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Speaker 2: Thursday edition, It's Little Friday and the word at the
Speaker 2: White House's outrage following, of course, the killing of seven
Speaker 2: volunteers AID workers at the World Central Kitchen working for
Speaker 2: Jose Andres, it really seemed to be, if not a
Speaker 2: turning point, an inflection point here in the conversation about
Speaker 2: this administration's policy in Israel when it comes to Israel's
Speaker 2: war against Hamas and the conduct that we're seeing inside
Speaker 2: of Gaza. The President today, of course, is going to
Speaker 2: be meeting with Benjaminett and Yahoo, which is our top
Speaker 2: story now. As I said earlier, to be a fly
Speaker 2: on the wall, or I guess a fly on the line.
Speaker 2: They will not be in the same room, but it
Speaker 2: is expected that Joe Biden is going to give Benjamin
Speaker 2: Etia who a piece of his mind. The question is
Speaker 2: will it matter in the end as we continue to
Speaker 2: send weapons to Israel and we're hearing from quarters throughout
Speaker 2: the Democratic Party here, former Obama officials expressing outrage, allies
Speaker 2: of the president like Chris Coon's Senator Van Holland in Maryland,
Speaker 2: typically those who are there to express support. And this
Speaker 2: is a big deal on the campaign trail, which is
Speaker 2: why we wanted to spend some time with Nia Malika Henderson,
Speaker 2: who's always writing about the Biden campaign and this race
Speaker 2: to the White House for Bloomberg Opinion. She's with us
Speaker 2: at the table now and it's great to see you.
Speaker 2: Thanks for coming in. This is tough when you're hearing
Speaker 2: from Jon Favreau, when you're hearing from allies on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 2: I can only imagine what Barack Obama tells Joe Biden
Speaker 2: if they're talking behind closed doors. We're not going to
Speaker 2: see or hear this meeting today. So what's the job
Speaker 2: for Joe Biden listen.
Speaker 3: I think it's to express what he's somewhat already expressed,
Speaker 3: which is outrage at what has happened here with these
Speaker 3: volunteer workers who are really doing the Lord's work right
Speaker 3: feeding these folks. Starvation is an issue in this area,
Speaker 3: and you have here a situation where seven are killed.
Speaker 3: About the IDF, they have said this was an accident.
Speaker 3: You've heard from jose and Andreas who has said he
Speaker 3: feels like these aid workers were targeted, which is quite
Speaker 3: a big claim to make. And of course this will
Speaker 3: be the subject of this conversation that Joe Biden has
Speaker 3: with Bibi Netanyahu. You know, I think the real question is,
Speaker 3: as you said, is this sort of a turning point
Speaker 3: or is it sort of something more subtle, an inflection point.
Speaker 3: Does this change the conduct of the war from the
Speaker 3: point of view of the IDEF going after Hamas? Does
Speaker 3: it change America support? You've heard from the White House
Speaker 3: so far that it won't, that they will continue to
Speaker 3: supply arms to Israel. And listening you've heard from people
Speaker 3: like Bernie Sanders, who you know, obviously a Jewish American, say,
Speaker 3: does this make Americans complicit?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 3: This idea that we're funding this war with taxpayer dollars
Speaker 3: that is ending up killing so many not only Palasian civilians,
Speaker 3: but more recently of this terribly tragic accident where these
Speaker 3: aid workers were killed.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is making it more difficult now to
Speaker 2: bring aid. The idea of a temporary peer appears to
Speaker 2: be if not on hold up in the air because
Speaker 2: the aid organizations don't have an agreement yet here and
Speaker 2: they don't want to put their people right at risk.
Speaker 2: Remember at one point, Joe Biden at the beginning was saying,
Speaker 2: you know, the way to deal with BB is to
Speaker 2: hug him, to hold him even closer at times like these.
Speaker 2: They've been estranged essentially for months. Now does he need
Speaker 2: to start hugging him again?
Speaker 3: Well, listen, you know that sort of hugging of BB.
Speaker 3: That was their history, right, Biden and BB, we're close,
Speaker 3: and now you hear out of this White House real
Speaker 3: discontent from Biden in terms of BB's actions and in
Speaker 3: terms of some of his rhetoric, and some of it
Speaker 3: has been quite profane in terms of the way Biden
Speaker 3: has referred to BB Netanyahu. And we'll see. I'm sure
Speaker 3: we'll get a readout of this call at some point.
Speaker 3: But listen, Democrats sanitized reading, right, No, no curse words,
Speaker 3: but listen, they may share some on this phone call.
Speaker 2: So that's the kind of conversation we're talking about. Though
Speaker 2: the thing is politically speaking, like I said, we can't
Speaker 2: watch or listen, So Joe Biden can't reap the political
Speaker 2: benefits from that that he saw born out again in
Speaker 2: the polls in another primary night this week with a
Speaker 2: protest vote that won't go away. You've written about this,
Speaker 2: Is it getting worse?
Speaker 4: You know?
Speaker 3: Listen, I think it's certainly not getting any better.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 3: You've had instances where the White House has tried to
Speaker 3: reach out to some of these leaders Palestinian Americans, Arab
Speaker 3: Americans who are sort of at the tip of the
Speaker 3: spear of this anti difety.
Speaker 2: Director of National Security to Michigan for you right now, Yeah,
Speaker 2: that's serious.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And he's had one on one meetings with some
Speaker 3: of these folks. And listen, some of these folks have
Speaker 3: walked out of meetings that they've had face to face
Speaker 3: with Joe Biden to express their displeasure, to go public
Speaker 3: with their displeasure, but also to try to get this
Speaker 3: White House to change course, right, to have a ceasefire,
Speaker 3: to have more skin in the game in terms of
Speaker 3: what BB is doing over there. We have been loyal
Speaker 3: allies the US has obviously of Israel throughout this whole thing,
Speaker 3: and the elimination of Hamas is their stated goal. And
Speaker 3: as of now, the US is continuing to support that goal,
Speaker 3: which means providing arms and ammunition to the idea of.
Speaker 2: As we spend time with Neia Malika Henderson writing for
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Opinion and the Headline today, Mitt Romney should campaign
Speaker 2: for Joe Biden. This all ties in together here. This
Speaker 2: is the time in which Joe Biden needs to start
Speaker 2: to start consolidating here, and it's taking a general campaign seriously,
Speaker 2: has been raising a lot of money. But your point
Speaker 2: is what happens to these never trumpers, a lot of
Speaker 2: whom turned out. Nikki Haley pulled ten percent in all
Speaker 2: four of those states the other night. But you're looking
Speaker 2: at folks like Chris Christy, like Mitt Romney, even Liz Cheney.
Speaker 2: What world are we in when Liz Cheney could possibly
Speaker 2: endorse Ji.
Speaker 3: I mean this is you know, she hasn't officially, but
Speaker 3: she has said she will do everything.
Speaker 2: And you think he needs to start asking.
Speaker 3: I think he well, listen, I think he could start
Speaker 3: asking at some point. You know, there was a there
Speaker 3: was a piece in Political that said, yes, he should
Speaker 3: start asking. My thing is, if these folks are saying
Speaker 3: that Donald Trump is a threat to democracy, then that
Speaker 3: should be enough to make them campaign for Joe Biden.
Speaker 3: I talked to Sarah Matthews, who was somebody who worked
Speaker 3: in the Trump White House. She was sort of up
Speaker 3: close and impersonal during the January sixth events and resigned
Speaker 3: as a result. She is anti Trump, but she's also
Speaker 3: pro Biden. And she said, listen, she feels like she
Speaker 3: needs to come out and say she's going to endorse
Speaker 3: Joe Biden because it makes what she says about Trump
Speaker 3: more real.
Speaker 2: And she pro bid protest.
Speaker 3: It's sort of both, you know, it's it's anti Trump,
Speaker 3: but it ends up being pro Biden.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, she's no, that's the thing. She is going
Speaker 3: to vote for Joe Biden, and she's telling other people
Speaker 3: that they should.
Speaker 5: Christ.
Speaker 2: I mean, think of the time they spent dumping on
Speaker 2: Joe Biden. That be kind of crazy to term.
Speaker 3: I think you're exactly right, you know, and almost you know,
Speaker 3: you think about the conventions in this summer, and typically
Speaker 3: you'll have somebody from the other party indoors whoever the
Speaker 3: Republican nominee or the Democratic nominee. Who will that be
Speaker 3: this go round? You know, if if I have to guess,
Speaker 3: either Liz Cheney or Chris Grissy. I imagine it could
Speaker 3: be Liz Cheney. That would be given the fact that
Speaker 3: she's out there.
Speaker 2: You could almost see it happening.
Speaker 5: I could.
Speaker 3: I could see it happened with Liz Chaney. Not so
Speaker 3: much Chris Christy.
Speaker 5: Wow.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, So that's the's Remember when Joe Lieberman came
Speaker 2: out at that would be the moment that would be
Speaker 2: this convention exactly.
Speaker 3: And so last time for in twenty twenty, it was
Speaker 3: John Kaysik for for Joe Biden. You know, we sort
Speaker 3: of forget that convention because.
Speaker 2: It was in a traditional almost like it didn't happen.
Speaker 3: It was in a COVID era and so so I
Speaker 3: you know, if I had to put money on it,
Speaker 3: my mom doesn't like me to bet.
Speaker 2: I would bet good stuff. Chaney, We play this back
Speaker 2: when it happens.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 2: As for the rest of them, Mitt Romney is another one,
Speaker 2: another name out there that seems maybe pliable when it
Speaker 2: comes to a Biden.
Speaker 3: Keem, I think that's right. You know, again, he has
Speaker 3: come out and said that he's not going to vote
Speaker 3: for Donald Trump. He voted twice to impeach him. He's
Speaker 3: a man of deep faith. Joe Biden also a man
Speaker 3: of deep faith, and I think in that way he
Speaker 3: could talk about Joe Biden's faith and suggests that he
Speaker 3: would make a better president than Donald Trump. Listen, these
Speaker 3: people need to have a spine, they need to have
Speaker 3: some skin in the game. If they are in fact
Speaker 3: truly believing that they want to block Donald Trump from
Speaker 3: being president, then the only way to do that really
Speaker 3: is to I think bolster Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: Well, so then you wonder where does the endorsement go.
Speaker 2: And you're talking about the anti Trump Republicans who could
Speaker 2: vote for Joe Biden, those who held Donald Trump to
Speaker 2: under eighty percent as you write in the Wisconsin primary
Speaker 2: this week. So okay, you got it, Chris Christy or
Speaker 2: a Mitt Romney. How does that translate to people, real
Speaker 2: voters on the ground.
Speaker 3: You know, that's the big question. And I think the
Speaker 3: University of voters of anti Trump voters probably like ten percent,
Speaker 3: and those people were critical in that's the difference. That's
Speaker 3: the difference in these states right there are going to
Speaker 3: be you know, decided by a couple of thousand votes
Speaker 3: here and there, and so this is going to be
Speaker 3: an all hands on deck election. If you think that
Speaker 3: Donald Trump should not be anywhere near the White House,
Speaker 3: as Liz Cheney has said, then if you're Chris Christy,
Speaker 3: if you're Mitt Romney, you need to get on board
Speaker 3: with Joe Biden and try to help him in some
Speaker 3: of these states Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. We're the sort of moderate Republicans,
Speaker 3: sort of a chamber of commerce. Republicans are Mitt Romney.
Speaker 3: I think Chris Christy, Liz Cheney can speak to those guys.
Speaker 2: We still call them Lincoln Project Republicans. Maybe that was
Speaker 2: the last I got to ask you about this fundraiser
Speaker 2: that Trump is talking about.
Speaker 3: Yeah, thirty million dollars.
Speaker 2: Well supposedly, Yes, this is after Joe Biden, you know,
Speaker 2: pulled twenty five million. I think it was at Radio
Speaker 2: City's up there on the riser with Bill Clinton, I know,
Speaker 2: Brock Obama, and you know somebody was watching from mar
Speaker 2: A Lago totally and was so bothered by this that
Speaker 2: he had to top it. So there will be a
Speaker 2: fundraiser apparently this will be in Palm Beach for twenty
Speaker 2: three million, reportedly on Saturday. He's got all the billionaires
Speaker 2: lined up. The criticism here from an actual campaign organizing
Speaker 2: standpoint is you just front loaded the whole thing, and
Speaker 2: we're peaking early. You mean for some fundraising for Donald
Speaker 2: Trump the case, Yeah, yeah, to throw this event, is
Speaker 2: he helping himself trying to one up Joe.
Speaker 3: Listen, We'll see what the actual numbers are. You know,
Speaker 3: it literally came out the day that this this fundraiser
Speaker 3: with uh with Democrats came out. Then you know, Donald
Speaker 3: Trump says, oh, we're gonna have thirty million out and
Speaker 3: maybe up to forty three million. We'll see once the
Speaker 3: FEC reports come out how much they actually uh you know,
Speaker 3: are able to raise. You know, I think a real
Speaker 3: problem for Donald Trump is he doesn't have those small
Speaker 3: dollar donors in the way that he used to that
Speaker 3: really powered his campaign, that really I think spoke to
Speaker 3: the grassroots energy of it. So he's he's got his
Speaker 3: hand out for these billionaires to really try to juice
Speaker 3: up his campaign, juice up his campaign. Coffers again, he's
Speaker 3: got all these legal problems. Some of that money that
Speaker 3: is he's quite frankly is going to go to some
Speaker 3: of these legal issues that he has. But they need
Speaker 3: some money, they need a big headline, and they need
Speaker 3: to start spending there. They don't have the kind of
Speaker 3: offices and the sort of ad reach that the Democrats
Speaker 3: have had so far. But it's early, still is going.
Speaker 3: I don't think Listen is going to be I don't
Speaker 3: think she's Greenwood.
Speaker 2: Might that might be different, Yes, I fact, I would
Speaker 2: expect that the Bible here you go exactly. Don't be
Speaker 2: a stranger. Neia Malika Henderson speaking of Lord's work. Find
Speaker 2: her column on the terminal and online. It's always a
Speaker 2: pleasure to see you, uh with us here in the
Speaker 2: Washington Bureau at Bloomberg. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Balance
Speaker 2: of Power on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube,
Speaker 2: where you can find us right now by searching Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Global News. Of course, we've been hearing a lot about
Speaker 2: the border this week. Is well, Israel and the border
Speaker 2: are following Joe Biden everywhere he goes. Just a couple
Speaker 2: of days ago, Donald Trump talking about this remember the
Speaker 2: border bloodbath, and refer to prisoners, murderers, drug dealers, mental payas,
Speaker 2: and terrorists crossing the border on the daily. And we
Speaker 2: wanted to talk about some of the rhetoric that we're
Speaker 2: hearing on both sides of this whole story with an
Speaker 2: expert who has been with us before on the program,
Speaker 2: David Leopold Immigration charit you B. Greensfelder spent time as
Speaker 2: general counsel at the American Immigration Lawyers Association. David, it's
Speaker 2: good to see you. Welcome back. We understand that the
Speaker 2: fact is, according to our at least government agencies, most
Speaker 2: people crossing the border are poor families. So we're trying
Speaker 2: to escape either poverty or violence. How does that jive
Speaker 2: with what we're hearing from the former president when it
Speaker 2: comes to prisoners, murderers, drug dealers, and mental patients.
Speaker 6: Well, the former president doesn't base anything he says in
Speaker 6: fact reality. He based it in terms of how we
Speaker 6: can red up his base with hatred and vitriol and
Speaker 6: all that sort of thing. Look, number one, you're right,
Speaker 6: these are families coming to seek a better life. I'm
Speaker 6: not judging either way, whether we're doing it the right way,
Speaker 6: but these are families coming to seek a better life
Speaker 6: in this country for they themselves and their children, like
Speaker 6: so many of our parents and grandparents and great grandparents did.
Speaker 6: So they're they're they're fulfilling what America is all about,
Speaker 6: the promise of a land of op opportunity. Sadly, the
Speaker 6: Republicans donald Trump who basically that is the Republican Party,
Speaker 6: have made this into their their issue. We're talking throwing
Speaker 6: out all kinds of incendiar statements. They're ginning up a
Speaker 6: lot of hatred. They're talking about great replacement theories, which
Speaker 6: is an anti Semitic trope. It's ugly. What's going on, Replican?
Speaker 2: So what's going to happen between now and the election? David?
Speaker 2: I wish I had more time with you, but our
Speaker 2: next minute or so, I would love for you to
Speaker 2: describe to me what the border will look like when
Speaker 2: people are making up their minds this fall. Because the
Speaker 2: borders security compromise that was put together, of course on
Speaker 2: Capitol Hill is apparently never going to see the light
Speaker 2: of day until after the election.
Speaker 6: Right right. Most remember why, and that's because Donald Trump
Speaker 6: wanted to use it as a campaign issue. He didn't
Speaker 6: want to solve the problem, wanted to yell about the problem.
Speaker 6: So that's why he ordered the people who wrote the bill,
Speaker 6: the senators who work closely with the Republican senators who
Speaker 6: work on a bipartisan basis, who wrote the border bill,
Speaker 6: an immigration which we have gone a long way towards
Speaker 6: the solving a lot of this. Donald Trump said, no,
Speaker 6: don't do it. I want to use that as a
Speaker 6: campaign issue so I can spread all my vitrail and hatred.
Speaker 6: So what's going to happen. What's going to happen, sadly,
Speaker 6: is you're going to see Donald Trump and the Republican
Speaker 6: enablers use immigration as a way to get there the
Speaker 6: base thirty percent that supports them in this country upset
Speaker 6: and angry and full of hatred.
Speaker 4: On the other side, you'll see Joe Biden talk about.
Speaker 6: It, accomplishments, and Morgon's done for the country.
Speaker 2: David Leopold with you. B Greensfelder. Thank you David for
Speaker 2: coming back to see us. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
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Speaker 7: Joe and I are wishing we could have an ear
Speaker 7: to the door in the White House right now as
Speaker 7: President Biden speaks by phone with the Israeli Prime Minister
Speaker 7: Benjamin Netanyaho. As you mentioned, Joe, it may be some
Speaker 7: time before we actually get a readout or at least
Speaker 7: lines from the White House on what exactly it is
Speaker 7: Biden and Nenyaho discussed today, but we know probably the
Speaker 7: general gist of what the messaging from the US President
Speaker 7: to the Prime Minister will be.
Speaker 2: That's for sure. You made a great point. Following what
Speaker 2: happened on Monday. The story just changed, the opbed from
Speaker 2: Jose andres the outcry that we've heard, the outrage that
Speaker 2: we've heard from progressive Democrats. This was not supposed to
Speaker 2: be an easy call, and I suspect that it is not.
Speaker 2: As we recall, and I mentioned this earlier today, that
Speaker 2: line from Joe Biden that when you're having trouble with
Speaker 2: Benjamin and Yaho, you hug him closer. And I wonder
Speaker 2: how much hugging is going on right now for two
Speaker 2: men who have been largely estranged for the past couple
Speaker 2: of months. That's why we bring in Ian Marlow for
Speaker 2: his take on this. Bloomberg Senior reporter covering diplomacy. Ian
Speaker 2: is waiting just like we are for a readout on
Speaker 2: this meeting. I wonder ian your thoughts on what might
Speaker 2: happen next and whether it leads to a change in policy.
Speaker 8: That's the big question everyone is asking right now. There's
Speaker 8: no question that what happened with the World Central Kitchen
Speaker 8: that aid workers, the seven of them who were killed
Speaker 8: in that awful strike earlier this week, has changed the
Speaker 8: sort of tone and dynamic, and I think you've seen
Speaker 8: that from the Israeli side, apologies from the very highest
Speaker 8: levels of Israeli government and the Israeli military apparatus, Biden
Speaker 8: coming out saying is outraged, Secretary of Defense Austin saying
Speaker 8: much the same. The question, though, is does this move
Speaker 8: the needle really when it comes to conditioning US military
Speaker 8: support to Israel. And at the moment, you know, everything
Speaker 8: that we see and hear from the administration seems to
Speaker 8: be that they're sort of continuing.
Speaker 9: The line here.
Speaker 8: They've called for a swift and transparent investigation in the past.
Speaker 8: In the last few months, when we've seen incidents where
Speaker 8: the US has expressed concern or even something getting close
Speaker 8: to condemnation of strikes that have killed too many civilians,
Speaker 8: or AID not getting in. We've generally heard, you know,
Speaker 8: we're concerned, we trust the Israelis to investigate, and we're
Speaker 8: sort of staying the course. What we saw the other
Speaker 8: week with the US not using their veto at the
Speaker 8: UN to knock down a United Nations resolution of the
Speaker 8: Security Council calling for an immediate ceasefire. That was sort
Speaker 8: of a sign of how strain things have gotten between
Speaker 8: the US and Israel. But doing something in at the UN,
Speaker 8: which the US immediately came out and said was non
Speaker 8: binding and stressed that it didn't really change much and
Speaker 8: actually changing you know, the hard you know impact of
Speaker 8: military support, which is you know, been.
Speaker 4: Going on for decades and a.
Speaker 8: Cornerstone of the relationship. That's a very big and different
Speaker 8: change that we're talking about.
Speaker 7: Yeah, well, Ian, we had a similar conversation yesterday on
Speaker 7: this program with Jonathan Panakoff of the Atlantic Council, and
Speaker 7: what he told us was essentially the only leverage the
Speaker 7: US has over Israel is really big ticket items. It's
Speaker 7: intelligence sharing, it's F fifteen's, it's major bombs. That is
Speaker 7: what foundationally this relationship has historically been built on. And
Speaker 7: if you were to start conditioning that kind of supply
Speaker 7: that would fundamentally change the nature of the US Israel relationship.
Speaker 7: Is the fact the matter here that there's just not
Speaker 7: really any low hanging fruit for the US to be
Speaker 7: using to influence the actions of Israel at this point.
Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, I think and Pedacov has made the
Speaker 8: point that you can't go from zero to twenty five
Speaker 8: here with this kind of military aid stuff that goes
Speaker 8: straight to zero to sixty, do you know what I mean?
Speaker 8: There's not many things left that the US can tinker with.
Speaker 8: I think US officials, you know, you know, believe that
Speaker 8: they have condition and influenced Israel over the course of
Speaker 8: the conflict.
Speaker 10: You know, they point to.
Speaker 8: Things like humanitarian aid getting through in the first place,
Speaker 8: which was never really a priority for Israel in the
Speaker 8: early days of the war. I was actually on Secretary
Speaker 8: Blincoln's trip to Israel where they engaged in something like
Speaker 8: nine hours of negotiations that went until the middle of
Speaker 8: the night, you know, trying to get the Israelis to
Speaker 8: let in or agree to let in humanitarian aid and
Speaker 8: like the early weeks of the war. So, you know,
Speaker 8: the US does believe that they have had some influence
Speaker 8: over Israel since the beginning. But if you're a critic
Speaker 8: of the administration, if you're a critic of Israel, if
Speaker 8: you're one of the protesters outside you know, some of
Speaker 8: the embassies, or you know, down in front of the
Speaker 8: State Department or the White House, you know, looking at
Speaker 8: what's happened since the war began, you know, it's kind
Speaker 8: of cold comfort. I mean, the US says that there's
Speaker 8: that helped with humanitarian aid, but then you see that
Speaker 8: there's a looming sort of man made famine, as the
Speaker 8: UN says, you know, there's now more than thirty thousand
Speaker 8: civilians killed according to the officials in the Hamas run
Speaker 8: Gaza strip, and it just kind of looks still that
Speaker 8: things have gotten worse, and so a lot of people
Speaker 8: think conditioning military aid is the only thing left. But
Speaker 8: it does really seem to be a little bit too
Speaker 8: far for this administration, and they have argued, you know,
Speaker 8: privately and publicly, that that would send a message to
Speaker 8: Hamas that the US is really sort of on the
Speaker 8: brink of abandoning Israel entirely because without US military support,
Speaker 8: you know, Israel is going to be you know, iron
Speaker 8: dome missiles to munitions they're using in Gaza. A lot
Speaker 8: of that stuff would start to fall off and suffer
Speaker 8: sort of, you know, in the New York term. And
Speaker 8: then there's the longer term threats you know, from Hasbela
Speaker 8: nanon the other Iranian proxies around the region.
Speaker 7: So there's a lot to think about there, absolutely. Ian
Speaker 7: Marlow Bloomberg, senior reporter covering Diplomacy and National Security, thank
Speaker 7: you so much, as always for joining us. He of course,
Speaker 7: has been following this story so closely, including, as he mentioned,
Speaker 7: traveling with the Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln to the region.
Speaker 7: It's worth noting Joe that it's not just the Middle
Speaker 7: East where Secretary Blincoln has been going or could very
Speaker 7: well go again in the future. He is expected to
Speaker 7: make his own trip to China a few weeks from
Speaker 7: now after Treasury Secretary Jenney Yellen.
Speaker 2: Ian was with him on the list. What is a
Speaker 2: matter of fact, and this is you know, fascinating Jennet
Speaker 2: Yellen touching down there this morning. Are we getting into
Speaker 2: this sort of good cop bad cop mode with Yellen
Speaker 2: and Blincoln? And then you know, in every quarterly call
Speaker 2: maybe with Joe Biden. I'm kind of trying to understand
Speaker 2: the roles that everyone in this administration are playing.
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's an excellent point. I would certainly expect that
Speaker 7: Janet Yellen, in her position as the Secretary of the
Speaker 7: Treasury and also as a former Federal Reserve chair, will
Speaker 7: be far more focused on economic issues than maybe some
Speaker 7: of the geopolitical issues around Taiwan or something else that
Speaker 7: the Secretary of State would probably bring. But this is
Speaker 7: part of just a rotation of cabinet secretaries talking about
Speaker 7: all of their different issues that retain to their departments
Speaker 7: as they make these visits to China. And on that note,
Speaker 7: we want to speak with someone who knows China incredibly well.
Speaker 7: Gary Locke is joining us now. He's former US Ambassador
Speaker 7: to China, also former US Secretary of Commerce. Mister Locke,
Speaker 7: thank you so much for being with us. This is,
Speaker 7: as we've mentioned, Secretary Yellen's second trip in nine months.
Speaker 7: What tangible could come out of this second visit? How
Speaker 7: much tangible ever comes out of things like this.
Speaker 9: Well, first of all, it's a pleasure to be with you,
Speaker 9: Joe and Kayley. And let me just say that this
Speaker 9: trip by Secretary Yellen is very important in continuing the
Speaker 9: progress and the momentum of talks between President Biden and
Speaker 9: President She many many months ago. We're seeing a thaw
Speaker 9: in the relationship. And it's critical because we have issues
Speaker 9: of great contention between the United States and China, but
Speaker 9: also issues and opportunities of great cooperation, whether it's working
Speaker 9: against North Korea to stop them from developing a nuclear weapon,
Speaker 9: to finding a cure for cancer or trying to address
Speaker 9: climate change. There are so many areas in which the
Speaker 9: world is expecting partnership and leadership from both the United
Speaker 9: States and China. But at the same time, we have
Speaker 9: some very difficult, very hot issues, economic issues, geopolitical issues
Speaker 9: between the United States and China. So the more dialogue
Speaker 9: there is between the top leaders, top officials of both countries,
Speaker 9: the greater the progress will be in these areas.
Speaker 2: Ambassador, we heard from Secretary Yellen on her stopover her
Speaker 2: layover in Alaska on the way to China, speaking specifically
Speaker 2: to our economic relationship, which has been evolving. Listen to
Speaker 2: what she said and we'll have you respond here.
Speaker 11: She is it's agreed that it's important to both of
Speaker 11: us that we don't want to decouple our economies. We
Speaker 11: want to continue when we think we both benefit from
Speaker 11: trade and investment, but that it needs to be in
Speaker 11: the level playing field.
Speaker 2: If that was hard to hear, Ambassador, she's talking about
Speaker 2: not decoupling as we've heard before, but that it needs
Speaker 2: to be on a level playing field. And we're hearing
Speaker 2: that this administration is carving out space to protect additional
Speaker 2: new industries like we've seen with high tech chips for instance,
Speaker 2: And I wonder to what extent you see that in
Speaker 2: fact leading to a decoupling.
Speaker 9: Well, there will be some natural decoupling from with countries
Speaker 9: all around the world and involving many different sectors, because,
Speaker 9: as the pandemic demonstrated, no country wants to be overly
Speaker 9: reliant on supplies, whether it's consumer goods, manufactured goods, or
Speaker 9: medical supplies from another country, because if there's another pandemic
Speaker 9: or even a natural disaster, a huge earthquake or political
Speaker 9: upheaval in another country, we don't want, For instance, companies
Speaker 9: in America suddenly cut off from so much of what
Speaker 9: they receive from China, which is why you're seeing a
Speaker 9: lot of companies, multinational companies, US companies, foreign companies diversifying
Speaker 9: their supply chain so that they're not so reliant on China.
Speaker 9: So much of what American consumers use every day and
Speaker 9: purchase every day in their daily lives comes from China.
Speaker 9: Whether it's microwaves, whether it's the tools that they use,
Speaker 9: clothes and shoes, barbecue sets, you name it. Much of
Speaker 9: that comes from China. So that creates jobs for the
Speaker 9: Chinese people. At the same time, China depends very much
Speaker 9: on American made goods, including our farm goods, our agricultural goods.
Speaker 9: China is America's largest agricultural export destination outside of Canada
Speaker 9: or outside of North America, and so our farmers depend
Speaker 9: on selling their soybeans and their wheat, and their apples
Speaker 9: and their cherries to China. Along with Boeing. Boeing's number
Speaker 9: one most of Boeing airplanes are sold to carriers around
Speaker 9: the world, including China. So our economies are intertwined, and
Speaker 9: which is why Secretary of Yellen is saying we don't
Speaker 9: want to complete decoupling. But companies, whether Chinese companies or
Speaker 9: American companies, are beginning to diversifly diversify their supply chain
Speaker 9: to include other parts of the world.
Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 7: As we talk about the supply that comes from China. Ambassador,
Speaker 7: one of the things we know that the Treasury Secretary
Speaker 7: is going to be talking about specifically is industrial over
Speaker 7: capacity in the way that can be manipulated in terms
Speaker 7: of subsign demand to affect pricing or access to certain
Speaker 7: things that China is producing. When she goes and airs
Speaker 7: those concerns, how likely is it that China is going
Speaker 7: to receive those and say, Okay, yes, you're right, we
Speaker 7: will be changing our behavior on that front. Isn't it
Speaker 7: to China's advantage to continue that kind of over capacity
Speaker 7: in production.
Speaker 9: Well, China is trying to jumpstart their economy coming out
Speaker 9: of the pandemic by offering subsidies and government incentives for
Speaker 9: industrial output. Certainly, they are leading the world in terms
Speaker 9: of the manufacturing of electric automobiles and the battery technology
Speaker 9: that goes with electric automobiles and buses, and also in
Speaker 9: the solar area. But if they do so by stimulating
Speaker 9: or having too much capacity, dumping their products into the world,
Speaker 9: letting the world with their products and driving prices down,
Speaker 9: that's going to actually destabilize the economies and sectors in
Speaker 9: many other countries, including here in the United States. With
Speaker 9: some of the Infrastructure and Inflation Reduction Act incentives to
Speaker 9: bring manufacturing back to America, especially in the clean energy area.
Speaker 9: That will disrupt and undercut many of the efforts that
Speaker 9: America and other countries have embarked upon, which will lead
Speaker 9: to perhaps retaliatory measures against Chinese companies or dumping, unfair subsidies, etc.
Speaker 5: Etc.
Speaker 9: And therefore that will upset the world trade relationship and
Speaker 9: they cause problems for China itself. So I think the
Speaker 9: message from Secretary Yellen is, yes, you want to be
Speaker 9: the world's leading supplier of electric automobiles and battery technology
Speaker 9: and solar equipment, but you have to do it on
Speaker 9: a level playing field, and I think that's the key
Speaker 9: message there. Otherwise there will be repercussions not just by
Speaker 9: the United States, but by other countries around the world,
Speaker 9: and that can also in the long term hurt China.
Speaker 2: Spending time here on Bloomberg TV and Radio with Gary Locke,
Speaker 2: the former US Ambassador to China, we want to let
Speaker 2: our audience know that we've just received word from the
Speaker 2: White House that President Biden's meeting with Benjamin Nettan Yahoo
Speaker 2: has come to a close. Ambassador, I know it's not
Speaker 2: what you're here to talk about today, but in our
Speaker 2: last moment. And I don't want to set you up
Speaker 2: to cut you off here, but what is China think
Speaker 2: about America's involvement in the Middle East.
Speaker 9: Well, China is watching very carefully to see how the
Speaker 9: United States responds, along with how the United States responds
Speaker 9: to Russia's invasion and military action in the Ukraine, and
Speaker 9: what the West does. Does the West really back up
Speaker 9: its allies, will it live up to its word of guarantee,
Speaker 9: because otherwise there are many countries in the South Pacific,
Speaker 9: in the Pacific Reas where the United States has pledged
Speaker 9: protection and defense, and.
Speaker 2: Beijing is watching. Ambassador, Thank you, I wish we had
Speaker 2: more time with you. Come back and talk to us again.
Speaker 2: Gary Locke of course, as well the former governor of Washington,
Speaker 2: former US Secretary of Commerce. I'm Joe Matthew with Kaylee
Speaker 2: Lines in Washington. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 7: Welcome back to Balance and Power on Bloomberg TV and
Speaker 7: Radio and Joe. The fact that it is Thursday puts
Speaker 7: us now three days out since the death of seven
Speaker 7: humanitarian aid workers working for World Central Kitchen in Gaza,
Speaker 7: killed by Israeli strikes, and just a day so we're
Speaker 7: two days out now from a primary in which voters
Speaker 7: expressed their displeasure protest voted against President Biden in a
Speaker 7: number of states, chosing uncommitted or uninstructed, as the case
Speaker 7: may be, because they are dissatisfied with the way that
Speaker 7: he has handled this conflict and perhaps his relationship with
Speaker 7: the Israeli government. And of course, speaking of the Israeli government,
Speaker 7: the President was just speaking with the Prime Minister Benjamin
Speaker 7: net Nyahu, and sources the White House say that call
Speaker 7: has now wrapped up.
Speaker 3: We just don't know what exactly was said.
Speaker 2: It's probably going to take him in it for us
Speaker 2: to figure that out. But the political stakes are not
Speaker 2: new for this president. And now that we're hearing from
Speaker 2: Biden allies, from members of the Obama administration all criticizing
Speaker 2: the policy that this administration has taken, it does make
Speaker 2: you wonder what happens from here. If this is an
Speaker 2: inflection point, what does it lead to? So we assemble
Speaker 2: our panel. Genie Shanzana was with this Democratic analyst and
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor today, joined by Chape and Fay, Republican
Speaker 2: strategist at Actum. Great to have you both back with us, Genie.
Speaker 2: Joe Biden has an opportunity here with this meeting. How
Speaker 2: does he use it to leverage this to his advantage?
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean I think we got a preview of
Speaker 10: that last night with Austin call with the Israeli Defense minister.
Speaker 10: It was apparently heated. I think Biden is going to
Speaker 10: say exactly the same thing, outrage at what happened, need
Speaker 10: to investigate, need to protect rather aid workers and civilians,
Speaker 10: need to wait to go into rafa. Politically here, I
Speaker 10: think the White House is thinking this readout will show
Speaker 10: how angry Joe Biden is by what has happened and
Speaker 10: how he is expressing that to the Prime minister. I'm
Speaker 10: not sure it is going to be effective though, and
Speaker 10: I worry about a very very mixed message that Joe
Speaker 10: Biden is sending, and I don't think it is helping
Speaker 10: him politically at home.
Speaker 7: Well, we did just get a statement from the White House. Officially,
Speaker 7: it just says President Biden spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin
Speaker 7: Netanyahu of Israel today to discuss the latest developments in
Speaker 7: Israel and Gaza. A readout of the call will be
Speaker 7: issued soon, so of course we'll provide you the details
Speaker 7: when we have them. That statement in and of itself
Speaker 7: doesn't really hint it much that went on in this conversation.
Speaker 7: But when we talk about the political difficulty of this
Speaker 7: for Biden, knowing that many in the Democratic Party chapin
Speaker 7: are unhappy with his handling of it, it's worth noting
Speaker 7: that we are starting to see really a divide in
Speaker 7: which Republicans are incredibly pro Israel, not to say that
Speaker 7: President Biden is not, but have been much more vocal
Speaker 7: about it, critical of potentially any criticisms that the Biden
Speaker 7: administration is providing to Israel. Could that also play in
Speaker 7: politically to some of these more vulnerable Republicans in places
Speaker 7: like New York and districts that Biden won. Could the
Speaker 7: Israel policy be weighing on them as well, just as
Speaker 7: we're seeing it weigh on the incumbent president.
Speaker 4: It could. And while you know, I can't speak for
Speaker 4: every district around the country. There are certain marginal districts
Speaker 4: here in New York where there are very high Jewish
Speaker 4: populations and also very high Araba Muslim populations, so it
Speaker 4: could cut both ways. I think there are probably larger
Speaker 4: Jewish populations the way Regishi team has worked out in
Speaker 4: some of these districts, uh, you know, particularly on Long
Speaker 4: Island I'm thinking about. So it certainly could have an effect.
Speaker 4: And and while I did say earlier, it it it
Speaker 4: doesn't cleanly divide on partisan lines. You're you're, you're right.
Speaker 4: Support for Israel in general has always been you know,
Speaker 4: uh more Republican issue, if you will, than Democrats, you know.
Speaker 4: And you know what what I'd like to say about
Speaker 4: this meeting is, I don't know why we're holding Israel
Speaker 4: to a standard higher than we hold ourselves and the
Speaker 4: rest of the world. Right, it was an absolute tragedy
Speaker 4: what happened, But I think it's important to remember that
Speaker 4: every tragedy that happened subsequent to October seventh, uh is
Speaker 4: because of October seventh, Right, And we've heard people talk about,
Speaker 4: you know, Israel's reaction and what you know, the president
Speaker 4: wants them to do. They have already admitted the mistake,
Speaker 4: they have apologized, they have said they would do with
Speaker 4: their own inquiry, and they've already said that they're going
Speaker 4: to adjust tactics. I don't even remember when a mayor
Speaker 4: has said that.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 4: Meanwhile, there are still hostages in Gaza, children, women, women
Speaker 4: being sexually assaulted, senior citizens. This was a terrorist attack
Speaker 4: where people parachuted in and killed and raped kids having
Speaker 4: fun at a rave. So I think it's important to
Speaker 4: remember that. And you know, the question of why are
Speaker 4: we holding Israel to a higher standard, I think we
Speaker 4: know the answer, but I'm you know, I very strongly
Speaker 4: believe that Israel has a right to defend itself just
Speaker 4: like everyone does. And one side is following, you know,
Speaker 4: trying to follow the rules of engagement in Geneva conventions,
Speaker 4: and the other side is allowed to do whatever it wants,
Speaker 4: and Israel gets criticized for it. So sorry for the
Speaker 4: little aside, but I think it's important to have that
Speaker 4: voice here in this conversation.
Speaker 2: I'm glad you said that, Chapin, and let's talk about
Speaker 2: it a little bit more, Genie. Is the US holding
Speaker 2: Israel to a higher standard when it continues to supply
Speaker 2: two thousand pound bombs.
Speaker 10: Yeah, this is the problem for Joe Biden right, just politically,
Speaker 10: is that we are hearing on the ground a mixed
Speaker 10: message from Joe Biden, and it is a problem for
Speaker 10: him because what is he saying. On the one hand,
Speaker 10: he is saying by one side of his mouth that
Speaker 10: Joe Biden, Chris Coons, Van holland others are telling him
Speaker 10: to stop the war. He has yet to take on
Speaker 10: Jose Andre's you know, suggestion that Israel deliberately targeted these
Speaker 10: seven aid workers. And on the other hand, to your point,
Speaker 10: we are still supplying arms. So just politically speaking at home,
Speaker 10: that message is ringing very hollow. We had a primary
Speaker 10: in New York yesterday. I just talked to a few people.
Speaker 10: We don't have an uncommitted option on our line, but
Speaker 10: you can leave a blank ballot, and many people I've
Speaker 10: talked to did. I'm not sure it's anywhere near what
Speaker 10: we saw in Wisconsin. But this is the political problem
Speaker 10: for Joe Biden. So even setting A's side the question
Speaker 10: of whether we are holding Israel to a higher he
Speaker 10: can't have it both ways, and this is going to
Speaker 10: be a problem for him at.
Speaker 7: Home well, and we know shape in the net and
Speaker 7: Yaho also is facing some difficulty at home. It was
Speaker 7: just this past weekend where there were thousands of protesters
Speaker 7: on the streets calling for new elections, and now Benny
Speaker 7: Ganz in the Israeli government is also calling for an
Speaker 7: early election in September. We tend to just talk about
Speaker 7: Israel here and what perhaps Israel is seen doing wrong
Speaker 7: or not doing wrong in defending itself. Is this Israel
Speaker 7: or should we really be talking about net and Yahou
Speaker 7: and this this specific Israeli government.
Speaker 4: Well, that is a phenomenal point, and I wish I
Speaker 4: had brought it up earlier. You're one hundred percent right.
Speaker 4: This is not about Palestinian people and Israeli people. This
Speaker 4: is about their two governments or whatever you want to
Speaker 4: call Hamas. Right, that's what this is about. Those are
Speaker 4: the two actors making these decisions. So I do think,
Speaker 4: you know, while I am a firm you know, support
Speaker 4: of Israel's right to defend itself, I am all for protests.
Speaker 4: I'm all for people voicing their opinions. And if niitt
Speaker 4: and I who loses, you know, that's for the Israeli
Speaker 4: people to decide. In their elections and the way they're
Speaker 4: you know, parliamentary system works. You know, if they lose
Speaker 4: confidence and there's a new election, you know, so be it.
Speaker 4: That's politics, that's democracy, and that's the way it's supposed
Speaker 4: to work. Right. And if a you know, a pro
Speaker 4: ceasefire politician is elected to lead them, then that's what
Speaker 4: they've decided. And you know, all support that decision too, right,
Speaker 4: because it's you know, it's a democratically elected government. So
Speaker 4: I do think we do need to distinguish, right, you know,
Speaker 4: I just sort of went in on defense of Israel.
Speaker 4: But that's not to say the Palistinian people are not suffering.
Speaker 4: They are certainly suffering under Hamas. And it's really Hamas
Speaker 4: is really where the eye are should be going. And
Speaker 4: I think one of the problems in this country, especially
Speaker 4: on the protests, is it's the Jewish people or Israeli
Speaker 4: people versus you know, palistin and people and their supporters.
Speaker 4: And that's really not what it should be about. It
Speaker 4: should be about the leadership and and and their government.
Speaker 4: And that happens too, right. People disparage Trump supporters, and
Speaker 4: people disparage Biden supporters. It really shouldn't be like that.
Speaker 4: But that's where sort of the world is headed.
Speaker 2: A great conversation today with our panel Chapin Fay and
Speaker 2: Genie Shanzano GENI following this call, progressive Democrats on Capitol
Speaker 2: Hill are going to listen very closely and they're going
Speaker 2: to parse the words of the readout that is forthcoming
Speaker 2: from the White House. Should conditions be attached to future
Speaker 2: weapons shipments to Israel?
Speaker 10: That's what I think we are hearing more and more.
Speaker 10: I mentioned Chris van Holland as an example of that.
Speaker 10: I think things are getting shaky in the Democratic side
Speaker 10: and the Senate on this issue. There is widespread concern,
Speaker 10: and so I do think that is what we are
Speaker 10: going to be hearing as next week rolls around, because again,
Speaker 10: you are hearing this on the ground, and I know
Speaker 10: we like to describe it as sort of a progressive
Speaker 10: left is where this is started from, and that is true,
Speaker 10: but I can tell you that it is spread like
Speaker 10: wildfire through the Democratic base. That's why Joe Biden is
Speaker 10: rightly so concerned about the politics of this and saying
Speaker 10: things like the First Lady supports a ceasefire. That is
Speaker 10: a message to tell you how he is hearing this.
Speaker 10: But again I think his messaging on this is leaving
Speaker 10: him open to some real challenges as we move into
Speaker 10: this convention this summer. If we don't see a ceasefire beforehand.
Speaker 4: Ultimately he's in an a possible position, you know, selling weapons,
Speaker 4: supporting Israel but also trying to get the worst UF.
Speaker 4: He's in a possible position.
Speaker 7: Wow, Yep, tough, indeed cheap. And Fay and Jeanie Shanzo
Speaker 7: our political panel today. Thank you both so much for
Speaker 7: joining us political discourse at its best. Joe, It's important
Speaker 7: to consider all sides of this issue, but yes, both
Speaker 7: saying that President Biden isn't a tough spot here for sure.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 7: We have the latest from the White House.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the readout we were waiting for. Kayley
Speaker 2: on the meeting between Joe Biden and Benjaminett and Yahoo
Speaker 2: I'm kind of amazed to come out this quickly, knowing
Speaker 2: how long it has taken in the past, with meetings
Speaker 2: with President she and others for instance. Look, let's cut
Speaker 2: to the chase here. This is a longer readout. The
Speaker 2: President calling for specific, as I read directly from the
Speaker 2: readout here, specific concrete and measurable steps to address civilian harm,
Speaker 2: humanitarian suffering, and the safety of aid workers, remembering, of course,
Speaker 2: the killing of those volunteers with World Central Kitchen. It
Speaker 2: goes on to write, the President made clear US policy
Speaker 2: with respect to Gaza will be determined by our assessment
Speaker 2: of Israel's immediate action on these steps. So we've set
Speaker 2: up the next chapter here ka, but it has yet
Speaker 2: to be written.
Speaker 7: Yeah, and we also understand per this readout that Biden
Speaker 7: underscored that an immediate ceasefire is essential to stabilize and
Speaker 7: improve the humanitarian situation and protect innocent civilians. President Biden,
Speaker 7: it goes on to say, made clear that the United
Speaker 7: States strongly supports Israel in the face of threats, including
Speaker 7: from Iran and the Israeli Iranians threatening the Israeli people.
Speaker 7: So still there expressing support for israel Is even as
Speaker 7: we are seeing fascinating directive essentially from the President to
Speaker 7: take the steps that the US thinks are necessary in
Speaker 7: this moment. So we want to turn now to Hadar Suskan,
Speaker 7: and he is Americans for Peace President and CEO. He
Speaker 7: also was a sergeant first class in the Israeli Defense Forces.
Speaker 7: That are great to have you with us as we're
Speaker 7: just understanding what exactly it is President Biden and Benjamin
Speaker 7: Nyahu talked about today. Will net Yahoo heed the words
Speaker 7: that Biden spoke to him when he's talking about the
Speaker 7: idea that Israel needs to make changes here? Do you
Speaker 7: have faith that those changes will happen?
Speaker 5: Well, that is the big question, And first of all,
Speaker 5: again thank you both for having me on with you today.
Speaker 5: You know, what we've been seeing in this back and
Speaker 5: forth between Natanyahu and his government and the Biden administration
Speaker 5: for months now is Biden and colleagues speaking out, pushing,
Speaker 5: urging for more restraint, calling for ceasefires, taking various steps
Speaker 5: pushing in that direction. And we've seen Nata Yahu and
Speaker 5: his government absolutely failed to heed that. And so the
Speaker 5: question at the moment is what is that next unwritten
Speaker 5: chapter that you were referencing you know, Biden and the
Speaker 5: American administration. We have leverage. It is not a theoretical
Speaker 5: it's not just asking uh, pretty please, or asking for
Speaker 5: a favor. The United States supports Israel not only politically
Speaker 5: and theoretically, but concretely. We continue as of yesterday to
Speaker 5: send arms to Israel that are being used directly in Gaza.
Speaker 5: And so the question is going to become when is
Speaker 5: President by And going to move from saying what he
Speaker 5: thinks needs to happen to taking the steps that he
Speaker 5: can take to make it.
Speaker 2: So, I wonder as we talk about this, you actually
Speaker 2: have been there in the IDF, which is known for
Speaker 2: its ability to strike with precision. We can talk to
Speaker 2: the Iranians about that. After what happened in Damascus this week,
Speaker 2: Are we to believe that the IDF is simply incapable
Speaker 2: of controlling the outcome of its strikes, or that in
Speaker 2: fact net and Yahoo and his military leaders have been indiscriminate.
Speaker 2: Can in fact we see a more responsible handling of
Speaker 2: the weapons that we're providing.
Speaker 5: There's no doubt that you could see that, and what
Speaker 5: we've seen are a range of things. So what happened
Speaker 5: with the World Central kitchen workers. You know that tragedy
Speaker 5: was three missiles fired, you know, fired at three different vehicles.
Speaker 5: Nitinano and the IDF have claimed it was a mistake,
Speaker 5: not an accident, right. They are claiming that a commander
Speaker 5: in the field did so without authorization. There's no question
Speaker 5: that he did so intentionally because he thought there was
Speaker 5: a Hamas operative there and made that decision. And we've
Speaker 5: seen that there was a report in nine to seven
Speaker 5: to two magazine about the AI software that they call Lavender,
Speaker 5: which has been used to target Hamas operatives, and the
Speaker 5: way in which Israel has for this war changed the
Speaker 5: rules of engagement, broadening them from what the Israeli military
Speaker 5: it self referred to as targeted assassinations of only senior
Speaker 5: Hamas leaders to include more junior leaders and include more
Speaker 5: leeway and leniency in what they consider the acceptable number
Speaker 5: of civilian casualties to go along with targeting Hamas targets.
Speaker 5: So there isn't a question that this is some sort
Speaker 5: of accident or something out of their control that's happened
Speaker 5: that they just don't have the capacity. This is a
Speaker 5: political policy decision about how to you know, how to
Speaker 5: make the rules and take the actions of this war,
Speaker 5: and it rests with Nitaanna.
Speaker 7: Well, when you talk about the calculation of just how
Speaker 7: many civilians they're willing to see die if it helps
Speaker 7: them accomplish their objectives, it raises the question of RAFA
Speaker 7: when we have heard from that Yahoo that they plan
Speaker 7: for the Israeli army to move more than a million
Speaker 7: Palestinians who have sought refuge in that city in southern
Speaker 7: Gaza out get them made before going in to attack
Speaker 7: the remaining Hamas battalions. There is that credible. Do you
Speaker 7: really believe the IDF can do that or are they
Speaker 7: going to do so knowing that there's a certain amount
Speaker 7: of losses that they're willing to tolerate.
Speaker 5: Well, it's very hard to imagine that they can do
Speaker 5: so in any way that we in the United States
Speaker 5: or most of the world would consider acceptable. And I
Speaker 5: will say, by the way, you know you talked about
Speaker 5: the IDF, The IDF is the arm they are the
Speaker 5: implementers of this. These are all political decisions again rest
Speaker 5: with Nintayaho, rest with the government. And you know, I
Speaker 5: think it's very hard to imagine where and how they
Speaker 5: could move those people. Nano has of course not been
Speaker 5: clear and he's intentionally not been clear about where they're
Speaker 5: going to move those people. There are people in his government,
Speaker 5: people like Smotridge and Ben Goverro, who are calling for
Speaker 5: those people to be moved to the Sinai to Egypt, which, again,
Speaker 5: moving people out of an occupied territory forcefully is a
Speaker 5: war crime. Obviously, going through and indiscriminately bombing them is
Speaker 5: a war crime as well. So it's very hard to
Speaker 5: imagine any way in which Israel could initiate a large
Speaker 5: scale invasion of Rapach that would not be disastrous. Frankly,
Speaker 5: what about.
Speaker 2: Cease fire talks? Should I even be asking you about
Speaker 2: that right now?
Speaker 5: Look, you should because we need to get there. We
Speaker 5: have to get to that. This war has gone on
Speaker 5: longer than it should have in the first place. If
Speaker 5: you look at polling among the Israeli public, remarks from
Speaker 5: most Israeli political leaders, people there believe very deeply, and
Speaker 5: I share that belief that Prime Minister in Nataannahu is
Speaker 5: continuing this war for his personal purposes, for his political viability,
Speaker 5: for the continuation of his government. He's announced that, yes,
Speaker 5: of course, there will be investigations into what happened on
Speaker 5: October seventh, into the response of the military, the response
Speaker 5: of the government. But he keeps claiming that none of
Speaker 5: that can happen during wartime, of course, so we have
Speaker 5: to wait until after the war to do that. And
Speaker 5: everyone is waiting for after the war. They're waiting for
Speaker 5: that for elections, they're waiting for that for accountability, and
Speaker 5: so he has every incentive in the world to keep
Speaker 5: this going, even when his stated war aims are clearly unachievable.
Speaker 5: The idea that one can militarily eliminate Hamas is not
Speaker 5: based in reality. Whatever damage could possibly be done, it
Speaker 5: has been done to their military capacity, has happened in
Speaker 5: six months of intense bombing, in six months of intense invasions.
Speaker 5: It is certainly not giving Israel any greater security right
Speaker 5: now to continue this. And look, the vast majority of
Speaker 5: people in Israel, and I think many people here you
Speaker 5: believe that a military response, unfortunately was necessary following Hamas's
Speaker 5: horrific attacks on October seventh. Hamas cannot be allowed to
Speaker 5: do that again. Israel has not only the right, but
Speaker 5: the fundamental responsibility of any government is to protect its people,
Speaker 5: and so they should be doing that. But they failed
Speaker 5: in that responsibility on October seventh, and they continue to
Speaker 5: fail by prosecuting a war that is not based in
Speaker 5: protecting the security of its people. It's based in the
Speaker 5: ongoing political survival of Nitaenyahu.
Speaker 7: Well to that exact point, had Aar And you make
Speaker 7: up an excellent point about how you can take out
Speaker 7: the military capacity of AMAS, But how do you defeat
Speaker 7: an ideology in and of self if this is a
Speaker 7: designated terrorist organization by many countries. But to the point
Speaker 7: about the kind of political calculation here for NETANYAHUO. We
Speaker 7: have seen just in the last twenty four hours Beni
Speaker 7: Gantz calling for early elections in September, we saw the
Speaker 7: thousands of protesters taking the streets to call for the same,
Speaker 7: or just days ago over this past weekend, How should
Speaker 7: we be thinking about how net NYAHUU is likely to
Speaker 7: respond to those kind of domestic pressures that does that
Speaker 7: only double make him double down more rather than listening
Speaker 7: perhaps to the voices of those dissenters.
Speaker 5: But you know, those protests started last year, of course,
Speaker 5: before the war with the judicial or four right, and
Speaker 5: there were hundreds of thousands of people out on the streets.
Speaker 5: They were stopped by the war, mostly because people were
Speaker 5: in the war, they were in reserve duty. It was
Speaker 5: also impossible to gather safely in large numbers. They've come back.
Speaker 5: The numbers have not quite reached the pre October levels yet,
Speaker 5: but they're getting there, and the intensity is frankly much
Speaker 5: higher because now you have dual movements of people calling
Speaker 5: for the government to prioritize the release of the hostages,
Speaker 5: which many many many people feel they have not done,
Speaker 5: and people calling for new elections, and a group that
Speaker 5: is smaller but growing also calling for the end of
Speaker 5: the war. And so those are very important the challenges.
Speaker 5: Even if you had a million people two million people
Speaker 5: out in the streets, the only way to bring down
Speaker 5: the government literally technically before its term is up is
Speaker 5: for a vote of no confidence by those in the government.
Speaker 5: So Gance and Eisenkotd his colleague, personally, I believe they
Speaker 5: shouldn't be in this government anymore. They went in under
Speaker 5: a national unity idea saying we have to help, we
Speaker 5: want to impact how this war is being waged. I
Speaker 5: don't know what they think, but I certainly don't think
Speaker 5: they've had a lot of impact on that I think
Speaker 5: they should leave the government. That's not sufficient to bring
Speaker 5: it down. They would still have sixty four members. And
Speaker 5: the challenges that those members in the government know that
Speaker 5: the likelihood is they're going to get wiped out in
Speaker 5: the next election. They're not going to be in the
Speaker 5: next government, So there's a disincentive for them to go
Speaker 5: to new elections, not only Nitayahu but all of his partners.
Speaker 5: But there are a variety of forces, some related to
Speaker 5: the war, some related to the issue of the draft
Speaker 5: of the ultra Orthodox who are currently exempt from military service,
Speaker 5: that have the potential to crack this government. And so
Speaker 5: the public pressure is very important. The international pressure is
Speaker 5: even more important. People in Israel are very finely attuned
Speaker 5: to what President Biden is saying, what Senator Schumer said,
Speaker 5: what other American political leaders here have had to say,
Speaker 5: and they understand that Nitayahu has done something or no
Speaker 5: Israeli leader has ever done before, which is really truly
Speaker 5: deeply lose the confidence of American political leadership, and that's
Speaker 5: very damaging for him.
Speaker 2: And are we were looking forward to talking with you.
Speaker 2: He's the CEO of Americans for Peace, former Sergeant first
Speaker 2: class than the idea of the Darsuskan. Many thanks thanks
Speaker 2: for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure
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