WEBVTT - When Gold Loses Its Shine

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to the Meryon Talks Money News round Up, where

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<v Speaker 2>we talk about the biggest moves in the markets this

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<v Speaker 2>week and what's driving them. I'm joined Stebic, senior editor

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<v Speaker 2>at Bloomberg and author of the multi award winning Money

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<v Speaker 2>This the newsletter, enjoining me as usual in Mern's absence

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<v Speaker 2>as friend of the show, Marcus Ashworth. Marcus is a

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg opinion columnist with a deep expertise. It says here

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<v Speaker 2>in European markets, but I would spend that to bond

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<v Speaker 2>markets and markets generally, and yes, as would be all

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<v Speaker 2>always a regular contributor, so yeah, no, nice to have

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<v Speaker 2>you back, Marcus.

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<v Speaker 1>My pleasure that.

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<v Speaker 2>It's siically been quite a hectic week this week already

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<v Speaker 2>and it's only Thursday morning.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, we do have obviously shot moves in things that

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<v Speaker 1>you've been going anything, but app finally we realize that

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<v Speaker 1>they can actually also stop going up and even go

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<v Speaker 1>down a bit.

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<v Speaker 2>I SA this was interesting because just before when they

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<v Speaker 2>you're the Piso last week, basically seeing that they can

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<v Speaker 2>the debate.

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<v Speaker 1>In the trade I think was the exact words.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you said the abasement tree was basically made up? Story?

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<v Speaker 2>Is that reasonable?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I mean there's obviously there's some foundation. Like anything,

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<v Speaker 1>there's always some some semblance of truth in the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that governments do need to learn how to cut spending

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<v Speaker 1>or certainly reduce the increase in it. But to try

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<v Speaker 1>and extrapolate that across that the dollar is over and

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<v Speaker 1>that the only thing you can have is crypto and

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<v Speaker 1>indeed gold I thought was just a little bit too

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<v Speaker 1>much for me. This was a great trade, which is

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<v Speaker 1>everyone since seem to think it was a momentum trade

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<v Speaker 1>and would only ever continue going up. And we just

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<v Speaker 1>found that limit of you know, it's still doing extremely

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<v Speaker 1>well and that will continue to do very well, but

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<v Speaker 1>just need a bit of a health correction.

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<v Speaker 2>So yeah, I bet, yeah, breather at least. Yeah, it

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<v Speaker 2>has been looking quite toppy.

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<v Speaker 1>Right above, you know. So it's gone up so far

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<v Speaker 1>so fast that it literally and there isn't any real reason,

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<v Speaker 1>I think, for it to be quite so sustainable. But

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<v Speaker 1>you know, there we go nice to see things like

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<v Speaker 1>silver and palladium and platinum and mine all the mining

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<v Speaker 1>stops finally catch up. But fine enough, that's when that happens.

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<v Speaker 1>You know that, but I certainly think gold has got

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<v Speaker 1>some validity. And the thing is people don't really sell gold,

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<v Speaker 1>that really want the whole gold. They keep on holding it.

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<v Speaker 1>Central banks and individuals alike. Having said that, there was

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<v Speaker 1>clearly some far too much leverage and reto momentum going

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<v Speaker 1>in it, and that just needed a bit of a

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<v Speaker 1>health check. So I'm probably healthier for it.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And I'll be interesting to see how that continues,

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<v Speaker 2>because well, the other thing that I don't know what

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<v Speaker 2>I mean again, I'm sure you've noticed this, but maybe

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<v Speaker 2>in the last month or so, there's been a real

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<v Speaker 2>ton in the boind market. It's going to go on

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<v Speaker 2>from being, you know whatever, higher yields to a sort

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<v Speaker 2>of sense that maybe yields are high enough now that

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<v Speaker 2>attractive plate inflation is coming down.

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<v Speaker 1>You look at ten year gilts, they're fifty basic points

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<v Speaker 1>off the highs. You look at two year gilts, they're

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<v Speaker 1>ninety basis points off. But this is driven principally by J.

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<v Speaker 1>Powell perhaps realizing that there is actually some reason to

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<v Speaker 1>lean on the employment side of his mandate and can

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<v Speaker 1>cut rates. I expect them on Wednesday to do two things,

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<v Speaker 1>One which is lower again by twenty five base points

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<v Speaker 1>and more importantly stop all forms of constituted tight This

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<v Speaker 1>is the Federals just to be a part of me

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<v Speaker 1>to make that clear, which and I think they will

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<v Speaker 1>do the same again and cutting in December. There's a

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<v Speaker 1>risk they might do fifty base points on these point.

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<v Speaker 1>But let's say they're cut by fifty base points by

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<v Speaker 1>the end of this year. That's going to put a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of pressure on Andrew Bailey and co. Who are

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<v Speaker 1>would be then fifty base points above the FED and

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<v Speaker 1>SEED not just doing constantive tightning, but active and passive.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think there will be some pressure on them

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<v Speaker 1>to do something about that. And that's really reflected now

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<v Speaker 1>and two or three bits of data, principally labor market

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<v Speaker 1>data is showing that pay expectations and pay pay levels

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<v Speaker 1>are off siteing to come down, and principally the private sector.

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<v Speaker 1>They don't think it's keeping up ironically public sector bonuses,

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<v Speaker 1>but let's not go into that for now. The point

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<v Speaker 1>is is that what they need to see and they

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<v Speaker 1>do want to see is private sector always levels down

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<v Speaker 1>to around three three and a half yea, which is

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<v Speaker 1>starting to happen and quite clearly so, and then we

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<v Speaker 1>had CPI which was really look at three point eight percent.

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<v Speaker 1>People I think, oh, what's a big fuss because it

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<v Speaker 1>was three percent the previous month. But the key thing

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<v Speaker 1>is we expect to go to four, possibly even higher,

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<v Speaker 1>and that was going to be probably a peak. The

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<v Speaker 1>fact that we've seen probably quite clear signs a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit brave here that we've seen the top of inflation

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<v Speaker 1>in the UK. That means in October we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>see a bunch of stuff coming off, particularly on energy prices.

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<v Speaker 1>That just the way the basis works, So we truly

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<v Speaker 1>get zero point two off next month anyway, that's just

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<v Speaker 1>the energy effect. It's quite possible in the budget of

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<v Speaker 1>November twenty sixth that rage Relie finally learns a lesson

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<v Speaker 1>that she needs to get out of the way of

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<v Speaker 1>the Bank of England and stop doing stuff which pushes

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<v Speaker 1>inflation up. Eg. Minimum wage rises, civil service pay arises,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course national insurance on employers, which has really

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<v Speaker 1>contributed to a lot of food inflation because it's the

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<v Speaker 1>cost of delivery of food, not the underlying commodity stuff

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<v Speaker 1>that's been driving it up. That's rippled throughout the economy.

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<v Speaker 1>But the point is that she can get. Perhaps one

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<v Speaker 1>of latest things maybe make mister millerband happy, is that

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<v Speaker 1>they reduce the the AT level on energy five percent

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<v Speaker 1>down a zero. It's a complete con and we're all

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<v Speaker 1>just being tricked by it, but it will lower inflation

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<v Speaker 1>quite noticeably, which means we should be down to below

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<v Speaker 1>three percent into the two and a halfs by the

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<v Speaker 1>early part of next year. Could mean the bank could

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<v Speaker 1>cut as early as decemah one bank is calling for

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<v Speaker 1>November bold but in order too now starting the call

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<v Speaker 1>for December, and I think certainly by February they like

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<v Speaker 1>doing on their quarterly things. I don't think they'll move

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<v Speaker 1>in November their quarterly meeting, but they will certainly tea

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<v Speaker 1>things possibly in December for a cut in February.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean the tricky thing is, I mean, I think

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<v Speaker 2>that's a really good point for Rachel Reeves and she's

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<v Speaker 2>going to want to do what she can to avoid

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<v Speaker 2>the annual April bumping inflation, which is basically yeah. I

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<v Speaker 2>mean Simon for angel over at Pine has been making

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<v Speaker 2>this point for a while. The UK, well, the UK

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<v Speaker 2>standout the outlier status is basically all based on that

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<v Speaker 2>indexation moment in every April where the kind of places

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<v Speaker 2>go up and then that kind of represent for the

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<v Speaker 2>days that the year.

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<v Speaker 1>Really did this year, and that's that's going to take

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<v Speaker 1>a while of filter through. But we do pay the

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<v Speaker 1>banking and there's lots of them to work and see

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<v Speaker 1>through these things. So yes, that they know everyone says,

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<v Speaker 1>oh they can't, they can't cut because inflation is going

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<v Speaker 1>well in the US, they can And I think the

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<v Speaker 1>US leads, and I think banking will follow. I won't

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<v Speaker 1>want to leave too much for gaps, so I expect

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<v Speaker 1>and hope that some of the dats come through, which

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<v Speaker 1>is actually quite worrying on the economy on that side.

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<v Speaker 1>But certainly that inflation is probably we've seen the worst

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<v Speaker 1>of it.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and maybe again, it'll be interesting to see what

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<v Speaker 2>Rachel Reevesen does because presumably that will also rule out

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<v Speaker 2>or rather focus on inflation, will rule out some of

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<v Speaker 2>the things that have been talked about, like equalizing VAT

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<v Speaker 2>up the way. She's not going to put VAT up

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<v Speaker 2>on anything because that would push prices higher.

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<v Speaker 1>Presumably Parrington's stare when you mentioned things like this, I

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<v Speaker 1>certainly hope not.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, you don't give any ideas. Okay, let's let's partner

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<v Speaker 2>that I mean, and the other big thing this week,

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<v Speaker 2>which I feel this always goes slightly under reported because

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<v Speaker 2>you know what I mean, Japan is the world's fatal

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<v Speaker 2>argest economy still and kind of like the one of

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<v Speaker 2>the most important developed markets. But it just got his

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<v Speaker 2>new prime minister, who is so seen as an ear

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<v Speaker 2>to chins well be yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think that's slightly over said because she

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't have anything like the freedom that he did the

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<v Speaker 1>verse obviously twice he was Prime minister. But I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>and the three arrows of the ABE reform were never

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<v Speaker 1>really fired very well, certainly the last and in the

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<v Speaker 1>sense of whole overall reform of but there are definitely

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<v Speaker 1>in the Turkey stock exchange in particular, I've done some

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<v Speaker 1>really rather rather impressive things, and that I think is

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<v Speaker 1>it's still I mean, you know, I've long had Japanese

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<v Speaker 1>stocks that have lived there, and you know, injying Japanese

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<v Speaker 1>who's in convertible bonds for many years. I definitely, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>still believe and I think there is a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>reform to come through and that stock market will continue

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<v Speaker 1>probably to rise better than most, so I don't I

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<v Speaker 1>still believe in it. I just don't think necessarily we

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<v Speaker 1>should expect too much. This is Japan, after all, and

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<v Speaker 1>she's not going to be allowed to do too much.

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<v Speaker 1>But certainly she's going to talk talk, and that's at

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<v Speaker 1>least optimistic. And I think that the mank Japan will

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<v Speaker 1>probably raise it in straights at some point, but they're

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<v Speaker 1>not in a rush. Absolutely not the right because I

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<v Speaker 1>still don't think they feel rightly so that the whole

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<v Speaker 1>deflation real aspect of many decades has gone away from

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<v Speaker 1>Japan and it can quite easily reassert So in that

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<v Speaker 1>sense we will get slightly higher rates stadly going to

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<v Speaker 1>get high on you is probably over time, but this

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<v Speaker 1>is all normalization, ever so slowly taking ages, but it should,

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<v Speaker 1>I hope, continue to see some economic strength and indeed

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<v Speaker 1>have reflected in the stock market Japan.

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<v Speaker 2>Yea thought it's on in because obviously the neck and

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<v Speaker 2>the topics have both cartes. Be any thoughts from the

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<v Speaker 2>yen because obviously we're tom primali uki in vestas here,

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<v Speaker 2>so you're buying in poones. A lot of your kind

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<v Speaker 2>of gains are being kind of dented at least by

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<v Speaker 2>this week.

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<v Speaker 1>You can't hand it obviously. But the point here is, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>then it's a tricky what record. It could go either

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<v Speaker 1>way really quite very quickly, and everyone's aware of that.

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<v Speaker 1>At the moment. It's sort of held quite sort of

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<v Speaker 1>carefully versus the dollars. Certainly, I don't think sterning is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be desper well the next two or three

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<v Speaker 1>months because outline and well, yeah in straights and as

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<v Speaker 1>to the economy is it's starting to turn it a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit as well. But in the end terms, look

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<v Speaker 1>as far as I as I see, I think, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the end could and should weaken. But you know, it

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<v Speaker 1>really does have one of those things. When it trends,

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<v Speaker 1>it trends very quickly, and the rest of the time

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<v Speaker 1>that they do try to keep it boxed in. And

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<v Speaker 1>I suspect the bank pan will be very careful to

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<v Speaker 1>do as much as they can, and then the Minister

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<v Speaker 1>find us as well to keep it that way.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh yeah, I suppose that one phase three is a

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<v Speaker 2>dollar that's quite I mean what I means, who much

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<v Speaker 2>week I can it comfortably get before they start to

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<v Speaker 2>what are you about it?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, they're worried about all the time so it can

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<v Speaker 1>you know, certainly can get down through on six and

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<v Speaker 1>all that sort stuff. And I just don't know, It's

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<v Speaker 1>honest answer, I really don't know it can way and

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<v Speaker 1>anyone tells you they do.

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<v Speaker 2>Know.

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<v Speaker 1>Again, I think it's probably lots of bad things can happen,

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<v Speaker 1>so hege half, Yeah, well that's not bad way of

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<v Speaker 1>looking at actually exactly. I mean, I think you know,

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<v Speaker 1>there's certainly there's there's some some optimistly And one thing

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<v Speaker 1>I would note is that if you're thinking the US

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<v Speaker 1>dot market is both topping, indeed that domestic US moneys

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<v Speaker 1>will look at overseas, Japan is a very keen and

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<v Speaker 1>obvious place for company European bank stocks, a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>Japanese both tech and other sides that they're they're they're

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<v Speaker 1>hedge funds, are very own funds that are very familiar

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<v Speaker 1>with investing Japan over the years. It's a natural first

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<v Speaker 1>place for them to go. And I think you're already

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<v Speaker 1>seeing that a lot of money from me out of

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<v Speaker 1>the States, where would it go, It would go to Japan,

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<v Speaker 1>probably one of the top priorities.

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<v Speaker 2>Great, Thanks very much, Marcus, seeing your time. As always,

0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:39.560
<v Speaker 2>thank you for listening to this week's Medelm talks about

0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:41.760
<v Speaker 2>any debrief. If you like a show, rate review, and

0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:45.000
<v Speaker 2>subscribe whatever, you listen to podcasts and keep saying questions

0:11:45.080 --> 0:11:47.600
<v Speaker 2>of comments to Men and Money at Bloomberg dot net

0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:50.040
<v Speaker 2>and you can also follow me and Marcus or x

0:11:50.200 --> 0:11:54.520
<v Speaker 2>I'm joined Underscore STEPIC and Marcus is at Marcus Ashworth.

0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:57.520
<v Speaker 2>This episode was hosted by Me Joined STEPIC that was

0:11:57.559 --> 0:11:59.760
<v Speaker 2>produced by Moses and and Summer Sadi