WEBVTT - Mike Lyons Joined A&G

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<v Speaker 1>Hello there from Avilius. Lovely morning here in Lithuania. And

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<v Speaker 1>we should note there are Ukrainian flags everywhere in this city,

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<v Speaker 1>a city that has completely turned out and show solidarity

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<v Speaker 1>with the war effort, the resistance against Russia. Of course,

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<v Speaker 1>here in a former Soviet state in the Baltics.

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<v Speaker 2>One.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'm standing in George W. Bush Plaza, named after

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<v Speaker 1>the former president because he gave a speech here in

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and two in which he urged Lithuania to

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<v Speaker 1>be admitted to NATO. And NATO transformed then and it

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<v Speaker 1>has done so again now.

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<v Speaker 3>So goes on to make the point that he is

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<v Speaker 3>about three miles from the Belarusian border, like one hundred

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<v Speaker 3>miles from Russia, right next to Ukraine. All the world

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<v Speaker 3>leaders there are within striking distance of a war. I

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<v Speaker 3>guess that's not a concern.

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<v Speaker 2>Apparently not that would absolutely usher US into World War three.

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<v Speaker 3>Sure, respect, Sure, but it was seen as a big

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<v Speaker 3>deal when various leaders were going to Kiev. I just

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<v Speaker 3>I was surprised they're all gathering right there in the corner.

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<v Speaker 2>So many things to discuss with Mike Allions, who served

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<v Speaker 2>the United States military and a variety of capacities in

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<v Speaker 2>a variety of places now respected military analysts for CNN,

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<v Speaker 2>among others. Mike, how are you, sir.

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<v Speaker 4>Hey, good morning guys. Great to be back with you.

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<v Speaker 2>I've been following your Twitter feed and we know your

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<v Speaker 2>neck of the woods has been affected by the horrendous

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<v Speaker 2>rainfalls in the northeast. How's everybody doing.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, West Point underwater on the town outside Highland Falls.

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<v Speaker 4>The same roads are out. Actually I can't get up

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<v Speaker 4>there right now. There's no way nine W. The main

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<v Speaker 4>artery into the academy is shut down, both from the

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<v Speaker 4>north side and the south side the town. So it's

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<v Speaker 4>pretty devastating. Hopefully the Army Corp of Engineers is moving

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<v Speaker 4>quickly to try to restore services there. Out of the

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<v Speaker 4>building I work in is un habitable right now. It

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<v Speaker 4>was flooded in the floor, so you got mold. All

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<v Speaker 4>kinds of things are going to happen. So yeah, once

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<v Speaker 4>in a thousand year storm, they're saying it was.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, speaking of powerful forces, mother nature is unmatched. Let's

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<v Speaker 2>talk about the situation in Ukraine. We talked a little

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<v Speaker 2>bit about your opinion on cluster munitions yesterday. We know

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<v Speaker 2>you're in favor of Ukraine using them.

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<v Speaker 4>Why Yeah, First of all, let's set the law of

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<v Speaker 4>land warfare dictate, and that should be the litmus test

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<v Speaker 4>for this right. I mean, the legality of the situation.

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<v Speaker 4>Number one, it's a military necessity. Right now, Ukraine is

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<v Speaker 4>trying to do a counter offensive without air superiority, which

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<v Speaker 4>is foolhardy in some ways to begin with. And you

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<v Speaker 4>can even say it's not even a counter offensive, it's

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<v Speaker 4>just trying to figure out some probing operations anyway. At

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<v Speaker 4>the bottom line is they're running out of ammunition, so

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<v Speaker 4>they need more ammunition. We've knew this eight months ago

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<v Speaker 4>that eventually they would run out of ammunition because we

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<v Speaker 4>can't resupply them at the pace that they're using it.

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<v Speaker 4>We don't have enough of material on our side, and

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<v Speaker 4>we don't have enough reserves. And that that was the

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<v Speaker 4>no known that they were going to run out of animals.

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<v Speaker 4>So that's number one as a necessity to use these rounds.

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<v Speaker 4>Number two, proportionality. They are proportional in that Russia's use

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<v Speaker 4>them already. They've used them on civilian targets, they've used

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<v Speaker 4>them on things they shouldn't be But this is not

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<v Speaker 4>going to be a game changer, it's not going to

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<v Speaker 4>allow them a tremendous advantage, and they're going to use

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<v Speaker 4>them in a way. On the third thing, civilian or

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<v Speaker 4>military targets only, there's going to be a distinction between

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<v Speaker 4>combatants and non combatants. And so again, if you use

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<v Speaker 4>those three tests of the law of land warfare, you

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<v Speaker 4>know Russia has failed all three. Russia, you know, uses

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<v Speaker 4>them without necessity, has fired him on civilians, and doesn't

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<v Speaker 4>use them in proportionality. But Ukraine's going to do that.

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<v Speaker 4>I think legally they have a case that they they

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<v Speaker 4>should use them.

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<v Speaker 3>I think a lot of people were hoping the Ukrainians

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<v Speaker 3>would make some big advances once the Wagner Group had

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<v Speaker 3>to pull out, since that was Russia's best fighting for us.

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<v Speaker 3>Why does that not happen?

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<v Speaker 4>Right? So they're not twenty five thousand men as you

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<v Speaker 4>could see now too. I never thought they were going

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<v Speaker 4>to just disappear or be part of thee the Russian military.

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<v Speaker 4>Ladimir Putin is not giving up on the Wagner Group.

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<v Speaker 4>They're earners. They you know, Progosians an earner. He earns

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<v Speaker 4>it not only in Ukraine, he earns it in Africa

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<v Speaker 4>and rare earth minerals and all the things going on,

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<v Speaker 4>so that you know, we're surprised that you know, he's

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<v Speaker 4>meeting with Vladimir Putin. Progosion is no, we shouldn't be

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<v Speaker 4>surprised because he's not going to get rid of them.

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<v Speaker 4>The bottom line is Russia still out guns Ukraine artillery

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<v Speaker 4>almost ten to one on the front. They've had six

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<v Speaker 4>months to dig in, they have more AMMO, they can

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<v Speaker 4>throw an endless number of resources at this. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>it was a lot of hope that some counter offense

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<v Speaker 4>would be able to break through. The only place that

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<v Speaker 4>would really matter is in the south, and Russia blows

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<v Speaker 4>that last bridge, that last dam, that floods in the

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<v Speaker 4>entire area that definitely that narrow is now the avenues

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<v Speaker 4>of approach there. So they're going to march into these

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<v Speaker 4>kill zones. Now. They could wait another eight to ten

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<v Speaker 4>weeks when the native equipment arrives, because right now Ukraine

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<v Speaker 4>crew survivability is so important, and the equipment coming from

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<v Speaker 4>nat it would still not there yet will be there

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<v Speaker 4>and they'll have a little bit more of a chance.

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<v Speaker 4>But Russia still owns the air space, they still own

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of different things they need attack thems. They

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<v Speaker 4>need deep strike missile capability, they need air defense artillery

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<v Speaker 4>in order for them to have any success. To think

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<v Speaker 4>they're going to have success with this counter.

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<v Speaker 2>Offensive, anticipate in my next question, do we have any

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<v Speaker 2>idea of the timetable, Say Abrams tanks or F sixteen's

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<v Speaker 2>being brought.

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<v Speaker 4>To Bear September and the crews are still being trained

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<v Speaker 4>on them, and just because you know, what they'll do

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<v Speaker 4>is they'll allow the crews to survive more. The question

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<v Speaker 4>is whether they're still going to be able to fight

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<v Speaker 4>with them. They're they're complex systems. I mean, in some ways,

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<v Speaker 4>the catillacts what the gunner uses to hit targets with

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<v Speaker 4>is believe it or not, is designed after It's kind

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<v Speaker 4>a video game, and it's a lot of things to

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<v Speaker 4>kind of go into that from a simulation perspective, But

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<v Speaker 4>they are They are big, heavy pieces of equipment that

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<v Speaker 4>have long logistical supply chains to them. They get like,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, eight gallons to the mile that you know,

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<v Speaker 4>there's a lot of things that go in. It's that

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<v Speaker 4>it's not just these tanks showing up. It's going to

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<v Speaker 4>be the support that's gonna that's going to that's going

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<v Speaker 4>to keep them running. They're not getting F sixteen. They're

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<v Speaker 4>not seeing any kind of air superior already happening within

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<v Speaker 4>the next year or so. But but again, September would

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<v Speaker 4>they'd be lucky, And that's the time that I thought

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<v Speaker 4>they were going to go on this counter offensive. It

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<v Speaker 4>looks like they had to do this politically. They looked

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<v Speaker 4>like they had to do something right before the NATO

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<v Speaker 4>summit to show that they were doing it. But I'm

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<v Speaker 4>afraid that they're just throwing, unfortunately, Ukraine soldiers into that

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<v Speaker 4>meat grinder that Russia was doing eight months ago.

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<v Speaker 3>So the NATO leaders, as you mentioned, the NATO summit

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<v Speaker 3>are meeting there just a couple of miles from the

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<v Speaker 3>border there with you know, an opponent of NATO. How

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<v Speaker 3>big a deal is Sweden joining NATO?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, big in both of them and Finland because of

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<v Speaker 4>their neutrality for the past you know, seventy plus years,

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<v Speaker 4>and more than that, this has drawn NATO together, I think,

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<v Speaker 4>and NATO has never been as united as of right now.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm glad at least we're not allowing Ukraine into NATO.

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<v Speaker 4>I think we've talked about this before. I've never been

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<v Speaker 4>a fan of all these countries joining NATO. We can't

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<v Speaker 4>have the membership of NATO to be everybody but Russia,

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<v Speaker 4>because that's how the First World War started. But that's

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<v Speaker 4>where we're at right now, and I think that there'll

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<v Speaker 4>be a path if Ukraine continues to smash the Russian

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<v Speaker 4>military in place and hold its own, you know, four

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<v Speaker 4>or five years from now, they're going to have a

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<v Speaker 4>case that they're going to want to be in NATO.

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<v Speaker 4>Depends on what Russia looks like at that point. But

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<v Speaker 4>we also can't put in NATO a country that has

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<v Speaker 4>a border dispute with a country like Russia, because then

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<v Speaker 4>that triggers, you know, Article five, and next thing you know,

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<v Speaker 4>we're at World War three.

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<v Speaker 2>I was reading coverage in the Wall Street Journal about

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<v Speaker 2>that very question, and they were writing that the European

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<v Speaker 2>powers seem to be in favor of a fairly direct

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<v Speaker 2>paths to membership. For you, I heard Macrone in France said, Hey,

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<v Speaker 2>Ukraine's the best military in Europe right now, so why not.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, the one of the largest, I think after Turkey,

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<v Speaker 4>they're the third largest or whatever in Europe at this point.

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<v Speaker 4>And that's that's kind of at some point that we

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<v Speaker 4>have to watch that as well, to make sure that

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<v Speaker 4>they don't get too powerful. As again, as we just

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<v Speaker 4>look at history as the course, but you're going to

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<v Speaker 4>see other countries eventually start to puke over this, like Germany,

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<v Speaker 4>for example. Germany at the end of the day wants

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<v Speaker 4>everything to go back to February twenty twenty two, twenty

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<v Speaker 4>twenty two. They want this whole thing to be over.

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<v Speaker 4>They want to wake up like a bad dream, and

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<v Speaker 4>they want to get cheap you know oil again. They

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<v Speaker 4>don't They're not interested in making Russia angry. So I

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<v Speaker 4>think that people are talking a good game right now.

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<v Speaker 4>Germany has talked a good game in some ways. But

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<v Speaker 4>when push comes to shove, putting you know, Ukraine into

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<v Speaker 4>NATO is going to be a really, really big deal.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean that they should only agree to that if

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<v Speaker 4>we don't believe Russia is the threat that it currently

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<v Speaker 4>could be, and as long as they have nuclear weapons,

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<v Speaker 4>that might never be the case.

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<v Speaker 2>We're talking to military analysts, Mike Lyons, Mike, we can't

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<v Speaker 2>let you go without asking you about recruiting in the

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<v Speaker 2>United States military was just reading yet another report saying

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<v Speaker 2>that other than the Marines, everybody's falling miserably short, and

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<v Speaker 2>everybody's trying to understand why. Any thoughts on.

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<v Speaker 4>That, Yeah, I think I think it is two things.

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<v Speaker 4>I do think. Number one, that those of us in

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<v Speaker 4>the military are stopping no longer sending our children into

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<v Speaker 4>the military. I mean, my son's in the Navy, and

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<v Speaker 4>I'm glad he's serving, But I talked to more and

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<v Speaker 4>more of my peers that were in the military and

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<v Speaker 4>their children are not going. And it was very much

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<v Speaker 4>a family business. So that's there's no question that that's

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<v Speaker 4>impacting it. And the second thing is that the bar

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<v Speaker 4>remains very high to get into the military. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>if the the amount of information on an individual that

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<v Speaker 4>is in their country right now, for example, any kind

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<v Speaker 4>of drugs, any kind of drug use, any kind of

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<v Speaker 4>ADHD medication is disquality, So.

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<v Speaker 3>They're going to eliminate a lot of people.

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<v Speaker 4>There exactly, aside from overweight, aside from not being in shape.

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<v Speaker 4>There's all there's. So the poll is shrinking all the time.

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<v Speaker 4>I think it's a national security issue on some level.

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<v Speaker 4>But you know, and and it did something did happen,

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of those restrictions might go away, So they

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<v Speaker 4>still might go in and they did, they did drop

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<v Speaker 4>the restrictions during combat times. It's called a category four.

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<v Speaker 4>It's just a high risk recruiter that that the military

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<v Speaker 4>doesn't look let in. That's because the Army does a

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<v Speaker 4>pretty good job of knowing who is and isn't going

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<v Speaker 4>to succeed in the army, right because we've been recruiting

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<v Speaker 4>people for a hundre, you know, two hundred years, so

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<v Speaker 4>they know they have pretty good data as to what

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<v Speaker 4>a person is going to do inside the military. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>there it's different. It's a different world, but it's a

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<v Speaker 4>different life. But but you know, I'm still seeing I've

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<v Speaker 4>got a young man that I've been working with last year.

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<v Speaker 4>He just finished up basic training. He's on his way

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<v Speaker 4>to Airborne school and Special Force of school. So it's

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<v Speaker 4>still you know, the bar is pretty high still, which

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<v Speaker 4>I think is good. And I think our army today

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<v Speaker 4>is still better than it was twenty years ago, better

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<v Speaker 4>than it was when I was in. So you know,

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<v Speaker 4>full steam ahead.

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<v Speaker 2>There are a lot of good reasons for tradition and

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<v Speaker 2>not being you know, flitting from one trend to another,

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<v Speaker 2>and I'm glad the US military is that way. But

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<v Speaker 2>do you see signs that they are adapting to the

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<v Speaker 2>modern young person in the modern world.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, they have done that before. Back if you look

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<v Speaker 4>remember twenty years ago, there was this recruiting campaign called

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<v Speaker 4>the Army of One. And back then when we were

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<v Speaker 4>in we were all shaking our heads, going, well, the

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<v Speaker 4>army is the last thing. The army is is an

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<v Speaker 4>army of one. And that lasted about five minutes and

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<v Speaker 4>then everyone realized that that's just not a good message

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<v Speaker 4>because then they got into the army and realized it

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<v Speaker 4>was no army of one. But I think they do

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<v Speaker 4>have to stay current with social media and all the

0:11:03.520 --> 0:11:05.719
<v Speaker 4>forces that act on them, but they still have to

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<v Speaker 4>hold the line with regard to of the primary mission

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<v Speaker 4>of the US military is fighting to win the nation's wars. Period.

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<v Speaker 4>It's not to create diversity, it's not to force feed

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<v Speaker 4>social changes into the military, which is you can easily

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<v Speaker 4>do because of the government control over it. The bottom

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<v Speaker 4>line is the military exists to win the nation's wars,

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<v Speaker 4>and if we can't do that, then then we'll fall

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<v Speaker 4>short and we will let our country down.

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<v Speaker 2>Mike Lyons always pleasure. Thanks so much for the time, Mike, great,

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<v Speaker 2>thanks

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<v Speaker 4>For having me