investment during his first term that all of which would 164 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 1: be directed broadly towards meeting ambitious climate goals that, according 165 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 1: to Biden, is demanded by the science. Spreading that to 166 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:30,560 Speaker 1: trillion out much of it would go to infrastructure and 167 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:34,560 Speaker 1: specifically the power sector. He also would like to devote 168 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 1: segment of it to R and D technologies, or R 169 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 1: and D into technologies that such as battery storage, and 170 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:46,400 Speaker 1: he would negotiate He wants to negotiate fuel standards. He 171 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: wants to renegotiate fuel economy standards that have been deluded 172 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 1: in the Trump administration, and in doing so that would 173 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:57,439 Speaker 1: have the effect of raising demand rather rapidly for electric vehicles, which, 174 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 1: as I mentioned, would be a significant receipt recipient of 175 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 1: some of this financial largest So, if I could just 176 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 1: add a little on the politics on it, two trillion 177 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 1: dollars may sound like a lot of money, and that 178 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 1: is because it's a lot of money, a lot of money, 179 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 1: and um, we're these normal political times. I think I 180 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 1: would probably say there's just no way that we'll ever 181 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:23,719 Speaker 1: see that kind of money allocated in this area just 182 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:27,440 Speaker 1: because of fiscal conservatism. However, you know, these are very 183 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:30,440 Speaker 1: unusual times, and we have already seen well over a 184 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 1: trillion dollars in stimulus that's been passed by Congress, and 185 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 1: several trillion more that's been passed by the U. S. 186 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:40,360 Speaker 1: House of Representatives but not by the Senate. So there 187 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:42,840 Speaker 1: does seem to be a recognition that these are extremely 188 00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 1: unusual and challenging times in the U. S. Economy. I 189 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:47,760 Speaker 1: don't know where where will end the year in terms 190 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 1: of GDP, but it will be a very sharp contraction. 191 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:54,319 Speaker 1: So you know, that does make a lot more possible. 192 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:58,480 Speaker 1: But there's definitely going to have to be quite a 193 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:01,480 Speaker 1: result in the our into election. I think for us 194 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:06,079 Speaker 1: to see a number like two trillion even anywhere near consideration, 195 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 1: and namely, Biden will have to win the election. Democrats 196 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 1: will have to win the Senate, and then one other 197 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:15,680 Speaker 1: fairly technical but important thing will have to happen, most likely, 198 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:19,000 Speaker 1: which is that the Democrats will have to agree to 199 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:23,200 Speaker 1: essentially abolish something known as the filibuster rule in the Senate. 200 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 1: In other words, they will have to change the rules 201 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 1: so that all you need is fifty plus one vote 202 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:33,680 Speaker 1: to make something happen in the Senate. Right now, without 203 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 1: getting into too many technical details, basically, it's very hard 204 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 1: to do a lot of things in the Senate without 205 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 1: having sixty votes, but if you drop that to fifty one, 206 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 1: a lot more becomes possible. Yes, and I agree with 207 00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 1: Ethan's observation that two trillion dollars is a lot of money, 208 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:54,080 Speaker 1: and it certainly is the eye catching part of Biden's platform. 209 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:58,080 Speaker 1: I would suggest, however, that perhaps one of the more significant, 210 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:00,840 Speaker 1: perhaps the most significant part of the platform, is his 211 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 1: call to completely decarbonize the power sector, or I should say, 212 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:10,720 Speaker 1: make the carbon sector carbon pollution free by which is 213 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 1: less than fifteen years away. That's a tremendously ambitious undertaking 214 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 1: if Biden were to be elected president, and even if 215 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 1: he were to secure a democratic majority in both the 216 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 1: House and the Senate, in other words, even if he 217 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 1: had a full wind at his back. Nevertheless, remains a 218 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 1: very ambitious undertaking man. There really isn't any precedent in 219 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:37,440 Speaker 1: an energy transition of that speed anywhere in history. Well, so, 220 00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 1: staying on that theme of that money, what we discussed 221 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 1: just earlier is regarding the coal industry and what will 222 00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: likely be its phase out for economic reasons. But when 223 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 1: we're talking about the coal industry and why there's been 224 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 1: so much emphasis on it in recent past, it really 225 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 1: comes down to jobs, and it comes down to people's livelihoods. 226 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:57,560 Speaker 1: And within that two trillion dollars, is that considered to 227 00:12:57,600 --> 00:13:01,679 Speaker 1: be a particular stimulus package. Is it considered to be 228 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 1: a massive job creator or is it more focused on 229 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 1: climate and CEO two emissions. Well, jobs has been the 230 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 1: basis for Trump's state of support for coal, but the 231 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: reality is that jobs in the coal sector began falling 232 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:22,199 Speaker 1: long before President Trump took office, and they today account 233 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 1: for a very small sector of the economy. Interestingly, Joe 234 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: Biden's platform is also very jobs oriented, and so to 235 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:35,160 Speaker 1: a certain extent, you have both the president and the 236 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 1: challenger basing their policies, their climate and energy policies on 237 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 1: job creation. But the Trump basis of jobs creation certainly 238 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 1: would have to be expanded beyond coal to have much 239 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 1: validity because of the fact that the coal industry is 240 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 1: a declining sector in the economy. I think an answer 241 00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 1: to your question, and you know, is this about jobs? 242 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:00,760 Speaker 1: Is this about climate? The answer is us to everything. 243 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 1: I think that that's the intention here. Um. I do 244 00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:07,320 Speaker 1: think one thing that's intriguing in the Biden plan that 245 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:10,560 Speaker 1: I do hope well, I think frankly, ultimately we'll have 246 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 1: to get addressed is that, you know, Biden's conception of 247 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 1: a job is a unionized job with union worker protections 248 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 1: and wages, And if we're honest that is that is 249 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:24,720 Speaker 1: not the case for many jobs in the clean energy 250 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 1: sector today. And so how you square that circle? I 251 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: think it's going to be one of the more interesting 252 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 1: challenges for a Biden administration if there is one yes, 253 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:36,480 Speaker 1: absolutely true, I would point out that jobs is by 254 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: far the most frequently used word in the Biden campaign, 255 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 1: but the second most frequently used words union. Jobs gets 256 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:47,880 Speaker 1: fifty three mentions in the In the Biden platform, union 257 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 1: gets thirty two mentions, and both of those words get 258 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 1: more mentions than clean energy, carbon or power. Okay, so 259 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 1: let's go into emissions, which isn't mentioned as often in 260 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: his platform, and let's talk about transportation related emissions, which 261 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 1: are the largest source of emissions in the United States 262 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 1: right now. So what does the future hold in the 263 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 1: transportation space? In the Trump era? We've seen a division 264 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 1: grow between the US and Europe certainly, and between the 265 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 1: between the US and China in the level of electric 266 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 1: vehicle penetration, and the US is going to continue to 267 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 1: lose ground to those two regions on the adoption should 268 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 1: Trump be reelected, because none of his policy initiatives are 269 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 1: intentionally aimed at promoting that particular sector. We have been 270 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 1: expect that China and Europe together are going to account 271 00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 1: for a combined of global EV sales. So you can 272 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:46,680 Speaker 1: see that the US as a minischool part of the 273 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: remain Even if the US were to have the majority 274 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 1: of the remainder, we still will be talking about a 275 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 1: less share. So really this is the current trajectory and 276 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 1: likely to stay to stay on pace. So the economics 277 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 1: aren't there yet for there to be wide range EV adoption. 278 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 1: How about charging stations? Are those rolling out charging stations 279 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 1: as a recipient of policy support have received zero support 280 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 1: in the Trump years and Biden would pivot to a 281 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:16,880 Speaker 1: great deal support both by leveraging federal R and D 282 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 1: but also by leveraging federal procurement of electric vehicles and 283 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 1: funding the deployment of charging stations to support them. So 284 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:29,000 Speaker 1: there's a pretty clear difference between the two candidates in 285 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 1: their view of the e V of the e V 286 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 1: role in the marketplace. The interesting wild card, as I 287 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 1: see it, is that US is on the verge of 288 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 1: introducing to the market electrically powered light trucks, which that's 289 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 1: a big part of our of our fleet vehicle fleet 290 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 1: over here in the US, and it remains a very 291 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 1: popular part of the market. So to the extent that 292 00:16:56,160 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 1: the US introduces electrically powered like pick up trucks and SUVs, 293 00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:05,199 Speaker 1: there does exist an opportunity for the US to do 294 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 1: a relatively rapid catch up or at least trying to 295 00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 1: close the gap between the EV share of the fleets 296 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:14,119 Speaker 1: here and in the rest of the world. If I 297 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 1: could add a small note of optimism if I can 298 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 1: about US and and evs, which is that you know, 299 00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:22,439 Speaker 1: we we are home to Tesla obviously UM, and we're 300 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 1: home to a number of other startups that are now 301 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 1: raising gobs of money to be electric carmakers and and 302 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 1: and certainly the Chinese as a staff notes, you know, 303 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 1: there's more more evs on the road over there, and 304 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:38,239 Speaker 1: there's more manufacturing what over there. But we we do 305 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 1: have the one and only truly global brand for electric 306 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: vehicles in Tesla, and it is UM and is proving 307 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 1: popular really where almost any part of the world where 308 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 1: you can get your hands on one. So you know, 309 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 1: I do think there's an opportunity for the US to 310 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:55,920 Speaker 1: to be a leader on the manufacturing of electric vehicles. 311 00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:58,359 Speaker 1: It won't be easy by any means, and it would 312 00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:02,399 Speaker 1: definitely help if would have policies in place that could 313 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:06,679 Speaker 1: make this a reliable demand market here domestically. But I 314 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 1: do think there is that that potential opportunity because as 315 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:13,120 Speaker 1: you guys both know, you know, buying a car, yes, 316 00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:16,160 Speaker 1: you do think about whether it's got a good does 317 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 1: it make sense economically, but there is a completely non 318 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 1: rational part of the sales process as well. They can 319 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:26,120 Speaker 1: drive that. You can drive people to want to buy things, 320 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 1: um just as they're cool or because they're really fun 321 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:32,159 Speaker 1: to drive. And it remains key in the US in 322 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: terms of the adoption of evs that fuel economy standards 323 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 1: for internal combustion vehicles be strict and to be additive 324 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:45,920 Speaker 1: over the course of years, and the Trump administration UM 325 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 1: has taken steps to in effect freeze the progress of 326 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 1: rising fuel economy standards in the States, and it also 327 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:56,159 Speaker 1: has moved to take away the ability of California to 328 00:18:56,200 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 1: set its own requirements. So regardless of individual sectors of 329 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 1: the eating marketplace, what is at present lacking and would 330 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:09,119 Speaker 1: continue to be absent in in the event of a 331 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 1: Trump reelection. Are fuel economy standards that that push the market, 332 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:18,880 Speaker 1: if you will, towards the acceptance of more fuel efficient 333 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 1: vehicles and zero emission vehicles such as these. So it 334 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 1: seems like there's a pretty stark difference depending upon the 335 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 1: outcome of the next election regarding what happens in the 336 00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 1: transportation sector. Let's talk about US emissions mix and started 337 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 1: part of the power sector actually, which has to do 338 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 1: with gas and oil. So oil and gas, what does 339 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: that look like in the future, because the US has 340 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:46,880 Speaker 1: sort of had a I think renaissance was the word 341 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 1: that in our discussions of leading up to today, Ethan 342 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 1: you were saying regarding natural gas and is now a 343 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 1: net exporter? Yeah, I mean so basically, you know, the 344 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 1: US had just reached the point where we were effectively 345 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:05,399 Speaker 1: almost a net energy exporter, uh. And we're you know, 346 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:09,320 Speaker 1: a net oil exporter. Uh. And we're ramping up gas exports. 347 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:11,480 Speaker 1: And then of course a long came this year, which 348 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:16,120 Speaker 1: is completely disrupted demand for petroleum products. But it is 349 00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 1: just kind of amazing the level of the surge that 350 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:24,200 Speaker 1: we saw a so called unconventional production of oil and gas. 351 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:28,040 Speaker 1: I think there are very big questions obviously about where 352 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:31,359 Speaker 1: we go from here. First, of course, there's the industry itself, 353 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,680 Speaker 1: which is now suddenly a lot of pain and had 354 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 1: been burning through cash, let's be clear, for quite some time, 355 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:42,199 Speaker 1: even before COVID nineteen arrived, but now all of a sudden, 356 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 1: with a lower oil price environment UM, oil and gas 357 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:49,360 Speaker 1: producers are definitely suffering from that. So that's the that's 358 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:52,679 Speaker 1: the backdrop that we have here. The look forward, and 359 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:55,440 Speaker 1: the piece that I'm sort of interested to see how 360 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:58,640 Speaker 1: it gets resolved is, as Steph mentioned earlier, at least 361 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:02,679 Speaker 1: on the power side, Biden is pledging to get us 362 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 1: to zero percent CEO two emissions from our power sector 363 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:12,119 Speaker 1: by well, you know, if about of our power last 364 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:15,440 Speaker 1: year came from gas, that's a lot of gas demand 365 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 1: that would in theory disappear. Uh. And then the question 366 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,400 Speaker 1: is can let gas be used in some other way? 367 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:23,639 Speaker 1: Is there enough of an export market on l n 368 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 1: G to make up for that, or there are other 369 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:29,359 Speaker 1: segments of the economy UM where gas can be used. 370 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 1: And we still we certainly have a number of homes, 371 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 1: particularly in New England for instance, that are using oil 372 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,679 Speaker 1: to heat their homes. Could gas be used there? But 373 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 1: practically speaking, if you were to basically evaporate what is 374 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 1: something I'm guessing about thirty or forty percent of total 375 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 1: gas demand in the US. By going to zero percent 376 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,880 Speaker 1: carbon in the power sector, that would have major implications. 377 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,640 Speaker 1: And so then the question is what is the Biden 378 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 1: position on fracking? What is its position on what does 379 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:03,960 Speaker 1: the campaign edition on doing fracking on federal lands doing 380 00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 1: it on private lands? I would say I don't have 381 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,439 Speaker 1: a complete clarity on that question at the moment. The 382 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,320 Speaker 1: campaign has set a couple of different things. The other day, 383 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,399 Speaker 1: there was an effort when he was in Pittsburgh to 384 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 1: make it make a point that that he's not against 385 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:22,159 Speaker 1: all fracking. And it's very worth noting that Pennsylvania is 386 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 1: a state that has benefited enormously for fracking, specifically for gas. Uh. 387 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 1: And so I think the politics on this one are 388 00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 1: are tricky and uh, you know, I don't think it's 389 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:36,920 Speaker 1: it's it's not at least entirely clear to me how 390 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:40,160 Speaker 1: we get to zero percent in our power sector without 391 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:42,960 Speaker 1: it affecting the gas sector. And I think there's some 392 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:46,640 Speaker 1: open questions very much on that at this point, Yeah, 393 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:48,520 Speaker 1: I would add that I think it's Biden has done 394 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:52,800 Speaker 1: himself himself no favors with his shifting positions on tracking, 395 00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,439 Speaker 1: and when he first declared his candidacy, he was in 396 00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:58,400 Speaker 1: favor of a blanket ban on the on the technology, 397 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:02,679 Speaker 1: then moved to call for a ban on fracking on 398 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,920 Speaker 1: federally least land only. As Ethan said, he recently told 399 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 1: the Pennsylvania television interviewer that quote fracking is not going 400 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,440 Speaker 1: to be on the shopping block to remove support for tracking, 401 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:18,960 Speaker 1: which would directly hit the economies of states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, 402 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,199 Speaker 1: and West Virginia, which may not be important in the 403 00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:24,520 Speaker 1: overall scheme of things, but do have quite a number 404 00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 1: of electoral votes among them. And which of those states 405 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 1: would be considered swing states at this point, Well, Pennsylvania 406 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 1: is certainly a swing state. West Virginia would not be 407 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,159 Speaker 1: considered a swing state. Now, how's a strange animal in 408 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,920 Speaker 1: that Historically speaking, no Republican has ever been elected president 409 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 1: in the modern era without carrying Ohio. So what that 410 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 1: means from a from a political standpoint is that, assuming 411 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 1: history is to repeat itself, as the Trump must win 412 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,720 Speaker 1: Ohio in order to win the presidency. But it's not 413 00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:54,920 Speaker 1: necessary for Biden to win Ohio to win the presidency. 414 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,879 Speaker 1: So we're thinking ahead to November when the election takes place, 415 00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,080 Speaker 1: in January when there's the inauguration. But how about other 416 00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 1: significant dates and things that are going to exist beyond 417 00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:08,199 Speaker 1: that the next president either will inherit or have the 418 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 1: ability to continue and take forward. Well, the answer to 419 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:16,440 Speaker 1: your question has to do with this rather distinctive function 420 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,359 Speaker 1: that the president enjoys in the American system, which is 421 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:23,600 Speaker 1: the ability to issue executive orders and to make very important, 422 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 1: very broad, very high impact decisions without the consent of Congress. 423 00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,879 Speaker 1: And as a result of that, we're facing now as 424 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:33,360 Speaker 1: a situation in which President Trump, during his term has 425 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:37,119 Speaker 1: taken a number of actions that affect the energy economy 426 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 1: that have been done with consultation with Congress, and therefore 427 00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 1: can continue to Can you to live on even should 428 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 1: Trump be turned out of office? Let me give you 429 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:49,280 Speaker 1: some examples, all done by executive fiat. Trump withdrew the 430 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 1: US from the Paris Climate Agreement. He vacated the Obama 431 00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 1: at Euro Clean Power Plan and replaced it with a 432 00:24:55,359 --> 00:25:00,000 Speaker 1: rule that is much more diluted with regard to its requirements. UH. 433 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:04,119 Speaker 1: He rapped off offshore oil and gas leasing. He approved 434 00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 1: some major oil pipeline projects bringing imports from Canada into 435 00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 1: the US. UH he reversed the requirement that oil and 436 00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:18,920 Speaker 1: gas companies monitor methane releases from their wells. He imposed 437 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 1: tariffs on solar cells and modules and inverters, all of 438 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 1: which are essential ingredients to solar project development, and all 439 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 1: of which and as a result raised he raised the 440 00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:34,200 Speaker 1: price of those projects. All of these things would stay 441 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:39,879 Speaker 1: in force should Trump be turned out, but because this 442 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,800 Speaker 1: is a double edged sword, they could be reversed quite 443 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,680 Speaker 1: easily should Biden decide to do so. So, really, what 444 00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:49,679 Speaker 1: we have is a situation here where the election, because 445 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,359 Speaker 1: of the power of executive orders and because of the 446 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:56,440 Speaker 1: differences in policy between these two candidates, really is an 447 00:25:56,440 --> 00:26:00,440 Speaker 1: important undertaking and commerce is more or less relive two 448 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,320 Speaker 1: second tier status. It's like, could just add on to that. 449 00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:06,080 Speaker 1: I really agree with Steph in the sense that there 450 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:08,280 Speaker 1: are and it's a really good question data that there 451 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:12,320 Speaker 1: are a lot of initiatives that basically the administration can 452 00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:15,920 Speaker 1: pursue unilaterally. I'm literally looking right now at a news 453 00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,240 Speaker 1: story that's just run on the Associated Press of sixty 454 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,960 Speaker 1: projects that the US Department of Interior has sent the 455 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,200 Speaker 1: note to the White House about and saying we need 456 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,000 Speaker 1: to fast track permitting of these, and it includes things 457 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:32,320 Speaker 1: like a five thousand well gas field of development in Wyoming, 458 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:37,400 Speaker 1: the Jordan Cove Liqui fied natural gas terminal in Oregon, uh, 459 00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:41,240 Speaker 1: and a natural gas pipeline that's planned for Virginia. So 460 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,320 Speaker 1: those are things that the administration can move quickly on. 461 00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:48,400 Speaker 1: I will know caveat that everything we've just said slightly 462 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:51,760 Speaker 1: and saying that, um, there are a lot of teas 463 00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:53,399 Speaker 1: that need to be crossed and eyes that need to 464 00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:58,920 Speaker 1: be dotted when you give permission to have a project 465 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:02,359 Speaker 1: go forward under what's called the Environmental Protection Act of 466 00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 1: the United States. And what that means is if you 467 00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,199 Speaker 1: don't do all the right steps, if you if you 468 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:11,159 Speaker 1: cut corners, then you're open to lawsuits. UH. And then 469 00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 1: a number of cases the Trump administration sort of had 470 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:18,879 Speaker 1: their hands slapped by courts and had various initiatives essentially 471 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:22,919 Speaker 1: stopped because they did not follow all the rules of procedure. 472 00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:25,520 Speaker 1: So while you can do a lot to try and 473 00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:27,440 Speaker 1: move a lot of things quickly, if you move too 474 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,359 Speaker 1: fast and you don't take the right steps, then ultimately 475 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,600 Speaker 1: your decisions may not get implemented. And then, of course, 476 00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:37,119 Speaker 1: as as Steph does note um, if by wins um 477 00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:40,160 Speaker 1: you know a number of these things, he can revisit 478 00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:43,600 Speaker 1: himself unilaterally. Um, though some will be harder to undo 479 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,280 Speaker 1: than others. To be clear, once you've made a regulatory 480 00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:49,560 Speaker 1: decision from an agency on something, it becomes that much 481 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:53,040 Speaker 1: harder to pull it back. Well, because in specific reference 482 00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 1: to the power sector, you know, these are pretty big 483 00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,440 Speaker 1: infrastructure projects and they take wild to get off the ground, 484 00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 1: and then they're with us for a very long time. 485 00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:01,960 Speaker 1: And what I'm hearing from you is you know that 486 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:05,320 Speaker 1: the there's only so much that someone can do in 487 00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,440 Speaker 1: a four year period because it may all be unwound 488 00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,440 Speaker 1: by the next president, which I think is not all. 489 00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:13,560 Speaker 1: I guess maybe that's a bit extreme, but things can 490 00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:15,719 Speaker 1: be unwound by the next president. Things are done by 491 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:19,400 Speaker 1: executive order, which to my understanding is not dissimilar from 492 00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:23,080 Speaker 1: the transition from Obama to Trump as well, where there 493 00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:25,119 Speaker 1: were a number of things that were able to be 494 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:27,880 Speaker 1: sort of be crossed off and refreshed for a four 495 00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:30,479 Speaker 1: year period. So My question really is to both of you, 496 00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:34,320 Speaker 1: regardless of who wins, how dramatic do you think the 497 00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:37,600 Speaker 1: impact is going to be, given that you're somewhat bound 498 00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 1: by a four year period. You're exactly correct that President 499 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:44,520 Speaker 1: Obama and his term took a number of executive actions that, 500 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,640 Speaker 1: of course succeeded his presidency and some of which remain 501 00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:52,120 Speaker 1: in force. The difference between that transition and the transition 502 00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,880 Speaker 1: that we're going to experience in the US here next 503 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:58,840 Speaker 1: year is that the US is now laboring under a 504 00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:02,920 Speaker 1: budget deficit that has never been higher in peacetime and 505 00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 1: has not been as high as it is now since 506 00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 1: World War Two. And the absence of financial or physical 507 00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:15,400 Speaker 1: flexibility is a burden that regardless of who is elected, 508 00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:17,640 Speaker 1: the president is going to have to deal with. The 509 00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:23,600 Speaker 1: spending ability and the willingness to legislate funding for any 510 00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:26,880 Speaker 1: number of programs is going to be impinged as a 511 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:29,640 Speaker 1: result of the extraordinary spending that the US has had 512 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,440 Speaker 1: to undertake as a result of the COVID virus. And 513 00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:35,600 Speaker 1: I would just agree with Steph and with your question data, 514 00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:38,080 Speaker 1: which is, you know, four years actually isn't that longer 515 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 1: period of time, but eight years kind of is and 516 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 1: so you know, on a number of these issues around 517 00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 1: writing regulations or permitting projects or things like that. Let's suppose, 518 00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:52,200 Speaker 1: you know, the Trump administration gets it wrong the first 519 00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 1: time in writing a regulation that is weaker than than 520 00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,320 Speaker 1: the one the Obama administration wrote. And let's suppose they 521 00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:03,520 Speaker 1: then the environmental groups taken to court and and essentially 522 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 1: pinning their ears back a little bit. And that's happened 523 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,600 Speaker 1: a number of times. What can then happen is that 524 00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,560 Speaker 1: Trump can their administration can come back and rewrite the 525 00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:15,120 Speaker 1: regulation again and make it slightly less weak, but have 526 00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:18,280 Speaker 1: a pass muster with the courts. So I frankly, I 527 00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:21,880 Speaker 1: frankly think that the second four years of Trump could 528 00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:25,400 Speaker 1: be very, very harmful from an environmental perspective, because the 529 00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:28,680 Speaker 1: one thing that I think those who are worried about 530 00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,680 Speaker 1: the environment could take some stock in in the first 531 00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:35,080 Speaker 1: four years of the Trump administration was to be really candid, 532 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,760 Speaker 1: they were pretty bad at doing certain parts of government. 533 00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,600 Speaker 1: They just to my point earlier about dotting the eyes 534 00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:44,680 Speaker 1: and crossing the teas, they often just didn't do things 535 00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,440 Speaker 1: the right way in terms of writing the regulations. In 536 00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,360 Speaker 1: a number of cases, they put people in some of 537 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,880 Speaker 1: these agencies who didn't really know what they were doing, 538 00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:55,080 Speaker 1: but they're getting smarter. And the guys who had been 539 00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:57,120 Speaker 1: like number two or three at some of the agencies 540 00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:00,320 Speaker 1: and were lobbyists and really understand how things work moved 541 00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:02,480 Speaker 1: up in the world, and they're getting better at writing 542 00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:07,800 Speaker 1: regulations that will basically withstand court challenges. Uh. And so 543 00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:09,960 Speaker 1: I do think that, you know, if you get four 544 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,360 Speaker 1: more years of Trump, a lot of the things that 545 00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:15,240 Speaker 1: they've they've sort of have gotten halfway towards putting in 546 00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 1: place over the last four years, they'll they'll they'll get 547 00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:20,400 Speaker 1: the rest of the way they are. So there's one 548 00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:22,760 Speaker 1: thing that we haven't addressed, and I think there's been 549 00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 1: plenty of buzz over the past year on Capitol Hill 550 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:31,080 Speaker 1: about the Green New Deal. Did Biden's Energy and Climate 551 00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:33,760 Speaker 1: plan address that or has that been something that he 552 00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:37,520 Speaker 1: has not made a forward statement about? Biden pointed, Lee 553 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:41,640 Speaker 1: did not reference the Green New Deal in his Energy 554 00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:44,360 Speaker 1: and Climate platform, and to the rest of my knowledge, 555 00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:47,000 Speaker 1: he is avoided referring to it, and he'st by its 556 00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:49,960 Speaker 1: formal name in any of his public appearances so far. 557 00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,760 Speaker 1: That's right. I would say he's sort of for lack 558 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,160 Speaker 1: of a better term, finessed it. The one thing I 559 00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:58,360 Speaker 1: would say is that he has certainly, I think, incorporated 560 00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,520 Speaker 1: some of the ambitious ideas that in the Green New Deal. However, 561 00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:04,600 Speaker 1: as part of the process of coming up with his 562 00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:10,200 Speaker 1: current official climate and energy policy, there was a task 563 00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:13,720 Speaker 1: force that was put together that was basically Biden people 564 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:17,120 Speaker 1: and people from the Bernie Sanders campaign, and as part 565 00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 1: of the Bernie Sanders campaign were some of the biggest 566 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:24,720 Speaker 1: champions of the Green New Deal, including Alexandria Occasio Cortez, 567 00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:29,760 Speaker 1: the freshman Congress congresswoman from from Queens, New York. And 568 00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:33,000 Speaker 1: so that process did solicit a lot of their ideas 569 00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:35,560 Speaker 1: um and I definitely think a bunch of those are 570 00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,120 Speaker 1: in the Biden plan. But but Staff's exactly right, it 571 00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:40,960 Speaker 1: is not labeled as a Green New Deal, and we 572 00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,760 Speaker 1: had that. Part of the problem with the Green New Deal, 573 00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:46,600 Speaker 1: or He's saying its name for Biden is that he 574 00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 1: has alligned himself so closely with organized labor, and significant 575 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,480 Speaker 1: share of organized organized labor has concerns about the Green 576 00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:58,600 Speaker 1: New Deal because of its tremendously disruptive force over existing 577 00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:03,000 Speaker 1: energy industries and jobs. Some of which are unionized, but 578 00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:07,960 Speaker 1: many of which are relatively high paying and for some 579 00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 1: some long time security. So Biden is is being honest 580 00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:17,880 Speaker 1: to his constituency in the sense that he is avoiding 581 00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:21,440 Speaker 1: directly referring to the Green New Deal as a sort 582 00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:25,160 Speaker 1: of uh negative dog whistle, if you will, to his 583 00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:28,880 Speaker 1: union supporters that he is aware of their concerns. Well, so, 584 00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:30,640 Speaker 1: I think I speak for all of us when I 585 00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:32,920 Speaker 1: say that, I think we're all going to be watching 586 00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:36,000 Speaker 1: the outcome in November, and it will be very interesting 587 00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:42,160 Speaker 1: to see what happens across these different sectors January and beyond. 588 00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:45,320 Speaker 1: Ethan Stephen, thank you very much for joining us today. 589 00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:55,840 Speaker 1: Thanks it's fun. Thanks a lot. Today's episode of Switched 590 00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,360 Speaker 1: On was edited by Rex Warner of Great Stolk Media. 591 00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,920 Speaker 1: BLOOMBERGINIAF is a service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP and 592 00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:04,800 Speaker 1: its affiliates. This recording does not constitute, nor it should 593 00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:08,200 Speaker 1: it be construed, as investment advice, investment recommendations, or a 594 00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:11,480 Speaker 1: recommendation as to an investment or other strategy. Bloombergin e 595 00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:14,279 Speaker 1: F should not be considered as information sufficient on which 596 00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,719 Speaker 1: to base an investment decision. 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