Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Clovel News. So much going on throughout the week,
Speaker 1: and of course it's continuing on this Friday. Upside surprise.
Speaker 1: Let's get back to one of the big stories of
Speaker 1: the day, and normally would be our top story about
Speaker 1: costs of the ongoing war in Ukraine. That is certainly
Speaker 1: front and center. But let's not forget we did get
Speaker 1: that upside surprise from the US Labor Department this morning.
Speaker 1: US hiring booming in the month of February. What weight
Speaker 1: growth ooh slowing? Although Elena saying of our Bloomberg intelligence team,
Speaker 1: maybe not something to be too concerned about, but nonetheless
Speaker 1: safe to say strong jobs report. Yeah, the number we
Speaker 1: got was six seventy eight thousand. The change in non
Speaker 1: farm payrolls that was expected by surveyces by Economist, survey
Speaker 1: by Bloomberg was fo three thousand. Person we go to
Speaker 1: oftentimes to talk about the economy and jobs is Becky Francoitz,
Speaker 1: President a Manpower North Manpower Group North America. She joins
Speaker 1: us on the phone from Chicago. Uh, Becky, I want
Speaker 1: to get your thoughts on digging a little deeper into
Speaker 1: this payrolls report. Uh, what about the wage growth not
Speaker 1: growing to the extent that it should in such a
Speaker 1: tight labor market? Is that something to be concerned about? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I would agree with your analysts. Actually, we have seen
Speaker 1: really remarkable wage expansion, particularly in the blue collar segment
Speaker 1: of the economy, and so it's not it's not something
Speaker 1: I would be too concerned about at this point. I think,
Speaker 1: you know, we today is a very good day for
Speaker 1: the American labor market. We should feel confident in our
Speaker 1: employer's ability to navigate and certainties and adapt for change.
Speaker 1: And I think that the lack of wage progress is
Speaker 1: u is a point in time, and will likely continue
Speaker 1: to see promise in that arena as we go forward.
Speaker 1: But why shouldn't we be concerned about it? And what
Speaker 1: makes you think we're going to see progress? Is it
Speaker 1: just because of the basics tenants of supply and demand.
Speaker 1: If it's a tight labor market, people are companies are
Speaker 1: gonna have to pay more to tract and retain talent.
Speaker 1: You know, I would say it's it's likely due to
Speaker 1: the large number of jobs created in blue collar sectors
Speaker 1: where we've already seen significant wage increases before the pandemic. Again,
Speaker 1: it's not you know, I've I've really been grateful to
Speaker 1: see the wage growth that we've experienced in the economy.
Speaker 1: But we know the employers are looking at significant wage increases,
Speaker 1: are looking at full compensation, and so what what will
Speaker 1: would be required going forward to attract workers is what
Speaker 1: they'll do. And you know, so I think for the
Speaker 1: month it's a blip. We've seen amazing wage expansion, and
Speaker 1: I anticipate in a tight labor market because you know,
Speaker 1: rest assured demand is incredibly strong and I love Caroll
Speaker 1: your word booming. I mean it was a booming labor report,
Speaker 1: and demand continues to be strong, and that really is
Speaker 1: what we're focused on. And if, if, if wages need
Speaker 1: to expand to attract workers, that's what will happen. I
Speaker 1: was also very pleased to see work for participation expanse.
Speaker 1: That was a very very good isn't that interesting for
Speaker 1: every He was saying, Okay, we really kind of feel
Speaker 1: like everybody who wants a job has one. But that
Speaker 1: move up was was um significant to agree. Becky. Hey,
Speaker 1: one thing I wanted to ask you though about wages.
Speaker 1: We've got to think, is it states this year that
Speaker 1: are raising the minimum wage? Isn't that going to provide
Speaker 1: some support and some floor in terms of um, you know,
Speaker 1: pushing wages higher overall? Yeah, Carol, I would say, is
Speaker 1: we started started this year? You know, people talked about
Speaker 1: new beginnings in a new year, and I was on
Speaker 1: the record talking about endings, and I think the end
Speaker 1: of twenty one and going into mark the end of
Speaker 1: the concept of minimum wage. It's not really minimum or
Speaker 1: maximum wage. It's required wage. What's required to get people,
Speaker 1: you know, to come off the sidelines first and then
Speaker 1: to come to work for you. And so yes, I
Speaker 1: you know, I do think we'll see you know, use
Speaker 1: the word floor. I don't I don't know. I don't
Speaker 1: know if if we could talk about floors and it's
Speaker 1: I think we have to talk about what's required. So
Speaker 1: you said required minimum wage, and that would just it's
Speaker 1: required wage. YEA interesting, Okay, what about when it comes
Speaker 1: to participation among women, especially women of prime labor age. Um,
Speaker 1: we not only saw the clients they're in total in
Speaker 1: total for for those women, but also for black women
Speaker 1: and Asian women as well, and for women overall. It
Speaker 1: was the first decline in participation that we saw in
Speaker 1: in five months. What do you read how do you
Speaker 1: read into that? Yeah, so you know it's it's ironic
Speaker 1: to him as we As we're right ahead of International
Speaker 1: Women's Day, obviously we're keeping a close look on gender
Speaker 1: in the workforce. And one of the things that we
Speaker 1: know from our real time data is demand is on
Speaker 1: fire and I T and Tech that for most of
Speaker 1: the growth SITH and yet women are really underrepresented in
Speaker 1: that segment of the workforce. And so in fact they
Speaker 1: represent about of that segment I'm compared with over fifty
Speaker 1: percent in leisure and hospitality, and so one of the
Speaker 1: things we have to make sure is that women have
Speaker 1: the skills and are upskilling and interested in moving into
Speaker 1: some of those booming areas of the economy. Like I
Speaker 1: t so, I think that it's one um the other,
Speaker 1: I would say, And I heard you all talking about it.
Speaker 1: Childcare continues to be a challenge. Like we think that's reopened,
Speaker 1: it's not. It's not completely reopen. And that's been a
Speaker 1: real challenge. And I was very, very disappointed to see
Speaker 1: the African American female participation or unemployment excuse me, um
Speaker 1: go up. That was a very disappointing number. Yes, right,
Speaker 1: and you do wonder we know, you know, FED Chief
Speaker 1: j Palace talked about making it inclusive when it comes
Speaker 1: to this recovery. But you do wonder. You know, Becky,
Speaker 1: you're smart, you run a company. You're looking at what's
Speaker 1: going on the labor market, but you also see the
Speaker 1: inflationary pressures that are out there. Are you concerned that
Speaker 1: the FED will risk doing something too aggressively that might
Speaker 1: undermine ultimately the US labor market. Well, you know, it's
Speaker 1: it's a funny thing, Cheryl is one of the things
Speaker 1: I haven't been asked recently, is, hey, you know, what's
Speaker 1: the different definition of full employment? Because we're now down
Speaker 1: to three. You know, we've all had a new definition
Speaker 1: of that. So what I would say is, I, you know,
Speaker 1: I'm not an expert on the FED. I hope that
Speaker 1: they take a broad look. But what we do, you know,
Speaker 1: is this, this concern and realization of inflation is bringing
Speaker 1: some people off the sidelines. And so as we see
Speaker 1: the workforce start bouncing back because people need to work,
Speaker 1: as as prices go up, um, you know, wages continue
Speaker 1: to go up. We don't. We don't want to see
Speaker 1: a wage of spiral happen where they continue to escalate. Um.
Speaker 1: But the FED will likely have to act. Becky really quickly,
Speaker 1: just got about twenty seconds here. If you have to
Speaker 1: pick one sector where you're seeing a ton of hiring
Speaker 1: going on, where is it? It's I T software developers.
Speaker 1: All right, good to know. Hey, listen, be well, have
Speaker 1: a great and safe weekend. Becky Franco, its president of
Speaker 1: Manpower Group North America, on the phone from Chicago. I T.
Speaker 1: We're talking a lot about it this. Yeah, I was
Speaker 1: just thinking that Carol, you're reading my mind. If we
Speaker 1: think about the impact that the war in Ukraine has
Speaker 1: on information technology, so many startups and established companies to
Speaker 1: have offices that have I T. Tech talent in those areas. Um,
Speaker 1: how's it affected. Well, you know, we talk about the
Speaker 1: global supply chain, we talk about our interconnectedness, right, and
Speaker 1: that include our global workforce, right Like it's it's just
Speaker 1: that's the world today, the reality. This is Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Well, the new issue of Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week gets out. It's at Bloomberg dot com, is this
Speaker 1: Week dot com, on news stands and on the Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 1: It's about how to punish Russian Vladimir Putin and how
Speaker 1: the world has turned to finance, making it into a
Speaker 1: weapon of war, with the Russian Central Bank really becoming
Speaker 1: the main target. Tim. Yeah, Matt's story, Matt Bosler story.
Speaker 1: That is it's featured the new issue of Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week magazine. It's available now on newsstands, on the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: and at Bloomberg dot com, Slash business Week. It's a
Speaker 1: really really important story. It's a really important issue to cover.
Speaker 1: Is incredibly powerful. Joe Weber joins us as the editor
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Business. We he joined us now on the
Speaker 1: access line from Brooklyn. Joel, It's fair to say the
Speaker 1: moves that we've seen from the European Union, the United States,
Speaker 1: handful of America's allies in Asia in the last seven
Speaker 1: days or so have been pretty unprecedented, totally unprecedented, and
Speaker 1: and even just the sort of the about face that
Speaker 1: the Germany UM on its own happens, you know, that
Speaker 1: unwinds you know, more than fifty years, sixty years of
Speaker 1: policy UM and all because of obviously uh Putin's aggression
Speaker 1: UM in Ukraine. UM. The the idea that we kind
Speaker 1: of set out here was that we've we've really never
Speaker 1: seen UM the financial the finance system UM turned into
Speaker 1: UM a weapon UM, and with the intent of obviously
Speaker 1: crippling Russia and and making Russia pull back. And clearly
Speaker 1: already even we've we've seen that that strategy may have
Speaker 1: some limitations, but even the nature of of where it
Speaker 1: has gotten us too is, you know, in a couple
Speaker 1: of years of just unprecedented, unprecedented, unprecedented, here we are
Speaker 1: yet again using the word unprecedented. So so Matt talked
Speaker 1: to us about UM, how it's come to pass and
Speaker 1: and people who you know study this stuff. Um what
Speaker 1: what what do you what did you learn from reporting
Speaker 1: it up? Yeah, So I think one of the keys
Speaker 1: to understanding what's going on here is, um, you know,
Speaker 1: looking at the history of central banks can actually help
Speaker 1: you understand this a little bit, right, because central banks,
Speaker 1: going back to their beginning, really have been, um, you know,
Speaker 1: heavily involved in war finance. A lot of them were
Speaker 1: set up, you know, basically for the express purpose of
Speaker 1: financing wars. And so, um, what we have here is
Speaker 1: a situation in which we are bringing down the hammer
Speaker 1: on a central bank, Russia's central bank, in a really
Speaker 1: unprecedented way for a country of Russia's size and importance
Speaker 1: in the global economy. And so if you think of
Speaker 1: the central bank as being kind of a key mechanism
Speaker 1: through which countries have sort of always financed wars, it
Speaker 1: helps explain why, um, you know, the West is going
Speaker 1: after Russia's central bank and why that is so significant. So,
Speaker 1: you know, obviously, the story in Russia over the last
Speaker 1: several years has been one where they have been building
Speaker 1: up foreign exchange reserves to the tune of hundreds of
Speaker 1: billions of dollars um, you know, kind of salting them
Speaker 1: away for a quote unquote rainy day or you know,
Speaker 1: in this case, a military conflict. And uh, they thought
Speaker 1: those reserves were going to be there um and be
Speaker 1: able to be utilized to kind of insulate themselves from
Speaker 1: the fallout of the blowback if they were to take
Speaker 1: a step like this um. And what we're learning over
Speaker 1: the last week or so is that's not the case
Speaker 1: because you know, those reserves are largely held in places
Speaker 1: like the United States and Europe UM and basically those
Speaker 1: jurisdictions have flipped the switch and said you don't have
Speaker 1: access to these anymore. Well, that's what's really cool. There's
Speaker 1: some great stuff, and you reference Bloomberg opinion columnist Matt Levine.
Speaker 1: What's interesting is it's not just about building up reserves
Speaker 1: in it being you know, to entry in the accounting
Speaker 1: ledger of the Russian Central Bank. It is about those
Speaker 1: global relationships that the Russian Central Bank had in the
Speaker 1: Russia and Russia as a country had with the rest
Speaker 1: of the world that ultimately really are mattering right now. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's really interesting to kind of, you know, step back
Speaker 1: from all of the news flow and get a little
Speaker 1: philosophical here on the nature of money, right, because we're
Speaker 1: getting another amazing object lesson in exactly that this week. Right.
Speaker 1: So you know, you can think of politics almost as
Speaker 1: a spectrum, uh, you know, between people who think of
Speaker 1: money as a social relationship um that is, you know,
Speaker 1: basically defined by um, you know, who is willing to
Speaker 1: accept that money, right, versus on the other end of
Speaker 1: the spectrum, people who think of money more as a thing, right,
Speaker 1: like the commodity standard, the gold, like something that you
Speaker 1: possess that you can then utilize as you see fit.
Speaker 1: And you know, this is just another example, kind of
Speaker 1: on a global scale of that social character money where
Speaker 1: it really does depend on the person on the other
Speaker 1: side of the transaction being willing to accept it. And
Speaker 1: so you know, once again we're getting a real lesson
Speaker 1: in that. Hey man, I want to go back to
Speaker 1: what you said about salting some of that money away
Speaker 1: over the last few years in order to build these reserves.
Speaker 1: I'm wondering how that exacerbates the hit to Russia's economy
Speaker 1: that this takes, because that money wasn't then put back
Speaker 1: into the Russian economy, that's right. Yeah, so you know
Speaker 1: that is the trade off here that they have made, right.
Speaker 1: I mean, you could be um, you know, bringing in
Speaker 1: all of this money from exports of your natural resources,
Speaker 1: and you know, one thing you could be doing would
Speaker 1: be to be reinvesting that money into your economy, growing
Speaker 1: your economy, um, you know, building out your consumer base, UM,
Speaker 1: and your industry and so on and so forth, and
Speaker 1: and really modernizing. And that's something that um, you know,
Speaker 1: has been a problem for Russia because, um, you know,
Speaker 1: another aspect of this that we're seeing is now some
Speaker 1: of these export controls that are being put in place
Speaker 1: against them. You know, they import a lot of the
Speaker 1: really high tech necessities, UM you know, like things like
Speaker 1: computer chips and so on and so forth that they
Speaker 1: need to continue upgrading their military. Well, now the US
Speaker 1: and Europe is slapping bands on exports of that technology
Speaker 1: to Russia, and it's really closing doors for them in
Speaker 1: terms of what they're going to be able to do
Speaker 1: going forward. We're now doing the same with um, you know,
Speaker 1: high tech oil and gas exports, UM that they would
Speaker 1: need to continue you know, upgrading their um, you know,
Speaker 1: energy sector, and so that's uh, you know, that's going
Speaker 1: to be a big problem for them, and you know, uh,
Speaker 1: President Vladimir Putin is kind of saying, well, this is
Speaker 1: an opportunity for us to you know, now, um, increase
Speaker 1: our resiliency and our self reliance by actually developing you know,
Speaker 1: some of those capabilities on our own, but might be
Speaker 1: too too little, too late. Well, incredible story, and there's
Speaker 1: an incredible series of stories that make up the cover
Speaker 1: story this week in Bloomberg Business Week magazine. Highly recommend
Speaker 1: that you check them all out. Uh, that story and
Speaker 1: the others, certainly the magaz being on newsstands, on the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg and a Bloomberg dot com. Also in our weekend
Speaker 1: show or thanks to Matt Bosler, fed reporter here at
Speaker 1: Bloomberg along with the editor of Business Week, Jill Weber,
Speaker 1: you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Historian The
Speaker 1: Bloomberg though today about the coin based CEO, saying, ordinary
Speaker 1: Russians are using bitcoin as a lifeline now that their
Speaker 1: currency has collapsed. There's a lot we're watching in the
Speaker 1: crypto markets as a result of the Russian invasion UH
Speaker 1: into Ukraine and all the financial pushback by the world
Speaker 1: against Russia. Well, let's go deeper into that story with
Speaker 1: Corey Clipston at CEO at Swan Bitcoin. SWAT Swan Bitcoin
Speaker 1: is a financial services provider, is something that helps people
Speaker 1: automate purchasing a bitcoin, like a savings account for example. Corey,
Speaker 1: how are you welcome? Thank you so much for having
Speaker 1: me out A. Yeah, it's good to speak with you again. Corey. Um,
Speaker 1: you know, it's been a it's been a couple of
Speaker 1: weeks since we last spoken, and I'm wondering how you've
Speaker 1: been watching the events unfold in Ukraine and really how
Speaker 1: that plays out across cryptocurrency. I mean, I was talking
Speaker 1: to somebody earlier today and we were saying, wasn't this
Speaker 1: exactly what cryptocurrency was designed for, the facility to facilitate
Speaker 1: cross border transactions without a middle person. That's exactly right.
Speaker 1: It really is fascinating to watch this play out in
Speaker 1: real time. The last time that we really saw something
Speaker 1: on the global stage is almost out of memory. It
Speaker 1: was Cyprus in with the b O N and and
Speaker 1: that kind of coincided with the bitcoin bull run and
Speaker 1: that that caught the cohort of people that got interested,
Speaker 1: and it's already been nine years since then, and this
Speaker 1: is obviously of you know, one or two orders of
Speaker 1: magnitude larger in global consequence and in the amount of
Speaker 1: attention that it's attracting. And we're getting to see, you know,
Speaker 1: not just aggregated data coming out of the crisis and
Speaker 1: what bitcoin is being used for and how it's being used,
Speaker 1: but also just such a high volume of mechanic outs
Speaker 1: and stories coming out. And I'm getting to touch some
Speaker 1: of these stories personally, happy to share a couple of them. Well,
Speaker 1: and I want stories, and I want anecdotes. I want
Speaker 1: to know that really what you're seeing on your platform
Speaker 1: that you think is a direct result of what's going
Speaker 1: on in Ukraine and Russia. Yeah. So we are obviously,
Speaker 1: as as a company that serves humans all over the world,
Speaker 1: not taking sides, but we are also essentially an open
Speaker 1: platform and will serve anyone that we are not blocked
Speaker 1: from serving. And I will tell you that it appears
Speaker 1: that a little over of the headline volume of donations
Speaker 1: that are being collected in bitcoin are being processed by
Speaker 1: swan and turned into dollars by these these NGOs that
Speaker 1: are turning around and paying for aid and things on
Speaker 1: the ground in the Ukraine. So that's one story at
Speaker 1: a platform level. And then you know, as smaller story
Speaker 1: is my co founder of SWAN, Jan Pritsker, who talked
Speaker 1: about the experience of his family leaving Ukraine with only
Speaker 1: a hundred dollars worth of goods in and what that
Speaker 1: could have been had they had bitcoin, because they were
Speaker 1: a normal middle class family and could have could have
Speaker 1: been doing just fine had they been able to leave
Speaker 1: with some of their wealth. And you know, right now
Speaker 1: he has extended friends on the ground that can take
Speaker 1: funding right there, no middleman, as you said, don't need
Speaker 1: to find an n g O in the US to
Speaker 1: coordinate with an NGO in the Ukraine. There is a
Speaker 1: group of women in Kiev that are trusted through the
Speaker 1: network that are taking bitcoin donations directly to the people
Speaker 1: who need them right now today, and you know, I
Speaker 1: and others can can just make donations in that method.
Speaker 1: It really is fascinating. But coit What about the flip
Speaker 1: side of this and and and something that Carol alluded
Speaker 1: to is the idea and we've talked about it this
Speaker 1: week that you know, right now we see oligarchs on
Speaker 1: edge around the world as their assets are in some
Speaker 1: in some senses obfuscated or at least attempted to be
Speaker 1: confiscated by governments in Europe and other parts of the world.
Speaker 1: Does it Does it provide an opportunity for UH people
Speaker 1: who really shouldn't have access to capital because of sanctions,
Speaker 1: to get access to capital. I know you said that
Speaker 1: at SWAN you're not doing that. You're not allowing people
Speaker 1: access who are who are blocked or banned, but can't
Speaker 1: they get access to crypto? Well, it's a really bad
Speaker 1: way to launder money or try to do anything, sort
Speaker 1: of at a large level. So if you need to
Speaker 1: hide a lot of money or move a lot of money,
Speaker 1: that's very easy for law enforcement to see. It's very
Speaker 1: easy force sanctions providers to go and hunt that down.
Speaker 1: It's really a tool of freedom for the individual and
Speaker 1: sort of smaller players to be able to do what
Speaker 1: they want to do. But if you have a shortlist
Speaker 1: of sanctioned individuals or sanctioned entities and you can see
Speaker 1: literally everything on an open blockchain, that everybody has a
Speaker 1: copy of the sluicing there As we've seen time and
Speaker 1: time again of law enforcement and governmental agencies ability to
Speaker 1: go and hunt down bad actors or essentially anybody that
Speaker 1: they're looking to target is quite good and probably quite
Speaker 1: a bit better than they're able to go and crack
Speaker 1: what's going on with the major private banks and investing
Speaker 1: banks around the world. To be frank is you know,
Speaker 1: it's funny when I ask that question. I think back
Speaker 1: to you know, the so called crocodile of Wall Street,
Speaker 1: the you know, the woman and her husband as well,
Speaker 1: who were recently charged with with laundering bitcoin um and
Speaker 1: it was I don't want to say easy, because I
Speaker 1: didn't do it, but it was possible for US authorities
Speaker 1: to track them down. Well, what was interesting there is
Speaker 1: they sat on it all these years since because they
Speaker 1: couldn't figure out how to move it without it being seen, right,
Speaker 1: So they were sophisticated enough to pull up the social
Speaker 1: engineering of getting the bitcoin, but not sophisticated enough to
Speaker 1: understand end and figure out how to clean it. And
Speaker 1: that's a very very common story. You can see all
Speaker 1: the bit clins, but it's very difficult to spend it. Hey, Corey,
Speaker 1: one thing I'm curious about, and sometimes it's moments of
Speaker 1: crisis alla the pandemic that sped up the development of innovation, digitization,
Speaker 1: A lot of things that might have taken multiple years
Speaker 1: all of a sudden happened overnight because businesses, people, individuals
Speaker 1: for survival had to do it. Um. What I'm curious
Speaker 1: is you keep talking about um how I think you
Speaker 1: said donations collected by Swan in bitcoin. We're talking about
Speaker 1: donations to help out the people in Ukraine. What about though,
Speaker 1: how this event is maybe causing people a rethink about
Speaker 1: digital currencies and wanting to have access to digital currencies
Speaker 1: to just transact on a regular basis, not necessarily just
Speaker 1: in a moment of crisis. Any signs of that that
Speaker 1: you're seeing as a result of what's going on. So,
Speaker 1: in general of the past, amount of vasion of a
Speaker 1: new asset runs through the store of value first and
Speaker 1: then into medium of exchange, as more and more people
Speaker 1: store more of the value in an asset than they
Speaker 1: actually demand to be able to spend it. So I
Speaker 1: think we're still very very early, especially in the West,
Speaker 1: with a large consumer demand to be able to spend bitcoin.
Speaker 1: I still think this is a story of it's too
Speaker 1: late when the crisis is upon you to even be
Speaker 1: able to sell off. It's hard to find a buyer
Speaker 1: in the middle of the crisis, right, So you know,
Speaker 1: the time to the time for Lebanese folks to protect
Speaker 1: themselves was long before their currency collapsed and the economy
Speaker 1: kind of fell off the shelf right, And the time
Speaker 1: for Ukrainians and Russians to protect themselves was before there
Speaker 1: was essentially a you know, a hot conflict. And that's
Speaker 1: what you have to think about everywhere around the world
Speaker 1: is what percentage of your net worth are you going
Speaker 1: to hold outside of the system that is controlled by
Speaker 1: governments and central banks and is unconfiscatable and is non
Speaker 1: correlated in the zoomed out view with any other asset
Speaker 1: out there. This is just this is bitcoin and it
Speaker 1: it lives in the digital world alone, and and no
Speaker 1: one can take it from you. So each of us
Speaker 1: needs to think about, you know, what percentage of our
Speaker 1: net worths and what percentage of our liquid assets ought
Speaker 1: to be stored in the bitcoin. For the call, we're
Speaker 1: speaking with Corey eclipsed In, the CEO of a Swan Bitcoin,
Speaker 1: the financial services platform that helps people automate the purchase
Speaker 1: of bitcoin coin. I want to go back to something
Speaker 1: that you said earlier because it sounds like, you know,
Speaker 1: this is something good for for people. You know, cryptocurrency
Speaker 1: in your mind, is something that that works well for refugees,
Speaker 1: it works well for political dissidents, but at the same
Speaker 1: time doesn't work well for people trying to skirt sanctions.
Speaker 1: I'm having trouble making sense of those two things. How
Speaker 1: can it be for both? Yeah, it's the size. It's
Speaker 1: the size. So the people that are generally getting targeted
Speaker 1: um by the US government or or or by you know,
Speaker 1: those for lack of a better term, UM, I don't
Speaker 1: think it's about crypto Wales. We're mostly talking about oligarchs
Speaker 1: and people kind of close to the Russian government or
Speaker 1: even Russian entities, whether companies or or governmental entities, and
Speaker 1: the size that they would need to move the it's
Speaker 1: just too easy to spot that, and it's too easy
Speaker 1: to get in in front of that and stop that happening.
Speaker 1: They have to acquire the bitcoin somewhere. It's almost impossible
Speaker 1: to do that without going through a service that requires
Speaker 1: k y C and a mL know your customer and
Speaker 1: antim money laundering UM screens of the customers, and so
Speaker 1: they just can't get enough for it. To make a
Speaker 1: material difference versus you know, these commodity markets that they're
Speaker 1: operating in or these large you know stakes that they
Speaker 1: might be holding in different businesses or various accounts and
Speaker 1: things like that. So that's it's really you can hide
Speaker 1: when you're small numbers, but once the numbers get very big,
Speaker 1: it's it's impossible. You know, interesting talking to the head
Speaker 1: of a global organization yesterday and you know, a savvy investor,
Speaker 1: institutional investor, entrepreneur and just saying, you know, what's your
Speaker 1: exposure to crypto? And what's interesting is this individual said,
Speaker 1: you know, I've got to be looking at it basically
Speaker 1: but not necessarily having exposure yet, right but soon and
Speaker 1: tiptoeing into it. And so I do wonder how we
Speaker 1: need to all be thinking about um bitcoin specifically since
Speaker 1: that's the dominant player. So pre this crisis, previ war,
Speaker 1: let's be truthful about what's going on. What trends were
Speaker 1: you seeing in terms of adoption and growth on your platform,
Speaker 1: and be as specific as you could. Absolutely, Yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean I think we are still searching the wave of
Speaker 1: adoption that started with the realization of what bitcoin was
Speaker 1: for lots of new people and lots of famous people
Speaker 1: after the pandemic rolled out in in que of so
Speaker 1: you had people like Stanley Druppon Miller and Paul Teator
Speaker 1: Jones speaking openly about having large positions Bill Miller, and
Speaker 1: you know, obviously Michael Saylor hit the war path and
Speaker 1: did all the shows and continued to do them for
Speaker 1: the last two years. We've talked and now we're go ahead.
Speaker 1: Now we've talked with him. Yeah, go ahead, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: And and so now we're seeing an opportunity for a
Speaker 1: new cohort of business leaders and influential folks that are
Speaker 1: that are understanding what bitcoin is based on this crisis.
Speaker 1: So just so forgive me just real quickly, because we've
Speaker 1: only got about twenty seconds. So what kind of growth
Speaker 1: are you seeing in terms of users or the amount
Speaker 1: of activity that's going on to real quickly? So all right,
Speaker 1: huge influx of interest over the past couple of weeks,
Speaker 1: which is fantastic. We're a fairly new company. We got
Speaker 1: the market two years ago in March of Our growth
Speaker 1: was up you know, over thirty x year over year
Speaker 1: twenty but some of that lot of small numbers got
Speaker 1: it fantastic. Corey, We gotta run. Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: Corey Clipston, he's CEO at Swan Bitcoin, joining us on
Speaker 1: the phone from l A. You're listening to Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Quick Takes Tim Stenovich on Bloomberg Radio. But you might
Speaker 1: recall with it yesterday day before NFP. We joked earlier
Speaker 1: this week with Mike McKee that NFP stood for not
Speaker 1: focused on payrolls, and yet this morning strong report did
Speaker 1: remind us once again about the strength and tightness of
Speaker 1: today's US labor market. Tim six seventy eight thousand jobs
Speaker 1: created last month, nearly every sector seeing gains, the unemployment rate,
Speaker 1: Carol dropping below four percent to three percent. Well, we
Speaker 1: welcome former US Labor Secretary and former chair of the
Speaker 1: Democratic National Committee. He's now running to be governor of Maryland.
Speaker 1: He's also co chair of American Bridge twenty one Century.
Speaker 1: We are delighted to have with us Tom Perez. He's
Speaker 1: on the phone from Chacoma Park, Maryland. Tom, nice to
Speaker 1: have you here with us. Um, let's do there is
Speaker 1: so much going on, but let's let's get you first.
Speaker 1: The Job's report. Uh, certainly something that in a normal
Speaker 1: week we would have been focused from Monday, and we
Speaker 1: talked about it a little bit. But obviously, as you
Speaker 1: would imagine, what's going on in Ukraine, UH is certainly
Speaker 1: front and center. We'll talk about that in a moment.
Speaker 1: But when you look at the US labor market, what
Speaker 1: jumps out for you in terms of those longer trends
Speaker 1: that stay with us? Right? I mean this, this month's
Speaker 1: report was a great report. Uh, what's one month never
Speaker 1: makes a trend, But when you look back at the
Speaker 1: last year, it's pretty remarkable. Uh. We saw the economy
Speaker 1: grow by seven million jobs last year, the fastest rate
Speaker 1: in forty nine years. Uh. The unemployment rate dropped, as
Speaker 1: you said, to three point eight percent. And one thing
Speaker 1: I learned long ago, the unemployment rate can go down
Speaker 1: for good reasons and it can go down for bad reasons.
Speaker 1: Last month, the unemployment rate went down for good reasons
Speaker 1: because people were getting jobs in the marketplace. I'm haartened
Speaker 1: to see that female labor force, the patient is moving up.
Speaker 1: It was at its lowest level in decades January. It's
Speaker 1: inching back up. We still have more work to do there. Uh,
Speaker 1: this is a resilient economy. I mean, we we have
Speaker 1: a remarkable array of forces, a global pandemic, the excess
Speaker 1: of of Putin, and and the tension that puts on
Speaker 1: our global economy. And yet you see what happened last month,
Speaker 1: and UH inflation is a real concern, there's no doubt
Speaker 1: about it. But one thing I would ask your listeners
Speaker 1: to remember, and I remember vividly when I was Labor Secretary,
Speaker 1: the challenge that was the vexing challenge for us was
Speaker 1: the long term unemployed. The reason we had such a
Speaker 1: high concentration in of long term unemployed was because the
Speaker 1: stimulus bill back in two thousand and nine. It was
Speaker 1: as much as the politics permitted at that point, but frankly,
Speaker 1: it wasn't enough. And the fact that this time around
Speaker 1: lawmakers went to school on the lessons of the Great Recession,
Speaker 1: that was a really important lesson, because I would nobody
Speaker 1: wants to see inflation. It's a real challenge. UM, it's
Speaker 1: a real issue. But I tell you, UM, I dealt
Speaker 1: with the plight of the long term unemployed, and we
Speaker 1: don't have that because we had a UM. The American
Speaker 1: Rescue Plan and by Parts and Infrastructure Bill are sufficiently
Speaker 1: muscular so that we were able to climb back faster.
Speaker 1: But tom wasn't too much because inflation is running so rampant,
Speaker 1: the highest in forty years. And and look, we're still
Speaker 1: not back to pre pandemic levels of workers in the
Speaker 1: United States. Well, we expect to be back to pre
Speaker 1: pandemic levels by the end of which is uh, pretty remarkable.
Speaker 1: Last year President Biden grew the economy by seven million
Speaker 1: jobs at the fastest rate in forty nine years. If
Speaker 1: there's a friend of mine at least ruled from the
Speaker 1: Economic Policy Institute, I saw on Twitter today she had
Speaker 1: a chart about the length of time it took to
Speaker 1: recover in the Great Recession, the length of time it
Speaker 1: took to recover in this post pandemic, or well, we
Speaker 1: hope to be post pandemic in the naza distant future. Uh.
Speaker 1: And it's night and day. Uh. And so we can
Speaker 1: always and we must always look back and learn the lessons.
Speaker 1: But I think the lesson that was taken, which was
Speaker 1: an important lesson, was that, um, we need a more
Speaker 1: we needed a more muscular um investment. And you know,
Speaker 1: the the Infrastructure Bill, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, UM it's
Speaker 1: long overdue. It's the most this is the most money
Speaker 1: spent on this since Eisenhower, and um, everyone will benefit
Speaker 1: from that. Well. The unemployee rate declining broadly among all
Speaker 1: racial and ethnic groups as well, jobs rate among Asian
Speaker 1: and Hispanic workers dropping point five per image point, while
Speaker 1: that of Black Americans falling point three point UM. So
Speaker 1: when you look at it, and we've heard FIT Chief J.
Speaker 1: Powell Tom talk about the importance of inclusion when it
Speaker 1: comes to the bounce back after the pandemic in the
Speaker 1: in the labor force. Are you comfortable with what you're
Speaker 1: seeing among minorities and the diversity of what's happening in
Speaker 1: the labor force. In terms of improvements, we we always
Speaker 1: have room for improvement there. I'm hartened to see that
Speaker 1: it was broad based. I am still I look at
Speaker 1: African American unemployment rates. H it's still uh two times
Speaker 1: the white unemployment rate, right, um, And so we have
Speaker 1: more work to do there. And and that remains so
Speaker 1: much of the unfinished business of this recovery. And that's
Speaker 1: been a challenge for a number of years. And that's
Speaker 1: why why is that Because it's certainly something you guys
Speaker 1: were dealing with and I feel like it's administration after administration.
Speaker 1: Why can't we impy? Well, I think we have to
Speaker 1: make very very um uh like he here in Maryland.
Speaker 1: You know, we have a blueprint for educational reform that
Speaker 1: is designed to ensure that no matter where you live,
Speaker 1: you have access to a world class education. And we
Speaker 1: have historically, UM all too frequently underinvested in the educational
Speaker 1: infrastructure in UH communities of color, and UH we pay
Speaker 1: a price for that. Our blueprint here in Maryland is
Speaker 1: all about making sure from cradle through career that we're
Speaker 1: preparing people everywhere to succeed. And I think we have
Speaker 1: to understand that civil rights still remains a big part
Speaker 1: of the unfinished business of America. And when we invest
Speaker 1: in UM black communities and other communities of color, I
Speaker 1: think we will yield that return. And when we invest in,
Speaker 1: for instance, we're gonna have a energy infrastructure here with
Speaker 1: offshore wind in Maryland and elsewhere, and we've got to
Speaker 1: make sure that UM those jobs, and those are thirty
Speaker 1: union jobs, right, that we're building an infrastructure in the
Speaker 1: career and technical education so that those jobs are accessible
Speaker 1: UH in every community. To do it, we want to
Speaker 1: tap into you've gotta be a and international relations and
Speaker 1: political science, and we've got to tim tap into what
Speaker 1: Tom has has to say about what's going on in
Speaker 1: Ukraine right now. Yeah. Tom, we've been covering the humanitarian
Speaker 1: situation closely. We've been covering the economics effects, the economic
Speaker 1: effects and of course the market effects of Russia's invasion
Speaker 1: of Ukraine. And I was talking to Carol earlier and
Speaker 1: I said, you know, when we heard the administration policymakers
Speaker 1: talking about the inflation that we've seen of late, it's
Speaker 1: really been a story that they're telling about a demand shock,
Speaker 1: but that seemed to shift in the last ten days
Speaker 1: with the supply shock elements of Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
Speaker 1: with potentially getting cut off from Russian oil to Biden
Speaker 1: administration thinking about that, Um, how does the how does
Speaker 1: the administration get inflation under control when they're seeing shocks
Speaker 1: in the supply side and on the demand side. Well,
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, the images out of Ukraine are
Speaker 1: indeed horrifying, and innocent civilians are being targeted, lives are
Speaker 1: being lost. The refugee Cristi is unlike anything we've seen
Speaker 1: world War two. Um, and and Putin started this war
Speaker 1: and he needs to end it. And uh. There, I
Speaker 1: have a student that I talked to literally yesterday, a
Speaker 1: former student of mine who did Peace Corps for two
Speaker 1: years in Ukraine, and she was in tears. She just
Speaker 1: got back your year or so ago. And you know, there,
Speaker 1: the the efforts to isolate the Russian dictatorship are compelling,
Speaker 1: they are essential. And um, will that have an adverse
Speaker 1: impact on prices at the pump? Very likely it could,
Speaker 1: um and will um, But as I watch the heroism
Speaker 1: of of people in Ukraine, and I take a step
Speaker 1: back and I examine what's going on. Uh, this is
Speaker 1: a moment where we must come together as a global community,
Speaker 1: understanding that it will have economic impact. Here the President
Speaker 1: outline steps he's taken to reduce the cost of prescription
Speaker 1: drugs and and childcare and other things. But I as
Speaker 1: I look at the moment at hand, and I recognize
Speaker 1: that many people, so many people around the country are
Speaker 1: living you know, week the week here. Um. But this
Speaker 1: is a humanitarian crisis unlike anything we've seen since World
Speaker 1: War two, and um, and we need to come together
Speaker 1: as a global community. And and and our economy has
Speaker 1: proven resilience. Look at the top numbers. To day, we're
Speaker 1: begandering through a thicket of unprecedented challenges and we continue
Speaker 1: to grow. Hey, Tom, just got about a month. A month.
Speaker 1: I wish we had a month. I was still to
Speaker 1: talk with you, but we have just about a minute
Speaker 1: left here, and I do wonder, UM, what we look back.
Speaker 1: Is this a moment in time where in terms of
Speaker 1: the global economy, in terms of geopolitical relations, Russia is
Speaker 1: going to be squeezed out in on its own probably
Speaker 1: longer term. Well, I think so. And uh, I think
Speaker 1: you will see at some point in the not so
Speaker 1: distant future that the International Criminal Court is going to
Speaker 1: announce an investigation, a formal investigation, um, not just an investigation,
Speaker 1: but a prosecution for war times violations by Putin and
Speaker 1: his regime. UM. And I think that's something that has
Speaker 1: to happen. And we need to keep this uh pressure up.
Speaker 1: And I know it's going to be difficult and it's
Speaker 1: going to have some impact, but UM, there are just forces.
Speaker 1: We have a democracy recession around the world. Authoritarianism cannot
Speaker 1: be the wave of the future. UH, this is a
Speaker 1: real moment of of peril. And UH we have to
Speaker 1: come together as a global community, just like we did
Speaker 1: um in World War Two, and just like we have
Speaker 1: in other moments in our global journey to form a
Speaker 1: more perfect global union. Wow, Um, Tom, I'm I'm wondering.
Speaker 1: You know, when we when we think about what's been
Speaker 1: happening in Ukraine, the Russian invasion there, how do you
Speaker 1: think it ends? I don't I if I knew that,
Speaker 1: I don't know the answer, and I don't know that
Speaker 1: anyone knows, uh the answer, because we can't get into
Speaker 1: Putin's head right now. Uh, he needs to back off.
Speaker 1: But it just seems like with every passing day, Um,
Speaker 1: his intent appears to be doubling down. And that's why
Speaker 1: the global community needs to come together. Well, I must say,
Speaker 1: you know, after nine eleven, we came together as a nation. Um.
Speaker 1: We understood that we needed to come together as a nation.
Speaker 1: And I hope we will do that. I. You know,
Speaker 1: some of the things I periodically read um here at
Speaker 1: home are just really puzzling and and and disappointing. I
Speaker 1: hope we will come together, um, because this person is
Speaker 1: a thug and we need to understand that. Tom just
Speaker 1: got about thirty seconds left here. I do feel like
Speaker 1: we are at a junct, a point where there's a
Speaker 1: lot of demarcation when it comes to democracy versus those
Speaker 1: countries that don't embrace democracy. Does China need to be
Speaker 1: on good hard or do you see that as a
Speaker 1: different situation, And again, just got about thirty seconds or so. Well,
Speaker 1: I hope I'll be interested to see what happens in China,
Speaker 1: because um, I think the Chinese government needs to understand
Speaker 1: the swift and certain reaction of the global community to
Speaker 1: the events in Russia. If you attempt to do the
Speaker 1: same thing, we will deal with you in the same way.
Speaker 1: And I hope that what's happening right now is a
Speaker 1: cautionary tale for uh, the regime in China. So delighted
Speaker 1: to get some time with you, Tom, Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: Tom Perez, former US Labor Secretary, co chair at American
Speaker 1: Bridge twenty one century, joining us on the phone from Maryland.
Speaker 1: Tom be well, thank you, Roam morow. Yeah, but you
Speaker 1: let me drive? Oh no, no, no, please, I want
Speaker 1: to drive. It's a good question. Drive to the cloth radio.
Speaker 1: Gotta say, this was a jam packed week, we know,
Speaker 1: and it was an important week. It was a heavy week.
Speaker 1: It was a volatile week, and we certainly saw that
Speaker 1: play out in the financial markets. And here we are
Speaker 1: bouncing around again on a Friday as we head into
Speaker 1: a weekend with as we heard from Charlie down more
Speaker 1: than one percent, about the S and P and the
Speaker 1: DAW the NAZAC down two point two percent, which maybe
Speaker 1: explains why Doug Cioca's research note to us was pretty thick.
Speaker 1: There was a lot there. All right, Let's bring in
Speaker 1: Doug Cioka, CEO and partner at Cavar Capital Partners. They've
Speaker 1: got our billion in assets under management. On the phone
Speaker 1: from Leewood, Kansas. We're having some fun with you. When
Speaker 1: I was getting my file from our producer Paul Brandon, like, wow,
Speaker 1: that's a lot from Doug. But it was a luck
Speaker 1: going on. Doug. How are you? How are you good?
Speaker 1: To have you here? So we know we understand. I
Speaker 1: think it's safe to say, right some of the financial
Speaker 1: moves that we're seeing, whether it's energy, whether it's defense,
Speaker 1: whether it's travel. In terms of what's going on in
Speaker 1: the marketplaces this week, you know, the movement that we've
Speaker 1: seen in yield. What is it that's I don't know
Speaker 1: most important interesting to you and the investments that you
Speaker 1: need to make for clients. Doug. Yeah, so it's been
Speaker 1: it's been a really a crazy year, right, And this
Speaker 1: this week, as you mentioned, kind of gives contextually um
Speaker 1: coming where we were last Friday with an eight point
Speaker 1: moving the down and then to have but basically all
Speaker 1: but the four but all but one down day this week.
Speaker 1: So much is hinding is hinging obviously on what's taking
Speaker 1: place to you politically, and it is obscuring everything else
Speaker 1: and oftentimes and and there is a positive aspect of
Speaker 1: of what's taking place in the form of indiscriminate selling, right,
Speaker 1: And the positive part is that you do have great
Speaker 1: companies that are treated like very poor stocks. And that's
Speaker 1: a condition that doesn't tend to persist for very long, right,
Speaker 1: So trying to be opportunistic and look a little bit
Speaker 1: around the corner, right, We do a lot of quantity
Speaker 1: quantitative screening for a stock port playos and evaluations tend
Speaker 1: to weight sectors accordingly, and you know, interestingly, like right now,
Speaker 1: large industry groups represented by our screens our financial stocks,
Speaker 1: technology stocks, and healthcare stocks, and these screens try to
Speaker 1: eliminate like the profitists and super speculves of the companies
Speaker 1: as much as they require stronger alying fundamentals and empisides
Speaker 1: evidenturary aspects of the company's profitability and not just aspirations.
Speaker 1: What does that tell you, though, that you've got a
Speaker 1: cyclical financials, defensive technology, and a combination healthcare all screening
Speaker 1: positively right, give us an indication there is broad based
Speaker 1: value right now in US equities and that for the
Speaker 1: long term gets to very constructive and excited. So healthcare,
Speaker 1: tech and what else? Was it? Financials? Okay? Okay? So yeah,
Speaker 1: So are we you know here we are eating the
Speaker 1: Nasdaq composite down eighteen percent from its all time highs
Speaker 1: um the s and P five hundred down what this year?
Speaker 1: You know, close to nine just this year alone. Are
Speaker 1: we at levels where you're seeing values? Are you ready
Speaker 1: to go in and by the death? Oh? Absolutely, Tim,
Speaker 1: I mean we we We mentioned in this client letter
Speaker 1: that there's this old investment adage related to armed conflict, right,
Speaker 1: and it goes like this, right by on the cannons
Speaker 1: and selling the trumpets. And basically, when ambiguity is high
Speaker 1: and sentiment is low, prices tend to go down and
Speaker 1: they offer interesting entry points, and we always say that
Speaker 1: that comes across it is sounding maybe a bit heartless,
Speaker 1: and that's not the intent, right, It's more that you're
Speaker 1: channeling kind of accommodation of nationalism and optimism and capitalism
Speaker 1: and public private sector unite and the whole common purposes
Speaker 1: resolution and kind of a modern day adaptation of cannons
Speaker 1: and trumpets would be be opportunistic within your objectives, right, Price,
Speaker 1: this location and volatility are generally short term nature. Guessing
Speaker 1: when they will end is impossible. Knowing they will end
Speaker 1: is responsible. So we try to retain an adherence to
Speaker 1: kind of well designed asset allocation as a key to
Speaker 1: long term investing success, but at the same time as
Speaker 1: growing ample resources out of the path of harm, that's
Speaker 1: the key to short term peace of mind. So we've
Speaker 1: said for a long time, invest for long term, managed
Speaker 1: for the short term. But they're undeniably value in this
Speaker 1: market and gin evaluations to the second. But a lot
Speaker 1: of people are comparing this period to sort of the
Speaker 1: prior geopolitical uh influence negative on the market, which was
Speaker 1: the pandemic, and we're now at pre pandemic levels of
Speaker 1: of of valuation. Multiply the s and T. But back
Speaker 1: then SMP orrings, we're gonna go maybe four or five
Speaker 1: percent in two thousand and nineteen and twenty. Now, the expectation,
Speaker 1: even though last year ye ever hear, is to grow
Speaker 1: over So you have a valuation that's cheaper and a
Speaker 1: and a growth rate that's four or five times we're
Speaker 1: looking at two years ago. All right, did you about
Speaker 1: arnies growth rate? Yes? So you know what's interesting, Um,
Speaker 1: that makes sense to me, logical, right, and you start
Speaker 1: and there's a point where you have to step back
Speaker 1: and get away from the headlines and the volatility and
Speaker 1: just stay. This is something Martin Adams does for a
Speaker 1: Bloomberg intelligence, like, let's look at the fundamentals, whether it's earnings,
Speaker 1: whether it's margin expansion or you know whatever. What's interesting is, though,
Speaker 1: if we go into recession and often in a FED
Speaker 1: tightening cycle, it's not a guarantee, but it's tricky for
Speaker 1: the Fed to get it right and not either overshoot.
Speaker 1: And earlier this week there was US economic data for
Speaker 1: the first quarter of two has been so weak that
Speaker 1: the Atlanta Feds GDP now tracker showed a zero percent
Speaker 1: reading for GDP growth based on data release through that
Speaker 1: point was earlier this week. If we get a recession,
Speaker 1: does that change it or if you if we get
Speaker 1: a recession, do you anticipate it's kind of a touch
Speaker 1: and go and we move off of it pretty quickly. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think we would move off of it pretty quickly.
Speaker 1: And people talk about recessions in terms of depths and
Speaker 1: what it will be really deeper, shallow. I think it
Speaker 1: would be shallow and quick. I think the exacting its
Speaker 1: influences that are headwinds for economic growth could get us
Speaker 1: into a technical definition of a recession. And I put
Speaker 1: that as a very low probability of a couple of
Speaker 1: consecutive quarters of negative GDP because when you look at
Speaker 1: an economy right now that has amazing underlying consumer strength,
Speaker 1: partially a function of a great job market, partially a
Speaker 1: function of persistently low interest rates for a while, partially
Speaker 1: of a function of an economy that is this in
Speaker 1: a transition spawned by entrepreneurial opportunities. And you add that
Speaker 1: to the valuation of the market, and then you overlay
Speaker 1: that with the job number that we got this morning,
Speaker 1: right which was so wonderful because it was inflation neutral,
Speaker 1: but economically positive, and it's it's not meaningful today, right
Speaker 1: because it's a geopolitical backdrop, but you looked at the
Speaker 1: client year over your average hourly earnings. That's really significant
Speaker 1: and that it suggests that the said is not facing
Speaker 1: this immediate wage price spiral that could be very very
Speaker 1: sessionary in its form, and that's not the case right now,
Speaker 1: and that's very positive. I just want to point out
Speaker 1: because I'm watching the equity trade. We've just got about
Speaker 1: four and a half minutes left here, and we're seeing
Speaker 1: some buying into the clothes and we talked about this.
Speaker 1: We're still down across the board, we're off our lows,
Speaker 1: but particularly on the SMP and the DOW, we're seeing
Speaker 1: it move up towards its higher levels of the day
Speaker 1: NOWASA trying to but nonetheless we are seeing some buying
Speaker 1: into the close here. Do does that do those concerns?
Speaker 1: Are those still eased for you, Doug, despite the fact
Speaker 1: that we're seeing this supply shock right now as a
Speaker 1: result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I mean, we talked
Speaker 1: earlier about the rising grain prices and wheat prices this week,
Speaker 1: and that's going to hit consumers really hard. Yeah, no questions.
Speaker 1: The whole inflationary aspect is concerning. And again I do
Speaker 1: think that's what gives the FED the capability because of
Speaker 1: these exogenous headwinds, that they can modify the change rates
Speaker 1: in the implementation of tighter monetary policy, the telegraphing capability
Speaker 1: of doing so, and being data dependent, which they by
Speaker 1: requirement are, I think that is going to give the
Speaker 1: economy the necessary runway and clearance to make modifications as
Speaker 1: best they can now. Tim If this conflict extends weeks
Speaker 1: and months, then there's gonna have to be potentially just
Speaker 1: the opposite of what the peasants tending to do, and
Speaker 1: we were worried they were gonna have to do that
Speaker 1: over the weekend. With the swift messaging system, sanctions is
Speaker 1: actually even expand the balance sheet. They don't have a
Speaker 1: lot of gun. They don't have a lot of howder
Speaker 1: the gun, But if you need to hopefully have enough,
Speaker 1: right well, data dependent, right flexible. We heard Jamie Diamond
Speaker 1: saying the Fed's got to be flexible, and we have
Speaker 1: seen the Fed certainly watch the headlines and be data dependent. Um,
Speaker 1: Doug Cioca, thank you so much. Have a great weekend. Douglas,
Speaker 1: partner of our Capital Partners, on the phone from Leewood, Kansas.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast
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