1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast well. As New York 7 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:26,479 Speaker 1: City continues to reopen, one of the key issues is 8 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: how do we ensure that it reopens and evolves on 9 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: in an equitable, wet, equitable way. And our next guest 10 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 1: probably has some thoughts on that. Brad Lander, New York 11 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 1: City control or candidate. He's also a veteran New York 12 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:42,199 Speaker 1: City Council member from Brooklyn. Brad, thank you so much 13 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:45,239 Speaker 1: for taking the time here. Um Again, as New York 14 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 1: City continues it's reopening, there are definitely some concerns here 15 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:51,760 Speaker 1: that some of the funds that have been allocated for 16 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 1: that reopening that they be allocated in an equitable way. 17 00:00:56,240 --> 00:01:01,000 Speaker 1: Give us your thoughts on how that may develop. Thank you, Paul, Matt. 18 00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 1: It's great to be with you, and I think your 19 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 1: point is a good one. We're getting this one time 20 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 1: federal funding. We've got about fourteen billion dollars coming in 21 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 1: from American Rescue Plan and carres funding UM. And there's 22 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 1: a lot of questions about it. You know, is it 23 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 1: being distributed equitably? Are we making sure that every neighborhood, 24 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 1: especially those hit hardest by COVID that had those lines 25 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:23,120 Speaker 1: outside the hospitals and food banks, UM, that we're investing 26 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 1: in small business reopening. UM. There's a lot of other 27 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:27,960 Speaker 1: questions as well. We want to make sure we're investing 28 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 1: that money and things that will help prime the economy 29 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 1: that are one time investments and go don't create recurring 30 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 1: obligations that hit our city budget in future years after 31 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 1: the federal money dries up. Yeah, I just you know, 32 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 1: the question about how you track the funds and what 33 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 1: what you do if they're not spent wisely. It just 34 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 1: seems to me, in general, and this isn't specific to 35 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 1: Brooklyn or New York. UM, we pay farm far too 36 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 1: much in taxes for what we actually get. The government 37 00:01:57,280 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 1: spends a lot more on stuff than I would if 38 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 1: I were buying that stuff. How do you deal with 39 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: that kind of spending? Run of muck? Well, look what 40 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:08,800 Speaker 1: we need new York City to be is a place 41 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 1: that people want to keep coming and creating and innovating 42 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 1: and doing business, where cultures thriving, where businesses are thriving. 43 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 1: Like that, So it makes New York City space you 44 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,640 Speaker 1: know special. And I will say, you know, Mike Bloomberg 45 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,119 Speaker 1: made clear when he was mayor, like, We're not gonna 46 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: be able to like charge you the least in taxes 47 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 1: to make New York City what it needs to be 48 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 1: to have the technology and the education and the public 49 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 1: safety um and the thriving neighborhood. So to me, it's less, 50 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 1: you know, can we can we tax people less and more? 51 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 1: Can we deliberate city that's thriving and that spreads those 52 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 1: benefits around more? Completely completely agree? It's not about I 53 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 1: completely agree with you. It's not about taxing people less. 54 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:51,079 Speaker 1: I'm willing to pay what I pay even a little more. 55 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: It's about getting value for that money, spending it in 56 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:59,679 Speaker 1: the right way. Agreed, And look, I think in that 57 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 1: can make development. We have some compelling models. The Brooklyn 58 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 1: Navy are you know, publicly owned city owned land. Working 59 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: with the Brooklyn Navy are Development Corporation creating a platform 60 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:14,639 Speaker 1: for technology and clean energy companies creating good jobs. You know, 61 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 1: I like the model of the new Cornal Tech campus 62 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:21,400 Speaker 1: on Roosevelt Island. UM. So yes, I think when we 63 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:23,960 Speaker 1: have this one time money that's a lot of it 64 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 1: is for economic reopening, there is an opportunity to track 65 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 1: it and to make sure it's going into the kinds 66 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:33,519 Speaker 1: of investments UM that do that. But right now we're 67 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 1: really not doing that at all. It's almost impossible to 68 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 1: tell where the money is going. How much is just 69 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 1: for basic public health services, how much is to help 70 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 1: our kids come back and recover socially, emotionally, academically, and 71 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:49,520 Speaker 1: how much is going into economic recovery. UM. So that 72 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 1: step one is controller. When I want to do one day, 73 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: you know, in the first hundred days, is put that 74 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 1: tracking system up. The state controllers actually put something like 75 00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 1: this up and then yeah, like use it to show 76 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 1: where we are in arn't tracking outcomes um, And then 77 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: be able to show folks like you, um, this money 78 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 1: is being spent in ways that will deliver a thriving 79 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 1: economy and a more equal one. Today I can't do that, 80 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna argue with you today. Today that 81 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 1: money is being spent fairly willy nilly without a lot 82 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 1: of strategy or a lot of good tracking. Um, it's 83 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 1: going to be on the next mayor to put a 84 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 1: budget out that really does a more strategic job as controller. 85 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 1: What I'm gonna do is shining a spotlight on it, 86 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 1: provide the data, you know, enable people to look and 87 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:33,839 Speaker 1: see is this going in the ways that we wanted to? 88 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 1: Heybra had a recent Bloomberg City Lab analysis found that 89 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 1: New York City has spent the most on overtime pay 90 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 1: uh then the five biggest cities. That also found that 91 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: the excess of overtime has led the higher pension payments 92 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 1: because they counts all the overtime pay when calculating pensions 93 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 1: UH for the New York City Police Department. What will 94 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 1: you do to change that? Yeah, I've been a longtime 95 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,719 Speaker 1: critic of this. That City Lab report, you know, really 96 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 1: put it in in black and white. But a bunch 97 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 1: of us have been saying this for a long time. Uh, 98 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 1: you know, hundreds of millions of dollars of overtime beyond 99 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 1: what was budgeted. Like everyone has just treated the budget 100 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 1: as like some numbers, It's okay if you blow through, 101 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 1: and that's not This kind of goes to what you 102 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 1: were saying before that was getting us improved public safety. 103 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:19,720 Speaker 1: You might still ask questions about it, but at the 104 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 1: moment it's not we We we spend more per capita. 105 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 1: We have, even before overtime, substantially more police per capita 106 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: than any other big city in the United States, more 107 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 1: than Lay, more than Austin, more than Houston. Um, and 108 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:39,719 Speaker 1: they don't do very much on that. Yeah, I gotta see. 109 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:42,480 Speaker 1: Last time I was up on the treat I saw 110 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 1: a group of people ride by and clearly stolen motorcycles. 111 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 1: I watched somebody doing a out in the open drug 112 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:51,479 Speaker 1: deal on the corner in the middle of the day 113 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 1: and people were shoplifting and Dwyane read there were cops 114 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: on each corner and they did nothing about any of it. 115 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:02,799 Speaker 1: How that even beyond that, as as the study showed, 116 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 1: you know, we're spending a lot on overtime, and there's 117 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 1: some real questions about is that oriented to achieving public 118 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 1: safety or is that oriented to boosting uh boosting pensions. Look, 119 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:16,159 Speaker 1: I think there are some more promising ways to invest 120 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: resources and keeping communities safe. I'm a big fan of 121 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 1: these violence interrupted programs, these pure violence programs that are 122 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: starting up in a lot of neighborhoods, and the cities 123 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: putting more money in. But we really do need to 124 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,160 Speaker 1: track what are we getting for that money. And I'd 125 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 1: give one more example. You know, I talked to a 126 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 1: lot of people who are saying, you know, the subways 127 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:36,599 Speaker 1: don't feel as safe to me. I'm more likely to 128 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:39,279 Speaker 1: see someone who seems mentally ill, who seems like they 129 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,279 Speaker 1: might be homeless. You know. But what's effective there is 130 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:45,279 Speaker 1: providing supportive housing and mental health treatments that help those 131 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 1: folks both be and live safely as opposed to having 132 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:50,720 Speaker 1: somebody pull them off the subways when they're going to 133 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:53,159 Speaker 1: get right back on tomorrow. So, you know, I think 134 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 1: we can bring a lot more data to the conversation 135 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 1: about what keeps our communities safe. Do we have data? 136 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: By the way, I'm in Berlin, Germany right now, and 137 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:04,479 Speaker 1: I noticed last night there's no traffic, or at least 138 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: nothing compared to New York. Do we have data showing 139 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: that congestion pricing can really solve this issue without being 140 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: a regressive tax on commuters where work. Yes, I mean 141 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 1: the short answer you know there is you know, look, um, 142 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 1: there's a balance. You're not going to both get dramatic 143 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 1: dramatic congestion reductions and dramatic increases in what you can 144 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 1: invest in public transit. Like those things are gonna happen 145 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 1: in some inverse relationship to each other. And but you know, 146 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 1: the examples from London are pretty good. They have somewhat 147 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 1: reduced traffic and substantially increased resources for transit investment. Um. Yeah, 148 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: And I mean it will be really important that as 149 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 1: the system gets stood up here, we are watching really 150 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 1: carefully and we're balancing between those goals. And you know, 151 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 1: we want both those things, both less traffic and more 152 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 1: money for transit. We're not probably get them, you know, 153 00:07:56,560 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 1: to get them both. And as the system gets tweaked, um, 154 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 1: it is important that we really limit exceptions or exemptions, 155 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 1: like we need a system that isn't like you know, 156 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 1: so means tested. You know that it isn't achieving its 157 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 1: broad traffic and transit goals. But I'm a longtime supporter. 158 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 1: I've been fighting for it for a couple of decades, 159 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 1: and I'm glad it's about to happen. Brad, Thank you 160 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 1: so much. Brad Lander. There control or candidate let's talk 161 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 1: about what really wealthy people are doing high work and 162 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 1: that individuals in these markets. Michael Sonnenfeldt joins us. He 163 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 1: is the chairman and the founder of Tiger twenty one. 164 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,880 Speaker 1: They've got a collective eighty five billion dollars in assets 165 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 1: under management. Michael, thanks so much for joining us. So 166 00:08:44,280 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 1: what do wealthy investors think about the stock market right now? 167 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:51,240 Speaker 1: We're covering your all time record highs and there seem 168 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 1: to be so many headwinds that mr market is just ignoring. Yeah, 169 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: thanks for having me. You know, our members are in 170 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 1: a period where they're can learned about inflation, labor costs, 171 00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 1: UH and the supply chain issues. But at the same time, 172 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:11,600 Speaker 1: over of their assets are in startups and venture capital. 173 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 1: That's an all time high, and of course the public 174 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 1: markets are the exit for those startups and so there's 175 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 1: more innovation going on. So our members are trying to 176 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 1: counteract their concerns. We only have in public equity, it's 177 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 1: our second largest allocation. But these are these are very 178 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 1: interesting times and climate and energy is first and foremost 179 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: on their mind, but labor and inflation as well. Michael, 180 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:43,680 Speaker 1: I know your members of as you mentioned entrepreneurs, all 181 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 1: walks of the business of the economy. What are you 182 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 1: hearing from them in terms of the supply chain issues 183 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 1: that we hear about, you know, seemingly here for months now, 184 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:56,959 Speaker 1: and they don't really show any signs of abating anytime soon. Sure, 185 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 1: you know, there's been a debate, uh about the FED. 186 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: I'm using an example about whether inflation is transitory or 187 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,840 Speaker 1: now in a new trend, and it's the same issue 188 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 1: on the supply chain. Is this the bull whip effect 189 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 1: of coming back to work from the pandemic new ways 190 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 1: of working, offices and so forth. Are we in a 191 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 1: fundamental shift of supply chain of epic proportion? And it's 192 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:26,120 Speaker 1: too early to tell, but anybody who discounts does it 193 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:29,320 Speaker 1: at their peril. One thing to note, though, is as 194 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 1: the economy becomes more data driven or high tech driven. Uh, 195 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 1: the supply chain issues are in the physical world, but 196 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 1: in the internet world, in the digital world, the supply 197 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 1: chain issues are a little less critical. And as these 198 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 1: issues are more higher percentage of the economy. UH. That's 199 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: why the stock market seems to still not be being 200 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:56,200 Speaker 1: destroyed by these supply chain issues. It's it's a wonder 201 00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:58,960 Speaker 1: to our members, but they're you know, they're playing on 202 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 1: a rapidly chain landscape. So what about the labor shortage? 203 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:08,680 Speaker 1: I mean, you have, um, you run businesses that that 204 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:12,680 Speaker 1: employ people. Your members run businesses that employ people. What 205 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 1: are they hearing when they try and hire or or 206 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:17,960 Speaker 1: where else are those people? What else are those people 207 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 1: doing with their time? So we now have we just 208 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 1: crossed the thousand member mark. We're in five countries and 209 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: over a hundred billion in assets, So there's a lot 210 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 1: of businesses that are members continue to own. It's sort 211 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:34,720 Speaker 1: of the all stars of entrepreneurs. And it's not just 212 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 1: the labor shortage. You know, I went into our office 213 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 1: the other day. We have thirty people. Only two are 214 00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 1: in the office. Everybody else is working from home. So 215 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:46,600 Speaker 1: in labor shortages, one of the things is how do 216 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 1: you retain key employees? How do you give them the 217 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 1: flexibility if they now want to work from home. But 218 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 1: I think, as you've mentioned earlier on the program, this 219 00:11:56,120 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 1: combination of supply chain issues and labor issues are creating 220 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 1: new challenges. Uh, and you have to be really fleet 221 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: afoot and be able to respond as a small time entrepreneur. 222 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: That's what a lot of our members are learning from 223 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 1: one another how how how to respond in these changing times. 224 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 1: You know, Michael, Prior to the pandemic, you know, one 225 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 1: could argue UM issued number one for most business people 226 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 1: was climate energy usage, you know, green energy UM And 227 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 1: maybe it's take a little bit of a you know, 228 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 1: a back burner here during a pandemic, but it's going 229 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 1: front and center now, uh in Scotland and you know 230 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: they're getting together on a global basis to discuss these issues. 231 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 1: What are your member saying about this? So climate and 232 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 1: energy are growing to be one of the number one 233 00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 1: topics that are discussed at our monthly group meetings when 234 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 1: people get together all over the world. We're organized in 235 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:58,000 Speaker 1: groups of fifteen people and have about eighties some groups 236 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:02,680 Speaker 1: today in five countries. And when they're talking about energy, 237 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 1: they're trying to it's not just the energy transition. This 238 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 1: is going to be an opportunity set if you're a 239 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 1: commodity buyer, think of all of the copper that's going 240 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 1: to be used to rewire the world. There is so 241 00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:18,440 Speaker 1: much opportunity coming from the clean energy transition. About there's 242 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 1: estimates of between two and six trillion dollars a year 243 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 1: that's going to be needed to rewire the planet, to 244 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 1: decarbonize the planet. It's probably the largest shift of investment 245 00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:36,280 Speaker 1: themes literally in the history of the markets. So you 246 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:39,720 Speaker 1: can you can be concerned about climate you have every 247 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 1: reason to be, but in terms of investing in new 248 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 1: startups that are going to decarbonize the planet, this is 249 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:50,280 Speaker 1: an opportunity set like we've never seen before. And Michael, 250 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. We always love 251 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:54,960 Speaker 1: chatting with you, getting your perspective in the perspective of 252 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 1: your members. Michael Son and Felt, chairman and founder of 253 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 1: Tiger twenty one. They have about one billion dollars in 254 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 1: assets under management. Again, Tiger twenty one is a peer 255 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 1: membership organizations for high net worth wealth creators and pre preservers, 256 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:12,720 Speaker 1: helping them to navigate the challenges and opportunities that success creates. 257 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 1: Always love getting Michael's perspective in the perspective of of 258 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 1: his members as they navigate these financial markets. And uh, 259 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 1: this reopening of the pandemic economy right Well, Matt, as 260 00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:27,720 Speaker 1: I take a look at the economic landscape out there, 261 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 1: one of the big questions I have is where are 262 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 1: all the workers? I see? Help one it signs up everywhere, 263 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 1: and then we're not coming to understanding one of the 264 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: key issues in the supply chain glitches. They can't find 265 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 1: enough truck drivers to get the stuff out of the ports. 266 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 1: So where are the workers? I think our next guest 267 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 1: may have some thoughts on that, Lisa Shallotte, Chief Investment Officer, 268 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 1: Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley. So Lisa, give me your 269 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 1: best guests to where the workers are? Good morning, everybody, um, 270 00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 1: so thanks thanks for having me. You know, as as 271 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 1: you may note, uh, you know, we put out a 272 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 1: piece on this last week where you know, we suggested 273 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 1: that the pandemic actually accelerated a bunch of structural changes 274 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 1: that were probably already afoot with regard to the labor market. 275 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 1: And and our sense is that you know, right now, 276 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 1: a lot of folks maybe underestimating number one, the portion 277 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 1: of folks that maybe retired, uh, and that retirement rate 278 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 1: was accelerated around the pandemic. Our gases as many as 279 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 1: one point five to two million additional people dropped out 280 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 1: permanently dropped out of the workforce, um because of the pandemic. 281 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 1: And they were able to do so quite frankly because 282 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 1: financial markets and their their retirement savings were covered uh 283 00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 1: so quickly and so fully. UM. A second group uh 284 00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 1: of folks, uh we think relocated and really took advantage 285 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 1: of uh the ability for many jobs to quote unquote 286 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 1: go remote or move to a hybrid model that you know, 287 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 1: really created a mismatch between you know, the supply of 288 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 1: labor and the demand the geographic demand for labor. Uh. 289 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 1: And it doesn't seem like some of those relocations are 290 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 1: are unwinding. UH. And a third pieces is what we 291 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 1: would call, uh, you know, the the retraining and re 292 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 1: positioning of of folks that you know, we're in positions 293 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 1: that were deemed quote unquote non essential. Uh. And during 294 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:37,000 Speaker 1: this last eighty four months of the pandemic, UH, those 295 00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 1: individuals uh you know said, hey, the heck with that. 296 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 1: I'm gonna you know, use this opportunity, uh, you know, 297 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 1: to to train myself to get certified, to move into 298 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 1: a role that is considered more essential and more stable. UM. 299 00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 1: And I'm not going to go back to some of 300 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 1: those those service uh jobs that that carry high stress 301 00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 1: and and high public health risk. I can tell you 302 00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 1: a couple of those hit home for me. My parents 303 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 1: both had been wary of retiring, um, you know, for 304 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:14,199 Speaker 1: financial reasons, but they've just done so well recently in 305 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 1: markets that they've decided to pull the trigger this year. 306 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 1: So uh. And then in terms of the retraining element, 307 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 1: we've been we we talked so much about truckers on 308 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 1: this show, but I have been looking seriously into what 309 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:31,160 Speaker 1: does it take to get you know, your long haul license, 310 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:35,920 Speaker 1: your cd L and get a job, um, not just 311 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:40,080 Speaker 1: like local delivery job, but are real you know, follow 312 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 1: that white line kind of job across the country. It's 313 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 1: not easy, it's really difficult. It takes a lot of time. 314 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:49,679 Speaker 1: And obviously to make the big money you need a 315 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 1: lot of experience, So retraining takes a while. Uh. You know, 316 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:56,720 Speaker 1: in light of this, Lisa, why are we still at 317 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:59,640 Speaker 1: all time highs? We got this supply chain crisis, there's 318 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 1: a labor shortage, everyone's talking about real inflation, and yet 319 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:10,160 Speaker 1: we're at one what's going on? Yeah? Look, I think 320 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:13,360 Speaker 1: if there's two you know, fundamental things. One, we know 321 00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 1: that this is a market that continues to be a 322 00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 1: wash in excess liquidity. Um. You know, while a couple 323 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 1: of of the measures that we use to look at 324 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 1: financial conditions have begun to suggest a little bit of tightening. Uh, 325 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:32,199 Speaker 1: you know it maybe at the ultra front end of 326 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 1: the curve. Um. The reality is is that there's still 327 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 1: a ton of cash out there. You know, we Morgan 328 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:41,159 Speaker 1: Stanley has done some work in the last you know, 329 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 1: two weeks talking about the role of the individual investor 330 00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:48,359 Speaker 1: UM you know who's been you know, still has seems 331 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:52,920 Speaker 1: to have access to ample balance sheet reserves to put 332 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 1: into the market. That that is a segment that is 333 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,359 Speaker 1: quote unquote buying the dip. And and so we're we 334 00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:01,400 Speaker 1: have a lot of liquidity and they still very much 335 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,440 Speaker 1: eager and willing to participate in this market. I think 336 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,440 Speaker 1: the second thing is is that despite the headlines and 337 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:12,719 Speaker 1: despite uh you know, downgrades and GDP growth for Q three, 338 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:17,400 Speaker 1: despite the delta variant, so far, you know, corporate earnings 339 00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 1: are holding up. Now. Uh, you know, our measures that 340 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:26,560 Speaker 1: look at forward earnings revisions, uh say that that the 341 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,680 Speaker 1: breadth of those earnings revisions has begun to roll over. 342 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 1: That these topics of inflation and input costs and lack 343 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 1: of labor and and and supply chain are going to 344 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 1: be a factor. But it doesn't seem that thus far, 345 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:44,679 Speaker 1: and the reports that that we're hearing they are a 346 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 1: big enough factor to to throw water on this market. 347 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,679 Speaker 1: So real couping least at thirty seconds. Where are you 348 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 1: telling clients to go right now? Yeah, so, look, we 349 00:19:55,200 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 1: like the cyclical story in in Q four and two. Um, 350 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 1: so we're buying financials, we're buying industrials, we're buying materials, 351 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 1: we're buying energy. We believe in in uh continued you know, 352 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 1: capax and investment cycle. We believe in the housing cycle. 353 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,920 Speaker 1: So so those cyclical oriented issues which tend to still 354 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 1: have a little bit better valuation support than maybe uh, 355 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 1: you know some of the the uh the quote unquote 356 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 1: work from home or or evergreen stocks that have dominated 357 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:34,520 Speaker 1: the indexes is where we're focusing. Lisa, thanks so much 358 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:36,440 Speaker 1: for your time. Always appreciate getting a few minutes. If e. 359 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:41,400 Speaker 1: Lisa's Chalote, chief investment Officer for Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley. 360 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:48,880 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. Let's get back to the markets right now. 361 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:51,719 Speaker 1: We can do a car talk segment. Yeah, I'm up, 362 00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,040 Speaker 1: but right now, let's get to uh. We have a 363 00:20:55,040 --> 00:21:00,280 Speaker 1: guest who has I think a pretty um, a pretty 364 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:05,880 Speaker 1: out of consensus view. Well maybe not founder Chief executive 365 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 1: officer and portfolio manager at Infrastructure Capital Advisors. And I've 366 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:15,120 Speaker 1: heard other people suggest that we could be going into 367 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:19,239 Speaker 1: a recession JA because the consumer confidence numbers have just 368 00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:21,960 Speaker 1: fallen off a cliff and you don't typically see that 369 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 1: kind of drop without a recession. But you think the 370 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 1: FED will be to blame when we finally get there. Why. 371 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,119 Speaker 1: First of all, thanks Paul and not for having me 372 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 1: on again. Well, we think that the FED has lost 373 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 1: control of inflation. Specifically, they increased the monetary based by 374 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 1: E three since the beginning of pandemic and um that 375 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:55,120 Speaker 1: has had a huge impact on housing. They've lowered mortgage 376 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:59,080 Speaker 1: rates to an all time low, and now housing prices 377 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 1: are up and rents are up ten So we see 378 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,640 Speaker 1: that we think that the run rate inflation level is ten, 379 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,960 Speaker 1: which sounds pretty radical, but I guess it seems today 380 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:15,879 Speaker 1: conservative because there was a tweetum that we're in a 381 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,040 Speaker 1: hyper inflation, which we definitely think we're not. That hyper inflation, 382 00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 1: by the way, is commonly defined as ten percent per month, 383 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:27,879 Speaker 1: and we're talking ten percent run rate per year, so 384 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,560 Speaker 1: we're an order of magnitude and we're conservative than that, 385 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 1: but we do it would still be the highest we've 386 00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:37,320 Speaker 1: seen since you know, the early eighties, right, correct. Well, 387 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 1: there was one important thing, and I would urge all 388 00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:43,359 Speaker 1: listeners to focus on the housing sector because it's been 389 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,840 Speaker 1: involved in eleven out of the eleven, the last eleven 390 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 1: recessions since World War Two. But the reason in my opinion, 391 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 1: that the FED got away with quantitative easing after the 392 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 1: financial crisis is we had four million extra homes. We 393 00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,920 Speaker 1: had a huge took five years to work this off, 394 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:05,800 Speaker 1: so they got away with increasing the monetary base at 395 00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:10,000 Speaker 1: similar percentages. But this time we have really the opposite 396 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 1: where we have kind of normal construction and no excess housing. 397 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:17,119 Speaker 1: So that's why you're seeing this accelerate inflation. And also 398 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:21,800 Speaker 1: energy has its own separate dynamics. Natural gas is trading 399 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 1: at the equivalent oil equivalent of hyderen eighty dollars of barrel, 400 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,159 Speaker 1: and so that's when we mark to market on a 401 00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 1: run rate basis the BLS estimates of five point four, 402 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,320 Speaker 1: we're getting right around ken and it can be worse 403 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:39,040 Speaker 1: than Phoenix that their rents are up twenty three and 404 00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,000 Speaker 1: a half percent, so it would be more like thirteen 405 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:45,919 Speaker 1: in Phoenix. How much of these inflationary issues j do 406 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:49,359 Speaker 1: you believe our transitory as a photo reserve continues to 407 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 1: claim or and how much of them are are you know, 408 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 1: maybe a little bit longer term. Well, the best way 409 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 1: to frame that debate is to recognize that most of 410 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:02,680 Speaker 1: the FEDS is a Keynesians neo Kansians, so they tend 411 00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 1: to focus on cost push push inflation. So some of 412 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:12,680 Speaker 1: these um, you know, production issues. Monitorists like Freeman would 413 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,960 Speaker 1: call it too many dollars chasing too few goods. So 414 00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 1: that's kind of the debate that's going, that's raging, but 415 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:25,680 Speaker 1: we've never had And also the magnitude you know, three trillion, 416 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 1: I mean three trillion dollars of extra money in the system. 417 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 1: So I would argue that the recent data means that 418 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:38,439 Speaker 1: the monitoris which is right now numbers about one on 419 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:43,119 Speaker 1: the FED, which would be Bullard are winning the debate. Um, 420 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,359 Speaker 1: what do you do as an investor? You're a portfolio manager, 421 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 1: so it's not just about these forecasts or talking about 422 00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 1: what could happen. You've got to put your money in 423 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,480 Speaker 1: the right place. Um, So you don't so you hopefully 424 00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,080 Speaker 1: make more than your benchmark and definitely don't want to 425 00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:01,120 Speaker 1: be losing any where do you put it? Well, we 426 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,960 Speaker 1: UM have funds that are focused on preferred stock, so 427 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 1: we have tilted that away from the low spread preferreds 428 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,520 Speaker 1: and into the higher spread, which happened to be also 429 00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:18,240 Speaker 1: inflation protected, so reads and pipelines and real assets utilities, 430 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 1: So we think that uh, those funds should do well 431 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:25,359 Speaker 1: if we're correct about rising inflation or environment. And then 432 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 1: we also run a pipeline e t F, so we're 433 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:33,000 Speaker 1: kind of just fortunate that energy and real assets are 434 00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:36,680 Speaker 1: likely to continue to appreciate, So it's it's a little 435 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:38,480 Speaker 1: bit easier for us to do that. We don't run 436 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 1: a multi strategy equity fund where we have to cell 437 00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 1: tech and buy energy what other other rotations would have. 438 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,640 Speaker 1: I do think the next year will be adult swim 439 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:53,960 Speaker 1: for investors, and being more defensive and being in yield 440 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,880 Speaker 1: stocks like read, utilities, preferred is a good way to play. 441 00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,560 Speaker 1: And even if you miss out on a few rallies 442 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,399 Speaker 1: or continued tech rally, you still get paid to wade. 443 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 1: So I think next year will be better to be defensive. Jay, 444 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate chatting with you. 445 00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:12,040 Speaker 1: Some I would call them as matsages. Some some out 446 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:16,840 Speaker 1: of consensus calls here on the economy, although Danny Blanchler 447 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:18,520 Speaker 1: was saying the same thing to it a couple of 448 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,800 Speaker 1: weeks ago. Okay, good for Danny. Uh Jay half Field, founder, 449 00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:26,480 Speaker 1: chief executive officer and portfolio manager for Infrastructure Capital Advisors 450 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 1: joining us on the phone from New York City. He 451 00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,840 Speaker 1: believes that there is a fifty chance of recession in 452 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:39,520 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. 453 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:43,119 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts 454 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:47,120 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm 455 00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:51,199 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller three. Put on fal Sweeney 456 00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,879 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney before the podcast. You 457 00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,520 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.