WEBVTT - U.S. Job Gains Accelerate While Wage Growth Slows Sharply 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.440 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:04.480 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.320 --> 0:00:09.840 you the latest news from the world to business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.680 plus technology, politics, economics, all purtnising the power of Business 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:17.159 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:20.440 analysts in more than twenty countries. You can download Bloomberg 0:00:20.440 --> 0:00:23.600 Business Weekend iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You can 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:25.760 also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern 0:00:25.800 --> 0:00:28.680 Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search 0:00:28.800 --> 0:00:32.040 Bloomberg Clovel News. So much going on throughout the week, 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:35.640 and of course it's continuing on this Friday. Upside surprise. 0:00:35.720 --> 0:00:38.080 Let's get back to one of the big stories of 0:00:38.120 --> 0:00:40.240 the day, and normally would be our top story about 0:00:40.440 --> 0:00:43.720 costs of the ongoing war in Ukraine. That is certainly 0:00:43.720 --> 0:00:46.080 front and center. But let's not forget we did get 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:48.680 that upside surprise from the US Labor Department this morning. 0:00:48.800 --> 0:00:51.400 US hiring booming in the month of February. What weight 0:00:51.479 --> 0:00:55.520 growth ooh slowing? Although Elena saying of our Bloomberg intelligence team, 0:00:55.560 --> 0:00:58.279 maybe not something to be too concerned about, but nonetheless 0:00:58.280 --> 0:01:00.880 safe to say strong jobs report. Yeah, the number we 0:01:01.200 --> 0:01:04.040 got was six seventy eight thousand. The change in non 0:01:04.120 --> 0:01:07.280 farm payrolls that was expected by surveyces by Economist, survey 0:01:07.319 --> 0:01:10.760 by Bloomberg was fo three thousand. Person we go to 0:01:11.200 --> 0:01:14.280 oftentimes to talk about the economy and jobs is Becky Francoitz, 0:01:14.319 --> 0:01:17.360 President a Manpower North Manpower Group North America. She joins 0:01:17.400 --> 0:01:20.119 us on the phone from Chicago. Uh, Becky, I want 0:01:20.120 --> 0:01:22.360 to get your thoughts on digging a little deeper into 0:01:22.360 --> 0:01:26.000 this payrolls report. Uh, what about the wage growth not 0:01:26.080 --> 0:01:28.200 growing to the extent that it should in such a 0:01:28.200 --> 0:01:31.160 tight labor market? Is that something to be concerned about? Yeah, 0:01:31.200 --> 0:01:33.640 I would agree with your analysts. Actually, we have seen 0:01:34.040 --> 0:01:38.760 really remarkable wage expansion, particularly in the blue collar segment 0:01:38.800 --> 0:01:40.959 of the economy, and so it's not it's not something 0:01:41.000 --> 0:01:43.839 I would be too concerned about at this point. I think, 0:01:43.959 --> 0:01:45.520 you know, we today is a very good day for 0:01:45.520 --> 0:01:48.600 the American labor market. We should feel confident in our 0:01:48.640 --> 0:01:51.720 employer's ability to navigate and certainties and adapt for change. 0:01:51.840 --> 0:01:55.400 And I think that the lack of wage progress is 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:57.440 u is a point in time, and will likely continue 0:01:57.480 --> 0:01:59.600 to see promise in that arena as we go forward. 0:01:59.680 --> 0:02:01.680 But why shouldn't we be concerned about it? And what 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:03.160 makes you think we're going to see progress? Is it 0:02:03.280 --> 0:02:06.160 just because of the basics tenants of supply and demand. 0:02:06.160 --> 0:02:07.880 If it's a tight labor market, people are companies are 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:09.560 gonna have to pay more to tract and retain talent. 0:02:10.120 --> 0:02:11.639 You know, I would say it's it's likely due to 0:02:11.680 --> 0:02:13.920 the large number of jobs created in blue collar sectors 0:02:13.919 --> 0:02:18.000 where we've already seen significant wage increases before the pandemic. Again, 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:20.320 it's not you know, I've I've really been grateful to 0:02:20.360 --> 0:02:22.680 see the wage growth that we've experienced in the economy. 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:26.760 But we know the employers are looking at significant wage increases, 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:29.640 are looking at full compensation, and so what what will 0:02:29.639 --> 0:02:32.200 would be required going forward to attract workers is what 0:02:32.240 --> 0:02:34.400 they'll do. And you know, so I think for the 0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:37.360 month it's a blip. We've seen amazing wage expansion, and 0:02:37.400 --> 0:02:40.040 I anticipate in a tight labor market because you know, 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:43.600 rest assured demand is incredibly strong and I love Caroll 0:02:43.680 --> 0:02:46.800 your word booming. I mean it was a booming labor report, 0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:50.080 and demand continues to be strong, and that really is 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:52.080 what we're focused on. And if, if, if wages need 0:02:52.120 --> 0:02:54.280 to expand to attract workers, that's what will happen. I 0:02:54.320 --> 0:02:57.040 was also very pleased to see work for participation expanse. 0:02:57.120 --> 0:02:59.600 That was a very very good isn't that interesting for 0:02:59.800 --> 0:03:01.560 every He was saying, Okay, we really kind of feel 0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:04.520 like everybody who wants a job has one. But that 0:03:05.120 --> 0:03:09.000 move up was was um significant to agree. Becky. Hey, 0:03:09.040 --> 0:03:11.400 one thing I wanted to ask you though about wages. 0:03:11.760 --> 0:03:16.040 We've got to think, is it states this year that 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:19.200 are raising the minimum wage? Isn't that going to provide 0:03:19.280 --> 0:03:22.760 some support and some floor in terms of um, you know, 0:03:22.880 --> 0:03:26.440 pushing wages higher overall? Yeah, Carol, I would say, is 0:03:26.520 --> 0:03:28.880 we started started this year? You know, people talked about 0:03:28.919 --> 0:03:30.880 new beginnings in a new year, and I was on 0:03:30.880 --> 0:03:34.240 the record talking about endings, and I think the end 0:03:34.280 --> 0:03:37.160 of twenty one and going into mark the end of 0:03:37.200 --> 0:03:40.320 the concept of minimum wage. It's not really minimum or 0:03:40.360 --> 0:03:43.600 maximum wage. It's required wage. What's required to get people, 0:03:43.920 --> 0:03:46.480 you know, to come off the sidelines first and then 0:03:46.520 --> 0:03:49.040 to come to work for you. And so yes, I 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:51.080 you know, I do think we'll see you know, use 0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:53.280 the word floor. I don't I don't know. I don't 0:03:53.320 --> 0:03:55.120 know if if we could talk about floors and it's 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:57.680 I think we have to talk about what's required. So 0:03:57.720 --> 0:04:00.160 you said required minimum wage, and that would just it's 0:04:00.200 --> 0:04:03.680 required wage. YEA interesting, Okay, what about when it comes 0:04:03.720 --> 0:04:09.880 to participation among women, especially women of prime labor age. Um, 0:04:09.960 --> 0:04:12.160 we not only saw the clients they're in total in 0:04:12.200 --> 0:04:15.560 total for for those women, but also for black women 0:04:15.680 --> 0:04:17.880 and Asian women as well, and for women overall. It 0:04:17.920 --> 0:04:21.000 was the first decline in participation that we saw in 0:04:21.000 --> 0:04:22.600 in five months. What do you read how do you 0:04:22.600 --> 0:04:25.080 read into that? Yeah, so you know it's it's ironic 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:27.000 to him as we As we're right ahead of International 0:04:27.040 --> 0:04:31.240 Women's Day, obviously we're keeping a close look on gender 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:33.359 in the workforce. And one of the things that we 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:36.200 know from our real time data is demand is on 0:04:36.320 --> 0:04:38.880 fire and I T and Tech that for most of 0:04:39.240 --> 0:04:42.039 the growth SITH and yet women are really underrepresented in 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:44.000 that segment of the workforce. And so in fact they 0:04:44.040 --> 0:04:48.200 represent about of that segment I'm compared with over fifty 0:04:48.240 --> 0:04:50.520 percent in leisure and hospitality, and so one of the 0:04:50.600 --> 0:04:52.960 things we have to make sure is that women have 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:57.279 the skills and are upskilling and interested in moving into 0:04:57.360 --> 0:04:59.200 some of those booming areas of the economy. Like I 0:04:59.320 --> 0:05:01.440 t so, I think that it's one um the other, 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:03.240 I would say, And I heard you all talking about it. 0:05:03.520 --> 0:05:06.480 Childcare continues to be a challenge. Like we think that's reopened, 0:05:06.560 --> 0:05:09.039 it's not. It's not completely reopen. And that's been a 0:05:09.080 --> 0:05:12.400 real challenge. And I was very, very disappointed to see 0:05:12.440 --> 0:05:16.720 the African American female participation or unemployment excuse me, um 0:05:16.760 --> 0:05:20.920 go up. That was a very disappointing number. Yes, right, 0:05:21.200 --> 0:05:23.360 and you do wonder we know, you know, FED Chief 0:05:23.400 --> 0:05:25.960 j Palace talked about making it inclusive when it comes 0:05:26.000 --> 0:05:28.760 to this recovery. But you do wonder. You know, Becky, 0:05:28.920 --> 0:05:30.800 you're smart, you run a company. You're looking at what's 0:05:30.800 --> 0:05:32.360 going on the labor market, but you also see the 0:05:32.400 --> 0:05:35.880 inflationary pressures that are out there. Are you concerned that 0:05:36.000 --> 0:05:39.800 the FED will risk doing something too aggressively that might 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:44.280 undermine ultimately the US labor market. Well, you know, it's 0:05:44.320 --> 0:05:46.080 it's a funny thing, Cheryl is one of the things 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:48.159 I haven't been asked recently, is, hey, you know, what's 0:05:48.160 --> 0:05:50.839 the different definition of full employment? Because we're now down 0:05:50.839 --> 0:05:53.720 to three. You know, we've all had a new definition 0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:55.880 of that. So what I would say is, I, you know, 0:05:55.920 --> 0:05:57.640 I'm not an expert on the FED. I hope that 0:05:57.680 --> 0:06:00.279 they take a broad look. But what we do, you know, 0:06:00.520 --> 0:06:04.440 is this, this concern and realization of inflation is bringing 0:06:04.480 --> 0:06:06.760 some people off the sidelines. And so as we see 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:09.560 the workforce start bouncing back because people need to work, 0:06:09.640 --> 0:06:12.880 as as prices go up, um, you know, wages continue 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:14.680 to go up. We don't. We don't want to see 0:06:14.680 --> 0:06:17.880 a wage of spiral happen where they continue to escalate. Um. 0:06:17.880 --> 0:06:20.280 But the FED will likely have to act. Becky really quickly, 0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:22.520 just got about twenty seconds here. If you have to 0:06:22.520 --> 0:06:24.520 pick one sector where you're seeing a ton of hiring 0:06:24.560 --> 0:06:27.720 going on, where is it? It's I T software developers. 0:06:27.839 --> 0:06:30.000 All right, good to know. Hey, listen, be well, have 0:06:30.000 --> 0:06:32.680 a great and safe weekend. Becky Franco, its president of 0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:35.680 Manpower Group North America, on the phone from Chicago. I T. 0:06:35.839 --> 0:06:37.440 We're talking a lot about it this. Yeah, I was 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:39.360 just thinking that Carol, you're reading my mind. If we 0:06:39.400 --> 0:06:43.360 think about the impact that the war in Ukraine has 0:06:43.440 --> 0:06:47.359 on information technology, so many startups and established companies to 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:51.919 have offices that have I T. Tech talent in those areas. Um, 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:54.400 how's it affected. Well, you know, we talk about the 0:06:54.440 --> 0:06:59.160 global supply chain, we talk about our interconnectedness, right, and 0:06:59.200 --> 0:07:02.680 that include our global workforce, right Like it's it's just 0:07:02.880 --> 0:07:06.640 that's the world today, the reality. This is Bloomberg Business 0:07:06.680 --> 0:07:10.440 Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:13.840 on Bloomberg Radio. Well, the new issue of Bloomberg Business 0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:15.720 Week gets out. It's at Bloomberg dot com, is this 0:07:15.760 --> 0:07:18.840 Week dot com, on news stands and on the Bloomberg terminal. 0:07:19.120 --> 0:07:22.760 It's about how to punish Russian Vladimir Putin and how 0:07:22.800 --> 0:07:26.000 the world has turned to finance, making it into a 0:07:26.000 --> 0:07:28.480 weapon of war, with the Russian Central Bank really becoming 0:07:28.720 --> 0:07:32.440 the main target. Tim. Yeah, Matt's story, Matt Bosler story. 0:07:32.480 --> 0:07:34.840 That is it's featured the new issue of Bloomberg Business 0:07:34.840 --> 0:07:37.680 Week magazine. It's available now on newsstands, on the Bloomberg 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:40.880 and at Bloomberg dot com, Slash business Week. It's a 0:07:41.400 --> 0:07:45.000 really really important story. It's a really important issue to cover. 0:07:45.200 --> 0:07:48.200 Is incredibly powerful. Joe Weber joins us as the editor 0:07:48.200 --> 0:07:49.960 of Bloomberg Business. We he joined us now on the 0:07:50.000 --> 0:07:52.640 access line from Brooklyn. Joel, It's fair to say the 0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:56.680 moves that we've seen from the European Union, the United States, 0:07:56.920 --> 0:08:00.880 handful of America's allies in Asia in the last seven 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:06.000 days or so have been pretty unprecedented, totally unprecedented, and 0:08:06.000 --> 0:08:08.640 and even just the sort of the about face that 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:12.560 the Germany UM on its own happens, you know, that 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:17.000 unwinds you know, more than fifty years, sixty years of 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:22.360 policy UM and all because of obviously uh Putin's aggression 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:26.280 UM in Ukraine. UM. The the idea that we kind 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:28.800 of set out here was that we've we've really never 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:34.000 seen UM the financial the finance system UM turned into 0:08:34.440 --> 0:08:37.640 UM a weapon UM, and with the intent of obviously 0:08:37.720 --> 0:08:41.880 crippling Russia and and making Russia pull back. And clearly 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:44.600 already even we've we've seen that that strategy may have 0:08:44.640 --> 0:08:47.400 some limitations, but even the nature of of where it 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:51.000 has gotten us too is, you know, in a couple 0:08:51.040 --> 0:08:53.760 of years of just unprecedented, unprecedented, unprecedented, here we are 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:56.760 yet again using the word unprecedented. So so Matt talked 0:08:56.760 --> 0:09:00.320 to us about UM, how it's come to pass and 0:09:00.320 --> 0:09:03.160 and people who you know study this stuff. Um what 0:09:03.160 --> 0:09:05.360 what what do you what did you learn from reporting 0:09:05.360 --> 0:09:08.200 it up? Yeah, So I think one of the keys 0:09:08.240 --> 0:09:11.160 to understanding what's going on here is, um, you know, 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:14.559 looking at the history of central banks can actually help 0:09:14.920 --> 0:09:17.360 you understand this a little bit, right, because central banks, 0:09:17.400 --> 0:09:21.480 going back to their beginning, really have been, um, you know, 0:09:21.720 --> 0:09:23.880 heavily involved in war finance. A lot of them were 0:09:23.920 --> 0:09:26.959 set up, you know, basically for the express purpose of 0:09:27.400 --> 0:09:31.439 financing wars. And so, um, what we have here is 0:09:31.480 --> 0:09:35.240 a situation in which we are bringing down the hammer 0:09:35.360 --> 0:09:38.320 on a central bank, Russia's central bank, in a really 0:09:38.400 --> 0:09:42.920 unprecedented way for a country of Russia's size and importance 0:09:42.920 --> 0:09:44.680 in the global economy. And so if you think of 0:09:44.720 --> 0:09:48.480 the central bank as being kind of a key mechanism 0:09:48.520 --> 0:09:52.120 through which countries have sort of always financed wars, it 0:09:52.200 --> 0:09:55.679 helps explain why, um, you know, the West is going 0:09:55.720 --> 0:09:58.920 after Russia's central bank and why that is so significant. So, 0:09:59.240 --> 0:10:02.320 you know, obviously, the story in Russia over the last 0:10:02.320 --> 0:10:05.680 several years has been one where they have been building 0:10:05.800 --> 0:10:08.880 up foreign exchange reserves to the tune of hundreds of 0:10:08.960 --> 0:10:12.000 billions of dollars um, you know, kind of salting them 0:10:12.000 --> 0:10:14.600 away for a quote unquote rainy day or you know, 0:10:14.720 --> 0:10:18.480 in this case, a military conflict. And uh, they thought 0:10:18.520 --> 0:10:22.160 those reserves were going to be there um and be 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:26.440 able to be utilized to kind of insulate themselves from 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:29.360 the fallout of the blowback if they were to take 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:33.040 a step like this um. And what we're learning over 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:35.760 the last week or so is that's not the case 0:10:36.400 --> 0:10:41.120 because you know, those reserves are largely held in places 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:46.160 like the United States and Europe UM and basically those 0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:49.160 jurisdictions have flipped the switch and said you don't have 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:51.840 access to these anymore. Well, that's what's really cool. There's 0:10:51.840 --> 0:10:55.360 some great stuff, and you reference Bloomberg opinion columnist Matt Levine. 0:10:55.880 --> 0:10:58.800 What's interesting is it's not just about building up reserves 0:10:58.800 --> 0:11:01.559 in it being you know, to entry in the accounting 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:04.320 ledger of the Russian Central Bank. It is about those 0:11:04.320 --> 0:11:08.280 global relationships that the Russian Central Bank had in the 0:11:08.320 --> 0:11:10.640 Russia and Russia as a country had with the rest 0:11:10.640 --> 0:11:14.800 of the world that ultimately really are mattering right now. Yeah, 0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:17.160 it's really interesting to kind of, you know, step back 0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:19.400 from all of the news flow and get a little 0:11:19.400 --> 0:11:21.839 philosophical here on the nature of money, right, because we're 0:11:21.840 --> 0:11:26.280 getting another amazing object lesson in exactly that this week. Right. 0:11:26.320 --> 0:11:29.440 So you know, you can think of politics almost as 0:11:29.440 --> 0:11:32.720 a spectrum, uh, you know, between people who think of 0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:36.600 money as a social relationship um that is, you know, 0:11:36.679 --> 0:11:40.560 basically defined by um, you know, who is willing to 0:11:40.640 --> 0:11:44.360 accept that money, right, versus on the other end of 0:11:44.360 --> 0:11:47.120 the spectrum, people who think of money more as a thing, right, 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:50.120 like the commodity standard, the gold, like something that you 0:11:50.240 --> 0:11:53.880 possess that you can then utilize as you see fit. 0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:56.720 And you know, this is just another example, kind of 0:11:56.760 --> 0:12:00.600 on a global scale of that social character money where 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:03.720 it really does depend on the person on the other 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:07.000 side of the transaction being willing to accept it. And 0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:09.080 so you know, once again we're getting a real lesson 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:10.439 in that. Hey man, I want to go back to 0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:13.080 what you said about salting some of that money away 0:12:13.120 --> 0:12:15.559 over the last few years in order to build these reserves. 0:12:15.760 --> 0:12:18.920 I'm wondering how that exacerbates the hit to Russia's economy 0:12:19.000 --> 0:12:21.960 that this takes, because that money wasn't then put back 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:25.760 into the Russian economy, that's right. Yeah, so you know 0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:28.040 that is the trade off here that they have made, right. 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:31.559 I mean, you could be um, you know, bringing in 0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:34.959 all of this money from exports of your natural resources, 0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:37.760 and you know, one thing you could be doing would 0:12:37.760 --> 0:12:40.760 be to be reinvesting that money into your economy, growing 0:12:40.760 --> 0:12:45.880 your economy, um, you know, building out your consumer base, UM, 0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:48.200 and your industry and so on and so forth, and 0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:51.080 and really modernizing. And that's something that um, you know, 0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:53.920 has been a problem for Russia because, um, you know, 0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:56.480 another aspect of this that we're seeing is now some 0:12:56.559 --> 0:12:58.880 of these export controls that are being put in place 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:02.320 against them. You know, they import a lot of the 0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:07.080 really high tech necessities, UM you know, like things like 0:13:07.120 --> 0:13:08.960 computer chips and so on and so forth that they 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:12.200 need to continue upgrading their military. Well, now the US 0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:15.520 and Europe is slapping bands on exports of that technology 0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:17.760 to Russia, and it's really closing doors for them in 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:19.480 terms of what they're going to be able to do 0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:22.560 going forward. We're now doing the same with um, you know, 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:25.600 high tech oil and gas exports, UM that they would 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:29.120 need to continue you know, upgrading their um, you know, 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:32.480 energy sector, and so that's uh, you know, that's going 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:34.640 to be a big problem for them, and you know, uh, 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:37.439 President Vladimir Putin is kind of saying, well, this is 0:13:37.480 --> 0:13:41.240 an opportunity for us to you know, now, um, increase 0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:44.720 our resiliency and our self reliance by actually developing you know, 0:13:44.800 --> 0:13:46.760 some of those capabilities on our own, but might be 0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:49.880 too too little, too late. Well, incredible story, and there's 0:13:49.880 --> 0:13:52.280 an incredible series of stories that make up the cover 0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:55.440 story this week in Bloomberg Business Week magazine. Highly recommend 0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:58.719 that you check them all out. Uh, that story and 0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:01.199 the others, certainly the magaz being on newsstands, on the 0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:03.520 Bloomberg and a Bloomberg dot com. Also in our weekend 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:05.880 show or thanks to Matt Bosler, fed reporter here at 0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:08.560 Bloomberg along with the editor of Business Week, Jill Weber, 0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:12.720 you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and 0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:17.439 Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Historian The 0:14:17.480 --> 0:14:20.960 Bloomberg though today about the coin based CEO, saying, ordinary 0:14:21.040 --> 0:14:23.920 Russians are using bitcoin as a lifeline now that their 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:26.360 currency has collapsed. There's a lot we're watching in the 0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:29.720 crypto markets as a result of the Russian invasion UH 0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:32.720 into Ukraine and all the financial pushback by the world 0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:34.800 against Russia. Well, let's go deeper into that story with 0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:38.960 Corey Clipston at CEO at Swan Bitcoin. SWAT Swan Bitcoin 0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:41.920 is a financial services provider, is something that helps people 0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:46.520 automate purchasing a bitcoin, like a savings account for example. Corey, 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:49.680 how are you welcome? Thank you so much for having 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:52.400 me out A. Yeah, it's good to speak with you again. Corey. Um, 0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:53.960 you know, it's been a it's been a couple of 0:14:53.960 --> 0:14:56.120 weeks since we last spoken, and I'm wondering how you've 0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:58.800 been watching the events unfold in Ukraine and really how 0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:01.840 that plays out across cryptocurrency. I mean, I was talking 0:15:01.840 --> 0:15:05.200 to somebody earlier today and we were saying, wasn't this 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:09.120 exactly what cryptocurrency was designed for, the facility to facilitate 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:14.960 cross border transactions without a middle person. That's exactly right. 0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:17.960 It really is fascinating to watch this play out in 0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:21.400 real time. The last time that we really saw something 0:15:21.880 --> 0:15:25.240 on the global stage is almost out of memory. It 0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:28.760 was Cyprus in with the b O N and and 0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:31.840 that kind of coincided with the bitcoin bull run and 0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:34.600 that that caught the cohort of people that got interested, 0:15:35.280 --> 0:15:38.680 and it's already been nine years since then, and this 0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:41.680 is obviously of you know, one or two orders of 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:46.120 magnitude larger in global consequence and in the amount of 0:15:46.160 --> 0:15:49.600 attention that it's attracting. And we're getting to see, you know, 0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:54.440 not just aggregated data coming out of the crisis and 0:15:54.480 --> 0:15:57.160 what bitcoin is being used for and how it's being used, 0:15:57.160 --> 0:16:00.800 but also just such a high volume of mechanic outs 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:04.040 and stories coming out. And I'm getting to touch some 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:06.760 of these stories personally, happy to share a couple of them. Well, 0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:08.600 and I want stories, and I want anecdotes. I want 0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:11.160 to know that really what you're seeing on your platform 0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:14.000 that you think is a direct result of what's going 0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:19.160 on in Ukraine and Russia. Yeah. So we are obviously, 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:22.440 as as a company that serves humans all over the world, 0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:25.560 not taking sides, but we are also essentially an open 0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:28.120 platform and will serve anyone that we are not blocked 0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:31.480 from serving. And I will tell you that it appears 0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:35.280 that a little over of the headline volume of donations 0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:39.160 that are being collected in bitcoin are being processed by 0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:43.080 swan and turned into dollars by these these NGOs that 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:46.640 are turning around and paying for aid and things on 0:16:46.680 --> 0:16:49.200 the ground in the Ukraine. So that's one story at 0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:52.560 a platform level. And then you know, as smaller story 0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:57.240 is my co founder of SWAN, Jan Pritsker, who talked 0:16:57.320 --> 0:17:01.920 about the experience of his family leaving Ukraine with only 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:06.040 a hundred dollars worth of goods in and what that 0:17:06.320 --> 0:17:08.919 could have been had they had bitcoin, because they were 0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:11.040 a normal middle class family and could have could have 0:17:11.080 --> 0:17:12.720 been doing just fine had they been able to leave 0:17:12.800 --> 0:17:15.639 with some of their wealth. And you know, right now 0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:20.520 he has extended friends on the ground that can take 0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:24.640 funding right there, no middleman, as you said, don't need 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:26.840 to find an n g O in the US to 0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:30.199 coordinate with an NGO in the Ukraine. There is a 0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:33.399 group of women in Kiev that are trusted through the 0:17:33.440 --> 0:17:37.800 network that are taking bitcoin donations directly to the people 0:17:37.840 --> 0:17:41.399 who need them right now today, and you know, I 0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:44.800 and others can can just make donations in that method. 0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:47.320 It really is fascinating. But coit What about the flip 0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:49.639 side of this and and and something that Carol alluded 0:17:49.680 --> 0:17:51.480 to is the idea and we've talked about it this 0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:55.080 week that you know, right now we see oligarchs on 0:17:55.240 --> 0:17:58.560 edge around the world as their assets are in some 0:17:58.720 --> 0:18:01.600 in some senses obfuscated or at least attempted to be 0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:05.439 confiscated by governments in Europe and other parts of the world. 0:18:05.960 --> 0:18:09.680 Does it Does it provide an opportunity for UH people 0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:12.320 who really shouldn't have access to capital because of sanctions, 0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:14.800 to get access to capital. I know you said that 0:18:14.840 --> 0:18:17.280 at SWAN you're not doing that. You're not allowing people 0:18:17.320 --> 0:18:20.280 access who are who are blocked or banned, but can't 0:18:20.280 --> 0:18:25.800 they get access to crypto? Well, it's a really bad 0:18:25.840 --> 0:18:28.960 way to launder money or try to do anything, sort 0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:30.960 of at a large level. So if you need to 0:18:31.080 --> 0:18:33.280 hide a lot of money or move a lot of money, 0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:36.080 that's very easy for law enforcement to see. It's very 0:18:36.080 --> 0:18:38.600 easy force sanctions providers to go and hunt that down. 0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:42.520 It's really a tool of freedom for the individual and 0:18:42.640 --> 0:18:44.960 sort of smaller players to be able to do what 0:18:45.000 --> 0:18:47.160 they want to do. But if you have a shortlist 0:18:47.840 --> 0:18:51.879 of sanctioned individuals or sanctioned entities and you can see 0:18:52.000 --> 0:18:55.359 literally everything on an open blockchain, that everybody has a 0:18:55.400 --> 0:18:58.159 copy of the sluicing there As we've seen time and 0:18:58.160 --> 0:19:02.800 time again of law enforcement and governmental agencies ability to 0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:07.000 go and hunt down bad actors or essentially anybody that 0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:11.000 they're looking to target is quite good and probably quite 0:19:11.040 --> 0:19:14.679 a bit better than they're able to go and crack 0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:18.320 what's going on with the major private banks and investing 0:19:18.359 --> 0:19:20.680 banks around the world. To be frank is you know, 0:19:21.040 --> 0:19:22.840 it's funny when I ask that question. I think back 0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:25.919 to you know, the so called crocodile of Wall Street, 0:19:26.200 --> 0:19:30.840 the you know, the woman and her husband as well, 0:19:31.320 --> 0:19:35.560 who were recently charged with with laundering bitcoin um and 0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:38.359 it was I don't want to say easy, because I 0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:41.920 didn't do it, but it was possible for US authorities 0:19:41.920 --> 0:19:45.760 to track them down. Well, what was interesting there is 0:19:45.800 --> 0:19:49.159 they sat on it all these years since because they 0:19:49.160 --> 0:19:52.800 couldn't figure out how to move it without it being seen, right, 0:19:53.000 --> 0:19:55.879 So they were sophisticated enough to pull up the social 0:19:55.880 --> 0:19:59.520 engineering of getting the bitcoin, but not sophisticated enough to 0:19:59.600 --> 0:20:02.560 understand end and figure out how to clean it. And 0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:04.840 that's a very very common story. You can see all 0:20:04.840 --> 0:20:07.960 the bit clins, but it's very difficult to spend it. Hey, Corey, 0:20:08.000 --> 0:20:10.600 one thing I'm curious about, and sometimes it's moments of 0:20:10.640 --> 0:20:16.200 crisis alla the pandemic that sped up the development of innovation, digitization, 0:20:16.520 --> 0:20:19.360 A lot of things that might have taken multiple years 0:20:19.760 --> 0:20:23.120 all of a sudden happened overnight because businesses, people, individuals 0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:26.040 for survival had to do it. Um. What I'm curious 0:20:26.080 --> 0:20:29.359 is you keep talking about um how I think you 0:20:29.359 --> 0:20:33.400 said donations collected by Swan in bitcoin. We're talking about 0:20:33.440 --> 0:20:37.160 donations to help out the people in Ukraine. What about though, 0:20:38.000 --> 0:20:41.280 how this event is maybe causing people a rethink about 0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:45.680 digital currencies and wanting to have access to digital currencies 0:20:45.720 --> 0:20:49.719 to just transact on a regular basis, not necessarily just 0:20:49.840 --> 0:20:52.840 in a moment of crisis. Any signs of that that 0:20:52.880 --> 0:20:57.960 you're seeing as a result of what's going on. So, 0:20:58.520 --> 0:21:00.520 in general of the past, amount of vasion of a 0:21:00.520 --> 0:21:02.760 new asset runs through the store of value first and 0:21:02.800 --> 0:21:05.200 then into medium of exchange, as more and more people 0:21:05.400 --> 0:21:07.359 store more of the value in an asset than they 0:21:07.359 --> 0:21:09.560 actually demand to be able to spend it. So I 0:21:09.600 --> 0:21:12.760 think we're still very very early, especially in the West, 0:21:13.240 --> 0:21:16.440 with a large consumer demand to be able to spend bitcoin. 0:21:17.160 --> 0:21:20.720 I still think this is a story of it's too 0:21:20.800 --> 0:21:24.199 late when the crisis is upon you to even be 0:21:24.240 --> 0:21:26.040 able to sell off. It's hard to find a buyer 0:21:26.040 --> 0:21:28.199 in the middle of the crisis, right, So you know, 0:21:28.280 --> 0:21:32.200 the time to the time for Lebanese folks to protect 0:21:32.280 --> 0:21:37.000 themselves was long before their currency collapsed and the economy 0:21:37.080 --> 0:21:39.160 kind of fell off the shelf right, And the time 0:21:39.200 --> 0:21:43.680 for Ukrainians and Russians to protect themselves was before there 0:21:43.760 --> 0:21:46.960 was essentially a you know, a hot conflict. And that's 0:21:46.960 --> 0:21:50.320 what you have to think about everywhere around the world 0:21:50.560 --> 0:21:53.000 is what percentage of your net worth are you going 0:21:53.040 --> 0:21:56.840 to hold outside of the system that is controlled by 0:21:56.880 --> 0:22:00.960 governments and central banks and is unconfiscatable and is non 0:22:01.040 --> 0:22:05.200 correlated in the zoomed out view with any other asset 0:22:05.240 --> 0:22:08.080 out there. This is just this is bitcoin and it 0:22:08.080 --> 0:22:12.320 it lives in the digital world alone, and and no 0:22:12.359 --> 0:22:14.560 one can take it from you. So each of us 0:22:14.600 --> 0:22:18.040 needs to think about, you know, what percentage of our 0:22:18.640 --> 0:22:21.760 net worths and what percentage of our liquid assets ought 0:22:21.800 --> 0:22:24.920 to be stored in the bitcoin. For the call, we're 0:22:24.920 --> 0:22:27.879 speaking with Corey eclipsed In, the CEO of a Swan Bitcoin, 0:22:27.920 --> 0:22:31.200 the financial services platform that helps people automate the purchase 0:22:31.320 --> 0:22:33.040 of bitcoin coin. I want to go back to something 0:22:33.080 --> 0:22:35.199 that you said earlier because it sounds like, you know, 0:22:35.400 --> 0:22:38.119 this is something good for for people. You know, cryptocurrency 0:22:38.240 --> 0:22:41.639 in your mind, is something that that works well for refugees, 0:22:41.680 --> 0:22:44.440 it works well for political dissidents, but at the same 0:22:44.440 --> 0:22:46.639 time doesn't work well for people trying to skirt sanctions. 0:22:46.640 --> 0:22:49.520 I'm having trouble making sense of those two things. How 0:22:49.520 --> 0:22:52.840 can it be for both? Yeah, it's the size. It's 0:22:52.880 --> 0:22:55.560 the size. So the people that are generally getting targeted 0:22:55.880 --> 0:22:59.760 um by the US government or or or by you know, 0:23:00.720 --> 0:23:04.760 those for lack of a better term, UM, I don't 0:23:04.760 --> 0:23:07.200 think it's about crypto Wales. We're mostly talking about oligarchs 0:23:07.200 --> 0:23:09.480 and people kind of close to the Russian government or 0:23:09.560 --> 0:23:14.280 even Russian entities, whether companies or or governmental entities, and 0:23:14.359 --> 0:23:18.160 the size that they would need to move the it's 0:23:18.200 --> 0:23:20.440 just too easy to spot that, and it's too easy 0:23:20.480 --> 0:23:23.959 to get in in front of that and stop that happening. 0:23:23.960 --> 0:23:27.000 They have to acquire the bitcoin somewhere. It's almost impossible 0:23:27.040 --> 0:23:31.520 to do that without going through a service that requires 0:23:31.680 --> 0:23:33.760 k y C and a mL know your customer and 0:23:33.800 --> 0:23:38.719 antim money laundering UM screens of the customers, and so 0:23:38.760 --> 0:23:41.080 they just can't get enough for it. To make a 0:23:41.200 --> 0:23:45.080 material difference versus you know, these commodity markets that they're 0:23:45.119 --> 0:23:48.119 operating in or these large you know stakes that they 0:23:48.160 --> 0:23:50.720 might be holding in different businesses or various accounts and 0:23:50.760 --> 0:23:54.240 things like that. So that's it's really you can hide 0:23:54.240 --> 0:23:58.360 when you're small numbers, but once the numbers get very big, 0:23:58.480 --> 0:24:01.680 it's it's impossible. You know, interesting talking to the head 0:24:01.880 --> 0:24:07.919 of a global organization yesterday and you know, a savvy investor, 0:24:07.960 --> 0:24:11.640 institutional investor, entrepreneur and just saying, you know, what's your 0:24:11.720 --> 0:24:16.560 exposure to crypto? And what's interesting is this individual said, 0:24:16.600 --> 0:24:19.160 you know, I've got to be looking at it basically 0:24:19.359 --> 0:24:23.280 but not necessarily having exposure yet, right but soon and 0:24:23.320 --> 0:24:26.199 tiptoeing into it. And so I do wonder how we 0:24:26.280 --> 0:24:30.320 need to all be thinking about um bitcoin specifically since 0:24:30.320 --> 0:24:34.600 that's the dominant player. So pre this crisis, previ war, 0:24:34.760 --> 0:24:38.320 let's be truthful about what's going on. What trends were 0:24:38.359 --> 0:24:41.440 you seeing in terms of adoption and growth on your platform, 0:24:41.600 --> 0:24:44.720 and be as specific as you could. Absolutely, Yeah, I 0:24:44.760 --> 0:24:48.359 mean I think we are still searching the wave of 0:24:48.400 --> 0:24:53.199 adoption that started with the realization of what bitcoin was 0:24:53.240 --> 0:24:55.600 for lots of new people and lots of famous people 0:24:56.200 --> 0:25:01.199 after the pandemic rolled out in in que of so 0:25:01.400 --> 0:25:03.879 you had people like Stanley Druppon Miller and Paul Teator 0:25:03.960 --> 0:25:08.600 Jones speaking openly about having large positions Bill Miller, and 0:25:08.840 --> 0:25:11.199 you know, obviously Michael Saylor hit the war path and 0:25:11.200 --> 0:25:13.680 did all the shows and continued to do them for 0:25:13.680 --> 0:25:16.720 the last two years. We've talked and now we're go ahead. 0:25:16.800 --> 0:25:19.600 Now we've talked with him. Yeah, go ahead, yeah, yeah, 0:25:19.680 --> 0:25:22.480 And and so now we're seeing an opportunity for a 0:25:22.520 --> 0:25:26.439 new cohort of business leaders and influential folks that are 0:25:26.840 --> 0:25:29.879 that are understanding what bitcoin is based on this crisis. 0:25:29.560 --> 0:25:32.480 So just so forgive me just real quickly, because we've 0:25:32.480 --> 0:25:34.360 only got about twenty seconds. So what kind of growth 0:25:34.400 --> 0:25:36.960 are you seeing in terms of users or the amount 0:25:37.000 --> 0:25:40.320 of activity that's going on to real quickly? So all right, 0:25:41.400 --> 0:25:44.840 huge influx of interest over the past couple of weeks, 0:25:44.840 --> 0:25:48.000 which is fantastic. We're a fairly new company. We got 0:25:48.080 --> 0:25:53.760 the market two years ago in March of Our growth 0:25:53.880 --> 0:25:56.640 was up you know, over thirty x year over year 0:25:57.880 --> 0:26:00.280 twenty but some of that lot of small numbers got 0:26:00.280 --> 0:26:03.680 it fantastic. Corey, We gotta run. Thank you so much. 0:26:03.760 --> 0:26:06.800 Corey Clipston, he's CEO at Swan Bitcoin, joining us on 0:26:06.840 --> 0:26:09.960 the phone from l A. You're listening to Bloomberg Radio. 0:26:10.520 --> 0:26:14.560 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg 0:26:14.600 --> 0:26:18.480 Quick Takes Tim Stenovich on Bloomberg Radio. But you might 0:26:18.480 --> 0:26:21.160 recall with it yesterday day before NFP. We joked earlier 0:26:21.160 --> 0:26:23.199 this week with Mike McKee that NFP stood for not 0:26:23.240 --> 0:26:27.240 focused on payrolls, and yet this morning strong report did 0:26:27.480 --> 0:26:30.080 remind us once again about the strength and tightness of 0:26:30.080 --> 0:26:34.040 today's US labor market. Tim six seventy eight thousand jobs 0:26:34.080 --> 0:26:37.359 created last month, nearly every sector seeing gains, the unemployment rate, 0:26:37.400 --> 0:26:40.240 Carol dropping below four percent to three percent. Well, we 0:26:40.320 --> 0:26:42.679 welcome former US Labor Secretary and former chair of the 0:26:42.680 --> 0:26:46.080 Democratic National Committee. He's now running to be governor of Maryland. 0:26:46.080 --> 0:26:49.320 He's also co chair of American Bridge twenty one Century. 0:26:49.320 --> 0:26:51.640 We are delighted to have with us Tom Perez. He's 0:26:51.680 --> 0:26:54.399 on the phone from Chacoma Park, Maryland. Tom, nice to 0:26:54.480 --> 0:26:58.399 have you here with us. Um, let's do there is 0:26:58.480 --> 0:27:01.160 so much going on, but let's let's get you first. 0:27:01.200 --> 0:27:04.080 The Job's report. Uh, certainly something that in a normal 0:27:04.119 --> 0:27:06.480 week we would have been focused from Monday, and we 0:27:06.520 --> 0:27:08.159 talked about it a little bit. But obviously, as you 0:27:08.160 --> 0:27:11.159 would imagine, what's going on in Ukraine, UH is certainly 0:27:11.200 --> 0:27:12.840 front and center. We'll talk about that in a moment. 0:27:12.840 --> 0:27:15.760 But when you look at the US labor market, what 0:27:15.960 --> 0:27:18.480 jumps out for you in terms of those longer trends 0:27:18.480 --> 0:27:21.800 that stay with us? Right? I mean this, this month's 0:27:21.800 --> 0:27:25.800 report was a great report. Uh, what's one month never 0:27:25.840 --> 0:27:28.199 makes a trend, But when you look back at the 0:27:28.280 --> 0:27:34.200 last year, it's pretty remarkable. Uh. We saw the economy 0:27:34.280 --> 0:27:37.680 grow by seven million jobs last year, the fastest rate 0:27:38.240 --> 0:27:42.080 in forty nine years. Uh. The unemployment rate dropped, as 0:27:42.080 --> 0:27:45.440 you said, to three point eight percent. And one thing 0:27:45.480 --> 0:27:47.920 I learned long ago, the unemployment rate can go down 0:27:47.920 --> 0:27:50.560 for good reasons and it can go down for bad reasons. 0:27:50.640 --> 0:27:53.280 Last month, the unemployment rate went down for good reasons 0:27:53.320 --> 0:27:57.719 because people were getting jobs in the marketplace. I'm haartened 0:27:57.760 --> 0:28:01.840 to see that female labor force, the patient is moving up. 0:28:02.520 --> 0:28:07.320 It was at its lowest level in decades January. It's 0:28:07.400 --> 0:28:10.920 inching back up. We still have more work to do there. Uh, 0:28:10.960 --> 0:28:13.320 this is a resilient economy. I mean, we we have 0:28:13.480 --> 0:28:20.280 a remarkable array of forces, a global pandemic, the excess 0:28:20.320 --> 0:28:25.320 of of Putin, and and the tension that puts on 0:28:25.680 --> 0:28:30.280 our global economy. And yet you see what happened last month, 0:28:30.480 --> 0:28:33.680 and UH inflation is a real concern, there's no doubt 0:28:33.720 --> 0:28:35.880 about it. But one thing I would ask your listeners 0:28:35.920 --> 0:28:40.120 to remember, and I remember vividly when I was Labor Secretary, 0:28:40.600 --> 0:28:45.160 the challenge that was the vexing challenge for us was 0:28:45.280 --> 0:28:48.640 the long term unemployed. The reason we had such a 0:28:48.720 --> 0:28:56.000 high concentration in of long term unemployed was because the 0:28:56.160 --> 0:28:59.920 stimulus bill back in two thousand and nine. It was 0:29:00.000 --> 0:29:03.240 as much as the politics permitted at that point, but frankly, 0:29:03.280 --> 0:29:07.160 it wasn't enough. And the fact that this time around 0:29:07.600 --> 0:29:11.160 lawmakers went to school on the lessons of the Great Recession, 0:29:11.560 --> 0:29:15.440 that was a really important lesson, because I would nobody 0:29:15.480 --> 0:29:18.920 wants to see inflation. It's a real challenge. UM, it's 0:29:18.960 --> 0:29:22.920 a real issue. But I tell you, UM, I dealt 0:29:22.960 --> 0:29:25.360 with the plight of the long term unemployed, and we 0:29:25.400 --> 0:29:28.400 don't have that because we had a UM. The American 0:29:28.440 --> 0:29:31.520 Rescue Plan and by Parts and Infrastructure Bill are sufficiently 0:29:31.600 --> 0:29:33.800 muscular so that we were able to climb back faster. 0:29:34.680 --> 0:29:38.480 But tom wasn't too much because inflation is running so rampant, 0:29:38.480 --> 0:29:40.720 the highest in forty years. And and look, we're still 0:29:40.720 --> 0:29:43.280 not back to pre pandemic levels of workers in the 0:29:43.360 --> 0:29:46.960 United States. Well, we expect to be back to pre 0:29:47.040 --> 0:29:53.400 pandemic levels by the end of which is uh, pretty remarkable. 0:29:53.960 --> 0:29:57.960 Last year President Biden grew the economy by seven million 0:29:58.080 --> 0:30:02.000 jobs at the fastest rate in forty nine years. If 0:30:02.800 --> 0:30:05.240 there's a friend of mine at least ruled from the 0:30:05.280 --> 0:30:08.160 Economic Policy Institute, I saw on Twitter today she had 0:30:08.200 --> 0:30:11.320 a chart about the length of time it took to 0:30:11.400 --> 0:30:14.560 recover in the Great Recession, the length of time it 0:30:14.680 --> 0:30:20.400 took to recover in this post pandemic, or well, we 0:30:20.480 --> 0:30:24.200 hope to be post pandemic in the naza distant future. Uh. 0:30:24.240 --> 0:30:27.560 And it's night and day. Uh. And so we can 0:30:27.600 --> 0:30:31.160 always and we must always look back and learn the lessons. 0:30:31.200 --> 0:30:33.520 But I think the lesson that was taken, which was 0:30:33.560 --> 0:30:37.000 an important lesson, was that, um, we need a more 0:30:37.240 --> 0:30:41.200 we needed a more muscular um investment. And you know, 0:30:41.280 --> 0:30:45.680 the the Infrastructure Bill, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, UM it's 0:30:45.720 --> 0:30:48.560 long overdue. It's the most this is the most money 0:30:48.600 --> 0:30:52.680 spent on this since Eisenhower, and um, everyone will benefit 0:30:52.720 --> 0:30:55.360 from that. Well. The unemployee rate declining broadly among all 0:30:55.440 --> 0:30:57.840 racial and ethnic groups as well, jobs rate among Asian 0:30:57.880 --> 0:31:01.240 and Hispanic workers dropping point five per image point, while 0:31:01.280 --> 0:31:05.760 that of Black Americans falling point three point UM. So 0:31:06.120 --> 0:31:08.200 when you look at it, and we've heard FIT Chief J. 0:31:08.360 --> 0:31:11.840 Powell Tom talk about the importance of inclusion when it 0:31:11.920 --> 0:31:14.680 comes to the bounce back after the pandemic in the 0:31:14.760 --> 0:31:17.640 in the labor force. Are you comfortable with what you're 0:31:17.680 --> 0:31:21.640 seeing among minorities and the diversity of what's happening in 0:31:21.680 --> 0:31:25.720 the labor force. In terms of improvements, we we always 0:31:25.720 --> 0:31:28.680 have room for improvement there. I'm hartened to see that 0:31:28.880 --> 0:31:32.920 it was broad based. I am still I look at 0:31:33.000 --> 0:31:38.000 African American unemployment rates. H it's still uh two times 0:31:38.040 --> 0:31:41.240 the white unemployment rate, right, um, And so we have 0:31:41.360 --> 0:31:44.920 more work to do there. And and that remains so 0:31:45.000 --> 0:31:49.120 much of the unfinished business of this recovery. And that's 0:31:49.120 --> 0:31:52.560 been a challenge for a number of years. And that's 0:31:52.640 --> 0:31:54.920 why why is that Because it's certainly something you guys 0:31:55.160 --> 0:31:58.120 were dealing with and I feel like it's administration after administration. 0:31:58.160 --> 0:32:02.840 Why can't we impy? Well, I think we have to 0:32:03.400 --> 0:32:07.560 make very very um uh like he here in Maryland. 0:32:07.760 --> 0:32:11.320 You know, we have a blueprint for educational reform that 0:32:11.720 --> 0:32:15.600 is designed to ensure that no matter where you live, 0:32:15.760 --> 0:32:20.120 you have access to a world class education. And we 0:32:20.200 --> 0:32:26.120 have historically, UM all too frequently underinvested in the educational 0:32:26.120 --> 0:32:31.040 infrastructure in UH communities of color, and UH we pay 0:32:31.080 --> 0:32:34.880 a price for that. Our blueprint here in Maryland is 0:32:34.880 --> 0:32:38.880 all about making sure from cradle through career that we're 0:32:38.920 --> 0:32:43.640 preparing people everywhere to succeed. And I think we have 0:32:43.800 --> 0:32:47.440 to understand that civil rights still remains a big part 0:32:47.480 --> 0:32:49.960 of the unfinished business of America. And when we invest 0:32:50.480 --> 0:32:54.719 in UM black communities and other communities of color, I 0:32:54.760 --> 0:32:58.000 think we will yield that return. And when we invest in, 0:32:58.680 --> 0:33:01.600 for instance, we're gonna have a energy infrastructure here with 0:33:01.680 --> 0:33:04.920 offshore wind in Maryland and elsewhere, and we've got to 0:33:04.960 --> 0:33:08.160 make sure that UM those jobs, and those are thirty 0:33:08.760 --> 0:33:13.200 union jobs, right, that we're building an infrastructure in the 0:33:13.240 --> 0:33:16.840 career and technical education so that those jobs are accessible 0:33:17.320 --> 0:33:20.960 UH in every community. To do it, we want to 0:33:21.000 --> 0:33:23.080 tap into you've gotta be a and international relations and 0:33:23.160 --> 0:33:26.240 political science, and we've got to tim tap into what 0:33:26.600 --> 0:33:28.840 Tom has has to say about what's going on in 0:33:28.960 --> 0:33:31.240 Ukraine right now. Yeah. Tom, we've been covering the humanitarian 0:33:31.280 --> 0:33:34.560 situation closely. We've been covering the economics effects, the economic 0:33:34.560 --> 0:33:37.200 effects and of course the market effects of Russia's invasion 0:33:37.200 --> 0:33:39.560 of Ukraine. And I was talking to Carol earlier and 0:33:39.560 --> 0:33:42.800 I said, you know, when we heard the administration policymakers 0:33:42.840 --> 0:33:46.000 talking about the inflation that we've seen of late, it's 0:33:46.000 --> 0:33:48.400 really been a story that they're telling about a demand shock, 0:33:49.040 --> 0:33:51.120 but that seemed to shift in the last ten days 0:33:51.120 --> 0:33:54.520 with the supply shock elements of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, 0:33:54.720 --> 0:33:57.280 with potentially getting cut off from Russian oil to Biden 0:33:57.280 --> 0:34:00.280 administration thinking about that, Um, how does the how does 0:34:00.280 --> 0:34:03.000 the administration get inflation under control when they're seeing shocks 0:34:03.000 --> 0:34:06.640 in the supply side and on the demand side. Well, 0:34:06.800 --> 0:34:09.399 I mean, you know, the images out of Ukraine are 0:34:09.440 --> 0:34:14.279 indeed horrifying, and innocent civilians are being targeted, lives are 0:34:14.280 --> 0:34:17.240 being lost. The refugee Cristi is unlike anything we've seen 0:34:18.239 --> 0:34:21.799 world War two. Um, and and Putin started this war 0:34:21.840 --> 0:34:25.040 and he needs to end it. And uh. There, I 0:34:25.120 --> 0:34:28.879 have a student that I talked to literally yesterday, a 0:34:28.880 --> 0:34:31.040 former student of mine who did Peace Corps for two 0:34:31.120 --> 0:34:35.400 years in Ukraine, and she was in tears. She just 0:34:35.480 --> 0:34:39.680 got back your year or so ago. And you know, there, 0:34:40.760 --> 0:34:49.279 the the efforts to isolate the Russian dictatorship are compelling, 0:34:49.800 --> 0:34:54.800 they are essential. And um, will that have an adverse 0:34:54.840 --> 0:34:59.640 impact on prices at the pump? Very likely it could, 0:35:00.200 --> 0:35:05.399 um and will um, But as I watch the heroism 0:35:05.719 --> 0:35:09.880 of of people in Ukraine, and I take a step 0:35:09.920 --> 0:35:15.839 back and I examine what's going on. Uh, this is 0:35:16.960 --> 0:35:21.600 a moment where we must come together as a global community, 0:35:22.200 --> 0:35:29.120 understanding that it will have economic impact. Here the President 0:35:29.160 --> 0:35:32.560 outline steps he's taken to reduce the cost of prescription 0:35:32.640 --> 0:35:37.160 drugs and and childcare and other things. But I as 0:35:37.200 --> 0:35:40.319 I look at the moment at hand, and I recognize 0:35:40.400 --> 0:35:42.920 that many people, so many people around the country are 0:35:42.960 --> 0:35:46.040 living you know, week the week here. Um. But this 0:35:46.120 --> 0:35:50.799 is a humanitarian crisis unlike anything we've seen since World 0:35:50.800 --> 0:35:54.680 War two, and um, and we need to come together 0:35:54.719 --> 0:35:57.520 as a global community. And and and our economy has 0:35:57.560 --> 0:36:01.160 proven resilience. Look at the top numbers. To day, we're 0:36:01.200 --> 0:36:06.560 begandering through a thicket of unprecedented challenges and we continue 0:36:06.600 --> 0:36:09.840 to grow. Hey, Tom, just got about a month. A month. 0:36:10.080 --> 0:36:11.480 I wish we had a month. I was still to 0:36:11.480 --> 0:36:13.160 talk with you, but we have just about a minute 0:36:13.280 --> 0:36:16.640 left here, and I do wonder, UM, what we look back. 0:36:16.719 --> 0:36:19.680 Is this a moment in time where in terms of 0:36:19.680 --> 0:36:23.520 the global economy, in terms of geopolitical relations, Russia is 0:36:23.560 --> 0:36:26.280 going to be squeezed out in on its own probably 0:36:26.360 --> 0:36:31.120 longer term. Well, I think so. And uh, I think 0:36:31.239 --> 0:36:33.440 you will see at some point in the not so 0:36:33.600 --> 0:36:36.680 distant future that the International Criminal Court is going to 0:36:37.520 --> 0:36:43.799 announce an investigation, a formal investigation, um, not just an investigation, 0:36:43.840 --> 0:36:50.160 but a prosecution for war times violations by Putin and 0:36:50.320 --> 0:36:55.000 his regime. UM. And I think that's something that has 0:36:55.040 --> 0:36:58.719 to happen. And we need to keep this uh pressure up. 0:36:59.200 --> 0:37:01.200 And I know it's going to be difficult and it's 0:37:01.200 --> 0:37:04.640 going to have some impact, but UM, there are just forces. 0:37:04.800 --> 0:37:11.240 We have a democracy recession around the world. Authoritarianism cannot 0:37:11.360 --> 0:37:14.200 be the wave of the future. UH, this is a 0:37:14.239 --> 0:37:19.319 real moment of of peril. And UH we have to 0:37:19.400 --> 0:37:22.160 come together as a global community, just like we did 0:37:22.719 --> 0:37:25.440 um in World War Two, and just like we have 0:37:25.600 --> 0:37:29.719 in other moments in our global journey to form a 0:37:29.719 --> 0:37:36.040 more perfect global union. Wow, Um, Tom, I'm I'm wondering. 0:37:36.800 --> 0:37:39.120 You know, when we when we think about what's been 0:37:39.120 --> 0:37:42.360 happening in Ukraine, the Russian invasion there, how do you 0:37:42.360 --> 0:37:48.200 think it ends? I don't I if I knew that, 0:37:48.360 --> 0:37:51.520 I don't know the answer, and I don't know that 0:37:51.600 --> 0:37:56.720 anyone knows, uh the answer, because we can't get into 0:37:56.760 --> 0:38:01.319 Putin's head right now. Uh, he needs to back off. 0:38:01.800 --> 0:38:06.439 But it just seems like with every passing day, Um, 0:38:06.760 --> 0:38:12.319 his intent appears to be doubling down. And that's why 0:38:12.360 --> 0:38:17.440 the global community needs to come together. Well, I must say, 0:38:16.840 --> 0:38:22.520 you know, after nine eleven, we came together as a nation. Um. 0:38:22.600 --> 0:38:27.400 We understood that we needed to come together as a nation. 0:38:27.520 --> 0:38:29.640 And I hope we will do that. I. You know, 0:38:30.000 --> 0:38:33.239 some of the things I periodically read um here at 0:38:33.280 --> 0:38:37.880 home are just really puzzling and and and disappointing. I 0:38:38.280 --> 0:38:43.400 hope we will come together, um, because this person is 0:38:43.440 --> 0:38:47.520 a thug and we need to understand that. Tom just 0:38:47.560 --> 0:38:49.719 got about thirty seconds left here. I do feel like 0:38:50.200 --> 0:38:52.200 we are at a junct, a point where there's a 0:38:52.239 --> 0:38:56.799 lot of demarcation when it comes to democracy versus those 0:38:56.840 --> 0:38:59.520 countries that don't embrace democracy. Does China need to be 0:38:59.640 --> 0:39:01.360 on good hard or do you see that as a 0:39:01.400 --> 0:39:05.440 different situation, And again, just got about thirty seconds or so. Well, 0:39:05.480 --> 0:39:11.000 I hope I'll be interested to see what happens in China, 0:39:11.160 --> 0:39:15.760 because um, I think the Chinese government needs to understand 0:39:16.280 --> 0:39:19.799 the swift and certain reaction of the global community to 0:39:19.920 --> 0:39:22.640 the events in Russia. If you attempt to do the 0:39:22.719 --> 0:39:25.640 same thing, we will deal with you in the same way. 0:39:25.840 --> 0:39:28.000 And I hope that what's happening right now is a 0:39:28.040 --> 0:39:35.160 cautionary tale for uh, the regime in China. So delighted 0:39:35.200 --> 0:39:37.759 to get some time with you, Tom, Thank you so much. 0:39:37.840 --> 0:39:41.040 Tom Perez, former US Labor Secretary, co chair at American 0:39:41.080 --> 0:39:44.360 Bridge twenty one century, joining us on the phone from Maryland. 0:39:44.360 --> 0:39:48.560 Tom be well, thank you, Roam morow. Yeah, but you 0:39:48.680 --> 0:39:56.319 let me drive? Oh no, no, no, please, I want 0:39:56.320 --> 0:40:10.040 to drive. It's a good question. Drive to the cloth radio. 0:40:10.280 --> 0:40:12.120 Gotta say, this was a jam packed week, we know, 0:40:12.239 --> 0:40:14.160 and it was an important week. It was a heavy week. 0:40:14.280 --> 0:40:16.080 It was a volatile week, and we certainly saw that 0:40:16.160 --> 0:40:18.640 play out in the financial markets. And here we are 0:40:18.680 --> 0:40:20.920 bouncing around again on a Friday as we head into 0:40:21.000 --> 0:40:23.160 a weekend with as we heard from Charlie down more 0:40:23.200 --> 0:40:24.640 than one percent, about the S and P and the 0:40:24.719 --> 0:40:27.279 DAW the NAZAC down two point two percent, which maybe 0:40:27.320 --> 0:40:30.799 explains why Doug Cioca's research note to us was pretty thick. 0:40:31.320 --> 0:40:33.160 There was a lot there. All right, Let's bring in 0:40:33.239 --> 0:40:36.719 Doug Cioka, CEO and partner at Cavar Capital Partners. They've 0:40:36.719 --> 0:40:39.080 got our billion in assets under management. On the phone 0:40:39.120 --> 0:40:41.279 from Leewood, Kansas. We're having some fun with you. When 0:40:41.320 --> 0:40:43.879 I was getting my file from our producer Paul Brandon, like, wow, 0:40:43.960 --> 0:40:45.640 that's a lot from Doug. But it was a luck 0:40:45.719 --> 0:40:51.799 going on. Doug. How are you? How are you good? 0:40:51.840 --> 0:40:55.440 To have you here? So we know we understand. I 0:40:55.560 --> 0:40:57.880 think it's safe to say, right some of the financial 0:40:57.960 --> 0:40:59.920 moves that we're seeing, whether it's energy, whether it's defense, 0:41:00.000 --> 0:41:02.520 whether it's travel. In terms of what's going on in 0:41:02.680 --> 0:41:06.839 the marketplaces this week, you know, the movement that we've 0:41:06.840 --> 0:41:09.800 seen in yield. What is it that's I don't know 0:41:10.320 --> 0:41:13.920 most important interesting to you and the investments that you 0:41:13.960 --> 0:41:17.239 need to make for clients. Doug. Yeah, so it's been 0:41:17.440 --> 0:41:20.000 it's been a really a crazy year, right, And this 0:41:20.280 --> 0:41:23.920 this week, as you mentioned, kind of gives contextually um 0:41:24.120 --> 0:41:26.239 coming where we were last Friday with an eight point 0:41:26.280 --> 0:41:28.319 moving the down and then to have but basically all 0:41:28.400 --> 0:41:30.640 but the four but all but one down day this week. 0:41:31.160 --> 0:41:33.719 So much is hinding is hinging obviously on what's taking 0:41:33.719 --> 0:41:36.479 place to you politically, and it is obscuring everything else 0:41:37.000 --> 0:41:40.960 and oftentimes and and there is a positive aspect of 0:41:41.280 --> 0:41:44.719 of what's taking place in the form of indiscriminate selling, right, 0:41:44.760 --> 0:41:47.439 And the positive part is that you do have great 0:41:47.520 --> 0:41:50.359 companies that are treated like very poor stocks. And that's 0:41:50.400 --> 0:41:53.120 a condition that doesn't tend to persist for very long, right, 0:41:53.200 --> 0:41:55.560 So trying to be opportunistic and look a little bit 0:41:55.600 --> 0:41:57.960 around the corner, right, We do a lot of quantity 0:41:58.480 --> 0:42:03.239 quantitative screening for a stock port playos and evaluations tend 0:42:03.360 --> 0:42:07.000 to weight sectors accordingly, and you know, interestingly, like right now, 0:42:07.320 --> 0:42:11.840 large industry groups represented by our screens our financial stocks, 0:42:12.000 --> 0:42:15.520 technology stocks, and healthcare stocks, and these screens try to 0:42:15.600 --> 0:42:18.120 eliminate like the profitists and super speculves of the companies 0:42:18.120 --> 0:42:22.120 as much as they require stronger alying fundamentals and empisides 0:42:22.160 --> 0:42:25.680 evidenturary aspects of the company's profitability and not just aspirations. 0:42:25.960 --> 0:42:28.160 What does that tell you, though, that you've got a 0:42:28.239 --> 0:42:35.080 cyclical financials, defensive technology, and a combination healthcare all screening 0:42:35.160 --> 0:42:38.600 positively right, give us an indication there is broad based 0:42:38.719 --> 0:42:41.279 value right now in US equities and that for the 0:42:41.400 --> 0:42:44.560 long term gets to very constructive and excited. So healthcare, 0:42:44.600 --> 0:42:49.000 tech and what else? Was it? Financials? Okay? Okay? So yeah, 0:42:49.320 --> 0:42:51.960 So are we you know here we are eating the 0:42:52.040 --> 0:42:54.920 Nasdaq composite down eighteen percent from its all time highs 0:42:55.480 --> 0:42:58.560 um the s and P five hundred down what this year? 0:42:59.080 --> 0:43:02.359 You know, close to nine just this year alone. Are 0:43:02.440 --> 0:43:05.000 we at levels where you're seeing values? Are you ready 0:43:05.000 --> 0:43:08.319 to go in and by the death? Oh? Absolutely, Tim, 0:43:08.360 --> 0:43:10.319 I mean we we We mentioned in this client letter 0:43:10.400 --> 0:43:14.680 that there's this old investment adage related to armed conflict, right, 0:43:14.680 --> 0:43:16.880 and it goes like this, right by on the cannons 0:43:16.920 --> 0:43:20.399 and selling the trumpets. And basically, when ambiguity is high 0:43:20.480 --> 0:43:22.800 and sentiment is low, prices tend to go down and 0:43:22.840 --> 0:43:25.400 they offer interesting entry points, and we always say that 0:43:25.440 --> 0:43:28.040 that comes across it is sounding maybe a bit heartless, 0:43:28.080 --> 0:43:30.879 and that's not the intent, right, It's more that you're 0:43:31.640 --> 0:43:37.080 channeling kind of accommodation of nationalism and optimism and capitalism 0:43:37.160 --> 0:43:40.239 and public private sector unite and the whole common purposes 0:43:40.520 --> 0:43:44.280 resolution and kind of a modern day adaptation of cannons 0:43:44.320 --> 0:43:49.840 and trumpets would be be opportunistic within your objectives, right, Price, 0:43:49.960 --> 0:43:54.720 this location and volatility are generally short term nature. Guessing 0:43:54.800 --> 0:43:58.520 when they will end is impossible. Knowing they will end 0:43:58.880 --> 0:44:02.200 is responsible. So we try to retain an adherence to 0:44:02.840 --> 0:44:06.120 kind of well designed asset allocation as a key to 0:44:06.239 --> 0:44:09.600 long term investing success, but at the same time as 0:44:09.680 --> 0:44:13.000 growing ample resources out of the path of harm, that's 0:44:13.080 --> 0:44:15.799 the key to short term peace of mind. So we've 0:44:15.840 --> 0:44:18.720 said for a long time, invest for long term, managed 0:44:18.760 --> 0:44:21.840 for the short term. But they're undeniably value in this 0:44:22.040 --> 0:44:25.440 market and gin evaluations to the second. But a lot 0:44:25.480 --> 0:44:27.840 of people are comparing this period to sort of the 0:44:27.960 --> 0:44:31.640 prior geopolitical uh influence negative on the market, which was 0:44:31.719 --> 0:44:34.800 the pandemic, and we're now at pre pandemic levels of 0:44:34.960 --> 0:44:37.560 of of valuation. Multiply the s and T. But back 0:44:37.640 --> 0:44:40.239 then SMP orrings, we're gonna go maybe four or five 0:44:40.360 --> 0:44:43.839 percent in two thousand and nineteen and twenty. Now, the expectation, 0:44:44.040 --> 0:44:46.960 even though last year ye ever hear, is to grow 0:44:47.040 --> 0:44:51.200 over So you have a valuation that's cheaper and a 0:44:51.320 --> 0:44:53.359 and a growth rate that's four or five times we're 0:44:53.400 --> 0:44:55.319 looking at two years ago. All right, did you about 0:44:55.360 --> 0:45:00.239 arnies growth rate? Yes? So you know what's interesting, Um, 0:45:01.480 --> 0:45:03.879 that makes sense to me, logical, right, and you start 0:45:03.920 --> 0:45:05.719 and there's a point where you have to step back 0:45:05.920 --> 0:45:09.080 and get away from the headlines and the volatility and 0:45:09.280 --> 0:45:11.600 just stay. This is something Martin Adams does for a 0:45:11.600 --> 0:45:14.480 Bloomberg intelligence, like, let's look at the fundamentals, whether it's earnings, 0:45:14.480 --> 0:45:18.520 whether it's margin expansion or you know whatever. What's interesting is, though, 0:45:19.400 --> 0:45:21.839 if we go into recession and often in a FED 0:45:21.960 --> 0:45:24.800 tightening cycle, it's not a guarantee, but it's tricky for 0:45:24.840 --> 0:45:27.200 the Fed to get it right and not either overshoot. 0:45:27.760 --> 0:45:31.080 And earlier this week there was US economic data for 0:45:31.120 --> 0:45:33.400 the first quarter of two has been so weak that 0:45:33.440 --> 0:45:37.040 the Atlanta Feds GDP now tracker showed a zero percent 0:45:37.080 --> 0:45:40.279 reading for GDP growth based on data release through that 0:45:40.440 --> 0:45:43.320 point was earlier this week. If we get a recession, 0:45:43.320 --> 0:45:45.279 does that change it or if you if we get 0:45:45.280 --> 0:45:47.520 a recession, do you anticipate it's kind of a touch 0:45:47.560 --> 0:45:51.399 and go and we move off of it pretty quickly. Yeah. 0:45:51.440 --> 0:45:53.200 I think we would move off of it pretty quickly. 0:45:53.440 --> 0:45:55.840 And people talk about recessions in terms of depths and 0:45:56.000 --> 0:45:58.279 what it will be really deeper, shallow. I think it 0:45:58.320 --> 0:46:01.160 would be shallow and quick. I think the exacting its 0:46:01.280 --> 0:46:04.719 influences that are headwinds for economic growth could get us 0:46:04.760 --> 0:46:06.799 into a technical definition of a recession. And I put 0:46:06.880 --> 0:46:09.239 that as a very low probability of a couple of 0:46:09.280 --> 0:46:12.560 consecutive quarters of negative GDP because when you look at 0:46:13.040 --> 0:46:18.640 an economy right now that has amazing underlying consumer strength, 0:46:18.800 --> 0:46:21.480 partially a function of a great job market, partially a 0:46:21.520 --> 0:46:24.960 function of persistently low interest rates for a while, partially 0:46:25.080 --> 0:46:27.840 of a function of an economy that is this in 0:46:27.880 --> 0:46:33.360 a transition spawned by entrepreneurial opportunities. And you add that 0:46:33.520 --> 0:46:35.719 to the valuation of the market, and then you overlay 0:46:35.760 --> 0:46:38.120 that with the job number that we got this morning, 0:46:38.640 --> 0:46:41.280 right which was so wonderful because it was inflation neutral, 0:46:41.320 --> 0:46:44.920 but economically positive, and it's it's not meaningful today, right 0:46:44.960 --> 0:46:47.680 because it's a geopolitical backdrop, but you looked at the 0:46:47.719 --> 0:46:51.880 client year over your average hourly earnings. That's really significant 0:46:52.040 --> 0:46:54.360 and that it suggests that the said is not facing 0:46:54.440 --> 0:46:58.799 this immediate wage price spiral that could be very very 0:46:58.840 --> 0:47:01.960 sessionary in its form, and that's not the case right now, 0:47:02.000 --> 0:47:03.520 and that's very positive. I just want to point out 0:47:03.520 --> 0:47:05.239 because I'm watching the equity trade. We've just got about 0:47:05.239 --> 0:47:06.560 four and a half minutes left here, and we're seeing 0:47:06.600 --> 0:47:08.360 some buying into the clothes and we talked about this. 0:47:08.440 --> 0:47:11.080 We're still down across the board, we're off our lows, 0:47:11.120 --> 0:47:14.399 but particularly on the SMP and the DOW, we're seeing 0:47:14.440 --> 0:47:17.040 it move up towards its higher levels of the day 0:47:17.200 --> 0:47:19.680 NOWASA trying to but nonetheless we are seeing some buying 0:47:20.000 --> 0:47:22.440 into the close here. Do does that do those concerns? 0:47:22.480 --> 0:47:24.640 Are those still eased for you, Doug, despite the fact 0:47:24.680 --> 0:47:26.840 that we're seeing this supply shock right now as a 0:47:26.880 --> 0:47:29.839 result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I mean, we talked 0:47:29.920 --> 0:47:33.160 earlier about the rising grain prices and wheat prices this week, 0:47:33.239 --> 0:47:36.960 and that's going to hit consumers really hard. Yeah, no questions. 0:47:37.160 --> 0:47:40.640 The whole inflationary aspect is concerning. And again I do 0:47:40.800 --> 0:47:44.320 think that's what gives the FED the capability because of 0:47:44.440 --> 0:47:49.480 these exogenous headwinds, that they can modify the change rates 0:47:50.080 --> 0:47:54.759 in the implementation of tighter monetary policy, the telegraphing capability 0:47:54.800 --> 0:47:57.719 of doing so, and being data dependent, which they by 0:47:57.960 --> 0:48:00.920 requirement are, I think that is going to give the 0:48:01.000 --> 0:48:04.600 economy the necessary runway and clearance to make modifications as 0:48:04.680 --> 0:48:08.320 best they can now. Tim If this conflict extends weeks 0:48:08.400 --> 0:48:11.160 and months, then there's gonna have to be potentially just 0:48:11.280 --> 0:48:13.480 the opposite of what the peasants tending to do, and 0:48:13.560 --> 0:48:14.800 we were worried they were gonna have to do that 0:48:14.920 --> 0:48:17.640 over the weekend. With the swift messaging system, sanctions is 0:48:17.640 --> 0:48:19.920 actually even expand the balance sheet. They don't have a 0:48:19.960 --> 0:48:21.440 lot of gun. They don't have a lot of howder 0:48:21.480 --> 0:48:23.239 the gun, But if you need to hopefully have enough, 0:48:23.480 --> 0:48:26.360 right well, data dependent, right flexible. We heard Jamie Diamond 0:48:26.440 --> 0:48:28.480 saying the Fed's got to be flexible, and we have 0:48:28.719 --> 0:48:32.440 seen the Fed certainly watch the headlines and be data dependent. Um, 0:48:32.560 --> 0:48:35.960 Doug Cioca, thank you so much. Have a great weekend. Douglas, 0:48:36.440 --> 0:48:40.120 partner of our Capital Partners, on the phone from Leewood, Kansas. 0:48:41.280 --> 0:48:44.080 Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast 0:48:44.160 --> 0:48:47.120 on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can 0:48:47.120 --> 0:48:49.240 also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern 0:48:49.320 --> 0:48:52.440 on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg 0:48:52.480 --> 0:48:53.120 Global News.