1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 2: It's great to be back here on the Monday edition 7 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 2: on the early side. Here a Balance of Power on 8 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio Satellite radio Channel one twenty one. We're live 9 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:34,880 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Originals now, you know, as well as YouTube. 10 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,239 Speaker 2: Of course, you can always find us by searching Bloomberg 11 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 2: Business News Live. That goes for all of our shows 12 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:41,519 Speaker 2: from New York and Washington throughout the day. It is 13 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 2: one of the coolest things that we have going here 14 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 2: on YouTube. With Google earnings in mind later this week. 15 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 2: So here's the state of play on a cloudy Monday 16 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 2: in Washington. It's kind of quiet around here, to be honest, 17 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 2: even though lawmakers are still in town. This is it. 18 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 2: House and Senate are in session, and soon they'll all 19 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 2: be gone. This is it for the House this week. 20 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 2: The Senate's supposed to work through the end of the month. 21 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 2: Even though they're being threatened that they might stay here 22 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 2: in overtime to deal with some nominees, and the President 23 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 2: heads to Scotland on Friday. By the time that happens, 24 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 2: dog days a summer kick in here in Washington, right, 25 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 2: it's just us and the tourists, and I bet they'll 26 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 2: still be talking about Jeffrey Epstein. I haven't talked about 27 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 2: this at all on the air. I just didn't know 28 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 2: if it was really a Bloomberg story, and we were 29 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 2: kind of asking people should take this seriously, whether it 30 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 2: was tabloid. The president certainly has been taking it seriously, 31 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 2: and boy, what a situation over the weekend. Happy six months. 32 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 2: By the way, do you have a truth social account? 33 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 2: I just asked Nancy Cook this, or do you do 34 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 2: you look at the posts on the terminal because it 35 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 2: is one of many hundreds of inputs on the Bloomberg terminal, 36 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 2: and he was busy more than two dozen posts last night. 37 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 2: You go back earlier in the weekend. Wow, the president writes, 38 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 2: time flies Today is that six month anniversary of my 39 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 2: second term. Importantly, it's being held as one of the 40 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 2: most consequential periods of any president. In other words, he writes, 41 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 2: We got a lot of good and great things done, 42 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,519 Speaker 2: including ending numerous wars of countries not related to US 43 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 2: other than through trade and or in certain cases friendship. 44 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,799 Speaker 2: Six months, Donald Trump says, is not a long time 45 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 2: to have totally revived a major country. The posts veered 46 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:28,079 Speaker 2: into some dark and odd places over the course of 47 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 2: the weekend, culminating with the two dozen that went up 48 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:34,359 Speaker 2: on Sunday night, including a video of Barack Obama being 49 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 2: arrested in the Oval Office. The conventional wisdom here in 50 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 2: Washington today is that the president's trying to change the subject. 51 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:44,080 Speaker 2: But of course we turned to Nancy Cook at times 52 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:49,399 Speaker 2: like this Bloomberg Political correspondent, senior national political correspondent who 53 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,079 Speaker 2: covered the first Trump term the campaign, and now here 54 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 2: in two point Oh, it's great to see you, Nancy, 55 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 2: welcome back. We're overdue. If I posted, if you posted 56 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 2: all of that stuff over the weekend, wouldn't people be saying, 57 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 2: is Nancy all right? And so is the president all right? 58 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 2: What is generating all of this if not an effort 59 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:12,079 Speaker 2: to change the subject? 60 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 3: Well, I think that right. It's just really an effort 61 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:16,079 Speaker 3: to change the subject, And the White House has been 62 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:18,920 Speaker 3: looking to change the subject on the Jeffrey Epstein story 63 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 3: really for the last week and a half. And you 64 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 3: have to remember that this is a sort of slate 65 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 3: of conspiracy theories that President Trump you know, used during 66 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 3: the campaign. Oh, you know, people are covering up things 67 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 3: with Jeffrey Epstein. So he is someone who perpetuated this. 68 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 3: So did his FBI director Cash Patel. So this is 69 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 3: like one of the many conspiracy theories that animates the 70 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 3: MAGA base that helped him rise to power. But now 71 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 3: he you know, now there's a question about his own 72 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 3: relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. Is his name in the files? 73 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 3: Now he's really trying to redirect the attention, and there's 74 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 3: been a fracturing with the MAGA base on it. Who 75 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 3: wants to see you know, they want to see more. 76 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 3: But we've seen Trump really since Friday, go hard and 77 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 3: try to change the narrative. We saw the Office of 78 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 3: National Intelligence you know, release some documents related to Russia 79 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 3: Gate on Friday, which I was told, you know, by sources, 80 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 3: was an effort to change the narrative. We saw Trump, 81 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 3: you know, posting a bunch of things to truth social 82 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 3: He's really just doing what he usually does, which is 83 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 3: throwing a bunch of things at the wall and seeing 84 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:26,479 Speaker 3: what will stick to actually change the subject. 85 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:28,239 Speaker 2: Do you see the pictures that they're showing on YouTube 86 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 2: while we're talking of them together in the good old days, 87 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 2: the party picks and all that kind of stuff. It's 88 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 2: clearly not working. But it is a president and an 89 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:41,839 Speaker 2: individual who has changed the subject just by way of 90 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 2: blunt force. If he continues this, do we find a 91 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:47,720 Speaker 2: new shiny object. Maybe we get to August first, start 92 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 2: talking about trade deals again. 93 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 3: Well, I think that, you know, they're trying to talk 94 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 3: about the economy, or I think that another way he 95 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,480 Speaker 3: tried to change the subject last week was by you know, 96 00:04:56,560 --> 00:04:58,599 Speaker 3: some of his aids floating. He was going to fire 97 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 3: Jerome Power when and then in the in the at 98 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 3: the White House he said, oh, of course not, I'm 99 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 3: not going to do that. I mean, really, they're looking 100 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 3: for any chance they get. I'll be curious to see 101 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 3: how long this particular storyline has legs. I mean, it 102 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 3: doesn't seem to be ending. There's just you know, there's 103 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 3: the Wall Street Journal story about that letter that Trump 104 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 3: sent Jeffrey Epstein. The New York Times has done a 105 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:21,480 Speaker 3: series of stories like, I think that there's just going 106 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:24,039 Speaker 3: to be a drumbeat of stories about what's actually in 107 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 3: the files and what that relationship looks like. 108 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 2: Now that we're seeing the big front pages. Like you said, 109 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 2: he's suing the Wall Street Journal, or at least said 110 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:31,159 Speaker 2: he would. I don't know that that's been filed. He 111 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:33,839 Speaker 2: was going to sue Rupert Murdoch News Corp. Owns the 112 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal. Then The New York Times shows up 113 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 2: with a big dive on their relationship, how friendly they 114 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:42,720 Speaker 2: were and for how long you've been in this business. 115 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:44,479 Speaker 2: For a minute, when you see a scandal, if I 116 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:46,479 Speaker 2: can use that word, when you see a story like 117 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:51,359 Speaker 2: this reaching these proportions, what does that tell you is 118 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 2: coming next? Does it just keep burning? 119 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,160 Speaker 3: I think it's just going to keep burning. And it's funny, 120 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 3: you know again, like it's just it's ironic because he 121 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:04,039 Speaker 3: did use these conspiracy theories too rise to power. But 122 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:06,160 Speaker 3: now it's funny that his White House is saying, Oh, 123 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 3: we just want to talk about our policy, when you know, 124 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:10,559 Speaker 3: we just want to talk about immigration or the tax 125 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:13,599 Speaker 3: built like they're trying to pivot back one of the 126 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 3: additional ways they're trying to pivot back is to talk 127 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:16,799 Speaker 3: about the policy stuff. 128 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 2: My poll numbers, he writes, within the Republican Party and 129 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:23,039 Speaker 2: MAGA have gone up significantly since the Jeffrey Epstein hoax 130 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 2: was exposed by the radical left Democrats and just playing troublemakers. 131 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:29,600 Speaker 2: He writes in a separate post, they have hit ninety 132 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:32,560 Speaker 2: ninety two percent, ninety three percent, and ninety five percent 133 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 2: in various polls. Have you seen any poll showing an 134 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 2: approval rating in the nineties like that? 135 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:39,599 Speaker 3: No, I mean, I do think that he does have 136 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 3: a higher approval rating if you ask Republican voters than 137 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:45,280 Speaker 3: just sort of general voters, it is higher. I think 138 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:47,840 Speaker 3: it's more like in the seventies or eighties. But again 139 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:50,799 Speaker 3: that depends on the issue. But you know, his approval 140 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 3: rating is more of what a typical president would be. 141 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 2: At this point, he's threatening to block the stadium deal 142 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:02,039 Speaker 2: for the Washington Command, which was known for some time 143 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 2: as Washington's football team. Remember when that's what we call 144 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 2: it in public? The Washington Whatever's, he writes, should immediately 145 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 2: change their name back to its original name. He says, 146 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 2: there's a big clamoring for this. He went on to 147 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 2: write further in a separate post. My statement on the 148 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 2: Washington football team has totally blown up, but only in 149 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 2: a very positive way. When you see posts like this, 150 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 2: does this bring us back to the old whoever spoke 151 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 2: to him? Last line? Was he on the phone with 152 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 2: a friend that got him going on the football team. 153 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 2: How did this become the. 154 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 4: Story it could be? 155 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 3: You know, you have to one thing about covering Trump 156 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 3: for a long time, is he there's so much input 157 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 3: from him, and so he watches TV constantly, regardless of 158 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 3: what his aids will say, Oh he doesn't. You know, 159 00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 3: he always has a TV on. You know, he is 160 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 3: always sort of on social media checking it out. He 161 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 3: also is an avid reader of newspapers. You know, he 162 00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 3: really pays attention to what's in the New York Times, 163 00:07:58,120 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 3: what's in the New York Post, what's in the Wall 164 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 3: Street drone. So he just takes a lot of information. 165 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 3: And also he loves to get on the phone. You know, 166 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:06,760 Speaker 3: he loves to hit up friends. You know, I think 167 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 3: this term he's talking to a lot more sort of 168 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 3: tech and Silicon Valley people than New York business people. 169 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 3: But he just you know, old friends. So you never 170 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 3: know exactly where this information is coming from But that 171 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 3: could have come He might have seen an article in 172 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 3: the Washington Post and had a reaction to it and. 173 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 1: Put it on. 174 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 2: In fact, they have on land of this sure the stadium. 175 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:26,280 Speaker 2: Yet well, you know he's talking to Howard Lutnik a lot. 176 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 5: Ye. 177 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 2: This story in the New Yorker is something from Money Talks, 178 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:34,280 Speaker 2: a ten page profile. They're talking on the phone Nancy 179 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 2: every night. When after, by the way, Howard Lutnik gets 180 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:41,400 Speaker 2: into bed, they get on the phone together. He said. 181 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 2: They talk about real stuff like tariffs. They talk about nothing, 182 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:47,959 Speaker 2: which he described as quote sporting events. People you'd like 183 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,080 Speaker 2: to have dinner with. What was this guy like? Can 184 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 2: you believe what this guy did? And to your point, 185 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 2: what's the TV? 186 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:54,200 Speaker 5: Like? 187 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 2: I saw this on TV? What did you think of 188 00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,839 Speaker 2: what that guy said on TV? It really kind of 189 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 2: brings you this down to the the same guy who 190 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:05,320 Speaker 2: was meeting Elon Musk for ice cream in the White 191 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 2: House late at night. What is that side of Trump? 192 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:07,559 Speaker 5: Well? 193 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 3: Trump has like never been a great sleeper and so 194 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:12,560 Speaker 3: you know the answer. 195 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 6: I know. 196 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 3: And so for some reporting I did for a big 197 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 3: piece be did on his first one hundred days. You know, 198 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 3: I was told for instance, in the middle of the 199 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 3: night when he can't sleep, he started he has started 200 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 3: listening to podcasts. 201 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 2: How about that? 202 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 7: I know? 203 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 3: And so he's been listening to. 204 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 2: Podcast put the earbuds in I have. 205 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 3: I mean, I'm not there with him, but I was 206 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:30,679 Speaker 3: just told, you know, he's become. 207 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:33,040 Speaker 2: An avid podcast that fantastic. 208 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 3: Has been listening to historical podcasts, okay, And so that's 209 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 3: like another thing that's added to a social media diet. 210 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 3: But he's always been someone who doesn't need a ton 211 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:41,560 Speaker 3: of sleep, you know. He's always been someone you remember 212 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 3: from the first term who was like up tweeting at 213 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:45,560 Speaker 3: six a m. Yeah, this is his vibe. 214 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 2: But also someone who likes the cabits. Yes, he likes 215 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 2: to Hey are you in bed? I'm in bed. So 216 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 2: what you see on TV today, it's absolutely a great read. 217 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:59,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch 218 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:02,080 Speaker 1: us live we days at noon and five pm Eastern 219 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: on Apple, Cockley and Android Auto with the blue Berg 220 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 1: Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa 221 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 1: from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa. Play 222 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty live. 223 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:18,079 Speaker 2: From Washington with our eyes on a couple of stories today, 224 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 2: including one that is now just developing, with Fox News 225 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 2: reporting that there is a criminal referral for the chair 226 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 2: of the Federal Reserve, Representative Anna Paulina Luna, the Republican 227 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 2: from Florida, putting forth this paperwork accusing J. Powell of 228 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 2: lying in two specific instances in congressional testimony, lying under oath, 229 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 2: of course, talking about the renovations at the Federal Reserve 230 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 2: building that are underway right now. That has become a 231 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 2: bit of a controversy as the White House looks for 232 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 2: ways to close in when it comes to J. Powell. 233 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 2: The President of course frequently mentioning his desire to fire J. Powell. 234 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,480 Speaker 2: The grounds through which he may fire him on may 235 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 2: well include this, according to Anna Paulina Luna. But this 236 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 2: is also against the backdrop of a very chaotic time 237 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:08,120 Speaker 2: at the White House. A week from Friday is the 238 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 2: deadline for tariffs. August first. We're still waiting for a 239 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 2: number of trade deals to be announced, as we've heard 240 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 2: from the Treasury Secretary, of the Commerce Secretary, and the 241 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 2: President himself, and much of it as well, against the 242 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 2: backdrop of a scandal involving Jeffrey Epstein with more than 243 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 2: two dozen social media posts last evening by President Trump alone, 244 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 2: in which he was not only celebrating the six month 245 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 2: anniversary of his new term, but also putting forth videos, 246 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 2: for instance, of former President Barack Obama an AI video 247 00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:42,920 Speaker 2: of him being arrested in the Oval Office. We want 248 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:44,959 Speaker 2: to cut through the noise here for you and get 249 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:48,840 Speaker 2: to the actual news beyond the distractions, with the help 250 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 2: of Tyler Kendall, Bloomberg's Washington correspondent is on the north 251 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 2: lawn of the White House right now, Tyler, what's happening 252 00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:56,079 Speaker 2: in that building behind you today? 253 00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 7: Yeah? 254 00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 5: Hey, Joe, Well, it's hard to know where to start. 255 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 5: You did a really great outline there that there's a 256 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 5: lot vying for perhaps the attention economy, if we could 257 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 5: call it that. When it comes to where the White 258 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 5: House actually wants to focus. You mentioned the trade deals. 259 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 5: Of course, this Friday will mark that one week mark 260 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:15,839 Speaker 5: until August first, and at this point the White House 261 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 5: hasn't given us any indication that they're going to let 262 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 5: up on that date. Our eyes are really focused when 263 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:23,320 Speaker 5: it comes to the European Union, which has yet to 264 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 5: get this decisive breakthrough but it is our understanding that 265 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 5: EU officials are really trying to ramp up the pressure 266 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,320 Speaker 5: and work towards a deal because they have prepared some 267 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 5: retaliation to go into effect if they are unable to 268 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:38,960 Speaker 5: reach an end zone. When it comes to this negotiation, 269 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 5: they of course are facing a thirty percent tariff that 270 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 5: is higher than the fifty percent tariff, but still incredibly high, 271 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 5: and our reporting indicates that in these talks the US 272 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 5: is pushing for perhaps a baseline tariff higher than ten percent, 273 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:53,680 Speaker 5: which our understanding had been the floor. Now we're seeing 274 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:56,200 Speaker 5: reports that perhaps this could end up closer to that 275 00:12:56,280 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 5: fifteen percent range, and this would be in exchange. THEE 276 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 5: would accept perhaps this higher baseline tariff because they're trying 277 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 5: to get some sort of exemptions when it comes to 278 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:08,680 Speaker 5: those sector specific terriffs as you well know, enacted under 279 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:11,640 Speaker 5: Section two thirty two national security concerns on a totally 280 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,679 Speaker 5: separate legal basis track, but that would be some sort 281 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:17,320 Speaker 5: of quotas when it comes to steal an aluminum as 282 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 5: well as auto. So we really have seen this push 283 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 5: from the administration. They say they're still on track for 284 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:25,040 Speaker 5: a deal. We heard Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik, for example, 285 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 5: Joe over the weekend saying that he's optimistic that they 286 00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:29,839 Speaker 5: could reach one. But then the Treasury Secretary Scott Besson 287 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:33,199 Speaker 5: earlier this morning in an interview, did say that they 288 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 5: are on track, but he did allude to the fact 289 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 5: that this is a very difficult negotiation, but he added 290 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:39,959 Speaker 5: that it doesn't have to get ugly. 291 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,559 Speaker 2: Doe in his words, Yeah, interesting to see him out 292 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:45,720 Speaker 2: on TV this morning. What do we make about this 293 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 2: referral from Representative Anna Paulina Luna? If anything, Tyler I 294 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:52,680 Speaker 2: realized this isn't a White House story, but the president 295 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 2: has kind of oscillated between these threats to fire j 296 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 2: Powell and then recently saying he had no plans to 297 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 2: do that, remembering last summer he told bloomber Or he 298 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 2: wasn't going to fire the fed share. But when you 299 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:04,839 Speaker 2: hear a story like this, it makes you. 300 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 5: Wonder well, definitely, and one of my top questions to 301 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 5: the congresswoman would be whether or not she is working 302 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:12,720 Speaker 5: in tangent with the administration, because we really have seen 303 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 5: this targeted pressure campaign. There's two important points of context 304 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:18,200 Speaker 5: to this. One is that we actually were expecting this 305 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 5: the congresswoman had indicated last week that she likely was 306 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 5: going to do this. And second, what a criminal referral is. 307 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 7: It is an. 308 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 5: Official step here, she is asking the Department of Justice 309 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,480 Speaker 5: to look into alleged misconduct. But that does not mean 310 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 5: that the dj is actually going to launch an investigation. 311 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 5: And that's going to be very important here whether or 312 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 5: not this is just messaging or if we're actually going 313 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 5: to see something tangible come out of it. Now, we 314 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 5: do know that administration officials, including the head of the 315 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 5: Federal Housing Finance Agency, have called for other sorts of investigation. 316 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 5: Bill Poulti, the head of the agency, told Kiley and 317 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 5: Me last week on Balance of Power that he is 318 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 5: confident that Congress will look into this. Of course, this 319 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 5: would this has raised scrutiny or potential that perhaps the 320 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 5: MIS is laying the legal groundwork here to remove j Powell, 321 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 5: because as you well know, Joe, that is a very 322 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 5: very high legal bar in order to remove a FED official, 323 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 5: they would have to launch an investigation based on cause. 324 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 5: But it really does seem to be adding to that 325 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 5: growing list of criticism that this White House has for 326 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 5: the fedch Here, lastly, importantly, we should say that the 327 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,480 Speaker 5: FED has said that Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress has 328 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 5: only been truthful, and they have defended the renovation costs. 329 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 5: It's our understanding that there is an inspector General that 330 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 5: Powell has asked to look in to the renovations. 331 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 2: Really important, great reporting, Tyler, Thank you so much, Tyler Kendall, 332 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:37,200 Speaker 2: cutting to the chase the real news here. That's what 333 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 2: we try to distill every day on balance of power. 334 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 2: We'll let you know what the noise is, but we'll 335 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 2: also let you know what the policy is and the 336 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 2: news that might in fact drive some decisions around here. 337 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:51,840 Speaker 2: With Annapauline A. Luna adding to the noise. But again, yes, 338 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 2: a referral is not an official action against j. Powell. 339 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 2: We'll let you know if something more materializes in all 340 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 2: of this. There is some real action that's taking place 341 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 2: in Texas this week, and it's one of the most 342 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 2: important political stories that you might not have heard about. 343 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 2: A special legislative session in Texas with Republican lawmakers now 344 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 2: poised to redraw the state's congressional maps. It's taking place 345 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 2: over the course of the coming week with an effort 346 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 2: a goal here to create five new districts, five new 347 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 2: winnable seats, if you will, for Republican lawmakers. You might 348 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 2: have actually heard about this last week when President Trump 349 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 2: was asked about the effort in the White House driveway. 350 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 2: Let's listen. 351 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 8: Five. 352 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 9: I think we get five, and there could be some 353 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:41,560 Speaker 9: other states. We're going to get another three or four 354 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 9: or five. In addition, Texas would be the biggest one, 355 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 9: and that'll be fine. It's a very simple redrawing. We 356 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 9: pick up five seats, but we have a couple of 357 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 9: other states where we'll pick up seats. 358 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:52,360 Speaker 7: Also. 359 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 2: Let's see how Kyle Condick feels about this as he 360 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 2: looks ahead to the midterms, across the and to the horizon. 361 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 2: He's the managing editor of Sabado's Crystal Ball at the 362 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:08,640 Speaker 2: University of Virginia Center for Politics and author of Campaign 363 00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:12,360 Speaker 2: of Chaos. Kyle, it's great to have you back here 364 00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio, and congratulations on the book. 365 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:20,160 Speaker 2: I wonder your thoughts on this move, specifically in Texas, 366 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:21,879 Speaker 2: because there are some other states that we want to 367 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 2: talk about here. The idea of adding five new winnable seats, 368 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 2: Donald Trump said, could be enough for Republicans to maintain 369 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:33,200 Speaker 2: control of the House. What do you say, Yeah, look. 370 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,879 Speaker 9: I mean this happened twenty years ago. In Texas, the 371 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 9: circumstances are a little bit different, but there's no prohibition 372 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:41,960 Speaker 9: on mid decade redistricting in Texas. And so back in 373 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:44,959 Speaker 9: two thousand and three, after Republicans to control a state government, 374 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 9: they redrew the previous map, which was sort of a 375 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,080 Speaker 9: version of a there was a court drawn map, but 376 00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 9: it was kind of really a democratic jerrymander. This time 377 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:56,440 Speaker 9: Republicans in Texas would be modifying their own gerrymander from 378 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 9: earlier this decade that produced a twenty five to thirteen 379 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 9: Republican advantage in the congressional delegation. But following a twenty 380 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,200 Speaker 9: twenty four election and with the White House leaning on them, 381 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:09,159 Speaker 9: it seems possible that they can draw additional seats, and 382 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 9: I think there looks like they're going to try. And 383 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 9: then it's a question of what does the map look like, 384 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:15,919 Speaker 9: and what's the environment next year, and do they actually 385 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:18,479 Speaker 9: realize the gains that they'd be drawing for themselves on paper. 386 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 2: Well, Texas is our big example here, but when you 387 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 2: add a couple of other states, is this actually a 388 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:27,879 Speaker 2: strategy to maintain control of the House. 389 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 9: Yeah, looks like and I mean, Ohio, we already knew 390 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:32,359 Speaker 9: was going to have to draw a new map. So 391 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 9: how is a very convoluted redistricting system. And the map 392 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:38,680 Speaker 9: that's currently in place was only designed or was only 393 00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 9: allowed to be in effect for two election cycles twenty 394 00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 9: twenty two and twenty twenty four. Republicans are basically going 395 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:48,400 Speaker 9: to have more power over the process than they did 396 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 9: back in twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two. Ohio 397 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 9: has a ten to five Republican House delegation right now. 398 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:57,679 Speaker 9: It's possible that maybe the Republicans could get that up 399 00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:01,159 Speaker 9: to twelve or or even thirteen to two, And so 400 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 9: that's another state to watch. You know, it's possible that 401 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:07,359 Speaker 9: other states could try to reopen redistricting. Some Democrats are 402 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:09,919 Speaker 9: thinking about trying to do that, although it's harder in 403 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,199 Speaker 9: those states because a lot of the states where Democrats 404 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 9: have control of state government also has some sort of 405 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 9: restrictions on jerrymandering or an independent commission that draws the lines. 406 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:22,119 Speaker 9: You know, Texas doesn't have that, and so it's just 407 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 9: easy for Republicans just reopen it in Texas it's a 408 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:27,200 Speaker 9: lot harder in a state like California. 409 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 5: For instance. 410 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,960 Speaker 2: Let's talk about California, because Governor Gavin Newsom is always 411 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:36,080 Speaker 2: waiting in the wings here, Kyle, at a moment like this, 412 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:39,880 Speaker 2: he says California in fact, should try to counter states 413 00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:43,359 Speaker 2: like Texas by redrawing its own congressional districts. Listen to 414 00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:44,400 Speaker 2: what the governor said. 415 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:50,280 Speaker 7: When Donald Trump calls in to the Texas legislature along 416 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 7: the lines of the phone calls he made saying find 417 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 7: me some votes in Georgia and says, find me five 418 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:01,200 Speaker 7: more seats in Texas. They're playing by a different set 419 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:04,960 Speaker 7: of rules. They can't win by the traditional game, so 420 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 7: they want to change the game. We can act taller 421 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:11,360 Speaker 7: than now. We could sit on the sidelines talk about 422 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:15,240 Speaker 7: the way the world should be, or we can recognize 423 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:19,679 Speaker 7: the existential nature that is this moment. 424 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:22,920 Speaker 2: Let's not talk about the way the world should be. 425 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 2: Let's talk about the way it is. In twenty ten, 426 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:31,399 Speaker 2: voters in California approved a measure that put the job 427 00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 2: to your point of drawing California's congressional map into the 428 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:36,679 Speaker 2: hands of an independent commission. So what's Gavin news I'm 429 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:37,400 Speaker 2: talking about. 430 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:40,720 Speaker 9: Well, look, I mean, it looks like California is thinking 431 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 9: about trying to maybe go go back to the voters 432 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:46,000 Speaker 9: to ask them to grant an exception. You also could 433 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:48,760 Speaker 9: maybe make a reading of California law and say that, 434 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:50,360 Speaker 9: you know, at the start of the decade the maps 435 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:52,879 Speaker 9: are drawn by commission, but doesn't necessarily say anything about 436 00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,040 Speaker 9: the middle of the decade. Again, all this stuff would 437 00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,119 Speaker 9: end up and would end up in court if attempted. 438 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:01,200 Speaker 9: Republicans assert that even though Democrats you know that it's 439 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:04,639 Speaker 9: an independent commission in California, that is still a Democratic 440 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:06,879 Speaker 9: leaning map, And there may be some truth to that, 441 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 9: But I think it's also true that California could have 442 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:12,719 Speaker 9: and even more lopside a delegation than it already is. 443 00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:16,840 Speaker 9: It's a forty three to nine democratic right now, but 444 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:19,199 Speaker 9: you could you could potentially draw a map where the 445 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,639 Speaker 9: Democrats could get an extra you know, several number of 446 00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 9: seats out of California. But the thing is is there 447 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:26,879 Speaker 9: are many more hoops to jump through for Gavin Newsom 448 00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:29,800 Speaker 9: and Democrats in California than there are for Governor Greg 449 00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 9: Gabbott and Republicans in Texas. 450 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,880 Speaker 2: You just said something important, Kyle and that's court. That's 451 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:37,080 Speaker 2: where all this is going, right. 452 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,119 Speaker 9: Oh yeah, I would assume any you know, there's I mean, 453 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:43,480 Speaker 9: there's already an active lawsuit by Democrats and their allies 454 00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:46,439 Speaker 9: over the Texas map, and there surely will be again. 455 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,240 Speaker 9: But you know, these cases take forever to get to 456 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:51,440 Speaker 9: get sorted out. So even if there was some sort 457 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 9: of you know, legal, strong legal argument to be made 458 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:57,359 Speaker 9: against the maps, maybe that isn't determined until twenty twenty eight. 459 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,199 Speaker 9: And you know, the White House pretty clearly is looking 460 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,119 Speaker 9: at this and saying, hey, how can we maximize as 461 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,920 Speaker 9: Republicans our chance of keeping the House in twenty twenty six, 462 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 9: which is Trump's last midterm because he's constitutionally forbidden from 463 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,399 Speaker 9: running for office again in twenty twenty eight, And all 464 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:13,960 Speaker 9: these moves are designed toward that goal. 465 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 2: Remember that vote in California fifteen years ago, as Arnold 466 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:25,560 Speaker 2: Schwarzenegger urged voters to terminate jerry mandering. The New York 467 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:29,000 Speaker 2: Times reminds us of this in the story that they 468 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,159 Speaker 2: wrote up on it. Jerry Mandering has been blamed for 469 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:36,320 Speaker 2: the partisan political world that we now live in. Kyle. 470 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 2: Not to get too big picture, but this is the 471 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,199 Speaker 2: root of our part is in evil, is it not. 472 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:44,920 Speaker 9: I don't know if I'd go that far. I mean 473 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 9: I do think that, I mean, you know, in an 474 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,680 Speaker 9: ideal world, I think that, you know, Congress would create 475 00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:53,080 Speaker 9: rules for redistricting that was sort of fair between the states. 476 00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:55,199 Speaker 9: But the thing is is that what your definition of 477 00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 9: fair might be and what my definition definition of fair 478 00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,240 Speaker 9: might be could potentially differ. I will say that that, 479 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 9: you know, you do have a situation where a lot 480 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 9: of members are in safe seats, even in you know, 481 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:08,119 Speaker 9: one of the things in jerrymandering is you. And this 482 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,720 Speaker 9: is what the current Texas map really is, is that 483 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 9: you have a bunch of safe Republican seats and then 484 00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:16,040 Speaker 9: you have a smaller number of safe Democratic seats to 485 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,159 Speaker 9: the point where very few of the actual districts are 486 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:22,320 Speaker 9: competitive in general elections. And that does maybe make members 487 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,200 Speaker 9: a little bit more you know, relying on primary voters 488 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,359 Speaker 9: and appealing to them as opposed to as opposed to 489 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 9: you know, general election swing voters. But even if you 490 00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,040 Speaker 9: had the you know, criteria for non parties in a 491 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,159 Speaker 9: redistrict thing, you'd still have a bunch of safe seats. So, 492 00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:38,160 Speaker 9: you know, I think there's a lot of other things 493 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,920 Speaker 9: at play behind beyond jerrymandering. Even though I think we 494 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:44,119 Speaker 9: could sort of agree that, you know, drawing partisan lines 495 00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,440 Speaker 9: for your own parties benefit, you know that that's not 496 00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:47,880 Speaker 9: something that's particularly appealing. 497 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,879 Speaker 2: Kyle Connick, we just spent better part of three months 498 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 2: talking about cuts to Medicaid, cuts to snap cuts to 499 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,680 Speaker 2: food stamps, and we've seen some pretty chippy town halls. 500 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 2: Lead to the conventional wisdom that in an off year 501 00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:05,119 Speaker 2: it might be even more difficult for the party in 502 00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:09,480 Speaker 2: power to maintain control of Capitol Hill, the House, and 503 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:12,919 Speaker 2: maybe even in this case, the Senate. What are you 504 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,320 Speaker 2: seeing as the ground shifts beneath our feet here in 505 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,719 Speaker 2: the impact that the President's big, beautiful bill will have 506 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:18,800 Speaker 2: on the midterm elections. 507 00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 9: Look, it's an unpopular piece of legislation. I think at 508 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:27,200 Speaker 9: the very best, Republicans you know, won't suffer because of it, 509 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:30,360 Speaker 9: and I think it's possible they will suffer because of it. 510 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 9: It's hard to find examples from history of you know, 511 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,159 Speaker 9: party passing a big, kind of one party piece of 512 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,159 Speaker 9: legislation and then you know, benefiting from it in the 513 00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:41,439 Speaker 9: you know, in the next election, in the next midterm 514 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:43,919 Speaker 9: you know, I think we we've seen throughout twenty twenty 515 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 9: five that there's been you know, a handful of special 516 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:47,960 Speaker 9: elections here and there, and it kind of feels like 517 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,159 Speaker 9: twenty seventeen did, and that you know, the Democrats are 518 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 9: sort of more engaged, that there was sort of the 519 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,479 Speaker 9: usual forces kind of working against the White House Party. 520 00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,920 Speaker 9: I think what's what's interesting about this, this potential gerrymander 521 00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,200 Speaker 9: in Texas and so of the ripple effects of it 522 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,720 Speaker 9: is that it would open the possibility that there could 523 00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:07,520 Speaker 9: in fact be a big wave against the Republicans next year, 524 00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:09,919 Speaker 9: and that you know, for the Democrats to win the 525 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,960 Speaker 9: House popular vote by several points, but Republicans might still 526 00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:14,720 Speaker 9: be able to hold on the House because of because 527 00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,920 Speaker 9: of new Jerry managers. So that's that that throws the House, 528 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,360 Speaker 9: I think in the House, I think into a little 529 00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:21,640 Speaker 9: bit more uncertainty. 530 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 2: This is why this could be fun stuff to talk 531 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,360 Speaker 2: about this far out. We've only got a minute left, Kyle, 532 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,919 Speaker 2: But I'm curious if we should be reading into fundraising yet. 533 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,240 Speaker 2: The NRCC out raising the d triple C in June 534 00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:37,240 Speaker 2: and for all of the second quarter. Does the money 535 00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,560 Speaker 2: matter in a world of politics like this. 536 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:44,359 Speaker 9: I do think it matters on the margins, although you know, 537 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:46,800 Speaker 9: we've seen plenty of instances in recent years where you 538 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:48,760 Speaker 9: know one side has a big money advantage and doesn't 539 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:52,159 Speaker 9: necessarily you know that that doesn't necessarily produce a victory 540 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,320 Speaker 9: for them. I think that, you know, one of the 541 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,199 Speaker 9: things we've seen with Democrats, I think is that you know, 542 00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 9: some of their fundraising may tick up, particularly as they 543 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 9: get nominees and some of these districts that they're trying 544 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:05,560 Speaker 9: to challenge in. I think Republicans can be perfectly happy 545 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:07,679 Speaker 9: with the start they're off to in terms of fundraising, 546 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,920 Speaker 9: but again, honessarily know if it's predictive one way or 547 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:10,240 Speaker 9: the other. 548 00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:13,360 Speaker 2: It's great to have you back. Kyle. The book again 549 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,280 Speaker 2: is Campaign of Chaos. He's managing editor Sabado's Crystal Ball 550 00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:20,199 Speaker 2: UVA Center for Politics and a great mind when it 551 00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:22,120 Speaker 2: comes to elections. We'll be talking to Kyle a lot 552 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:23,960 Speaker 2: more as we work our way through the next year. 553 00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,960 Speaker 2: Kyle Condick on Bloomberg, I'm Joe, Matthew, and Washington will 554 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:29,960 Speaker 2: assemble our political panel next. Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis 555 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 2: are on the way in Bloomberg Politics contributors with the 556 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:35,400 Speaker 2: latest from Capitol Hill is straight ahead right here on Bloomberg. 557 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 558 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 559 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,720 Speaker 1: Alma Coarckley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 560 00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 561 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,400 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 562 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:58,400 Speaker 2: Things are about to get scarce around here in Washington. 563 00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,320 Speaker 2: This is the last week the how U, last scheduled 564 00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:05,679 Speaker 2: week before heading off on summer recess. The Senate is 565 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:09,359 Speaker 2: only set to go through next week, although Donald Trump 566 00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:13,720 Speaker 2: would like them to work overtime. The President in a 567 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:18,199 Speaker 2: series of truth social posts over the weekend, also calling 568 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 2: on Senators to work overtime, saying John Thune should quote 569 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:26,120 Speaker 2: cancel August recess and long weekends in order to get 570 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:31,440 Speaker 2: my incredible nominees confirmed unquote. That could happen. There might 571 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,240 Speaker 2: be a little bit of overtime, But we're wondering what 572 00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,560 Speaker 2: kind of legislation could still come out of this Congress, 573 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,639 Speaker 2: if anything, Now that the Recisions Bill has passed, the 574 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 2: Crypto legislation has been signed into law by the President, 575 00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:43,439 Speaker 2: and we turned to our panel for more on this. 576 00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis are with us. 577 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,199 Speaker 2: Genie are Democratic analyst and senior Democracy fellow with the 578 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,800 Speaker 2: Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Rick 579 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:58,399 Speaker 2: Davis are Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. Genie, 580 00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:02,080 Speaker 2: maybe you have the end here, because the conventional wisdom 581 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:05,960 Speaker 2: is the narrative is Democrats feel burned and they are 582 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,800 Speaker 2: not willing to play ball that HAKM. Jeffries will sit 583 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 2: on his hands when it comes time to write a 584 00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,400 Speaker 2: budget for the next fiscal year. Can Congress crank out 585 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:19,760 Speaker 2: anything else from this time moving forward, including a budget 586 00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:20,400 Speaker 2: for next year? 587 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 6: I think it's looking increasingly less likely. And it is 588 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 6: Hakeem Jeffries, it's also Chuck Schumer. And you know, one 589 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,239 Speaker 6: of the things of the many things that happen in 590 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,560 Speaker 6: just the last few days was the OMB director Russ 591 00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:38,840 Speaker 6: Vote saying that the process should be less bipartisan. And 592 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 6: that is just another nail in the coffin, if you will. 593 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:47,280 Speaker 6: And Democrats feel, and I think rightly so, that what 594 00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 6: is the point of them negotiating these appropriations bills if 595 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,240 Speaker 6: they don't have assurance that it's going to be a 596 00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 6: bipartisan process, and if they don't have assurance that once 597 00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:01,680 Speaker 6: they get these bills through that they won't be clawed back. 598 00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:05,040 Speaker 6: They warned Republicans about this with the recision package passed 599 00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,360 Speaker 6: last week, and they are getting no assurances on that. 600 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,320 Speaker 6: So I think that is going to make this process 601 00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:14,520 Speaker 6: something that I will be surprised if we see them 602 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 6: negotiate these bills. I think we are headed towards an 603 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:23,080 Speaker 6: attempt at a cr and possibly, unfortunately, a shutdown unless 604 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,880 Speaker 6: Republicans get together take back the power of Congress to 605 00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,440 Speaker 6: legislate the power of the purse that they own, and 606 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,200 Speaker 6: to do it in a bipartisan manner and not hang 607 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,520 Speaker 6: the threat of recisions over their heads once they pass 608 00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 6: a bill. 609 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:41,560 Speaker 2: Everybody's talking about a shutdown already. Rick, we were getting 610 00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,960 Speaker 2: into this last week ahead of the recisions package passing. 611 00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,720 Speaker 2: Is that the right conversation to be having right now? 612 00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,560 Speaker 2: What are your appropriations friends telling you when it's time 613 00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:52,080 Speaker 2: to get Democrats on the phone. 614 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,880 Speaker 8: Well, I mean there's been a number of successful appropriations 615 00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:58,480 Speaker 8: bills get through committee. I mean you would think right 616 00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:02,200 Speaker 8: now it seems business as usual, which usually means passage 617 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:06,160 Speaker 8: of these bills, all twelve appropriations bills by wide margins 618 00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:08,760 Speaker 8: on the floor of the Senate sixty seven eighty four 619 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,120 Speaker 8: votes in order to get those things done. 620 00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:12,120 Speaker 4: Typically they're not. 621 00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:16,320 Speaker 8: Seen as partisan bills. That being said, we haven't had 622 00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:18,840 Speaker 8: a recisions package in a while, and it'll be interesting 623 00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,520 Speaker 8: to see the timing. I mean, when does the next 624 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:25,240 Speaker 8: recision bill get submitted from the White House to Congress, 625 00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,640 Speaker 8: because that could be what pushes Democrats over the edge. 626 00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 8: And if Democrats say, hey, we're done, we're not going 627 00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:36,160 Speaker 8: to participate in the appropriations process, and some of them 628 00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:40,800 Speaker 8: have walked out of committee meetings already, then Republicans cannot 629 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:44,520 Speaker 8: legislate on their own. They can't pass a cr they 630 00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:48,120 Speaker 8: can't pass appropriations bills in advance of that, and so 631 00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:51,960 Speaker 8: by definition, you're into a government shutdown. 632 00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 4: And I really kind of wonder, like what is the 633 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:56,160 Speaker 4: Democratic plan. 634 00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 8: I mean, Schumer's not indicating one way or another whether 635 00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:00,160 Speaker 8: he was going to. 636 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:01,160 Speaker 4: Participate in any of this. 637 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,800 Speaker 8: And I do think the earlier clip with the governor 638 00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:06,800 Speaker 8: of California saying, you know, we played by the wrong 639 00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,160 Speaker 8: set of rules or the different set of rules. Maybe 640 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:11,240 Speaker 8: the Senate's going to start playing by their own set 641 00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 8: of rules. So I think there's a lot up in 642 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,200 Speaker 8: the air, and so I think your point, we're going 643 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:18,200 Speaker 8: to see a lot of. 644 00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 4: Confirmations come the next two weeks. 645 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:25,160 Speaker 8: They're over one hundred and twenty yes that are waiting 646 00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:25,560 Speaker 8: for action. 647 00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:25,880 Speaker 2: One. 648 00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,160 Speaker 8: I feel sorry for Senator Tim Kine who's going to 649 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:30,040 Speaker 8: have to come in because all the Democrats will leave 650 00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:31,400 Speaker 8: and he'll have to come. 651 00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:31,920 Speaker 4: And just object. 652 00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:34,719 Speaker 2: And that is actually going to happen. Do they work 653 00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:35,640 Speaker 2: over time until they're done. 654 00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:38,400 Speaker 8: Yeah, they'll They will process a lot of those, if 655 00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:41,960 Speaker 8: not all of them, because they can, and so get 656 00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:45,080 Speaker 8: rid of the backlog because they really can't get anything 657 00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:46,880 Speaker 8: done on the appropriations process for a while. 658 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,520 Speaker 2: Now understood, Genie Rick brings up a great point. Is 659 00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:53,640 Speaker 2: this in fact the plan that Hakeim Jeffreys and Chuck 660 00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,640 Speaker 2: Schumer have put together? Because russ Vote said if this 661 00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 2: first Decisions package passes, there's going to be another one 662 00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,000 Speaker 2: and it's going to be bigger. That sounds to me 663 00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:03,520 Speaker 2: like we've stopped talking. 664 00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,480 Speaker 6: Absolutely, they've stopped talking. The one thing I'll disagree with 665 00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:11,120 Speaker 6: is I don't think the ball is in the Democrats court. 666 00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,280 Speaker 6: I mean, the ball is really in the Republicans court. 667 00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:17,360 Speaker 6: If they want to do what russ Vote said, which 668 00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:21,800 Speaker 6: is not due appropriations in a bipartisan manner, then they 669 00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:25,320 Speaker 6: own this. And what we've heard from the appropriators, whether 670 00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:28,720 Speaker 6: it's Murphy, whether it's Van holland several others have said, 671 00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:33,200 Speaker 6: the reality is we need assurances that if we are 672 00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:36,520 Speaker 6: going to negotiate, you're not going to claw back. If 673 00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:40,280 Speaker 6: Republicans can't give those assurances, and who knows that those 674 00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:41,880 Speaker 6: would be enough, by the way, but if they can't 675 00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:46,680 Speaker 6: even give those assurances, what motive do Democrats have to 676 00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:50,200 Speaker 6: hand over what little power they have in this process 677 00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:54,080 Speaker 6: to Republicans at this point. Chuck Schumer, let's not forget, 678 00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:58,840 Speaker 6: did that in March and he was widely widely attacked 679 00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,960 Speaker 6: by his own base. And I think Democrats are waking 680 00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,680 Speaker 6: up a little slow, but waking up to the fact 681 00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:08,560 Speaker 6: that Congress and the Republicans and the President have stopped 682 00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:13,080 Speaker 6: playing by normal rules and procedures when it comes to Congress. 683 00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 6: They have handed over their power to the president. And 684 00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,480 Speaker 6: why should Democrats, they feel, play a part in that. 685 00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:22,680 Speaker 6: So I do think we are likely headed for a shutdown, 686 00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:25,680 Speaker 6: and I do think the Democrats just have to keep 687 00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:29,479 Speaker 6: asking Republicans, do you want to play ball? Give us 688 00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,240 Speaker 6: some assurances, and let's see if Republicans can do that. 689 00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,200 Speaker 2: Well, this goes both ways, Rick, as you've made the 690 00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:38,680 Speaker 2: point you get aligned the equivalent of a line item 691 00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:40,640 Speaker 2: Vito for the President of the United States that could 692 00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:45,000 Speaker 2: be a Democrat at some point, and governing by reconciliation 693 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,400 Speaker 2: would work for Democrats just as easily are we in 694 00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:51,360 Speaker 2: fact setting a new course here for Congress. 695 00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:54,560 Speaker 8: Could be We've been passing reconciliation bills a lot, yeah, 696 00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:58,080 Speaker 8: and CIDs and crs, so a lot of this budgeting 697 00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:00,920 Speaker 8: process regular order, my favorite. 698 00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:02,320 Speaker 4: Term, has kind of declined. 699 00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:05,560 Speaker 8: But I would add, look, it's an optics thing, right, 700 00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:07,200 Speaker 8: who's actually shutting down government. 701 00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:08,399 Speaker 4: Republics are going to say, hey. 702 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,560 Speaker 8: Look, out of committee, we pass all twelve of these 703 00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:13,759 Speaker 8: right appropriations bills. We're ready to take this both to 704 00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,040 Speaker 8: the floor, but we can't get Democrats to join us 705 00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:18,480 Speaker 8: in passing them. Democrats will say, because you're not playing 706 00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:19,479 Speaker 8: by the same set of rules. 707 00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:20,640 Speaker 4: What rules recision? 708 00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:22,279 Speaker 2: Nobody understands what recision is. 709 00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:25,719 Speaker 4: So let okay, let's do a cr We'll save the day. 710 00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:26,280 Speaker 4: With a CR. 711 00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,400 Speaker 8: Democrats say, no, CR, what are you doing? It's recisions? 712 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,359 Speaker 8: And people will say what's a recision? I mean, like 713 00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:36,319 Speaker 8: if I'm Johnson and Thune and I'm sitting there having 714 00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:39,960 Speaker 8: lunch trying to build legislative strategy, you know, after I'm 715 00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:42,880 Speaker 8: done laughing, I think they hold all the cards. 716 00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:45,400 Speaker 2: Wow, Genie, I don't know if Rick needs you for 717 00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:47,600 Speaker 2: this debate anymore. He just did that pretty well with 718 00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:50,600 Speaker 2: both sides for us here does he not have a point? 719 00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,000 Speaker 6: He does, he has a point, but I don't think 720 00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:58,239 Speaker 6: it's an effective one. The reality is people know, and 721 00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,440 Speaker 6: particularly the Democratic base that's going to be voting in 722 00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:06,319 Speaker 6: twenty twenty six, that Republicans are in charge of the legislature, 723 00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:09,160 Speaker 6: they are in charge of the White House. They don't 724 00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,520 Speaker 6: have to think about these things like recisions. What they 725 00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:16,759 Speaker 6: have to know is that Republicans are not willing to 726 00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:19,640 Speaker 6: deal with Democrats. I mean, Democrats need to ask a 727 00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:24,000 Speaker 6: very simple question, can you give us assurances that if 728 00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:27,040 Speaker 6: we work with you, you will not cut our feet 729 00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:30,080 Speaker 6: off in the end? And if Republicans can't get that, 730 00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:34,279 Speaker 6: what incentive do Democrats have to work with them? So 731 00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:37,080 Speaker 6: I think it's actually the opposite of what Rick said. 732 00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:40,880 Speaker 6: If Democrats just went along because they're scared of explaining 733 00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:44,480 Speaker 6: what are recisions is, then they are going to lose. 734 00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,680 Speaker 6: They have got to stand their ground for what we 735 00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:51,840 Speaker 6: all know should be a regular process of appropriating that 736 00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:54,920 Speaker 6: starts in the first branch. And the president doesn't have 737 00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:58,520 Speaker 6: a line item veto, nor do these recisions work if 738 00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:01,920 Speaker 6: they negotiate and he's that should be the law. So 739 00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:05,319 Speaker 6: I think, actually it's quite the opposite. And I know 740 00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:08,040 Speaker 6: I won't have the conversation with myself like Rick did, 741 00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:10,160 Speaker 6: and I'm no comedian, but I don't think it's that 742 00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:11,959 Speaker 6: complicated to explain either. 743 00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,000 Speaker 2: Well, so you wonder if anything that's not budget related 744 00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:19,160 Speaker 2: could emerge in this Congress, Rick, is there any policy 745 00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:22,360 Speaker 2: in the form of legislation that could pass this body 746 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:25,239 Speaker 2: between now and the midterms. You've got some stuff out there, 747 00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:28,520 Speaker 2: Steve Danes as a bill to rename the Washington football 748 00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,279 Speaker 2: team the President was talking about over the weekend. I mean, 749 00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:33,280 Speaker 2: could something exotic get through this body? 750 00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:34,399 Speaker 4: Yeah? First of all, it's been. 751 00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:36,520 Speaker 8: A pretty productive Congress in the first six months of 752 00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:39,320 Speaker 8: Donald Trump's presidency, so it's not like it's in a gridlock, 753 00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:43,919 Speaker 8: and there's no downside to just posting up another reconciliation 754 00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:47,120 Speaker 8: bill in the fall, which has been promised, which has 755 00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,000 Speaker 8: and has been done in the past. And I would 756 00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:52,640 Speaker 8: remind Genie, I mean Bill Clinton did recision packages and 757 00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:55,160 Speaker 8: the world didn't come to a stop then. Now, granted 758 00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:57,520 Speaker 8: we did have a government shut down, but that wasn't 759 00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:00,680 Speaker 8: because of recisions. And it is as a rule that 760 00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:02,759 Speaker 8: the president can actually have and if he's got a 761 00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:07,200 Speaker 8: Congress that'll go along with him, great. But at the 762 00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:09,960 Speaker 8: end of the day, right now, I think the Republicans, 763 00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:12,000 Speaker 8: to use a term that Donald Trump uses in. 764 00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:15,240 Speaker 4: The Oval Office all the time, they've got the card. 765 00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:19,640 Speaker 2: I got a little bit nervous there, Geni. You know, 766 00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:24,959 Speaker 2: you're talking about assurances from the other party. In your case, 767 00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:28,839 Speaker 2: the Republican party isn't passing a bill and signing it 768 00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:31,640 Speaker 2: into law. Kind of the definition of an assurance. How 769 00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:32,600 Speaker 2: do you get more than that? 770 00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:37,720 Speaker 6: Well, that's a question for Republicans' answer, because that's what happened. 771 00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:40,640 Speaker 6: And they came back and they took back the nine billion. 772 00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:44,759 Speaker 6: And I very well remember the past recisions policies or 773 00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:48,600 Speaker 6: practices that came to the Congress but the difference there 774 00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:52,040 Speaker 6: was something that Susan Collins talked about last week, which 775 00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:56,839 Speaker 6: was that came with details about what was entailed and 776 00:37:56,920 --> 00:38:00,000 Speaker 6: why this money was being pulled back. There are certain 777 00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:05,200 Speaker 6: certainly reasons to engage in a recisions practice, but that 778 00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:07,879 Speaker 6: is not what occurred in this case. And you had 779 00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:12,600 Speaker 6: Republicans asking russ vote for details on what was happening, 780 00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:15,480 Speaker 6: why it was happening, why it was needed, none of 781 00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:19,239 Speaker 6: which was responded to. And so that is what is 782 00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:22,520 Speaker 6: needed is you need a policy and practice in place 783 00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:25,319 Speaker 6: where you can do these things in a way that 784 00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:28,759 Speaker 6: are meaningful. Yes, you can appropriate money and pull it back, 785 00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:31,120 Speaker 6: but you need to know why it's happening. It can't 786 00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:34,479 Speaker 6: just be Donald Trump's whim because he wants the money. 787 00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:39,200 Speaker 2: Well, you do wonder what happens to assurances on money 788 00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:42,799 Speaker 2: for those tribal stations. Mike Rounds asked for Jeanie Shanzino 789 00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:46,839 Speaker 2: and Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributors. You'll only hear right 790 00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:52,360 Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Balance of 791 00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:56,400 Speaker 2: Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, 792 00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:59,520 Speaker 2: Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can 793 00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:02,640 Speaker 2: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC, at noontime 794 00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:04,880 Speaker 2: Eastern at bloomberg dot com.